Latest / Closing Market Report / Apr 16 | Closing Market Report

Transcript

Apr 16 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260416 Todd Gleason: From the land grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 16th day of April, 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett. He's at agmarket.net. We'll hear again from Aaron Hager about using metribuzin on group 15 resistant waterhemp, or those that aren't controlling it season-long. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast with Mike Tannura from T-Storm Weather. He has a really in-depth look at the issues in the winter wheat growing regions of the United States, and an update on South America too, on this Thursday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio from the farming world online on demand at willag.org. Todd Gleason: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. May corn for the day settled at $4.48 and a half cents, down two and three quarters. July, $4.57 and three quarters, two and three quarters lower. And December at $4.76 and three quarters, down a penny and a quarter. May beans, three and a quarter lower. The settlement price today at $11.63 and three quarters of a cent. July at $11.80 and a half, down two and three quarters. And November beans, up a penny and a half for that contract at $11.56 even. Bean meal futures, $1.70 lower. The bean oil up $1.73. Wheat futures in the soft red, four and three quarters higher at $6.06 and a half cents a bushel. The hard red July at $6.55. Also the harvest month up 16 and a half cents. Live cattle futures down $3.45 for the day. Feeders off $3.67 and a half. And the lean hogs, 27 and a half cents lower. 01:59 Ag Markets with Matt Bennett Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett from agmarket.net now joins us to take a look at the market. Let's say hi, Matt. Thanks for being with us. You're not in the field today? Matt Bennett: No, we had enough rain to chase us out. Anywhere from three quarters of an inch to an inch about everywhere we farm. So, had a heck of a run before that though. So, you know, going to wait it out and see what happens over the weekend. Todd Gleason: Kind of cold over the weekend. I take it you probably have some beans in the ground and maybe some corn, maybe not? Matt Bennett: Yeah, I mean, we actually planted all of our beans. Got those done, kind of held off to see what was going to happen with the weather. Really didn't want to plant corn in front of a cold rain. So we just decided to give it a little bit of time. Everything was working so good, we hated to sit. But we sat there on Wednesday just to kind of wait and see what happens. So we'll see how much rain we get over the weekend, probably get out to planting corn next week if the weather cooperates. Todd Gleason: You clearly in your part of the world are not the only farmer that's going, certainly across the Midwest either. The markets have done what during this timeframe over the last week? Matt Bennett: You know, the corn market's been kind of slow. Yesterday, of course on Wednesday, had a nice run up. Came in today, was hoping to get a little follow-through, but just couldn't really find that. And so the market looks like more of a consolidation type thing as far as corn is concerned. You know, old crop taking a little bit of pressure here on Thursday. But, you know, overall this bean market really has struggled to put anything together. It's about as sideways as we've seen this market in a long time. So, right now, I think the market's just kind of in a wait and see type mode. Obviously a lot of weather issues throughout the Corn Belt. A lot of folks sitting right now, so it's probably premature for any sort of weather rally with regards to that, but I do think the market's going to pay attention if we're in the same boat here in the next couple weeks. Todd Gleason: Fundamentals changed at all in the last several days? As it relates to the Iran war, that's really not quite a fundamental. Maybe nitrogen is, because there are some tenders out of India into the United States that could cause some issues for those who still need to put on nitrogen. Matt Bennett: Yeah, I mean, there's definitely some issues there. It's problematic, you know, and I'd say especially in an area if you're pushed back, for instance. If you're cold, if you're wet, you know, and some of these folks farther north you get are in that situation, and I think some of those same folks are the ones that actually haven't, oh I don't know, gotten all their fertilizer booked. And so I think it's a small percentage, but at the same time, any percentage is maybe too much whenever you're looking at this kind of demand for corn. So, you know, if you would pull back on acres, I think the market's going to pay very close attention. Right now, I still feel like the upside for acreage is probably got more to do with soybeans than what it does corn. I would assume that whenever we get around to June, if this weather doesn't change soon, coupled with the fact that fertilizer is excessively expensive, I've got to think we're going to lose a fair amount of corn acres here. Todd Gleason: So we'll be able to watch planting rate every Monday on the release from USDA of the Crop Progress Report. USDA probably can use it to figure how quickly farmers are done planting, but it's not very good at predicting what acreage would look like. So we'll have to wait and see how that turns out in the June acreage report, as opposed to any time sooner than that. What else have you been watching on the world market at this time? Matt Bennett: Yeah, I mean, there's no doubt there's just a lot of volatility here as far as the world news goes. Whatever we go to bed knowing, sometimes in the morning we get up and it's different. So, you know, you looked at crude oil today, you know, trading almost $4 higher. You know, we were over $4 at one point. And so it's a pretty interesting move. And meanwhile the dollar, you know, actually up just a little bit today. And those things don't always move together. You know, and so I do think that there's a lot to consider here as a grower. I'd say longer term, it is concerning to me, Todd. Whenever the president says we should expect high energy prices out through fall, that tells me that the fertilizer situation may not get any better. So, I believe you're going to have to see December '27 corn, you know, a little bit higher price than what we're currently looking at today, shy of $4.90. It just doesn't work with $1100 or $1200 anhydrous. And right now that's what a lot of people are looking at for this year. I don't think that's going to get any cheaper if fuel doesn't get any cheaper. Todd Gleason: On that note, when you look out to that 2027 growing season, are you simply standing aside or do you have ways to protect the market and prices and profitability for corn and soybeans for that year? Matt Bennett: You know, I do think if a person wanted to hedge some corn at $4.90, it's not a terrible idea on a portion, but if I'm doing that on any significant amount, I'm certainly going to step in and own some calls. But I'd probably own the calls maybe on this year's crop. I don't want to go all the way out there and spend the kind of time and money that it's going to take to own those calls. So I'd like to have something with some flexibility, you know, because if this situation lasts much longer and you continue to look at $90 to $100 crude over the past, you've typically seen corn catch up as far as trading the normal ratio. And since ethanol, our normal ratio from crude to corn has been running around 15 and a half to 1. So it's pretty easy math, at $90-plus dollar crude, you know, the corn market could stand to rally substantially. So, you know, I don't want to be in a position to lock in a whole lot of corn without knowing what my input costs are going to be. That's the biggest issue. And it's a very tricky deal to navigate. So I would urge extreme caution for anybody trying to maybe lock in one side of that without being able to lock in the other. Todd Gleason: Thank you much, and be safe in the field. Matt Bennett: Absolutely. Thank you. Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett is with agmarket.net. 08:03 WILLAg News | SAF Market Development & Year-Round E15 Todd Gleason: In today's agricultural news, we'll start with SAF or sustainable aviation fuel. Work continues to make the fuel more resilient for the long term. Lorrie Boyer has more. Lorrie Boyer: The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Coalition represents more than 50 members across the entire value chain, including farmers, producers, and industry partners. Executive Director Alison Graab explains how the coalition is working to advance sustainable aviation fuel through collaboration, innovation, and market development. Alison Graab: A large part of our work is focused on federal advocacy for SAF and ensuring that we have the right policies in place to support SAF production in the United States so that we can really utilize American feedstocks and promote jobs for American farmers, and position the US as a leader on SAF given the economic and technological competitiveness components of that. Lorrie Boyer: Tom Michels, Director of Government Affairs with United Airlines and a member of the coalition, outlines the benefits of sustainable aviation fuel, noting it can be used without building new infrastructure. Tom Michels: It's times like these where we really see why we've committed so hard to SAF. United first got interested in this space back in 2009 when oil prices went from $50 a barrel to $150 a barrel in less than a year. And so we started thinking over the long term, how do we insulate ourselves and become more resilient against these kinds of shocks? Lorrie Boyer: Michels says even though there will be ups and downs in the SAF market as well, overall it is a more resilient market. That was Lorrie Boyer, she's a member of the National Association of Farm Broadcasting. Todd Gleason: Now let's turn our attention to E15, where the Senate majority leader John Thune has suggested there may be a pathway forward for E15. He made his comments to Matt K., a reporter for the Ag Information Network out of Washington, D.C. John Thune: It's a national security issue. So yeah, I mean, I think that makes sense. Todd Gleason: Budget committee member Charles Grassley argued just ahead of Thune's comment that a farm and war package would be the next best choice after it became clear a party line budget bill would not have E15. Charles Grassley: The prominence of the war and the increased farm input costs through urea and diesel is very much connected. And I'm going to let the world know about that. Todd Gleason: Renewable Fuels Association's Troy Braydencamp says the connection between year-round E15 and the Iran war, well, it's unmistakable. Troy Braydencamp: This situation that has developed in the Middle East, I think, just screams the need for us to have year-round E15 and the need for Congress to get this done as soon as possible. Todd Gleason: That would provide relief for motorists at the pump, politicians straddled with war-driven inflation, and likely billions in new income for farmers facing another year of negative margins. And that's a look at today's agricultural news. 11:14 Using Metribuzin to Manage Group 15 Resistant Waterhemp Todd Gleason: You know, some farmers are likely to have noticed group 15 herbicides are no longer controlling waterhemp deep into the growing season. A three years ago, weed scientists at the University of Illinois set about determining how widespread group 15 sensitive waterhemp might be across the state. They collected waterhemp populations from 84 of the 102 counties in Illinois, and found 42 percent of them were able to survive a discriminating group 15 herbicide dose. Now, Aaron Hager says the university's not claiming these populations are confirmed resistant, that would take more work. But rather, that it is something farmers should consider. Aaron Hager: Now the reason we bring this to your attention, of course, that's very important chemistry for us in both corn and beans. But we have to recognize the fact that if this is as common as what these numbers are suggesting is, we really can't assume that we're going to get these weeks-long residual control like we used to. It's just not going to work for us. Todd Gleason: Hager says there is a good side to the story. It involves an older herbicide chemistry called metribuzin. Aaron Hager: Several years ago, we asked the question, why don't we use more metribuzin? Because metribuzin actually exploits one of the very few weaknesses in the resistance profile of waterhemp. Todd Gleason: This weakness has to do with the way triazine herbicides, like metribuzin, work. It's a group 5 herbicide. Now, these herbicides can work in two different ways, says Hager. Aaron Hager: We use what's called symmetrical, and we use asymmetrical. So a symmetrical triazine, all that means is that the nitrogen atoms in the phenol ring of that molecule are symmetrically distributed around that ring. Very common example of a symmetrical triazine is atrazine. When an asymmetrical triazine, what that—the only thing that means is that those nitrogen atoms now are not, not symmetrically distributed around the ring. And the most common example that we have of a non-symmetrical or asymmetrical triazine is metribuzin. Todd Gleason: The significance, says Aaron Hager, is that most triazine-resistant waterhemp in the Midwest cannot be controlled by symmetrical triazines like atrazine, but they can be controlled by asymmetrical triazines like metribuzin. Aaron Hager: So again, our summary is the PPO resistance is really limiting the residual activity that we can get from many of our soil-applied products in soybean. Quite honestly, folks, I think we're missing something with metribuzin. I think that still can give us an option. Is it going to last the entire season? No. Is it going to control every other species in the field? No, metribuzin never did before, why do we think it will now? It never killed a velvetleaf, a cocklebur that I know of. But if amaranthus is your target species, that might be something that you want to think about. Todd Gleason: To boot, Hager says metribuzin is probably going to be a cheaper option than other products in the marketplace. And again, it can work to control waterhemp. 14:35 Ag Weather with Mike Tannura Todd Gleason: You're listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media on this Thursday afternoon. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. Let's turn our attention now to the growing regions across the planet and conditions in each of them. We're joined by Mike Tannura. He is the president and CEO at T-Storm Weather. That's tstorm.net online. Hi, Mike. Thanks for being with us. We have, I think, a lot to cover. Mostly in the United States today. Begin with the hard red winter wheat growing regions. Texas, Oklahoma, parts of Kansas, Colorado. How dry really is that area today? Mike Tannura: Well, it's very dry by a number of measures. It basically stopped raining there in the middle of February, and we haven't seen a whole lot since. Over the last 30 days, our proprietary data shows that 41% of this crop has had less than one-quarter of its normal rainfall. So basically, that's how much had no rain over the last 30 days. Over the last 60 days, the number drops down a little bit, but still 26% of this crop has had little to no rain over the last 60 days. And we know these numbers are going to shoot a little bit higher. The reason for that is because we're still hanging onto a little bit of a rain event that we had right around February 15th, but that's going to be removed from our 60-day data over the next day or two, and that will cause that number to jump even higher. So, Todd, this explains why we're seeing such low condition ratings. Only about 14% of winter wheat in Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas were rated good and excellent as of Sunday. And if you look at Kansas, which is where most of the production comes from, it's at only 32%, but doing a little bit better. So this is just screaming to us, Todd, that we need some big rains. And we do need them soon. It's the middle of April, and typically March and April is when this crop is made, though it still matters a little bit once you get into May and June. So it's a little bit of a longer season than what we have for corn and soybeans, but they do need rain. Todd Gleason: What are you forecasting for them? Mike Tannura: Well, there's very little rain on the way over the next seven days. We can see that drought is going to intensify in the western plains. And that's primarily because each system that moves across the central United States over the next week will move too quickly to pull muggy air into the western plains. Now I know it might be a little bit difficult to think about, but in the western plains the elevation is pretty high compared to the Corn Belt. You know, here in the Corn Belt, our typical elevation is anywhere from 500 to maybe a thousand feet above sea level. But as you move into the western plains, it's way higher than that, 3000, 4000, 5000, even 6000 feet once you get really far west. And you need to pull muggy air into that region in order to make for rain and thunderstorms. And these systems that are coming across over the next week, they're going to move too quickly for much rain there. Now, once we get further into the future, one to two weeks out, there are a couple of systems that have a slightly better chance of making it rain out there. And that's really going to be important for this crop because we're going to need to see some big totals. Now is a big rain event going to suddenly change the good and excellent ratings from 14% to a more typical level of 40 to 50%? I mean, that probably is not going to happen because it's just getting a little bit late. But any rain would be helpful. There is some on the way more than likely one to two weeks out, but at this point the chance is only low for a big rain. Todd Gleason: Temperatures in that area have been really unusual as well, too, right? Mike Tannura: Well, they certainly have. If you start in September and then go right through March, it was the warmest on record in the heart of the plains by a wide margin. And that warmth has extended right into April. So this is a setup that we haven't seen in more than 130 years of record. The crazy thing though, Todd, to think about is that even though we've seen highs in the 70s and 80s and 90s several times over the last few weeks, including this week, we have a freeze that's on the way coming up Saturday morning and possibly Sunday morning, too. Temperatures in western Kansas and Colorado and western Nebraska will drop into the 20s and even some mid-20s, so we will see temperatures, you know, at cold enough levels to do some damage. Now, the only, you know, sort of saving grace to this is that we've really only had, you know, a small portion of the crop that is heading. But basically, it's dry, it's been really warm, and then just in the middle of all this, we'll see a little freeze here too. Todd Gleason: So the hard red winter wheat crop in need of rainfall, the soft red winter wheat crop grows in a different area. Parts of Missouri, southern Illinois, into Indiana and eastward. What are conditions like for it? Mike Tannura: Well, there's a very sharp delineation between wet conditions in the north and then dry conditions in the south. Wisconsin, Michigan, and then northern areas of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. They've had some heavy rains. I mean, Michigan especially. Michigan is going to have one of its wettest Aprils on record, if not the wettest on record, and these records go back 130 years. So that just gives you an idea of how much rain that state is seeing. Um, as you head to the south though, the rains suddenly disappear once you get into the Mid-South. We're talking about Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, into southern Missouri, even far southern Illinois has been missing out on these rains. And that drought there extends all the way further east into the southeastern U.S. including the Carolinas, with North Carolina being one of the states that we always need to monitor for wheat because it does have a little bit of higher production. So Todd, just to take a step back and think about this. The western plains are in a drought. The Mid-South is in a drought. The southeast is in a drought. So this is pretty much the whole southern part of the US. Though there's been some rains in eastern Texas that are kind of muddling the story and making it not quite as clean because they don't look quite as dry. But back to soft red winter wheat, that part of the crop does need rain. We would argue that about 30 percent of the US soft red winter wheat crop is in a fairly significant drought. And so we need these rains there. Now there will be some over the next few days. Not only today, but again tomorrow and tomorrow night when a cold front moves through. But the totals don't look to be very heavy. Maybe a half of an inch to an inch on the high side. Then it dries out for about five to six, seven days before the next chance for rain comes in. That rain chance looks better though because there will be sufficient humidity in place for some nice rains once we get into late next week at least in the Mid-South. Todd Gleason: You've talked a lot about rainfall in all kinds of areas across the Corn Belt. Do you have a forecast for the next week or so broadly for the area? Maybe in the Dakotas all the way to Ohio? Mike Tannura: Well, there's not much rain on the way for the northern areas, so spring wheat planting should be able to move forward until we get into about a week from now when a pretty decent chance for rain arrives in that area. In the Corn Belt, we have some pretty strong storms coming up tomorrow and into tomorrow night primarily in Missouri, eastern Iowa, and then Illinois including around the WILL region. So we'll be watching all of that for another pretty big rain event. So it's going to stay wet in the middle of the Corn Belt. It does dry out a lot this weekend and over the first half of next week. That happens as a major cold front moves through tomorrow and into Saturday. Conditions will start to improve as we move into late next week. But then, Todd, you know one thing to keep in mind is that these systems we've been talking about one to two weeks out, there will be a lot of humidity in place for those to make rain and thunderstorms in the Corn Belt. So it might be a little bit challenging for some planting with time, especially as you move to the north of Interstate 70, where we've already been seeing some rains, and it looks like some decent ones are ahead. Todd Gleason: And finally, just a very short update on second or safrinha corn in Brazil? Mike Tannura: Well, kind of a mixed bag there. Some areas are dry, some areas are receiving storms. There's not really a very good story there to the dry side or wet side. We don't really have a whole lot to latch onto. And there are some rains ahead here and there, but also some dry periods. So, we'd just say everything is looking fairly normal there. Not a great setup, but not a poor one either. Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it. Mike Tannura: Thanks a lot, Todd, talk to you soon. Todd Gleason: That's Mike Tannura. He is with T-Storm Weather at tstorm.net online. Joined us on this Thursday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is Public Radio online, on demand at willag.org. I'm Todd Gleason.