Latest / The Jake Wimberly Podcast / Analytics Model Predicts 2024 Records For All 16 SEC Teams

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Analytics Model Predicts 2024 Records For All 16 SEC Teams · The Jake Wimberly Podcast

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All right, hey, one of our favorites reached out this weekend shared me
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his latest college football hour glass projections for the SEC. I gotta get him
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back on the show. Jake Wibberley ESPN Radio out of the state of Mississippi.
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Jake, how's it going, brother Michael? What's doing? Good?
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President's Day? So trying to get some work done on a holiday here,
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man, I appreciate you having me on today. Yeah, Jake, Oh,
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bad, bad, bad bad. You're gonna get me in trouble already.
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People think I already hate the Gators because I'm a Tennessee grad. I
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got nothing against the Gators, even though they beat Tennessee. What is it
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like sixteen at eighteen? But that's neither here nor there, because according to
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your model, this is the number one we'll get into all these teams,
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Jake. But the number one team that stood out. I don't know what
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Billy Napier did to you, Jake. You got the Gators your bottle,
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I should say, Florida going two and ten, two and ten, Jake,
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Well, I mean, if this happens, I mean, I don't
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know if billion eight per SE's October, he probably doesn't, right, So
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let me give a little backstory, and like you and I spoke about off
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the areas, you know, I'll have all this stuff ready to go and
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where you could read about it, podcast on it here coming up in about
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a month, you know, right at the end of March, madness.
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I'm working through all the conferences right now, we start with the Southeastern Conference
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and then work through you know, all the Power Forward Now conferences and the
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G five conferences, and then of course I'll have my playoff projections and all
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that stuff. But I started with the SEC and you know, now that
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recruiting is over at least this cycle, we will have another transfer portal windows,
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so there'll be an opportunity for guys to move around a little bit.
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But I said, hey, I think we've got enough data to really start
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turning out what men totals will look like working through schedules. So we'll start
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with Florida and just kind of a revision's history here. The model that I
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use has several factors in it. One is a talent ratio model that rings
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the talent of the team. So I, as I told you, I
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have combed this thing back to about two and a half years of true recruiting
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numbers, and then you have to go about two years of transfer bortal numbers
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because no longer can we say, hey, we you know Alabama finished number
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one of recruiting, or Georgia four straight years have the number one roster talent
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in the country. Well they may, but do they really. If you
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want a great example of that, look at how competitive Auburn was with Georgia
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and Alabama last year and could have won both of those games. And I
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think a lot of that is because of that Georgia and Alabama do not have
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any longer. So we use a talent portion of it. Returning quarterback number
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is part of it. A coaching staff number is part of that. What
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I call my impact ball catcher metric, which is highlight wide receiver rooms because
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I think wide receiver rooms are extremely important in college football. And then there's
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an offensive and defensive efficiency portion of it. So it brings it all together
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to create a ranker for each team. And then I look at the games,
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and then you know, what does the schedules look like? You know,
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for instance, where Florida has by far the hardest schedule in the Southeastern
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Conference, you know, Auburn kind of gets the pass, ole miss gets
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kind of a past. Missouri kind of gets the pass this year and they
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still have pard schedules, but nothing like Florida. So so when you look
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at Florida, you know this year and you know, you know, coaching
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wise, Billy Napier has been one of the worst in the Southeastern Conference.
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Really you can only say, you know, if you go up to Arkansas
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and Vanderbilt, is there is there work staffs in the in the conference.
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And then of course you look quarterback play. Pretty nice quarterback play with Graham
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Mertcy that's kind of middle of the back. You know, receivers wise,
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what we call impact ballcatcher metrics is that Conna be kind of middle of the
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back. And then you look at Florida offensive and defensive scoring efficiency off last
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year and project that forward. They were twenty eighth in the country offensively,
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eighty six defensively. So when you compound that with a schedule for Florida that
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starts out with Miami and they're going to be, you know, an underdog
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and gess the Miami Hurricanes a very good I think Miami Hurricane team that's could
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be the best Miami Hurricanes team we've seen in probably a decade. It could
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be they're gonna be an underdog in that game. I think that win that's
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gonna be big, that's gonna that's gonna catapult them. But without just going
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through the whole schedule, I've got Florida with one to what I call one
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possession games, three four about seven one position possession games, meaning that those
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are games that could go either way. I've gone with a close loss to
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Texas A and M. Believe it or not, I having a close loss
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on the road to Mississippi State just because Mississippi State plays Toledo the week before.
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Florida places to Texas A and M the week a week before as well
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Central Florida. I have Florida winning a close win. Then you go at
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Tennessee and Kentucky and then a bye week, Georgia at Texas lsu Ole miss
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in Florida. I mean, look at Michael that is I don't know the
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Ohio State and Georgia want that schedule. So they're going to be an underdog
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in most of those games. And if Billy Napier just consist team and if
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you believe it, look Megas set their win total at six five and a
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half to six. There's a reason for that. They set that number so
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they can get plays on both sides of the line, so to speak.
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A lot of people will say over six or five and a half just because
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oh yeah, Florida, for sure, will I tend to go under that.
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I haven't been two wins. I think it can go equal lot around
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four wins and maybe five some of these one possession games. It's gonna be
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a tough year in games. Yeah, But it's just it's kind of pathetic,
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in't it, Jake, Because as we've grown up, I mean,
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and a lot of places say this, Jake, but it's true. At
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Florida, the standard is to compete for championships. You know, obviously you're
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not gonna win one every year. Hecky, Alabama, Georgia don't win one
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every year, but they at least compete for it. So it's just whether
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it's two wins, whether it's five wins. Even if we go over the
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top and give them a bunch of these one possession games and say they won
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six or seven, is that good enough? In year three of a coaching
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tenure at a place like Florida, I would argue it is not. So
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I don't know. I would. I would bet you, Jake. There's
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a lot of Florida fans if you gain truth Sirum, they're saying, I
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hope we go too inten so we get us a new coach at here that
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knows what the hell he's doing. You do it? Yeah, No,
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I agree, And you know that's the thing is is Florida should not be
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in this position. I mean, Florida should be in my estimation where Alabama
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has been. Not necessarily maybe nobody's gonna make that run for ten years that
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Saban had, but competing for playoff spots, you know, they need to
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be competing against Georgia, competing against Texas, competing against the Oklahoma's of the
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SEC. And for whatever reason, you know, outside of Steve Spurrier and
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Urban Meyer, you know Dan Mullen with one new year, six day ball,
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Jim Michael Wayne, I think maybe had a nine win season. It
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just hasn't happened there for some reason. And I think there has to start
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against them self evaluational why that is a case at a place like Florida where
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they should be, They shouldn't be at the top, and they should expect
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to be there. Now. This was also interesting to me, Jake CFB
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hour Glass. You've got projected right now only one undefeated team and these are
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just regular season records that we're throwing out here. This isn't postseason. You
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only one undefeated SEC team, and it's not the one I think most would
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assume. It's not Georgia, it is Texas. You've got Texas twelve and
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oh, Georgia eleven and one, and I'm gonna make an assumption, but
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you know you let me know, is that because Georgia has to go to
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Texas to Alabama and two oh miss or the schedule after last season that you
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know, it was kind of joked all off season, what a pathetic schedule
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this is? They have done a one eighty on the Bulldogs. They got
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a very very difficult slate here. It was that kind of the difference of
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why you why your models got Georgia eleven and one and Texas twelve and zero?
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Yes, and you know, you look at the just what you just
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said, you kind of framed it up. I mean you look at Georgia's
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schedule versus Texas's schedule, and look, schedules are we know this. They
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matter. I mean, and look at Texas. They open up with Colorado
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State and we're talking about a team that is one of the top recruiters in
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the country. And you know when I kind of mulled through this and let
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me just go over here and tell you this too. This is the way
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I have it. Not everybody's going to agree. The pop talented teams in
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the country, I mean are still Alabama and Georgia can grow in Oregon,
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Texas and even the Miami Hurricanes and Michael there's not a whole lot of difference
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between those teams as far as talent. When you start, you know,
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bringing in the transfer portal rankings, you start bringing in everything that's going on
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with roster, roster turned and attrition. Go back to Texas, one of
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the best rosters in the country. Steve Sarcasan gets a bumping, you know,
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bonus today, a new contract that's out there, those details. I'm
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sure you've sented her out there. One of the quarterbacks in the country.
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And Queen Years, they have the best wide receiver room where you could argue
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one of the best in the not just the conference of the country. Schedule,
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it is very manageable Colorado State. Now they have to go to Michigan.
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Uh, and we two. If you look at the Texas I mean,
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this is not your same Michigan team. No Jim Harbaugh, no no
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quarterback, no running back that you know, no Jj McCarthy, no beliefe
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for them, a new coaching staff. So I feel comfortable that they will
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go in there and get that one. And then they go Utsa, Louisiana,
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Monroe, Mississippi State and a bye week before they get Opahoma on the
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third weekend or second weekend in October, and they get Georgia at home,
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Vanderbilt on the road, a bye weekend to finish with Florida, at Arkansas
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Kentucky, and at Texas, A and M. I do think Georgia probably
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gets them in the championship game of the Southeastern Conference, which will make that
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very interesting as far as seating is concerned for the national playoff. But I
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think Texas and Georgia are the two best teams in the conference, and I
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give the NOD just because of the schedule, and they play the Dogs in
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Austin for the Longhorns. Could you see a scenario I'm kind of jumping ahead
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a little bit here, But again, you said it you would favor Georgia
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in an SEC championship game if it was Texas and Georgia. Could you see
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a scenario where these two they're so good next year that they play three times
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regular season SEC Championship and then the third time would obviously obviously being in a
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college football playoff scenario. I think it's possible. And that's one of the
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things I've been talking about on my show is I'll be more intrigued to see
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than anything is how this new playoff committee ranks and puts teams in a bracket,
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right, is Texas and Georgia. And if you want to go Alabama
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or on this only one team can represent the SEC with an automatic bit right
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in the first round. By what does the committee do with the second team?
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So let's just buy the scenario. Let's say Georgia wins the SEC,
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Texas is number two. Are they on the same side of the bracket as
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Georgia or will they be placed on the other side of the bracket? Is
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Georgia. A lot of that, of course, is going to be where
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they are seated in this thing, because I still believe obviously Notre Dame.
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If they get to ten wins, they're going to get into this tournament.
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You'll have at least one group of five team in. And I'm not so
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sure that the committee in year one if we have a two Lane or a
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Liberty or a Boise State or a Memphis. If you have two of those
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teams that have one loss or undefeated, let me get two of them.
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So where will the committee put the other big SEC school will be on the
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same side of the opposite side. If they break them up, absolutely you
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can see you know, a championship scenarioports. If you put them on the
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same side, you may see him as well. It will be fascinating to
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see how the bracket is set up. Now your model has also got Old
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Miss at eleven and one. That's pretty fascinating. That's that's what you want
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to see if you're an Old Miss fan. With all the the ni L,
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the coaching staff, continuity, the the leaders from last year, a
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lot of them coming back to Oxford for another season. So uh, safe
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to us say, assume you got Old Miss as a college football playoff team
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here at eleven and one. Yeah, I haven't chalked through the whole country.
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But I would fair sake if they go eleven to one, they're gonna
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be this playoff. And look again, I always say, don't apologize for
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your schedule. You're talking about link Kiffin, who you bring it back?
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The majority of a team that just won eleven ball games this past year.
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They made en State look look logic and slow in the Peach Bowl. Obviously
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they'll all fing John Judkins to a hoo State, but I they'll be able
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to replace that production one way or the other. We know about the transfer
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Fort Hall. But Michael, they go Furman, Middle Tennessee, at wake
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Forest, Georgia, Southern Kentucky, and at South Carolina. They should sleep
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walk through that, I mean, if we're being honest. And then they
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host LSU at home and they get the Tigers. You know, the Tigers
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will have a bye week coming into that game. They get them at home
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before they get a buye. Here's where it gets really, you know,
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dicey for them. They'll go Oklahoma at home at Arkansas and host Georgia.
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They need to go two and one in that stretch. I like them with
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a close win in Oklahoma Oklahoma, a win on the road in Arkansas lost
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to Georgia and then they finished up with Florida Mississippi State. But you know,
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here's the thing too, I don't know how many teams can go ten
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and two, you know, if because we don't have divisions anymore. So
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you could see a scenario where have a zero lost Texas or Georgia, a
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one lost Texas or Georgia, a couple of ten and twos and some nine
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and three's in there, and I just don't know how many we assume the
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committee is going to give four teams. You know, it's to the playoff,
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but I think it's razor thin when you start talking ten and two,
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eleven and one gets you in ten and two. Believe it or not,
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you may be left out. Well, that naturally goes my next question.
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We'll go find out how much cousin Shane loves you right here, Jake,
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because you got Tennessee tended too? Is it tended to? I'm just gonna
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assume that that's good enough. Now it's not always gonna be the case,
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but I'm gonna assume, Jake, that a ten win SEC team is gonna
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make the college football playoffs. So I don't know where would you lean on
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that if Tennessee goes tended to they play Georgia, they play Bama, they
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play at Oklahoma, a lot of difficult games for Tennessee. If they're winning
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ten games, we have to assume Nico's the real deal. One of the
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best offenses in the country. I would think would win in ten games.
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Would what attendant to Tennessee. Do you think they would deserve to make the
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College Football Playoff? Yeah, I think they would deserve to get in.
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And you know, let's just play this out. If I go to my
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final, if this works out right, you go, Texas will be number
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one, Georgia two, OMUSS three, Tennessee four, followed by several nine
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wins teams and you know, LSU, Oklahoma, Auburn, Texas, A
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and M. But I think, so, you know, just look at
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Tennessee real quickly. I have their losses at Oklahoma and then against Georgia.
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I think I like the matchup with Alabama at home, and then the rest
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of the schedule. They should be favorites against NC State, UH gains State,
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Chattanooga, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, missip U, TEP, Vanderbilt.
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So they should be favorites in those games. Again, the problem and
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I'll know this once we work through this and just just you know, for
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fun to see what happens is you know, in the a CC, for
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instance, if you get a one loss Florida State and a one loss Miami
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and then maybe a one loss Clemson, that creates problems. You know,
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how many? How many teams will get bids out of the Big twelve?
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Will it just be the champion or how many I mean or leg you it
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to another one? Will how many teams out of Big ten? So to
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answer your question, I think at ten and two, Tennessee would make a
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strong case, especially when you start talking strength to schedule numbers and having to
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play Oklahoma, having to play Georgia, having to play Texas or Team Alabama,
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that they would have a strong resume for it. But again I think
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you're kind of crossing your fingers at ten and too. But I Likednisley this
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year a lot. Now you said there we got a couple of teams at
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nine and three, But I want to ask specifically about one real quick Oklahoma.
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The Models got the Sooners going nine and three in their debut SEC season,
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kind of a two Parter here, Jake, how difficult is it to
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project Texas and Oklahoma given that they're playing in a new conference obviously with a
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much more difficult slate. And how big of a surprise do you think it
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would be around the country if Texas comes into this league goes undefeated and Oklahoma
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comes into this league and wins nine games right off the bat. How surprised
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do you think that would be the rest of the country that Texas and Oklahoma
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would be arguably two of the better teams in the entire SEC right off the
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bat. I think, nashally, that would be a heck of a story.
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You know, a lot of people and this is just just me still
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view the SEC now here. There's a couple of things here. One,
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we know the SEC does have the most talent of the country. If you
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don't believe it, just watches the NFL Draft coming up here in April and
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we'll see it. Every year. SEC leads to charge. But the SEC
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around the country still has a stigma that, hey, this is top to
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bottom a defensive first league, when in reality, you know, the league
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has kind of fallen off. I mean, if you look at some of
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these numbers last year, you know, Vanderbilt one hundred and one in defensive
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scoring efficiency, Arkansas forty forty one, South Carolina fifty five, Florida eighty
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six. I mean, you go down the list here, Ole Miss at
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thirty two. I mean, there's a lot of teams that have fallen off
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defensively. So when you look at Texas, to me, I don't think
16:37
Texas would be as big a surprise because they played for the played in College
16:41
Football Playoff this year. They have the seventeenth best offense and the eighth best
16:45
defense nationally. Steve Starcasian has really done a great job of this staff Tea
16:48
and this Texas Longhorn team up, I think to compete week in and week
16:52
out. Oklahoma, though, you know last year they were ninth in the
16:56
country and offensive scoring efficiency and eleventh defensive scoring efficiency in the Big Two.
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Well, but there's a lot that they've had to replace them, had to
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find a new quarterback Dylan Gabriels off to Oregon. They've lost a lot of
17:06
offensive offensive linemen that they have recruited well and done a decent job on the
17:10
transfer portal. And you know, when you look at Oklahoma as far as
17:14
their schedule is concerned. You know, Temple, Houston and Tulane in the
17:17
non conference their first SEC game. Obviously Tennessee will will come calling. Then
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at Auburn, I think that's a game that they can go get. That
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will probably be a full quarter type ballgame. Texas neutral site game after a
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bye week South Carolina at Ole Miss another non conference game against Maine. They
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play Missouri, Alabama and at LSU. So you know, you look at
17:37
Vegas right now. With Oklahoma, they have their win total at eight.
17:41
I have them a game over at nine. I wouldn't be surprised if they
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go eight and four, you know, seven and five. But I have
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them, you know, win in a couple of one possession games that I
17:49
think they can get. So, you know, again, I look at
17:52
these numbers and then I say, what does Vegas say? Vegas has them
17:55
at eight. I have them at nine. MM. And like I said,
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so you got a couple your your model's got a couple teams at nine
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and three LSU, Oklahoma, Auburn and Texas A and M Is that I
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don't know if there's a way to really ask this, Jake, but is
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there is there one of these that stand out or not really given that they're
18:12
all projected to be nine and three. You know, again, some of
18:15
that schedule, some of that's talent. All that is, is there one
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of these teams or are they all kind of close so close together? What's
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your thoughts on maybe one of these that is maybe a hair above the rest
18:27
LSU, Oklahoma, Auburn and Texas A and M. I think if I
18:32
had to pick, it would be l s U, you know, because
18:33
when I look at the overall power ratings in the conference, you know,
18:37
LSU Jackson is the fifth best power rated team. And I'll send you all
18:41
this, We'll put this out, you know, power ratings wise overall.
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Whi's what that means for me is how do they score? How am I
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scoring these teams? And you know, for instance, for Minchmark, Georgia
18:51
scored you know, one to fifty two point five to seven back to Son
18:53
of them at one thirty five pointy five. Now that seems like a big
18:56
gap, but it's really not the bigger gap, followed by Alabama, Ole
19:00
Miss and then LSU. If LSU, who had the one hundred and sixth
19:04
ranked scoring efficiency team last year, defensively, can bet that in half I
19:10
would I would say LSU, even with a new quarterback, they have an
19:14
opportunity to be back to playing a quote unquote LSU football, and they look's
19:18
say, back to playing LSU football. They just had the Heisman Trovy Wuner
19:21
on their team. So if I had to favor one of the teams,
19:23
I would probably favor LSU of the nine and grees. Now, this was
19:27
gonna get a lot of heat, I would imagine, Jake, and I
19:30
hope you're ready for it. Just buckle up, buddy, because you got
19:33
Alabama eight and four and I've seeing a lot of this again, this is
19:37
your model, not not specifically you, but eight and four for the Crimson
19:41
tide here and man, I like Kayler de Bord. I think that was
19:47
a solid higher. I don't think he makes year three if he goes eight
19:51
and four two years in a row. What's your thoughts when you first came
19:55
out and you saw this Alabama at eight and four, well surprising and almost
20:00
it makes you want to you know, we never do the budget. Oh
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no, no, surely that's enough just for nine and three. Let's just
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pretend and doo that's Alabama, right, But when you look at what's going
20:10
on. And again, so much attrition in the transfer for over the last
20:14
two years. I mean this team maybe this past year and I think it
20:18
was Chris Marler with somebody put this out that if you took all of the
20:21
guys that left Alabama just this year, it would have been the sixth ranked
20:25
recruiting class in the entire country. You can't have that kind of attrition and
20:30
it not affect you, and you do not necessarily affect you. I mean
20:33
Alabama coming out there first twenty two, you're gonna be going to compete with
20:36
most anybody just that depth. And you know, obviously change in a coaching
20:41
staff. What does that look like in Jalen Milroe? What will Kaylen de
20:44
Boor do with Jalen Milro? You know, he's a fantastic player and he
20:48
do what Kaylen de Bore wants him to do, or whe they have to
20:51
kind of you know, pivot and maneuver with that. And you look at
20:53
Alabama. The reason I have to mate in four they'll get off the cuff
20:56
and go three and oh, I think they win at Wisconsin after the BI
21:00
week. I just Georgia Kirby Smart. This feels like one of those games
21:03
where he says, hey, you know, Kirby takes it personal and says,
21:07
look, we got this new coach at Alabama and we're fixing a welcome
21:10
to the SEC in a Georgia kind of way. And I feel like they'll
21:12
probably do that at Vanderbilt South Carolina. But at Tennessee. I like Tennessee
21:18
much better in this situation. Playing at home. We know that the volunteers
21:22
are not scared of the time they meet them two years ago. You know,
21:26
they they had their moments last year. I like Tennessee and a close
21:29
win Missouri, they should get that win again. How good is Missouri going
21:33
to be? I mean, I think they're obviously going to be one of
21:34
the better teams in the league. At LSU again I favor the Tigers just
21:38
because of the coaching staff and where that game is played Mercer. But then
21:41
at Oklahoma a loss as well, so you know, I think Oklahoma's going
21:47
to be somewhat of a bus on. Then a close win against Auburn tie
21:49
for me eight and four. Nine and three is kind of where Alabama's going
21:52
to be. Now Vegas has Alabama's win total at nine. I go again
21:56
one on one win under that at eight and I just think Alabama, I
22:00
mean, they're not going to be terrible, but I think they kind of
22:03
settled back in the back in year one of a new regime. Now another
22:07
team at eight and four, Jake, This this kind of caught me off
22:10
guard as well, Missouri given their schedule, because the way I look at
22:14
it, maybe your model is a little bit different, Jake, but I
22:15
mean I'm looking at it. They may be favored in ten games, maybe
22:22
nine. The only ones I see them potentially not being favored at A and
22:26
M at Alabama and possibly Oklahoma at home. I think Missouri is going to
22:32
be favored in every single other game. So what's your thoughts on Missouri coming
22:37
out at eight and four according to your model, Yeah, Vegas has their
22:41
win total at nine and a half. Again, I'm a game and a
22:42
half under that. I think they'll they'll start out four to zero against Murray
22:47
State in Buffalo, Boston College, and Vanderbilt. After the bye week,
22:49
I do think they'll be in a normal Texas A and M does and you
22:53
know, the Aggie's right now, and obviously they'll play notre name right up
22:56
the gating A fantastic opening weekend ballgame. Then they take on McNeice at Florida
23:02
Bawling Green in Arkansas, so they should have their Sea leg shall I would
23:04
say the Aggies would be so I like Texas A and m at home by
23:07
just a little bit. Missouri will beat you mass we know that. Then
23:11
Auburn and then Bama on the road. I just I feel like one,
23:15
if not both of these games are up for grabs. Now. Missouri could
23:19
definitely beat Auburn, and I don't you know, maybe at Alabama. Well,
23:22
we'll have to see. But I have them losing two very close ballgames
23:26
against both of those teams. After a bye week hosting Oklahoma, I like
23:30
Oklahoma will come in and beat them. So I mean, I've got three
23:33
games where I call it a close loss, one possession ballgame, and then
23:36
they went out at the end at South Carolina Missippi State in Arkansas. So
23:40
at one, two, three, four ball games, I think that will
23:42
determine their season if they can stay healthy. And it's kind of in the
23:45
middle of that schedule, all one possession of ball games. It looks like
23:48
for me on which you know, again, I've got them, I've got
23:52
them, right, there at eight and four. I could see them at
23:55
nine and three, and who knows, if the ball mounts is the right
23:56
way, they can go ten in two. Now your model's got two teams
24:00
at six and six, Jacob, and I think there would be two wildly
24:04
different reactions because you got Kentucky six and six. I think their fans would
24:08
be just over it. Ready for basketball, we all know the jokes there.
24:14
While Mississippi State again I realized the standard is not six and six.
24:18
It's stortful. But I think year one, Jeff Levy all the uncertainty if
24:22
they went six and six, I think State fans will be pretty fired up
24:26
heading into twenty twenty five. What's your thoughts on these two teams that your
24:30
models got predicted to go five hundred. Yeah, Kentucky, I mean we
24:33
know, look, Mark Toops has gotten more with less with Kentucky and they've
24:37
done a great job recruiting. We'll see what you know Brock Vandergrift does for
24:41
them at quarterback. If you look at Kentucky even last year, you look
24:45
at the Kentucky Walkers, I'm trying to find over here. You know,
24:48
thirty third and total offense and forty second in defense. You know, it's
24:52
kind of middle of the pack, which is what we kind of expect for
24:53
Kentucky. Their schedule sets up where you know, they play Southern mists in
24:57
South Carolina. Should be two wins for them. We'll see what happens with
25:02
South Carolina and how good they're really going to be. I've got them at
25:04
four and eighth this year, but they could populate out of five and seven
25:07
or six and six Georgia. Kentucky has just shown they just they're not likely.
25:12
There's not going to beat Georgia Ohio. So they should be at three
25:15
and one before they take on Ole Miss on the road. That's going to
25:18
be a tough place to go play. I have them with a close loss
25:21
Vanderbilt win after the buye at Florida. You know Mark Stoops knows how to
25:25
beat Florida. This goes back into that Florida conversation. This is one of
25:27
those games where Florida could grab another win or maybe this sins Kentucky. You
25:32
know, backwards with a loss Auburn at home and of course at Tennessee,
25:37
Murray State at Texas and Louisville. So I just think that back half for
25:41
Kentucky is just too much to ask for when you do about Florida, Auburn,
25:45
Tennessee, Sandwich, Maine in there, Texas and Louisville. For Misissippi
25:48
State and Jeff Levy, it's gonna be one of the younger teams in the
25:52
conference. Not totally at the back end, but a lot of youth is
25:53
going to be expected to step up. They're gonna play a different brand of
25:56
football. They're gonna go wide open, going to try to be plant exciting
26:02
brand. You know. We'll see what happens with Misisispi State the way they
26:04
play, but Eastern Kentucky should be a gift on Game one at Arizona State
26:08
is a game that I call a close win Bulldogs, regardless of what has
26:12
happened to our more talented team. Arizona State on the road should be a
26:17
fourth quarterball game. If Misssispi State can get that, they should beat Toledo
26:21
and be three and o with Florida coming in. I have a close win
26:23
against Florida, lost to Texas at Georgia, Texas A and M, and
26:27
then a close win against Arkansas in the middle of the season, just because
26:30
I think Arkansas is another team that's kind of dead men walking this year.
26:33
UMass a win and then lost to Tennessee, Missouri and Ole miss to finish
26:37
the season. So you know, for Mississippi State, if you look at
26:41
Kentucky, go back to them. Everyone total in Vegas is seven. I
26:45
have them right under six. For Missippi State, you know, theirs is
26:48
at five and I have them one over at six. But there is no
26:51
room for ara for Missippi State to get the six. And for Kentucky,
26:55
I mean, you know, look, they can get to seven, they
26:56
can get to eight, but they've got to do the right things. Now,
27:00
I'm a big fan of Shane Beemer, but man, your model four
27:03
and eight, and I think that may be fair given the fact that Spencer
27:07
Ratlers off to the NFL, Xavier Legett one of the breakout stars in the
27:11
entire SEC. Both those guys off the roster, so they need a lot
27:17
of help. And when they had those guys, they still couldn't make a
27:18
bowl game. So how surprised were you that the model past South Carolina progressing
27:25
yet again four and eight And as popular as Shane Beamer is, I mean,
27:29
I don't know how many four and eight's he's going to survive in Columbia.
27:32
Yeah, I mean the question is who plays who plays quarterback? You
27:36
know when you talk about a couple of journey in there on that roster and
27:40
a schedule that does not lend itself to a lot of success. I mean
27:44
obviously old Minion and at Florida. You know, if they can see me
27:47
at Kentucky, if they can go to Kentucky and get the win and get
27:49
to two and oh, that would help them mightily. But I think that
27:52
they lose that ballgame LSU at Home Ackroam before my week. I have them
27:57
two and two going into the first buy. And it's similar to Florida,
28:00
Ole Mess at Alabama, at Oklahoma they can break Texas A and M Vanderbilt
28:07
and the Missouri Wawford and Clemson, so you know they're going to be underdogs
28:11
and several of these games at Clemson they'll be an underdog. Be an underdog
28:15
probably against Missouri, Texas A and M Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole miss and
28:19
Docky and LSU. So it just scheduled does not lend itself for a lot
28:23
of success in my opinion for South Carolina this year. Yeah, and then
28:27
kind of a similar deal man, Sam Pivan, one of the most beloved
28:32
figures in the SEC. Going to your models got them at three and nine,
28:34
same as Vanderbilt. But three and nine, those fans deserve a hell
28:40
of a lot better than that. And I mean, we won nine games
28:44
a couple of years ago in Fayeteville and things have clearly just kind of gone
28:48
backwards on us here. So how many let's try to give some fans of
28:52
hope here. How many of these are one possession games that Arkansas maybe could
28:56
flip to do to have a much better record than three and nine as you
29:00
model currently projects. I think there's three out there or four. Look that
29:03
Oklahoma State game on the Week two. A lots expect that. I don't
29:07
make Gondy's team this year in the Big twelve. If they can go in
29:10
and grab game right there and in week two they'll beat you app and UAP
29:15
on each side of that, that would get them to three and oh you
29:18
know at Auburn. If they're three and o going to Auburn, there'll be
29:21
some hope there. But I think that's the one possession game to look at
29:22
Missippi State on the roads in one possession game typically Ole Miss and MISSISPPI State
29:27
going to Arkansas is very tough for those two teams. I would like to
29:30
think that that Ole Miss Arkansas game is going to be closed. There's another
29:34
one possession game out there as well, So you know, just say three
29:37
or four. I mean, you could see an instance where they win their
29:40
non conference if they can beat Oklahoma State, they win their non conference out
29:42
and then grab a couple of games and get the six to six and I
29:45
think that would go win for Sam Pittman. That's something you know, we'll
29:48
see if Bobby Petrino can can help this former team get to Bowl eligibility,
29:52
and if they can, that would help in the recruiting, and then that
29:56
would you know, want we don't put a ton of stock in the lower
29:57
tier bowls anymore for coaches and telling point to administration and the recruiting and say
30:02
hey, look we got this thing going in the right direction. Come help
30:04
withs win at Arkansas. And I think that's what they're gonna have to do
30:07
at Oklahoma State and have a couple of games they shouldn't. Yeah, then
30:11
so Vanderbilt, you also three and nine, at least clerkly would be able
30:15
to sell. Maybe we're better in Florida, which probably gonna lose to Florida
30:18
anyway, but that that is something. But man, if if Vanderbilt clerkly,
30:25
if he's there for four years and three of them are winless in the
30:27
conference, I mean, it's just I don't. I don't really have anything
30:32
night. Can you say one nice thing about Vanderbilt for me? J because
30:34
I can't. I can't think of anything. Great engineering school. I know
30:37
that is a great engineering a great nic But which which league game is the
30:48
most winnable for the Commodores? Is it that late in the season South Carolina?
30:52
That's when a lot of people have circled by heck, I think South
30:55
Carolina's beating them like sixteen years in a row. So don't I don't know
30:56
why we all assume South Carolina is the one? But is that the win
31:00
for your model? I think South Carolina, And then I think if you
31:03
wanted to grab another one, I think oddly you would have to go to
31:08
hear me out here Missouri or Kentucky on the road, just because you know,
31:12
if they can catch one of those teams kind of sleepwalking, then they
31:15
may have a shot, you know, Jackie Cheryl used to say this when
31:18
he was in Mississippi State, and you I think he can die by this
31:21
and live by this. And I agree with him. Is take any team
31:22
in the country. You can only get him up for about three games in
31:25
the year, right, you can really do the raw Ross speech, and
31:29
mostly you know, first game of the season, a big ball game in
31:32
the middle, and then a bivalry game at the end of the year.
31:33
The rest of that time, it's up to these teams to kind of you
31:37
know, self cultivate and self motivated internally. So you know, if that's
31:41
when we typically will see one of these upsets, you know, or two
31:45
or three is in the middle of the year where a team kind of gets
31:48
sleepwalking a little bit, so it could happen, uh, you know in
31:51
say at Kentucky or Missouri or Missouri for Vanderbilt and just you know, you
31:55
hate it for Vanderbilt. You wish they were a little more competitive and had
31:57
a competitive advantage they could play on. Involvement just hasn't shown itself. Yeah,
32:02
well, Jake, I can't thank you enough. Hosts of the Afternoon
32:05
Drive ESPN Radio out of Mississippi, and of course all these projections were from
32:09
your Cfbourglass dot com. Go check it out, Jake. Before you go,
32:15
can you tell the audience how can they find you? How can they
32:17
give you a follow and check out all your outstanding work? Yeah, just
32:22
follow me on x at Jake whim Nothing on the website as far as current
32:24
right now, that's coming. I got a lot of people helping this year,
32:28
like I told Michael, So we'll have articles to start to come out
32:30
here in the next three weeks or so. We're gonna start with team specific
32:32
articles and then I'll throw into your national championship type stuff, conference primers.
32:37
We'll have some podcasts and stuff so and you can always find a Podcasts are
32:40
available on Apple, iTunes, all the YouTube, Spotify, and all the
32:45
platforms out there as well. So we'll be cranking this stuff out. It's
32:49
it's number season, and it's a lot of math, Michael, and it's
32:51
fun to kind of see because you look at this and sometimes you shake your
32:53
head at your own look on numbers ago that can't be right. Sometimes they're
32:58
right, sometimes they're not. Team Well, that's why I like having you
33:01
on, Jake, because I could barely count, So I'll let you do
33:04
the math, and you explain it to the rest of us. All right,
33:07
very good, very good, Michael. I appreciate you as always