Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 87 - 7/31/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 87 - 7/31/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 87 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
0:37
week and today is the final day of July.
0:40
And you guys know what that means, right Tomorrow we have
0:43
the NFL Hall of Fame game. The NFL betting season
0:46
officially begins tomorrow. So the long wait from the end of
0:50
the Super Bowl, which I'll never forget Patrick Mahomes coming
0:53
through for me in the Super Bowl.
0:55
It's been a long wait, but football is back in our lives
0:58
and I will most likely I want to give it another day.
1:00
Let's see how these lines move a bit.
1:03
I'm still looking at what the coaches are saying.
1:05
It looks like Houston, Chicago, Chicago's going to rest a lot of
1:08
their starters. This line did flip Chicago
1:11
favored by a point and a half. Now to Houston -1 1/2.
1:14
So you guys probably know what's direction I'm leaning.
1:16
But let's give it another day. But we will most likely have our
1:19
first bet of the NFL season tomorrow for the Hall of Fame
1:22
Game. 8:00 tomorrow night in Canton.
1:25
OH, and really, that means football's in the air.
1:27
You flip the calendar from July to August, it all gets back to
1:31
our favorite part of the season here with football returning to
1:34
our lives, so most likely to play on the Hall of Fame game
1:37
for tomorrow. That means today is the final
1:39
day in terms of the sports betting calendar where we only
1:43
have baseball. Obviously we're going to
1:45
continue to grind baseball start to finish until the last out of
1:48
the World Series. But we can start, you know, kind
1:50
of transitioning our brains from a money line total sport like
1:53
baseball to a spread sport to information based pre season
1:57
bets. And of course keeping an eye on
1:59
week one of the NFL regular season 'cause it's going to be
2:01
here before you know it guys. So congratulations gamblers
2:04
holiday, gamblers vacation. Pretty much the slow point of
2:08
the gambling calendar is over. And again, we got football
2:11
starting tomorrow, so that is great news.
2:13
Now looking toward today, guys, it's a kind of a smaller than
2:15
usual slate. There's a lot of day games going
2:17
on right now. I did have a three pack of
2:20
sweats for you though in Major League Baseball.
2:21
So let's see if we can get two out of three, go two and one,
2:24
eke out a winning day. I got to play on a dog, I got to
2:27
play on a favorite and I got to play on a total.
2:29
So once again, we're looking at walking through the garden,
2:32
picking off all different bet types today.
2:35
But again, the goal is to go two and one and eke out a profit.
2:37
Now looking back to her last night, pretty good night.
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We did see, however, scratch starting pitchers rear its ugly
2:44
head once again because we saw that Yankees game where we liked
2:47
that line move toward the Yankees.
2:49
We obviously saw Garrett Cole get scratched and they had a new
2:52
starting pitcher come in. And because of that situation,
2:55
it really, it really kind of affected a lot of bets because
2:58
the Yankees ended up winning the game.
3:00
But here's the thing. If you bet action, you were tied
3:03
into probably like a bad plus 100 bet.
3:05
You may have re bet the game if you liked it or if Cole got
3:09
scratched. And you said, hey, I don't want
3:10
to bet on this backup now because my, you know, basically
3:13
my whole handicap was based on Garrett Cole.
3:16
And it was a guy named Warren who was a starting pitcher.
3:18
That line shot up big lead toward Philly.
3:21
Yankees went from like even money to like plus 125 + 130.
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Maybe you said, hey, I want no part of this now that Cole is
3:28
out and maybe you just didn't bet the game at all.
3:31
So that affected obviously the outcome of how your night went.
3:34
Now if you were tied to action or you ended up, you know,
3:37
sticking with the plus hundred or betting Yankees, you had a
3:39
winning night 3 and 2 + 0.3 units.
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That's based on the kind of the action price at the time of the
3:45
pod plus 100 or if you didn't bet the Yankee game because of
3:49
the scratch starting pitcher 2 and 2 + 0.3 units.
3:52
So either way, a great night, which was led by again, Yankees
3:56
bet if you hit it, but really Colorado and the Angels, we love
4:00
that opportunity going over. I think we catch that thing in
4:03
the third inning, guys. So that was great to see.
4:05
It was a ten to seven game and we went way over the total in
4:09
that one, which was nice. And then the Padres that was
4:11
that was the anniversary gift that I was very happy about.
4:14
Toward the tail end of the pod. I mentioned that I went out to
4:17
dinner last night for the one year anniversary.
4:19
Me and the wife, we've been together five years, but now one
4:22
year officially married January or July 30th is our anniversary
4:26
date. But I came home and she's from
4:28
San Diego. It all it was like the stars
4:30
were aligned. Padres were down five to three
4:32
in the bottom of the ninth. This is one of the best hits of
4:34
the year in my opinion cuz he got some plus money with San
4:37
Diego plus 120 + 115. But we love about that is they
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were down five to three bottom of the ninth.
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It's like, OK, we're not going to get this one.
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Machado hits a Homer to make it 5 four.
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Jackson Merrill hits a bomb to make it 55123 tenth inning.
4:52
The bottom of the tenth, Donovan Solano bases loaded single and
4:56
the San Diego Padres walk it off.
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They were actually down 5. Nothing in that game.
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So a huge hit from the Padres and then also losers here, Red
5:03
Sox, twins. Both were dogs, Both were sharp
5:06
moves. Couldn't come through for the
5:07
team. But pretty much a winning night
5:09
regardless whether you played the Yankees or not.
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So let's see if we can keep this winning streak going.
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Let's see if we can go 2:00 and 1:00 today with a smaller than
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usual slate. Again, only three games here
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that caught my eye and nothing wrong with that.
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Again, you don't want to force too much and you want to make
5:23
sure that when you're placing a bet, it's a game that you have
5:25
confidence in based on the way you're interpreting the betting
5:28
market. So without further ado, let's
5:30
get to our first bet of the day. This is a 4:10 PM Eastern Time.
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First pitch, little day baseball or late afternoon baseball,
5:37
Seattle Mariners and the Boston Red Sox.
5:40
Now this is the rubber match of a three-game series.
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Red Sox are coming in 56 and 50. They won the opener.
5:45
Fourteen to seven took care of business as a -, 125 home
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favorite yesterday. The Mariners, 57 and 52, clawed
5:53
back with a 5:50 win, much to my chagrin.
5:55
I was on the Sox, but the Mariners cashed -120 as a road
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favorite. So for tonight's late afternoon
6:01
series finale, remember this is a 4:10 PM Eastern Time first
6:04
pitch. As soon as the pod drops, you
6:05
probably want to get this one in if you're going to play it so
6:08
it's not a 7:00 again 410. Anyway, pitching match up for
6:12
tonight, we have the Mariners going with ready George Kirby.
6:15
He's eight and seven with a three-point O3 ERA on the year.
6:18
Red Sox meanwhile are going to go with ready Brian Baio.
6:21
He's got a great one loss record 10 and 5 ERA hasn't been great
6:24
5.27 but he has pitched better in the month of July.
6:28
Now, what are we seeing across the market here?
6:30
Well, make it very simple. Lines going away from Seattle
6:33
toward Boston. I'm going to go with the Red Sox
6:35
here, guys at around plus one O 5 + 100 if you can find a little
6:40
bit of plus money on Boston. But this game open with Seattle
6:43
with surrounding -120 Rd. favorite and the public has no
6:47
idea what to do. Basically, it's 5050 bet split
6:49
right down the middle. Half the tickets on Seattle,
6:52
half the tickets on Boston. And what are we always talk
6:55
about with a 5050 bet split? I think it's important when
6:57
you're looking at line movement, you're kind of understanding
7:00
what's going on. Is it a classic steam move?
7:02
Is it a reverse line move? Is it a 5050 move?
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Is it is the line going with the majority of bets against the
7:08
majority of bets? You always want to kind of ask
7:10
yourself, hey, you know, what am, what am I discerning from
7:13
the betting market when I'm comparing the line movement to
7:15
the percentages? But when we talk about a 5050
7:17
line move, what I mean by that is the tickets are down the
7:20
middle. And theoretically in a vacuum,
7:22
if the tickets are split, you would assume there's no reason
7:25
to adjust the number, right? You got balanced action, both
7:27
sides. However, we got to remember the
7:29
difference between tickets and money.
7:31
Tickets or bets are just the raw number of tickets or bets on the
7:34
game. Money or handle is the overall
7:36
money that's been wagered. So it might be a situation
7:39
where, you know, tickets are split down the middle 5050, but
7:43
maybe one side is receiving, you know, a lion's share of the
7:46
bigger, sharper wagers. The other side is getting more
7:48
public bets, $5 average Joe bets.
7:51
So it looks to me like the smart money is on Boston because this
7:54
line went from Seattle -120 down to -115 some looks even a little
7:58
lower to like -112 and in favor of Boston getting around plus
8:03
110 now to around even money. And again, some shops even
8:06
though seem like a -, 1 O 5. So again, as always, shop
8:09
around, get the best number. Anyway, lines going away from
8:12
Seattle toward Red Sox, even though we have a 5050 split,
8:15
tells me the Red Sox are taking in some smart money here.
8:18
Now we look at the Red Sox. I'm going to bank on their
8:20
offense here. My Red Sox are hitting 260 on
8:23
the year. They scored 519 runs.
8:26
The Mariners, meanwhile, had to make a bunch of deadline moves.
8:28
They're hitting only two nineteen with 429 runs scored.
8:32
And also I'm going to bank on dog high total.
8:35
Correlative betting is so important because it gives you
8:37
kind of a glimpse into maybe the the kind of the game script or
8:40
how the game may go. High total in this one is 9 1/2.
8:43
Obviously you've seen both these games fly over the first two
8:46
match ups, but with a high total good thing for a dog because
8:50
more expected runs scored, more variants, more upset
8:53
opportunities benefits that dog. Also.
8:56
Let's dig into these pictures a little bit.
8:57
George Kirby, he's been great. Remember, he's on the year 8 and
9:00
seven three-point O3 ERA, but he has struggled a little bit on
9:03
the road at home 2.52 ERA on the road 3.47.
9:09
So obviously he's been worse on the road.
9:10
He's on the road here today laying a short minus number.
9:14
Meanwhile, Brian Baio, Red Sox are four and one in his last
9:17
five starts. He's been pitching a little bit
9:18
better, giving up three and runs or less.
9:20
He's getting some run support. Hopefully that continues today.
9:23
And lastly, we got two righties on the bump.
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How do these teams perform against right-handed pitchers?
9:28
Well, the Red Sox are second best in baseball against
9:30
righties. They're hitting 264.
9:33
The Mariners are 29th in baseball against righties, only
9:36
hitting 219. So you add it all up, we got a
9:39
5050 bet split. Yet the lines dip in a little
9:41
bit toward Boston. Dog high total, better bats.
9:45
Hopefully we can get to Kirby on the road.
9:46
I'm going to take a shot on the Red Sox here guys, shop around.
9:49
I got the Red Sox at plus one O 2 again, probably find a plus
9:52
one O 1 + 1 O2 even money. There's some -1 O fives out
9:56
there. Try to get as close to even
9:58
money as you can. Let's go Red Sox, let's get a
10:00
dog to bark here to start our day.
10:03
Keep on cruising. I'm going right back to Petco
10:06
Park because over 4th of July me and the wife visited the the
10:10
inlaws in San Diego. We went to a Padres game was a
10:12
ton of fun and I I really enjoy betting Padres games because I'm
10:17
a Red Sox fan die hard. But kind of my adopted second
10:20
favorite team is the pods came through obviously massive for
10:24
the team last night with a big come from behind win and I'm
10:27
going to go right back to the wall with the with the Padres
10:29
here tonight. So this is game two of this.
10:31
I think it's a short two game series, but we did see the
10:34
Padres win last night, come from behind, win six to five and
10:37
extras cashing as a + 115 home dog.
10:40
Pods on the year are now 58 and 51.
10:43
You know the Dodgers 63 and 45. They're going to go with lefty
10:48
Clayton Kershaw, who was hurt much of the year, just I believe
10:50
made one start since coming off the injured list.
10:53
But on the year O&O with a 4.5 O ERA.
10:56
Meanwhile, the pods are going to go with ready Dillon Cease 10
10:59
and eight 3.5 O ERA. More on him in a minute because
11:02
remember, he just threw the no no his last start out.
11:05
What have we seen across the market here?
11:07
Well, we saw the San Diego Padres open as a very short -120
11:10
home favorite. And the public is saying really,
11:13
you're going to give me Dodgers bounce back spot plus money, You
11:17
know, plus 110 ish public saying give me the Dodgers here.
11:20
Why not take the Dodgers as a plus money dog?
11:23
It's very rare. Like when's the last time I
11:25
should look this up in my database?
11:26
That Kershaw was a dog almost never happens.
11:29
So you're getting currently 56% of bets on the Dodgers.
11:33
But what's going on in the betting market guys?
11:35
This line, even though the Dodgers are the public play,
11:38
it's going towards San Diego. San Diego open -120 Padres are
11:42
now up to -130 so take a step back.
11:45
If majority of bets are on LA, why is line going to San Diego?
11:49
If the majority of of public batters were running as fast as
11:52
they could to the window to get plus 1/10 with the Dodgers, why
11:55
are the odds makers now given a, you know, a + 115 A+ 120 tells
12:00
me we got smart money here coming down on the pods to
12:02
hopefully win their second game in a row at home at Petco Park
12:06
against their hated rival, the Dodgers.
12:08
Also, I like to find the fact that San Diego was another
12:12
correlative betting play because we just talked about Red Sox dog
12:15
high total, Padres favorite low total total.
12:18
This one is 7. Some looks even open at 7 1/2.
12:21
It got bet down to seven. So when you're a favorite, the
12:24
lines will be in your direction -122 -. 130 San Diego and you're
12:28
seeing that total drop. That's a good sign if your
12:31
amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from quote
12:34
UN quote the the team that is favored.
12:36
I usually say the better team, which is based on the favorite
12:38
designation, but really it's a team that's favored in that
12:40
particular game. Now Cease, who we just mentioned
12:43
came coming off that. No, no, against the Nationals.
12:46
Even before that, he's had a really good July 2.48 ERA in
12:50
five July starts. And what have these teams done
12:52
last 10 Dodgers haven't been bad.
12:54
They're six and four, but they're only hitting 250 with a
12:57
4.5 O team ERA. Meanwhile, the Padres are eight
13:00
and two in their last ten, hitting 287 with a 3.13 ERA, and
13:05
they just made a bunch of moves for some bullpen help.
13:08
So this seems to me like a fade the trendy dog opportunity
13:11
public Dodgers line going to Padres.
13:13
I want to back Cease and the pods at home with the better
13:16
bats and some correlative betting value.
13:18
I'm on San Diego at -130 keep on cruising.
13:23
Last bed of the night. I tell you what, guys, if it
13:25
ain't broke, don't fix it. Let's go right back to the Angel
13:29
Angel Stadium in Anaheim, Colorado.
13:32
LA Angels. Now we saw last night, obviously
13:36
a ton of offense, which was great to see because we had that
13:39
over and I'm hoping for basically more of the same here
13:41
tonight. Now going into this matchup
13:44
again to the worst teams in baseball, but we have the
13:47
Rockies coming in 38 and 70, Angels 47 and 60.
13:52
Now, this line has moved a little bit toward the Angels.
13:56
You know, they're like -135 - 140 still around -140 might
14:01
maybe -145 at a couple shops. So not a ton in terms of
14:04
movement. But what jumped out to me is an
14:07
opportunity to just root for runs again tonight, guys, Let's
14:10
start off with the pitching matchup for the Colorado
14:13
Rockies. We got Kyle Freeland going, the
14:15
lefty. He's two and four with a 6.23
14:18
ERA. He'll be opposed by Davis
14:20
Daniel. He is one and two of the 5.82
14:23
ERA. Now what are we seeing across
14:25
the market? Some good liability to the over.
14:27
This total opened at 8 1/2 and basically every book is 8 1/2 /
14:32
-, 115 -, 120. So it juiced up over or a lot of
14:36
books are even up to 9 right now.
14:38
So always so important when you're betting a total to get
14:40
the triggering number. This tells me that that the
14:43
triggering number was 8 1/2. That triggering number basically
14:45
means what's the number that the wise guys hit?
14:48
What's the what number? What in terms of the ticket the
14:51
sharps are holding? What's that number that they
14:53
got? So tells me based on the juice
14:56
and some movement that it's 8 1/2.
14:58
So again, shop around. You should be able to find that
15:00
8 1/2. You're going to have to pay a -,
15:02
120 juice, but hopefully it'll be worth it.
15:04
Again, 5 four-game. We want to cash that over 8 1/2,
15:07
not push a nine. But we have the juice liability
15:10
and movement toward the over. Currently you have 80% of bets,
15:13
but 90% of money on the over. So public's probably saying,
15:16
hey, ten to seven game yesterday, might as well take
15:19
the over again. Whereas wise guys, you know,
15:21
they don't really care what happened the previous game.
15:23
It's all about what they are projecting based on their
15:25
numbers and power ratings for that particular match up.
15:27
So it tells me wise guys probably have something closer
15:30
to a nine, nine and a half anyway, which is why they're
15:32
hitting this over. Now we look at these pictures,
15:35
The really weird thing about Kyle Freeland, you know,
15:37
typically with Coors Field you see starting pitchers really bad
15:41
ERA at home and better on the road.
15:43
Freeland is weirdly the opposite.
15:45
He's got a 1.88 ERA at home, get 9.96 on the road.
15:50
He's on the road tonight. Then you look at Davis Daniel,
15:53
this is a young kid. I believe he's a rookie, but
15:56
he's only made three starts. His last two starts, he had a
15:59
decent debut, but his last two starts, giving up eleven runs in
16:02
nine innings, that's an ERA of 11.
16:04
So hopefully he gets lit up here tonight.
16:06
And then also looking at the weather, 80° wind blowing out
16:10
five to 10 mph. So a nice night at the ballpark
16:13
here tonight. But in particular, a big reason
16:15
why we like the over in yesterday's game, same thing,
16:18
juice movement over, good bets split to the over, you know, bad
16:22
pitching, but also bad bullpens. And we saw it last night with a
16:25
lot of runs late. But we are looking at Colorado,
16:28
the worst bullpen in baseball, 5.59 ERA, Angels sixth worst
16:33
4.34 ERA. And also, I was kind of just
16:37
interested because I feel like, hey, we've been cashing a few
16:39
overs here again, try to be selected with our totals.
16:42
You know, what's the deal with overs in July?
16:43
Well, I pulled up my database and the proof is in the pudding.
16:46
In the month of July, guys, I know this is the last day we're
16:49
going to flip the calendar. It's going to be August starting
16:51
tomorrow. But in the month of July, overs
16:53
are 189 and 156. That is a 55% win rate, 6% ROI.
17:00
When the total is 9 or less, the over is 170 and one 3656%.
17:06
The Angels at home in the month of July, the over is 7, four and
17:09
one. And Colorado on the road in the
17:12
month of July, the over is 9:00 and 3:00.
17:14
So we just have a lot of indicators here that hopefully
17:17
we're going to get another high scoring game.
17:19
So again, ain't broke. Don't fix it.
17:21
I'm going Colorado and the LA Angels over.
17:24
Make sure you find that 8 1/2 / 8 1/2 at -120.
17:29
So Red Sox around even money, San Diego -130 Colorado Angels
17:33
over 8 1/2 around -120 small three pack tonight.
17:37
Let's try to go two and one and eke out a profit.
17:40
That about does it for episode 87 of the All Systems Go Sports
17:43
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
17:45
This is the part of the show where I ask something of you.
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Can you please make me very happy?
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Do me a big favor. And if you enjoy this pod, you
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enjoy the breakdowns, could you please give this podcast a 5
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It really helped to grow the pod.
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you could quickly give it a 5 star review.
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Secondly, if you enjoy this approach to sports betting, no
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opinion, no parlays, no betting what we think or want or hope
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will happen. We're making bets based on what
18:24
the market is telling us. If that style of betting appeals
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or you want to make my day, make me very happy, then go buy my
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When I see at the sports book, I'm going to sign my book for
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podcast. So that about does everybody.
20:05
Let's see if we can eke out another winning night here for
20:07
tonight. And as always, I'll leave you
20:09
with a couple things #1 whether I see you at the Borgata in
20:12
Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New
20:15
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
20:18
Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
20:22
And my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
20:24
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
20:26
Or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
20:29
use possible is found at the South Point.
20:31
Or sweating sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
20:33
swim pool. When you catch a big ticket at
20:35
Circo, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
20:38
and you're going to show me a Colorado Angels over ticket from
20:41
last night. You're going to show me most of
20:43
all, though, the fathers. That's right.
20:45
Dad came up huge last night. The Padres walking it off.
20:48
If you're able to catch the Yankees, even better.
20:51
But guess what? First one's on me, next one's
20:53
on. You were going to post about the
20:54
book Sweatshar Contrarian plays all night long.
20:58
So wish you the best of luck. Everyone have a fantastic
21:00
Wednesday night. I got a big beer league softball
21:03
game tonight under the lights. I believe the game is in
21:06
Cambridge or Newton. I got to make sure I got the the
21:09
correct field, but very much looking forward to that and
21:12
seeing if we can go two and one and then we're going to wake up
21:14
tomorrow morning and have some football to bet on.
21:16
So what's better than that? I would argue nothing.
21:19
So either way guys, always remember, stay sharp, stay
21:22
contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
21:24
side of the house, always be with the smart money, never
21:27
against it. Will smart money win every time?
21:30
Of course not. You guys know by now sports
21:32
betting is hard, but that makes it worthwhile when you win.
21:35
It gives you perspective when you're struggling.
21:37
And if we can consistently bet with our head and not our heart,
21:40
Find that sweet spot against the public with the house, with the
21:43
pros, flat bet, no parlays and get some CLV.
21:47
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
21:50
So enjoy the sweats, everyone, guys, let's see.
21:52
We can get after it here and go two and one and eke out a
21:54
winning night. And then tomorrow we're going to
21:57
bet on the Hall of Fame game. So let's go.
22:00
Have a great night, everybody. I'll see you tomorrow for
22:01
episode 88 on a thirsty Thursday of the All Systems Go sports
22:06
betting podcast powered by rhythm.
22:09
Good luck everybody, have a great night.