Latest / Foul Territory / BP PECOTA projections breakdown, Andrew Friedman's 2-way player edge

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BP PECOTA projections breakdown, Andrew Friedman's 2-way player edge · Foul Territory

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Speaker 1: It's a premium position, but it's also a position that
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Speaker 1: just generally doesn't move the needle very much because it's
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Speaker 1: so few innings on the whole.
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Speaker 2: Right, we're back with Craig Goldstein. Go check out Baseball Perspective,
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Speaker 2: Super smart content, get yourself little subscription, give a little
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Speaker 2: money towards the cause.
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Speaker 3: There they do.
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Speaker 2: Awesome work, Craig. Great to have you on. Excited to
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Speaker 2: get into the CODA projections. How are you and how
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Speaker 2: is the fan feedback? Every year when those get unveiled.
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Speaker 2: I feel like that's the time when many really shines.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I'm doing all right. Thank you guys for
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Speaker 1: having me on. I loved by the way the all
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Speaker 1: the hearts coming down on the interstitial there. I know,
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Speaker 1: just because you guys are so excited to talk about
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Speaker 1: our projections. You love them so much. No, yeah, the
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Speaker 1: fan feedback is always. Look, I love interacting with people.
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Speaker 1: I love hearing people's opinions. I never mind it when
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Speaker 1: they come out. I love to know what people think.
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Speaker 1: It's always at the end of the season when people
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Speaker 1: go back and find the post, you know, the projections
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Speaker 1: and dunk on them. That that's that's a tougher.
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Speaker 2: Part right, right, They're not going to point to anything
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Speaker 2: that worked. They're just going to go back and find
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Speaker 2: things that didn't turn.
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Speaker 1: The twenty twenty one Giants we got dunked on constantly,
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Speaker 1: and it was like, I don't know that anyone saw
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Speaker 1: those guys coming, you know, the one hundred and seven
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Speaker 1: win season from them, But we heard about it at
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Speaker 1: the end.
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Speaker 3: Of course, did Royals fans come after you too last year?
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Speaker 4: Uh?
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Speaker 1: No, not last year. But we have a history with
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Speaker 1: Case and Baltimore a lot of I mean, we can
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Speaker 1: get into what the projections tend to miss on, but
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Speaker 1: teams with good bullpens that tend to overperform, we hear
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Speaker 1: from them quite a bit.
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Speaker 3: Okay, So go ahead, Kratz, you can jump in.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, No, I mean, what is the what does the
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Speaker 4: projection normally miss on? Because I was a Brewer for
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Speaker 4: like six minutes, and pakoda either like stands for something
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Speaker 4: that I don't know of or Pakoda not gonna pick
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Speaker 4: the right amount of wins for the Brewers. Historically, you
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Speaker 4: have to almost put in like a brewer caveat into
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Speaker 4: your algorithm, which I hope we get into later.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, we've we've been wrong on the Brewers quite a bit.
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Speaker 1: We had an article within the last couple of years
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Speaker 1: looking at all our misses kind of and who tends
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Speaker 1: to overperform the most. The Milwaukee was up there, Baltimore
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Speaker 1: up there, and again you talk about bullpens, right casey,
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Speaker 1: If you want to go back to the mid twenty tens,
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Speaker 1: those the World Series teams, we missed on those quite
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Speaker 1: a bit as well. Look when you lock it, you
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Speaker 1: look at our projections right now. You can go to
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Speaker 1: our standings site and we project you know, even eighty
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Speaker 1: one point six wins for somebody or something like that. That's
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Speaker 1: obviously not a you can't get part of a win.
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Speaker 1: So when you have a good bullpen and you can
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Speaker 1: win a game by one run by two runs consistently,
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Speaker 1: you're going to start out performing your projections because they
2:46
Speaker 1: use runs scored versus runs allows as the basis for
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Speaker 1: for how to divvy up the wins. So if you're
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Speaker 1: blowing teams out and then losing close games, you're going
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Speaker 1: to look really good in projections, but it's going to
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Speaker 1: struggle with a team you go back to. There's a
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Speaker 1: Diamondbacks team a while back that actually won ninety two games,
3:03
Speaker 1: I think while being outscored on the season, that's something
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Speaker 1: that's really going to struggle with. And it's both good
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Speaker 1: bullpens and also good bullpen management. Right, It's how the
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Speaker 1: manager is going to deploy these guys. Is he using
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Speaker 1: his best guys in tight games to bridge to the
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Speaker 1: ninth fireman roles that type of stuff, versus you know,
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Speaker 1: if they're down by two, maybe they're not necessarily trying
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Speaker 1: to keep it close, and there they allow more runs,
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Speaker 1: their run differential gets worse, but it's still just one loss. Right,
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Speaker 1: That's that's the reality of it. Every game is one
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Speaker 1: win or one loss. But that's not how it works
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Speaker 1: in the Pythagorean theorem in terms of getting you know,
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Speaker 1: the win loss records and things like that, and that's
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Speaker 1: what projections are based off of.
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Speaker 4: Ultimately, But how can you project the Brewers bullpen. Everybody
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Speaker 4: was d paid by another team, so there's no way
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Speaker 4: of looking and you had a new manager of how
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Speaker 4: he deployed do you just does it just overall gen
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Speaker 4: say okay, well this is how they deployed their bullpen.
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Speaker 4: Even Craig Council gone Pat Murphy in just as an
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Speaker 4: organizational philosophy.
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Speaker 1: So we don't like to put our thumb on the
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Speaker 1: scale of looks. It's very easy for you or I
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Speaker 1: and I sit here and I'll look at our Brewers'
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Speaker 1: projection of eighty one wins right now or eighty and
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Speaker 1: a half. At eighty one and a half, I look
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Speaker 1: at it and think they're gonna outperform that, because I
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Speaker 1: understand historically, even with the transition from Craig Council to
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Speaker 1: Pat Murphy, they've really done a great job finding these
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Speaker 1: guys that they pull out of other people's like you said, DFA,
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Speaker 1: even in trades. Joel Piams right, was a throw in
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Speaker 1: in that s Diary Ruiz trade where they got William Contreras,
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Speaker 1: but he's been great for them. They have a number
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Speaker 1: of guys that they either call up. Aaron Ashby was
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Speaker 1: really good out of the bullpen, even though he struggled
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Speaker 1: as a starter. So but if we put our thumb
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Speaker 1: on the scale and say we're gonna adjust for that,
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Speaker 1: you have to start doing it everywhere, and its that's
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Speaker 1: a little bit messy. I think what the value in
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Speaker 1: projections are are providing a perspective based on the numbers only,
5:07
Speaker 1: and we still we're not dismissing our intuition, our perspectives.
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Speaker 1: There are things that people understand that these numbers are
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Speaker 1: not going to right. If someone makes a swing change
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Speaker 1: mid season, the numbers aren't The projections are going to
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Speaker 1: rely on the numbers from the full season. And if
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Speaker 1: we understand that there is a narrative that goes along
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Speaker 1: with the change in production, maybe we can jump ahead
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Speaker 1: of what the projection is going to see in something
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Speaker 1: like that. And it's the same thing with bullpens. If
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Speaker 1: a guy adds a pitch, and that's something that again
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Speaker 1: Milwaukee is consistently really good at being able to do
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Speaker 1: find guys without the past production that the projection is
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Speaker 1: going to rely on and then turn them into something
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Speaker 1: going forward. I mean again, Trevor McGill is another example
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Speaker 1: of something like that. Elvis Paguero is another example of
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Speaker 1: someone like that. And they just do it constantly and
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Speaker 1: it's a credit to them, right, and it's something we
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Speaker 1: really respect, but can't we can't put our thumb on
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Speaker 1: the scale for them and their bullpen management and not
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Speaker 1: do it for everyone else. And I think that ends
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Speaker 1: up kind of devaluing what the perspective is that projections
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Speaker 1: give us. We don't have to take them for granted.
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Speaker 1: I mean, we don't have to take it as a
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Speaker 1: gospel or anything like that.
6:18
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7:22
Speaker 6: Okay, before I start digging into these divisions, Craig, I
7:24
Speaker 6: just want to know Scott Braun hates run differential and
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Speaker 6: that's what it seems like your whole thing is based
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Speaker 6: off of. So Scott Braun therefore hates baseball perspective in
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Speaker 6: their proper Bring me in then, I mean, just think,
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Speaker 6: does he not hate run differential?
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Speaker 1: Does he just does crass as he always do? It
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Speaker 1: doesn't matter, doesn't matter, doesn't matter.
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Speaker 2: Wait, this is a big This is a big day, Craig,
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Speaker 2: because usually AJ will say something that is the opposite of.
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Speaker 3: What I believe in.
7:50
Speaker 2: But I actually am not a fan of put agree
7:54
Speaker 2: and here I can't even pronounce it because sometimes you'll
7:58
Speaker 2: catch that cub seventy to win over the pirates and
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Speaker 2: I'm like, cool, this is gonna mess so much stuff
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Speaker 2: up and I don't really care. And I'm watching the
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Speaker 2: last pitcher there who's just called up, who's gonna get optioned?
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Speaker 3: Just wear it? And eat it.
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Speaker 2: And I feel like that happens enough for me to say, eh,
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Speaker 2: I'm watching every day. I know that I can't watch
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Speaker 2: every team all the time. I feel like there are
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Speaker 2: better stats for me to be able to determine who's
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Speaker 2: good and who's not.
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Speaker 3: That's just me.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I understand that, and I think it's complicated.
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Speaker 5: Right.
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Speaker 1: Run differential isn't necessarily going to tell you who's the
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Speaker 1: best in the moment. It's again, like you said, it's
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Speaker 1: seventeen to two, but it's one win, it's one loss.
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Speaker 1: You can flush it, right. If you lose seventeen to two,
8:42
Speaker 1: you flush that, you come back the next day. It
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Speaker 1: doesn't actually matter. The argument is that over the course
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Speaker 1: of a season, your margin of victory or margin of
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Speaker 1: defeat is indicative of the overall talent. There are obviously
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Speaker 1: exceptions to that, right, I mentioned the Diamondbacks winning ninety
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Speaker 1: plus games with the negative run differential. That doesn't mean
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Speaker 1: they were bad. It might mean that they were doing
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Speaker 1: something that run differential isn't going to account for, and
9:07
Speaker 1: so we have to be aware of that.
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Speaker 5: Right.
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Speaker 1: I mean, as much as we focus on advanced stats,
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Speaker 1: as much as we care about and want to, you know,
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Speaker 1: have faith in our projections, and we do. We also
9:18
Speaker 1: know they're going to be wrong, and they're gonna be
9:20
Speaker 1: wrong from you know, we're gonna miss playing time. We're
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Speaker 1: not going to project that correctly for a number of reasons.
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Speaker 1: And and again, there are flaws with run differential. It
9:29
Speaker 1: is a basic way to have an idea of who
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Speaker 1: can be good going forward, I think, but especially early
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Speaker 1: in the season, it's not especially meaningful. And I understand
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Speaker 1: taking issue with it and saying that again, this guy
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Speaker 1: who's gonna wear it and get sent down the next
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Speaker 1: day and we're not going to see him the rest
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Speaker 1: of the season. Yeah, you have to take that into account.
9:47
Speaker 1: But it's it's you know, we just use the largest
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Speaker 1: data set that we can and that's all the numbers
9:52
Speaker 1: that we have, and that's what we go off of.
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Speaker 5: Got it all right?
9:56
Speaker 6: Well, Nat you're Scott's life. Thank you for doing that,
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Speaker 6: because we always talk about run differential, So thank you.
10:01
Speaker 5: I appreciate that. Craig.
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Speaker 6: Now let's take into some divisions here. Yeah, because I
10:05
Speaker 6: have to look at a certain thing, and the one
10:06
Speaker 6: I'm going to first is ale central. I'm an al
10:09
Speaker 6: central homer. Now I get the White Sox. By the way,
10:11
Speaker 6: only losing one hundred and a half games is pretty ridiculous.
10:15
Speaker 6: Maybe they'll be that good, maybe they won't.
10:17
Speaker 1: I don't know.
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Speaker 6: They lost one hundred and twenty one games last year,
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Speaker 6: so you're calling for almost a twenty plus game improvement
10:23
Speaker 6: and they sold everybody and down their payroll.
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Speaker 1: But that's not important.
10:27
Speaker 6: The important thing is you have a team Minnesota that
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Speaker 6: did not make the playoffs projected ahead of three teams
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Speaker 6: that made the playoffs and added this offseason. What the
10:36
Speaker 6: heck is going on, Craig, because run differential didn't tell
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Speaker 6: that story.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, you're right, So the projections run differential is
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Speaker 1: part of it. But that's what the wins and losses
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Speaker 1: come out of. The projections are based on what we have.
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Speaker 1: We do individual player projections, they get added up and
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Speaker 1: then that projects out for the runs scored and runs aloud,
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Speaker 1: and then that's backed out into the wins, wins and
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Speaker 1: losses that you see. I think the AL Central is
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Speaker 1: a mishmash of a lot of these teams, right. I
11:06
Speaker 1: understand Detroit fans are going to look at this and say,
11:08
Speaker 1: we have a team on the rise. We just made
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Speaker 1: the playoffs. Now you're projecting us under five hundred. It's
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Speaker 1: very feasible that this Detroit team would be well over
11:17
Speaker 1: five hundred. I think any of those four teams can
11:20
Speaker 1: win the division. But when you look at Minnesota, I
11:23
Speaker 1: think you go back to last year, they had a
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Speaker 1: lot of bad luck and they were in a playoff
11:27
Speaker 1: spot really late into the season and they had a collapse.
11:30
Speaker 1: And obviously we saw the other three teams make the
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Speaker 1: playoffs there. But they have a strong pitching staff from
11:36
Speaker 1: the rotation all the way through to the bullpen. They
11:38
Speaker 1: have a lot of high octane arms that are really
11:41
Speaker 1: good in that bullpen as well. And then if you
11:43
Speaker 1: look at their hitters, it's still a pretty good lineup. Obviously,
11:46
Speaker 1: you have to account for how much time Carlos Korea
11:50
Speaker 1: might potentially miss. Byron Buxton is going to miss sometimes,
11:53
Speaker 1: but they did just add Harrison Bader, and how much
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Speaker 1: time Royce Lewis is going to miss, and I think
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Speaker 1: that's the big question. But they were hammered by injuries
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Speaker 1: last year. They could get hammered by injuries this year. Again.
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Speaker 1: You know, we like to say the best indicator of
12:06
Speaker 1: future injury is past injury. But that being said, I
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Speaker 1: think they had a fair amount of bad luck that
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Speaker 1: last year and asking the other Central teams to do
12:14
Speaker 1: what they did. You know, look, Cleveland has added some
12:17
Speaker 1: They brought in Carlos Santana, but they've subtracted quite a
12:19
Speaker 1: bit as well, shipping out Andres and him and Az.
12:23
Speaker 1: They lost Alex Cobb, they lost Matt Boyd, so they're
12:25
Speaker 1: gonna have to backfill in a number of spaces as well.
12:29
Speaker 1: And Kansas City, one of the most interesting things about
12:31
Speaker 1: Kansas City to me is they had six starters all
12:34
Speaker 1: of last year and that was by choice. They probably
12:36
Speaker 1: could have gone five the whole way if they didn't
12:38
Speaker 1: bring in Michael Lorenz and to supplant Alec marsh. Are
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Speaker 1: they going to get all of those starts from five
12:44
Speaker 1: to six guys? Because the depth behind them in the
12:47
Speaker 1: rotation is concerning and we do try and project you know,
12:52
Speaker 1: teams aren't going to generally miss starts from their rotation, right,
12:55
Speaker 1: so the guys backfilling those starts don't have great projections.
13:00
Speaker 5: Okay, is it an injury? Oh no, go ahead, Oh,
13:03
Speaker 5: I was just gonna say.
13:04
Speaker 4: I was just gonna say, we're just talking about Kendley
13:05
Speaker 4: Jansen signing with the signing with the Angels, how much
13:11
Speaker 4: can you have you ever seen or how much does
13:14
Speaker 4: one person's signing with the team.
13:18
Speaker 5: Affect your new projection?
13:20
Speaker 4: Obviously you're not putting out a brand new for the
13:22
Speaker 4: entire league because certain team's good. But is there a
13:26
Speaker 4: huge is there a player that really shifted because you
13:29
Speaker 4: have you have him that seventy three and a fourth
13:33
Speaker 4: seventy three point four wins, and you know what does that?
13:37
Speaker 4: How much does that move the needle for a team
13:39
Speaker 4: like the Angels in a premium position at closer, it's.
13:43
Speaker 1: A premium position, but it's also a position that just
13:46
Speaker 1: generally doesn't move the needle very much because it's so
13:49
Speaker 1: few innings on the whole. Right, even if he throws
13:52
Speaker 1: a lot of Indians, you're talking in the sixty to
13:54
Speaker 1: seventy range and just out of a full season's complement,
13:58
Speaker 1: it just doesn't move things that much. Starting position players,
14:01
Speaker 1: they'll move the needle little bit more. And I can
14:03
Speaker 1: give you an example Pete Alonso when he signed with
14:06
Speaker 1: the Mets recently, we added him to the depth charts.
14:09
Speaker 1: And another thing for him is he's something of an
14:12
Speaker 1: iron man.
14:13
Speaker 5: Right.
14:13
Speaker 1: He played one hundred and sixty one I think games
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Speaker 1: last year, maybe all one sixty two, so he's going
14:18
Speaker 1: to get a lot of plate appearances. We project him
14:21
Speaker 1: as about a three win player in terms of wins
14:23
Speaker 1: above replacement. He moved them two wins and moved them
14:27
Speaker 1: one win back of Atlanta in the NL East. So
14:31
Speaker 1: that's someone who moved the projections two full wins just
14:34
Speaker 1: on his own. We didn't have any other depth charts
14:37
Speaker 1: changes for the Mets that day, whereas again for the Angels,
14:41
Speaker 1: someone like Kenley Jansen, even though he's pretty good and
14:44
Speaker 1: it's meaningful in the closer role. And this is again
14:46
Speaker 1: where I say, like things like the bullpen and how
14:49
Speaker 1: the manager uses them and kind of the knock on effects.
14:52
Speaker 1: Maybe you get Ben Joyce into a fireman role where
14:54
Speaker 1: he can come in in the middle of Indians and
14:56
Speaker 1: shut something down. Maybe that's more meaningful on the field
15:00
Speaker 1: then it necessarily would be in a projection, where again
15:02
Speaker 1: it's only sixty innings and we don't know the leverage
15:05
Speaker 1: of those innings ahead of time.
15:09
Speaker 6: Okay, makes sense, makes sense. So I have two for you.
15:11
Speaker 6: One do you guys build in an injury thing for players.
15:14
Speaker 6: Because you mentioned the Royals and their injuries or certain
15:17
Speaker 6: starting rotations and their injuries. Do you guys build that
15:20
Speaker 6: into your projections.
15:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, we have. So the projections are done on a
15:25
Speaker 1: rate basis, so it's always just you know, a per inning,
15:29
Speaker 1: per plate appearance basis, and then we apportion those plate
15:33
Speaker 1: appearances or those innings or games started. We have people
15:37
Speaker 1: who do those right, so I can go in and
15:40
Speaker 1: edit a depth chart and say I think this guy
15:43
Speaker 1: is going to play this percentage of time at these positions,
15:46
Speaker 1: and then we have rate stats, you know, defensive stats
15:50
Speaker 1: for specific positions and then rate stats offensively that will
15:54
Speaker 1: carry out over those playing time projections. So in a
15:58
Speaker 1: way we do so. If we don't project Byron Buxton
16:03
Speaker 1: for six hundred plate appearances because he doesn't get six
16:06
Speaker 1: hundred plate appearances in a season, he hasn't done that
16:08
Speaker 1: in a long time, we do project six hundred plate
16:11
Speaker 1: appearances for Pete Alonzo, for example, because he plays, he's
16:14
Speaker 1: you know, he goes out there and plays. He posts
16:16
Speaker 1: up every day. So we do account for that, but
16:19
Speaker 1: it's manual. It's not done by the projection system itself.
16:23
Speaker 6: Got it, got it, Okay, so then let's talk. Let's
16:25
Speaker 6: dig into a specific player. Since you're talking about this
16:27
Speaker 6: Alex Bregman. How much could he swing if he's, say
16:30
Speaker 6: he signs with the Astros or he signs with the Cubs,
16:32
Speaker 6: because you have Texas winning the Ale West right now?
16:35
Speaker 6: Is he enough to project possibly three wins to put
16:39
Speaker 6: the Astros in a better position to win their division
16:42
Speaker 6: if he resigns there, or the Cubs to put more
16:44
Speaker 6: space between them and Milwaukee.
16:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good question. I'm gonna put I'm gonna
16:49
Speaker 1: while we're talking, I'm gonna pull up our projection for
16:51
Speaker 1: him because he's a free agent, but because he's such
16:54
Speaker 1: a prominent free agent, we do an individual projection for him,
16:58
Speaker 1: like we essentially give him play time, and he does
17:01
Speaker 1: play quite a bit. My guess is it's going to
17:03
Speaker 1: be around the three win total. That three to four wins,
17:07
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit above what Pete Alonso was getting,
17:10
Speaker 1: and that will move projection again, I would say on
17:13
Speaker 1: it depends on the team, and it depends on on
17:16
Speaker 1: their division. I would guess it would put Houston somewhere
17:20
Speaker 1: in the range of Texas. Right now, there are two
17:23
Speaker 1: wins apart it might actually move them ahead of Texas
17:26
Speaker 1: in our projection if that's the case, And for the
17:30
Speaker 1: Cubs it's probably a little less meaningful just because they
17:33
Speaker 1: have so much depth in the first place. We have
17:35
Speaker 1: Matt Shaw projected for them at third base right now,
17:38
Speaker 1: it seems like that's the plan if they don't. If
17:41
Speaker 1: they don't end up signing Bregman, he's projected for around
17:45
Speaker 1: a league average batting line. We think his glovel translate
17:48
Speaker 1: pretty well to third base. So even though Bregman is,
17:52
Speaker 1: you know, an extremely good player, obviously they have a
17:55
Speaker 1: pretty high baseline from which they're upgrading. And Houston, I
17:59
Speaker 1: think it's just a different story. Obviously, Isak Partis is
18:02
Speaker 1: a is a valuable player and a good contributor. But
18:06
Speaker 1: if you end up bringing Bregman in, moving al Twove
18:09
Speaker 1: to left, I don't know how that works defensively. But
18:12
Speaker 1: who they have projected in the outfield and left al
18:14
Speaker 1: two ve plus Bregman is A is a much better
18:17
Speaker 1: better situation than al Twove partis And whoever is projected
18:22
Speaker 1: and left right now.
18:25
Speaker 4: Who's the most valuable player in your projections besides show Hey,
18:29
Speaker 4: Because obviously nobody's going to give you more value than
18:32
Speaker 4: show Hey judging Soda.
18:34
Speaker 1: I mean, just straight off the top. I mean this
18:37
Speaker 1: shouldn't surprise anybody, but I know, heading into last year
18:40
Speaker 1: it was a big deal. Obviously, with the Yankees picking
18:42
Speaker 1: up Sodo, they were the two best projected hitters ahead
18:45
Speaker 1: of show Hey Otani. Just in terms of pure hitting,
18:47
Speaker 1: we have a metric called DRC plus deserves runs created.
18:52
Speaker 1: They were by far the top two hitters in the league.
18:54
Speaker 1: And so, yeah, show Hey obviously, with the pitching projection
18:58
Speaker 1: on top of the hitting projection, he gets a little
19:00
Speaker 1: bit of boost in that sense. So heading into this year,
19:04
Speaker 1: he has got the most wins above replacement. But Judge
19:07
Speaker 1: and Soto look hitting, still understanding that there are some
19:12
Speaker 1: defensive issues there for both of them. Potentially a judge
19:16
Speaker 1: is fine in a corner, but stretched in center hitting
19:20
Speaker 1: just means the most. And so those two guys absolutely dominate.
19:24
Speaker 4: Should teams build their teams in the offseason through this
19:29
Speaker 4: type of projection, I mean I'm not saying that they're
19:31
Speaker 4: using Pakoda, but they're using The Yankees are using their
19:36
Speaker 4: system which has a name, and the Red Sox are
19:38
Speaker 4: using their system. Should they be building teams like this.
19:42
Speaker 4: Is it the most efficient way to win a World
19:45
Speaker 4: Series or to save the most money.
19:50
Speaker 1: That's a great question. I think it's a valuable tool, right.
19:53
Speaker 1: Like I said, I don't think you have to take
19:55
Speaker 1: a projection system as gospel. It's not canon. Everything that
19:59
Speaker 1: says you know it doesn't come true. We know we're
20:01
Speaker 1: going to get some of this stuff wrong. What I
20:04
Speaker 1: think is valuable about it is it offers a perspective
20:07
Speaker 1: that isn't necessarily as prone to recency bias as people
20:11
Speaker 1: tend to be, and people are able to understand things
20:15
Speaker 1: like I said about swing changes, adding a pitch, things
20:18
Speaker 1: like that, We're going to understand that better than the
20:21
Speaker 1: model is going to. And so it's about finding where
20:25
Speaker 1: those things meet and having the most confidence in those situations.
20:30
Speaker 1: And it's just another perspective that I think front office
20:33
Speaker 1: is used to lean on, and I'm certainly receptive to
20:36
Speaker 1: the idea that they lean on them a little bit
20:38
Speaker 1: too much. I think there can be a lot of homogeneity, honestly,
20:42
Speaker 1: in terms of how they assess the free agent markets.
20:44
Speaker 1: I was listening to Scott talk about how a lot
20:48
Speaker 1: of teams aren't active in the off season or a
20:51
Speaker 1: lot of guys tend to get the same kinds of
20:53
Speaker 1: offers and things like that. I think it absolutely can
20:56
Speaker 1: be used as a way to be cheap, as an
20:58
Speaker 1: excuse not to spend any you know, I would argue
21:03
Speaker 1: ownership and front offices will look for any tool to
21:06
Speaker 1: potentially do that if if that's what they're interested in doing.
21:09
Speaker 1: But you can look at a team like the Dodgers,
21:11
Speaker 1: who spend more than anyone right now. They're one of
21:14
Speaker 1: the most analytical friendly front offices you're going to find,
21:18
Speaker 1: and they're not always looking for the most efficient deal possible.
21:23
Speaker 1: They're looking for what someone's going to add to their team.
21:25
Speaker 1: Right I could sit here and tell you I don't
21:27
Speaker 1: know that. I think that Tanner Scott deal is going
21:30
Speaker 1: to age as well as you know some others. But
21:35
Speaker 1: he adds something to the team right now, and they're
21:37
Speaker 1: trying to win right now. So maybe that fourth year
21:40
Speaker 1: won't work out for them. I don't know. Maybe it will,
21:42
Speaker 1: maybe their projection system does tell them it will. But
21:45
Speaker 1: I would say, you know, four years on a reliever
21:48
Speaker 1: already in his thirties is generally something a model isn't
21:51
Speaker 1: going to love. But that doesn't matter to them, and
21:54
Speaker 1: so they are going to take into account what the
21:56
Speaker 1: model has to say, and maybe they care that it
21:59
Speaker 1: says it's going to be really good in those first
22:01
Speaker 1: two years, and that's worth it for them to pay
22:03
Speaker 1: the back end. And that was how a lot of
22:05
Speaker 1: teams operated for a number of years. And now you
22:08
Speaker 1: know there's been a trend towards trying to get surplus
22:11
Speaker 1: value out of a lot of these deals rather than
22:14
Speaker 1: just improving the team and taking the value where it is.
22:18
Speaker 6: Okay, can we show the the nl E standings for
22:21
Speaker 6: me before we before we let you go here, Craig.
22:27
Speaker 1: See, I thought you were gonna come at me about Boston,
22:29
Speaker 1: and I was. I was all set to agree with
22:31
Speaker 1: you on Boston. I didn't even Boston being last place.
22:35
Speaker 5: I could see that.
22:35
Speaker 6: I could see where things go wrong for them.
22:38
Speaker 1: I can see. I mean, I think they're gonna be
22:40
Speaker 1: a little bit better.
22:41
Speaker 6: Okay, yeah, I could see that too. I could see
22:43
Speaker 6: them being better. But here's my question about this one.
22:46
Speaker 5: Miami.
22:46
Speaker 6: Fine, there's no way they don't lose a hundred. So
22:49
Speaker 6: that one you guys whiffed on, but Kratz has been repeated.
22:54
Speaker 1: Come on, do you.
22:56
Speaker 3: Think they're gonna lose. You don't think they're gonna lose.
22:59
Speaker 1: A hundred games. We're gonna round it up. We're gonna
23:01
Speaker 1: round it up. That's that's here nor there.
23:06
Speaker 6: The big thing I have here is Kratz has been
23:08
Speaker 6: repeatedly destroyed for being a Phillies homer and being a
23:12
Speaker 6: Mets hater. And he said the Mets are guaranteed gonna
23:15
Speaker 6: finish in third place in this division. You have them
23:18
Speaker 6: ahead of his Phillies. He wants to know why because
23:22
Speaker 6: he just thinks the Phillies are so much better than
23:24
Speaker 6: everybody in baseball.
23:27
Speaker 1: So I think I think that is something that comes
23:29
Speaker 1: down to depth again. Right, if if you look at
23:32
Speaker 1: the top line guys in the Org, they're they're gonna
23:36
Speaker 1: compete with anybody. And we actually just ran their preview
23:38
Speaker 1: today on the site and and so if you if
23:41
Speaker 1: you're a subscriber to the site, uh, you can go
23:43
Speaker 1: in and see we block out by depth charts like
23:47
Speaker 1: how good someone is per their amount of playing time
23:50
Speaker 1: and all that. And if you look at their infield,
23:52
Speaker 1: they've got one of the best infields in baseball, all
23:54
Speaker 1: the way around the diamonds, right, everyone projects really well,
23:58
Speaker 1: Max Kepler, you know that's that's a fine addition, but
24:00
Speaker 1: you're still running out Brandon Marsh a lot of the
24:02
Speaker 1: time in center field, and if you're not running him
24:04
Speaker 1: out there, you're running Johann Rojas, who hasn't proved that
24:07
Speaker 1: he can hit at all. Obviously, the rotation is quite good,
24:11
Speaker 1: but if you look if there if there are any injuries,
24:13
Speaker 1: and look, they've been remarkably healthy. You know, Ranger Suarez
24:17
Speaker 1: aside from from last year with his back a little bit,
24:21
Speaker 1: they've been remarkably healthy. But again, if you're going to
24:23
Speaker 1: factor in any any depth guys having to come in
24:27
Speaker 1: and pitch, once you get past Andrew Paynter, it starts
24:30
Speaker 1: getting pretty questionable. That doesn't mean they can't pivot and
24:33
Speaker 1: backfilled those I absolutely believe in Dave don Browski's ability
24:37
Speaker 1: to do that and to build a winner. But that's
24:39
Speaker 1: where some of the questions come in. And we saw
24:41
Speaker 1: that last year as well, with you know, ed Mundo
24:44
Speaker 1: Sosa got pushed into a lot of playing time. Is
24:46
Speaker 1: Bryce and Stott going to perform as people think he's
24:50
Speaker 1: you know, he's got the potential to. He's been an
24:53
Speaker 1: adequate player but is there another gear there? We saw
24:56
Speaker 1: there was another gear for Alec Bohm, but then he
24:58
Speaker 1: kind of downshifted in the second half of the season,
25:01
Speaker 1: and I think those are the question marks that that
25:03
Speaker 1: kind of come up again. You know, Nick Castianos shows
25:06
Speaker 1: up in the playoffs a fair amount, but it is
25:09
Speaker 1: not quite as locked in during most of the regular season, uh,
25:13
Speaker 1: you know, and again just projects to be above you know,
25:16
Speaker 1: or around average there. So it's it's there are there's
25:20
Speaker 1: a lot of name value in the team. There are
25:22
Speaker 1: a lot of high producers in the team. But if
25:24
Speaker 1: any of them falter at all, or any of them
25:27
Speaker 1: pick up an injury, I think that's where the depth
25:29
Speaker 1: charts are coming into play, and the backups are are
25:33
Speaker 1: going to be pressed a little bit more than some
25:35
Speaker 1: of these other teams. What what are Bailey falters?
25:40
Speaker 5: That's Pittsburgh.
25:41
Speaker 1: We're not talking that's Pittsburgh. We're not doing that.
25:44
Speaker 2: That's right, Yeah, we're not. We did a plenty of
25:46
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh yesterday. But Craig, this was awesome, man, Thanks for
25:49
Speaker 2: coming on here. Appreciate the time. I'd love to have
25:51
Speaker 2: you back and we'll talk to you, okay.
25:53
Speaker 1: Would love to be back. Thanks for having me, guys,
25:55
Speaker 1: it was a pleasure.
25:56
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's what he said.
25:57
Speaker 3: That's what he said.
25:59
Speaker 5: That's what he said.
26:00
Speaker 3: That's what he said.
26:05
Speaker 2: Hey, shout out to Dodger's territory. Getting Andrew Friedman on
26:08
Speaker 2: the show. He was quite busy this offseason.
26:11
Speaker 5: You know.
26:11
Speaker 2: He talked about signing keyk back and how that was
26:15
Speaker 2: kind of going to be the only option we can
26:17
Speaker 2: get into far anxiety. On the other side of this,
26:20
Speaker 2: he also got into the show. Heo Tani rules, kind
26:23
Speaker 2: of learned on the fly there what was changing. So
26:26
Speaker 2: let's dive into this little SoundBite from Andrew.
26:30
Speaker 7: The two way designation is incredibly helpful, you know, with
26:35
Speaker 7: the thirteen pitcher limit, the two way designation allows us
26:41
Speaker 7: to not count Joey as a picture, which in turn
26:44
Speaker 7: allows us to have flexibility with our starting rotation and
26:48
Speaker 7: still maintain an eight man bullpen. And that was part
26:51
Speaker 7: of our pitch to Rokie and something that we believed
26:56
Speaker 7: very strongly was no team was better a quick to
27:01
Speaker 7: bring him along in the major leagues as we were
27:04
Speaker 7: because of show. Hey, and we have given starters extra
27:08
Speaker 7: rest in the past, and we've been pretty aggressive doing it.
27:11
Speaker 7: It's hard, and there's a friction that comes with it,
27:15
Speaker 7: especially now with the five option limit in each in
27:20
Speaker 7: each season, there's friction that comes with it. You're sending
27:23
Speaker 7: guys down, you're clicking along those five options, You're disrupting
27:28
Speaker 7: things a lot. We had determined in the past it
27:32
Speaker 7: what we felt like was some advantage or at least
27:38
Speaker 7: most cautious approach for player health was that and so
27:41
Speaker 7: therefore it was worth it. But it wasn't costless, and
27:46
Speaker 7: you know, it just required us to communicate our way
27:48
Speaker 7: through it a lot.
27:50
Speaker 3: But it can be a little clumsy.
27:51
Speaker 5: But with Showy you.
27:53
Speaker 7: Can have an eight man pen and so not put
27:56
Speaker 7: your relievers at risk, and you can have flexibility on
27:58
Speaker 7: the starting front. So that for us with show Hay
28:04
Speaker 7: coming back from injury, with Yamamoto in his second year
28:07
Speaker 7: with Roki, you know, with other guys Dustin May and
28:12
Speaker 7: Tony Gonsolin coming off injury. It just gives us some
28:15
Speaker 7: flexibility to read and react to what's going on and
28:18
Speaker 7: how guys are recovering, which we can't know as we're
28:21
Speaker 7: sitting here on February tenth.
28:24
Speaker 2: And just to backtrack for a moment before that, because
28:27
Speaker 2: I listened to The Whole Show This Morning Dodger's Territory.
28:29
Speaker 2: Go check it out online pod The Whole Deal. Okay,
28:33
Speaker 2: really good episode. There it is. Andrew was talking about
28:38
Speaker 2: the rule change. I don't know if he knew about
28:41
Speaker 2: it or at least didn't get the word because it
28:42
Speaker 2: had just come out. How MLB made it a two
28:47
Speaker 2: year thing instead of a one year designation. So if
28:51
Speaker 2: you've done the two way player action in the past
28:54
Speaker 2: two years, it counts.
28:56
Speaker 3: I found that.
28:57
Speaker 2: Part interesting that it just suddenly changed along with show Hey.
29:01
Speaker 2: I don't really know what to think, but I'm like,
29:03
Speaker 2: do we need to change the rules that way? Like
29:06
Speaker 2: I like the one year status mak Otani have to
29:10
Speaker 2: put in the plate appearances in the innings and after
29:12
Speaker 2: like a month they can get the extra roster spot.
29:16
Speaker 4: It's like MLB is catering rules to the Dodgers, just
29:21
Speaker 4: saying I mean, it doesn't it doesn't affect anybody else.
29:24
Speaker 4: Stop with the Michael Lorenzen drop in here too, like
29:29
Speaker 4: like stop, it's show hey rule, and oh they extended
29:34
Speaker 4: it to two years. Man, the Dodgers, they just guess
29:39
Speaker 4: that's who MLB wants to win, so they're just giving
29:41
Speaker 4: them everything. My question is he talked about the options
29:45
Speaker 4: optioning guys down. Are they gonna option Roki Sasaki down
29:50
Speaker 4: to the minor leagues? Are we going to see him
29:52
Speaker 4: use up one of his options this year?
29:55
Speaker 2: No, you would have to pit terribly if they do that.
29:59
Speaker 2: He's got he's out of the contract and he's going
30:02
Speaker 2: to re enter.
30:03
Speaker 5: Kick it out, sign kick it out?
30:05
Speaker 3: Kidding, I'm kidding.
30:07
Speaker 5: But whose who else is being option down? I don't know.
30:13
Speaker 1: I don't really dig into the raw. I've never really
30:15
Speaker 1: dig into the.
30:15
Speaker 6: Roster right deep you're saying, I can tell you who's
30:18
Speaker 6: not pies might get option, some of their bullpen guys
30:22
Speaker 6: can get options, some of their younger guys he.
30:25
Speaker 5: Was talking about. He's talking about the option.
30:27
Speaker 4: I heard him talking about how to deal with having
30:31
Speaker 4: more starting pitchers. How that how the option working? Six
30:36
Speaker 4: man rotation the option like five? Like you can't have
30:41
Speaker 4: seven guys in your rotation and not expect like Yamamoto
30:44
Speaker 4: has options, Roki Sasaki has options. They're talking about that
30:48
Speaker 4: flexibility allows Roki to be on the roster but not
30:52
Speaker 4: wear out their bullpen, Like are they going to use
30:56
Speaker 4: are they going to use those options that are available
30:59
Speaker 4: because you can't option Lake Snell, you can't option Tyler Glass.
31:03
Speaker 4: Now you can't option you know Tony Goslin Gonsolin doesn't
31:07
Speaker 4: have any, but he's coming off an injury. Like there's
31:10
Speaker 4: a lot of guys that don't have options. Those two
31:13
Speaker 4: have options.
31:15
Speaker 3: No chance, no chance, no chance.
31:19
Speaker 4: Something would have to you don't think. No, no, I'm
31:22
Speaker 4: not saying. I'm not saying that the pitch bad. I'm
31:24
Speaker 4: saying to be able to it gives inflexibility to be
31:27
Speaker 4: able to like a healthy option.
31:31
Speaker 2: No, no, because then you're messing with his service time,
31:34
Speaker 2: You jerk. You don't do that to my service time.
31:38
Speaker 6: Not only that, but you're just going to destroy his confidence.
31:40
Speaker 6: You're not gonna tell them, hey, by the way you've
31:42
Speaker 6: been throwing great, good or bad. Oh, we're gonna send
31:45
Speaker 6: you to Triple A just because we need another guy
31:48
Speaker 6: to pitch. He's gonna be like, I'm gonna pitch. There's
31:51
Speaker 6: no way, no, no, no, no, I'm saying. I'm saying because
31:53
Speaker 6: they're gonna manipulate is their innings? Is that not what
31:56
Speaker 6: you heard Freeman say talking about how you can't they
31:59
Speaker 6: can't just option. They're not just gonna option them down
32:01
Speaker 6: and say don't pitch. They're gonna option them down and
32:03
Speaker 6: say don't pitch.
32:05
Speaker 2: They could do that, but then you have to spend
32:09
Speaker 2: x amount of days down in the minor leagues.
32:11
Speaker 3: Or an off of the big league roster.
32:13
Speaker 4: And throw bullpens. Well, they wouldn't say, hey, you're gonna
32:17
Speaker 4: miss this time in the rotation and we'll just keep
32:20
Speaker 4: you on the roster and essentially be one man down.
32:22
Speaker 4: But we're just gonna have you throw bullpens because you're
32:24
Speaker 4: missing this spot in the rotation because you only threw
32:27
Speaker 4: one hundred and one innings last year and one hundred
32:29
Speaker 4: and eleven innings the year before. Like they're gonna have
32:32
Speaker 4: to manipulate his innings. You can't put them on the
32:34
Speaker 4: fake il we already know people will get lose their
32:39
Speaker 4: jobs for that and get suspended for that. So I'm
32:41
Speaker 4: just I'm reading between the lines. I've seen it done.
32:45
Speaker 4: You can play well, still be optioned and just go
32:48
Speaker 4: and throw bullpens and not be on the big league roster.
32:52
Speaker 3: Number One, someone's gonna get hurt. Number two.
32:57
Speaker 2: There are players with options, not many, but Tony Gonsolin
33:00
Speaker 2: looks like he has one.
33:01
Speaker 5: Left.
33:03
Speaker 2: Bullpen's pretty stacked up right now, but I think they
33:07
Speaker 2: have that one extra space.
33:10
Speaker 3: I think they're okay. It's not going to be a
33:13
Speaker 3: roster crunch situation. Let's call it that.
33:16
Speaker 2: I understand what you're saying on the other side of
33:18
Speaker 2: the spectrum is this is a competitive advantage. If we
33:21
Speaker 2: are giving this guy a longer break and we option him,
33:25
Speaker 2: we are legally able to do that within the rules
33:28
Speaker 2: because he has his options. He's operating like a first
33:31
Speaker 2: year league minimum player. With that being said, what kind
33:35
Speaker 2: of example would that set for future Japanese players that
33:39
Speaker 2: want to sign with the Dodgers if they're under twenty
33:41
Speaker 2: five years old.
33:44
Speaker 5: They took they took care of his arm.
33:46
Speaker 4: They're not they're not optioning like the way that the
33:48
Speaker 4: way that you guys are talking about options.
33:51
Speaker 5: Oh that's a demotion. You're being demoted.
33:54
Speaker 4: No, like he's he's being It's just a roster of manipulation.
33:58
Speaker 5: It's not.
33:59
Speaker 4: It's not any think Hey, we know they're going to him,
34:02
Speaker 4: they're going to Rokie and saying we know you can
34:05
Speaker 4: throw about one hundred and thirty innings this year. How
34:08
Speaker 4: do we do that? Well, here's some of our options.
34:11
Speaker 4: We can put you on the IL, we can throw
34:14
Speaker 4: you four innings of time every six starts. We can
34:18
Speaker 4: do this. So they're telling him, and they're telling him
34:22
Speaker 4: how they want to keep him healthy, all things that
34:25
Speaker 4: Friedman said. You know, they have to figure out how
34:27
Speaker 4: to keep these guys healthy too.
34:30
Speaker 5: Yeah.
34:30
Speaker 2: See, I'll agree with some of what you're saying in
34:33
Speaker 2: terms of resting. I'm all for that. I just think
34:35
Speaker 2: there's one big delineation. It's called the phantom. I l
34:39
Speaker 2: they're not going to have him quote lose service time
34:42
Speaker 2: and even just have the headline in Japan that Roki
34:45
Speaker 2: Sasaki is demoted to the minor leagues. I'm telling you
34:49
Speaker 2: there is a pride factor there, and he is a
34:52
Speaker 2: player trying to get free agency. I don't know how
34:54
Speaker 2: the service time game would work, and if he goes
34:56
Speaker 2: down for a second, it's not going to be a
34:57
Speaker 2: huge deal. But you have the fans my el slot
35:00
Speaker 2: which is unlimited. So if they want to give him
35:03
Speaker 2: a blow halfway through the season, they're just going to say,
35:06
Speaker 2: you know, his ankle sore and he needs a couple
35:08
Speaker 2: of weeks, or he's got anal fissures, and then he
35:11
Speaker 2: just takes a couple of weeks, the Fishers go away
35:13
Speaker 2: and he goes back to playing baseball.
35:15
Speaker 3: Right, AJ, my head hurts, Let's go something else.
35:19
Speaker 1: We're we're we're arguing over nothing at this point.
35:22
Speaker 2: Okay, So next up, far Anxiety hired back by really
35:27
Speaker 2: Mark Walter, the owner of the Dodgers. It sounds like
35:30
Speaker 2: he'll be involved with the Dodgers, but also with other
35:33
Speaker 2: sports properties that the majority owner of the team is
35:37
Speaker 2: involved with. That includes the LA Sparks, WNBA, p WHL,
35:42
Speaker 2: which I admittedly did not look up. I don't know
35:44
Speaker 2: what that is, Chelsea FC, which is soccer, and far
35:48
Speaker 2: Han smart. I'm sure he'll help him with efficiency. We
35:51
Speaker 2: kind of got that hint when we had him on
35:53
Speaker 2: the show several weeks back, AJ that he was going
35:55
Speaker 2: to get himself involved. And this actually sounds like a
35:58
Speaker 2: good fit for him to work on the processes and
36:01
Speaker 2: bring some of what he built with Friedman in l
36:03
Speaker 2: A to other teams, as long as they don't go
36:06
Speaker 2: too crazy with the platoons in the w n B
36:09
Speaker 2: A or in soccer.
36:10
Speaker 3: I don't think you can really platoon.
36:13
Speaker 1: He didn't really remember.
36:14
Speaker 6: He was like, I don't really want to discuss it,
36:16
Speaker 6: but he could kind of tell by the way he
36:18
Speaker 6: was saying like something was in the works, and good
36:20
Speaker 6: for far On, he landed on his feet. I'm sure
36:22
Speaker 6: he got paid nicely and he gets to work not
36:24
Speaker 6: only in baseball but in other sports.
36:26
Speaker 1: So maybe one day we'll look up and he's the.
36:28
Speaker 6: GM of I don't know the I don't know you
36:31
Speaker 6: know Chelsea which listen, I know the owner of a
36:35
Speaker 6: soccer team. I'm always arguing to be their ted Lasso,
36:37
Speaker 6: but they won't hire me.
36:38
Speaker 1: I don't know why.
36:39
Speaker 3: That would be an epic, epic reality show. I love it.
36:44
Speaker 5: You are what do you mean?
36:47
Speaker 4: Do you know?
36:48
Speaker 1: Are you kidding me? Those guys that he would play hard.
36:57
Speaker 3: He knows his soccer. By the way coach soccermicked.
37:03
Speaker 6: Soccer's easy, right, so we've watched ted Lasso. Soccer's easy.
37:07
Speaker 3: Just just go play football ball in goal.
37:13
Speaker 5: Wait.
37:14
Speaker 2: This this one was big for me because Andrew Freeman's
37:16
Speaker 2: been around the game for a while. He's been with
37:18
Speaker 2: the Dodgers for a long time at this point, and
37:20
Speaker 2: he was with the Rays for a very long time.
37:23
Speaker 2: Fabi and Ardaya, who covers the Dodgers for the Athletic
37:27
Speaker 2: was watching Dodgers Territory yesterday live during this conversation, and
37:30
Speaker 2: he tweeted out. Andrew Friedman says, Key k Hernandez signing
37:35
Speaker 2: isn't official, but it was KIK or nothing. When it
37:38
Speaker 2: came to further position player additions noted his October leadership
37:43
Speaker 2: the best I've ever seen. That's high praise.
37:49
Speaker 5: That's high praise.
37:51
Speaker 3: There's only one best ever seen.
37:55
Speaker 5: How's that? How's that guy not get a job done?
37:57
Speaker 5: If that's out there? No way?
37:58
Speaker 4: Andrew Freeman hasn't like, hasn't said this other time, No way,
38:03
Speaker 4: Nobody hasn't heard that. And yet k K can't find
38:09
Speaker 4: a job. K K is just like, no, no, these
38:12
Speaker 4: other teams, I don't want to go and play for you.
38:14
Speaker 4: I just want to play for the Dodgers.
38:17
Speaker 5: He said it on the show. It's not valued.
38:21
Speaker 2: No, the leadership AJ, that's not valued. It's not I'm
38:24
Speaker 2: being serious. I mean it's valued, like to a touch,
38:27
Speaker 2: but not enough to outbid them.
38:29
Speaker 5: You know.
38:30
Speaker 6: Ke K pretty much said it on her when he
38:32
Speaker 6: came on our show. He wanted to play for the Dodgers.
38:35
Speaker 6: I mean he didn't pretty much say he did say
38:37
Speaker 6: last last year, Remember when he's like, I got three
38:40
Speaker 6: offers or whatever it was, and they were all the same,
38:42
Speaker 6: and when thee was a Dodger, So he chose the Dodgers.
38:45
Speaker 6: I mean he pretty much he pretty much said they
38:47
Speaker 6: didn't wanted to play for the good.
38:48
Speaker 1: For him, man, he's a veteran guy. He's one with
38:50
Speaker 1: the Dodgers that they freaking love him. He got he
38:52
Speaker 1: gets the hips going right, the whole thing, the Shakira
38:55
Speaker 1: hips going right. Like I mean, I'm all for it.
38:58
Speaker 1: I'm all for Kik. He should be a Dodger. He
39:00
Speaker 1: thrives in Dodger blue.
39:01
Speaker 5: So bring him back.
39:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, and last word here, so Friedman said, if you
39:05
Speaker 2: had told me that he was going to turn into
39:07
Speaker 2: this type of leader ten years ago when he was
39:09
Speaker 2: in a banana suit, He's like, I would have bet
39:10
Speaker 2: hard against that.
39:11
Speaker 3: So good for him.
39:13
Speaker 2: I mean he he went from like hilarious jokester to
39:17
Speaker 2: I can still do that but also bring an entire
39:19
Speaker 2: clubhouse together.
39:20
Speaker 3: So we love kek Good job there,