Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/21/26: US Seizes Iranian Ship, Energy Crisis Spirals, Trump Says No Ceasefire Extension

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4/21/26: US Seizes Iranian Ship, Energy Crisis Spirals, Trump Says No Ceasefire Extension · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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  Speaker 1: What'll we have personal?
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Indeed, we do as we begin this morning, major questions
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: about whether or not peace talks.
• 0:42
  Speaker 4: In Islamabad or are on or off.
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  Speaker 2: Jeremy Scala is going to join us to try to
• 0:47
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  Speaker 2: economic fallout. Trump saying directly that his energy secretary is
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• 1:00
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  Speaker 2: the response there, as well as other Gulf Arab state
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: fallout that we're already seeing. Trump is having to go
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  Speaker 3: But let's gohe and start with all of these crazy updates,
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: even just this morning breaking with this Hurran cease fire negosh.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So just to bring everybody up to be it
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: as best I can. The negotiations have been on and off.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: We're getting reports from mainstream outlets, mostly with Pakistani storesing
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: that the Iranians are planning to attend negotiations in Islamabad.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Yet we're getting a lot of tough signaling from the Iranians,
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: this in the wake of that ship seizure, which was
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: a real escalatory move, and a lot of triumphalist talk
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: from Trump that seems intended to humiliate them. Now this morning,
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: we've got a couple more things for you. Let's put
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: this first part up on the screen here. We've got
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: an announcement from the Department of War that US Force
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: has just conducted a write a visit, maritime interdiction and
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: boarding of the stateless sanctioned MT Tifani without incident in
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: the Indo Paccom area of responsibility. As we've made clear,
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt ISLICIT networks
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran anywhere
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: that they operate. International waters are not a refuge for
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: sanctioned vessels. The Department of War will continue to deny
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: illicit actors and their vessels of freedom of maneuver in
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: the maritime domain. This consistent with the threat to that
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: the US would expand the blockade basically globally to go
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: after any ships that were planning that had any association
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: with Iran. So again, in terms of whether or not
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: these talks are even going to happen, this would be
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: another bitter pill that Iran would have to swallow in
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: and really sort of a concession that they would have
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: to make in order to go to the table, because
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: the understanding that they had Friday was, Okay, we're going
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: to say that the straight up horn Moves is open.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: You are also going to rooin your blockade. But Trump
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: insisted that we're going to keep our blockade in place
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: indefinitely into some sort of dealer struck. We had the
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: seizure of the ship yesterday. Today we have this news,
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: so not a good sign.
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: No, Actually, the seizure of these ships is a much
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: more about Iran's war effort than it actually is in
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: terms of oil. So again, there is a lot of
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: news that's been coming out about this blockade, a lot
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: of fake news actually from the American and the Iranian side,
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: claiming multiple violations and people to go through.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: So Lloyd's actually crunt.
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: Some of the data about twenty seven different ships were
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: actually able to get through, some of them.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Were oil related.
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: Now this is where you need to pay quite a
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: bit of attention is that this was quote without incident
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: in the Indo Paycom Maritime and Indo Paycom area of responsibility.
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: So we don't know exactly where and what we can
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: take a couple of different clues. So in this ship
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: and in a previous ship that was seized yes I
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: think it was yeah yesterday that you guys covered. Both
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: of those were either en route from China and are
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: expected to have some sort of either military technology or assistance,
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: and or there's a specific chemical I was reading about
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: which is very helpful to the Iranian missile program. And
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: so actually what this blockade has been about now so
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: far in terms of the actual enforcement actions, has been
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: on trying to quell any of the military technology or
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: military infrastructure needed to re arm for the war, not
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: necessarily just for oil, which I think again you would
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: only really do if this wasn't about economic pressure, but
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: if we intended to restart the war. And this was
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: kind of a message to the Iranian war machine who
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: is doing its best to dig itself out and to
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: re up, you know, for any potential you know, reigniting
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: of hostility. So again it's very very unclear the number
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: of ships have actually gone through and haven't gone through,
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: but it is a major escalation to be boarding Iranian
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: ships at sea in the middle of a blockade. Also
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: at a time were allegedly in some sort of a ceasefire.
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: It definitely puts all of the you know, talks at risk,
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: but more so it just shows the mixed messages that
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: are happening in Tehran. Spoke you know, to a couple
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: of people and one of the different I mean, this
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: is basically in the open source as well. The biggest
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: difficulty for talks with Iran are actually very similar to ours.
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: Who does the vice president speak for? Do to speak
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: with the president? Who did Jared Kushner and Steve Wikoff,
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: who do they really speak for?
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: Everything with the Vice president they have trust, but it's
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: not really negotiating with him if he's calling back to
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: Trump eight different times. Well, Gallibaf and those guys, they
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: don't have total authority necessarily to make a deal. So
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: they've got to go through this byzantine network of IRGC
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: couriers to get to the Supreme leader.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: How alive and awake is he?
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: Even nobody has any idea, right and so on the
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: Iranian side, That's why I think you saw with the
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: foreign minister when he's declared the straight open and then
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: the IRGC immediately said, close, guys, guess what, we killed
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: the only person in the country at any respect. I know,
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: it feels like ancient history, the Ayahtola. He was the
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: only guy who had basic control over everywhere.
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: Now, I mean, whose word was final, was long.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Right, and he actually could give an order on a phone.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: This guy.
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: I mean, you've got a foreign minister who's seen as
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: more amenable. Gallibof and those people, they definitely seem to
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: want some sort of talk. But then these newer IRGC commanders,
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: I think we talked about it previously in one of
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: our shows from the Financial Times, they're much more hardline
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: and they're like, no, that's not gonna happen. So internal
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: warfare inside the system was byzantine.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: No matter what.
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: It really relied on the iatola as the total arbitrary.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: It's not meant for this current system. That's why the
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: IRGC was very effective in war because they had immediate
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: command and control, the ability to horiz Anti esca.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: It makes it very difficult to have to sign some
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: sort of a deal.
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: So when Vance is sitting across the table, who's really
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: sitting across the table from right?
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: It's the same question on both sides. Yeah, very very difficult.
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: Well, and there was all this will here one here
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: with regard to Jadi Vance. At one point yesterday Trump
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: said that Vance was already on route to Tehran when he.
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: Was literally still in DC.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: So, you know, we got a report during the show yesterday.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: We had to change what was being reported because things
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: were shifting so much. And it is significant because you know,
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know that this respect is really deserved, but
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: the Iranians have no use for Witkoff and for Kushner whatsoever.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: And if the negotiations were just Witkoff and Kushner leading
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: that delegation, like I don't think we should even bother
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: to really cover them, they.
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: Would be going nowhere.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: They really insist on having jd Vance there because they
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: feel that he has.
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: Been more opposed to war.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: They don't feel like he is as much a direct
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: asset of Israel as Witkoff and Kushner are. So that's
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: why it was significant all this question of whether he's
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: going or not. The latest understanding is that he is
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: leaving today to go to Islamabad for these talks. We
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: still have no idea whether or not the Iranians are
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: going to go. The let's go and put the latest
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: Trump truth up on the show is a zero B
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: because again this is not a great sign in terms
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: of trying and extend calm the waters enough that Iran
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: could feel that they could show up at these negotiations
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: without it just be completely humiliating. Trump tweets this sound
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: or truths this sound. Iran has violated the ceasefire numerous
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: times now. Of course, Iran is looking at the US
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: and also looking at Israel, which continues to bombard Lebanon,
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: albeit at a lower level than previously, and certainly feels
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: like the ceasefire is being violated on the US and
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: Israeli side as well.
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: And so yesterday I put a one up on the screen.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: First we were getting all these reports Wall Street Journal,
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: in New York Times, Washington posters saying Okay, the Iranians
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: are going.
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: And like I said.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: Before, that information appeared to be coming from the Pakistanis.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: It appeared that the Iranians were telling the Pakistanis or
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: possibly its opium from the Pakistanis, that they were planning
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: to attend. But then we started getting all of these
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: very tough statements from Gollibap from Arachi, from every significant
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: player on the Iranian side. Here, Gollibob says, Trump, by
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire, seeks to turn
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: this negotiating table in his own imagination, into a table
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering. We do not
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: accept negotiations under the shadow of threats. In the past
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: the battlefield, that new cards on the battlefield piece. You know,
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: that's consistent with the reporting that they've been aggressively trying
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: to rebuild and recover from some of their losses as
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: much as they can.
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: In this you know.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: Short window of the ceasefire. It does not outright say
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: we aren't going to the talks, but obviously signaling you know,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: that they are unhappy with what the US has been
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: doing and more much more hardline rhetoric than where we
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: were on Friday when you had a Rachie saying the
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: street is basically open and signaling that they wanted to
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: de escalate in order to get back to the table.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: So that's where things stand. And I'll say, Sager, you know,
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: this is a truly very pivotal moment. The temporary ceasefire expires,
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: depending on your your counting of this, either today or tomorrow.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: Trump said tomorrow, So maybe he just sort of like
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: you know, extended the deadline to day.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Just unilaterally a bad time.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, whatever, anyway, it's it's set to expire very shortly,
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: and you know we've got a possibility of Okay, does
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: everybody come back to Islamabad and both sides have an
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: interest in getting a deal, they do, you know, the
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: Iranians when sanctions relief, they want some sort of way
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: out of this.
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: This has been very devastating for them.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: Even as they have been able to assert control and
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: strategically have a lot of victories here, it still has
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: been very devastating for them, and they need that sanctions
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: relief in order to be able to fully recovery, rebuild,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: and maintain their power because economically they were on very
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: shaky ground with their own population, so that's very important
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: for them. Obviously, Trump needs to get out of this
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: thing because it's an absolute disaster for him. The you know,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: gas prices are still very high. We're going to talk
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: more in the show about this looming economic crisis, which
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: draws closer every single day that this continues. So he
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: has an incentive here too. But the divide is possibly unbridgible.
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: So we really are kind of on a nice edge
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: right now about whether or not these talks even continue.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: And if they don't continue, you know, does Trump just
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: sort of walk away and tell the Israelis you're on
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: your own, we're done here, or do we go back
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: to the escalation trap that Rubbert Papos talks about.
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: I don't know, I think on a long enough timeline,
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: the escalation trap is inevitable in the interim. Trump truly,
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, look all the reporting, I can only take it,
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: you know, somewhat at its word is they He's very
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: He's over the war. He wants it to be over.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: He doesn't want to resume fob blown combat hostilities. You
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: saw how it didn't go well for us, didn't go
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: well for the Allies. I think this gray space is
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: which what we're going to be living in now for
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: quite some time, in the same way that we lived
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: in the gray space of the June to whatever, the
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: June to February twenty eighth attack where was?
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Will they won't they talks? No talks.
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: I mean, in some ways, while the no war benefits
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: the United States because oil prices are relatively stable, still
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: much higher than where they were, but relatively stable, it.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Benefits Iran too.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: They have you know, they can re arm, they can
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: reconsolidate in control, they can relook at some of the targets,
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: get some more satellite.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Data, all of that.
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: However, I do think what the Iranians are showing, and
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: look also for them, they can they in the same
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: incredible way that Trump wants to be like, see, I
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: did everything I took it to make a deal their population.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: We're not there.
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: You and I have no idea at the end of
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: the day, Like most people don't want to be bombed
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: incessantly or at war, so maybe their population has to
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: be made to feel that, like we really did do
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: everything we possibly could to avoid this before we enter
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: some sort of a total war. If I had to bet,
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't bet on a total war resumption like immediately.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: But you know that's the risk is this is the tail.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: We were already after the straits were closed after two
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: to three weeks. It was the worst case scenario economically
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: that we could have ever foreseen. And that's don't just
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: ask me, ask the war planners and everybody else in
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: the government who's speaking honestly. So you're right, I mean,
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: the risk of it is incredibly, incredibly high. I don't
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: know where things are going to go. If I had
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: to bet sometime this week, people will sit down. But
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: as we've learned now, sitting down does not translate to
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: real success, not when you're dealing with an erratic person
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: like Donald Trump who is on again, off again blockade
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: no blockade shift seizure. They still it's very Vietnam esque
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: in that there's all these talks happening, but the end
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: of the day, they believe that pressure itself is the
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: only thing that will result in success, and that's just
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: not correct now. So far, the other side has to
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: say face, they get a vote, and it's very possible
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: that very soon they may just say we're fed up
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: with this and they restart the war on their terms.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: And if that's the case, then we have very little
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: that we can do.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And of course Israeli is the whole way will
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: be and they will be bound and determined right to
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: get back into this war and do everything that they
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: possibly can to effectuate that outcome, because for them, the
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: war ending or even pausing at this point is just
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: wholly unacceptable. And for Netnyahu personally, in terms of you know,
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: all those corruption issues and his political standing, et cetera,
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: he finds it to be utterly unacceptable. So that's obviously
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: the you know, continued wild card that hangs over all
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: of this. With all of that being said, let's go
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: ahead and bring in Jeremy Scahill for his assessment of
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: where things stand right now. Joining us now is great
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: front of the show and drops to Site News's own
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Jeremy Skayhill.
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: Great to see Jeremy, You see you man.
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: Great to see both of you.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: So what is your latest sense of whether the Iranian
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: delegation is going to show up in Islamabad or not.
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: Well, you know, the.
• 15:22
  Speaker 6: Entire vibe right now in Tehran has been that Iran
• 15:26
  Speaker 6: believes that it has greater leverage now than it's had
• 15:29
  Speaker 6: at any point. They were really reluctant to engage in
• 15:31
  Speaker 6: this two week pause because they were concerned that the
• 15:34
  Speaker 6: US and Israel would use it to try to rearm
• 15:37
  Speaker 6: or reposition themselves to launch another attack. And the Iranians,
• 15:40
  Speaker 6: i'm told, were more than willing to go forward and
• 15:43
  Speaker 6: do another round of negotiations as long as it was
• 15:46
  Speaker 6: led by JD.
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: Vance and not with Coffin Kushner.
• 15:50
  Speaker 6: And they, to their mind, had a breakthrough last Friday
• 15:53
  Speaker 6: when Abbasarachi, the Iranian Foreign minister, posted that the Strait
• 15:58
  Speaker 6: of Hormuz was going to be reopened, and there was
• 16:02
  Speaker 6: i'm told, a sort of back door understanding that Arachi
• 16:05
  Speaker 6: would post that and then Trump would say what he
• 16:08
  Speaker 6: wanted about the good news, and that is what happened. Initially,
• 16:12
  Speaker 6: Trump said thank you. In fact, he referred to it
• 16:14
  Speaker 6: as the Strait of Iran rather than the Strait of Hormuz.
• 16:17
  Speaker 6: But then whether he got called by the Israelis or
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: other people started influencing him, or he was watching on
• 16:23
  Speaker 6: social media, Trump then moments later says, wait a minute, no,
• 16:27
  Speaker 6: we're keeping our blockade in force. And so what that
• 16:30
  Speaker 6: kicked in the motion was a series of events where
• 16:32
  Speaker 6: the Iranians said, wait a minute, We're not going to
• 16:35
  Speaker 6: move forward with another round of negotiations as long as
• 16:39
  Speaker 6: Trump is engaged in this erratic, threatening messaging and that
• 16:42
  Speaker 6: they have this blockade enforced. And then you had an
• 16:45
  Speaker 6: incident where the US Navy actually shot at an Iranian
• 16:49
  Speaker 6: ship and seized it and took custody of it. And
• 16:52
  Speaker 6: what I'm told is that in the discussions that took
• 16:54
  Speaker 6: place that were mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad, that Galibaf,
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: the speaker of the Iranian parliament, and other Iranian officials
• 17:03
  Speaker 6: made clear to Vice President JD. Vans that in order
• 17:07
  Speaker 6: for another round to occur, there couldn't be this kind
• 17:10
  Speaker 6: of threatening rhetoric from the United States. So it wasn't
• 17:13
  Speaker 6: just the blockade of the Strait of Horror moves. It
• 17:15
  Speaker 6: was in fact Trump's rhetoric, and the Iranians weren't just
• 17:17
  Speaker 6: saying we don't like this. They were saying, we had
• 17:20
  Speaker 6: a diplomatic understanding that this is not how things were
• 17:22
  Speaker 6: going to go down. So that's what caused this situation
• 17:25
  Speaker 6: where there were reports that like Jdvans had his bags
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: packed and was on the plane, or his plane was
• 17:29
  Speaker 6: imminently going to land. And once again Trump's erratic behavior
• 17:34
  Speaker 6: combined with the belligerents, seems to have caused a problem
• 17:37
  Speaker 6: moving forward. But the sense I get from the Iranians
• 17:39
  Speaker 6: is that they are interested in reaching a deal. They
• 17:42
  Speaker 6: are interested in talking, but they don't believe that they're
• 17:45
  Speaker 6: walking into this as the weaker party. On a tactical level,
• 17:47
  Speaker 6: they think Trump is in trouble.
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Jeremy, it's very very difficult to decipher. And let's
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: be clear, we're recording this in the morning. About an
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: hour before you came on, the United States took another
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: Iranian ship, and so that's what happened about an hour ago.
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: At the same time, all weekend, Trump is touting some
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: sort of jcpoa two point zero let's put a three
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: up here on the screen. Trump says the deal we
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: are making with Iran will be far better than the
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: JCPOA commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal. It
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: was a guaranteed road to a nuclear weapon, etc. If
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: I did not terminate that deal. He goes on to trash,
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: but he says it will be something the entire world
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: to be proud of instead of the years of embarrassment
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: and humiliation that we've been forced to suffer due to
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: incompetent and cowardly leadership. So at the very same time, Jeremy,
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: he's belligerent, he's seizing ships, he's threatening attacks. This morning,
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: he said Iran has violated the ceasefire numerous times. Just yesterday,
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: he is saying, maybe we'll do JCPOA two point zero,
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: We'll do some sort of Iran nuclear deal. How do
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: the Iranians interpret these mixed signals?
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, this is whiplash diplomacy.
• 18:53
  Speaker 6: And in fact, Donald Trump, according to the Wall Street
• 18:56
  Speaker 6: Journal profile about him recently, seems to think that by
• 19:00
  Speaker 6: intentionally acting this way and you know, making derogatory references
• 19:04
  Speaker 6: about Islam, et cetera, that somehow that's a language that
• 19:07
  Speaker 6: the Iranians are going to respect or it's going to
• 19:09
  Speaker 6: move the needle, and I think actually the opposite is true.
• 19:12
  Speaker 6: I see no evidence whatsoever that this is having, you know,
• 19:15
  Speaker 6: the impact that Trump thinks it is. In fact, as
• 19:18
  Speaker 6: we've talked about repeatedly on this show, it's been the
• 19:21
  Speaker 6: US that has been over and over asking for discussions
• 19:25
  Speaker 6: or talks.
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: With Iran on the issue of this jcpoa thing.
• 19:28
  Speaker 6: I think it's important to say something that I don't
• 19:31
  Speaker 6: often see mentioned, and that is that the entire rationale
• 19:35
  Speaker 6: for this war, the idea that you know, you know,
• 19:37
  Speaker 6: he's going to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon,
• 19:40
  Speaker 6: the entire thing was based on an epic lie. And
• 19:43
  Speaker 6: the terms that are on the table right now are
• 19:46
  Speaker 6: in no meaningful way any different from what Iranian negotiators
• 19:50
  Speaker 6: had put on the table in Geneva as of February
• 19:53
  Speaker 6: twenty seventh, the day before the United States launched this war.
• 19:57
  Speaker 6: I've been told by multiple Iranian officials and that Iran
• 20:01
  Speaker 6: is not going to agree to hand over to the
• 20:04
  Speaker 6: United States it's enriched uranium. That they are discussing a
• 20:08
  Speaker 6: supervised dilution of it, a much more robust presence of
• 20:11
  Speaker 6: international inspectors inside of Iran.
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: Trump certainly could.
• 20:15
  Speaker 6: Say that he's gotten some terms that extend beyond what
• 20:19
  Speaker 6: the JCPOA provided for. I think that's true, but that
• 20:22
  Speaker 6: was also true back in February, and the Iranians that
• 20:25
  Speaker 6: I'm speaking to, officials that is, are speaking in a
• 20:28
  Speaker 6: very derisive manner about Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: On the one hand, they're saying.
• 20:33
  Speaker 6: They had no technical know how, they didn't understand the
• 20:36
  Speaker 6: significance of what we were putting on the table. And
• 20:38
  Speaker 6: on the other hand, Iranians told me that they have
• 20:41
  Speaker 6: intelligence that Witkof and Kushner, particularly Kushner, that they were
• 20:46
  Speaker 6: getting information from the Israelis during the negotiations. In other words,
• 20:52
  Speaker 6: they're saying that they have intelligence that indicates that Netnyahu
• 20:56
  Speaker 6: was deeply involved and sticking himself in the middle of
• 21:00
  Speaker 6: this negotiation or discussion process. So it's a combination of
• 21:04
  Speaker 6: technical ignorance and a total lack of understanding of the
• 21:08
  Speaker 6: issues that like professional negotiators would be understanding, and then
• 21:12
  Speaker 6: the fact that the Iranians are saying, we know that
• 21:15
  Speaker 6: at various turns it seemed like we were making progress,
• 21:18
  Speaker 6: and then witkaf or Kushner start talking to net in
• 21:20
  Speaker 6: Yahoo and then things go south.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: How much unity is there on the Iranian side though,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: because it seems that there's been a bit of a
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: divide in desired approach between the Rachis and Gollibops of
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: the world and the IRGC command. You know, is that
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: also a challenge for them if we get back to
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: the negotiating table here in terms of having the authority
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: to strike some sort of deal.
• 21:44
  Speaker 6: You know, I think, and I'm basing this on talking
• 21:46
  Speaker 6: to well informed Iranian sources, I think there's been a
• 21:49
  Speaker 6: very robust debate inside of the echelons of power within Iran.
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: I don't think that that is fictional at all.
• 21:57
  Speaker 6: You definitely have people that are very concerned, if not angered,
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: that this two week temporary ceasefire was brokeered. There were
• 22:08
  Speaker 6: people pushing for Iran to keep fighting on, believing that
• 22:12
  Speaker 6: they had the United States and Israel backed into a
• 22:15
  Speaker 6: corner with Israel's supply of interceptors dwindling, with Trump in
• 22:19
  Speaker 6: chaos with the global economy, and shambles with the Gulf
• 22:22
  Speaker 6: Arab countries just absolutely livid that this war was extending.
• 22:26
  Speaker 6: On with the prospect of if Trump and Netnyahuo kept bombing,
• 22:30
  Speaker 6: that you were going to have a great escalation of
• 22:33
  Speaker 6: attacks against infrastructure in the GCC countries, that you could
• 22:37
  Speaker 6: have started to see more American soldiers being killed. So
• 22:40
  Speaker 6: clearly there were Iranians that were saying we should absolutely
• 22:43
  Speaker 6: not have any kind of a pause. But I would
• 22:46
  Speaker 6: also say that there's a political propaganda aspect to this
• 22:50
  Speaker 6: psychological warfare, where you have these narratives largely promoted by
• 22:53
  Speaker 6: anonymous US officials and Israelis that there's sort of this
• 22:57
  Speaker 6: massive split happening that the IRGC is know is angry
• 23:00
  Speaker 6: with Arachi, the Foreign Minister, and Galibaf is doing this.
• 23:04
  Speaker 6: I think what we've really seen in a clear way
• 23:06
  Speaker 6: is that Iran is a nation of institutions Galibaf. One
• 23:11
  Speaker 6: inside analyst told me this morning Galibov would not be
• 23:15
  Speaker 6: leading this delegation or making these proclamations if he was
• 23:19
  Speaker 6: not empowered by the Supreme National Security Council and it
• 23:22
  Speaker 6: was signed off on by Moshtaba Kameni and his office.
• 23:27
  Speaker 6: So I think that that's true. I think there's a
• 23:31
  Speaker 6: lot of exaggeration to that. There certainly are debates within
• 23:34
  Speaker 6: Iranian society. One other thing that I think is important
• 23:36
  Speaker 6: to point out is and I spoke this morning to
• 23:39
  Speaker 6: a very famous Iranian analyst, Hassan A Madian, and he
• 23:42
  Speaker 6: said to me, can you name another instance that you
• 23:45
  Speaker 6: can think of of a country whose political, religious, military,
• 23:50
  Speaker 6: senior leadership was assassinated and then it turned around and
• 23:55
  Speaker 6: was able to fight a world superpower to a total standstill,
• 23:59
  Speaker 6: where the press csident of the United States is the
• 24:01
  Speaker 6: one who seems to.
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: Be desperate for an off ramper. He was saying that
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: in response.
• 24:05
  Speaker 6: To this question of isn't Iran in a sort of
• 24:08
  Speaker 6: you know, crumbling state, isn't it in, you know, backed
• 24:10
  Speaker 6: up against the wall. And he's saying, point out to
• 24:12
  Speaker 6: me another example of something like this going down.
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: It's really fascinating because, like you said, from the Trump side,
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: let's put a five here on the screen all weekend.
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: And this also seems to be very intentional. Is Trump
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: wants a deal? He's also say I'm winning a war
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: by a lot. He says that Iran is losing five
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: hundred million dollars a day, that the blockade will not
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: be taken off until there is a deal. It is
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: quote absolutely destroying Iran, and so he simultaneously wants a deal.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: He's threatening action.
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: There's also real action that's taking place on the high seas. Jeremy,
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: you just discussed very eloquently, you know, the problems on
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: potential problems on the Iranian side about factions, But it
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: seems to be the same case here in the US.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: You know, from said Mirandi, who we spoke to here
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: on the show, he was part of the Iranian delegation.
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: There were major weird communication things happening on the US side, Jeremy,
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: Islamabad officials are leaking this morning. They do expect some
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: talks to happen. But my question is about how much
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: we should read even into talks, Like if talks do occur,
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: how positive of a signal is that for some sort
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: of extension of a ceasfire, And would Iran even want
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: an extension of a ceasfire.
• 25:20
  Speaker 6: I mean, think first of the incredible risks to Donald
• 25:24
  Speaker 6: Trump if the United States does decide to resume this war.
• 25:27
  Speaker 6: The Iranians are saying that they've spent the last two
• 25:30
  Speaker 6: weeks replenishing their technology and their launch capacity, and you know,
• 25:37
  Speaker 6: some of that may be exaggeration, but I'm certain that
• 25:39
  Speaker 6: it's true. I mean, there's already satellite evidence to indicate
• 25:41
  Speaker 6: that they've cleared out some of the mountain bases where
• 25:45
  Speaker 6: they have launchers and other equipment, these you know, so
• 25:47
  Speaker 6: called missile cities. So there is tremendous risk, and the
• 25:51
  Speaker 6: fact is that that US military infrastructure has been damaged
• 25:54
  Speaker 6: to a tremendous degree in the Persian Gulf. Israel would
• 25:57
  Speaker 6: certainly be hit very hard. It may well happen. Trump
• 26:00
  Speaker 6: may decide to move forward and try to resume strikes,
• 26:03
  Speaker 6: thinking that it will be you know, in some form
• 26:05
  Speaker 6: of a limited capacity. But what I was told by
• 26:08
  Speaker 6: a senior Iranian official is that if Donald Trump does
• 26:10
  Speaker 6: decide to do this, that Iran is going to cut
• 26:13
  Speaker 6: off indefinitely all diplomatic channels, meaning they are not going
• 26:17
  Speaker 6: to just allow a few more days or another week
• 26:19
  Speaker 6: of bombing and then come back to the table. Also,
• 26:21
  Speaker 6: Iranian officials told me that they've been engaged in parallel
• 26:24
  Speaker 6: discussions with their own strategic partners, including nuclear powers. By
• 26:29
  Speaker 6: that I take it to mean China primarily, but also
• 26:31
  Speaker 6: likely Russia, about what it looks like to establish a
• 26:35
  Speaker 6: different form of deterrence or restore what they perceive as
• 26:38
  Speaker 6: regional balance. And so you know, Iran is not just
• 26:42
  Speaker 6: putting all of its eggs in the basket of making
• 26:44
  Speaker 6: a deal with the United States. It believes that China
• 26:47
  Speaker 6: and Russia are not going to want this to go on.
• 26:49
  Speaker 6: And so part of what we're seeing is that the
• 26:51
  Speaker 6: Iranians are telling the Chinese in particular, yes, in good faith,
• 26:54
  Speaker 6: we're going to try to make a deal with the
• 26:56
  Speaker 6: United States. But if Trump, who's an erratic, unpredictable, whimsical character,
• 27:01
  Speaker 6: decides to move forward and Israel wins the day and
• 27:04
  Speaker 6: they try to go for completely smashing the Iranian state,
• 27:07
  Speaker 6: then we have no alternative but to say to China
• 27:09
  Speaker 6: and Russia, hey, what are you going to do about
• 27:11
  Speaker 6: this now? And I think that's going to become a
• 27:13
  Speaker 6: real story in the coming weeks.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: Interesting Jeremy true to Parsi has been saying he thinks
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: the most likely outcome is that, you know, whether the
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: talks happen or not, it's unlikely that because the two
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: sides are so far apart, it's unlikely that an actual
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: deal will be struck. But Trump may just walk away,
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: leaving a sort of you know, limbo state where there's
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: no sanctions relief or Ron that still has control the
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: straight off her moves. Israel's left to its own devices
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: to do whatever, you know, things they're going to do.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: Do you think that's an acceptable state for Iran? Do
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: you think that that is a sort of stable status quo,
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: new status quo that could be reached out of all
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: of this.
• 27:53
  Speaker 6: I asked that exact question last night to a senior
• 27:57
  Speaker 6: Iranian official because Joe Kent, who just left as the
• 28:01
  Speaker 6: director of the National counter Terrorism Center a few days ago,
• 28:04
  Speaker 6: actually posted that very concept on Twitter on x saying that,
• 28:09
  Speaker 6: you know, there's a third option, which is Trump could
• 28:11
  Speaker 6: just sort of decide to end the war and walk
• 28:13
  Speaker 6: away from it. I think there's a case to be
• 28:15
  Speaker 6: made that Iran benefits on a strategic level by being
• 28:18
  Speaker 6: attacked by the United States or by having the looming
• 28:22
  Speaker 6: threat of war, and because it can respond in an
• 28:25
  Speaker 6: asymmetric way, and Iran has been able to win by
• 28:28
  Speaker 6: preventing the United States in Israel from achieving their objectives.
• 28:32
  Speaker 6: And there is an argument that I think is a
• 28:35
  Speaker 6: compelling one from a purely American point of view, which
• 28:38
  Speaker 6: is that if Trump were to say, listen, the straight
• 28:41
  Speaker 6: up Hormuz has to be dealt with by Europe, China,
• 28:43
  Speaker 6: all these other countries that are the primary forces using it.
• 28:46
  Speaker 6: We've already massively degraded Iran. Okay, they don't want to
• 28:49
  Speaker 6: make a deal. Let's ratchet up the sanctions. Let's try
• 28:52
  Speaker 6: to continue with our covert and overt support for attempts
• 28:55
  Speaker 6: at armed insurrection inside of Iran. Let's let their economy
• 28:59
  Speaker 6: continue to rumble.
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: Let's let them.
• 29:01
  Speaker 6: We'll pull back because actually mission is already accomplished. So
• 29:04
  Speaker 6: watch what's going to happen to them. There's a case
• 29:06
  Speaker 6: to be made that, you know, from an American perspective,
• 29:09
  Speaker 6: that would be the wisest thingaf where Trump just sort
• 29:11
  Speaker 6: of walks away what the Iranian official though, said to me,
• 29:13
  Speaker 6: he pushed back and said, you know, the people that
• 29:16
  Speaker 6: are promoting this, Yes, it does seem like it would
• 29:18
  Speaker 6: be strategically wise of Trump to a degree, But they're
• 29:21
  Speaker 6: underestimating the strength of Iranian institutions, and they also are
• 29:25
  Speaker 6: failing to look at other parts of history where we've
• 29:27
  Speaker 6: been in much more dire economics strait. So what they're
• 29:30
  Speaker 6: saying is that they're leaning into their alternative alliances, that
• 29:34
  Speaker 6: they believe that much of the world now sees the
• 29:37
  Speaker 6: US and Israel for what they are, and that the
• 29:40
  Speaker 6: dynamics have shifted to such a degree that Iran believes
• 29:43
  Speaker 6: that it could endure that scenario. And in fact, a
• 29:46
  Speaker 6: senior official told me he thinks it's most likely that
• 29:49
  Speaker 6: you're not going to have a comprehensive, detailed technical agreement,
• 29:53
  Speaker 6: certainly not with the Trump administration, and the most likely
• 29:55
  Speaker 6: scenario is a kind of vague backing away from this,
• 29:59
  Speaker 6: perhaps in the context of a very limited sort of deal.
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: Last question before you go, why would they allow that
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: because they think they can weather the storm with Chinese
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: loans or Russian loans or I mean the Iranians? You mean, yeah,
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: the Iranians. Why would they want that? Why would they
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: not maybe start the war? No, I don't think that they.
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: I don't believe at all that that's what they want.
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: I think that they very much want to have sanctions relief.
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: I think that they very much want to have their
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: tens of billions of dollars unfrozen. I think they believe
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: that they're being reasonable on what they're offering on enriched
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: uranium and the kind of oversight mechanisms that they would
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: be willing to allow inside of Iran that may well
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: extend beyond what Obama was able to get in twenty fifteen.
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: I don't think they want that at all.
• 30:42
  Speaker 6: I think more what the senior official was saying to
• 30:45
  Speaker 6: me is, we're realistic about who we're dealing with here,
• 30:48
  Speaker 6: and if people think that, you know, Trump walking away
• 30:51
  Speaker 6: in that manner is going to mean that we crumble,
• 30:53
  Speaker 6: fall apart, and the Islamic Republic ceases to exist, that
• 30:56
  Speaker 6: they're underestimating us, just as the world has underestimated us
• 31:00
  Speaker 6: since February twenty eighth.
• 31:02
  Speaker 5: That's what it is. No, I think Iran wants to
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: make a deal.
• 31:04
  Speaker 6: I think they feel like they have the leverage to
• 31:06
  Speaker 6: do it. The wild card is that they are dealing
• 31:08
  Speaker 6: with a corrupt, gangster, insider trading businessman masquerading as a
• 31:13
  Speaker 6: head of state who is using the White House as
• 31:15
  Speaker 6: sort of his personal business platform to enrich his cronies
• 31:18
  Speaker 6: and family members.
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: So, jeremy last question for you, if you had to say,
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: if you had to put your money on one side
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: of the other, do you think the Iranian delegation shows
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: up in Islamabaud this week.
• 31:29
  Speaker 6: I think there is going to be another round of talks.
• 31:31
  Speaker 6: I think the question is going to be how senior
• 31:33
  Speaker 6: of a delegation the Iranians will send. I say that
• 31:36
  Speaker 6: with the caveat that we could be watching this on
• 31:39
  Speaker 6: record while we're also watching bombs hitting tech round in
• 31:42
  Speaker 6: other places, because that's been the pattern for the past
• 31:45
  Speaker 6: past two years. But I think there's a high likelihood
• 31:47
  Speaker 6: that very soon there is going to be another round
• 31:49
  Speaker 6: of talks.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, we're going to endeavor to get the segment
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: posted as quickly as we possibly can since things are
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: changing literally by the minute. Jeremy's ga Hill. Always great
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: to have your analysis, really really valuable.
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: Thank you so much.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Jeremy, Thank you guys.
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: Turning down to the economy and part of the reason
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: that Donald Trump is desperate to wrap things up with Ron,
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: let's put this up here on the screen.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: I love the story.
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: Trump says that the Energy Secretary is quote totally wrong
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: on gas prices not dropping to three dollars a gallon
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: until next year. President Trump spoke to the Hill on Monday,
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: and he disagreed with the Secretary and of Energy Chris
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: Wright's assessment that gas prices may not drop below three
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: dollars per gallon until next year.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Quote.
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: No, I think he's wrong on that, totally wrong. When
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: asked if he believes gas prices will drop, he said,
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: quote as soon as this ends. Wright had previously told
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: CNN Sunday gas prices may not drop below three dollars
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: a gallon until next year amidshipping restructions in the Straits
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: of Horror moves. I don't know that could happen later
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: this year. That might not happen until next year. Quote,
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: but prices have likely peaked and they will start to
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: go down, the secretary added, certainly, with the resolution of
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: the conflict, you will see gas prices go down across
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: the board.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: On energy will continue to go down.
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: So gas remains about four dollars and two cents a
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: gallon nationally, remains very high and stabilizing right around probably
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: I don't know, three ninety four bucks a gallon. But
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: the point of the below three dollar gallon is where
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: we all were on February twenty seventh.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: On February twenty seventh.
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: The day before the war launch, gas was two dollars
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: and ninety cents a gallon. So the one dollar or
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: so increased where there's likely to be some sort of
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: stabilization translates into tens of billions of dollars every single
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: month that an American must spend that America must spend
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: on gas. Then it was not previously, and I think
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: that is the most direct consequence.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Diesel actually still.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: Remains one of those where if you're not a trucker,
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: if you don't work in the industry or any of that,
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: you don't have a full familiarity of the general impact
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: that's having. The margin from any of these independent contracting
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: truckers is getting destroyed. Many businesses already raising prices, if
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: you know, I had a tow truck over the way.
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: I was asking about it and I was like, so,
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: what's what's going on with diesel? And he showed me
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: the receipt is one hundred gallon tank and it's only
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: diesel for this tow truck, so six hundred and fifty dollars.
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: I was like, I was like, so, wait, how long
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: does this take? And he's like, well, man, this thing
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: gets five to eight dollars a gallon, and so once
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: a week, depending on the toe job.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: I was like, once a.
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: Week and six hundred and fifty dollars per I was like,
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: oh my god. I was like, this is insanity, and
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: he was like yeah, man, and before the war, you know,
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: it was half of that or something like. I was like,
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: good lord, So that is a direct consequence. I just
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: gave you of a business where what do you think
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: he's going to do. He's just sit there and take it,
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: or they're going to raise a price. Yeah, it's like,
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: what do you think is gonna happen?
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: It's very inelastic sort of thing. You have to pay
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: what they say you're going to pay for the holding car.
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: You're so right, Yeah, when you're stuck on the side
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: of the road, you will pay whatever you have to
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: pay to get towed. That is exactly the problem thoughst
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: general tax on the entire country. So when we start
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: to think about all of these things, it's very obvious
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: with the economic impact. The also thing that the Energy
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: Secretary is trying to be honest about is what are
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: we six weeks, seven weeks something like that since hostilities started.
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: That's six seven weeks of no oil through the streets
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: of hormoves or I don't know what five percent of
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: the oil that used to come through. That's just not
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: going to cut it. The demand destruction has already began.
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: The natural gas problem in Asia remains catastrophic. There's still
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: so many like the shortages and all of those things.
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: While there were some delay in the fear over that there,
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: it's still happening. It's not like there's been a general
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: resumption of oil flow through the straits of hormones. Helium
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: remains a huge problem. We're okay, apparently here in the
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: US were oversupplied, but the rest of the nation big problem.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: Fertilizer is already sky high.
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: We already know that well almost certainly a'll have higher
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: food prices six months to come. And that's if everything
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: ends today, even right now. So you know, he's they're
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: delusional whenever it comes to gas.
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: Did you see the tweet Golliboff put out trolling where
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: he was saying basically, I mean, his point was basically
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: like you all are vibe trade, like you know, speculation
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: on oil. But there's an underlying raaluy which is exactly
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: what Rory Johnson's been doing us the whole time around.
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: And he included in there the Bloomberg terminal code for
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: looking up the Brent crude prices. So some real, you know,
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: some real inside baseball knowledge there in terms of the
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: financial system. But you know, there's also increasing signs that Trump,
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: as much as he you know, blusters publicly and pretends
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: like nothing bothers him, and that he, you know, totally
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: knows what he's doing and he's unfazed by all of this.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: That not just Republicans, but Trump specifically knows he's got
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: big problems here in terms of the economic landscape.
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: We have put B two up on the screen.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: This is you know, they're drawing on reporting here from Politico.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: You had a Republican analyst who said, We're gonna get
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: killed in the midterms if the gas prices do not
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: come down. So you can understand why Trump is so
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: sensitive that he goes out and directly says, no, my
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: Energy secretary is completely wrong on gas prices, because he
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: knows what a big problem this is. And that was
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: the other thing that really came through from that Wall
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: Street Journal piece that Emily and I talked about yesterday.
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: Soccer, I know you read as well where.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: Trump was freaking out privately, specifically after that one Fighter
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: chat was brought down and the two airmen were missing.
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: He went on this multi hour tie raid that was
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: so insane. He had to be shut out of the
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: room while his aides gathered and tried to figure out, Okay,
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: what's the plan. So the commander in chief was so
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: unhinged he had to be completely shut out of those conversations.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: And he also privately is asking people, you know, how
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: they think this is going and worrying publicly allowed about
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: the comparison with Jimmy Carter and the way that the
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: Iranian hostage crisis just completely nuked him. I mean, his
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: presence is already not going well in terms of you know,
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: reality and the public perception, but that the Iranian hostage
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: crisis was just the death of him from a political perspective.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: And Trump is apparently talking about that privately to his aid,
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: So he knows this is a major problem.
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: He should be because it is very seventies asking a lot. Look,
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: you know, I his very best. That's the book Biography
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: of Jimmy Carter. I recommend everybody to go to read it,
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: because all anybody really knows about Carter.
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: Is what happened with Ron. Yeah, it's a complicated, long story.
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: Allow me to tell you a little bit thing called
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: the Panama Canal Treaty, which everybody forgets now and people
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: literally lost their Senate seats over. But the point is
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: is that for a multi year period there was hit
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: after hit after hit. We've kind of accelerated that for
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: a one year timeline. Trump was already dramatically unpopular before
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: the war. This is kind of pushing things over the edge,
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: but it is carter Esque in terms of that's what
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: will become the defining legacy. But there were a lot
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: of things that fed into the lack of trust from
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: the country over these issues and with the war, to
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: make it so that when that does happen, you are
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: massively unpopular. And you know, again, look, people have accused
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: people of pointing these things out as like crisis or
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: fear mongering or any of that.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: I just think it's a responsibility to warn.
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: People, like what I just talked about with the tow
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: truck rye and Diesel's that's happening. That is a thing,
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: that's one month. How many months can somebody sit there
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: and take it. Let's put the next one up here.
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: Very interesting piece from Blueberg, A cumulative global impact of
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: the seven week war is beginning to emerge in the
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: coming week. They specifically point to all of these different
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: indexes which track inflation specifically for manufacturing, and you can
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: already see that in many of them, that the composite
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: PMI Manufacturing PMI Services PMI, many of them are beginning
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: to spike.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: And actually we saw some of.
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: The very beginnings of some of this for stagflation that
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: happened just in the last month data. But really, I
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: think where you have to look is just at the
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: OPEC number from last month, twenty seven percent reduction put
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: before next on the screen, please, because this just makes
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: it very, very clear. The world is now in the
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: biggest energy crisis in history, six hundred million barrels of
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: lost oil supply. The gas prices are up forty seven
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: percent this December fflation is a four percent and similar
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: path in the nineteen seventies.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: There you go.
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: I mean, it doesn't take a genius really to figure
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: out where things are going to go from here. The
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: same oil shock in the nineteen seventies is really what
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: propelled the US economy into problems that lasted for forgetting.
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: When the recession and in the eighties, maybe eighty two
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: eighty three. It took a long time, right even with
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: the resumption of Reagan after the whole hostage crisis, and
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: all that was was solved. And the reason why is
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: because the amount of like dried up capital, the spreading
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: effects of stagflation interest rates. It really froze everybody and
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: it also scarred a generation forever. And I think our
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: generation will be very similar to the nineteen seventies generation
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: who had to live through those very high periods of inflation.
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: It's not one to one obviously in terms of the numbers,
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: but we've lived through it now for many years. We've
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: had high inflation since twenty twenty one. We've simultaneously, though somehow,
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: we've also had booming corporate profits and you know, the
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: rich getting phenomenally much richer. So it's much more of
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: a generational conflicts, unique in its own way. But I
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: think that the big economic story for me is just Asia. Yeah,
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: I don't think they will ever forgive us for what
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: we have done to them.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Well in Asia is also kind of a preview of
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: where the rest of the world is going to be
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: headed if this crisis is not ended, this Trump created
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: crisis is not ended. They are hit hardest first, then
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: it's likely to spread end Africa to by the way,
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: then it's likely to spread to Europe, and then finally,
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean, we're already seeing some impacts here,
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: but in terms of the worst impacts, we do have
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: some insulation, which is kind of, you know, kind of gross,
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: given that we're the ones that created the problem. But
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: in any case, let's put this New York Times article
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: up on the screen.
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: This is B five.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: Talking about how screwed Asia already is. They say the
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: forces of scarcity hitting Asia may soon spread across the world.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: That Asia Pacific was hit hard and quick by the war,
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: and Iran in its energy bottlenecks scenes of crisis there
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: indicate the problems are multiplying and spreading. You have one
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center who's
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: based in Sri Lanka, who said the impacts are so
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: rapid and deep. Just from a magnitude perspective, this is
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: really very, very, very large. They go in and document
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: some of the specific problems, starting with you know, there's
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: been already ninety two thousand flights canceled worldwide. That is
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: double the pre war rate of cancelation. The largest spike
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: in eliminated flights is linked to the Asia to Asia
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: Pacific and that is because of this issue of scarcity
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: of jet fuel. We even have actually Air Canada had
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: to cancel flights into New York City from I think
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: was Toronto to New York City because of this jet
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: fuel shortage. So we are already seeing some of those
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: effects here. Not to mention airline prices. If you go
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: and try to buy a ticket now, it's likely to
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: be much more expensive than if you had bought it
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: before the war. I'm seeing, you know, things on Twitter
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: about people who are struggling to be able to afford
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: to go to a funeral or a wedding or things
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: that they had to be able to attend. And that is,
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: you know, amplified and magnified. In Asia, you've also had
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: halted production. They say many of Asia's most successful export
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: industries require enormous amounts of energy and other ingredients. For
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: the Middle East, seven weeks in, stockpiles are running out,
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: cutbacks and manufacturing are now multiplying, revealing vulnerabilities rarely considered.
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: Copper and nickel production, for example, rely on high heat
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: from natural gas and also sulfur. Both are in short supply,
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: forcing several Indonesian nickel processors to reduce output by at
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: least ten percent.
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: And those are some of the knock on.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: Effects that as a layperson you don't necessarily see at
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: the surface level.
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: We all know that.
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: You know, obviously, energy is really critical to a whole
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: lot of things, So so much of our imports come
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: from Asia. You know, if they're cutting back, well, that
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: is going to have knock gone effects. Obviously it's huge
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: effects for them directly, but not gone effects for us
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: and for the rest of the world. So that impact
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: is already here then, and you also have a huge
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: number of people that are at risk now of falling
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: into poverty. They say a UN report estimates eight point
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: eight million people in Asia and the Pacific are at
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: risk of falling into poverty because of the war, depending
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: on how long hostilities last. And part of that problem too, Sagre,
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: as you were talking before, is the issue with fertilizer
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: shortages and fertilizer coming at a critical time during planting season,
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: and you've got you know, people, vulnerable people around the
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: world who are going to be facing prices that they
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: simply cannot afford be six up on the screen because
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: that speaks to the looming food crisis here. This is
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: from the Financial Times. They say hunger and even famine
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: are foreseeable consequences of the war and run.
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: Now the world must.
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: Act to shield the porest from facts that will continue
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: long after the fighting stops.
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: So this is where we already are today.
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: Here we go in India, where industrial clusters have been
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: shut down for weeks. Workers are reversing urbanization, melting back
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: to rural villages to thresheel. The cost of a set
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: of benefit and antibiotics has already gone up.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Because of production.
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: For our purposes, TSMC says that they have enough helium
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: on hand for production in the near term, but a
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: prolonged crisis and then they're going to have real problems. Look,
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: for our purposes, we have a ton of helium here
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: in the US. But again, as I've learned, shipping helium
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: across the ocean is actually not that easy. It's got
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: to be liquefied, it has to be cool, it actually
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: evaporates over a certain period of time. Getting it from
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: here to Taiwan would be a seriously costly endeavor. It
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: would potentially there could even be shortages. There's all kinds
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: of chemicals that are caught in the Persian Gulf, even
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: like offshoots of the oil and gas entry Urea is
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: another example. I think the price of it is already
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: in an all time high. I mean, none of this
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: is a joke. And yes, like Asia is a preview
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: of our future. But also they are the closest allies
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: in my opinion of the United States, especially economically. Just
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: take a look at global GDP and global trade and
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: like what we do even with just Japan or South Korea,
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: like their societies have been plunged into genuine chaos. They're
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: prime ministers, their presidents are caught. If you read their
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: news every day, it's assuring the public about no shortages
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: and these crazy deals that they're having to They're going
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: to Kazakhstan to buy oil and all you know, they
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: had the South Koreans and an envoy in Tehran and
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: they were worried.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: They're like, is he going to die?
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: Because you know, is Trump going to restart the war
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: because he's trying to negotiate passage on the very same
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: day that the US does a blockade. I really don't
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: think they will ever forgive us, like I think this
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: will rewrite, This will fundamentally rewrite the US security relationship
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: in East Asia at a time where we needed to
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: do more to convince them that they should be on
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: our side. And they were already pissed about the way
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: that the way the toll tariff situation went down, and
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: they feel very burned about that. And now I think,
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: you know, I don't know, I think this one will
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: really be felt for a long time. And Beijing is
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: salivating over despite whatever podcast person out there, what are
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: they It's like five d chests to beat China. It's
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: like not even Trump thinks that, you know. It's like
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: they invent these ridiculous theorems about how great this is
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: for the United States. I can't think of a single
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: way that this has worked out better for anybody who
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: lives in this country except for I don't know, defense contractor.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: That's it.
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: All right, let's get to the golf, all right, everybody,
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: this was called golf, but actually Donald Trump is doing
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: a live interview with CNBC right now, So we go
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: ahead and called some of the most important newsworthy parts
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: of the interview. We're going to start with this one
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: where Joe Kernan asked, you're saying that you need at
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: least the prospect for a deal today or tomorrow, or
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: else you will resume bombing.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: Here's what Trump had to say.
• 47:34
  Speaker 7: You're saying that you need a at least the prospects
• 47:38
  Speaker 7: for a signed deal today and tomorrow, or else you
• 47:42
  Speaker 7: would resume bombing Iran.
• 47:48
  Speaker 8: Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that's
• 47:51
  Speaker 8: a better attitude to go in with. But we're ready
• 47:54
  Speaker 8: to go. I mean, the military is rare and to go.
• 47:56
  Speaker 8: They are absolutely incredible, And I built the military in
• 47:59
  Speaker 8: my first I'm using it now. The military when I
• 48:02
  Speaker 8: took it over from Barack Whustain in Obama, they had
• 48:05
  Speaker 8: just it was so depleted, so sad, and I built
• 48:08
  Speaker 8: it on my first term. You remember those big numbers.
• 48:11
  Speaker 8: You talked to me about it once. That's a lot
• 48:12
  Speaker 8: of money for a military. I built it. We did
• 48:14
  Speaker 8: a great job with our military, and we're using it
• 48:18
  Speaker 8: now and rebuilding it too. We've done a lot of
• 48:21
  Speaker 8: rebuilding also in my first year.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: So there you go. Well, I expect to be bombing.
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: The military is wearing to go, of course, could be
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: bs could be of course, you know, all a negotiation tactic,
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: but basically saying that the ceasefire will not be extended.
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: All of this is nonsense and has been in the past.
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: It very obviously could be extended, but at least that's
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: the message that he wants. Yeah, going into Islamabad, Well, I'm.
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: Just reflecshed down what Jeremy told us, which is that,
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: you know, the Iranians were upset not only about Trump
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: saying We're going to continue the blockade, but also about
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: the continued threats that he insists on making. He made
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: them yesterday saying he's gonna bomber on now here. He
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: is again threatening more bombing. So you know, in terms
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: of prospect of trying to get the Iranians the table,
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: this is profoundly unhelpful of it.
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, there's more stuff that is coming out. Let's
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: go to the next one. This actually confirmed something I
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: was saying a little bit earlier about that ship that
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: was headed to Iran. Trump is alleging that there was
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: something on board that was a quote gift from China.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
• 49:20
  Speaker 7: Can you give us I think it's on everyone's mind.
• 49:23
  Speaker 7: The latest on where the Iran negotiations stand. We now
• 49:27
  Speaker 7: know tran has publicly confirmed that it will send representatives
• 49:33
  Speaker 7: to the meeting with Vice President Vance.
• 49:36
  Speaker 5: What do you expect?
• 49:37
  Speaker 7: What are you hearing at this point, sir?
• 49:40
  Speaker 8: Well, as I said two days ago, when they said
• 49:42
  Speaker 8: they won't send them, I said, they'll be sending them.
• 49:44
  Speaker 8: They have no choice but to send them. What I
• 49:47
  Speaker 8: think is that we're going to end up with a
• 49:49
  Speaker 8: great deal. I think it's got I think they have
• 49:51
  Speaker 8: no choice. We've taken out their navy, we've taken out
• 49:54
  Speaker 8: there air force, We've taken out there leaders, frankly, which
• 49:57
  Speaker 8: does complicate things in one way, but these leaders a
• 50:00
  Speaker 8: much more rational. It is regime change, no matter what
• 50:03
  Speaker 8: you want to call it, which is not something I
• 50:06
  Speaker 8: said I was going to do. But I've done it
• 50:09
  Speaker 8: indirectly maybe, but I've done it, and I think we're
• 50:12
  Speaker 8: in a very strong negotiating position to do what other
• 50:15
  Speaker 8: presidents should have done during a forty seven year period.
• 50:19
  Speaker 8: And the blockade has been a tremendous success. They said
• 50:22
  Speaker 8: two days ago we will open the straight and said no,
• 50:24
  Speaker 8: we're not going to open the strait until we have
• 50:26
  Speaker 8: a final deal. No, No, we want to open the straight.
• 50:29
  Speaker 8: It said, we're not opening. We totally controlled the strait,
• 50:31
  Speaker 8: just so you understand for all the fake news out there.
• 50:34
  Speaker 8: We stocked and we caught a ship yesterday that had
• 50:36
  Speaker 8: some things on it which wasn't very nice. A gift
• 50:39
  Speaker 8: from China. Perhaps, I don't know, but I'm a little surprised,
• 50:43
  Speaker 8: but because I have a very good relationship and I
• 50:45
  Speaker 8: thought I had an understanding with President she But that's
• 50:48
  Speaker 8: all right, that's the way war goes, right. But I
• 50:51
  Speaker 8: will tell you that we have our military is incredible.
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: That confirmed something I said earlier. There are a lot
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: of speculation on what that ship was, why they seesed it.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: This basically confirms it.
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: It was some sort of military equipment and again their
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: speculation there was a specific type of chemical necessary for
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: manufacturing these ballistic missiles. But you take it a little
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: bit earlier to what Donald Trump says there in the interview.
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: It is more of the bliicosity of the wanting to
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: strike about They said that they're going to negotiate or
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: they're going to show up to make a deal. I
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: do think Jeremy's point here is very important, and treat
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: has been making this point as well.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: There is substantive movement.
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: In terms of the actual negotiation itself, but Trump consistently
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: undermines it because the other side also has to present
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: a win, and he is incapable of saying something other
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: than they completely surrendered and I got everything that I want.
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: And you know, maybe the Iridians could live with that
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: if they got a lot of what they wanted too,
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: and they can project it to their domestic audience, but
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: that's not where things are right now. They're under a
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: literal naval blockade, in a state of war against the
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: United States. So you know, all of this, I think
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: it makes I know that the talks allegedly going to happen.
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: I still think they probably will. Stuff like this does
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: not make it more likely. That is what I would say.
• 52:07
  Speaker 4: The best thing Trump could do with this sup shut
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: the hell up.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: Right, That would be the But of course that is
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: He's constitutionally incapable of shutting the hell up, So that
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: was never going to happen. And now you're at this
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: place where you know it really is, you know, on
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: a knife's edge. You have competing factions within Iran. You
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: have a very strong faction that does not want these
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: negotiations to go on at all, that did not think
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: this was the right move.
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: To begin with.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: And every time Trump opens his dumb mouth and presents
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: some false victory narrative, claiming there was regime change, claiming
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: we have control of the straight claiming that he's ready,
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: you know, in the words of Pete hegsett that were reloaded,
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: that we're ready to go back to bombing the militaries,
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: wearing to go threatening new war crimes, which is what
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: he did yesterday. Every time he does this, that makes
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: the job of the you know, gollibobs and the Rachis
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: who would like to get back to the negotiating table,
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: makes it much much more difficult for them to be
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: able to make the case to more hardliners who also
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: have sway and power within the government, that this is
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: an intelligent direction to go in. And it also, you can,
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: let's say they still decide to go it also can
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: impact their view of whether these negotiations are serious at
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: all or whether they're just another delaying tactic so that
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: the US can get back to bombing them and to warfare,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: because they have every lots of good reasons to believe
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: that that is really what's going on here, and that
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: certainly is possible. So I find this all to be profoundly,
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: profoundly unhelpful. And we know he's calling into CNBC now,
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: we'll probably talk to four more reporters today and say
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: ten more contradictory things, and some of them will be indicating, oh,
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: that he wants a deal, as you know, we had
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: all those true social screeds yesterday, and then some of
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: them will be probably new threats. This is the way
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: that he operates, and I think it's very clear that
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: his need to constantly fuel his own ego and project
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: all this braggadocio to the world is deeply undermining his interest,
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: his interest in getting to a deal and getting himself
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: extricated from what is a completely disastrous conflict on every
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: single level. I was listening to an interview with Treat
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: actually this morning before he came in, and the way
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: he put it is that both sides have to walk
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: this careful balance of projecting a win to their population,
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: but not doing so in such over the top terms
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: that it ends up humiliating the other side and destroys
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: the possibility of any sort of deal being made. And
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: that is not you know, delicacy and nuance is not
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: an area that this president is particularly strongly suited for.
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the more that I just keep looking
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: at all of these comments, it's clear he's manic and
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: he needs to claim victory. And Trump is the same way.
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: He's always has believed that he is his best communications director.
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: He doesn't believe anybody else can do it. That's why
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: he constantly undermines. You know, sometimes it works tremendously to
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: his benefit. His ability to dominate everything obviously has been
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: his sole skill set of the last decade. However, in
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: this particular case, I think he's finally met his match
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: in terms of where he's dealing with an enemy that
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: he dramatically underestimated and now he's stuck in this vice
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: gript where he needs victory, but he also has to
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: get some sort of a concession, but he has to
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: totally crush them and doesn't really have that ability without
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: a full scale invasion. So where things go from here,
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: I don't know. All we can really say from looking
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: at this is saying if he's going to say I'm
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: ready to bomb and the ceasefire is good, he's not
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: going to get extended. It's this funny thing I remember it,
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: you know, with the end civilization truth that he put out,
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: and all the MAGA people were like, Oh, you idiots,
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: that's just how Trump talks.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: He always backs away.
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: Well, then what was the point, because if you think that,
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: then Iran is supposed to think they're not supposed to
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: take it seriously. But the mad Man theory means you're
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: supposed to take it seriously, right, So shouldn't I.
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: Take it seriously?
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: I mean it's like you preemptively are saying that it's unserious.
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: But if that's the case, then it literally has no
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: purpose in terms of a negotiating tactic or anything else.
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: I just think this is the exact same.
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: Way, where it's purely about his own decision to try
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: and seek some sort of victory narrative, but in the
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: absence of the Iranians also not willing to play ball.
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: I just think he's making things much more difficult.
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, because there's not only the question do they
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: get to the table, it's also a question of is
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: there any room or possibility to hammer out what will
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: be a very complex deal in a very short period
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: of time. I remember the JCPO negotiated over years and
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: that contained fewer issues than what would have to be
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: negotiated here, because you'd basically need to renegotiate the entire
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: scope of the JCPO way on nuclear enrichment and all
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: of these complicated technical details. You also got to deal
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: with the straight You also got to deal with this,
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: the US staying in the red, You've got to deal
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: with sanctions. You have all of these surrounding issues that
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: have to be hammered out. There has to be some
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: level of trust in order to be able to do this.
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: So every time this president opens his mouth, he makes
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: it more difficult not only for Iron to show up
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: at all, but for there to be some sort of
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: meaning of the mind, some sort of deal that both
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: sides can live with. There was another interesting here thing
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: here on you know, part of the topic we're going
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: to originally cover in the Gulf section of the show today,
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: which is that the UAE has been asking effectively for
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: a bailout because they are in trouble. You know, they
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: were being hit. They have their brand as this sort
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: of like luxury resort country is being completely undermined. They
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: understand they've got an issue, and so they ask for
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: some sort of currency swap line or they asked if
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: that was a possibility. They haven't directly said we need
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: this now, but they've said, hey, you know in the future,
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: if we need it.
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: Is this a possibility?
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: Was asked by Joe Kernan, is there some type of
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: currency swap possible with UAE to help if they need it?
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: And do you think there'd be back last Trump says
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: it is. It's been a good country, a good ally
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: of ours. It was shocking because we didn't think they'd
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: get hit. I don't know why you didn't think that.
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: I'm surprised because they are really rich. So in any case,
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: he seems to be opening the possibility that there could
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: be some sort of effectively drop bailout similar to what
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: we did with Argentina for UAE because of the way
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: our war has screwed them. And if you look at
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: the original report from the Wall Street Journal, the UAE
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: came in pretty hard to the US and was like, look,
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: you started this war and now we're having a limb
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: with the damage, so you need to help us out
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: of this predicament work.
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: In a sense, I'm no fan of the UAE or
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: the GOLF. I am almost low key on their side
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: because look, they have a ton of money invested in
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: the United States. So if they declare force majeure, if
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: they just stop paying any of it, we almost do
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: need to bail them out if we want to front.
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: They created the situation, We destroyed the semblance of Dubai
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: and the peace and you know, the entire reason that
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: the global super elite even all want to live there.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: We have screwed up there.
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: All of their oil shipments, their banks are the way
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: station for the global illicit capital, which the entire world,
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: you know, which is very advantageous to us as.
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: To everybody else.
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: And then they funnel many of their ill gotten gains
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: back into our economy. Not saying it's a good system,
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: but you know, some of us do benefit from it.
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: And so what do we do. I mean, it's one
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: of those and they've committed hundreds of billions of dollars
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: in US defense investments. They I mean, they don't have
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: a lot of cards to play, but they have the
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: economic one. Maybe they do need to be bailed out,
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: and that's the problem I think that they face. The
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: entire golf faces really already. You know, you can see
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: a few of these things. Let's put Kuwait up there
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: on the screen. This one is a C three. This
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: is Kuwait declared force majeure on shipments of crude oil
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: and refined products from the Straits of Homa. Moves and
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: say they're unable to meet a customers obligations, that can't
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: bring vessels into the Persian Golf. Get familiar with that term,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: because that's not just about oil, that's about investments. Remember
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: then we put the biology Strina Boston take up here
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: very early in the days of the war. He's like,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: if you're in venture capital and you have any sort
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: of golf investment, you better familiar eyes yourself with that
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: word because it's very likely that you'll be hearing it
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: at some time in the future. Also, some follow on
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: effects can't say I'm very upset.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 4: This this is my favorite sea.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's put it up here.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: Luxury brands bet on the Middle East war has damaged
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: their plans. High end brands such as Louis Baton and
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: Ames are looking to other regions as sale in the
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: Persian Gulf nation's plummet. I mean, will anybody think of
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: Zegna Clothing and Ames and Louis Baton, I mean, it's
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: a tragedy. It's a real tragedy that Bernard Arnaut and
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: his you know, LVMH group is going to take such
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: a horrible hit. I mean, I would say personally this
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: would be a benefit because golf taste has destroyed, you know,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: all the entire luxury market now for like twenty five years.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: Again just my opinion.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: The gaudiness, the Trump style, the Saudi style. When I
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: lived in the Gulf, I remember, these women be walking
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: around in full Nikob. So Nikob is when I think
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: Nikob is everything with the eyes right, and so they're
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: full Nikob and they still have diamonds crusted all around
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: the eyes, like right here, and then the gold Cartier
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: love bracelets. When the sleeve would just so happen to
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: roll up, You're like, oh, there it is in there.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: These women are in full burka going to Dior stores
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: and Prada for what you know, you're wearing the burka.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: But that's what it's all about. That's the culture over there.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: It's unbelievable. So yeah, I don't know, you know, for me,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: it's a real tragedy. The Louis Vuitton and Arimez and
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: all of these well.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: But it speaks to a real issue for them.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: Again, this is our whole thing is attracting rich expats
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: from the globe global elite. That's the whole thing, is
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: being the playground of the global elite.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 4: And so these.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: Luxury brands are already saying, you know, this guy who
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: is the executive chairman of Zegno, which I've already heard
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: of before, but it was apparently a high.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: End men's clothing store.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: Anyway, he says that merchandise has to go somewhere else.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: They're hoping, they're not hoping that the expats are going
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: to come back to Bahrain and UAE and you know,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: and Dubai and Abu Dhabi, they're hoping that they're going
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: to keep spending their money just in other.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: Cities for global elite.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: So they're moving their merchandise out of the region because
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: they know that there's it's going to be a long
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: time if ever, that Dubai and Abu Dhabi in particular,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: re establish themselves at these sort of safe havens which
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: are exempt from the tensions of the region. So you know,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: this is a reality that is already there for UAW. So, yeah,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: they're looking at this whole thing and they're like, y'all
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: dragged us into this, you better help us out of it.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: And we also know there were a lot of LANs
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: and really complaints for the Saudis that they didn't feel
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: they were being protected in the way that Israel was
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: being protected, which is fair. Yeah, and so, and you know,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: all of our bases in the region were hit. There
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: was civilian infrastructure in these countries that was hit. So
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: so in any case, I guess Trump is open to
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: giving you a their lifeline. And you know, I guess
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: they've they decided that if they signaled they were going
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: to be the closest ally and they did the thing.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: You know, they took the UN resolution up. They said
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: that they would enter directly as combatants. There's some indications
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: they have entered directly as combatants that Trump would repay
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: their you know, their ally ship there, and I guess
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: this is an indication that perhaps he will.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 3: I mean, look, I like I said, I'm loath to
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: advocate for a bailout, but in many ways, I'm like.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: We did, scree, We really did. Those are just so
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: funny down here.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 3: Foot traffic to Brunello Cucinelli stores, known for their Kashmir
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: net worth has fallen fifty percent in the Middle East.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: I'm like, oh, the tears. This is a place not familiar.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: This is where like Jeff Bezos will buy a T
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: shirt for like three thousand dollars or you know, these
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: are the type of people. I think they have a hat.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: One of the most famous hats is like six hundred bucks.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: It's literally a baseball hat.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: Made out of Cashmir.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 3: That's the type of brand that we're talking about. So yeah,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: all right, maybe you know, even if you have the money,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: where do you go with really truly, you know, I
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: love clothing. For that type of money, you could go
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: out to the finest like bespokemakers in the world and
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: get something ten times better.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: But for them, that's not what it's about.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: It's just about flexing in Saint barth or any of
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: these other places to Lauren Sanchez's friends.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: So yeah, maybe it's a good thing. Maybe it's a
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: good