Latest / Halo Territory: A Los Angeles Angels Podcast / WAR GAMES: Angels falling short in wins and Wins Above Replacement column
Transcript
- 0:08Speaker 1: Well, hey, Angel fans, and welcome to Halo Territory. I
- 0:11Speaker 1: am Mike DiGiovanna, former LA Times baseball writer and host
- 0:14Speaker 1: of the show, joined by Mark Trumbo, former Angel slugger
- 0:17Speaker 1: and regular co-host. And, as usual, we have another special
- 0:21Speaker 1: guest today, Eno Saris of The Athletic.
- 0:24Speaker 2: Eno, how you doing? Welcome to the show. Good to
- 0:28Speaker 2: see you guys. It's been a while, Mark. It's good
- 0:29Speaker 2: to see you.
- 0:31Speaker 3: All right.
- 0:32Speaker 1: Hey, we called Eno here today to help us unpack
- 0:37Speaker 1: the statistic, the all-encompassing statistic known as WAR, wins above replacement.
- 0:43Speaker 1: We hear this term in baseball all the time. We
- 0:45Speaker 1: want to know a little more about how it's computed,
- 0:49Speaker 1: how teams are using it, what exactly it measures. And
- 0:53Speaker 1: the Angels, of course, are 56-90 entering a weekend series
- 0:57Speaker 1: in Washington. Playoff drought has now reached 12 years, their
- 1:02Speaker 1: 11th consecutive losing season. New Warner's Stan Kroenke is expected
- 1:07Speaker 1: to be in place by next spring. But the same
- 1:10Speaker 1: question persists. How far is this team from a playoff spot?
- 1:15Speaker 1: And to put a number on that distance, we brought
- 1:17Speaker 1: in Eno, who has also written for Fangraphs, ESPN, Fox, MLB.com,
- 1:22Speaker 1: and SB Nation. And he is an expert on all
- 1:26Speaker 1: things war. I want to start by sort of what
- 1:30Speaker 1: I call the dictionary definition of war. It quantifies a
- 1:36Speaker 1: player's total value by combining contributions from batting, base running, fielding,
- 1:41Speaker 1: and pitching, along with adjustments for position difficulty, lead context,
- 1:45Speaker 1: and replacement level performance. A replacement level player is a theoretical,
- 1:50Speaker 1: readily available player, like a minor league call-up or a
- 1:53Speaker 1: bench player, who could fill in at minimal cost, typically
- 1:57Speaker 1: expected to produce a 2-94 winning percentage for a big
- 2:01Speaker 1: league team. Can you sort of put in layman's terms
- 2:06Speaker 1: what war is and how it is measured?
- 2:11Speaker 3: I think the easiest way to think about it is
- 2:13Speaker 3: it's just a way to put everything that a player
- 2:18Speaker 3: can do on the field into one number. I mean,
- 2:22Speaker 3: if you look at OPS, you're ignoring base running. You're
- 2:26Speaker 3: ignoring how they defend.
- 2:28Speaker 2: And you can't compare....
- 2:32Speaker 3: The roster spot of a pitcher to a hitter. So you,
- 2:34Speaker 3: you have a, you have a hard time thinking about
- 2:37Speaker 3: an entire roster. If you, you pick any one number,
- 2:40Speaker 3: especially if it's hitting versus pitching. So how do you
- 2:42Speaker 3: compare the value of a pitcher in that slot to
- 2:46Speaker 3: a value of a hitter? How do you compare a
- 2:47Speaker 3: first baseman to a center fielder? That's what war is
- 2:50Speaker 3: trying to answer. You know, it's a framework and that's
- 2:54Speaker 3: why there are different wars. That's why there's baseball reference
- 2:56Speaker 3: war and fan graphs war. There's different wars and, Um,
- 3:00Speaker 3: because there's been slightly different decisions made about how that
- 3:04Speaker 3: framework is implemented. But I think it's solid as a
- 3:07Speaker 3: framework to think, how can I have a number that
- 3:10Speaker 3: does care about defense that does care about base running?
- 3:13Speaker 3: I think that's as, as old school as it gets,
- 3:16Speaker 3: it's thinking about the player as a whole.
- 3:18Speaker 2: I know it's, it feels like a.
- 3:19Speaker 3: Scary new school number and you know, it, it, it
- 3:24Speaker 3: and sometimes it'll come up with answers. You're like, I
- 3:26Speaker 3: don't agree with this. Like, I don't think this player
- 3:29Speaker 3: is as good as this player, even though war says it,
- 3:31Speaker 3: I get it. But I think the idea to try
- 3:34Speaker 3: and look at a player as it's as a whole
- 3:36Speaker 3: makes a lot of sense.
- 3:39Speaker 4: I think one thing I wanted to say, you know,
- 3:41Speaker 4: is one part of the rates and barrels podcast, excellent podcast.
- 3:47Speaker 4: It's you and Derek van Ripper with some other guests, correct?
- 3:51Speaker 2: Yeah, we did the Angels today.
- 3:54Speaker 3: We did an autopsy on the Angels.
- 3:56Speaker 2: An autopsy already?
- 3:57Speaker 1: Are you still alive?
- 4:03Speaker 2: We will definitely have to tune into that.
- 4:06Speaker 4: Buckle up. Okay, I remember, and I told this briefly,
- 4:11Speaker 4: and I'll make it quick, but when I was a
- 4:14Speaker 4: young player, let's say in my first year, 2011 or so,
- 4:16Speaker 4: I remember asking Tony Regan's general manager at the time,
- 4:21Speaker 4: what is this war stat?
- 4:23Speaker 2: I mean, what is this?
- 4:24Speaker 4: And he kind of laughed and he said, huh, you know,
- 4:27Speaker 4: and I said, what's so funny? And he goes, all right,
- 4:29Speaker 4: you really want to know? And he printed out, let's
- 4:32Speaker 4: call it 10 pages. And I was like, what in
- 4:36Speaker 4: the world? And so this was the early days. There
- 4:39Speaker 4: was no way I said, this is obviously some way
- 4:41Speaker 4: to evaluate, but so it has obviously evolved. It's easier
- 4:46Speaker 4: to explain now. For clarity, F war is Van Graaff's war.
- 4:50Speaker 4: And B-War is a baseball reference. Just wanted to make
- 4:53Speaker 4: sure people were aware of that. So my question is,
- 4:57Speaker 4: especially early on, nobody really, as players, you didn't go
- 5:00Speaker 4: around comparing wars with each other. So you really, you
- 5:04Speaker 4: know who was a star, you know who was more
- 5:07Speaker 4: of a role player. But, I mean, what does a
- 5:09Speaker 4: three-war player, for example, look like in today's game? Obviously,
- 5:15Speaker 4: I do know, and if fans don't know, that is
- 5:17Speaker 4: a contributing player and a necessity on a good team.
- 5:21Speaker 4: But at what point, two war, three war, do you
- 5:24Speaker 4: start to be an everyday regular contributor?
- 5:28Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the easiest to remember is two war.
- 5:32Speaker 3: Two war is like an average player. And, you know,
- 5:36Speaker 3: maybe if you're the Yankees, you don't want to have
- 5:38Speaker 3: a ton of two war. But if you have a
- 5:40Speaker 3: cheaper guy who's going to be an average guy, you know,
- 5:45Speaker 3: you'll do that. You know, a two war player Um,
- 5:48Speaker 3: you know, just to have examples from this year, um,
- 5:52Speaker 3: you know, they, these are guys that are back in
- 5:54Speaker 3: top 100 type guys, but, uh, uh, on the angels, uh,
- 5:59Speaker 3: you've got, um, I don't know where I can't find
- 6:02Speaker 3: one right now. Uh, but, uh, you've got, uh, Nolan
- 6:06Speaker 3: Arnauto is a two win player this year. You know,
- 6:11Speaker 3: Corey Seager has been hurt. So, you know, he's been
- 6:13Speaker 3: a two-win player so far this year. But like a
- 6:17Speaker 3: guy like Nick Gonzalez on the Pirates makes some contact,
- 6:22Speaker 3: plays okay defense across a few different positions. That's like
- 6:26Speaker 3: kind of a prototypical two-win player, you know. So it's
- 6:30Speaker 3: a player that does a few things at a sort
- 6:34Speaker 3: of average level. Three wins is definitely a better player.
- 6:39Speaker 3: A three-win player so far this year has been somebody
- 6:44Speaker 3: like Riley Green, Brian Reynolds on the Pirates, Kyle Schwarber's
- 6:50Speaker 3: been a three-win player.
- 6:51Speaker 2: That's a little bit.
- 6:53Speaker 2: We'll get into that.
- 6:54Speaker 3: That's like the DH, and this is where people say, no,
- 6:57Speaker 3: Kyle Schwarber's better than a three-win player.
- 7:00Speaker 2: I get it.
- 7:01Speaker 3: We can talk about that in a second, but Um,
- 7:03Speaker 3: you know, Steven Kwan's a three-win player. Mike Trout's been
- 7:06Speaker 3: a three-win player this year. Um, and so four wins
- 7:10Speaker 3: is traditionally all-star, you know, that's where you start talking
- 7:14Speaker 3: about you're a top 30 player.
- 7:16Speaker 2: In the league.
- 7:18Speaker 3: Um, you know, we haven't finished the season yet, but
- 7:21Speaker 3: four-win players so far this year, um, you know, James Wood,
- 7:25Speaker 3: Jackson Churio, uh, Sedan Rafaela, um, Corbin Carroll, those have
- 7:32Speaker 3: been four-win players so far this year. And 10 wins
- 7:37Speaker 3: is legendary. That's MVP. Mike Trout had, I think, three
- 7:43Speaker 3: 10-win seasons. Aaron Judge has had 10-win seasons. Babe Ruth,
- 7:50Speaker 3: Barry Bonds. 10 wins is extraordinary. And we have one
- 7:55Speaker 3: 10-win player this year, and it's Pete Crowe-Armstrong.
- 7:59Speaker 2: Future NL MVP.
- 8:01Speaker 1: You know, if I'm a fan who still thinks in
- 8:04Speaker 1: terms of batting average, RBIs, ERA, OPS, why should I
- 8:08Speaker 1: care about this one number?
- 8:12Speaker 2: I think it's what I said before.
- 8:13Speaker 3: It's just that, you know, defense matters, you know, and
- 8:17Speaker 3: I think that's kind of old school to say, you know,
- 8:19Speaker 3: it's like, you know, you can't just, it's not a
- 8:21Speaker 3: fancy team. You can't just get a guy out there
- 8:24Speaker 3: and hit for a good average. And, you know, you
- 8:27Speaker 3: can't play Kyle Schwarber at shortstop, you know, like as
- 8:30Speaker 3: good as he is, you don't want to play Kyle
- 8:32Speaker 3: Schwarber at shortstop. So, you know, it does, it does matter.
- 8:36Speaker 3: Another way, if we want a statistical argument for why
- 8:38Speaker 3: it is, why it matters, it is the one number
- 8:42Speaker 3: that is best correlated to team success. So if you
- 8:46Speaker 3: add up all the wars on a, on a team,
- 8:49Speaker 3: you you actually predict team success better than any other
- 8:53Speaker 3: number um and even better than sort of trying to
- 8:56Speaker 3: add numbers together the genius of war is that it
- 8:59Speaker 3: takes what players do and it reduces them to runs
- 9:02Speaker 3: so you if you can kind of compare you know
- 9:06Speaker 3: oh this guy's arm is this good this guy's arm
- 9:08Speaker 3: is this good this guy's arm is this good and
- 9:10Speaker 3: you get them all you compare it and you convert
- 9:11Speaker 3: it to runs 10 runs equals a win so that's
- 9:15Speaker 3: how you can kind of you start to add up
- 9:17Speaker 3: okay these are his base running runs. These are his
- 9:21Speaker 3: arm runs. These are his glove runs. These are his
- 9:24Speaker 3: batting runs. You add it all.
- 9:26Speaker 2: Together and that's how you get wins.
- 9:28Speaker 3: And I think it's, it's, it's important to consider the
- 9:32Speaker 3: entirety of a player as good as Kyle Schwarber is.
- 9:35Speaker 3: He does not add value on the defensive side. And
- 9:37Speaker 3: that does matter.
- 9:39Speaker 2: Correct me if I'm wrong here.
- 9:40Speaker 1: Um, as far from what I understand, war is used
- 9:43Speaker 1: heavily in, uh, player evaluations, for trades, for arbitration, for
- 9:48Speaker 1: free agency, maybe not so much in the day-to-day game preparation, scouting,
- 9:53Speaker 1: and all those things. When and sort of why did
- 9:56Speaker 1: war become this common language that so many front offices
- 10:00Speaker 1: are speaking now?
- 10:03Speaker 3: I think there was, you know, I got my start
- 10:05Speaker 3: on Fangraphs, and there's another site called Baseball Perspectives. There
- 10:09Speaker 3: are these sites that have produced GMs. and produced like
- 10:15Speaker 3: literally there have been analysts and team officials that have
- 10:19Speaker 3: come out of these sites. Haim Bloom is a former
- 10:22Speaker 3: writer for baseball prospectus, you know, um, you know, there's, uh,
- 10:26Speaker 3: there's all sorts of other examples. Click who might be, uh,
- 10:30Speaker 3: the next, uh, uh, Oakland, it's not Oakland. The next A's, uh, GM, um,
- 10:36Speaker 3: he was a, was a writer for baseball prospectus. There's
- 10:38Speaker 3: a bunch of guys, Dave Cameron, who was my boss
- 10:41Speaker 3: at fan graphs is high up with the Mariners. So,
- 10:44Speaker 3: I think there was a lot of these bloggers, these writers,
- 10:49Speaker 3: these analysts that came out in the public space. They
- 10:52Speaker 3: looked at these numbers and said, oh, well, these are
- 10:54Speaker 3: really valuable. And they created these frameworks where efficiency does
- 11:00Speaker 3: matter because every GM gets some number.
- 11:03Speaker 2: We don't know what that number is on the outside, but.
- 11:05Speaker 3: Every GM gets some number where they say, you've got
- 11:08Speaker 3: $ 200 million.
- 11:09Speaker 2: To spend this year. So they have to be efficient
- 11:11Speaker 2: with that $ 200 million.
- 11:12Speaker 3: And It sounds really basic to say it, but like
- 11:16Speaker 3: they on some level have to squeeze as many wins
- 11:18Speaker 3: into that 200 million as they can. And so wins
- 11:22Speaker 3: above replacement came this way to be like, okay, I'm
- 11:24Speaker 3: paying this guy 5 million for this many wins and
- 11:27Speaker 3: this guy 10 million for this many wins. And it
- 11:29Speaker 3: became an efficiency number that helped explain how general managers work.
- 11:33Speaker 3: And if you look at free agency, you'll see they,
- 11:38Speaker 3: they end up paying for wins. They pay for wins
- 11:40Speaker 3: in a predictable manner. And when you look at the
- 11:43Speaker 3: contracts that are signed in the end, they are paid
- 11:47Speaker 3: out due to projected wins above replacement.
- 11:50Speaker 1: All right, we're going to take a quick break for
- 11:51Speaker 1: a word from our sponsors. And when we come back,
- 11:53Speaker 1: we'll have more War Talk.
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- 12:58Speaker 1: And welcome back to Halo Territory with, you know, Saris
- 13:01Speaker 1: of The Athletic, Mark Trumbo, and Mike DiGiovanna.
- 13:05Speaker 4: Well, you know, you opened the door, so I'm going
- 13:07Speaker 4: to kick it wide open. Here's an example. Ex-catcher Caleb Joseph.
- 13:12Speaker 4: He's doing TV and radio for Sportsnet. He used to
- 13:16Speaker 4: brag to me about his war, and the guy had
- 13:19Speaker 4: zero stakes an entire season.
- 13:22Speaker 2: Sorry, Caleb. But he was a guest on one of
- 13:24Speaker 2: our first shows.
- 13:26Speaker 4: And he's telling me about his lofty war, and I'm
- 13:29Speaker 4: sitting there like, what the hell?
- 13:31Speaker 2: You know, you can't hit.
- 13:34Speaker 4: I mean, but my question is, is piggybacking what you
- 13:38Speaker 4: were saying about Schwarber and certain positions. It's my assumption
- 13:43Speaker 4: that they're the up, up the middle premium defensive positions
- 13:47Speaker 4: are going to be rewarded more than the first baseman
- 13:51Speaker 4: who doesn't steal bases, doesn't take the extra base, maybe
- 13:55Speaker 4: limited defensively. Can you explain, you know, as briefly as
- 13:59Speaker 4: you can, like why this is a thing? I understand
- 14:03Speaker 4: it conceptually why you would reward a shortstop without standing
- 14:05Speaker 4: range more than a, A stiff, but maybe you can
- 14:09Speaker 4: just explain a little bit.
- 14:12Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think the controversial thing is that you,
- 14:16Speaker 3: you know, for a DH, you.
- 14:17Speaker 2: Actually subtract value from the player.
- 14:22Speaker 3: So, you know, in terms of just his batting and
- 14:28Speaker 3: his base running, you know, he should be maybe a
- 14:33Speaker 3: five-win player. but then you actually subtract fielding value from
- 14:38Speaker 3: Kyle Schwarber. And that might be the thing that offends
- 14:43Speaker 3: people so much, right? Because you're like, how could he
- 14:47Speaker 3: be a subtraction?
- 14:49Speaker 2: He is a zero. He's not on the field. He's
- 14:52Speaker 2: a designated hitter.
- 14:55Speaker 3: It comes from just comparing player values in the past
- 14:59Speaker 3: and comparing how even people hit when they're at shortstop
- 15:03Speaker 3: and when they're at different positions. Um, it comes from comparing, um,
- 15:08Speaker 3: you know, just how teams do with certain defenders at
- 15:11Speaker 3: certain places. So it is a statistical, a statistical construct,
- 15:15Speaker 3: but I will say to you that this is probably
- 15:19Speaker 3: the weakest part of, uh, of war and could be
- 15:22Speaker 3: the thing that's most examined. I have a colleague that
- 15:26Speaker 3: did look at those, uh, adjustments, those positional adjustments. Um,
- 15:32Speaker 3: And he thought that they were too positive for shortstops
- 15:36Speaker 3: and too negative for first base and DH types. And
- 15:40Speaker 3: that's why I'm sort of careful. I'm a Hall of
- 15:43Speaker 3: Fame voter. Another way of putting this, war is kind
- 15:48Speaker 3: of a living construct.
- 15:49Speaker 2: It is going to change.
- 15:50Speaker 3: And I don't think that takes away from its value.
- 15:54Speaker 2: Here's a story.
- 15:55Speaker 3: Yachty Molina, right? Yachty Molina did not.
- 15:57Speaker 2: Have enough money.
- 15:58Speaker 3: Wins above replacement to be a Hall of Famer by
- 16:02Speaker 3: most sort of benchmarks. He wasn't a 50-win player. That's
- 16:07Speaker 3: a Hall of Famer, right? Well, then we discovered framing.
- 16:12Speaker 3: And we looked through framing. We put that into war.
- 16:15Speaker 2: Oh, my God.
- 16:16Speaker 3: Yachty Molina, 52 wins, Hall of Famer. What have St.
- 16:21Speaker 3: Louis fans been telling us this whole time?
- 16:23Speaker 2: He's a Hall of Famer. So, you know, when.
- 16:27Speaker 3: when people complain about, you know, oh, this player, you know,
- 16:32Speaker 3: is being penalized too much. I want to say to them,
- 16:37Speaker 3: there's some truth in what you're saying. And this is
- 16:40Speaker 3: something that can be examined and it might change in
- 16:43Speaker 3: the future. And I don't think it invalidates the whole enterprise.
- 16:47Speaker 3: It's just that this is where we're at now, you know?
- 16:52Speaker 3: And so if you want to vote for Kyle Schwarber
- 16:55Speaker 3: for MVP, even though he's missing a win or two,
- 16:58Speaker 3: I would say do it, you know, because this is
- 17:02Speaker 3: a living stat that's going to change over time. And
- 17:05Speaker 3: you may end up being right in the long run.
- 17:07Speaker 3: We shouldn't all be handing out awards and hall of
- 17:11Speaker 3: fames just on wins above replacement. That doesn't make sense
- 17:15Speaker 3: because of my Yachty Molina example, you know, like.
- 17:18Speaker 2: That's a good, maybe things we discover in the future. Yeah.
- 17:21Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 17:22Speaker 1: Let's turn a little more toward team war here. Here's
- 17:25Speaker 1: a picture we want to paint. A team that contends
- 17:29Speaker 1: in October, not necessarily a 100-win juggernaut, just a legitimate
- 17:33Speaker 1: playoff club usually ends up with a combined team war
- 17:37Speaker 1: in the upper 30s, maybe a little higher, sometimes 40s
- 17:40Speaker 1: if they're a true World Series contender.
- 17:43Speaker 2: Is that accurate? Is that the right bar we're setting here? Yeah, yeah.
- 17:49Speaker 3: And I think people stumble on this idea of replacement,
- 17:52Speaker 3: you know, and I get it because it's like a
- 17:54Speaker 3: theoretical construct as well. But I will tell you this.
- 17:58Speaker 3: Just look at the history of baseball. The worst teams
- 18:02Speaker 3: in baseball ever still won 40 games.
- 18:07Speaker 2: So we know that the.
- 18:11Speaker 3: Baseline is not zero wins. there's never been a team
- 18:14Speaker 3: that has won zero games. So that's why Winslow Replacement said,
- 18:20Speaker 3: you know, even if you just took whatever was available
- 18:24Speaker 3: from college or, you know, from the indie leagues or
- 18:28Speaker 3: just minor league free agents, if you just put that
- 18:31Speaker 3: worst team together, they'd still win about 40 games. The
- 18:33Speaker 3: White Sox just proved that a couple of years ago that,
- 18:36Speaker 3: you know, you'll still win 40 games. So the baseline
- 18:40Speaker 3: is around 47 wins. Um, the, the, the White Sox
- 18:44Speaker 3: actually set a record for negative wins of a replacement
- 18:47Speaker 3: as a team.
- 18:48Speaker 2: Uh, that year.
- 18:49Speaker 3: Um, so they were, they were under replacement. So replacements
- 18:53Speaker 3: around 47 wins. And so if you think about it,
- 18:56Speaker 3: you add 40 to 47, you get 87, you get.
- 18:59Speaker 2: Basically a 90 win team. And that's the really good teams.
- 19:02Speaker 2: And then if you add.
- 19:03Speaker 3: 30 to it, you get 87, you're talking about a
- 19:05Speaker 3: wildcard team, right? That's, that's exactly where the wildcard teams are.
- 19:09Speaker 3: So that's why wins well placement is kind of an
- 19:11Speaker 3: elegant construct. Yes, there are parts that are put together.
- 19:14Speaker 3: And then one last thing is I hear all the time, well,
- 19:17Speaker 3: it's made up. I will tell you, if you've ever
- 19:20Speaker 3: looked at the definition of RBI, all stats.
- 19:23Speaker 2: Are made up.
- 19:25Speaker 3: And like, what does an RBI tell me? Oh, there
- 19:29Speaker 3: can't be two. It can't be a fielder's choice. It
- 19:32Speaker 3: can't be this.
- 19:33Speaker 2: It can't be that. It can't be the guy here. Anyway, sorry.
- 19:36Speaker 1: Yeah, for our YouTube viewers, the Dodgers, for instance, this
- 19:39Speaker 1: is a couple days old, but a 46.5 team war.
- 19:41Speaker 2: The Brewers at 44.5, the Cubs at 34.8, and as
- 19:43Speaker 2: a comparison.
- 19:50Speaker 1: The angels are at 24.5 i mean.
- 19:53Speaker 3: It tells the right picture right yeah pretty much.
- 19:59Speaker 4: That's uh i don't know it doesn't seem like a
- 20:04Speaker 4: uh win total in the mid to upper 30s is astronomical.
- 20:08Speaker 4: And then you look at the angels and they're 10
- 20:10Speaker 4: full wins at least, uh, apart from that. So they,
- 20:15Speaker 4: the picture I think we were really trying to paint
- 20:17Speaker 4: is that they're, they're really not, I mean, the on-field
- 20:19Speaker 4: record speaks for itself, but, uh, moving forward, they're going
- 20:22Speaker 4: to have to find a way to narrow this gap
- 20:25Speaker 4: and find a lot more contributing players. I mean, the
- 20:29Speaker 4: 45 war teams that we just saw the chart, that's
- 20:31Speaker 4: the Dodgers, that's the Brewers. Um, And we'll see in
- 20:35Speaker 4: the postseason, as it's played out recently, the big spending
- 20:38Speaker 4: teams have done pretty well. But when you're looking at
- 20:42Speaker 4: a 45-war team, that's a complete package team. You're not
- 20:45Speaker 4: likely going to see any huge weaknesses, if I'm not mistaken.
- 20:51Speaker 4: Strong bullpen, good offense, great defense, those types of things.
- 20:55Speaker 4: Great starting pitching.
- 20:56Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 20:57Speaker 3: I think the Brewers have to be the model for
- 21:00Speaker 3: the Angels going forward. Not that they won't spend. But,
- 21:03Speaker 3: you know, theoretically, at least if you build a Brewers
- 21:06Speaker 3: model and then spend a little on top of it, like,
- 21:08Speaker 3: why not? That sounds like a good plan. And the
- 21:10Speaker 3: Brewers model to some extent has been just make sure
- 21:14Speaker 3: that everybody who comes up to the big leagues is
- 21:17Speaker 3: a competent defender. In fact, you know, the Cardinals have
- 21:20Speaker 3: been kind of a, they're.
- 21:24Speaker 2: Not the Brewers.
- 21:25Speaker 3: They're not like a, not thought of as a forward
- 21:27Speaker 3: thinking organization, but the Cardinals, the Cardinals way has always been,
- 21:31Speaker 3: These guys can man their position.
- 21:33Speaker 2: They're good defensively. They put together good at-bats. What do
- 21:37Speaker 2: the Brewers do? They walk.
- 21:39Speaker 3: They don't strike out that much. They spray the ball.
- 21:43Speaker 3: They're not even a pull-air team or whatever. Put the
- 21:46Speaker 3: ball in play all around the ballpark. Let the ball travel.
- 21:49Speaker 3: Put the ball in play the other way. But that's
- 21:52Speaker 3: a great floor. And so what you create is you
- 21:55Speaker 3: have all these guys that come in, and your worst
- 21:58Speaker 3: player is this guy who plays– Joey Ortiz, I'm not
- 22:02Speaker 3: trying to pick on him. He's not one of their
- 22:04Speaker 3: best players. He's maybe one of their worst players. He's
- 22:07Speaker 3: a two-win player. See, that's the thing. He plays good defense.
- 22:12Speaker 3: He takes a walk. He goes the other way. And
- 22:15Speaker 3: he's actually a really great defender. So when your worst
- 22:18Speaker 3: player looks like that, that's when you're like, oh, okay,
- 22:22Speaker 3: I get it. Everybody comes up. They can play good defense.
- 22:25Speaker 3: They can put together a good at-bat. And then some
- 22:27Speaker 3: of those guys... add to that. The guardians do this
- 22:30Speaker 3: every year. Some of those guys add power. Some of
- 22:33Speaker 3: those guys are better, or we have some money and
- 22:36Speaker 3: we add some free agents on top of that, that
- 22:38Speaker 3: are better than those guys in some ways.
- 22:40Speaker 2: And that's, that's the, really the model.
- 22:42Speaker 3: So I think that's really the problem that the angels
- 22:45Speaker 3: have had, uh, over the last few years and under
- 22:48Speaker 3: Artie Moreno has been, they've not really paid as much
- 22:52Speaker 3: attention to player development. Now play like, you know, during
- 22:55Speaker 3: COVID they just fired, they fired all their coaches. Like
- 22:59Speaker 3: they didn't pay anybody, you know, and they let basically
- 23:02Speaker 3: let all their minor leaguers go. So I feel like,
- 23:04Speaker 3: you know, this is a big thing that they have
- 23:08Speaker 3: to focus on going forward is improving their processes in
- 23:11Speaker 3: the minor leagues, their coaching in the minor leagues, their
- 23:13Speaker 3: data and tech in the minor leagues.
- 23:15Speaker 2: And improving that all the way up. You've seen the
- 23:17Speaker 2: angels start.
- 23:17Speaker 3: The pitching staff has gotten better over the last couple
- 23:20Speaker 3: of weeks because just by paying a little bit more
- 23:22Speaker 3: attention to the numbers and being a little bit more,
- 23:25Speaker 3: having the tech be involved a little bit more. So
- 23:28Speaker 3: I think that's the sort of thing that needs to
- 23:29Speaker 3: happen throughout the organization.
- 23:32Speaker 1: Yeah, let's zero in on the Angels now that we
- 23:34Speaker 1: have them on our radar. 56 and 90. This is,
- 23:38Speaker 1: and that Brewers is a great example or a great
- 23:41Speaker 1: comparison because I think where the Angels have really failed,
- 23:44Speaker 1: you know, they have a couple of star players they
- 23:45Speaker 1: have in the past few years. Some of these players
- 23:47Speaker 1: on the margins, they're just not getting contributions from So
- 23:52Speaker 1: as we mentioned, Reid Dittmer is having an outstanding year.
- 23:55Speaker 1: I believe this was before his start in Boston the
- 23:56Speaker 1: other day, but at a 4.2. Zach Netto, best position
- 24:00Speaker 1: player right now at a 3.0. Mike Trout is showing
- 24:04Speaker 1: that when he's out there and healthy, as he has
- 24:07Speaker 1: been this year, he's a contributor. And Walbert Urania, the
- 24:10Speaker 1: rookie pitcher, at a 2.1. And then Wade Meckler, who
- 24:15Speaker 1: really from a games played standpoint at 1.8, is actually
- 24:19Speaker 1: a pretty solid contributor. And there's just not a lot
- 24:22Speaker 1: of these 2.0 guys, as Eno is mentioning, that I think.
- 24:26Speaker 2: Really add to the depth of the team.
- 24:30Speaker 1: Eno, is this that big of a hole for the
- 24:33Speaker 1: Angels to overcome, to jump into playoff contention?
- 24:38Speaker 3: Well, their prospects are ranked about league average by Baseball
- 24:41Speaker 3: America as a group. But one thing that happens when
- 24:45Speaker 3: I look at their list of prospects is that I'm
- 24:47Speaker 3: not sure who's ready to kind of, be that guy
- 24:50Speaker 3: right away. There's some guys like Hayden Alvarez, who's 19
- 24:54Speaker 3: years old, that have a lot of promise, but I
- 24:57Speaker 3: don't know how close they are. You know, Claussen's, you know,
- 25:00Speaker 3: had some command issues, but I like some of what
- 25:02Speaker 3: we've seen this year.
- 25:03Speaker 2: I think he's improved there.
- 25:05Speaker 3: Nelson Rada can be, I think, at least a defensive
- 25:09Speaker 3: center fielder that can help soon. But, you know, when
- 25:13Speaker 3: you look at Rada, Guzman, Christian Moore, you know, that's
- 25:18Speaker 3: where I want some more out of the coaching process
- 25:22Speaker 3: and you know, the, the, the MO for the angels
- 25:25Speaker 3: has been drafted and put them in the major leagues. Um,
- 25:30Speaker 3: and I think that's hurt them a little bit. So
- 25:32Speaker 3: there's a little bit of a missing gap there where
- 25:35Speaker 3: you don't have a ton of, uh, major league ready
- 25:38Speaker 3: prospects and maybe they can do that to their advantage.
- 25:41Speaker 3: I know it'd be difficult to be a fan. Um,
- 25:44Speaker 3: it probably is difficult to be an angels fan, um, Um,
- 25:48Speaker 3: you know, if I was advising the next person taking over,
- 25:52Speaker 3: I would consider trading down to the studs, you know,
- 25:58Speaker 3: because you just need to infuse that minor league, uh,
- 26:02Speaker 3: that minor league organization with talent and be ready to
- 26:05Speaker 3: kind of pounce the next time that group is ready
- 26:08Speaker 3: to go. And I just don't see that like, oh,
- 26:10Speaker 3: they've got these three guys coming up, ready to go.
- 26:14Speaker 2: And the core.
- 26:15Speaker 3: Is not a one that like, I think is going
- 26:18Speaker 3: to be around long enough to, to do this transition.
- 26:21Speaker 3: So that would be my advice, but I don't know, maybe,
- 26:24Speaker 3: you know, the, the rich role, he just wrote a
- 26:26Speaker 3: piece for us that at the athletic, that was like
- 26:29Speaker 3: windows are a mirage and, you.
- 26:32Speaker 2: Know, look at teams like the white socks. Were they
- 26:34Speaker 2: supposed to be in the window this year? They were terrible.
- 26:36Speaker 2: They were supposed to be rebuilding this year, you know?
- 26:39Speaker 3: So, Maybe the question is, you know, how can I
- 26:43Speaker 3: just improve my processes in the minor leagues while doing
- 26:47Speaker 3: whatever I can at the major leagues? And just maybe
- 26:49Speaker 3: I don't buy the biggest free agents, but I buy
- 26:52Speaker 3: a bunch of little interesting free agents. Munataka Murakami for
- 26:55Speaker 3: the White Sox is a great free agent signing for them. So,
- 26:58Speaker 3: you know, maybe I'm wrong on that one. But, you know,
- 27:02Speaker 3: there are clearly some nice players on this team. And,
- 27:06Speaker 3: you know, you can also look at the Nationals and say, hey,
- 27:09Speaker 3: if we just improve our game time, like how ready
- 27:13Speaker 3: we are for games, how we prepare for games, how
- 27:16Speaker 3: we use these high-end pitching machines like the Traject, how
- 27:20Speaker 3: we do all these things, the Nationals got a lot
- 27:22Speaker 3: better without changing much of their personnel and doing much
- 27:25Speaker 3: more about how they work, how they prepare for every game.
- 27:29Speaker 3: So maybe you just do that, you work on the
- 27:32Speaker 3: minor leagues, and you just inch forward.
- 27:35Speaker 2: That could be another way forward.
- 27:38Speaker 4: I think that's great. I think the Nationals might want
- 27:39Speaker 4: to find a way to save a few more games, too.
- 27:42Speaker 1: We were talking about this.
- 27:46Speaker 4: Blown somewhere near 38, unless that was not accurate. But
- 27:52Speaker 4: that is crushing, if you want to know, from a
- 27:55Speaker 4: player's perspective. You start to just feel like there's no
- 27:59Speaker 4: confidence going. And the Angels have been a team this
- 28:02Speaker 4: year with very huge bullpen woes. I believe what Ben
- 28:07Speaker 4: Joyce just overtook the saves lead with five.
- 28:10Speaker 1: I think he tied or he either tied Jordan Romano
- 28:14Speaker 1: and Ryan Zephyrjohn or he moved one ahead of him.
- 28:18Speaker 2: Just look around.
- 28:19Speaker 3: The division though. And I would say, yes, the Mariners
- 28:22Speaker 3: have a great bullpen. And the Astros have one great.
- 28:28Speaker 3: It's not great for bullpens. So maybe it's right for
- 28:32Speaker 3: the opening. And I would say this bullpen is, is
- 28:36Speaker 3: the third best bullpen in the division as it is
- 28:39Speaker 3: right now.
- 28:39Speaker 2: And that's without any work on it.
- 28:42Speaker 1: It's better in Sacramento or wherever they are.
- 28:44Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 28:45Speaker 2: Oh my God. That is terrible. Yeah.
- 28:47Speaker 3: That is an awful bullpen. So, you know, I like Joyce.
- 28:51Speaker 3: I think his health is big. I like Sammy Natera.
- 28:54Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 28:55Speaker 3: I think they've got, they've got a couple of guys
- 28:57Speaker 3: in there. So they're, they're, they're in a better place
- 28:59Speaker 3: than they could be. So maybe that's an argument for,
- 29:02Speaker 3: for saying, hey, let's just try to compete next year.
- 29:04Speaker 3: Let's keep on trying to compete. I think what happened
- 29:07Speaker 3: with the Nationals was they expected to be in a rebuild.
- 29:09Speaker 2: They didn't expect to be this good.
- 29:11Speaker 3: And so that's a rebuilding bullpen. That's like a bullpen
- 29:14Speaker 3: where we're just going to put some guys in there
- 29:15Speaker 3: and see.
- 29:17Speaker 2: What we got. And that actually blew up on them, right?
- 29:20Speaker 3: Because they ended up being good enough to have leads
- 29:23Speaker 3: and not good enough to save them.
- 29:25Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 29:27Speaker 4: I think if you're all right, we've covered the war time.
- 29:30Speaker 4: They're going to have to find a way to get better.
- 29:32Speaker 4: And I do agree with you. uh player development for
- 29:35Speaker 4: me is is just enormous um and guys like nolan
- 29:39Speaker 4: uh shawn well are going to need to find a
- 29:40Speaker 4: way to probably start inching uh for a big league
- 29:44Speaker 4: regular towards two and a half wins three wins um
- 29:47Speaker 4: and he's a guy that we've talked about quite a
- 29:49Speaker 4: bit how's it going to fit long term uh but
- 29:52Speaker 4: i want to talk about the starting pitching and your
- 29:54Speaker 4: rankings of the top 100 starting pitchers I have at
- 29:58Speaker 4: least the Angels in front of me. You have Reed
- 30:00Speaker 4: Detmers at 31 and Walbert Urania at 76. Grayson Rodriguez
- 30:06Speaker 4: is also there as is Clawson. I think for Angel
- 30:09Speaker 4: fans seeing at least Reed and Walbert in their respective rankings,
- 30:16Speaker 4: they might wonder why so low. And maybe I think
- 30:22Speaker 4: if you could piggyback a little bit on stuff, plus
- 30:25Speaker 4: why that factored into where they are.
- 30:29Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, actually, I think I might have been
- 30:32Speaker 2: a little bit low on Urania. I think that is
- 30:34Speaker 2: a little bit low.
- 30:35Speaker 3: And it actually hurts me a little bit because I
- 30:37Speaker 3: was the high man coming out of spring training. Robert
- 30:39Speaker 3: Urania had one of the best stuff pluses in spring training.
- 30:43Speaker 3: And I really thought that, you know, this high velocity,
- 30:47Speaker 3: great changeup would work. I guess when I watch him now,
- 30:51Speaker 3: I'm a little bit worried about the command. Maybe not
- 30:55Speaker 3: throwing the sweeper as much will help him because he
- 30:57Speaker 3: really can't command that pitch. The walk rate is a
- 30:59Speaker 3: little bit high for him. And one of the most
- 31:02Speaker 3: powerful predictive numbers is strikeout minus walk rate. And his
- 31:07Speaker 3: is below average, surprisingly. But that might be because he's
- 31:10Speaker 3: a great ground ball guy. Maybe he's the next Soriano.
- 31:15Speaker 3: Maybe he's in that Fromber mode where he's going to
- 31:17Speaker 3: have a 60% ground ball. There's a lot of ways
- 31:20Speaker 3: forward for him. I saw a weird little power slider
- 31:25Speaker 3: from Urania recently that was like a, like almost a
- 31:28Speaker 3: gyro slider. I saw just a couple of them to
- 31:30Speaker 3: Nate Lowe the other day that I said, that is
- 31:32Speaker 3: his pitch. That's what I want to see. So I
- 31:35Speaker 3: think there could be one pitch that really unlocks Urania,
- 31:38Speaker 3: but as he is, he has a below average strikeout
- 31:40Speaker 3: minus walk rate. Um, he has his projections are for
- 31:44Speaker 3: mid four ZRA.
- 31:46Speaker 2: Oh, great.
- 31:46Speaker 3: Fine for them. Great that he's working out. And I
- 31:49Speaker 3: think next year I'll have even more shares. Cause I think,
- 31:52Speaker 3: you know, a little bit of a tweak could.
- 31:54Speaker 2: Go a long way. Detmers.
- 31:55Speaker 3: I just, um, I've always been a fan. I had
- 31:59Speaker 3: maybe erroneously thought that I had seen some fatigue creeping in.
- 32:04Speaker 3: He had been so great for so long and he
- 32:08Speaker 3: only threw 63 innings last year. He's up to 168
- 32:11Speaker 3: this year. I thought that I saw some velo droppage
- 32:14Speaker 3: and some stuff droppage.
- 32:16Speaker 2: Maybe I was wrong.
- 32:17Speaker 3: Those rankings are supposed to be forward looking. So, you know,
- 32:22Speaker 3: that's the other part of this is I'm trying to
- 32:24Speaker 3: project the future. I really like Detmers. I really like Urania. So,
- 32:29Speaker 3: you know, next year I would expect them to be
- 32:30Speaker 3: higher in both of those rankings to be higher.
- 32:34Speaker 2: All right.
- 32:34Speaker 1: Well, let's close the show with this question. You know,
- 32:37Speaker 1: you mentioned the White Sox, another great example. Didn't they
- 32:40Speaker 1: lose 100 last year? And now they're in playoff contention.
- 32:46Speaker 1: How can a team like the Angels, where can they
- 32:49Speaker 1: make up, you know, five to 10 war, cumulative war,
- 32:55Speaker 1: And their roster, like, where are the best places to
- 32:58Speaker 1: get some of this value that they have clearly been
- 33:02Speaker 1: unable to tap?
- 33:02Speaker 4: Are we also kind of asking, can you buy it
- 33:05Speaker 4: on the free agent?
- 33:07Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 33:08Speaker 4: Can you buy war? That's a good question. How should
- 33:11Speaker 4: they attempt to supplement this?
- 33:15Speaker 3: Yeah, one of the things that's really interesting is that
- 33:17Speaker 3: war costs $ 12 million. One win costs $ 12 million on
- 33:22Speaker 3: the free agent market. That's why player development is so
- 33:26Speaker 3: important because if you do the math, if you want
- 33:28Speaker 3: to create a 90-win team, you're talking about a $ 700
- 33:30Speaker 3: million payroll. So you really want to have guys that
- 33:37Speaker 3: you develop. And I think the one thing I would
- 33:40Speaker 3: look at is look at how many players negative war
- 33:43Speaker 3: players that they had this year. Jorge Soler and Logan
- 33:48Speaker 3: Ohapi were minus almost a full win by themselves. Paris,
- 33:54Speaker 3: Jamer Candelario, Juan Mankata. So they need to have fewer
- 34:01Speaker 3: minus guys. And so that's part of the picture. Bringing
- 34:06Speaker 3: the floor up is part of it. And then you
- 34:08Speaker 3: look at their payroll page and what they could be
- 34:13Speaker 3: looking at next year. It is actually a pretty clean slate.
- 34:19Speaker 3: $ 79 million is their luxury tax number before adding in
- 34:24Speaker 3: the arbitration guys. There's some guys that are going to
- 34:27Speaker 3: be expensive. Detmers is going to be expensive in arbitration.
- 34:30Speaker 3: They may decide to cut ties with Josh Lowe. So
- 34:36Speaker 3: that'll be an interesting decision because he will be a five,
- 34:38Speaker 3: $ 6 million player next year.
- 34:40Speaker 2: So that'll be an interesting decision. But if you add
- 34:42Speaker 2: up all the ARB.
- 34:43Speaker 3: Guys, they probably against, you know, past teams could have 50,
- 34:49Speaker 3: $ 60 million to spend. And I would look to see,
- 34:54Speaker 3: you know, if you could, you know, I think that's,
- 34:58Speaker 3: they need another bat, you know, And the nice thing
- 35:02Speaker 3: is that there is some place where they can put it.
- 35:06Speaker 3: It doesn't have to be– it's not like you look
- 35:09Speaker 3: at the Angels and you say, it has to be
- 35:11Speaker 3: a center fielder or it has to be this. You
- 35:14Speaker 3: can move some guys around. I think I would look
- 35:17Speaker 3: at third base, second base.
- 35:20Speaker 2: Just somebody on the infield.
- 35:23Speaker 3: There's an interesting player, Jazz Chisholm, is probably going to
- 35:26Speaker 3: be on a short-term deal. uh, that, uh, that, you know,
- 35:32Speaker 3: maybe a high average annual value. That might be an
- 35:34Speaker 3: interesting way to infuse some excitement, some power on the infield.
- 35:39Speaker 3: His defensive numbers have been good. Um, and you don't
- 35:41Speaker 3: have that long-term, uh, you know, commitment in terms of money. Um,
- 35:46Speaker 3: you know, then I would add some depth to the
- 35:49Speaker 3: pitching staff. I think Detmers and Urania at the top
- 35:52Speaker 3: is pretty good. Rodriguez is a good middle guy. I
- 35:54Speaker 3: would be spending on in that group where you can
- 35:57Speaker 3: get some veterans, we were just talking about like Shane
- 35:59Speaker 3: Bieber is going to be like a one in 15 guy,
- 36:02Speaker 3: you know, you know, take some, take some shots there
- 36:05Speaker 3: where if Shane Bieber is healthy and gives you 160
- 36:09Speaker 3: innings and you've got Detmers, Bieber, Urania, now you've got
- 36:13Speaker 3: a staff. And if jazz finally, you know, he wanted
- 36:16Speaker 3: to go 50, 50 this year. What if he goes 30,
- 36:18Speaker 3: 30 and you, you have like Neto and jazz up
- 36:20Speaker 3: the middle, you got 60, 60 up the middle or something.
- 36:23Speaker 2: Right. That's where you start to dream and be like, Yes,
- 36:26Speaker 2: a lot of swag too. And it's within their resources.
- 36:32Speaker 2: It's possible.
- 36:33Speaker 3: Get a good hitter, buy some depth, and at the
- 36:37Speaker 3: same time, if you don't spend all the money you have,
- 36:40Speaker 3: spend it on coaches and data and tech in the
- 36:42Speaker 3: minor leagues.
- 36:44Speaker 1: They would definitely lead baseball in up-the-middle war swag if
- 36:47Speaker 1: they got Chaz at second.
- 36:51Speaker 2: Swag plus. Swag plus. A new stat developed right here
- 36:55Speaker 2: on Halo territory. Well, you know, Saris.
- 36:59Speaker 1: Really, really appreciate your input and your insight today. I
- 37:03Speaker 1: want to thank you for joining us. Baseball's own Secretary
- 37:06Speaker 1: of War, Mark Trumbo. Thanks for joining us as always.
- 37:10Speaker 1: Please like and subscribe and we will see you next
- 37:12Speaker 1: time on Halo Territory.