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Biden Campaign Unloads on Trump's Conviction · Pod Save America

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Bye.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:21
  Speaker 3: I'm Jon Lovett.
• 0:22
  Speaker 4: I'm Tommy Vitor.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: On today's show, the Biden campaign launches a big ad
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: campaign that goes hard at Trump's felony conviction. Trump courts
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: black voters in Detroit, but a new poll shows many
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: black voters aren't sold on him or Biden. The rules
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: for next week's CNN debate are set, and more details
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: trickle out about Trump's VP search with just a month
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: to go. But first... Love it. Welcome back.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Great to be back.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Your first full show.
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is it.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Now that you've prepared and read the news.
• 0:48
  Speaker 5: Yeah, my takes have been kind of in the cask,
• 0:52
  Speaker 5: developing their flavors, pulling that sort of oaky vibe. So
• 0:57
  Speaker 5: you can look forward to that.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Wow, exciting. So we gave you a quiz about the
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: news last week. Then you got the rest of the
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: week off. It's really nice just easing back into it here.
• 1:06
  Speaker 5: Yeah, like a warm tub.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: We do have a second assignment for you. Democracy or Else,
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: this book. It's out a week from today.
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: A week from today.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: A week from today. As a reminder, this is a
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: book that you wrote.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, co-wrote.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: With me and Tommy and Josh.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: And Josh, yeah, yeah.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Is that ringing any bells?
• 1:21
  Speaker 6: No, no, it is.
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: It's right here.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: You want to do a pitch?
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, sure, I'll pitch it.
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: Do a pitch.
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: Listen, all right.
• 1:27
  Speaker 5: We worked really hard on this book. And yes, all
• 1:29
  Speaker 5: the profits from this book go to Vote Save America
• 1:32
  Speaker 5: and organizing on the ground to help protect our democracy.
• 1:35
  Speaker 5: Even if it weren't going to a good cause, you
• 1:37
  Speaker 5: would really like this book.
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: It is actually funny.
• 1:40
  Speaker 5: Like, I feel like there's a lot of people who
• 1:43
  Speaker 5: are really funny and cynical about politics. And there's a
• 1:45
  Speaker 5: lot of really earnest doofs out there, you know, crossing
• 1:48
  Speaker 5: the Delaware and every goddamn tweet. But we worked really
• 1:51
  Speaker 5: hard to try to make something that was helpful, useful, entertaining, funny, hopeful,
• 1:56
  Speaker 5: without being like kind of saccharine, you know, like a
• 1:59
  Speaker 5: lot of like a lot of the content out there.
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: And it's illustrated. So you can just flip through it.
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: Like what we all do with The New Yorker. We
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: know there are articles in there, but whatever.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: I was going to say, this is 160... Mostly funny pages.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: This is 171 pages plus illustrations. Plus illustrations. And the
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: font type is pretty large.
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: And I feel like when we're all going to be
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: paying attention to the news in a way that can
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: suck the soul right out of your body, this is
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: a really fun way to remember... why you cared about politics.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: In the first place.
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: How about that?
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: You're supposed to ask Tommy what his favorite part about
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: writing the book with you is.
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: Oh, and Tommy, what's your favorite part about writing the
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: book with me?
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: Every minute. I think... The end. When it was over.
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: Here's the thing I think people will like about this book.
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: Everyone has their own unique amount of politics they can
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: stomach or that they want. You might just be looking
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: to get better informed. You might be trying to figure
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: out how to vote. You might be trying to figure
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: out how to give donations more efficiently. Or maybe you
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: want to run for office yourself. We got you covered
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: step by step in this book. There's a chapter for you.
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: So read it and you will laugh along the way
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: and you'll learn something.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: Also, there's some embarrassing stories about us. And there's really
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: smart advice from people who are a lot smarter than us.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: And I'll just say one more thing.
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: If you're listening to this and you've been listening to
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: us for a long time, Just do us a goddamn favor.
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: And buy the book. We've been doing this podcast. We'll
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: give you a refund for every episode. Oh, that's right.
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: It's free.
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: We were losing to Kristi Noem and Bill Maher at
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: one point on the rankings.
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: Because we want to get this on the New York
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: Times bestseller list because that's how the book gets into
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: other bookstores and in front of a lot of people
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: that might not otherwise come across it.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: And that's how democracy is saved, ultimately.
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: Yeah, it's saved at the fucking airport Hudson goddamn news.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: It's democracy or else, and right now, else is ahead, so... Yeah,
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: Elsa's doing pretty good. Crooked.com slash books. Check it out
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: wherever you like to buy books, and you can preorder
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: it right now. All right, enough of that. Let's get
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: to the actual news. We have spent a lot of
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: time on this show pontificating about how hard the Biden
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: campaign would go at Trump's conviction or whether they'd really
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: do it at all. Monday morning, we got a pretty
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: clear answer. Campaign announced that they're putting $ 50 million behind
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: a new ad buy that features this new spot called
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Character Matters. Let's listen.
• 4:28
  Speaker 7: In the courtroom, we see Donald Trump for who he is.
• 4:31
  Speaker 7: He's been convicted of 34 felonies, found liable for sexual assault,
• 4:36
  Speaker 7: and he committed financial fraud. Meanwhile, Joe Biden's been working,
• 4:41
  Speaker 7: lowering health care costs and making big corporations pay their
• 4:45
  Speaker 7: fair share. This election is between a convicted criminal who's
• 4:49
  Speaker 7: only out for himself and a president who's fighting for
• 4:53
  Speaker 7: your family.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: I'm Joe Biden, and I approve this message. Spicy.
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: A lot of bass, too. I didn't hear as much
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: bass when I watched it at home.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: There's also Trump's mugshot in there, which I know that
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: the Trump campaign likes and the Biden campaign likes. Everyone
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: likes the mugshot.
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: And I like that the voice, that there's a deep
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: kind of like barren, hearkening voice doing the thing.
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: That's a movie trailer guy. Sounds like.
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: Tommy, what'd you think of the ad?
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: I mean, I liked it because I think it not
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: only mentions the 34 convictions, but also they draw on
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: the E. Jean Carroll case. They draw in the financial
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: fraud issues. And so the ad in its totality perfectly
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: dovetails with Biden's message that this is a guy who's
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: in it for himself. Joe Biden is working for you.
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: What is missing from this spot is a Joe Biden
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: second term agenda, but you can't get everything into a
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: 30 second ad. So it's, you know, that'll come later.
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: You know, you're right. They're going to spend real money.
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: I don't know if it's necessarily on this ad, but
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: in June they say $ 50 million and That's a good thing.
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: But the Biden campaign has spent 53 million so far
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: this year. It hasn't really moved the needle yet. So
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: that's kind of the other side of that coin. So
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: we got to see these numbers move a bit.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: Love it. I like I like that a lot.
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: I also it just does all speaks to, I think,
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: the challenge you're trying to address, which is they know
• 6:02
  Speaker 5: they need to make salient for people the threat that
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: Trump poses, remind people who Trump is. But also they
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: have this catch 22, which is there's a lot of
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: concerns about. about Joe Biden's age, especially among people who
• 6:13
  Speaker 5: don't know what Joe Biden achieved. If you don't know
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: what Biden achieved, you might think it was because he
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: is too old. And so they are trying to, I think,
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: show through a contrast, not just who Donald Trump is,
• 6:24
  Speaker 5: but trying to get it slowly kind of seed in
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: people's minds that an affirmative case for Joe Biden is
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: one people will get behind.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: They're also solving the issue of, do you talk about
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: his accomplishments or do you talk about his second term
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: agenda with the gerunds? Which you'll probably hear a lot
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: more of. He's helping lower health care costs, which he
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: did do over the last four years, but also wants
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: to do more of. And he's making corporations pay their
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: fair share, which of course is his entire tax agenda,
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: some of which he has been able to enact, but
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: a lot of he hasn't.
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: We all know the power of the gerund. When you're
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: in your house and you know you're going to be
• 7:02
  Speaker 5: late to meet a friend, you're coming.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: You're coming. There you go. I would bet that this
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: ad tested very well. Particularly because it is a contrast ad.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: And just for people who don't know, they've been testing
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: all these ads and all these Democratic groups, progressive groups.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: And it turns out there's the positive ad about Biden,
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: there's a negative ad about Trump, and then there's the
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: type of ad that contrasts Biden and Trump. And those
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: ads always do the best. So you don't want just
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: the positive, you don't want just the negative, you want
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: a little bit of both. And that's what this does.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: And it's great that they broadened it out from just hey,
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: he's a convicted felon and that's all there is to
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: talk about. He's in it for himself and Joe Biden's
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: in it for you. And here's why, you know, so
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: I thought it was a really good ad. It's definitely
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: an evolution from earlier messages from the Biden campaign about
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: how the only way to keep Trump out of office
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: is at the ballot box, which I think was one
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: of their first reactions to Trump being on trial. How
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: do you guys think they got from there to this ad? Yeah.
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: Well, so I feel like I feel like there's two
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: pieces to it. One is just they especially early on
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: need to remind the kind of people that will be donating, volunteering,
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: paying attention, that they can't rely on the justice system,
• 8:15
  Speaker 5: that actually we need to make sure that everyone's doing
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: everything they can to defeat Trump in the election. But also,
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: I do think like they are grappling with the challenge of, yes,
• 8:28
  Speaker 5: a big part of the case against Donald Trump are
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: his character flaws, his racism, his xenophobia, his lack of discipline,
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: all the things that Americans hate about Donald Trump, the
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: chaos and the noise and all the rest, while at
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: the same time knowing that a critical part of the
• 8:44
  Speaker 5: electorate that they need to reach are people that have
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: already decided they can't stand Donald Trump, but are cynical
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: about politics and dissatisfied with both options. And I think
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: in this ad, you see them kind of finding their
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: way to a message that tries to think about both.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: So it's been a little more than two weeks since
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: the conviction, which is usually how long it takes for
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: big news events to permeate the electorate and start showing
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: up in the polling numbers. What are you guys' takeaways
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: from the latest polling, Tommy?
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: So the most important finding I think I've seen was
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: from a recent Politico poll that found 21% of independents
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: both said the conviction was an important factor in their
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: vote and it made them less likely to support Trump.
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: So with people who are persuadable voters... They care 20% about,
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: a fifth of them basically, care a lot about the
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: fact that he was found guilty and are turned off
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: by that fact. Overall, it's a little more of a
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: mixed bag. You've got a third of respondents saying it
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: won't have any impact on their vote. A third say
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: it will make them less likely to support Trump. 17%
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: said it will make them more likely to support Trump.
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: So there are definitely some MAGA types who are energized
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: by this. But there's hope there that this could help
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: move persuadal voters. However, it's clear also that Trump's message
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: has resonated where he calls it rigged because you've got
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: 43% of voters saying the rationale for the case itself
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: was to help Biden. It's not a majority, but there's
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: enough people out there who think, you know, this is lawfare.
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: This is just, you know, Trump's critics going after him
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: through the courts.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Love it.
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah. No, I thought the same thing.
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: And I also like in looking through the polls, I
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: kind of put a lot of numbers together and I
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: kind of, Like you kind of just have to, it's
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: for me anyway, I'm just like throwing away the kind
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: of Republican side and Democratic side of the poll. Cause
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: it's like, what does it mean to say to a
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: Democrat who's fucking fully anti-Trump in their bones is less likely.
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: To vote for Trump or nothing.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: I think about that all the time. If someone, if
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: I took a poll and someone said, does the conviction
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: make you less likely to To vote for Donald Trump,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: I would say no.
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: No, I'm 100 percent.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: I was never going to vote for him ever.
• 10:42
  Speaker 8: Right.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: But which I'm sure is what the bulk of Republicans
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: and Democrats are saying, both on opposite sides.
• 10:46
  Speaker 8: Right.
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: They don't even know what they're I feel like it's
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: a question that it's like philosophically has no answer. And
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: so I think some Democrats are trying to be good
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: polling respondents and being like, I'm even less likely than
• 10:55
  Speaker 5: I was before, even though I fucking donated to Pete Buttigieg.
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: But I do think, yes.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Buddha judge catching strays. No, no, no.
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: That's a pro Buddha judge point. That's not anti, but
• 11:04
  Speaker 5: I just got to keep an eye because I know
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: I made my mistakes.
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: He's got a list.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: But yeah.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: Your next K-5.
• 11:11
  Speaker 5: Even 44% of independents thought the case was brought to
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: help Joe Biden. And also, by the way, even though
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: almost every person has heard about this trial, still a
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: third of independents say they don't understand the case well.
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: So I do think, yes, the Trump noise has really mattered.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: So two polls recently came out about this blueprint polling.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: Ninety four percent of voters have heard. I think that
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: is probably surprised me. That surprised me, too. Now, it
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: is a touch lower with the groups that are probably
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: going to be the swing groups in this election who
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: are not paying as much attention, who Biden's struggling with.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: So only 89 percent of independents, 85 percent of 2020 nonvoters.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: 84% of Latino voters and 89% of younger voters. Still
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: a lot of people, but like slightly less on those groups.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: I mean, it sounds like I've heard of Bridgerton and
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: I just know they're hot and have sex.
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: So really, am I informed? You know what I'm saying?
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: There's also some reporting that gets done there. News gathering.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: News gathering. In Bridgerton. In Bridgerton?
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: They do news gathering?
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah.
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: Lady Whistledown.
• 12:11
  Speaker 8: Wow.
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: Fascinating.
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: I'm getting some nods from the couch.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: Thank you.
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: Great.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: Thank you. The groups that were overperforming on less likely
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: to vote for Trump. So more than the overall number
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: of 29% in the blueprint poll, 20, 20 non-voters, which
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: again is the ones that Biden's was struggling with young voters,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: black voters, 51% of black voters in that poll said
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: less likely and 39% of Latino voters blueprint also did
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: something interesting, which is they juxtaposed two statements and said, um,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: which is a more persuasive reason to vote against Donald Trump.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: He tried to repeal the affordable care act and wants
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: to again, Or he's a convicted felon and doesn't have
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: the character. I would have, if you had had me
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: guess on that question, I would have said that the
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: ACA would have won out big time. And with some
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: voters it did, but independents were split on that. Non-voters, ACA.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Black voters conviction by a big margin. And Latinos were
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: split as well, which I thought was kind of interesting.
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it is.
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: It does go to the conversation we were just having
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: to about like, how do you talk about this when
• 13:12
  Speaker 5: some of the most important you need to people you
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: need to reach have already kind of decided that they
• 13:16
  Speaker 5: find Donald Trump personally abhorrent, but are much more worried
• 13:19
  Speaker 5: about like the actual policy stakes.
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: So the big lesson is that, you know, I think
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: we live in a world where we assume that just
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: hearing about this verdict automatically tells you that this is
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: disqualifying for a person to be president United States. And
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: that's just not how this information is being received by
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: a lot of the electorate. Like you really have to message.
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: what this means, what it says about Donald Trump, his character.
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: It doesn't have to be some super complicated, sophisticated messaging.
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: But Donald Trump is going to just say, this was rigged.
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: I was set up.
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: It's all political. It's not real.
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: They're fighting for, you know, they're going after me because
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: I'm fighting for you, that kind of stuff. And we
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: have to counteract that.
• 13:52
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: And look, I don't necessarily know if his message is,
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: that message is working, that it's rigged. But clearly what
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: you're hearing from some voters is like, yeah, he's a
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: convicted felon and he sucks. But I already knew he sucked.
• 14:04
  Speaker 8: Yeah. And.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: if I have a problem, it's because like, you know,
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: cost of living or this or that or whatever, immigration,
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: whatever the reason you're not for Joe Biden is. And
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: we haven't talked about the polling overall, but, you know,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: Biden gained a few points in the polls following the conviction.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: I think right now, as we're recording this, it's pretty
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: close to where it was before the conviction. Maybe Biden's
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: still like a half a point up. Ann Seltzer, best
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: pollster in the country, A-plus rated poll out of Iowa,
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: Trump's winning Iowa, 50 to 32%. He's got an 18
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: point lead over Joe Biden in Iowa, just for reference,
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: Trump won Iowa by eight points.
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: That would be bad.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Eight points in 2020. So a 10 point swing in
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: Iowa makes you worried about Wisconsin, which has a very
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: similar electorate, other Midwestern states, Michigan to a lesser extent,
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: Pennsylvania to a lesser extent. But that's a, that's a yikes.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: That's a, that's a, that's a not good.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: Because that poll is usually fairly accurate. So, and again, it's,
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: Trump is at 50, sort of close to where he got,
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: what his number was. And Biden, as in all these polls,
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: his number is the one that is much, much lower
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: because you have a bunch of people either who are
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: Biden voters saying, I'm going to vote third party or
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to vote at all or I'm unsure. Yeah.
• 15:16
  Speaker 5: And by the way, like all of this, like the
• 15:19
  Speaker 5: fact that when a former president is convicted of multiple felonies,
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: there is an entire media or apparatus and a ton
• 15:27
  Speaker 5: of Republican politicians who go on television and just shrug
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: it off. like those shrugs matter, right? It becomes then
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: just a part of the political process, a part of
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: the debate. And this is now something completely and totally unacceptable,
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: just becomes another piece of sort of partisan back and forth.
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: And for somebody who's not paying attention that much and
• 15:44
  Speaker 5: not thinking about politics every day, I think it's like
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: not hard for that to be internalized. I mean, some
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: of the most engaged reporters in the world have internalized it.
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: So it's not hard to imagine people that aren't consuming
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: this all the time are like, well, You know, nothing
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: is fucking changing. Trump was unacceptable yesterday. He's just as
• 15:59
  Speaker 5: unacceptable today.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah. It's also the difference between something being done to
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: Trump and Trump doing something that could hurt actual voters. Right.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: And so they can see the conviction as something that
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: has happened to him, something that he did bad, but
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: not necessarily as something that he is doing to someone,
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: which is why I think that Biden ad made the
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: turn to like he's only in it for himself.
• 16:17
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: So some evidence that the conviction may hurt Trump with
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: certain groups of voters, including black voters. But Biden's weakness
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: there is still one of his biggest challenges. And the
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: Trump campaign is doing everything they can to exploit that.
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: On Saturday, Trump visited a black church in Detroit and
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: then spoke at the Turning Points USA conference. The audience
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: at the church appeared to be largely white people. And
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: TPUSA is known for its ties to white supremacists. So
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: that's a big to be sure clause that I just
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: threw in there. But Trump has never been a fan
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: of consistency or discipline, as you can tell from some
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: of his remarks at these events.
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: We don't need votes.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: We got more votes than anybody's ever had. I think
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: you should take a cognitive test like I did.
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: I took a cognitive.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: Test and I aced it.
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: Dr.
• 17:10
  Speaker 6: Ronnie.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Dr.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: Ronnie Johnson.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: Does everyone know Ronnie Johnson, congressman from Texas? And the
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: people coming over the border, all those billions of people.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: They're inflicting tremendous harm to our black population and to
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: our Hispanic population.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: Lovett, what do you make of the Trump campaign's emphasis
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: on black and Latino outreach this time around? We've talked
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: about this a lot in the last couple of weeks.
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: This is your first go at it.
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: We should note, though, that Trump got the name of
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: the doctor wrong when he was demanding that Joe Biden
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: take a cognitive test and talk about how he is.
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: It's Ronny Jackson. It is.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: I'm glad you pointed that out. Just for listeners who
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: weren't sure who Ronny Jackson is.
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: You're not wrong.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: When you're going to accuse someone of cognitive decline, you
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: want to get the doctor's name right.
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: Look, I think Trump and the Trump campaign are exaggerating
• 18:03
  Speaker 5: their support because they know it's in their interest to
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: kind of make the case that they're doing well amongst younger, uh,
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: not just black voters, younger, they're younger, white men, younger
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: black men, younger Hispanic men.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: Because that's a big part of like, they don't need to,
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: they don't need to do what they claim they're doing.
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: They just need to do better, uh, than they did
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: in 2020 for, for Donald Trump to win. And they also,
• 18:26
  Speaker 5: by the way, like they're just putting him out there, right?
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: Like he's just going to places that Joe.
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: Biden isn't going.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah. They're getting the headlines.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: And so they're getting these stories and they know that
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: it is obviously, uh, great fodder for the political media
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: to be talking about this issue. And by the way,
• 18:39
  Speaker 5: there is real weakness in the polls that justifies this debate.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: And this conversation.
• 18:43
  Speaker 5: So I think that that's what's going on here.
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Trump's not necessarily doing better with black voters.
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: I think Joe Biden is not doing as well as
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: he needs to be, is really the story here. Trump
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: is making inroads with younger men. And I think that's
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: because of a deliberate, smart, concerted strategy that involves a
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: lot of different things. There's kind of like the The
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: MMA angle, there's a crypto policy angle. We can talk
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: about that more later. But I think if you talk
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: to the Biden campaign, they will tell you that they
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: are essentially maxed out in their support with white voters,
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: but they have a lot of work to do to
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: persuade voters of color, especially black and Latino men. And
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: this is, it's good that they know this. It's a
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: big change from a lot of recent elections where Democrats
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: have often been criticized for not communicating with voters of
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: color until the very end of a campaign and then
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: just doing so with a get out the vote message.
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: Now they have to focus on persuasion and they have
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: to do it early. And that's good. You know, it's
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: good that they figured that out now and that they're,
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: of course, correcting early. But it's still a challenge to
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: win back these voters because, you know, they're frustrated by
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: the same things everybody else is, the economy, inflation. They're
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: concerned about President Biden's age, etc. And he's got to
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: win their support.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: And I think some Democrats might ask, like, well, but
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: don't they understand how fucking racist Donald Trump is, right?
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: He went to Turning Points USA, this conference in Detroit,
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: where white supremacist Nick Fuentes was turned away. He showed
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: up with his supporters and they finally, they've let him
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: in in the past. They finally got smart and decided
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: to turn him away but you know charlie kirk the
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: founder of turning points usa and introduced donald trump in
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: arizona just last week you know he said he thinks
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: twice about flying with black pilots he said uh the
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: civil rights act was a huge mistake and then martin
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: luther king jr was awful this is like the big
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: organizing group for the trump campaign so you know there's
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: that but like i i do think that and you
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: know we've tommy and i have both talked to terrence
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: woodbury uh who's done a lot of focus groups with
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: black voters i did for the wilderness you did for
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: pod save america And he'll say that, you know, a
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: lot of black voters like, yeah, of course he's racist.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: We know that he's racist. We're not like, but like
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: right now, our lives haven't changed that much over the
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: last four years. And we're still worried about high cost
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: of living. And so maybe they're not backing Trump, but
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: they don't know that they want to back Joe Biden.
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: And so it really is incumbent upon Joe Biden and
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: the campaign, and they know this and Democrats to not
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: just be like, oh, don't you know that Trump is racist,
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: but to be more like, actually, this is what Joe
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: Biden has done. And this is the work he's going
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: to do.
• 21:09
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: I mean, if you look at the poll, there's not
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: some ideological shift going on. Donald Trump remains incredibly unpopular
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: among black voters. Barack Obama reigns incredibly popular amongst black voters.
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: The argument that Trump's making that somehow because somehow he
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: considers himself a victim of the justice system, that somehow
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: that's going to create some groundwell of support, just as
• 21:31
  Speaker 5: unpopular as Donald Trump is. So it is pretty clear.
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: And it's like a I feel like what we've been
• 21:34
  Speaker 5: talking about this whole episode, like there are just a
• 21:37
  Speaker 5: lot of people who need to be persuaded not just
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: to vote against Donald Trump, but to.
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: Vote for Joe Biden.
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: Also, it's just worth noting that Trump's message in Detroit
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: was demagoguing immigrants. He said, you know, they're coming across
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: the border, all these millions of people. They're inflicting tremendous
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: harm to our black population, to our Hispanic population. So
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: he's using this divisive anti-immigrant rhetoric to try to appeal
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: to both black and Hispanic voters. It's also worth noting
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: that behind the scenes, Trump and his allies are doing
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: everything they can to make it harder for voters of
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: color to actually vote, to register to vote, to turn
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: out on election day. They're trying to shrink the number
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: of days you can vote. They're trying to get rid
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: of vote by mail in some states. And so, you know,
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: they're definitely like doing a public messaging effort at the
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: front by going to certain venues. And, you know, I
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: guess apparently saying TPUSA is a, you know, African-American outreach organization. But,
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: you know, the truth is they're actually trying to suppress
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: voters of color primarily.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: But, you know, your point, Tommy, about the anti-immigrant message, like,
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: first of all, there's a long history of Republican politicians
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: doing that and trying to drive a wedge between black
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: and Latino communities, usually with immigration by saying, you know,
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: immigrants are coming to take your jobs. It's also now.
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: there is some evidence that it's working with Latino voters who,
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: if you look at polls of Latino and black voters,
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: their views on immigration are broadly in line with a
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: lot of white voters, certainly not Republican white voters, but
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: white voters overall. We saw this with, you know, support
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: for Biden's border move, right? Which there was no difference
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: between racial groups when they pulled that. And so, you know,
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: Trump knows what he's doing, but I also think he's,
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: the Trump campaign, I don't, think they believe that Trump
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: is going to get, you know, 20% of the black
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: vote this time as some of the polls show. But
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: I do think that they are doing this to encourage
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: and fuel cynicism among black and Latino voters who may
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: have voted for Joe Biden in the past or may
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: be undecided now and either they want them to go
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: third party or they want them to stay home because
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: that's still a win for them, right? It's not as
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: good as voting for Donald Trump. But that's why you
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: also heard Trump in these events, he started hitting Biden
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: for his crime bill back in the early 90s. He
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: brought back super predator, right? Like part of this is
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: just you talked about actual like legal voter suppression efforts.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: But part of this is just don't bother. You know,
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: neither of these neither of these two guys are good.
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: Might as well just stay home.
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: I feel like there's two parts.
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: I feel like that that is the argument that that
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: that is just purely just kind of like muddy the waters,
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: create noise out there. But then I think basically for
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: a broad set of voters that they view as kind
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: of like less likely voters generally, not just of all races,
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: of all age independence, like there is this immigration, the border,
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: it all becomes a kind of strong versus weak argument, crime,
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: all of this for like less ideological, less engaged voters
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: that Joe Biden's age, that inflation and costs, the chaos
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: of the border, all of that is A collection of
• 24:43
  Speaker 5: things that prove a kind of weakness. And Trump, you know,
• 24:46
  Speaker 5: they have a lot of amnesia about what happened. There's
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: a collective amnesia about what Trump was like. But that Trump,
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: for all of his sins and for all of his
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: failures and for all of his vices, was tough, was strong.
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: And I think that's like kind of a big part
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: of what he's doing when he does these events. He
• 25:00
  Speaker 5: says the word strength 50 times when he speaks in
• 25:03
  Speaker 5: front of these audiences.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: And I think that's like a big part of it
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: for him.
• 25:05
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: And those and look, the USA Today Suffolk polls, which
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: it's great that a pollster did polls of just black
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, because then we've been talking
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: about these tiny subsamples and larger polls, which aren't really useful.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: So the fact that they did this is helpful. And,
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: you know, Trump did gain in these polls a few
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: percentage points. with black voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania. But
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: the majority of Biden's steep decline, which, you know, it
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: was 76% said they voted for Biden in 2020. And
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: of those voters in the poll who said that, it's
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: now only 56% are supporting him in Pennsylvania and 54%
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: in Michigan.
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: He's done 20 points in both states.
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So that is not great. And again, these same voters,
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: because it's, are they, did they suddenly become conservative?
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: No.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: Obama's approval rating in those states among black voters they
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: polled is 88%. percent and 84 percent in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: So a lot of work to do on that one.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: We got ourselves a debate next week, guys. Kudos if
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: you could hear that sentence without getting a pit in
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: your stomach.
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: I truly still can't believe it. It is fucking June.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: Is it really going to happen? I guess it is.
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: I think. I mean, it seems like this is really happening. CNN,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: which is hosted in the debate, just reported that the
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: rules have been finalized, agreed to. This is what the
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: rules are that both camps have agreed to. 90-minute debate
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: with two commercial breaks, no talking to advisors during the breaks,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: no props, no notes written in advance, the podium position
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: designated by a coin flip who goes on what side,
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: no studio audience to play off of, and mics automatically
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: muted except during a candidate's allotted time to speak. It
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: also looks like RFK Jr. will not make this round.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: CNN says he's only at the required polling threshold in
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: three national polls instead of the required four. And he's
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: definitely not yet on enough state ballots to be able
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: to actually win the presidency, which you need to do
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: to be able to make this debate. So do any
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: of these rules, do you think they should change the
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: way Joe Biden prepares for this debate?
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: Do you think you can like do hand signals like
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: a third base coach? Oh, yeah.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, or maybe like go to the bathroom ahead of
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: time and like leave a little.
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: Note on the urinal. And write your notes and put
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: it under the toilet seat lid.
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: Remember when that chess player was accused of having messages
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: sent via Morse code through some sort of anal device?
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: I'm just, I'm not.
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: Was that true? Was that false? No one knows.
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: Whether it's true or false, it's a great idea.
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: Well, George Bush was accused of having like a battery
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: pack on his back.
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: They never explained that shirt, that jacket. We never got
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: to the bottom of what was going on back there.
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: We got a truth there.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: I mean.
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: What was on that jacket?
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: If Joe Biden is judged the winner of this debate,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: it doesn't matter about these rules. I mean, the conspiracies
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: will be just everywhere.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Rules.
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: Here's my question on the rules. So whether or not
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: the mics are muted, I'm just imagining... I mean, I
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: wonder how far away they are from each other. Because
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: you have to imagine Donald Trump is going to be
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: just shouting whatever it is he shouts through the duration
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: of Joe Biden's points. And it's going to be incumbent
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: on Biden... to not let that rattle him, not interrupt himself,
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: which he likes to do a lot. Joe Biden often
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: interrupts himself. Going to have to take the earpiece out.
• 28:12
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there's that.
• 28:14
  Speaker 8: Honestly.
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: I also thought, too, about, you know, there's not going
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: to be an audience, but are a bunch of Trump
• 28:20
  Speaker 5: staffers going to still try to applaud and pull shit
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: like that?
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: Oh, I don't think they'll. I think they're going to
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: be pretty.
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: I hope so.
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: Look, the last time these men debated, Trump literally tried
• 28:32
  Speaker 5: to kill him with COVID. I'm at the point where
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: I'm like, will they release a fucking sack of minks
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: in there?
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: Like, I don't know what's going to happen.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: Who will enforce the rules is the question. Honestly, I
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: have more faith in Jake Tapper and Dana Bash and
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: CNN than I do the fucking commission on presidential debates
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: that both campaigns had fuck off to once and for all.
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: Jake and Dana have like a ruler slapping hands.
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: Setting up Jim Lehrer's bones and just letting these people
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: yell at each other for two hours.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: This is better. I think the big thing that the...
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: I think that the biggest... I mean, the no mics
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: or the mics muted is a big deal. I kind
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: of think the audience is an even bigger deal, no audience,
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: because there's always an audience where they're like, we've told
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: everyone not to applaud, whatever, and it never works, right?
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: So you just got to get them out of there completely.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: But with no audience, it makes the debate zinger like
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: a lot less important because you... When you deliver the
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: zinger and no one is laughing and no one is
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: oohing or aahing or applauding, like, it doesn't really make
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: the zinger that important at all.
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: Love to leave it every week.
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: There's a reason sitcoms have laugh tracks, right?
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: That's right. And, like, neither of these guys is, both
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: of these guys need crowds to react. to like any
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: attempts at humor. And so I do think that that's,
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: you know, you got to put the zingers away at
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: a time like this. Yes.
• 29:46
  Speaker 5: I do think on the other side, I do like,
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: I remember the debate between John Edwards and Dick Cheney.
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: And it was this very staid and collegial affair that
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: I think ultimately benefited the Republicans because we were trying
• 30:01
  Speaker 5: to paint them as dangerous and extreme in all the
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: ways that they were at the time back when that
• 30:06
  Speaker 5: was the worst they could do. And I do worry, too,
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: that like not having it like we have seen multiple
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: kinds of the Donald Trump that the campaign wants is
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: the Donald Trump that was in Iowa kind of controlled,
• 30:19
  Speaker 5: talking about being a husband and father, being very kind
• 30:23
  Speaker 5: of generous and The Donald Trump that Donald Trump wants
• 30:25
  Speaker 5: to be is the guy in New Hampshire that like
• 30:27
  Speaker 5: renting and raving, going after all of his enemies. And
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: I do worry about like there there is a kind
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: of unintended consequence of having this kind of a debate
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: where if he if he can kind of keep himself together,
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: he ends up seeming like the kind of Donald Trump
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: his campaign wants him to be.
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: I do worry about that for sure.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, if I was if I was preparing Donald Trump, which,
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: you know, allegedly the Trump campaign is like, we're not
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: preparing anything. He's he doesn't need preparation. He's just ready
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: to go. But if I was preparing Donald Trump, I
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: would say like everyone is expecting you to lose it,
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: to go after Joe Biden, to talk about Hunter, to
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: do all the shit that Trump does at the rallies,
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: do your whole rally performance.
• 31:03
  Speaker 8: Right.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: And if you just go there and talk about how
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: inflation is bad, people are struggling. Joe Biden has failed
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: as president. He's too weak to lead. And then just
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: stick to that message and don't sound too crazy like
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: you're going to win this debate. That's how I prepared
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump. And maybe Donald Trump could do that for
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: the first five minutes. But I think that how long
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: can he do that with no notes prepared, no one
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: whispering in his ear, nothing like that? And for Joe Biden, then,
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: I think the prep is you've got to, you want
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: to speak directly to the American people and talk to
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: people and not get into a fistfight with Donald Trump.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: But you want to also get under Trump's skin. He's
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: got to have a few lines that they know will
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: really trigger Trump. and reveal the Trump that we all
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: know and despise.
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: You've got to bring out the Twitter feed. We can't
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: have the guy up there who is smart and is
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: endorsing Larry Hogan in the Maryland Senate race, even though
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: Hogan said, you know, we should respect the jury verdict
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: in the New York Hush Money case. The other thing
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: that worries me for Biden in this is, there's all
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: these reports. Look, it's very hard to be critical of
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: your boss, no matter what, when your boss is the
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: president of the United States. There's lots of reporting that
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: it's even harder for the Biden team to bring up
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: issues with his family, in particular Hunter's recent legal challenges.
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: I have to imagine that Donald Trump is going to
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: bring this up in some way that might be hard
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: to predict. And Biden needs to be, he has to
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: respond in a way that is calculated and on his terms.
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: Now that can be angry, but you can't just flip
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: out or scream or let it get in your head.
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: Like it's gotta be really well thought through and you
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: need to practice that.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: Did you hear Trump last week say, They asked him
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: about Hunter and he said, it's a real sad thing
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: for a father. That's all he said. And again, I'm
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: sure they, like, if they are smart, if Trump is smart,
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: that's the kind of answer he'll give, which would shock
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: everyone and not play to type. Will he be able to,
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: if he feels like he's losing the debate, right, then
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: all bets are off and he's going to be the Trump.
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: He's going to be the Trump we expect him to be.
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: But I think for Biden also, it's like, smile, look alert, like,
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: overdo it. Because, you know, everyone's going to be looking
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: for a moment where you're staring off into space or
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: you're looking down or you're tired. So like super alert
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: the whole time. I do think he should address Trump
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: when he's attacking Trump. He should address the cameras otherwise.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: And again, I think you want Donald Trump to try
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: to complain when the mic is muted because then he'll
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: just sound like you'll just hear like little bits. It
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: might be distracting to Biden, but for the audience, if
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: they just hear this other guy, we might. I just
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: don't know how much.
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: You'll hear it because it's a mic like 10 feet
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: away that's designed to pick up the person right here.
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: So it might just be heard by Biden and not
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: at home.
• 33:42
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know. I don't know.
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: The other thing that Biden needs to do is just
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: he does this thing where he often starts a sentence
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: and then he cuts himself off.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: I don't want to get started. Don't get me started,
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: he says.
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: Just stop doing that. Start and then finish.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And the biggest problem, and this was Obama's problem
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: in the first debate with Romney, is do not be
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: defensive about your record. This is not a debate where
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: you are finally going to litigate all of your accomplishments
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: and make sure that everyone knows. Of course, he should
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: talk about what he's done that people might not realize
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: and how it's actually affected people. Hopefully not with like,
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: we did a billion dollars here and $ 15 billion here.
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: Like talk about the number of people you've helped, a
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: number of student loans you've relieved, like the bridges you're building,
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: whatever it may be. Talk about it that way. But like,
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: when Trump challenges you or Jake and Dana challenge you
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: on this, like, do not be defensive about the record.
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: That is the, I think that's the, one of the
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: bigger challenges.
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: Or make sure, like, it's very likely that Trump will
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: spend a lot of time attacking CNN, attacking Jake Tapper,
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: attacking Dana Bash, attacking the media generally. Joe Biden just
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: can't be the guy who does that too. And there's
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: a lot of media criticism that comes out of people
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: like us and the White House. And I hope that
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: it doesn't come out of Joe Biden's mouth.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Particularly about like, the polls are just, Polls are just wrong.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: Have you ever taken a poll lately? It's too hard.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: They're landlines only. We didn't do any of the polling stuff.
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: Leave that to Trump. Trump will do plenty of that
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: if he needs to. I'm sure.
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: We just talked about an ad that we think we
• 35:07
  Speaker 5: really like. And I just like, this is an opportunity
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: to deliver the message of that ad.
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: Well, you were in court. Here's what we were doing.
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: And here's what we'll keep doing.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: And by the way, that will have the effect of
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: getting under Trump's skin. And like, Joe Biden can do
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: it very matter-of-factly. You know, yeah, you were in court.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: I know you were dealing with the law. I was
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: out there trying to.
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: Again, I hope it's economic stuff and not like, I
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: was in Ukraine. I was in Europe with the G7.
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: We don't need that. Sorry, Tommy.
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: Sorry, Tommy. I'm sitting right here. He's energizing the quad.
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: He was facilitating an AUKUS agreement.
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: AUKUS agreement.
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: It's a submarine technology going all the way to Australia.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: This is it. They're going to let Tommy in debate prep.
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: Oh, the Indo-Pacific has no seat at this table?
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: Pivot to Asia, anyone?
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: Pacific Rim.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: That's a movie.
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: Do they still wear the shirts?
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: Which who?
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: When they go to the, the silly, the silly ASEAN shirts.
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: They do that really funny leaders photo where they all
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: dress up. I like when the leaders have to dress up.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: Globalists.
• 36:04
  Speaker 8: All right.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: Uh, one thing before we go to break, love it.
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: Some people think he means Jews.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: Yes. One thing before we go to break, love it.
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: Hey, it's so good to be back. I love that
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: there are toilets here. Uh, and people have to laugh
• 36:18
  Speaker 5: at my jokes because they work here. Uh, And I'm
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: hitting the road. Love It or Leave It is going
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: to North Carolina starting tomorrow through Friday. We'll be in
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: Charlotte and Asheville. We have some amazing shows lined up
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: with Tressie McMillan Condom, Sidney Washington, T.S. Madison, Congressman Jeff Jackson,
• 36:33
  Speaker 5: and a lot of other amazing guests. And then John, Tommy,
• 36:36
  Speaker 5: and I, we're doing our book tour. The book's coming out.
• 36:37
  Speaker 7: Sure are.
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: And we have book events in New York next Tuesday,
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: June 25th. That's the night before our Brooklyn show. And
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: in Boston next Thursday.
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: On June 27th.
• 36:45
  Speaker 5: And they're early, so you'll be home in time to
• 36:49
  Speaker 5: watch the debate. And hope your eyeballs don't fall out
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: of your head and into your hands.
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: Or hope that they do.
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: Maybe do that part beforehand.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: Get your tickets.
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: Please come see us at crooked.com slash events.
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: OK, before we go, we are treating ourselves to a
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: little veepstake speculation since Trump's decision is rapidly approaching and
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: there's been some new reporting about who he might pick. Reminder,
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: Trump has said multiple times he'll announce his VP at
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: the convention instead of in the weeks before. And that's
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: now just a month away from the Republican convention. The
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: campaign has sent vetting paperwork to eight people, according to Politico.
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: But really, it's down to the top tier is three.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: But of all the possible contenders, a couple were out
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: on the Sunday shows yesterday. Here's an idea of what
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: you missed.
• 37:48
  Speaker 9: Because this guy is tireless, he's committed, he's smart, he's funny.
• 37:52
  Speaker 9: He's nothing like he's portrayed in the press. And so
• 37:55
  Speaker 9: if you asked me that same question today, I'd be like, absolutely,
• 37:57
  Speaker 9: I would do business with him. Because I mean, think
• 37:59
  Speaker 9: about how successful he'd been, whether it's a, whatever it is.
• 38:03
  Speaker 8: Look, I think that I would have an ability to
• 38:04
  Speaker 8: step in. I'm actually pretty intelligent. I can sift through
• 38:08
  Speaker 8: issues really, really well. It's about judgment. It's about logic streams.
• 38:11
  Speaker 8: It's about how you make decisions at the end of
• 38:13
  Speaker 8: the day.
• 38:14
  Speaker 6: Under Joe Biden, we've seen the movement to defund the police,
• 38:18
  Speaker 6: leaving communities like the one I grew up in, devastated
• 38:22
  Speaker 6: and ravaged by a wave of violent crime that we
• 38:25
  Speaker 6: have not seen literally in five decades.
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: Actually, Senator, as you probably know, the latest stats on
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: violent crime and on the murder rate, they're actually down
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: this past year.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: So not quite literally. That was first Doug Burgum, and
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: then it was Byron Donalds, a congressman from Florida. talking
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: about how we can sift through information and logic streams.
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: And then the last one was Tim Scott just lying
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: about violent crime. Insiders are saying that of those three,
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: only Burgum is on the real shortlist, which apparently is
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: just him, J.D. Vance, and Marco Rubio. The anonymous Trump
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: allies quoted in the pieces about this warn, as usual,
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: that Trump could always change his mind or just throw
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: a curveball, but they're also not waving off the idea
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: that for now it's these three finalists.
• 39:12
  Speaker 6: All right.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: Giving you guys a chance to revise your lists or
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: keep them the same. Who do you think is at
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: the top of the campaigns list? Who do you think
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: is at the top of Trump's list? And who are
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: your dark horses, if you have dark horses?
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: Can I tell you my favorite quote from all the
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: reporting on this, which was in The Bulwark, I believe,
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: where Trump was bemused. that his candidates weren't hot enough.
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: He said, where's my Cary Grant?
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 39:35
  Speaker 5: But he, and he got, listen, you don't want to
• 39:38
  Speaker 5: fuck your vice president.
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: He's not swiping right.
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: You're not, you don't know the right guy. That's how
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: it works.
• 39:41
  Speaker 5: You got to really want to get in there. Like, like,
• 39:44
  Speaker 5: you know, he's kissed Joe Arpaio, but he knows he
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: can do better.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: What was your question? It is pride. Your list. What
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: do you think the campaign wants them to do? What
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: do you think Trump, deep down in his dark soul,
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: wants to do? And then are there any dark horses
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: that are not these top three that we're missing? I mean,
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: it doesn't seem.
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: Like the hardcore MAGA culture warriors all want J.D.
• 40:05
  Speaker 9: Vance.
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: I treated myself to a couple right-wing podcasts this morning,
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: as one does.
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: They love J.D.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: Vance.
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: They love that he fights their culture wars. They're worried
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: that he's very young.
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: He's 39 now. That hurts. I saw that. I was like, 30?
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: He's 39? That hurts.
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: First year older than the baseball players, then you're older
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: than the vice presidents, then you're older than the senators,
• 40:26
  Speaker 5: and you're dead.
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: Remember when Barack Obama got shit because he was in
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: his late 40s and he was a U.S. senator?
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: J.D.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: Vance has been there. He just got elected. He's 39
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: years old.
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: Two years in. Yeah, I mean, at least Sivanik is
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: 39 as well, so there's a couple youngins on this list.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: J.D., will he get it? He is your....
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: Slash and burn put them on fox news go hard
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: to your opponents every day probably maga did.
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: You guys read the uh long jd vance interview with
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: ross duthat in the new york times.
• 40:59
  Speaker 5: Oh no i'm sorry i haven't had the same for
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: the plane.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: I will say he present he really is the smarter
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: trump he's scary and like he still sounds very everyone's
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: pulling out the january 6th stuff and the and the
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: try to steal the election stuff. And he sounds very
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: bullshitty on both of those topics, but he actually makes, uh,
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: Trumpism sound more reasonable than I have seen it, uh,
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: in print or heard of it. And, um, it's interesting too.
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: He said to the people on the left, I would
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: say whose politics I'm open to. It's the Bernie bros.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: That's who I'm, that's whose politics I'm most open to.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: He's like, but generally center left liberals who are doing
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: very well and center right conservatives who are doing very
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: well have an incredible blind spot about how much their
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: success is built on a system that's not serving people
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: who they should be serving. And it's like, that is a... Again,
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: we can all pull calls in and it's all bullshit,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: but it is... I do wonder if J.D. Vance being
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: so smart and such a favorite of the MAGA crew
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: is going to give Trump any kind of pause because
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: he doesn't... Remember, Trump doesn't like anyone outshining Trump. And
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: so there is that... I wonder about that and I
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: wonder about the inexperience thing, but he also called Trump
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: America's Hitler at one point.
• 42:09
  Speaker 5: Well, no, but he was saying... Yes, but it was
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: sort of like a... can't beat him, join him sort
• 42:14
  Speaker 5: of a thing, that statement.
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: But I find it really hard.
• 42:17
  Speaker 5: Like I, I think Trump doesn't know.
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: So how could we know?
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: But I find like it hard to get past the
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: thought process that if you go with Rubio, you're making
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: the same mistake you made with Pence, which is someone
• 42:29
  Speaker 5: who's fealty is ultimately not going to be with Donald Trump,
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: but to his long-term interests, a kind of squish. So
• 42:35
  Speaker 5: that I find a bit confusing. Like I think Doug
• 42:38
  Speaker 5: Burgum without the money is he still as appealing. He
• 42:41
  Speaker 5: is kind of boring and kind of stayed in a
• 42:44
  Speaker 5: way that won't outshine Trump. But I'll tell you my, I,
• 42:48
  Speaker 5: like you played the clip of Byron Donald's. That was
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: his worst moment in the interview.
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: It's actually pretty good. Yeah.
• 42:54
  Speaker 5: That question, the question was like, are you ready to
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: be commander in chief on day one? And the fact
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: that he didn't go, hell yes, I am. He kind of,
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: kind of, he actually, it seemed like he really thinks
• 43:02
  Speaker 5: about the questions he's being asked and then tries to
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: answer them, which I think is a huge liability. But,
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: but what I found interesting about Byron Donald is, you know,
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: unlike a Rubio, uh, or a Burgum or a Tim
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: Scott or any of these other people, like he did, he,
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: he's able to deflect questions that about Trump in a
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: way that seemed less political. I thought he was like
• 43:24
  Speaker 5: a very, very good interview. And like, I thought he did.
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: And I actually, when I saw it, I was like, oh, wow.
• 43:30
  Speaker 5: Like if like, if Trump is watching this, I think
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: Trump is much more in favor of someone like this
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: than some of the more political people that are maybe
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: higher up the list.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: I think that the the Trump campaign is trying to
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: be cautious. They think they're winning. Trump thinks he's winning.
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: And in, you're in that situation, you go with the
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: safe pick and, and you go with the pick that's
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: not going to upset the apple cart. And I think
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: that's Doug Burgum and he's rich and Trump likes rich people.
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: Trump's like Trump likes, you know, apparently there's reporting that
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: he feels closest to Doug Burgum. He knows he's going
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: to get complete loyalty from that guy. He, um, He
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: thinks he looks good. I don't know if he wants
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: to fuck him, but he does think he looks good.
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: He apparently also said that his wife is attractive and
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: Trump likes the hot wives. That's a big deal. So
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: he's happy. He wants to see how it all looks
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: on TV, right? Doug Burgum and his wife and Trump
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: and Melania, he likes that. So I could see him
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: just going with Burgum and it's like, is it exciting?
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: Is it going to shake anything up?
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: No.
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: But Trump doesn't want to shake anything up, really. That's
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: a good point.
• 44:29
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I know.
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: Of that list of three, I find it like the
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: easiest to believe that it's Doug Burke.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: I do too.
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: But then I do wonder too, if he really.
• 44:35
  Speaker 5: Is going to hold this for the convention, like, is
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: he trying to do something more interesting?
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: Look, there's a three-person short list that we're talking about now.
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: There's also sort of an eight-person longer list. There's only
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: one woman on the eight-person list, which is shocking, Elise Stefanik.
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: So that does tell you about the path they're going for,
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: which is they're trying to reach young men, particularly young
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: men of color. Given that, I mean, Rubio would be
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: the smart pick, I think, because you think he could
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: maybe make inroads with Latino voters. But I do get
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: the sense that you do love it. That's like, I
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: wonder if he really passes the loyalty test. And there's
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: also the 2013 immigration reform experience where Rubio tried to
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: be thoughtful and reasonable and actually solve the problem. And
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: the right wing base has never forgiven him for that.
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: The question I have on Burgum- And he's a neocon
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: on foreign policy.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: MAGA people don't love the neocon. Rubio's got some Haley vibes.
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: Yeah, both Rubio and Byron Donalds would have to move
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: out of Florida because you can't live in the same
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: state as the president. The question about Burgum is, I
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: wonder if there's a deal where you're like, all right, Doug,
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: come on board, but you got to write a $ 100
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: million check.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: I'm sure you will.
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: Oh, that's a perfect third impeachment. A direct purchase by
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: his presidency.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: That wouldn't surprise me at all.
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: I also think like Trump ultimately like, He's a racist,
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: and he likes his peers. He looks like old men
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: who he thinks are successful in business, and that's Doug Berger.
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if the campaign or outside advisors
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: like your Kellyanne Conways are pushing Rubio. I think she is, yeah.
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: Because I do think Rubio out there, and he's fluent
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: in Spanish. He just did a Telemundo interview completely in Spanish,
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: the only major party candidate that can do that. So
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: I'm sure they're pushing him on that, but I don't know.
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: Deep down, it could just be Doug. I mean, it's
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: a very Mike Pence pick if he does that.
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: Rupert Murdoch apparently likes Doug Burgum.
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: Oh, that's another one.
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: The only thing about him, he's really boring. He's not vetted. Like,
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: which Dakota is he from?
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: Maybe he killed a dog, too. Maybe he killed a couple.
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: You never know who he's killed. But, like, there's not been,
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: you know, you can get elected statewide in some of
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: these gubernatorial races and not really get a tenth of
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: the scrutiny you get once you're a serious presidential contender.
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: Doug Burgum, though, does answer the question, hey— Why do
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: all these no-name idiots with no shot run for president
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: all the time? It's because you might end up the
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: VP like Dougie Fresh here.
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: And he was my guy from the beginning. You loved him.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: That's something to think about. All right. That's our show
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: for today. And we will be back with another show
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: on Wednesday. It's going to be Lovett and me and
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: Kate Shaw from Strict Scrutiny. Isn't that exciting?
• 47:11
  Speaker 5: A lot of legal news.
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: A lot of legal news. All right, everyone. We'll see
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: you later. If you want to get ad-free episodes, exclusive content,
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  Speaker 2: a review. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: Our show is produced by Olivia Martinez and David Toledo.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Our associate producers are Saul Rubin and Farah Safari. Reid
• 47:45
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• 47:48
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• 47:55
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• 48:01
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• 48:04
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  Speaker 2: and Molly Lobel.
• 48:12
  Speaker 6: Thank you.