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Monday BEST BETS | Huge Series | NBA Conference Finals & NHL Playoffs & MLB & WNBA | 5/18/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:16
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
0:19
Speaker 1: your chase, the black coffee on the felt Man, you
0:23
Speaker 1: look like a mist three teen Parlette turned the dust
0:27
Speaker 1: in your head.
0:28
Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
0:31
Speaker 2: this man. But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade
0:35
Speaker 2: from the floor. Your name steal mean something in somebody
0:40
Speaker 2: for show?
0:41
Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
0:45
Speaker 4: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now, hold on, hold.
1:01
Speaker 5: And me, but it an'll get the crown. Hold on,
1:15
Speaker 5: hold on.
1:17
Speaker 3: And stay with me.
1:18
Speaker 6: Now, what's up, everybody? It's sewed back with you. Toadsool Sports, Monday,
1:32
Speaker 6: May eighteenth. We're on a really really crazy run on
1:36
Speaker 6: the show here two and oh yesterday, moving to eighty
1:39
Speaker 6: three point thirty seven and five. Since I started putting
1:42
Speaker 6: this tracker up here forty four days something like a
1:46
Speaker 6: I don't even know what it is now twenty and
1:48
Speaker 6: three more recent run as well over the last ten
1:51
Speaker 6: or eleven days. I still have not figured that out,
1:53
Speaker 6: but whatever it is, I'm yeah, it's close. We won
1:57
Speaker 6: both games yesterday under first five in Philadelphia Pittsburgh. I
2:02
Speaker 6: believe it was two nothing Philadelphia at that point. Pittsburgh's bullpen,
2:07
Speaker 6: like I said, wasn't really that good. But the full
2:09
Speaker 6: game still went under as well. It landed six. Philadelphia
2:14
Speaker 6: pitched a shutout in the game, so but I think
2:17
Speaker 6: first five was still the right move there. Cleveland Indians
2:21
Speaker 6: easy win there as well. They just extended their lead,
2:24
Speaker 6: didn't really look back. I think it was a ten
2:26
Speaker 6: to three final there. We'll move on to today. I'm gonna
2:30
Speaker 6: give out two plays today, both in baseball. I have
2:34
Speaker 6: a couple other leans in baseball. Not really gonna quite
2:37
Speaker 6: get there with the rest of these games WNBA, there
2:39
Speaker 6: are a couple of games that I don't love. I
2:41
Speaker 6: know I haven't been involved in the WNBA for a
2:43
Speaker 6: few days now, but I got to pick spots Man.
2:46
Speaker 6: The hockey game was in consideration for me, but I'm
2:50
Speaker 6: gonna skip it and NBA. I don't know. I'm skipping
2:55
Speaker 6: the NBA. I don't have a great angle on it.
2:57
Speaker 6: I'll talk about it, obviously, But dirty sock, what's up, Josh?
3:02
Speaker 6: What's up? Thanks for hanging out all right? Baseball? This
3:05
Speaker 6: is a bigger Monday card than usual, so it kind
3:09
Speaker 6: of annoys me because I like Monday is like a
3:11
Speaker 6: break yeah, I still don't really recommend splashing the board.
3:17
Speaker 6: I mean, I don't know. I'm all about being selective,
3:20
Speaker 6: but twelve and four is pretty insane. Atlanta at Miami
3:26
Speaker 6: we have new series starting, so you know, you have
3:28
Speaker 6: to take into account travel, et cetera. Miami is returning
3:31
Speaker 6: home from a road trip here, but they finished the
3:34
Speaker 6: road trip in Tampa Bay, so it's not exactly the
3:36
Speaker 6: worst road trip return spot. But still they've been away
3:40
Speaker 6: for a week. So I talk about that teams return
3:42
Speaker 6: on from road trips, they can get distracted. They have
3:45
Speaker 6: to get back to home life. But Miami's already in
3:48
Speaker 6: the state of Florida. This is a huge divisional series
3:51
Speaker 6: against Atlanta, so they likely won't overlook Atlanta here, and
3:58
Speaker 6: the matchup does not really very advantageous to me to
4:01
Speaker 6: Atlanta or for Atlanta. Here. Atlanta is coming off beating
4:05
Speaker 6: at the Red Sox. What else is new. They're traveling
4:08
Speaker 6: in from Atlanta, which is not a horrible travel spot,
4:11
Speaker 6: and starting a road trip with momentum usually is a
4:15
Speaker 6: positive spot. Atlanta only used two relief pitchers yesterday, including
4:20
Speaker 6: Ronaldo Lopez, who is not a starter anymore. Until somebody
4:25
Speaker 6: gets hurt. Obviously, Miami used two relief pitchers as well.
4:28
Speaker 6: Both bullpen's set up pretty well here and they're both good.
4:31
Speaker 6: Atlanta's ranked one, Miami three in bullpen. This is based
4:35
Speaker 6: on whip. Atlanta is ranked number two in offense based
4:40
Speaker 6: on ops, Miami is eighteen. So Atlanta does have a
4:43
Speaker 6: big edge there. Starting pitching, I think is a pretty
4:46
Speaker 6: big edge to Miami, though. JR. Ritchie is pitching for Atlanta.
4:50
Speaker 6: He is a rookie. He's been okay. He has a
4:52
Speaker 6: three point three two ERA and one point four to
4:55
Speaker 6: three whip is not good though definitely too high. He's
4:58
Speaker 6: been a little bit worse on the roads well. Three
5:00
Speaker 6: point seventy five Roady Ray. Miami is some more pitcher
5:04
Speaker 6: friendly ballpark, though Richie still has not allowed more than
5:08
Speaker 6: three and runs in any start, which is good. But
5:10
Speaker 6: he's got a seventeen to fifteen strike a walk ratio.
5:13
Speaker 6: Man it to make matters even worse this month than
5:16
Speaker 6: two starts. It's six to nine. That's not good. You
5:20
Speaker 6: can't walk one guy an inning, which is what he's
5:23
Speaker 6: done this month, and nine and the third innings pitch.
5:25
Speaker 6: You can't walk more guys than you strike out that's
5:28
Speaker 6: just not gonna lead to good things. Overall, he's allowed
5:31
Speaker 6: fewer hits than innings pitch, so that's good. He's been
5:33
Speaker 6: difficult to hit. Atlanta has won three of his four starts,
5:37
Speaker 6: but they hit well against Miami. Obviously, they've never seen
5:41
Speaker 6: it before, so there is that advantage young pitchers when
5:44
Speaker 6: they're going up against eight lineup that's never seen them before,
5:47
Speaker 6: they do have a little bit of an edge. But
5:49
Speaker 6: Max Meyer has been much better this year. He's I
5:52
Speaker 6: think he's a pretty proven pitcher right now, and he's
5:55
Speaker 6: having a good season. Three point two to one ERA,
5:58
Speaker 6: one point one to five whips from Miami here, two
6:01
Speaker 6: point six y three home he race, so he's also
6:04
Speaker 6: better at home. He's been really good this month as well,
6:07
Speaker 6: twenty one to five strikeout walk ratio, so he's in
6:10
Speaker 6: good recent form. Miami has won all three of his
6:13
Speaker 6: starts this month, fewer than one hit per inning allowed,
6:16
Speaker 6: way over one strikeout per ending as well. Over the
6:19
Speaker 6: course of the season, it's actually pretty much more of
6:21
Speaker 6: the same, so this month has really just been a
6:24
Speaker 6: continuation of that. He's pitching well man he is going
6:29
Speaker 6: up against a powerful Braves lineup, though, and they have
6:32
Speaker 6: hit him all right in the past. They have fifty
6:34
Speaker 6: two at bats against him. They have a two sixty
6:36
Speaker 6: nine batting average against him eight h two ops, so
6:40
Speaker 6: they have hit him decently. But he does have seventeen
6:43
Speaker 6: strikeouts in one walk against them, whose command numbers are
6:47
Speaker 6: still very good against them. And we do have to
6:50
Speaker 6: keep in mind that a lot of these numbers are
6:52
Speaker 6: accumulated when Meyer was not as good as he is now,
6:55
Speaker 6: because I don't believe he's Oh, he did face Atlanta
6:57
Speaker 6: once this year, in my mistake, he pitched Atlanta. He
7:00
Speaker 6: actually did fairly well on that start, even though they
7:02
Speaker 6: lost the game. He went five innings, five strikeouts, one walk,
7:06
Speaker 6: three on runs allowed. That was not a bad outing
7:08
Speaker 6: from him. You know, this game is not one that's
7:12
Speaker 6: really in consideration for me. We do have a return
7:17
Speaker 6: home spot for Miami here, but Atlanta's a very public side, dude,
7:22
Speaker 6: And they opened a favorite and the money looks like
7:23
Speaker 6: it's come in and basically moved Miami to a favorite.
7:27
Speaker 6: And when you see that, I mean the odds makers
7:29
Speaker 6: or the market, they're kind of telling you something here.
7:32
Speaker 6: Even though Atlanta has been like I think they might
7:34
Speaker 6: have the best record in baseball right now. Miami's below
7:37
Speaker 6: five hundred. Yeah, Miami's got like a favorite price attached
7:41
Speaker 6: to them here. That is the odds maker's telling you
7:44
Speaker 6: pretty much that Miami is kind of the right side here.
7:48
Speaker 6: Ninety five percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the
7:50
Speaker 6: cash on Atlanta, so Atlanta's very public with less of
7:54
Speaker 6: the money on them. I'm gonna lean to Miami here,
7:57
Speaker 6: but I don't really. I still don't like to situational
8:00
Speaker 6: set up though, the return home spot, I just can't
8:03
Speaker 6: do that. But I do think they have the better
8:04
Speaker 6: of the matchup, and I think the bullpen situation like
8:08
Speaker 6: bullpen's are pretty much I think evenly matched in my opinion,
8:11
Speaker 6: so slightly from me to Miami there, but that one
8:14
Speaker 6: is not in my card. Tyson, what's up? Thanks for
8:16
Speaker 6: hanging out all right? Baltimore at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay
8:22
Speaker 6: is staying at home. They did just beat Miami yesterday.
8:25
Speaker 6: Baltimore is traveling in from Washington, I believe. Yeah, Baltimore
8:30
Speaker 6: won and salvage the last game of the series yesterday,
8:34
Speaker 6: which that was a game where I did mention that
8:36
Speaker 6: the odds makers I think put Baltimore up as a
8:39
Speaker 6: favorite in that game, so I think they were kind
8:41
Speaker 6: of indicating something on Baltimore there. I don't know. You
8:45
Speaker 6: can go back and watch my show yesterday to remember
8:48
Speaker 6: what I said. Maybe I'm getting that wrong. I don't
8:50
Speaker 6: even remember. Man. As far as the relief pitching, Baltimore
8:54
Speaker 6: used a bunch of guys. They used four relief pitchers yesterday,
8:57
Speaker 6: which is not great. Washington use three. Washington's bullpen is
9:02
Speaker 6: pretty bad. They are ranked twenty third right now according
9:06
Speaker 6: to this list, Baltimore eighteenth. Baltimore does have a slightly
9:10
Speaker 6: better bullpen, but not by much, and they did use
9:13
Speaker 6: a little bit more of it yesterday. Washington has been
9:15
Speaker 6: the better offense, the ranked sixth offensively, Baltimore is eighteenth.
9:24
Speaker 6: Oh wait, what am I saying? Why am I saying? Washington?
9:26
Speaker 6: Tampa Bay? Dude, I hate these days where the new
9:30
Speaker 6: series starts, I get all fucked up. My apologies. Tampa
9:34
Speaker 6: Bay is who Baltimore is playing here. Tampa Bay used
9:36
Speaker 6: four leave pitchers yesterday. Tampa Bay's bullpen is actually a
9:40
Speaker 6: little bit better. They're tenth, So yeah, Tampa Bay has
9:43
Speaker 6: a better bullpen than Baltimore. I apologize as Tim Bay's
9:48
Speaker 6: excuse me, Tampa Bay's bullpen is thirteenth. I'm sorry, but yeah,
9:52
Speaker 6: I think they are better than Baltimore's still, although they've
9:54
Speaker 6: been struggling a little bit again. Tampa Bay's bullpen's been
9:57
Speaker 6: a roller coaster. They're really bad at the beginning of
9:59
Speaker 6: the season, really good for a while, and then just
10:03
Speaker 6: recently they have been worse again. Tampa Bay's offense is
10:08
Speaker 6: ranked tense, so my mistake, Baltimore eighteen, So Tampa Bay
10:11
Speaker 6: actually has the better bullpen and the better offense here. Kyle,
10:15
Speaker 6: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. I also think Tampa
10:19
Speaker 6: has the better starting pitcher here as well. Baltimore has
10:22
Speaker 6: Trevor Rodgers pitching. He's a little bit difficult to figure
10:26
Speaker 6: out though, because last year he was really really good
10:30
Speaker 6: for Baltimore and I expected nothing because his numbers were
10:34
Speaker 6: pretty shaky for the most part when he was with Miami.
10:36
Speaker 6: He had a couple of decent seasons in there, but
10:38
Speaker 6: he was kind of all over the place. He was
10:40
Speaker 6: bad in a very short season with Baltimore at the
10:45
Speaker 6: end of twenty twenty four. I didn't expect anything from
10:48
Speaker 6: him last year, and he had the best season of
10:51
Speaker 6: his career. They didn't. He did not pitch the full season,
10:54
Speaker 6: but he still made eighteen starts and he was awesome
10:57
Speaker 6: for Baltimore last year to come from out of nowhere.
11:01
Speaker 6: And this season he's been pretty bad. Five point seven
11:05
Speaker 6: to seventy r a one point five to four whip.
11:07
Speaker 6: He's been injured as well, so we have to figure
11:09
Speaker 6: that out. His home road splits are pretty insignificant. He
11:13
Speaker 6: got injured I think in the start against the Red Sox,
11:16
Speaker 6: where it's hard to tell because the Red Sox won.
11:19
Speaker 6: That came seventeen to one. Nobody even remembers that the
11:23
Speaker 6: Red Sox scored seventeen runs. They've scored seventeen runs throughout
11:27
Speaker 6: the entirety of the rest of the season, but they
11:30
Speaker 6: scored seventeen to one game. Rogers didn't do well there.
11:35
Speaker 6: I think he must have been injured or something there.
11:37
Speaker 6: He was trending in the wrong direction. He got hurt,
11:40
Speaker 6: but he came back and he pitched against the Yankees.
11:43
Speaker 6: Might have been a relief appearance. I'm not sure, but
11:45
Speaker 6: he did not do well in that outing either. He
11:46
Speaker 6: gave up six runs in four innings, three walks, three strikeouts.
11:51
Speaker 6: He's just not a good form right now. Man. I mean,
11:54
Speaker 6: I still think he is better than his numbers this
11:56
Speaker 6: year are right now, but I can't trust him right
11:59
Speaker 6: now going up against Tampa Bay. His numbers are not
12:04
Speaker 6: really good against them either. They're only a five hitters
12:06
Speaker 6: who have faced him before though, so it's a really
12:08
Speaker 6: small sample size of twenty one at bats, two to
12:11
Speaker 6: two strike out walk ratio, three point thirty three average,
12:14
Speaker 6: eight twenty ops. You know, yeah, I mean I don't know.
12:19
Speaker 6: I don't like how Rogers sets up here, mister Pinze.
12:22
Speaker 6: What's up? Thanks for hanging out. Shane McClanahan is pitching
12:27
Speaker 6: for Tampa Bay. He's been the better of the two
12:29
Speaker 6: pitchers two point two seventy r point nine to eight WHIP.
12:33
Speaker 6: He's pitching really well in his return from injury this season.
12:38
Speaker 6: He's been awesome at home point eight seventy RRA so far.
12:41
Speaker 6: At home he's given up no runs in his last
12:45
Speaker 6: four starts. Yeah, I would say he's in good form
12:49
Speaker 6: right now. Also, a twenty three to four strikeout walk
12:52
Speaker 6: ratio over that span. Really good stuff. Over the course
12:56
Speaker 6: of the season, pretty similar. He's allowed very few hits
12:59
Speaker 6: like on one every two winnings. His walk rate only
13:04
Speaker 6: slightly high, and a lot of strikeouts more than one
13:07
Speaker 6: per inning. He's pitching well. Numbers against Baltimore very good
13:11
Speaker 6: as well, but twenty five career at bats is not
13:14
Speaker 6: a lot. Six strikeouts, three walks, one twenty batting average
13:18
Speaker 6: four fifty four ops. I'm gonna lean Tampa Bay here.
13:22
Speaker 6: I think they have the advantage in every aspect of
13:24
Speaker 6: the game. I think they have the better starting pitcher,
13:26
Speaker 6: they have the better bullpen, and they have the better hitting.
13:30
Speaker 6: But the money's not agreeing with it. This one is
13:32
Speaker 6: not on my card, but ninety two tickets eighty four
13:35
Speaker 6: percent of the cash on Tampa, so the money's disagreeing
13:38
Speaker 6: with Tampa. The total seven and a half. So the
13:41
Speaker 6: oddsmakers are kind of telling you they think both pitchers
13:44
Speaker 6: are actually gonna pitch well here. That remains to be seen.
13:49
Speaker 6: And if I was gonna go under in this game,
13:51
Speaker 6: the money's indicating actually on the over in this game.
13:55
Speaker 6: If I was gonna go under, I would do it
13:56
Speaker 6: in the first five, because I mean, I just don't
13:59
Speaker 6: trust Roger at all, though, but the bullpens are not
14:02
Speaker 6: really very trustworthy, so I would definitely not want to
14:05
Speaker 6: go under full game here, even though maybe it does happen.
14:09
Speaker 6: Tampa Bay is around a minus one fifty five favorite here,
14:13
Speaker 6: so my lean in this game would be to do
14:15
Speaker 6: a split bet run line money line on Tampa Bay.
14:19
Speaker 6: But I don't want to put that in my card.
14:22
Speaker 6: You're putting all of your fourrow one k on the Spurs.
14:25
Speaker 6: I would not do that at all. Definitely, no, I
14:30
Speaker 6: have a pretty strong disagreement with that. Cincinnati at Philadelphia.
14:36
Speaker 6: Philadelphia just swept Pittsburgh in the Keystone Battle, the Battle
14:41
Speaker 6: of Pennsylvania, and they dominated the series. Actually, they won
14:44
Speaker 6: the last two games, both six to nothing. So we
14:47
Speaker 6: could see a little bit of a let down here
14:49
Speaker 6: for Philadelphia. It is also a return home spot, although
14:52
Speaker 6: they're staying in the state of Pennsylvania here. But it's
14:56
Speaker 6: not a good spot really, It's a letdown spot off
14:59
Speaker 6: of a series against their rival. Return home could be
15:02
Speaker 6: a distraction. Cincinnati has not been playing particularly well, so
15:07
Speaker 6: situation sets up much better for Cincinnati here. The problem
15:10
Speaker 6: is gonna be the starting pitching matchup is not very
15:14
Speaker 6: advantageous to them. Cincinnati did just lose twice to Cleveland.
15:18
Speaker 6: We had that right yesterday on the show with one
15:20
Speaker 6: of my plays. Cincinnati is not a good team, dude.
15:23
Speaker 6: They've definitely fallen off, and Philadelphia is finally starting to
15:26
Speaker 6: play well. So Philadelphia is clearly the better overall team here,
15:31
Speaker 6: even though the records I think might be the same.
15:34
Speaker 6: Right now, Cincinnati used three relieve pitchers yesterday, Philadelphia used two.
15:39
Speaker 6: Philadelphia's bullpen is better. They are ranked fourteenth right now.
15:44
Speaker 6: Red's are twenty ninth, really really bad. Their ERA is
15:48
Speaker 6: up over five now as well. Offense starting to come
15:51
Speaker 6: around a little bit for the Phillies. Alough they're still
15:53
Speaker 6: hanging at twenty first, but I think they're a pretty
15:56
Speaker 6: good offense. I actually think they're better than Cincinnati, even
15:58
Speaker 6: though Cincinnati's fifteen, I'm not buying it. I think Philly
16:02
Speaker 6: does have actually have the better offense here as well.
16:06
Speaker 6: Starting pitching is tough to figure out. Nic Ludolo is
16:11
Speaker 6: pitching for the Reds. He had a pretty good season
16:14
Speaker 6: last year for them. At some point I think he
16:17
Speaker 6: is going to turn things around a little bit. But
16:18
Speaker 6: he's only made two starts I think, so far this season,
16:21
Speaker 6: and he's gotten roughed up. He has an eight point
16:23
Speaker 6: six's eighty RA one point six to one whip. He's
16:26
Speaker 6: definitely better than that. Like, I do think he is
16:28
Speaker 6: going to come around at some point, but I don't
16:32
Speaker 6: trust him right now. He did make both starts at
16:35
Speaker 6: home in that hitter friendly ballpark in Cincinnati. Philly has
16:39
Speaker 6: a fairly hitter friendly ballpark as well, though, so I
16:42
Speaker 6: don't know that he's really gonna do that much better
16:44
Speaker 6: in this start. He just hasn't been good so far.
16:46
Speaker 6: He's got eight strikeouts, four walks, eleven hits all out
16:49
Speaker 6: in nine to third innings so far, only made it
16:52
Speaker 6: past five innings once. Did face Houston and Washington, though
16:56
Speaker 6: those offenses have been better than Philadelphia so far this year.
16:59
Speaker 6: But I still don't like him in the start. Philadelphia
17:02
Speaker 6: has good numbers against him in eighty at bats that
17:05
Speaker 6: they're very familiar with him. Two eighty seven batting average,
17:08
Speaker 6: eight fifty two ops, twenty nine to eight strike a
17:11
Speaker 6: walk ratio is pretty good for Lodolo, but the rest
17:14
Speaker 6: of those numbers not good. I don't think he's trustworthy here.
17:17
Speaker 6: But do we trust Andrew paint Or on the other
17:21
Speaker 6: side for the Phillies. I am not so sure. He's
17:25
Speaker 6: in his rookie season right now, man, I do think
17:28
Speaker 6: he has talent. I think at some point he is
17:29
Speaker 6: going to be better than this. Six point two to
17:32
Speaker 6: one ERA, though, is not going to inspire a lot
17:35
Speaker 6: of confidence. One point five to nine whip also really bad.
17:38
Speaker 6: He's been slightly worse at home as well. Six point
17:42
Speaker 6: five homye ra. He pitched well in his last start,
17:44
Speaker 6: but it was against the Red Sox. I mean we've
17:47
Speaker 6: seen this before, Like, how many pitchers this year have
17:50
Speaker 6: like one good start and it happens to me against
17:52
Speaker 6: the Red Sox. Yeah, so I'm not totally buying that.
17:55
Speaker 6: Although he was okay two starts before that against Miami,
17:58
Speaker 6: he got wrecked in the start between the two at
18:01
Speaker 6: home against the A's. I don't really trust him. He's
18:04
Speaker 6: got a seven point ninety IRA over those three starts
18:06
Speaker 6: this month, even though two of them were good, thirteen
18:10
Speaker 6: to six strike out walk ratio, way over one hit
18:13
Speaker 6: per inning. He's allowed way too many hits on the
18:16
Speaker 6: over the course of the season, way well over one
18:19
Speaker 6: hit per inning. He's allowed a decent amount of walks
18:21
Speaker 6: as well, which isn't good. His strike got rate is fine,
18:24
Speaker 6: but a little bit below one per inning. Of course,
18:27
Speaker 6: he is going to be unfamiliar to Cincinnati because they
18:29
Speaker 6: haven't faced him yet. This is his rookie year, so
18:32
Speaker 6: he does have that advantage. But he's had that advantage
18:35
Speaker 6: basically all season and it hasn't really helped that much
18:38
Speaker 6: this game. I think if I was gonna play this game,
18:41
Speaker 6: I think I would go over the total. You got
18:43
Speaker 6: two bullpens that are both pretty questionable. Both starters seem
18:47
Speaker 6: questionable to me in this one as well. The money
18:49
Speaker 6: seems to agree with the over eighty three percent of
18:52
Speaker 6: tickets eighty six percent of the cash on the over.
18:55
Speaker 6: The total is pretty high at nine and a half
18:57
Speaker 6: juice to the over maybe ten. I'd probably prefer the
19:02
Speaker 6: nine and a half. I mean, nine and a half
19:03
Speaker 6: is better just because it is a half run better.
19:05
Speaker 6: But nine is a key number, so nine and a
19:08
Speaker 6: half between the difference between nine and a half and
19:10
Speaker 6: ten is not a lot, but still, I mean, it's
19:13
Speaker 6: about the price and what number you get on it.
19:16
Speaker 6: The money's also indicating on Cincinnati, which seems I mean,
19:20
Speaker 6: I agree with Cincinnati situationally, you know what I mean.
19:23
Speaker 6: And if Ludolo was able to pitch, how he pitched
19:26
Speaker 6: last year. That would make it look a lot more
19:28
Speaker 6: appealing on Cincinnati. Here seventy six percent of tickets, only
19:32
Speaker 6: sixty two percent of the cash. On Philadelphia, they are
19:35
Speaker 6: short favor of minus one twenty something. The public is
19:39
Speaker 6: not going to be on Cincinnati. They like recency, you know,
19:42
Speaker 6: in Philadelphia has been the way better team recently. They
19:44
Speaker 6: are the better team, but in this situation, it's not
19:49
Speaker 6: a good situation for Philly, I will say at least
19:52
Speaker 6: that much. So I don't really necessarily disagree with Cincinnati,
19:57
Speaker 6: but I think my preference in that game would definitely
19:59
Speaker 6: be to play over Yeah, I played video games a lot.
20:05
Speaker 6: The whole industry has gone like completely woke though, so
20:08
Speaker 6: I haven't played any for a long time. I used
20:11
Speaker 6: to play the classic games. I played all the Blizzard
20:15
Speaker 6: games back in the day, Diablo two, Original StarCraft, those
20:20
Speaker 6: were my thing. I played a lot of Overwatch for
20:24
Speaker 6: a while. More recently than that, that's gotten. That's gone
20:27
Speaker 6: way off the woke deep end though, so I don't
20:30
Speaker 6: want to deal with any of that crap anymore. I played,
20:34
Speaker 6: like you know, Madden and stuff like that, a lot
20:36
Speaker 6: of sports games that was a console game for me.
20:38
Speaker 6: I played a lot of counter Strike, which I used
20:41
Speaker 6: PC for that. For the first person shooters. I was
20:44
Speaker 6: really good at counter Strike source back in the day.
20:48
Speaker 6: I was pretty good at StarCraft as well. Back in
20:50
Speaker 6: the day. Those are some of the games I played
20:53
Speaker 6: a lot of Rock Band as well. I was a
20:56
Speaker 6: vocalist I had. I was in the leaderboards for a
20:59
Speaker 6: lot of the vocal stuff on rock Band back in
21:02
Speaker 6: the day, back on PS four. Mostly No, Yeah, that's
21:08
Speaker 6: why I just don't even bother with it anymore. I
21:10
Speaker 6: just don't even I don't really want to spend the
21:12
Speaker 6: time on it either, even though I'll occasionally go back
21:15
Speaker 6: to some games, like I'll play the newer Diablos and
21:18
Speaker 6: stuff like that. But I played a lot of games
21:20
Speaker 6: though back in the day. Cleveland at Detroit on Fox
21:24
Speaker 6: Sports one. We have an AL Central Divisional matchup here.
21:28
Speaker 6: Detroit lost their last two games against Toronto. They haven't
21:32
Speaker 6: been hitting well. They've lost a lot of recent games.
21:34
Speaker 6: They've lost five of six. Actually they've lost it's been
21:37
Speaker 6: worse than that. They've lost ten of their last twelve.
21:42
Speaker 6: But they're staying at home right now. I think they're
21:45
Speaker 6: gonna show up at least for a game against Cleveland. Here,
21:47
Speaker 6: it looks like a bounce back spot to me for Detroit.
21:50
Speaker 6: Cleveland did just beat their rival Cincinnati, although I think
21:53
Speaker 6: Cleveland will show up for a series against Detroit as well.
21:56
Speaker 6: But Detroit is still pretty good at home, man, even
21:58
Speaker 6: though they haven't been good recently. They're thirteen and eight
22:01
Speaker 6: at home still Cleveland eleven and twelve on the road,
22:05
Speaker 6: So home road splits favor Detroit a little bit here.
22:10
Speaker 6: As far as the overall records, people are gonna want
22:13
Speaker 6: Cleveland right now because they're leading the division, I'm pretty sure,
22:15
Speaker 6: and they have the better record. Detroit is suffering a
22:18
Speaker 6: little bit because they've lost some of their starters and whatever.
22:22
Speaker 6: They've had a lot of bad things happen to their
22:24
Speaker 6: starting pitching, injuries to schoolble. Of course, Valdez, who's pitching today,
22:29
Speaker 6: got suspended. Mye was hurt. He came back and he
22:33
Speaker 6: didn't even pitch bad yesterday. But I think they still lost.
22:37
Speaker 6: But now we have to focus on this game. I
22:38
Speaker 6: do like the situation for Detroit better than I like
22:42
Speaker 6: it for Cleveland. Detroit is favored in this game by
22:44
Speaker 6: a decent amount, so the odds makers are telling you
22:47
Speaker 6: by favoring Detroit here that they're actually either the better
22:50
Speaker 6: team or they at least have the better match up
22:52
Speaker 6: here over Cleveland, even though Cleveland has a better record.
22:56
Speaker 6: So listen to the odds makers when they tell you
22:58
Speaker 6: that Cleveland used two relief pitchers yesterday. Detroit also used two.
23:03
Speaker 6: I don't really like Detroit's bullpen. Cleveland's is okay. They're
23:07
Speaker 6: at tenth right now. Detroit at twenty first not as good,
23:11
Speaker 6: but their eray isn't really that bad. But still Cleveland
23:15
Speaker 6: does have the better bullpen. Cleveland is fourteenth in offense
23:18
Speaker 6: right now, even though I don't think they're the better offense.
23:20
Speaker 6: Detroit is seventeenth, but I do think Detroit's offense is
23:23
Speaker 6: actually better starting pitching matchup looks it looks like it's
23:26
Speaker 6: a big advantage to Detroit. Though Slay Chacone is pitching
23:30
Speaker 6: for the Cleveland side. He has not been good. Five
23:33
Speaker 6: point sixty ray, one point five to eight whip. That's
23:36
Speaker 6: not good. He's been three runs worse on the road
23:39
Speaker 6: with a six point six Roady Ray really bad. He
23:43
Speaker 6: pitched well in his last outing, but he only went
23:45
Speaker 6: four innings against Anaheim, so he was really inefficient, even
23:49
Speaker 6: though he shut out Anaheim for four innings, had seven strikeouts,
23:54
Speaker 6: but through too many pitches. I guess for what they
23:56
Speaker 6: want him to do, they took him out right around
23:58
Speaker 6: the ninety pitch mark. He's been okay though in his
24:01
Speaker 6: last two starts, really but I'm still not fully buying it.
24:06
Speaker 6: His strikeout rate is below one per inning. He's allowed
24:08
Speaker 6: way over one hit per ending, which is pretty bad,
24:11
Speaker 6: and his walk rate is kind of mediocre, kind of
24:15
Speaker 6: too high, I would say, So, I don't know. I
24:17
Speaker 6: don't really like Chaconi here. His numbers gets Detroit are
24:21
Speaker 6: a little bit hard to read because some of them
24:23
Speaker 6: are good and some of them are bad. He's got
24:25
Speaker 6: thirty five at bats against them, eleven to two strike
24:28
Speaker 6: out walk ratio is good. A two twenty nine average
24:30
Speaker 6: allowed is good, but a seven eighty five OPS because
24:34
Speaker 6: they do have three home runs off him, So his
24:37
Speaker 6: overall numbers are a little bit hard to gauge. I
24:39
Speaker 6: think the ops does matter a little bit more So,
24:42
Speaker 6: I don't really like Chaconi here from Bervaldez, like I said,
24:46
Speaker 6: is pitching for Detroit. Here. He started off pitching pretty
24:50
Speaker 6: well this season. He's falling off a bit. He's got
24:52
Speaker 6: a four point three to two ERA one point three
24:55
Speaker 6: to six whip. Not good. He's been you know, I
24:58
Speaker 6: mean Holman road splits aren't really significant for him this year.
25:02
Speaker 6: He's really had two awful starts though, at Minnesota and
25:06
Speaker 6: against the Red Sox, which is the start where he
25:09
Speaker 6: unraveled and then he got suspended. But the rest of
25:13
Speaker 6: his starts are all good. He's allowed two or fewer
25:16
Speaker 6: earned runs and all the rest of his starts. He's
25:18
Speaker 6: a head case dude, so he goes on tilt. Like
25:20
Speaker 6: if he starts pitching bad in a particular game, it
25:23
Speaker 6: goes totally haywire. But if he continues to pitch well,
25:27
Speaker 6: he does well. And he did bounce back and pitch
25:29
Speaker 6: well coming back from suspension. He pitched well against the Mets,
25:33
Speaker 6: although they lost in extra innings, but he delivered a
25:36
Speaker 6: good start there. But it was against the Mets that've
25:38
Speaker 6: been hitting horribly this year. Still, it's a good sign
25:41
Speaker 6: that he came back and pitched well. So he is
25:45
Speaker 6: regaining form. At the very least, he's facing a Cleveland lineup,
25:48
Speaker 6: it's not really that intimidating. He's got thirty eight at
25:51
Speaker 6: bats against them one fifty eight batting average allowed four
25:54
Speaker 6: to eighty nine ohps, six to two strike out walk ratium.
25:58
Speaker 6: I like Detroit here. I wish Chacone's numbers were a
26:02
Speaker 6: little bit worse here because I'd probably added to my card.
26:05
Speaker 6: I was considering putting Detroit on my card. The money
26:08
Speaker 6: is totally disagreeing with it. Though. Detroit's around minus one
26:11
Speaker 6: forty something right now, so I probably would just money
26:13
Speaker 6: line it. Like when it's below one minus one fifty,
26:16
Speaker 6: I usually just suck it up and lay the juice
26:19
Speaker 6: on the money line. That sounded almost gay. Suck up
26:24
Speaker 6: the juice, man. But we have sixty percent of the
26:26
Speaker 6: tickets on Detroit, which makes no sense to me. Why
26:29
Speaker 6: would the public be on Detroit as a decent sized
26:32
Speaker 6: favorite here against a Cleveland team it has the better
26:35
Speaker 6: record and has been playing better recently. I don't think
26:38
Speaker 6: that that's an accurate number. That's why I hate this,
26:43
Speaker 6: you know this way. I love wager Talk like I
26:45
Speaker 6: love their content, but I don't like their odds screen
26:47
Speaker 6: that much. Pregame is never gonna fix theirs, though been
26:50
Speaker 6: gone for like a month now. Inexcusable on their part,
26:55
Speaker 6: but we have seventy one percent of the cash on
26:57
Speaker 6: Cleveland here. Yeah, I mean, I don't what I'm seeing there,
27:00
Speaker 6: but I would play Detroit if I was gonna play
27:02
Speaker 6: that game. I think the situation lines up for them. Actually,
27:05
Speaker 6: i'd probably do it first five now that I think
27:08
Speaker 6: about it, because I don't like their bullpen. I like
27:11
Speaker 6: the starting pitching matchup for Detroit. I like the situation
27:13
Speaker 6: for Detroit, you know. I mean, I wouldn't disagree with
27:18
Speaker 6: with them full games, still them, but first five maybe
27:21
Speaker 6: a little bit better, you know, maybe just sorry, I'm
27:25
Speaker 6: gonna get a WNBA here. Yeah, first five you could
27:29
Speaker 6: lay like a half run with Detroit. They need to
27:31
Speaker 6: be winning at the end of five if you do
27:33
Speaker 6: it that way, but I think there's a decent chance
27:35
Speaker 6: they will be. Yeah. Overwatch two is just overwatched. They
27:39
Speaker 6: just changing into Overwatch two, and I think it's just
27:41
Speaker 6: called Overwatch again. I don't know what they did. They
27:44
Speaker 6: changed some of the characters' names. Like I'm looking, I'm like,
27:46
Speaker 6: what did they do to McCree? What's going on here?
27:49
Speaker 6: I don't know. I haven't played it since they did that,
27:52
Speaker 6: though I used to be a really, really excellent at
27:55
Speaker 6: Lucio though. That was my thing. I was a very
27:59
Speaker 6: attack heavy Lucio. I was insane as Lucio. Man. I
28:03
Speaker 6: don't know how I did it, but like, yeah, I
28:05
Speaker 6: was doing everything. I was pushing people off the map.
28:08
Speaker 6: I was really good at using his primary attack and
28:11
Speaker 6: killing people that way and while healing obviously at the
28:14
Speaker 6: same time. I don't know why, but I became really
28:16
Speaker 6: really good with Lucio in that game. That was my thing.
28:20
Speaker 6: He was my main all right, And there were a
28:24
Speaker 6: couple other characters. I was pretty good. Torri Bjorn was
28:28
Speaker 6: like the guy that I used the second most. All right,
28:33
Speaker 6: what's the next game up here? New York Mets and Washington, Washington.
28:39
Speaker 6: They're staying at home. They lost to Baltimore yesterday, but
28:42
Speaker 6: they won the series. Mets are coming in from beating
28:45
Speaker 6: the Yankees, which I did tell you. I mean, the
28:48
Speaker 6: Yankees didn't have a great pitching matchup in that game yesterday,
28:51
Speaker 6: so I did lean towards the Mets slightly in that game.
28:55
Speaker 6: They got the job done somehow. But now the Mets
28:59
Speaker 6: are coming up a big series win, man, and the
29:01
Speaker 6: Mets are actually playing a little bit better right now.
29:02
Speaker 6: They've won five of their last six. They beat the Yankees.
29:07
Speaker 6: Man they beat their cross town rival. This could be
29:10
Speaker 6: a letdown spot for the Mets here, though this is
29:12
Speaker 6: a divisional series here, I think the spot is negative
29:16
Speaker 6: for the Mets. Here. Mets used two relief pictures yesterday,
29:19
Speaker 6: although one of them was Manaia, who is a long
29:21
Speaker 6: relief man. Now we get to Washington's bullpen, they suck.
29:25
Speaker 6: They use three relief pitchers yesterday. Washington is a bad bullpen.
29:29
Speaker 6: Twenty third. The Mets are pretty good ninth in bullpen offensively,
29:34
Speaker 6: Washington has a big edge. They're sixth. Mets are still
29:37
Speaker 6: dead last thirtieth despite their recent run. Here. Christian Scott,
29:43
Speaker 6: especially for the Mets, I mean, he is definitely a
29:45
Speaker 6: wild card here. He's young. He's got a three point
29:48
Speaker 6: four to five ERA right now. That's pretty good. One
29:51
Speaker 6: point four whip is not good though. He's been better
29:55
Speaker 6: on the road though, two point seventy nine road y RA,
29:58
Speaker 6: so that lines up recently for this game here. He's
30:01
Speaker 6: only gone five innings once though, so that worries me.
30:04
Speaker 6: Although the Mets bullpen is decent, his strikeout walk ratio
30:09
Speaker 6: is really good this month though, nineteen to four, So
30:12
Speaker 6: after he walked five guys in his first start of
30:14
Speaker 6: the season, then maybe he walked to five guys after
30:18
Speaker 6: that to drown his sorrows and burgers and fries, which
30:21
Speaker 6: are way overpriced. By the way, He's been good since
30:26
Speaker 6: that first start, at least his command numbers. He's got
30:28
Speaker 6: way over one strike out per inning, below one hittle
30:32
Speaker 6: out per inning in a low walk rate in his
30:35
Speaker 6: last three outings, so that's good. But he hasn't gone
30:38
Speaker 6: that deep into these outings, so that's not good. But
30:41
Speaker 6: he hasn't a lot more the touring runs in any
30:42
Speaker 6: of his outings, so overall he is actually pitching okay.
30:46
Speaker 6: Will he pitch well against Washington, I don't know. He
30:49
Speaker 6: does have some history against them because he's pitched in
30:52
Speaker 6: past seasons as well. I think he's got twelve at
30:54
Speaker 6: bats against them, one strikeout, two walks, one sixty seven
30:59
Speaker 6: batting average and seven h two ops. Decent numbers. Just
31:03
Speaker 6: a home run from Garcia Junior is throwing off the
31:06
Speaker 6: ops a little bit. But I think it sets up
31:08
Speaker 6: for Scott to actually potentially pitch okay. Here he's going
31:12
Speaker 6: up against Jake Irvin, who I would not want to back,
31:15
Speaker 6: even though I don't like the situation for the Mets,
31:17
Speaker 6: but I can't really play Washington with Jake Irvin at home,
31:21
Speaker 6: he's got a five point nine to one ERA one
31:23
Speaker 6: point four or five whip. He's been awful at home
31:26
Speaker 6: seven point five eight home ERA three runs higher than
31:30
Speaker 6: it is on the road. He's pretty unbackable at home, dude.
31:33
Speaker 6: He pitched bad on the road last time out at Cincinnati.
31:37
Speaker 6: He's been bad this month well over one hit ale
31:40
Speaker 6: out per inning, eleven strikeouts, nine walks eight point three
31:43
Speaker 6: to one ERA across three starts. That is not good.
31:48
Speaker 6: He's got way too many walks over the course of
31:50
Speaker 6: the season. His strike gout rate is good, more than
31:52
Speaker 6: one per inning. His hit rate is fine, it's right
31:54
Speaker 6: around one per inning, but he has a ton of walks.
31:57
Speaker 6: That is. His main problem is that he's issuing repasses
32:00
Speaker 6: all over the place. He does get a draw here
32:03
Speaker 6: against a bad Mets lineup, though, and he does do
32:07
Speaker 6: fairly well against them. Sixty career at bats one to
32:10
Speaker 6: eighty three average allowed, six sixty nine ops, thirteen to
32:13
Speaker 6: seven strike at walk ratio. You know, it kind of
32:19
Speaker 6: sounds crazy for like a home game with Washington involved,
32:22
Speaker 6: because they allow so many runs at home and they
32:25
Speaker 6: hit well. But I don't know, man, I mean, this
32:28
Speaker 6: almost seems like there is an argument for an under
32:31
Speaker 6: in the first five here between these two starting pitchers.
32:34
Speaker 6: I don't think I want to do it, though, because Irvin,
32:36
Speaker 6: I mean, he still has bad, bad numbers at home.
32:39
Speaker 6: The total is ten here, and it is that high
32:42
Speaker 6: for a reason. The money's also coming in on the
32:43
Speaker 6: over seventy two percent of tickets on the under seventy
32:48
Speaker 6: one percent of the cash on the over. I mean,
32:50
Speaker 6: you have one really bad bullpen with Washington, you know.
32:54
Speaker 6: I just I don't totally see a path to like
32:57
Speaker 6: to that over though, Even though the oddsmakers are telling
33:00
Speaker 6: you it's supposed to be a high scoring game, I
33:02
Speaker 6: could see both pitchers actually having an okay outing here.
33:06
Speaker 6: So I can't do it, even though Washington does have
33:08
Speaker 6: a lot of high scoring games at home, man, which
33:11
Speaker 6: is basically the reason why this total is where it is.
33:13
Speaker 6: The Mets are also favored at minus one thirty five
33:17
Speaker 6: minus one forty. Do you think the Mets deserve to
33:19
Speaker 6: be minus one forty against any team on the road
33:24
Speaker 6: right now? I would say no. Although the odsbakers are
33:27
Speaker 6: kind of telling you they they're basically telling you the
33:29
Speaker 6: Mets are the better team here with that line, but
33:32
Speaker 6: with an unproven starting pitcher here and the way the
33:35
Speaker 6: Mets have played this year, laying that price on the
33:37
Speaker 6: road seems I mean, it just seems like it's too
33:42
Speaker 6: heavy of a price to me. Seventy eight percent of tickets,
33:45
Speaker 6: only fifty nine percent of the cash on the Mets,
33:47
Speaker 6: so the money is indicating towards Washington. The Mets could
33:51
Speaker 6: be in a letdown spot him. If you're gonna play Washington,
33:53
Speaker 6: I would say do it in the first five because
33:56
Speaker 6: their bullpen is very, very bad, so I would not
33:59
Speaker 6: want to deal with that. But yeah, I don't even
34:02
Speaker 6: I don't think I even want to do it at all.
34:04
Speaker 6: I mean, I know, I don't. You could see why
34:06
Speaker 6: I don't want anything to do with that game. Ryan Hart.
34:09
Speaker 6: I couldn't get the gist of Ryinhart. I don't know,
34:13
Speaker 6: like his just entire thing is just like sitting there
34:17
Speaker 6: in protection and then aiming his charge or whatever. I
34:21
Speaker 6: can't do that shit. Reinhart was probably my least favorite
34:25
Speaker 6: to play, as I could not do that at all.
34:30
Speaker 6: Is the hamster of it still in it. That was
34:32
Speaker 6: a wrecking ball. I think it was his name, right, I.
34:35
Speaker 5: Came in like a wrecking ball.
34:40
Speaker 6: I was trying to think of some hamster related lyrics.
34:42
Speaker 6: There a hamster ran a stupid ball. I have no idea,
34:49
Speaker 6: all right, Toronto at the Yankees. Yankees are staying in
34:53
Speaker 6: New York even though they are returning home. But I
34:55
Speaker 6: told you that the return home distraction for the Yankees
34:58
Speaker 6: I kind of think came in when they came back
35:00
Speaker 6: to New York to play the Mets, because they're obviously
35:03
Speaker 6: they're going home to be with their families if they're
35:05
Speaker 6: in New York City, you know what I mean. So
35:07
Speaker 6: they're staying in New York City here, so I don't
35:09
Speaker 6: see this as a real return home spot here. Toronto
35:13
Speaker 6: is traveling in from Detroit. The Yankees have been pretty
35:18
Speaker 6: good at home, Toronto hasn't been very good on the road.
35:22
Speaker 6: To me, this looks like a spot where the Yankees
35:25
Speaker 6: should probably get back on track and win. But they
35:27
Speaker 6: use six guys out of the bullpen yesterday just to lose.
35:31
Speaker 6: Which was that an extra inning game? What was that? Yes?
35:34
Speaker 6: It was. They used a lot of relief pitchers man a.
35:38
Speaker 6: Both Subway series went into extra innings yesterday in the finale.
35:42
Speaker 6: Seems rigged. So the Yankees bullpen is not in a
35:45
Speaker 6: good rest situation here. Toronto used three guys out of
35:48
Speaker 6: the bullpen yesterday. Yankees have the better bullpen generally, the
35:52
Speaker 6: ranked eleventh, Toronto fifteenth, but with Toronto being way more
35:56
Speaker 6: rested in the bullpen, that kind of negates the Yankees
35:59
Speaker 6: bull pen edge a bit. In my opinion. Yankees have
36:02
Speaker 6: the better offense. It's not even really close. They're number three,
36:06
Speaker 6: Toronto is number twenty five. Patrick KORbin is pitching for Toronto,
36:10
Speaker 6: and just on the surface, I look at this and
36:12
Speaker 6: I'm like, yeah, this pitching matchup is in favor of
36:16
Speaker 6: the Yankees here. You know, I'm not a fan of
36:18
Speaker 6: Patrick KORbin. He's got a three point nine to three
36:20
Speaker 6: ERA this year for Toronto, which is fine, but one
36:23
Speaker 6: point four whip is not good. He's been good on
36:26
Speaker 6: the road, though his road ra is way better two
36:29
Speaker 6: point five to three roadyra. Do with that info what
36:32
Speaker 6: you want. He's not really pitching that well though He's
36:35
Speaker 6: gone no more than five to two thirds innings in
36:38
Speaker 6: any of his outings this month. He has a six
36:40
Speaker 6: to four strikeout walk ratio. He's been at least keeping
36:44
Speaker 6: his team in the games that he's pitched, not allowing
36:46
Speaker 6: more than three or in runs. But he's not going
36:48
Speaker 6: deep into these games. He's got a low strikeout rate,
36:53
Speaker 6: doesn't fool hitters really well below one per inning. His
36:56
Speaker 6: walk rate isn't that bad. I mean, it looks bad
36:59
Speaker 6: next to the number of rikeouts that he has, but
37:01
Speaker 6: he doesn't really walk that many guys. But he does
37:03
Speaker 6: allow a lot of hits more than one per inning. Yeah,
37:06
Speaker 6: I don't think he's very trustworthy. He's going up against
37:09
Speaker 6: a very potent offense here in the Yankees, and they've
37:12
Speaker 6: hit him pretty well one hundred and forty four at
37:14
Speaker 6: bats that they're really familiar with him. He's been around
37:17
Speaker 6: for a long time. Twenty nine to sixteen strike out
37:20
Speaker 6: walker ratio. That is a lot of walks to seventy
37:23
Speaker 6: one batting or at least it's a bad ratio. Two
37:26
Speaker 6: seventy one batting average allowed, eight ZHO two ops allowed.
37:30
Speaker 6: So to me, it looks like the Yankees bats probably
37:33
Speaker 6: will do something in this game. Although Corbin is better
37:37
Speaker 6: on the road this year, so there is that. Ryan
37:39
Speaker 6: Weathers is pitching for the Yankees. He's had a pretty
37:41
Speaker 6: good season three ERA one point one to one whip
37:45
Speaker 6: home road splits are not very significant, so he's good
37:48
Speaker 6: either way. He's allowed no more than three or in
37:51
Speaker 6: runs in any outing except one all season, which was
37:54
Speaker 6: a home start against Anaheim. But he struck out ten
37:58
Speaker 6: in that game and he got kind of unlucky allowing
38:00
Speaker 6: four home runs, so even that start wasn't that bad.
38:03
Speaker 6: He's pitched well. He's got a high strikeout rate, way
38:06
Speaker 6: above one per inning, walk rate not too bad. Hasn't
38:10
Speaker 6: allowed a lot of hits either, pretty significantly below one
38:13
Speaker 6: per inning. He's been good, man. He's had a good season.
38:17
Speaker 6: Hasn't exactly faced like a gauntlet of good offenses though,
38:20
Speaker 6: But he's facing Toronto here, who have not been a
38:24
Speaker 6: good offense either. Toronto has not hit him well in
38:29
Speaker 6: the past. They have sixteen at bats against him, no
38:31
Speaker 6: extra base hits, one twenty five average three zero one
38:34
Speaker 6: ohps four to one strikeout walk ratio. I like the
38:37
Speaker 6: Yankees in this one, man. I mean, their bullpen is
38:41
Speaker 6: questionable right now with all that bullpen usage. So a
38:43
Speaker 6: Yankee first five play might make sense here. The money
38:47
Speaker 6: is indicating on the Yankees eighty percent of the tickets,
38:50
Speaker 6: ninety two percent of the cash on them. I think
38:52
Speaker 6: they bounced back after those losses. I don't think this
38:55
Speaker 6: is a real return home spot for them. Like I said,
38:57
Speaker 6: they've already been in New York for multiple days now.
39:01
Speaker 6: They have a minus one ninety price here. The price
39:06
Speaker 6: that they are in the first five is around the same.
39:09
Speaker 6: I would probably lay the half run with the Yankees
39:11
Speaker 6: in the first five. I think it's probably the way
39:13
Speaker 6: I would play this. You could also go Yankee over
39:16
Speaker 6: their team total, but I don't think I necessarily want
39:19
Speaker 6: to do that because I think you want to include
39:21
Speaker 6: weathers having pretty good numbers against Toronto. I think you
39:24
Speaker 6: want to include that in whatever you bet here. You know,
39:28
Speaker 6: so the pitching matchup, I think the starting your pitching
39:31
Speaker 6: matchup is a big advantage to the Yankees. So that
39:34
Speaker 6: is the way I would try to find a way
39:35
Speaker 6: to do that, you know what I mean. But I
39:37
Speaker 6: think you're laying a half run at about minus one
39:39
Speaker 6: thirty five or so, probably which sometimes I will do it.
39:43
Speaker 6: It's rare I considered it. I did consider this. So
39:47
Speaker 6: the two games that I consider putting on my card
39:50
Speaker 6: that are not on my card right now were a
39:52
Speaker 6: split run line money line bet on the Detroit on
39:54
Speaker 6: the Detroit Tigers, and first five minus a half run Yankees.
40:00
Speaker 6: Those are my considerations that I did not add to
40:02
Speaker 6: my card. Next game up will be one of my
40:05
Speaker 6: plays Red Sox and Royals me versus Zach here. But
40:14
Speaker 6: I'm just trying to get this game right. Man. We're
40:16
Speaker 6: gonna play the Boston Red Sox on the money line
40:19
Speaker 6: minus one twelve. Nobody's really gonna want to do it,
40:21
Speaker 6: I don't think. Because the Red Sox have been awful.
40:23
Speaker 6: They've been hitting really poorly. They're not good, but they actually,
40:27
Speaker 6: believe it or not, they've been hitting better on the
40:28
Speaker 6: road this year. They're only a couple of games, will
40:31
Speaker 6: love five hundred on the road. They've actually been better
40:33
Speaker 6: on the road than at home, which it all makes
40:36
Speaker 6: no sense because Fenway's a hitter friendly ballparks. I don't
40:38
Speaker 6: know what the deal is with that. Royals have been
40:41
Speaker 6: better at home though than on the road. But even so, well,
40:45
Speaker 6: we start looking at the spot and it's not a
40:47
Speaker 6: good spot for Kansas City. They're returning home from the road,
40:50
Speaker 6: although I know they were still just in the area.
40:52
Speaker 6: They were in Chicago, they were in Saint Louis. They
40:54
Speaker 6: did just end eight losing streaks. A lot of times
40:56
Speaker 6: that will give a team new momentum when they end
40:59
Speaker 6: to losing streak, so that does warring me a little bit.
41:02
Speaker 6: But it is still a return home spot. They were
41:04
Speaker 6: in Saint Louis, so they're traveling back across the state
41:08
Speaker 6: to Kansas City here, so it is a return home spot.
41:11
Speaker 6: Potentially they could be distracted here, so I do think
41:14
Speaker 6: it is still a fade spot for them. Red Sox
41:17
Speaker 6: have not gotten off the road trip really on the
41:21
Speaker 6: greatest of foots here, greatest of feet mostly because they
41:25
Speaker 6: lost yesterday eight to one of the Braves. I think
41:27
Speaker 6: it could be a bounce back spot for the Red
41:29
Speaker 6: Sox here after getting obliterated there. But that was also
41:32
Speaker 6: because I told you, dude, Brian BeO, they didn't put
41:35
Speaker 6: an opener in front of him yesterday and guess what
41:38
Speaker 6: he blew. He was awful. When they have him start
41:41
Speaker 6: the game, he is awful. So I told you I
41:44
Speaker 6: did lean to Atlanta on that game yesterday. I didn't
41:46
Speaker 6: put it on my card or anything, but BeO absolutely sucks.
41:51
Speaker 6: They should have put an opener in front of him.
41:52
Speaker 6: Maybe that would have helped him out because it has
41:55
Speaker 6: the last couple of times. But yeah, this is just awful.
41:58
Speaker 6: The Red Sox need to just lean house, dude. I
42:01
Speaker 6: know they already got rid of kora On whatever they
42:03
Speaker 6: got to get rid of general management, ownership, Sell the
42:07
Speaker 6: fucking team. I'm done with this shit. However, I think
42:09
Speaker 6: the Red Sox are gonna win this game. Going into
42:12
Speaker 6: Kansas City here, I think the Red Sox have a
42:15
Speaker 6: big bullpen advantage. They only use Watson out of the
42:18
Speaker 6: bullpen yesterday, so their bullpen is pretty clear right now.
42:21
Speaker 6: They have arrested bullpen and they have the better bullpen.
42:24
Speaker 6: Kansas City used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday,
42:27
Speaker 6: which isn't bad, but the Red Sox are ranked fifth
42:29
Speaker 6: and bullpen. Even with all their problems, their bullpen has
42:33
Speaker 6: not been one of those problems. Kansas City has been
42:35
Speaker 6: pretty bad twenty sixth in bullpen. Red Sox are an
42:39
Speaker 6: awful offense. Though they're all the way down at twenty
42:42
Speaker 6: ninth now, still think that they have better hitters than that,
42:45
Speaker 6: and they should probably be somewhere around twentieth. I don't
42:49
Speaker 6: know what is going on with that offense. Man Kansas
42:52
Speaker 6: City is fifteenth, but I still don't really consider them
42:55
Speaker 6: to be like a juggernaut offense. Sonny Gray is pitching
42:58
Speaker 6: for the Red Sox. He's been pretty good for them
43:01
Speaker 6: three point one eighty RA, one point one to five
43:03
Speaker 6: WHIP on the season. I know he hasn't been his
43:06
Speaker 6: gun on the road five point five four ERA. That
43:08
Speaker 6: is bad. I know his road home road splits are
43:12
Speaker 6: not good, but he pitched pretty well in his last
43:16
Speaker 6: road game. He shut out Detroit for five innings. That
43:18
Speaker 6: was when he came back from his injury or whatever.
43:21
Speaker 6: He's only given up one run and eleven innings since then.
43:24
Speaker 6: He's only allowed six hits, which were a roads starting
43:26
Speaker 6: against Detroit, a home start against Philly, eight strikeouts, three walks.
43:31
Speaker 6: And what's kind of significant about that to me is
43:35
Speaker 6: he pitched well in a stadium that he's pretty familiar
43:37
Speaker 6: with because he used to be on Minnesota for a while,
43:40
Speaker 6: so he was familiar with pitching against Detroit. Although you
43:42
Speaker 6: could make the argument that means you should have done
43:44
Speaker 6: well when he pitched in Minnesota and he didn't pitch
43:46
Speaker 6: well in that outing, that's true, but he did pitch
43:49
Speaker 6: well coming back from his injury or whatever against Detroit.
43:53
Speaker 6: He's done decently. Overall this season, he's been decent. He's
43:57
Speaker 6: allowed below one hit per inning. The right cut rate
44:00
Speaker 6: is not high, but he's also got really low walk
44:02
Speaker 6: rate too. You know, he just needs to make sure
44:05
Speaker 6: he's not too hittable, and sometimes he is, and that's
44:08
Speaker 6: his problem. He's getting up there in age man, so
44:10
Speaker 6: his strike out stuff isn't really there anymore. But he's
44:13
Speaker 6: still able to pitch pretty effectively. He is going up
44:18
Speaker 6: against the team it's seen a lot of them, Kansas
44:20
Speaker 6: City because he pitched in their division. But he's been
44:22
Speaker 6: good against Kansas City one hundred and eleven at bats.
44:25
Speaker 6: We have a big sample two sixteen batting average allowed,
44:28
Speaker 6: six forty four ohps. Pretty decent numbers here, twenty one
44:32
Speaker 6: to nine strike up walk ratio is not great, but yeah,
44:36
Speaker 6: I mean overall, he's got pretty good numbers here. And
44:39
Speaker 6: he is going to be opposed by Seth Lugo, who
44:42
Speaker 6: to me seems to be kind of falling apart a
44:44
Speaker 6: little bit. And maybe the advanced analytics guys have been
44:48
Speaker 6: right all along, man, because I'm more of a guy
44:50
Speaker 6: that just looks at like whip and strike out walk
44:52
Speaker 6: ratio and stuff. I'm the old school, so I've been saying, like,
44:55
Speaker 6: I think Lugo's pretty good still. You know, the advanced
44:57
Speaker 6: analytics guys have been saying, no, look at his underlying metdrix,
45:01
Speaker 6: he's not that good. And maybe maybe we're all correct,
45:06
Speaker 6: because maybe it's just starting to catch up with him
45:08
Speaker 6: just now. He's been decent this year era wise, three
45:12
Speaker 6: point seven six ERA, but his whip is pretty bad
45:15
Speaker 6: one point four to two. He's been a little bit
45:17
Speaker 6: worse at home, so the home road splits are not
45:19
Speaker 6: really in favor of either pitcher here. I know grays
45:22
Speaker 6: are worse, but Grays are kind of being skewed by
45:25
Speaker 6: like one bad start or maybe two. Lugo four point
45:30
Speaker 6: four home ERA not great. He's not a good form
45:33
Speaker 6: right now. So Sonny Gray is in the better form
45:35
Speaker 6: right now. Lugo has a six point six ERA this month,
45:38
Speaker 6: and if you extend that to his last outing in
45:41
Speaker 6: the prior month where you give up seven runs on
45:44
Speaker 6: fourteen hits against Anaheim, he's been pitching real bad. He's
45:48
Speaker 6: given up eighteen runs over that span of what is
45:52
Speaker 6: that then twenty four innings or something like that, twenty
45:55
Speaker 6: four and a third, so his ERA gets up even
45:57
Speaker 6: higher with that. He's allowed four or more runs and
46:00
Speaker 6: three of his last four outings. His only good outing
46:02
Speaker 6: was in pitcher friendly Seattle. He's got a fifteen to
46:06
Speaker 6: eight strike out walk ratio this month that is ugly
46:08
Speaker 6: as well. Overall, Yeah, his numbers are decent overall this season,
46:14
Speaker 6: a little bit below one strike upper inning. The walk
46:16
Speaker 6: rate is still pretty high though, and more than one
46:20
Speaker 6: hit per inning, so he is putting too many guys
46:22
Speaker 6: on base now, as the whip suggests. Against the Red Sox,
46:26
Speaker 6: they have okay numbers against him in fifty one at
46:28
Speaker 6: bats two fifty five average isn't really that high. They
46:32
Speaker 6: do have a seven to ninety two ohps against him,
46:34
Speaker 6: so they've been able to hit him a bit. Ten
46:36
Speaker 6: to five strike out walk ratio also not really that good,
46:39
Speaker 6: so I think the Red Sox actually set up to
46:42
Speaker 6: have the advantage here in the pitching department throughout this game.
46:46
Speaker 6: The total is high, it isn't nine. Kansas City moved
46:50
Speaker 6: the walls in, so they got these high totals at home. Now.
46:53
Speaker 6: I still don't know if they're really that hit or
46:55
Speaker 6: friendly of a ballpark, but the money seems to agree
46:57
Speaker 6: with me on the Red Sox here. Sixty four percent
47:00
Speaker 6: of tickets, seventy percent of the cash on them for now.
47:03
Speaker 6: They're a slight favorite right around the price that I'm
47:05
Speaker 6: giving it out at here. Money is also coming in
47:08
Speaker 6: on the under for what that's worth. You know, I
47:11
Speaker 6: don't really necessarily have a huge disagreement with that, but
47:14
Speaker 6: I think the way to play this game is the
47:16
Speaker 6: Red Sox. I know my totals have been really good
47:19
Speaker 6: in baseball recently, but both of my players are sides today.
47:24
Speaker 6: That's just the way that it worked out. Man. All right,
47:27
Speaker 6: let's keep this going. We have Houston and Minnesota. Minnesota
47:32
Speaker 6: is staying at home. They did just beat Milwaukee to
47:34
Speaker 6: finish that series. They had lost the other games in
47:37
Speaker 6: the series, so they avoid this. They avoided the sweep
47:41
Speaker 6: Houston lost yesterday and when they were trying to sweep Texas,
47:45
Speaker 6: which would have shocked me if they completed a sweep
47:48
Speaker 6: against Texas, but they did not. Uh So Houston is
47:51
Speaker 6: now traveling. It is a positive spot, I think for
47:54
Speaker 6: Houston because they are traveling to start a road trip.
47:57
Speaker 6: Usually that's a positive spot. Minnesota, though, staying at home
48:00
Speaker 6: not exactly a bad spot for them either. Minnesota used
48:03
Speaker 6: a lot of relief pitchers yesterday. This is a series
48:06
Speaker 6: where I think we're gonna we're gonna want to look
48:08
Speaker 6: for some overs in this series. I mean, these bullpens
48:11
Speaker 6: are both possibly the two worst in baseball. Minnesota has
48:15
Speaker 6: a bad bullpen. They used a lot of guys out
48:17
Speaker 6: of it yesterday. The use what is that five relief
48:20
Speaker 6: pitchers yesterday. Houston only used one though Bolton, but still
48:24
Speaker 6: their bullpen has been awful. Houston is the worst in
48:27
Speaker 6: baseball thirtieth. Minnesota is currently ranked twenty eighth, but they
48:32
Speaker 6: do well. They also have the third worst ERA, but
48:34
Speaker 6: the eras are kind of shuffled around there. Still, we're
48:37
Speaker 6: looking at two really bad bullpens. We're looking at offenses
48:40
Speaker 6: that have been pretty capable this year. Houston at fifth offensively,
48:44
Speaker 6: Minnesota at thirteenth. So this reads is like an over
48:47
Speaker 6: series overall, and this is not exactly a good starting
48:51
Speaker 6: pitching matchup. Tatsuya Emi is pitching for Houston. He's been
48:56
Speaker 6: really bad so far. This is his first season in
48:59
Speaker 6: the Majors. Came over from Japan, so a lot of
49:02
Speaker 6: times these guys have to adjust, you know, to the
49:04
Speaker 6: new culture, the new league. You know, the ball is
49:07
Speaker 6: a little bit different, the rules are a little bit different.
49:10
Speaker 6: Although you have to kind of weigh that against the
49:12
Speaker 6: fact that these hitters haven't faced him before, so sometimes
49:15
Speaker 6: that's an advantage to the picture. But he's been awful.
49:18
Speaker 6: Nine point two four ERA two point zero five whip
49:21
Speaker 6: is unbelievably bad. I don't see how we could back
49:24
Speaker 6: this guy, even though I know I tried. I think
49:26
Speaker 6: in his first outing he's been better on the road
49:29
Speaker 6: at least four point five roadra is at least something
49:32
Speaker 6: that you can digest. But he's been bad. Dude. He's
49:36
Speaker 6: gone more than five innings once, which was actually a
49:40
Speaker 6: shutout at the A's Stadium. That makes no sense that
49:44
Speaker 6: would be his best start. I don't get it, man,
49:46
Speaker 6: this guy, he's really a difficult picture to predict. And
49:50
Speaker 6: he didn't do well last time out against Seattle, but
49:52
Speaker 6: that was their second time facing him. But then again,
49:55
Speaker 6: he also did really bad the first time he faced
49:57
Speaker 6: them in Seattle, So really, I can't trust this guy
50:01
Speaker 6: right now. He has more walks than innings pitched. How
50:04
Speaker 6: can you rely on a guy like that? He does
50:07
Speaker 6: have a high strikeout rate too, though he still has
50:09
Speaker 6: more strikeouts than walks sixteen to fourteen and twelve to two.
50:13
Speaker 6: There's innings he's given up twelve hits, which is kind
50:16
Speaker 6: of normal. He is going up against the lineup that's
50:19
Speaker 6: never seen him before, so at least there is that
50:21
Speaker 6: maybe that will help him a little bit. Other than that, though,
50:25
Speaker 6: I would probably be looking to fade him here. Minnesota
50:28
Speaker 6: has never faced him before, though Minnesota has Kendry Rojas pitching.
50:35
Speaker 6: His stats this year are bizarre, to say the least.
50:39
Speaker 6: He's only twenty three. I think this is his first
50:41
Speaker 6: season in the majors. He's got a two point four
50:43
Speaker 6: to five vra Hey, that's pretty good, right, Yeah, but
50:46
Speaker 6: his whip is two point one eight. Like, these numbers
50:50
Speaker 6: are basically impossible outside of like a really small sample size, Like,
50:55
Speaker 6: how could you have an era that good and a
50:57
Speaker 6: whip that horrible? Something's got to give here, man. He
51:02
Speaker 6: hasn't been really good at home four point five homey
51:04
Speaker 6: ra but he's only pitched seven and a third inning
51:07
Speaker 6: so far, and he has eight strikeouts, eight walks and
51:10
Speaker 6: eight hits allowed and touring runs a lot. I don't know, man,
51:15
Speaker 6: I don't even know how to interpret these numbers. I mean,
51:18
Speaker 6: I think the way that you can kind of interpret
51:19
Speaker 6: it is that he is way too wild. Like obviously,
51:22
Speaker 6: the big problem here is the walks, and I think
51:25
Speaker 6: with that amount of walks, he's gotten really lucky to
51:27
Speaker 6: avoid allowing more runs. So that's the way that I
51:30
Speaker 6: look at him. I don't think he's pitching well here
51:33
Speaker 6: right now. I looked at his minor league numbers this year.
51:36
Speaker 6: His era was pretty good in Triple A. It was
51:38
Speaker 6: like in the threes, I think, but his whip was
51:40
Speaker 6: like one point four. So that worries me a bit.
51:43
Speaker 6: So I didn't like that he's projected to be like
51:46
Speaker 6: a mid rotation major league starter. He has like a
51:49
Speaker 6: mid nineties fastball. I guess he has a decent slider,
51:53
Speaker 6: and he has a change up and a splitter. I
51:56
Speaker 6: think that are kind of works in progress. So I
51:58
Speaker 6: don't know. To me, his arsenal doesn't seem that deep
52:01
Speaker 6: or unique, So I don't know. I don't I'm not
52:05
Speaker 6: sure that he's really that good. Let's put it that way,
52:08
Speaker 6: he will be going up against a lineup that hasn't
52:10
Speaker 6: faced him, So he is going up against Houston here.
52:13
Speaker 6: They've never seen him before, so the advantage that both
52:15
Speaker 6: pitchers have is unfamiliarity here. But other than that, this
52:20
Speaker 6: game reads is an overgame to me. That is the
52:22
Speaker 6: way that I would look at this game. I don't
52:23
Speaker 6: think I want to put it on my card though. Rojas,
52:27
Speaker 6: by the way, this will be his first actual major
52:30
Speaker 6: league start. All of his appearances so far have been
52:32
Speaker 6: out of the bullpen, so something to keep in mind.
52:35
Speaker 6: I don't know how that's going to affect him, like
52:37
Speaker 6: will he have nerves. I don't know. The money's coming
52:40
Speaker 6: in on Houston sixty two percent of tickets on Minnesota,
52:43
Speaker 6: eighty percent of the cash on Houston. The one advantage
52:46
Speaker 6: you might be able to say that Emi has here
52:48
Speaker 6: is that he has made starts already in his major
52:51
Speaker 6: league career. Rojas has not, so maybe that is an
52:54
Speaker 6: edge to Emi here. Uh, Minnesota's right around the minus
52:57
Speaker 6: won ten Pickham price here out the time, hotal is
53:00
Speaker 6: pretty high, which is expected at nine and a half.
53:04
Speaker 6: I don't think you'll find a nine anywhere. Actually, I
53:07
Speaker 6: do see it opened at nine, but it's gone up slightly,
53:11
Speaker 6: I guess, but it is nine and a half juice
53:14
Speaker 6: to the under, so maybe there is still a nine
53:15
Speaker 6: out there. I mean, if you can find a nine
53:18
Speaker 6: that is a little bit more tempting, like a nine
53:20
Speaker 6: over juice to the minus one twenty or something, but
53:23
Speaker 6: I would go over in that game. Don't really want
53:27
Speaker 6: to put it on my card though, because you know,
53:28
Speaker 6: it's it is really kind of an unpredictable matchup. But
53:32
Speaker 6: these bullpends, like I'm salivating to go with an over
53:35
Speaker 6: at some point in this series. Hopefully we'll be able
53:37
Speaker 6: to do it, but I don't really want to do
53:39
Speaker 6: it here, And now that I said that, you know
53:40
Speaker 6: it's gonna go way over and I'll just be pissed.
53:45
Speaker 6: You know, we we might be able to go with
53:47
Speaker 6: an over in one of these games, I don't know,
53:49
Speaker 6: because Minnesota's pitching the next two days or Matthews and
53:52
Speaker 6: Joe Ryan, those games might not be that over up
53:56
Speaker 6: this this game actually does look like the most overconducive
53:59
Speaker 6: out of all of them, so maybe we won't wind
54:01
Speaker 6: up being able to go over in the series. But
54:04
Speaker 6: you know, I'm trying to be really selective here, all right,
54:07
Speaker 6: we have Milwaukee at the Cubs. The Cubs, just like
54:10
Speaker 6: the Yankees. The Cubs are technically returning home from a
54:13
Speaker 6: road trip, but not really because they were already in
54:15
Speaker 6: Chicago playing the White Sox. So they're already back in
54:18
Speaker 6: their home city. So I don't think it's a distraction,
54:21
Speaker 6: you know, the return home whatever they've already done. That
54:24
Speaker 6: would be my assumption. And this is a pretty big series. Man.
54:28
Speaker 6: The Cubs in Milwaukee are definitely the two best teams
54:30
Speaker 6: in the NL Central, as I've been saying, and now
54:32
Speaker 6: they are the top two teams in the standings as well.
54:36
Speaker 6: This is gonna be a big series, so I don't
54:38
Speaker 6: think the Cubs are gonna overlook it, especially after losing
54:40
Speaker 6: pretty badly to the White Sox the last two days. Well,
54:43
Speaker 6: the White Sox might even not be that bad anymore.
54:46
Speaker 6: Milwaukee did just lose a three game win streak. They
54:49
Speaker 6: did just lose to Minnesota yesterday, but they won the series.
54:53
Speaker 6: That was kind of a bad spot. Like I think
54:55
Speaker 6: I probably pointed out yesterday, Milwaukee had already won the series.
54:59
Speaker 6: They're probably a head to the series against the Cubs.
55:02
Speaker 6: I think it's a good. It's a decent spot for Milwaukee, dude.
55:05
Speaker 6: They're not traveling that far from Minnesota to Chicago here.
55:09
Speaker 6: A huge series for both teams though, as far as
55:12
Speaker 6: the bullpen usage, Chicago did go into an extra inning
55:16
Speaker 6: game yesterday. Milwaukee used three relief pitchers yesterday the Cubs
55:21
Speaker 6: used four, oh no, sorry five, but roleless in only
55:25
Speaker 6: for two pitches. But Chicago, the Cubs did go into
55:28
Speaker 6: extra innings. Though, Cubs have been a good bullpen, they're eighth.
55:31
Speaker 6: The Brewers have climbed all the way to twelve though,
55:34
Speaker 6: so we are looking at two pretty good bullpens here,
55:36
Speaker 6: and the Brewers are a little bit more rested here.
55:39
Speaker 6: So the bullpens are pretty even. I think in this
55:41
Speaker 6: game Cubs have had the better offense. They're fourth, the
55:45
Speaker 6: Brewers are twenty third, although I still think they're gonna
55:48
Speaker 6: start hitting a little bit better. On the surface, this
55:51
Speaker 6: starting pitching matchup looks like a major mismatch in favor
55:54
Speaker 6: of the Cubs here, but when you start digging into it,
55:56
Speaker 6: it's actually not. Brandon sprote is pitching from Milwaukee here.
56:00
Speaker 6: He really hasn't been good though. In his first season
56:03
Speaker 6: with the Brewers, five point seventy five R and one
56:06
Speaker 6: point five to three whip. That's not good. He's been
56:09
Speaker 6: better on the road though, four point eighty five roady R.
56:13
Speaker 6: He's been decent at least this month. He's only allowed
56:16
Speaker 6: three or on runs across nine to third innings in
56:18
Speaker 6: two starts. But he's not going deep into really any
56:21
Speaker 6: of his outings. He does have an eleven to five
56:23
Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio this month, so that is concerning. That's
56:27
Speaker 6: a good strikeout rate, but it's too many walks. Two
56:29
Speaker 6: point eight ninety ras fine, but the walks are an
56:32
Speaker 6: issue and they have been all season. Man, he's got
56:35
Speaker 6: one strike up per inning, fewer than one hit per inning.
56:38
Speaker 6: That's all fine, but the walk number is way too high.
56:42
Speaker 6: He's got to get that walk number down. That is
56:44
Speaker 6: the big concern with him right now. That and the
56:47
Speaker 6: I don't know if it's the STAM. I don't I
56:48
Speaker 6: don't think I really want to say STAM in it.
56:50
Speaker 6: They're just not really letting him go that deep into
56:52
Speaker 6: these games, or he's just not pitching well enough for
56:55
Speaker 6: them to leave him in to do so. He is
56:58
Speaker 6: going up against a good Cubs line up here, but
57:00
Speaker 6: they've never seen him before. Maybe that'll be an advantage.
57:03
Speaker 6: I don't think I fully trust Sprote though, because he's
57:05
Speaker 6: been pitching pretty poorly, but the Cubs have never seen
57:08
Speaker 6: him before, so at least he does have that going
57:10
Speaker 6: for him. He'll be going up and get showed to
57:13
Speaker 6: I Minaga, who is clearly overall he's the way better pitcher.
57:17
Speaker 6: He's been really good this season again, two point three
57:20
Speaker 6: two ERA, point nine whip really good. He's been really
57:23
Speaker 6: good at home one point seventy four home ERA. He's
57:26
Speaker 6: been really good this month as well, with a one
57:29
Speaker 6: point three to five ERA, twenty one to four strike
57:32
Speaker 6: out walk ratio in twenty innings, fifteen hits allowed dominant
57:35
Speaker 6: stuff and over the course of the season it's basically
57:37
Speaker 6: the same. He's allowed way below one hit per inning,
57:40
Speaker 6: walk rate isn't too bad, and the strike out rate
57:43
Speaker 6: is above one per inning. He's been really good. Problem
57:47
Speaker 6: is he actually has not been good against Milwaukee in
57:49
Speaker 6: his career. Surprisingly, his numbers are really bad against them.
57:53
Speaker 6: For the most part, they have seventy six at bats
57:56
Speaker 6: against him. Seventeen to three strike out walk ratio does
57:59
Speaker 6: look good for him, but three twenty nine batting average
58:02
Speaker 6: allowed oneenty twelve ops. That is not something I can
58:05
Speaker 6: get on board with. Man. So even though I would
58:08
Speaker 6: think the Cubs would kind of be in a bounce
58:10
Speaker 6: back spot, here show up for a series against Milwaukee.
58:13
Speaker 6: When I first looked at this, I'm like, oh, yeah,
58:14
Speaker 6: this is a big pitching mismatch for the Cubs. But
58:17
Speaker 6: looking at the matchup numbers, it's really not. So I'm
58:21
Speaker 6: staying away from the game, like, I still have a
58:24
Speaker 6: tendency myself to want to lean towards the better pitchers still,
58:28
Speaker 6: but it's you're laying about minus one sixty with the Cubs.
58:32
Speaker 6: I don't think I could do it.
58:33
Speaker 3: Man.
58:33
Speaker 6: They got eighty five percent of tickets seventy seven percent
58:35
Speaker 6: of the cash on them, so the money is indicating
58:37
Speaker 6: towards Milwaukee. Here money's also indicating on the under the
58:41
Speaker 6: totals at ten and a half. So you know that
58:43
Speaker 6: means the wind is blowing out at Wrigley. You know, Yeah,
58:48
Speaker 6: I don't know what I would want to do with
58:49
Speaker 6: this game. Man. It just seems like, yeah, I mean
58:52
Speaker 6: the market read plus the matchup. Just because Sprote is unfamiliar,
58:57
Speaker 6: you could argue he has an advantage in the starting
58:59
Speaker 6: pitching match up here. I don't want to do it.
59:02
Speaker 6: I don't want to fade e Managa man. I mean
59:04
Speaker 6: there might be spots to do it, I don't really
59:06
Speaker 6: want to do it here with a big time question
59:08
Speaker 6: mark was sprout here. I mean one way that you could,
59:12
Speaker 6: I guess do this is you could go in Milwaukee
59:14
Speaker 6: over their team total, which seems crazy going up against
59:17
Speaker 6: an ace pitcher like e Managa, but they have good
59:20
Speaker 6: matchup number against him and in the totals high. So
59:23
Speaker 6: if you kind of think the Milwaukee side could hang
59:27
Speaker 6: in this game, maybe that does make sense to go
59:29
Speaker 6: with Milwaukee to just score runs off of a guy
59:31
Speaker 6: that they have historically hit him well, and then you
59:34
Speaker 6: take sprot who's the big question mark out of the equation.
59:38
Speaker 6: Maybe I would do something like that. All right, I'm
59:41
Speaker 6: gonna take a quick break. I'll come back. I have
59:43
Speaker 6: one more play here in baseball. We only have one
59:48
Speaker 6: fewer baseball game than normal that I think. The only
59:50
Speaker 6: teams that are off today are Pirates and Cardinals. They
59:54
Speaker 6: start a series tomorrow. But I'll be right back and
59:56
Speaker 6: then talk about the rest of the games that are
59:58
Speaker 6: on the slate as well. With the other sports. Give
1:00:01
Speaker 6: you one second. All right. One other good thing about
1:01:34
Speaker 6: the Red Sox, by the way, is they're stepping down
1:01:36
Speaker 6: in class from playing Atlanta to now playing Kansas City.
1:01:40
Speaker 6: That should be like I don't know if we want
1:01:42
Speaker 6: to we call it class relief. I guess when you
1:01:45
Speaker 6: go from playing a really good team to them playing
1:01:47
Speaker 6: a team that's not as good, as long as you
1:01:50
Speaker 6: got blown out by that bad team, Like if you
1:01:52
Speaker 6: put up a really good performance against that by that
1:01:55
Speaker 6: good team, I mean, if you put up a really
1:01:57
Speaker 6: good performance against that good team, then it becomes a
1:02:00
Speaker 6: hangover spot, you know. All right, Texas at Colorado. This
1:02:04
Speaker 6: is a very weird series because you got Texas, the
1:02:07
Speaker 6: team that plays in a very pitcher friendly ballpark, debatably
1:02:10
Speaker 6: the most pitcher friendly, now going to debatably the least
1:02:15
Speaker 6: pitcher friendly, going to Coursefield. I don't know how that's
1:02:18
Speaker 6: gonna play for Texas here. Colorado is staying at home,
1:02:22
Speaker 6: so that's not that bad for them. They just lost
1:02:24
Speaker 6: the series to the Diamondbacks at home. Texas just salvage
1:02:28
Speaker 6: the last game against Houston in Houston, and now they're
1:02:30
Speaker 6: going to Colorado, so continuing a road trip with some
1:02:33
Speaker 6: new momentum. Not exactly a bad spot for Texas here.
1:02:38
Speaker 6: Texas does have the better bullpen. They only use one
1:02:41
Speaker 6: guy out of the bullpen yesterday, so they do have
1:02:43
Speaker 6: a bullpen advantage. Colorado used three relief pitchers and they're
1:02:48
Speaker 6: not a very good bullpen. Texas is ranked seventh, but
1:02:51
Speaker 6: I think they have the best bullpen the ra though
1:02:54
Speaker 6: they're good. Colorado not so much. Colorado is sixteenth, which
1:03:00
Speaker 6: is not that bad but not good. Texas is not
1:03:03
Speaker 6: good offensively though. Colorado eleventh in offense and they do
1:03:07
Speaker 6: hit pretty well at home. Texas twenty sixth in offense.
1:03:10
Speaker 6: So yeah, Colorado is the better hitting team on the surface.
1:03:14
Speaker 6: I mean, you got a flame thrower here with Mackenzie
1:03:17
Speaker 6: Gore up against an old junk pitcher in Jose. Kintana
1:03:22
Speaker 6: like to me, like, I prefer the flame thrower, you know,
1:03:26
Speaker 6: the youth that Gore brings. But you started looking at
1:03:29
Speaker 6: this matchup and I'm like, God, oht no, man, Gore.
1:03:32
Speaker 6: He's having a decent season with Texas. I mean, overall,
1:03:36
Speaker 6: he does seem to be in a better place here
1:03:38
Speaker 6: with Texas than he was with Washington because he's always
1:03:42
Speaker 6: been a guy with talent. Man, it's just that he's
1:03:44
Speaker 6: wild as hell and has some issues. But four point
1:03:47
Speaker 6: five ERA, one point two to five whip that's not
1:03:50
Speaker 6: too bad. He's been really bad on the road, though,
1:03:53
Speaker 6: so we start getting into some problems here. Six point
1:03:55
Speaker 6: three to eight Roady Ray is not good. He pitched
1:03:59
Speaker 6: really well in his last which was of course, at
1:04:01
Speaker 6: home against Arizona. He dominated them for eight innings one
1:04:05
Speaker 6: and run, allowed five strikeouts one walk. But overall this month,
1:04:08
Speaker 6: even if you include that start, he has an eleven
1:04:11
Speaker 6: to seven strike out walk raceier this month and thirteen
1:04:14
Speaker 6: hits allowed in seventeen innings and a four point seven
1:04:17
Speaker 6: to six er rasome that this month has been like
1:04:20
Speaker 6: a microcosm of what he is like. He doesn't allow
1:04:23
Speaker 6: many hits, but he walks way too many and he
1:04:26
Speaker 6: strikes out guys. That's what he's done all season, all
1:04:29
Speaker 6: career really for him. He's allowed well below one hit
1:04:32
Speaker 6: per inning here this season, but his walk rate is
1:04:34
Speaker 6: really high. His strikeout rate is high as well, So
1:04:37
Speaker 6: that's what you're gonna get out of Gore now. He
1:04:41
Speaker 6: is an extreme flyball pitcher, which is not good in
1:04:44
Speaker 6: course field. You do not want to allow that many
1:04:46
Speaker 6: fly balls, so that's not good. He did pitch in
1:04:49
Speaker 6: coursefield last year, though, and he was really really good
1:04:52
Speaker 6: in that start. It was in April, though, so it
1:04:54
Speaker 6: was cool weather. Somehow they won the game twelve to eleven,
1:04:58
Speaker 6: but he only allowed two runs, so I think that
1:05:01
Speaker 6: was what with Washington. Washington's bullpen really got obliterated. He
1:05:06
Speaker 6: was good in that start. He had thirteen strikeouts in
1:05:10
Speaker 6: that start, even though he did a lot too many
1:05:12
Speaker 6: fly balls. Six innings, pitch, two runs loud. So he
1:05:16
Speaker 6: was good in that start in course field last year,
1:05:18
Speaker 6: so that's a decent sign. But his numbers against Colorado
1:05:22
Speaker 6: are not good, although it's a small sample twenty at
1:05:25
Speaker 6: bats with their current lineup here, he's got six strikeouts,
1:05:28
Speaker 6: no walks against him, which is very surprising, four point
1:05:32
Speaker 6: fifty batting average allowed though one thousand and one fifth
1:05:35
Speaker 6: the ops. It's surprising me because usually the walks are
1:05:38
Speaker 6: his huge problem. But Colorado has actually hit him pretty well,
1:05:42
Speaker 6: so that would be my concern here is that Colorado
1:05:44
Speaker 6: has hit him well, and he is a fly ball pitcher.
1:05:46
Speaker 6: He's been bad on the road, so it's not all
1:05:49
Speaker 6: good for Gore here. Jose Kintana is pitching for the Rockies.
1:05:54
Speaker 6: He's been able to keep them in games, but his
1:05:57
Speaker 6: numbers are pretty concerning. He's got a three point nine seven,
1:06:00
Speaker 6: which is good, but one point four to one whip
1:06:03
Speaker 6: tells you that that era should be higher than that.
1:06:06
Speaker 6: He's been a little bit better at home, surprisingly three
1:06:09
Speaker 6: point seven to eight home era. He is an extreme
1:06:12
Speaker 6: fly ball pitcher pretty much as well, so you'd expect
1:06:15
Speaker 6: that he would be doing worse than this having to
1:06:17
Speaker 6: pitch many many games in course field, but hasn't really
1:06:20
Speaker 6: been the case so far. He's allowed three or fewer
1:06:24
Speaker 6: earned runs in all but one of his outings, but
1:06:26
Speaker 6: he's not going deep into most of his outings. They're
1:06:29
Speaker 6: ramping him up a little bit, but they are kind
1:06:31
Speaker 6: of keeping him on a pitch count, it looks like.
1:06:33
Speaker 6: But his main concern here sixteen to sixteen strike out
1:06:37
Speaker 6: walk ratio. I mean, come on, man, I know he
1:06:39
Speaker 6: doesn't strike many guys out, but that is a horrible ratio.
1:06:43
Speaker 6: Too many walks as well, but he's allowed fewer than
1:06:45
Speaker 6: one hit per ending Somehow this month he's basically been
1:06:48
Speaker 6: exactly like that seven to five strike out walk ratio
1:06:52
Speaker 6: somehow a two point eight seven ERA across three starts
1:06:55
Speaker 6: this month, which I don't really buy that because the
1:06:57
Speaker 6: other numbers are just not good enough to support that
1:07:01
Speaker 6: the that the era should be that good. And he's
1:07:04
Speaker 6: allowed almost one hit per inning this month, which is whatever.
1:07:07
Speaker 6: That's fine. He will be facing Texas, who are not
1:07:10
Speaker 6: the greatest offense, though, and he's actually done well against
1:07:13
Speaker 6: them in his history. He's sixty four at bats two
1:07:16
Speaker 6: h three average, six forty one oh ps, twenty to
1:07:19
Speaker 6: seven strike out walk ratiom, which is not excellent. But
1:07:23
Speaker 6: as crazy as it sounds, I'm I might lean Colorado
1:07:28
Speaker 6: first five. Here man Gore, I mean, his road numbers
1:07:32
Speaker 6: worrying me, his matchup numbers worrying me. Kintana actually has
1:07:35
Speaker 6: the better matchup numbers. Seems insane because normally I would
1:07:39
Speaker 6: prefer Gore over Kintana. But we have fifty five percent
1:07:42
Speaker 6: of tickets eighty three percent of the cash on Colorado.
1:07:45
Speaker 6: If I was gonna go Colorado, it would be first five.
1:07:48
Speaker 6: You'll get them as an underdog. You don't want to
1:07:50
Speaker 6: include their bullpend, though Texas definitely has a bullpen advantage.
1:07:54
Speaker 6: Texas is around the minus one forty five favorite here.
1:07:58
Speaker 6: Some of it is the price, like maybe the rice
1:08:00
Speaker 6: is just not totally justified here, especially with a Texas
1:08:03
Speaker 6: team that really can't hit well. That might be the
1:08:07
Speaker 6: way that I look. Quintana is a concern though, So
1:08:10
Speaker 6: maybe another potential way of playing this is to go
1:08:13
Speaker 6: with Colorado over their team total. That would be another
1:08:16
Speaker 6: way to play this. The totals at nine and a half,
1:08:18
Speaker 6: which is pretty reasonable for a course field game. So
1:08:22
Speaker 6: you probably need Colorado to score. I don't know what
1:08:27
Speaker 6: would you need them to score because they're the underdog here.
1:08:29
Speaker 6: You probably need them to score five runs maybe, which
1:08:32
Speaker 6: is doable I think in this game. But you worry
1:08:35
Speaker 6: about the Texas bullpen in that type of situation though,
1:08:39
Speaker 6: So I don't know, man, but those are my thoughts
1:08:41
Speaker 6: on it. Maybe first five Colorado is an underdog does
1:08:44
Speaker 6: make some sense there, Garrett, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Yes,
1:08:49
Speaker 6: I do two weeks off for the Canes that is Yeah,
1:08:53
Speaker 6: you know that's not good. It's an absolute momentum killer. Yeah,
1:08:59
Speaker 6: I'm going to play. I'm gonna give out a play
1:09:01
Speaker 6: against them in game one of the next series. I
1:09:03
Speaker 6: don't even care who the opponent is, I'm gonna recommend
1:09:06
Speaker 6: playing against them. I'll probably make it a play, even
1:09:09
Speaker 6: though I think Caroline is clearly the way better team
1:09:12
Speaker 6: regardless of who the opponent is. But it's gonna be
1:09:15
Speaker 6: a horrible spot. You're rooting for the Rockies. Yeah, that
1:09:20
Speaker 6: is tough times though, having to root for the Rockies.
1:09:25
Speaker 6: All right. As at Anaheim here, Anaheim has really been
1:09:31
Speaker 6: playing badly. But they did just get you know, I mean,
1:09:34
Speaker 6: they ran into a buzz saw the Dodgers. The Dodgers
1:09:37
Speaker 6: absolutely embarrassed them, though at home for the Angels. No less,
1:09:42
Speaker 6: the Angels gave up double digit runs in the last
1:09:44
Speaker 6: two games. They got outscored by a combined score of
1:09:48
Speaker 6: thirty one to three in that series by the Dodgers. Now,
1:09:52
Speaker 6: luckily for them, they get to play a team that
1:09:54
Speaker 6: is not the Dodgers. Maybe Anaheim will bounce back from that.
1:09:58
Speaker 6: I mean, that was just ridiculou you get blown out
1:10:01
Speaker 6: like that, you usually come out with a little bit
1:10:03
Speaker 6: more intensity, I would say, even though baseball is not
1:10:05
Speaker 6: exactly a sport where the intensity takes precedence. Anaheim did
1:10:11
Speaker 6: lose in a sweep to Cleveland the series before that, too,
1:10:15
Speaker 6: Anaheim is not playing good baseball. Man. Their offense is
1:10:17
Speaker 6: completely falling off. Their bullpen is terrible. The A's, though
1:10:21
Speaker 6: their bullpen's not very good either. The A's do have
1:10:24
Speaker 6: a much better offense. The A's could be in a
1:10:26
Speaker 6: bounce back spot too, though they're staying in California and
1:10:29
Speaker 6: they just lost pretty ugly ten to one yesterday to
1:10:32
Speaker 6: the Giants and wound up losing that series. That's pretty ugly,
1:10:35
Speaker 6: so maybe the A's will be in a bounced back
1:10:38
Speaker 6: spot as well here coming in to face Anaheim here.
1:10:41
Speaker 6: At least, Anaheim's pitching is way worse than San Francisco's.
1:10:45
Speaker 6: Anaheim used four relief pitchers yesterday. Probably not great. Their
1:10:50
Speaker 6: bullpen's not good anyway, A's used three relief pitchers. I
1:10:54
Speaker 6: think the A's bullpen is slightly better. They're ranked twenty fifth.
1:10:58
Speaker 6: Anaheim's ranked twenty seventh. ANIEI as the second worst bullpen
1:11:02
Speaker 6: ERA and it's almost a run higher than the A's,
1:11:05
Speaker 6: so Anaheims bill both bullpen's are untrustworthy, but Anaheims is
1:11:09
Speaker 6: really bad. The A's have been a good hitting team
1:11:11
Speaker 6: though they're eighth, but probably a little bit better at home.
1:11:14
Speaker 6: Although the Angels stadium I believe is pretty hitter friendly
1:11:18
Speaker 6: as well. A Anaheims all the way down to twenty
1:11:21
Speaker 6: fourth offensively. Now they've fallen off a cliff offensively and
1:11:26
Speaker 6: they're facing J. T. Gin here for the A's, who
1:11:29
Speaker 6: is pitching pretty well this year, three point one two ERA,
1:11:32
Speaker 6: one point two whip. He's been way better on the road,
1:11:35
Speaker 6: which obviously makes sense because the A's stadium is where
1:11:38
Speaker 6: pitchers go to die. That Triple A Stadium is so
1:11:42
Speaker 6: bad they got to get their new stadium done. Man,
1:11:45
Speaker 6: He's got a one point four to eight road ERA though,
1:11:47
Speaker 6: so he is pretty good on the road. He actually
1:11:50
Speaker 6: pitched well at home last time out. I give up
1:11:53
Speaker 6: nowhere and runs against Saint Louis and six innings pitch
1:11:56
Speaker 6: well there. He's only given up one earned run combined
1:11:59
Speaker 6: over his last two stars over fourteen innings this month,
1:12:02
Speaker 6: he has a two point nine to five ERA. But
1:12:04
Speaker 6: he did bad against Cleveland. He had five walks in
1:12:07
Speaker 6: that outing, but that does look a little bit more
1:12:09
Speaker 6: of an outlier than anything else, which gives him a
1:12:12
Speaker 6: fifteen to seven strike out walk ratio this month. Because
1:12:15
Speaker 6: you know, I'm trying to look at current form here. Overall,
1:12:19
Speaker 6: his numbers still his walk number is kind of too
1:12:21
Speaker 6: high on the course of the season, though his strike
1:12:23
Speaker 6: out rate is not that high. He doesn't strike a
1:12:25
Speaker 6: lot of guys out, doesn't allow a lot of hits
1:12:28
Speaker 6: though he's allowed way fewer than one hit per inning.
1:12:31
Speaker 6: His walk rate is a little bit high though, and
1:12:32
Speaker 6: his strike out rate is low. But gin has been
1:12:35
Speaker 6: fairly effective anyway, and in fact, the A's have won
1:12:38
Speaker 6: most of his starts. They've won eight of his ten
1:12:41
Speaker 6: starts this season, so there is that. It does mean
1:12:44
Speaker 6: he might get some run support behind him as well, though,
1:12:47
Speaker 6: But his numbers overall are good against Anaheim. Where are
1:12:51
Speaker 6: we at here? He hasn't been as good against Anaheim
1:12:55
Speaker 6: though he's got twenty nine at bats against him. I
1:12:57
Speaker 6: know it's not a huge sample, but Tony six average
1:13:00
Speaker 6: allowed eight seventeen ops seven to one strike out walk raciers,
1:13:04
Speaker 6: So it's not great his numbers here against these bats, So,
1:13:10
Speaker 6: you know, maybe not the greatest spot to back in here.
1:13:13
Speaker 6: Walbert Uraine is pitching for the Angels. He's trying to
1:13:17
Speaker 6: get his career, you know, off the ground here. He's
1:13:19
Speaker 6: still really young man. He might wind up being an alright, pitcher.
1:13:23
Speaker 6: He's got a good ERA three point twenty nine, but
1:13:25
Speaker 6: his whip is definitely too high one point four to three.
1:13:29
Speaker 6: He's been pretty good at home though, two point one
1:13:32
Speaker 6: to two homey RA three runs better than his ROADIRA,
1:13:35
Speaker 6: so he's been good at home. He's actually been really
1:13:38
Speaker 6: good this month except for the walks. He's got a
1:13:40
Speaker 6: two point two five ERA. He's only allowed seven hits
1:13:43
Speaker 6: in sixteen innings across three starts this month, and he's
1:13:46
Speaker 6: allowed two or fewer earned runs in all of them.
1:13:49
Speaker 6: And in fact, he's allowed two or fewer earn runs
1:13:51
Speaker 6: and all but one outing this season, and they're letting
1:13:54
Speaker 6: him start to go deeper into these outings. He's got
1:13:56
Speaker 6: to get the walk number down though. Man, that's the problem.
1:13:59
Speaker 6: Thirteen is Evans strike a walk ratio this month twenty
1:14:02
Speaker 6: six to seventeen on the season. That is way too
1:14:05
Speaker 6: many walks. The strike gut rate is fine, it's a
1:14:08
Speaker 6: little bit below one per inning. The hit rate is fine,
1:14:10
Speaker 6: it's below one per inning. The wildness has got to
1:14:14
Speaker 6: be fixed, which it is fixable. You can definitely fix
1:14:17
Speaker 6: something like that. Will your rain you pitch well here
1:14:20
Speaker 6: against the A's, maybe They've never faced him before, so
1:14:23
Speaker 6: he does have that added advantage of not having been
1:14:26
Speaker 6: seen before where his Gin is familiar to Anaheim, so
1:14:30
Speaker 6: Anaheim and the Anaheim has decent numbers against him. Anaheim
1:14:33
Speaker 6: staying at home off is such an embarrassing series. I
1:14:37
Speaker 6: kind of like Anaheim in this one. Man. They're getting
1:14:39
Speaker 6: an underdog price here because nobody knows who Urina is.
1:14:42
Speaker 6: But he does look like he's fixing his uh. I mean,
1:14:46
Speaker 6: he looks like he is getting better at the very least.
1:14:49
Speaker 6: We're looking at about minus one twenty five or so
1:14:51
Speaker 6: on the A's here. Money is all coming out on
1:14:54
Speaker 6: an Anaheim sixty three percent of tickets on the A's
1:14:56
Speaker 6: ninety one percent of the cash on Anaheim. Think I'm
1:15:00
Speaker 6: gonna lean that way. I kind of agree with that.
1:15:02
Speaker 6: I think I like Anaheim here. The money is also
1:15:04
Speaker 6: coming in towards the over which I could see that.
1:15:07
Speaker 6: I mean, even though Gin is better on the road,
1:15:10
Speaker 6: his matchup numbers aren't really that good. Uranium could potentially
1:15:15
Speaker 6: give up some runs and then you got two really
1:15:17
Speaker 6: bad bullpens. So obviously if you go over here, you
1:15:19
Speaker 6: gotta go full game with that to include the bullpens.
1:15:23
Speaker 6: But I think, you know, Anaheim makes sense to me
1:15:25
Speaker 6: as an underdog here. First five Anaheim makes sense too.
1:15:28
Speaker 6: If you want to avoid maybe you want to do
1:15:30
Speaker 6: it that way, just avoid their bullpen. Maybe Anaheim comes
1:15:33
Speaker 6: out with some focus early in the game. They might
1:15:37
Speaker 6: have a little bit of a starting you know, they
1:15:39
Speaker 6: started pitching. Let's just say this. I think the starting
1:15:42
Speaker 6: pitching edge is not that significant for the A's at
1:15:45
Speaker 6: the very least, and excluding Anaheim's bullpen probably does make sense.
1:15:49
Speaker 6: So I think first five Anaheim makes sense in that
1:15:52
Speaker 6: game mention you sab, what's up man? ESPN. Dude there,
1:15:59
Speaker 6: They're never gonna have me on because I'm damaged goods.
1:16:02
Speaker 6: Everybody knows who I am and knows you know, everybody
1:16:05
Speaker 6: knows about my ukulele cover and whatever. I mean, if
1:16:11
Speaker 6: people want winners, that's what I'm doing. I'm giving up
1:16:13
Speaker 6: winners on the show. But that's probably not enough. I mean,
1:16:17
Speaker 6: I don't know. I was a talented I am a
1:16:19
Speaker 6: talented engineer and I and nobody wants to hire me.
1:16:22
Speaker 6: So you know, you have to like, this is how
1:16:27
Speaker 6: fucked up society is, how how upside down society is.
1:16:32
Speaker 6: Your talent means nothing anymore. The only thing that matters
1:16:36
Speaker 6: is do you fall in line with the with the
1:16:41
Speaker 6: people in power. That's the only thing that matters now.
1:16:43
Speaker 6: That matters way more than your actual talent. That's just
1:16:49
Speaker 6: the way that it is. Except in sports, though, interestingly,
1:16:54
Speaker 6: like athletes can get away with it, you know what
1:16:56
Speaker 6: I mean, at least to at least to a certain extent,
1:16:59
Speaker 6: they can. So I don't know. It's because it's real
1:17:02
Speaker 6: big money, not sports betting though athletes professional sports. All right,
1:17:07
Speaker 6: next game will be my last play, White Sox at
1:17:10
Speaker 6: Seattle nine to ESPN unlimited. Let's go with this one.
1:17:22
Speaker 6: I first looked at this game and I like both
1:17:24
Speaker 6: starting pitchers, so you would think that this looks like
1:17:26
Speaker 6: a toad underplay. But that's not what I'm doing here.
1:17:29
Speaker 6: I'm gonna give out Seattle here. Unfortunate. I'm gonna have
1:17:32
Speaker 6: to go against my man Noah Schultz here and go
1:17:35
Speaker 6: with my other man, Brian Wu. But it's a combination
1:17:39
Speaker 6: of a bunch of things. I'm gonna lean see. I'm
1:17:40
Speaker 6: gonna give give out Seattle as a play here, Dude,
1:17:44
Speaker 6: I am sick of Streamyard putting these timers on these things.
1:17:48
Speaker 6: There you go Seattle minus one and a half on
1:17:50
Speaker 6: the run line at plus one thirty five and the
1:17:53
Speaker 6: rest of it on the minus one seventy money line.
1:17:55
Speaker 6: I can show you the split that it came out
1:17:57
Speaker 6: to here if you do it at two books, or
1:17:59
Speaker 6: you find a minus one run line at some book,
1:18:02
Speaker 6: if it's out of one hundred to try to win,
1:18:04
Speaker 6: one hundred, seventy two of it would go on the
1:18:07
Speaker 6: minus one seventy money line, and then whenever that returns,
1:18:10
Speaker 6: you put the rest of that on the run line,
1:18:12
Speaker 6: and that comes out to minus one fifteen, which is
1:18:15
Speaker 6: a pretty good price. I think on the minus one
1:18:18
Speaker 6: run line. We did it yesterday with Cleveland and we
1:18:20
Speaker 6: got the job done. Of course, to win the bet,
1:18:22
Speaker 6: they do need to win by two, and that's asking
1:18:25
Speaker 6: kind of a lot, you know, of a home team
1:18:27
Speaker 6: in a low scoring environment here. But I think I
1:18:31
Speaker 6: want to do it anyway Seattle. I mean, first of all,
1:18:36
Speaker 6: you just look at this, like the White Sox have
1:18:37
Speaker 6: been really, really hot, and I don't think people are
1:18:41
Speaker 6: gonna want Seattle here, Like why is Seattle laying minus
1:18:43
Speaker 6: one seventy here when they're a below five hundred team?
1:18:46
Speaker 6: White Sox are above five hundred, but I think the
1:18:49
Speaker 6: stock is just about as high as it's gonna be
1:18:51
Speaker 6: on the White Sox, dude. So that's why I like Seattle.
1:18:54
Speaker 6: Here the oddsmakers are telling you Seattle is the better team.
1:18:57
Speaker 6: The stock on them, in my opinion, is low because
1:19:00
Speaker 6: they just lost three games in a row. They got
1:19:02
Speaker 6: swept by San Diego at home. So a lot of
1:19:06
Speaker 6: times when you get embarrassed at home, you do you know,
1:19:09
Speaker 6: you stick it around at home and you bounce back.
1:19:12
Speaker 6: So I think it is a bounce back spot for Seattle.
1:19:14
Speaker 6: I don't think there as bad as the record indicates here.
1:19:17
Speaker 6: They obviously have a huge bullpen edge, so that is
1:19:20
Speaker 6: also part of it, which I'm gonna talk about in
1:19:21
Speaker 6: a second. But for the White Sox, again, I think
1:19:23
Speaker 6: the stock is way too high at this point. I
1:19:26
Speaker 6: think they're obviously better than they were the last couple
1:19:28
Speaker 6: of years, but I don't think they're this good. They
1:19:30
Speaker 6: have won seven of their last eight games now, including
1:19:35
Speaker 6: beating the Cobs, and they won against the Cubs to
1:19:37
Speaker 6: win the series yesterday. In their huge intercity rivalry game
1:19:43
Speaker 6: rivalry series, they won in extra innings in dramatic fashion yesterday.
1:19:47
Speaker 6: Now they got to travel to the Pacific coast. I
1:19:49
Speaker 6: think this is a bad spot. Like usually I do
1:19:52
Speaker 6: like teams when they're starting a road trip, but I
1:19:54
Speaker 6: don't like this here. And man, I think they're in
1:19:56
Speaker 6: a major letdown spot coming off of that series. So
1:19:59
Speaker 6: I like Seattle as far as the situation is concerned,
1:20:02
Speaker 6: But there are also other things that I like about this.
1:20:05
Speaker 6: The White Sox. I don't like their bullpen, and they
1:20:07
Speaker 6: use a lot of it yesterday, so that factors into
1:20:09
Speaker 6: this handicap. They use five relief pitchers and their bullpen's
1:20:13
Speaker 6: not even good. Seattle used three, but they basically didn't
1:20:16
Speaker 6: use any of their better relief pitchers yesterday because the
1:20:19
Speaker 6: game was already out of reach. So I think we
1:20:21
Speaker 6: have a big bullpen edge for Seattle here. Even though
1:20:24
Speaker 6: they ranked nineteenth, they have one of the best bullpenny rays,
1:20:28
Speaker 6: so I think they're a good bullpen. The White Sox
1:20:30
Speaker 6: are not. They're twenty fourth and their eras one and
1:20:33
Speaker 6: a half runs higher. Plus they have the rest disadvantage
1:20:37
Speaker 6: on top of that, so yes, we have to play
1:20:39
Speaker 6: full game here. Factor in the bullpens, White Sox are
1:20:42
Speaker 6: seventh in offense I know their offense has been good.
1:20:47
Speaker 6: I am hesitant to say that they're really this good
1:20:50
Speaker 6: though in Seattle I know hasn't been hitting well. They're
1:20:52
Speaker 6: at twenty second. But to me, I don't think there's
1:20:54
Speaker 6: that big of a gap between these two teams offensively. Like,
1:20:59
Speaker 6: I know, baseball is weird and things can happen, but
1:21:01
Speaker 6: you look at what these teams did last year and
1:21:03
Speaker 6: the personnel is pretty similar. Yeah, Chicago is improved off
1:21:07
Speaker 6: of last year. Seattle's probably not as good as last year.
1:21:10
Speaker 6: But even if you factor all that in, that doesn't
1:21:12
Speaker 6: mean that Chicago was all of a sudden way way
1:21:15
Speaker 6: better on offense than Seattle is, even though they have
1:21:18
Speaker 6: been this season so far. But I think that it's
1:21:20
Speaker 6: a little like I don't think it's gonna last, is
1:21:22
Speaker 6: what I'm saying. And we're going to get to Noah's Schultz.
1:21:25
Speaker 6: I know, even though I like him, I think he
1:21:27
Speaker 6: is going to be good, but he is struggling with
1:21:30
Speaker 6: his wildness here. He's got a four point nine to
1:21:32
Speaker 6: winnyra one point three to six whip. Like I said, man,
1:21:36
Speaker 6: he's got the same frame as Randy Johnson, even though
1:21:39
Speaker 6: his stuff is different. He doesn't quite throw one hundred
1:21:41
Speaker 6: miles an hour or whatever, but he throws a really,
1:21:43
Speaker 6: really hard sinker. But just like Randy Johnson, I don't know, man,
1:21:49
Speaker 6: it seems to be like when you're this tall, you
1:21:51
Speaker 6: have issues like trying to figure out your motion whatever.
1:21:54
Speaker 6: He does not have significant home roads splits. He's been
1:21:57
Speaker 6: exactly the same ray wise, both home and away, but
1:22:00
Speaker 6: he's really struggling over his last couple of outings. He
1:22:02
Speaker 6: was pitching well for a while, but his last two
1:22:05
Speaker 6: outings have been bad. Give up seven runs at Anaheim
1:22:08
Speaker 6: and they've stopped being able to hit. And then he
1:22:11
Speaker 6: gave up three earned runs against Kansas City and he
1:22:13
Speaker 6: didn't even make it past four to third innings in
1:22:15
Speaker 6: either outing. He walked a ton of guys. This month.
1:22:18
Speaker 6: He has a six point four to three ERA, twelve
1:22:21
Speaker 6: walks and eight strikeouts. That's just not gonna do it, man,
1:22:25
Speaker 6: not gonna get the job done. Even though he's still
1:22:27
Speaker 6: been hard to hit, He's only a lot of eleven
1:22:29
Speaker 6: hits in fourteen innings. Overall, he has way below one
1:22:32
Speaker 6: hit per inning. That's all good. The walks are just
1:22:35
Speaker 6: crazy though. He's walking way too many guys he's walking,
1:22:39
Speaker 6: you know, not quite but getting close to one guy
1:22:41
Speaker 6: per inning. You can't do that. And his strikeout rate
1:22:44
Speaker 6: is lower than one per inning. So there are some
1:22:47
Speaker 6: issues with him. And I know Seattle hasn't seen him before,
1:22:51
Speaker 6: so he does have that advantage of being unfamiliar to Seattle.
1:22:54
Speaker 6: But I just like too many components of this to
1:22:57
Speaker 6: pass this up. Brian Wu is pitching for Seattle. Maybe
1:23:02
Speaker 6: he is still their best pitcher, man. I mean I
1:23:04
Speaker 6: said it might be Kirby. I'm pretty sure Kirby was
1:23:07
Speaker 6: not that good yesterday. Brian Wu. It's his time, man,
1:23:10
Speaker 6: Let's get this thing done. Wu has been good, a
1:23:13
Speaker 6: three point nine to one Era one whip. He's usually
1:23:16
Speaker 6: better at home, which he is again this year three
1:23:18
Speaker 6: point sixy Ray. He had a bit of a bad stretcher.
1:23:22
Speaker 6: He had two bad starts, but he's bounced back really
1:23:24
Speaker 6: well since then. He's gone six innings a piece, and
1:23:27
Speaker 6: each of his last two starts against good offenses Atlanta
1:23:30
Speaker 6: and Houston on the road. Atlanta was at home, Houston
1:23:34
Speaker 6: on the road. He one hit shutout Atlanta, and then
1:23:37
Speaker 6: he had a two run, six inning performance against Houston,
1:23:41
Speaker 6: and he had a combined eighteen to four strike out
1:23:43
Speaker 6: walk Ragio over that span of two games, twenty to
1:23:46
Speaker 6: four over the course of this month. So he's pitching
1:23:49
Speaker 6: well in my opinion. Even that start against Kansas City
1:23:52
Speaker 6: wasn't really that bad. He got a little bit unlucky
1:23:56
Speaker 6: to allow six runs there. So he is pitching well.
1:23:58
Speaker 6: He's in good form. We've seen so much of him
1:24:01
Speaker 6: at this way, and we know he's a really good pitcher,
1:24:04
Speaker 6: and he pitches better at home because he gives up
1:24:06
Speaker 6: way too many fly balls. He's got good numbers overall. Man,
1:24:10
Speaker 6: his strike cut rate's not really that high, but he
1:24:12
Speaker 6: has a very low walk rate. His hit rate is
1:24:14
Speaker 6: very low as well, less than one per inning. So yeah,
1:24:17
Speaker 6: he's good. And he's going up against who are you
1:24:21
Speaker 6: even talking about here? Oh, yes, the White Sox. He's
1:24:24
Speaker 6: got good numbers against him. I know it's a small
1:24:26
Speaker 6: sampall twenty two at bats, but he's tell him to
1:24:29
Speaker 6: a one thirty six average, five to twenty seven OPS,
1:24:32
Speaker 6: nine to two strike out walk ratio, Ben and tend
1:24:34
Speaker 6: He does have a home run off him, But other
1:24:37
Speaker 6: than that, I mean, not a lot going on here.
1:24:39
Speaker 6: None of their hitters have really had much success against him,
1:24:42
Speaker 6: So we're gonna do it. We're gonna go with Seattle
1:24:44
Speaker 6: in what I think is the better spot. I think
1:24:46
Speaker 6: they have the better pitching matchup. The money seems like
1:24:48
Speaker 6: it agrees with me, sixty four percent of tickets, ninety
1:24:51
Speaker 6: five percent of the cash on them. So we're going
1:24:54
Speaker 6: with two baseball favorites here. That's the way it panned out.
1:24:59
Speaker 6: Man looks like he might be able to a slightly
1:25:00
Speaker 6: better price on this right now. It looks like it's
1:25:03
Speaker 6: in the minus one sixty five range now, so you
1:25:05
Speaker 6: can go check it out. The money's also coming in
1:25:08
Speaker 6: towards the over in this game. The total is low.
1:25:10
Speaker 6: It's at around seven seven and a half. I'm not
1:25:14
Speaker 6: sure about the over, man. I think more components in
1:25:17
Speaker 6: this game kind of set up for an under than
1:25:19
Speaker 6: an over, which which I know doesn't really help us
1:25:22
Speaker 6: when we need the home team to win by multiple
1:25:24
Speaker 6: runs here. But I think it might be a lower
1:25:26
Speaker 6: scoring game. I think Schultz still might potentially do okay here,
1:25:30
Speaker 6: but you really do have to worry about the White
1:25:32
Speaker 6: Sox bullpen. Seattle's bullpen could certainly do well here. I
1:25:36
Speaker 6: don't know. I don't have a good feel for the total. Though,
1:25:38
Speaker 6: even though when I first looked at this pitching matchup,
1:25:40
Speaker 6: I said, I think this is gonna be an under
1:25:43
Speaker 6: But when I dug into it more, I landed on
1:25:45
Speaker 6: Seattle as a side, as a play man. So that's
1:25:50
Speaker 6: the way that it is. Sometimes the game, you think
1:25:53
Speaker 6: it's gonna be one thing, and then you wind up
1:25:55
Speaker 6: thinking strongly about a different aspect of the game. All Right,
1:25:58
Speaker 6: we have Dodger San Diego. This is gonna be a
1:26:00
Speaker 6: big series. The Dodgers only lead the division by a
1:26:03
Speaker 6: half game. Both teams are hot right now. The Dodgers
1:26:07
Speaker 6: just Padres, just swept Seattle. The Dodgers just swept Anaheim,
1:26:12
Speaker 6: and they've won five in a row. Dodgers are traveling
1:26:15
Speaker 6: in from Anaheim, which is not really a big deal. Uh,
1:26:18
Speaker 6: San Diego's coming in from Seattle, so they're doing a
1:26:21
Speaker 6: little bit more travel. They're actually returning home from a
1:26:23
Speaker 6: road trip. So normally I would say it's a bad spot.
1:26:26
Speaker 6: It's a return home spot. I still think it is
1:26:28
Speaker 6: a negative because you have to get back to home life.
1:26:31
Speaker 6: San Diego was in Milwaukee and then Seattle. They're returning
1:26:35
Speaker 6: home from that. But you're playing the Dodgers. Man, you're
1:26:37
Speaker 6: not gonna overlook the Dodgers, so I think that negates
1:26:41
Speaker 6: the distraction spot a little bit there. This starting pitching matchup. Look,
1:26:46
Speaker 6: you know, you look at this game and you think
1:26:48
Speaker 6: this is clearly an under as well we have you know, see,
1:26:51
Speaker 6: San Diego is a picture friendly park, just like Seattle is.
1:26:55
Speaker 6: So these two starting pitchers are both really good. This
1:26:57
Speaker 6: looks like an under when you start digging into that, though,
1:27:01
Speaker 6: I'm gonna say it's not an under him. I'm gonna
1:27:04
Speaker 6: show you in a second. San Diego does have a
1:27:06
Speaker 6: good bullpen. The only these two relief pitchers yesterday. Their
1:27:08
Speaker 6: better relievers are pretty much all available. So San Diego's
1:27:12
Speaker 6: bullpen does set up pretty well here. Dodgers' bullpen, uh
1:27:16
Speaker 6: sets up fine as well. They used two relief pitchers yesterday.
1:27:19
Speaker 6: Their bullpen's been good as well. Dodgers actually ranked second
1:27:22
Speaker 6: in bullpen right now Padres or Padre sixth. Excuse me,
1:27:27
Speaker 6: but we have two good bullpens. I think the bullpen's
1:27:29
Speaker 6: set up well in this game. Hitting wise, the Dodgers
1:27:32
Speaker 6: are back atop those standings. They're number one. San Diego
1:27:36
Speaker 6: is twenty eighth, So there there was a huge offensive
1:27:39
Speaker 6: edge for the Dodgers. Here. Dodgers have Yama Moto pitching.
1:27:44
Speaker 6: He's been really good, man, And you know, the more
1:27:47
Speaker 6: that I think about it, you know, I think I
1:27:49
Speaker 6: don't know was it Jeffrey back in the day was
1:27:51
Speaker 6: talking about how Yama Moto you know, I don't know,
1:27:54
Speaker 6: like he didn't have the right mental fortitude or whatever
1:27:56
Speaker 6: I think he was. He was completely confused, man, which
1:27:59
Speaker 6: I did say time he was thinking of Sasaki. Obviously,
1:28:02
Speaker 6: Sasaki is the guy who you know, was out there
1:28:05
Speaker 6: like crying when he had bad starts or whatever. Yamamoto,
1:28:08
Speaker 6: I'm pretty sure wasn't any of the World Series MVP.
1:28:11
Speaker 6: I think he picked up three wins in the World Series,
1:28:15
Speaker 6: so he was obviously pitching really well in pressure situations.
1:28:18
Speaker 6: So yeah, Yamamoto has a lot more mental forward to
1:28:22
Speaker 6: two than Sasaki. I just was reminded of that. Anyway,
1:28:26
Speaker 6: Yamamoto is pitching well here. Three point sixty RA one whip.
1:28:30
Speaker 6: Obviously we know he's good. He's been a little bit
1:28:33
Speaker 6: better on the road as well. Three point three to two.
1:28:35
Speaker 6: Roady Ray wasn't that great in his last outing. You
1:28:38
Speaker 6: give up five and runs against San Francisco, but he
1:28:41
Speaker 6: had eight strikeouts and no walks in the game, so
1:28:43
Speaker 6: I think he got unlucky. He allowed three home runs.
1:28:46
Speaker 6: Overall this month. He has a sixteen to one strikeout
1:28:49
Speaker 6: walk ratio, so it's not like he's pitching poorly and
1:28:52
Speaker 6: he's allowed one. He's allowed fewer than one hit per inning,
1:28:57
Speaker 6: is what I mean to say as well. Overall, his
1:28:59
Speaker 6: numbers are good, even though strikeout rates not enormous. It's
1:29:02
Speaker 6: close to one per inning. He's allowed well below one
1:29:04
Speaker 6: hit per inning. His walk rate is also low. He's
1:29:07
Speaker 6: been good. That most recent start was the first time
1:29:10
Speaker 6: he allowed more than three earned runs. I think he
1:29:13
Speaker 6: is set to bounce back pitching in a pitcher friendly
1:29:16
Speaker 6: park here. The problem is, surprisingly his numbers against San
1:29:19
Speaker 6: Diego are not good. In sixty one a bats two
1:29:22
Speaker 6: ninety five batting average, allowed nine to sixteen oh ps,
1:29:25
Speaker 6: seventeen to six strikeout walk ratio. That is not good.
1:29:29
Speaker 6: Uh so he does not match up well against San Diego,
1:29:32
Speaker 6: so that is a problem. So that already takes the
1:29:35
Speaker 6: under pretty much off the table here. For me, I
1:29:37
Speaker 6: don't want San Diego really returning over from a road trip.
1:29:40
Speaker 6: They got Michael King pitching, he's been good two point
1:29:43
Speaker 6: six y three ERA, one point zero nine WHIP. He's
1:29:46
Speaker 6: been a little bit better at home makes sense pitcher
1:29:49
Speaker 6: friendly park, but he's good either way, but two point
1:29:52
Speaker 6: three to five home ERA. He's been good this month
1:29:55
Speaker 6: for the most part. He's allowed one earned run each
1:29:57
Speaker 6: in his last two outings overall, sixteen to seven strike
1:30:00
Speaker 6: out walk razier this month. It is too many walks though,
1:30:03
Speaker 6: but only fourteen hits a lout at seventeen or two
1:30:05
Speaker 6: thirds innings. This is what he does, dude. He strikes
1:30:08
Speaker 6: out a good amount of guys. He's almost at one
1:30:10
Speaker 6: strike up per inning. He walks too many though. His
1:30:13
Speaker 6: walk rate is high, but he's also very hard to hit.
1:30:16
Speaker 6: He's allowed way below one hit per inning. So that's
1:30:19
Speaker 6: what he does. Overall. He's a good pitcher, but you'd
1:30:21
Speaker 6: like to see him be less wild. But he is
1:30:23
Speaker 6: going up against the La Dodgers, who we know have
1:30:26
Speaker 6: an elite offense, and he hasn't done well against them
1:30:29
Speaker 6: in the past. One hundred and six at bats two
1:30:32
Speaker 6: eighty three batting average allowed nine to sixteen ops, twenty
1:30:36
Speaker 6: five to eleven strike out walk ratio, not a lot
1:30:39
Speaker 6: to really like about these numbers here. So you know,
1:30:43
Speaker 6: you look at this game and you see a good
1:30:44
Speaker 6: pitching matchup and you think under, and then you look
1:30:46
Speaker 6: at the Star any pitching numbers here, the matchup numbers.
1:30:50
Speaker 6: I actually lean over in this game. I don't want
1:30:53
Speaker 6: to do it. I mean, the bullpens are both good,
1:30:55
Speaker 6: but you know, I don't really do first five overs.
1:30:59
Speaker 6: I just think that if the Star already pitching is poor,
1:31:02
Speaker 6: then the bullpen's come in earlier and it just kind
1:31:04
Speaker 6: of has a domino effect, you know.
1:31:06
Speaker 3: Uh.
1:31:06
Speaker 6: The total seven and a half, which makes sense because
1:31:09
Speaker 6: this is what looks like an elite pitching matchup between
1:31:12
Speaker 6: two really good pitchers, but the matchup numbers just don't
1:31:15
Speaker 6: support it. The money's coming in on the over, and
1:31:17
Speaker 6: I actually I do agree. Fifty two percent of tickets
1:31:20
Speaker 6: eighty one percent of the cash on the over. Normally,
1:31:23
Speaker 6: if the numbers this low on the total, you want
1:31:25
Speaker 6: to go under. But that's not what I would do here. Uh,
1:31:28
Speaker 6: seven and a half is the number. Yeah, I would.
1:31:31
Speaker 6: I would lean over in that game. Very rare that
1:31:35
Speaker 6: I like an over a low total like that, because
1:31:38
Speaker 6: usually the low total is telling you it should be
1:31:40
Speaker 6: a low scoring game, Dodgers are getting some of the
1:31:43
Speaker 6: money fifty three percent of tickets, fifty percent of the
1:31:46
Speaker 6: cash on them, they're around minus one fifty. I don't
1:31:50
Speaker 6: really see a huge edge one way or the other.
1:31:52
Speaker 6: We have, you have two good starting pitchers, they both
1:31:54
Speaker 6: have bed matchup numbers. The bullpens are pretty even here
1:31:57
Speaker 6: as well, so this seems like a really even matchup
1:32:00
Speaker 6: to me. And that being the case, that would you know,
1:32:03
Speaker 6: have you leaning towards San Diego, right, because if they're
1:32:05
Speaker 6: the home team as an underdog, these teams seem very
1:32:09
Speaker 6: evenly matched in the matchup, it makes sense to lean
1:32:12
Speaker 6: towards the underdog. But they're returning on from a road trip,
1:32:15
Speaker 6: so I can't really do that either. But over it
1:32:18
Speaker 6: would be my preference in that game, which sounds insane,
1:32:21
Speaker 6: but that is what it is. And then we have
1:32:23
Speaker 6: San Francisco at Arizona. Arizona is returning on from a
1:32:26
Speaker 6: road trip. They went to Texas and Colorado. Returning on
1:32:31
Speaker 6: from the road, you know a lot of times you
1:32:32
Speaker 6: get distracted, you get back to home life, whatever. San
1:32:35
Speaker 6: Francisco is a few games behind Arizona in the standings,
1:32:38
Speaker 6: so they might not fully pay attention to San Francisco here.
1:32:42
Speaker 6: San Francisco is in the middle of a road trip.
1:32:44
Speaker 6: They're coming in after beating the A's, But maybe they
1:32:47
Speaker 6: could be in a little bit of a letdown spot
1:32:49
Speaker 6: because they won the Battle of the Bay here and
1:32:52
Speaker 6: they embarrassed their rival yesterday, the A's, So maybe it's
1:32:55
Speaker 6: a little bit of a letdown for San Francisco here,
1:32:57
Speaker 6: although it is a divisional matchup against a team ahead
1:33:00
Speaker 6: of them in the standings. Arizona used five relief pitchers yesterday,
1:33:04
Speaker 6: but they used two of them for very few pitches,
1:33:06
Speaker 6: so those guys would probably be available again today. San
1:33:10
Speaker 6: Francisco didn't use that many either, they used three. The
1:33:14
Speaker 6: d Backs are still ranked fourth in bullpen, but I
1:33:17
Speaker 6: still don't buy it because they have a four and
1:33:18
Speaker 6: a half bullpen era. I don't like that the Giants
1:33:23
Speaker 6: are ranked. Where are they? Yeah? Where the hell are they?
1:33:28
Speaker 6: The Giants are ranked seventeenth, but their ERA is more
1:33:30
Speaker 6: than a run better than the Diamondbacks. I think the
1:33:33
Speaker 6: Giants have a better bullpen and they're a little bit
1:33:36
Speaker 6: more arrested here. Offensively, the Giants have been really bad
1:33:39
Speaker 6: though they're twenty seventh right now Arizona hasn't really been
1:33:42
Speaker 6: that good either. They're at eighteenth, but I do think
1:33:44
Speaker 6: Arizona is definitely they're definitely a better hitting team, though
1:33:50
Speaker 6: they're going up against Robbie Ray. Though on the surface,
1:33:52
Speaker 6: it looks like San Francisco has a starting pitching advantage here.
1:33:55
Speaker 6: Robbie Ray is having a good season again, three point
1:33:57
Speaker 6: zero four ERA, one point one seven WHIP. He hasn't
1:34:01
Speaker 6: been as good on the road, though, which does make sense.
1:34:03
Speaker 6: San Francisco is a pitcher friendly ballpark. He pitches better
1:34:06
Speaker 6: at home. He's going to a hitter friendly park here
1:34:08
Speaker 6: in Arizona. He's got a four point five ROADI Ray,
1:34:12
Speaker 6: so he's not as good on the road. He struggled
1:34:15
Speaker 6: in his last outing, but it was on the road
1:34:17
Speaker 6: against the Dodgers, so maybe you do give him a
1:34:19
Speaker 6: pass for that because prior to that start he was
1:34:21
Speaker 6: pitching well. He still hasn't allowed more than three on
1:34:24
Speaker 6: runs in any outing this season, so his overall numbers
1:34:27
Speaker 6: are pretty good. Strike got rate pretty good, almost one
1:34:29
Speaker 6: per inning. He's allowed way below one hit per inning,
1:34:32
Speaker 6: but he's allowed ten home runs. That is concerning, especially
1:34:35
Speaker 6: in a fairly home run heavy ballpark like Arizona, and
1:34:39
Speaker 6: he's allowed twenty walks, which is a little bit concerning
1:34:42
Speaker 6: as well. That walk numbers a little bit high, so
1:34:45
Speaker 6: I don't like that. Numbers against Arizona are not good.
1:34:49
Speaker 6: In ninety five at bats twenty seven to fourteen strike
1:34:52
Speaker 6: out walk ratio two eighty four, batting average allowed, nine
1:34:55
Speaker 6: to fifty nine ohps. So he does not do well
1:34:58
Speaker 6: against Arizona are not has really good numbers against him
1:35:01
Speaker 6: in a big sample so you know, maybe maybe a
1:35:04
Speaker 6: hitter prop potential there, but you know, I don't usually do.
1:35:08
Speaker 6: But when you see a guy with a big sample
1:35:10
Speaker 6: size that dominates a pitcher like that, hits plus runs
1:35:13
Speaker 6: plus RBIs to go over whatever the prop number is
1:35:17
Speaker 6: there makes some sense there. Zach Gallan is gonna be
1:35:21
Speaker 6: pitching for Arizona here. He's definitely been struggling this year,
1:35:25
Speaker 6: and man, I don't know what's wrong with him, because
1:35:26
Speaker 6: he was pretty decent a couple of years ago. He
1:35:29
Speaker 6: is not right now. Five point zero two ERA, one
1:35:31
Speaker 6: point five to one whip. That's not good. He's been
1:35:34
Speaker 6: good at home, though, believe it or not, he's been
1:35:36
Speaker 6: way better at home two point six to one home era,
1:35:40
Speaker 6: so he has really significant home road splits, which is
1:35:44
Speaker 6: kind of insane again because Arizona is a hitter friendly ballpark,
1:35:47
Speaker 6: But whatever, he pitches better at home. He's been pretty
1:35:50
Speaker 6: bad this month, although two of those outings have been
1:35:52
Speaker 6: on the road. I would say the best of the three,
1:35:55
Speaker 6: even though it wasn't that great, was a home start
1:35:57
Speaker 6: where he at least lasted six innings against Pitchburg. And
1:36:01
Speaker 6: Pittsburgh is a good offense this year. The Cubs are
1:36:03
Speaker 6: in there as well, They're a good offense. It's not
1:36:06
Speaker 6: a good sign that he did really bad on the
1:36:07
Speaker 6: road against Texas in his last outing, though. I don't
1:36:11
Speaker 6: think I could trust Gallen right now. Man. He's got
1:36:13
Speaker 6: an eight point seven to ninety r ray overall this month,
1:36:15
Speaker 6: and again I know a lot of it was on
1:36:17
Speaker 6: the road. Twelve seven strike up walk ratio. That's not
1:36:20
Speaker 6: gonna do it either. A lot of home runs in there.
1:36:23
Speaker 6: For well over one hip per inning over the course
1:36:26
Speaker 6: of the season, he's allowed well over one hit per inning.
1:36:29
Speaker 6: That's not good. His strikeout rate is low, that's not good.
1:36:32
Speaker 6: He's not fooling hitters. His walk rate is a little
1:36:34
Speaker 6: bit high too. There's not a lot to like about
1:36:37
Speaker 6: Gallon here, other than the fact that his home numbers
1:36:39
Speaker 6: are better. He's going up against a weak lineup, at
1:36:42
Speaker 6: least with San Francisco, and he has actually pitched well
1:36:45
Speaker 6: against them in one hundred and four at bats two
1:36:47
Speaker 6: POO two batting average allowed, five to ninety eight ohps,
1:36:50
Speaker 6: twenty one to seven strike up walk ratio. You know
1:36:54
Speaker 6: the matchup favors Gallen looking at those matchup numbers, but
1:36:57
Speaker 6: the money's coming on a San Francisco and like I said,
1:36:59
Speaker 6: I think the spot is probably a little bit more
1:37:02
Speaker 6: negative for Arizona because they are returning home from a
1:37:05
Speaker 6: road trip. But I do think San Francisco could be
1:37:06
Speaker 6: in a bit of a let down here. Fifty three
1:37:09
Speaker 6: percent of tickets around Arizona, sixty percent of the cash
1:37:11
Speaker 6: on San Francisco money backing Ray here, but he does
1:37:15
Speaker 6: have significantly worse matchup numbers. Money is also coming in
1:37:19
Speaker 6: on the under, which seems kind of crazy to me.
1:37:22
Speaker 6: The totals at nine. Although San Francisco generally has fairly
1:37:25
Speaker 6: good pitching, I think I would lean Arizona, though I
1:37:28
Speaker 6: know they're returning over from a road trip, so I
1:37:30
Speaker 6: really don't want to do it, But I think the
1:37:31
Speaker 6: matchup is actually kind of sneaky where it looks like
1:37:35
Speaker 6: Ray is the way better pitcher here, but you look
1:37:36
Speaker 6: at the matchup and it actually favors Gallen and the
1:37:39
Speaker 6: home road splits favorite Gallen as well. I'm gonna lean
1:37:42
Speaker 6: Arizona slightly here, maybe first five, because I don't like
1:37:45
Speaker 6: Arizona's bullpend So actually, yeah, Arizona first five makes a
1:37:49
Speaker 6: lot of sense here. Ether at around minus one thirty
1:37:52
Speaker 6: five for the full game money line, it's probably not
1:37:55
Speaker 6: too far off from that in the in the first five.
1:37:59
Speaker 6: All right, let's go to WNBA. Here we have two
1:38:04
Speaker 6: WNBA games. The first one is on Peacock and NBC Sports.
1:38:07
Speaker 6: It is Washington at Dallas. I started taking a look
1:38:10
Speaker 6: at this, and I don't love the spot that Washington
1:38:13
Speaker 6: is in. They're two and one, but they're not really
1:38:15
Speaker 6: that great of a team, and they're coming off two
1:38:17
Speaker 6: big overtime performances where they almost pulled off an upset
1:38:21
Speaker 6: against the Liberty, who are one of the best teams.
1:38:24
Speaker 6: Then they won an overtime in the next game against
1:38:26
Speaker 6: Indiana that they don't play a lot of games in
1:38:28
Speaker 6: quick succession, but they're still coming off two big overtime games,
1:38:32
Speaker 6: including an upset on the road of Indiana, which is
1:38:35
Speaker 6: pretty big. Now it is another road game here against Dallas.
1:38:39
Speaker 6: Could be a little bit more of a difficult spot
1:38:40
Speaker 6: here for Washington, So that does have me looking towards
1:38:44
Speaker 6: Dallas here. Dallas, though they're coming off a pretty big
1:38:47
Speaker 6: effort as well. They're staying at home, so the spot
1:38:50
Speaker 6: does look better for Dallas. They're one and two, but
1:38:52
Speaker 6: they have played a more difficult schedule. They played Indiana, Atlanta,
1:38:56
Speaker 6: m Minnesota. There's like no letup with that schedule. Not
1:39:00
Speaker 6: sure how good Dallas really is right now because I
1:39:02
Speaker 6: still think they need to kind of gel as a
1:39:05
Speaker 6: team like they've had the number one draft pick the
1:39:07
Speaker 6: last couple of years, because they've been a bad team
1:39:09
Speaker 6: the last couple of years. I think they're more of
1:39:11
Speaker 6: a mediocre team right now, but they are favored in
1:39:15
Speaker 6: this game here. I think Washington is one of the
1:39:18
Speaker 6: lesser teams in the league this year. Dallas they've had
1:39:21
Speaker 6: the more difficult schedule, But again, the problem that I
1:39:23
Speaker 6: have with that is that that was a pretty big
1:39:24
Speaker 6: game against Minnesota, so I don't want to deal with
1:39:27
Speaker 6: this game. But I will lean to Dallas slightly here.
1:39:30
Speaker 6: They're around minus four on the price. I would lean
1:39:33
Speaker 6: towards laying it, but I don't have a strong opinion
1:39:35
Speaker 6: on that. And then the other game is a really
1:39:38
Speaker 6: ugly matchup between Connecticut and Portland. This will be the
1:39:42
Speaker 6: first time Connecticut is leaving the Eastern time zone. They've
1:39:46
Speaker 6: only played on the road at New York so far.
1:39:48
Speaker 6: They're own four. I mean, they might be the worst
1:39:50
Speaker 6: team in the league do and I think they are
1:39:52
Speaker 6: moving to Boston. But they've played the Liberty and they've
1:39:55
Speaker 6: played Vegas twice, so they've had a difficult schedule. But
1:39:59
Speaker 6: last time they played pretty close ish against Vegas. I
1:40:03
Speaker 6: think Vegas didn't take them seriously though, because Vegas blew
1:40:06
Speaker 6: them out the game before that. But now Connecticut's going
1:40:08
Speaker 6: to the Pacific Coast, and you know, I don't like
1:40:10
Speaker 6: that when a team has been in the Eastern times
1:40:13
Speaker 6: on all year now they have to mess with their
1:40:15
Speaker 6: biological clock and go west. I don't like that aspect
1:40:19
Speaker 6: of it. I do think Connecticut, you know, they've played
1:40:22
Speaker 6: a difficult schedule at the very least. I think they
1:40:24
Speaker 6: might be the worst team in the league, though, Portland
1:40:27
Speaker 6: is an expansion team, but they're actually favored in this game,
1:40:30
Speaker 6: which tells you how bad Connecticut is. Portland just played
1:40:34
Speaker 6: the Liberty twice as well, and they actually won one
1:40:36
Speaker 6: of the two games at home. And then we had
1:40:38
Speaker 6: a winner here on the show. I zigzagged it for
1:40:40
Speaker 6: you and we got the win, laying the points with
1:40:42
Speaker 6: the Liberty in the next game. Now Portland is staying
1:40:45
Speaker 6: at home, which I think is an advantage to them.
1:40:47
Speaker 6: They're coming off a blowout loss here. I think I
1:40:51
Speaker 6: prefer Portland here, but I don't love it Portland. They
1:40:53
Speaker 6: have faced a pretty difficult schedule as well. I mean
1:40:56
Speaker 6: they've faced a decent Chicago team and then the Liberty twice,
1:41:00
Speaker 6: one of the top teams in the league. So Portland,
1:41:03
Speaker 6: we still don't really know who they are right because
1:41:04
Speaker 6: they're an expansion draft team, they still have to gain chemistry.
1:41:08
Speaker 6: I'm not really jumping out of my seat to lay
1:41:10
Speaker 6: four points with them here, but you know, I might
1:41:14
Speaker 6: slightly lean that. Well, I think they haven't won a
1:41:16
Speaker 6: game by that. Yeah, they've only won one game and
1:41:18
Speaker 6: they won it by two. But they're stepping way down
1:41:21
Speaker 6: in class to face Connecticut. This will be the first
1:41:23
Speaker 6: time Portland is favored. But then again, maybe that's not
1:41:26
Speaker 6: a good thing, because when you go from being an
1:41:27
Speaker 6: underdog all season and then all of a sudden being
1:41:29
Speaker 6: a favorite, that's not necessarily good. So I'm staying away
1:41:33
Speaker 6: from WNBA here NHL. I thought about it. We have
1:41:38
Speaker 6: Game seven between Montreal and Buffalo here and I gave
1:41:42
Speaker 6: you guys. Buffalo in the last game they won eight
1:41:44
Speaker 6: to three US and they and they were the better
1:41:47
Speaker 6: team in the game, so it was it was a
1:41:49
Speaker 6: good play. Gave it out. The other night we got
1:41:52
Speaker 6: the win with Buffalo. It was a nice easy armchair
1:41:55
Speaker 6: winner there. But it probably wasn't exactly what it looked
1:41:59
Speaker 6: like because they were There's just some chaos at the
1:42:01
Speaker 6: end of the game, a lot of fighting, just penalty
1:42:04
Speaker 6: these stupid things going on empty net goals, you know,
1:42:07
Speaker 6: power plays that shouldn't have even happened. That gave Buffalo
1:42:10
Speaker 6: more opportunities to score. So the game wasn't quite what
1:42:13
Speaker 6: it looked like. One thing I pointed out though in
1:42:16
Speaker 6: that game was Buffalo has been really good on the
1:42:19
Speaker 6: road in the playoffs. They're now five and one on
1:42:21
Speaker 6: the road. But now they're back at home for Game seven.
1:42:24
Speaker 6: You think that would be good. Home teams should have
1:42:27
Speaker 6: an advantage at home, but that's more of an NBA thing,
1:42:30
Speaker 6: like NHL is such a close sport. Buffalo has not
1:42:33
Speaker 6: been good on the road in the playoffs, dude, or
1:42:36
Speaker 6: excuse me. Buffalo has not been good at home. Excuse
1:42:38
Speaker 6: me in the playoffs. They've lost their last two games
1:42:40
Speaker 6: at home by scores of six to three and five
1:42:43
Speaker 6: to one in this series. Even though I pointed out
1:42:46
Speaker 6: they did actually outplay Montreal in the last game that
1:42:49
Speaker 6: they lost at home, which is why part of the
1:42:51
Speaker 6: reason why I gave them out as a play in
1:42:53
Speaker 6: game six, but it's still it doesn't inspire much confidence
1:42:57
Speaker 6: that they're one and two at home in this series.
1:42:59
Speaker 6: And in the series against the Bruins, they were also
1:43:01
Speaker 6: one and two at home. So they're two and four
1:43:04
Speaker 6: at home in the playoffs. That's not good. Both these
1:43:07
Speaker 6: teams have actually been better on the road in the playoffs.
1:43:10
Speaker 6: In Montreal, that means they're two and one on the
1:43:12
Speaker 6: road in this series, and against Timpa Bay I believe
1:43:15
Speaker 6: they were three and one on the road. Yeah, so
1:43:19
Speaker 6: they're five and two on the road Montreal, So the
1:43:22
Speaker 6: home road splits favorite Montreal in this game in a
1:43:25
Speaker 6: big way. They've been much better on the road and
1:43:28
Speaker 6: Buffalo's been much worse at home during the playoffs. Now,
1:43:32
Speaker 6: if you look at this game, it was eight to three.
1:43:36
Speaker 6: That was definitely misleading because again we had a lot
1:43:38
Speaker 6: of just crap going on at the end of the game.
1:43:40
Speaker 6: Buffalo scored two power play goals in an empty net
1:43:43
Speaker 6: goal when the chaos started happening later in the game
1:43:47
Speaker 6: in the third period, Buffalo had two other power play
1:43:50
Speaker 6: goals in the game as well, so they scored a
1:43:52
Speaker 6: lot of you know, they scored a lot of goals
1:43:56
Speaker 6: where it was not even strength, so a lot of
1:43:58
Speaker 6: fluke stuff going on, So they actually scored what is
1:44:01
Speaker 6: that they had three power play goals and four power
1:44:05
Speaker 6: play goals and an empty net goal, so that takes
1:44:09
Speaker 6: five goals off the board. So that means they had
1:44:11
Speaker 6: three goals in the game when they were at even strength,
1:44:14
Speaker 6: which is still pretty good. You know, a lot of
1:44:18
Speaker 6: goals scored in the game. But how many did Montreal
1:44:21
Speaker 6: had have, Well, they only had one, but they did
1:44:24
Speaker 6: have one shorthanded, although short end is a little bit
1:44:26
Speaker 6: of a fluke. They had one power play, so the
1:44:29
Speaker 6: game even strength, the game was three to one Buffalo,
1:44:32
Speaker 6: so it was definitely a different game. And Montreal was
1:44:35
Speaker 6: actually winning the game at the end of the first period.
1:44:38
Speaker 6: By the way, they were winning the game three to
1:44:40
Speaker 6: one in the first period, and then they were winning
1:44:42
Speaker 6: three to two at the end of the first period.
1:44:44
Speaker 6: So I think there are more things that make me
1:44:47
Speaker 6: like Montreal here. I like Montreal to win this game here.
1:44:49
Speaker 6: But the problem I have is Buffalo was the better
1:44:53
Speaker 6: team in this game.
1:44:53
Speaker 3: Dude.
1:44:54
Speaker 6: They had way more shots, so they had way more
1:44:56
Speaker 6: offensive possession. They dominated the faceoffs. They had sixty points
1:45:00
Speaker 6: seven percent of the faceoffs, had fourteen more shots in
1:45:03
Speaker 6: the game. They did get out hit, though Montreal was
1:45:06
Speaker 6: more physical with the hits. Some of that was when
1:45:08
Speaker 6: the game just was over though, which as you can see,
1:45:10
Speaker 6: they had fifty eight penalty minutes. Some crap was going
1:45:14
Speaker 6: on at the end of that game. That just keeps
1:45:17
Speaker 6: me off of it a little bit.
1:45:18
Speaker 2: Man.
1:45:18
Speaker 6: You would like to see if you want to play
1:45:20
Speaker 6: Montreal here, you'd rather see that Montreal had more of
1:45:23
Speaker 6: a stat edge than they did in that game. So
1:45:26
Speaker 6: I'm gonna stay off of it, but I lean Montreal
1:45:28
Speaker 6: in this one because they've been way better road team
1:45:31
Speaker 6: and Buffalo's not good at home this postseason in Montreal
1:45:35
Speaker 6: is in a zigzag spot where they did get embarrassed
1:45:38
Speaker 6: at home in that last game. Fifty six percent of
1:45:40
Speaker 6: tickets around Buffalo fifty two percent of the cash on Montreal,
1:45:44
Speaker 6: so that seems to agree with me. The money is
1:45:45
Speaker 6: also hitting the over in this game. You know, the
1:45:48
Speaker 6: totals at five and a half, it's pretty low for
1:45:51
Speaker 6: a reason. Game of sevens usually you get really intense defense.
1:45:54
Speaker 6: Usually you see low scoring games, and we've had a
1:45:57
Speaker 6: lot of high scoring games in this series leading up
1:45:59
Speaker 6: to the so I would kind of lean under here,
1:46:02
Speaker 6: but five and a half there's like no leeway there,
1:46:05
Speaker 6: like if you get an empty net goal or anything
1:46:07
Speaker 6: like that, or some crap happening at the end of
1:46:09
Speaker 6: the game, I can't really do that. I would play
1:46:12
Speaker 6: Montreal if I was gonna play this game. You get
1:46:14
Speaker 6: them as a small underdog Buffaloes around minus one twenty
1:46:18
Speaker 6: or so, so that's how I would play that game.
1:46:21
Speaker 6: And then we have the NBA, which we have San
1:46:24
Speaker 6: Antonio and Oklahoma City playing Game one here, which is
1:46:27
Speaker 6: on NBC and Peacock. I believe the hockey game is
1:46:30
Speaker 6: probably what was the hockey game on the TNT the
1:46:33
Speaker 6: Turner Networks again, probably, I don't know. It won't even
1:46:38
Speaker 6: let me bring it up. What's going on here? NHL, Yeah, TNT,
1:46:42
Speaker 6: True TV or no, sorry, it's on ESPN. Actually my mistake.
1:46:46
Speaker 6: The Carolina game. We're still waiting to figure that out.
1:46:48
Speaker 6: That's gonna be on Thursday. We will have the first
1:46:51
Speaker 6: game of the Western Conference Finals on Wednesday, though, so
1:46:54
Speaker 6: no hockey tomorrow. Tomorrow we do have NBA the Eastern
1:46:58
Speaker 6: Conference Final will start, and I think I am gonna
1:47:00
Speaker 6: have a play in that game. This game, I'm not
1:47:03
Speaker 6: going to San Antonio and Oklahoma City. This is at
1:47:06
Speaker 6: eight thirty pm NBC in Peacock. Now, one thing to
1:47:09
Speaker 6: worry about about Oklahoma City is the long layoff. I
1:47:11
Speaker 6: talk about this. Oklahoma City finished off the Lakers a
1:47:15
Speaker 6: while ago in a sweep. They've been off for a week,
1:47:18
Speaker 6: and you know, I don't like that because I think
1:47:19
Speaker 6: that's a momentum killer. Okay sees eight to zero in
1:47:22
Speaker 6: the playoffs so far, and when you're rolling like that,
1:47:25
Speaker 6: you don't want to have time off because it can
1:47:27
Speaker 6: affect your offensive chemistry and stuff like that. So I
1:47:31
Speaker 6: don't like that. I don't know if they're getting Jalen
1:47:34
Speaker 6: Williams back for this series or not, because he's been
1:47:36
Speaker 6: injured and this is getting to the point in the
1:47:38
Speaker 6: playoffs where okay, see he's gonna start needing him. You know,
1:47:43
Speaker 6: he's not on the injury reports. I think he is
1:47:45
Speaker 6: probably playing. Fox is a game time decision for the Spurs,
1:47:49
Speaker 6: and so is one of my men, ex Celtic Luke Cornett.
1:47:53
Speaker 6: I am a fan of Luke. You know, he was
1:47:57
Speaker 6: pretty good in a backup role for the Celtics, but
1:47:59
Speaker 6: I don't think he's that big of a component for
1:48:01
Speaker 6: san Antonio. But still he is one of their you know,
1:48:05
Speaker 6: one of their big men bodies out there that comes
1:48:08
Speaker 6: in in a backup role. Anyway, Oklahoma City looks like
1:48:13
Speaker 6: they're pretty much at full health here, but the layoff
1:48:17
Speaker 6: could hurt them. So I don't like that. San Antonio
1:48:20
Speaker 6: just played more recently. They played on Friday, I believe,
1:48:23
Speaker 6: and they beat Minnesota, but they kind of beat them easily.
1:48:26
Speaker 6: And what I don't like about this is the public
1:48:28
Speaker 6: is all over san Antonio. San Antonio just obliterated Minnesota
1:48:32
Speaker 6: in the last two games, and it was pretty misleading. Actually,
1:48:36
Speaker 6: I gave you guys Minnesota in the last game, and
1:48:38
Speaker 6: look at what happened in this game. Minnesota had eighteen
1:48:41
Speaker 6: more shots from the field. They had one hundred and
1:48:43
Speaker 6: six field goal attempts to eighty eight. One hundred and
1:48:46
Speaker 6: six is crazy, dude. How can you have a team
1:48:49
Speaker 6: have eighteen more field goal attempts and lose the game.
1:48:53
Speaker 6: I mean, that's just something you don't usually see. Minnesota
1:48:56
Speaker 6: was horrible shooting in the game thirty eight percent. San
1:48:59
Speaker 6: Antonio shot fifty six percent, forty seven percent from three.
1:49:04
Speaker 6: They had more free throws as well. I mean, this game,
1:49:06
Speaker 6: this was an outlier, dude, like Minnesota, if you look
1:49:08
Speaker 6: at what happened in this game, this game should have
1:49:11
Speaker 6: at least been a lot closer. Although san Antonio did
1:49:14
Speaker 6: dominate the rebound battle, so there is that. So that
1:49:17
Speaker 6: was a problem for Minnesota. So and the fact that
1:49:20
Speaker 6: Minnesota lost the turnover battle terribly is you know is
1:49:25
Speaker 6: also Minnesota won the turnover battle. She was in my mistake.
1:49:28
Speaker 6: That's not a good sign for Minnesota in that game.
1:49:31
Speaker 6: But still they had way more field goal attempts in
1:49:33
Speaker 6: the game, so San Antonio should regress offensively. They're playing
1:49:37
Speaker 6: Oklahoma City, dude. I mean, I know Minnesota is a
1:49:40
Speaker 6: good deepfense, but Oklahoma City is another animal, especially at home.
1:49:44
Speaker 6: So I don't see San Antonio shooting as well in
1:49:47
Speaker 6: this game. I will tell you that. Now. People are
1:49:50
Speaker 6: gonna say, though, the public loves San Antonio because they're
1:49:53
Speaker 6: the new up and coming thing. They got Wemby. Wemby
1:49:56
Speaker 6: has more star power than anybody on Oklahoma City, including SGA,
1:50:00
Speaker 6: and it seems like people are kind of sick of
1:50:02
Speaker 6: SGA and whatever. But the other thing, the public loves
1:50:06
Speaker 6: San Antonio for another reason, hear or not just because
1:50:08
Speaker 6: of all that and because they blew out Minnesota, but
1:50:11
Speaker 6: because they won four out of five of the regular
1:50:13
Speaker 6: season games. One of them was the NBA Cup game, though,
1:50:16
Speaker 6: which I just don't think Oklahoma City gave a shit
1:50:19
Speaker 6: about the Cup, so they lost the game in the
1:50:22
Speaker 6: Cup as well. Now, if you look at what happened
1:50:24
Speaker 6: in those games, san Antonio beat okay See by two
1:50:28
Speaker 6: at okay See, then they won by twenty at San Antonio.
1:50:33
Speaker 6: They then won by fifteen at okay Se Okay See
1:50:37
Speaker 6: finally won a game in dominant fashion at home by
1:50:40
Speaker 6: twenty one. I think the Christmas one was the cup
1:50:43
Speaker 6: game of them not missing or no, the Cup game
1:50:45
Speaker 6: might have been the game before that, I don't remember.
1:50:47
Speaker 6: And then the final game san Antonio won by ten
1:50:50
Speaker 6: at home, but you know, I mean it might have
1:50:54
Speaker 6: been that might have been a situation where I don't know,
1:50:56
Speaker 6: okay See was close to like having I don't know,
1:50:58
Speaker 6: maybe they weren't close to having the number one seed
1:51:00
Speaker 6: wrapped up yet. I don't know. But we'd have to
1:51:03
Speaker 6: look and see what happened in these games, you know,
1:51:06
Speaker 6: Like I don't know that game, We don't really see
1:51:07
Speaker 6: that much of an outlier in that game. San Antonio
1:51:10
Speaker 6: was dominant in the rebounds in that last game, you know,
1:51:15
Speaker 6: I mean, I would have to look into every one
1:51:16
Speaker 6: of these games and see what the box score looked
1:51:18
Speaker 6: like to really get a feel for what happened. You
1:51:20
Speaker 6: have to see who actually played, Like was there any
1:51:23
Speaker 6: key player out in any of these games or anything
1:51:25
Speaker 6: like that. The game before that that san Antonio won
1:51:29
Speaker 6: at Okasee, though san Antonio shot way too well, okay
1:51:33
Speaker 6: See had eleven more field goal attempts in the game,
1:51:35
Speaker 6: and they shot really badly from the free throw line
1:51:37
Speaker 6: sixty eight percent, and they shot terribly from the field
1:51:41
Speaker 6: thirty and twenty five percent from three, where san Antonio
1:51:44
Speaker 6: is fifty four percent from the field. I think that
1:51:46
Speaker 6: was an outlier. That game looks like Oklahoma City should
1:51:49
Speaker 6: have won that particular game. So that game was an outlier.
1:51:53
Speaker 6: That was the most recent home game that Oklahoma City had, Actually, no,
1:51:57
Speaker 6: it was the second most recent. The other game they
1:51:59
Speaker 6: obliterated san Antonio. So okay See has been better at
1:52:02
Speaker 6: home against them. On the road, not quite as much,
1:52:05
Speaker 6: but we're looking at an okay See home game here.
1:52:08
Speaker 6: San Antonio did actually shoot really well in the game
1:52:11
Speaker 6: that they won at home as well, though both teams
1:52:13
Speaker 6: shot well in that game, but okay See actually won
1:52:16
Speaker 6: the rebound battle in that game. That game was close,
1:52:19
Speaker 6: at least statistically so san Antonio. Statistically, that should not
1:52:23
Speaker 6: have been a twenty point win for san Antonio. And
1:52:26
Speaker 6: then the first game that these teams played, which was
1:52:28
Speaker 6: at Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City, you know, didn't shoot well
1:52:33
Speaker 6: in that game either, and there was a bit of
1:52:35
Speaker 6: a free well not really that much of a free
1:52:37
Speaker 6: throw to sparity never mind, but there was a three
1:52:39
Speaker 6: point disparity for san Antonio in that one. It was
1:52:43
Speaker 6: a pretty close game though. That game could have gone
1:52:45
Speaker 6: either way. But yes, we're looking at Oklahoma City is
1:52:48
Speaker 6: laying points here. But that's the thing, man, the public
1:52:51
Speaker 6: loves san Antonio here. San Antonio is a dreaded public
1:52:55
Speaker 6: underdog here, seventy percent of tickets, fifty four percent of
1:52:58
Speaker 6: the cash on them. Just that alone has me. I
1:53:01
Speaker 6: would say, you do not want to play san Antonio.
1:53:04
Speaker 6: You do not want a public underdog like this year. Yes,
1:53:07
Speaker 6: Oklahoma City is coming off a big layoff. I get that,
1:53:10
Speaker 6: but I think that they if they're the better team,
1:53:12
Speaker 6: which they are, I think they might start out slow
1:53:16
Speaker 6: and then maybe start running away with the game later
1:53:18
Speaker 6: in the game. If you want san Antonio, I would say,
1:53:20
Speaker 6: do it in the first quarter or the first half.
1:53:23
Speaker 6: Play san Antonio. While Oklahoma City might be a little
1:53:25
Speaker 6: bit slow to get going, but I think once they do,
1:53:28
Speaker 6: I think they're gonna win this game. Oklahoma City also
1:53:31
Speaker 6: is the way more experienced team, and I think this
1:53:33
Speaker 6: is where you get to the point where experience matters. Man,
1:53:36
Speaker 6: and Oklahoma City can go back and look at the
1:53:38
Speaker 6: fact that they were one and four against San Antonio.
1:53:41
Speaker 6: San Antonio this year and start fixing some things like
1:53:44
Speaker 6: one of the the Cup game, I think you just
1:53:45
Speaker 6: throw out because that game was kind of meaningless. The
1:53:48
Speaker 6: other two home games were a little bit misleading, or
1:53:51
Speaker 6: at least one of them for Oklahoma City was or
1:53:53
Speaker 6: I think one of them I think was the Cup
1:53:55
Speaker 6: game actually where Oklahoma City was better than it looked like.
1:53:59
Speaker 6: The last time Oklahoma City was at home against San Antonio,
1:54:01
Speaker 6: by the way, they were eight and a half point favorites,
1:54:03
Speaker 6: and now there's six and a half. So I think
1:54:05
Speaker 6: there is a little bit of line value on Oklahoma
1:54:08
Speaker 6: City there. It's below that key number seven now, and
1:54:11
Speaker 6: I know it's playoffs. I know San Antonio look like
1:54:14
Speaker 6: a really dominant team, So maybe you do have to
1:54:15
Speaker 6: adjust the number a little bit, but maybe it's a
1:54:18
Speaker 6: little bit over adjusted as well. Yeah, I'm gonna lean
1:54:22
Speaker 6: Oklahoma City full game here, but I'm not gonna put
1:54:24
Speaker 6: it on my cart or anything, because I do worry
1:54:26
Speaker 6: about the layoff for sure. The money's also coming in
1:54:29
Speaker 6: in the under sixty four percent of ticket seventy nine
1:54:31
Speaker 6: percent of the cash on the under totals at two
1:54:34
Speaker 6: twenty one and a half, and I believe the total
1:54:37
Speaker 6: was I think somewhere around like the two thirties the
1:54:40
Speaker 6: last time these team's played in Oklahoma City, so this
1:54:42
Speaker 6: total has been adjusted way down. So I just don't
1:54:45
Speaker 6: think there's that much value on the under right now.
1:54:48
Speaker 6: I know it's a playoff atmosphere. I know both defenses
1:54:51
Speaker 6: are really good. I know Oklahoma City's coming off of
1:54:53
Speaker 6: a layoff and that might affect their offense early on
1:54:57
Speaker 6: in the game. But this line I think is just
1:54:59
Speaker 6: adjusting did too low at this point. So I would
1:55:02
Speaker 6: not really want an under here, but yeah, I would
1:55:07
Speaker 6: lean Oklahoma City here, man. I think basically the playoffs
1:55:10
Speaker 6: are like a reset, man. They can go and they
1:55:12
Speaker 6: can look at what went wrong in those games against
1:55:14
Speaker 6: San Antonio during the regular season. Maybe it gives san
1:55:17
Speaker 6: Antonio a false sense of confidence, Like I mean, it
1:55:20
Speaker 6: is going to give them confidence. They're not gonna be
1:55:22
Speaker 6: intimidated because they played well against okay See this year.
1:55:25
Speaker 6: But again, this is the playoffs, man, and Oklahoma City
1:55:28
Speaker 6: has been here and done this. San Antonio is a
1:55:31
Speaker 6: young team that hasn't done it. So I think Oklahoma
1:55:34
Speaker 6: City is going to win the series, and I do
1:55:37
Speaker 6: lean to them to eventually get this thing done in
1:55:40
Speaker 6: game one, and if they don't, it might be a
1:55:42
Speaker 6: good zigzag spot to come back with them in game two.
1:55:45
Speaker 6: But that's gonna do it, man, that's the whole board. Today.
1:55:49
Speaker 6: We have two plays. The money seems to agree with
1:55:51
Speaker 6: both plays. They're both baseball sides. Red Sox money line
1:55:55
Speaker 6: and Seattle Mariners split bet run line money line or
1:55:59
Speaker 6: make your own mind. One run line. That's gonna do it.
1:56:02
Speaker 6: Learn a tone on Twitter you can help me out.
1:56:04
Speaker 6: Subscribe to me there. Learn a tone on Instagram. Learn
1:56:07
Speaker 6: a tone. Link tree has all my links, like, subscribe
1:56:10
Speaker 6: to the channel here, let's boost this thing. I will
1:56:12
Speaker 6: be doing an NFL season preview show soon. And ESPN
1:56:16
Speaker 6: brought back their season win Total game and they have
1:56:19
Speaker 6: a new game where you get to order how you
1:56:22
Speaker 6: think the teams are gonna fall in their divisions, and
1:56:24
Speaker 6: you get to pick who you think are gonna make
1:56:26
Speaker 6: the playoffs and you know in what order, what seeding.
1:56:30
Speaker 6: So I'm actually gonna I'll fill it out. I'll do
1:56:32
Speaker 6: a show where I just have fun and fill those
1:56:34
Speaker 6: things out live. How about that? Even though some of
1:56:36
Speaker 6: them might be boring because they're just gonna be, you know,
1:56:39
Speaker 6: somewhat going by the odds. But I might switch some
1:56:41
Speaker 6: things up. So I'm gonna do that, and I might
1:56:44
Speaker 6: do it later on tonight. I don't know. We'll see,
1:56:46
Speaker 6: but if you subscribe to me, you'll get the notification.
1:56:48
Speaker 6: It'll be an NFL season preview show. Let's just call
1:56:52
Speaker 6: it that. And I do have three win totals that
1:56:54
Speaker 6: I said that I do like, so I'm gonna do that.
1:57:00
Speaker 6: What else do I have to promote here? I think
1:57:02
Speaker 6: I have a bunch of stuff from promote. This show
1:57:04
Speaker 6: is on audio as well. It helps me out listening
1:57:06
Speaker 6: on audio review on Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. That all helps
1:57:10
Speaker 6: me out. I mean, let's get everybody listening.
1:57:12
Speaker 3: Man.
1:57:13
Speaker 6: We're on a crazy run here, so I'm trying to
1:57:16
Speaker 6: keep it going. I'm doing my best, doing what I
1:57:19
Speaker 6: usually do to try to keep this going. But this
1:57:20
Speaker 6: is an insane run, like it's not sustainable, but the
1:57:24
Speaker 6: goal will be to continue winning. Of course, we got it.
1:57:27
Speaker 6: My yuke stuff is up on covering in yuke. My
1:57:29
Speaker 6: voice is not doing well right now, but covering the
1:57:31
Speaker 6: yuke is my yuke channel. Check that out. I've been
1:57:34
Speaker 6: thinking about maybe trying to merge the two, but I
1:57:36
Speaker 6: don't know. Man Patreon dot com Sash learned it to
1:57:39
Speaker 6: if you want to get some extra Yuke stuff there.
1:57:42
Speaker 6: What else do I have? A loser cast will be
1:57:45
Speaker 6: back tomorrow night, so check that out. That's at ten pm.
1:57:49
Speaker 6: Giants g Spot podcast I think will be happening at
1:57:53
Speaker 6: some point in the near future. We have done one
1:57:56
Speaker 6: episode so far, draft preview. We got to talk about
1:57:59
Speaker 6: what we think about what happened in the actual draft
1:58:02
Speaker 6: and maybe do a season preview or something for that.
1:58:05
Speaker 6: Then I was on I thought it was gonna be
1:58:06
Speaker 6: a space last night the mad Dog and Gnome Golden
1:58:10
Speaker 6: Shower Power Hour, but it was actually a live Twitter
1:58:14
Speaker 6: stream through stream Yard, so I retweeted it. I think
1:58:17
Speaker 6: it's only on Twitter. We can go find that. And
1:58:19
Speaker 6: that was a big panel. Who's mad Dog and Gnome
1:58:22
Speaker 6: are the hosts of those of that show? Grumpy Gnome
1:58:26
Speaker 6: mad Dog actually showing his face which is ridiculous. But
1:58:29
Speaker 6: we had Brian McWilliams, like I said, was on it
1:58:32
Speaker 6: line Lion of Liberty and stand up comedian. There was
1:58:36
Speaker 6: another stand up commedity dude I can't believe I forget
1:58:38
Speaker 6: his name. Another stand up comedian who I do follow
1:58:41
Speaker 6: now on Twitter, but I forget his name. So you
1:58:44
Speaker 6: can go check that show out. And we had other
1:58:47
Speaker 6: guys on it to foundering. You know, he's a cool dude.
1:58:51
Speaker 6: He does. He's a canceled man for doing old timey,
1:58:56
Speaker 6: bigoted piano covers, so he was on it. Perry, I
1:59:02
Speaker 6: totally forgot Perry a boss. He was on it. Legal man, extraordinary. Yeah,
1:59:08
Speaker 6: so yeah, I like that guy as well. I like
1:59:10
Speaker 6: all the guys that are on it yesterday. Hopefully I'm
1:59:12
Speaker 6: not forgetting anybody else who might have been on it,
1:59:14
Speaker 6: but I think that was the whole panel. I hope.
1:59:19
Speaker 6: If I forgot anybody, I absolutely Oh Adam dude, I
1:59:21
Speaker 6: forgot Adam Nudder dude. That is so hilarious. He's the
1:59:25
Speaker 6: one guy I forgot. Comic Adam Nutter was also on it.
1:59:29
Speaker 6: All right, that's gonna do it, man. Let's have a
1:59:33
Speaker 6: good day to day peace.
1:59:38
Speaker 5: But don't you go quiet.
1:59:39
Speaker 2: Don't you fade from the flow. Your name steal means
1:59:43
Speaker 2: something to somebody for show.
1:59:45
Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, no, hold.
1:59:54
Speaker 4: On, hold on, letting now hold on, hold.
2:00:04
Speaker 3: On, Let me for.
2:00:10
Speaker 2: That bites horn, I don't get the crown.
2:00:18
Speaker 5: Hold On, hold on
2:00:22
Speaker 3: And stay with me now