Latest / Best of Business / Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on New Zealand's GDP going up by 0.2 percent

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Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on New Zealand's GDP going up by 0.2 percent · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talk sed be
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  Speaker 2: We're broken out of recession officially. How good is that?
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  Speaker 2: But it's margin of era stuff. The economy grew zero
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  Speaker 2: point two percent in Q one. That's the upper end
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  Speaker 2: of expectations. Liam Dan's The Herald's Business editor at large
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  Speaker 2: and with us Liam, Hello today. Heather got to take
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  Speaker 2: a win when we get one, right.
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  Speaker 3: I guess look, I'm pretty downbeat about it. I think
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  Speaker 3: it's all about per capita, really, isn't it in terms
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  Speaker 3: of how people are feeling on the ground. I basically
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  Speaker 3: don't want to be the guy shouting about it's all
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  Speaker 3: over when we know that it's not all over and
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  Speaker 3: that the next few months are going to be pretty tough.
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  Speaker 3: To me, it's really all about when those interest rates
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  Speaker 3: start coming down. So you know, we can talk about
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  Speaker 3: February or May or September if you're the Reserve Bank.
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  Speaker 3: But I think the idea of a downturn we're still
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  Speaker 3: very much in it.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I was saying earlier and I still
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  Speaker 2: think that are they going to move in November because
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  Speaker 2: of just how stuffed we are. But I mean, as
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  Speaker 2: somebody pointed out before, the inflation doesn't warrant that.
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  Speaker 3: Does it. It doesn't warrant in terms of yeah, well
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  Speaker 3: I mean November. No, it doesn't yet. I mean, look
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  Speaker 3: it could, you could be quite right, and I hope
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  Speaker 3: you are that that because it's so bad, particularly in
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  Speaker 3: that services sector. We're seeing that coming off a bit
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  Speaker 3: of a cliff. And you know that that end of
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  Speaker 3: the economy that's you know that we really feel is
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  Speaker 3: where all that non tradable inflation was so non tradable
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  Speaker 3: inflation is sticky. It's something like five point eight percent,
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  Speaker 3: and tradeable, which is imported food and oil and stuff,
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  Speaker 3: is down one point six or something very low. The
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  Speaker 3: non tradable is the bad stuff. We know that people
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  Speaker 3: are afraid that it will stick there and will be
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  Speaker 3: but actually, if the economy really tanks, and you know
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  Speaker 3: in those areas that we saw today under the hood
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  Speaker 3: on the GDP, it could come away quite fast. So yeah,
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  Speaker 3: you're right. There's a few economists Tony Alexander Kiwi Bank
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  Speaker 3: who still think and and some of the international ones
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  Speaker 3: capitally Canon and things still think November as possible. It
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  Speaker 3: confuses that having that zero point to growth. In some
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  Speaker 3: ways it would have been cleaner if we'd actually gone off.
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  Speaker 3: It's really really terrible. The top line still down, we're
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  Speaker 3: still in recession.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, how many more inflation numbers do we get before November?
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  Speaker 2: We've got one in October, don't.
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  Speaker 3: We that's a good question. We must have two more,
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  Speaker 3: I think.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, two more for it to come back and then
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  Speaker 2: and convince Adrian.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and as you know, we don't get we don't
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  Speaker 3: get the data quickly enough to really really give them
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  Speaker 3: much opportunity to turn around. They'll be nervous because you know,
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  Speaker 3: we can't control that tradeable So if you'll see in
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  Speaker 3: the UK that they've got the CPI inflation down around
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  Speaker 3: two percent and they're still not coming because their non
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  Speaker 3: tradeable inflation is up around you know, five point eighty
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  Speaker 3: six percent or something, and that's the bit that reserve
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  Speaker 3: bank central banks can control. And so if you've got
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  Speaker 3: that up high and then you have an oil shock
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  Speaker 3: or something like that, then you're back into the horrible
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  Speaker 3: stagflation and everything. So so you know, I understand why
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  Speaker 3: they're nervous. We want to see it, you know, squashed
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  Speaker 3: and killed off. Yeah, November Hope.
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  Speaker 2: So yeah, fingers cross, fingers cross, let's go for that, Liam.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Liam Dan, the Herald's Business editor
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  Speaker 2: at large.
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