Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Survivor Pool | 10/21/25 | Week 7 Recap & Strategy Review

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NFL Survivor Pool | 10/21/25 | Week 7 Recap & Strategy Review · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear the lift.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: What is going on? Everyone? This is sheets and welcome
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: to the recap of week seven of the Survivor Pool experience,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: where we go over what we thought about for last week. Uh,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: talk about what worked, what didn't work, whether it be
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: results or answer or not, things like that. Uh, and
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: then tomorrow we're going to proceed with our analysis of
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: week one, week eight. Somehow we're at week eight. So
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: again it's a couple of announcements again. You know, for
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: those who are watching us for free, you know, if
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: you want to subscribe and get access to the premium show, Uh,
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: feel free to do that. Wait, what's going on over there?
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: You just have to close this real quick? Where is
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: that one second? We're getting what we're doing, We're getting.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: Hold on a second there. In addition to the Survivor
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: pool stuff, you also, I think in access to the
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: March madness stuff, which is a whole other animal to
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: be able to to win those pools. The march Madness
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: survivor is really one that you know, challenges your brain
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: like in a way unlike any contest. And we'll get
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: to that later on. The Other thing is that as
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: we get down into the later weeks, you'll find that
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: people get knocked out, so there'll be less people here,
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: you know, and less people that want info. But on
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: the other hand, the people that are here are really
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: in a position to make a decent amount of money,
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: so the information is just that much more valuable. So
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: even if you haven't gotten in there yet, you know,
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: if you feel as though, number one, you need some
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: help with this year's stuff, it certainly will help. And
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: more to the point where you're still going to be
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: teaching these theories and this process of how to how
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: to handle this stuff. And I already see within the
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: Discord channel people talking about Survivor in a way that
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: they really weren't in the past. So it's making me
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: happy that I'm able to help help people learn how
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: to do this stuff. So anyway, let's talk about week seven,
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: and this is the custom tool up here, and it's
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: going to update for week eight probably if it didn't already,
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: probably like an hour from now, very latest overnight. But
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: I'm glad that we kind of kept last week's up
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: here first because we're doing the recap show. We want
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: to see what we looked at. So the first thing
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: we did was we made some adjustments to the EV's
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: not the EV's but to the to the popularity projections
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: on a couple of teams, like they had denver at
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: only three percent, so there would be more than that,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: so we made it seven. We reduced Kansas City is
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: from forty two down to thirty nine. And again with
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: this tool, you can feel free to make those changes
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: and then recalculate the EV. And when we saw this,
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: we saw that there were four teams that had plus EV,
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: and you know, you had to kind of treat all
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: of them very very similarly, you know, because they were
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: all good EV. So you had to compare which of
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: them had future value you know, you had to worry
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: about and which you know, you didn't have to worry
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: too much about. And we also separated single pitch from
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: double pits and things like that. So the the first
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: thing we looked at was was was Green Bay and
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: green Bay they had a pretty good you know, they
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: had a good EV one point one. But again it's
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: each each entry is only worth on average about four
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: times the original, so it's not that big of a
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: deal to snap up the EV unless you are really
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: gonna you know, minimize future value also, so when you
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: have a one point one team like green Bay, as
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: we talked about, you really need like I mean, it's
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: nice to play them, but it would be nice if
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: there weren't other great options and green Bay. You know,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: again this Mapple update probably the next day or so,
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: but green Bay is one of the top two options
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: in week nine, as we talked about, not to mention,
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: uh maybe some other weeks. So green Bay, forget minus seven,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: they're probably minus fourteen there. So it's not just they're
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: good value in week ninee that they're like insane value
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: in week nine, okay, but it's not just that all
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: these other weeks, like week eleven, they could be popped
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: in valuable, week twelve, they can be value, even week
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: fourteen they can be valuable, et cetera. So I didn't
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: like green Bay in either singles or doubles. When I
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: say singles are doubles, I mean pools that require doubles eventually.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: But I did say you're actually in the discord later
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: that if you were in kind of one of those
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: revival pools specifically for like single entry, I didn't think
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: green Bay was that bad to start off with. So
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: if you played like one of those revival pools. You
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: played Green Bay that wasn't beat. The other one we
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: talked about was Kansas City. We'll get back to Denver
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: in a second. But Kansas City I thought was perfectly
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: reasonable to play in single pick pools. Okay, they had
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: and you know, they obviously have a good amount of
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: future value, but most of their future value, as I was,
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: you know, analyzing it, was in the later weeks. Okay,
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: like that after gonna be ten point favorita of a
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: week twelve, we'll get to week eight in a minute,
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: but like the majority of their future value is out
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: in week sixteen. So in these bigger single pick pools,
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: I really didn't mind playing Kansas City there. So we
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: did like that. But but as far as doubles go,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: I thought it was a pretty bad idea to play
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Kansas City. So we didn't recommend Kansas City at all
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: in doubles because again, like it's one thing that only
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: have them available in week sixteen for singles, but week
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: sixteen and these big pools where you're gonna certainly have
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: to make picks in week sixteen, it's very very important
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: to have the team like Kansas City available for that.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: So we didn't want any Kansas City over there. So
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Denver was a very interesting case. Okay, So Denver, I thought,
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: we're just kind of okay in singles, right, And the
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: reason why I thought they were just okay in singles
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: is they really only had one one spot to play them,
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: and that was Week ten. But the problem is is
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: that the week ten spot is going to be so good, okay,
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: in a week that's going to be really tough. I
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: thought it was kind of important in singles to save
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: them for week ten. Okay, So in single picks I
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: didn't really like. I didn't really like them with too much. Now,
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: with respect to other teams in single pick pools, I
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: really didn't like anybody else. I thought it was Kansas
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: City and that was pretty much all I liked. Maybe
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: a little bit of Green Bay, New England's. You know,
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: these guys are low EV teams. So if you have
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: these low EV teams in the single pick pools, I mean,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: you really need to have zero future value for us
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: to play them in single picks. So Pittsburgh play spots.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: We'll get to that. New England plenty of spots, or
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: even Seattle has some spots. So there's just no need
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: to go down here in single pick pools, so though
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: Kansas City was perfectly okay. So in doubles though, okay,
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: I thought that Denver was a very very strong play
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: because okay, yes they are very they are a good
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: play in week ten, but there's no doubles in week ten, okay,
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: so they have very little if any future value in
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: the double pick weeks. So that's why I thought that
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: of all these high EV teams, I thought Denver was
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: actually very very reasonable and probably the best in doubles.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: We'll get to what happened there in a minute. And
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: then the other thing we talked about with the other
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: the low future value teams, Well, first of all, let's
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: let's talk about Detroit. Detroit has incredible spots coming up,
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: not to mention week twelve, which is they're gonna be
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: a huge favorite over the Jets, and what is this
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: going to be? Fifteen? Maybe more considering what's going on
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: with the Jets right now. That's Baltimore, I meant in
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: but Detroit is no Detroit is playing the Giants, so
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: it's not gonna be as bad, but there's still gonna
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: be minus twelve there, so that's gonna be a pretty
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: smash type play. They could be a smash in sixteen.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: It's all kinds of opportunities to play Detroit, so not
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: to mention even with nine as a possibility. So we
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: thought Detroit was no good in either singles or doubles.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: So the teams the low future value were not even
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: we thought were the low future value teams or the
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: low EV teams were Pittsburgh, New England's, Chicago Okay, and
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: the subdegree Seattle. And the way I rank them was
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: kind of like from the bottom up, I thought knew
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: England was the worst of those, because again, when you're
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: when you're giving up EV, you got to get something
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: for that. And when you're giving up EV of a
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: team like Denver for example, I mean and going down
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: to like point nine point eight nine or a lot
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: of stuff you really need, like a very very low
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: future value path. And New England's were the worst of
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: all of these, because you know they in week eleven
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: have this super smashed spot against the Jets. Now I
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: tempered it a little bit because it depended on what
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: pool you're in, because if you're in say the ship
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: at Nation Pool and some of the others where you
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: don't have doubles until week twelve. Then it's not as
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: bad to burn New England, okay, but in the splash
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: pools where your doubles in week eleven, it is really
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: bad to burn eleven. So I didn't think New Wing
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: was a complete toss out, but I thought they were
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: the worst of those single of those double pick uh
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: uh selections. The next one I thought was I thought,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: actually Pittsburgh and Chicago were pretty close, okay. So again
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: the analysis was this, Chicago certainly had the worst worst
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: ev okay, but Chicago, in my opinion, had much much
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: less future value okay then than than Pittsburgh. Chicago. The
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: only time you're really could justify playing them as maybe
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: week fifteen, okay, and that is a double pick week,
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: so it's not that great to have burned them. So Chicago,
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: I thought, was very very strong. And then I also
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: thought that Pittsburgh was pretty strong. And again the reason
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: for them is they do have some future value. So
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: like alik eleven home against Cincinnati, you know, not bad,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: that's certainly an okay spot. As it turns out, Week
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: fifteen and Pittsburgh home in this Miami that could be
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: a good spot. So all three of these teams like Pittsburgh,
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: New England, and Chicago. I mean I felt they all
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: had some spots, which is why I did rate Denver
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: ahead of it. Okay, so I had Denver and then
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: close behind kind of like the sum of like Pittsburgh, Chicago,
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: and New England. And I figured that Seattle, if you
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: had them available still, you're probably better to hold them
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: until week what was the week eleven? There was some
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: week where you could have played Seattle with kind of effects. Yeah,
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: week ten actually, So okay, this one was talking about
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: with week ten, So week ten, if you didn't have
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: the Broncos or if you yeah, if you already burned
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: the Broncos, you're gonna need somebody in week ten. And
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: I felt that Seattle was a good option in week ten.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: So if you had Seattle available but you didn't have
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: the Broncos, then I would save Seattle and then go
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: ahead and play you know, and then play Seattle in
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: the week ten. But if you have the Broncos available,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: you can go ahead and play Seattle now and then
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: and then save Denver for week ten. So that was
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: that was definitely a point of of of that contention,
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: but a discussion. Okay, so, uh, the other team that
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: people talked about was Cleveland, and it was it was
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: definitely a very you know know, aggressive speculative play, specifically
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: in pools with a zillion people in it with doubles.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: I just didn't think that it was worth dropping all
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: the way to point eight four EV to get there,
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: especially when you had other options. So that was the
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: analysis heading into last week, and now we could talk
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: about results a little bit. So for those of you
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: that have never played Survivor before and this is your
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: first experience, I don't know whether you're you're you're mad
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: at Shipping Nation or mad at me for sucking you
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: into this, or or psyched about it, because I mean
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: it's really taxing, you know, to sweat these teams, especially
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: when you put all this work into it. One loss
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: knocks you out. So this Denver thing was like a
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: a like a roller coaster of epic proportions. You know.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: They were basically out of the game forever. They showed
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: no signs of life and the Giants were We're just
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: basically stomping on them, and then they head in the
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: fourth quarter. It was like over. They had like I
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: think one percent winning chances if that, and then they
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: came just storming back through a combination of events. I mean, listen,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: we talked about the Arizona game from a couple of
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: weeks ago. That was different because they have thirty percent
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: of the people on them Wherever, I mean, Denver was
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: a little lower owned, but I know a lot of
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: us had them right. So they came storming all the
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: way back and they pulled off the miracle comeback, only
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: to have the Giants take it back from them in
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: the last minute, thanks in large part to a pass
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: interference call, only to have Denver re suck out on
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: them at the last after a missed extra point, et cetera,
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: et cetera. So, boy, oh boy, I don't know if
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: you guys have it in you for that type of cardiology.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: That was That was the big sweat. Everything else like
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: was easy, easy, breezy. Actually, I should say Green Bay
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: was was a struggle if you played them. The Kansas
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: City wipe out Pittsburgh, Oh so, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh on Thursday.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: That was the That was the rough one, you know,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: because that ended up, you know, on the numbers as
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: the best play of the mall and it ended up
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: only four percent of the people took Pittsburgh, making them
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: probably the best play of them all, if you know,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: if we knew what the ownership was. But they ended
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: up losing at the end like everything, like everybody else.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: But New England was easy, Chicago was out of eazy Cleveland.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: They were cake walk So what happened is is very
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: few people, if anything, got knocked out, but everybody was
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: able to you know, to position themselves and to reposition
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: themselves and to shuffle around. And all these people that
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: took Kansas City, yeah they had a nice easy time
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: of it. But now you know, when you play Kansas City,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: you're hoping someone else gets not and nobody else got
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: knock out. So now they burned Kansas City for and
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: we have too at the single entries for no compensation. Right,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: you didn't go up like your EV going into the
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: game was like one point one, and your actual EV
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: was like was like one. You know what I mean,
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: you you basically didn't even realize any of that EV
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: even with the win, so very you know, very very
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: I would say bad result. It's always a good result
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: when you win. But now you've burned Kansas City and
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: you have to and you have to, uh, you have
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: to struggle. Now you don't have to struggle if you've
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: already mapped and you've already planned for these things. And
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: we're gonna talk about that when we go over this tomorrow.
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: But it's it's a it's an interesting way to assess
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: how you did when everybody survives. I mean, when everybody survives. Basically,
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: whoever took the team with the lowest future value ended
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: up winning. So whoever took Cleveland gain the most, whoever
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: took I guess, shit, I go maybe gain the second most,
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: and then I guess I'd have to say that Ver
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: to Denver Gay the third most, because I still think
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: that that's really the only spot for them in week ten.
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: We'll get there, but week ten is an important spot
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: for them, But that's pretty much the only time, not
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: the only time, but I'm guessing is one of the
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: only times you're gonna be able to use them. Maybe
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: week sixteen, you know, maybe you know that's but but
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: you know that's that way down the road. Who knows
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: what Jacksonville is going to be, but we'll we'll see.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: So that's pretty much all that I have as far
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: as the recap goes by the time you know, we
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: start this tomorrow, the tool will updated. Let me see
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: if it's updated. Now, oh, you know what I have
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: the wrong to So you guys know I have the
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: wrong I have my my off site one. But this
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: is what it would look like on the on the
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: ship and Nation tool. It's the same thing. Let's see. Yeah,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: it didn't update yet. Let's see. No, it did not update.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: It looks like it said it updated, but it is
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: not updated yet, so we will it will update soon.
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: Uh okay, that is going to do it. Everybody. I
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: will see you guys tomorrow. Good luck.