Transcript

Credlin | 31 March · Credlin

0:02
Speaker 1: Peter Kranbler live on Sky News Australia.
0:08
Speaker 2: Good evening, Welcome to the program. The first full week
0:10
Speaker 2: of the federal election campaign. We're kicking up the special
0:13
Speaker 2: five weeks of coverage political coverage here on Krevlin. Here's
0:17
Speaker 2: what's coming out this evening. A slide bump in the
0:19
Speaker 2: polls for Labor This is news poll. The coalitions are
0:23
Speaker 2: head in the Resolve poll and it's another nil or
0:26
Speaker 2: draw in the others. The poles are going to come
0:28
Speaker 2: thick and fast. So what do you make of them?
0:30
Speaker 2: All the rest analyst analysts in the business dead A Shanahan,
0:34
Speaker 2: Chris Yelman coming up to pull them apart. Let's stay
0:37
Speaker 2: two on campaign mechanics. Each Monday night for the next
0:40
Speaker 2: five weeks, we're going to cross live to the coalition's
0:43
Speaker 2: campaign headquarters for an exclusive chat with a HQ's official spokesman,
0:48
Speaker 2: Senator James Patterson. We'll also talk to him today on
0:52
Speaker 2: that latest shooting in Melbourne involving one of Labour's released
0:56
Speaker 2: foreign criminals. The energy blame game, it's gone up a notch.
1:01
Speaker 2: The Prime Minister now disowning the modeling that underpins his
1:05
Speaker 2: entire energy and climate agenda. Albanezi says this modeling separate
1:09
Speaker 2: from the government. The thing is we've got the tapes
1:12
Speaker 2: to prove otherwise, and that damning admission today that the
1:16
Speaker 2: Prime Minister very quickly tried to take back.
1:21
Speaker 3: If you ask me, do you rule out governing and
1:24
Speaker 3: coalition with the Greens, she answered that is no.
1:30
Speaker 2: But first I've always said the polls are a good
1:33
Speaker 2: guide to how you're going, but not always a good
1:35
Speaker 2: guide as to what you should do, often because poles
1:40
Speaker 2: tend to be a lagging indicator. So no surprises. There's
1:44
Speaker 2: a drop today in Newsport because, as you've heard me
1:46
Speaker 2: say here, the coalition attacks slowed down in recent weeks.
1:50
Speaker 2: Now I felt it, you told me you felt it,
1:54
Speaker 2: and here it is now reflected in one of the
1:56
Speaker 2: newspaper polls. But as I've also said in a can
2:00
Speaker 2: and Pain polling, it's going to bounce around, and that
2:03
Speaker 2: I tend to focus on not what the bounds is,
2:07
Speaker 2: but the trend. And further than that, once the election
2:11
Speaker 2: campaign is officially called, as it was last Friday, then
2:14
Speaker 2: things will inevitably tighten, so that the last thing any
2:17
Speaker 2: coalition supporters should do now it's panic just because the momentum.
2:22
Speaker 2: We know the Opposition lost over the past couple of
2:24
Speaker 2: weeks has shown up in the polls. Now, why do
2:27
Speaker 2: I say that? Or primarily because the fundamentals have not changed.
2:34
Speaker 2: There's still a cost of living crisis in this country
2:36
Speaker 2: and it's still Anthony Albanesi's fault. Now, can the Coalition
2:41
Speaker 2: do a better job helping Australians to understand who's responsible
2:45
Speaker 2: for this pain? Well, you bet they can by simply
2:48
Speaker 2: and repeatedly stating the facts by hitting harder because people
2:53
Speaker 2: are hurting and they're angry, and they've got a right
2:57
Speaker 2: to be angry on this government's watch. And added of
3:00
Speaker 2: livings dropped eight percent. That's the worst drop of anywhere
3:04
Speaker 2: in the developed world. And it's being driven by Labour's
3:08
Speaker 2: mad energy policy that's putting power prices through the roof,
3:12
Speaker 2: by Labour's spending addiction that's keeping mortgage rates higher than
3:16
Speaker 2: they should be for longer, and by Labour's love of
3:19
Speaker 2: Big Australia. Because it's Albanesi's record immigration that's depressing wages,
3:25
Speaker 2: hiking housing costs and clogging out roads. It is Labour's
3:30
Speaker 2: green left ideology that's made your life harder and it
3:33
Speaker 2: will only get worse. Souve Albanese is re elected and
3:36
Speaker 2: dependent on the Greens to keep his job. Today, the
3:40
Speaker 2: Prime Minister made his first campaign stumble, I.
3:45
Speaker 3: Rule out, I rule out. Just to be really clear again,
3:50
Speaker 3: if you ask me, do you rule out governing and
3:54
Speaker 3: coalition with the Greens, she answered that is no. No
3:58
Speaker 3: is no. I don't negotiate with the.
4:02
Speaker 2: Now. If Labor was serious about repudiating the Greens, they
4:05
Speaker 2: would be last on Labour's how the votes. But they'll
4:08
Speaker 2: never be last because Albanezy knows that he needs the
4:11
Speaker 2: Green preferences to survive that without adding bands, he and
4:15
Speaker 2: Jody wouldn't get their wedding on the lawns of Kiribilly House.
4:20
Speaker 2: Back to those poles, let's take a closer look, because
4:24
Speaker 2: they're actually a bit of a mixed bag. News poll
4:27
Speaker 2: as I've already flagged published in Australia and has Labor
4:29
Speaker 2: hair head on two party preferred terms fifty one forty
4:33
Speaker 2: nine in the Sydney Morning Herald. The resolved pole there, well,
4:36
Speaker 2: it's got both majors tied fifty to fifty over at
4:40
Speaker 2: the Austraight and Financial Review, the AFAR their poll. The
4:42
Speaker 2: fresh water pole, well, it's got the coalition a head
4:46
Speaker 2: fifty one forty nine. Now all of these poles is
4:49
Speaker 2: an error on the screen, it's the other way around.
4:50
Speaker 2: All of these poles, i might add, are within the
4:53
Speaker 2: margin of era. So as a campaigner, it's not so
4:56
Speaker 2: much these poles I'd be worried about, but the one
4:58
Speaker 2: that will come next week. After spending billions and billions
5:02
Speaker 2: in the budget last Tuesday, what's clear in these polls
5:05
Speaker 2: is that there's no budget bounce for the government. Indeed,
5:08
Speaker 2: it's fair to say the budget's flopped, with voters only
5:12
Speaker 2: twenty two percent saying it would be good for the economy.
5:16
Speaker 2: Now that's the worst budget result for any budget since
5:19
Speaker 2: that question was first asked in nineteen ninety nine. Apart
5:24
Speaker 2: from immigration, if there's one issue that will swing the election,
5:27
Speaker 2: it's energy because energy is a core subset of cost
5:32
Speaker 2: of living. Cost of living is the government's supreme weakness,
5:37
Speaker 2: and on energy policy will labor a.
5:40
Speaker 3: Liars reducing power prices by two hundred and seventy five dollars.
5:45
Speaker 4: Reducing power prices by two hundred and seventy five dollars.
5:47
Speaker 5: By twenty twenty five two hundred and seventy five dollars
5:50
Speaker 5: a year.
5:51
Speaker 3: One hundred and seventy five dollars a year will get.
5:54
Speaker 5: Power prices down by two hundred and seventy five dollars.
5:57
Speaker 3: A year, two hundred and seventy five dollars the average house.
6:02
Speaker 2: And they made the promise in the last election campaign
6:05
Speaker 2: on the basis of what Albernese said here at the time.
6:11
Speaker 3: Is the most comprehensive modeling ever done for any policy
6:15
Speaker 3: by any opposition in Australia's history since Federation.
6:22
Speaker 2: Back then, Labor pretty happy to warn the modeling, weren't they,
6:25
Speaker 2: even when it challenged Anthony Albanesi just doubled down.
6:31
Speaker 6: What is it about this new policy, is that the
6:33
Speaker 6: grid investment or something else that actually generates that two
6:36
Speaker 6: seventy five dollars benefit.
6:37
Speaker 3: Well, I don't think I know. I know because we
6:42
Speaker 3: have done the modeling.
6:46
Speaker 2: I don't think I know not anymore. Here's the PM
6:51
Speaker 2: pulled up of his broken power promise, insisting Labor had
6:55
Speaker 2: nothing to do now with that.
6:58
Speaker 6: Modeling Texas modeling, that was what you base your policies on.
7:03
Speaker 3: It's Repitexas model co ownership of that modeling it's reputexes modeling.
7:07
Speaker 3: From that time, reputex modeling was reputext modeling that they
7:11
Speaker 3: put out.
7:14
Speaker 2: What a week week man Any wonder too. We haven't
7:17
Speaker 2: barely seen Chris Bowen since the election was called. He's
7:20
Speaker 2: in witness protection, isn't he? Because this is the modeling
7:23
Speaker 2: that he and Labor used to justify the fantasy claim
7:27
Speaker 2: that moving to eighty two percent renewables would somehow create
7:31
Speaker 2: over half a million jobs, six hundred thousand jobs, says
7:35
Speaker 2: the modeling. Well, that's now all junked. Still, it hasn't
7:39
Speaker 2: stopped Labor making new claims based on this modeling, this
7:42
Speaker 2: time that Peter Dutton's nuclear policy would be more expensive
7:46
Speaker 2: than Labour's renewables only policy. Today, Peter Dutton was repeatedly
7:51
Speaker 2: challenged on this by an aggressive media pack, but eventually
7:55
Speaker 2: he got the answer right. Basically, how can you trust
7:59
Speaker 2: any Labor model given the previous lies?
8:03
Speaker 7: This morning, when Chris Bowen has released some analysis from
8:06
Speaker 7: the Department of Climate Change and Energy saying that you're
8:08
Speaker 7: modeling significantly underestimates costs, including maintenance in terms of life extensions,
8:13
Speaker 7: and say.
8:14
Speaker 5: Well, the modeling has been out there for months and
8:16
Speaker 5: months and months, and so I wouldn't take Chris Bowen
8:19
Speaker 5: at his word on anything. Chris Bowen, along with the
8:22
Speaker 5: Prime Minister, promise at power prices had come down by
8:24
Speaker 5: two hundred and seventy five dollars. They've gone up by
8:26
Speaker 5: thirteen hundred dollars. So do you think that he can
8:29
Speaker 5: be trusted? I don't think so.
8:33
Speaker 2: There's going to be a lot of defeat in this
8:34
Speaker 2: campaign in an attempt to bury those broken promises, like
8:39
Speaker 2: this claim from the Prime Minister that power prices had
8:42
Speaker 2: fallen some twenty five percent last year.
8:46
Speaker 3: In twenty twenty four, power prices fell twenty five point
8:51
Speaker 3: two percent. They would have fallen just one point six
8:54
Speaker 3: percent without rebate.
8:57
Speaker 2: Now what he didn't tell you, did it was that
9:00
Speaker 2: confirmation in his own budget papers know less that but
9:05
Speaker 2: for federal and state subsidies, your power bill would be forty
9:09
Speaker 2: five percent higher. That's six point eight billion dollars in
9:14
Speaker 2: power bill subsidies from your pocket as a federal taxpayer alone.
9:19
Speaker 2: Add in the state subsidies and it's even higher. Surely,
9:23
Speaker 2: any half sensible government we change the policy that's causing
9:26
Speaker 2: the bills to spike, rather than subsidize them to deal
9:30
Speaker 2: with the price surge the government itself has caused, but
9:34
Speaker 2: not labor, and it's only going to get worse if
9:37
Speaker 2: Labour slides back into office. If Chris Bowen stays on
9:40
Speaker 2: as our Energy Minister, along with his new mate Mat Kean,
9:44
Speaker 2: we're in trouble. We know the government's already renegged on
9:47
Speaker 2: an earlier promise to give us the new twenty thirty
9:50
Speaker 2: five emissions targets before we vote, and we're not going
9:53
Speaker 2: to see them now, nor are they going to give
9:56
Speaker 2: us an answer on the massive Northwest Shelf energy project.
10:00
Speaker 2: All they'll say is that their new emissions targets will
10:03
Speaker 2: be ambitious at the same time as we know the
10:06
Speaker 2: rest of the big emitters around the world, or they're
10:10
Speaker 2: walking away from any targets. I mean, these clowns in
10:13
Speaker 2: Labor are doubling down on failure instead of changing course.
10:18
Speaker 2: If re elected, they'll ban all domestic gas use. They'll
10:21
Speaker 2: ban coal and gas exports. Plus they'll cull the national
10:25
Speaker 2: cattlehurn due to meet thane gas, as well as force
10:28
Speaker 2: you to drive an ev whether you want to or not. Now,
10:31
Speaker 2: this is the nightmare facing Australia if Albaneze is re elected.
10:36
Speaker 2: So to all those people willing Peter it upon to
10:38
Speaker 2: do better, and no doubt swamping him with free and
10:41
Speaker 2: good advice, I get it. I get it. But having
10:44
Speaker 2: been there in the eye of the storm, as they
10:46
Speaker 2: get off his back and let him get on with it,
10:49
Speaker 2: I'm sure in coming days he'll simplify and amplify the message.
10:53
Speaker 2: He'll go harder. If he doesn't, he won't get there.
10:57
Speaker 2: And he knows what's at stake. Believe me he does.
11:00
Speaker 2: But do everyone who wants to change a government, I
11:02
Speaker 2: say this to you, don't don't just tell Peter Darton
11:05
Speaker 2: what he needs to do and say to change the government,
11:08
Speaker 2: We've all got to get out there ourselves. We're going
11:11
Speaker 2: to tell our mates and our neighbors, our children, our workmates,
11:14
Speaker 2: because it's all up to us too to help voters
11:17
Speaker 2: understand what's at stake for our country. Now, no one
11:21
Speaker 2: thought we could beat the Voice You did, I did.
11:25
Speaker 2: We believe we could. We fought it and we won
11:29
Speaker 2: against the odds. We won. Well, it's the same here
11:33
Speaker 2: all over again. If we learned one thing from the
11:37
Speaker 2: Voice vote, it was this, the power of the silent
11:40
Speaker 2: majority is there if we speak up, I'll tell you
11:45
Speaker 2: what Australia. Now, it's our time to roar all right,
11:54
Speaker 2: as we do in every federal election campaign each night
11:58
Speaker 2: here on Sky about this time we're going to cross
12:00
Speaker 2: to as Sky News journalist on the road with both
12:02
Speaker 2: the Prime Minister and the opposition leader. The PM, well
12:06
Speaker 2: he's in the air right now, but here's our reporter,
12:09
Speaker 2: Reuben Spargo with this.
12:10
Speaker 8: Report flying to Western Australia. The Prime Minister distanced himself
12:15
Speaker 8: from his opponent and left behind energy policy models he
12:18
Speaker 8: once championed.
12:20
Speaker 3: He is the most comprehensive modeling ever done for any
12:24
Speaker 3: policy by any opposition in Australia's history.
12:28
Speaker 6: Do you stand by that modeling?
12:32
Speaker 9: It's reputexas modeling.
12:34
Speaker 8: Joining w A Premier Roger Cook, Anthony Abernezi promised two
12:37
Speaker 8: hundred million dollars to upgrade this hospital in the electorate
12:40
Speaker 8: of Hasluck. It's one of the four seats taken from
12:43
Speaker 8: the Liberals at the last election. The Prime Minister is
12:47
Speaker 8: keen to hold on time.
12:50
Speaker 10: Anthony Aberzi's campaign was interrupted by a Chinese spy ship
12:56
Speaker 10: in Australia's Exclusive Economic Zone, looking a similar route to.
13:01
Speaker 8: The country's deep sea submarine cable.
13:04
Speaker 3: I would prefer that it wasn't there, but we live
13:07
Speaker 3: in circumstances where Justice Australia has vessels in South China
13:11
Speaker 3: Sea and vessels in the Taiwan Strait and a round
13:14
Speaker 3: of a range of areas. This vessel is there.
13:18
Speaker 8: Beijing's move could fuel Peter Dutton's tough stance on national
13:22
Speaker 8: security and accelerate his political momentum.
13:28
Speaker 2: We get someone who knows what they're doing.
13:30
Speaker 8: Ruben Spargo, Sky News, Canberra.
13:35
Speaker 2: All right, as I said, Pem is in the air.
13:37
Speaker 2: That's why we got that as a pre record before
13:39
Speaker 2: they took to the skies. But let's now check him
13:41
Speaker 2: in the Opposition leader's campaign. Joining me now from the
13:43
Speaker 2: federal seat of Brisbane, one of our parliament House team,
13:46
Speaker 2: Cam Reddin. Well, this is your first campaign on the road.
13:50
Speaker 2: You're on the bus, you're on the plane with the
13:52
Speaker 2: opposition leader. Of course you're in Brisbane because he's preparing
13:55
Speaker 2: for his pub test tonight with Paul Murray. But earlier
13:58
Speaker 2: today the marginal seat of Patterson, a lot of focus
14:02
Speaker 2: here on energy can.
14:06
Speaker 11: Yeah, no surprise to see why, Peter, because it really
14:09
Speaker 11: is the heart of the coalition's campaign that core promise
14:11
Speaker 11: of reducing power bills not just the households, but for
14:14
Speaker 11: businesses too. We were at a factory today which deals
14:17
Speaker 11: with heavy mining machinery, so clearly one of the big
14:20
Speaker 11: input costs for them, or one of the big costs
14:22
Speaker 11: on doing business for them, is the price of energy.
14:25
Speaker 11: Peter Dutton and I will say this is a broader
14:27
Speaker 11: point too. I think the electorate broadly that we've been
14:30
Speaker 11: to around Brisbane, Sydney, not a great deal of time
14:32
Speaker 11: in the suburbs yet. But the observation i'd make Peter
14:34
Speaker 11: is the electorate is pretty switched on this time. Most
14:37
Speaker 11: of the people we've spoken to a good couple of
14:40
Speaker 11: dozen over the last few days at least very aware
14:42
Speaker 11: the election's on, very tuned in, aware of some of
14:44
Speaker 11: the major policies of the leaders. And it's no surprise
14:47
Speaker 11: that almost every person we talk to the cost of
14:49
Speaker 11: living comes up, but particularly power prices and the impost
14:52
Speaker 11: of energy, whether they're running a business or at home.
14:55
Speaker 11: So it's no surprise Peter Dutton has run almost a
14:58
Speaker 11: single issue campaign at least over the first three days
15:01
Speaker 11: of this. We will expect more grilling over the days ahead, Peter.
15:04
Speaker 11: When it comes to the fine print, we know the
15:05
Speaker 11: Coalition doesn't want to make the same, in its view
15:08
Speaker 11: mistake as labor of promising a two dollars two hundred
15:12
Speaker 11: and seventy five dollar reduction, putting a dollar figure on it,
15:15
Speaker 11: I promise, they fear they might not be able to keep.
15:18
Speaker 11: So they're talking about percentages now, a percentage increase of
15:21
Speaker 11: how much people's bills will come down. In terms of
15:24
Speaker 11: measuring sticks. If the Coalition wins well in March next year,
15:27
Speaker 11: we get a default market offer, that's the cap on
15:29
Speaker 11: electricity prices, the maximum someone can be charged. So Peter
15:33
Speaker 11: Dutton's target really will be.
15:34
Speaker 2: To get that down.
15:35
Speaker 11: I think by then that's when we'll know if he's
15:37
Speaker 11: able to get those prices down, because clearly it's proven
15:40
Speaker 11: difficult for this government.
15:43
Speaker 2: Any intel cam on where you'll be tomorrow.
15:49
Speaker 11: Ah jeez, if I knew that, Peter, I'd love to know.
15:52
Speaker 11: I mean, one of these the facts about these campaigns
15:54
Speaker 11: is yes, the security detail is tight. I mean it
15:57
Speaker 11: only got tighter after what we saw on Saturday with
15:59
Speaker 11: two protests, somehow managing to crash two Dutton events into
16:03
Speaker 11: space of about three hours, but no, these are some
16:06
Speaker 11: of the tightly held secrets. I'm surprised that nobody has
16:08
Speaker 11: been to Melbourne yet, neither Peter Dutton or the Prime Minister.
16:11
Speaker 11: So I'd be very surprised if we weren't there in
16:13
Speaker 11: the next couple of days. As we continue this lap
16:15
Speaker 11: around the country, Peter, we're often running and bracking up
16:18
Speaker 11: the kilometers.
16:20
Speaker 2: Well enjoy as you rightly say there, Victoria's the battleground,
16:24
Speaker 2: particularly for the Coalition. They've got to win big in
16:26
Speaker 2: the my home states, so they've got a big in Melbourne.
16:30
Speaker 2: We'll watch that closely. Thanks cam Well, let's got out
16:32
Speaker 2: of the flood of poles over the past twenty four hours.
16:34
Speaker 2: It will start with the Australians Years poll. It confirms
16:37
Speaker 2: what I said was my sense of things on the ground.
16:39
Speaker 2: There's been a loss of momentum in recent weeks for
16:41
Speaker 2: the Coalition and that's what's been reported today that over
16:44
Speaker 2: the past three weeks there's been a one percentage point
16:47
Speaker 2: bumped to Labour's primary and a concominant two percentage point
16:52
Speaker 2: drop for the Coalition. Now in the nine papers resolved
16:56
Speaker 2: poll has seen a bigger boost to Labour's primary. It
16:59
Speaker 2: was those sitting at a mega twenty nine percent, but
17:02
Speaker 2: not enough to give it the lead. I think that
17:04
Speaker 2: one's coming out a resolved poll fifty to fifty now
17:06
Speaker 2: two PP terms and over on the Freshwater poll, this
17:10
Speaker 2: one's got Labour inching up by one point to a
17:13
Speaker 2: thirty two primary, the Coalition unchanged at a thirty nine
17:17
Speaker 2: percent primary, meaning on two PP it's fifty one forty
17:21
Speaker 2: nine to the Coalition. So a direct reversal of what
17:26
Speaker 2: News poll's reporting. Joined me now to discuss all of
17:29
Speaker 2: the ins and outs here National editor at The Australian
17:32
Speaker 2: Dennish Anahan and Sky News contributor Chris Yulman. Dennis, I
17:37
Speaker 2: will preface this and say that all of these polls
17:40
Speaker 2: are within the margin of era. But I mean I
17:43
Speaker 2: do favorite News poll and it confirms that sends you
17:46
Speaker 2: and I have discussed here on the show that there's
17:48
Speaker 2: been a loss of momentum for the coalition. That's very
17:53
Speaker 2: much due I think to Labor calling off the election
17:57
Speaker 2: heading in to cyclone out Alfred and I didn't get
18:00
Speaker 2: a sense that the Coalition had a plan then to
18:03
Speaker 2: fill the next couple of weeks before the official kickoff.
18:06
Speaker 2: We've had that official kickoff. We're into the first official week.
18:10
Speaker 2: Give us your read.
18:13
Speaker 12: Well.
18:14
Speaker 4: I think that the polls. One interesting thing about the
18:17
Speaker 4: poles is how uniform they are. They are all saying
18:20
Speaker 4: it's very tight. They're all saying, as you would expect
18:23
Speaker 4: at the beginning of an election campaign, an improvement for
18:26
Speaker 4: the government. This is one of the advantages of incumbency.
18:30
Speaker 4: We've just come off the back of a budget, so yes,
18:33
Speaker 4: you would expect that there would be a lift in
18:37
Speaker 4: support for labor. The Coalition did lose momentum. I think
18:43
Speaker 4: Peter Dutton put a bit of juice back into the
18:46
Speaker 4: tank when he suggested harving petrol excize, so there was
18:50
Speaker 4: a bit of a boost there. Certainly within the Parliamentary
18:54
Speaker 4: Liberal Party there was a bit of a feeling that
18:57
Speaker 4: they had started to get back on track. So I
19:00
Speaker 4: think overall the polls are telling us exactly what we're
19:03
Speaker 4: thought for the last three years, or at least the
19:06
Speaker 4: last eighteen months, and that is the campaign is going
19:09
Speaker 4: to decide the election that people are switched on. That
19:14
Speaker 4: there may be a number of people who have made
19:16
Speaker 4: up their decision, made up their mind, they know who
19:19
Speaker 4: they're going to vote for. So this is going to
19:22
Speaker 4: be a very tight and difficult to predict campaign. I
19:26
Speaker 4: think we've seen them start where you would expect. Anthony
19:29
Speaker 4: Alberanez attacking Peter Dutton at every opportunity and mentioning medicare
19:35
Speaker 4: at every second opportunity, whereas Peter Dutton is pushing on energy,
19:40
Speaker 4: particularly energy prices and gas. So I think all pretty
19:45
Speaker 4: much as we would expect, and it'll be very interesting
19:48
Speaker 4: to see the polls week by week over the next
19:51
Speaker 4: five weeks.
19:54
Speaker 2: Pull apart energy in the moment. But Chris Jyellman, I mean,
19:58
Speaker 2: the budget was only last Tuesday. We're not even a
20:00
Speaker 2: week out from the budget. They spent hundreds of billions
20:04
Speaker 2: of dollars and they haven't even got a dead cat
20:07
Speaker 2: bounce according to news poll. I mean forty six percent
20:10
Speaker 2: of those survey that SE's about half, so they've got
20:13
Speaker 2: no idea of it'll be good for the economy. A
20:15
Speaker 2: lot's say it won't be either, no.
20:19
Speaker 6: Peter, But if you look at the poles, you can
20:21
Speaker 6: say within the margin of era that nothing much has
20:23
Speaker 6: changed since the last election. And I'm told and now
20:25
Speaker 6: in the Albanez's feeling fairly confident and I've thought for
20:27
Speaker 6: a long time the most likely outcome of this election
20:30
Speaker 6: is the minority Labor government. I'll tell you why. Labor
20:33
Speaker 6: only needs to lose one percent across a uniform basis
20:36
Speaker 6: across the country in order to lose its majority. But
20:39
Speaker 6: in order for the Coalition to form a minority government,
20:43
Speaker 6: a minority government, it's got to get a three point
20:46
Speaker 6: five percent swing to it. In order for it to
20:49
Speaker 6: govern in its own right, it's got to getting a
20:50
Speaker 6: swing in excess of five percent. Now, that would be
20:54
Speaker 6: an historically large swing. So I still think, looking at
20:58
Speaker 6: all the polls, the most likely the outcome is a
21:00
Speaker 6: minority labor government.
21:02
Speaker 2: But it's not written.
21:04
Speaker 6: Everyone has said that this campaign is going to be important.
21:06
Speaker 6: I do think that there's a very big soft vote
21:08
Speaker 6: out there, at least that's what the pulses tell us.
21:10
Speaker 6: But I think that the undercurrent of all of this
21:13
Speaker 6: is Trump Predator's presidency. I think that Donald Trump is
21:15
Speaker 6: unsettling the world. People are looking to what's gone wrong
21:18
Speaker 6: with the campaign for the Coalition. I think that incumbents
21:22
Speaker 6: now and particularly we're seeing this in Canada, are doing
21:25
Speaker 6: well out of Trump as the US president.
21:30
Speaker 2: Let's go to the point that he was pushed on
21:32
Speaker 2: today Dennis a Prime minister about entering into a coalition
21:36
Speaker 2: with the Greens. I played that comment a little bit earlier.
21:39
Speaker 2: I mean he's not going to be able to rule
21:41
Speaker 2: it out. It'll come back to haunt him like Gillard's famous.
21:44
Speaker 2: So we know carbon taxon or a government I lead
21:46
Speaker 2: pledge because it's every likelihood on these polls he'll need
21:51
Speaker 2: Adam band to survive.
21:54
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Look the Prime minister's playing with words. It's
21:58
Speaker 4: a bit like before they change the tax saying ehi.
22:01
Speaker 4: There are no plans at this stage. The Prime Minister
22:04
Speaker 4: said today and he said it previously he will not
22:08
Speaker 4: go into a coalition with the Greens. That he's not
22:13
Speaker 4: going to sign an agreement. He's not going to be
22:15
Speaker 4: in partnership with the Greens. But does that mean he's
22:19
Speaker 4: going to refuse to take Green support if he needs
22:23
Speaker 4: Adam Bant to actually become prime minister again? Of course not.
22:28
Speaker 4: And is he going to put the Greens last in
22:33
Speaker 4: the various seats. Of course not, because if he puts
22:37
Speaker 4: the Greens last, labor tends to lose. Now, that doesn't
22:42
Speaker 4: mean he doesn't want to fight the Greens. He's fighting
22:45
Speaker 4: the Greens tooth and nail, particularly in Brisbane, two possibly
22:51
Speaker 4: three seats there Labour wants to get back from the Greens.
22:55
Speaker 4: Melbourne another issue for the Greens, but all of the
23:00
Speaker 4: seats are being played about by various other issues, including
23:05
Speaker 4: Gaza and Palestine, particularly in Melbourne. Also the reaction to
23:11
Speaker 4: the budget. It was strong among stronger amongst younger voters,
23:16
Speaker 4: which you would expect for Labor, but that still doesn't
23:21
Speaker 4: mean that they're going to get a shift from younger voters,
23:24
Speaker 4: from younger Green voters to the Labor Party. So it's
23:28
Speaker 4: all about who can win in particular seats and it's
23:33
Speaker 4: not about nationwide views. The Prime Minister today said, oh no,
23:37
Speaker 4: those pesky preferences. They're not a matter for me. They're
23:41
Speaker 4: a matter for the party organizational wing. The other one's
23:46
Speaker 4: got bells on it PM. So yes, we are going
23:50
Speaker 4: to see a fight, a fight between the Greens and
23:54
Speaker 4: the Labor in particular seats, but ultimately, if it means
23:58
Speaker 4: government and to the Albernes will accept Green votes.
24:06
Speaker 2: I want to underscore the fact that it is it
24:08
Speaker 2: is cost of living in daylight that's turning votes in
24:13
Speaker 2: this election. Campaign, and overwhelmingly the issue on cost of
24:17
Speaker 2: living comes down to power prices because everyone pays them.
24:20
Speaker 2: Everyone pays a power bill and it's a huge input cost,
24:23
Speaker 2: particularly for small business. Let's listen to the Prime Minister
24:26
Speaker 2: now about his own energy modeling and what he said
24:30
Speaker 2: to support that modeling. Not so long ago, our.
24:35
Speaker 3: Energy policy offering us all out there reprotect modeling, was
24:38
Speaker 3: reprotect modeling that they put out our policy.
24:43
Speaker 2: Policy and yeah, eight target.
24:47
Speaker 3: Why are they still your targets? I hope when you
24:51
Speaker 3: get the chance on the on the next, on the
24:55
Speaker 3: next leg where I assume you'll be following around to
25:00
Speaker 3: ask what he's twenty thirty target is. This is the
25:05
Speaker 3: most comprehensive modeling ever done for any policy by any
25:10
Speaker 3: opposition in Australia's history since Federation.
25:17
Speaker 2: Chris yeomen.
25:21
Speaker 6: Well, Peter, Let's get this straight right, Labor commissioned that modeling.
25:27
Speaker 6: That modeling would not exist unless the Labor Party paid
25:31
Speaker 6: for it. It was the basis of its entire energy plan.
25:35
Speaker 6: It's like a father saying, ooh, where did that kiddie
25:38
Speaker 6: come from? And by the way, they clung to the
25:40
Speaker 6: corpse of that policy. As energy prices continue to rise.
25:44
Speaker 6: In twenty twenty two, they continue to say there'd be
25:47
Speaker 6: a two hundred and seventy five dollars cut. In twenty
25:50
Speaker 6: twenty three, they said that there would be a cut
25:53
Speaker 6: in twenty twenty four. They said it. As far as
25:55
Speaker 6: I know, Chris Bowen has never actually repudiated that two
26:00
Speaker 6: hundred and seventy five dollar figure. And as subsidies were applied,
26:04
Speaker 6: they then reversed the argument and said, oh, look, we're
26:08
Speaker 6: taking taxpayers dollars out of your pocket to give back
26:11
Speaker 6: to you. And now guess what electricity prices have fallen.
26:15
Speaker 6: You could not make this stuff up. And the other
26:17
Speaker 6: thing about that modeling was it was dead on arrival.
26:21
Speaker 6: Through the course of twenty twenty one, anyone who knew
26:24
Speaker 6: anything about energy would have been watching the coal price
26:27
Speaker 6: because of course that really matters on what sets the
26:30
Speaker 6: price of electricity, because despite what the government keeps saying,
26:34
Speaker 6: wind and solar the lowest cost electricity generation doesn't set
26:37
Speaker 6: the electricity price. Because it's a marketplace, the fuel cost
26:40
Speaker 6: will always matter. The Labour Party modeling locked in eighty
26:44
Speaker 6: dollars a metric ton, the long run price will guess
26:47
Speaker 6: what by the time the modeling was released, it was
26:48
Speaker 6: at three hundred dollars of a metric ton. By the
26:51
Speaker 6: time the election was called, it was at four hundred
26:54
Speaker 6: dollars a metric tun. It had gone over five hundred
26:56
Speaker 6: dollars by the time the election finished, and yet the
26:59
Speaker 6: Labour already said that it would be delivered. So I
27:02
Speaker 6: don't know how you begin to describe something when you
27:05
Speaker 6: get to this point. You can say something's a spin,
27:08
Speaker 6: but I think you need to use a whole other
27:09
Speaker 6: description about continuing to cling to a policy. And then,
27:13
Speaker 6: by the way, rebasing things to a subsidy is an
27:17
Speaker 6: electricity price cut. When you do it for years.
27:22
Speaker 2: It's damning. I'll tell you what just before we go,
27:25
Speaker 2: Dennis Shanahan campaign number, how many for you? What number
27:29
Speaker 2: of federal campaign is this for you?
27:33
Speaker 4: Well, it's thirteen on the trot for the OS, but
27:37
Speaker 4: I did do a couple of others when I had
27:39
Speaker 4: Another life, so it's probably about fourteen or fifteen, and
27:45
Speaker 4: Chris Yeoman.
27:49
Speaker 6: I've been doing them every year since two thousand and six.
27:52
Speaker 6: But like Dennis in Another life back in the nineteen
27:55
Speaker 6: nineties for the Cambra time, I followed a few then,
27:57
Speaker 6: so you know, I'll have to sit down and add
27:59
Speaker 6: things up because wouldn't want to be accused of making
28:01
Speaker 6: up numbers.
28:02
Speaker 9: Peter.
28:05
Speaker 2: I just were underscore that point from my viewers at
28:07
Speaker 2: home that you two gentlemen have got the runs on
28:09
Speaker 2: the board. You know what you're talking about. Thank you
28:11
Speaker 2: for joining me tonight, all right after brat Chris Bowen
28:13
Speaker 2: a massive drag as we know on Labour's vote. Is
28:16
Speaker 2: that why he's nowhere to be seen as the energy
28:19
Speaker 2: wars heat up? Plus will go live to the Coalition
28:22
Speaker 2: HQ for the first exclusive update out of their political
28:26
Speaker 2: war room in Paramatta. Welcome back, still to come another
28:34
Speaker 2: alleged incident with one of Labour's freed at foreign criminals,
28:37
Speaker 2: and live to the Coalition's Liberal Party HQ. But first,
28:42
Speaker 2: Australia's largest steelmaker, blue Scope, has back Peter Dutton's election
28:45
Speaker 2: planned to bring down gas prices, energy of courses. You've
28:49
Speaker 2: heard me say, central to this campaign and it's a
28:52
Speaker 2: big vote. De side of a households and small business
28:55
Speaker 2: joining me now, Director of Energy Research at the Center
28:58
Speaker 2: for Independent Studies, Aid Morrison, and thanks for your time.
29:03
Speaker 2: In addition to blue Scope, we've got manufacturing Australia saying
29:06
Speaker 2: that the coalition's gas market reforms are in the national interest.
29:10
Speaker 2: But interestingly, Squadron Energy, which is owned by Andrew forres Well,
29:16
Speaker 2: they say it's a waste of money. I think Twiggy
29:18
Speaker 2: himself he has got egg on his face over green hydrogen.
29:22
Speaker 2: What's your thoughts here?
29:25
Speaker 9: Twiggy certainly would say that it's a waste of money. Unfortunately,
29:28
Speaker 9: it's about to be his money that gets wasted because
29:30
Speaker 9: he's committed to the idea that we need to import gas.
29:33
Speaker 9: He's building a gas import terminal at Port Kembler, and
29:38
Speaker 9: that's the idea behind that is essentially you get Australia
29:41
Speaker 9: committed to buying expensive imported gas because when gas is
29:45
Speaker 9: high cost, and it has to be when you import
29:46
Speaker 9: it because you have to liquefy it and then regasify
29:49
Speaker 9: it again. It's never cheap gas when you import gas.
29:52
Speaker 9: So it makes his wind farms look a whole lot better.
29:55
Speaker 9: It also in all the electricity modeling that supports the
29:58
Speaker 9: investment in transmission line it makes them look a lot
30:01
Speaker 9: better too. So it puts a huge amount of wind
30:03
Speaker 9: in the sales of all the investment in wind farms
30:06
Speaker 9: and also the regulatory assets like transmission to support them.
30:10
Speaker 9: So no surprises at all, and that's what Twiggy thinks,
30:13
Speaker 9: because he's committed to try to get Australia hooked onto
30:16
Speaker 9: imported gas, which will be expensive gas in the long term.
30:21
Speaker 2: This has always been my problem for about fifteen years
30:24
Speaker 2: with policy in this area aid and going all the
30:26
Speaker 2: way back to Rudd's CPRS. You know, the first iteration
30:30
Speaker 2: of the carbon tax way back in two thousand and
30:32
Speaker 2: nine is that there are a whole lot of grifters
30:35
Speaker 2: and rent seekers and those with a first mover advantage
30:39
Speaker 2: who have all backed the renewable energy train of wind
30:43
Speaker 2: and solar in particular. Right, So Peter Dutton coming in
30:47
Speaker 2: and upending things with both gas reform but most particularly
30:51
Speaker 2: at nuclear power, that blows apart their finance model. It
30:57
Speaker 2: blows apart their money making machine about what they think
31:00
Speaker 2: is in Australia's best interest. It's about how much they
31:03
Speaker 2: stand to gain from the status quo.
31:08
Speaker 9: That's exactly right, and I don't think there's any sensible
31:10
Speaker 9: way of really overstating that. At the moment, a lot
31:13
Speaker 9: is being made of there being some sort of huge
31:15
Speaker 9: pipeline this kind of massive amount of market interest in
31:18
Speaker 9: investing in renewable energy. That is quite simply not true
31:22
Speaker 9: at the moment. There is just no private interest in
31:24
Speaker 9: backing any sort of renewable energy development on its own
31:27
Speaker 9: two feet. You can see any example that you want.
31:30
Speaker 9: I can't find a single example of a major investment
31:33
Speaker 9: decision that's being made without some sort of underwriting from
31:36
Speaker 9: a federal or state government. And you can take the
31:38
Speaker 9: biggest one, the value of the winds wind farm in
31:42
Speaker 9: the central West Irana res. It's going to have all
31:44
Speaker 9: its transmission lines built right out to it. It's a
31:46
Speaker 9: massive nine hundred megawat bohemoth. Still a massive subsidy from
31:50
Speaker 9: the capacity investment scheme. We don't know exactly how much
31:52
Speaker 9: it allowed up to. But it can't get private backing
31:55
Speaker 9: on its own as well, So there is really no
31:56
Speaker 9: such thing as any private capital. It is all being
31:59
Speaker 9: pushed through subsidies at the moment. It is just the
32:02
Speaker 9: dawn of the era of forever subsidies. There is not
32:05
Speaker 9: a completely competitive, any sort of competitive market investment that's
32:09
Speaker 9: driving this a long It's all being driven by government
32:11
Speaker 9: policy at the moment. But there are plenty of companies
32:13
Speaker 9: who are willing to line up in the queue for
32:15
Speaker 9: subsidies and handouts.
32:18
Speaker 2: You are not wrong. I'll come make to batteries a
32:20
Speaker 2: bit later in the show. Thanks Aiden. Now the Coalition HQ,
32:23
Speaker 2: it's in the seat of paramount this time, so with
32:25
Speaker 2: the Edge suburbs of Sydney, we'll go there every Monday night.
32:29
Speaker 2: Now we're in the campaign proper and we'll catch up
32:31
Speaker 2: with the Shadow Home Affairs Minister James Patterson, who's also
32:34
Speaker 2: now been named as official Coalition headquarters campaign spokesman. Well, Senator,
32:39
Speaker 2: you are in the war room. I'm delighted to across
32:43
Speaker 2: to you there tonight. Part of me whish is I
32:45
Speaker 2: was in there amongst it all, But of course now
32:47
Speaker 2: I've got a different role as do you. In this
32:50
Speaker 2: campaign news poll. There'll be a lot of lives out
32:53
Speaker 2: there scratching their heads today thinking you've had a sluggish start.
32:57
Speaker 2: What would you say to them.
33:00
Speaker 13: You've seen a few of these campaigns yourself, and you
33:02
Speaker 13: know that these polls go up and down. But actually
33:05
Speaker 13: to be at the start of the campaign, to be
33:07
Speaker 13: roughly fifty to fifty in the polls with an incumbent
33:10
Speaker 13: government in its first term is a remarkable achievement and
33:14
Speaker 13: it shows that this election is up for grabs, that
33:16
Speaker 13: we can win this election, but we must win the
33:19
Speaker 13: campaign and it requires us to get our message out,
33:21
Speaker 13: our positive message for making Australia a more prosperous and
33:25
Speaker 13: secure country, but also reminding Australians of what they've experienced
33:28
Speaker 13: under the Albanezi government over the last three years. The
33:31
Speaker 13: worst loss in living standards in Australian history, the worst
33:35
Speaker 13: loss of living standards in the developed world since the
33:38
Speaker 13: end of the pandemic. And can Australians really afford another
33:41
Speaker 13: three years like that? We don't think they can. We
33:43
Speaker 13: think we've got a better way.
33:47
Speaker 2: Talk to me about fighting the dog. I think coalition
33:49
Speaker 2: and supporters want to know that you will fight down
33:53
Speaker 2: to every vote, that you will pursue every seat. How's
33:59
Speaker 2: this sort of feeling in CCHQ. What's coming into you
34:03
Speaker 2: about the target seats? Is that the case?
34:07
Speaker 13: Well, we've got a very ambitious target seat list at
34:10
Speaker 13: this election, and every month more seats get added to
34:14
Speaker 13: that list based on data, based on evidence, particularly in
34:17
Speaker 13: our home state of Victoria Peter where seats we never
34:20
Speaker 13: dreamed of being competitive in are coming on the target
34:23
Speaker 13: seat list, and we hear intelligence from the Labor side
34:27
Speaker 13: that they keep adding seats to their defensive key seat list,
34:30
Speaker 13: seats they've always held and never worried about before and
34:33
Speaker 13: probably took for granted. They're now doubling down and you
34:36
Speaker 13: can see evidence of that on the social media pages
34:38
Speaker 13: of some Labor MPs who are pretty low energy and
34:41
Speaker 13: their approach their electorates in the part. So all of
34:43
Speaker 13: a sudden turning up to the opening of a car door,
34:45
Speaker 13: and that tells you everything you need to know about
34:47
Speaker 13: where this fight will be and where seats are that
34:50
Speaker 13: we can win.
34:53
Speaker 2: Talk to me about what's happened over the weekend. A
34:55
Speaker 2: man was shot by police in Melbourne. He's a former
34:58
Speaker 2: immigration detainee, one of Labour's released foreign criminals. He's been
35:03
Speaker 2: out on bail. He was released after that High Court ruling.
35:07
Speaker 2: I thought you gave a government legislation that it said
35:10
Speaker 2: it needed well over a year ago now to deal
35:13
Speaker 2: with this.
35:16
Speaker 13: You're absolutely right, Peter. That's exactly what the Parliament did
35:19
Speaker 13: at the coalition's urging sixteen months ago. We passed a
35:23
Speaker 13: preventative Detention Order regime which allowed the government to apply
35:27
Speaker 13: to the courts to take people off the streets who
35:29
Speaker 13: are a risked to community safety from this cohort. Now,
35:32
Speaker 13: this person was apparently on bail, had apparently been bailed
35:37
Speaker 13: five times according to reporting in the Herald Sun today,
35:41
Speaker 13: and is exactly the case study of someone who should
35:43
Speaker 13: have been off the streets thanks to a preventive detention order.
35:46
Speaker 13: But neither Tony Burke nor any of his predecessors have
35:49
Speaker 13: got on their skates and got any of these applications
35:52
Speaker 13: into the court. And so all of the three hundred
35:54
Speaker 13: of these people released in the community are free in
35:57
Speaker 13: the community and reoffending at an extraord rate. Over one
36:01
Speaker 13: hundred of them have been charged with new offenses since
36:03
Speaker 13: they were released from immigration detention.
36:08
Speaker 2: Just quickly. I mean, the Chinese call it a research vessel.
36:11
Speaker 2: You and I would call it a spy ship. There's
36:13
Speaker 2: no doubt about that it's circling southern Australia. When he
36:17
Speaker 2: was asked about it today, and the risk is that
36:19
Speaker 2: it's going to track our deep sea submarine cables and
36:22
Speaker 2: other things. When asked about it today, the Prime Minister
36:25
Speaker 2: was pretty sanguine about the whole thing, pretty relaxed about it. James.
36:28
Speaker 2: Should he be relaxed.
36:32
Speaker 13: No, he shouldn't be. It was a flippant and dismissive
36:34
Speaker 13: response from the Prime Minister, and one which slurred the
36:36
Speaker 13: professionalism of the men and the women of the Australian
36:39
Speaker 13: Defense Force. He compared what this vessel was doing in
36:42
Speaker 13: our waters, our exclusive economic zone, but also apparently our
36:46
Speaker 13: territorial waters, according to reporting from Andrew Green from the
36:48
Speaker 13: ABC tonight, to what we do in the South China Sea. Now,
36:52
Speaker 13: no Australian vessel is engaging in deep seabed examination in
36:57
Speaker 13: the territorial waters off the coast of China. We don't
37:00
Speaker 13: even have these sorts of vessels, So to compare the
37:02
Speaker 13: two was a false moral equivalence and a slur on
37:05
Speaker 13: the men and women of the ADF, and he should
37:06
Speaker 13: retract that and apologize, and frankly he should get across
37:09
Speaker 13: the detail. I think from his answer today that he
37:12
Speaker 13: had no idea what he was talking about, because he
37:14
Speaker 13: has no natural instinct or interest in national security. And
37:18
Speaker 13: it really shows.
37:20
Speaker 2: I suspect now that we've got caretaker conventions, you'll be
37:23
Speaker 2: getting the briefing that the Prime Minister clearly has not had.
37:26
Speaker 2: James Patterson. Thank you. We'll check in with you next week.
37:29
Speaker 2: After the break, we'll look at the PM and how
37:31
Speaker 2: he needs the popularity of a whole lot of other
37:34
Speaker 2: leaders on the campaign trail to survive. He's disappearing from
37:38
Speaker 2: all the posters we'll get today and we'll see to
37:40
Speaker 2: this rise in activist disrupting campaigns. How's it going to
37:44
Speaker 2: impact campaign twenty twenty five? After the break, welcome back
37:53
Speaker 2: to former labor EMPs have launched a campaign in a
37:56
Speaker 2: labor seat. One of those MP's will join me a
37:58
Speaker 2: little later to explain why. But firstlet's bringing my panel
38:01
Speaker 2: a whole lot to get through l and P Senatay
38:03
Speaker 2: James McGrath and Pauline Hansen's chief of staff James Ashby. Gents.
38:08
Speaker 2: Peter Dutton has ruled out any sort of referendum to
38:11
Speaker 2: recognize Indigenous Australians in the constitution. Now this is pretty interesting,
38:16
Speaker 2: James McGraw, I didn't look at this byline in the budget.
38:20
Speaker 2: I'll go back and have a look at it tonight,
38:21
Speaker 2: but I reckon anything that smacks of a voice mark two.
38:25
Speaker 2: Even truth Telling Treaty is a whole box and Dice,
38:29
Speaker 2: surely that's got to be dead now and where's Labor
38:32
Speaker 2: on this?
38:34
Speaker 1: Well know where labor is. I put similar questions to
38:37
Speaker 1: Penny Wong and estimates last week Senator Wong refused to
38:41
Speaker 1: rule out a treaty. Senator Wong skirted around why money
38:48
Speaker 1: was in the budget for truth telling and still for
38:52
Speaker 1: the treaty process. This is something Labor if they win
38:56
Speaker 1: the election as part of a minority government, it will
38:59
Speaker 1: come in because this is what the Greens want. You're
39:02
Speaker 1: not going to have a treaty or anything like that
39:05
Speaker 1: under the coalition, but under later and Greens, mark my words,
39:10
Speaker 1: treaty will be coming into the Parliament.
39:14
Speaker 2: All right, Well, respectfully, I know you're listening to internally.
39:17
Speaker 2: You got to bang the drama and make sure that's
39:19
Speaker 2: out there as part of your campaign. Let's go to
39:22
Speaker 2: the PM in Wa today, James Ashby. He was alongside
39:26
Speaker 2: the Premier there, very popular premier just returned Roger Cook.
39:30
Speaker 2: I don't reckon, we'll see you in Wa standing next
39:32
Speaker 2: to anyone other than Cook. I had to say, you know,
39:36
Speaker 2: when I looked at him last week in budget week
39:38
Speaker 2: standing next to the Premier of Queensland, David Christaph Fooley.
39:42
Speaker 2: That was deliberate too, we learned today from Redbridge Pole
39:45
Speaker 2: and Chris of fully is the most popular leader in
39:48
Speaker 2: the country. But I was in Adelaide over the weekend
39:51
Speaker 2: the seat of Boothby currently held by Labor, being fought
39:54
Speaker 2: for by my old nate Nicole Flint. She drew this
39:57
Speaker 2: to my attention in a wa Sorry in South Australia,
40:02
Speaker 2: in the seat of Boothby, it's Melanowskis everywhere you can
40:06
Speaker 2: see that there's no Anthony Albuneasy on any of their
40:10
Speaker 2: posters or anything else. Does this surprise you? What does
40:13
Speaker 2: it tell you?
40:16
Speaker 14: Yeah, look, he's not the most popular of prime ministers.
40:19
Speaker 14: He's only hanging in there by a thread to government
40:22
Speaker 14: at this moment. And look it's not just the leaders
40:26
Speaker 14: it's the color red as well. If you have a
40:27
Speaker 14: look at Tenure Plebi six cor flutes, they're purple. If
40:32
Speaker 14: you have a look at Chris, you know the halfway bowen,
40:36
Speaker 14: his cor flutes are orange. They're moving away from the
40:40
Speaker 14: typical or traditional labor colors. So Labor are on the
40:44
Speaker 14: nose in particular seats, not just the leadership, but the
40:48
Speaker 14: color red. So watch this space over the next couple
40:52
Speaker 14: of weeks. There's going to be some real trickery there,
40:54
Speaker 14: you know, tenure plebi sect might be using purple to
40:57
Speaker 14: sort of confuse the messaging when it comes to the
40:59
Speaker 14: Electoral Commission, as we've seen in previous selections. But for
41:02
Speaker 14: Chris Baron to go down the one nation color of
41:05
Speaker 14: orange says something as well. So you watch that space. Yeah,
41:10
Speaker 14: no one likes the leader of the Labor Party, so
41:13
Speaker 14: I'm not surprised. Paul Enhanson's welcome on all the core
41:16
Speaker 14: flutes of our candidates, so no surprise there.
41:18
Speaker 2: They Let's go to a feature we're already seeing in
41:23
Speaker 2: this campaign. James McGrath. We saw on Saturday to Rising
41:26
Speaker 2: Tides activists crash Peter Dutton's campaign events, both of them
41:30
Speaker 2: the PM two also heckled in a press conference. I mean,
41:34
Speaker 2: I think this is dangerous to democracy. I think it'll
41:36
Speaker 2: radically change how our MP's, our leaders in particular campaign.
41:41
Speaker 2: It'll make things much more controlled, It'll make them much
41:45
Speaker 2: more risk adverse.
41:48
Speaker 1: I agree, and why we should always support freedom of speech.
41:51
Speaker 1: These activists it's not about freedom of speech for them,
41:54
Speaker 1: it is about suppressing the freedom of speech of the
41:57
Speaker 1: politicians and of normalists. Rallians who want to speak to
42:01
Speaker 1: and listen to the politicians because actually want to make
42:03
Speaker 1: an informed decision. I am very worried about the personal
42:08
Speaker 1: safety of my fellow colleagues. Look at Peter Dutton, who
42:12
Speaker 1: still as leaderly Opposition following on from his time as
42:16
Speaker 1: a minister, still has very serious security because of the
42:20
Speaker 1: threats made to his life. And now we've got these
42:23
Speaker 1: people who want to come along. They're rap bags. They're
42:26
Speaker 1: in my view, they are un Australian because they're selfish
42:30
Speaker 1: rats and we should call them out. But we do
42:32
Speaker 1: not want politicians being locked up in some type of
42:34
Speaker 1: a coon like you see in American presidential elections. It'll
42:37
Speaker 1: be bad for our democracy.
42:41
Speaker 2: Look, this is why Nicole Flint left the Parliament. But
42:43
Speaker 2: she's going to stare them down and have another go
42:45
Speaker 2: and I hope as a close friend she gets there.
42:47
Speaker 2: We're also seeing the activists, particularly the pro Palestinians, restart
42:51
Speaker 2: their campaigns. James Ashby, those demonstrations are back every Sunday
42:55
Speaker 2: in Melbourne. I hate to admit, we've got Green's candidates
43:00
Speaker 2: declaring their support for Palestine. We've got obviously this Muslim
43:03
Speaker 2: vote movement. I mean, I think this is a huge
43:07
Speaker 2: turning point for Australia, isn't it.
43:10
Speaker 14: Well, look who that post a child is in Today's
43:13
Speaker 14: Australian when they did the report. A bloke who's up
43:15
Speaker 14: on charges for kidnapping and assault with a hammer. You know,
43:21
Speaker 14: that's not the kind of person I want out in
43:24
Speaker 14: demonstration for the safety and security of other Australians who
43:29
Speaker 14: don't want to see this on the street. By the way,
43:31
Speaker 14: I think we're over the Palestinian protests, so yeah, look,
43:34
Speaker 14: the Greens have got a lot to answer for. Just
43:37
Speaker 14: have a close look at who they're aligning themselves with.
43:41
Speaker 14: Just on that point, have you ever noticed there's no
43:43
Speaker 14: protesters at Greens announcements, not one, you know, So it's
43:47
Speaker 14: always the radical left that you've got to watch in
43:50
Speaker 14: this country, especially in this election campaign.
43:55
Speaker 2: You two are my good campaigners on the ground, so
43:57
Speaker 2: I am hoping as you're both getting around the country, yeah,
44:00
Speaker 2: picking up collateral for me. You're photographing things I need
44:03
Speaker 2: to look at and I can bring to my viewers
44:05
Speaker 2: here every Monday night during the campaign. You're my foot
44:07
Speaker 2: soldier's gents, look forward to whatever you might send my way.
44:10
Speaker 2: Good luck with the campaign. All right, after the break,
44:13
Speaker 2: former Labor MP breaks cover in this election about to
44:17
Speaker 2: launch a campaign that's going to upset many of his
44:19
Speaker 2: former colleagues. He'll explain why he's doing it after the break.
44:23
Speaker 2: Plus ever of the Australian Multicultural Council under fire over
44:26
Speaker 2: anti Israel social posts. Welcome back. My next guest is
44:36
Speaker 2: Michael Danby and he has joined another former Labor MP,
44:39
Speaker 2: Tony Lovedon, in launching a campaign urging Labor voters in
44:43
Speaker 2: the seat of McNamara. This is the old Melbourne Ports
44:45
Speaker 2: Danby's old seat to put the Greens last. They've raised
44:49
Speaker 2: concerns that the Greens have become an extremist political party
44:52
Speaker 2: which has voted against most counter terrorism bills since nine
44:56
Speaker 2: to eleven.
44:58
Speaker 15: We know that the Greens have becoming streams party and
45:01
Speaker 15: there's staking anti semitism and social division. Anyone who wants
45:05
Speaker 15: the Greens to lose needs to understand that Josh Burns
45:09
Speaker 15: has to pull more votes than them, otherwise the Greens
45:11
Speaker 15: will win on preferences. So it's important for people to
45:15
Speaker 15: vote for Josh Burns and put the Greens last.
45:20
Speaker 2: We'll get into a moment some of the issues with
45:22
Speaker 2: preferenial voting in that set in particular. But it's a
45:25
Speaker 2: big deal for you to break cover like this and
45:28
Speaker 2: to speak publicly about your concerns about where Labor and
45:32
Speaker 2: the Greens are headed on some of this stuff. Why
45:34
Speaker 2: have you done it, Michael Oh?
45:35
Speaker 12: Because it's a matter of principle and ethics. I couldn't
45:38
Speaker 12: imagine the Green Party representing Melbourne Portz. They've become an
45:41
Speaker 12: extremist party and we have to point that out to voters.
45:44
Speaker 12: I mean that excellent, And if I say so myself,
45:47
Speaker 12: of pointing out their record since nine to eleven of
45:50
Speaker 12: voting against every national security legislation, voters don't know that,
45:55
Speaker 12: and if they did, I think they reinforce their view
45:58
Speaker 12: that under at the grim Adam Band the Greens have
46:01
Speaker 12: become an extremist party. Is Tony Lupton successfully campaigned in Paran?
46:05
Speaker 2: We know the seat's got a significant Jewish population in it.
46:08
Speaker 2: I mean, how on earth? I don't think it'll be
46:11
Speaker 2: the Jews. It will vote for the Greens, potentially even Labor.
46:14
Speaker 2: But how could it get so tight in this seat?
46:16
Speaker 12: Well, there's some of the polling shows that Labour could
46:19
Speaker 12: run third if Labour runs third and is eliminated. You know,
46:23
Speaker 12: under the preferential system, the current socialist left arrangement all
46:27
Speaker 12: around Australia, which Elbow should veto has his rhetoric indicates,
46:34
Speaker 12: will put the Greens ahead of the Liberals, and we say, no,
46:38
Speaker 12: don't do that, voter.
46:39
Speaker 2: Let me just pull that apart so people at home
46:40
Speaker 2: can follow you. So you've got let's say the Libs
46:43
Speaker 2: come in first but not enough to win in their
46:44
Speaker 2: own right, then comes the Greens and then comes Labor.
46:49
Speaker 2: Labour get eliminated, their preferences get distributed. Now for those
46:53
Speaker 2: people who think independently, they might not put the Greens
46:56
Speaker 2: number two. But if they've just followed Labors how to
46:58
Speaker 2: vote card and they do those preferences that they obviously
47:04
Speaker 2: I've got a primary vote first Labor, their preferences will
47:07
Speaker 2: then flow to the Greens and that could mean the
47:09
Speaker 2: Greens leap frog and get the seats.
47:12
Speaker 12: That's what you say, that's obviously the danger. That's completely correct, Peter,
47:15
Speaker 12: And you know that's an unconscionable thing for middle of
47:19
Speaker 12: the road voters, either Liberal or Labor. In McNamara, my
47:23
Speaker 12: old seat in Melvin puts we don't want the Greens
47:25
Speaker 12: and we want to point out their record. They should
47:27
Speaker 12: be defeated on the basis of people knowing what they
47:30
Speaker 12: stand for.
47:31
Speaker 2: But over the weekend we've heard all these labor ministers.
47:34
Speaker 2: We've heard even the Prime Minister say, you know we're
47:36
Speaker 2: fighting against the Greens. I fought Greens, you know, my
47:39
Speaker 2: whole political life in my seat. If he really is
47:45
Speaker 2: fighting the Greens, why give the Greens labor preferences?
47:49
Speaker 12: Well, the point of the spear is exactly that, don't
47:51
Speaker 12: give them preferences. Do you think Green voters wouldn't vote
47:55
Speaker 12: give their preferences to labor if labor preference against the
47:59
Speaker 12: Greens in some seats, of course they are uplift of
48:02
Speaker 12: center voters. You know, the old Green Party used to
48:05
Speaker 12: stand for Koala's and opposition to air pollution. I'm in
48:09
Speaker 12: favor of that too. Their voters won't vote against labor.
48:12
Speaker 12: If Albo had the courage to tell people around the country,
48:16
Speaker 12: don't give your preferences to the Greens, just.
48:19
Speaker 2: Quickly we had nine over the weekend reported in the
48:23
Speaker 2: papers today in Australian Multicultural Council member has been caught
48:28
Speaker 2: out with pretty horrific anti Israel posts since pulled them down.
48:32
Speaker 2: But what does that say to you?
48:34
Speaker 12: Well, there's also a bloke from Climate two thousand who's
48:36
Speaker 12: call for a boycott of Israel. I mean that bloke Walsh,
48:39
Speaker 12: he should be chucked out of that. Zoe Daniel's got
48:42
Speaker 12: seven hundred thousand dollars from Climate two thousand, Peter, do
48:45
Speaker 12: you reckon she's not going to listen to the bloke
48:47
Speaker 12: who gave her all of that money. I mean, really,
48:50
Speaker 12: Climbate two thousand and the teals their one identity, And
48:55
Speaker 12: I'd be very worrying if you're in a political party.
48:57
Speaker 12: Where were the people who are giving out the dough,
49:00
Speaker 12: calling for a boycott of Israel and other anti Israel
49:03
Speaker 12: measures sim in homes. The court should take some action
49:06
Speaker 12: against that people.
49:07
Speaker 2: And of course it's got the law be power broken
49:09
Speaker 2: if of course they are.
49:10
Speaker 12: You know, it's really a political party, a clandestine one.
49:14
Speaker 2: Thanks for your help tonight getting all of that out there.
49:16
Speaker 2: All right, that's it for me. You see tomorrow night
49:18
Speaker 2: at six big election campaign. Don't miss it. Here on Kredline,
49:21
Speaker 2: here's Andrew