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Russia votes as Poland warns Putin may strike NATO allies · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: For the first time since Russia launched its invasion of
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Ukraine more than four years ago, Russian voters are headed
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: to the polls. Voting began about two hours ago and
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: will continue until Sunday. 450 seats in the state Duma,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: the lower house of parliament, are theoretically on the line,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: but effective opposition is practically non-existent, and President Vladimir Putin's
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: party is expected to stay on top. Social tensions are
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: starting to creep in, partly because the war in Ukraine
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: is taking a toll on the economy. Before the vote, though, Mr.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Putin said that things are still under control.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: We are, of course, seeing oil prices rise on global markets,
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: and therefore we expect oil and gas revenues to increase
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: in the coming months. This, in turn, will allow us
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: to replenish the National Wealth Fund, which serves as a
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: buffer for state finances. Economic performance in Russia is generally
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: in line with our expectations. Gross domestic product growth this
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: year is estimated to be within 1%. This is approximately
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: what we anticipated when preparing the budget plan for the
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: current year.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Poland's prime minister is warning that Moscow plans more
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: strikes on Ukraine's allies. He says intelligence agencies say the
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Kremlin will launch hybrid drone attacks on countries that support Ukraine.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister Donald Tusk claims Moscow's official line would be
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: that those strikes were accidental. He's headed to Kyiv for
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: talks in the coming hours.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: In my view, the hopes expressed by President Trump that
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: Russia would cease its attack on energy infrastructure have proved
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: to be in vain and were probably more of an
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: attempt to persuade President Zelensky to ensure that Ukraine stop
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: its attack on Russian refineries. So unfortunately, and I say
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: this with a heavy heart, I fear that by winter
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: we will witness increasingly severe Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: I can only express the hope that these provocations and
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: attacks will not extend beyond Ukraine's borders.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: OK, for more analysis, I'm going to go to London now,
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  Speaker 1: where I'm joined by Gregoire Ross, the director of the Europe,
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  Speaker 1: Russia and Eurasia programs at Chatham House. Nice to see you.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: I guess we're going to start with these Duma elections
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: in Russia. You know, several weeks ago that I saw
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: that that little political party of Grigory Yavlinsky, Yabloka, was
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: basically banned from competing in the elections. So what does
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  Speaker 1: that leave then? Any real political opposition to speak of?
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  Speaker 1: And if there's little opposition left, what's the point of
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: an election for Russia at this point?
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  Speaker 4: Good morning, Ivan, and thank you for having me. Again,
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: we're on CNN and you're spot on. I think what
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: we're seeing here is obviously less a race to control
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: the Duma than a test of the Kremlin's capacity to
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  Speaker 4: demonstrate publicly its ability to mobilize political support for the war,
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: for the Kremlin, after nearly five years of full-scale war.
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: And at a time, we've seen that for the past
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: few months, when the war starts turning into a significant
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: cost for the Russian people, from fuel shortages to skyrocketing
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: inflation to rising unemployment and to taxation, which is something
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: that the Kremlin has thus far managed to keep.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Low.
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: So we will see, I think, interesting indicators. Obviously, turnout
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: would be a relevant one. although I would tend to
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: say that there's nothing that would prevent the Kremlin from
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: inflating that figure, so I would not necessarily rely on
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: the turnout necessarily. The opposition, as you rightfully said, Yablonka,
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: was bad from running, so most of the wiping out
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: of the opposition, so to say, was carried out upstream,
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: which is a reason why there is currently little risk
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: for the Kremlin to see anti-war parties taking a lead
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: in parliament. But what we will see is how many
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: Russians actually follow the advice, the encouragement of the opposition
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: to actually come to vote on the very last day
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: to reduce the ability of the Kremlin to stuff the ballots.
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: That will be a first indicator. The second will obviously
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: see the number of online campaign to really show that
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: there's kind of a of ballot stuffing. We will also
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: see this. Some hackers have already shown some days ago
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  Speaker 4: that in spite of the reassurance from the Kremlin that
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: the electric system would be perfectly safe, well, you could
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: actually hack it. So it's another indication that it will
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: be very easy to manipulate the results. And of course,
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: you have all the Ukrainian territories that are under Russian control.
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: that now have candidates who have been parachuted, who do
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: not come from those regions, and who will most likely
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: send Moscow a landslide victory result. That will be another
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: argument for Vladimir Putin to show how much integrated into
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: the Russian Federation those territories are, culturally, as he likes
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: to say, even if it is not the case, and
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: obviously politically too. One point, perhaps, and I don't want
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: to be too long. Indeed, there have been 93 strikes
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: carried out by the Russians overnight. But the Ukrainians air
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: defense has actually been very efficient as it's managed to
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: take down more than 70 of those drones and missiles.
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  Speaker 4: So I think at this stage, even if the winter
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: will be most certainly the most difficult for the Ukrainians
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  Speaker 4: to face and go through the defense of the Ukrainians.
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  Speaker 4: is very resilient and much stronger than what the Kremlin
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: would hope for at this stage.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Can I ask, we heard about warnings coming from the
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Polish prime minister about the threat, in his words, of
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Russian hybrid attacks on EU member states. Given how difficult
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: the war has been in Ukraine alone for Russia, if
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  Speaker 1: there's any truth to this, why would the Kremlin want
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: to tangle with the EU and potentially NATO? Would it
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: be just to keep Europeans on their toes? Or would
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: they kind of think that they could really take on
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  Speaker 1: additional potential enemies?
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  Speaker 4: I think it's an excellent question. And again, what is
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: very interesting is that this showcases the art of the
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: Kremlin to keep provoking and to keep fueling a kind
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: of fear of Ukrainian populations remaining under the threshold of
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: direct confrontation. So yes, you will still see, you might
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  Speaker 4: have heard that in France and the Netherlands some days ago,
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  Speaker 4: there was some sabotage on the On some railways, it's
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  Speaker 4: still not proved at this stage whether this was committed
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: by Russians or people who might have been manipulated or
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: paid by Russia, but it is not to be excluded
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: at this stage. So you will see some hybrid attacks
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: that will be localized, that taken independently from the others
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: might look like they're not relevant, they're not consistent with
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: a bigger pattern of attack and threat. But we will
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: see that going forward with, of course, breaches in the airspace.
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: drones attacking airports, cyber attacks most certainly, submarine cables that
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: are becoming increasingly sensitive in infrastructure. It is a way
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  Speaker 4: for the Russians to send a signal to Russian populations,
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  Speaker 4: especially after the regional elections in Germany, showing that indeed
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: this might pay off, at least locally. So I think
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  Speaker 4: the Kremlin is hoping that that this would send a
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  Speaker 4: signaling to some of the Europeans who still believe that
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  Speaker 4: Russia is too strong an enemy and that Europe should
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: rather ditch Ukraine and sit at the negotiating table with Russia,
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: which is, of course, something that most Europeans do not
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: agree with and certainly not the leaders across most European countries.
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: So we're not there, but Putin knows that he has
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: some room for maneuver. And that would also lead many
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: European countries to ask whether the current Russia strategy of
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: Europe is the right one. So it also increases the
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  Speaker 4: kind of doubt and breaks the self-confidence that we have
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  Speaker 4: seen coming out from Europe ever since Trump and the U.S.
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: and Russia put those points on the table in November
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: last year. All right.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Grégoire Ross at Chatham House in London. Thank you very
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: much for speaking with me.
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: Thank you very much indeed.