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AFC West Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five, part of the Action Network. I am Chad Milman,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are continuing
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: our division preview series here on The Favorites. Today we
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: are talking AFC West, I think the most interesting division
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: in football. Plus Thursday night we got the Hall of
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Fame game between the Jets and the Browns. So much
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: to unpack with my bff, my companion, my compadre professional
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: better mister Simon Hunter.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Eto, So I am.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: In, Hello Chad. Yes, football is back, my guy.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Are you gonna watch the game tonight?
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, yeah.
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: And we're in the boat with people that it's awful.
• 0:56
  Speaker 4: But then I got to remind people people watch college football.
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: High school football is better than that apparently, so it's terrible.
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: But we got football backchat Listen.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: I'm so excited about it. I realized this morning. And
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: we're going to talk a little bit about our take
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: on the game in a minute.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I didn't have to think. Am I gonna watch Righteous Gemstones?
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Am I gonna watch Narcos? Am I gonna have to
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: watch the staff?
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: Like?
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Like, I don't have to think about what I'm gonna
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: watch tonight because I know I have something on television
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: that I'm going to watch, and it's real, live NFL football,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: even if it's Zach Wilson, even if it's the Cleveland Browns.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: I got an interesting take on this. Let me remind
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: everybody that we are presented by Bet three six '
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: five that is the world's favorite sportsbook brand.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: Hold on one second.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Sign up with promo code Action to get BET three
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: six y five exclusive sign up offer. Bet one dollar
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: on any game and get two hundred dollars in bonus.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Bets must be twenty one or older. Offer available in Colorado,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa. Gambling Problem caller Text
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler Simon You and Kerner did a
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: podcast earlier in the week and Action Network podcast on
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Monday talking about betting the preseason. I have a very
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: strong opinion on this game, the first preseason game of
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: the year. What is your take both preseason broadly and
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: on this game.
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say I'm betting this game, Chad, But
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: do I really have a huge edge?
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: Now?
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: I'm just betting it because football is back and I
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: want some action. I want some action on this game,
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: and I want some action on fading Zach Wilson. So
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: I did take the Browns at plus one and a
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: half us too. No real logical other than every one
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: of their grandmam's taking the Jets. And you know, I
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: get it. Zach Wilson's a known name. He should perform
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: better than the Browns quarterbacks.
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: But you know, it's just.
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: I like I like back in running quarterbacks. A lot
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: of other people really don't. But in preseason I tend
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: to go with the athletes, guys I know are going
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: to throw the ball less. So I'm betting the Browns,
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: but I know.
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: That this is.
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: This is one of those games, yet we just bet
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: to bet, right, It's just it's the first game of
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: the year.
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: It's kind of those we just got to do it.
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: So it's probably gonna be my smallest bet of the season,
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: but it is my first bet of the season.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: So I was sort of trying to figure out what
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I was going to do in this game. This morning
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: I opened the Action Network AAP and the lead story
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: is by Chris Raybon analyzing the game for tonight. Here's
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: his opening line, and it got me already to bet
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: this game. In the latest bit of evidence that the
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: world as we know it is coming to an end,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: seventy eight percent of the public has decided to kick
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: off the twenty twenty three NFL season by betting, and
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: under fact number one that made me think, huh.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: The totals at thirty three and a half.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Am I going to end up betting the over in
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: the first game, in the Hall of Fame game between
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: the Browns and the Jets. He goes on to say
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: to me, not only do Robert Sala and Kevin Stefanski
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: tend to play to the over, but the quarterbacks in
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: this game, when they play in the preseason, which is
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the only time they play, tend to perform to the over.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Preseason overs with a total below thirty seven are sixty
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: eight percent, two twenty one, one sixty three and six
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent. I'm sorry since two thousand and seven,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: So I bet the over. I bet the over thirty
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: three and a half. I'm the Hall of Fame game tonight,
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: and I'm just banking on Kevin Stefanski Robert Sala deciding
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: to unleash their second, third, and fourth string quarterbacks in
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Can't no higher tonight.
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: There you go.
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: And I saw sala Is five and one in his
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: early career here in preseason game straight up. So I'm
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: going against the grain taking taking the Browns. But Chad,
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: just nail on the head.
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: It is.
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: The first preseason game of the year. People don't don't
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: put too much, too much honest in this one.
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: It's stupid yet so fun. Yeah, so so fun.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Reminded, Look, I'm reminded that everybody comes around to betting
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: preseason football. Once upon a time, Trey Wingo tweeted, who
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: would bet on preseason football? Only an idiot would bet
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: on preseason football. Soon enough, Trey Wingo was working for Caesars.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: So it all comes around. Everyone realizes it A true story.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: The first published story I ever had as a journalist.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: I was an intern for Pro Football Weekly, which was
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: about ten minutes from my house in the suburbs of Chicago,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: and it was they were finishing the summer. I was
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: finishing the summer.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: I was.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: I always made a point to do all the filing
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: I had to do, because you know, back then it
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: was all paper, so you were like always filing back
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: issues and stuff, and the filing cabinet was next to
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: the editor in chief's office, so I made a point
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: of always filing what I needed to file when he
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: was having his big editorial meeting. So I overheard them saying,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: we need someone to do a story. I think it
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: was about like somebody, maybe Frank o'haris was going into
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame or something, and I pulled him
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: out when he walked out of the office, I pulled
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: him aside. I'm like, listen, I'm going to be in
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Canton for the Hall of Fame. If you want me
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: to write a story about it. I'm like, I wasn't
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: making him pay for anything. Also, I wasn't going to
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: be in Canton for the Hall of Fame. I totally
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: made it up. He's like, yeah, that sounds great, you
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: should do it. So then I went home and I
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: begged my dad to book a trip to Canton for
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame with me and him. Like, Dad,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: let's do a father son trip. Let's go to Canton
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: for the Hall of Fame. We went to Canton for
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame. I wrote a story about Franco
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Harris for Pro Football Weekly, my very first story ever
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: published international magazine.
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: And that my kids. Is called initiative. Always have initiatives.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Oh it put yourself in the right place at the
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: right time. That's the advice I always give people. Be
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: where the jobs are. Say yes, be nice, be where
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: the jobs are. Anyways, that's our take on career. That's
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: our take on the New York Jets Cleveland Browns Hall
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: of Fame game. I'm so excited for our AFC West
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: preview today because, in my opinion, it is the most
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: interesting division in the NFL. You have the best quarterback
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes. You have the highest
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: paid quarterback in Justin Herbert. You have the quarterback that
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: is the most polarizing in Russell Wilson. Either you believe
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: he's a Hall of Famer or you believe he was
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: a product of the system who happened to be a
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: decent athlete, had great coaching, and this is a make
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: or break year because he's finally with a coach who
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: can take advantage of all of his talents. You got
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: the best looking quarterback in the NFL who also happens
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: to be very fragile and has been paid gobs of
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: money for basically being able to throw the ball. Semi
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: accurately ten yards downfield. Did I cover it all?
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty much nailed on the head.
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: So here we go.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: We got the AFC West, We got the Chiefs, we
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: got the Chargers, we got the Broncos, we got the Raiders.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Chiefs minus one sixty on bet three sixty five Chargers
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: plus three hundred to win the division, Uncles plus five
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: fifty Raiders plus twelve hundred. We'll talk about division. We'll
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: talk about season win totals for all these teams. Who
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: do you want to start with, Simon, what's the most
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: interesting angle of season win totals and division odds for
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: you in the AFC West.
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: Well, I mean, for a little listener to the show,
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: you know, my biggest bet early in the season for
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: win totals was the Raiders under the Raiders open at
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: seven and a half minus one forty. We just obliterated
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: that number. I mean, it's it's down to six and
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: a half now.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: A lot of books it's seven and a half minus
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: two hundred and bet three sixty five.
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: And that makes sense.
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: It was just a bad number to hang by the
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: books in this sense of I had a lot of
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: questions coming into this season about Jimmy, right, I think
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: Jimmy was coming off a big injury. They'd give him
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: a weird contract where they could get out of it
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: at any point if he failed as physical And it
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: was me fading Josh McDaniels.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: Like they're head coach. I just we've yet to see
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: it chat right.
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: We've had this guy now coach multiple teams for different seasons,
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: and I'll never forget how good it started for him
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: in Denver. Remember how good that was there. I think
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: at one point there at six and L six and L. Yeah.
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: Everything he's done since then has just been negative. And
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: even last year a lot of people want to put
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: on Derek Carr. I think a lot of it was
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: on McDaniels. So to me, this team, I would still
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: take their under. If you don't want to pay that juice,
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: you can get the There's different books that have different
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: numbers on that. I would still take the under at
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: six and a half. I have him at six wins,
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: so six point one to be exact.
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: I just.
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: Again, I hate to shoot on this Raiders team because
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: they do have some talent across the board, right, they
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: have some big, big name talent on this team. To me,
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: They're going to be a like Devanta Adams. I can
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: see him throwing a little a fit to get out
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: of there midway through this season. I mean, they're just
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: there's a lot of red flags here, and I know
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: people keep saying, well, that's this team set up for
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: Tom Brady to step in and take over. I just
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: can't see Tom screwing with his legacy like this, Like
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: the guy is he really want to be? This guy's
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: gonna keep unretiring, retiring, I can't see it. Tom's already
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: said he's not been doing his off season workout, so
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: he already talked about it. He can feel the difference
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: in not doing his off season workout. So I get
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: people's fear about touching this number because they're scared Tom
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: might step in with his team. That is not going
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: to happen. So to me, this is one of the
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: safer unders I bet this year. Just a team that's
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: gonna be bet on by people that live in Vegas.
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: Outside of Vegas, I just don't see why people take
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: this over. They're in the best division of football and
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: they clearly have the worst quarterback in that division. So
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: shocked this number is still seven and a half but
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: there it makes sense just because the Vegas the Vegas
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: local love that they get.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Yet, yeah, Tom Brady to quote, to paraphrase Rip Patino,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: tom Brady's not walking through that door. He's focused on
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: you know, he just bought a soccer team today. He's
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the chairman of the board of the soccer team. This guy,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: he does not look like a guy who's interested in
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: finding a way to come back to the NFL. On
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: the eve of the NFL season starting, I was doing
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: a little research yesterday. You know, I like to do
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: my work. Even though I'm a high powered executive and
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: got a lot going on, like a lot, I still
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: like to do the work for the podcast. So I
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: went through a bunch of different sort of markers for
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: each team in the division. I went through Shan Crooner's
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: QB tiers, which you can see in the Action Network
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: app and Actionnetwork dot Com. I went through Shankerner's strength
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: of schedule, and I went through Pro Football Focus offensive
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: and defensive line rankings, because Simon, I know that's one
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: of the most important things for you, right So.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: Jimmy g.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Tier nine of Kerner's quarterback rankings, Damn doesn't get.
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: Much lower that's pretty tough.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: I think it goes to ten.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Okay, obviously you can imagine Mahomes and Tier one Herbert
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: and tier two. The Raiders, not surprising considering how good
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: their division is, have the ninth hardest schedule in the
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: NFL per Sewan Kerner. And this is what got me
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: where I would bet the under seven and a half.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: I might look for an alt line of under six
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: and a half if it's available, and get better juice,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: because the according to PFF, the Raiders have the number
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: nineteen ranked offensive line overall. So this is a bad
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: team in every single way. And then they've got, as
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: you said, DeVante Adams, who will probably be disgruntled. They
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: also got Josh Jacobs who will definitely be disgruntled. Right,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: So this is a team that is set up for
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: a lot of drama, a lot of frustration, a lot
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: of helmet throwing, a lot of this is bullshit, a
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: lot of we don't know what our coach is doing.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: I would look for outlines and bet the under six
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm looking here, bet three six y five.
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: They do it. They do have it.
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: At their liveline right now is six and a half
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: minus one twenty five right now, so they're under is
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: still juiced minus one twenty five, which makes sense, right,
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's just it's just a number that the
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: pro has been betting, and it makes sense they moved
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: it now. It's still juiced towards the under at six
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: and a half, so hopefully people were following me in
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: the action app right, gave it out at seven and
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: a half in mid I want to say mid March,
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: mainly the end of March, and it's just been dropping
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: ever since then, so easier bets chat to make. This
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: is one of them where it's just like, right when
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: I knew that, right when this number is gonna co out,
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: iknew I was gonna take the under, and it's always
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: nice to you're head of the party, right everyone everyone
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: eventually came in and bet this under. I still think
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: it's gonna keep moving. I think is the as the
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: preseason goes along, gar and you just get more tape
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: of Jimmy and making terrible throws and throwing more picks.
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: I think this number will keep moving down, So I
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: would grab it now if you could.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Well look yesterday it was seven and a half minus
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: two hundred, so it's moved just since yesterday, and maybe
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: maybe the people at bet three six five got a
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: load of our rundown and they knew we were gonna
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: be talking talking down the Raiders under it's interesting to
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: me that we're talking about the Raiders. Then what we're
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: gonna end up doing here is we're just going from
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: the bottom up because the next team to talk about
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: is the Broncos. On the Denver Broncos, last year, I
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: loved you, hated you were right, I was wrong. This year,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: you're a much bigger buyer on the Broncos. Plus five
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: point fifty to the win the division. Their season win
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: total at bet three six five is eight and a half.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: It's basically I think minus won ten on both sides
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: over or under. Sean Payton, having quite the loud preseason,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: came out and basically ripped Nathaniel Hackett. This has been
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: really interesting because a part of me is looking at
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: this and saying he might think this team is worse
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: than he thought, and so he's trying to get ahead
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: of it by saying how fucked up things were before
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: he got there and making it public.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: To downplay expectations.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Because he also probably knows the Simon Hunters of the
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: world out there think I'm a genius, and no, I'm
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: a football crazy person and I'm going to do wonders
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: with Russell Wilson, who everyone thinks is cooked.
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think honestly, it was just about Russell Wilson.
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: That's why I said all that. I truly believe he's
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: in the same mindset of me of this guy might
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: be broken. Russ might have been broken after last year.
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: Like that's football, is that that sliver of a line
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: of it's how cocky are you mentally and how confident.
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: Are mentally in your own ability?
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: And if you lose that, if you lose that edge,
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: it's over. I mean, we Carson Wentz, We've seen him
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: as a prime example something he's broken in that guy's head.
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: He's never been the same since his MVP run of
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: that season he had the year that he goes on
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: Super Bowl. That's how quick it can go. You can
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: have all the ability in the world, it doesn't really matter.
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: So to me, Sean Payton was kind of sticking up
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: for Russ there, really letting him know that none of
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: the last year was his fault. And I think that's
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: what the whole point of that was where anyone that
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: watches football, I mean, I think it was the Monday
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: night chat the first game we saw of Nathan and
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: that him running this Denver team against Seahawks, where we
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: were both like, this guy does not know what he's doing.
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: He does not know what he's doing to coaches situations,
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: let alone how to draw up an offensive scheme that
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: fit Russ. So you nailed the Chad. It's it's a guarantee.
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: If you're a fan of the show, you know last
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: year all I did was shit on Denver. It was
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: just it was a perfect storm of I believe in
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: the regression of Russell Wilson. He had been progressing two
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: years before that, and it was of the uncertainty of
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: the new head coach Ad just hired to step in
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: to coach him. So this year, it's a whole one
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: to eighty for me. I'm I guess I would put
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: a top three. This is probably one of my bigger
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: bigger bets at in the season, which is Denver to
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: win this division plus five fifty plus six hundred plus
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: five hundred. You could find the Chiefs had won this
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: division seven straight seasons. Andy Reid has won this division
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: seven straight seasons, so a few kids out there, that
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: means he's been won in this division. With Alex Smith
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: and then transitioning to Patrick Mahomes Di di miss A
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: beat seven straight years winning this division. So do I
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: wish the sportsbooks would giveus that minimum plus eight hundred?
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: Chad? They should? I mean, this is how crazy and
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: ray it would be for someone else to take this division.
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: Letone Denver who you know?
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: I think most people don't know that Denver just has
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: not played well all against the Chiefs these last couple
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: of years. I mean there's some crazy stat where I
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: don't think they beat him in like three years something
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: like that. So you know, I get the questions from
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: a lot of people, why why do I love Denver
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: so much? I think Chad talked about a little bit
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: where it is the Sean Payton factor. I do believe
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: Drew Brees is an incredible quarterback. He's in a Hall
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: of Famer. I think Sean Payton people are gonna learn
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: pretty quick he was the reason he was so good.
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: He really does take whatever you're great at and he
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: amplifies it. And with Drew Brees, he did not have
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: the biggest arm, the strongest arm, but he was deadly accurate.
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: And that's really what that offense was built around, was
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: these quick in and out West Coast patterns where guys
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: were getting open after five six yards and that'll lead
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: to big open downfield plays. He talked with Russ. The
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: biggest thing that Scoup last year is not gettinghim outside
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: the pocket. That's really where Russell Wilson is so talented
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: outside the pocket. So to me, the over eight and
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: a half wins them and them divisionally.
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: I love it. Chat.
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: It's just a team that I think we talked earlier
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: this year about them. The stat I love about them
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: last year was if they had just scored more than
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: eighteen points through ten weeks last year, they would have
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: been nine on one like that right there, So you
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: know this is a complete team. They were just missing
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: a leader, and that leader was their coach. Like, I
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: really can't get over how big of a different seanp
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: Page should make for this team.
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: So I get it, people. I was all in on
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs last year.
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: It's it feels nice and easy being all in the
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: Chiefs right especially in this division. But this year the
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: value is just too much to pass on this Broncos team,
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: like this should be closer a plus four hundred. The
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: public is totally done with this team, like they're just
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: out on the Broncos.
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: To me, they still have all the weapons on offense.
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: I know that Tim Patrick injury sucks, but you know
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: they still have their two stud receivers in Sutton and Judy,
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: and defensively, I just see them improving off what they
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: had built last year. So I'm in on the Broncos chat.
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: I just love this number Russell Wilson. If he's not
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: a corpse, they should get to eight and a half wins.
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: But if he's cooked, we're gonna know within three four weeks,
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: and then we'll move off their futures in you know,
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: we'll take a different route. But right now, for my
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: team heavily invested in this division, it's going to be
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: the Broncos. I just really believe in this team and
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: Sean Payn's leadership chat. So I might be catching a
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: big l here, but I do think my logic sound
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: and this is a very talented team that was just
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: missing a great head coach. I think they found on
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: here in Sean Payton.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Sean Payton is one of those guys who, over the
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: years in the NFL has developed such a badass baller
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: reputation amongst people who really know. And one of my
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: favorite quotes from this offseason, forget about what he said
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: about Nathaniel Hackett and just breaking the code and ripping
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: a fellow coach to shreds. It was a great story.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: You know, Seth Wickersham and Don Van Adisseeth, who we've
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: had on the show before, great investigative reporter for ESPN.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Both of them did this fantastic story about Dan Snyder
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: and ways in which he tried to manipulate the league
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: during the investigation, and how into misconduct with the Washington
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Commanders and the John Gruden leaked emails and all this
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: kind of stuff. And at one point Gruden got fined
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty grand for violating COVID protocols and
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: Sean Payton and he paid it, and Sean Payton called
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: him up and was like, you dumb fuck, why are
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: you paying that fine? I gotta find that I'm not
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: paying that fine. What is the matter with you? He
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: just seems like I'm doing what i want to do.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: I'm a football guy, I'm from the parcels Camp. All
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: I care about is football, and he's going to come
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: in and make that team so much better because he
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: is so single mindedly focused on improving the football team.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: And if you talk about how good that defense was
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: last year, if you talk about Judy being healthy, if
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: you talk about Sutton being healthy, if Javonte Williams can
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: come back from his knee injury and he's healthy, here's
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: what's interesting. So according to PFF, the broncos O line
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: is number eleven overall in the NFL. But one of
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: the reasons why they were downgraded, you're shaking your head.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: I want to get to that. One of the reasons
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: why they were downgraded last year is because Russell Wilson
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: was so bad in the pocket and took so many sacks,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: so his sort of percentage of sacks taken against pressure
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: rate was much much higher and made the broncos O
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: line look worse. So if they can do some of
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: the things you're talking about, where he gets out of
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: the pocket shortter roots puts him in a better position
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: to get rid of the ball, that oline all of
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: a sudden looks significantly better.
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I definitely think that that rating is based off
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: last year because I have them top ten, I have
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: him at number eight.
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: And it's not only.
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: Are they a great run blocking offensive line, they are
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: tough man Like. If you go back and watch a
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: lot like you just said, a lot of those sacks
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: that was on Russ, It's same thing with what I
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: feel like a lot of teams go through with these
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: running quarterbacks of they're always trying to make that extra play,
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: holding on to it too long. That's what I'm hoping
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: Champagne correct you of you make the first couple of reads, right,
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: Russell Wilson, then you get out of the pocket. No
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: more standing in there holding on to it forever. You
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: need to make a couple of reads and then get
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: out of the pocket, which I do think he struggled
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: with last year. So yeah, it's it's the classic. If
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: you were on the Broncos last year, how can you
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: not be on this year? It's just don't be better,
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: don't be mad that you were a little bit early
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: on it. This really is it to me? This is
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: like a two year window for here for Russell Wilson.
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: Of I think Champain' is gonna give him this year
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: next year and then after that if he doesn't get
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: any type of playoff success from him or anything.
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: It's over.
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: So eight and a half, Chad, this is truly a treat.
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: I got them at over ten wins, So I do
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: really do love this number for this Denver Bronco team.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: I want to go back for one second. I wrote
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: down a question that I forgot to ask you.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: You said.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: For this about the Raiders. Sorry, I'm bouncing back, but
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: I wrote it down and I forgot to ask it.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: You said that you really thought this team's issue was
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: Josh McDaniels.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: Did you see that in film?
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: Like?
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: What makes you say that?
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: A little bit?
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: I just didn't think he was spending Derek Carr in
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: the best position, like the he kind of left them
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: out there to drive, and they moved off.
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: They moved off of them after one year, where you know.
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: I think that's a pretty big deal that this this
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: guy who's been this franchise's face, you know, moved to
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: them from lost from Oakland to Las Vegas. And I
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: get it they were upset that he didn't produce when
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: they got him Devonte Adams and like all these weapons
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: stuff like that.
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: But if you go back and watch the offense. It
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: just wasn't really smart.
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: And you know, it's it's an interesting situation where they
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: have all the weapons there, right, they got Hunter Renfro,
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: they got Josh Jacobs, they should be good. But I
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: just don't think Jimmy g's the answer to that. So,
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: especially McDaniel's offense, I think most people would agree that, yes,
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: he was a great coach. What him and Tom Brady
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: do is incredible. Whoever is around Tom Brady apparently he
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: is a good coach. Right, It's like Byron Leftwich was
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: a great coach in Tampa when he had Tom Brady there.
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: So it is tough to really judge McDaniels. All I
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: can do is judge him off what he's done without
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: Tom Brady, and that to me has not been good.
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: So it's a big red flag where a lot of
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: his offensive scheme, he would build his own offense around
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: his own scheme. He wouldn't build around the player, which
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: in twenty twenty three, that just does not work. If
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: you see any smart team that builds an offense, they
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: build around their talent skill set, which we're about to
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: talk about the Chargers. That's a big difference to scumb
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: and seeing the Chargers. They're gonna build this offers around
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: Herbert's strength, which is going downfield, like that's got the
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: kid's biggest strength. So to me, that's what was lacking
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: last of the Raiders. They didn't really maximize Derek Carr strengths.
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: Now they have Jimmy Juw's strainths are what check downs.
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: I don't really know what Jimmy g straints are. So
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: that's just a train wreck of a team there.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: You know what's interesting to me, We're two teams through
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: the AFC West. Two bets that we love, three bests
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: that we love. The Broncos plus five point fifty, the
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: Broncos over eight and a half, the Raiders under six
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: and a half. I think what makes this so much
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: more interesting than when we did the NFC West is
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: in the NFC West, we basically liked one bet the
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Rams over six and a half, maybe the Rams plus
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: nine hundred. Everything else we're like, eh and kind of
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: milk toast, kind of middle of the road. We're strong
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: on the af West. You know what else is strong?
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Simon the Game Time app. You guys have heard us
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: talk about the Game Time app all off season long.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: They're the fastest growing ticketing app in the US. I
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: love game Time honestly, I use it all the time.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: And if you're going to get out to a proo
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: college game this week, or even a concert, game Time
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: has amazing last minute deals on tickets to all of these.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: I'm actually opening the game Time app right now from
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: my house. I can see get in price for New
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: York Yankees tonight sixteen dollars. But no matter where you live,
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: download the game Time app, get out and have some
• 28:37
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• 28:40
  Speaker 1: code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms
• 28:43
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• 28:47
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• 28:50
  Speaker 1: tickets lows priced.
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: Get run. Well.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Look you mentioned the Chargers. Justin Herbert just signed a
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: massive new contract. Until Joe Burrow signs his extension, he
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: will be the highest paid quarterback in the NFL. The
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Chargers have been an enigma right so much talent Eckler
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Alan Herbert Williams underperforming consistently. Either their coach is making
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: terrible decisions, high risk decisions on fourth downs that are
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: even beyond sort of the pressure testing of analytics. Last
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: year spectacular collapse in the playoffs, they fire Joe Lombardi,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: their offensive coordinator. Either the Chargers are too cheap to
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: get rid of the entire coaching staff, so they keep
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: the head coach because they don't want to pay two
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: of them, or they decide Brandon Staley is the guy,
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: just give him a new offensive coordinator.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: They bring in Kellen Moore.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: You say that the Chargers offense will improve because they
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: will take advantage of Justin Herbert's talents. Chargers right now
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: plus three hundred to win the Vision nine and a
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: half is the season win total minusive to the over
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: plus one hundred to the under.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: Are we buyers or sellers on the Chargers right now?
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: I can tell you this channel. I was in Vegas
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: two weeks ago. This is who the pros love. The
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: pros love the Chargers. They love their futures, they love
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: their win total, they love their division odds. I'll take
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: their over a win totals, but I'm not touching their
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: division odds.
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: I just can't do it. I get where they're coming from.
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: They think this is this is the kid that's going
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: to thrown my Homes totally get it that they should
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: be well improved on offense this year. You know this kid,
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: who knows if he had broken ribs last year, but
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: he definitely wasn't right. He definitely took about four to
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: five weeks there to get right. He just you could
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: tell every time he threw the ball he was wincing.
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'll never forget that Seahawks game. I'm pretty
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: sure they lost every throw he made. Every time he
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: stepped into the pocket. You could see his face just
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: wins anytime you throw the ball. And that's just that's
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: just brutal play with So to me, the kid, you know,
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: I knew, I knew he was smart, knew he had
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: a hell of a talent in his arm. Now you
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: know he's tough as shit. That's that's really you can't
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: ask for much more if you're a Chargers fan, like
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: you literally have hit the jackpot in Herbert. And you know,
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: I get why people were upset that I had him
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: over Hurts in my top five. It's like, what has
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: this kid ever done? Why would he be over Hurts?
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: Who's been to a super Bowl? He's that good, Like
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: you watch if you're a real football nerd. You love
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: watching this kid. He is incredible and it's so God given,
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: Like there are so many times where plays broke down
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: whatever it was, and he stepped up with mad throws
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: that are just I mean, in the history of the league,
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: there's maybe four guys can make these kind of throws.
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: He's just that that atypical quarterback of He's big, he's strong,
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: he's got a hell of an arm, and he's crazy smart.
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: So you know that, that to me is another team
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: where by changing their offensive coordinator, the shit huge upgrade
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: here with Herbert And you know all you can do
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: is hope Keenan Allen's gonna be healthy, Mike Williams will
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: be healthy, because that's that's gonna be a huge difference
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: to this team. Like that's the only way they can
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: to throw in this Chiefs team. So I don't think
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: the value there is in them Divisionally, I think they
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: should be closer to what the Broncos are, but they're not,
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: just because they didn't have a year from hell like
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: the Broncos did last year and they made the playoffs, Like, yes,
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: they completely choked and melted that game away to the Jaguars,
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: but they're in it like they were in that game.
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: You know, I don't want to say this is a big,
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: big make or break year for this Chargers team, but
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: it feels a little bit that way, right.
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: It's like you just say it, does it?
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Like you have the window with Justin Herbert. We've talked
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: about this so many times and we've seen it come
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: to fruition, like your window to get to the super Bowl.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: Now when the salary cap era of the NFL is
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: when you find a great quarterback, you play him early,
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: he succeeds, and in those first four to five years
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: you can build a team around him. Right, That's what
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: they need to do. And they're kind of like they
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: just put all the money into Justin Herbert. They need
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: to figure it out now because if not, how are
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: they going to build a team around him going forward?
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: You nailed it, I mean until Mahomes last year. We
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: had a run there of everyone doing on the rookie contracts.
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: Mahomes like the first real guy to be taken, Like
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: what was the thirty percent of his team salary cap
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: to win a Super Bowl?
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: That's estate to how good Mahomes.
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: Is, right exactly, So you know Herbert's draft class. It's early,
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: but holy shit, was at a great draft class. You
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: got Joe Burrow, Herbert too, and then then Hurts pretty
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: pretty incredible that you got two guys from your draft
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: class already played in Super Bowl and Herbert arguably is
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: the best one in this group. But you know we
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: have Joe rate to hire because Joe has done more right.
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: Joe is gone to the AFC Championship Game two out
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: of the three last year like years like this kid
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: is incredible. So you know, I wasn't shocked in all
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: the pros I talk to how they're all so high
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: in this Chargers team. I just my argument to them was,
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: I just think there's a better value on this Denver team,
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: and the Denver is gonna have an easier schedule just
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: because of where they finished last year. Where you know
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: this is gonna do be a test for this Discharger's
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: team this year.
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: I think you nailed at chat.
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: It's it really is do or die like your next year,
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: the money's gonna start kick geting for this Chargers team.
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: They're not gonna be able to keep around the Joey Bosas.
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: They're not gonna be able to keep around the Keenan
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: Allen's like, there's some of the people are gonna have
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: to start walking.
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: So that's a fair point by you.
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: It really is this year, next year for this team,
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: and then what you're gonna be spending all this money
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: on this quarterback? He is, I believe, the highest paid
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: quarterback right now, right Herbert, because he signed the new,
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: most recent deal. So yeah, Chad, I wasn't really thinking
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: like that, but you're you're dead on with that. It's
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: like once that money kicks in, that's gonna completely shift
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: your team. Not everyone has the ma Home type. So
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: which is funny now looking back, Mahomes is severely underpaid
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: at the quarterback position. It's only been like two years
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: since he signed that deal, so it is constantly moving
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: in the Sleek Show.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: Simon, I'm having a Rockham Sockham day right now. Just
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: feel like things are lining up. And the fact that
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: you just said you agree with me, and it sounded
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: like you genuinely believed it and were surprised by a
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: comment I made that registered and sunk in. Matt Mitchell,
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: I want to make sure we clip that, hold on
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: to that, hold it close to our hearts, like it's precious,
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: like a little tiny birdie that is going to be nurtured.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: And let's just run it again and again and again.
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: Let's how you know it's five in the morning.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, it's five in the morning. Simon can barely think.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: He's still a little foggy, still still wiping away the cobwebs. Yeah,
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: whatever else happened last night, what'll be interesting. So look,
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: the Chargers have I'm looking at Kerner's rankings middle of
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: the road schedule, fifteenth easiest. You didn't mention you mentioned
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Keenan Allen, You mentioned Mike Williams, you mentioned Bosa Rashaan Slater.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: That is a guy who could come up and cost
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: a crap load of money for this team. And you
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: need to be thinking about, like, how are we going
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: to maintain an offensive line that continue to protect Justin Herbert.
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they'll make it work. Like again, this is a
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: team that I think they know what they need a
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: draft now. They need to start just drafting six or
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: four wide receivers. You just need to get big body
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: guys who can go down the field and get these
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: deep balls from Herbert Austin Eckler. That's the biggest thing
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: to meet chat. It's like, you got what is he
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: top two, top three running back of football right now?
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: He is the perfect hybrid running back. He can catch
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: the ball, he can run the ball, fast as hell,
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: crazy smart. He will not be here for another year
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: or two. Like this really is it for him as well?
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: So yeah, like you just said, it's just it's all
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: there for Herbert. If he doesn't produce this year, I
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: have no doubt in my mind, well both of us.
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: I think we'll drop him out of our top five
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: next year. It's like we're kind of putting the pressure
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: on him. Well deserved, have all the talent you got,
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: the new OC, you're changing the offense to be catered
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: more towards your strengths. Really, no more excuses for Herbert.
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: He's just such a likable kid. It's hard to shit
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: on him. It's about that time, Chad, like this is
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: really it for the kid where we know how much
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: talent you have, or you're gonna be another Dan Marina,
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: which is all the talent in the world and never
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: producing that Super Bowl. Or you're gonna be like Mahomes
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: and you're gonna step up in these clutch moments, And
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: that's really what we're looking for here with from Herbert,
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: where he's gonna take that next step where he's gonna
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: be this guy where every year he gets his team
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: to ten to eleven wins, make the playoffs, and then
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: just peters out once he makes the playoffs. So yeah,
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: of all the quarterbacks now that I'm thinking about, he
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: might be number one or two most pressure head end
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: of the season.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: It's interesting you mentioned that Joe Burrow stuff. Joe Burrow's
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: gotten further. But also this is.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: The classic justin Herbert just focuses on football, doesn't make
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of noise, doesn't do it with tremendous style,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: and you've got like Joe Burrow who does it with
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: all style behind a terrible offensive line, and because he
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: makes it look good under pressure in moments when he
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: shouldn't even be under pressure, he's naturally elevated. And he'll
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: be the highest paid quarterback as soon as he negotiates
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: his deal. All right, Last team, Kana City Chiefs. Eleven
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: and a half is the season win total minus one
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: forty to the over. They're minus one sixty to win
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: the division. The under is plus one hundred. I think
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: one ten at Bet three sixty five, kind of rebuilding
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: their offensive line again for the second time in as
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: many years, getting some new tackles, but still really highly ranked,
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: probably a top five offensive line because they're the best
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: team in their division. Their schedule, according to Sean Kerner,
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: remarkably easy. Anything that interest us about the Kansas City
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Chiefs right now.
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: No, It's a team that I was crazy high on
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: last year, and I got really lucky that everything broke
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: right for this team. Like should they have been the
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: one seed? No, that easily should have been the Bills
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: or Cincinnati. Because of a technicality, they ended up being
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: the number one seed. That was great. Then they had
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: beaten the Jaguars. Mahomes gets hurt. Chad Henny comes in,
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: He drives the field ninety eight yards against the Jaguars
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: and scores a touchdown. They end up winning that game
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: by seven points. The following game, they got some weird
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: little BS call against the Bengals. You know, Mahomes definitely
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: got touched out of balance, but that was so soft
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: right called that the end of the game, moved out
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: an extra fifteen yards able to kick that field goal.
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: They won the AFC Championship game by three points. Same thing.
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: They won Super Bowl by three points. This was a
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: team that it's the classic Belichick and Brady scenario, right,
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: Belichick and Brady scenario. They didn't care how they won.
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: All they cared about was winning. It was the ultimate
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: chess team, right. They just they kept moving pieces where
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: you look up and the game's tied and there's two
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: minutes to go and Brady had the ball, and you go,
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: how the hell did that happen? It's just that's how
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: that team kept winning. That that Patriots dynasty run. It
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: feels like it's the same thing with this Mahomes dynasty.
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: Or it's like, you don't he can be sluggish, he
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: can be laying, like not playing that well. All of
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: a sudden Andy remix with second half adjustments and it's
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: just like a puletely different game. Like that's this team's strength.
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: They just you know, they have a top two, top
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: three all time head coach, and then they have one
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: of the most talented quarterbacks we've seen since Tom Brady.
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: I mean, that's that's who Mahomes is chasing right now.
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: Are you not paidon Manning? There's no one else, It's Brady.
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: That's the level we put Mahomes and so I'm gonna
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: take you to take an under on Tom Brady, which
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: I would never do, but I'm asking to take it
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: here in Mahomes. And it's tough Chad. He's never gone
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: under his win total. Kid has always outperformed the number.
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: He just we said it seven straight years. They've won
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: this division with Andy Reid like, they're just an incredibly
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: put together team. But regressions coming. They have to have
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: some regression. Last year, so many things went right for
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: this team. It was incredible how many things went right
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: for them. And you know, it might not be this year,
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: right Travis Kelsey's thirty four, It might not be this
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: year he falls off that cliff, But when he does,
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: that's really when that's gonna make a game changer to
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: this team, because that really is his safety blanket. If
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: you go through it last year, anytime he needed it,
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: third or fourth down, that's who was looking to like
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: him and Kelcey. My favorite stelf watching that whole QB
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: Show on Netflix was him and Kelsey were just so
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: on rhythm. They wouldn't talk, they would just give each
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: other a look, and that's how they would set up
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: these different routes on the field, so I know it
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: is tough to swell. Like, I totally geft people don't
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: make this bet. It's probably one of my smaller bets,
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: taken their underwin total. But just in this division, I
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: see the Chargers being better. I see the Broncos being better.
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: The Chiefs, Yeah, they might have an easy schedule on paper,
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: I think it's gonna be pretty tough actually, Like they're
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: playing at number one, the number one schedule, number one
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: seed schedule from last year.
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: That's how it is.
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: And you win your division, you play all the other
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: divisional winners, so that right there is gonna be tough.
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: And they have weird games like they play Broncos two
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: out of three.
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: Weeks in the middle of the season.
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: That to me is a big advantage for this Broncos team,
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: who hasn't beaten them in multiple years. So this Chiefs team,
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: I see regression. But I'm not betting them to miss
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: the playoffs. I still think they'll get in as a
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: wild card. It's just last year I was just so
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: high on them, like I was getting them at eleven
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: oh one for Super Bowl odds. If they did that again,
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: I would take it again. Like, if they moved that
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: number to that, I would take it. But and most
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: books it's gonna be plus seven hundred plus eight hundred.
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: There's just no real value there. So to me, we
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: haven't had a repeat winner chat in a long time.
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: What was a Brady's team last repeat winner we had,
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: which was is shit?
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: Man? That might have been four to five, like it
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: was that long ago. I remember. Yeah, No, seriously, that
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: were coming up with twenty years people.
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: That's how tough it is in football, where you just
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: need so much luck, so many little things to bounce
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: your way. And I'm not really getting that price in
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: here with this Chiefs number. Right the public is they
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: had left the Chiefs for dead last year. Now they've
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: kind of come all the way back around. I think
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: they're one of the most bet teams. Mahome is one
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: of the biggest bet players right now for MVP. It's
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: like him, Fields and her Hurts right now are the
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: biggest three bet guys for MVP.
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: So it makes sense where the love is for the Chiefs.
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: To me, the number is just too much.
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: And when I saw it open eleven and a half
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: twelve wins, I was like, Okay, that makes perfect sense
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: for this team. I got them at eleven wins exactly, so,
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: you know, just under their win toll. That's why I'm
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: not telling people go crazy betting on it feels like
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: just one of those I have to make these bets,
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: Like it's just how much luck can this team keep
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: having a year and year out of health and just
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: really good breaks like those one possession games they had
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: last year?
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: It was constantly They're constantly.
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: Winning these one possession games, and we saw what can happen,
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: like the right team prepared against them can really shut
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: down and stagnate this offense. So to me, you know,
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: love loved everything they did last year. I'm just going
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: to betting on regression this year for the Chiefs. So yeah,
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: best best bet for this Chiefs team. Not going to
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: do anything division. I'm not gonna do any Super Bowl futures.
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: I'm just gonna take the under eleven and a half.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: Reminder, The Favorites Podcast is proudly presented by bet three
• 44:40
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• 44:48
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• 45:03
  Speaker 2: Let me recap here.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: Our best bets for the AFC West will end up
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: being some of our best bets for the entire league.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: When it comes to futures. Loving the Raiders under six
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: and a half down from seven and a half. If
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: you're smart enough to jump on it, good for you.
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: If not, still take the under six and a half.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: We like the Chiefs plus five fifty to win the Division.
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: Chiefs evercos I mean, I'm.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: Sorry, the Broncos plus five point fifty to win the division.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: The Broncos over eight and a half wins. You can
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: still get that at minus one ten at bet three
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: six five. Little Taste, Little Taste on the Chiefs under
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half. This has been the favorite podcast
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five, part of the Action
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Network for Simon Hunter.
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: I am Chad Millman. Download us from.
• 45:59
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• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe and leave us five stars. Say whatever
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: you want. Feedback is a gift. We will continue the
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: division previews next Tuesday.
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: Until then, Love.
• 46:14
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