Latest / Simply Bitcoin / What Does Trump SELLING His Bitcoin Suggest About the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.... | EP 1511

Transcript

What Does Trump SELLING His Bitcoin Suggest About the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.... | EP 1511 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:03
  Donald Trump's media company was one of the largest Bitcoin
• 0:07
  holders in the world until they've quietly sold around half
• 0:11
  of their $1 billion Bitcoin empire.
• 0:15
  And they also last week recently withdrew their application for a
• 0:19
  Bitcoin ETF in America. Are they losing faith in
• 0:23
  Bitcoin? Did they make some wrong
• 0:25
  financial moves? Or is something else happening
• 0:28
  behind closed doors? And further, I think the big
• 0:31
  question in the context of all of this is what does all of this
• 0:35
  mean for the future of the strategic Bitcoin reserve?
• 0:38
  I mean, let's not forget Donald Trump has very famously said
• 0:43
  never sell your Bitcoin. But if you remember some of the
• 0:46
  clips around it, he didn't seem too convinced about it.
• 0:51
  So I'm going to start with that and then we'll cover the story.
• 0:55
  Fortunately, in recent years, the US government has foolishly
• 0:58
  sold 10s of thousands of additional Bitcoin that were
• 1:02
  worth billions and billions of dollars had they not sold them.
• 1:06
  But they did sell them, mostly during the Biden administration.
• 1:09
  And not a good, not a good thing to have done.
• 1:13
  From this day on, America will follow the rule that every
• 1:15
  Bitcoin knows very well. Never sell your Bitcoin.
• 1:19
  That's a little phrase that they have.
• 1:21
  I don't know if that's right or not.
• 1:22
  Who the hell knows, right? Who knows Who knows?
• 1:31
  But so far it's been right. And well, let's keep it that
• 1:34
  way. Oh man, it's so funny.
• 1:39
  I mean, we've all heard the the more famous one when he was on
• 1:43
  the Bitcoin conference stage 2024 where he did the never sell
• 1:47
  your Bitcoin. The crowd went insane and he
• 1:50
  doubled down on it like it was his idea.
• 1:53
  That's the clip that goes around more more often when in when
• 1:57
  we're talking about Trump and Bitcoin.
• 1:58
  But I think this one probably has a little more signal in the
• 2:01
  context of everything going on here.
• 2:03
  So I will cover the story. The sales are pretty big.
• 2:08
  Well, depending on what you're looking at, a lot of people have
• 2:12
  been saying they are sells. There is a little bit of nuance
• 2:14
  to this, but then we'll look into, you know, who actually
• 2:19
  runs the company, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
• 2:21
  So here is the headline going around Trump Media DJT moves to
• 2:26
  sell Bitcoin as losses reach $455,000,000.
• 2:30
  Trump Media Technology Group transferred 2650 Bitcoin roughly
• 2:34
  $205,000,000 to crypto.com, signaling a likely pending sale.
• 2:41
  So again, Trump Media and Technology Group, or DJT parent
• 2:46
  company The True Social Platform, has transferred
• 2:49
  another 2650 Bitcoin, again worth approximately
• 2:53
  $205,000,000, to crypto.com. The transfer, confirmed by On
• 2:58
  Chain data tracked by blockchain analytics firm Look on Chain,
• 3:02
  occurred in two transactions between roughly 1:22 AM and 2:22
• 3:07
  AM on May 22nd of last week, originating from wallets labeled
• 3:12
  as Trump media accounts by Arkham Intelligence.
• 3:14
  The company as of now has yet to issue any official statement
• 3:17
  confirming or denying the intent behind the move.
• 3:20
  But we have seen them move some coin in the past to do various
• 3:25
  things. Of course, to recap their
• 3:27
  original buys, they bought about 11.5000 Bitcoin for
• 3:32
  approximately $1.37 billion at an average price of $118,000 per
• 3:38
  Bitcoin. So obviously they have huge
• 3:41
  unrealized losses on this. And so that could be one of the
• 3:46
  reasons I'll, I'll dive into it a little more.
• 3:48
  But with Bitcoin trading around $77,000 at the time of the
• 3:51
  transfer, well below that cost basis, the company is now
• 3:55
  estimated to be sitting on roughly $455,000,000 in
• 3:58
  unrealized losses. Following the transaction, Trump
• 4:02
  Media's visible on chain holding stand at an estimated 6889 to
• 4:07
  roughly 608, 6892 Bitcoin valued at approximately $533 million at
• 4:15
  current prices. So obviously their Bitcoin stack
• 4:18
  is pretty much cut in half at this point.
• 4:22
  And then of course, the price draw down means that they
• 4:26
  obviously are underwater, hugely underwater from most intents and
• 4:31
  purposes. Now this is where that little
• 4:35
  sentence of we have no official announcement of what they're
• 4:38
  doing with that Bitcoin, but we have seen them move some Bitcoin
• 4:43
  and not necessarily sell that Bitcoin.
• 4:45
  Though the last time this happened, there was a lot of
• 4:48
  attention, there was a lot of commotion around what they're
• 4:50
  doing. And you can see here that the
• 4:53
  last time four months ago, Trump Media shifted around 2000
• 4:56
  Bitcoin roughly at about $175 million.
• 5:00
  And the company later characterized that as a
• 5:04
  collateral movement. So this is where it starts to
• 5:08
  get a little interesting, obviously.
• 5:11
  Are they re collateralizing? Are they moving that Bitcoin to
• 5:13
  do various things or is it basically what the corporate
• 5:18
  press is signaling that it is? It's like they have huge
• 5:21
  unrealized losses. Their Bitcoin play was a
• 5:24
  mistake. That's been the general kind of
• 5:27
  view from the corporate press. Now obviously you got to take
• 5:31
  that with a grain of salt. Everything that comes out of the
• 5:34
  media, corporate press, traditional media in regards to
• 5:38
  Bitcoin and the Trump, well, rather in regards to Trump in
• 5:40
  general, is that he constantly is making mistakes.
• 5:44
  That is basically the prevailing thinking right now.
• 5:47
  It's like, look, they have almost half a billion dollars of
• 5:50
  unrealized losses. They basically bought the top
• 5:53
  and now they're selling the bottom.
• 5:55
  Like, look how dumb they are. That could be what's going on.
• 5:59
  I don't really think that that's the case.
• 6:02
  I think with what we know and what they've done, I think they
• 6:07
  might be using that Bitcoin to collateralize again, that's
• 6:11
  probably the best guess we have here.
• 6:14
  One of the first when I first saw this, my initial guess was
• 6:17
  like maybe maybe they're doing some kind of a, you know, tax
• 6:21
  loss harvesting right now and maybe they'll, you know, re
• 6:25
  enter the market or what have you.
• 6:27
  But that story in and of itself would probably not be the like
• 6:32
  that big of a story. It's just like, OK, yeah, you
• 6:35
  know, you bought the top, you sell the bottom.
• 6:37
  Yeah, you made, maybe you got a little over your skis here.
• 6:40
  Maybe, you know, whatever various different reasons you
• 6:43
  have, maybe you're just like, yeah, we we gotta, you know,
• 6:49
  kind of balance out our our balance sheet a little better
• 6:52
  here. I think those are all very
• 6:54
  viable reasons. I think all those make sense to
• 6:57
  me. But basically on the same week,
• 7:01
  we also saw them withdraw their ETF.
• 7:03
  If you remember, Trump Media issued a Bitcoin ETF and on the
• 7:08
  same week we saw them pull it. Now there's been a lot of
• 7:12
  speculations on why they might pull it.
• 7:14
  Obviously, if you are pessimistic or cynical about
• 7:18
  Bitcoin, then you're probably thinking like, oh, they realize
• 7:22
  it's a mistake, they got to pull it.
• 7:24
  They're they're not that serious about Bitcoin.
• 7:27
  I guess that could be a a reasonable explanation for
• 7:31
  what's going on. The more I don't know if I want
• 7:34
  to call it tinfoil hat take on what it was.
• 7:37
  The best kind of take that I heard of this was it seems like
• 7:41
  they may have pulled their ETF filing to essentially make way
• 7:45
  for various other products. The digital credit kind of take
• 7:50
  off of stretch of of strive or sat up the other ETFs being
• 7:55
  launched though from just my basic understanding of who Trump
• 8:00
  is as a person and again, I will explain kind of the ownership
• 8:05
  and the leadership of Trump media.
• 8:06
  That doesn't really make that much sense to me that they pull
• 8:09
  their ETF because they're trying to make room for other products
• 8:13
  in the market. I'm like, that doesn't sound
• 8:15
  like anything Trump would do. He wants to win.
• 8:19
  He wants his products to win. So I'm like, yeah, I don't know.
• 8:22
  It does make you think for a little bit, You know, there's a
• 8:26
  thought in the back of your head thinking, yeah, maybe maybe they
• 8:31
  are getting a lot of heat. Maybe there is a lot of
• 8:33
  financial pain on their company. And that's kind of where you
• 8:36
  start to see coming from Yahoo Finance.
• 8:38
  Again, it's the corporate press, so you gotta take it with a
• 8:41
  grain of salt. But here is the take from Yahoo
• 8:45
  Finance on what is going on over there.
• 8:48
  So the potential sale of it's Bitcoin holdings again comes
• 8:51
  days after Trump Media withdrew it's spot Bitcoin ETF.
• 8:55
  The sale also comes amid financial pressures at the
• 8:58
  company, which of course recently reported the first
• 9:01
  quarter net loss of $405.9 million on only $871,200 US in
• 9:09
  revenue. Analysts have said that the
• 9:11
  withdrawal of the Bitcoin ETF application appears they have
• 9:13
  been driven by less by regulatory concerns and more by
• 9:17
  the deteriorating finances at Trump Media.
• 9:20
  Now, that's why the withdrawal is so interesting in the 1st
• 9:24
  place. Remember the last week we saw
• 9:28
  the Clarity Act go through the Senate Banking markup?
• 9:32
  There's been a lot of talk about, oh, we're getting
• 9:34
  regulatory clarity in the states.
• 9:36
  You know, things are gonna finally get cleared, all the red
• 9:38
  tape's gonna get cut. And you would expect that maybe,
• 9:42
  you know, a president majority owned company being extremely
• 9:46
  bullish in Bitcoin would continue to go forward with
• 9:49
  their ETF. Now, obviously, we are not Privy
• 9:52
  to any behind the scenes conversations here.
• 9:54
  We don't really know what they're thinking.
• 9:56
  Could it be the unrealized, you know, losses?
• 10:00
  Could it be some kind of tax loss harvesting?
• 10:03
  Could it be they have lost faith?
• 10:04
  Could it just be overall they have to rebalance their their
• 10:08
  finances or as probably the more bullish and I think less likely
• 10:13
  view is that they're moving, you know, they're making room for
• 10:16
  other Bitcoin products. I don't know, I think the
• 10:20
  Occam's razor view of this, you know, the easiest answer to
• 10:23
  explain this could potentially be that they are sitting on a
• 10:28
  lot of losses that they are potentially in, you know, some
• 10:32
  kind of financial strain right now.
• 10:35
  Now, before I get into what does this mean, at least for me, or
• 10:41
  maybe the different perspectives of what this means for the
• 10:44
  strategic Bitcoin reserve, I think it's interesting to look
• 10:48
  into who actually runs the Trump Media Group.
• 10:50
  Obviously it has his name. So in that context, almost
• 10:55
  everyone thinks it's like, you know, either Trump Junior, you
• 10:58
  Trump himself or his kids that are actively running this.
• 11:02
  But Trump is no longer the chairman of Trump Media Group.
• 11:06
  He is the majority owner of Trump Media, but he isn't
• 11:10
  actively running the day-to-day here.
• 11:13
  So with that in mind, with someone else heading his
• 11:18
  company, yes, Trump is the majority owner of the company,
• 11:22
  then you got to start thinking more in context of how corporate
• 11:28
  stakeholders would view this. And I think maybe that's where
• 11:32
  we can get our signal on what the Trump Media Group is
• 11:35
  actually doing with their Bitcoin.
• 11:36
  Now, first, before I keep going, I do find the irony of kind of
• 11:41
  pocket watching the Trump Media Group, that that's not lost on
• 11:45
  me, that's definitely in the back of my mind throughout this
• 11:47
  whole conversation is like, well, look, does it really
• 11:50
  matter what Trump's company does with Bitcoin?
• 11:53
  And I think if Trump wasn't the president of the United States,
• 11:58
  if Trump wasn't going out on the public stage and saying we're
• 12:03
  going to be the Bitcoin superpower of the world.
• 12:05
  As we covered last week, he signed another executive order
• 12:08
  basically trying to force the Fed to allow crypto companies,
• 12:13
  AI technology companies to have master accounts at the Fed,
• 12:16
  basically be able to settle money quickly through the Fed.
• 12:19
  Then it probably wouldn't matter what 1 billionaire does with his
• 12:24
  company and his holdings on Bitcoin.
• 12:28
  That's probably what you would be saying if he wasn't the
• 12:31
  president and he wasn't pushing for a strategic Bitcoin reserve,
• 12:34
  or at least publicly pushing for a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• 12:37
  You'd be like, yeah, who cares? But in the context of everything
• 12:41
  that we're seeing, it does make you wonder.
• 12:43
  And also, I don't know if you guys heard the rumors, but we're
• 12:47
  still a little unsure of what's going on in the war in the
• 12:52
  Middle East. On Friday, it seemed like oh,
• 12:55
  there was a resolution, the peace deal is finally in.
• 12:58
  Then the markets closed and they started to fall apart.
• 13:03
  Also, I don't know if you guys saw, but there was some gunshots
• 13:06
  at the White House this weekend. So the timeline that I saw is
• 13:10
  the White House basically announces, oh, peace deal
• 13:14
  eminent. 2 hours later, there's like an assassination attempt at
• 13:18
  the White House. So I mean, that's how you can
• 13:21
  frame it. There was gunshots at the White
• 13:22
  House. And then shortly after, we start
• 13:26
  to see the rumors trickling in, the speculation trickling in
• 13:31
  that Iran's like, yeah, there there is no peace deals going on
• 13:34
  right now like this. This isn't happening.
• 13:36
  So again, this could all be fog of war.
• 13:40
  So in that context, yeah, maybe Trump has, you know, a lot of
• 13:44
  other things on the forefront of his mind.
• 13:46
  But this is a Bitcoin show. And as we've been saying for the
• 13:50
  last couple of weeks, we haven't really heard too much about the
• 13:53
  strategic Bitcoin reserve, even though Nick Begich just
• 13:57
  basically reissued the Bitcoin Act under the American
• 14:04
  Remodernization Financial Act. I, I keep, I keep messing that
• 14:09
  up. Arma Bitcoin.
• 14:11
  It is the American Reserve Modernization Act, sorry, where
• 14:17
  he's saying basically the Bitcoin act all over again, that
• 14:20
  if we want to maintain our position, we need to acquire a
• 14:23
  million Bitcoin over five years. Now, one of the things that I
• 14:26
  did miss over Friday when I was covering this was there is a
• 14:31
  little bit of a tidbit, maybe a little wrinkle on that Bitcoin
• 14:34
  act where Nick Begich was basically saying like we can't
• 14:37
  lose out on this. And the way that we could get to
• 14:41
  1,000,000 Bitcoin a lot quicker without spending taxpayer
• 14:46
  dollars is if we were able to seize Iran's holdings.
• 14:50
  Now the interesting part about all that is of course the
• 14:54
  context that we found out the end of last week that Iran holds
• 14:58
  about $7.7 billion in Bitcoin, or over 100,000 coins.
• 15:03
  Nick Begich basically on the very same day that we found,
• 15:05
  found this out, it's like, look, we should just take their
• 15:08
  Bitcoin reserves, bring it to America, not sell it.
• 15:12
  And now we have boosted our Bitcoin reserves by for all
• 15:17
  intents and purposes, stealing Iran's Bitcoin.
• 15:21
  So since we haven't heard too much on the strategic Bitcoin
• 15:26
  Reserve, it does make you wonder what exactly is going on though
• 15:32
  in the same, in the same vein, we did hear Patrick Willis or
• 15:35
  sorry Patrick Witt say that we're going to get a huge
• 15:39
  strategic Bitcoin reserve, a breakthrough strategic Bitcoin
• 15:42
  Reserve soon. So we got an announcement of an
• 15:44
  announcement. So from what we heard from
• 15:47
  Patrick Witt, they haven't stopped on the strategic Bitcoin
• 15:50
  Reserve in the back end, but from one of the Trump owned
• 15:55
  companies, if they aren't re collateralizing that Bitcoin and
• 16:00
  they are actively selling that Bitcoin, basically doing, you
• 16:04
  know, the worst trade ever, you buy the top and you sell the
• 16:07
  bottom 40% off. It's like you're just better off
• 16:11
  not buying Bitcoin at that point.
• 16:12
  But anyways, what is my view of where the strategic Bitcoin
• 16:17
  Reserve currently is? Now, obviously we have the
• 16:20
  executive order and an executive order is only as good as the
• 16:24
  president that's in the White House.
• 16:26
  So as of now, it's still, we still have 1, you know, we still
• 16:30
  have the, we're not going to sell any of the Bitcoin that the
• 16:33
  US has. But that's not, that's not what
• 16:37
  anyone when, when everyone thinks about the strategic
• 16:39
  Bitcoin reserve, it's not about them just not selling Bitcoin.
• 16:44
  It's about them continuously acquiring Bitcoin.
• 16:47
  That's where everyone kind of gets frothy about the idea
• 16:51
  because then the game theory happens.
• 16:53
  If we start buying Bitcoin, then everyone else has to start
• 16:59
  buying Bitcoin. And if everyone is buying
• 17:01
  Bitcoin, then you would suppose that number would go up.
• 17:06
  That's probably why everyone even talks about this in the 1st
• 17:09
  place is like nation state, FOMO is coming.
• 17:13
  It does remind me of the past when we used to do the
• 17:16
  institutions are here, they're going to buy up all the Bitcoin
• 17:19
  numbers going to go up so high. People are going to fully start
• 17:22
  to understand what scarcity is. You're not going to be able to
• 17:25
  get that much Bitcoin because the institutions are going to
• 17:27
  swoop in and buy Bitcoin. And how long did that take?
• 17:30
  It took years for that process to get there.
• 17:33
  And we are finally there. And still the amount of Bitcoin
• 17:37
  being bought hasn't really moved the price.
• 17:41
  In fact, you could probably argue that they're trading
• 17:45
  against the price so that they can acquire Bitcoin.
• 17:48
  That's kind of my my view of where we currently are right
• 17:51
  now. So anyways, I'm rambling.
• 17:55
  Where is the strategic Bitcoin reserve currently?
• 17:58
  The facts of the matter is yes, we have one, though again, if
• 18:02
  you listen to what Nick Begich said when he reintroduced the
• 18:05
  America, sorry, what is it again?
• 18:09
  American Reserve Modernization Act.
• 18:12
  I was seeing some of the clips and it was pretty interesting in
• 18:15
  the clips because he said something on the lines of, you
• 18:18
  know, we're going to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• 18:23
  And when you hear that, you're like, wait, I thought we already
• 18:26
  had a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Like what do you mean we're
• 18:29
  going to finally create one? It's like we didn't we already
• 18:33
  have 1. Isn't that what?
• 18:35
  Isn't that what the last, you know, 18 months has been all
• 18:38
  about that? We already have one and you guys
• 18:40
  are working behind the scenes to ensure that not only you don't
• 18:44
  sell Bitcoin, but potentially acquire more Bitcoin on this,
• 18:49
  you know, neutral budget neutral form of buying Bitcoin.
• 18:54
  And then he just reintroduced a Bitcoin act under a new name.
• 18:57
  And it's like, yeah, we're going to create a strategic Bitcoin
• 18:59
  reserve. Be like, I'm, I'm getting mixed
• 19:02
  signals here. But again, the facts of it, or
• 19:05
  at least from everything we know, we have a strategic
• 19:08
  Bitcoin reserve. We don't know how much Bitcoin
• 19:11
  we actually have. We allegedly aren't selling any
• 19:14
  Bitcoin, though there has been a couple of news stories coming
• 19:18
  out of the US Marshals where Bitcoin has been hacked and
• 19:22
  potentially some has been sold. And even in that clip that we
• 19:26
  played of Trump in the beginning of this, again, since we don't
• 19:29
  know how much Bitcoin is audited, we don't know how much
• 19:33
  Bitcoin was sold by the Biden administration before Trump came
• 19:36
  in. But allegedly it's a lot has
• 19:38
  been sold. So it does, it is starting to
• 19:41
  feel a bit fugazi. It is starting to feel like a
• 19:44
  lot of hot air surrounding the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• 19:48
  And as I've been saying, this does would make me very cynical
• 19:55
  about the strategic Bitcoin Reserve in general.
• 19:57
  But politics and Bitcoin at large, it seems like there's
• 20:03
  just been a lot of talk. Nothing's really happening.
• 20:06
  Probably nothing is going to happen.
• 20:09
  And yet. We keep telegraphing, and by we,
• 20:13
  of course, I mean America and the Trump administration that
• 20:16
  yes, this Bitcoin thing is serious.
• 20:17
  We're going to acquire more, you know, we are the Bitcoin
• 20:20
  superpower of the world. We're going to get the best laws
• 20:23
  in the US and we're going to track capital, Bitcoin capital
• 20:26
  entrepreneurs back on our shores.
• 20:29
  And nothing's happened. Now, you could say the classic
• 20:36
  trope, or maybe at the end this point, the classic cope, that
• 20:40
  government moves very slowly, that things are working behind
• 20:43
  the scene, that the wheels of justice, the wheels of liberty
• 20:47
  take a long time to finally get going.
• 20:49
  But once they do something, as Patrick Witt said, you know,
• 20:53
  huge breakthrough, a milestone will happen.
• 20:59
  Maybe I'm just so burnt out and cynical from politics that I'm
• 21:02
  like, I, I'm really starting to feel like nothing is going to
• 21:06
  to, you know, come of this, It's just it's going to be a huge
• 21:09
  nothing burger. You know, I know Trump has the
• 21:12
  whole Taco thing. Trump always chickens out.
• 21:14
  Now. I wouldn't say this is a
• 21:16
  chickening, chickening out moment, but it does seem to be
• 21:21
  as of now. And things can change, obviously
• 21:24
  with with the new information. And my take is definitely based
• 21:30
  on the idea that we don't have much news at all coming out of
• 21:34
  this. We've been speculating on it,
• 21:35
  but it does seem like the strategic Bitcoin reserve is a
• 21:41
  campaign promise that we probably won't hear too much
• 21:44
  from that nothing will really come up this.
• 21:47
  And again, that is all based on the assumption that we really
• 21:52
  don't know what's going to happen in the midterms.
• 21:54
  If Trump or rather the Republican Party doesn't win the
• 21:59
  midterms and they lose out in the midterms and everything I
• 22:03
  think is out the window, we're going to see a drastically
• 22:06
  different end of the Trump administration versus the 1st
• 22:10
  2:00. You could say that the first
• 22:12
  two, they've been trying and then, you know, they've gotten
• 22:15
  opposition. And so they haven't been able to
• 22:17
  do what they wanted to do. Well, if they lose the midterms,
• 22:20
  then everything is going to get derailed and they're not going
• 22:23
  to be able to do anything. Again, I'm not the only one
• 22:27
  that's been saying this, or rather maybe feeling this.
• 22:31
  Senator Lummus herself has been saying this.
• 22:33
  If this doesn't get passed soon. And we got some new updates on
• 22:38
  where the Clarity Act stands. But again, what Senator Lummus
• 22:40
  said, if this doesn't get passed this year or like you know, by
• 22:44
  July, then it's probably not going to get passed till 2030.
• 22:53
  So then it it, it's literally been political rhetoric
• 22:57
  throughout this whole time. And from my perspective, it is a
• 23:03
  missed opportunity. Obviously I'm a bitcoiner.
• 23:05
  I live in America. You guys could say whatever you
• 23:09
  want if you're more anti American.
• 23:11
  But if you come out and say you're going to be the Bitcoin
• 23:14
  superpower for the world and you do not actually do anything in
• 23:17
  Bitcoin except for maybe a lot of hot air and rhetoric, you're
• 23:23
  you're giving up the lead. You're literally telegraphing to
• 23:25
  the rest of the world that they should get in the Bitcoin.
• 23:27
  And if they actually get into Bitcoin and we don't have our
• 23:30
  shit together, what are we doing here?
• 23:33
  What is going on here? Seems like a whole lot of
• 23:36
  nothing. And you guys could say, all
• 23:41
  right, finally, Opti's come to the point where he has
• 23:45
  completely lost faith in politics and politicians
• 23:50
  embracing Bitcoin. To be clear, I have been
• 23:53
  skeptical throughout the whole process.
• 23:55
  But yes, I am starting to get to that point where I am going to
• 24:00
  be eating my words most likely. So I am, I don't want to say
• 24:04
  hopeful. I think hopeful is a little bit
• 24:07
  of a stretch. I think I would like to see us
• 24:12
  actively get some favorable regulation, some good laws in
• 24:17
  the US around Bitcoin. Obviously, I'm not the biggest
• 24:20
  fan of regulation. I'm probably more of a like,
• 24:23
  let's cut all the regulations kind of person.
• 24:25
  I'm I'm a little more on the free market side of all of this,
• 24:29
  but I would love to see us actually do something in regards
• 24:34
  to Bitcoin. I want to see favorable laws
• 24:36
  here because I want to live in America.
• 24:40
  Yes, maybe, you know, the American empire is crumbling
• 24:46
  potentially where we are. But I don't want to, as a big
• 24:50
  corner, have to get up and flee if the Democrats get in in 2028
• 24:57
  and they come after us. I want us to have laws set in
• 25:00
  place so that we, as big corners, feel comfortable here.
• 25:04
  Now, I know a lot of people always say the same thing.
• 25:07
  It's like, oh, you know, Nico and Appia become bootlickers and
• 25:12
  I'm like, look where we currently stand in the world.
• 25:15
  I would much prefer the guys with guns to be pro Bitcoin
• 25:19
  versus the guys with guns to be actively fighting Bitcoin.
• 25:24
  Maybe that's me being lazy, maybe that's me being
• 25:27
  comfortable, but in the world that we live in, politics does
• 25:32
  have effects on our lives. And I would much prefer for the
• 25:37
  guys with guns, for the guys with the monopoly on violence,
• 25:41
  for the authority figures to basically leave us alone.
• 25:46
  I would love for us to go full hardcore Bitcoin like El
• 25:49
  Salvador and Naibu Kelly. But that's probably a little bit
• 25:53
  too much of A stretch considering that the US is the
• 25:55
  world reserve currency. And the doctrine, well, more of
• 26:00
  the unofficial official doctrine coming out of the Trump
• 26:03
  administration and Scott Besson of the Treasury is we want to
• 26:07
  protect the dollar. And we have brought up this
• 26:10
  conversation in the past of what does a world look like, or
• 26:15
  rather, what does Bitcoin look like in a world where the US
• 26:21
  government is actively protecting the dollar, what does
• 26:25
  that world look like? What does the Bitcoin price look
• 26:27
  like? What does the adoption levels of
• 26:29
  Bitcoin look like? And it does seem like even
• 26:33
  though we are seeing a lot of semi decent rhetoric around
• 26:37
  Bitcoin, they are actively protecting the dollar.
• 26:41
  And I know a lot of people have this conversation that look, the
• 26:45
  dollar and Bitcoin aren't necessarily fighting against
• 26:48
  each other, that they might be working a little more in
• 26:52
  symbiotic relationship. In a symbiotic relationship, all
• 26:55
  of the Bitcoin dollar thesis the US can't blatantly embrace
• 27:04
  Bitcoin if they blatantly sorry wow, Monday morning can't speak.
• 27:10
  If the US blatantly embraces Bitcoin, it is conceding the
• 27:16
  defeat of the dollar, in my opinion.
• 27:21
  They can't actively come out there and be like, yeah, we, we
• 27:24
  love Bitcoin. And then all of us Bitcoin is
• 27:26
  basically saying, like, Bitcoin's going to be the world
• 27:27
  reserve currency. It's going to knock off the
• 27:29
  dollar. Fiat's trash.
• 27:31
  And then they're like, yeah, you know what?
• 27:33
  We're going to buy a lot of Bitcoin.
• 27:34
  That is a tacit, you know, agreement to our statement that
• 27:39
  you need to hold Bitcoin. Hold on, my phone's blowing up
• 27:44
  right now that you need to hold Bitcoin because the dollar is
• 27:49
  trash. If the US government fully
• 27:51
  embraces Bitcoin in the current moment, that is a capitulation.
• 27:57
  So there is 2 conversations happening right now out of both
• 28:02
  sides of the mouth. One, the US wants to embrace
• 28:04
  Bitcoin. We want to be the Bitcoin
• 28:06
  superpower of the world. You know, digital assets this,
• 28:09
  digital assets that. And then on the other
• 28:12
  conversation, Bitcoin will help U.S. dollar dominance.
• 28:18
  In those two different conversations, depending on your
• 28:21
  vantage point, you're hearing two different things.
• 28:25
  Bitcoin superpower of the world. To us, Bitcoin is like, yeah,
• 28:27
  Bitcoin is our money, US or Bitcoin helps US.
• 28:31
  Dollar dominance obviously presupposes that they are trying
• 28:36
  to actively maintain dollar dominance.
• 28:39
  They want the dollar to keep going.
• 28:41
  Now, in the short term, I think maybe both of these can be true.
• 28:46
  I really love how my boy Nolan over at The Great Awakening
• 28:49
  always says it in the current moment, for the next decade or
• 28:52
  so, at at minimum, we will probably be living in a
• 28:57
  bimetalism type of future where you use the dollars but you save
• 29:02
  in Bitcoin like we've seen in the past where you use silver
• 29:06
  but you save in gold. Now.
• 29:08
  I'm kind of of that opinion. I think we are currently in a
• 29:11
  bimetalism scenario where the US will sort of tacitly embrace
• 29:20
  Bitcoin. It'll it'll kind of be like,
• 29:22
  yeah, it's not that bad. Like just kind of let it do its
• 29:24
  thing. But they will actively push the
• 29:26
  dollar. And so everyone will soon enough
• 29:30
  start to figure out that like, OK, you transact in dollars, but
• 29:33
  you save in Bitcoin. It's almost like the unofficial
• 29:36
  official view of the United States where they can embrace
• 29:41
  technology AKA Bitcoin, but they don't have to actively admit
• 29:46
  that the dollar is trash. They will just continue to keep
• 29:49
  the trend going, continue the big prints, you know, continue
• 29:53
  to keep the economy rolling, but also saving in Bitcoin almost as
• 29:58
  a hedge, but almost as just simply protecting yourself if
• 30:02
  anything happens to the dollar. Also a little side bit, did you
• 30:06
  guys see that clip of Andrew Sorkin going around on 60
• 30:09
  minutes where he's like, he just wrote a new book?
• 30:11
  He's obviously, you know, shilling his book talking or,
• 30:14
  yeah, literally shilling his book, but talking his book in
• 30:18
  the more traitor sense of that phrase, where the book's called
• 30:22
  1929. And there was an interesting
• 30:24
  little trailer for the 60 Minutes.
• 30:27
  And he's like, yeah, a crash is coming.
• 30:29
  A 1929 crash is coming, and everyone knows it's coming.
• 30:34
  And all the billionaires are are positioning themselves for a
• 30:37
  crash to come. But I can't tell you when it's
• 30:40
  coming and I can't tell you how deep it's coming.
• 30:42
  But trust me bro, it is coming. I also in some respects do have
• 30:51
  that opinion that potentially a crash could come.
• 30:55
  But I also have the view that being a doomer just doesn't pay
• 31:00
  off. And if you're waiting for a huge
• 31:03
  crash to come, you're probably going to position yourself
• 31:08
  negatively, You're probably not going to help your portfolio.
• 31:11
  And if we are watching anything play out right now is that you
• 31:16
  need to be holding assets. And part of holding assets, part
• 31:20
  of the psychology of that is the future will be better.
• 31:26
  So I'm not sitting here waiting for a crash to happen.
• 31:29
  And I don't necessarily think that the dollar has to crash for
• 31:33
  Bitcoin to succeed, for Bitcoin to go to ridiculous levels.
• 31:37
  I think in the interim, Bitcoin can totally make huge gains and
• 31:41
  the dollar still be where it stands right now.
• 31:45
  But on another note, there was an interesting statement that I
• 31:49
  heard over the weekend. Again, this is rumors, this is
• 31:52
  speculation, but it does, I think, lean into this story and
• 31:57
  it does go into a lot of the things that I think I've been
• 32:00
  kind of alluding to. I may have said it a few times
• 32:03
  on this show. And let me let me just find the
• 32:06
  tweet so so I don't butcher it here.
• 32:08
  Here we go. So this is from breaks news.
• 32:11
  Check this out. This is this is on the one hand
• 32:16
  hilarious and and interesting so bricks news tweeted this on May
• 32:21
  23rd. What is that on Friday evening?
• 32:24
  And it goes just in. And again, remember, in the
• 32:27
  context of the Iran peace deals happening, maybe they were
• 32:32
  happening, maybe they're not. We saw this speculative tweet
• 32:36
  made rumors it it's quoted as it's a official statement here,
• 32:41
  but it goes just in Iran says the US told them to quote,
• 32:45
  ignore President Trump's public statements as it is only for
• 32:49
  domestic media purposes. You read that and you're like,
• 32:54
  huh, So you know, Trump's just tweeting stuff too, to
• 33:03
  essentially manipulate the markets.
• 33:05
  He said it's for it's for media purposes, maybe to confuse the
• 33:09
  media outlets. Read another way.
• 33:12
  You're like, OK, he's just tweeting stuff to to move the
• 33:15
  markets and further the number of Trump himself.
• 33:19
  Well, not himself, but Trump's account has made about 40 trades
• 33:23
  a day since the war started, I think actually since the
• 33:28
  beginning of the year. So with all of this in mind,
• 33:32
  you're like, dude, literally the WTF is happening is playing out
• 33:37
  in everyone's mind. Also, you know, they ban
• 33:40
  Congress from insider trading or they're trying to ban Congress
• 33:43
  from insider trading. But, you know, the president and
• 33:46
  his cronies, excuse me, can do whatever they want.
• 33:51
  The market manipulation that we're seeing in hindsight, maybe
• 33:55
  not right now because who really knows, But once we Get the facts
• 33:58
  in hindsight, we will probably see, you know, one of the most
• 34:05
  insane amounts of market manipulation and insider trading
• 34:09
  coming from an administration we've ever seen ever.
• 34:12
  And I know when I say this, I, I, I'm not looking at the chat
• 34:16
  right now, but I can, I can, I can picture the idea of
• 34:20
  everyone's like, oh, Opti's falling for the corporate press,
• 34:24
  you know, psyops. And I'm like, yeah, maybe.
• 34:29
  But from everything we're seeing, it does seem like we're
• 34:34
  at the Rob the Copper stage of an empire collapsing.
• 34:38
  And we also have that very funny rumor of Barron Trump making
• 34:42
  insane trades on, you know, Polymarket.
• 34:45
  He's shorting Bitcoin before a huge announcement.
• 34:48
  He's longing before a huge announcement.
• 34:50
  We've seen this anonymous account make hundreds of
• 34:53
  millions of dollars seemingly on insider information.
• 34:58
  So again, this is all fog of war stuff.
• 35:03
  I think this is very clearly been proven that the
• 35:08
  disinformation is part of this process.
• 35:10
  So until we get a very concrete announcement of what is going on
• 35:17
  with the strategic Bitcoin reserve, at this point, it's
• 35:21
  like almost nothing has changed and probably nothing will
• 35:26
  change. Nothing ever happened to me.
• 35:29
  That's where we currently are and I'm I'm really starting to
• 35:35
  fight the urge to just be cynical fields in regards to
• 35:38
  everything going on right now. But the, the black Pilling has
• 35:44
  been at all time high in the last few weeks.
• 35:46
  Guys, it, it's, it's been incredible.
• 35:49
  Anyways, I just realized I've been rambling for 35 minutes on
• 35:53
  this. Absolutely crazy.
• 35:54
  OK, so today is Memorial Day. Happy Memorial Day for you guys
• 35:58
  in the US for the numbers. You know, we're just going to
• 36:01
  talk about the prices on Memorial Day.
• 36:03
  And then I got a few couple of, you know, smaller news stories.
• 36:07
  Sailor made a new buy. Wasn't Bitcoin.
• 36:11
  It is an interesting move. I will try to break down what is
• 36:16
  going on. I really don't know exactly.
• 36:20
  I'll, I'll give you that upfront.
• 36:22
  And then this week we're going to see a huge change from the
• 36:26
  CME, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which I think will
• 36:31
  fundamentally change how we view, you know, the, the TA, the
• 36:36
  astrology here. And then what do I have for the
• 36:40
  culture? Oh, yeah.
• 36:40
  Oh, yeah. On the culture, my boy.
• 36:43
  Checkmatey, my second favorite Australian, he dropped a good
• 36:51
  newsletter. I I will just kind of give you
• 36:53
  the overview of it of where we currently stand in the market.
• 36:57
  What what, where, what confirming what I think we are
• 37:03
  seeing in the market, where we potentially are, you know, are
• 37:07
  we going lower etcetera, etcetera.
• 37:08
  Because we've been seeing a lot of headlines coming out of the
• 37:10
  corporate press essentially saying like we've seen this
• 37:14
  happen in 2022, Bitcoins going to drop another huge leg down.
• 37:18
  This has played out in the past. I think that that is probably a
• 37:24
  lower possibility than what where we currently are.
• 37:28
  But the peak disbelief, apathy going on in the market right
• 37:34
  now, I think it's really good market signal of where we
• 37:37
  currently are. All right, so that's today's
• 37:39
  show. I'll be right back.
• 37:41
  Give me about a minute and 1/2 as I play a commercial break.
• 37:46
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  se-ed.com store. OK, guys, we are back one
• 39:58
  second, the sunset. All right, all right, all right,
• 40:07
  guys. I wasn't hallucinating the roof.
• 40:12
  OK, all right, I'm still getting trolled about them, you know,
• 40:15
  working on the roof in the studio, but whatever, whatever,
• 40:18
  off topic. Anyways, the current Bitcoin
• 40:19
  price is 77,680. The discount from all time high
• 40:23
  is 38.4%. The market cap still above 1 1/2
• 40:28
  trillion. We are currently at 1.56
• 40:30
  trillion and the block height is a 950,984.
• 40:36
  Before I move on, let's let's see where the current blocks are
• 40:43
  to the next having I. Maybe I should add that 'cause
• 40:47
  it is getting closer. Where is that on this chart
• 40:52
  here? Maybe I can't find it.
• 40:59
  Maybe I'm oh, here we go all right, so here I'll add it.
• 41:05
  I'll add it. Blocks to next halving.
• 41:08
  We are under 100,000 currently at 99,000 and 16 blocks until
• 41:13
  the next halving. Halving estimate April 11th.
• 41:18
  Dang, where'd it go? April Oh my God, April 11th of
• 41:23
  2028. It's going to be kind of
• 41:26
  interesting right having next halving basically when the new
• 41:32
  president gets in interesting, interesting.
• 41:36
  OK, this this number's, you know, a little different than
• 41:39
  usual. This one's this one's going to
• 41:41
  be a little shorter, but it is Memorial Day.
• 41:45
  And one of the things we always say in Bitcoin is the idea of
• 41:50
  zooming out that, you know, it's not necessarily the all time
• 41:55
  highs that are the biggest indicator, biggest signal of
• 42:00
  what's going on. You should probably as well as
• 42:04
  maybe the all time highs because everyone wants to see all time
• 42:07
  highs like how does my purchasing power increase?
• 42:10
  How how much does my Bitcoin holdings increase year over year
• 42:14
  or every four years or every five years, every decade,
• 42:17
  etcetera. But I think what is a stronger
• 42:22
  metric is usually looking at the lows because the highs can
• 42:28
  essentially, I don't want to say, give you like a false
• 42:30
  negative or, sorry, a false positive.
• 42:33
  But the bottoms is really where you start to see more of the
• 42:38
  signal of, OK, well, you know, Bitcoin got to 126, but where
• 42:45
  was the bottom or Bitcoin in a certain snapshot year over year
• 42:49
  over year? And then you really start to see
• 42:51
  the growth of Bitcoin and the exponential increase of your
• 42:56
  holdings. And, and I've always found, I
• 42:58
  found that personally, this gives me a lot more confidence
• 43:03
  than whatever the all time high can potentially be.
• 43:07
  Obviously, I get a little more excited of like, oh, all time
• 43:10
  high. We're going to, we're going to
• 43:12
  10X here. You know, we've all had the,
• 43:14
  the, I don't know if I want to say the privilege of being in
• 43:18
  Bitcoin during a bull run because not everyone has
• 43:20
  experienced an incredible Bitcoin bull run.
• 43:23
  But you, you know, when the price starts running again,
• 43:26
  everyone does something that I, I think it might be a kind of a
• 43:30
  learning experience where Bitcoin price starts going up
• 43:34
  and you do the like, if only if Bitcoin only goes another 10X,
• 43:37
  like I'll be able to retire forever.
• 43:39
  And you'd, you'd love to do that, but that's more of a
• 43:42
  hypotheticals, right? If you look at the lows, then
• 43:45
  you really start to see the increases in your purchasing
• 43:48
  power and it is Memorial Day. You know, if you got today off,
• 43:51
  if you're one of the if you're one of the lucky fews that is
• 43:54
  able to celebrate this holiday here in the United States.
• 43:59
  Let's just look at the historical, you know, prices of
• 44:03
  Bitcoin on Memorial Day and shouts out to Mark Harvey
• 44:09
  Bitcoin prices on Memorial Day. Let me see if I can make this a
• 44:13
  little, a little bigger for you guys.
• 44:16
  So 2012 it was $5. In 2013 it was $126.
• 44:24
  In 2014 it was $585. And then 2015 a bear market, it
• 44:29
  was $237. And then 2016 it started
• 44:33
  climbing again. It got to $534. 2017 2256 2018
• 44:40
  7136 Also it's interesting that 2018 was a bear market didn't go
• 44:47
  as low as you see in the previous cycle. 2019 8806 2020
• 44:56
  8907 so not the biggest increase every year, but the lows still
• 45:02
  keep going up and then you get a big boom. 2020 137 thousand
• 45:06
  dollars 3332020230 1000 2020 327 thousand and then we get another
• 45:13
  climb up 202469 last year 109 and this year $77,000 is the
• 45:23
  price of Bitcoin on Memorial Day.
• 45:25
  So the idea here is not so much to just look at maybe the four
• 45:32
  year cycle aspect of this like every four year or rather every
• 45:35
  three years it'll probably go up and then you get a a down year.
• 45:39
  I could hear people basically looking at that and doing the Oh
• 45:43
  well, I should just trade Bitcoin.
• 45:45
  You know, I just buy it on a down year.
• 45:46
  I wait three years, I trade it again, I sell the top and then I
• 45:50
  wait a year and I buy the bottom.
• 45:53
  Look, it sounds easy and and thought it sounds easy when you
• 46:00
  say it and practice it's not as easy.
• 46:04
  So what is a huge take away here for, you know, the majority of
• 46:08
  people that I think moving forward should take away?
• 46:12
  It's the idea that look, yeah, maybe the all time highs
• 46:16
  potentially are slowing down. Maybe we're not going to be
• 46:19
  seeing, you know, 100 X or even 10 XS anymore every four year
• 46:24
  cycle, or maybe the cycles aren't even a thing anymore.
• 46:28
  But what you do notice is the lows keep getting higher.
• 46:34
  When you zoom out, the Bitcoin lows continue to get higher.
• 46:38
  You continue to preserve your purchasing power year over year,
• 46:42
  maybe a couple of years over a year, and it's still the best
• 46:46
  performing store of value. It is, in my opinion, the only
• 46:50
  real store of value in the world.
• 46:51
  Yeah, I mean, you can do art and real estate and gold and all
• 46:55
  that good stuff. But if you are trying to save
• 47:01
  for a brighter future, it is Bitcoin.
• 47:04
  And I think this chart really explains it.
• 47:06
  I thought the growth was exponential.
• 47:08
  I mean, it is, but I'm getting trolled.
• 47:15
  I'm getting trolled here. All right, so look, I got in
• 47:19
  Bitcoin. I I'll say 2018 as when I really
• 47:22
  understood Bitcoin 2017, I bought some, but I really first
• 47:30
  of all had like no money, You know, I was, I was a broke.
• 47:33
  I wasn't a college student, but I was just broke.
• 47:36
  All right, I was just a broke young adult.
• 47:39
  So 2017 really in my mind, it was probably like a a missed
• 47:44
  opportunity for me personally. Yes, I was here.
• 47:47
  I was able to buy a little bit, but one, I didn't understand
• 47:52
  Bitcoin 2. I did have like a 2 month of
• 47:55
  shit coining because at the time there wasn't good Bitcoin media.
• 47:59
  So I did get swayed into the shit coin market.
• 48:02
  And three, obviously being unsure of what's going on.
• 48:08
  I wasn't, I didn't have as high as of commit.
• 48:13
  Wow. I didn't have as high of a
• 48:15
  conviction as I do now. But even then we are.
• 48:19
  Dang dude, close to a decade out and it's almost a 10X.
• 48:28
  It could be worse, right? It could be worse.
• 48:31
  Now, during this whole process, of course, there were dips that
• 48:35
  were lower during that time, most famously the 2020 drop,
• 48:40
  2018 there was a pretty big drop.
• 48:43
  So Bitcoin does go lower than the prices that are
• 48:50
  screenshotted here. But those are just buying
• 48:54
  opportunities. It's always just buying
• 48:56
  opportunities. As we always say, buy the dip.
• 48:58
  Just keep buying the dip. Now then there's always like, I
• 49:01
  have no more money to buy the dip.
• 49:03
  Well, you know, either save a little bit of money or make more
• 49:07
  money to buy more dips, or just do the constant buy every day,
• 49:13
  every week, whatever, whatever works for you.
• 49:15
  But as you can see, it does go up lower.
• 49:19
  Highs are part of the process in Bitcoin, not necessarily year to
• 49:24
  year, but we'll look back at these prices at 77 K on Memorial
• 49:31
  Day and I'm sure we will see some incredible jumps and be
• 49:34
  like, man, I wish I bought more that day.
• 49:36
  Like I wish I bought more that year.
• 49:39
  I wish I had not taken my foot off the gas in 2025 when I
• 49:43
  thought it was going to all time high.
• 49:45
  I wish I didn't, you know, buy that dumb thing with Bitcoin
• 49:49
  because now I feel like Laszlo buying pizza with 10,000
• 49:52
  Bitcoin. Just remember lower highs.
• 49:56
  I've always said in the past that it's not necessarily the
• 50:01
  highs that give me the best signal.
• 50:04
  I think it's the bottom because it shows the understanding from
• 50:09
  the market of what Bitcoin is. The more people hold Bitcoin,
• 50:15
  the more they don't want to sell their Bitcoin, the higher the
• 50:19
  lows will be because the floor is being built.
• 50:22
  A floor is being built by your guys is buying out there from
• 50:25
  all of our buying a Bitcoin, no matter the price, the floor just
• 50:30
  constantly keeps raising. And at a certain point we will
• 50:33
  look back and your grandchildren will look at you and be like,
• 50:36
  what an absolute legend. You were an absolute legend when
• 50:41
  we're five years old. How old are you?
• 50:45
  I'm in my how do I in my my middle 30s, mid 30s, yeah, mid
• 50:51
  30s. I'm in my 30s.
• 50:53
  I know, I I know I sound young and I act young, but I'm in my
• 50:59
  30s, bro. I'm in my 30s.
• 51:01
  Makes no sense to sell if you accept Ng us.
• 51:04
  True, true. 77 K is cheap. Actually, on this note, before I
• 51:09
  move on, I did see in I saw wicked.
• 51:13
  Actually, it was man. What's Walker's wife's name
• 51:17
  again? Wow how am I blanking on her?
• 51:21
  Sorry sorry sorry guys I'm I'm blanking right now.
• 51:26
  Anyways anyways I saw a good tweet and she was like my my
• 51:32
  time change my time preference is changing right now and Wicked
• 51:36
  did AII thought a witty witty tweet in response to this.
• 51:40
  He's like you lower your time preference to stack Bitcoin when
• 51:43
  you're young so that you can raise your time preference when
• 51:47
  you are old and live a good life.
• 51:51
  Oh, you're not talking to me. All right.
• 51:53
  OK. Sorry.
• 51:54
  I'm not talking to you stupid. All right.
• 51:58
  OK, all right. On that note, I will keep the
• 52:01
  show moving. I'll be right back.
• 52:03
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Leaden.
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  Bitcoin. Get both at Leaden.
• 53:04
  I'm going to give a shout out to our partner Bit Key.
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• 53:51
  All right, guys, I'm going to I'm going to patchwork a couple
• 53:55
  of news stories in here for you guys.
• 53:57
  OK, So first one, which is interesting, you know, sailor
• 54:02
  and I don't know what's going on here, guys, hold on one second.
• 54:09
  All right, whatever my my streaming software is acting up.
• 54:11
  It's it's looking ugly. Maybe it maybe I'll do this one.
• 54:16
  No, that's even uglier. This one now that's ugly too.
• 54:22
  All right, whatever, whatever. Talk to you.
• 54:25
  Who are you really? I'm an AI, bro.
• 54:26
  I'm an AI. I'm not real.
• 54:29
  I'm not real, I said. Saylor this morning tweeted.
• 54:33
  Looking forward to Bitcoin summer.
• 54:35
  Obviously we played you the clip of what he said last week on
• 54:40
  CNBC on Friday. Wait, Thursday?
• 54:43
  On Thursday? Yeah, on Thursday and he is of
• 54:50
  the opinion that we are we're leaving crypto winter quo and I
• 54:55
  I kind of hate that term and we're going into crypto spring.
• 55:01
  I do like, you know, maybe Bitcoin spring 'cause it implies
• 55:05
  that Bitcoin the price is going to spring as well.
• 55:08
  But he is now saying looking forward to Bitcoin summer.
• 55:11
  So implying that we are not out of the neck of the woods, right.
• 55:15
  Maybe I should have added this for that.
• 55:16
  Maybe I should have waited on this one for for the culture on
• 55:19
  today, today's news. But what we did see Sailor do,
• 55:22
  which I think had a lot of people scratching their head and
• 55:28
  it was Sailor tweeting that this week we bought bonds, not
• 55:34
  Bitcoin. The bit back is charging.
• 55:38
  So, you know, not buying Bitcoin, not stacking cash, but
• 55:44
  now buying bonds and everyone, I think someone I saw a couple of
• 55:49
  conversations going is like, uh oh, you know, Sailor is buying
• 55:53
  bonds instead of Bitcoin. Like he just proved that Bitcoin
• 55:56
  is over and I saw it. I think this was the most
• 55:59
  trolling, but he's like someone said, why would you buy bonds?
• 56:04
  Why don't you just buy stretch with 11.5% return?
• 56:10
  Oh man, that was a good one. I, I don't know if that guy was
• 56:12
  asking that in seriousness, but if he was asking that in
• 56:15
  seriousness, crazy, crazy work bro.
• 56:19
  Anyways, I was trying to look for what, what is the, what is
• 56:24
  sailor's reasoning for buying bonds?
• 56:26
  And he actually he did he did a meme on this or rather he
• 56:30
  retweeted a meme on this and it was this one Flying Ray, flying
• 56:36
  dude. I cannot speak today flying
• 56:37
  Ravens Michael Saylor's new product, the bit vax sucks up
• 56:41
  Bitcoin, holds value powerful suction.
• 56:44
  It captures Bitcoin fast, secure storage keeps your Bitcoin safe
• 56:48
  large capacity hoards more Bitcoin.
• 56:51
  Oh, did I not share? I didn't share and Saylor
• 56:56
  retweeted it. All right.
• 56:57
  So anyways, going back here, I think the best the kind of
• 57:01
  context that I got was from this one.
• 57:03
  I saw a couple of people kind of relaying the same message, but I
• 57:07
  like this back and forth on Twitter and so grain of stock
• 57:11
  goes helpful contacts based on the comments.
• 57:13
  Essentially it is similar to a stock buyback on MSTR for MSTR
• 57:19
  to buy bonds. Now I think this one is probably
• 57:24
  the best indicator of what is going on here.
• 57:27
  We got in a non Jackson Schroeder going don't forget it
• 57:30
  may help the to improve the credit rating.
• 57:33
  It may help to improve the credit rating.
• 57:35
  And I think a lot of the moves that we have been seeing in the
• 57:38
  last couple of weeks, I think the last couple of weeks, the
• 57:48
  moves we've seen from Sailor, I think that idea of helping its
• 57:53
  credit rating, I think a lot of that is boosting his balance
• 57:57
  sheet so that it does look more favorable to Wall Street
• 58:00
  investors. Because where we currently
• 58:04
  stand, if you are outside of the echo chamber, MSTR or even
• 58:08
  stretch to some extent, it's very popular amongst Bitcoiners.
• 58:13
  And yes, there is signs of it being popular amongst
• 58:16
  institutions. But remember 80% of stretch is
• 58:19
  being bought by retail and only 20% of stretch is bought by
• 58:23
  institutions. And even though a lot of the
• 58:26
  MSTR shareholders are the big institutions sailors, credit
• 58:31
  rating is still not the best, which means obviously from the
• 58:35
  institutional vantage point, it's still a very risky play.
• 58:39
  And when we got the original credit rating announcement the
• 58:42
  the official rating, that's exactly what they said.
• 58:46
  It's like, yeah, he's making a huge Bitcoin play, but it's
• 58:49
  still very risky. And ever since that credit
• 58:52
  rating came out, which I think it was what like ABB Double BI
• 58:55
  think it was, you've seen Sailor do a lot of moves that maybe are
• 59:01
  confusing to a lot of Bitcoiners because it's he's like, he's not
• 59:04
  stacking Bitcoin. Why would you not buy Bitcoin?
• 59:06
  Why is he buying dollars? Does that mean he's going to
• 59:08
  sell Bitcoin? Why is he buying bonds?
• 59:10
  Does that mean they don't believe in Bitcoin?
• 59:13
  I don't think that's the case. I think he I think he's making a
• 59:16
  lot of moves so that not only his credit rating goes up, but
• 59:20
  also the balance sheet looks very good for investors.
• 59:25
  And then from what I saw, this would also be a move to improve
• 59:30
  the Bitcoin per shares. Obviously, I don't know the
• 59:32
  technicals of it. That's a little more nuanced and
• 59:34
  above my pay grade here. But the big announcement, Sailor
• 59:38
  didn't buy Bitcoin this week. He's buying bonds, which is a
• 59:42
  strange move for many people, I believe, because he's known as
• 59:46
  the biggest Bitcoin buyer. OK, sorry, sorry, I'm getting
• 59:53
  distracted by the chat. All right, anyways, moving
• 59:55
  forward, this is a little interesting to me.
• 59:59
  So if you guys remember this new story, this happened months ago,
• 1:00:06
  February of this year. We got this announcement from
• 1:00:09
  the CME or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
• 1:00:13
  That the CME Group will launch 24/7 cryptocurrency futures and
• 1:00:17
  options trading on May 29th. Again, this was February 19th of
• 1:00:22
  2026. Well, that is this Friday.
• 1:00:25
  So this Friday the CME seemingly is going to launch 24/7 crypto
• 1:00:32
  futures. Now, obviously, you can take the
• 1:00:36
  angle, the very simple angle of like, OK, the traditional
• 1:00:41
  financial system is finally catching up.
• 1:00:43
  Like Bitcoin never sleeps. Wall Street sleeps all the time.
• 1:00:47
  You know, they barely work 40 hours a week.
• 1:00:51
  And you know, on today it's a holiday.
• 1:00:54
  The markets are closed, at least from what I saw this morning,
• 1:00:57
  the markets weren't open. So what does this mean for you
• 1:01:02
  as a Bitcoiner? Maybe actually, maybe not all
• 1:01:06
  Bitcoiners. What does this mean for you as a
• 1:01:10
  Bitcoin TA enthusiast? Well, it looks like we will
• 1:01:16
  probably see a little bit of a change in how maybe we think
• 1:01:20
  about Bitcoin, how our models work, what is going to happen
• 1:01:24
  with the Bitcoin price? Because as you probably know,
• 1:01:28
  there is this thing that almost all Bitcoiners are aware of if
• 1:01:32
  you've been in the space for a while, and it is the CME futures
• 1:01:35
  gap. And now on Friday, and I would
• 1:01:43
  also bet that we will probably stop seeing the CME futures gap
• 1:01:50
  phenomenon play out. Now we have covered on the show
• 1:01:55
  what CME futures are and do the futures gap even really hold
• 1:02:00
  that much weight in the markets? There is some speculation on
• 1:02:03
  this, but anyways, good coverage here from Nick Krypton.
• 1:02:06
  He goes multiple Bitcoin CME gaps remain, as you can see, at
• 1:02:10
  least the ones he's got here is between 67 and 68 and between 69
• 1:02:17
  and 70. And then we have a futures gap
• 1:02:20
  on the upside between 78 and 79. And then he's got a huge 1 all
• 1:02:27
  the way up until about 8485 Ki. Would love to see that by Friday
• 1:02:35
  the final CME gap futures break up.
• 1:02:40
  We we get up to 85 K that would be beautiful.
• 1:02:42
  But anyway, this Friday the CME will officially launch 24/7
• 1:02:46
  Bitcoin futures contract. That means the infamous SC or
• 1:02:50
  sorry CME gaps will become a thing of the past.
• 1:02:53
  Whatever will all the gap watchers do?
• 1:02:58
  So as we've said in the past, and we are seeing this play out
• 1:03:04
  currently, the classic you don't change Bitcoin, Bitcoin changes,
• 1:03:09
  you meme, it's playing out. The CME basically had to go 24/7
• 1:03:20
  because of the way that spot Bitcoin works.
• 1:03:23
  And further, we have been hearing a lot of rumors of this
• 1:03:27
  idea. Of course, SEC chair Atkins has
• 1:03:30
  been saying like everything's going on the blockchain, we're
• 1:03:32
  going to tokenize all the things, which is implying that
• 1:03:36
  the more traditional stock market will most likely, maybe
• 1:03:39
  not soon, maybe not this year, but in the near future also
• 1:03:45
  trade 24/7. So for all of the TA, you know,
• 1:03:51
  tea leaf reader readers, CME gap enthusiasts, this Friday that
• 1:03:59
  model gets put to rest. We will most likely actually
• 1:04:04
  more of a fact we will not have CME futures gaps.
• 1:04:08
  The way this usually works out is on Friday after the markets
• 1:04:12
  close, you got an ending futures contract say that would be at, I
• 1:04:17
  don't know, ADK. And then on Monday morning,
• 1:04:21
  depending on how Bitcoin traded, if it went higher than on Monday
• 1:04:26
  morning, you might get an 82 K Bitcoin gap from 80 to 82 K.
• 1:04:33
  And even though the Bitcoin price would run and say we got
• 1:04:36
  up to the new all time high $127,000, everyone would always
• 1:04:41
  say that at a certain point it will come back down.
• 1:04:45
  Close that gap before it gets another leg up.
• 1:04:49
  Well, now the models are changing.
• 1:04:53
  As I've been saying for a while, everything that we're seeing
• 1:04:57
  since 2025 rather maybe since 2024 is a better starting point.
• 1:05:02
  I think it's it all needs to be updated and that's been kind of
• 1:05:08
  my thesis for the last at, at at the very least the beginning of
• 1:05:12
  this year. But it started to really, you
• 1:05:15
  know, get get my hamster wheel turning in my head in 2025.
• 1:05:19
  I'm like, yo, things feel different.
• 1:05:22
  And now we're constantly seeing like, if you are not updating
• 1:05:27
  your mental models right now, I think you're going to be left in
• 1:05:32
  the past. I think your analysis will be
• 1:05:34
  off because things have changed. Things are changing.
• 1:05:39
  And as you guys know, I come on the show, I never claim to have,
• 1:05:43
  you know, the ultimate understanding of what's going
• 1:05:45
  on. I'm, I'm very transparent about
• 1:05:47
  the fact that, look, I don't know any better than you.
• 1:05:52
  The only thing I really have on maybe some of you guys is I've
• 1:05:56
  just been here a little longer, but that doesn't really mean
• 1:05:59
  anything. But the point of me saying that
• 1:06:03
  is if you've been in Bitcoin for even just this year, but if
• 1:06:08
  you've been in Bitcoin for multiple years now, if you are
• 1:06:12
  not trying to update your mental models, update your framework of
• 1:06:16
  how Bitcoin is going to move into the future, you are doing
• 1:06:20
  yourself a disservice and you're obviously doing a disservice to
• 1:06:23
  whoever you're shilling Bitcoin because we want to understand
• 1:06:26
  the truth. That's why I always have this
• 1:06:28
  dialogue with you guys in the chat.
• 1:06:30
  That's why you know, you'll see me on the show.
• 1:06:33
  I'll go out and I'll be like, look, from what I see from my
• 1:06:37
  vantage point, from my 42 IQ perspective, this is what I'm
• 1:06:40
  seeing. I'm not saying it's fact.
• 1:06:44
  I'm not saying, you know, I have all the answers.
• 1:06:47
  I'm just saying up until the airing of this show On this
• 1:06:51
  date, this is my view of what things are doing.
• 1:06:54
  But as you guys know, as I've been doing the show and you
• 1:06:57
  know, for many, many instances doing this show alone, I just
• 1:07:02
  constantly think about like, OK, am I, am I wrong here?
• 1:07:06
  Is my thinking off here? Do I need to update my mental
• 1:07:10
  models of what Bitcoin is doing? Did this new information
• 1:07:13
  fundamentally change how we should be viewing Bitcoin moving
• 1:07:17
  forward? That is obviously in term of
• 1:07:20
  market dynamics, not necessarily in terms of the Bitcoin network
• 1:07:24
  itself, because I don't think the Bitcoin network itself has
• 1:07:29
  really changed. Like it's obviously changed, but
• 1:07:32
  I don't think anything it's fundamentally broken to change
• 1:07:35
  my thesis on Bitcoin. But what has changed is the
• 1:07:38
  market dynamics around Bitcoin. What has changed is Bitcoin
• 1:07:42
  entering the macro conversation. What has changed is the new
• 1:07:46
  investor that is now getting interested in Bitcoin.
• 1:07:50
  And as we're seeing now, what is changing is CME futures is going
• 1:07:57
  24/7. Things, things are changing,
• 1:08:04
  guys. I think that's the just the key
• 1:08:07
  take away. Things are changing in real
• 1:08:12
  time. And I will here, I'll do a call
• 1:08:16
  of action here. Maybe it's not a call of action.
• 1:08:19
  Maybe it's more of a keep me honest moment, OK, Keep telling
• 1:08:26
  me in the chat what I need to do to make sure I can give you guys
• 1:08:31
  the best analysis, the best perspective of what is
• 1:08:34
  happening. I want to, I want you guys to
• 1:08:36
  hold me accountable. I say it all the time.
• 1:08:38
  I don't have all the answers. This is just my perspective.
• 1:08:41
  You guys call me an idiot. You guys call me wrong.
• 1:08:44
  But from what I'm seeing, this I'm, I'm giving you guys my raw,
• 1:08:48
  unfiltered thoughts throughout the whole process.
• 1:08:51
  Hopefully that's valuable. Hopefully that does help you,
• 1:08:55
  but I want to ask you guys to continue to correct me.
• 1:09:00
  The only thing maybe I would ask is, you know, let's let's not be
• 1:09:03
  rude about it. My ego can only take so much,
• 1:09:07
  OK? My ego can only take so much.
• 1:09:12
  I am a sensitive being after all.
• 1:09:17
  All right. Anyways, anyways, let's let's
• 1:09:18
  keep this show going. Let's wrap up the Monday show,
• 1:09:21
  OK? So look, before I keep it
• 1:09:24
  moving, I know I told you that I was going to bring Luke on.
• 1:09:29
  I tried to get him on this morning and guess what this guy
• 1:09:32
  told me? He's like, oh dude, sorry.
• 1:09:34
  I I double booked something very important and can I come on
• 1:09:40
  another day? I'm like, yeah, bro.
• 1:09:42
  But like I was shilling you to the audience and they were super
• 1:09:48
  hyped. So this isn't going to be an
• 1:09:51
  extremely bullish Luke Hopia Monday.
• 1:09:55
  This this actually it's another Australian's take of where we
• 1:09:59
  are. OK, so it's, it's a more
• 1:10:01
  realistic take. I, I would say I, I, this is
• 1:10:03
  sort of where where I'm at currently.
• 1:10:06
  What we were going to do with Luke today was he was just going
• 1:10:08
  to give you an extremely bullet hearted take of where we are
• 1:10:12
  headed. But since he's not here, I'm
• 1:10:15
  going to give you AI guess a more sober view of where we
• 1:10:19
  currently are. OK.
• 1:10:21
  So last commercial break and I'll be right back.
• 1:10:24
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital
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  performance. At Hive, you've got dual
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  unison. They're lean and mean, they're
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  green and clean, and they're rewriting the playbook on
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  sustainable digital infrastructure.
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  You can catch the latest buzz at Hive Digital Tech or at Hive
• 1:11:00
  digitaltech.com. I want to give a shout out to
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  our partnersat123.com. Sovereignty isn't just about
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  your money, it's about your communications, too.
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  15% off anything on the store. Oh.
• 1:12:04
  Man, you guys are funny. I I will tell Luke about the
• 1:12:07
  hair. I actually, I tell him about the
• 1:12:09
  hair every single day. OK, anyway, anyway, so since I
• 1:12:13
  didn't get the Australian here on on the show tonight with the
• 1:12:18
  funny hair, I did see an interesting tweet from
• 1:12:23
  Checkmatey, the other Australian, that him and Luke
• 1:12:28
  kind of have beef, which is actually kind of funny to me.
• 1:12:31
  It might be a it might, it might be like a a national feud or
• 1:12:36
  something. I I don't get it.
• 1:12:37
  I don't get it. But they go back and forth on
• 1:12:39
  Twitter all the time and it's hilarious.
• 1:12:41
  OK, but Checkmatey tweeted this this morning and I probably,
• 1:12:48
  well, first of all, I, I don't subscribe to your newsletter,
• 1:12:51
  Checkmatey. So, you know, I, I, I don't get
• 1:12:53
  to read it all, but I probably wouldn't have been able to cover
• 1:12:59
  this, even though I, I feel that this is exactly what's going on
• 1:13:02
  because I don't have the full source material, but I did see
• 1:13:05
  some other good source material that really does confirm exactly
• 1:13:09
  what Checkmatey said. So I'm going to read the
• 1:13:11
  beginning of his newsletter because I I think that's
• 1:13:14
  basically, you know, we don't we don't need all his charts to to
• 1:13:18
  kind of confirm what what we've all been feeling.
• 1:13:21
  But anyways, check many tweets, peek apathy, my latest piece out
• 1:13:25
  for check on chain Subs and we have a special treat today.
• 1:13:28
  I build on top of terrific work by solely Michael Sullivan
• 1:13:34
  measuring Bitcoin and sentiment and overlay where on chain data
• 1:13:37
  corroborates or diverges. As you can see it peak apathy.
• 1:13:40
  So he's saying that where we currently are in the in the
• 1:13:43
  market is peak apathy. Now what does this necessarily
• 1:13:47
  mean? Says I've been following the
• 1:13:50
  recent work by Michael Sullivan who's been analyzing the mood
• 1:13:54
  swings that bitcoiners are experiencing based on the
• 1:13:56
  content and tone of social media posts.
• 1:14:00
  The parallels to the behavior patterns we see on chain are
• 1:14:02
  striking. The Bitcoin market is currently
• 1:14:05
  in a through of absolute and extreme apathy with people
• 1:14:09
  giving up on it in droves. This is exactly the kind of
• 1:14:13
  gutter grade sentiment I see as a signal we're within the period
• 1:14:16
  of maximum opportunity of this bear market.
• 1:14:20
  I've often said that I love watching the prevailing narrow
• 1:14:23
  on Twitter not playing out in the underlying market data, and
• 1:14:27
  in this instance we can see how sentiment swings with every red
• 1:14:30
  and green candle while it's the underlying market mechanics move
• 1:14:33
  in the opposite direction. This article will leverage the
• 1:14:36
  sentiment work Michael was done and I will then demonstrate how
• 1:14:40
  these mood swings compared to what's actually happening under
• 1:14:43
  the market hood. Huge thanks to Michael, which I
• 1:14:47
  have then built my analysis on top of.
• 1:14:50
  So peak apathy. Nobody cares about Bitcoin right
• 1:14:53
  now. And you just love to see it.
• 1:14:56
  You just love to see it because that that is what I've seen not
• 1:15:03
  only on Twitter, but also based on the social media metrics that
• 1:15:10
  I've seen from our accounts, whether it's on YouTube, whether
• 1:15:15
  it's on Instagram, whether it's on Twitter, The engagement is
• 1:15:21
  and, and further, not just on our accounts, but we do also
• 1:15:24
  look at everyone that makes content in a similar frame.
• 1:15:28
  And, and we can actually very clearly see that engagement is
• 1:15:32
  down across the board. And I've been telling you guys
• 1:15:35
  this for a while that no one cares about Bitcoin right now.
• 1:15:39
  And further, a lot of us Bitcoiners are are starting to
• 1:15:42
  feel a lot of apathy in terms of just like this Bitcoin thing.
• 1:15:49
  I've seen a lot of friends and maybe even newer Bitcoiners that
• 1:15:53
  have this view of like, dude, I've been buying Bitcoin for a
• 1:15:56
  while and it's not doing anything.
• 1:16:00
  I probably should have bought something else.
• 1:16:02
  I even said it on the show the other day.
• 1:16:03
  It's kind of trolling it. It's like I should have just
• 1:16:06
  bought the S&P 500, you know, last year.
• 1:16:09
  I should have just bought the bottom of, you know, the
• 1:16:11
  beginning of the year MSTR and sold the top.
• 1:16:15
  We would have been a lot better versus freaking out over every
• 1:16:20
  move in Bitcoin. And I think what we're seeing is
• 1:16:26
  a lot of people feeling something similar where
• 1:16:30
  obviously I don't think we are going to capitulate, but we are
• 1:16:37
  starting to feel like sentiment. Sentiment is pretty bad.
• 1:16:41
  It's been bad. It's it's actually been horrible
• 1:16:44
  for a while. And here my boy Mandrake, you
• 1:16:48
  guys all probably know Mandrake. He tweeted this the other day
• 1:16:51
  and he goes, no one cares about Bitcoin anymore and it's
• 1:16:53
  awesome. And it goes Bitcoiners and no
• 1:16:55
  coiners love this. So everyone's kind of feeling
• 1:16:59
  the same thing, like no one cares about Bitcoin.
• 1:17:01
  It is peak apathy at the moment. Now, obviously from that
• 1:17:04
  perspective, it's the best time to be buying Bitcoin.
• 1:17:07
  Literally when everyone doesn't care about Bitcoin, it's the
• 1:17:09
  best time to be buying Bitcoin. It's counterintuitive.
• 1:17:12
  You when you don't feel like buying Bitcoin is probably when
• 1:17:17
  you should be buying Bitcoin. Now, obviously that's if your
• 1:17:19
  finances are, you know, in place and you have money.
• 1:17:23
  And it's not just like, oh, I need to, you know, pay my rent
• 1:17:27
  or buy Bitcoin and I don't feel like buying Bitcoin 'cause I got
• 1:17:30
  to pay my that's not what I'm talking about.
• 1:17:32
  It's more when the price sentiment is so bad that you you
• 1:17:36
  feel the pit of your stomach like you might vomit, that's
• 1:17:41
  when you should be buying Bitcoin.
• 1:17:44
  That's when you buy the people gave up on tulips too.
• 1:17:50
  Yeah. Yeah, totally.
• 1:17:52
  Yeah. I should have bought that thing
• 1:17:53
  that went up is peak regard mentality one, 100%.
• 1:17:57
  Got to tell you, it makes me overexcited to bait.
• 1:17:59
  Yeah, well, that's the thing. You've been in Bitcoin for a
• 1:18:01
  long time, right? But it is funny and and maybe
• 1:18:06
  maybe the like I started the show on with the Trump Media
• 1:18:10
  Group, maybe that is just a signal of peak apathy.
• 1:18:15
  They're like, dude, we bought the top.
• 1:18:17
  We need to sell some Bitcoin so that we have some cash on hand.
• 1:18:20
  Who knows? Obviously, until we get an
• 1:18:22
  official announcement, we don't know.
• 1:18:24
  But you can feel everyone is literally, you know, sitting
• 1:18:29
  there like, man, Bitcoin should do something.
• 1:18:35
  The back of your mind. You're like, yeah, maybe I
• 1:18:36
  should have just bought NVIDIA. Maybe I should have just bought
• 1:18:41
  Palantir at this point. Maybe I should have just bought
• 1:18:44
  the S&P 500 because, hey, look, I don't know if you saw this
• 1:18:47
  morning, but the S&P futures were going freaking all time
• 1:18:51
  high. You know, literally S&P 500,
• 1:18:54
  QQQ, Dow Jones, they're going to open tomorrow and they're all
• 1:18:59
  going to be an all time high. And it seems like the stock
• 1:19:02
  market is just continuously pumping to new all time highs.
• 1:19:06
  Now, obviously as a big corner. My view is essentially they're
• 1:19:09
  devaluing the dollar. Assets are the only thing that's
• 1:19:11
  going to go up. Trump is actively, you know,
• 1:19:15
  tweeting stuff to manipulate the market so that the stock market
• 1:19:18
  continues to go up. All of those things are
• 1:19:21
  obviously still in play, but it keeps going to all time highs
• 1:19:28
  and currently, you know, Bitcoin was correcting last week and
• 1:19:30
  they're like, man, God, I've seen what you've done for other
• 1:19:34
  people, and I would like that for myself.
• 1:19:38
  Can we get Bitcoin to RIP, though a little bullish a
• 1:19:41
  little? You know, I guess I'll do a
• 1:19:43
  little TA here analysis. But we did see over the weekend
• 1:19:46
  that Bitcoin broke down under the 50 day moving average for a
• 1:19:49
  little bit, but it's reclaimed it now it it's bouncing off the
• 1:19:53
  50 day moving average as we speak.
• 1:19:56
  And this is where the conversation, I think starts to
• 1:19:59
  get a little interesting. Here is glass node doing some
• 1:20:03
  analysis and it goes Bitcoin pulled back from 79 K to 74 K
• 1:20:07
  before rebounding towards 77K with momentum and activity
• 1:20:11
  cooling despite softer sentiment easing cell pressure hints at
• 1:20:15
  early signs of stabilization. So peak apathy.
• 1:20:21
  We've been covering the quote cellar exhaustion.
• 1:20:24
  Meme playing out latest kind of indicators are like, OK, maybe
• 1:20:29
  the market's stabilizing right now at 77 K.
• 1:20:33
  Maybe the headlines are a little overblown of us replaying the
• 1:20:37
  2222 bear market and have another extremely brutal leg
• 1:20:42
  down. Though of course you can make
• 1:20:44
  some parallels to that. And here you can see net realize
• 1:20:49
  profits lost indicator. You know, it's, it's a little
• 1:20:54
  bullish volatility spread, it's going up got funding rates, it's
• 1:21:00
  going up price momentum, it's kind of towards the bottom of
• 1:21:05
  it, which once it goes goes higher, it's going to get
• 1:21:12
  bullish. Anyways, I really like Onsole's
• 1:21:14
  take here. And I think this is what my
• 1:21:17
  thinking was this morning. I literally was looking at the
• 1:21:20
  chart. I'm like looking at the 50 day
• 1:21:23
  moving average and the 200 day moving average and I'm like, oh
• 1:21:26
  guys, are we going to get a golden cross soon?
• 1:21:30
  Is it coming? Did we get are we going to get
• 1:21:34
  the golden cross by the end of the week and then price is going
• 1:21:38
  to start going up are are we in that slow grind higher?
• 1:21:43
  Can we put the bear market behind this Is sailor correct on
• 1:21:47
  looking forward to Bitcoin summer and crypto winter being
• 1:21:50
  over? Can I finally have Nico on the
• 1:21:54
  show and be like I told you it wasn't going to be dropping
• 1:21:58
  until October of this year. We are starting to climb up.
• 1:22:03
  It's really all I wanted to do. I just, I, I just need, I just
• 1:22:07
  need the price to do something so we can get some good news
• 1:22:10
  stories so that we, we get a little life back in us.
• 1:22:13
  Because I am feeling peak apathy.
• 1:22:15
  Also, as you guys know, I'm talking to myself like a lunatic
• 1:22:19
  and hearing people on the roof now.
• 1:22:22
  It's been it's been it's been a long it's been a long, long
• 1:22:27
  winter. Anyways, here's Ansel and he
• 1:22:30
  goes Bitcoin as posted last week and today it's pretty good 78K
• 1:22:35
  next more consolidation this week.
• 1:22:38
  And you can see here he also, I believe this is he's got OK,
• 1:22:43
  this is the 95 EMA and the 1:45 EMA where the red line is
• 1:22:49
  currently at 80,009 three nine and is that purple?
• 1:22:56
  The purple line is at 76 two. As you can see, he basically
• 1:23:04
  says base case and no major breakdown attempting to break
• 1:23:07
  out again around the end of the month, which is 6 days away.
• 1:23:12
  And you can see his lines, you know, they're starting to
• 1:23:16
  starting to get narrow here. So, you know, we'll get a little
• 1:23:20
  bump up, maybe a little pull down, not too crazy, and then we
• 1:23:24
  will start to make our run up. So that is kind of my view as
• 1:23:30
  well. Seems like the price has
• 1:23:33
  stabilized or it is currently stabilizing.
• 1:23:37
  And then the next few days, next six days, you know, until next
• 1:23:43
  week is going to be interesting to watch what happened with the
• 1:23:45
  Bitcoin price. If my analysis, my gut level
• 1:23:50
  feeling of what Bitcoin is going to do does play out, then I
• 1:23:54
  think we will. I think it's going to be more of
• 1:23:57
  what what Ansel said here on this tweet here.
• 1:24:02
  But what do I know? Obviously, you know, no major
• 1:24:04
  breakdown. We will attempt a breakout
• 1:24:07
  around the end of the month, probably consolidate and go
• 1:24:10
  sideways a little bit. If you guys are watching the
• 1:24:13
  Bitcoin priced in gold chart, it's gone sideways.
• 1:24:18
  It's stabilized a little bit. You could argue that maybe it's
• 1:24:23
  going to fall off a Cliff. I know that's the prevailing
• 1:24:26
  sentiment amongst prevailing sentiment amongst the mainstream
• 1:24:32
  perspective that Bitcoin will have another leg down.
• 1:24:36
  Actually, let me let me just pull up that headline so we can
• 1:24:40
  temper our bullishness or maybe cautiousness here and we'll see
• 1:24:46
  what the press is saying about it.
• 1:24:49
  Hold on, let me let me find this.
• 1:24:56
  Here we go. Yahoo Finance, they go.
• 1:24:59
  There's the headline. The 2022 Bitcoin pattern is back
• 1:25:04
  and the second drop was worse than the first.
• 1:25:07
  So you can see, you know, Bitcoin price action mirrors a
• 1:25:11
  2022 bear flag pattern that preceded A deeper 62
• 1:25:14
  capitulation and a breakdown below the 200 day moving average
• 1:25:18
  could push Bitcoin to 40K or lower.
• 1:25:23
  And it ran and it's ran. Oh lol I didn't even see that
• 1:25:30
  but lol oh I didn't, I didn't show you guys that guy lol that
• 1:25:34
  is too funny. See, look, I'm, I'm on, I'm on
• 1:25:43
  the sailor perspective here. Crypto winter's over.
• 1:25:49
  We're not breaking down Nico's with Ben Cowan and Rand Nooner.
• 1:25:56
  Why do you say his last name? Nooner.
• 1:26:00
  Nooner, I don't know, I like the company I'm keeping here guys.
• 1:26:04
  So you know, you make up your own decision here on whether we
• 1:26:08
  are out of the winter where the price action is going.
• 1:26:11
  But I like the people on my side, OK.
• 1:26:14
  I like who I like the company. I'm keeping with my view that I,
• 1:26:18
  I'm I'm not convinced that Q4 is the bottom, but hey, I could be
• 1:26:23
  wrong this week. I can come on and be completely
• 1:26:26
  wrong and the price caters OK anyways guys here we go Monday
• 1:26:35
  show. I know it wasn't the extremely
• 1:26:39
  bullish hopia Monday show that you guys expected, but you know
• 1:26:43
  I did my best. I did my best here and another
• 1:26:50
  week of simply Bitcoin starting pretty strong.
• 1:26:56
  Let's see what happens this week.
• 1:26:57
  All right. It is seemingly feeling like
• 1:27:02
  nothing ever happens. We're kind of in the Bitcoin do
• 1:27:09
  something area right now, you know, price at this point, I
• 1:27:14
  think we're all we really are all in peak apathy.
• 1:27:16
  Like can you just like can you nuke or can you can you break
• 1:27:23
  out of this range? Because we're all tired of the
• 1:27:26
  ranging. It's like, can we get a pump or
• 1:27:28
  can we get a dump? Can we just get something
• 1:27:30
  decisive so that we can all agree on where we are and we can
• 1:27:35
  all mentally get ourselves in the night in the right
• 1:27:39
  perspective. But what I do like about where
• 1:27:42
  we currently are is that, you know, the quote, community is
• 1:27:45
  split. It does seem like 5050 split
• 1:27:49
  perspective on what's going on. Half of the people are saying
• 1:27:52
  we're going lower and the other half are saying we are going up.
• 1:27:56
  And obviously, as I said in the earlier in the show, it always
• 1:28:03
  pays to be an optimist. So I'm with it.
• 1:28:06
  Go up, Dan Hopkins, like, oh God, I'm not going to get
• 1:28:11
  through another week. Honestly, boys, I say that every
• 1:28:14
  single week. You know, it's kind of that
• 1:28:17
  classic idea of if you knew how much work you had to do
• 1:28:24
  beforehand, you probably wouldn't get it done.
• 1:28:28
  And every week it's the same thing.
• 1:28:30
  I'm like, man, how am I going to do a show this week?
• 1:28:35
  How am I going to make it through the week?
• 1:28:38
  This is part of the process. So, you know, I take it day by
• 1:28:42
  day, we will leave tomorrow's problems for tomorrow and we
• 1:28:46
  will focus on today's problems. All right, Bros.
• 1:28:48
  So anyways, on that note, you already know the deal.
• 1:28:51
  Make sure you eat some good food.
• 1:28:55
  You call your loved ones, you get a workout and you get your
• 1:28:57
  steps in. You buy some Bitcoin, you get
• 1:29:01
  some sun. Is there anything else?
• 1:29:05
  Minimize the blue lights. I'm I'm blanking on what I
• 1:29:10
  always say, but you are no deal. Get yourself mentally,
• 1:29:14
  physically, mentally, physically, financially correct.
• 1:29:19
  Put on the oxygen mask on 1st can only change the world if you
• 1:29:23
  change yourself. The revolution will not be
• 1:29:27
  televised. It starts in the mind first.
• 1:29:31
  All right guys, on that note, I will see you tomorrow.
• 1:29:33
  Have a good rest of your day. Peace out.
• 1:29:39
  Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
• 1:29:42
  Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial