Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / Polish PM WARNS Russia is escalating war in Ukraine

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Polish PM WARNS Russia is escalating war in Ukraine · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Has Vladimir Putin agreed or committed to not attacking a
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: NATO territory?
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  Speaker 2: I've had good talks with him.
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  Speaker 3: He's not going to be attacking a NATO territory.
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  Speaker 2: Is that going to deliver a warning to Russia not
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  Speaker 2: to attack NATO territory during his.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I don't want to comment on that, but they're
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  Speaker 3: not going to attack it.
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  Speaker 1: President Trump there offering reassurance to NATO allies after CIA
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Director John Ratcliffe met secretly with Russian intelligence officials last
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  Speaker 1: week in Moscow. Axios reports Ratcliffe proposed a meeting between Trump,
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  Speaker 1: Putin and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky in a push to
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  Speaker 1: finally end the four-year war. Let's bring in Kurt Volker,
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  Speaker 1: former U.S. ambassador to NATO.
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  Speaker 2: What's your opinion?
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  Speaker 1: There are some who fear that Russia might launch a
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  Speaker 1: limited nuclear strike, maybe on Ukraine or maybe on a
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  Speaker 1: NATO country.
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  Speaker 2: You know the region extremely well. What do you think?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, well, thank you so much, John. And look, I
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: don't think Vladimir Putin is intending to attack NATO countries
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  Speaker 4: right now. He is bogged down in Ukraine. It's very
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  Speaker 4: difficult for him. I don't think he can afford expanding
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  Speaker 4: the war. And any NATO response will be too much
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  Speaker 4: for Russia to handle. So I think that part of
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  Speaker 4: the discussion is a red herring. A limited nuclear strike
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  Speaker 4: is possible. But I think, again, the costs for Russia
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  Speaker 4: of doing that in terms of the loss of support
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  Speaker 4: from China, loss of support from the global south, no
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  Speaker 4: real battlefield gain from doing so, and perhaps mobilizing the
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  Speaker 4: United States and European allies even more. I don't think
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  Speaker 4: it's worth it to Russia to do that either. So
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  Speaker 4: I think these are all things we have to pay
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  Speaker 4: attention to. We shouldn't just dismiss them. But at the
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  Speaker 4: same time, I think these are very unlikely.
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  Speaker 1: Retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg is one of those who
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  Speaker 1: says that the possibility of the use of at least
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  Speaker 1: a small nuclear weapon is still out there.
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  Speaker 2: Listen to General Kellogg.
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  Speaker 3: And I think the big worry is, is he going
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  Speaker 3: to go, you know, there's always a threat in Ukraine.
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  Speaker 3: Is he going to do a limited nuclear strike? I mean,
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  Speaker 3: what we call a demonstration, where you take something, small
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  Speaker 3: nuclear weapon, and you put it in the middle of nowhere.
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  Speaker 3: And see, I've crossed that threshold.
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  Speaker 2: See, I've crossed that threshold.
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  Speaker 1: You don't think that Vladimir Putin would take that very
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  Speaker 1: risky move?
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  Speaker 2: I don't, all due respect to Keith.
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  Speaker 4: I don't think that that gains Vladimir Putin anything, and
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  Speaker 4: I think the costs to him of doing so are significant.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: I think that there is still some reluctance on the
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  Speaker 4: part of the United States and NATO allies to do
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  Speaker 4: everything that we could to support Ukraine and push back
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  Speaker 4: on Russia. And I think China is still trying to
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  Speaker 4: play both sides. I think all of that would change
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: if they were to use a nuclear weapon. Everyone's going
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  Speaker 4: to see that as unacceptable. So I don't think the
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  Speaker 4: benefits to Putin are really there.
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  Speaker 1: The president of Poland, Donald Tusk, is saying that the
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  Speaker 1: next six months of this war are going.
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  Speaker 2: To be decisive.
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  Speaker 1: He writes, as I have been warning, the escalation from
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  Speaker 1: Russia's side is progressing rapidly.
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine needs greater air support, which is also crucial for
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  Speaker 2: our security. Poland being right next to Ukraine. This is
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  Speaker 2: a task for all of Europe.
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  Speaker 1: The next six months will be decisive and we must
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  Speaker 1: be prepared as Poland and NATO for various scenarios. We
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  Speaker 1: cannot rule out provocations from Russia against one of NATO's members.
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  Speaker 2: They're obviously very nervous.
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  Speaker 1: President Trump has suggested that they could do more to
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: take on the Russian bear.
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  Speaker 2: What do you think?
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  Speaker 4: Well, first off, Prime Minister Tusk in Poland is absolutely right.
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  Speaker 4: They just had a Russian missile land in Poland just
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  Speaker 4: a couple of weeks ago. So he's absolutely right that
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  Speaker 4: whether it is intentional or accidental, the risks of this
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  Speaker 4: war for NATO spilling over into NATO territory are very significant.
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  Speaker 4: And so what is embedded in his message there is
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  Speaker 4: a suggestion that NATO and Ukraine need to work together
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  Speaker 4: for the protection of NATO. Leave Ukraine's security aside.
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  Speaker 2: They're in a war.
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  Speaker 4: But we don't want dangerous flying objects coming near NATO territory.
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  Speaker 4: So that is part of what he's saying. Now, I
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  Speaker 4: think that Putin, again, as I said, is going to
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  Speaker 4: be careful not to launch a direct confrontation with NATO
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  Speaker 4: when he is bogged down in Ukraine. And as the
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  Speaker 4: prime minister says, next six months will be crucial. But
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  Speaker 4: that can be crucial in either direction. Putin is going
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  Speaker 4: to try to really break Ukraine this winter in terms
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  Speaker 4: of heating, electricity, energy generation. But at the same time,
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  Speaker 4: if he goes through this winter, burns his resources, ends
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  Speaker 4: up facing a Ukraine that survives and a NATO that
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  Speaker 4: remains strong, Putin is in a far weaker position. And
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  Speaker 4: that may finally cause him to say, OK, we need
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  Speaker 4: to have a ceasefire here. So I agree that this
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  Speaker 4: next six months, this winter is crucial. We have to
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  Speaker 4: make that crucial period work for us.
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  Speaker 1: He's also already lost half a million soldiers. Ukraine has
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  Speaker 1: done an incredible job developing long-term drones that are hitting
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: oil and gas depots way inside Russia. Vladimir Putin, his
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  Speaker 1: economy is teetering. He seems to be in real trouble.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: I agree with that.
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  Speaker 4: I think the number one issue for the Kremlin is finances.
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  Speaker 4: Are they getting revenue from oil and gas sales that
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  Speaker 4: they can use to keep putting into the military effort?
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  Speaker 4: And the reality is they're not getting enough. So they're
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  Speaker 4: dipping into their gold reserves. They've burnt through their sovereign
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  Speaker 4: wealth fund. They are really scraping the bottom of the
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  Speaker 4: barrel in terms of finances for the war effort. In
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  Speaker 4: addition to that, the war is affecting everyday Russians. The
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  Speaker 4: Ukrainians have managed to use long-range strikes to knock out
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  Speaker 4: oil refining capability which is causing fuel shortages and gasoline
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  Speaker 4: shortages across Russia. And they're creating explosions at these factories
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  Speaker 4: and oil refineries that everybody sees. So average Russians now
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  Speaker 4: know this is not an antiseptic operation. It affects them.
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  Speaker 1: It's not just a special military operation anymore. Former Ambassador
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  Speaker 1: Kurt Volker.
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  Speaker 2: Ambassador, thank you. Thank you.
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• 6:34
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• 6:38
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