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The 2026 Pivot: Quality over Momentum · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello everyone and welcome back to the Spy Trader podcast !
• 0:04
  I am your host , Benny Bull , and it is a pleasure to be with you here on this beautiful afternoon .
• 0:10
  Right now , it is 2:30 pm on Tuesday , September 22nd , 2026 , Pacific time .
• 0:17
  We are deep into the third quarter of 2026 , and the market landscape is certainly keeping us on our toes .
• 0:25
  We are navigating what I like to call a mature phase of the artificial intelligence cycle , and with the midterm elections just two months away , things are getting spicy .
• 0:35
  Let us dive into what is happening on Wall Street today .
• 0:39
  The major indices are showing some mixed performance .
• 0:42
  The S&P 500 , which we track through the SPY and VOO , is trading pretty flat today .
• 0:50
  It seems investors are rotating out of those highflying tech names we have loved for the last couple of years and moving into more defensive sectors .
• 0:58
  For instance , the Technology sector , tracked by XLK , is underperforming .
• 1:03
  After the massive gains of 2024 and 2025 , the market is now demanding proof of productivity from AI , rather than just buying into hardware sales .
• 1:13
  On the flip side , Healthcare , through the XLV ETF , is outperforming as a safe haven today .
• 1:21
  We are also seeing a modest recovery in Real Estate .
• 1:24
  With interest rates stabilized at a neutral level between 3.25 and 3.5 percent , the Vanguard Real Estate ETF , or VNQ , is seeing some renewed interest because the cost of capital has finally become predictable again .
• 1:40
  In the broader economy , we are in a soft landing environment .
• 1:44
  Inflation has stabilized near 2.2 percent , and the Federal Reserve has signaled they are done cutting for now .
• 1:52
  This has brought some muchneeded stability to the bond market .
• 1:56
  The iShares Core U.S.
• 1:57
  Aggregate Bond ETF , known as AGG , is providing a steady 4 to 5 percent yield , which is making it a real alternative to stocks for the first time in a decade .
• 2:08
  However , the midterm effect is real .
• 2:11
  The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , or VTI , is seeing higherthanaverage price swings as everyone tries to price in potential shifts in tax policy .
• 2:23
  Looking at specific companies , Apple made waves today with sales figures for the iPhone 18 series .
• 2:30
  While hardware sales are steady , investors are really looking at the services revenue from their AIagent subscriptions .
• 2:37
  Meanwhile , NVIDIA is trading down about 2 percent .
• 2:41
  It turns out a major cloud provider is diversifying with their own inhouse silicon , showing that even the king of GPUs has to watch its back .
• 2:51
  And in the energy sector , geopolitical tensions in the Arctic have pushed oil to 85 dollars a barrel , giving a shortterm boost to ExxonMobil and the XLE ETF .
• 3:02
  My analysis of all this is that we are moving from momentumdriven growth to earningsquality growth .
• 3:09
  In 2024 , potential was enough to make a stock soar .
• 3:13
  In late 2026 , margins are the only thing that matters .
• 3:18
  We are seeing profittaking in the Invesco QQQ Trust as investors look for more diversified or international holdings .
• 3:26
  So , what should we do with our portfolios ?
• 3:29
  First , for your core holdings , I recommend increasing exposure to the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , VTI .
• 3:37
  It captures those small and midcap companies benefiting from the onshoring boom and provides a buffer against tech volatility .
• 3:45
  Second , for stability , look at bonds .
• 3:48
  I like the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , or TLT .
• 3:53
  If the elections lead to a gridlocked government , yields might drop , and TLT will benefit .
• 3:59
  Third , look outside the U.S.
• 4:01
  for growth .
• 4:02
  The Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF , VEA , offers a better margin of safety and more attractive valuations than the highpriced Nasdaq100 right now .
• 4:13
  Finally , for a tactical play , keep an eye on Real Estate via VNQ .
• 4:19
  Now that rates have stabilized , the cash flows for these properties are recovering , and that 4.2 percent dividend yield looks pretty tasty .
• 4:28
  That is all for this update , friends !
• 4:31
  Remember to stay diversified and keep your cool as we head into election season .
• 4:36
  I am Benny Bull , and this has been Spy Trader .