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Crash Cancelled?📉Tariff Reversal Signals Crypto Bottom · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Have tariffs been canceled and how does this affect the
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: crypto market today, we'll break it down for you. My
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: name is Paul Berre. Welcome back in the tech path.
• 0:14
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  Speaker 1: and you guys can of course use our discount. Let's
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: get into it today. I do want to thank I
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: do want to get into a couple of points here.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: One is, of course, what President Trump stated over the weekend,
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: and that is that they are exempting smartphones, computers, and
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: chips from these new tariffs. That includes Apple is going
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: to be exempt.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: So everybody that was.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Worried about your Apple iPhone Apparently that is going to
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: be one that is going to hold. Another thing that
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: is going on after Trump threatened new tariffs on smartphones
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: the days after exempting them, we are seeing a couple
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: of kind of double scenarios playing into this. China has
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: called Donald Trump to completely cancel his tariffs regime, return
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: to the right path mutual respect, US officials said, signing
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: that products would be subject to semiconductor tariff instead. This
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: reveals more details later. Most likely this could be you know,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: tariffs on you know, different kind of electronic goods that
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: are going to be coming in and then reports about
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: the false uh notice is false. Instead what they said,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: they're just moving to a different tariff bucket. So the
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: point being is that there's a lot of confusion here
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: of what this is going to look like because of
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: the in most cases very detailed supply chain that exist
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: within China on a lot of manufacturers out there. So
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: it is still up in the air as to what
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: the actual aff effect is going to be. One thing
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: you can count on though right now, is in Nvidia
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: starting to move a lot more of their AI development
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: here to the US. Another five hundred billion investment plan
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: to build and expand AI infrastructure here in.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: The United States.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Most likely that's going to be data centers, but there
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: could be some development and even manufacturing that could go
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: along with that. Other things that you got to look
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: at is that Trump is starting to starting negotiations right now,
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: and the EU is one of the biggest trading partners
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: out there. And what Trump is saying is that the
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: EU has come forward to negotiate a.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: New trade deal.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So if you agree with his tactics or not, the
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: key is is are we starting to see these countries
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: coming to the trading table.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: That I think is what has given the market a
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: little bit of a reprieve.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Now, how long does this last? As a real question?
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Here's a clip to kind of talk about. Still there
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: is a bit of confusion.
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: Take a look, as you guys said, and as you
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: can see on your screen here all now exempt from
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: the one hundred and twenty five percent so called reciprocal
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: tariff on imports from China. They are those still subject
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: to the twenty percent tariff imposed over fetinal concerns earlier
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: in the term. But administration officials have spent two days
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: now essentially saying not to read too much into these exemptions.
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: The sense that I got is that the White House
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: is not looking at a separate investigation on those items.
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: They would have to, for example, launch an investigation saying
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: that iPhones are a threat to national security and then
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: imposing tariff specifically on iPhones or smartphones more broadly. That
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: does not seem to be in the cards at this point.
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: But what they are saying is that this broader two
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: thirty two investigation, as it's called, into semiconductors could ultimately
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: lump in some users of semiconductors, and that could include
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: smartphones and laptops and other things that semiconductors are put into.
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: It's not definite yet, but that's possible that that's an
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: impact of that study. I'll also caution though, that we're
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: still a few steps away from this. The White House
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: and the Commerce Department specifically will have to formally launch
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: an investigation, notify Congress, have a public comment period, and
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: then rule that they are imposing tariffs. So we're still
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: a few steps away from that.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: So, as you can see, the media is still reporting
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: that it doesn't know what is going on. The White
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: House has not made these final assessments as part of
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: the new rule or regime of how this is going
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: to play out. So it is still uncertain to where
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: this will go. Now, there are some key areas that
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: have to be protected with and around these tariffs. One
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: of the things that they broke down in the all
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: inpod was what those are and what they could have
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: in terms of an impact here in the United States.
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: There are supply chains that have many single points of failure.
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: I would say that we need to measure and protect
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: four critical areas. Number one is all of the technology
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: built the chips as well as the enabling technology around
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: artificial intelligence. It must be a robust, largely American supply chain.
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: It must you cannot have single points of failure outside
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: the United States because what you see is even in
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: Allied countries, their posture towards things like free speech and
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: other things can ebb and flow, their posture on trade,
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: their posture on defense. Number two is energy. We have
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: a critical deficit of electrons in America. We do not
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: have the capability we need to make the energy we
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: need quickly in many ways. Number three are there are
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: critical material inputs that drive the material science of the future.
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: Rare earths are an example, going back to chips, things
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: like gallium, and then the fourth ezra are pharma APIs
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: so that when American citizens get sick, we have the
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: ability to not just make it, but also design it
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: and manufacture it all.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Right, So you can kind of see Tramath kind of
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: breaking down some of the key areas that have to
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: be kind of protected around a lot of what's going
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: on with these two. As the COBEC letter just stated
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: right here that China has officially halted shipment sawn several
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: rare earth minerals to the US. This, of course, we'll
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: get into more of the things that happened behind the
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: rare earth minerals, and that is more of the processing. This,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: of course is raw materials. China is one of those suppliers.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Granted you've done a little bit of research on this
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: in the sense that there are others out there. So
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: the question is how much of an impact will that
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: have on the US.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: What will have an impact right now is how the
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Chinese government is starting to lift the secrecy around a
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: lot of the luxury brands that are manufactured in China.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: Here's a good example of this.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: This in of course, this is running rampant right now on TikTok,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: But they are out there essentially throwing these luxury brands
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: under the bus and exposing their entire supply chain, the
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: process of how they manufacture all of that, getting to
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: the point where these luxury brands may end up seeing
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: some challenges going forward. Further into that, you look at
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: where the dollar is holding right now. The Dixie, of
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: course is now plunging now eight percent year to date.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: This has been a big factor also that I think
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: has pushed a little bit more into gold and also
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: into bitcoin, which is why we're starting to see a
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: little bit of that action over the last few days.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Let me go to another clip, because this is where
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Tom Lee is talking about the US and is this
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: still the hub of innovation take a look in.
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: The near term.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: It is a it's a roller coaster.
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: I mean, it does feel like we're having a lot
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: of zigs and zacs and even over the weekend. But
• 7:35
  Speaker 5: to me, I think everything that happened over the weekend,
• 7:38
  Speaker 5: including the Sunday further explanations, all of this is still
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: unequivocally positive for stocks.
• 7:45
  Speaker 6: It doesn't need to be if people just abandon the
• 7:48
  Speaker 6: dollar and abandon the United States to invest in. It's
• 7:51
  Speaker 6: just on the margin because it's a given that you
• 7:54
  Speaker 6: cannot ignore.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: The United States is the elephant in the room globally. Yeah,
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: I agree.
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: I think I think that is the narra at the
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: moment that you know, US exceptionalism's over and people are
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: selling treasuries and dollars to buy other assets. But I'm
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: not in that camp that it's sustainable because unless weaker
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: dollar and higher yield suddenly makes the best companies.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: In the world outside the US.
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: You know, the best and the most important companies in
• 8:21
  Speaker 5: the world are American companies. They've produced the best shareholder returns.
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: And you know, if you look at the SMP, forty
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: percent of the returns of the SMP come from new
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: companies every ten years. Is they're going to be suddenly
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: the best new company coming out of Europe instead of
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: the US because of the dollar, And I doubt it,
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: and I think US companies are going to adapt.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: So his point, and I would agree, is that to
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: repopulate the world's economic framework around where the best companies are,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: where the best innovation is, it would take decades decades literally,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: and of course you'd still have to change a lot
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: of the regulatory efforts, especially if you look at the alone,
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: to be able to allow companies like that to even exist.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: And what I'm talking about primarily is the innovation around
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Silicon Valley, but also what we're seeing in a lot
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: of new innovation companies around the United States, and that's
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: including AI, blockchain of course, all of those leading into.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Where the future is still US based. Now.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: If you look at COBEC, market bearishness is now at
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: historic levels. In the weekending last week, fifty eight percent
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: of investable investors express barrish stock market sentiment over the
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: next six months. And I guess that's the question right
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: now is how long does this hold out and can
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: the S and P hold with it? Because remember, as
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: the S and P starts to slide, what we're finding
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: is that is when liquidity starts to look for new homes,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: and whether it is cash, whether it is going into
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: now alternative assets, especially if you look at even gold, bitcoin, silver, etc.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Many of those are still continuing to fly right now
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: in terms of performance. Another one I want to go
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: into is where Morgan Stanley goes into the fact that
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: this might be the worst of where this momentum is
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: going take a look.
• 10:10
  Speaker 6: You know, we're you know, we're in a bear market.
• 10:12
  Speaker 6: I think it started a lot earlier than people are
• 10:15
  Speaker 6: suggesting before the TIFFs. Oh yeah, I think it started
• 10:17
  Speaker 6: last summer. We had a big rally into year end,
• 10:19
  Speaker 6: but then we just got overcooked. And like our main
• 10:22
  Speaker 6: message to clients right now is, first of all, you know,
• 10:24
  Speaker 6: we're not focused on twelve month targets. We're focused on
• 10:26
  Speaker 6: how are we going to navigate the next three to
• 10:28
  Speaker 6: six months, how do we take advantage of that. I
• 10:30
  Speaker 6: think this correction is very well advanced, both in price
• 10:34
  Speaker 6: and time, and that's what we're trying to figure out.
• 10:36
  Speaker 6: We don't want to get too bearish at the lows.
• 10:38
  Speaker 6: So like last Monday was a clear capitulation day, and
• 10:41
  Speaker 6: until there's clarity on that aspect, which by the way,
• 10:44
  Speaker 6: is not just a function of teriffs. Teriffs to me
• 10:46
  Speaker 6: is kind of the final blow to an economy that
• 10:48
  Speaker 6: was already weakening for a period of time, and we
• 10:51
  Speaker 6: can talk about those things. So the market now has
• 10:53
  Speaker 6: to navigate this, and we also.
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: Have fed that's on hold.
• 10:57
  Speaker 6: Another thing that I think is different than what was
• 10:59
  Speaker 6: going on last fall, where they were being very generous
• 11:01
  Speaker 6: with stimulus.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: So we're just sort of trapped in because of the tariffs.
• 11:05
  Speaker 6: That's what they're telling us, right, They're telling us that
• 11:07
  Speaker 6: they are still worried about inflation, mainly because of.
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: The terraff for USK. We had good numbers last week.
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: That's and so we'll see, but they're going to be
• 11:13
  Speaker 6: slow on the draw all right.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: So with the FED seeing a little bit slow down, granted,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: some of that is trailing lagging, I should say, in
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: terms of the report coming out of inflation. But to
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: the you know, the Analysti's credit is that when you
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: do look at the market in general, yes, maybe there
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: has been a bit of a downturn, but the key
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: here is the speed in which that has occurred. This
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: is why I think we're starting to see the FED
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: flinch slightly. FED absolutely prepared to stabilize markets is of
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: course coming in from the head of Boston FED, and
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: I think this will be a factor playing into if
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: we do start to see more defecting in the ranks
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: at the FED, where we do might end up seeing
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: a raycut. And because a lot of this will still
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: depend on how inflation continues to perform. However, all that
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: being said, Michael Saylor is out there buying more bitcoin.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: He has acquired another thirty five hundred worth about two
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: hundred eighty five million, so he's now holding about thirty
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: five billion in bitcoin current average price at around sixty
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: seven five And if you look at some of the
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: things in terms of how this may play out, there's
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: still a lot of uncertainty around this in terms of
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: the trade negotiations. But bitcoin is still holding after the
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: last seven days on a ten percent recovery.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: So nice move for bitcoin in general.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: What wasn't nice for bitcoin is they still have been
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: unable to get major corporations to drop it into the
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: balance sheet, get it into the treasury. McDonald's now another
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: company who has said not interested, this of course coming
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: from the SEC because of how they are tied into
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: a publicly traded company, much like Microsoft, which stepped away
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: from bitcoin on the asset and balance sheet. Again, this
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: has been a big proponent of where Bitcoin Maxi's have
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: really tried to push a lot of public traded companies
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: to do much like what Strategy has done, and that
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: is put more in the treasury.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: Just not happening so far.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: And another thing that is not happening is the SEC's
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: decision on e staking. They are saying for grey scales ETFs,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: this is going to get delayed over to June first.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Now I know that's just a little bit longer. Not
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: sure what the hold up is in terms of where
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: they're going with this, but I think the point being
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: is that eth still continues to be one of the
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: lagging assets. If you look at the charts right now
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: where Ethereum has been nice little recovery here from where
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: it was bottoming at around fourteen fifty, trading now at
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: about sixteen forty three, so it has nice had a
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: nice little recovery. Bitcoin same kind of scenario bottom right
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: here around seventy six, seventy six to two. That was
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: a nice position, holding today right now at about eighty
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: four nine as we record this, so we may see
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: it in eighty five, thousand, eighty six, we saw kind
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: of clipping above that at seventy or I should say
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: eighty five, a little bit over eighty six yesterday after
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: a dip. But I think the key here is are
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: you bullish or are you bearish? At least on the
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: crypto markets, we do see that in the traditional securities
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: people are much more bearish, and I'm hearing this from analysts.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: I'm hearing this from a lot of money managers out there,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: and the question is, is that why we're seeing gold
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: and bitcoin both start to correct. Let me know in
• 14:20
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• 14:22
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• 14:25
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• 14:27
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• 14:30
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• 14:33
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• 14:35
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