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Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on the predicted cuts to the OCR · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: So the OCR announcement coming today, most banks picking fifty
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: basis points. But there's a lot of water to go
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: under the bridge before the next meeting in February next year.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: You've got Trump coming in, You've got tariffs on day one.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Mike Jones is the Benz chief economist. Why not seventy
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: five basis points?
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: Mike, Yeah, morning, Ryan. Look I can see some of
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: the logic for seventy five basis points. I mean, we
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: know that the OCA is headed lower after this, we
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: know it's going to four central, maybe below that, So
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: why not just get on with it? The economy needs it,
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: after all. But look, I think you know the big bazooka,
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: the seventy five point or larger moves tend to be
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: reserved for more crisis type situations, and clearly we're not
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: in one of those at the moment that there are
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: some signs that the economy is responding to some of
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: the rate caps so we've seen today. So no need
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: to sort of scare the horses just yet.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: When do you think we'll get back to neutral?
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: It's looking at the moment humans and things can obviously change.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Like a story for mid to late next year, that's
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  Speaker 2: what's baked into where our numbers are moved back to
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  Speaker 2: that three three and a half percent zone for the
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  Speaker 2: official cash raders around that neutral area. But Culy there's
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: a lot of uncertainty about just where neutral is. So
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a case of moving
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: in that's smaller moves next year and seeing how the
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: economy responds.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: All right, Mike, thank you very much for that analysis.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Mike Jones, B and B and Z chief economists with
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  Speaker 1: us this morning. For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge,
• 1:35
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• 1:39
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