Latest / Brian Thomas / Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Fifty five KR and see the talk station.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: Hey thirty here fifty five KR, see the talk station.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: Tuesday means a segment. I'm always looking forward to the
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis Deep Dive. That's the name of the podcast.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: Find Daniel Davis wherever you get your podcasts and check
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: out the retired lieutenant colonel has to say about a
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: variety of from matters military related, of course, another day
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  Speaker 2: to talk about the situation between the United States, Iran,
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  Speaker 2: and of course Israel and Hezbala, because they all seem
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: to be bald up into one. Welcome back, Daniel Davis.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: It's always a pleasure to have you on.
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  Speaker 1: Always great to be here, Brian, thanks for having me back.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: A very interesting day on off, on off. Usually it
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: comes over spurt your washerants. Repeat. We've been joking about this.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: One day, we're talking about negotiation. A few days go by,
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: the negotiations are off, bombs are going to start dropping,
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: then we're back at the table. So this seems to
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  Speaker 2: be ultimately a delaying tactic. I get the impression Donald
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Trump really does not want to start kinetic action, and
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: I know there's reasons for that which we can get to.
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  Speaker 2: But yesterday he said, there's a little glitch. But I
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: turned that around very quickly. As you probably noticed earlier,
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: I spoke with Hezbala and I said no shoeing. A
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: talk with Bbe and they said no shooting, and they
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: both stopped shooting at each other.
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  Speaker 1: And then.
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  Speaker 2: Hours later as Ballas starts shooting at Israel again. So
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  Speaker 2: it didn't work out real well. We never do start
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: launching a kinetic action. And you have proven yourself right.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: I do believe, because I know a lot of people
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  Speaker 2: were a little upset with you saying, you know, the
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  Speaker 2: Iranians have a lot of missiles and a lot of
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  Speaker 2: drones and they can do serious damage if we try
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  Speaker 2: to open the straight of horror moves. The American military
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  Speaker 2: would have opened this strait of horror mood it moves
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  Speaker 2: if it had the ability to do so. Is that
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  Speaker 2: a true statement there at the end, Daniel Davis.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, it for sure is.
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  Speaker 3: And I get puzzled sometimes while people get aggravated at me,
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  Speaker 3: and I've seen it on my own shows several times,
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  Speaker 3: like Fellows, I'm just telling you what the reality is
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  Speaker 3: on the ground.
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  Speaker 1: If you don't like it, you know, take it up.
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  Speaker 3: With Iran or US or Israel, et cetera, because that's
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: where the fundamentals exist. And listen, yeah, look, we wouldn't
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: have even gone to a ceasefire if we had the
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: ability to complete the job and to bring them militarily
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  Speaker 3: under submission.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, it would have been insane to do anything else.
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  Speaker 3: There's a reason why we accepted the cease fire because
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  Speaker 3: we realized we were running too low on missiles and
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: they had too many left that we couldn't take out.
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  Speaker 3: And none of that has changed, And in fact the
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: only thing that has changed is that they have more
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  Speaker 3: missiles now that they had because they continue to manufacture
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: them underground where we can't reach, and they have cleared
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: off a lot of the tunnels that we blocked up
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  Speaker 3: with some of the missiles where we could hit those
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  Speaker 3: have now been opened back up. So we're in a
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  Speaker 3: less good position than we were before because our inventories
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  Speaker 3: are lower and we just don't have enough to be
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: able to hit that target set. That's the problem.
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  Speaker 2: Well, in the Iranians are dealing with an economy that's
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: tanking and catering. I know, inflation has gone through the
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  Speaker 2: roof of the running. People are probably struggling mightily, although
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  Speaker 2: I know the folks in charge really don't care what
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  Speaker 2: happens to the people. They're religious fundamentalists and they're probably
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: eating well people be damned. They obviously are willing to
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: murder their own people. So this idea that we're going
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  Speaker 2: to have some internal evolution to overthrowing the Iranian Revolutionary
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: Guard doesn't seem to be manifesting itself. So we can
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: wait around to see if that ultimately happens based upon
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: basically a starving population. But we still have We still
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: have their ports closed, they have the Straight of Horror
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  Speaker 2: moves close. So is this are we in a battle
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  Speaker 2: of attrition?
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  Speaker 3: Well, we kind of are, though I would I would
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: take a bit issue with the characterization there. The Iranian
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  Speaker 3: leadership does care about their people, and the people aren't
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  Speaker 3: just like held captive. I mean, they're protesting almost every
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  Speaker 3: night in support of what their country is doing, holding rallies,
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  Speaker 3: et cetera.
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  Speaker 1: Because they view this as.
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  Speaker 3: Everybody against them, and even those and I've talked to
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  Speaker 3: some of them on by show, even those who were
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  Speaker 3: adamantly opposed to the regime, now then they are supporting them.
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  Speaker 3: The whole rally around the flag thing because they're being
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  Speaker 3: attacked and bombed, et cetera during the active phase, and
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  Speaker 3: they're being blockaded right now, and for sure they definitely
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: are because they've told me this as well.
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  Speaker 1: The inflection is through the roof.
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  Speaker 3: They're shortages of a lot of things. But they view
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  Speaker 3: this as an existential threat you as you point out there,
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: and therefore they are used to dealing with this. They
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  Speaker 3: have done with this before because of sanctions, because of
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  Speaker 3: the war against them with Iraq, et cetera. So they
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  Speaker 3: know how to suffer and they feel like this is
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  Speaker 3: an imposed situation. So they'll suffer for a long time.
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  Speaker 3: I think, longer than we would be able to, especially
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  Speaker 3: if those blockades remain in effect.
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  Speaker 2: Well, two components of everyone is against them. Well, with
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  Speaker 2: the exception of I think what we probably thought, and
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  Speaker 2: I'm guessing you probably have much better information than me,
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  Speaker 2: that the regional Arab nations would have come to our
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  Speaker 2: side and aid and defense, and yet that never happened.
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  Speaker 2: We've talked about this before, Daniel Davis. They have not
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  Speaker 2: because they realized that much like trying to send ships
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  Speaker 2: through the Strait of Horror Mouz, the minute that something
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  Speaker 2: goes wrong or they side with the Americans, the Iranian
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  Speaker 2: is going to start launching missiles at them like Kuwait
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  Speaker 2: received the other day. I mean, so they're not They're
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  Speaker 2: step They're holding back, and I think it seems to
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  Speaker 2: me becoming more critical of the United States action of this.
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  Speaker 2: Do the Iranian people along the lines of what you said,
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  Speaker 2: take inspiration from the the failures of both Russia and
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: the United States in Afghanistan, Like Lixen, we can hold
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  Speaker 2: out now those people that you know, those two countries
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  Speaker 2: were in Afghanistan for more than two decades and look
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  Speaker 2: who had to leave, turning tail and running away without
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  Speaker 2: accomplishing anything. We the Iran Runtian people can do that
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  Speaker 2: as well.
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  Speaker 1: Yes they do.
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  Speaker 3: They actually have sought that example many times because they do.
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  Speaker 3: They feel like just like the Taliban outlasted us, just
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  Speaker 3: like the muja Hadeen Alasta, the Soviets, just like the
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  Speaker 3: continue on with Hezbola, with Hamas and the Houthis have
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  Speaker 3: they have outlasted everything in the US and Israel has
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  Speaker 3: brought to bear and they still remained viable. They say
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  Speaker 3: we can do the same thing because they see the
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  Speaker 3: resources on our side are are not inexhaustible, and the
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  Speaker 3: issues especially you point out why the gold Fair of
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  Speaker 3: regimes haven't been more active in helping us because they
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  Speaker 3: realized the same thing I talked about at the top
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  Speaker 3: of this. They see that there's no military solution and
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: we can't knock out their missial capability. Therefore, if we
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  Speaker 3: go back to war, it's gonna get even worse because
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  Speaker 3: they can't be defended. We couldn't stop the missiles from
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  Speaker 3: falling on the Gulf Arab regimes, and they wouldn't happen
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  Speaker 3: the next time either, and it would cause permanent damage
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  Speaker 3: instead of the partial damage it has so far. So
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  Speaker 3: they just want this thing to be over and get
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: back to making money and selling.
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  Speaker 2: Oil well over at this point, I mean, if we just,
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  Speaker 2: let's say, theoretically pull the plug, or you know, maybe
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  Speaker 2: it's an election in November and Donald Trump loses the
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  Speaker 2: House and the Senate, they pass the word Powers resolution
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  Speaker 2: that says pull the plug completely, that leaves the Iranians
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  Speaker 2: and control the straight of horror moves, and they're going
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  Speaker 2: to work that to their advantage, because that's what they're
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  Speaker 2: trying to do right now. I mean, it's a it's obviously,
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  Speaker 2: we as we in the entire world, have learned a vital,
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  Speaker 2: critical piece of waterway there.
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  Speaker 3: Well, listen to the Iranians have been nothing but absolutely
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  Speaker 3: consistent on this point. They say, we will never ever
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  Speaker 3: give up control the Straight of Horror moves. They said,
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  Speaker 3: whether it's negotiated settlement, whether you walk away, or anything else,
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  Speaker 3: there is no scenario where we give away control over
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  Speaker 3: the Straight of Horror moves.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, they've codified it into a system.
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  Speaker 3: Now they're working with the country of Blah because the
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  Speaker 3: territorial waters overlap in the middle of the strait. So
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  Speaker 3: they say, no, that's it, this is just the way
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  Speaker 3: it's going to be forward, So work it out however
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  Speaker 3: you want. Now that being said, they still need the
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  Speaker 3: work to come to an end because they need the
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  Speaker 3: blockade on their stuff to come off, and so they
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  Speaker 3: realize they're going to have to negotiate. And this morning
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  Speaker 3: there's been a lot of statements from Iatola's, from several
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  Speaker 3: religious leaders and government leaders emphasizing to the people this
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  Speaker 3: is in Persian, saying hey, look, I know a lot
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  Speaker 3: of people don't want us to negotiate, but we have
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  Speaker 3: to because that's just how you manufacture power.
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  Speaker 1: It has to be both strength and negotiations that we
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  Speaker 1: got to do both.
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  Speaker 3: So even if you may not lock everything, we're going
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  Speaker 3: to have to do it implying that they're ready to
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  Speaker 3: make some.
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  Speaker 1: Concessions if they can get the things that they have
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  Speaker 1: to have to have.
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  Speaker 3: But here's the big problem. Two of the things they
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  Speaker 3: have to have are control the straight and the Israel
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  Speaker 3: has to stop its war against Lebanon. And that seems
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  Speaker 3: to be the longest pull in the tent.
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  Speaker 2: Huh well, theoretically, and I appreciate the complications involved in
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  Speaker 2: this suggestion. Hey, one of my listeners talk about all
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  Speaker 2: these twenty years supply contract with various countries in the
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: Middle East are coming to an end, and these the
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  Speaker 2: folks that are part of those contracts, the countries that
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  Speaker 2: want to purchase the oil have obvious options in the
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: world to go out, like, for example, the United States,
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: who which is a washing and oil. We've now got
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: the Venezuela and oil production going on that's going to
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: be refined, so that's a source of oil. Are there
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: enough alternative sources that we could just say, you know what,
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  Speaker 2: We've been dealing with this stuff for longer than I've
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  Speaker 2: been alive since World War Two. We're just going to
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  Speaker 2: wash our hands of this. There's enough oil in the world.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: This isn't an OPEC era dominated era. Fine, go ahead,
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: you know, close the straight up horror moves. We don't
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  Speaker 2: need it anything.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of misunderstanding about how the oil
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: industry works. That is not the case. There is not
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  Speaker 3: plenty of oil. We are not a Washington oil A
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: lot of people aren't aware. We are a net oil importer.
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: So we have to import. I want to say it's
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: like three to four million barrels a day more than
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: we export because we export a lot of things, but
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: we also have to import. And you talk about the
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: Venezuelan oil for example, that is heavy crew which can
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: only be refined in a few places that it can
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: only be turned into certain products. We have light sweet
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: crude which can be refined into like gasoline, but not
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: into things like diesel et cetera.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Jet fuel.
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  Speaker 3: That's one of the biggest productions out of the Middle
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  Speaker 3: East that there is in the world. It's a huge
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  Speaker 3: percentage of it, etc. So it's not just the total
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: amount of oil, but it's what kind of oil and
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: what does it turn into that feeds the global economy.
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  Speaker 3: And there's so much incredible important things out of the
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  Speaker 3: Gulf itself, like fertilizer thirty five percent of it, aluminum, helium,
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: several other things that you don't normally think of when
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: you think of oil or natural gas, but those things
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: are all blocked off. So it is critical and devastating
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: to the global economy. Every day this continues to go on.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: Well, that's why I ask you the question, Daniel. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: I think people think you've made a certain measure of
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: credibility beyond me, and it can explain a little bit better.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: It's not just going to be all rainbows and puppy
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: dogs and unicors, because we're going to get all these
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: oil contracts. Oil is a global market, and even if
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: we decide not to do business in the Middle East ourselves,
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: the rest of the world has to deal with it,
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: and the price of oil will be impacted by the
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: global demand and supply. So I hate to have to
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: ask this question, where does this leave us, Daniel, Well,
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: it leads.
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  Speaker 3: Us in a position to where, for the first time,
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  Speaker 3: I think in our lifetimes, we have a major international
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: crisis problem. Whatever you want to call it that we
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: cannot solve with our power because we want to just
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: impose our will and say, look, either you do this
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  Speaker 3: or we're going to blow you up. Well, we've tried that,
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: and they can endure that blowing up, and for the
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: first time, they can also fire back in the ways
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: that we can't defend against. We've never been in this situation.
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: So we're going to have to either do something and
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: I know a lot of people are going to hate this,
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: they definitely do in.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: The White House.
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: We're either going to have to concede something to them
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: in order to get something from them, and they're open
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: to that, or we're gonna have.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: To just say we all right, we're going to walk away.
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: Because if we say all right, get it, I don't
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: care you didn't give me what I wanted, we're going
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: to go back to a war. Then we're gonna just
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: devastate our economy, the global economy, because they have the
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: capacity beyond our desires, to strike back in ways we
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: can't endure. And that's the problem that too few people understand.
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: We don't get to just call the shots this time.
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: We're going to have to negotiate, and if we want
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: to get something. This time, we're going to have to
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: give something.
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  Speaker 2: Seems to be a collective failure of the decision makers
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: leading up to this initial attack to contemplate the complexity
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: or do you think that they actually factored this in
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: the equation and thought that that initial strike on the
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: thirty plus military leaders was going to decapitate the regime
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: a la Maduro. Gross over calculation on that, as it
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: turns out. But are we just being Hindsight's twenty twenty
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: or was this information readily available to the decision makers?
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: It was definitely available.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: I've talked to Joe Kennet, who resigned as the number
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: two the OD and I, the Director of National Intelligence,
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: just couple of days ago, and reiterate. He reiterated that
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: to me, he said every bit of this was was
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: pleading to his people inside the White House that were
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: pleading with the President that it was likely that they
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: were going to take the straight of horror moonies, that
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: we couldn't knock out their missile factories, and then it
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: was going to definitely.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: You know, harm our national economy in ways that.
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: We can't rectify easily or quickly, and that the people
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: weren't going to rise up against the Ietola and the
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: decapitation wasn't going to take out their system of government.
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: We told them all of those things ahead of time.
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: But there was another group that says, no, no, no,
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: they're wrong.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Actually it will it'll be like Maduro. It'll be like Venezuela.
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: As soon as you take out these guys, they'll just
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: fall apart. They've never been more weak than they are,
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: and et cetera. Turned out that that was actually just
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: a myth and a claim that these people who wanted
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: the war were selling it. They were never weaker than
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: they had been in all these years. They were as
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: strong as they had ever been. It was kind of
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: just a normal state. They weren't that weak. So President
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: Trump was sold to bill of goods by a lot
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: of people who should know better, and unfortunately he listened
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: to them instead of the group that.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: I just described.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Finding ourselves in a quagmire. Hmm, snafu, Charlie Fox Trot.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: Throw it into some category. It's reality. It's cold water.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: We're gonna it's cold water reality, but it's reality. Nonetheless,
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: you know, I appreciate you. You're just pointing, putting a
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: point on everything, and providing us with all the information
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: we need to know. Because we seem to be in
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: a very major, major problem. They have to put one
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: of the l column, Daniel Davis, and I hate to
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: have to say that out loud on a two hundred
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: and fifteth anniversary.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: You know, like a businessman man, sometimes you got to
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: put an L in there.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: If it's a losing proposition, don't dig deeper, don't throw
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: more money down the pit, cut it off, say it's
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: a bad situation, and move on to something else, which
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: we can do.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and looming behind that reality the sand situation with
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: regard to our arms, as you mentioned a moment ago.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, we have a finite amount of arms. We've
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: used a lot of them, and there may be future
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: battles to wage, which is problematic for the United States
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: of America. Daniel Davis Deep Dive find your podcast where
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: you are find him on where you find your podcast.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: We'll do this again next Tuesday. Maybe we'll get some
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: good news. I keep saying that, Daniel, but I can
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: like to I can hope again.
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: Fact that it runs is sand this morning telling their people, hey,
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: we need to have to negotiated settlement means that there
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: is a window open there, so maybe nixt Tuesday we'll
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: be able to go through.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: It Fingers crossed. Daniel Davis, thank you so much. Have
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: a great week between now and then, Sir A forty
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: four here fifty five KRC detalk station. Don't go away.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: We're gonna be talking about our sc expert, good Man
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: Todd came from share Facts. They got a zero closing
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: cost option for you, and we got a shred data
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: gives you some details about that. That'll be next