Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Totally Fine | MLB & WNBA | 8/9/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | Totally Fine | MLB & WNBA | 8/9/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Man, a hole in your chase the black coffee on
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: the felt Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three team Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show? Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: the glass down, baby, look at me? Nine, hold on,
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: hold on nothing nice now, hold on, hold on me.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: You that, but it'll get the crowd.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Stay with me. Now, what's up everybody?
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: It's toe back with you With Toadstool Sports Sunday, August ninth,
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: We wound up going one to one on the show
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: yesterday with a no play Braves Yankees did not hit
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: the on the under, and everything went wrong for me
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: as far as that's concerned, because the Yankees won again
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: by one run, which I'm not happy about, although they
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: shouldn't have lost like the previous game.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: They were winning the game most of the way by
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: a close margin.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: But yeah, the under was kind of dead because the
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: fifth inning both team score two runs and that was
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: pretty much what did it? Like?
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: There weren't really that many runs scored kind of over
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: the course of the game.
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: Really, you avoid that one ding, you're probably gonna hit
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: that under not happy about it.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: We did win with the.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: WNBA play in the afternoon. I was right about all
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: three WNBA sides, but of course the one that was
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: the closest to being wrong was that one. And Indiana
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: was winning most of that game by a pretty decent margin.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: But if you look at the statistics, it was a
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: close game, so I think it was a legitimate cover
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: from Chicago, and they were able to get within the
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: number at the end there.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: They didn't went out right, but they.
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: Lost my force, so they covered, and you know, things
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: got chippy. So there are questions asked yesterday about like
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: do these teams, like is this team going to beat
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: up you know, Sophie Cunningham whatever. Well, the answer was yes,
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: as Carrington whatever the hell her name was on Chicago
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: intentionally closelined Sophie Cunningham just right in the face, absolutely ridiculous,
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: just blatant, flagrant foul. They gave her, to their credit,
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: I guess they did give her a flagrant too. She
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: got ejected from the game. She should probably be suspended.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, some of.
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: These things like like classify as assault.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say about it. It's ridiculous.
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: It's all intentional, like they're intentionally doing this to Cunningham,
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: especially now. And it was Clark for a while as well,
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: but Clark is refusing to speak out about it.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Again. Have your teammates back, miss Clark. But whatever.
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: And then the Seattle play, luckily was a no play
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: because I mean I considered saying play at action, not
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: caring who Tampa Bay was going to start, and if
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: I knew that Jacks wasn't actually going to start, I
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: probably would have still liked the same play, like, Okay,
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: you're giving me a Tampa bullpen game. So the Griffin
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: Jacks not starting has given in his taken away basically
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: is it took away a winner from us with a
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: Toronto play not too long ago, but it took a
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: loser away last night.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So whatever, it's I guess it's kind of a wash.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, Seattle lost the game. I think they lost
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: three to two or something. If you played first five
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: on Seattle, it was a push. They were winning one
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: nothing for a while, and then it was one to
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: one at the end of five.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Debatably. Maybe they should have won that game. I don't know.
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: I mean probably they should have, given that Tampa went
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: with a full bullpend game.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's what the deal with Jackson is.
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: He didn't even pitch, and he's not pitching today either,
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: so maybe he's hurt. I have no idea or ill
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: I have no clue, but whatever, let's move into today's
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: slate here, Garrett, what's up? You did well with UFC.
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: I wasn't paying any attention to UFC. But that's good,
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: dirty sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. I still
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: don't know what these jewels are doing. But jamming we jommin.
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: I hope you like jammin. Yeah, we got some Bob
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: Marley going on here. All right, let's bring this up here. Baseball,
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: let's get into it yet again. I'm gonna give at
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: a play in the first game.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: How about that.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: I have two baseball players, we have a lot of
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: afternoon baseball. I'm all totals today in baseball, and I
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: like the WNBA board. I actually have a fairly strong
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: opinion on a couple of the games, but one of
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: them that I was going to have an opinion on.
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: It was just completely off is completely off the table.
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: One is going to be a play, and there's another
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: one that I feel pretty strongly about as well in
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: the WNBA.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: But let's do this first game up.
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: Will be a play for me in baseball, and hopefully
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna be right about this, but we're gonna take
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: the over in Red's Nationals here. I founded a nine
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: at one of the books out there. I think it
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: was the gym book that starts with a B over
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: nine at minus one twenty one. I would much rather
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: have the nine to nine and a half because nine
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: is a key number you have to break the four
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: to four tie. Although most books are at nine and
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: a half, I still probably would do it at nine
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: and a half. Like, I don't think that would keep
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: me off of it, because I think this is gonna
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: be a high scoring game here. Hopefully it just hits
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: the over both of them. But I would much rather
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: be on this key number rather than on the wrong
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: side of it. You know, But only one book was
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: offering that, But I think you'd probably get nine and
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: a half at like a reasonable price, at less than
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: like the full juice on it.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: At least this is a Peacock game.
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: So again, I'm giving out a game that's televised somewhere
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: besides MLBtv. Obviously, I think the pitching in this game sucks,
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: so that's why I'm doing this. Although Brad Lord has
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: screwed me before when I've tried to play against him.
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: Washington is actually on the verge of a sweep here
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: as well. I mean, the Reds are not a good team,
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: so that might mean maybe there's extra motivation on the
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati side here. I'm not gonna jump in and try
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: to play the side though. I'm not gonna back Brady's.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Singer on the road.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna play the over in this one. But
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: maybe Cincinnati has extra motivation here. Washington, who do they
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: playing next? I don't even I think they play Toronto
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: next or some Oh no, the Red Sox played Toronto.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: I think what am I saying?
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: Washington's playing the Cubs actually, so maybe that is a
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: potential look ahead for Washington. So I guess, situationally, maybe
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: there's an argument for Cincinnati here. And I guess you
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: could also make the argument that, well, Washington's kind of
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: going with a bullpen game here, so maybe Singer is
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: actually the better option over Washington. But again, I think
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: the pitching is just ass in this game, so I'm
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: gonna take the over. Cincinnati used two relief pitchers yesterday.
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: I don't really care though Washington used four. I mean,
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: I'd rather have the bullpens to be totally shredded when
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: I'm playing the over, But either way, I think it
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: makes sense.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: These bullpens are not good.
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati twenty fourth, Washington twenty sixth, arranged by Whip. Washington
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: still number two in offense, even though they've fallen off
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: a little bit. They did put up some pretty good
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: offensive numbers yesterday. Cincinnati, I think at least in this
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: game they can get something going with their bats, even
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: though they haven't been that good. Their twentieth tied with Baltimore,
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: which is not great at this point. Washington does seem
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: to play a lot of high scoring games at home,
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: so that's probably a good thing here. And we're gonna
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: fade the starters obviously. Brady Singer is pitching for the Reds.
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: He's not very good. Four point six to seventy RA
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: one point four to three Whip. He's bad on the
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: road five point eight to nine. Roady ra with an
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: opponent batting average over three hundred on the road, So yeah,
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: he's worse on the road. He pitched alright last time
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: out at home against the A's, but I don't really
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: think that's I don't think it's a trend. Although he
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: did actually have a pretty good month of July overall,
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: but his last start of July was pretty bad against
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: a week Cleveland offense. I'm still not gonna trust Singer here,
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: even though his July was okay.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: His hit rate is still too high.
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: Easily over one per inning there. He allows a lot
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: of home runs, isn't too bad. He doesn't really walk
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: that many guys, but he also is not a strikeout pitcher,
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: so advanced analytics guys will tell you that he's not
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: good as well.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: But even my old school methodology.
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: Tells you, Yeah, his whip is not good, so he's
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: not good, and his strikeout walk ratio isn't very good.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Singer against Washington hasn't really been good either.
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: In twenty at bats three hundred average, allowed nine to
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: forty one oh.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Ps two to three strike out walk ratio.
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: So I think fading Singer makes sense here as far
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: as he's bad on the road. He's not good against
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: Washington in this small sample size at least and Washington,
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: like I said, they're probably going with Brad Lord, but
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: I might just pick Action on the Washington side here.
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: That probably would be how I recommend doing this. Singer
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: most likely will start, and even if he, I mean,
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: you could just go action completely on this game, because
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: I don't think you're not gonna see good pitching on
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: either team, right, Like, if it's not these two guys,
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: who else is gonna be?
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean?
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: There are no good pitchers on these teams except Chase Burns,
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: who pitched yesterday for Cincinnati.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know think he.
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: Was good yesterday. So yeah, whatever, the pitching is gonna
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: be bad here. Uh Brad Lord though, I mean, he's
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: still young, but I don't think he's that good.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Although he's caught me before.
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: Trying to fade him, and hopefully it doesn't happen again here,
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: but I don't think he's gonna do that well here.
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: He's been a relief pitcher this year for a bit.
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: He's got a three point eight to one e RRA
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: one point two whip. I realize those are not bad numbers,
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: but his whole ray is bad. Seven point five. Yeah,
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: that's not good. So he's a lot worse at home.
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty much making all bullpen appearances. I think
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: he made one start somewhere in here this year. Uh
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: So they're putting him back in the rotation, I guess
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: because they traded Foster Griffin and they need an arm
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: in here.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: But I don't think Lord is gonna pitch that deep
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: into this game.
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: You know, He's probably only gonna go a couple of
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: innings and then they're gonna use the rest of their bullpen,
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: which sucks. Lord also hasn't been great against Cincinnati in
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: twenty two at bats three eighteen batting average a lot
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: is not good, so they've hit him for contact, not
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: really for power though the ops is low, kind of
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: at six eighty two five zero strikeout walker issue, But
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: I'm still willing to fade both pitching situations here. And
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: the money seems like it agrees with me on this,
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: fifty nine percent of the tickets on the under. All though,
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: I don't see the public coming in and playing an
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: under in this game. I don't think there's any way,
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: but the real money looks like it is on the over,
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: and it did open at nine, and the total has
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: gone up to nine and a half, so there has
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: been a little bit of movement on that number towards
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: the over eighty percent of the cash on the over,
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: so I think there is agreement with me on that
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: that'll be my first play there. Bad pitching, just go
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: over the over the total. Maybe I'm over simplifying that,
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: but that's what I'm gonna do there. All right, Zach,
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: what's up. Good to see you again. Probably avoiding my
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: show so you don't have to listen to talk about
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: the royals.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Cash them out.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: I don't know, have to see what these things are
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: the jewels, all right.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Red Sox and A's.
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: Red Sox lost yesterday, probably kind of inexcusable to lose
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: at home to the A's. The Red Sox are a
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: big favorite. Yesterday Bennett didn't really have it yesterday. Gage
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: Jump was pretty good. I mean, it's very interesting. Since
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: July twenty fifth or something like that, the Red Sox
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: have only lost to one pitcher, Gauge Jump. He's the
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: only starting pitcher. He's the only pitcher who started in
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: a game where the Red Sox have lost since like
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: July twenty fifth, So the last two times the Red
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: Sox have lost both involved gauge jump pitching against them,
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: which is ridiculous. Now, I don't like the spot for
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox though they just lost another long win streak,
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: a nine to ten game win streak, whatever the hell
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: this was. I think then when you lose the win streak,
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: a lot of times it hangs you over into the
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: next game. But the last time the Red Sox lost
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: to win streak, that didn't really happen. They won the
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: next game, in fact against Toronto, though they did lose
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: a couple.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Of games in there.
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: Do I really want to come in and actually recommend
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: fading the Red Sox here, you know what I mean.
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: It's not gonna make my card, but I don't think
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: you should. I definitely don't think you should play the
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: Red Sox in this game. I'll tell you that even
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: though they do have a better bullpen, they have one
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: of the best bullpens in baseball and the rest, and
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: they only use one guy in the last two days.
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: It looks is that right? Maybe that is right? I
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: don't know, but yeah, the Red Sox clearly have the
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: better bullpen, though the A's use three guys yesterday. The
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: Red Sox are the best bullpen in baseball here, number
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: one in WHIP and ERA. A's are the worst in
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: ERA and almost the worst in WHIP. They're in twenty ninth,
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: but I think you could definitely argue that they're the worst.
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: Red Sox have moved up offensively. They're actually now twelveth
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: in offense, tied with Minnesota, so the Red Sox starting
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: to get things going offensively. Although Wilson Contreras came back yesterday,
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: will you're a bray you? I think maybe just got
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: the day off or something because it was against the lefty.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: I'm not really sure what that was. Contreras didn't look
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: right though, like the crowd was booing him, which is bullshit, uh,
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: because I think he was still sick. Uh, So I'm
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: not happy about what the crowd was doing yesterday. I
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: still have some beefs with Red Sox fandom here, including
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: their hatred of Jaron Duran just for entirely political reasons
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: or just because he.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Said a bad word like literally.
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: Uh. But yeah, Wilson Contrerez, I don't know, man, I
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: don't think he was one hundred percent yesterday. Although he'll
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: probably be getting closer to it. They both, i'm guessing,
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: will be in the lineup here this time. I'm not
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: entirely sure of that though, as are going with J. T.
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: Gin here though, which is not going to be that
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: good for the Red Sox, I don't think, although I
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: think the Red Sox have handled right handed pitching recently,
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: and he is a righty gin three point five one
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: array one point two to one whip.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Gin's got good.
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: Numbers, especially consider he has to pitch in that horrible
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: A stadium, and he's actually been somewhat worse on the
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: road three point six y nine Roady rail Those opponent
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: batting average on the road is way better at.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: One eighty five, so Gin, I think he is probably.
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: Still better on the road. I mean, that's what makes
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: the most sense, right, Like, you take him away from
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: that A stadium, But he's not bad either way. Gin
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: has had a pretty good season here, and the reason
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: for that is he's a ground ball pitcher, or a
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: pretty decent ground ball pitcher, so he doesn't allow that
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: many balls in the air, and that's why he's able
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: to not pitch that poorly in the A stadium, and
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: that should also help him in Fenway Park, which is
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: also kind of a home run conduce the ballpark. Gin
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: has a really low hit rate. His only issue is walks. Really,
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: he walks way too many guys. His strikeout rate is okay,
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: but yeah, he's wild at times, but he's really hard
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: to hit as well. Induces a pretty good amount of
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: ground balls, and the Red Sox have not had success
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: against him.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: They have six guys who.
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: Have faced him. They're only one for fifteen. The only
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: hit is a single from Durban. Three strikeouts, no walks,
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: sixty seven average one thirty three ops if you do
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: the math there. Yeah, I mean, I think the a's
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: might actually be a potential way to look in this game.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox are undecided, but I'm pretty sure it's.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: Gonna be Sandoval.
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: So I don't know what's going on with this undecided
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: thing here unless somebody's coming back. I mean, I know
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: Crochet is not coming back. If it is Sandoval, I mean,
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: I think that makes the fade of the Red Sox
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: a stronger play here because he's not good. He's easily
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: the Red sox worst starting pitcher. Like the Red Sox
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: have a really good starting rotation I think, and Sandoval
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: is clearly the worst.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: It's not even close.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: Even though he has a three point three eighty R
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: which looks good, but his whip is awful one point
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: six seven.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: His career hasn't really been good.
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, his numbers aren't even good here, Like his
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: home y ra all right three point six eight, but
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: his opponent batting average at home three point thirty three.
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: That's not good. He walked four guys last time out
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: against the White Sox. He's just been escaping every time, dude,
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: Like I know. The Red Sox have won all five
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: of his starts, including one in the A's Stadium, where
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: he actually had a pretty good start in that one
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: and had his highest strikeout rate in that one. I'm
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: still not buying. He has a really high hit rate,
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: a really high walk rate. His strikeout rate is actually
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: pretty good, but the rest of these numbers no, not good.
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: He's not a good pitcher. His numbers a gets the
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: A's overall and not good at thirty four at bats
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: to ninety four average, nine to fifty seven ops. Yeah,
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know if the Red Sox are
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: necessarily starting him, but I don't know who it would
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: be if it's not Sandobal, because it is his turn
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: in the rotation and they've won every game with him
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: on the mound, so I don't see why they wouldn't
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: just have him pitch again. But if it is him
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: against Gin, you're getting a huge underdog price with the
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: A's here.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: The Red Socks are at minus two.
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: Forty something, basically is what the number is here, eighty
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: eight percent of the tickets and seventy one percent of
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: the cash on them. I think the play is to
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: take the A's in the first five here.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: That's I think the way to play this game. The
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: money seems to agree with the A's here. The money's
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: also playing the.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: Over, which is nine and a half or ten.
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: I don't have a strong opinion as far as the
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: total because I kind of like one pitcher and not
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: the other.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: But I think the a have a started pitching edge.
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: Obviously they have a huge bullpen disadvantage, so I would
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: not play the A's full game here. Hopefully the Red
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: Sox win just for my rooting interests, but yeah, I
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: would take the A's in the first five there, and
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: you could probably get them at a pretty good price,
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: like on a run line or something to get them
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: plus one run even or something like that. So yeah,
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: that's how I would play that, Zach, what's up. Oh yeah, Royals.
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: Yes they're not good man. The oddsmakers have them as
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: one of the worst teams in baseball Braves and Yankees.
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: The Braves are actually trying to avoid a sweet pier
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: although it's been a competitive series. The Braves completely blew
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: the first game, which was a winner here on the show,
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: but it was a lucky winner that should not have
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: been a winner. Yankees were better in the game yesterday
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: and one again by one run. I'm not happy about that,
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: but I mean, this pitching matchup looks like it heavily
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: favors the Yankees though in this game, although the money
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: is coming in against them, and as you've noticed, the
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: money a lot of times does come in and just
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: play well. First of all, the professional money is probably thinking, well,
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: the Yankees are a little bit overvalued, although the price
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: on them is not high here, and it almost looks
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: too easy to play the Yankees here. But some of
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: it is because the Braves are still also a good team.
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: But I think the other reason is the money likes
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: that team to avoid the sweep because there's a motivational
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: angle there. But you do have to look who are
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: the Yankees playing tomorrow? Right? Like, are the Yankees really
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: going to overlook Atlanta here when their next opponent is Seattle?
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: I mean Seattle is sort of in the mix in
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: the American League, but this is a big series. I
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: don't really see either team overlooking the other one here.
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: The Yankees have a really good bullpen. They use three
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: guys out of the bullpen. I think Atlanta didn't use
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: as many guys, they only us two. This is a
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: close bullpen matchup though the Yankees are ranked fourth, although
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: they have the second best ra Braves are ranked third
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: in both Whip and the Ray, So it's a close
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: bullpen matchup here. Yankees probably have a slight edge there,
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: although I think they've had to use their better relievers
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: the last two games. Braves have the seventh ranked offense
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: and the Yankees fourteenth. The Yankees have been struggling pretty
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: much without Aaron Judge. The Yankees' offense has really not
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: been as good. But Atlanta is at a pitching disadvantage
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: here in the starting pitching. Like I said, Grant Holmes
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: is pitching for them. He's fine, but he's definitely not great.
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: Three point six to seveny RA, one point three to
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: four whip though, that's not very good. He is actually
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: a little bit better on the road though, three point
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: four to seven Roady Ra pitch well last time out
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: at home against Miami.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: Wasn't really doing that well before that. He was kind
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: of not.
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: Going too deep into some of these games. Atlanta's won
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: his last six starts though, so they've been winning with
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: him on the mound, and he's he hasn't been killing them, obviously,
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: but he's a very mediocre pitcher.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: He's got a decent hit rate here.
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: His walk grate is definitely too high, though, and he
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: doesn't strike out that many guys, so his strikeout walk
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: ratio is pretty ugly, and that's really kind of the
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: problem with him. The walks are really the issue with him.
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: Against the Yankees, he struggled as well in thirty one
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: at bat's bad numbers here three eighty seven average, one
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: thousand and eighty six.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Ops, four to three strike out walk ratio.
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: So I would not want to have my money on
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: Grant Holmes here, man, I'm sorry. And the Yankees are
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: going with Cam Schlitzler here. Schlitzler is obviously the better pitcher.
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: The thing is, is Schlitzler at the point where he's
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: exceeded his innings capacity. That's the question that needs to
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: be answered here. He's got a two point two six
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: y ray point nine.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: To five whip. Obviously, he's had a really good season.
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: He's been way worse at home though, believe it or not,
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: his homye ra is four point three to two, so
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: he's been considerably worse in this stadium. He was not
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: good last time out here in this stadium against Saint Louis.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: He didn't have it. He walked five guys in three innings.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: He was good in the prior to starts.
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: He was a little bit questionable against the Dodgers before that.
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: Now he's up to one hundred and forty innings basically,
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: and I usually say one hundred and fifty is usually
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: where I kind of just I throw like kind of
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: a Mendoza line out there. As far as these young
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: pitchers that haven't pitched this many innings before, where they
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: tend to kind of fall off a bit and I
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: start to worry about them, He's almost at that point,
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: and given that his last start was quite bad, I
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: think there is a little bit of cost for concern here.
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: Like I don't think we should treat Schlitler right now
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: as like this complete lights out pitcher, you know what
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: I mean. And that's the problem that I have with
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: this because it looks like the Yankees should win with
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: this pitching matchup, but the motivational standpoint isn't exactly there,
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: and Schlitzler, his recent performance and his home numbers would
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: concern me here. He does have a low hit rate,
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: though low walk rate, high strike up rate. All those
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: numbers are good, and the Braves they've actually hit him,
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: but they only have two guys who have ever faced
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: him seven at bats, but they do have a four
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: to twenty nine average against him and one thousand ops.
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: I don't know how much to take away from that
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: really small sample. I think maybe the way to play
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: this game is to just play the over. I mean,
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: it kind of sounds insane, but the money seems to
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: strongly agree with that. The total is pretty reasonable at
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: eight and a half, which actually does seem a little
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: bit high for a Schlitzler game, but sixty three percent
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: of tickets on the under ninety percent of the cash
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: on the over. I think that might be the best
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: way to play this, is to just take the over.
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: Maybe both started pitchers will give something up here, you know,
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: and the money is backing Atlanta. Again, I'm not really
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: so sure about that. The home road splits to at
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: least favor Homes here, but the motivation does sixty nine
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: percent of tickets on the Yankees, sixty percent of the
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: cash on Atlanta. My first instinct was that Schlitler is
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: obviously better than Homes, so I was thinking about possibly
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: the Yankees would be the lean in this game.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't play Atlanta. I'll tell you that.
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: I would not want to play Atlanta, although the money
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: is coming in that way. Yankees earn about minus one forty.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: But it looks way too easy to me to play
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: the Yankees.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: A Schlitzler.
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just him getting up there in the innings worries me,
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: even though generally I would say he clearly has the
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: pitching edge here. But yeah, it's a stay away from me.
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: But I think the over might actually hit in that game,
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: all right. Mets Pittsburgh, Mets and Pirates. The Pirates won
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: yesterday to end a losing streak. Then one nine and nothing.
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: Nice win for the Pirates yesterday. Behind who the hell
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: pitched in that game? That was Bubba Chandler, right, Bubba
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: Chandler actually putting up a good start.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Maybe, dude, he's got some talent.
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: Man, I'll say that in our our man, mister unsolved
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: Mystery's had a terrible game. He's not an unsolved mystery,
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: I will tell you that, Robert Stock. Yeah, so I
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: kind of felt like Pittsburgh had the much higher upside
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: pitcher in that game, and that really showed in that
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: game yesterday. What's gonna happen in this game, I don't know.
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, Pittsburgh might have more motivation here because they're
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: still trying to make the playoffs whereas the Mets are not.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: And Pittsburgh does have the better starter on the mound too.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: So my read on this game was to look towards Pittsburgh,
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: and I still would agree with that, but it's not
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: gonna make the cut for me. Pittsburgh doesn't really have
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: a good bullpen, and these two guys out of the
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: bullpen yesterday. They did improve it at the trade deadline,
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: but I don't think that's gonna be enough, and the
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: Mets only just one guy out of their bullpen. The
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: Mets have been a pretty good bullpen, even though they
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: sold a little bit at the trade deadline. They're still
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: ranked sixth and Pittsburgh is ranked twenty third, although that
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: was including everything before the trade deadline. But I still
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: think the Mets are the better bullpen here. Pittsburgh is
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: obviously the better offense, especially at home. They were ranked
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: fourth overall, Mets are twenty seventh. Pittsburgh even better at home,
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: as I was alluding to him, and the Mets are
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: going with Sean Mania in this game, who is not
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: great four point three to three ra one point three.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: To eight whip.
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: He's a little bit worse on the road four point
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: four to seven. Roady Ram looks like he pitched pretty
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: well last time out, but he walked five guys against Cleveland,
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: didn't allow.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: Many runs and got the win.
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: But his old UH walk issues seem to be kind
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: of coming back a little bit, maybe if you want
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: to gauge based off of that one start at least,
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: but he actually pitched fairly well throughout the month July,
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: so I mean, Mania is not exactly.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: He's not a guy that's.
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: Necessarily gonna go out there and get killed, you know
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: what I mean, Like he's mediocre.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: He's got a hit rate that's a little bit too high.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Is walk rate is.
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: Actually lower than what I'm used to seeing from him.
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is okay as well, So he's not
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: that bad against Pittsburgh.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: He's actually been good in twenty three at bats.
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: You only have five guys who have faced him, though
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: they do have one extra base hit, which is a
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: home run from Brian Reynolds, but they have an eighty
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: seven average against him overall, four to forty oh ps,
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: six to four strike out walker ratio. So starting to
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: dive into these numbers, I don't really want to fade
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: Maniah here. Jared Jones is pitching for Pittsburgh though, and
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: he's the younger pitcher with way more upside here. I
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: think Jones is a good pitcher, and he started to
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: pitch well again coming back from injury this year. Four
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: point two ERA, one point one to one whip is
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: definitely solid, though that indicates that his ERA should probably
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: be in the threes. He's been debatably better at home,
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: even though his ERA is a little bit worse at home.
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: One seventy nine opponent batting average at home tells you
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: that he is pretty good at home.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Didn't do well last time out though at Milwaukee.
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: He definitely struggled in that one, But he was pitching
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: really well before that, like he had.
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: A really good month of July prior to that.
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: He's got a low hit rate on the season, his
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: walk rate's pretty low as well, strikeout rate is high.
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: So all those numbers are good for him across the board,
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: and the Mets haven't really seen him much. They only
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: have four hitters who have faced him, and they're zero
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: for eight with four strikeouts and no walks.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: So the Mets don't have.
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: Anybody in their current lineup that has reached base against
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: Jones before. He's hard to get man, but this also
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: means he's gonna have an unfamiliarity edge here. I still
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: think maybe Pittsburgh in the first five is a way
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: to look here. But the money's coming in on the
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: Mets sixty two percent of the tickets around Pittsburgh, sixty
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: one percent of the cash on the Mets. I don't
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: like Pittsburgh's bullpen enough. I think Jones should out pitch
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: manayah here, but you're gonna have to lay probably a
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: half run in the first five. Like, you know, if
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: the price is minus one forty for the full game
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: on Pittsburgh, it's gonna be higher than that in the
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: first five because the oddsmakers obviously know their biggest advantage
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: here is gonna be with the starters. But maybe that's
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: an approach in this game, is to lay the half
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: run with Pittsburgh in the first five. They do score
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: a lot at home. Typically the money is also back
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: in the over. I don't really agree with that. The
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: totals at eight. I think both pitchers, looking at their
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers, might do okay. I'd worry a bit about
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's bullpen. Of course, a first five under I think
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: maybe in consideration here though you know me hating first
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: five unders recently, But yeah, I think maybe Pittsburgh first
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: five might be the better at play.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: But the money is completely against it.
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: All right, Toronto and Philadelphia, this game almost made the
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: cut for me. I like the over in this game.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia has lost both games in the series so far.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: Both games have been fairly high scoring, by the way,
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: but Yesterday's don't be misled though, because Yesterday's went into
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: extra innings, So yesterday's game was not as high scoring
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: as it looked. Four runs came in after the ninth
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: inning was over, so it was an eight run game.
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: It was a four to four game at the end
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: of nine innings, so keep that in mind.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: It was not quite as high scoring as it looked.
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: But what it means is that the bullpens are going
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: to be taxed. Bullpens had to pitch extra innings yesterday.
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia used a lot of their guys. They use six
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: guys out of the bullpen, and they're not a good
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: bullpen anyway. Toronto also used a bunch. They used five
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: I think is what that is. Toronto, I think is
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: generally the better bullpen. The rank seventeenth Toronto, excuse Philadelphia eighteenth,
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: Toronto seventeenth. I don't like how either bullpen really sets
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: up here though. A lot of the better relievers came
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: into the game yesday, so that's part of the reason
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: why I like the over here is I think both
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: bullpens are fadable, Like after you have an intense extra
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: innings game like that, I think you can fade the
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: bullpens in the next game a lot of times, even
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: though I know it's banking on the over two games
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: in a row. One thing that's kind of having me
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: shy away from this, though, is that these offenses are
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: not very good via twenty third, although they're definitely underperforming
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: Toronto dead last at thirty if they've had a really
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: bad time offensively this year.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: So that does worry me a little bit.
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: The other thing that worries me is both these pitchers,
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: like when they're at their best, they're really good. So
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: you look at this, like, if you know me, you'd
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: probably think this would look more like an under play
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: to me, so I go.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: I went back and forth on this.
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: After I dug into the matchup numbers, and it really
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: looks like an over to me, especially considering that the
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: bullpens are going to be really taxed here, so I
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: think you could actually fade the pitching throughout this game.
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: But then I kept going back to, well, the offenses
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: aren't good, and both these starting pitchers might come out
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: and just deal in this game, you know what I mean,
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: And the fact that these offenses are not that good
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: might help any of the deficiencies that these starting pitchers
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: might have so I don't love it really. Shane Bieber
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: is pitching for Toronto here. I mean, he's had a
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: difficult season. He's trying to come back from injury again.
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: He's got a five point one one ERA, one point
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: six to eight whip. He's been really bad on the
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: road eight point four roadio raging. But if you look
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: at his career, he's been a really good pitcher throughout
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: his career. He's not old yet at thirty one, so
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: something tells me I keep going back to I don't
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: think he's done yet. He had a really bad game
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: against Washington. I think we lost an under in that
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: game in the first five after he was really good
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: in the prior to starts, and then what did he do?
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: Of course, I don't play him in the next game,
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: and what did he do? He bounced back and had
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: a pretty nice start against Houston last time out, although
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: he gave up too many hits. He did get a
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: little bit lucky, putting eleven guys on base and only
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: longing one run, but that was much better than his
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: previous performance. So three of his last four starts have
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: been quality starts. So he's pitching fairly well right now,
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: though his overall numbers are bad. His hit rates too high,
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: his walk rate is way too high.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: His strike gout rate is down, and that is another
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: concern with him.
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: He's not really striking guys out right now, which has
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: to worry you because back when he was a good pitcher,
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: believe his strike out rate was pretty high.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: Let me see where am I looking here? Where's the
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: strikeout calumn?
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Oh?
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: There it is?
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, so he used to be a pretty strong
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: strikeout pitcher, so that is a bit of a concern.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: Against the Phillies, this is also kind of concerning. They
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: have forty four at bats against. Some of those only
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: six hitters two ninety five average, so they've definitely hit
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: him for contact. They haven't really hit him for much
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: power though, seven forty one ohps is still below that
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: seven fifty Mendoz aligned. But generally these numbers don't look
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: too good to me. For Bieber seven to four strikeout
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: walk ratio also not good. I think he might be
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: fadable here and Jesu's Lozardo pitching for Philadelphia here. Both
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: pitchers are in the worst of their home road splits.
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: Bieber is worse on the road this year Lozardo has
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: been significantly worse at home, so that's also part of
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: the reason why I was leaning over here. The other
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: thing is, though Lozardro has been pitching a lot better recently,
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: he's been way better at home recently too, so he's
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: just turned everything around pretty much. So I don't know
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: if I really want to fade him. And of course
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: we know the stat that I've been giving out that
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: the Phillies have this like ridiculous winning record with their
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: top three starters pitching, Sanchez, Wheeler and Lozardro. They win
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: like seventy percent of the time with one of those
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: three guys on the mound, and they lose the vast
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: majority of the time with anybody else on the mound,
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: which was the case yesterday. Lozardo three point three six ERA,
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: one point one to six whip. Those are good numbers.
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: His ERA at home doesn't look good at four point
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: eight five, but it's gone down. He's gotten a little
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: bit unlucky with the amount of home runs that he's
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: allowed at home. He did have like a six ERA
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: at home for a while, but obviously it's getting better.
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: You look at what he's done recently. He was really
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: good last time out at home against Washington. The time
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: before that at home against the Yankees, had a good like.
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: His last three home starts have all been good. Actually,
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: his last four have all been good against Toronto, though
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: he's actually.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Not good believing or not.
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: In thirty nine at bats three zero way at average,
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: eight twenty two ops, eleven of five strikeout walk ratio.
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: So I like the over here, like I said, and
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: it was close to making the cut for me, but
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: there are some things that I don't like about it.
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: And the money is also kind of disagreeing with me.
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: Fifty eight percent of tickets on the over, fifty three
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on the under, So it looks
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: like the money is slightly indicating under here at eight
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: and a half, I lean over, but it doesn't make
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: the cut for me, although this was close to me
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: on my card.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Hopefully it's a good exclusion from my card here. Philly
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: is also at minus two hundred.
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: I mean they're the better team, but like I said,
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: I think they're overrated if you look at their record.
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: I don't like Philly at that price. Eighty percent of
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: the tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash on them.
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: Although what I do like is Philly is the better
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: team here and they're trying to avoid a sweep at home,
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: and that is a strong scenario. When you have the
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: better team at home trying to avoid a sweep, they
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: should be motivated. Toronto does have the Red Sox next,
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: I believe, so Toronto might start looking ahead to that
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: a little bit. The money is slightly indicating on Philly
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: at eighty percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: cash them. I think if you want to try to
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: back Philadelphia in some way here, because I think the
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: over might hit here and Philly should win, you could
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: play Philly over their team total and they might hit that,
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean, But you're gonna need them
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: to probably score.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: Five runs at least. You might need six on that.
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: But they might be able to get it done against Bieber,
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: who might still be shaking, and then Toronto's used up bullpend.
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: That might actually be the better approach there, Philly over
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: team total, Anaheim and Miami. I first looked at this
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: and this really was kind of screaming over to me
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: based on the starting pitching matchup here. I probably do
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: lean that way, but it's not gonna make the cut.
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: For me here, Miami just won seven and nothing yesterday.
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: I'll contra, I think had a really good game yesterday,
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: and it looks like my man, your rainy I guess
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: did not do too well yesterday.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: Miami ended a four game losing streak.
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: The one thing about Miami is they're still gonna be
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: playing with motivation because they're still trying to make the playoffs.
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: Here is not doing that. Anaheim sold at the trade deadline,
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: so there's a motivational edge from Miami here. Plus, ending
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: a losing streak usually gives you new momentum. So I
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: think the situational spot favors of Miami. The starting pitching
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: probably does not, though Miami does have the better bullpen.
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: Though Miami used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: Anaheim actually yeah, wait, yeah, we're talking about anhem ya
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: Anhim didn't use any Is that right? That doesn't make sense,
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: does it? They give up seven runs? How could that
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: be the case? Let me just look what did they
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: do yesterday?
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Unless did they.
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: Leave Urania in for the whole game? Oh no, Urania
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: I guess got knocked out early in the game.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: He was bad.
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: And then they use Kerry who I guess he's not
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: even listed in their bullpen, but they used him to
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: eat up all the rest of the innings. So Anaheim's
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: their bullpen is rested here at this point, but they're
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: not a good bullpen. They're ranked twenty first, Miami's ranked fifth.
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: I don't think Miami's quite that good, so I don't
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: think the gap is like this extreme, but Miami probably
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: still as the better bullpen here even with the slight
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: rest disadvantage. Miami's eleventh offensively, Anaheim is twenty six, so
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: Miami wins offensively as well in the way the matchup
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: grades out here. Anaheim is going with Grayson Rodriguez, who
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: I think is actually pretty difficult to figure out. I mean,
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: he's a guy who looked like he was not too
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: bad when he was on Baltimore, looked like he was
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: starting to get his career going. Then he got totally
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: derailed by an injury, missed an entire season. He's trying
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: to come back, and he hasn't been good this year.
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: Seven point two to four ERA, one point five to
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: nine whip not good, although he's been better on the
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: road four point six to four road her with a
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: much better opponent batting average to twenty one, so he's
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: been reasonably good on the road. He bitched well last
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: time on the road against his former team Baltimore, and
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: I thought that that would be a motivated spot for
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: him because that was him facing the team that got
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: rid of him for the first time, and he did
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: do well in that start. And he's actually been pretty
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: good in his last two starts, which is interesting. So
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: maybe he's kind of trying in the right direction here.
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: I don't fully trust him at this point, but it
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: looks like he's starting to kind of figure some things
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: out here. His hit rate is still too high, his
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: walk rate is still too high, strikeout rate isn't really
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: that good, but he's I think he's not as bad
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: as his overall numbers make him look at the very least,
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: and Miami has no experience against him pretty much.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: Only Ruiz has faced him, zero for two.
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: With the strikeout, so Rodriguez does have an unfamiliarity edge here,
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: which might help him out a little bit because I
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: think when the offense hasn't seen him before, he might
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: pitch a little bit better. And this is a pitcher
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: friendly park generally, too. Miami is going with Ryan Gusto,
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: who I don't think is very good. His numbers are
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: not horrible here four point eight year ray, one point
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: three to six. Some of it has been out of
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: the bullpen, and I would say, if you want to
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: play this game, you might want to take action at
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: least on the Miami side, because Gusto might come in
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: after an opener, although he has been starting.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Recently, so he probably will just make the start here.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: He was pretty good in his last game against Atlanta,
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: but I don't know if that's really sustainable. It was
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: a good start, no doubt about a decent sign for him,
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: but he's not really that good of a pitcher. He
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: was bad in the previous game back here at home
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: against Philadelphia. He's generally been a little bit better at
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: home though. Four point five to seven homey RA and
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: the more picture from the environment here. These numbers, all
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: these include all of his relief appearances. Though still has
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: a hit rate that's too high. He doesn't really walk
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: that many guys, which is which is alright. His strike
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: out rate is all right as well, but his problem
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: is he's too hittable.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: For the most part.
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: Anaheim has some numbers that are a bit all over
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: the map against him. It's a small sample, four hitters
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: of face them thirteen at bats. Sean Well, however, you
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: Shanyewell has two of them runs against him, They have
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: a two point thirty one averagement in nine to seventy
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: eight ops because of those home runs for strikeouts, one walk.
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: It's it's hard to gauge from that what he's gonna
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: look like against Anaheim because Anaim's offense really isn't that good.
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: I was thinking over in this, Like I said, I
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: probably still would probably have that as the lean in
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: this one. Total at eight and a half, I think
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: neither pitcher is really that good, plus one of the
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: bullpens is.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Not very good. So that's my slight lean in that one.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: It's not a strong opinion though.
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: We have fifty six percent of tickets and cash on
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: the under though, and Miami is favored at around minus
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: one forty something. The money is coming against them. The
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: line is dropped on Miami eighty one percent of tickets
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: and only sixty seven percent of the cash on them,
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: So the money's coming in towards Anaheim, and I kind
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: of agree with that, Like I actually think g Rod
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: has more upside here than our Gusto Gusto Gusto g
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: R versus RG. Yeah, I think Anaheim first five I
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: would exclude their bullpen. Anaheim first five might be a
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: way to look here, because again I think if he's
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: figuring stuff out, I think Grayson Rodriguez has the higher
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: ceiling here than Gusto, who's just kind of like a
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: career relief man and spot starter type of guy, which,
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: you know, I throw a lot of shade on guys
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: like that.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: They do have their purpose.
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: But you know, mister Pinsy, what's up. Thanks for hanging out. Yeah,
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: Toto Baggins, that's a pretty good one. I am a hobbit,
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: so I'm short. I don't have the hairy feet though,
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: but I'm short.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: Mary.
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: I sing a lot, and I used to drink at least,
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: and I eat a lot of meals, all right, or
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: eat a lot of food, I guess I would say,
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: not really meals.
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: My reviews will continue on Twitter.
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: Even though I'm not gonna do the cookies every week
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: because it's just way too much.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: It's extreme.
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna eat six full sized cookies a week.
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: I could get the minies, but the price is better.
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: To get the full size. So whatever, but I will
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: do the fast food reviews still sporadically when places release
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: stuff that interests me.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: All right, Cubs in Kansas City, here you go, Zach.
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: Kansas City won yesterday, So these teams have split the
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: series so far, but looks like they celebrated quite a bit.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's not a good thing. Yeah, we just won
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: a game. Yeah great. The Cubs are still the better
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: team here.
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: I think the Cubs have the better starting pitcher, the
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: Cubs have the better bullpend, the Cubs have the better
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: hitting here.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: We all know the Cubs are the better team.
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: They have more motivation, probably as well because they're trying
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: to make the playoffs. Here, the Cubs are ranked twelfth
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: in bullpen. Kansas City is dead last, although their ERA
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: is better than the A's, but they're a bad bullpend.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: They're yeah, second worst. Probably. Cubs are number three in offense.
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: The Royals are nineteenth, so the Cubs have the advantages there.
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: The Cubs are going with Matthew Boyd in this one.
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: He's been decent three point five to nine ERA, one
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: point two to whip.
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: He's had kind of an injury riddled.
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: Season, but he seems to be sort of back at
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: full strain now, and he's been good on the road
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: two point five to seven roady ra so when you
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: take him away from the wind factor at Wrigley.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: Field, he's been better.
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: He pitched okay last time out against the Dodgers, enough
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: to get the win in that one, but he got
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: a lot of run support there, and he was pretty
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: good and in the three starts prior to that, so
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: he's in decent form right now.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: I would say he's got a reasonably low hit rate here.
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: His walk rate's pretty low as well, strikeout rate not
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: too high, but overall these numbers are not bad. Numbers
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: against Kansas City are decent as well. In ninety two
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: at bats two thirty nine average, six forty oh ps,
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: eighteen to four strike out walk ratio. So I would
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: not really have any issues backing Boyd here other than
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: it's really the price is where I kind of have
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: a problem because I do lean to the Cubs here.
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: I think they're the better team trying to win the series,
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: but the price doesn't seem quite right, and I don't
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: know what to do with Randy dob Knack, who's pitching
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: again for Kansas City here. I mean, this is a
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: guy who really just hasn't stuck in Major League Baseball,
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: and he's kind of just in the rotation because Kansas
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: City doesn't have anybody else.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: And he's got a.
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: One point one to six y r RAM, one point
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: one to nine whip and those are not bad numbers.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: He's given up runs at home.
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: Oh my god, he's worse at home than he is
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: on the road because he hasn't allowed to run yet
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: on the road. Two point seven home, he ra. I'm
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: still not gonna buy it, though, Like I think at
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: some point this is not sustainable, dude, for a guy
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: that's been kind of just in and out of the league.
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: His career numbers are considerably worse than this. He's over
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: performing right now, and you look at his overall numbers.
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's not gonna sustain in the ra like this.
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: When he has a fifteen to thirteen strike out walk
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: ratio in thirty one innings. That walk grade isn't really
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: that bad, but the strike out rate is really low.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: He doesn't strike anybody out.
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: His hit rate is actually fairly good, though he doesn't
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: allow that many hits. He does get a lot of
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: ground balls, but I think that's kind of masking the
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: fact that he's not that good. And you know that
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: based on this profile, advanced analytics guys will be jumping
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: in him for him to regress at some point. Maybe
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: it won't happen in this game, and the Cubs haven't
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: really beat him.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: Up that badly in fourteen at bats.
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: Two eighty six average is a pretty high average, but
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: really no power in here seven to fourteen ops. The
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: only extra base hit is a Swanson triple here two strikeouts,
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: no walk, So dob Knock might actually do okay again here.
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: I'd still lean to the Cubs, but the money doesn't
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: agree with me at all, and some of that has
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: to do with the price that like minus one fifty,
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: which has actually dropped from minus one to sixty eight.
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: So the money has definitely come in against the Cubs here.
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna want to do it.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: Boyd.
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: He's been good against the Royals, although the Royals do
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: have some familiarity with him because he was on Cleveland
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: for a little bit. But eighty four percent of tickets
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: on the Cubs. The public is coming in on the Cubs. Obviously,
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: they're not gonna come in on the Royals. The money
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: looks like it is on the Royals, though it's sixty
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: six percent of the cash. You won't find me doing it,
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: but that's what the money is saying. But I think
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: the Cubs do have the edge throughout this game. My
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: lean would be towards the Cubs here. You'd have to
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: lay a run line with them, like make your own
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: minus one. But at least they'll definitively bat in the
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: ninth inning, at least because they're on the road, so
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: they might be able to pad their run total there.
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: The totals at ten, and the money is backing the
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: under here fairly strongly, which I do see some arguments
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: for that, like if you just looked at what we
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: just saw with those two pitchers, maybe Dob Knock will
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: do well enough here, Maybe both pitchers will do well
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: enough to keep.
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: The first five under.
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: I woantn't go full game under because the Royals do
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: I ever want to back the Royals bullpen. I don't
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: think there's ever gonna be a scenario where I want
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: to back their bullpen. But first five under you'll get
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: a decent number on that. At least it's probably five
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: and a half or something like that. That might be
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: an approach in that game as well, to take the
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: starters to pitch decently there. All right, Cleveland and the
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: White Sox, this is a big series man for both teams.
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: White Sox are still ahead in the Al Central. White
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: Sox won yesterday at the end of four game losing streak,
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: which might help give them some new momentum here coming
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: into this game. They split this series now with Cleveland.
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: So far, both teams are obviously gonna show up. Cleveland
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: is behind the White Sox by three games. Again here,
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: I gave out a winner on Cleveland in the first
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: game of this series, but it had to do with
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: a good situation fade Chicago in the return home spot. Plus,
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: they had a ton of bullpen usage against the Red Sox.
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: White Sox use four relief pitches yesterday. It looks like
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: they might be the better bullpen right now over Cleveland.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Cleveland used four as well.
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: Cleveland's era has gone up above four now out of
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: the bullpen, which I don't love that they're twentieth right
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: now in bullpen. The White Sox are sixteenth. Maybe the
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: White Socks are slightly better. I think it is close, though,
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: I think neither bullpen is that bad. Though the White
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: Socks are definitely the better offensive team their fifteenth.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: Cleveland has definitely struggled.
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: They're twenty ninth, even though they've they tried to address
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: that at the trade deadline, but they're not gonna be
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: a good offense all of a sudden, Cleveland, believe it
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: or not. I actually think Cleveland might have the better
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: starting pitcher in this game, though, with Joey Cantillo three
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: point eight to.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: Seventy e r RA.
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: Even though his whip is bad one point four to seven,
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: he's got good strikeouts stuff.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: The problem is he walks a ton of guys.
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: But he hasn't really been that much worse than the
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: road three point nine to four Roadie opponent batting average
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: is a bit worse on the road, though, so yes,
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: he is at least a little bit worse.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: On the road.
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: He was decent last time out against the Mets. He's
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: been I don't know. I would say he's been somewhat
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: okay over the last month plus. His hit rate is
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: still right around one per inning, though, which a guy
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: that has his profile, you want to see that be
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: lower because he walks too many guys on top of then,
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: and this strikeout rate is good, and usually a strikeout
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: guy like that usually has a lower hit rate than this,
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: so I don't know what's going on with that, So
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: that worries me a little bit. But the walks are
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: really the main concern with him.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: He's just way too wild. But he's been okay against
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: the White Socks.
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: They only have six guys who have faced him twenty
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: seven at bats, two fifty nine average, seven O four ops.
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: Those are decent numbers for Cantillo, so it looks like
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: he does have a matchup edge here slightly nine strikeouts,
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: no walks there, so he hasn't walked any of them,
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: which is interesting because he is a walk heavy pitcher,
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: but not against the White Sox. Davis Martin pitching for
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: the White Sox. This guy seems like he's imploding. He
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: was really good for a while this season, but his
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: numbers have become not so good because he hasn't been
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: pitching well recently.
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: Maybe he just got over extended. I don't really know.
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: He's not really that young at this point, or maybe
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: just his first half of the season.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: Maybe it was just a bit of an outlier.
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's the case because he.
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: Is old and well, not old, but he's older, and
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: it seemed like it came.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: From out of nowhere.
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: Four point one to three RA one point three to
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: one whip is not that good. He is good at
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: home though, two point seven to three home he RA,
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: so he's definitely better at home. Had a bad start
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: last time out against the Red Sox though. The Red
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: Sox hammered him three home runs, ten hits in five innings.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Nine runs.
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they they really smacked him around, and he hasn't
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: been that good over the past month plus, so there
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: were definitely some warning signs, to say the least, with
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: Martin here. He might have made the All Star team.
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: He didn't play in the game, but he might have
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: made the All Star roster. So maybe that threw him
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: off a little bit as well, because it seemed like
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: he started kind of imploding around that point of the season.
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: He's got a hit rate that's actually a little bit
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: too high at this point. His walk rate is not
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: too bad, though he doesn't really walk that many guys.
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: Strike out rate isn't really that high, it's mediocre. Numbers
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: against Cleveland are actually bad. In forty seven at bats.
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: This is a lot of it bats to have numbers
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: this bad. They have a four to twenty six average
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: off him, this bad offense. They've hammered this guy eleven
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: twenty nine ops, three to six strikeout walk ratio. Those
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: are bad numbers. So I think I have to lead
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: to Cleveland in this game. I don't know if I
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: like their bulpen enough to do that, but the money
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: is definitely indicating on Cleveland here. They're favored, which I
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: don't know if Cantillo should really be favored on the road,
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: but it's interesting that the team with the lesser record,
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: Cleveland is actually favored on the road. The public is
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: coming in on the White Sox side. They're probably thinking, Hey,
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: the White Sox the better team, the better offensive team.
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: That's what the public is thinking. You get them as
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: an underdog, give me that. But the market indicators look
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: pretty strong on Cleveland here, fifty four percent of tickets
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: on the White Sox, ninety percent of the cash on Cleveland.
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: White Sox opened the favorite in this game, and it
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: flipped over to Cleveland. So there's been a favorite flip
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: in this game. I think the oddsmakers they're indicating something
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: to you by not lining the White Sox as a
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: heavy favorite here, they're kind of telling you they think
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: these teams are pretty closely matched, and maybe Cleveland is
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: even the better team in this game given this matchup.
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is not one of the White Sox
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: worst pitchers here either, so that's interesting. I think Cleveland
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: first five might make the most sense, and then you
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: take advantage of what I think is maybe the biggest
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: advantage they have is the starting pitching matchup.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: Believe it or not, there So Cleveland first five.
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: I think is the way to look at that game
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: money line, although the moneyline will probably be a little
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: bit heavier on that than it is in the full game.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Maybe not, though Minnesota and Milwaukee.
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee got back on the right track with a win yesterday,
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: although they barely won four to three, So these teams
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: will split the serious of farm in Minnesota still trying
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: to win here, trying to make the playoffs, but they're
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: gonna have a tough time here going up against probably
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: the best pitcher in baseball here in this game, and
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee is the better team basically every phase of this game.
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee did use four relief pitchers yesterday, but they're the
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: better bullpen. Minnesota used three. Milwaukee's one of the better
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: bullpens in baseball. They are ranked where are they at?
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: They're ranked eighth, but I think they're better than that.
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: Minnesota's ranked twenty eighth and they're around that. They're like
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: a bottom several bullpen. They're not good. Brewers have been
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: a good offense as well. They're eighth. The Twins are twelve,
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: tied with the Red Sox. I think Milwaukee is the
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: better offense here as well. The pitching matchup is a
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: little bit interesting though. We have a low total here,
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: so the oddsmakers kind of think that the pitching is
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: gonna be good on both sides.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: We have two young pitchers going at it here, and
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: obviously one has completely established himself and is excellent. The
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: other one might be a little bit under the radar,
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: which just Connor pre Lip. I think this is his
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: rookie season. He's had an up and down season, but
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: he's there are some signs that he's not a bad
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: pitcher here. He's got a four point seventy five VRA
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: one point three to one whip. Those are mediocre numbers.
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: He's not been good on the road though, six point
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: two to eight ROADYRRA and an opponent batting average one
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: hundred points higher at three h five, so you don't
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: really want to back him on the road. And he
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: walked a ton of guys last time out against Seattle,
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: but he's not that bad. He's not allowing that many runs.
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: And the one really good sign from him is that
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: he's striking guys out at the major league level, so
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: he has a high strikeout rate. His hit rate is
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: reasonably low, which you know what that means. His issue
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: is the walks. He walks too many guys, and that
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: can be corrected, especially when you're a guy that's young
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: like him. A lot of times they'll figure it out
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: and they'll improve their command as they go. And he's
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: also not thrown too many innings yet this year because
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: I think at some point he was either down in
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: the miners again where he was hurt or something, so
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: he hasn't really thrown that many innings this year.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee has not done well against him so far.
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: In fifteen of bats, six hit of face and they
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: have a two hundred average six fifty ops against him,
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: four strikeouts, one walk. Now, the thing they have to
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: be aware of though, is that Prelip was completely unfamiliar
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: to them when they faced him before, so he had
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: an extra advantage of Milwaukee having to figure him out
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: on the fly, whereas now Milwaukee has seen him once
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: and they might know what to expect.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: That was back in mid May, though it was a
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: while ago.
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: That was a good start from Prelip, but it was
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: also at home, but that was one of his better
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: starts of the season. He did really well against Milwaukee
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: in that one, and they still lost because he got
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: no run support. But Prelip might actually be backable in
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: that game, although I worry about his road numbers obviously,
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: as you could tell, Jacob Mizierowski is getting the start
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: from Milwaukee here.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: His numbers are insane.
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: One point sixty three RA point seven to three whip
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: is absurdly low. He's been basically a good home and
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: away it doesn't even really matter, but at home, as
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: the ray is better at one point five to one.
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: He's had double digit strikeouts in four of his last
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: five starts. So move over, Gavin Williams. I guess yeah,
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: I mean this is some good stuff here. Obviously, he's
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: got a really low hit rate. He's along fewer or
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: he's long right around one hit every two innings. His
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: walk rate is also pretty low. His strikeout rate is
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: very high, really really really good numbers obviously, and Minnesota
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: has only seen him a few times. They have not
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: faced him in one of his actual starts. I think
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: these are I don't think at least because they only
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: have three guys to have faced him six at bats
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: and they're zero for six with two strikeouts and no walks.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: So I think the way to look at this game
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: is an under.
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: I'd probably go first, five under because I hate Minnesota's bullpen.
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: The problem is it's gonna be a low number, like
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: the full game totals at seven. You might be able
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: to find a seven and a half still with some
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: juice on it. Money is coming in on the under
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: fifty tickets on the over sixty nine percent of the
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: cash on the under. The money is also fading Milwaukee
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: n tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on them.
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: They're public.
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: I would have fade Milwaukee here, although yeah, the price
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: is too high.
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: Like Milwaukee should win.
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: They have the better, they have the advantage in every
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: aspect of this game, in my opinion, and based on
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: the numbers and whatever, but minus two fifty is a
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: pretty high price, especially given that it's a low total.
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: And you know, I say low totals, it means the
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: underdog has a better chance to hang around, and pre
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: Lip might be able to kind of hang around in
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: this game, you know what I mean. So I think
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: first five under is the way to play this. But
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be a low number. It's gonna be like
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: three and a half or maybe even three, so there's
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: not really a lot of leeway there, and pre Lip's
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: not good on the road, and if he slips up,
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: your bet might be in trouble.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: That's the thing.
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: You could do something like Minnesota under their team total
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: because Milwaukee's pitching should be good.
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: Throughout this game.
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: So maybe you could do something like that, go Minnesota
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: under their team total, because if you think Milwaukee's gonna
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: win and it's gonna be a low scoring game, probably
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: that means Minnesota's gonna be held off the board for
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: the most part.
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: So maybe you do it that way.
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: You'll need them to probably score no more than two
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: runs in the game, though, which is always a difficult
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: to ask. I don't like those team totals under very much,
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: you know, all right, but that's what I think about
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: that game.
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: First.
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: Five under was kind of my first That was like
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: my best read on the game really when I broke
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: that down earlier. All Right, Colorado and Saint Louis for
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: dirty sock here, these teams have split the series. Colorado
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: was able to get the win yesterday to even the
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: series at one one. I mean, at this point, these
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: two teams are just playing out the stretch. I mean,
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: these two teams are not going anywhere. Saint Louis sold
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: at the trade deadline. I think Colorado didn't really do
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: a whole lot. Saint Louis used two guys out of
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: the bullpen yesterday. Colorado used five, which is not good.
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: Neither of these bullpens are good. Saint Louis is twenty second,
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: Colorado twenty seventh. They're bullpens that you definitely, I would say,
• 57:57
  Speaker 3: want to fade.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: Colorado is fifth.
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: Off fifthly, but this is a more pitcher of friendly
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: park here. Saint Louis has been pretty bad offensively recently.
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: They're twenty fifth, so Colorado does have the better offense here.
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: The pitching here, it looks kind of one sided in
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: the Saint Louis direction. Colorado is going with Michael Lorenzen,
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: who is not very good. A six point nine for
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: ERA one point eight five whip is horrible. He's better
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: on the road, although better is kind of relative, but
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: his ERA is like four runs better on the road
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: than it is in course field. I don't even know
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: why Colorado picked him up, like he obviously can't pitch
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: a course field, but at least on the road is
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: era's five point one six, which is still bad, but
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: it's at least not over nine like it.
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: Is at home. Although he's still way too hittable either way.
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: That's his main issue, and he's been getting beat up
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: in a lot of these starts. His hit rate is
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: really high, He's like one of the most hittable pitchers
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: in baseball, really bad. His walker rate is not really
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: even that good either. His strikeout rate is also low.
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: None of these numbers are good, However, It's a pitcher
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: friendly park and Saint Louis they're not a good offense,
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: but they have been able to get to Lorenzen in
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: the few times they have faced, and they have eleven
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: at bats against him across three hitters and They do
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: have a four to fifty five average of fifteen hundred
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: ops against him one to one strike a walk ratio,
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: but it is a bad offense and a pitcher friendly park. Still,
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: I don't think i'd want to back lorenz in here.
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis is going with Michael McGreevy.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: He's okay.
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: The advanced analytics guys really hate him. They keep saying
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: he's gonna regress, and that has kind of happened. His
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: last couple of starts have not been good. His overall
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: numbers still look pretty good at three point five to
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: nine ERA one point two whip is not excellent, but
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: it's not that bad. He's good at home for the
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: most part. Three point two eight home ERA. Really got
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: beat up against the Cubs a couple of starts to.
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: Go here in this stadium.
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: Wasn't as bad last time out against the Yankees, and
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: maybe you give him a pass for that because that
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: was a difficult assignment. They won the game, but it
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: was because there was a lot of run support. But
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: McGreevy wasn't too bad in that one against an offense
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: that is capable obviously, like the Yankees. McGreevy has a
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: reasonably low hit rate here. It doesn't really walk many guys.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: Doesn't strike anybody out though, and that's why the advanced
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: analytics guys don't like him. His strikeout walk ratio is
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: not very good because of that, which I agree it's
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: not great. His numbers against the Rockies are not bad though,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: in thirty five at bats two fifty seven average, six
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: hundred ohps four zero strike out walk ratios.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: I think I would have to lean Saint Louis in.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: This game, but I'm gonna guess that the money is
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: not agreeing with that. Yeah, eighty five percent of tickets,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: eighty one percent of the cash on them. The money
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: line has dropped a little bit, so the money is
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: indicating on Colorado. I'm not gonna be doing that again.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: A lot of it has to do with the price.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis is about minus one sixty, but I think
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: I would probably just make a minus one run line
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: or something on Saint Louis, and that's the way I
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: would play this one. I think they have the starting
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: pitching edge, they have the better bullpen, as bad as
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: it is and certainly nowhere near as Colorado's. The money
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: also sees to be a little bit indicating towards the over.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: The totals at nine and a half. I mean, I
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: wouldn't necessarily disagree. You got two bad bullpens. Lorenz And
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: is obviously a bad starter. McGreevy is not as good
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: as his numbers look at the very least, so those
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers don't look bad here. But there are more
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: indicators I think towards an over than an under there.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: But I still think maybe Saint Louis I.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: On a my minus one run line makes more sense
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: in that game, but the money does not agree with it,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: and I'm staying away from it.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna be right back. I'll finish off the rest
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: of these games. I'm not gonna have a game in
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: the in the I don't have a play in the
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: night game this time, so I'm not bookending it like
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: I did yesterday with a really early play in a
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: really late play. But I do have one more play
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: in one of the later afternoon games.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: Here. I'll be right back.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on own
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: seven run over the last two days. After tonight it
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: even know what to tell you above that. I just
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 3: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: anything like this, Man with the slump continuing.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: four that have not had a good season.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: slump continues.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: my bruins hat. Man, I don't know what is going
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: on with the bruins arch eye is that what it is?
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 3: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: Slump series slump discontinuous. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: Next game I will not be the game that I
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: have a play in, which is Baltimore and Texas. This
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: this is a weird pitching matchup in this one.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: It's it's hard to figure out for me. Now.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: You know, I tend to like unders in Texas, and
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: those have been happening again. The last three home games
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: here have all gone under the total, and in this
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: homestand all but one game has gone under the total,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: including both games in this series. Texas is on a
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: nice run right now, four wins in a row. It
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 3: does mean Baltimore's in a sweep avoiding spot here, But
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 3: Baltimore they sold to the trade deadline, So Texas is
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 3: the more motivated team team here generally, and Texas is
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 3: right there in the Al West right now.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: So Texas at.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: This point, I don't really think they're overlooking many teams,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: although I guess it's possible they overlook the Orioles after
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: they've already won this series. I don't know where that
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: much motivation is really gonna come from for Baltimore here.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: That's kind of the thing. Texas does not really have
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: a huge look ahead spot. They're playing Anaheim next, which
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 3: is I don't think that big of a deal. We
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: know Anahem's a dead team, so yeah, this matchup has motivation.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: That's you know, it probably does. The motivation goes towards
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: Texas in this game. Texas used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: Baltimore used two.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: Baltimore might have the better bullpen here, even though again
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: they were sellers at the trade deadline, and I think
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: they mostly kind of sold off some of their offense Baltimore, which,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 3: by the way, Ruchman had a good game yesterday for
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox Triple A team, the WU Socks, so
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: Rechman is probably coming up to the major league roster
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: sooner than later, possibly this week at some point, so
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: I'm excited about that.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: As a Red Sox fan.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: Anyway, back to this game, Baltimore is where are they
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 3: in bullpen here? They're eleventh in the bullpen department. Texas
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: has been way worse than I thought that they would be.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: Recently their nineteenth overall out of the bullpen, so I
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: don't love their bullpen. Baltimore's has been the somewhat better
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: one Baltimore. They've tailed off offensively here. They're twentieth right now,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: tied with Arizona and Cincinnati. Texas is sixteenth, so believe
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: it or not, Texas ranks out as the better offensive
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: team here right now. Baltimore's going with Cade Povich, who
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: I think has spent a lot of this year in
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: the miners. He's still pretty young, he's a minor. No,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: he's still pretty young. He's not really had his career
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: take off yet. He's been in the majors for a
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: couple of years now, never has really gotten a going though,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: So I don't know if he's actually ever gonna be
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: good or not.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: That's kind of what we have to try to figure
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: out year.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: He made most of his starts this year early in
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: the season, and then I think he was in the
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: minors or he was hurt, I'm not sure which. And
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: now at the trade deadline whatever, Baltimore traded away Dean
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: Creamer among other guys, and now Povich is in their
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: rotation again, and I think he's made one start recently.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: His overall numbers aren't too bad this year, three point
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 3: nine to one ERA, one point three to four, Whip
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: not exactly great, though, and he's been really bad on
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: the road seven point one to one roadie rail though
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: it's a small sample size.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: And here's the thing. He started out okay this season.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: His second start was really good against San Francisco, though
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: they're not a very good team. His two starts after
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: those first two were bad against the Yankees and Miami,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: both on the road.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: Then they either sent him to the miners or he
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: was hurt.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: And since he's come back, he's made one start and
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: it was really good. He shreded Anaheim in his most
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: recent start, which I know Anaheim is not a good
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: team and that wasn't home, but that might be an
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: indicator that maybe Povich is on the right track here
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 3: and gaining some sort of form here. I'm not going
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 3: to try to back him on the road though. And
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: Texas they have three hitters of fase and only six
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: at bats. It's a very small sample, but they've murdered
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 3: Povich in that small sample size six sixty seven ops,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 3: eighteen thirty three ops with a home run from Sieger
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: in there.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: But again it's such a small sample size.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't weigh that too heavily, but I don't really
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: trust Povich here. Texas is going with Kumar Rocker in
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: this one. He's got some mediocre numbers here four point
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: eighty RA, one point three to three WHIP. Generally, I
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: think he is better at home, although his ERA is
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: higher at four point twenty six.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: It's been the home run ball has really been the issue.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 3: I don't know what's going on with that, because home
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: runs don't usually happen to that much of a degree
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 3: in this Texas stadium. Here, his opponent batting average is
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: significantly better at home. Though I think he is generally
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: better at home. He wasn't good last time out against Houston.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: He gave him a lot of hits and he kind
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 3: of escaped, allowing way fewer runs than he showed up
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: in that once.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: That wasn't a good start. He was okay, I would
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: say in the month of July.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: He had one start in the where he got murdered
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 3: again by Houston. So it's almost like he pitches poorly
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 3: against Houston, and he's been doing fairly well against everybody
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 3: that isn't Houston recently, and Baltimore is not Houston. By
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 3: the way, I don't know if you knew that Rocker
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: his hit rate is okay. His walk rate is too high,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: so that's his issue. Rocker is a walker. He walks
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: too many guys. His strike out rate is mediocre numbers
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: against Baltimore.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: They haven't really seen him.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: Only En Carnacion's Strand has faced him, and he's over
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: to with a strikeouts A Rocker might have a little
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: bit of an unfamiliarity edge.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: Is Texas gonna pull off the sweet per I don't know.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 3: The money is indicating against it. Eighty one percent of
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: tickets on Texas, eighty eight percent of the cash on Baltimore.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: Public seems like they're all over Texas because Texas has
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 3: been good recently. Again, Texas, I think has the better
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 3: record over Baltimore, and Texas is the one team that
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: people probably know they're fighting to win their division right now,
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: whereas Baltimore has kind of packed it in for the season.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: But you know that means they're gonna pay more for
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: Texas because people know that they have something to play for.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: But when you're really just asking them to win the
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: game and the money line like this, you know it's
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 3: I think it's a little bit of a different scenario
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 3: if they're gonna be the only team that's motivated. I mean,
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: that is what they're trying to do. They're trying to
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 3: win the game. Although the price might still be a
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: little too high. It's hanging around minus one thirty right now.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: It dropped for minus one forty one, so the money
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: has come in on Baltimore here. The money's also pretty
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 3: strongly back in the under eight and a half year
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: or under eight.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not so sure about that.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 3: I mean, based on those matchup numbers, it's a very
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 3: small sample about it. I was kind of leaning towards
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: Texas again in that game, with the motivation, Plus I
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: think they have the kind of more established pitcher, even
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: though I don't really love Rocker, but I.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: Don't think i'd want to be on an under that one.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you that.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 3: Plus Polvich so far at least has been quite bad
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 3: on the road, and you could definitely make the argument
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 3: the Rockers is actually better at home than on the road,
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 3: so the home road splits might favorite Texas as well.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: If you want to exclude the Texas bullpen because they're
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: not really that good, you could take Texas in the
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 3: first five. You'll have to pay a little bit more
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 3: of a price for it, probably, but I think that's
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 3: not off the.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: Table as well.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: Texas first five makes some sense to me there. Next
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 3: game up is gonna be my play, which maybe people
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: could have guessed based on the way that I handicapped this.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: I told you it was another total, and of course
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: you know me. I'm an undertaker man for the most part.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 3: So this is an under. We're gonna take Detroit San
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: Francisco under seven and a half. I think it's at
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 3: a decent price here. We're getting the hook on the seven.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 3: My main concern here is the San Francisco bullpen. Of
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 3: course they're not a good bullpen, but I'm willing to
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: live with it because they have their grinder on the mountain,
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: Logan Webb, and he usually gets pretty deep in a game,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: so that could help save the bullpen a little bit.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: So I'm gonna do this rather than try to take
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: I did see an under four in the first five
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: at like minus one twenty five. You could do it
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 3: that way, but I'm gonna extend it to the full
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 3: game here. I think both starters might be able to
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 3: surpass five innings here. I don't mind the Detroit bullpen,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 3: and this is a picture friendly ballpark, and San Francisco again,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: I think their offense is overrated, and they traded some
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: guys at the trade deadline. This game's on ESPN Unlimited,
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: So both games I'm giving out are actually televised in
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: some way, which I don't do it that way. That's
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: just the way that I don't do it intentionally. That's
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 3: just the way that it works out. And maybe sometimes
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 3: the public reaction is kind of on. Maybe sometimes I'm
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: fading like an like a public overreaction in a game
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 3: like that is what I mean. Not so much in
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: this game though, But San Francisco did use four guys
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: yesterday out of the bullpen, which.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: I don't love.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: But they didn't really use their better relief pitchers on it,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: I guess, except for win maybe, And I'm not too
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: worried about that. Detroit, their bullpen I think is fairly
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 3: clean right now. They use two guys out of the bullpen,
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: and they're both kind of long relief guys, so their
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 3: bullpen should be good to go here. As far as
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 3: what happened in the game yesterday, whoops, I'm looking ahead here,
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 3: my mistake. I have the future schedule up because I
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 3: want to see who these teams are playing next. Job electrical.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: I don't know about electrifying. But he went five innings yesterday.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 3: He had a good start. Yesterday the Tigers won in
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: another shot out eight nothings.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: So Detroit is playing with motivation. Motivation, man, it's crazy.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 3: You know, they sold off one of the best pictures
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 3: in baseball and Detroit's like, nah, We're still trying to
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 3: make the playoffs.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: It's crazy, dude.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: Like I said yesterday, I think you could bet on
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: Detroit to make the playoffs and that might work out
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 3: for you because they could either win their division or
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 3: get a wild card. I think those are both still
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: in the mix there. Anyway, this is a split serious
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: so far, so both teams will probably show up for this.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: So though Detroit is gonna have them motivation because they're
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: trying to make the playoffs even though they were sellers
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: of the trade deadline, San Francisco were also sellers.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: And they're nowhere near the playoffs. So there's that to consider.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: Bullpen's yes, San Francisco's twenty fifth, but their era is
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 3: better at least than all these teams around them, except
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: for Pittsburgh's, so they're not.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: Quite that bad.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 3: Detroit's bullpen is decent. They're fourteenth and they have an
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 3: RA well below four, so I'm okay with backing their bullpen.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: San Francisco their offense is down sixteenth, again, tied with Texas.
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 3: They're not as good at home, so yeah, I don't
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: think they're that good of an offense.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: Detroit is better.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: They're ninth, But again, I think good pitching outweighs good hitting,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: and I think that's what we got here. I like
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 3: both starters here, which obviously is the case when I'm
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: playing the under, and I think at least one of them.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 3: Troy Melton, I think is still under the radar here.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: He's been quite good man for Detroit. He pitched last
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: year for them a bit too, and he's been good
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 3: like basically since he's been on the major league roster
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 3: this year. One one point five to eighty or a
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: point nine to one whip And while those numbers are
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 3: probably unsustainable, we don't need him to be elite in
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 3: this game, you know what I mean? We just need
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: him to be good and get us this under here.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 3: He's got a one point one to three Roadier race.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: He's been really good on the road. Uh, he's been
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 3: good recently as well, for the most part. His walk rate,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: I guess is a slight concern recently, but Detroit them
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: been good behind him as well. They've won his last
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 3: six starts, they've won nine of his last ten, and
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: he's allowed no more than touring runs in any start
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: going all the way back into June. He's only allowed
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: more than touring runs once all season, which was against
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 3: Minnesota in June.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: That was a home game for him.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: And he's allowed one or fewer in all but three
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 3: starts this entire season, and two of those happened really
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 3: early in the season. So yeah, he's been really good.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 3: He's got an extremely low hit rate, which it's interesting.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: He's not really a huge strikeout pitcher. His strikeout rate
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 3: is okay, his walk rate is actually not great, so
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 3: that's maybe the one issue with him is the wak
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: kind of a little bit questionable. But his hit rate
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: is ridiculously low. He's been really really difficult to hit,
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 3: which is interesting. And San Francisco has never faced him
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 3: before and they're not a very elite offense, Like I
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: don't think they're a good offense. Like I said, so,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 3: I think Melton has a decent match up here in
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 3: a pitcher friendly park. He's gonna be facing an offense
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 3: it has to figure him out on the fly, which
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 3: should be an extra advantage to him. And he's good
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: in general and even better on the road. So everything
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: lines up pretty well for me for Melton, and then
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 3: you know me, I'll back logan web again here for
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 3: the Giants, he's pretty good. He's also typically better at
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 3: home throughout his career. He's got a three point seven
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 3: four ERA one point one to one whip. This year,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: he's been a little bit worse at home, but it
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 3: hasn't been bad. His splits are not significant really here
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 3: three point eight eight in homer Ra that's still not bad.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 3: Nice start from him last time out in Texas. He's
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: been good for a while now. Like he had a
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 3: couple of bad starts early in July, but his last
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 3: four starts have all been reasonably good. One was, I
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 3: guess a little questionable against Anaheim, but he's back and form.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 3: To me, it looks like he's got a pretty low
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 3: hit rate here. He doesn't really walk a ton of guys,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 3: he doesn't strike out a ton of guys either, so
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 3: oh no, the advanced analytics guys. But Web, he is
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 3: what he is, Like, he's been around for a while
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 3: and he always has like pretty good numbers, so you know,
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: it's it's not a fluke like. I don't think he's
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 3: gonna have any sort of like major regression or anything
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 3: like that.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: We know what he is. We've seen him pitch multiple full.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: Seasons here and he's a good ground ball pitcher, so
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: he gets a lot of guys to hit it into
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 3: the ground. Detroit has seen him a bit forty nine
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: at bats and Webb has had the upper hand against him,
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 3: holding them to a two twenty four average, six seventy
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: seven ohps seven to three strike a walk ratio. So
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 3: these matchup numbers look like they favorite Web here as well.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: Will take the under in this one, and the money
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: looks like it agrees with me on this fifty seven
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 3: percent takets seventy eight percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: You can fight a seven and a half.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: If they get a pretty reasonable price out there right now,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be a little bit juiced. It might be
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 3: up to about minus one twenty right now, but I
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 3: think that's the way that I would do it. Yeah,
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 3: I mean seven and a half is better than seven. Obviously,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 3: that half run is fairly key. So I would pay
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 3: up to about minus one twenty something probably to get
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 3: the hook on that. And I know it cost us
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 3: yesterday with that loss, but still I think it's the
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 3: way to play that game.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: So I have two totals today. I don't have anything
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 3: in the rest of these games. Dodgers in Arizona. The
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 3: Dodgers finally got the win yesterday, and I think they
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: had to do it in extra innings. But now that
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers ended their losing streak, and I did say
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 3: I thought the under made sense in that game. Yes,
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 3: it was good pitching on both sides. Now that the
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 3: Dodgers finally ended their losing streak, that might give them
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 3: some new momentum moving forward. I think the Dodgers were
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 3: kind of just going on cruise control because they had
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 3: such a big lead in the division. I think they
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 3: were finally like, we need to win a game here, guys,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 3: like you cannot get swept by Arizona and let Arizona
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 3: gain three games.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: On you, you know.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: So the Dodgers at least were able to avoid that.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 3: As far as the bullpen usage, the Dodgers actually used.
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: Kind of too many guys.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 3: It did go into extra innings that they use six
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 3: guys out of the bullpen yesterday, which is not great.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 3: Arizona used three, so Arizona might set up a little
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 3: bit better out of the bullpen in this one.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: I don't like their bullpen really though.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: The rank seventh, but their era four point two to one,
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: that's not that good. Dodgers of thirteenth now, their era
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: four point six is more tolerable than Arizona's, but they're
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 3: less rested. I don't know if these bullpens to me,
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 3: I think they're both not really ranked that appropriately here
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 3: if you arranged it just by whip, although that's what
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 3: I do, because I think whip is still a better indicator.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: But I don't know.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: I don't really love either bullpen that much. Dodgers are
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 3: number one offensively, they obviously have the better offense here.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 3: Arizona's ranked twentieth, as I mentioned earlier, tied with the
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 3: Red Sox, I think, and Baltimore is that right? No,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 3: the Red Socks are way ahead of them now at
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: this point Baltimore and Cincinnati, the other Reds team, the
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: other red team, yeah, the other Communist team. No, Justin
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: Robleski has starting for the Dodgers here.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: He's had a good.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 3: Season, man, He's pretty much been able to sustain and
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: know those eras gone up a little bit to three
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: point three one. His width is still really good at
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 3: one point oh seven. He is a little bit worse
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: on the road though, three point six to four road race,
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: so he's more fadable on the road. He did get
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 3: beaten up last time out against Chicago, and it looks
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 3: like he wasn't that good against Seattle to start before that.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: But he struck out a lot of guys against Seattle
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 3: and didn't walk anybody, so that start wasn't as bad
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 3: as it looked. The one against Chicago was pretty bad though,
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: And I guess one big concern is he allowed eight
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: home runs in those last two starts.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: That's pretty bad.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: Although that might be a little bit fluky, and you know,
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: it might have been one of those wind blowing out
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 3: scenarios in regular I forget what that game was, Robleski.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know, man, if maybe making the
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 3: All Star Game kind of hurt him a little bit
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 3: of tho his first game after that, he was still good.
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to think about him at this point.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: He's he hasn't.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: Really reached his innings threshold yet. I wouldn't say he
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 3: hasn't thrown that many innings this year, although he's kind
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: of a young guy who hasn't really done this yet.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: Hasn't thrown that many innings yet. He's still got a
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: low hit rate, a low walk rate. His strikeout rate
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 3: isn't even really that bad. So the advanced analytics guys
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 3: don't like him, but his overall numbers to me don't
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 3: look too bad.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: Before those last two starts, he'd allowed eight.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 3: Home runs on the season before he allowed eight in
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 3: his last ten innings or whatever, so that does seem
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 3: a bit fluky to me. He's going up against Arizona,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 3: but Arizona has hit him well in thirty five at bats.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 3: They have a three fourteen average and seven to sixty
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 3: eight ohps against him five to three strike out walk ratio,
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 3: So maybe this is not the spot where Robleski is
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: actually going to turn it around. Arizona's going with Eduardo Rodriguez,
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 3: who I think is showing some size of regression as well.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 3: The advanced analytics guys don't like him because he doesn't
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 3: strike guys out at least certainly nowhere near the way
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: that he used to.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: But he's been effective for the most part.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: Two point seven to one era one point two to
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 3: four whip is not great though, kind of indicates again
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: the advanced analytics guys. I don't know what his did
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 3: era is right now on Baseball Savant or whatever, but
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: I know it's gonna be probably about a run higher
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 3: than it actually is. He's been a little bit worse
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 3: at home, kind of two point eight to eight Homer
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: Ray still not bad. He was very hittable in his
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 3: last start against San Diego, which is not a great
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 3: sign because that's not a good offense, and that was
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: at home, but he pitched well the two starts prior
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 3: to that. He had a bad outing coming out of
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 3: the All Star Break against Saint Louis, but he bounced
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: back after that, so I don't know if that San
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 3: Diego start that he just had a kind of a fluke.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 3: It seems like he actually pitches better against better offenses,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 3: and he was good at the.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: Dodgers right before the All Star break.
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 3: However, he's actually he has pitched well against the Dodgers
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 3: both times he's faced them this year. I think, or
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 3: know he's facing three times. Actually he's been good in
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 3: all three starts. But I think if you look.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: At his numbers, they're actually not good.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 3: Despite having three good starts against the Dodgers, I think
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 3: they're still not good.
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: But I'll look at that in a second. He's got
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: a reasonably low hit rate here.
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is really low though, like I said,
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 3: he doesn't strike guys out anymore. His walk rate is
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 3: kind of mediocre, I would say against the Dodgers, though,
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 3: despite pitching well against them all three times this year,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers have one hundred and eighty four at bats
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 3: against them, they still have a three thirty seven average
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 3: against them, nine eighty six ops forty to sixteen strike
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 3: a walk ratio, so they've had the upper hand against them.
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: I think this game is probably an over I mean,
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: I think you.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 3: Have two pitchers that the advanced analytics guys I'm gonna
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: agree with them on this in at least that these
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: guys are probably not as good as their eras make
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: them look.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'll say about that. So I think
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: this is an over game. The money doesn't agree with me.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: Eight fifty eight percent of tickets seventy two percent of
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 3: the cash on the under totals kind of high at
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: nine and yeah, I think both pitchers might give up
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 3: some runs here, man, and I don't love either bullpen,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: and they both had an extra inning game yesterday. See
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 3: I like the over in that game for the most part.
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 3: And the money is also backing Arizona. I guess the
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 3: thought is that maybe Dodgers with Robleski on the mount
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 3: at minus one forty is kind of too high of
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 3: a pre You kind of know you're never gonna get
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 3: value on the Dodgers. Eighty two percent of the tickets
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 3: and fifty five percent of the cash on the Dodgers,
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 3: although they've been on a skid recently, so maybe if
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers had been winning recently, that price would.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: Probably be a bit higher.
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 3: But yeah, the money is definitely indicating against a public
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 3: Dodger side there. All right, PC, what's up man? Thanks
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 3: for hanging out, Garrett, what's up? No, those are my
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 3: only baseball players. I'm giving out a WNBA play in
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: a second, as well, those are my only two baseball players. Though.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 3: You got it as long as you got the right
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 3: number on those although like I said, you probably have
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: to go over nine and a half in that over
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 3: that I gave out. You might be able to find
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 3: a nine. Still I was able to, but I don't know.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay at Seattle we got a no play on
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 3: this one. Yes said it because I didn't specify. I
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 3: kind of just was like, ah, fuck it, Like just
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 3: specify the starters here. Because Jack's not doing well on
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 3: the he had bad like roads or he had bad
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 3: home road splits towards the road, which Tampa as a
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 3: team actually does, so that was part of the handicap.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: And Jack's had bad numbers against Seattle. I don't know
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 3: what happened, but he didn't start in the game, so
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 3: I guess we lucked out and got a no play
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 3: on that one because Seattle lost the game.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: Again in a low scoring, close game.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 3: Now Seattle qualifies as one of these home teams trying
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 3: to avoid a sweep. I like Seattle again in this one, man,
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 3: it almost made the cut for me. And Tampa is
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 3: still nowhere near as good on the road as they
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 3: are at home. They've just pulled above five hundred on
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 3: the road. Here Tampa Bay, they take advantage of their
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 3: home stadium, man, because it's a rotting corpse of a
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 3: stadium pretty much that they just fixed after the hurricane
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 3: tore it to shreds. They're gonna move to a new
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 3: The trop is its arable stadium, dude. And sometimes road
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: teams don't know how to deal with like it's the
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 3: weird way that it plays sometimes with the way the
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 3: balls go off the roof of the dome and.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: Like all that other shit. So Tampa Bay is used
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: to it.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 3: So they do have a home edge because of that,
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 3: and they're not as good on the road as Seattle
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 3: tends to be better at home. Seattle is still fighting
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 3: for a playoff spot. Man, where's Tampa Bay? Like I
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 3: said yesterday, they're going to make the playoffs? Like they
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 3: can lose some games and easily still make the playoffs.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 3: It doesn't although they're trying to win the division.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: I get it.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 3: But whatever, man, I think Seattle is going to be
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 3: the way to look in this game. I like Seattle's
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 3: bullpen bet in the Tampa Bay still they used four
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 3: guys out of the bullpen yesterday, but Tampa used everybody.
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 3: Tampa used seven because again they went with a full
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: bullpen game yesterday, and I don't know what happened to Jacks,
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 3: but he didn't start, and he's not starting today either.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 3: It looks like so I don't know what happened to him.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is ranked second in bullpen Whip. They're a
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 3: good bullpen, I would say, but I don't think they're
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 3: this good. And Seattle is better than where they're ranked fifteenth.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 3: They have a better era than Tampa does. I think
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 3: Seattle's a bullpen is a little bit better. In my opinion,
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is the better offense. I'm not gonna question
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 3: that they're number ten, although I don't think they're quite
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 3: that good.
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: Seattle has not figured it out.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 3: They're twenty eighth offensively, but they do play in a
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 3: pitcher friend the ballparks that does take their offensive numbers
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 3: down a bit. Tampa looks like they're going with Ian
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 3: Seymour here, but I'm not really sure at this point
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 3: because they're undecided, so maybe it will be Jackson. If
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 3: it's Jacks, I'm not gonna go into it again. For
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: the sake of time. You can go see what I
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 3: talked about yesterday with Jackson, because I don't even know
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 3: if it'll be him.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: But if it is Jacks today, you.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: Can go see what his numbers are against Tampa yesterday.
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 3: But the things to know are he's not as good
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 3: on the road and his numbers against Tampa are not
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 3: that good. So if it is Jacks, I'm still gonna
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 3: lean towards Seattle here. If it is Ian Seymour here,
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 3: I still like Seattle here. Seymour is okay. I think
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 3: he might be better than JACKX, though, but he's spent a
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 3: lot of time coming out of the bullpen here, so
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 3: I don't know really what to think of his numbers,
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 3: Like pitching out of the bullpen does kind of help
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 3: Pitcher's numbers a bit. He's got a four point two
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 3: to seventy ARRA one point one to three whip is
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 3: pretty good, though he's also not good on the road though,
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 3: just like JACKX, he's got a five point two to
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 3: one that's worse than Jacks. So yeah, Seymour is not
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 3: as good on the road either. Tampa as a team
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 3: just isn't. Although Seymour's coming off a really nice start
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 3: in Colorado, in course fields, so that was good. His
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 3: last couple of road starts have actually been good. He
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 3: was struggling a bit before that. Some numbers are pretty
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 3: good with him though. He has a high strikeout rate,
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 3: and his walk rate's not too bad either, and his
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 3: hit rate is actually pretty good as well. So his numbers,
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 3: like his full season numbers across the board, do actually
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: look pretty good. But some of it is working out
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 3: of the bullpen, so keep that in mind. And just
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 3: like with Jacks, his numbers against Seattle are not that good.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 3: They have sixteen at bats. It's not a huge sample,
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 3: but most of their hitters have faced him at least
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 3: once three twelve average nine eighty four oh ps four
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 3: to three strike out walk ratio. Emerson Hancock is getting
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: the start for Seattle, So I think if we're gonna
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 3: play this game, I like Seattle in this game.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: The money's not agreeing with.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 3: Me, by the way, but I would play Seattle and
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 3: I would just play them. I would take Hancock must start,
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 3: but I wouldn't pick a Tampa. You can't even pick
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 3: a t I'm a starter right now because they don't
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 3: have one listed. So I think whether it's it's gonna
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 3: be probably either be Seymour or Jacks or an opener
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 3: in front of one of those guys. And regardless of
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 3: which one of those happens, I like Seattle here. Handcock
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 3: is a three point three to three ERA one point
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 3: oh seven whip. He's been better at home, which makes sense. Again,
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 3: it's a pitcher friendly ballpark here, three point oh eight
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 3: homy ra for him. He's been in pretty decent form
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 3: over the past month or so, so I'm not really
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 3: too concerned by him.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: His innings pitch count isn't really that high yet.
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 3: He's got a low hit rate, pretty low walk right here,
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 3: reasonable strikeout rate as well, so these are good numbers
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 3: from Hancock for the most part.
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: However, he's not good against Tampa Bay.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 3: They have thirteen of bats against him three eighty five
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 3: average eight to ninety ops, so he has struggled against
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay. And I've heard some advanced analytics guys saying
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 3: they don't really like Handcock, although his strikeout rates not
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: like egregiously low when he doesn't put that many guys
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 3: on base. So I have no idea why. I kind
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 3: of like Seattle here, but I think you could all
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 3: play the over in this game. Although it's a low total,
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 3: it's seven and a half, so oddsmakers are kind of
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 3: telling you they think it's gonna be a low scoring game,
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 3: and the overlooks kind of public seventy eight percent of tickets,
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 3: seventy nine percent.
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: Of the cash on them.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: I don't know if the public's really coming in on
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 3: and over in this game, though, because this has been
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 3: a very low scoring series. Both games have gone way
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 3: under in this series so far. I think this one
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 3: might go over though, based only what we just saw.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: Neither pitcher.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 3: Well, we know that Hancock's numbers are not good against Tampa,
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 3: but either starter that might be pitching the majority of
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 3: the game for Tampa Bay they don't match up well either,
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 3: so I think it over makes some sense. I do
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 3: also like Seattle in the game again. All right, Houston
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 3: and San Diego is the NBC Night game. It's not
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 3: a Peacock game this time. Apparently, it's just an NBC game,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 3: no more ESPN Sunday Nights Man. San Diego won yesterday
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 3: to even the series. Both teams have something to play for.
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 3: They're both fighting for a playoff spots here playoffs. The
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 3: pitching matchup in this game just looks ugly though, so
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 3: right away I looked at this and I was thinking
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 3: over and I think the numbers do probably support that.
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 3: So that's gonna be my lean in this game is
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 3: an over. Houston used two relief pitchers as today. Houston's
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 3: bullpen is pretty good at this point though after they
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 3: were awful at the beginning of the season, they've completely
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: turned it around. San Diego we know has a good
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 3: bullpendal that they did use Miller out of the bullpen
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 3: to save the game yesterday, but these are both pretty
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 3: good bullpens. San Diego's ninth, Houston is tenth. So yeah,
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 3: Houston's had a major turnaround out of the bullpen here.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 3: Houston's definitely the better offense. Their ranks sixth. San Diego
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 3: has been a little bit better recently, but they're at
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 3: twenty fourth and this is a pitcher friendly park here. However,
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 3: I still think the pitching is gonna be kind of
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 3: the downfall in this game. I think it's gonna be
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 3: an over. Christian Hobvier is pitching for Houston. I don't
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 3: think he's as bad as his numbers make him look,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 3: because he hasn't pitched that much of this season.
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: But I don't think he's great.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's been somewhat okay at some point during
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 3: his career. His overall numbers don't look too bad throughout
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 3: his career, but I don't know man recently. Over the
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 3: last couple of seasons, I'm not liking what I'm seeing.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 3: And this year's six point five nine yrra one point
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 3: six' eight whip that's not good at. All he's only
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 3: pitched at home so, FAR i, think, Right oh, no
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 3: he just has exactly the same era home and. Away
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 3: that's really. Weird he coincidentally actually has the same ray
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 3: home and. Away, yeah he's made more starts THAN i
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 3: thought so far this, year but he hasn't been. Good
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 3: his hit rate is, high his walk rate is too,
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 3: high his strike up rate is just. Mediocre there's not
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 3: a lot to like, here except that he did pitch
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 3: pretty well in his last two, outings but it was
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 3: Against anaheim In. TORONTO i, MEAN i don't know how
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 3: much to take away from. That those are not good,
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 3: offenses and those are teams that are.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: Just packing it.
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 3: In AND i Know San diego is not a good offense,
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 3: either but at least they're trying to win, here and
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 3: they have decent numbers Against javier in the past in
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 3: forty nine at bats two sixty five, average eight fifty six,
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 3: ops so they've hit him for some. Power they do
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 3: have three home runs in here fifteen to six strikeout walk,
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 3: ratio So JAVIER i don't think matches up particularly well.
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 3: Here San diego is going With Randy, vasquez WHO i.
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: Don't think he's.
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 3: Good four point one to nine e ra is, alright
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 3: but one point four to two whip not. Good he's
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 3: always walking too many, guys, dude and he was not
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 3: doing that at the beginning of this, season but throughout
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 3: his career so, far the walks him been a huge
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 3: problem for, him and that's happening again. NOW i think
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 3: he's actually probably been too hittable as well. Recently so,
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 3: yeah he's not pitching, well and he's not been good at,
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 3: home which is. Weird he's worse at, home even though
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 3: it's a pitcher friend the ballpark four point nine to
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 3: one home.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: THE ra and that might have been the case last year,
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: too so that's a little.
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 3: Strange he looks like he was good last time. Out
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 3: the last two appearances for, him he didn't allow any,
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 3: runs but he's not striking anybody, out so that's kind
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 3: of a red. Flag even though he had a good
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 3: start last time Against arizona for the most, part got
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 3: to win and held him off the. Board but, WALKING
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 3: i mean not walking anybody really, either but striking out
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 3: nobody is really not. Good his hit rate is too high. Here,
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 3: actually his walk rate's not as bad AS i. Thought
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 3: his hit rate is actually more concerning than his walk
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 3: rate at this, point which is. Weird usually the walks
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 3: are the big problem with, him but he also strikes out,
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 3: nobody so the advanced analytics guys hate. That that means
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 3: his strikeout walk ratio is really ugly because of, That
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 3: so that's not a good. Sign and Against houston he's not.
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 3: Great they have not a huge sample. Here sixteen at,
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 3: bats six hitters have face them two fifty average is pretty,
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 3: average but in eight to fifty seven ops four zero
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 3: strike out walk. Ratio but they've been able to hit
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 3: him for some extra base hits in. Here, YEAH i
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 3: don't like either pitcher. HERE i think the over is
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 3: the way to look at that. Game but the bullpens are.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 3: Good but if the starting pitching kind of sets the
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 3: tone in the game and starts pitching. Poorly you, KNOW
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 3: i think that lends itself towards an. Over so that's
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 3: the WAY i would look at. That when the money
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 3: seems like it agrees with, that seventy two percent of the,
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 3: tickets ninety five percent of the cash on the over
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 3: totals at eight and a.
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: Half that is HOW i would play. That IF i
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: was gonna play, IT i would.
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 3: Take it over sixty three percent of ticket seventy one
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash On San diego at a pretty
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 3: cheap price in the minus one twenty range, Here do
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 3: what you want with. THAT i GUESS i don't really
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 3: have a good feel for the side in that, game.
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 3: Though all, right and that's the last game, today, RIGHT
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 3: i think it. Is let me, see NO i wanted
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 3: to go To sunday or whatever Or. Saturday it still
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 3: Shows Sunday's, yeah that was the night, game right all? RIGHT,
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 3: WNBA i do have one play AND i have some
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 3: thoughts on a lot of THE wnba games here because
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 3: there are some interesting situations coming into play.
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: Here first game is twelve.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 3: Thirty eastern ON, abc so weird quick turnaround time after noon.
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: Game quick turnaround time For vegas because they played.
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 3: Yesterday they played in the, afternoon but still they had
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 3: a huge game yesterday Against, minnesota and now they have
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 3: to turn, around go From minnesota To New york and
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 3: play again with no days.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: Off that's a bad spot For, vegas.
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 3: Dude and they're Playing New york is one of their,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 3: rivals And vegas did just Beat New. York AND i
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 3: BELIEVE i Gave vegas out as a play in that or,
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 3: NO i don't THINK i, did, actually BUT i THINK
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 3: i leaned that. Way so it's been an interesting history
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 3: between these two. Teams they've had some pretty intense playoff
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 3: matchups against each other, recently And vegas lost the first
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 3: two games To New york this, year including The Commissioner's,
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 3: Cup but Then vegas was able to get some revenge
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 3: and Beat New york In vegas not too long. Ago
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 3: so now the revenge angle might actually be on The
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 3: New york, side And New york has rest here because
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 3: they didn't play. Yesterday so the spot is not great
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 3: For vegas having to play two big games in a,
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 3: row two days in a.
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: Row they weren't.
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 3: That close To minnesota yesterday though they lost by, eleven
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 3: and the game wasn't really that close down the, stretcher
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 3: it was still a huge game For, Vegas so that
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 3: has been looking Towards New york in this.
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: Game bad spot For vegas after they had to play.
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 3: YESTERDAY i don't think they're playing anybody that big, next
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 3: but they're playing really four big games in a, row
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 3: and all these games on the.
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: Road that's.
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 3: Difficult they're also playing three games in four, days which
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 3: is not something that usually happens in THE. Dustba so
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 3: it's not a good rest spot For vegas. Here three
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 3: games of four, days all against good. Teams they had
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 3: a big game Against. Indiana that was the game WHERE
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 3: i gave Out vegas and they won that game in
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 3: overtime back on A, thursday and they Beat atlanta before.
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 3: That so this is a difficult spot For, vegas, dude
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 3: lots of, travel lots of road.
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: Games the spot is obviously way easier For New.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 3: York they're just staying at, home and they're coming off
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 3: kind of a lackluster game at home Against seattle because
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 3: they'd Beaten seattle easily the game before, that SO i
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 3: think they just didn't give a crap and they just
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 3: whatever went through the motions Against seattle still beat. Them
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 3: So New york is most likely going to have their
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 3: focus here on this. Game their last, loss in, fact
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 3: was that game where they lost In, vegas so they're
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 3: gonna show up. Here SO i like The liberty in this.
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 3: Game the problem, IS i go AND i look at the,
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 3: number And i'm, like what the? Fuck The liberty are
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 3: ten and a half point favorite. Here they were going
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 3: to be a one and a half point. Favorite now
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 3: they're ten and a. Half why is? That, well it's
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 3: Because vegas is basically not playing anybody in this. Game
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 3: they're just throwing the. Game so ten and a half
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 3: you can't lay that. Number that's the. Thing, LIKE i
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 3: was looking Towards New york in this, game and if
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 3: it was one and a, HALF i would consider putting
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 3: it on my, card you. Know and the money is
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 3: coming in Towards New. York seventy two percent of the
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 3: tickets are On, vegas fifty eight percent of the coush
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 3: Of New. YORK i would not come in to try
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 3: to Play vegas, here but at this, NUMBER i don't
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 3: think you could lay this, number, dude even Though vegas
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 3: looks like their top three players are all just gonna
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 3: be rested in this. Game so that's how They're that's
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 3: How vegas, is, man It's Becky, hamond, Dude like she
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 3: rests their Uh she's Like Greg popovich kind of and
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 3: she was With San antonio in her playing.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: Career. Whatever she does the same. Thing she rests her.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 3: Players she tries to keep them rest and rest players
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 3: during different. Games AND i guess that's what they're doing.
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 3: HERE i guess they care a little bit less about this.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 3: Game IF i was gonna play this, GAME i would
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 3: still lay the points With New.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 1: York but it's so many. POINTS i just don't think
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: you could do.
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 3: It. Man the money is still indicating that. Way but you
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 3: can see Here wilson is not gonna play in this.
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 3: Game gray is not gonna play in this, game And
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 3: young is also not gonna play in this. Game so,
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 3: literally the best three players on the aces are all
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 3: sitting this game. Out they're all gonna be rested here
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 3: because of the back to. Back so now you know
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 3: WHAT i, say, though is a lot of times when
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 3: a team does, that the line over adjusts to it,
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 3: right like it's an. Overreaction, potentially the line is so
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 3: big On New york, now And New york might not
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 3: Take vegas as, seriously like, thinking, oh we get to
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 3: play their backups, now like that's gonna be, easier so
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 3: they might take their foot off the gas a.
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: Little, bit you know WHAT i.
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 3: Mean, HOWEVER i would counter that by, saying, Well New
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 3: york did just lose To vegas the last, time and
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 3: they had kind of a bad game last time out Against,
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 3: seattle SO i don't Think New york is gonna overlook them.
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 3: Here SO i still lean Towards New york laying the,
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 3: points BUT i can't do it at that. Price, yes,
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 3: sir next game up is going to be my actual,
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 3: play and it's an interesting. One we're gonna Take phoenix
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 3: plus one and a half here Against, washington and it
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 3: looks insane to be doing. This Although, washington by the,
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 3: way we, know as if you follow, me you KNOW
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 3: i talk about How washington's a defensive. Team they're much
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 3: better as an underdog than a Favor and even THOUGH
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 3: i know this is just a basically pick the winner price,
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 3: here but it's expected to be a low scoring. Game,
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 3: again it's a low, total which means the underdog might
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 3: be able to hang around a little.
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: Bit BUT i like the spot For.
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 3: Phoenix but, also if you just look at, this this
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 3: game is in the, afternoon by the, way at three,
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 3: Pm so just like, yesterday we have afternoon baseball AFTERNOON,
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 3: wnba and then one later game in baseball, here although
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 3: it's not a night game this.
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: Time you're gonna look at this.
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 3: Though the public's gonna look at, this and it's a
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 3: pick the winner price on, this it looks like you
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 3: might be able to almost get two and a.
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: Half, NOW i don't, know we'll see maybe a, two we'll.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: See i'll. Look but you're.
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 3: Gonna look at this and, think, Well washington's eighteen and
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 3: twelve and they're also pretty good at. Home phoenix is
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 3: not that good on the, road and they're twelve and
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 3: twenty one, overall and the price is like pick the,
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 3: winner why would anybody Play phoenix?
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: Here you know WHAT i?
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 3: Mean like the team with the way worse. Record, WELL
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 3: i think you know. Me the oddsmakers are telling you
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 3: something like this looks like a trap, Line like the
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 3: odds makers are fine with people coming in On washington
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 3: in this.
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: Game that's what that indicates to.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 3: Me it looks way too easy to Play, Washington, like
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 3: why is the team with the way better record laying
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 3: only one and a half points. Here i've been telling
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 3: you all season THAT i Think phoenix is not as
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 3: bad as the record. Looks they play in the more difficult,
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 3: conference which is The Western. Conference washington's in The east,
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 3: obviously And phoenix is better than what their overall record
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 3: looks because, remember they just Added Kelsey plum and she's
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 3: a really good. Player she's played a few games for them,
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 3: now she's one of their best. Players that was a
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 3: big pickup For. Phoenix so with, Her phoenix is better
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 3: than what they've been over the course of the seasons so.
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 3: Far and the odds makers are telling you that with this, line,
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 3: like they're telling you there's not a big difference between
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 3: these two teams despite what the records. Indicates so, yeah
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 3: it's one of those misleading lines THAT i like to
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 3: jump in on because it just looks, way, way way
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 3: too easy to Play. Washington it's, like what the fuck
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 3: is going on? Here but in addition to, that it's
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 3: not a good spot For. Washington they just Beat. Atlanta
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 3: that was a nice game for. Them they've actually they're
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 3: coming off a few big. Wins they're hot right. Now
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 3: they've won six games in a, row most of them
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 3: against good teams. Too this is a nice winning streak
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 3: For washington, here and they've won every game on the home.
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 3: Stand BUT i think they might let up in this one,
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 3: man and actually lose. One because they just Beat dallas,
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 3: twice they Beat. Atlanta those are big, wins Especially, Atlanta
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 3: Big Eastern, conference winning a, tough, physical defensive game against
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 3: another good, deepense and they have a huge game on.
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 3: Deck they gotta start a road. Trip they gotta go
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 3: To vegas and Play vegas. Twice those are big games
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 3: against The Returney Champs. Vegas they did just Play vegas
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 3: and beat them by. One BUT i think it's a
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 3: sandwich spot, man looking at all these games surrounding this
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 3: game Against. Phoenix this is clearly like the down spot
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 3: and the schedule and the game they might. Overlook so
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 3: it's a misleading. Line plus it's a good, situation and
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 3: it's even better Because phoenix just lost The connecticut so
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 3: who's gonna want to Take phoenix right? Now they're trying
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 3: to finish off a road trip, here so they're already
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 3: adjusted to The eastern time.
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 1: Zone so they're already here in The.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 3: East they won the first game on the road trip Against,
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 3: chicago and then they lost To, atlanta WHICH i, mean all, right,
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 3: whatever And atlanta's, good not expected to win that.
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: Game but then after that.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 3: They had a bad game Against connecticut last. Time that
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 3: is a hideous loss to one of the worst teams
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 3: in THE. Wnba maybe it was a little bit of
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 3: a sandwich spot or something like. That after a horrible
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 3: loss like, that and now one and two on the road,
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 3: trip last game of the road, trip you want to
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 3: pull even on the road, trip, MAN i think you're
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 3: gonna get focus out Of phoenix, here even though the
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 3: rest scenario is a little questionable because since the end Of,
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 3: July phoenix is now playing their fourth game And washington
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 3: will only be playing their third, GAME i, Think But
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 3: i'm not too concerned by, that and the recent rest
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 3: is basically about even both teams played On, Friday i'm
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 3: pretty sure, so AND i think they both also played On,
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 3: Wednesday So i'm not too concerned by.
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: THAT i like the, spot, YEAH i like.
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 3: It the misleading. Line the money is heavily agreeing with
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 3: me on. This fifty two percent of tickets On, washington
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 3: eighty percent of the cash On. Phoenix let's do. It
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 3: let's take The Phoenix mercury and hope we. Continue we've
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 3: we've been winning again in THE, wnba and some of
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 3: the Losses i've taken to be, bullshit but we're headed
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 3: towards another winning season in THE. Wnba there are not
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 3: a whole lot of games left on the schedule FOR,
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 3: wnba SO i think we're we're on a nice trajectory
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 3: in THE wnba to finish with a second straight winning.
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 3: Season there the only two Seasons i've done it. All,
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 3: right then we Have dallas And minnesota which is ON,
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 3: nbc And. Peacock you know What i'm gonna say, Already
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 3: Because minnesota had a huge win yesterday against the. A'ses
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 3: minnesota now has to turn around and play again right,
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 3: away although at least for, them they're staying at, home
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 3: so their spot isn't quite as bad As vegas as.
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 3: Is but they might be feeling pretty high on themselves
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 3: after they Beat vegas The Returney. Champs it was a
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 3: revenge game as, well AS i mentioned, yesterday because they
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 3: lost their only other game Against, vegas and they don't
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 3: many losses on the season. Either that was a huge
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 3: win From, minnesota and, now While minnesota is the better
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 3: team here Against, dallas especially, Defensively dallas has some deficiencies.
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 3: DEFENSIVELY i don't like the spot From. Minnesota obviously got
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 3: a back to. Back they're playing a third game in
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 3: four days as, well all at home at.
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: Least BUT i don't like.
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 3: It. MAN i would like it less if they Had
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 3: vegas again, next but they. Don't they do Play vegas
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 3: two games from, now though they start a road trip
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 3: In portland.
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: Next then they go To.
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 3: Vegas but either, WAY i don't like the quick turnaround
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 3: spot for them here coming off a huge. Game it
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 3: could be a letdown spot for them off the huge win,
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 3: yesterday And dallas is coming off a disgusting.
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: LOSS i mean it was To Golden.
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 3: State Golden state's a good, team but that was a
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 3: home game For. DALLAS i Liked Golden state in the
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 3: game only BECAUSE i Thought Golden.
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 1: State would win with their better.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 3: DEFENSE i didn't think they would win by almost twenty,
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 3: points but that's what.
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: Happened that was an ugly.
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 3: Loss dallas has lost four of the last five, games
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 3: which is not, good but two of them are against
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 3: washing who's also a good. Deepfense Golden state also, is
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 3: And atlanta also, is who they also. Lost, Seriously Now
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 3: minnesota also. Is i'm not gonna deny, that BUT i
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 3: Think dallas is gonna be focused on this. Game they
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 3: didn't play. Yesterday they've been losing a bunch of games.
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 3: Recently that last game was a blowout, Loss SO i
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 3: think they're going to be focused on this. One minnesota
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 3: may very well not, be and they're at a rest.
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 3: DISADVANTAGE i would Take, dallas but the money's not agreeing with.
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 3: Me the line actually dropped from seven and a half
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 3: to five and a half or, six so maybe somebody's.
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 3: Out i'm gonna have to look to see if Maybe
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 3: minnesota is resting somebody because they did play. Yesterday i'll
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 3: look in a. Second fifty two percent of the tickets
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 3: are On. DALLAS i don't see the public coming out
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 3: Of dallas, Here, like, Really minnesota is the best team
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 3: in the. League everybody knows, it and they've been hot.
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 3: Recently dallas is. Not SO i don't see any way
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 3: the public is actually On dallas. Here seventy two percent
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 3: of the cash On. Minnesota i'm not sure THAT i buy,
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 3: That and the fact that the line is down to
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 3: five and a half, though probably, indicates, well, no it
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 3: doesn't look like anybody's really resting on really either side,
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 3: Here So.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is just gonna play their.
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 3: Players it looks, like unfortunately it's not on that key
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 3: number seven, anymore seven and a. Half BUT i would
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 3: still need towards taking the points With dallas at five
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 3: and a, half and really it almost looks too easy
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 3: to lay the points With minnesota. Here but then, again
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 3: the oddsmakers are gonna dock you a little bit for
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 3: because of the rest, scenario you know WHAT i.
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: Mean like in the case With New, york.
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 3: And with With vegas and With, MINNESOTA i should say
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 3: those teams are gonna.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: The line's gonna move against.
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 3: Them the line's gonna be skewed against them in the
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 3: market more because of the lack of.
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 1: Rest like the oddsmakers take that into.
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 3: Account they know those teams don't have, rest so the
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 3: line is going to be more towards the side of
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 3: those opponents than it would be.
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: OTHERWISE i hope that makes.
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 3: Sense you, know the line's gonna be skewed to account
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 3: for the rest disadvantage that Both vegas And minnesota have.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 3: Here the last game Is Golden state AND la The
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 3: battle Of. California THOUGH, LA i think they packed it
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 3: in for the. Season, man this game's ON, espn so
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 3: maybe they might get up for. It Like LA's packed
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 3: it in for the. Season they got rid Of. Plumb
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 3: but this is a home game ON espn and it's
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 3: Against Golden, state so this is probably one of the
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 3: games that even though they packed it in for the,
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 3: season this is one game that they might get up FOR,
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 3: La so they might get up for. It, however the
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 3: spot is pretty bad for, them so that was the.
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 3: Thing LIKE i first looked at this AND i was
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 3: THINKING i might FADE la here because they're returning home
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 3: from a road trip where.
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 1: They went To, Portland chicago And.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 3: Minnesota they've been away for a, week and you, KNOW
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 3: i talk about this when a team returns home from
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 3: the road a lot of times they're.
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: Distracted they have to get back to home.
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 3: Life and it's worse because they Beat minnesota in their
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 3: last game On.
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: Thursday that was a huge.
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 3: Win they were sixteen and a half point underdogs and
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 3: they won At. Minnesota but Remember minnesota Was minnesota just
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 3: totally overlooked. THEM i Think minnesota just didn't even show
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 3: up Because minnesota.
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: Had that game surrounded by bigger.
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 3: GAMES i didn't Think minnesota was gonna lose out, right
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 3: BUT i did SAY i leaned TO la plus the points,
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 3: there which was obviously. Correct but NOW la could be
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 3: in a big letdown spot after, That so they're in
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 3: a double negative, here a return home spot plus a
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 3: major letdown. Spot but the thing is my concern with
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 3: fading them is they might get up for it still
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 3: because it's AN espn game again Against Golden, state not
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 3: the type of game they're necessarily going to Overlook Golden, state.
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 3: Though they're coming up that very satisfying win Against, dallas
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 3: so they're not really in a great spot here. Either
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 3: so both teams are kind of in negative, spots although
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 3: it is worse FOR. La Golden. State, YEAH i, mean
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 3: they're on a roll right. Now maybe they won't OVERLOOK la,
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 3: though because it is still A tv. Game they only
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 3: Play chicago, next which isn't really that big of a.
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 3: Deal possible let down off the big win Over dallas,
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 3: though the big blowout. Win but OVERALL i Leaned Golden
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 3: state here, overall, Though but they're laying six and a half,
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 3: here which is a bit of a price for. Sure
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 3: sixty eight percent of tickets seventy three percent cash on,
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 3: them SO i think the money is kind of agreeing with.
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 3: Me there not gonna be a play for. Me WHEN
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 3: i first saw the spot FOR, LA i was, like, oh,
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 3: MAN i want to fade them. Here but THEN i
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 3: dug into it a bit and you can see the
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 3: reasons Why i'm gonna stay off of that. GAME i
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 3: think there are some reasons to fade both teams, there
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 3: so maybe an over makes some sense. There the money
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 3: looks like it does agree with. That the total is pretty,
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 3: low and one's sixty nine IN la is not a good,
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 3: defense Although Golden state, is SO i don't. KNOW i
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 3: don't really, AGAIN i basically only do totals In Major League,
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 3: baseball though MAYBE i should expand my, repertoire BUT i
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 3: do mostly sides everywhere else. Anyway, YEAH i Like Golden
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 3: state and that one, generally But i'm on the game
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 3: that is the. Strongest BUT i think it is the strongest,
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 3: situation and the market reads seems to agree with. It
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 3: and plus it's like the trap line that's out. There
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 3: So phoenix is my play in THE wnba. Here that's
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 3: gonna do it in my plays for, today or over
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 3: nine in red S gnats in baseball though you might
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 3: have to play it at nine and a half, now
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 3: BUT i think the pitching is pretty bad in that.
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: GAME i think the pitching is good In detroit And San.
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 3: Francisco so we're gonna play the under in that one
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 3: under seven and a half and THEN Wnba phoenix plus
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 3: the one and a.
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 1: Half it looks it might be able to get a
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 1: two on.
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 3: It. Two it looks way too easy to, play you,
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 3: know to Play washington, there SO i think It's, washington. Right,
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 3: yeah you can play the money line on it too
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 3: if you. WANT i, mean If phoenix covers as a high,
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 3: likelihood they're gonna, win But i'd rather have the one
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 3: and a half in my pocket and then sprinkle put
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 3: like ten percent of it on the money line as,
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 3: well because if they, cover they're probably gonna. Win But
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 3: i'd rather have the one and a half points for
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 3: most of the, bets so if they at least lose by,
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 3: one you'll still cover and it's a decent price on.
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: It so that's How i'm doing. It that's gonna do.
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 3: It learn a tone On, twitter learn a tone On, instagram,
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 3: like subscribe to the channel here of, course hype it
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 3: up on, mobile whatever the hell that even, DOES i don't,
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 3: know leave good, replies you, know comment on, it spread it,
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 3: around tell everybody we're giving on winners on the. Show
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 3: as you can see with my, RECORD i can go
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 3: back and watch me tracking at. Myself everything's at least
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 3: documented here and it's on it's documented on an action
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 3: network as.
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: Well i'm also not a, liar so you, know it
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 1: is what it.
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 3: IS i might make a, mistake like there's it's possible
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 3: That i'm getting these numbers. SLIGHT i don't THINK i
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 3: am BECAUSE i updated every. Day it's possible That i've
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 3: made a mistake at some point and it's a little bit,
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 3: wrong but it's it is pretty much where it. IS
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 3: i think IT'S i think it is right. Though, Anyway
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 3: uh listen on, Audio, Apple, Spotify. Spreaker that all helps
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 3: me out as. Well covered In yuca is my ukulele YouTube.
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 3: Channel you can check that out on patreon dot, com
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 3: slash learn To tone and you can get some bonus
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 3: yuke stuff, there it's mostly just a Yuq spotify. Feed
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 3: i'm gonna try to AS i, Said i'm gonna try
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 3: to do some more, stuff BUT i gotta figure out
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 3: what to actually.
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 2: Do.
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 3: Uh this takes up a decent amount of my time,
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 3: too so And i'm still trying to find a way
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 3: to make even to make more income because it's not
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 3: much right. Now so, yeah support your, boy, man if
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 3: you like my, content you, know because at least you like,
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 3: yeah like like this is how LIKE i need money
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 3: to live basically that's how it. Is so still might
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 3: sell the. House we'll see if it's getting to BE
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 3: i thought it was gonna reach that point sooner than
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 3: than it, has but it might have to happen. Anyway what, Else,
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 3: Uh Loser cast Every tuesday. Night i'm definitely A loser
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 3: and The New York giants G spot. Podcast that's gonna do.
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 3: It let's have a Good. Saturday let's at least go
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 3: too and one. Today AS i always, say, peace.
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 2: If the doc starts, talking hand me the, phone that's,
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 2: somebody and so let somebody know you do not have
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 2: to lose this. Round lone hold, on hold on, nothingnight
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 2: not no hold, on hold on let me. Pull you
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 2: are that bad.
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 1: Luck by, time but it don't get the.
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 2: Crown Hold, on hold, on stay with me, now hold,
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 2: on hold, On
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 1: You're still here now, yeah