Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Want to know where the economy is headed? Look at these banks.

Transcript

Want to know where the economy is headed? Look at these banks. · The Financial Exchange Show

0:00
Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
0:02
Speaker 1: is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
0:05
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
0:08
Speaker 1: the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
0:11
Speaker 1: or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
0:14
Speaker 1: not offer any specific financial or investment advice. Please consult
0:17
Speaker 1: your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
0:20
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong Advisory and the advertisers heard on
0:23
Speaker 1: this program do not endorse each other or their services.
0:26
Speaker 1: Armstrong and Money Matters Radio do not compensate each other
0:28
Speaker 1: for referrals and are not affiliated. This is the Financial
0:34
Speaker 1: Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong, Your exclusive look
0:38
Speaker 1: at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
0:42
Speaker 1: your world. Stay informed and up to date about economic
0:46
Speaker 1: and market trends plus breaking business news every day. The
0:50
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled American
0:53
Speaker 1: Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Help us support our great American
0:57
Speaker 1: heroes by visiting dav five K Boston and making a
1:01
Speaker 1: donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada,
1:06
Speaker 1: and Mike Armstrong.
1:10
Speaker 2: Last week, at the beginning of the week, we told you,
1:12
Speaker 2: you know what, take this one off. There's no major
1:15
Speaker 2: economic news, there's nothing interesting going on. Go outside, catch
1:20
Speaker 2: some fish, hit some golf balls, weave the lawn. You
1:23
Speaker 2: don't need to listen to us this week. Oh we
1:27
Speaker 2: got a fun one for you. Tomorrow we got CPI data. Tuesday,
1:31
Speaker 2: we got PPI data when I'm sorry. Thursday, we've got
1:34
Speaker 2: retail sales and jobless claims. Friday, we've got housing starts,
1:38
Speaker 2: building permits, consumer sentiment. And this is before we even
1:42
Speaker 2: get into earnings, which kick off in Earnest tomorrow with
1:45
Speaker 2: JP Morgan, Black Rock City Group in Wells Fargo, all
1:49
Speaker 2: the companies that people love to hate and coming together
1:52
Speaker 2: in one day to kick off earning season. So it's Chuck,
1:55
Speaker 2: Mike and Tucker with you, and yeah, we got a
1:58
Speaker 2: fun one this week, and earnings, I think you're gonna
2:00
Speaker 2: be what you know people are primarily focused on. In
2:03
Speaker 2: addition to the CPI, those are kind of the big things.
2:05
Speaker 2: And just to you know, all the other stuff.
2:07
Speaker 3: I was gonna say, all of those things to me
2:09
Speaker 3: probably fall by the wayside. Uh, Given what we're learning
2:13
Speaker 3: every day about tariffs and where those go next.
2:16
Speaker 2: Too, So I don't agree, I disagree. I know attention.
2:19
Speaker 2: I take the market's approach right now, which is ignore it,
2:22
Speaker 2: ignored until August first. Yeah, and even then maybe ignore
2:25
Speaker 2: it too. Yeah, we'll see where we are three weeks
2:28
Speaker 2: from now.
2:29
Speaker 3: In terms of non major financial companies reporting, we also
2:31
Speaker 3: have Johnson and Johnson going Wednesday morning, and then I
2:35
Speaker 3: believe we have Netflix Yes on Thursday after noon after
2:39
Speaker 3: the close. So you know, obviously big big financial companies going,
2:43
Speaker 3: Geo Aerospace is in there too, but a few very
2:45
Speaker 3: large non financial companies that will be reporting as well
2:48
Speaker 3: this week.
2:49
Speaker 2: So I think that when we look at the earning
2:52
Speaker 2: season here, the questions are going to be pretty simple.
2:57
Speaker 2: Tell us what happened in Q two and how do
3:00
Speaker 2: you think tariffs are going to impact your Q three
3:02
Speaker 2: and Q four earnings?
3:04
Speaker 4: Did banks have much to say about that interview?
3:06
Speaker 2: They're gonna tell us a little bit about what's going
3:08
Speaker 2: on from a lone growth and credit quality perspective. So
3:11
Speaker 2: that's the place where I think it's maybe interesting is
3:13
Speaker 2: just hey, what are you seeing as far as you
3:15
Speaker 2: know credit cards spending, our delinquencies sure still going up
3:19
Speaker 2: or is that peaked at this point? You know, those
3:22
Speaker 2: are the kinds of things that matter there. I don't
3:24
Speaker 2: care so much about, you know, deal making and M
3:27
Speaker 2: and A and and trading and stuff like that. I
3:30
Speaker 2: want to hear from the banks. What are you seeing
3:33
Speaker 2: from Americans in terms of their spending habits. Has there
3:37
Speaker 2: been any shift in the second part of the second quarter,
3:41
Speaker 2: because when when banks announced like their Q one earnings,
3:44
Speaker 2: remember it was about this time in April, and banks
3:47
Speaker 2: had largely said we didn't really see much difference in
3:51
Speaker 2: terms of how you know, consumers are spending. Is that
3:55
Speaker 2: still the case?
3:56
Speaker 4: Right?
3:56
Speaker 2: So I think that's that's kind of what I'm interested
3:59
Speaker 2: in hearing from banks. The other stuff I don't really
4:04
Speaker 2: care about too much. I mean, M and A is
4:06
Speaker 2: so cyclical that it's like, if you ask banks about
4:09
Speaker 2: M and A three months ago, they're like, oh, it's terrible.
4:11
Speaker 2: Now They're like, yeah, there's some stuff going on.
4:13
Speaker 3: Trading volume isn't there? It doesn't really indicate much of anything. Yeah,
4:18
Speaker 3: the question about the banks these days, We've talked about
4:20
Speaker 3: this before, but you know, basically regulated utility companies, at
4:25
Speaker 3: least those big ones Wall Street Journal makes the points that, hey,
4:28
Speaker 3: if you really want to see what's going on with
4:31
Speaker 3: the economy and where corporate borrowers are going, go look
4:34
Speaker 3: at the smaller banks who actually do some of the lending,
4:37
Speaker 3: because the big banks are largely out of it. I
4:39
Speaker 3: would actually say even then you might not be able
4:42
Speaker 3: to get a full picture because of the private credit
4:44
Speaker 3: situation that has expanded so much over the last few years.
4:47
Speaker 3: But it is a compelling and interesting piece here that hey,
4:49
Speaker 3: the big banks don't really tell you much like they
4:52
Speaker 3: used to pre financial crisis.
4:55
Speaker 2: You mentioned private credit. I had kind of an epiphany
4:58
Speaker 2: over the weekend, a full on epiphany. Yes, you know,
5:03
Speaker 2: I'm sitting out there. I'm not having any beers because
5:08
Speaker 2: it was too hot for beers. Quite honestly, this weekend,
5:10
Speaker 2: this week for yourself.
5:12
Speaker 4: I don't know that that's a temperature, but keep going.
5:15
Speaker 2: It was too humid for any beers. I think that's
5:18
Speaker 2: a thing. At least, you know, the alcohol simultaneously just
5:22
Speaker 2: dissolves into the air before you even get to it.
5:25
Speaker 2: But I'm sitting out there, and again, I don't know
5:27
Speaker 2: why I was thinking about this, but I'm sitting there
5:30
Speaker 2: thinking about private credit. And I have this epiphany. Isn't
5:35
Speaker 2: private credit just a bank lending to someone? What's the
5:43
Speaker 2: real difference? So, like, as an example, let's say that
5:47
Speaker 2: I run a business, Michael, Yes, and I go to
5:50
Speaker 2: a bank and say, hey, I need ten million dollars
5:52
Speaker 2: to expand I'm not doing you know, a full on
5:54
Speaker 2: bond offering. I'm just I'm asking the bank to lend
5:56
Speaker 2: me ten million dollars. How is that any different from
6:00
Speaker 2: a private credit company who says, hey, you know what,
6:03
Speaker 2: We're going to lend ten million dollars to this company
6:06
Speaker 2: to expand.
6:09
Speaker 3: It's regulated differently, Yes, I guess the question is shows
6:13
Speaker 3: to be but yeah, very big questions about whether or
6:15
Speaker 3: not it should be. But yeah, the bank is going
6:17
Speaker 3: to face far bigger restrictions on who it can lend to,
6:20
Speaker 3: how much it can and.
6:21
Speaker 2: The bank will typically like keep that on that on
6:23
Speaker 2: their book instead of having outside investors coming in. But
6:26
Speaker 2: it isn't private credit just kind of like a rebranding
6:28
Speaker 2: of hey, we're a bank.
6:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's not that exciting. It's just no got
6:33
Speaker 3: different end customers.
6:34
Speaker 2: Which means that it can't actually do anything that's that
6:36
Speaker 2: different in the long run, Like the short run, it
6:40
Speaker 2: can yeah, you know, but it's kind of like private
6:44
Speaker 2: credit by.
6:45
Speaker 3: The way, you know, for those unfamiliar, it's been an
6:49
Speaker 3: expanding group of lenders who go out and and fill
6:52
Speaker 3: private loans. Rather than companies needing to access bond markets
6:56
Speaker 3: or needing to go to banks who largely stepped away
6:59
Speaker 3: from lending post fiveinancial crisis, it has been an expanding
7:02
Speaker 3: group of institutions that do this type of lending out
7:05
Speaker 3: to individuals. They then go oftentimes package and sell those loans,
7:09
Speaker 3: mainly to institutional investors, pensions, hedge funds, that those.
7:13
Speaker 4: Sorts of places.
7:15
Speaker 3: And what makes it different is that compared to the
7:18
Speaker 3: loans being made by the bank, it's far more opaque
7:21
Speaker 3: in terms of what the default rate looks like, what
7:24
Speaker 3: the you know, the interest rates are that are being charged,
7:27
Speaker 3: all of those things. When they're done by a bank,
7:30
Speaker 3: it's fairly obvious. Or when the company doesn't you know,
7:32
Speaker 3: public loan offering and gets raided by a credit rating agency,
7:37
Speaker 3: you know what's going on when it's done by a
7:40
Speaker 3: private credit company, And that's been a lot of the
7:42
Speaker 3: criticism here is nobody knows whether or not they're actually
7:45
Speaker 3: doing a good job of underwriting.
7:47
Speaker 2: And you know, the reason why individuals and the reason
7:51
Speaker 2: why institutions have gotten interested is, hey, the amounts, the
7:55
Speaker 2: yields that you can earn on it are typically much higher.
7:58
Speaker 2: Now ringing any belt again, you can't have two things
8:02
Speaker 2: be true in perpetuity. You can't always get higher rates
8:07
Speaker 2: on private credit if nothing ever goes wrong, because if
8:10
Speaker 2: nothing goes wrong, then people will eventually say, well, I
8:13
Speaker 2: can underwrite this more cheaply, and so the gap comes down.
8:17
Speaker 2: So I kind of liken this not in terms of
8:19
Speaker 2: the potential for problems, but just in that. You know,
8:22
Speaker 2: back in two thousand and four, five and six, everyone
8:26
Speaker 2: was talking about all mortgage backed securities. They're triple A rated,
8:30
Speaker 2: but look at the yields on and what could go wrong?
8:32
Speaker 2: And then in two thousand and seven and two thousand
8:33
Speaker 2: and eight it was like everything can go wrong. I'm
8:37
Speaker 2: not saying we're going to have that, but something has
8:39
Speaker 2: to give. Either the yields on private credit are going
8:42
Speaker 2: to have to come down because there's going to be
8:44
Speaker 2: far more money chasing after a fixed supply of loans
8:47
Speaker 2: and supplying A man tells you that's what happens, or
8:52
Speaker 2: something goes horribly wrong and people are like, hey, why
8:54
Speaker 2: didn't you tell us that this could default like this?
8:56
Speaker 2: It's like, well, you were getting nine percent on the loan,
8:59
Speaker 2: so you probably applied. You probably should have assumed, Hey,
9:03
Speaker 2: maybe something could go wrong at some point in any case,
9:07
Speaker 2: I think that from the banks, I want to hear
9:11
Speaker 2: about what's going on with consumer spending and business borrowing.
9:16
Speaker 2: Those are the two places that I want to hear about,
9:18
Speaker 2: because the consumer loan space, I know what's going on
9:21
Speaker 2: with mortgages. There's more being underwritten right now than last year.
9:24
Speaker 2: It's largely because cash buyers are drying up, and so
9:27
Speaker 2: I know what's going on in the housing market. I
9:30
Speaker 2: have a good enough picture there. I don't know, Hey,
9:34
Speaker 2: people are pulling back on spending on flights and restaurants,
9:38
Speaker 2: but is that money just going somewhere else right now?
9:41
Speaker 2: And so we're continuing to see like five percent year
9:43
Speaker 2: over year spending growth.
9:44
Speaker 4: When we have Visa and MasterCard reporting earnings.
9:47
Speaker 2: They are usually in the second cycle, so they I
9:50
Speaker 2: think are the last week in July they.
9:52
Speaker 4: Were twenty ninth.
9:52
Speaker 3: They'll be reporting and that's you know, that's always a
9:55
Speaker 3: telling one. Capital one would be another one to name
9:57
Speaker 3: there that does a lot of that lending to individuals.
10:01
Speaker 2: Take a quick break. When we come back, we are
10:03
Speaker 2: talking tariffs after this.
10:06
Speaker 1: Find daily interviews and full shows of the Financial Exchange
10:09
Speaker 1: on our YouTube page. Subscribe to our page and get
10:12
Speaker 1: caught up on anything and everything you might have missed.
10:15
Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Thankst us six one, seven, three,
10:22
Speaker 1: six two thirteen eighty five with your comments and questions
10:25
Speaker 1: about today's show, and let us know what you think
10:27
Speaker 1: about the stories we are covering. This is the Financial
10:30
Speaker 1: Exchange Radio Network.
10:37
Speaker 5: Well, the Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the
10:40
Speaker 5: Disabled American Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Now's the perfect time
10:45
Speaker 5: to register for this year's five K at Castle Island
10:48
Speaker 5: by visiting DAV fivek dot Boston. The event will sell
10:52
Speaker 5: out again, so if you're interested in participating, now's the
10:55
Speaker 5: time to reserve your spot. Come out and help support
10:58
Speaker 5: our great American Here's by joining us for the DAB
11:01
Speaker 5: five k. Visit DAB five k dot Boston to register
11:05
Speaker 5: or to make a donation today. That's DAV five k
11:08
Speaker 5: dot Boston.
11:10
Speaker 2: In letters posted to truth Social on Saturday morning, President
11:14
Speaker 2: Trump indicated that excuse me, the United States will begin
11:18
Speaker 2: charging a thirty percent tariff on goods from the EU
11:21
Speaker 2: and Mexico effective August first. Markets have responded to this
11:26
Speaker 2: by shrugging it off completely and saying, we don't believe you.
11:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really interesting. I don't think I'm over exaggerating
11:36
Speaker 3: here by saying that very few and I don't just
11:41
Speaker 3: mean investors, but whether it's traders in the copper markets
11:45
Speaker 3: or whether it is importers, very few are taking the.
11:48
Speaker 4: Threat of any of these tariffs very.
11:50
Speaker 3: Seriously, which is similar but a little bit different from
11:55
Speaker 3: where we were back in March. I'm hearing echoes of
11:59
Speaker 3: where we were, right. I mean, we were talking about
12:01
Speaker 3: tariffs quite a bit. We kept saying over and over
12:03
Speaker 3: the presence seems pretty serious about all this stuff.
12:08
Speaker 4: Then when the.
12:08
Speaker 3: Actual announcements came out, investors finally started reacting to it.
12:14
Speaker 2: This time, wait, you're actually going to do this right
12:17
Speaker 2: this time. Since then, it's been well, no, you're not
12:19
Speaker 2: actually going to do.
12:20
Speaker 3: This right, And yeah, this time around, everyone is playing
12:25
Speaker 3: that exact same game. You know, whether it's traders who
12:29
Speaker 3: are largely ignoring this, I mean, markets are off slightly
12:32
Speaker 3: from their all time highs, but not significantly in the
12:35
Speaker 3: import markets. Right, It's not as though people who need
12:39
Speaker 3: their hands on copper, for example, are planning to pay
12:44
Speaker 3: the tariff. They are basically sending their shipments to other
12:47
Speaker 3: parts of the world and saying, hey, this will go
12:48
Speaker 3: away soon.
12:49
Speaker 4: We'll just wait a few months to figure it all out.
12:51
Speaker 3: And so we're getting to a place where, yeah, no
12:55
Speaker 3: one is fundamentally taking it seriously, which you know, I suppose,
12:59
Speaker 3: based on recent hill is the right play, but also
13:02
Speaker 3: sets you up for a spectacular failure or at least
13:07
Speaker 3: downturn in markets if people are wrong.
13:09
Speaker 2: It does because there are a few different things that
13:11
Speaker 2: are going on here. The first is the economic data
13:14
Speaker 2: that we've gotten to this point. Can you find any
13:19
Speaker 2: concrete evidence the tariffs have impacted in any meaningful way?
13:25
Speaker 2: I would struggle to you can't. Now, most of the
13:28
Speaker 2: economic data that we have is through May. Most of
13:30
Speaker 2: the tariffs that we've you know, discussed that have been
13:32
Speaker 2: implemented to this point went into effect in you know,
13:35
Speaker 2: early to mid April, so you can make the case that, hey,
13:38
Speaker 2: there hasn't really been that much time that they've been
13:40
Speaker 2: in effect.
13:40
Speaker 3: And many people have you know, hypothesized that, you know,
13:44
Speaker 3: employment and other growth type data would be better in
13:48
Speaker 3: the absence of these tariffs.
13:50
Speaker 2: But it's really tough to run a counter stual model completely.
13:54
Speaker 2: So I think number one, it's okay. Sorry, the information
13:59
Speaker 2: hasn't own up in big spider, Little spider, tiny little spider.
14:03
Speaker 4: We're good.
14:04
Speaker 5: So you folded your laptop onto said spider. Is that
14:07
Speaker 5: was that the maneuver.
14:08
Speaker 2: I couldn't see the spider. Wait, so if you couldn't
14:10
Speaker 2: see this wait wait, you couldn't see the spider. So
14:15
Speaker 2: but you did see it.
14:16
Speaker 3: He's running this way, went behind the laptop, folded the
14:18
Speaker 3: laptop down, killed the spider, pushed the laptop back up.
14:21
Speaker 2: That was what was impressive. What finger did you get
14:24
Speaker 2: it with?
14:24
Speaker 4: Uh?
14:25
Speaker 2: Pointer, All right, we're good. You better wash that. That's
14:29
Speaker 2: all I'm saying.
14:30
Speaker 4: The spider is dead, you better wash that during the break.
14:33
Speaker 4: Let's move on.
14:34
Speaker 2: Sorry to be a black widow, and you don't want
14:36
Speaker 2: to be eating that stuff. Uh. In any case, the
14:40
Speaker 2: economic data, even though it shows the US economy slowing
14:44
Speaker 2: from the second half of this second half of last
14:47
Speaker 2: year second half of last year, were running pretty close
14:49
Speaker 2: to three percent GDP growth. I think it was like
14:51
Speaker 2: two seven to two eight first half of this year.
14:54
Speaker 2: You're probably gonna be somewhere in the one and a
14:56
Speaker 2: quarter to one and three quarters range. So there's a slowing,
14:59
Speaker 2: but it's because, quite honestly, the US economy can't grow
15:02
Speaker 2: at three percent consistently with the demographic mix that we have.
15:06
Speaker 2: You need either more people coming in, either through berths
15:10
Speaker 2: or immigration, or you need productivity growth that is much faster,
15:15
Speaker 2: and we just don't have that. We don't have that.
15:19
Speaker 2: So the economic data has been generally fine, but showing
15:22
Speaker 2: a modest deceleration, probably back towards where it can be
15:25
Speaker 2: sustainable in the long term. So if all you're gonna
15:28
Speaker 2: get is okay, there's a slow down to like one
15:30
Speaker 2: and a half percent GDP growth for a couple quarters,
15:33
Speaker 2: markets are kind of right to shrug that off if
15:35
Speaker 2: that's what you get. Likewise, when it comes to you know,
15:40
Speaker 2: new tariff announcements, how many times, even since April second,
15:44
Speaker 2: have we seen new tarif announcements that have gone away
15:46
Speaker 2: in you know, subsequent days. I remember just before a
15:50
Speaker 2: Memorial Day weekend. It was Memorial Day Friday, and the
15:53
Speaker 2: President announced that he was considering a fifty percent tariff
15:56
Speaker 2: on the EU. By Memorial Day that was gone. And
16:01
Speaker 2: so it's just something where if you've been, you know,
16:05
Speaker 2: trying to use tariff announcements since April second to bet
16:09
Speaker 2: against the market, there hasn't been any meat on that bone.
16:13
Speaker 2: That dog won't hunt. And so I think, ultimately, until
16:19
Speaker 2: proven otherwise, either in the economic data or in the
16:23
Speaker 2: actions of the Trump administration since April second, you kind
16:28
Speaker 2: of have to have the belief, hey, this doesn't matter
16:31
Speaker 2: right now to markets until proven otherwise.
16:33
Speaker 3: Right The budget lab at Yale has been nerds, Yes
16:39
Speaker 3: they are, and they are really good at analyzing.
16:42
Speaker 2: They're really good at what they do.
16:43
Speaker 3: They've been the great nerds, pre eminent leader in analyzing
16:47
Speaker 3: the rate of tariffs overall and how consumer behavior is
16:49
Speaker 3: likely to shift. They put out new data pretty much
16:52
Speaker 3: every time there's an announcement, and they put out new
16:54
Speaker 3: data an hour ago when it came to all the
16:57
Speaker 3: new announced US tariffs. The estimated effects of all US
17:02
Speaker 3: tariffs and foreign retaliation through July thirteenth include the newly
17:07
Speaker 3: announced thirty percent tariffs on the EU in Mexico, which,
17:10
Speaker 3: to be clear, going to effect on August first, but
17:11
Speaker 3: they're analyzing the effect of them now, and then they're
17:15
Speaker 3: going to follow up on the reciprocal additional fifteen to
17:19
Speaker 3: twenty percent later this week. But what they said is
17:21
Speaker 3: that consumers now face or now will face an overall
17:24
Speaker 3: average effective tariff rate of twenty point six percent. That
17:28
Speaker 3: would be the highest rate since nineteen ten after consumption shifts.
17:32
Speaker 2: Do we have anyone who's alive then that we can
17:34
Speaker 2: talk to, Yeah, I'm sure we could get Probably not,
17:38
Speaker 2: they'd be one hundred and fifteen right now.
17:40
Speaker 4: They might be willing to talk.
17:41
Speaker 2: I don't know if there are any one hundred and
17:42
Speaker 2: fifteen year olds in the United States.
17:44
Speaker 4: It's a good question.
17:46
Speaker 3: After consumption shifts, the average tariff rate would be nineteen
17:50
Speaker 3: point seven percent. So what they're saying here is, hey,
17:52
Speaker 3: if we actually faced twenty point six percent tariffs, people
17:55
Speaker 3: would change their behavior a bit. They might buy something else.
17:58
Speaker 2: Living person is right now now one hundred and fourteen, Okay,
18:01
Speaker 2: so don't happen. They probably don't know much about nineteen ten.
18:05
Speaker 3: At nineteen point seven percent effective tariffs, that's the highest
18:08
Speaker 3: rate that we've seen since nineteen thirty three.
18:10
Speaker 4: So we are in.
18:15
Speaker 3: Rare company right now when it comes to tariffs, and
18:19
Speaker 3: I think most would admit alongside me that the US
18:22
Speaker 3: economy today does not have a ton in common with
18:25
Speaker 3: the US economy of nineteen ten to nineteen thirty three.
18:28
Speaker 4: They are pretty different.
18:30
Speaker 3: And so I think I'm sticking with what we've talked
18:32
Speaker 3: about pretty much all Yearchuck, which is nobody alive today,
18:37
Speaker 3: has any idea what happens to the economy if tariffs
18:40
Speaker 3: actually go to these levels. It doesn't seem like it
18:43
Speaker 3: would be terribly good in the short term, but you know,
18:46
Speaker 3: fast forward ten fifteen years. I have no clue what
18:49
Speaker 3: all this looks like. But to be really clear, investors
18:54
Speaker 3: over the course of the last couple of weeks have
18:57
Speaker 3: shrugged this off and are playing that same taco trade
19:00
Speaker 3: trumpet always chickens out is the acronym there, And if they.
19:03
Speaker 4: Are wrong, there could be some potential market downside here.
19:07
Speaker 2: Do you know that there are only seventy nine Americans
19:09
Speaker 2: age one hundred and ten or older that are alive
19:11
Speaker 2: right now.
19:12
Speaker 4: Seventy nine seems it's a shortlist.
19:15
Speaker 2: You think that seems high out of ten million. Yeah,
19:18
Speaker 2: I figured there'd be maybe a thousand of them.
19:20
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, maybe it seems like a shortlist.
19:25
Speaker 2: Really, you know, wakes you up and makes you think
19:27
Speaker 2: about things. Take a quick break. When we come back,
19:33
Speaker 2: it's Wall Street Watch.
19:42
Speaker 1: Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter at
19:44
Speaker 1: TFE show. Breaking business news is always first right here
19:49
Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Time now for Wall
19:54
Speaker 1: Street Watch a complete look at what's moving markets so
19:58
Speaker 1: far today Right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:02
Speaker 5: Markets are beginning a busy week ahead and slightly negative
20:06
Speaker 5: territory as traders react to President Trump's latest thirty percent
20:09
Speaker 5: terror threat on the EU and Mexico. Wall Street's also
20:13
Speaker 5: readying for the ramp up to second quarter earning season,
20:16
Speaker 5: in addition to an inflation reading dueout tomorrow morning. Right now,
20:20
Speaker 5: the Dow is off by a tenth of one percent
20:23
Speaker 5: or sixty three points. SMP five hundred is down two
20:26
Speaker 5: tenths of one percenter, thirteen points, NASDAC off by a
20:29
Speaker 5: tenth of a percenter, thirty points, RUSSED two thousand, edging
20:32
Speaker 5: higher about a quarter percent. Tenure treasure reeled is I
20:37
Speaker 5: don't have it in front of me, not sure where
20:39
Speaker 5: that went. And crude oil is off about a half
20:42
Speaker 5: a percent, rating at sixty eight dollars and seven cents
20:45
Speaker 5: a barrel. Several crypto stocks, including coin based, MicroStrategy and Robinhood,
20:50
Speaker 5: are all seeing gains on the day as bitcoin rallied
20:53
Speaker 5: to yet another all time high. Meanwhile, lab equipment and
20:57
Speaker 5: software maker Waters agreed to combine with Beck and Dickinson's
21:00
Speaker 5: biosciences and diagnostics solutions business in a deal value at
21:05
Speaker 5: seventeen and a half billion dollars. Waterstock is sinking nearly
21:09
Speaker 5: fourteen percent on that news. Elsewhere, Fastenall posted better than
21:13
Speaker 5: expected second quarter earnings, sending shares in the industrial supply
21:17
Speaker 5: company up by five percent. Ken View down by about
21:21
Speaker 5: a half a percent after the maker of thailand All
21:23
Speaker 5: saw its chief executive step down, with its board conducting
21:27
Speaker 5: a strategic review of the company. Apple has offered Formula
21:31
Speaker 5: one as much as one hundred and fifty million dollars
21:33
Speaker 5: a year for the US rights to air races, exceeding
21:36
Speaker 5: what it currently receives from Disney's ESPN. Apple down by
21:40
Speaker 5: over one percent and taking a look at the earnings
21:43
Speaker 5: calendar for this week tomorrow morning, major banks including JP, Morgan, Chase, Wells, Fargo,
21:48
Speaker 5: Blackrock and City Group will all report ahead of the open. Wednesday,
21:52
Speaker 5: Johnson and Johnson, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and ASML
21:55
Speaker 5: will report, And Thursday we have Netflix, Taiwan Semiconductor, and PEPSI,
22:00
Speaker 5: followed by Amex Charles Schwaben three m on Friday, I'm
22:04
Speaker 5: Tucker Silvan. That is Wall Street Watch.
22:06
Speaker 3: Since Tucker just left everyone hanging there, the the yield
22:10
Speaker 3: on the ten year treasury is barely budging up to
22:12
Speaker 3: four point.
22:14
Speaker 5: What I usually use is not there.
22:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, I saw the same thing on the same on
22:18
Speaker 3: the same site, I believe, So I don't know what
22:19
Speaker 3: happened there, Pugin, but that's that's where we are.
22:23
Speaker 4: Thank you, You're welcome.
22:24
Speaker 2: Interesting. Interesting you mentioned Apple's bid for those F one right,
22:29
Speaker 2: so I happen to see the F one movie did
22:31
Speaker 2: just week. Actually good good, not great, like it's entertaining.
22:36
Speaker 2: I didn't walk away from it being like disappointed, but
22:39
Speaker 2: it was like it wasn't something where I came away
22:42
Speaker 2: and said, wow, that was you know, transformative in any way,
22:47
Speaker 2: shape or form. It was. It was good, like it
22:48
Speaker 2: was exactly what you would expect.
22:50
Speaker 5: In the theater.
22:51
Speaker 2: In the theater because I want to see it, you know,
22:53
Speaker 2: with the big sound and the big screen and everything
22:56
Speaker 2: and all that played great. It was it was really good.
22:58
Speaker 5: It was good, but I want it like you're not
23:00
Speaker 5: selling it to me.
23:02
Speaker 2: It was good, you know, like it was a beat.
23:04
Speaker 3: Eighty three percent on Tomato meter, the the professional reviews,
23:09
Speaker 3: so that that seems like a bee.
23:11
Speaker 2: Put it this way. So it's directed by the same
23:13
Speaker 2: guy did Top Gun Maverick. I walked out of Maverick
23:16
Speaker 2: and was like, man, that's a movie. I walked down this.
23:21
Speaker 2: I'm like, it was good. It's good. Okay, you know,
23:24
Speaker 2: if it if it comes on you know TV two
23:27
Speaker 2: years from now, I'll fall asleep watching it. Happily. It's fine.
23:32
Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about copper. So we've got
23:34
Speaker 2: these copper terifts that are threatened to begin on August first,
23:39
Speaker 2: correct me if I'm wrong. I was looking around this morning.
23:41
Speaker 2: We've not yet seen a formal executive order on this,
23:44
Speaker 2: I do not believe so, so we still don't have
23:46
Speaker 2: anything in writing or of a social media indicating exactly
23:49
Speaker 2: what this is gonna be. And this matters for a
23:52
Speaker 2: couple of reasons. The first is, hey, is this the
23:55
Speaker 2: tax is this going to be a tariff on raw
23:57
Speaker 2: copper imports? So just you know, copper in it's you know,
24:01
Speaker 2: form before it gets put into other stuff, or is
24:04
Speaker 2: it going to be Hey, anything that has copper components,
24:07
Speaker 2: you have to calculate the value of that and then
24:09
Speaker 2: the tariff gets applied to that as well. Pretty important
24:12
Speaker 2: it is. And the reason why it's important is the
24:14
Speaker 2: US imports about half of the copper that we use,
24:17
Speaker 2: which is actually less than I thought it was going
24:19
Speaker 2: to be. When when I first I am surprised.
24:21
Speaker 3: By that US only produces i think six percent of
24:24
Speaker 3: the world's copper, but we're only importing that much that
24:28
Speaker 3: that is surprising to me. Chile is the largest producer
24:31
Speaker 3: of copper in the world.
24:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so I think looking at this, the questions are, Hey,
24:37
Speaker 2: is this actually going to go into effect, and if so,
24:40
Speaker 2: is it going to be on you know, the value
24:41
Speaker 2: of copper and finished products or just raw copper imports
24:45
Speaker 2: that you're bringing in. The Other piece is that this
24:49
Speaker 2: is not solvable. Let's say that you did want to
24:52
Speaker 2: produce one hundred percent of your copper demand domestically. This
24:56
Speaker 2: is not solvable anytime soon. No, you have to build
24:59
Speaker 2: a mining fas course several and there is a new
25:02
Speaker 2: mind that's actually being spooled up right now as we speak.
25:06
Speaker 2: It's an Arizona. It's on about six thousand acres of
25:08
Speaker 2: old farmland. It's going to open in twenty twenty eight,
25:13
Speaker 2: so it's a three year path. This is for something
25:15
Speaker 2: that's already permitted, approved, and like ready to go now,
25:19
Speaker 2: which means even if you wanted to get something else
25:23
Speaker 2: moving on this, you're probably looking out to like twenty
25:25
Speaker 2: thirty or twenty thirty one before you can finally get
25:29
Speaker 2: the thing spooled up.
25:30
Speaker 3: To me, it comes back to something that's pretty important
25:33
Speaker 3: with all of the tariffs, which is what is the
25:37
Speaker 3: end goal here? Is it that copper is such a
25:40
Speaker 3: critical material when it comes to manufacturing all sorts of
25:43
Speaker 3: important stuff that we need to have a good base
25:46
Speaker 3: of domestic production capability? I could buy that theory goes
25:50
Speaker 3: into a lot of important stuff copper does. It reminds
25:53
Speaker 3: me of magnets in that regard. Thank god, it's more
25:56
Speaker 3: diversified in terms of its supply than all of it
25:58
Speaker 3: in China. If that's the case, who's going to lend
26:04
Speaker 3: the money for a new copper mining facility without any
26:07
Speaker 3: certainty as to whether or not these tariffs are going
26:09
Speaker 3: to be in place for long term. You need some
26:11
Speaker 3: sort of assurances that, hey, yeah, we're going to have
26:14
Speaker 3: a feasible business model here that is not going to
26:16
Speaker 3: be wiped out a few years from now. The case
26:20
Speaker 3: that manufacturers are making in the United States is, look,
26:22
Speaker 3: if we face a fifty percent tariff rate on a
26:26
Speaker 3: critical component that goes into the items that we manufacture domestically,
26:30
Speaker 3: we are not going to be able to be competitive
26:32
Speaker 3: in manufacturing if we are what's something that has a
26:35
Speaker 3: whole everything has a lot of copper, an auto.
26:38
Speaker 4: Manufacturer great cars houses.
26:40
Speaker 3: If we are an auto manufacturer that wants to sell
26:43
Speaker 3: our cars not only to the American public, which is
26:45
Speaker 3: one thing, but abroad as well, we are not going
26:50
Speaker 3: to be able to manufacture inside a country that forces
26:53
Speaker 3: us to pay a fifty percent tariff rate. If we're
26:55
Speaker 3: going to sell cars to Canada, in that case, we
26:57
Speaker 3: will build a facility in Canada, or we'll just ship
27:00
Speaker 3: them from China or somewhere else that does not face
27:03
Speaker 3: that import tariff on copper prices. And so manufacturers are
27:06
Speaker 3: rightly concerned about how this actually affects their business because
27:09
Speaker 3: they don't just sell things generally speaking to a US consumer.
27:13
Speaker 2: Well, and I think the other piece we talked last
27:16
Speaker 2: week about this MP Materials deal. They are the company
27:20
Speaker 2: out of Mountain Pass, California that operates the only rare
27:24
Speaker 2: earth mine in the United States, and the DoD basically said, look,
27:28
Speaker 2: we're going to put four hundred million dollars into you.
27:29
Speaker 2: We're going to guarantee a certain amount that we're buying
27:32
Speaker 2: each year at a certain price, and that gives you
27:35
Speaker 2: some of that certainty so that the business can operate.
27:38
Speaker 2: And I look at that and say, look, this is
27:40
Speaker 2: what I would love to see more of. Is Hey,
27:43
Speaker 2: if you think that something is critically important for national
27:46
Speaker 2: security reasons, whether it's you know, DoD or whatever, the
27:50
Speaker 2: relevant agency is that can do it based on the
27:53
Speaker 2: specific need. Okay, why are we not using this model
27:58
Speaker 2: to fund development of that stuff domestically? Because like the
28:02
Speaker 2: templates right there with that MP Materials deal, which I
28:05
Speaker 2: think is just a fantastic setup for how to do this.
28:10
Speaker 2: The tariff piece, especially if it's done by executive order.
28:13
Speaker 2: Let's play out the string here. Let's say we get
28:14
Speaker 2: to twenty twenty eight. Let's say I don't even know
28:19
Speaker 2: who ends up, just play out the string like someone
28:21
Speaker 2: else gets a Democrat ends up getting elected in twenty
28:24
Speaker 2: eight newsome if that tariff goes away, what happens, what happens.
28:31
Speaker 2: And so this is why having something that's done by
28:34
Speaker 2: executive order in this fashion, it makes investors, you know,
28:38
Speaker 2: a little bit nervous because they say, Okay, what great,
28:41
Speaker 2: I'm gonna start building this copper.
28:43
Speaker 4: Mind, now I'm not gonna make a twenty year loan.
28:46
Speaker 2: Three years from now. What if it's not feasible anymore?
28:49
Speaker 2: And that's the challenging stuff that you face on this potentially,
28:53
Speaker 2: So we'll see where it goes. But we still don't
28:56
Speaker 2: have a ton of clarity on this copper piece. Let's
28:59
Speaker 2: take a quick brea when we come back. We got
29:01
Speaker 2: a great New York Times piece to talk about. It's
29:03
Speaker 2: titled you Saved and Saved for Retirement, Now you need
29:05
Speaker 2: a plan to cash out. We'll talk about some of
29:08
Speaker 2: the different things it discusses right after this.
29:11
Speaker 1: Find daily interviews and full shows of the Financial Exchange
29:14
Speaker 1: on our YouTube page. Like us on YouTube and get
29:17
Speaker 1: caught up on anything and everything you might have missed.
29:20
Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. The Financial Exchange
29:26
Speaker 1: is now available on your Alexis smart speaker has to
29:28
Speaker 1: play the Financial Exchange and catch up on anything you
29:31
Speaker 1: might have missed. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
29:46
Speaker 2: Piece of New York Times titled you saved and saved
29:50
Speaker 2: for retirement. Now you need a plan to cash out?
29:54
Speaker 2: And this is actually kind of interesting in that look,
29:59
Speaker 2: I've been working in the financial business for almost sixteen
30:02
Speaker 2: years now, and stuff that is basically breathing to me
30:07
Speaker 2: in terms of like how little I need to think
30:10
Speaker 2: about it now is stuff that if you haven't looked
30:13
Speaker 2: at this a lot, it's really complicated. I liken it too.
30:17
Speaker 2: When I was like twenty six twenty seven, I had
30:21
Speaker 2: to change the title on my car. I forget exactly why,
30:26
Speaker 2: but so I go into the DMV and I remember
30:28
Speaker 2: just sitting there like trying to just figure out how
30:31
Speaker 2: to do that and like what form was needed, what
30:32
Speaker 2: line do I get in? And I'm like, I am
30:34
Speaker 2: completely overwhelmed with this, And that was just changing the
30:36
Speaker 2: title on my car.
30:38
Speaker 4: Far few ramifications for screw in that.
30:40
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly, Like there's only so many things that can
30:42
Speaker 2: go wrong on that. This you talk about, you know,
30:45
Speaker 2: managing the withdrawal rate of your portfolio and claiming so
30:48
Speaker 2: security And it was kind of like an eye opening
30:51
Speaker 2: thing to me at that age. It's like, wow, if
30:53
Speaker 2: I like can't even figure out how to get this
30:55
Speaker 2: car title changed, how does anyone feel comfortable dealing with
31:00
Speaker 2: retirement planning? Because it's it's really complicated with all the
31:04
Speaker 2: different pieces you have to address.
31:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say that this tax treatment and how
31:12
Speaker 3: to contribute and then withdraw funds is among the more
31:16
Speaker 3: complicated big picture things that A has a really big
31:20
Speaker 3: impact and B in my opinion at least and in
31:23
Speaker 3: my experience.
31:24
Speaker 4: Gets screwed up pretty frequently. Yeah.
31:27
Speaker 3: You frequently will meet with somebody who you know it
31:29
Speaker 3: just is going it on their own and you look
31:32
Speaker 3: at their situation say, wow, you really should not be
31:35
Speaker 3: contributing to traditional retirement. You should be doing WROTH at
31:38
Speaker 3: this stage because of X, Y or Z reason or
31:40
Speaker 3: or the other way around. And likewise, when they start
31:43
Speaker 3: pulling the money out, the same thing frequently happens, like, oh, yeah,
31:46
Speaker 3: you're tapping that bucket right now when you are on
31:51
Speaker 3: medicare and not claiming so security that that is definitely
31:53
Speaker 3: not how I would be looking at it. And so
31:56
Speaker 3: the New York Times piece does a I think a
31:58
Speaker 3: good job of addressing.
31:59
Speaker 2: It, really does. This is one of the few mass
32:02
Speaker 2: market pieces that I see actually like getting into some
32:05
Speaker 2: really good discussions about things.
32:06
Speaker 4: Yeah.
32:07
Speaker 3: I think they certainly identify some of the issues. You know,
32:11
Speaker 3: they mentioned annuities in there, as you know, not quite
32:14
Speaker 3: the boogeyman that they used to be. They they I
32:19
Speaker 3: think identify the issue without obviously being able to propose
32:23
Speaker 3: a solution because they don't know each individual that they
32:26
Speaker 3: are writing this about. And ultimately that's kind of what
32:29
Speaker 3: it comes down to, because how often, Chuck, do we
32:33
Speaker 3: meet with two people that look pretty similar on paper,
32:37
Speaker 3: both in terms of career path and where they are
32:39
Speaker 3: in life and you know, stages of game, and you know,
32:42
Speaker 3: you would prescribe completely different solutions for how they go
32:46
Speaker 3: about funding their retirement based on their own personal situation. Right,
32:50
Speaker 3: nobody ever looks exactly the same. Right, you know, did
32:53
Speaker 3: both you and your spouse work all the way through
32:55
Speaker 3: your career or did one of you take some time
32:57
Speaker 3: off during that period of time? That's going to affect
32:59
Speaker 3: whether you take social Security at a certain time, what's
33:02
Speaker 3: the age gap between two loved ones. It is fairly complicated,
33:08
Speaker 3: and you know, unlike say, hey, I contributed to ROTH
33:13
Speaker 3: when I should have contributed to traditional for a few years,
33:17
Speaker 3: the withdrawal strategy used can actually really dramatically reshape your
33:22
Speaker 3: future financial situation when you get into your seventies and eighties. Yeah,
33:26
Speaker 3: really really dramatically reshape it. And so we bring this
33:30
Speaker 3: up because it is, like I said, one of the
33:32
Speaker 3: most I think common mistakes that I see individuals make
33:36
Speaker 3: is not what they invest in, not how they are
33:40
Speaker 3: building their investment portfolio, not how much they can be
33:44
Speaker 3: contributing to retirement, but rather when it comes time to retire,
33:48
Speaker 3: I have all these different buckets, maybe somes WROTH, maybe
33:51
Speaker 3: somes from the downsizing of my home that I did,
33:53
Speaker 3: some of the traditional four to one K, social security,
33:55
Speaker 3: maybe a little pension. What do I start when? What
33:59
Speaker 3: is going to be the most sound option that protects
34:02
Speaker 3: me the most. If you have questions like that, you're
34:05
Speaker 3: not alone. It's a pretty complicated issue. Give the folks
34:08
Speaker 3: at Armstrong Advisory Group a call. We have offices throughout
34:11
Speaker 3: New England. We meet with clients to discuss this exact subject.
34:15
Speaker 3: The numbers eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
34:20
Speaker 3: Let us walk you through what I considered to be
34:22
Speaker 3: one of the most complicated financial situations out there and
34:26
Speaker 3: one of the most common. The number again, eight hundred
34:29
Speaker 3: three to nine three four zero zero one.
34:32
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
34:34
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
34:37
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
34:40
Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
34:43
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
34:46
Speaker 1: advisory services.
34:48
Speaker 2: Let's see, we get Jamie Diamond talking about private credit.
34:50
Speaker 2: We already kind of talked about private credit, and.
34:54
Speaker 3: I guess the piece that we didn't mention is that
34:56
Speaker 3: he's going all in on it despite the fact that
34:57
Speaker 3: he considers it to be dangerous and one of the
34:59
Speaker 3: most risky pieces to the financial situation that we face
35:05
Speaker 3: right now.
35:05
Speaker 2: What I can tell you, what I can tell you
35:09
Speaker 2: at this point is there's two competing impulses that I
35:14
Speaker 2: have here. The first is Jamie Diamond generally runs a
35:18
Speaker 2: really tight ship from a risk management standpoint. Agreed but
35:22
Speaker 2: also when you're one of the last people to the game,
35:24
Speaker 2: usually you're getting the scraps that typically aren't as high
35:27
Speaker 2: a quality and aren't as aren't as safe.
35:33
Speaker 4: Also agreed.
35:34
Speaker 3: He pointed out specifically during the two thousand and eight
35:36
Speaker 3: financial crisis, when Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers got in late,
35:40
Speaker 3: made bad choices and bought these two a word that
35:44
Speaker 3: I can't use on the radio, little mortgage companies, leading
35:46
Speaker 3: eventually to everything blowing.
35:48
Speaker 2: Up, these two bleepy little mortgage companies.
35:51
Speaker 3: So I think he's eyes wide open about the position
35:55
Speaker 3: that he occupies here, and I think he is also
35:58
Speaker 3: probably sitting there saying, Hey, if this thing does blow up,
36:01
Speaker 3: there are a few companies that are better positioned than
36:03
Speaker 3: JP Morgan to pick up those scraps.
36:06
Speaker 2: If we need to, Can I tell you why I
36:09
Speaker 2: don't like it?
36:10
Speaker 3: Yeah? Which JP Morgan getting into this or the piece.
36:14
Speaker 2: No private credit I could do. We don't need to
36:16
Speaker 2: go down that road again, sure, JP Morgan Chase. And
36:20
Speaker 2: by the way, this is true of like any major
36:22
Speaker 2: bank at this point, they're basically an arm of the
36:25
Speaker 2: US government with a different logo on them that's allowed
36:28
Speaker 2: to lend you know, they can't differentiate in any way,
36:31
Speaker 2: shape or form. They all have to like basically do
36:33
Speaker 2: the exact same thing, so none of them have anything special.
36:36
Speaker 2: And yet if things go bad for them on this you, me,
36:39
Speaker 2: Tucker and everyone listening is left holding the bag because
36:41
Speaker 2: we know that these are institutions that are too big
36:44
Speaker 2: to fail.
36:44
Speaker 4: YEP.
36:45
Speaker 2: Generally the state of banking regulation right now is a
36:47
Speaker 2: bank like JP Morgan probably won't even get to the
36:50
Speaker 2: bailout stage because things can't go that badly for them
36:54
Speaker 2: right anymore?
36:55
Speaker 4: Like if it's that's the entire idea of too big
36:57
Speaker 4: to fail.
36:57
Speaker 3: By the way, yes we don't have to bail you
37:00
Speaker 3: because we are going to regulate you in such a
37:01
Speaker 3: way that we would never need to.
37:03
Speaker 2: But when you start hearing like talk of stuff like this,
37:05
Speaker 2: all I know is that there are two things that
37:08
Speaker 2: banks can do at any particular point in time. It's
37:11
Speaker 2: the same story over and over in terms of how
37:13
Speaker 2: banks blow up. They either lend too much or they
37:16
Speaker 2: securitize improperly. It's just like what are you lending to
37:20
Speaker 2: and how are you securitizing? And in this case, it
37:23
Speaker 2: is a new and exciting way of lending that you
37:25
Speaker 2: can then securitize. And all I know is, look, it
37:29
Speaker 2: might not be JP Morgan that ends up blowing up,
37:30
Speaker 2: because they'll figure out how to get the stuff off
37:32
Speaker 2: their balance sheet and into someone else's. But when they're
37:35
Speaker 2: talking about doing this, if private credit does blow up,
37:38
Speaker 2: they're going to be contributing to the bubble in terms
37:41
Speaker 2: of their contributions here. And that doesn't make me feel great.
37:45
Speaker 2: I don't know, It's just I get it. I understand it.
37:50
Speaker 2: You know, you're beholden to your shareholders. You see everyone
37:52
Speaker 2: else making money you got to jump into. But it
37:56
Speaker 2: feels a little late in the private credit game. Based
37:59
Speaker 2: on how I'm hearing it talked about. It is like, oh,
38:01
Speaker 2: we want a democratize access to this and this and that,
38:04
Speaker 2: and anytime I hear right, when I hear democratize access,
38:07
Speaker 2: I hear we want other people to lose money to yep.
38:11
Speaker 2: You know, like it's it's just what hits my head.
38:14
Speaker 2: At least, let's take a quick break. We got more
38:16
Speaker 2: coming up in just a bit.