Latest / Simply Bitcoin / $7.32T Asset Manager Predicts $1M Bitcoin IF This Happens! | EP 1134
Transcript
- 0:00Yo, the third largest asset manager in the world with a lazy
- 0:05$7 trillion of assets under management has just made an
- 0:09incredibly bullish Bitcoin prediction that confirms a lot
- 0:13of things that I've been saying that this cycle could be
- 0:16different. And before we get into all that,
- 0:18let's just play the clip for you guys.
- 0:20Let's let's hear it from the horse's mouth.
- 0:23What? Where does it go?
- 0:24What's your What's your price target for Bitcoin?
- 0:26So I think in the short term, we're going to see one of two
- 0:28cases. The first case is we're going to
- 0:31have some sideways action between 110 and downwards to 80
- 0:35and we'll see some chop. The second scenario, and that
- 0:38will come either in the short term or in the medium term is
- 0:42once we have the Bitcoin Act, which is currently under
- 0:45consideration past where the US government will be buying
- 0:49Bitcoin into its reserves as well as other countries and
- 0:52other corporates for their treasury assets as well.
- 0:55We could see a 500K Bitcoin or $1,000,000 Bitcoin.
- 0:58Sky is really the limit here. And why?
- 1:01What would drive it there? So Bitcoin is inherently a
- 1:04scarce asset. You only have 21 million
- 1:06bitcoins and the Bitcoin Act for example proposes buying 200,000
- 1:12bitcoins a year, which would significantly drive up the price
- 1:17as there's a finance supply. And what about use cases?
- 1:19I was talking about this with a guest on a previous show on
- 1:23Trading 360. Just in terms of, you know,
- 1:25President Trump, President-elect Trump has talked about, you
- 1:28know, the one rule of Bitcoin is you don't sell your Bitcoin, but
- 1:32do you expect more people to actually start using it in terms
- 1:36of an actual currency? For sure.
- 1:39So I don't think that Bitcoin is inherently the type of currency
- 1:42that you buy a cup of coffee with.
- 1:44There are places where people do that.
- 1:45So for example, El Salvador, which I've written about
- 1:48extensively, they use the Lightning Network for those
- 1:51types of smaller transactions, but you don't necessarily need
- 1:54it for that. That's not the prime use case.
- 1:56The prime use case of Bitcoin is a worth value.
- 1:59So when we think about money, there's usually 3
- 2:02characteristics that people ascribe to money, the economists
- 2:05ascribe to money, and that is method of exchange, unit of
- 2:08account, and store value. So there's thousands of methods
- 2:11of exchange around the world. Every currency around the world
- 2:14is a method of exchange, unit of account.
- 2:16However, there's only a handful. There's the dollar, there's the
- 2:19euro, there's the yen, and now there's Bitcoin.
- 2:22But when you talk about store value, none of those things are
- 2:25considered stores of value because of their inflationary
- 2:28property. So if you're a high net worth
- 2:30individual living in the US, you're not storing your value in
- 2:33a case of cash. You're storing your value in
- 2:36buildings and businesses and sports teams and gold and now in
- 2:39Bitcoin. So Bitcoin is that similar type
- 2:42of property. It's just digital, which makes
- 2:44it that much easier to move, to sell, to trade, to transfer it
- 2:48across borders. So it's basically digital.
- 2:52It's property but improved. And and how much of A portfolio
- 2:56do you think should be allocated to cryptocurrency at this point?
- 2:59And has that changed now that we have a very pro crypto president
- 3:04coming into office? Absolutely.
- 3:06I think if you don't have at least 10% of your investment
- 3:09account in Bitcoin or Bitcoin related assets, you're going to
- 3:12fall. Let's go.
- 3:16As someone just said in the chat, how can we handle all of
- 3:19this? Bullish news, guys, it's getting
- 3:21incredible. It's going to be an incredible
- 3:232025. But of course, I'm not here
- 3:25alone. I'm here with fellow content
- 3:27creator Luke Mikich. Love to have you on, bro.
- 3:30So if you guys know Luke, you know that today is going to be
- 3:33maybe overly bullish, but it's Friday, so we'll send the
- 3:36weekend off good. Anyways, there's a few things
- 3:38that I want to hit on Luke before I pass you the mic.
- 3:41First one is I think a lot of us even in Bitcoin and actually
- 3:46I've been hearing a lot of like, you know, skeptics on Bitcoin.
- 3:49We, we got some pretty big people talking bad about the
- 3:52Bitcoin strategic stockpile in the US, But I think a lot of us,
- 3:55even Bitcoiners are underestimating the impact that
- 3:58the US would have on stockpiling Bitcoin.
- 4:01Remember, if that this Bitcoin act does get pushed through,
- 4:05they do kind of do and push forward the Bitcoin Strategic
- 4:08Reserve Act, they're going to be buying 200,000 Bitcoin a year
- 4:12for at least the next four years.
- 4:14And obviously, if it does well, that could continue on into the
- 4:17future. And we've been seeing and a lot
- 4:19of speculation around the world that, you know, ever since the
- 4:23US kind of announced this, every other nation in the world is at
- 4:26least at the very least thinking about following suit.
- 4:29Now again, the next thing that I thought was very interesting was
- 4:33her kind of saying that Bitcoin is not a currency, it's just a
- 4:35store of value. Obviously she's talking about
- 4:38the three properties of money, unit of account, mean of
- 4:40exchange, store of value. Now, I think she might be right
- 4:43in, in the short term, this is kind of what Bitcoin's been
- 4:46doing the last couple of years, the last 15 years, kind of
- 4:49bootstrapping itself as just a store of value.
- 4:51So I don't necessarily think that that is a bad narrative to
- 4:55be talking about. But as us Bitcoiners kind of
- 4:57believe moving forward, we all know, at least us, like really
- 5:01hardened Bitcoiners believe that Bitcoin is the superior money in
- 5:04the world. And it does have all of these
- 5:06three various properties of money and it's just kind of
- 5:09bootstrapping itself in the moment.
- 5:11And that's why it's kind of been acting like a store of value.
- 5:14And there's even skeptics that talk about it not even being a
- 5:16store of value, which I kind of find hilarious considering it's
- 5:19the best performing asset, the best the last 15 years.
- 5:21It's the best thing to be holding.
- 5:23Now. The next thing I think it's very
- 5:25interesting is not only that, you know, she's being superbly
- 5:29bullish, literally giving 500K to $1,000,000 prediction for
- 5:322025, but a, a insignificant increase in her, you know,
- 5:38recommendation of 10% allocation.
- 5:40Remember the beginning of the year, everyone was kind of
- 5:43saying, oh, you know, Larry Fink came out here create an ETF like
- 5:47what is the, the perfect allocation that I should have
- 5:51the Bitcoin. And everyone was kind of saying
- 5:53like 1%, maybe 5%. Well, slowly inching up to 10%.
- 5:57And I think when this news first came out, me being stupidly
- 6:00bullish, I'm like, you need to go all in.
- 6:02It needs to be your whole portfolio.
- 6:03Well, now you're seeing that it's slowly inching forward.
- 6:06And remember there was the report from BlackRock and I
- 6:08think their allocation preference was somewhere around
- 6:1220 percent, 25% if I remember correctly.
- 6:16So we're getting, we're getting very bullish out here.
- 6:18And the last thing that I want to mention, guys, it's just that
- 6:22it's no longer just Bitcoiners talking stupidly bullish about
- 6:26Bitcoin. You're starting to see it
- 6:27hitting, you know, Tradfi networks here.
- 6:30And remember, what those networks are designed to do is
- 6:34to inform investors their client base out there.
- 6:37And so the signal is spreading, which is something I've been
- 6:40saying to you guys all year, that now it's not just
- 6:43Bitcoiners being bullish out there, and it's not just
- 6:45Bitcoiners talking to Bitcoiners, but it's Tradfi
- 6:48talking to, you know, Main Street.
- 6:50It's Tradfi talking to, for lack of better terms, the normies out
- 6:53there trying to educate them. But the point remains the same.
- 6:57I think a lot of people are going to be blindsided by how
- 6:59big of an impact Bitcoin is going to have in 2025.
- 7:02With that being said, I think a lot of people are going to be
- 7:04blindsided with how high Bitcoin can run.
- 7:07I'm starting to get really bullish by the end of this year.
- 7:102025 is starting to feel crazy. I know a lot of bitcoiners have
- 7:14been just saying oh it's going to go to 150 maybe 200 K.
- 7:18I'm starting to feel like maybe these 500 KA $1,000,000
- 7:21predictions of Bitcoin aren't that ridiculous and it might be
- 7:25happening a lot quicker than we've ever thought.
- 7:27With that being said, you know, stay humble, stack sad, don't
- 7:30over leverage yourself because if we learned anything from the
- 7:33last bull market, or rather bear market, it could take a lot
- 7:37longer than and we ever thought it could to break 100K, break
- 7:40these milestone marks. So just make sure you're
- 7:43stacking stats, make sure the cash flows coming in, make sure
- 7:45you're saving in Bitcoin living below your means.
- 7:48And this is the, you know, the predictable path to succeed in
- 7:52Bitcoin. Anyways, Luke, think I've ranted
- 7:54enough. What's your thoughts on hearing,
- 7:57you know this lady on Charles Schwab Network talking about 500
- 8:02to $1,000,000 predictions? I mean, she's basically taking
- 8:05your job bro. She's taking all of our jobs,
- 8:08bro. We have a nine or $7 trillion
- 8:12asset manager right now talking about the fact that, yeah, not
- 8:16only is Bitcoin going to go to 500,000 or $1,000,000 per coin,
- 8:20but if you don't have a 10% allocation, you are going to get
- 8:24left behind. I mean, how crazy is it that
- 8:28we've come this far? Only two years ago the world was
- 8:31attacking Bitcoin. Two years ago, Bitcoin was a
- 8:33Ponzi scheme. Two years ago, FTX was blowing
- 8:37up, China was banning Bitcoin mining because Bitcoin mining
- 8:40was boiling the oceans and Bitcoin wasn't this green asset.
- 8:44Two years ago, the World Economic Forum and BlackRock
- 8:47were openly attacking Bitcoin, saying it's not ESG friendly.
- 8:51Everybody was talking about, you know, proof of stake and
- 8:54stakeholder capitalism. Everybody was saying proof of
- 8:57work is bad, Bitcoin is bad. And now two years later, every
- 9:03single asset manager worth his salt is now openly bull posting
- 9:09about Bitcoin. Like, not only is it Charles
- 9:12Schwab, a $7 trillion asset manager, the third largest asset
- 9:16manager in the entire world, but we have Larry Fink going on CNBC
- 9:21bull posting about Bitcoin. Michael Saylor got given the mic
- 9:25for like what, 6 minutes yesterday on CNBC and he was
- 9:29just waltzing around like they gave him the, they gave him a
- 9:31whole big, grand, big TV for him to show all of his slides and
- 9:37all of his charts on and they let Michael just control the D
- 9:40floor. So to say.
- 9:41That's what we say in Australia. Michael just got up there and
- 9:44just started absolutely spitting fire.
- 9:46So I think it's incredible how far we've come in only two
- 9:51years. Opti, are you kind of sensing
- 9:53that maybe just maybe things are a little bit different this
- 9:57cycle? Because I've got the tingles.
- 9:59I really do like last cycle, I was very loud and open about the
- 10:03fact that I think there's a 30% probability we could kind of
- 10:07break these cycles of diminishing returns and all of
- 10:11this stuff. And I was big on the whole super
- 10:14cycle train. I said, look, I think there's a
- 10:1630% that we're not going to stop at 100 or 200.
- 10:20We're actually going to go much higher.
- 10:21Now, again, everything's nothing's a certainty.
- 10:24Everything's a probability. That's why I like to assign
- 10:26probabilities to everything. But I've been pretty loud here
- 10:29for at least 6 to 12 months here saying, look, I think this
- 10:32cycle, instead of a 30% chance, we see some pretty crazy
- 10:35numbers. I'm more in the 5060% chance.
- 10:38It's down my base case that I expect to see a 500,600
- 10:43thousand, even $700,000 Bitcoin in the next 12 months.
- 10:47How about you Opti? Are you, how are you feeling
- 10:49about everything happening this cycle?
- 10:52Well, I mean, I hate being the Bitcoiner because I, I, I, you
- 10:56know, I hate being that the cliche Bitcoiner this time is
- 10:58different. But I think fundamentally we've
- 11:01seen throughout this year that this next cycle will be
- 11:03different. Like it is different.
- 11:05Do we know that the cycles are going to be different?
- 11:07Do we know that the, you know, cycle theory is is going to
- 11:10break this cycle? I think we might be jumping the
- 11:12gun a little bit on that. You know, I'm a little hesitant
- 11:15to say it's super cycle. This cycle.
- 11:17Maybe, you know, maybe that's four years, you know, six years
- 11:19from now. But this time is fundamentally
- 11:22different. Remember, in the past, we've
- 11:24always talked about the fact that institutional capital is
- 11:27here. Well, now we know for a fact
- 11:30they are here. And next is the nation state
- 11:33FOMO is playing out. And that is the crazy aspect of
- 11:36this game theory. And a lot of the skeptics out
- 11:38there talking about, you know, oh, you know, the wait, it was
- 11:42Peter Schiff himself. Like the, it's what would he
- 11:44say? He did a tweet yesterday
- 11:46something on like the lines of like, it's super ironic that the
- 11:50only way Bitcoin made it past 100K was because of, you know,
- 11:54state backing and President Trump coming out here talking
- 11:58and being pro Bitcoin when in reality a lot of his Bitcoiners
- 12:01are like, this was this was inevitable.
- 12:03It's going to happen anyways. But yes, you know, having up
- 12:05some favorable tailwinds does help us out.
- 12:08Like we get super bullish when when really big name start
- 12:11talking about Bitcoin because it spreads the Bitcoin signal
- 12:14outside of our echo chamber. So I don't have prediction odds
- 12:18here for you, Luke. I don't know what the
- 12:20predictions are, but you know, my gut is telling me that 250.
- 12:25It just I, I, you know, like I'm feeling that the pent up demand
- 12:28from 20/21, I think we're going to see an incredible blow off
- 12:32top next year. And that's the only metrics I
- 12:36really can give you guys is just like a gut instinct here.
- 12:38But Luke, you said something interesting and I always like to
- 12:41talk about this because Nico's very big on diminishing returns.
- 12:44I'm kind of thinking on the opposite side that, hey, maybe
- 12:47the diminishing returns isn't going to play out like it played
- 12:50out in the past. Obviously we only have about 3
- 12:53data points for this. So, you know, dive in a little
- 12:56more on the diminishing return. What's your thoughts on
- 12:58diminishing returns? Do you think we're going to kind
- 13:00of play out the same cycle, you know, theory that we've had in
- 13:04the past? Is it a lot of big numbers that
- 13:07as Bitcoin gets bigger, the price can't rise as much?
- 13:10Like what's your thinking on the the terms of diminishing?
- 13:13So I've got a lot of thinking on diminishing returns, but I think
- 13:17before we get to that, we actually have some breaking news
- 13:20happening right now of the we have pumped by more than $1000
- 13:25since we've been on this live stream and the chat is
- 13:28absolutely blowing up about it. Not only is the chat blowing up
- 13:32about my crazy hair, the chat is blowing up about $100,000
- 13:36Bitcoin. It's incredibly, it's incredible
- 13:39to see a lot of the regulars in the chat, but we are at $100,000
- 13:43Bitcoin so. OK, OK, Well, it's kind of
- 13:49funny. I was having a conversation with
- 13:51Big Sean last night and I, I, you know, I, I tweeted about it
- 13:55as well, what I saw with the 100K, you know, touching a
- 14:01Bitcoin and then going back to 90K.
- 14:03It really reminded me, and I think I might have said this on
- 14:05the show as well. It really reminded me of 2017
- 14:08when Bitcoin finally hit 10K and then it went down to 9 K
- 14:13literally the day after. And, and so, you know, just
- 14:16doing some quick maths here, if kind of the same, I don't know,
- 14:20framework like playbook is playing out in 2017.
- 14:23Bitcoin would run, you know, a day, you know, no, sorry, 1K
- 14:29like a day. And that was its fluctuations.
- 14:32And now we're kind of seeing something similar, but on like a
- 14:3410K level a day. And it kind of reminds me of
- 14:37what American Huddle's been saying in the past, that it took
- 14:40forever to Bitcoin for Bitcoin to break $100.
- 14:43And then it took forever for Bitcoin to break $1000.
- 14:46And of course, 10K and 100K. And as we go farther down the
- 14:51movement and the price increase of Bitcoin, it starts to
- 14:54fluctuate between, you know, 100 thousand $10,000 a day.
- 14:59And we forget and we don't even notice it because it's just so
- 15:02normal for us. So like $1000 a day
- 15:05fluctuations. Like what is this return for
- 15:08ants? Like is, is that really what
- 15:10we're here for? But with that being said, it's
- 15:12like, are we going to be seeing, you know, 1000 dollar $10,000 a
- 15:18day increases? And if that is the case, like
- 15:21how high can this run? Like literally how high can we
- 15:24run on this Luke? I don't know, but if you can
- 15:27share your screen, I want to show the people the big green
- 15:30dildo for the Bitcoin candle that's actually started while
- 15:34we've been on a live stream. This is the 30 minute chart
- 15:37Bitcoins pumped by. We're about to touch $101,000
- 15:41per coin, which is crazy. I reckon there's some
- 15:43psychopaths in the chat right now.
- 15:46Smash buying Bitcoin. Absolutely smash buying Bitcoin.
- 15:50But I want to go back to that question you asked me earlier,
- 15:52diminishing returns, because I again, I really don't think it's
- 15:58likely that this whole idea of diminishing returns, it plays
- 16:02out forever. So a lot of people are saying
- 16:04each cycle we're going to see smaller returns.
- 16:07And that argument, at face value, it sounds logical, right?
- 16:11They say. But as Bitcoin becomes a bigger
- 16:13market cap each four year cycle, we need an exponentially larger
- 16:18amount of capital to see a 50X or A20X.
- 16:22And that's true, right? In that 2013 cycle, we saw like
- 16:25100 X for Bitcoin, OK. And then in the 2017 cycle, we
- 16:31saw something smaller. It was more like a 20X.
- 16:34And then in the, what, 2021 cycle we saw something smaller.
- 16:37It was more like A4 or 5X. So everybody's saying we've gone
- 16:40from 100X to 20X to 5X. That means next cycle we're
- 16:46going to see something smaller than a 5X.
- 16:48We're going to see like a 3X maybe.
- 16:50Bitcoin tops out at $150,000 per coin and again, I just think
- 16:55it's really dangerous to extrapolate out the 1st 15 years
- 17:00of Bitcoin data into the future and say this is our model for
- 17:04the future because this is previously what the data showed
- 17:08us, OK? I think Bitcoin's fundamentally
- 17:10in a different era right now and I think when you really look at
- 17:13the total addressable market cap for Bitcoin and you actually
- 17:17think about OK, what could Bitcoin be worth?
- 17:19What should Bitcoin be worth? If the world wakes up to what
- 17:24Bitcoin is, then when you start looking at that target in the
- 17:27future, you start to realize diminishing returns makes zero
- 17:30sense. I don't think it makes any
- 17:32sense. OK, Bitcoin's a Bitcoin's got
- 17:35the biggest total addressable market cap in the world, right?
- 17:38So it's $900 trillion. Now, again, if you understand
- 17:43Bitcoin, you know that Bitcoin is the superior store of value
- 17:46asset. I mean, there's $300 trillion in
- 17:48real estate, hundreds of trillions of dollars in the debt
- 17:51market, over $100 trillion of Fiat currency that's literally
- 17:54melting away at 15% per year on average for the globe.
- 17:57Again, why would you hold a Fiat currency losing 15% per year
- 18:02when bitcoin's appreciating by 100% per year?
- 18:04That's a compounded annual growth rate.
- 18:06OK, again, this is just maths, but Bitcoin has a $900 trillion
- 18:09Tam. Even if you're ridiculously
- 18:12bearish, even if you wrongly believe the narrative, the
- 18:15Bitcoin is just digital gold. And it can, you know, it can,
- 18:19let's say it can capture fifty $100 trillion market cap.
- 18:23So $100 trillion. It sounds like a lot, but it's
- 18:25only like what, 10% of the globe store value assets?
- 18:29OK, well $100 trillion Bitcoin is like it's it's it's a very
- 18:33pricey Bitcoin. It's a $5,000,000 per coin
- 18:36Bitcoin. Now, if you say Bitcoin has a
- 18:39very conservative $5,000,000 Cam, and we're not even talking
- 18:44about multiplier effects right now, when you're actually taking
- 18:48to, you know, the equation that if you want or if the world
- 18:52wants to put $100 trillion into Bitcoin, you actually have to
- 18:56factor in the multiplier effect. So if you've got $100 trillion
- 18:59of hypothetical demand for Bitcoin, you actually need to
- 19:02use what is right now a 6X multiplier effect.
- 19:06So that means you've actually potentially got $600 trillion of
- 19:10hypothetical Tam coming onto Bitcoins market cap.
- 19:14But maybe let's stay a little bit conservative today.
- 19:16But when you start talking about Bitcoin should easily have a
- 19:19$5,000,000 Tam, for me, it doesn't make sense that we're
- 19:24going to see these cycles of diminishing returns where
- 19:26Bitcoin goes to 100 and 5225 three hundred 410.
- 19:31You know what I mean? Like when you actually math this
- 19:33stuff out for diminishing returns to happen, that means
- 19:36Bitcoin might take like 100 or 200 or 300 years to get to like
- 19:41$5,000,000 a coin. And I just don't think that's
- 19:44how technologies get adopted. Technologies get adopted in
- 19:47exponential waves. If you actually look at the
- 19:51adoption of three technologies that I we like to look at the
- 19:55Internet, the automobile and the smartphone, I think they
- 19:59actually give us a pretty interesting model for what I
- 20:02expect Bitcoin to be adopted, OK.
- 20:06And that is in an exponential wave.
- 20:08So if you take the average of those three technologies, it
- 20:12took them around 12 years to go from zero to 10% adoption.
- 20:18But then it took all three of those technologies the same
- 20:21amount of time to go from 10% adoption to 90% adoption another
- 20:2612 years. And I think it's pretty
- 20:28interesting that right now Bitcoin is what it's 14 years
- 20:32old again, what happens in the next 14 years, I don't know.
- 20:36But I've been calling 2020 the inflection point, the monetary
- 20:41inflection point. I've been calling it error #2 of
- 20:45Bitcoin. I believe 2020 is kind of when
- 20:47things changed. And I believe that we're kind of
- 20:50in that second era for Bitcoin where things are beginning to
- 20:53change exponentially. And we're seeing it all in the
- 20:56fundamentals. Like we're seeing this is the
- 20:58first cycle ever where coins have been leaving the exchanges
- 21:01consistently for four years. This is the first cycle ever
- 21:05where in the bear market, the price of Bitcoin crashed from
- 21:0869K to 15K. But the hash rate has gone up 7X
- 21:13since the bottom of that 2022 bear market.
- 21:16OK, since China banned Bitcoin mining, the hash rate might
- 21:19actually be up 10X by now. OK, So why?
- 21:22Why is the hash rate diverging from the price?
- 21:25Because this time is different. The nation states are mining
- 21:28Bitcoin again. We've been speculating about
- 21:30this for a long time. Opti you on simply Bitcoin for
- 21:34years and I've been speculating about it for years as well.
- 21:37Like nation states have been mining Bitcoin and now publicly
- 21:41we can see it, the Kingdom of Bhutan saying, yeah, you know
- 21:44what, 30% of our GDP is now plowed into Bitcoin.
- 21:48We've been openly mining it since 2019.
- 21:50We have Oman investing a billion dollars in a Bitcoin mining, El
- 21:53Salvador investing a billion dollars in a Bitcoin mining,
- 21:55Saudi Arabia, the UAE. We have all these countries all
- 21:58around the world publicly investing into Bitcoin mining.
- 22:02So again, privately you have to be stupid if you're a nation
- 22:05state and you're not mining Bitcoin right now.
- 22:08So I think like, I think I, I mean, I could talk about this
- 22:11shit for hours, Opti, but I, I feel like data is on our side.
- 22:15I, I do think the fundamentals are shifting and I, I think
- 22:18things are getting incredibly bullish and I, I think the
- 22:22possibility for us to have a really big cycle.
- 22:26I think it's been underrated in the space.
- 22:29Again, I don't know what's going to happen for certain, but I do
- 22:32think too many people have too much faith in these models and
- 22:36they're listening to spaghetti boy who's saying sell your
- 22:39Bitcoin at $150,000 a coin because of because of this model
- 22:44based on this old data that has to be consistently refit and
- 22:49changed all the time to give you such a high R-squared score.
- 22:52So anyway, the shrimps on the Barbie as the live chat is
- 22:56saying. What do you think?
- 22:59What's Bitcoin cooking on the Barbie for 20/20?
- 23:03A very, very bullish bullish bear, you know, fried bear for
- 23:07everyone out there. But before, before I move on and
- 23:10we got a whole show for you got jam packed a lot of bullish
- 23:12news. It's very nice having a fellow
- 23:15bull tart on the show. You know, Niko's been a bear on
- 23:17the show for way too long. He's he's too conservative.
- 23:20You know, he becomes a dad and he's all conservative now and
- 23:24then, you know, he's not bullish anymore.
- 23:26So guys, on Monday when Niko's back, we got to roast him for
- 23:29being a bear. Anyways, anyways, let's pay the
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- 24:37the Rumble guys. But if you're on Rumble, you
- 24:39already know you're probably the one winning these sets.
- 24:41So 500 sets, first come first serve.
- 24:44Let's go. Let's get into the show because
- 24:46we got a jam packed show for you guys.
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- 26:21All right, guys, I'm not going to do the Grandpa Paul meme
- 26:23here, you know the Grandpa Paul bit, but make sure you are
- 26:27backing up your seed phrase, guys.
- 26:28Yes, Bitcoin's at 100K, but you should be securing your seed
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- 27:00All right guys, let's get into the numbers.
- 27:02So I don't have Satoshi's chicken, but is this all time?
- 27:06No, it's not all time high. OK, well I'll still hit the
- 27:08horns anyways. The Bitcoin price is currently
- 27:11$100,840 per Bitcoin, which means the SAT per dollar, AKA
- 27:17how much Bitcoin you can buy for a single dollar, AKA what the
- 27:20dollar is worth in Bitcoin. It's currently at 992 sats.
- 27:25Actually I've been kind of trolling lately.
- 27:26I really like kind of renaming sats to Bitcoin to just kind of
- 27:29get that unit buys FOMO from the normie.
- 27:31So it's worth, you know, one Bitcoin.
- 27:36Hold on. One dollar can buy you 992
- 27:39Bitcoin. It's so bad but I love it.
- 27:41It's so atrocious, it's gross, but hey, let's think about the
- 27:44normies out here. No one wants to buy a bit of a
- 27:46Bitcoin. They want either a whole coin or
- 27:48any Bitcoin. So hey, I'm, I'm still work
- 27:51shopping it guys. I'm still work shopping it.
- 27:52Anyways, the current block height is 873,535 and we have
- 27:58reclaimed the $2 trillion market cap for Bitcoin and the Bitcoin
- 28:03versus gold market cap is at 10.92%.
- 28:06Guys, we still have you know 9X in us to be the gold market cap
- 28:11and you guys are bearish out there.
- 28:13Couldn't be me, can't relate. Anyways, the total percentage of
- 28:15Bitcoin that will ever be issued, I repeat, the total
- 28:18percentage of Bitcoin that will ever be issued is currently at
- 28:2094.24%. You might want to buy some and
- 28:23the current money supply current circulation of Bitcoin somewhere
- 28:26around 19.7 million Bitcoin currently circulating.
- 28:31All right, guys, I hate to do this to you, but but it has to
- 28:35be done. It's the numbers.
- 28:37And we're going to be talking about the ETFs for a little bit,
- 28:39so bear with me. But there has been a historic
- 28:42milestone for the ETFs. I talked about this a couple
- 28:45months ago about how much Bitcoin the ETFs are scooping
- 28:49up. So shouts out to Eric Balkunis,
- 28:51of course, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg.
- 28:54And he is, you know, absolutely shocked right now.
- 28:59So what's the news? the US spot ETFs have just
- 29:03passed Satoshi's holding of total Bitcoin held and now
- 29:07they're holding more than 1.1 million Bitcoin have been
- 29:11swallowed up by the Bitcoin ETFs more than anyone in the world.
- 29:16You know, no longer I think can we have the Satoshi fund and and
- 29:21I'll break it down for you guys in a little bit.
- 29:23And it's not even a year old guys like it's literally a baby.
- 29:26This is Eric Bokunis words. It's just mind blowing how much
- 29:30Bitcoin is being scooped up by the ETFs, which is kind of what
- 29:33me and Luke were saying in the beginning.
- 29:35Like institutional demand is here, they want your Bitcoin.
- 29:38Remember, we've been saying all year long like don't sell your
- 29:40Bitcoin, you're selling it to Michael Saylor.
- 29:42We kind of updated it to don't sell your Bitcoin, you're
- 29:45selling it to Larry Fink. Now it's becoming very clear,
- 29:48don't sell your Bitcoin. You are selling it to Wall
- 29:51Street. They want your Bitcoin.
- 29:53So you need to huddle on to that coin.
- 29:56So let's look at some of the Bitcoin held, the Bitcoin
- 29:58holders here, biggest holders in the world.
- 30:00Of course. Of course, the combined US spot
- 30:03ETFs hold 1,104,534 and they're scooping up incredible amounts
- 30:09of Bitcoin a day. Obviously Satoshi holds 1.1
- 30:12million. And then we got a couple
- 30:14exchanges, you know, Binance 633,000, MicroStrategy with
- 30:18400,000 Bitcoin, the US government with roughly around
- 30:21200,000, Chinese government with a little less 194,000 and then
- 30:26of course, other exchanges and companies with a couple 100,000
- 30:29under control. Now looking into this guys like
- 30:33you, I already told you the total spot Bitcoin ETFs have
- 30:37swallowed more Bitcoin than Satoshi himself.
- 30:40And you can kind of break it down.
- 30:41Well, who's the biggest holder? It is BlackRock with 521,000
- 30:45Bitcoin under their spot Bitcoin ETF, followed by of course,
- 30:50Grayscale and Fidelity. So you can tell there has been a
- 30:53clear winner here of what is the best performing ETF in the
- 30:57market, which is of course BlackRock.
- 31:00Like who is really surprised here.
- 31:01And I'm, I'm not surprised here. We all know BlackRock basically
- 31:04owns like, I don't know, every company in the world, every
- 31:08valuable company in the world, but there is some interesting
- 31:11maths here and it's getting kind of crazy.
- 31:14So shouts out to Thomas Farr of Hey apollo.com.
- 31:17And this math is just crazy. This stuff is just mind blowing.
- 31:21So he tweeted and he goes, when BlackRock holds 1,000,000
- 31:25Bitcoin obviously in their ETF and they push the price to $1
- 31:28million per coin, Black Rock will make $2.5 billion in fees
- 31:34every year forever. Absolutely mind blowing.
- 31:38Am IA fan of this? Not at all.
- 31:40But this is the math guys. And This is why they are so
- 31:43bullish on Bitcoin. This is why they're gobbling up
- 31:45so much Bitcoin is because they see the writing on the wall and
- 31:49you know, really relating this to the original clip of the
- 31:51show. If you're not buying Bitcoin,
- 31:53you're literally just not going to be able to compete in the
- 31:56world that we're headed to. What's the Carlos Mato tweet?
- 31:59Matos tweet? You know, we no longer live in a
- 32:02world we once did. Guys, it is a new paradigm.
- 32:05And if you don't have Bitcoin, you are being left in the dust
- 32:09again. You know, we're saying it's
- 32:11moved from 1:00 to 5:00 to 10% allocation.
- 32:14I would argue if you're of my age, a millennial or younger,
- 32:18you should be at least 50% plus live in your mom's basement.
- 32:22Stack as much Bitcoin as possible.
- 32:24Obviously, I'm, I'm kind of trolling a little bit.
- 32:27I'm it's, you know, it's jokes, but but realistically you should
- 32:31try to buy as much Bitcoin as humanly possible and still be
- 32:34able to pay your rent, you know, buy groceries, etcetera,
- 32:37etcetera, have a little good time and, you know, enjoy life a
- 32:40little bit, but you need to be stacking Bitcoin.
- 32:42And I think that signal is finally spreading to everyone
- 32:45out there that, hey, I need to add Bitcoin to My Portfolio or
- 32:50else I'm being left in the dust. I've been saying it all year.
- 32:54Basically, you know, Bitcoin is the fastest horse in the race,
- 32:57or actually I've been saying saying Bitcoin is the fastest
- 33:00race in the horse, saying it the wrong way, but you know what I'm
- 33:04saying? It's becoming very clear.
- 33:06There is a clear winner. There is winners and losers out
- 33:10there. And if you aren't saving in
- 33:12Bitcoin, if you don't have Bitcoin in your portfolio, then
- 33:15you're a loser. You need to add Bitcoin to your
- 33:19portfolio. And I think we're going to see
- 33:22some of the biggest wealthiest names and companies in the world
- 33:26get their Bitcoin allocation in 2025.
- 33:29And This is why, you know, Luke and I kind of keep saying that
- 33:32that this time feels different. So anyways, Luke, what's your
- 33:36thoughts on the ETF, you know, scooping up more than Satoshi.
- 33:40How does this make you feel? What?
- 33:41What's your thinking process behind this?
- 33:44Yeah, so I mean, from a big picture view, I'm always being
- 33:48very cautious and sceptical of the Bitcoin ETFs coming in.
- 33:52I the literally the day after BlackRock filed their Bitcoin
- 33:57spot ETF document way back in mid 2023.
- 34:01I did a thread that got a lot of attention the day after and I
- 34:05said, have a look at the wording buried on like page #21 of the
- 34:09filing where they said BlackRock openly said in the event of a
- 34:14hard fork, we have no obligation to actually choose to follow the
- 34:20most economic chain of Bitcoin. So obviously, like, I think
- 34:24there's a possibility in the future that we do see, you know,
- 34:28a attack on Bitcoin or maybe the ETF holding so much Bitcoin, it
- 34:33could be a bad thing. Maybe it's going to be
- 34:35nationalized by the government. Maybe it's going to be the new
- 34:386102 honeypot. Maybe black rocks even going to
- 34:41try to fork the chain and create this Glee green and clean
- 34:46version of Bitcoin. That's, you know, maybe even
- 34:49proof of stake or you know, it doesn't do proof of work because
- 34:52that's dirty and you know, it's not ESG.
- 34:55Again, I'm not saying any of this is a certainty, but I'm
- 34:58saying that there's I think a higher probability than most
- 35:01people that, you know, maybe the ETFs could be a bad thing in the
- 35:05future. Again, just tinfoil heading
- 35:07right here. You can think I'm crazy, but I I
- 35:10think there's two things to be cautious of with the ETF.
- 35:15From day one, I've always been cautious.
- 35:17So not your keys, not your keys. Just because Black Rock is the
- 35:21largest asset manager in the world doesn't mean they will not
- 35:24rug pull your Bitcoin in the future.
- 35:27Again, there are no certainties in life.
- 35:29You don't know what's going to happen right?
- 35:32But I think from a number go up price standpoint, it's
- 35:35incredibly bullish. How could it not be incredibly
- 35:37bullish? The world's largest asset
- 35:39manager with $10 trillion of asset under management is saying
- 35:44Bitcoin is going to digitize gold.
- 35:46Bitcoin is an international asset.
- 35:49Bitcoin is an asset you buy when you are fearful, like Larry Fink
- 35:53is saying Bitcoin's a risk off asset.
- 35:55Larry Fink and BlackRock are even published in reports where
- 35:59they are openly saying the optimal allocation for the past
- 36:03decade. It wasn't the 6040 portfolio, it
- 36:07wasn't even buying high risk tech stocks.
- 36:10It was actually being 84.9% allocated to Bitcoin and only
- 36:15put 15% of your other assets into the trash, into bonds and
- 36:19stocks and cash. You don't want to hold that the
- 36:22optimal allocation was 85% Bitcoin, right?
- 36:26Those are the research reports BlackRock is publishing.
- 36:30So obviously this is bullish. Obviously this is great for
- 36:32number go up. Obviously this is huge social
- 36:36signaling. Obviously, this DE risks Bitcoin
- 36:39for the masses when you have the world's largest asset manager
- 36:42come in and embrace and welcome Bitcoin.
- 36:44And obviously we're going to begin to see this competitive
- 36:47FOMO play out because like you were saying earlier, Opti, it
- 36:51starts with a, you know, 1% allocation and those guys
- 36:56saying, yeah, Bitcoins, OK, it's a diversification asset.
- 37:01But as Michael Saylor continues to say, if you have the winning
- 37:05trade or if you have the better thing, you don't diversify.
- 37:09You go all in on the better thing, OK?
- 37:13This is something that nobody understands, and This is why I
- 37:16think Bitcoin's going to be a lot more valuable than most
- 37:19people think, much quicker than most people think.
- 37:22Because when you have the winning thing, you don't do a 1%
- 37:26allocation, you don't do a 2% allocation.
- 37:29You put all your money in the better thing, OK?
- 37:32It's like Michael Saylor says. Do you build a boat that's 10%
- 37:37wooden, 10% steel? Do you, you know, build an
- 37:41airplane that's 50% aluminum and 50% wood?
- 37:45No, you don't diversify by building something that's
- 37:48supposed to float or fly with wood because it is inferior.
- 37:53I think it's the same thing with portfolio allocations.
- 37:56Why have 10% of your money in a melting ice cube?
- 37:59Why have 50% of your money on a stock brokerage platform that
- 38:03could freeze your assets just because you're told that
- 38:07diversification is a good thing? You have to buy stocks because
- 38:09that's the way the world has worked for the past 50 years.
- 38:13But nobody thinks, why have we had to diversify for the past 50
- 38:16years? Why has real estate been grossly
- 38:19monetized for the past 50 years? Because there was no solution to
- 38:23us going off the gold standard. Now we have the solution and
- 38:27it's only a matter of time before all of these big brain
- 38:30Wall Street gurus come to the realization that, hang on a
- 38:33minute, diversification makes no sense.
- 38:36A 1%, five percent, 10% allocation to Bitcoin makes no
- 38:41sense. We need a 100% allocation
- 38:45because this is the solution. You don't diversify into the
- 38:48solution. You put all your eggs in the
- 38:51winning basket and Bitcoin is that winning basket.
- 38:54And as we showed you guys in the clip in the beginning of today's
- 38:57live stream, we have somebody from Charles Schwab, $7 trillion
- 39:01asset manager, openly sane. Yeah.
- 39:04If you don't have at least a 10% allocation, what did she say?
- 39:07Opti, you are losing. Yeah, you're not.
- 39:10Being competitive, you're losing and you are literally not being
- 39:15competitive here. But actually I do.
- 39:17I guess I need to get, I got fact checked in real time by
- 39:19Luke. I said 25% was the Black Rock
- 39:22report. Sorry, I wasn't bullish enough.
- 39:24It was 85%. So here we are on that.
- 39:27I'd love to hear, but there is one thing I do kind of want to
- 39:30talk about. We are kind of going to the long
- 39:31super bullish today, but you know, the classic floodline of,
- 39:35oh, what happens if Satoshi sells his million Bitcoin?
- 39:39Well, now it looks like we're kind of, you know, like that's
- 39:42kind of being put to bed here. It's like the US spot Bitcoin
- 39:47ETFs now hold more Bitcoin than Satoshi.
- 39:50And so I think, you know, a classic trope in Bitcoin is that
- 39:54all of the floodlines that constantly get recycled 1 by one
- 39:58usually drop like Domino's. And, you know, we just keep
- 40:01proving that, hey, none of this matters really.
- 40:03Like bitcoins being adopted in real time and people are seeing
- 40:07the use of Bitcoin, you know, permissionless, censorship
- 40:10resistant money, you know, hard cap.
- 40:12This is starting to become a very viable solution for
- 40:17everyone in the world, and now they're starting to wake up to
- 40:19it. So hey, if you're being bearish.
- 40:23I don't know what you're doing. I don't know what you're looking
- 40:24at, but it's time to flip the script and get bullish.
- 40:28Anyways. Luke, you want to chime in?
- 40:29I saw you kind of trying to chime in there for a second.
- 40:32No, no, I'm I, I talk too much, my friend.
- 40:36OK. All right.
- 40:38Well, on that note, guys, if you are enjoying the show, we're
- 40:40only halfway through, make sure you smash the like button, not
- 40:43slash smash the like button comment, let us know if you're
- 40:46bullish and of course subscribe if you think we're giving you
- 40:49guys value. But we're only halfway through
- 40:51guys. We still have some more bullish
- 40:53stuff for you on today's show. I want to give a very special
- 40:57shout out to our sponsor Compass Mining.
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- 43:01completely open source connected with the envoy and and it's it's
- 43:06pretty much been the easiest hardware wallet I've used and I
- 43:08love it man Okay, anyways, we got some updates for you guys,
- 43:13boys and girls. It seems like we might have a
- 43:17very bullish administration coming in in the US and I know
- 43:22you guys have yelled at us all year.
- 43:24Like I'm sick of the what someone say in the chat
- 43:26yesterday, like I'm I'm sick of the Republican propaganda on the
- 43:29show. Well, sorry, boys.
- 43:31Hey, they're they're coming out and being super bullish on
- 43:34Bitcoin or, you know, crypto. And this is a good thing for our
- 43:38industry. If we could get four years of
- 43:40cover, there's no way they're going to be able to put Bitcoin
- 43:43back in the box. It it's going to take over the
- 43:46world. And as an American, hey, I want
- 43:48that to happen. I want America to be the Bitcoin
- 43:51hub of the world. We already are, you know, the
- 43:54leader in Silicon Valley out there.
- 43:55And I think it's it's only fitting Bitcoin is as American
- 43:58as apple pie. Anyways, What am I talking
- 44:00about? If you aren't following the news
- 44:02as closely as all of us Bitcoiners, or rather us here at
- 44:04Simple Bitcoin yesterday, Donald J Trump, the 47th President of
- 44:09the United States president-elect, just announce
- 44:13that David Sachs will be his quote, White House AI and
- 44:17Cryptozar. So I'm gonna break down some
- 44:20I'll breakdown David Sachs for you guys in a minute, but let's
- 44:23read this truth post social. So in this important role of
- 44:27White House AI and Cryptozar, David will guide policy for the
- 44:30administration in AI and cryptocurrency, 2 areas critical
- 44:35to the future of American competitiveness.
- 44:37David will focus on making America the clear global leader
- 44:41in both areas. He will safeguard free speech
- 44:43online and steer us away from big tech bias and censorship.
- 44:47He will work on a legal framework so the crypto industry
- 44:50has the clarity it has been asking for and can thrive in the
- 44:54US. David will also lead the
- 44:57Presidential Council of Advisors for Science and Technology.
- 45:00First of all, it is a little surreal.
- 45:03It's kind of crazy just hearing, you know, incoming president
- 45:06even acknowledged the Bitcoin industry.
- 45:08Obviously the Bitcoin pact, the lobbying that the Bitcoin
- 45:12foreigners did to get him elected, remember, is $135
- 45:15million. So obviously we're a big part of
- 45:18the lobbying base here. And as Kaiser always says, he
- 45:21who has the bitcoins make the rule.
- 45:23Well, let's just look into who David Sachs is and what does he
- 45:28say about Bitcoin. And we got a great clip here
- 45:31from Anthony Pompolano with David Sachs, and let's just hear
- 45:34it from his own words. What are your views on Bitcoin
- 45:37and how do you think of that asset given kind of the macro
- 45:40backdrop? Well, the, the thing that's
- 45:42interesting about Bitcoin, I've been interested in Bitcoin since
- 45:45I think I first bought it in 2012 maybe.
- 45:50And we, we, we invested in a number of, we're not a crypto
- 45:53investor, but we did express a thesis back in 2017, 2018 that
- 45:59we thought that crypto would graduate from being into being
- 46:03an, a institutional asset class, from being really more of a
- 46:06consumer retail phenomenon. And so we ended up investing in
- 46:10institutional custody through a company called Bitco and we also
- 46:13invested in multi, we're the C investor multi point Capital,
- 46:16which was a crypto focused hedge fund.
- 46:19We basically believe that, you know that as crypto matured into
- 46:22an asset class, you would need specialized fund managers of
- 46:25which we were not really, I'm a SAS investor.
- 46:28So but I'm like, but let's invest in these guys because
- 46:30they're focused on the problem. So we expressed a number of
- 46:33these views and it generally has worked out very well for us
- 46:37about any event. So I've been interested in
- 46:38Bitcoin for a while and I think the transformational part of
- 46:42Bitcoin is this idea that we could have non Fiat money,
- 46:45right? We just as we're talking about
- 46:47with the Fed, there is a huge risk of currency debasement when
- 46:52the government is in control and particularly when you have the
- 46:54world's reserve currency. There's this such an enormous
- 46:57temptation to print money to finance your budget and to rack
- 47:02up loans that become unpayable. We're at what, like 130% of GDP
- 47:08now? We own, we owe, so we owe an
- 47:11amount of money greater than the size of our entire economy or
- 47:14our economic output. That sounds very hard to repay
- 47:17to me. So the temptation will
- 47:19eventually be to monetize the debt away, basically to debase
- 47:23the currency to pay for this debt.
- 47:25That's always been a risk throughout history.
- 47:27And now what Bitcoin offers is a different kind of currency where
- 47:34it's not backed by a government, it's backed by math, it's backed
- 47:37by encryption. And so you don't have to trust
- 47:40the government that there will only be 21 million Bitcoin.
- 47:44It's in the it's in the code. And so you just have to trust
- 47:49that that the that the Bitcoin effectually won't be cracked.
- 47:53You know, you just have to believe that the system is
- 47:56secure. And I think a lot of people
- 47:59might over time, gradually think that's a better form of money.
- 48:03Two other questions OK guys, I don't know about you, but I'm
- 48:08I'm kind of OK with this pick. Like I'm I don't really have too
- 48:12much bad stuff to say though we do kind of have to acknowledge,
- 48:16you know, he is kind of part of the PayPal mafia.
- 48:19That could be some concerns for people.
- 48:21He is on the All In podcast, you know, with Chamath and Jason who
- 48:25they are Bitcoiners, you know, you could argue maybe they're a
- 48:29little bit of shit coiners, but I think this is good signal that
- 48:33we're going to see at least some very favorable regulation and
- 48:37clarity in regards to Bitcoin. Of course, you know, David Sacks
- 48:40runs one of the oldest Bitcoin and crypto funds and looking
- 48:44into, you know, some of the portfolios of currently he's at
- 48:46Craft Ventures. You can see some of the
- 48:48companies that he's invested in. And obviously there's a lot of
- 48:52things that aren't Bitcoin on this list, but there is some
- 48:55very notable Bitcoin companies that they have, you know, gave
- 48:59seed capital to obviously Bitgo, you guys know Bitgo bitwise as
- 49:04well. He kind of mentioned that
- 49:06institutional management of Bitcoin and crypto as well, and
- 49:10he said multi coin capital as well.
- 49:12So and then a folds in here guys.
- 49:14So this guy knows what's going on in the Bitcoin space.
- 49:18I'm you know, he's been buying since 2013.
- 49:21I'm going to argue that I think this is going to be very bullish
- 49:25for the Bitcoin industry or even the shit coin industry at large.
- 49:28I think it's going to be a lot of good clarity.
- 49:30He's obviously obviously going to be giving Trump some some
- 49:33good insights on the market. Yes, we've been saying it for a
- 49:37while. We might be getting unleashed,
- 49:40you know, the shit coin tsunami on all of this regulation as
- 49:43well, which is something we'll we'll keep watching.
- 49:46But you add David Sachs as the new cryptos are, which is a new
- 49:50role. And you you could argue that
- 49:51it's like a, you know, fake role, but the we've seen these
- 49:54kind of roles happen for presidents in the past.
- 49:57But you add that with Paul Atkins as a new SEC head.
- 50:01And again, this is going to be super bullish for Bitcoin.
- 50:04And I don't know about you guys, but I'd, I'd much rather have
- 50:07some favorable tailwinds in regards to Bitcoin than the last
- 50:11four years that we've seen under the Biden administration with
- 50:13Operation Choke point 2.0 and them trying to stifle and stop
- 50:18the adoption of Bitcoin. So again, this is a very bullish
- 50:21show today, not only price predictions, but at least we're
- 50:24seeing in the US that, you know, speculatively and optimistically
- 50:29speaking, we should see very favorable laws and regulations
- 50:33around Bitcoin. Obviously, my point of view is I
- 50:36just want them to get out of the way, man, if they could get out
- 50:38of the way of, of Bitcoin and Bitcoin companies and hopefully
- 50:41bring back some of the Bitcoin companies and entrepreneurs that
- 50:44have left the last four years. This is going to be, you know, a
- 50:48new renaissance for Bitcoin in the US.
- 50:50And I'm I'm tentatively excited for what what's going to happen
- 50:53in 2025 with these roles around Bitcoin.
- 50:56You can argue there's a lot, a lot of other problems, but hey,
- 51:00at least in regards to Bitcoin, it looks like we are going to
- 51:04have a bullish and clear Rd. for 2025.
- 51:08Anyways. Luke, what's your thoughts on
- 51:09David Sacks becoming the new AI and Cryptozar for President
- 51:14Donald J Trump? My thoughts more broadly are
- 51:17pretty much summarized by Rex owner's 72 hour as comment in
- 51:22the chat. We are no longer just seeing
- 51:24tailwinds for Bitcoin. We are seeing tail hurricanes,
- 51:28baby. I'm shocked that all of the
- 51:30bullish things that are happening are happening.
- 51:33I'm shocked that we're getting somebody like David Sachs
- 51:37appointed by Donald Trump. Yes, he's not a Bitcoin maxi.
- 51:41Yes, I wish he was more bullish on that podcast, the All In
- 51:45podcast. Maybe he was like able to rein
- 51:47in some of his shit coining friends and some of the trash
- 51:50that they do say on that very popular podcast.
- 51:54But I, I think overall, he's certainly better than a lot of
- 51:57the other selections that were, let's just say, in previous
- 52:01governments in the USI don't even want to name names.
- 52:03I mean, you guys know the kind of people that we are electing
- 52:07as leaders in America. If you or the Western world in
- 52:11general, if you have a look at the health ministers all around
- 52:13the world, they certainly don't look healthy.
- 52:16And if you look at the let's, I'm going to be really careful
- 52:19what I say here, but let's just say some of the health
- 52:21officials, they were not healthy people and some of the things
- 52:24they were saying we're not healthy.
- 52:26So I think that we're beginning to see people elected into the
- 52:30Trump government that actually understand not only economic
- 52:34reality, but just reality as it stands in the world, in other
- 52:40industries. We have RFK being elected.
- 52:43And again, he is talking about certain things to do with
- 52:47health. But if you just look at the guy,
- 52:49I'm more likely to listen to something he says because you
- 52:53look at him at age 60, he's in better shape than me.
- 52:56The dude's absolutely jacked, OK?
- 52:59He clearly looks after his health.
- 53:01And now we have business leaders and people who have actually
- 53:04built companies and understand the fact that U.S. debt is
- 53:08unsustainable. They're now being elected and
- 53:11put into positions of power. We have as much as it's a little
- 53:15bit of a mean, but we have doged the Department of Government
- 53:19efficiency. Nobody has asked the government
- 53:21to be efficient. Nobody in power has even
- 53:24mentioned the fact that maybe the government should stop
- 53:27spending money and be more efficient for 100 years.
- 53:30OK, nobody's given a shit about it.
- 53:32So yes, he's not the best candidate for that position, but
- 53:36I think he's better than what we've had.
- 53:39What do you think of? Yeah, yeah.
- 53:42I mean, I'm a bit conflicted because I think everyone knows
- 53:46me and I don't trust politicians at all.
- 53:49Very clear, very obviously I think at this point.
- 53:52But again, just hearing them talking.
- 53:54Actually, someone said a great comment in here, something on
- 53:58the line. Let me see if I can find it real
- 53:59quick before I just give you guys some blank, blank air here
- 54:06all right shout out the keys. He goes all I heard was quote a
- 54:09better form of money and you can't unthink that stuff and I
- 54:13think that is kind of the signal here that we're seeing you know
- 54:17yes, he is AVC capitalist yes, he kind of has endorsed some
- 54:20shit coins out there, but I mean in that clip with pomp.
- 54:24I I think he sounds like a bitcoiner.
- 54:26I think anyone that understands Bitcoin and understands Fiat is
- 54:30understanding the same. Problem is they are printing way
- 54:32too much money. And what does that do for you
- 54:34guys out there? It is debasing your your
- 54:36holdings. It's making you poorer.
- 54:38And the more money they print, the poorer we all get.
- 54:42And yes, some government efficiency would be great.
- 54:45Who wouldn't like to see some efficiency coming out of the
- 54:47government? But as the classic trope goes,
- 54:51you know, the scariest couple of words you can hear is I'm from
- 54:53the government and I'm here to help you.
- 54:55I don't think anyone trusts the government to be efficient at
- 54:57all, But hopefully we do see some sort of efficiency coming
- 55:02out of this. Again, my my baseline here is
- 55:04just can you guys get out of the way of bitcoins potential and
- 55:09Bitcoin entrepreneurs. You know, the free market and
- 55:12entrepreneurs are the one that really Dr. innovation forward
- 55:15and what we've seen the last, you know, 15 years, but
- 55:18specifically the last four years, them standing in our way
- 55:22and literally hurting the population out there, not only
- 55:25in the US but globally. Because of course, I say it all
- 55:28the time, the US kind of exports two things.
- 55:30It's our debt, AKA our currency and our culture.
- 55:33So whatever the US does, everyone starts to follow suit.
- 55:37And we've seen this play out very clearly in regards to Trump
- 55:40announcing a strategic stockpile or reserve for Bitcoin.
- 55:44Now everyone has to take these conversations seriously.
- 55:46So the game theory is playing out.
- 55:49I'm pretty excited to see what happens in 2025.
- 55:52Obviously, we'll be here. You know, me, I, I, I only pull
- 55:56my punches to not get this banned on YouTube, but you know,
- 55:59I'm very skeptical. So we'll be covering this
- 56:01throughout the year and hopefully we do see some very
- 56:04favorable stuff come down the pipeline.
- 56:06And it just means, you know, number go up and bitcoin's going
- 56:10to be proliferated around the world.
- 56:12And that's what we're here for. We want the as many people as
- 56:16possible holding Bitcoin in self custody.
- 56:19So if we see anything that does the opposite, no, we will be
- 56:23vocal about it. So man, I'm I'm tentatively
- 56:26bullish. I'm tentatively optimistic about
- 56:28this and it's looking like in regards to Bitcoin, the Trump
- 56:33administration might be following through on its
- 56:35promises. So we'll see what happens.
- 56:37Day one. We'll see if you know, Ross is
- 56:39free Day one, we'll see how far they can push the strategic
- 56:43Bitcoin stockpile and we'll see the aftermath of that.
- 56:46But man, I'm I'm starting to get the tingle, Luke.
- 56:49I'm starting to get a tingle. But let's get into the culture
- 56:52because I told Luke, I'm just going to give you time to be
- 56:55stupidly bullish. Everyone knows Luke is a bull
- 56:58tard every single time. So if you thought the beginning
- 57:02was bullish, I think the rest of the show is going to be even
- 57:05more bullish. Let's go.
- 57:08I want to give a shout out to our sponsor Hive Digital
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- 57:57All right, boys and girls, of course, sorry we got to pay the
- 58:00bills. Not sorry, but make sure you go
- 58:03to bit block Boom on April 3rd through the 6th 2025 in Dallas.
- 58:09It's a small conference. You could literally hang out
- 58:11with all the cool bitcoiners. Usually this is where Lobbycon
- 58:15was created at. You just just show up, man.
- 58:18Just show up, buy a ticket, hang out, hang out in the pool with
- 58:21all your favorite bitcoiners. A true Bitcoin conference and of
- 58:24course, use the promo code BBB 21 on all lowercase again,
- 58:29lowercase triple B 21 and you can get $100 off on your ticket.
- 58:35So Luke, thanks for coming on. He's off.
- 58:39He's off air for a moment. But man, Luke, we've had yeah,
- 58:44got to get the monster in. I don't know how we can top the
- 58:47bullishness on this, but I'm sure you will find a way.
- 58:51And you know, I, I actually, I actually learned this the other
- 58:53day when we had Brandon from Green Candle Investments on.
- 58:56So I think I want to start with this question, which is I, I
- 59:00asked Brandon the same one. It's what is the big idea that
- 59:03you think everyone is missing right now?
- 59:05And I think we've covered a lot on the show.
- 59:07So if you want to rehash some things, that's fine.
- 59:09But what in your opinion is the big idea that is going to take
- 59:13the world by storm And you can't just say Bitcoin We, you got to
- 59:16give them some alpha here. So what's the big idea you want
- 59:19to share with everyone today, Luke?
- 59:21The big idea is nobody is paying attention to the underlying
- 59:26fundamentals and nobody understands how technologies get
- 59:29adopted in exponential waves. And Bitcoin's going to be
- 59:33adopted exponentially, and it's going to shock people and the
- 59:36numbers we're going to see aren't going to make any sense.
- 59:38And I just really think the Bitcoin scarcity, it's going to
- 59:42lead to some pretty crazy things, OK?
- 59:44Like Bitcoin, like we said earlier, it has a $900 trillion
- 59:47Tam. I genuinely think it's going to
- 59:49be capturing half of the world's store value assets.
- 59:52And I think it's going to happen much quicker than most people
- 59:54think. And when you really start to run
- 59:56the numbers and you're talking about $500 trillion of
- 59:59hypothetical demand for Bitcoin with a 6X multiplier effect
- 1:00:03where it is today and that multiplier effects will become
- 1:00:07more. Become higher as Bitcoin is
- 1:00:11gobbled up and accumulated and hoarded by people like Michael
- 1:00:15Saylor who are going to hold it for 100 years.
- 1:00:17That multiplier effect is going to rise and shit's just going to
- 1:00:20get wild. Numbers aren't going to make
- 1:00:22sense. We're not talking about 5-10,
- 1:00:24twenty, $100 million per Bitcoin.
- 1:00:27We're talking about numbers much higher, OK.
- 1:00:29And again, all of the numbers that I like to talk about, I
- 1:00:32like to kind of say, look, this is today's purchasing power.
- 1:00:36When I say Bitcoin will easily be worth $100 million a coin
- 1:00:39much quicker than you think, I'm saying it's going to buy you 10
- 1:00:44Malibu beach houses on the coast front in California.
- 1:00:47OK, That's the purchasing power I expect one of those puppies in
- 1:00:52California goes for about 10 million.
- 1:00:53This is like prime real estate, some of the best real estate you
- 1:00:56can get in the world. And I won't be partying with a
- 1:00:59significant amount of my Bitcoin until I can, you know, buy ten
- 1:01:02of those with a Bitcoin. OK.
- 1:01:04That's I believe the end game for where Bitcoin is.
- 1:01:07And I think people just aren't paying attention.
- 1:01:09Not only I think firstly they don't understand money is a
- 1:01:12winner taker goal game. So just this idea of Bitcoin
- 1:01:17being just another asset and it just stopping at 50 or $100
- 1:01:20trillion per coin. Just stupid idea.
- 1:01:24CK snarks says it the best. It's actually the least likely
- 1:01:27outcome that Bitcoin is just digital gold and it's just that
- 1:01:31500 KA $1,000,000 it's $2,000,000 and it's just this
- 1:01:35thing that's a one percent 2% allocation.
- 1:01:38CK has been screaming about this for years and I have as well.
- 1:01:41Like it is the least likely outcome.
- 1:01:43Bitcoin either captures the large majority of that $900
- 1:01:48trillion of assets in the world, or it goes to 0 and it dies.
- 1:01:52Bitcoin's a binary bet, OK? And it being at 500K or a
- 1:01:56million or 2 million, all of a sudden that unlocks a completely
- 1:02:01new realm of capital that can now allocate to Bitcoin in size.
- 1:02:06OK, Two years ago, Microsoft couldn't even consider the
- 1:02:09possibility of putting some of their $100 billion of cash into
- 1:02:13Bitcoin when it was like a 200, three, $100 billion asset.
- 1:02:17They would have moved the market too much.
- 1:02:19But now the bitcoin's a $2 trillion asset and on the way to
- 1:02:22being a 5-10 trillion dollar asset in the next 12 months, we
- 1:02:26see these new pools of capital unlocked.
- 1:02:28So I think that's the big idea. Bitcoin is a binary bet and
- 1:02:32technologies get adopted in exponential waves.
- 1:02:35Now a related note is I believe everybody's measuring Bitcoin
- 1:02:41adoption wrong. So this most when most people
- 1:02:45say, OK, Luke, but you say we're in this like second error of
- 1:02:47Bitcoin. You say that things are starting
- 1:02:49to go exponential, but on an S curve, things don't start going
- 1:02:53exponential until you hit that 10% adoption rate.
- 1:02:56And people will correctly say adoption, the enormous world is
- 1:03:01like 1%, right? But this is because people are
- 1:03:04measuring adoption wrong. People are looking at Bitcoin
- 1:03:07being used as a medium exchange as adoption.
- 1:03:10They're saying how many of my friends and family members go
- 1:03:14down to their local store and buy a coffee or a monster with
- 1:03:17Bitcoin? And that is one form of
- 1:03:20adoption. And that is a very low form of
- 1:03:23adoption. Again, that's probably less than
- 1:03:251% globally, right? Even in El Salvador, maybe 10 or
- 1:03:2920% of the shops in Bitcoin country accepting Bitcoin as a
- 1:03:34medium exchange. But that's the wrong way to
- 1:03:37measure adoption, I believe. I believe there's two adoption
- 1:03:41curves that you need to be paying attention to in Bitcoin.
- 1:03:44The 1st is obviously medium exchange, how many people are
- 1:03:46buying coffee with Bitcoin? But then there's the second one
- 1:03:49that I think is more impactful for price, OK, and that is how
- 1:03:54many people are storing their value in Bitcoin.
- 1:03:58But more importantly, this is the monetization adoption curve
- 1:04:02of Bitcoin. What percentage of the people
- 1:04:05who control the majority of that $900 trillion of money in the
- 1:04:09world are adopting Bitcoin? This is the far more important
- 1:04:13one because this is Bitcoins, Tam store value asset.
- 1:04:18OK, Now what percentage of those people are buying Bitcoin?
- 1:04:22Let me tell you, it's higher than 1%.
- 1:04:24And these are the people who matter, the people who control
- 1:04:27the $900 trillion. They're the people you should be
- 1:04:30paying attention to. And this is the big idea.
- 1:04:33Nobody's watching the adoption rates that we see across nation
- 1:04:38states, sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, corporations.
- 1:04:43They are the people who matter. They are the people who in
- 1:04:47Michael Saylor's case, own 2% of the Bitcoin supply.
- 1:04:51There's 2 1/2 thousand billionaires and one billionaire
- 1:04:55already owns 2% of the Bitcoin supply.
- 1:04:58There's 58,000 public companies. One public company is squatting
- 1:05:02on 2% of the supply. OK, just look at the world's
- 1:05:06largest asset managers. BlackRock, the beginning of
- 1:05:08today's show, we're talking about Charles Schwab, Fidelity,
- 1:05:12Goldman Sachs. If you look at the top ten
- 1:05:14largest asset managers around the world, like 8 of them are
- 1:05:18like bullish on Bitcoin in a really big way.
- 1:05:22OK, so what's that 80% adoption? You, you, we are seeing 80%
- 1:05:26adoption in the, in the industry that matters, in the realm that
- 1:05:31matters, the world's largest asset managers.
- 1:05:33What about sovereign wealth funds?
- 1:05:355 out of the 10 largest sovereign wealth funds are also
- 1:05:38buying Bitcoin. Qatar, you know, the UAE has two
- 1:05:44really big sovereign wealth funds.
- 1:05:46There's five of them out of 10. What about pension funds?
- 1:05:51Some of the world's largest pension funds are buying
- 1:05:53Bitcoin. Japan, the world's largest
- 1:05:55pension fund with a $1.7 trillion pension fund.
- 1:05:59They came out a couple of months ago and they said, yeah, you
- 1:06:01know what? We are investigating Bitcoin for
- 1:06:04diversification strategies to hedge against the risk of the
- 1:06:07Japanese. Yeah, this is coming from the
- 1:06:09world's largest pension fund in Japan, saying we don't want to
- 1:06:13hold our own currency. It's a shit coin.
- 1:06:15We're looking at Bitcoin and gold as diversifications.
- 1:06:19So again, I think if you, I believe the big idea is
- 1:06:23everybody's paying too much attention to medium exchange
- 1:06:27adoption and they're not paying attention to the hedge funds
- 1:06:30that control $5 trillion worth of assets.
- 1:06:34OK, of the 25 largest hedge funds around the world, 60% of
- 1:06:40them own Bitcoin. 16 of the top 25 largest hedge funds in the
- 1:06:45world own Bitcoin. And 47% of all of the hedge
- 1:06:49funds, again, there's 15,000 hedge funds own Bitcoin.
- 1:06:53OK, these are the guys who matter.
- 1:06:55The hedge fund is a $5 trillion industry.
- 1:06:58Pay attention to that. Sovereign wealth funds control
- 1:07:01$50 trillion of capital. 50% of the largest sovereign wealth
- 1:07:05funds own Bitcoin. 50% of the option.
- 1:07:07What about the world's largest asset managers?
- 1:07:1010s of trillions of dollars. Pay attention to these guys, not
- 1:07:15your mom or your dad or Auntie Jane or Bob, your uncle who has
- 1:07:19$100 net worth and they're not using Bitcoin because they're
- 1:07:24too smart. OK.
- 1:07:26Technologies are never adopted or driven by the masses.
- 1:07:30The masses do not matter. It's the visionaries, Henry Ford
- 1:07:34said in the early 1900s. If I had of asked the everyday
- 1:07:38person what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.
- 1:07:43They can't think outside of the current paradigm and think maybe
- 1:07:46I'm going to invent an automobile or even when they see
- 1:07:48the automobile, they think odds boiling the oceans, it's dirty,
- 1:07:52it's odd it's so dangerous right again.
- 1:07:55So the big idea is people are paying attention to the wrong
- 1:08:00data and right now we talked about it earlier in the show the
- 1:08:03Bitcoin ETFs own 1,000,000 coins in a year.
- 1:08:07Public companies hold 500,000 Bitcoin and a lot of that buying
- 1:08:11has been in the past 12 to 18 months.
- 1:08:14If you simply extrapolate those trends out with not a lot of
- 1:08:19Bitcoin on exchanges in four years time, baby, I actually
- 1:08:22think the exchange is going to be drained in four years time.
- 1:08:25We've seen over a million Bitcoin leave the exchanges
- 1:08:29since 2020. Again, 20/20/2020 was that
- 1:08:32inflection point where the first time in Bitcoin's life coins
- 1:08:35started actually leaving the exchanges again.
- 1:08:38Think about how significant that is.
- 1:08:39The 12 years between 2008 and 2020, the coins or the number of
- 1:08:43Bitcoin on exchanges only grew. That's because people didn't
- 1:08:46understand Bitcoin. That's because the big boys
- 1:08:49weren't saying, hang on a minute, Bitcoin's an asset.
- 1:08:51You buy, you take off the exchanges and you never sell for
- 1:08:54100 years, like Michael Saylor says.
- 1:08:57But for the past four, nearly five years now, we've seen that
- 1:09:00trend change. We've seen 35% of all the
- 1:09:02available Bitcoin disappear off the exchanges and they're just
- 1:09:06moving to the wallets of people who I'm not selling their
- 1:09:10Bitcoin. Long term holders.
- 1:09:11The amount of Bitcoin held by long term holders is at all time
- 1:09:14high. That was a long rant.
- 1:09:16I do this a. Lot, a lot to unpack there.
- 1:09:18I don't, I don't know where to go from there, man, but I
- 1:09:21absolutely hold on. Absolutely love it.
- 1:09:25That was a, the great, great summer summation of what the big
- 1:09:29idea is. And man, I really like that
- 1:09:31metric because I did this meme a while ago.
- 1:09:34I, I can't find it on my Twitter, but I, I tried to, you
- 1:09:38know, 65 IQ explain the adoption curve and what is going on with
- 1:09:43Bitcoin. And I like transpose the Bitcoin
- 1:09:46price over like an X&Y chart. And it really was like, you
- 1:09:52know, the X line was adoption of, you know, everyday people,
- 1:09:58how many people are holding Bitcoin and the why was just the
- 1:10:02conviction levels of these high net worth individuals.
- 1:10:05And if you put, you know, you transpose the Bitcoin price
- 1:10:08above it. And I think that really starts
- 1:10:10to make sense to people of like what is actually going on.
- 1:10:13Obviously, we know as Bitcoin grows and old seller or old
- 1:10:17buyers become new sellers, new people start to enter the market
- 1:10:21and that's the distribution level of Bitcoin.
- 1:10:23But the thing and that really takes the Bitcoin price up is
- 1:10:26these really rich people with high conviction.
- 1:10:28And I think you, yeah, I think you did a very great, great
- 1:10:32little, you know, summary of what's going on here, Luke.
- 1:10:35But I do want to maybe nitpick a little here cuz you did say
- 1:10:40there's not going to be any Bitcoin on exchanges in four
- 1:10:43years. But we all know that, hey, they
- 1:10:46just got to give us a good price to, you know, sell this Bitcoin.
- 1:10:49So Bitcoin will kind of, you know, get back to and you know,
- 1:10:54on the exchanges because hey, old, old buyers are going to
- 1:10:57want to lock in some profits. But there was a number that you
- 1:11:00kind of triggered in my mind you considering how much Bitcoin the
- 1:11:04spot Bitcoin ETFs are are are scooping up right now.
- 1:11:08I saw a number and it said something on the lines of if the
- 1:11:11Bitcoin price doesn't double or triple or quadruple within the
- 1:11:15next couple of years, then Larry think in the spot Bitcoin ETF.
- 1:11:19You know, company and all the people out there like the the
- 1:11:23ilk of Street, they can buy another million Bitcoin in about
- 1:11:26a year or so. So I don't know about you guys,
- 1:11:29but it seems like the Bitcoin price has to start pumping.
- 1:11:33It seems like it has to go up just to kind of maintain the
- 1:11:37economics that we've seen in Bitcoin play out for a little
- 1:11:40while. So I don't know man, Luke, I'm
- 1:11:43starting to feel a little bullish, more bullish than usual
- 1:11:46today. So I don't know you want to add
- 1:11:48a little more on that because I do have some other topics here
- 1:11:51that I know you wanted to talk about.
- 1:11:53Yeah, I mean just quickly on that one.
- 1:11:54The big idea is the supply suffocation is going to happen,
- 1:11:59you know, gradually then suddenly.
- 1:12:01And I think like a lot of people had the wrong idea of the supply
- 1:12:05suffocation. I don't think coins leaving the
- 1:12:07exchanges over the next two months means price has to go up
- 1:12:11for me. I've always said that's the
- 1:12:13reason why I'm so focus on watching the number of Bitcoin
- 1:12:17on exchanges is because when that hits zero, that is when we
- 1:12:20find out who is swimming naked. And that is when we find out
- 1:12:24which exchanges have been selling paper Bitcoin.
- 1:12:26Because when there is 0 Bitcoin on exchanges publicly, everybody
- 1:12:29can see that on Twitter and they're posting the charts and
- 1:12:32they're trying to withdraw Bitcoin off Coinbase.
- 1:12:34And Coinbase is saying, yeah, you know what might take a week
- 1:12:37or two weeks or a month? We know that they're pissing on
- 1:12:40our shoulders and telling us it's raining, OK?
- 1:12:43We know that they're lying to us and that's when the real price
- 1:12:47of Bitcoin, it's not 200,300 thousand, it's much, much
- 1:12:51higher. So that's why I'm so interested
- 1:12:53in the exchanges and yeah, I got no, I that's the big the big
- 1:12:57idea is people aren't thinking about what does it look like if
- 1:13:00there are no Bitcoin on exchanges.
- 1:13:02And that's kind of where we start rapidly approaching.
- 1:13:06Bitcoins tan much quicker than most people think.
- 1:13:08Yeah, Tam, it's total addressable market guys for you
- 1:13:11guys not in the know. Anyways, Luke, you know, all I
- 1:13:14heard was all your models are destroyed and you did throw a
- 1:13:20little jab earlier on the show. So, and I know you wanted to
- 1:13:26talk about it and this is all the rage right now is the power
- 1:13:30law. So I don't know, I know you
- 1:13:32wanted to hit this. You What's your thoughts on the
- 1:13:34power law? Yeah, the power law is gonna
- 1:13:37break. Go.
- 1:13:40Power law is gonna be completely destroyed.
- 1:13:44Again, no disrespect to Giovanni.
- 1:13:46I love the fact that he's trying to contribute to the Bitcoin
- 1:13:48space doing work, You know, I mean, I love anybody who has
- 1:13:53contributions. So I don't want to make it sound
- 1:13:55like I'm attacking the person. I'm just attacking the idea.
- 1:13:58And I think the idea of extrapolating the 1st 15 years
- 1:14:02of Bitcoin data into the future, where for the 1st 12 years of
- 1:14:05Bitcoin's life, 99.9% of the people who mattered weren't
- 1:14:10buying Bitcoin. OK, 99.9% of people who are
- 1:14:15buying Bitcoin pre 2020 were retail.
- 1:14:18This was like and how much money does retail control in the
- 1:14:21world? How much money out of that 900
- 1:14:23trillion total addressable market cap does retail control?
- 1:14:282 trillion, three trillion, 10 trillion Max 20 trillion.
- 1:14:32Retail doesn't matter. The masses don't matter.
- 1:14:36And these cycles and these models that we saw play out when
- 1:14:42retail was dominating the market, yes, all humans are the
- 1:14:46same, but what retail does is different to what smart money
- 1:14:51does. OK?
- 1:14:52Smart money isn't going to disappear from Bitcoin for two
- 1:14:56years when the price goes down 20%.
- 1:14:59That's why I believe we had two year long bear markets.
- 1:15:02And that's because why 99.9% of the people buying Bitcoin pre
- 1:15:082020, they were retail money. OK, so everybody's taking what I
- 1:15:13believe is faulty data free 2020, and they're saying this is
- 1:15:17exactly how BlackRock and Michael Saylor are going to
- 1:15:21behave. Michael Saylor is going to
- 1:15:23behave the same way that retail did.
- 1:15:25And they're also assuming that they have the same amount of
- 1:15:28capital. They're also saying that retail
- 1:15:31has the same ability to move the market that Michael Saylor does,
- 1:15:34and that's not true. In the past two weeks, Michael
- 1:15:37Saylor has bought 130,000 Bitcoin.
- 1:15:40That's 300 days of new supply being bought by one person.
- 1:15:46So I think as Richard Jones in the chat says, Godzilla is
- 1:15:50coming, all of your models will be destroyed, completely
- 1:15:53devastated. Bitcoin goes to the moon.
- 1:15:56And it's all because of this billionaire FOMO we have.
- 1:15:59This is another big idea I've got.
- 1:16:01This show might go a little bit long.
- 1:16:03But another let the boy cook. Let the boy cook.
- 1:16:07Let's cook baby. Big idea is the billionaires are
- 1:16:11greedy, right? Everybody's greedy.
- 1:16:14It's human nature. And what happens when Michael
- 1:16:18Saylor's just walking around with that big swing?
- 1:16:20And let's be careful with what we say.
- 1:16:22But right now, Michael Saylor's company's going from $1 billion
- 1:16:26market cap to $90 billion market cap, and all of a sudden he's
- 1:16:30overtaking all of these guys who think they're so rich, so
- 1:16:32brilliant, so intelligent, And what happens when he continues
- 1:16:36to climb that world's richest man leaderboard?
- 1:16:39I believe we see competitive FOMO.
- 1:16:41I believe people, some billionaires, I don't want to
- 1:16:44name names, but some of the billionaires like Elon Musk,
- 1:16:46Bill Gates, all these guys, they look at their net worth compared
- 1:16:50to others and it's like a race. It's a competition.
- 1:16:53I'm the second richest, I'm the third richest.
- 1:16:55I want to be #1 big swing and Chad, you know what I mean?
- 1:16:58I believe it is a competition. And pretty soon, really soon, in
- 1:17:03the next 12 months, we are beginning to find out that the
- 1:17:06only way to be that number one top dog and to have the world's
- 1:17:10most profitable company and to be the world's richest man is to
- 1:17:14be significantly long Bitcoin. And eventually people are going
- 1:17:18to have to come to the realization that the only way
- 1:17:20you stay richer than MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor
- 1:17:24is you buy more Bitcoin than MicroStrategy and Michael
- 1:17:28Saylor. Right now that's nearly feasibly
- 1:17:31impossible because Michael Saylor has 400,000 Bitcoin and
- 1:17:36he owns 2% of the supply. So that means out of the two and
- 1:17:40a half thousand billionaires who the majority of them want to be
- 1:17:43richer than Michael Saylor, their only option and way to be
- 1:17:48richer than Michael Saylor is to buy more Bitcoin than Michael
- 1:17:51Saylor. But again, there's only two
- 1:17:54million Bitcoin on exchanges. So that means if you need more
- 1:17:57than 400,000 bitcoins to be richer than Michael Saylor,
- 1:18:01there's only enough Bitcoin for what, five of the two and a half
- 1:18:06thousand billionaires to be richer than Michael Saylor.
- 1:18:10So this is just another big idea.
- 1:18:11We're going to see billionaire FOMO, we're going to see public
- 1:18:14corporation FOMO, we're going to see hedge fund FOMO.
- 1:18:17And it's going to be a race for the scarcest asset.
- 1:18:20And they're all going to want to hold bit, not not all, but a lot
- 1:18:24of these entities who are buying Bitcoin, yes, some of them will
- 1:18:27trade, but a lot of these entities will just be buying
- 1:18:29Bitcoin for 100 years, like Michael Saylor.
- 1:18:32And I believe these guys who like the hedge funds control $5
- 1:18:37trillion or like the asset managers control 50 trillion.
- 1:18:41These guys taking a 1%, two percent, 10% allocation to
- 1:18:44Bitcoin, then buying at $500,000 a coin, They are going to matter
- 1:18:50a lot more than the retail plebs like us who are selling 10% of
- 1:18:54our stack to upgrade our lifestyle.
- 1:18:56So yes, you're always going to see Bitcoin sold to exchanges
- 1:18:59when Bitcoin hits 1,000,000. Sure, I'll, I'll peel off a
- 1:19:01little bit and sell a 1%, two percent, 5% of my Bitcoin
- 1:19:05position that I've huddled since 2017, right.
- 1:19:09But me selling a little piece of my position, the BlackRock, we
- 1:19:13don't matter. Like we're the fucking math
- 1:19:15group, the people who matter, the people who are going to be
- 1:19:20on the other side of that trade and they're, they're
- 1:19:22indiscriminately allocating to Bitcoin for 10 or 20 years.
- 1:19:27So I think that's the big idea. The the billionaire FOMO is
- 1:19:30coming and I I just don't think people are ready for what
- 1:19:35happens. Yeah, this comment that people's
- 1:19:381% stack is more than my 100%, like 1000% stack.
- 1:19:43Oh man, that's so funny. That is hilarious.
- 1:19:45Yeah, I love it, Luke. Actually, I do kind of want to.
- 1:19:48We are kind of running a little long today, but I want to let
- 1:19:51Luke cook a little more. I kind of have a very similar
- 1:19:55thinking because I, I think I said it, it might have been this
- 1:19:57week, I forget where I said it, but I'm also getting the same
- 1:20:01kind of trend and, and vibe that you're getting in.
- 1:20:05I've, I've been kind of flipping the diminishing returns meme on
- 1:20:07its head where I'm kind of feeling like we're going to get
- 1:20:11not necessarily diminishing returns, but like diminishing
- 1:20:14volatility on the downside because of what you said.
- 1:20:17We're like, you know, the quote UN quote, smart money's coming
- 1:20:19in. They're not going to FOMO or
- 1:20:21panic into the market. And when I hear all that and
- 1:20:25like knowing the psychology of of these asset managers, it
- 1:20:29makes me think like they're going to be holding that Bitcoin
- 1:20:32and not selling it and not necessarily trying to trade it.
- 1:20:35Obviously some people will trade that Bitcoin, but all of that is
- 1:20:39just making me feel like maybe we aren't going to see, you
- 1:20:43know, 90 percent, 70% corrections.
- 1:20:46Maybe, you know, it's going to be a 50 or 30% correction, which
- 1:20:49is still going to hurt if you're a Bitcoiner that's all in on
- 1:20:51Bitcoin. But I would, I'd love to see
- 1:20:53dampen volatility on the downside.
- 1:20:56And that would like, you know, very provably and with data show
- 1:21:01me that oh, people are starting to catch on to this Bitcoin
- 1:21:05thing. And as I say it all the time,
- 1:21:07well, actually I got corrected. But you know, I was saying for a
- 1:21:10while that the Bitcoin price is a real time metric of the
- 1:21:13world's understanding of Bitcoin.
- 1:21:15I think it was Matthew J in the chat that corrected me and he
- 1:21:17was like, no, it's the bottom of the bear market.
- 1:21:20That is the real time metric of people's understanding of of
- 1:21:23Bitcoin. So I think you kind of touched
- 1:21:25on that leak where you're kind of seeing the same thing where
- 1:21:27you're like these hedge fund managers, like they're not going
- 1:21:30to sell out of their positions at a bear market.
- 1:21:33They're going to understand by the dip like they're greedy,
- 1:21:35they want more Bitcoin. So I'm hoping that we see
- 1:21:38something similar. Obviously everyone's kind of
- 1:21:41looking at 2026 for the bear market to, you know, rear its
- 1:21:45head again, but I would love to see what you said that, you
- 1:21:48know, the quote UN quote, smart money out there is going to kind
- 1:21:52of dampen the volatility on the downside and I I'm that'd be
- 1:21:55great. I'd love that.
- 1:21:57Yeah, so I, I'm, I don't have the the, the hubris to say I
- 1:22:02know exactly what's going to happen in the future because
- 1:22:05math and science and my model says this is 100% going to
- 1:22:08happen. Definitely don't have the
- 1:22:10hubris. But I do have the feeling that
- 1:22:13we are potentially going to see something different.
- 1:22:15And that's just because the data has changed.
- 1:22:18OK, That's just because Michael Saylor literally did just buy
- 1:22:21300 days of new Bitcoin supply in two weeks.
- 1:22:25Like that's the facts. And he's not selling it again.
- 1:22:28Again, some people have questioned Sayla.
- 1:22:30Oh, he says he's not going to sell it for 100 years, but can
- 1:22:33we trust him? Well, I mean, he's been buying
- 1:22:34Bitcoin for nearly five years in a row now, and he hasn't sold
- 1:22:37any. OK, so maybe you have to start
- 1:22:40believing him. Maybe you have to start
- 1:22:42believing Buchely and El Salvador who right now is
- 1:22:45sitting on half a billion dollars of profit because of
- 1:22:48their Bitcoin strategy. They've huddled that through a
- 1:22:51bear market for the best part of three years now.
- 1:22:53OK, So I believe that yes, we have the potential to see
- 1:22:58smaller bear markets And again, I don't think we've actually
- 1:23:02seen a Bitcoin bear market with the institutions and the big
- 1:23:05boys involved. So I don't know what it's going
- 1:23:07to look like, but I do think saying every time we have an 80%
- 1:23:12bear market and it has to last for two years because that's
- 1:23:15what happened in 20/14/2018 and 2022, because it happened then
- 1:23:21when retail money dominated the space.
- 1:23:23It has to happen in the future. And I just think that's stupid.
- 1:23:26I think that's idiotic thinking. I don't think it's math and
- 1:23:29science based at all. Just because the price right now
- 1:23:33is following what you think is a model.
- 1:23:35I think the underlying fundamentals are going to break
- 1:23:37all of our models. So I'm personally prepared for
- 1:23:40anything though like again, my models, my, my conviction will
- 1:23:45not shake or waver in Bitcoin if we're at $10,000 tomorrow or $10
- 1:23:50million tomorrow. I've thought about both
- 1:23:53situations and under either circumstance, it doesn't change
- 1:23:57much for for me about Bitcoin. Like I expect Bitcoin to be
- 1:24:01worth $100 million a coin, $200 million a coin, $500 million a
- 1:24:06coin. I don't know.
- 1:24:07But again, if I wake up tomorrow and Bitcoin's at $10,000, again,
- 1:24:11in the short term, markets are irrational unless something has
- 1:24:15fundamentally changed with Bitcoin, unless blocks aren't
- 1:24:19being produced every 10 minutes or unless something really
- 1:24:22dramatic has changed. I got $10,000.
- 1:24:24Bitcoin's not going to worry me tomorrow.
- 1:24:26So again, I'd encourage everybody to study Bitcoin.
- 1:24:30And when you do, you do develop this sort of conviction that any
- 1:24:34price doesn't really waiver you because why would you hold
- 1:24:37anything else? Like if Bitcoin crashed to 50K
- 1:24:40tomorrow, what are you going to do?
- 1:24:41You're going to sell Bitcoin for Fiat money that somebody
- 1:24:44controls the bases and can hold over your head and convert into
- 1:24:48a CBDC. Are you idiot?
- 1:24:50Why would you want slave tokens, right?
- 1:24:53So again, I think that it really is.
- 1:24:57So I, I think to answer the the question, I, I think the
- 1:25:01possibility of shorter bear markets for me it's my base case
- 1:25:0550% pull backs, but I am prepared for everything.
- 1:25:09Love it, Luke, Love it. Well, I usually ask our guests
- 1:25:13to leave our audience with one last message, so I'm gonna do
- 1:25:18the same for you. But I'm gonna, I'm gonna tweak
- 1:25:21it a little bit. I, I, I think it'd be hard for
- 1:25:23someone to listen to this show and not be stupidly bullish.
- 1:25:27But I want you to leave the audience with one more last
- 1:25:31bullish message and tell them why they need to buy some
- 1:25:36Bitcoin. Oh, I got a couple.
- 1:25:39So I think some people, I've had some people say, Luke, you're
- 1:25:43being bullish. Firstly, you don't believe it
- 1:25:45and two, it's dangerous. I've had people who told me it
- 1:25:48was dangerous to be bullish on Bitcoin and bull posting about
- 1:25:51it when it was a $16,000 a coin a couple of years ago.
- 1:25:54Firstly, I am this bullish on Bitcoin.
- 1:25:57Again, I haven't lived in Australia for three years
- 1:25:59because my base case is Bitcoin's going to monetize
- 1:26:02really rapidly and I don't want to be living in a authoritarian,
- 1:26:04tyrannical government. That's a prison, Connelly.
- 1:26:07It's a prison colony in an island.
- 1:26:09OK, when Bitcoin's at $1,000,000 or $10 million a coin, because I
- 1:26:12don't know how the Australian government will react.
- 1:26:15We saw how they reacted in 2020 and I don't want to take chances
- 1:26:18on that. So I, I, again, I am as I, I
- 1:26:22genuinely am as bullish as I sound online.
- 1:26:24I genuinely believe Bitcoin's going to monetize much quicker
- 1:26:27than most people think. And I kind of backed that up
- 1:26:30with how I live my life. So most people aren't bullish
- 1:26:33enough on Bitcoin. The other part of the question
- 1:26:38was I, I just think all of this is going to happen much quicker
- 1:26:42than we think. There are no models for how
- 1:26:45digital scarcity gets adopted by the world.
- 1:26:47And I genuinely do believe, like, yeah, we talk about price
- 1:26:50a lot, but Bitcoin is the most liberating technology in human
- 1:26:54history, and it is the most impactful technology in human
- 1:26:57history. And it is going to change our
- 1:26:59civilization and the world more than any other technology before
- 1:27:03in human history. And it's a big claim.
- 1:27:06I'm saying Bitcoin's going to be more important than fire.
- 1:27:10OK, Alex Fetsky, a good friend of mine, has written an
- 1:27:13incredible article, Fire, Bitcoin and Teleportation.
- 1:27:16And he says those 3 inventions are going to be, well, they,
- 1:27:19they have been and they will be the most impactful inventions
- 1:27:22for our civilization. OK, again, fire was the thing
- 1:27:26that actually grew our brains, OK?
- 1:27:28Fire was the thing that for 10s and hundreds of thousands of
- 1:27:31years significantly impacted our evolution because when we could
- 1:27:35cook food with fire, we could get more nutrients from our food
- 1:27:40and our brain grew. It liberated more calories for
- 1:27:45us. That changed our civilization a
- 1:27:47lot, dramatically. OK, I'm telling you, I believe
- 1:27:52Bitcoin could have a bigger impact on our civilization than
- 1:27:57FIRE, than the printing press. The printing press completely
- 1:28:01changed how the world operated 500 years ago.
- 1:28:04It separated the church from state because it democratized
- 1:28:07and decentralized information for everyone.
- 1:28:10Bitcoins are way bigger than the printing press.
- 1:28:13Bitcoin is going to separate money from state for the first
- 1:28:16time in 7000 years. For the first time in 7000
- 1:28:19years, we're going to have a form of money that nobody
- 1:28:21controls, debases, and cannot confiscate from you.
- 1:28:27OK, I, I, I really do believe Bitcoin's going to be the most
- 1:28:30liberating technology in human history.
- 1:28:32Yes, the price is crazy. Yes, I talk about the price a
- 1:28:35lot on my live streams. Yes, I talk about the ETFs a
- 1:28:38lot. But like, the real revolution
- 1:28:40here is that for the first time in human history, we're living
- 1:28:43through what the sovereign individual authors call is the
- 1:28:47information age, the first decentralized revolution in
- 1:28:51human history. And Bitcoin is a core component
- 1:28:55of that revolution, a core tool. And so are things like these
- 1:29:00other cool technologies we have, like the Internet, which for the
- 1:29:03first time in human history allows us to communicate and
- 1:29:06learn from anybody around the world.
- 1:29:08There are 8 billion people right now.
- 1:29:10I could listen to or communicate with anyone around the world and
- 1:29:14send them value instantly. 20 years ago, 100 years ago, you
- 1:29:19can literally only communicate and learn from somebody in your
- 1:29:23physical location. Like 0.000000001% of the world's
- 1:29:30population you had to talk to communicate with, learn from,
- 1:29:36marry, date somebody who was in a 30 kilometer radius from you
- 1:29:41because we didn't have cars. OK, I think a lot of these
- 1:29:45models we have from the industrial age are still being
- 1:29:49thought of in the digital age, in the information age and think
- 1:29:54people were simply not thinking about everything in life in a
- 1:29:58bigger picture, you know, framework.
- 1:30:01So again, I guilty once again of talking for a very long time,
- 1:30:05but I think Bitcoin is the most important technology that our
- 1:30:10civilization has ever discovered.
- 1:30:12It is the thing that could potentially save us from living
- 1:30:17on this planet forever, OK? I think the invention of energy
- 1:30:20money is essential in getting the world to cooperate more and
- 1:30:24getting us off this planet, OK? The smartest individuals that
- 1:30:28have ever walked this planet, you know, Henry Ford, Nikola
- 1:30:32Tesla, the light bulb creator, what's his name?
- 1:30:37Edison. All of these guys were
- 1:30:40fascinated with energy money in the late 1800s and the early
- 1:30:441900s because it's the biggest thing since sliced bread.
- 1:30:49Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008 create created energy money.
- 1:30:54So I think it really is much bigger than most people think.
- 1:30:58I think Bitcoin is the most liberating technology.
- 1:31:02I mean, I could talk about Bitcoin for hours.
- 1:31:04There's 2 billion people that are unbanked around the world.
- 1:31:07What happens when you give those 2 billion people a bank account?
- 1:31:1020% of the world is locked out of the global economy. 20% of
- 1:31:13the world cannot create these revolutionary ideas and create a
- 1:31:17business because they can't get capital, because they don't have
- 1:31:20a bank account. They're locked in the industrial
- 1:31:23age. How many Albert Einsteins are
- 1:31:26amongst those 2 billion people who don't have bank accounts?
- 1:31:29How many incredible ideas do those people have in their
- 1:31:33brains? A lot of ideas.
- 1:31:36How many extra ideas? How many extra incredible
- 1:31:40businesses will be built when people have more time, when
- 1:31:44they're not thinking about robbing, stealing, or just
- 1:31:47trying to survive because they're on the rat race, because
- 1:31:50the cost of living is incredibly expensive?
- 1:31:53How many extra incredible ideas will be created by our
- 1:31:56civilization when the money is fixed and people can do what
- 1:31:59they should do, and that is work a little bit 2010 hours a week
- 1:32:04maybe, maybe less hours a week, buy the things that they need to
- 1:32:08survive. And then the rest of the time
- 1:32:09they can think about what makes them passionate.
- 1:32:12They can build a business, they can provide a good service to
- 1:32:14the marketplace. I, I think I could talk about
- 1:32:16Bitcoin for hours and why it's so important.
- 1:32:18But I, I do think it's the most important technology in human
- 1:32:22history. And nobody has grocked that idea
- 1:32:25yet. Bitcoin is a binary bet.
- 1:32:27It's all or nothing. And it is really Bitcoin.
- 1:32:30Or as Nico says, it's Bitcoin or slavery.
- 1:32:33In the digital age, if Bitcoin fails, we're living under a
- 1:32:38totalitarian gulak. So it's a pretty big idea.
- 1:32:42Well, let's go. I've been used.
- 1:32:46I've been used that soundboard in a minute.
- 1:32:49So Luke, thank you for coming on, man.
- 1:32:51Good way to send off everyone on the weekend guys.
- 1:32:55If you liked the bullish signal from Luke, make sure you follow
- 1:33:00him on Twitter. Luke Mikic 21 maybe for the
- 1:33:03audio listeners, Mikic is MIKIC of course, go follow his YouTube
- 1:33:08as well. Luke Mikic guy's making
- 1:33:10incredible content. He's out there putting the bull
- 1:33:13sauce in your ears. Wait, pause every single day.
- 1:33:19Luke, thank you for coming on. We're going to have to bring you
- 1:33:22back on again with with Nico here so you can you can turn
- 1:33:25that bear into a bull just like yourself.
- 1:33:28Anyways, Luke, really appreciate you, man.
- 1:33:30It was a great show. Thank you so much for having me
- 1:33:33man. Always love getting on a live
- 1:33:35stream with the Simply Bitcoin team and absolutely love the
- 1:33:38live chat. I was giggling and smiling like
- 1:33:41an idiot the whole time. There's so many people that so
- 1:33:43many familiar faces in the live chat, but I absolutely love
- 1:33:47these live streams. Just, it's hilarious.
- 1:33:49Yeah, chat, chat's goaded. Chat's goaded.
- 1:33:52All right, guys, Luke, hang out for a second behind the scenes,
- 1:33:55and I'm gonna wrap up today's show.
- 1:33:57Guys. We made it through another week.
- 1:34:00If you're not feeling bullish today, I don't know what is
- 1:34:02going to make you feel more bullish.
- 1:34:04But anyways, if you enjoyed the show, of course, like comment,
- 1:34:08let us know. Are you feeling this bullish or
- 1:34:11are we just smoking the opium here?
- 1:34:12And of course, subscribe to Simply Bitcoin.
- 1:34:15We will be back Monday with our normally scheduled program and I
- 1:34:19hope you guys have a good weekend.
- 1:34:20Make sure you get outside, touch some grass, get the sun on your
- 1:34:23face, eat some good food, call your mother or your family and
- 1:34:27your loved ones. It's very important that you
- 1:34:30maintain your in world connections.
- 1:34:32All right guys, this is your boy Opti.
- 1:34:34Of course, that was Luke Mikic and we'll be back on Monday.
- 1:34:38Peace out guys, have a good weekend.
- 1:34:42Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
- 1:34:45Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
- 1:34:48independence.