Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 17 with Scooch and Simon Hunter

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NFL Week 17 with Scooch and Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. Later on the show Professional Better,
0:18
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter is going to come on and we're gonna
0:21
Speaker 1: talk about our last week of picks for the west
0:25
Speaker 1: Gate Las Vegas one point five million dollars super Contest.
0:28
Speaker 1: This past week, we eaked out three and two. As
0:31
Speaker 1: you guys know, at this point, I have no idea
0:34
Speaker 1: how we are doing in the contest. I don't know
0:36
Speaker 1: if we are close to being in the money. I
0:39
Speaker 1: don't know if we are in the money. I don't
0:42
Speaker 1: know if we have no shot. All I know is
0:44
Speaker 1: Simon is gonna come on. He's gonna tell us how
0:46
Speaker 1: we're doing. He's gonna tell us what we need to
0:48
Speaker 1: get do that next level and win some cash money.
0:57
Speaker 1: Dani Revel cannot join us because he is getting his
1:01
Speaker 1: back waxed. As everybody knows, we've been doing the Fade
1:04
Speaker 1: Revel promotion with points Bet through the second half of
1:07
Speaker 1: the NFL season. Luckily, Darren has been losing. Every single week,
1:11
Speaker 1: he will pick a side points back customers get to
1:14
Speaker 1: pick the other side with boosted odds. This week, Darren
1:17
Speaker 1: picked the Buffalo Bills, a plus six and a half.
1:20
Speaker 1: If you picked the Patriots, you got boosted odds, meaning
1:23
Speaker 1: you had to pay uh, you got plus one oh
1:26
Speaker 1: five or one fifteen or something like that to bet
1:28
Speaker 1: on the Patriots at minus six and a half. Boy,
1:31
Speaker 1: that two point conversion came in handy for some folks.
1:34
Speaker 1: Did not help Darren Ravel, who very shortly will be
1:38
Speaker 1: getting his back waxed live on periscope UM, so he
1:43
Speaker 1: is unable to join us right now. It is the
1:44
Speaker 1: litany of things that Darren has done this year in
1:47
Speaker 1: the name of Darren getting some attention, which we love.
1:54
Speaker 1: But first joining me on the podcast from New Orleans,
1:58
Speaker 1: reps ending all the boy giving looks in Nevada and
2:01
Speaker 1: throughout the country. Mr Bob Scoo Gee Scooch, Happy Holiday's buddy,
2:23
Speaker 1: be holiday to you. Great to hear your voice as always.
2:29
Speaker 1: Later on the show, we will pick Scoot Drowlette, which
2:31
Speaker 1: we both one this past week. Um. Coming down to
2:37
Speaker 1: the wire man week seventeen, so much interesting stuff. As
2:40
Speaker 1: you know. I'm betting every game of the year project
2:43
Speaker 1: to fifty six to fifty six or bust. In the
2:45
Speaker 1: Action Network app download for free, follow me get all
2:48
Speaker 1: the best data in odds and information speaking out. Oh god, Scooch,
2:53
Speaker 1: you know I went twelve and two and two two
2:54
Speaker 1: weeks ago, last week, six and ten. This week it's
3:00
Speaker 1: not going well. Yeah, No, it gets tough coming down
3:06
Speaker 1: the stretch. That's crunch time. Oh my god, it's killing me.
3:10
Speaker 1: The hardest part is I am on vacation with my
3:13
Speaker 1: family in California, and so I'm recording this from a
3:17
Speaker 1: hotel right now. And um, we were out about all
3:22
Speaker 1: day yesterday. Uh, and we had a great day. We
3:25
Speaker 1: were taking a boat out in southern California. It was
3:28
Speaker 1: beautiful and having a good Wasn't that nice? It was
3:30
Speaker 1: actually kind of chilly, had the boat. But then afterwards
3:33
Speaker 1: he went to launch for at a bar sports bar.
3:35
Speaker 1: The kids are eating, We're watching the games. It's so
3:38
Speaker 1: hard to focus when all the games are so tense,
3:41
Speaker 1: and I've got like and everything goes wrong in the
3:43
Speaker 1: morning and I'm desperate for everything to go right in
3:45
Speaker 1: the afternoon. Hurts. I can't really see it. No, it
3:52
Speaker 1: kind of sounds like our morning. I mean, we were
3:57
Speaker 1: just getting annihilated in those early games. So fortunately we
4:01
Speaker 1: made it back up in some of the afternoon games
4:03
Speaker 1: that went our way, But it could have been another
4:05
Speaker 1: disastrous Sunday. And I'll tell you every week it's just
4:09
Speaker 1: we're just trying to avoid disaster. Yesterday was another example.
4:13
Speaker 1: Just one or two games could have just been arming
4:15
Speaker 1: again for us. Well, look, the Saints game was brutal
4:20
Speaker 1: because that had all the money coming in on the Saints,
4:22
Speaker 1: especially in the morning when the Derrick Henry news was
4:24
Speaker 1: announced and I took the Titans at plus three and
4:28
Speaker 1: a half. I waited all week to get the Titans
4:30
Speaker 1: at a better number. I still felt really good about
4:32
Speaker 1: the Titans without Derrick Henry um and they were there, man,
4:36
Speaker 1: they were there. Three minutes left. The Saints scored touchdown
4:39
Speaker 1: and then like that is just crushing. Look at the
4:41
Speaker 1: Redskins and the Giants game like that, get that line moved.
4:45
Speaker 1: The money was coming in, and the Giants I was
4:47
Speaker 1: on the Redskins Redskins losing overtime. That's two games that
4:51
Speaker 1: could have gone my way yep, and your way your
4:55
Speaker 1: way for that matter. Yeah. I mean the only favorite
4:58
Speaker 1: in the morning that that helped us out morning here
5:01
Speaker 1: on the West Coast was the Jets over the Steelers.
5:03
Speaker 1: But some of the other favorites you know, the Raven
5:06
Speaker 1: does a big favorite. Uh that that kind of crushed
5:09
Speaker 1: us a little bit. And uh, like the games that
5:12
Speaker 1: you just mentioned, the Saints was a big one. Uh.
5:15
Speaker 1: And then in the afternoon, I mean everything was on
5:17
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and that was just uh we were the
5:20
Speaker 1: Bears are just never in that game, So it could
5:22
Speaker 1: have been a couldn't have been rougher. But now we
5:25
Speaker 1: go into you know, probably the most volatile week of
5:28
Speaker 1: the year. I mean, seriously, every game seems to have
5:32
Speaker 1: something at stake. Like, let's start right off the bat
5:35
Speaker 1: with Tennessee visiting Houston. Playoff implications right now, why do
5:43
Speaker 1: I see you have Tennessee as a five and a
5:46
Speaker 1: half point favorite. Yeah, I mean, so this is a
5:50
Speaker 1: crazy game because Houston right now is currently at a
5:55
Speaker 1: four seed. Um, they can move up to a three
5:59
Speaker 1: seed a couple things happen. They need Kansas City to lose,
6:02
Speaker 1: they need to beat Tennessee. But they're just in an
6:04
Speaker 1: odd position where they're gonna be on the road in
6:06
Speaker 1: the first game regardless whether they end up playing Buffalo
6:09
Speaker 1: or they could end up playing Tennessee again in Tennessee
6:13
Speaker 1: if Tennessee wins this one. So I don't know. I
6:17
Speaker 1: think just Tennessee just need this game so much more
6:20
Speaker 1: than Houston. I mean, I think just Houston's playoff spot,
6:24
Speaker 1: the difference of the three seed in the four seed
6:26
Speaker 1: just isn't that great. Um, so we're just gonna end
6:30
Speaker 1: up seeing a ton of money on Tennessee here. So, um,
6:33
Speaker 1: we we've moved it up. Like the look aheadline, all
6:36
Speaker 1: things being equal, would have been probably right around Houston
6:39
Speaker 1: at one point favorite, but we just really feel like
6:42
Speaker 1: Tennessee is gonna uh come out needing this game a
6:46
Speaker 1: lot more, and we think the money is gonna be
6:49
Speaker 1: on Tennessee. So you think over the course of the week,
6:51
Speaker 1: but maybe Sunday, you still don't think public betters are
6:56
Speaker 1: going to come in on Houston as a massive underdog.
7:00
Speaker 1: I see this and think five and a half is
7:02
Speaker 1: just too many points, even with Houston not needing anything
7:05
Speaker 1: to play for, Like that is an insane amount of
7:08
Speaker 1: points for teams that just played each other in a
7:11
Speaker 1: very competitive game, for a team that is desperate to win,
7:15
Speaker 1: but also a team that still has something to play for,
7:17
Speaker 1: Like that's a huge People are going to see that
7:21
Speaker 1: and be shocked, shocked at that number. Yeah, like I said,
7:25
Speaker 1: you know, week seventeen, we'll see three or four point
7:28
Speaker 1: line movements like, uh, you know, that'll be normal. Uh.
7:33
Speaker 1: And a lot of times we'll see that swing happened
7:36
Speaker 1: right on game day as we get more information about
7:38
Speaker 1: who's playing and who's not. But uh, I think early
7:42
Speaker 1: on the money is going to be on Tennessee. So
7:44
Speaker 1: we're trying to mitigate that. And then you're you're right
7:47
Speaker 1: late in the week when you see this line creeping
7:49
Speaker 1: up to six, six and a half, then you're gonna
7:52
Speaker 1: have to take Houston and this one Alright, Cleveland is
7:55
Speaker 1: visiting Cincinnati, a game that means nothing to anybody you
8:00
Speaker 1: made the Uh. Seriously, it's like irrelevant. Cincinnati is getting
8:04
Speaker 1: the first pick. They can't even take anymore. Cleveland as
8:07
Speaker 1: a train wreck. They're just an awful team that has
8:09
Speaker 1: not lived up to any expectation. You and I both
8:12
Speaker 1: thought you should fade the Browns when this season win
8:14
Speaker 1: totals came out and they were at nine, which was insanity. Um,
8:18
Speaker 1: they're two and a half point favors against cinc against
8:20
Speaker 1: Cincinnati this week, that number is already Uh, it's already
8:24
Speaker 1: two and a half minus one twenty for you guys, Um,
8:29
Speaker 1: what's your what's your logic there? Yeah, well, we just
8:32
Speaker 1: figure nobody's gonna bet Cincinnati in any game no matter
8:35
Speaker 1: who they're playing. So even as bad as even though
8:38
Speaker 1: the game means nothing, as bad as Cleveland's been playing
8:42
Speaker 1: the last game of the year, they're still gonna bet
8:44
Speaker 1: the favorite in this one. Cleveland is a slight favorite.
8:46
Speaker 1: It will get driven up to three if most places
8:48
Speaker 1: aren't already at three. We're already seeing about six of
8:51
Speaker 1: the best coming in on Cleveland, even though it's one
8:54
Speaker 1: of the lowest bet games on the board. It'll be
8:58
Speaker 1: it'll be the corner TV game, sure, but the few
9:02
Speaker 1: bests that we are going to take on the game
9:04
Speaker 1: will be on Cleveland. Got the corner, last game of
9:08
Speaker 1: the year, Corner TV game. It's gonna be Cleveland and
9:12
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Battle of Ohio? How telling? Is that? So disappointing?
9:17
Speaker 1: And yet at the end of the day, the more
9:19
Speaker 1: things change, the more they remain the same. Cleveland and Cincinnati,
9:23
Speaker 1: the two dogs of the NFL. Unreal. Yeah, yeah, not
9:29
Speaker 1: much change there. Nothing that that the brown sequence yesterday
9:34
Speaker 1: they had like with within the span of a few minutes,
9:37
Speaker 1: you know they get a huge play from Odell Beckham Jr.
9:41
Speaker 1: He gets called for taunting. They have a penalty on
9:44
Speaker 1: a third and one, like they are. If I'm Freddy,
9:47
Speaker 1: if I'm the Brown's ownership, I gotta get Freddy Kitchens
9:51
Speaker 1: out of there. This team is all about discipline and
9:53
Speaker 1: he has provided none. Yeah, they I mean talking about
9:57
Speaker 1: underperforming with some of the talent they had the expectations.
10:01
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, they have to make a move. We gotta
10:05
Speaker 1: skip Chicago Minnesota recording this Monday morning. The Vikings play tonight,
10:08
Speaker 1: so we don't have a lineup for that game yet. Um,
10:12
Speaker 1: if you for nine, yeah, it's a touchdown game. The
10:18
Speaker 1: Bears stink? Wow do they stink? As a Bears fan, Um,
10:22
Speaker 1: I bet on the Patriots last night, but um, just
10:26
Speaker 1: so upsetting to see Patrick Patrick Mahomes beat up on
10:31
Speaker 1: the Bears like that. Just embarrassing. And there was one
10:37
Speaker 1: point where Chris Collinsworth was gamely trying to like make
10:40
Speaker 1: it interesting, and so he had like highlights of all
10:45
Speaker 1: the throws that Patrick Mahomes made and how Patrick metro
10:48
Speaker 1: Bisky make the same ones and it was just manufactured
10:53
Speaker 1: pab Yeah, I'm telling you know, like there's nothing you
10:58
Speaker 1: can do to make a game interesting. When you can
11:00
Speaker 1: it's over in the first quarter. Um. It was good
11:03
Speaker 1: for me because it allowed me to get together with
11:06
Speaker 1: a family holiday dinner that Uh. I was worried having
11:10
Speaker 1: to pay too much attention to the game. So uh,
11:13
Speaker 1: once that game was out of hand, I could just
11:16
Speaker 1: lock it up forget about it, move on, spend time
11:21
Speaker 1: with the family. I'm glad for you and your family. Uh.
11:24
Speaker 1: Indianapolis a big win the other day. I think it's
11:28
Speaker 1: surprised a lot of people. Um, they totally uh like
11:35
Speaker 1: in a game that I think a lot of people
11:37
Speaker 1: we're taking the other side. Um, they won handily and
11:41
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brosette played great. So now they go on the
11:44
Speaker 1: road to Jacksonville, a team that really just stinks, and
11:48
Speaker 1: they're three and a half point favorites. Yeah. So, UM,
11:52
Speaker 1: I mean just the logic here is on the road
11:54
Speaker 1: laying a little bit more than that of field goal,
11:56
Speaker 1: there's not going to be too much interest in the
11:58
Speaker 1: game that the teams are eliminated from. Uh. Indianapolis, you know,
12:02
Speaker 1: they really peaked really early in the season with with
12:05
Speaker 1: b Stte and then they had their their stretch where
12:08
Speaker 1: they kind of had their down the down part of
12:11
Speaker 1: the season and they try to make it back up
12:13
Speaker 1: at the end to get into the playoffs. Came up
12:15
Speaker 1: a little short. Jacksonville has just been on steady downward spiral.
12:20
Speaker 1: Like I said, for the last few weeks, the sharp
12:23
Speaker 1: guys have been betting against them. Uh. They came up
12:26
Speaker 1: big against the Raiders that won one game when h
12:30
Speaker 1: the sharp guys were on the Raiders and against Jacksonville.
12:33
Speaker 1: But still uh, not too much interest in this game
12:37
Speaker 1: right around. Uh. You know, the people that are going
12:40
Speaker 1: to bet on the game kind of similar to Cleveland
12:42
Speaker 1: are gonna want to back Indianapolis. Nobody's really gonna want
12:45
Speaker 1: to bet on Jacksonville. So I can see this line
12:48
Speaker 1: going up a little bit more by game time maybe
12:51
Speaker 1: for uh, but probably not too much higher than that.
12:55
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a miserable week for betty. I'm looking
12:57
Speaker 1: at these games thinking I can't. But if I have
13:00
Speaker 1: to bet all of these games still, you know, there's
13:04
Speaker 1: a lot of and like I said, you're gonna see
13:06
Speaker 1: a lot of weird line movement that's not going to
13:10
Speaker 1: make much sense. And uh, I think the good thing
13:12
Speaker 1: though in the last few years I think a lot
13:16
Speaker 1: of the teams coming into this game are just not
13:19
Speaker 1: worrying about kind of the rest of the playoff picture.
13:21
Speaker 1: They're just coming in looking saying, Hey, we just need
13:24
Speaker 1: to win this game. Uh. There's there's not too much
13:27
Speaker 1: of kind of playing strategy. Uh you know, And I
13:32
Speaker 1: think it's been more consistent for the sports books. Uh
13:35
Speaker 1: you know, I remember five ten years ago these weeks
13:38
Speaker 1: would be either huge huge wins, are huge huge losses
13:42
Speaker 1: just with a five six point line move in some instances,
13:45
Speaker 1: and we'd end up getting middled on these games. It
13:48
Speaker 1: seems to be a little bit more consistent. I'm so
13:51
Speaker 1: tired of betting, Scooch. I cannot do another reason. Oh
13:55
Speaker 1: my dad, it's just killing me. Atlanta is visiting Tampa.
14:00
Speaker 1: Atlanta had a nice win yesterday against said Jacksonville really
14:05
Speaker 1: overperformed against what I thought they would do. Um, I
14:08
Speaker 1: had Jacksonville plus seven and a half. Atlanta, you've got
14:10
Speaker 1: them at one point favorite. A lot of books have
14:12
Speaker 1: them at at had this game and pick against Tampa
14:16
Speaker 1: Bay and Jameis Winston. Boy, how are you Handicappa and
14:19
Speaker 1: Jameis Winston this week? So it's one of those teams
14:23
Speaker 1: that that that is on the rise, Like you know,
14:25
Speaker 1: you're looking at kind of kind of pivotal seasons that
14:28
Speaker 1: they're kind of on the cusp this year, and it's
14:30
Speaker 1: a team that you really want to pay attention to
14:32
Speaker 1: next year, this Tampa Bay team, and Tampa Bay has
14:35
Speaker 1: been one of those teams that the sharp guys have
14:37
Speaker 1: been on every week as well. Uh. This is a
14:40
Speaker 1: different matchup though, because it's hard to argue that any
14:43
Speaker 1: other team is hotter than Atlanta after starting the season
14:46
Speaker 1: one and seven, um and then winning you know five
14:50
Speaker 1: that the next seven games, so uh, and winning against
14:54
Speaker 1: some pretty good teams, you know, like the Saints and
14:56
Speaker 1: the forty niners. Uh, their offenses really looking good. You know,
15:01
Speaker 1: I think Quinn is trying to save his job here.
15:04
Speaker 1: So it's hard to go against Atlanta right now. But
15:07
Speaker 1: you know, the last game of the season, if there
15:10
Speaker 1: is time for a little bit of a lack of motives,
15:13
Speaker 1: this might be it. Uh. You know, neither one of
15:15
Speaker 1: them have too much, have much to play for other
15:18
Speaker 1: than just kind of looking until next year. Oh my gosh,
15:22
Speaker 1: I so want Jamis Winston to win this game. I
15:25
Speaker 1: so want Jamis Winston to be the Baker Mayfield narrative
15:29
Speaker 1: of and everyone gets super excited about what he can do,
15:33
Speaker 1: what this team can do, Bruce Arians and Byron left
15:36
Speaker 1: Fish as his mentors. How exciting it's going to be.
15:39
Speaker 1: I still want that to happen, so I can so
15:41
Speaker 1: fade that. You're already looking until next year. The true
15:46
Speaker 1: mark of a handicapper. I would tell you though, Atlanta
15:49
Speaker 1: could be an interesting season win total for because I
15:53
Speaker 1: still feel like people will probably not give them. You
15:57
Speaker 1: will not give them too much sort of, you will
16:01
Speaker 1: not make them too high because everyone will come in
16:04
Speaker 1: on the under. I think the value is going to
16:07
Speaker 1: be on Atlanta and the over season win totals early season,
16:12
Speaker 1: early season totally happening right now. I say take Atlanta
16:16
Speaker 1: in the over, even if it's that like seven and
16:20
Speaker 1: a half games. Yep, that's what I think. Probably not bad.
16:25
Speaker 1: I like I said, they're the hottest team right now
16:28
Speaker 1: out there, so I wouldn't bet against it. All right.
16:32
Speaker 1: Dallas is visiting Washington. Give me the just give me
16:37
Speaker 1: the just give me the Redskins. You have Dallas is
16:39
Speaker 1: an eleven point favorite. Give me the Redskins go now? Well,
16:43
Speaker 1: possibly no, Dwayne Haskins, so he's questionable. That just came
16:48
Speaker 1: over this morning. So Dallas we have an eleven point favorite. Obviously,
16:54
Speaker 1: with the Dallas loss yesterday to Silly, they need some
16:56
Speaker 1: stuff to happen. They need Philly to lose. They have
16:59
Speaker 1: to win this one. Um, I'll take the Redskins. Dallas
17:05
Speaker 1: shouldn't be eleven point favorites against anybody right now. So
17:09
Speaker 1: but I still think the public will probably come in
17:13
Speaker 1: on Dallas, so we'll be we'll be high on this one.
17:16
Speaker 1: But the values all over the Redskins. So what you're
17:18
Speaker 1: saying is wait, wait until the last possible second on
17:21
Speaker 1: this one. Oh yeah, yeah, you might get eleven and
17:23
Speaker 1: a half. I mean I definitely think. I mean, we
17:26
Speaker 1: have to see about this injury too. We'll see if
17:29
Speaker 1: Haskins is it's going to be playing or not. Uh.
17:32
Speaker 1: It seems weird to be saying that that he would
17:34
Speaker 1: make a difference, but uh, I mean, if you're gonna
17:37
Speaker 1: be betting on a team, you want to know who
17:38
Speaker 1: you who your players are. You know what. That might
17:42
Speaker 1: be a requirement for some not for me, my friend. Yeah,
17:48
Speaker 1: close your eyes and fire, that's what I do. Uh,
17:53
Speaker 1: here's a great anecdote that I read this morning Albert
17:56
Speaker 1: prior Monday Morning Quarterback SI dot com. Uh. Credit to
18:00
Speaker 1: Seth Wickersham from ESPN who tweeted this out. I saw
18:04
Speaker 1: it on Twitter. Drew Brees was working out for the
18:07
Speaker 1: Chargers way back when before the two thousand four draft,
18:11
Speaker 1: and um Marty Schottenheimer. Then the coach saw Breeze in
18:15
Speaker 1: the locker room and Drew Brees said to him, Hey,
18:17
Speaker 1: who are we going to draft? And Marty Schottenheimer said
18:20
Speaker 1: to him, listen, I need you to prepare yourself because
18:22
Speaker 1: it looks like we're gonna take a quarterback. And remember
18:24
Speaker 1: the Chargers had the first overall pick in that draft.
18:28
Speaker 1: And Schottenheimer sets this great scene in Albert's column where
18:34
Speaker 1: he says Breeze is really jovial and happy and sort
18:38
Speaker 1: of josh and around found in the weight room with him,
18:41
Speaker 1: and the second Schotenheimer says, prepare yourself, we're gonna draft
18:46
Speaker 1: a quarterback. Schtenheimer says, like all sort of the jovial
18:51
Speaker 1: this drained from Breeze's eyes, and he looks at him
18:54
Speaker 1: and he goes, that's gonna be a massive f and
18:58
Speaker 1: mistake for this organ muzation massive, and then he walked
19:04
Speaker 1: out of the room and was just saying massive mistake.
19:08
Speaker 1: Turns out he was right, because he's going on to
19:10
Speaker 1: be He's going on to be one of the best
19:12
Speaker 1: quarterbacks who have ever played. Statistically a winner every single weekend.
19:17
Speaker 1: What he did this past weekend, he is just like
19:20
Speaker 1: he's just not interested in keeping games close and the
19:23
Speaker 1: point spread. Michael Thomas has broken the record for most
19:25
Speaker 1: receptions in the season with a hut with a game
19:29
Speaker 1: to go, and they're playing a Carolina team that is
19:33
Speaker 1: a train wreck. I mean, you gotta take Carolina in
19:35
Speaker 1: this game, even though we don't know who's going to
19:37
Speaker 1: be playing quarterback, just because that's the percentages. But I
19:40
Speaker 1: don't want to touch this game. Yeah, yeah, we we
19:44
Speaker 1: We opened twelve and a half and we're going to
19:48
Speaker 1: go to thirteen here here here in a minute. But
19:51
Speaker 1: this is a tough one because so New Orleans can
19:55
Speaker 1: either be the twoth seed or the three seeds. So
20:00
Speaker 1: they're gonna come out, like you said, They're gonna come
20:02
Speaker 1: out just just firing. And this is this is a
20:05
Speaker 1: dangerous team. We've known it all year. Uh we just
20:09
Speaker 1: we we don't expect anyone to be betting on Carolina.
20:12
Speaker 1: So we're gonna have to make it as high as
20:14
Speaker 1: we can and maybe draw a little professional money at thirteen.
20:18
Speaker 1: But I'm afraid we may have to go up even
20:21
Speaker 1: higher just to get especially with the way that New
20:23
Speaker 1: Orleans came back from a four team nothing deficit and
20:26
Speaker 1: end up winning the game by ten. Uh. You know
20:29
Speaker 1: the team that can strike quick and fast like this
20:32
Speaker 1: and put up points on Uh, we're gonna be We're
20:36
Speaker 1: gonna be getting buried in New Orleans money. Yeah, it's
20:39
Speaker 1: really upsetting. As so when who had Tennessee plus three
20:41
Speaker 1: and a half Philadelphia? They eke out the wind. You
20:45
Speaker 1: don't laugh at me, they eke out the win. Uh
20:48
Speaker 1: in Philly against this this Cowboys team, It's such a shame,
20:52
Speaker 1: so much talent. If I'm Jerry Jones, I agree, I'm like,
20:55
Speaker 1: I gotta I put together a great freaking team and
20:57
Speaker 1: my coach can't do anything with it. Five point favorites
20:59
Speaker 1: against Giants and Daniel Jones give me the Giants all
21:05
Speaker 1: freaking day. Yeah, we're expecting a lot of silly money
21:12
Speaker 1: in this one. So uh, we we opened four and
21:15
Speaker 1: a half, we're up to five right now getting about
21:19
Speaker 1: six of the money. As I'm silly, I agree with you.
21:23
Speaker 1: It's kind of be a you know, a week where
21:26
Speaker 1: we need a lot of these uh these home dogs, Uh,
21:29
Speaker 1: this is this is one of them. I kind of
21:31
Speaker 1: like the Giants in this spot. Regardless of who's playing.
21:36
Speaker 1: This is that kind of rivalry that even when you
21:38
Speaker 1: have nothing to play for, it's it's kind of your
21:40
Speaker 1: super Bowl. So I think they love nothing more than
21:43
Speaker 1: to kind of spoil Phillies chances and uh uh you know,
21:48
Speaker 1: come up and plus getting five points, give me the
21:51
Speaker 1: five points. But like I said, six of the money's
21:54
Speaker 1: I'm silly, yeah, and it's gonna go up. I'm gonna wait.
21:56
Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait. In bet the Giants like this is
21:58
Speaker 1: Taylor made for the Eagles to tank and choke, for
22:02
Speaker 1: the Giants to ruin their season, for the Cowboys to
22:06
Speaker 1: get in undeservedly. Oh my god, it's going to be
22:09
Speaker 1: just fantastic. These next two games, Pittsburgh at Baltimore and
22:13
Speaker 1: the Jets at Buffalo really interesting because Baltimore and Buffalo
22:18
Speaker 1: really can't do anything. They can't improve their positions. Um,
22:22
Speaker 1: they are both one and a half point favorites against
22:25
Speaker 1: teams that they are significantly better than division rivals. Uh,
22:29
Speaker 1: let's take these intendem. How do you how are you
22:31
Speaker 1: handicapping these games? And what do you expect to happen. Well,
22:35
Speaker 1: we're approaching it under the notion of Baltimore is going
22:39
Speaker 1: to be resting their players. They're not gonna want anyone
22:41
Speaker 1: getting injured. They've already locked home field locked up home
22:44
Speaker 1: field throughout the playoffs, So this number is just assuming
22:49
Speaker 1: not uh, with their their top team in so if
22:52
Speaker 1: it does come out for some reason that they're playing
22:56
Speaker 1: all their guys, I mean this line really should be seven,
22:59
Speaker 1: seven and a half and then we would expect to
23:02
Speaker 1: get both in Baltimore money. But in this instant's taking,
23:08
Speaker 1: the absolutely needs the game and the tendency lost just
23:11
Speaker 1: to get in, you know with the number six seed.
23:14
Speaker 1: So uh, we just feel that Pittsburgh's gonna really uh
23:19
Speaker 1: come in needing this game a lot more. And the
23:22
Speaker 1: money though, I think the money will be divided evenly
23:25
Speaker 1: because most people know Baltimore and Week seventeen. It's it's
23:28
Speaker 1: kind of like you know, New England for for many years, uh,
23:32
Speaker 1: you know, resting all their players in weeks seventeen, So
23:35
Speaker 1: probably won't get as much action as you would normally
23:38
Speaker 1: get on this type of game. But um, still a
23:41
Speaker 1: little heavier on on Pittsburgh right now. I think of
23:46
Speaker 1: the Bets are coming in on Pittsburgh. What about Jets
23:49
Speaker 1: Buffalo and and and Jets Buffalo a little bit different
23:53
Speaker 1: because now the Jets are showing signs of life here
23:56
Speaker 1: and and with Buffalo, they're sitting at the number five
24:00
Speaker 1: i've seen, and they can't they can't improve their position.
24:03
Speaker 1: They're in the same boat where they're gonna be resting
24:05
Speaker 1: their players to Uh, we're getting a lot more Jets
24:08
Speaker 1: money in this one. I would I would expect this
24:10
Speaker 1: one to move a little bit more in the away
24:14
Speaker 1: teams direction towards the Jets, uh than in the Pittsburgh game.
24:19
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jets close. Uh.
24:22
Speaker 1: You know a little bit of a favorite here. Yeah,
24:25
Speaker 1: that feels like the better side. Pittsburgh Baltimore is going
24:27
Speaker 1: to be really interesting. Um m hmm. I don't have
24:34
Speaker 1: an opinion on these games yet. It's tough. I mean,
24:38
Speaker 1: I know it's early in the week too, and they've
24:40
Speaker 1: got to digest a little bit, but uh, it's it's
24:44
Speaker 1: it's tough, but I think that's like I said, the
24:47
Speaker 1: Jets are actually impressing a lot of the betters, and
24:50
Speaker 1: we're starting to see a little bit more action on
24:52
Speaker 1: the Jets each week. Uh, Pittsburgh was kind of getting
24:55
Speaker 1: in there with some sneaky winds under the radar, but
24:58
Speaker 1: they weren't drawing as much action is the betting public
25:01
Speaker 1: normally does on on Pittsburgh. And and they're just afraid
25:05
Speaker 1: of Baltimore even with they're they're not there their first
25:08
Speaker 1: team resting there, you know, they're don't more really bet
25:12
Speaker 1: against Baltimore. So like that kid, I think we'll get
25:15
Speaker 1: a lot more action on the Buffalo game. It's also
25:17
Speaker 1: weird with the Jets, like they've been so predictable about
25:21
Speaker 1: when they are going to lay an egg and when
25:24
Speaker 1: they are the right side. It's actually been phenomenal. Like
25:27
Speaker 1: they were so the right side this weekend. They were
25:30
Speaker 1: so the right side in that Cowboys team. It's like
25:33
Speaker 1: you can just tell when they're going to be the
25:35
Speaker 1: team you want and when they are absolutely percent the
25:37
Speaker 1: team you don't want. I feel like they're a team
25:41
Speaker 1: you want this weekend, they got they actually have just
25:43
Speaker 1: more to play for against the Bills. That's what I think, absolutely, Yeah,
25:48
Speaker 1: And then it's funny how some teams are like that,
25:50
Speaker 1: Like some teams are you're you're on the right side
25:52
Speaker 1: of them every week, and then other teams you just
25:54
Speaker 1: can't get a read on. No. Uh, speaking of getting
25:58
Speaker 1: a read, why are the Patriots sixteen points? It's against
26:00
Speaker 1: Miami when the Patriots, I mean, I guess they need
26:03
Speaker 1: to win in order to maintain that uh second seed
26:09
Speaker 1: over the Chiefs. I guess that's the only reason why
26:11
Speaker 1: they really have to play for something, right, It's the
26:14
Speaker 1: difference of giving the buy and and so I mean
26:17
Speaker 1: they need the Chief's loss. So I mean they need
26:20
Speaker 1: they need to win and the Chiefs to lose to
26:22
Speaker 1: get the number two seed. Um. Other than that, it's
26:25
Speaker 1: it's a pretty high number that I think. You know,
26:28
Speaker 1: we're trying to anticipate kind of a little bit where
26:32
Speaker 1: the money is going to come in. But I think
26:35
Speaker 1: we're a little too high because we're actually getting the
26:38
Speaker 1: majority of the money right now on Miami, which is
26:41
Speaker 1: uh pretty telling. I know it's early in the week, um,
26:44
Speaker 1: but the Miami has been a team that You've been
26:48
Speaker 1: able to cast a lot of bets on taking big points,
26:51
Speaker 1: especially in the second half of the season after that
26:54
Speaker 1: horrendous start. So getting sixteen and typically they usually play
26:58
Speaker 1: New England, you know they they usually played New England
27:01
Speaker 1: the last weekend of the year the last few years,
27:03
Speaker 1: and uh, they usually give him a pretty good game.
27:05
Speaker 1: So getting sixteen points, I think all the values on
27:08
Speaker 1: Miami here, I agree, Uh, green Bay Detroit. You've got
27:13
Speaker 1: green Bay already posted as a nine and a half
27:15
Speaker 1: point favorite on the road at Detroit last game of
27:18
Speaker 1: the year. We don't spent too much time on it
27:21
Speaker 1: because we still got green Bay playing tonight. But how
27:25
Speaker 1: do you get that number? Yeah, this so this is
27:29
Speaker 1: based obviously not on on tonight's game, and this can
27:32
Speaker 1: change drastically with the outcome. So this is just kind
27:36
Speaker 1: of the look aheadline. See if we can get a
27:39
Speaker 1: gauge on, um, you know where the money is going
27:42
Speaker 1: to be coming in. And I think even people right
27:45
Speaker 1: now that there's more bets on Detroit, which is before
27:49
Speaker 1: looking at tonight's Green Bay Minnesota games. So that's pretty
27:52
Speaker 1: telling to us. So this number is a little too high,
27:55
Speaker 1: and I think what we'll see coming out tomorrow is
27:59
Speaker 1: probably more than neighborhood of seven a half to eight
28:02
Speaker 1: and a half l A Chargers visiting Kansas City. Boy,
28:07
Speaker 1: you can't watch Patrick Mahomes right now and ever think
28:12
Speaker 1: there's a number that's high enough. Seven and a half
28:15
Speaker 1: doesn't matter to sign me up. Yeah, So they've clinched
28:20
Speaker 1: the f C West. Um, it's still undecided. They can
28:23
Speaker 1: end up being a two seed, a three seed, or
28:25
Speaker 1: four seed, so a lot of different outcomes. U. I mean,
28:29
Speaker 1: they're they're gonna come out. They're not gonna be resting
28:31
Speaker 1: any players, that's for sure. And uh, you know, they're
28:35
Speaker 1: just so good when they're on their on their game,
28:38
Speaker 1: it just just doesn't look like anyone can beat them.
28:40
Speaker 1: If you look at the Ravens and the Chiefs right
28:42
Speaker 1: now and four, you're almost just want to see that.
28:45
Speaker 1: Uh those two teams play. Um, you almost wonder how
28:49
Speaker 1: Kansas City has those four losses as good as Mahomes looks. Um, So, no,
28:56
Speaker 1: seven and a half, I'm sure we're gonna get a
28:59
Speaker 1: ton of Kansas City the money. This line is probably
29:01
Speaker 1: a little short. We'll probably end up closing this one
29:03
Speaker 1: eight and a half, maybe even nine. Yeah, that's another one.
29:07
Speaker 1: I want to get on it right away. I wish
29:09
Speaker 1: I had a pen on me. I'd make some notes
29:11
Speaker 1: as we speak. Um, Producional handicappers don't take vacations in California.
29:16
Speaker 1: Just telling you. Listen, you're not wrong. Professional handicappers live
29:25
Speaker 1: and breathe this stuff. I've gotta to change my lifestyle. Um,
29:28
Speaker 1: this is the last vacation I'm taking with my kids.
29:29
Speaker 1: They're in the room next door and forget about it.
29:31
Speaker 1: Like I'm gonna go kiss them goodbye and be like
29:33
Speaker 1: it's been good knowing you. I'm too good at handicapping.
29:36
Speaker 1: I've got to dedicate my life. Uh, parenting. Parenting just
29:44
Speaker 1: isn't for me anymore. Um, Arizona at the Rams. I'm
29:49
Speaker 1: taking Arizona here, Like the Rams got nothing. Arizona's like
29:53
Speaker 1: figuring things out and there's enthusiasm there right Like the
29:57
Speaker 1: Rams they have nothing to play for. Yeah, Rams are
30:01
Speaker 1: clearly the better team, but just disappointing and underperforming, whereas
30:07
Speaker 1: Arizona is kind of like in that Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30:10
Speaker 1: kind of uh category where they're figuring things out. Next
30:14
Speaker 1: year is going to be their kind of breakout year.
30:17
Speaker 1: A lot of people expected a lot more from Arizona
30:19
Speaker 1: even this year, but it was just too soon. But
30:22
Speaker 1: showing a lot of great signs and talking about covering
30:25
Speaker 1: spreads like like Miami, I don't know that it's covered
30:29
Speaker 1: more more spreads than than Arizona. That they're just a
30:32
Speaker 1: great team against the spread. So here they are getting seven. Uh,
30:36
Speaker 1: just a couple of things though. We did like Arizona
30:39
Speaker 1: against the Seattle yesterday only because Seattle um is playing
30:44
Speaker 1: the forty Niners next week, and we knew that that's
30:47
Speaker 1: the game that they're really going to be focusing on.
30:49
Speaker 1: So not that we expect them to lose outright, but
30:52
Speaker 1: laying nine and a half were talked about it on
30:54
Speaker 1: the show last week. It just seemed like an awful
30:57
Speaker 1: lot to be laying when they're kind of looking ahead
30:59
Speaker 1: to that d Niners game. And then the Rams kind
31:03
Speaker 1: of the same boat. Two weeks ago. You remember they
31:06
Speaker 1: kind of they lay an egg against the Cowboys, and
31:09
Speaker 1: we said, don't read too much from that game because
31:11
Speaker 1: they really wanted to play well against the Niners this week,
31:14
Speaker 1: which they which they did. They came up three points
31:17
Speaker 1: short short of beating them, but they were getting six
31:19
Speaker 1: and a half points. So a lot of times you
31:22
Speaker 1: have to kind of look at those key situations and
31:25
Speaker 1: who they're playing the following week. But this is kind
31:28
Speaker 1: of an interesting matchup in the sense that the Rams
31:31
Speaker 1: really don't they don't have as much to look forward
31:35
Speaker 1: to next year as Arizona does, so motivation may not
31:39
Speaker 1: be there. Uh well, that's the thing, Like they don't
31:44
Speaker 1: play anyone next week. Do you think this number is
31:46
Speaker 1: going to go up or down? I think it goes down.
31:50
Speaker 1: I think I think the Sharp guys will see what
31:53
Speaker 1: you just mentioned with with Arizona and getting seven points
31:57
Speaker 1: in kind of a meaningless game where both teams are
31:59
Speaker 1: kind kind of you know, in a meeting less game.
32:02
Speaker 1: Give me the points. Yeah, I agree, speaking of meetingless games.
32:07
Speaker 1: Opposite day, San Francisco three point favorite interesting over Seattle
32:13
Speaker 1: right now, that is interesting. So we opened the game
32:18
Speaker 1: one and a half got driven up to three. But
32:23
Speaker 1: I don't mind need in Seattle and this one, and
32:25
Speaker 1: I think we wanted to kind of kind of put
32:27
Speaker 1: ourselves in a position where we need the home team here.
32:31
Speaker 1: Like I said, I'm throwing out yesterday's game with with
32:35
Speaker 1: Arizona Seattle was really I think preparing for this game,
32:39
Speaker 1: because regardless of what happened yesterday, the division just rests
32:42
Speaker 1: on next week's game. Anyhow, I mean they're playing for um,
32:48
Speaker 1: you know that they're playing for the division, and I
32:51
Speaker 1: mean this is this is the game. So Seattle could
32:55
Speaker 1: be anywhere from a number one seed to a number
32:58
Speaker 1: five scene depending on how everything is out. So all
33:00
Speaker 1: they do is have to win the game. Um, So
33:04
Speaker 1: I don't mind needing them as as I'm speaking, we're
33:07
Speaker 1: actually getting money on Seattle. So we just went to
33:09
Speaker 1: three minus. I'm sorry, we got money on San Francisco.
33:12
Speaker 1: We just went to three minus thirty. Now, so the
33:15
Speaker 1: moneys pouring in on the forts. Um. But you look
33:19
Speaker 1: at the last four games forty Niners played. Uh they're
33:24
Speaker 1: the defense that was so highly touted. A lot of
33:27
Speaker 1: teams putting up thirty points on this on this defense.
33:31
Speaker 1: Uh so, uh, I don't think they're I mean, given
33:34
Speaker 1: they've got one of the toughest schedules to play, so
33:37
Speaker 1: I'll give them that, but they look a little vulnerable. So,
33:40
Speaker 1: like I said, don't mind me the Seattle here. Yeah,
33:43
Speaker 1: Like if I'm a better at this point, I kind
33:47
Speaker 1: of just want to wait on Seattle to get to
33:48
Speaker 1: three and a half and then then bed that right,
33:52
Speaker 1: I mean all four, I think three out of the the
33:55
Speaker 1: last four San Francisco games came right down to the
33:57
Speaker 1: last play, either in their favor or again it is
34:00
Speaker 1: their favorite. You know, they beat the Saints on the
34:03
Speaker 1: last play, but then they uh, you know, they they
34:07
Speaker 1: beat the Rams on the last play three three points
34:11
Speaker 1: just decided. I think the last three or four games
34:13
Speaker 1: with them. Yeah, all right, last game of the season. Well,
34:20
Speaker 1: you know, on the board at least Oklahoma Oklahoma, Oakland, Oklahoma, Oakland, Oklahoma,
34:28
Speaker 1: Denver me to visiting Denver. Drew Lock looks really really good.
34:33
Speaker 1: Like I watched a lot of that Lin's game yesterday
34:35
Speaker 1: that happened to be on in the bar that I
34:37
Speaker 1: was watching, and like they were down what twenty seventeen
34:42
Speaker 1: or seventeen thirteen, and he had two really good drives
34:46
Speaker 1: and that defense shut the lines down and they end
34:49
Speaker 1: up winning that game going away handily. Is a favorite.
34:52
Speaker 1: Three and a half points at home. I like Denver here. Yeah, yeah,
34:58
Speaker 1: so we tried to be we we hung three, and
35:01
Speaker 1: uh the money drove it up to three and a half.
35:03
Speaker 1: But you know, the public is actually on Oakland and
35:06
Speaker 1: this one we're getting about of the bets coming in
35:09
Speaker 1: on Oakland, and they still got an outside shot of
35:12
Speaker 1: getting into the playoffs. They need a bunch of things
35:15
Speaker 1: to happen. They need Baltimore to win, Houston to win. Uh.
35:19
Speaker 1: They could possibly earn the number six seed, but they've
35:23
Speaker 1: got a toll task ahead of them just beating Denver
35:25
Speaker 1: in this one. Um they Oakland impressed me a little
35:29
Speaker 1: bit last week. I didn't expect him to be in
35:31
Speaker 1: the game, but um, they they pulled that out. So
35:34
Speaker 1: they're kind of hanging in there. Uh, and the public
35:38
Speaker 1: feels like they have a shot to Like I said,
35:42
Speaker 1: of the bets coming in on them, but I don't
35:44
Speaker 1: think the line will move too much in this one though.
35:46
Speaker 1: I think three and a half it will probably be
35:48
Speaker 1: pretty solid. I agree. Everyone can listen to us break
35:53
Speaker 1: down these games on Sunday at New and Eastern Radio
35:57
Speaker 1: dot com and the Radio dot com app. And before
36:00
Speaker 1: we get to that, let's do some scooch. Of course,
36:05
Speaker 1: before we get to that, because that shows not happening
36:06
Speaker 1: for six days. Uh. In the meantime, let's get to
36:10
Speaker 1: some scooch roulette. We both won last week I had Miami,
36:20
Speaker 1: you had Kansas City. Um, because you're older, I'm gonna
36:25
Speaker 1: let you go first. For the final week of the season,
36:28
Speaker 1: I am tossed between your Miami team with sixteen points
36:33
Speaker 1: and Seattle. I like. I like both of them, but
36:36
Speaker 1: I think there's probably more value in Miami. So if
36:38
Speaker 1: I had to, I'll take sixteen points with Miami. All Right,
36:44
Speaker 1: that's tricky for me because I really like that one too. Um,
36:49
Speaker 1: I guess the other one I'm gonna take. Got Houston.
36:58
Speaker 1: Give me the Houston Texans at what do you have,
37:01
Speaker 1: Matt right now? Five and a half? All right, give
37:04
Speaker 1: me the Houston Texas at five and a half? Wow? Yeah, alright, Scooch.
37:11
Speaker 1: Al right, Scooch. Last weekend of the year, and we'll
37:15
Speaker 1: be on the radio radio dot com app breaking down
37:18
Speaker 1: all the games this coming Sunday, and then we'll be
37:21
Speaker 1: back once the playoffs begin with more surprises, more exciting stuff. Scooch.
37:26
Speaker 1: It's been another great year. Thanks for coming on your podcast, buddy,
37:29
Speaker 1: Thank you. Happy holiday to everybody out there. All right,
37:33
Speaker 1: welcome back to the podcast. As promised. Professional Better from
37:37
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Simon Hunter, who has been guiding Darren and
37:41
Speaker 1: I all through the season for the Westgate Las Vegas
37:44
Speaker 1: Super Contest win one point five million dollars. If we
37:47
Speaker 1: don't win, I can't blame Simon. I can only credit
37:50
Speaker 1: him for getting us probably much closer than Darren and
37:52
Speaker 1: I would have been on our own. Darren cannot join
37:56
Speaker 1: because he is in the process of getting his back
37:58
Speaker 1: waxed for losing his Bill's Patriots, Fade Revel points, bet promotion,
38:05
Speaker 1: bet um. Follow all of those through General Revel's Twitter
38:08
Speaker 1: handle Fade Revel hashtag Fade Revel. He'll be back at
38:12
Speaker 1: it again this week for Week seventeen, and then throughout
38:15
Speaker 1: the playoffs. He has sent us his picks. Let's welcome
38:19
Speaker 1: in and Simon Hunter and now a word from a
38:26
Speaker 1: wise guy with Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Hey chat, what's
38:34
Speaker 1: going on? Buddy? Happy holidays to you, buddy, Happy holidays,
38:38
Speaker 1: my man. We made it. We made it, man, We
38:42
Speaker 1: we finished. We have. We went three and two this weekend.
38:47
Speaker 1: Uh so I'm feeling pretty good. I would venture to
38:50
Speaker 1: say this was the first season in which I did
38:52
Speaker 1: not incessantly check the standings, just because I felt like
38:56
Speaker 1: things were going pretty well and I didn't want to
38:58
Speaker 1: jinx anything. Then we had a crap tastic week last
39:01
Speaker 1: week and one and four last week, so we needed
39:02
Speaker 1: to rebound. Simon, it's the last weekend of the year.
39:06
Speaker 1: Tell me where we stand, what our chances are to
39:09
Speaker 1: win anything, and what we need in order to improve
39:12
Speaker 1: those chances. So, yeah, we got UM a little lucky
39:17
Speaker 1: here in the sense that a lot of these guys,
39:20
Speaker 1: these top performers, they've just been they've been crashing and
39:24
Speaker 1: burning here at the end here, a lot of these
39:25
Speaker 1: guys are going two, two on one or one and
39:28
Speaker 1: four for these last three or four weeks. So we
39:31
Speaker 1: actually got really lucky that a couple of these weeks
39:33
Speaker 1: that we had down weeks, so did everyone else. So
39:36
Speaker 1: we're actually right on the edge where if if we
39:39
Speaker 1: just went three and two again this week and these
39:41
Speaker 1: people keep and these guys, these other guys were right
39:44
Speaker 1: behind all go to tu and one or below, we'll
39:47
Speaker 1: be in the one will be in the top one dred.
39:48
Speaker 1: Because it's we're all smushed in right now. There's I
39:51
Speaker 1: think there was about three thousand, eight hundred entries into
39:53
Speaker 1: this UM and there's about two hundred of us, all
39:57
Speaker 1: separated by left in the game. So it's a game
39:59
Speaker 1: game and half yeah, fighting for the last money spots. Um.
40:05
Speaker 1: So it's gonna be kind of funny to see here
40:07
Speaker 1: because in week seventeen, it's like we're gonna talk about
40:10
Speaker 1: it's uh a lot of we don't know what teams
40:12
Speaker 1: are gonna be resting players yet, and things like well,
40:15
Speaker 1: no better as the week goes along. But there's a
40:17
Speaker 1: lot of easy lines this week. So it's one of
40:19
Speaker 1: those weeks where if you make just one little mistake
40:22
Speaker 1: that could be the difference between being in the money
40:24
Speaker 1: not being in it. So we're actually right there on
40:26
Speaker 1: the edge alright. So hey, this is so exciting. I've
40:29
Speaker 1: never been this close ever in the Super Contest, So
40:33
Speaker 1: kudos to you Simon Hunter for getting us as close
40:38
Speaker 1: as we are right now. That is truly, like truly stunning.
40:43
Speaker 1: I am shocked, absolutely shocked, um, and I'm so glad
40:47
Speaker 1: I didn't check all year because this is like such
40:49
Speaker 1: a pleasant surprise. I cannot tell you. Oh, it's it's
40:54
Speaker 1: one of those where um actually made a Twitter account
40:57
Speaker 1: just the track all of our picks all year. Um.
40:59
Speaker 1: I mean, people gonna go on and look at it.
41:01
Speaker 1: I didn't really I didn't put it out there just
41:03
Speaker 1: because honestly, I didn't have faithis I was just like,
41:06
Speaker 1: there's no way we're gonna finish the year with a
41:07
Speaker 1: winning record, and uh, it actually worked out. So if
41:11
Speaker 1: people want to go look at all of our picks
41:12
Speaker 1: throughout the whole year, it's at Simon Hunt the the
41:15
Speaker 1: Action Network, So Simon Hunt there the Action Networks. So
41:19
Speaker 1: it's it's kind of funny that we're I think we're
41:21
Speaker 1: at forty three or um forty four wins and the
41:25
Speaker 1: leader of the whole thing it's fifty two. So it's
41:27
Speaker 1: like sticking in my mind now that we're so close
41:29
Speaker 1: and that it's like, wow, if we just had two
41:31
Speaker 1: good weeks and two bad weeks, we could have actually
41:34
Speaker 1: been fighting for the top prize of this whole thing.
41:36
Speaker 1: It's pretty Uh, it's pretty exciting. Simon. Why would you
41:41
Speaker 1: wait seventeen weeks to tell everybody about the Twitter account
41:46
Speaker 1: that is tracking our picks because I was just I
41:51
Speaker 1: was just waiting for this whole thing to fall apart. Honestly, like,
41:54
Speaker 1: I'm so happy that we're actually no matter what, we're
41:57
Speaker 1: gonna have a winning record for the year, just because,
42:00
Speaker 1: like I said, at the beginning. Here we're doing these
42:01
Speaker 1: picks on Tuesday, like we're we're doing something so hard,
42:06
Speaker 1: even though super consciences is hard enough. Were I never
42:09
Speaker 1: really thought would be in this position to actually be
42:10
Speaker 1: in the money, as much as I like to give
42:12
Speaker 1: you guys a positive attitude every week, but here about
42:16
Speaker 1: to be in the money. So I'm really excited. Oh
42:19
Speaker 1: my god, that is classic parenting. I didn't think it
42:22
Speaker 1: could happen. I really had no faith in you whatsoever.
42:25
Speaker 1: But I had to be positive the whole time to
42:28
Speaker 1: truly make you feel like you guys were special. And
42:30
Speaker 1: then the end of the day, here we are. Well,
42:32
Speaker 1: it's so funny. Like the other day, you know, I'm
42:35
Speaker 1: on vacation with my family, and like the other day,
42:38
Speaker 1: we had a long talk about the importance of optimism, um,
42:43
Speaker 1: just generally being optimistic and uh in life and looking
42:48
Speaker 1: at things positively, And here you are using that exact
42:53
Speaker 1: lesson on me. Well, I learned at a young age
42:57
Speaker 1: in life, if you surround yourself with positive people, you
43:00
Speaker 1: will find a positive things will happen to you because
43:03
Speaker 1: it's a true thing. Where you are, you're surrounded you,
43:06
Speaker 1: you create what it's in your life. So if you're negative,
43:08
Speaker 1: I'm can you every week being like, oh, you guys
43:10
Speaker 1: are so stupid thick and this thick, and that it
43:12
Speaker 1: would never get us anywhere. So my my whole mentality
43:15
Speaker 1: is always be positive because things will come back to you.
43:17
Speaker 1: I agree with you. You were unbelievably positive. I felt
43:21
Speaker 1: like you were our teacher slash parents all season long,
43:24
Speaker 1: and like even when we were the biggest idiots, you
43:27
Speaker 1: were like, hey, guys, you know what. Even on the
43:28
Speaker 1: weekends when we're texting about it, you're like, guys, you
43:31
Speaker 1: know what, Well, rally, it's okay. It could have been
43:33
Speaker 1: the right side. It was a good pick, even when
43:35
Speaker 1: like like the um when Darren is coming up with
43:40
Speaker 1: like crazy square picks, you're like, you're like, you know what.
43:44
Speaker 1: I could see it. I could understand it. But here's
43:46
Speaker 1: what I think we should do. It was you're gonna
43:48
Speaker 1: be a great parents, Simon Hunter. Um, let's let's run
43:52
Speaker 1: down some games here. Darren has sent his his picks.
43:54
Speaker 1: He wants Miami plus sixteen, he wants Colts minus three
44:00
Speaker 1: and a half, Redskins plus eleven, Cincinnati plus two and
44:05
Speaker 1: a half, and Buffalo minus one. My initial reaction on Miami.
44:13
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, I've already bet Miami plus sixteen. I
44:16
Speaker 1: bet it this morning. Um right, and that's I mean,
44:19
Speaker 1: that's a huge number. Uh. You gotta take that number
44:23
Speaker 1: because everything we've seen from Miami is that Fitzpagrick can
44:26
Speaker 1: be down by thirty. He doesn't care. He's gonna still
44:29
Speaker 1: be chucking that ball deep and he is the king
44:31
Speaker 1: of backdoors. So I like that too. All right, we
44:34
Speaker 1: love Miami. I actually like the Colts a lot too.
44:38
Speaker 1: In this spot. Jacksonville is terrible. The Colts are a
44:41
Speaker 1: much better coach team. Um, I don't hate it. Yeah,
44:46
Speaker 1: and I like it too in the sense that the
44:48
Speaker 1: Colts acts you're helping now, like Mac is back, t
44:51
Speaker 1: Y Hilton played last week. Rossette looked like himself last week,
44:54
Speaker 1: and Jack these guys, like I watched. I had a
44:58
Speaker 1: lot of money on Atlanta, so I was watching a
45:00
Speaker 1: lot of that game. The Jags just don't want to tackle,
45:03
Speaker 1: like you can tell the defense. These guys, they're just
45:05
Speaker 1: trying to get the paycheck, get to the end of
45:07
Speaker 1: the season and go on vacation. So this is one
45:09
Speaker 1: of those games where they're they're already playing in their
45:12
Speaker 1: vacation where it looks like Indy is gonna be playing
45:14
Speaker 1: for the end for Frank and they can make the
45:16
Speaker 1: playoffs still Indie technically, So I liked that a lot too.
45:19
Speaker 1: All right, do you have this game rated up, by
45:21
Speaker 1: the way, So it was kind of funny where I
45:25
Speaker 1: had this game at NINEUS six for Indy. So when
45:29
Speaker 1: it opened, I was like, oh man, maybe maybe they're
45:32
Speaker 1: thinking here that Indy. You know, they're they're not gonna
45:35
Speaker 1: be trying as hard because the aline's open up early,
45:38
Speaker 1: and little do they know that Indie. All these things
45:40
Speaker 1: went right with Indian now with the chance to make
45:41
Speaker 1: the playoffs. So now I definitely like that number with
45:44
Speaker 1: Indie beautiful love it. I don't mind the Redskins plus
45:48
Speaker 1: eleven um, but I actually just think the number is
45:52
Speaker 1: gonna go bigger and so I want to wait and
45:54
Speaker 1: see where it lands. It's also probably not one of
45:57
Speaker 1: my top five picks. It's not it's not gonna be
46:00
Speaker 1: in my type because there's other easier games on the
46:02
Speaker 1: board this week. We're like, sure, that's like, that's a
46:06
Speaker 1: good number of case keenom because case enos I mean,
46:09
Speaker 1: he brought them all the way back against the Giants chesterday.
46:12
Speaker 1: But I just don't I don't like that where Dallas
46:14
Speaker 1: they're gonna be way more desperate because this that's their
46:17
Speaker 1: playoff game now, like they have to win, So I
46:21
Speaker 1: would stay away from it too. Alright, he's got Cincinnati
46:24
Speaker 1: plus two and a half. We're escaping that, like we can't. Yeah,
46:28
Speaker 1: we all agree, we all hate Cleveland, but yeah, let's
46:30
Speaker 1: just get that. Uh. He also likes Buffalo minus one.
46:35
Speaker 1: I don't love betting against the Jets in a game
46:37
Speaker 1: where Buffalo cannot improve its position. Yeah, exactly, Like I
46:42
Speaker 1: honestly we got screwed without Tennessee where that game didn't
46:45
Speaker 1: matter how much Tennessee so New Orleans and meant more
46:48
Speaker 1: to them, where this is the same extusan Buffalo does
46:50
Speaker 1: not care about this game. Sure they wouldn't win every game,
46:53
Speaker 1: so they might be the right side, but they're not
46:55
Speaker 1: really knowing you're gonna get. They could sit there, guys
46:56
Speaker 1: at half time for all we know, and the Jets
46:58
Speaker 1: could just kill So that's to stay away. You've mentioned
47:01
Speaker 1: a couple of times that like, there are some really
47:03
Speaker 1: easy lines here, So you tell me what you think
47:05
Speaker 1: the easy lines are. And I'm going to tell you
47:07
Speaker 1: if I agree, sure, I think a really smart, easy
47:11
Speaker 1: line this week to meet Titans, where Houston, it's already
47:15
Speaker 1: come out that Bill O'Brien is gonna arrest his players,
47:18
Speaker 1: and the Titans des really need this game. So I
47:21
Speaker 1: love that in the same situation where last year, like
47:24
Speaker 1: the Rams, they were sitting there, guys in the year
47:26
Speaker 1: and they sat there, guys, gets the Seahawks, and the the
47:28
Speaker 1: Seahawks need the game to get in the playoffs, and
47:29
Speaker 1: think the Seahawks peed by thirty. So it's this kind
47:31
Speaker 1: of same situation where a team already in the playoffs
47:34
Speaker 1: is gonnarest their players and you're getting good value on
47:36
Speaker 1: the Titans as long as the stays under seven. So
47:39
Speaker 1: Titans under seven, I gotta tell you that just feels
47:41
Speaker 1: like a huge, huge number to me. It would to
47:46
Speaker 1: me too. But if you look at Houston this year
47:50
Speaker 1: in the metrics of Watson, he's their team. I mean,
47:53
Speaker 1: every little thing that's worked out for them is because
47:55
Speaker 1: of him. He's covered up a lot of ugliness of
47:58
Speaker 1: that team. So in a spot like this, I mean,
48:01
Speaker 1: the Titans, that's just an amazing, amazing spot for them.
48:05
Speaker 1: This line is gonna keep going up. I'm telling you,
48:07
Speaker 1: like I got it when I opened it two and
48:08
Speaker 1: a half. I'm seeing some books already five and a half,
48:11
Speaker 1: so it's gonna keep going up. So it's days under seven. Wow. Wow,
48:15
Speaker 1: all right, well that's good to know. Okay, what about um,
48:19
Speaker 1: give me another one or else I'll give you mine, sure,
48:22
Speaker 1: and then another one that I was just on the
48:25
Speaker 1: fact that it's a nice let down spot for the
48:27
Speaker 1: one team and a good good spot. The other is
48:29
Speaker 1: Oakland coming in after a big win. I know they're
48:32
Speaker 1: playing for their playoff hopes, but just Denver here is
48:35
Speaker 1: just a much better team, a much healthier team, and
48:37
Speaker 1: they've just been playing really well, especially at home. So
48:41
Speaker 1: that line, it's I think I'm seeing some three three
48:44
Speaker 1: and a half fourth, I got it six and a half.
48:46
Speaker 1: So you're getting really good value there on Denver at home.
48:50
Speaker 1: I love Denver here. I love them with I mean,
48:56
Speaker 1: that was just like we always talked about the Chargers
48:59
Speaker 1: Hey winning So that was just a great spot last
49:01
Speaker 1: week for open It was kind of their last home
49:02
Speaker 1: game in Cali. Now they're going on the road to
49:05
Speaker 1: cold Denver and play a team that's really good at
49:08
Speaker 1: what Oakland's defense is bad at doing, which is stopped
49:10
Speaker 1: in the run in quick passes. So I love Denver here,
49:13
Speaker 1: all right, I do too. Um, we're feeling pretty good.
49:18
Speaker 1: Here's my game that I'm dying to bet, and I'm
49:21
Speaker 1: just waiting the Giants at plus five five and a
49:27
Speaker 1: half wherever it's going to land against the Philadelphia Eagles.
49:33
Speaker 1: That that's a great spot in the sense that, like
49:36
Speaker 1: if you talked a lot of x NFL players, they
49:38
Speaker 1: always talk about these weeks and divisional games where they
49:40
Speaker 1: know they could spoil a team's season even though they're
49:43
Speaker 1: out of it. I can spoil team season at the
49:45
Speaker 1: end of the season here, and this is a lot
49:47
Speaker 1: of points for an Eagles team that just does not
49:50
Speaker 1: blow teams out. They had to have everything go right
49:52
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys just to win by eight. So you're
49:55
Speaker 1: looking at a team here that's they're not overperforming, but
49:58
Speaker 1: they're getting they're getting breaks now in the Cowboys, where
50:01
Speaker 1: the Giants look like they're actually playing well together, Like
50:04
Speaker 1: Barkley has just been incredible these last couple of weeks.
50:07
Speaker 1: So with with the home dog here, you gotta love
50:10
Speaker 1: the Giants cutting these points. But is that should that
50:14
Speaker 1: be one of our picks if we have to go
50:15
Speaker 1: five and oh this week, are we thinking giants are
50:19
Speaker 1: a pick? We can we can put them on. We
50:23
Speaker 1: can put them and then we can debate if you
50:25
Speaker 1: want to do San Fran against Seattle, because Seattle is
50:29
Speaker 1: just banged up. They just lost their best past blocking linemen.
50:33
Speaker 1: They've already lost their center and they lost one of
50:35
Speaker 1: their guards, and they just lost two more guys and
50:38
Speaker 1: they're running back. So now they're bringing a Marshawn Lynch
50:41
Speaker 1: as a running back. So as long as this number
50:43
Speaker 1: stays under four for San Fran, I'd actually really like
50:46
Speaker 1: San Franto. Wow, san Fran in a lot of places.
50:51
Speaker 1: I just spoke to Scoochy about this minus three, minus
50:54
Speaker 1: one thirty. All the money is coming in on San
50:56
Speaker 1: Francisco and it's I know, people, I was saying, that's
51:00
Speaker 1: just such a public chalk pick. But it's just like
51:03
Speaker 1: the Chiefs last year, last week, where you're playing a
51:05
Speaker 1: number like the Chiefs last night. As long as they
51:07
Speaker 1: stay in or seven, that was a smart side to take.
51:10
Speaker 1: As soon as they hit seven, that was the Bears
51:13
Speaker 1: by the map, there's a smart side. But six and
51:15
Speaker 1: a half, just like last week the Chiefs. That's just
51:18
Speaker 1: a good number because you're taking the team that's healthy
51:20
Speaker 1: against the team that's not. So with this San frand
51:23
Speaker 1: I know people are thinking they haven't looked good the
51:25
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, and Seattle had their worst loss
51:28
Speaker 1: last week. I mean Arizona dominated them. Yeah, I think
51:31
Speaker 1: it's just Seattle can't overcome these injuries. They I mean,
51:34
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson only can do so much. And I go
51:36
Speaker 1: against the San Fran team who's playing for the number
51:38
Speaker 1: one seed. I like. I like this number a lot.
51:41
Speaker 1: I can see why the public is on it. Is
51:43
Speaker 1: there any other game on the board with an easy line,
51:45
Speaker 1: as you referred to that that we're not looking at?
51:51
Speaker 1: There are, but it's it's more than since I have
51:54
Speaker 1: to we have to wait and see what these reports
51:56
Speaker 1: are gonna be coming out about who's gonna play who's not,
51:59
Speaker 1: because I don't know why Baltimore would be playing any
52:04
Speaker 1: of their starters, So Pittsburgh, that might be a really
52:06
Speaker 1: easy line this week. And another reason one might be
52:08
Speaker 1: Atlanta at Tampa where Tampa Bay they fought it out
52:13
Speaker 1: with Houston. They stuck in that game after all Winston's turnovers,
52:17
Speaker 1: but they are just so banged up in Atlanta has
52:19
Speaker 1: just been playing really tough now for about five six weeks.
52:23
Speaker 1: So it's another good line where Atlanta I think they're
52:25
Speaker 1: minus I mean I think Atlantis plus one plus two,
52:28
Speaker 1: so that might be another good number. I like Atlanta,
52:31
Speaker 1: and that's about to actually a lot. I think it's them.
52:36
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are gonna keep back
52:38
Speaker 1: in Jamis because Jamis is. I mean a lot of
52:40
Speaker 1: people have just loved the way Jamis plays where he
52:43
Speaker 1: he burns the whole house down, then he rebuilds in
52:46
Speaker 1: the same game where he's just play. You don't know
52:49
Speaker 1: what he's gonna do every every time he drops back.
52:51
Speaker 1: He's truly a wild card where Atlanta has just been consistent.
52:55
Speaker 1: To me, They've really really come together here in the
52:57
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks. I already told each that in
53:00
Speaker 1: twenty whatever the season win so to live for Atlanta.
53:03
Speaker 1: I'm betting the over, and then you will fall into
53:07
Speaker 1: that trap once again. Every year. We always think Atlanta
53:11
Speaker 1: the next year is gonna be their years, since that's
53:12
Speaker 1: superl and they just they haven't put it together. I
53:15
Speaker 1: don't want to I don't want to blame Quinn, but
53:18
Speaker 1: it all falls on him. Their defense lost them multiple
53:21
Speaker 1: games to start the year and they couldn't recover from it.
53:23
Speaker 1: So I can see how you like them next year.
53:25
Speaker 1: But I've actually been big under guy for Atlanta every
53:28
Speaker 1: year since the Super Bowl. I guess I'm just thinking,
53:31
Speaker 1: like it's going to be below eight, and I feel
53:33
Speaker 1: like the win eight games. They have so much talent,
53:36
Speaker 1: it's crazy. Every year they just don't put it together.
53:39
Speaker 1: They just have so much talent, all right, So these
53:42
Speaker 1: are our picks right now, assuming you know you and
53:46
Speaker 1: I will continue to discuss over the course of the
53:48
Speaker 1: week as well. Darren Miami Movement Miami plus sixteen Colts
53:53
Speaker 1: minus three and a half Titans, as long as it
53:56
Speaker 1: stays under seven Denver minus three and a half. And
54:00
Speaker 1: then we're gonna keep an eye on the Giants and
54:01
Speaker 1: the Niners, like how high does the Giants line go?
54:05
Speaker 1: How how high does the Niners line go, And we
54:08
Speaker 1: will determine our final picks based on that. Yeah, And
54:12
Speaker 1: like once I get more time to put all these
54:14
Speaker 1: numbers in and really see how it plays that with
54:16
Speaker 1: who's playing who's not, because like last week, I keen
54:19
Speaker 1: you guys with the Jets and the Eagles. Um where
54:21
Speaker 1: we're teching just because like by the time I had
54:23
Speaker 1: all my data and it was just saying these numbers
54:25
Speaker 1: are way off. You're getting tons of value on those,
54:27
Speaker 1: so hopefully this week we can get that again. But
54:29
Speaker 1: seeing where the value is. Simon Hunter, you are a
54:33
Speaker 1: font of optimism and a kind and gracious man for
54:37
Speaker 1: dealing with Darren I throughout the year. And listen, the
54:41
Speaker 1: fact that we're even on the border of making any
54:44
Speaker 1: money on this thing is absurd, so thank you for that.
54:49
Speaker 1: It's crazy. We definitely need a Christmas miracle here, but hey,
54:52
Speaker 1: crazier things have happened. Well, listen, we're good people, so um,
54:59
Speaker 1: I am optimists sick. That's how we'll end it. I
55:01
Speaker 1: am going to be optimistic. I was well good. I
55:05
Speaker 1: will to my man all right, man, have a good holidays,
55:07
Speaker 1: bro Hi brother you too. Thanks for doing this. Take
55:10
Speaker 1: it easy. This has been the Favorites from the Action
55:14
Speaker 1: Network downloaded Apple podcast rate review, subscribe, check it out
55:19
Speaker 1: radio dot Com, search the Favorites, or wherever you get
55:23
Speaker 1: your podcasts. Enjoy your holidays everybody. Until next week. I
55:27
Speaker 1: love you.