Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NBA Finals Game Six

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NBA Finals Game Six · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the favorites of the podcast. We are part
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: of the Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. Today I am joined as always by
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, my padre, my BFF professional
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: I'm giving you a.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Very special, very exaggerated, very English hello.
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: Soymon, Hello Chad. Perfect day here in Burnley, lovely, lovely
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: sunny day here in the United Kingdom. It's beautiful.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Well listen, I know you've been in training trying to
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: throw down as many pints as you can getting ready.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: You've been in England for less than twelve hours.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: Are you drunk? Have you entered into any coal mines?
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: Have you joined?
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: And peaky blinders? Are you carrying razor blades in your cap?
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: What's happening in Burnley right now?
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: God bless my cousins. They bought me cors Light because
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: they said that they think I only could drink light beer.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: So I had a cors Light and I've said a
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: couple in it. So other than that, that's as British
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: as I've gone so far. So early days, Chad News.
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: I landed this morning. I'm on two hours of sleep
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: and yeah, tonight I'm sure it's like six thirty here,
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: so I'm sure after this call I'm gonna have a
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: couple drinks and my cousins. I'm looking forward to it.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, what's gonna happen? Are you gonna go to a
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: public What happens in England?
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah? Like literally, I mean that's why I love England.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: I'm a block away, so walk down to the local pub,
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: have some fish and chips, have a couple of drinks
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: and watch some football matches. Will be a good night.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I feel like you on two hours of sleep, flying
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: overnight is no different than me staying up to watch
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: the end of the NBA Finals, which is about two
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: and a half hours past my bedtime. Uh. We're going
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: to talk a little bit about that today with our
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: brilliant analyst host of the Buckets podcast, the man who
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: made us last week bet the Okac thunder in six
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: as well as the Pacers in seven. You know him
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: as the man who says the word subsequently subsequent.
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: Mister Matt Moore, I did it again this week. I
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: did really again on a show and was just killing
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: myself for it. I'm like, what is wrong with me?
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna go to like a hypnotist therapist to get
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: me to say subsequent correctly.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: I don't even think they say it like that in England,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: like it's not even a word.
• 2:51
  Speaker 5: Nope, it's just me. It's just me. I'm the problem.
• 2:56
  Speaker 5: It's me.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: That's the problem for us. Matt Moore because after our
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: conversation last week, me and Simon both bet on the
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Thunder to win in six and it's looking decent. I mean,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Tyrese Halliburton, we can talk a little bit about the game.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: There's a lot to say, not just about the game,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: but since the last time we spoke, there's a lot
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: of activity in a variety of markets for the NBA.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Whether it's what's going to happen with Kevin Durant, and
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I think that has subsequent value in the betting markets
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: for where we think he might land. There are conversations
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: for top five markets for the NBA draft. Desmond Bane
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: was traded from Memphis to Orlando. That got it to
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: me kind of an outsized reaction from people, but also
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: having an impact on what people think now of the
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Eastern Conference in the NBA. So there's a lot to
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: break down when it comes to NBA right now, We're
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: entering into that super dramatic high school drama off season
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: of the NBA, which I love. But right now, as
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: we talk about it, the Thunder of a three to
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: two lead shake Gilgess. Alexander is averaging about thirty three
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: a game. Jalen Williams had forty last night for the Thunder.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: They're up three to two.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Tyrese Halliburton has injured his calf. He played with a
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: tight calf. Here's what's interesting to me. I don't know
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: what's going to happen in the next two games, but
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: I do know that it seems very strange to me
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: how frequently frequently it takes Tyre's Halliburton to get into
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: the offensive flow in these big games. When he's great,
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: he's great, But why is it so hard for him
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: to find buckets in these big games? Too often it's
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: like the second quarter and you're seeing Tyres Haliburton hasn't
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: scored yet.
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think there's a couple of things that happened,
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: depending on what the matchup is. You know, last night,
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: I think the injury really was pretty severe and it
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: was enough to really hamper him. Now he's going to
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: get so much treatment, Like the amount of treatment you
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: would not believe.
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: I don't think people really understand.
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: It's like, oh, he'll receive treatment, and they think it's like, oh,
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: he'll go in and they'll.
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: Work on him.
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: No, it's like they go to his house, they work
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: on him, he goes to sleep, they wake up, they
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: come to his house, they work on him.
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: He goes to the arena, they work.
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: It's constant over the next you know, seventy two hours
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: before they get to game six.
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: So that was part of it.
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: The other thing is that the Thunder have high pickup points,
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: so they're pressuring him up the court consistently, and they've
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: gotten to where there it's like, all right, we have
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: to pressure him all the way up the court. Then
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: there's the matter of the pick and roll coverage. Like, okay,
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: what's the easiest way to get Tyree's loose. Let's say
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: a screen for him and separate. Starting in game four,
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: the Thunder, we're like, fine, fine, we'll switch. They never
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: want to do that. They want to play drop because
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: it helps them protect the paint. They started switching and
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: like we called it on buckets pregame, which you can
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: catch every every pregame before the finals and have remaining
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: We have left at six point thirty eastern. We talked
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: about how, look, Tyree's unders are a great spot here
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: because they're gonna switch everything and Tyrese is not good
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: at challenging that, and that means the other thunder guys
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: don't have to help off, so his assist lanes are
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: not there. It's just one on one, go get a bucket,
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: and that's not Tyrese's game.
• 6:13
  Speaker 5: He wants to shape it.
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: He wants to force gravity and then separate things and
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: create open lanes for guys or work off ball, and
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: he's willing to defer if he feels like that's the
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: right play. Jokic had the same problem a couple of
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: years ago, and not a couple of years ago, like five,
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: six years ago, where I would actually like Joker and
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: I have like this ongoing tension because I'm always i
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: would ask him, I'm like, as the like, do you
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: feel like you're the best player on this team?
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: And he'd always be like, no, not at all, and
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: I'm like, Choker, like come on.
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: And Tyrese has the same thing where he just wants
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: to kind of be part of a team that makes
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: everybody better. He doesn't want to be the guy that
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: scores thirty five. He wants to win the game by
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: shaping it. But the thunder are saying, no, you're gonna
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: have to beat Chet Hunger in one on one and
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: get a bucket, and you're gonna have to do it
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: enough that we help off. And that lenge is what
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: really works against Tyrese, is what makes him disengage. And
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: they've beaten the Knicks, and they've beaten the Calves because Nemhard,
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: Nie Smith, Miles, Turner, Pascal have been able to attack
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: those matchups off ball with the space that's provided. Okay,
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: so he's a different beast and that's why I think
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: you're seeing some of this with Tyreee on top.
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: Of the injury.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Simon, did you want to jump in because I have
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: another question.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm just like you know, I'm I've
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: loved this series. There's just so much that's going on
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: that's I mean, anyone that's just been knocking this series
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: just really has missed out on what is why we
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: love basketball. And to me, that Game four, that pivotal
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: moment of SGA and just okay, See's stepping up right
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: They're down ten points set into that fourth quarter, and
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: I don't know about you, but I thought this is
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: over right, Like this is they're down to a team
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: and you know the Pacers that can close these games out,
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: can they can they live up to the moment to
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: come back. And the fact that you know we've all
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: seen it. Sga at the end of that game, stepped up,
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: hits some shots, had his moment and now here we
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: are in the next game, right and you know Halliburton
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: goes down. He does not look like the same player.
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: We're all sitting here right that it's it's over for OKC.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: I would love to know your view, Matt on this
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: opening number, because it opened six. Professionals came in obviously
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: quickly took that number. They've taken the five and a half.
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: I know some pros have taken the five, and now
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: you're seeing some four and a halfs. Is this because
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: of what you just talked about. Is Halliburton gonna be
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: game ready? Is that why this numbers moving or is
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: this just professionals taking a stand on a number where
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: you know this is a thunder team that struggles on
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: their road. Is that simply as simple as that so
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: this is.
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: One of those, and we don't see this as often
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: in the NBA. Really takes until I think the finals
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: until we see this. From what I'm seeing, it very
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: much looks like groups are fighting over the number, and
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: we don't see that very often in NBA because there's
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: not enough interest or money on it, and then the
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: limits are lower. So this open, like you mentioned this
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: open six, it immediately pops down to five. There's some
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: four and a half showing, but now we're going back
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: up to five five and a half in the market
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: because now today we're seeing sharp action coming back in
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: on OKC. And whether that's Intel saying hey, Haliburton's probably
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: not gonna be ready, or the immediate move was just
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: based off of all right, look you pop this at six.
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: Indy's been competitive. OKC is oh and eight a t
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: or I'm sorry, now eight and one or one in
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: eight on the road ats in the playoffs. This is
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: enough to get me to go ahead and take Indy
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: as a reaction here with this price point. Now we're
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: seeing some of this coming back on OKA. See all
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: the trends are going to suggest, okay, see is the
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: spot here? It does look like Okac's gotten to be themselves.
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: They look.
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: Game five was the first game in this series where
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: I was like, oh, there's the thunder, Like I haven't
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: seen them since the Wolve series. And if that, I'm
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: resistant to these momentum shifts because if you'd ask me,
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: and if you told me, like, hey, they're gonna they're
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: gonna split in in OKAC one and two, I've been like, oh,
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: Indie wins three, OKAC wins four, OKAC wins five, Indie
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: wins six, Like that's a game script. The trends on
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: the spot with Tyre's Haliburton and probably suggests that OKAC
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: is better than what that that suggestion would lead you towards.
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: The number has been really interesting though, where this is
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: I mean this is also fighting over literally two possessions
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: here right Like this is right on the verge. If
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: it gets to four, that's like where the margin inside
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: of like five seconds, the team will let it go
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: like all right, we can't get this, we can't. We're
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: not gonna be able to close this gap. But at six,
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: now that's a different kind of margin here. So you're
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: fighting over these very very careful price points I think here,
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: and you're seeing a little bit more sharp action fighting
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: over this number than we've seen in most of the
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: other finals.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: I think, are we getting a clue from this number
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: in the movement how much Tyrese Haliburton is worth to
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: the point spread?
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: Probably not, because it's like he's gonna play, like Rick
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: Carlisle said, He's going to play. And the question is,
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: now we're in this spot of trying to put a
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: number on an ephemeral thing because we always talk about
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: like he's ninety percent eight, like there's no way to
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: quantify that. You can't quantify the human body. So it's is,
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: if Tyrese is fifty or forty percent, this number has
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: to move two and a half three. If this is
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: Tyrese is seventy eighty percent, you're talking about a half point,
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: maybe a point.
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: And I think that there's.
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: Probably some of the buyback today based off of Look,
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: if Tyrese isn't one hundred percent, how are they going
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: to win this game? Like that's got to be some
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: of this conversation is just how are they going to
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: win this game if Tyrese is literally a decoy in
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: the corner. Now, the funny part is a really good
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: reaction would be it's Indiana, do not bring your logic
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: in here, because they have defied that consistently all playoffs.
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: But that's more of a gut feeling than a quantitative
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: edge perspective. So I think some of this is probably
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: reflective of the idea of Okase he's got momentum, the
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: trend support Game six road Favorites trying to close out
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: the series. Oka see is better based off of the
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: power rating. Still, they've re established control of the series,
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: and Tyrese Haliburton is not going to be one hundred
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: percent no matter what whatever he was before, because nobody's
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: one hundred percent right now. He was not now he's
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: seventy whatever. Wherever you land on, that has to I
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: think impact your cap on this. That's why it's gonna
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: be tough for pacers backers.
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: I think in the spot.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: What's what's a little bit deceiving is Matt Maybe while
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: I'm asking this question, you can look up what was
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: the number in Game four in Indy Thunder were down
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: ten Shae hits, then they're down I think five, or
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: they're down four Shaye hits the three pointer, they're down
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: one oh three, one oh two. I think then he
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: hits that two pointer in the corner when he bumps
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Nie Smith off. Now they're up one. From that point on,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: the Pacers only score one more point. I think the
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: game closes seven. What was the spread in that game?
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Game game four closed minus six ended at seven, And
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: thank you Matt Mitchell for throwing that in there. So
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: the Thunder ended up covering that game. What a deceptive
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: cover and what a bad be it. I think that's
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: what you're talking about when you're saying, look at this
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: number at the end, the number might be bigger than
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the game appears.
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: The fears and it took. It took off ball fouls too.
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: That was the killer, right.
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: It was like they kept picking up off ball fouls
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: to get one and the ball, and that to me
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: is like absolutely crazy. Like Mitchell has commented here that
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: they covered for a total of six point seven seconds. Now,
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: I was on Thunder to cover in that game and
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: that was one of the all time like thank you
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: Jesus moments in that game. But yeah, like, Okaysee's ability
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: to win by their what is their overall margin on
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: the road has been extremely difficult throughout the playoffs. We
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: saw this not just the nugget series. We saw this
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: in Memphis, they go down thirty, they have to storm back,
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: but they don't cover. We see this in Minnesota, they
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: don't cover. They've consistently struggled to cover on the road.
• 14:01
  Speaker 5: Here.
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: The problem, I think is also a series flow, though.
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: If the Thunder are up in that fourth quarter and
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: Indy gets that sense of we can't do it, like
• 14:10
  Speaker 4: we're out, we've run out of gas and we're done.
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: There's a lot of spots where I've seen teams in
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: that kind of situation facing elimination down in the fourth
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: quarter and like you just don't and the other team, meanwhile,
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: is like, just keep punching, just keep punching them.
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: We can finish this, we can win the title.
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: That momentum shift, Like that's the highest point of adversity,
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: is you are down in the fourth quarter facing elimination
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: after playing for six months of basketball, you've gotten all
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: the way here. That's a really tough spot. And so
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: I think that both those things are true. Like it
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: doesn't feel like to me this is a I thought.
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: I thought Game five was a good Pacers cover Thunder
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: win spot, and the Thunder got over the line because
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: they were all the forced turnovers for the first time,
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: which is out of context for the series.
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: This one does not feel like that. This one does not.
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: I feel like, if you're look, if you like, you
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: need to be on money line. If they're going to
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: be within range of this game, they're going to have
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: the extra edge.
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: We can do this. We're right there. We can win
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: this game.
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: Thunder winning close to me, is the least likely of
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: the outcomes.
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: I was in the sportsbook for that game, that game four,
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: just being on the professionals we bet on the NBA.
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: I love talking about it because the NBA Finals, the
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: books get so sharp. I remember at some point they
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: were down, like you said, they were down one or
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: two points, and SGA gets them back into the game
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: that he basically gets them up by one, and my
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: buddy turning to me, he said, they're going to somehow
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: cover this game. And while only hitting or two May
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: threes at the time, and then afink he hit one more,
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: so they're up to three mad threes. He's like, this
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: is why I love betting, though, because every sucker in
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: this room is on the Pacers because everyone knows that
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: stat that OKAC has not covered on the road and
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: he's like, I know this is going to land on
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: seven and sure enough, you know the exact what was
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: it at one eleven and one oh four? Yeah? I
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: turned to him, I was like, I love this is
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: why I love betting so much, because it's like you
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: knew any better knew that was coming, right though. Stupid
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: free throws, the Pacers missing free throws. So my view
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: of this, Matt is like you're saying that back and
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: forth on this number right now is the professionals are
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: fighting because the books are getting so sharp, right, I
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: mean last game, what did they what was the cover
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: that was nine and a half? I think the final
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: point was eleven? Right, was a one oh nine? Right?
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: So like the books, even with you know, Halliburna being injured,
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: it's still right there. Like the books are so sharp
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: right now. So anyone listening to this just be careful,
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: like you're betting into a right now, a market that
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: is at the highest level. Like the books just seem
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: like they're captinets so well. So I like what I'm
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: viewing here with Matt Moore talking about I like the
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: adjusted line, right, is this not a nice spot to take?
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: OKAC minus twelve and a half, a little Brandon Anderson
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: or take the Pacers money line, right. I love that
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: type of scenario here. Or do you think this is
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: gonna be a closer game and I'm giving a credit format.
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: I don't mind this as an alt spot.
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: The trick is though, one of the things that because
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: like I started Live Bett and thunder Alts last night
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: first quarter because I was like, man, pacers are dead here,
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: They're just looking like they're out of it.
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: Okaysey's got this. If okase wins.
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: At home, their average margin and victory in the playoffs
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: is twenty six points. This is good value here with
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: this kind of number. Indiana's got a rare ability to
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: just never get kicked off the ladder, like Okay Tyre's
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: Halliburton's hurt, Pascal si Okam seeing three defenders, Miles Turner
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: can't do anything.
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: Here comes TJ.
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: McConnell, gonna make things happen. Here's Ben dig Mathern hitting
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: big shots to keep them within range. And Okasey's half
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: court This is the big thing. If you really want
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: to know the reason, it's that Okasey's half court offense
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: never gears up, their defense gears up their half court
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: offense stays at the same.
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: Level or lower. That's all they really do.
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: They never hit this this gear where you're like, man,
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: what an incredible offensive performance. They got an amazing game
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: from Jadub, they got a good game from Shay. They
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: generate a lot of free throws for Shay, But like,
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: this wasn't a they're absolutely killing them because they don't
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: really have that gear offensively.
• 18:05
  Speaker 5: It's all in the defensive end.
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: It's why I like thunder Team total over and didn't
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: want Pacers anything.
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: On their team total or the combined over.
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: I only wanted Thunder Team total because I was like,
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: they're gonna go over this number because of the speed
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: of the game. But their offense never really gears up.
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: It just you hit a couple of more threes or not.
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: They're not gonna have this dominant performance where they blow
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: you out because they shot forty eight percent from three.
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: That's not gonna happen.
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: If they're gonna blow you out, it's because you score
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: eighty and that's hard to do against an Indiana team
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: that's whose offensive floor is so high.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: When you look at this thunder team, I was watching
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: this game last night and everyone talks about dynasty. They
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: threw up that graphic about the Blazers and this is
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: the second youngest team since the Blazers.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: That has a chance to win a title.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: And Shay is twenty six and Jalen Williams is twenty three.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: And obviously Shay's going to get a bag. He's going
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: to get seventy million a year, and Jalen Williams when
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: he's eligible, is going to get at whatever max deal
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: he's eligible for. You're gonna have a construct similar to
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: what the Celtics have right where you're paying north of
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: probably could be by then four hundred million dollars to
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Shay Gilgis Alexander and to Jalen Williams. It's hard to
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: maintain a dynasty when you're spending that much money on
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: two players handicapped. For me, what this team looks like
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: over the next two to three years, who are the
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: pieces they can keep, Who are the players that are
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: gonna have to go somewhere else to get a bag
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: of cash?
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a great question. So I think there's a
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: lot of interesting elements in this. One of the things
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: that we're seeing. Zachloe was talking about this morning on
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: his show, and this thing I've been talking about for
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: a while. One of the reasons that Memphis made the
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: Desmond Baine trade. It is very difficult right now to
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: build with three players making max money and the numbers
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: I've kind of put on it relative to where the
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: cap is now. It's going to go up with a
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: new media deal. But you can't have three guys make
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: it fifty million. You can have two, never three. You
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: need two guys making fifty million, one guy making above
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: thirty million, and then a bunch of guys making between
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: twenty and five. And that's how you fill in that roster.
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: That's the new model the owners built into the CBA. Well,
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: guess what, Chet Holmer and Jadab are both extension eligible
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: this summer, and they're gonna get the bag because you
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: can see how valuable they are. If Victor wemen Yama
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: had not gotten hurt and Chet Holmgren had not gotten hurt,
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: I still think Chet might have won Defensive Player of
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: the Year, that's how good he is defensively.
• 20:36
  Speaker 5: He's insane.
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: Jadob I mean, last night was for all of us
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: on jadub Island was like, take a look at this.
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: So they're gonna extenend those guys. They got one more
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: year because those extensions.
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: Don't kick in til twenty six, twenty seven, the year
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: after next year, they got one more year. And guess
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: who comes off the books then Isaiah Hartenstein. So you
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: clear off the money. Then Chet moves into the center role.
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: Hopefully he eats some spaghetti and gets a little bit thicker,
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: he can handle getting bumped on the interior and play
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: small ball five. You're gonna have guys. They'll fill in
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: the rest of that roster. But here's the big question
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: I have, Chad. I look at the Jadab situation and
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: I think a lot of James Harden twenty twelve. And
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: the misconception has always been that that move was made
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: because ownership was cheap, And that move was made because
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: James Harden knew that he could be an MVP candidate
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: with a exclusive deal with Adidas, being the front of
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: their entire shoe line and be that kind of a
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: star in that kind of a market in Houston. He
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: knew that kind of earning potential. Jade dubb is gonna
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: have be faced with that same decision, and Jadab may
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: have a different set of priorities and maybe like, nope,
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: I want to be here. This is what I want.
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: But even then, I'm of the belief you're gonna have
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: to choose between Chet and Jadub. Eventually you can do
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: it for maybe a couple of years if Bennet's like, yes,
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: we've won two championships, I will pay for the the
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: second Apron tax for a year or two. But eventually
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: you're gonna hit that snag. It's like things didn't go right,
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: the chemistry wasn't right, the fit wasn't right. Guys misshot,
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: someone got injured, and now it's the second round, and
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: now the pressure is how do you get back to
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: that top level? And the only way to do that
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: is to trade one of those Big three because the
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: second Apron rules in the NBACBA do not allow it.
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: The other big one, Cason Wallace, is extension eligible at
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: next summer, and to me, Cason Wallace is a guy
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: that I would absolutely want to be investing in, Like
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: he's a sneaky guy that can wind up being an
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: elite level defender. He's got more bounce off creation, he's
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: a good shooter. Like Caseon Wallace. Next year maybe one
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: of the biggest names that we're talking about on the
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: free agency market and talking about possible sign and trade
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: situations for OKC Kenrick Williams next summer.
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: I think is gonna be a big choice.
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: Okac's got next year to contend. They might be the
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: first team to go back to back since twenty eighteen.
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: But the talk around the league and all these shows
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: of like how many titles is OKC gonna win? I'm
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: setting the over at two and a half. I'm like,
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: let's settle down because this era is absolutely designed to
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: prevent that, and it's even harder in markets like Okay.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: See all right, So that's exactly what I wanted to hear.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: And how what will be the salary Jalen Williams can get?
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: What is the salary check Holmegrin can get? What does
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: the salary Shay can get? He can get like four
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: for two eighty?
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: Right? So is that what it is?
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: I think it's four for two eighty, depending on whether
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: or not he qualifies. I think he's going to qualify
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: on your first team All NBA for the Supermax.
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: I'll check on that. So that one's a tough one.
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: The reality the better way to think about it instead
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: of getting caught into the specific numbers. Is just to
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: think about if you're making this money, you're making over fifty,
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: you're making over fifty mil. And if you're making over
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: fifty mil, if you're north of those numbers, even at forty,
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: it gets really tough to keep those course together. And
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: then you're going to think about the next time their
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: extension eligible down the line and what that's going to
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: look like as well.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: All right, So Simon, before we came on, we were
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: talking about Kevin Durant, how do we play this market, Matt,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: how do we think about where Durant is going to go?
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: And how can we preemptively get into the Kevin Durant
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: sweepstakes by predicting the best landing spot with the best value.
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: So there's a couple of these that I think are
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: interesting as ways to kind of look at it. I
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: think the best way to do it is to think
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: about what you're going to do immediately in the aftermath
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: an ideal situation.
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: I understand because tav we were talking before our show.
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: About like the outsized reaction to Desmond Dane right Arthury
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: Mitchell on the show, like the outside reaction that trade,
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: but like the dream scenario for a lot of us
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: is that Durant gets traded to Miami and Miami immediately
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: gets steamed, and then Orlando will fall into vision odds,
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: and that's going to be I think, a great opportunity
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: to get in or in Orlando. The biggest thing I
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: do want to tell listeners, don't get into the market
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: in the first twenty four hours after a trade. Do
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: not do it, like unless you are ahead of the move,
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: like if you were in the thirteen seconds that you've
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: got before news breaks and that market moves. Unless you're there,
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: do not buy into it.
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: It's never worth it.
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: These moves are always these trades are always exaggerated in
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: the market, and you're always gonna be able to get
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: a better price no matter what it is, Like it's
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: very rare that you don't get a better price.
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: And also you're saying, Matt Metell, I mean more, it's
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: be careful people when you're betting in those markets. That's
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: how you get banned. Like people don't realize it. Like books,
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: they're looking for people like you that are ahead of
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: the marketer or you're getting intel quicker than them. So
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: I feel like he's giving you good advice here of
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: just being careful of betting these type of numbers because
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: either you're gonna get got because you're getting bad information,
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: or you're making a bad decision trying to buy in
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: early and try to get a good number.
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: So as far as Katie's landing spot right now, the
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: favorites in the market are tied between Miami and Houston.
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: I would say Houston is more likely because that's a
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: solution where everyone wins. Katie wants to go to Houston,
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: Houston gets an offensive upgrade, and Houston can afford to
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: send stuff back to Phoenix that Phoenix isn't gonna be
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: thrilled with. It's not the hall they want. But if
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: the options are Andrew Wiggins and a bad first or
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: Jalen Green potentially Jabari Smith and a pretty good first,
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: especially if it's one of your own that they own
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: all of, that's a pretty good situation. Phoenix will Houston
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: will try and squeeze him for it. The best way
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: to kind of think of it. For Houston, there is
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: a disagreement there. I think Imadoka wants Kevin Durant. He
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: wants to win now because coaches want to win now,
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: and he knows like, give me Kevin Durant and my
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: defense and we'll go win games. Raphael Stone GM I
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: think is like we got to be we can.
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: Get a top.
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: Like if we keep squeezing them, we can get Devin Booker,
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: who's younger, a lot more upside. We can have him forever,
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: or we can go get another guy. With all these assets,
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: our investment in Phoenix's draft picks are only going to improve.
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: Look how desperate they are and that battle I think
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: is really interesting, Like does Phoenix wanted does Houston want
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: to help out Phoenix in this deal? But they are
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: a team that can help them out without saving them,
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: And then so to me, between those two is valuable.
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: The long shot for me is the Clippers at fifty
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: to one. They have consistently been They got popped up
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: over the weekend.
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: First it was like, oh, yeah.
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: It's Houston, It's Houston, San Antonio, Miami, New York, Minnesota,
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: and then all of a sudden, the Clippers started popping
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: up over the weekend. They've had a lot of talks,
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: Like I've heard about Clippers talks four weeks now. I
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: don't think there is substantive as talks between Minnesota, Houston,
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: San Antonio, even Miami. I don't think there is substantive,
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: but I do think that those conversations have been held,
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: and I think that the Clippers, especially if you're matt
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: Ishbia and you're like, I don't want to be bad,
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: I don't care about draft picks. I want to win games.
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: I told them that we would win.
• 27:49
  Speaker 5: Let's win. We got Devin Booker, let's win.
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: The Clippers can at least give you, like Norman Powell,
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: guys that will help you win. Now they're gonna want
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: Zoobach and I don't think the Clippers are gonna give
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: them up.
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: But if they were to ever.
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: Change on that, then boy, would that be a really
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: great situation to be a terrible trade for the Clippers.
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: But I also think Balmer, you know, coming off of
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: that playoff loss, wants to get more people into that
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: great new arena. I think that Katie makes a lot
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: of sense for them putting them back with Harden. So
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: Clippers fifty to one to me is the best long
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: shot in the market.
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel like what you touched on that we
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: all know the East is wide open, you know, the professionals,
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: and it feels like the public are final. It's Orlando, right,
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: Is that the team that everyone's just piling in on
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: now to win the East because they're just a team
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: that people think they can make up Pacers run he
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: or Is that kind of fool's gold here that we're buying.
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: I think.
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: I think that nobody really knows yet. Like I wouldn't
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: buy into the East market at all right now because
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: you don't know if the Knicks are going to move
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: somebody to make another thing, because they got a lot
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: of chemistry questions, like, they got things they got to
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: figure out. I think Indiana you got to wait to
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: see what Miles Turner does. Like Miles Turner is up there.
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: If some team just comes in and is like, yeah,
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: we don't care, we'll pay forty Monell that's a huge
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: price for Miles Turner. It's also ten more than what
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: Indiana wants to pay him. I think they settle at
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: thirty five. But if somebody offers him forty, then you
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: could probably get Miles Turner in free agency. The Calves
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: are probably good value just because they're going to return
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: the same kind of guys, but they might make a move.
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: I think Jared Allen might be gone and you don't
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: know what they're going to get back for him. Orlando's
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: maybe good value at plus eight hundred, but I'm still
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: kind of like, are you really going to want a
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: big position on Orlando if they're in the conference finals
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: versus a veteran team that's been there and knows what
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: they're doing. Like, I like Orlando a lot, but I'm
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: not sure that I feel like they're going to be
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: the thunder. I don't think they're going to be that
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: kind of a team. Pistons actually, to me, is probably
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: the best value at twenty to one because they're only
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: going to get better and they got some They are
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: shopping in free agency like they are going for it.
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: So I think Detroit's really interesting at twenty to one.
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: It's going to be interesting, though, chat to see what
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: free agent wants to go to Detroit though, right like
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: in the NBA, like we're talking about Miami San Antonio,
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: like it's it's gonna be funny with Kevin Durant to
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: somehow ended up in Detroit.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Well, look, he doesn't want to go to Minnesota. We know,
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: and a lot of guys, but it becomes like one
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: of those things, how much do you want to ring?
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: How much do you want to play with Kaid Cunningham?
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: How much do you like JB. Bickerstaff? That roster showed
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: so well against the Knicks. That was a much closer
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: series than I think anyone anticipated.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: And so if I want.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: To win, I'm a mid I'm sort of a mid
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: career free agent. You get a really young team that's
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: got a great culture. Why wouldn't you go take a
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: shot four years try.
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: To win your title? Matt Moore, I like it.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Tasty, tasty stuff. Thank you for giving us the thunder
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: and six. I hope you continue to give us more
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• 31:07
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