Latest / Toadstool Sports / MLB + WNBA Best Bets Thursday 7/24/25
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep.
- 0:01Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven
- 0:06Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
- 0:08Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
- 0:10Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
- 0:13Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
- 0:14Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you above that.
- 0:17Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore.
- 0:19Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this, Man, with the
- 0:23Speaker 2: slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good day at all.
- 0:26Speaker 1: Own four, I have not had a good season.
- 0:31Speaker 2: Man, with bookends the slump that I'm on, and the
- 0:35Speaker 2: slump continues.
- 0:36Speaker 1: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm gonna.
- 0:40Speaker 2: Burn my browins hat Man, I don't know what is
- 0:43Speaker 2: going on with the Bruins.
- 0:44Speaker 1: March Hape, is that what it is? I don't even
- 0:47Speaker 1: know it's it's March ninth, I think who even knows?
- 0:50Speaker 2: Man, I don't know what data is anymore. I don't
- 0:53Speaker 2: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
- 0:56Speaker 2: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
- 0:59Speaker 2: with you as I always am.
- 1:02Speaker 1: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
- 1:06Speaker 1: yesterday did not go well for me.
- 1:07Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
- 1:11Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this.
- 1:13Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:15Speaker 2: Slump, the slump, discontinus, the slump continues.
- 1:20Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:23Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
- 1:25Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all.
- 1:32Speaker 1: What's up?
- 1:32Speaker 2: Everybody gets towed back with you for Better off Dead?
- 1:37Speaker 2: Oh my god, I can't help but laugh at that
- 1:39Speaker 2: intro man every time.
- 1:41Speaker 1: This is better off Dead.
- 1:42Speaker 2: Thursday, July twenty fourth, and it's one of those days
- 1:45Speaker 2: where we have a very small board to deal with
- 1:49Speaker 2: and I'm not gonna give out any plays today, man,
- 1:51Speaker 2: So if you guys want to jump ship, go ahead,
- 1:53Speaker 2: But I am still gonna analyze all five baseball games today.
- 1:57Speaker 2: Five a whopping five baseball game. And today I'll talk
- 2:01Speaker 2: about WNBA briefly because I know everybody wants to hear
- 2:04Speaker 2: about that, and everybody wants to hear about yesterday going
- 2:07Speaker 2: oh to three, which I think was complete bullshit or
- 2:11Speaker 2: close to it. We had San Diego losing early on,
- 2:15Speaker 2: and they of course out hit Miami and still lost
- 2:18Speaker 2: the game outright, which they certainly had chances to do
- 2:21Speaker 2: something in that game.
- 2:21Speaker 1: Maybe shouldn't have been a run line play on that one.
- 2:24Speaker 2: But San Diego, I mean they lost the game three
- 2:27Speaker 2: to two and they out hit Miami. I think was
- 2:30Speaker 2: it seven to four, seven to five, something like that.
- 2:32Speaker 2: So it's like when you see that, more often than not,
- 2:35Speaker 2: that team is at least gonna win the game. Although
- 2:38Speaker 2: again low scoring, close game, maybe it was a bad call.
- 2:40Speaker 1: It was the weakest of the of the three.
- 2:43Speaker 2: The under in the Milwaukee Seattle game, under first five
- 2:45Speaker 2: innings got completely derailed, even though both starting pitchers actually
- 2:49Speaker 2: had decent pitching lines in the game, but Luis Castillo
- 2:53Speaker 2: got blown up sort of for a bunch of runs
- 2:55Speaker 2: because his fielding failed behind him. It was one error Seattle,
- 3:00Speaker 2: one error that led to three additional runs coming home,
- 3:03Speaker 2: and that completely bombed the play.
- 3:06Speaker 1: So that was great.
- 3:07Speaker 2: If that hadn't happened, it would have at least been close.
- 3:10Speaker 2: It would have had a shot to happen still, but that.
- 3:12Speaker 1: Ruined the game.
- 3:14Speaker 2: And then the A's as an underdog. I think that
- 3:16Speaker 2: was the correct call. I mean, you're getna getn underdog price.
- 3:19Speaker 2: I gave it out his first five innings, full game.
- 3:21Speaker 2: I thought it was a decent way to go as well,
- 3:24Speaker 2: and they potentially could have hit on either one of those.
- 3:26Speaker 2: They were down one nothing at the end of five
- 3:29Speaker 2: and lost the game two to one, and they out
- 3:32Speaker 2: hit their opponent as well. I think they out hit
- 3:33Speaker 2: Let me actually, look, I can bring it up. Actually,
- 3:36Speaker 2: why not.
- 3:36Speaker 1: Let's bring it up.
- 3:39Speaker 2: The A's definitely had more hits than the Rangers did
- 3:42Speaker 2: yesterday as well and wound up losing the game.
- 3:44Speaker 1: What did they out hit them by? Seven to four?
- 3:48Speaker 2: Yeah, so two runs off of four hits for the Rangers,
- 3:51Speaker 2: one run off of seven hits for the A's.
- 3:53Speaker 1: Again a bit of an outlier.
- 3:55Speaker 2: The A's certainly had their chances, so I'm not happy
- 3:59Speaker 2: about that three and I'm not gonna try to push
- 4:01Speaker 2: anything because I don't really love any of the games
- 4:04Speaker 2: today and Thursday. I usually identify some spots in MLB
- 4:08Speaker 2: because usually you have teams starting new series, which usually
- 4:12Speaker 2: leads to some situational spots that you can identify and
- 4:15Speaker 2: you could fade, like teams are turning on from road trips,
- 4:17Speaker 2: because I always talk about when a team returns on
- 4:19Speaker 2: from a road trip, man, they tend to be a
- 4:21Speaker 2: little bit distracted, and you want to look to go
- 4:25Speaker 2: against that team more often than not. But in this case,
- 4:28Speaker 2: every pitching matchup in every one of those games today,
- 4:31Speaker 2: I think there are three of those situations today, and
- 4:33Speaker 2: everyone the pitching matchup I think lines up against the
- 4:37Speaker 2: team that I would want to play on. Who's so
- 4:40Speaker 2: like the pitching matchup is better for the team that
- 4:42Speaker 2: is returning on from the road trips.
- 4:43Speaker 1: So I'm just not gonna.
- 4:45Speaker 2: Do anything today, but we will talk about these games here.
- 4:49Speaker 2: Who'll go to WNBA first? WNBA? We have three games today.
- 4:54Speaker 2: We have Phoenix. I don't know, excuse me, LA at Connecticut?
- 4:57Speaker 1: What am I saying?
- 4:58Speaker 2: Connecticut? I believe is not played since before the All
- 5:01Speaker 2: Star breaks? So Connecticut is definitely rested here. But is
- 5:06Speaker 2: that an advantage or a disadvantage, especially for the team
- 5:09Speaker 2: it's the worst team in the entire WNBA Connecticut. The
- 5:13Speaker 2: last time they played was before the All Star break
- 5:16Speaker 2: in Boston, actually at TD Garden against the Indiana Fever.
- 5:21Speaker 2: And I was actually going into Boston that night for
- 5:24Speaker 2: I think I saw weird al that night, But there
- 5:27Speaker 2: were a ton of Indiana Fever and Caitlyn Clark jerseys
- 5:31Speaker 2: in Boston that night. Man crazy to think about because
- 5:33Speaker 2: Connecticut is like the new England WNBA team. Nope, there's
- 5:38Speaker 2: real fever.
- 5:39Speaker 1: Fever. Man, there's real Caitlyn Clark fever.
- 5:41Speaker 2: She's been the best thing to happen to the WNBA,
- 5:44Speaker 2: even though she didn't even play in that game. She's
- 5:46Speaker 2: also not playing today, which I'll mention in a minute.
- 5:48Speaker 2: But Connecticut has had a lot of time off, which
- 5:51Speaker 2: may really help them because they went into the All
- 5:53Speaker 2: Star Break with three straight losses, so it might help
- 5:55Speaker 2: them kind.
- 5:56Speaker 1: Of regroup and refocus.
- 5:58Speaker 2: But then, on the other hand, even though LA did
- 6:00Speaker 2: play a game after the All Star Break and they
- 6:03Speaker 2: actually beat a revenge spot I had mentioned, I thought
- 6:06Speaker 2: Washington was gonna come out and play in that game
- 6:08Speaker 2: because LA had beaten Washington going into the All Star Break.
- 6:12Speaker 2: I thought it was a nice revenge spot for Washington.
- 6:14Speaker 2: That did not happen. LA won again. But LA might
- 6:18Speaker 2: have a little bit of an advantage over Connecticut here
- 6:20Speaker 2: because they at least did play a game and got
- 6:22Speaker 2: a game under their belt. Although they are traveling up
- 6:26Speaker 2: from Washington, Connecticut. Connecticut does have more rest, but again
- 6:29Speaker 2: could turn into Russ. Connecticut is a bad team. The
- 6:32Speaker 2: line has moved a little bit on LA up from
- 6:34Speaker 2: five and a half to six. In a way, I
- 6:36Speaker 2: do think LA is actually better than the record would indicates,
- 6:39Speaker 2: so you do have that as a factor as well.
- 6:42Speaker 2: They've had a pretty difficult schedule, so there below five
- 6:45Speaker 2: hundred record may actually be not totally indicative of what
- 6:48Speaker 2: they actually are. David, what's up man, Thanks for hanging out.
- 6:51Speaker 2: Good to see you again. Yeah, So, I mean, I
- 6:54Speaker 2: don't really have too many thoughts on that game, but
- 6:56Speaker 2: there you go, the one actual interesting game that we
- 6:59Speaker 2: have for WNBA.
- 7:01Speaker 1: What's up, hard r R, What's up man?
- 7:03Speaker 2: BK Guys sometimes I call you Vegas Indiana is probably
- 7:08Speaker 2: the best game on the board tonight. But the problem
- 7:11Speaker 2: with that is that Caitlyn Clark is still hurt. She's
- 7:13Speaker 2: not playing in this game. She's supposed to come back,
- 7:15Speaker 2: I think in the next game after this, but she's
- 7:18Speaker 2: not playing. Both of these teams did play after the
- 7:21Speaker 2: All Star Break. Indiana without Caitlin Clark. I think on
- 7:25Speaker 2: both ends of the All Star Break lost to the
- 7:27Speaker 2: New York Liberty both games. New York Liberty. They're the
- 7:30Speaker 2: best team in the East. They're one of the best
- 7:31Speaker 2: teams in the WNBA. So I mean there's not much
- 7:34Speaker 2: shame in losing to them. Vegas is coming off a
- 7:37Speaker 2: game against Atlanta where they actually beat Atlanta, beat them
- 7:40Speaker 2: down pretty well actually, which was in Vegas, and now
- 7:44Speaker 2: Vegas is starting a road trip, although it is still
- 7:46Speaker 2: a decent amount of travel going from Vegas to Indiana.
- 7:50Speaker 2: Now you gotta think that Vegas is going to be
- 7:53Speaker 2: focused here though, because not only are they starting a
- 7:55Speaker 2: road trip, but last time they played Indiana, this game
- 7:57Speaker 2: was also without Caitlyn Clark. Vegas went to Indiana, so
- 8:01Speaker 2: that was in this building.
- 8:03Speaker 1: Indiana them eighty one to fifty four without Caitlin Clark.
- 8:07Speaker 2: It was one of the most embarrassing losses for Vegas
- 8:11Speaker 2: that they've had all seasons. So I think they're gonna
- 8:13Speaker 2: remember that. So I actually think Vegas is gonna show
- 8:15Speaker 2: up in this game. So I would have a slight
- 8:17Speaker 2: lean to Vegas here for that reason. I mean that game, whoops,
- 8:21Speaker 2: I clicked on the wrong game. That game was a
- 8:23Speaker 2: complete outlier, dude. If you look at the percentages in
- 8:25Speaker 2: this game, and I believe, oh no, Asia Wilson did
- 8:28Speaker 2: play in this game. I thought she might have been out.
- 8:30Speaker 2: So the Aces actually had basically their full lineup and
- 8:33Speaker 2: they had one of their worst games ever. But look
- 8:36Speaker 2: at the percentages in this game, man, Indiana shot forty
- 8:39Speaker 2: nine point two percent for the field, which is a
- 8:41Speaker 2: bit of an outlier, a bit high. Vegas twenty six
- 8:45Speaker 2: point two percent from the field.
- 8:46Speaker 1: Man, that is unbelievably low.
- 8:48Speaker 2: That might be the lowest shooting percentage you'll see in
- 8:50Speaker 2: a game from any WNBA team like all years. So
- 8:54Speaker 2: this game I think was an outlier, and once it
- 8:56Speaker 2: got out of hand, I think it was just a
- 8:57Speaker 2: complete throwaway by the end of it. So I do
- 9:00Speaker 2: Vegas shows up with some fever in this game against
- 9:04Speaker 2: the fever and the line is moving on Vegas up
- 9:06Speaker 2: from one and a half to one and a half
- 9:07Speaker 2: with juice, I do agree with that. And in that
- 9:10Speaker 2: previous game where Indiana smoked Vegas, Indiana I thought was
- 9:15Speaker 2: actually kind of in a bad spot because they just
- 9:17Speaker 2: won the Commissioners Cup as well, I believe, but they
- 9:20Speaker 2: just still remain.
- 9:21Speaker 1: Focused in that game.
- 9:22Speaker 2: But in that game, Vegas was a four and a
- 9:24Speaker 2: half point favorite, and now they're only a one and
- 9:26Speaker 2: a half point favorite in this game, well headed towards two,
- 9:30Speaker 2: but I think you're also getting line value with the
- 9:32Speaker 2: Aces for that reason, man and people might just look
- 9:36Speaker 2: at the records and think, well, the Aces both teams
- 9:38Speaker 2: are like right around five hundred, so why wouldn't you
- 9:41Speaker 2: take the Fever as the home underdog, right even though
- 9:43Speaker 2: people probably know Caitlon Clark is out, but no real
- 9:46Speaker 2: serious injuries for the Aces in this one. So that
- 9:50Speaker 2: line again based on the fact that it was four
- 9:52Speaker 2: and a half last time, which maybe was a little
- 9:54Speaker 2: bit too high. I do think there is some line
- 9:56Speaker 2: value on Vegas in that game too, so that is
- 9:58Speaker 2: probably the the best look in the w NBA today.
- 10:03Speaker 2: Thoughts on Clark being a trans industry plan in order
- 10:06Speaker 2: to make Conserve as like a trans person, I can
- 10:11Speaker 2: tell you for a fact that that is not true
- 10:13Speaker 2: because there was a certain video that leaked online of
- 10:20Speaker 2: Caitlyn Clark in a compromising position that was tweeted out
- 10:26Speaker 2: by Antonio Brown, which Caitlin Clark got really pissed about somebody,
- 10:33Speaker 2: I think some one of her friends or whatever was
- 10:36Speaker 2: like playing a prank on her and basically filmed her
- 10:39Speaker 2: in the shower, like very briefly, but you could like
- 10:41Speaker 2: see her naked, and I will tell you she does
- 10:44Speaker 2: not have a penis. So I think that that theory
- 10:47Speaker 2: is not accurate. Gonna bang or not, I don't know
- 10:53Speaker 2: if you could find them. Antonio Brown tweeted it out. Man,
- 10:57Speaker 2: that's how I saw it, But I think it's like
- 10:59Speaker 2: long gone, so I don't know. Like I follow him
- 11:02Speaker 2: and he tweets out some wild crap. Man, we'd rather
- 11:07Speaker 2: have a Sophie Cunningham images. Man, she is, she is
- 11:12Speaker 2: hotter than Caitlin Clark, but no, Katelyn Clark is not
- 11:14Speaker 2: a man. Yes, I think Kateln Clark did did block
- 11:18Speaker 2: him because of that. Hopefully she doesn't block me for
- 11:20Speaker 2: just talking about this. I actually like Caitlin Clark again.
- 11:23Speaker 2: I mean I I don't believe in that theory there.
- 11:28Speaker 2: I mean I think that, Yeah, I don't think it's
- 11:30Speaker 2: like totally stage or anything like that.
- 11:32Speaker 1: I think that there is some real like race shit
- 11:35Speaker 1: going on in the w NBA.
- 11:39Speaker 2: I don't know if it's revenge where I have no
- 11:41Speaker 2: idea because I'm pretty sure it was like a female
- 11:44Speaker 2: roommate or friend of hers that did that, and I
- 11:46Speaker 2: don't know why they wound up posting it online or whatever.
- 11:49Speaker 1: I have no idea. I don't know I don't know
- 11:51Speaker 1: what's what's steel toe. I don't even know.
- 11:53Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not familiar with with the lingo here.
- 11:57Speaker 2: And then we have Seattle against Chicago.
- 11:59Speaker 1: We got.
- 12:01Speaker 2: You know, WNBA two Cage twenty five cover athlete Angel
- 12:05Speaker 2: Reese playing here for Chicago. Very bad Chicago team. Seattle
- 12:10Speaker 2: is a favorite on the road in this game. Chicago
- 12:13Speaker 2: has lost three games in a row and lost them
- 12:16Speaker 2: all pretty badly, and lost really embarrassingly against Atlanta a
- 12:19Speaker 2: couple of games ago, and then they got blown out
- 12:21Speaker 2: by Minnesota as well. But Minnesota is probably the best
- 12:25Speaker 2: team in the WNBA, so maybe not much shame in
- 12:28Speaker 2: that both of these teams did play already out of
- 12:32Speaker 2: the All Star Break.
- 12:33Speaker 1: Seattle is certainly the better of the two teams.
- 12:35Speaker 2: And I think Seattle will be in their own embarrassed
- 12:38Speaker 2: mood here because they just had a horrific game against Dallas,
- 12:41Speaker 2: who is one of the worst teams in the WNBA,
- 12:44Speaker 2: possibly still the worst team in the Western Conference. Yeah,
- 12:47Speaker 2: I mean I would say that they are. So that's
- 12:49Speaker 2: a pretty embarrassing loss for Seattle. So I think Seattle
- 12:52Speaker 2: is in a bounce back spot here. You know, it'll
- 12:54Speaker 2: help them, just get out of there, go on the road,
- 12:56Speaker 2: focus on basketball, start a road trip. So I don't
- 12:59Speaker 2: think Seattle is in a bad spot at all here,
- 13:01Speaker 2: but they are up from six to nine and a half.
- 13:03Speaker 1: So that is a significant line move.
- 13:06Speaker 2: So you're probably not getting a whole lot of value
- 13:07Speaker 2: on the number on Seattle anymore. Some of it is
- 13:11Speaker 2: injury issues, and you can see this. The injury report
- 13:14Speaker 2: for the Sky is ridiculous. Of course, we already knew
- 13:16Speaker 2: Van der Sloot has been out for the season for
- 13:18Speaker 2: a while, so that's not factoring into the line move here.
- 13:21Speaker 2: I mean it would factor into what the line was initially.
- 13:24Speaker 2: But it looks like Angel Reese speaking of the Devil,
- 13:26Speaker 2: it looks like she's game time decisions, so she might
- 13:29Speaker 2: actually not play.
- 13:31Speaker 1: So Chicago has a lot.
- 13:33Speaker 2: Of injuries that they're dealing with here, although on the
- 13:35Speaker 2: Storm side, Diggin's is a game time decision as well.
- 13:38Speaker 2: But to me, that line move seems to kind of
- 13:40Speaker 2: be indicating that maybe Reese is not going to play
- 13:42Speaker 2: in this game, So somebody to keep an eye on there.
- 13:45Speaker 2: But I'm I mean I would I would probably not
- 13:47Speaker 2: touch that game or most of the WNBA athletes I
- 13:51Speaker 2: don't think I would touch those with the who with
- 13:55Speaker 2: a ten foot poll? Andrew, I don't know if I
- 13:57Speaker 2: got to your comment or not. I was going through
- 13:58Speaker 2: them really fast. What's up, man, Thanks for hanging out everybody.
- 14:02Speaker 1: I have no desire to bang.
- 14:04Speaker 2: Caitlin Clark done now, and she's way taller than me,
- 14:06Speaker 2: which kind of I don't know. Weirds me out a
- 14:09Speaker 2: little bit. Let's go to Major League Baseball here. We
- 14:11Speaker 2: only have five games today. Four of them involve new
- 14:15Speaker 2: series beginning. One involves the continuation of a series. Baltimore
- 14:20Speaker 2: at Cleveland is in the afternoon. This is the fourth
- 14:23Speaker 2: game of a four game series. Cleveland is on the
- 14:25Speaker 2: version of a sweep and Cleveland does have Kansas City
- 14:28Speaker 2: up next in. Kansas City is two games behind them
- 14:31Speaker 2: in the standings. So Cleveland, I mean, after they've basically
- 14:35Speaker 2: dominated Baltimore in this series here, it is possible that
- 14:38Speaker 2: Cleveland overlooks Baltimore for this series finale here. With Kansas
- 14:42Speaker 2: City up starting tomorrow for the weekend series, that's a
- 14:46Speaker 2: much bigger series for Cleveland and Cleveland. I'm still not
- 14:49Speaker 2: buying what they're doing, man, I ain't buying what they're selling.
- 14:53Speaker 2: That's a nice steel Panther song. There actually a pretty
- 14:56Speaker 2: libertarian song, can go I check that song out. I
- 14:59Speaker 2: ain't buy in what you just sell in Cleveland.
- 15:03Speaker 1: They're still not a good offense at all. Man.
- 15:05Speaker 2: I haven't brought up the MLB statistics this time because
- 15:07Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to go through this fast. But I
- 15:10Speaker 2: don't buy Cleveland. Really, they're not a good offense. Neither
- 15:14Speaker 2: team used a lot of their bullpens yesterday. Cleveland used
- 15:18Speaker 2: I think a little bit more of their bullpen yesterday
- 15:20Speaker 2: to kind of finished the game off there. Although Baltimore
- 15:22Speaker 2: in general does have the worst of the two bullpens.
- 15:25Speaker 2: Baltimore is gonna have our buddy Charlie Morton on the
- 15:29Speaker 2: mound today, the guy that let me down last time
- 15:32Speaker 2: out after he seemed like he had completely turned his
- 15:35Speaker 2: season around. He had a bad start last time out
- 15:37Speaker 2: for once. He's got bad numbers on the season. Five
- 15:40Speaker 2: point five eighty RA, one point five to six whip Obviously,
- 15:43Speaker 2: that's pretty horrific. Six point eight to one Roadie Ra.
- 15:47Speaker 2: None of that is good, obviously. But again, I've talked
- 15:51Speaker 2: about this every time we have a Morton game. I
- 15:53Speaker 2: have to talk about this man. Because Baltimore had lost
- 15:57Speaker 2: the first twelve games he appeared and.
- 15:59Speaker 1: He was doing so poorly, they moved him to the bullpen.
- 16:03Speaker 2: He seemed like he kind of got his shit together
- 16:05Speaker 2: and they put him back in the starting rotation, and
- 16:08Speaker 2: he was actually really good. After resuming his role in
- 16:11Speaker 2: the starting rotation, Baltimore started winning virtually every game, and
- 16:14Speaker 2: they still at this point only lost two games that
- 16:17Speaker 2: he started. Since returning from the bullpen, he's allowed more
- 16:22Speaker 2: than three on runs now only twice. One was the
- 16:25Speaker 2: game at the A's Stadium, which I think you can
- 16:27Speaker 2: give him a pass on that because that's a really
- 16:29Speaker 2: hard stadium for pitchers to pitch in. It's a very
- 16:32Speaker 2: home run could do some ballpark, But the same thing
- 16:34Speaker 2: could be said about Tampa, which is where he had
- 16:36Speaker 2: his most recent start that wasn't good. That is a
- 16:39Speaker 2: very hitter friendly park as well Steinbrenner Field. It's a
- 16:41Speaker 2: spring training stadium, so he struggled in that game for sure.
- 16:46Speaker 1: He did give up some home runs.
- 16:47Speaker 2: My issue with Morton in his current form though, I
- 16:50Speaker 2: think he's a little bit out of form now because
- 16:52Speaker 2: he's walked six guys over the last two starts. While
- 16:55Speaker 2: striking out eight. So I don't like that ratio. So
- 16:58Speaker 2: I worry about Morton now. He's not a guy that
- 17:00Speaker 2: I would want to back now after that, even though
- 17:02Speaker 2: I could see reasons again why he'd give him a
- 17:04Speaker 2: pass for pitching poorly in those two very hitter friendly stadiums,
- 17:08Speaker 2: and he's stepping back down in class to face Cleveland,
- 17:11Speaker 2: not a very good offense.
- 17:12Speaker 1: He has okay numbers against.
- 17:15Speaker 2: Cleveland in his history, fifty four at bats against them,
- 17:18Speaker 2: fourteen to six, strike a walk ratio has allowed some
- 17:21Speaker 2: power to them, the three home runs, but two of
- 17:23Speaker 2: them are Santana. So if he's able to pitch around Santana,
- 17:27Speaker 2: the rest of Cleveland's hitters are not very good, maybe
- 17:31Speaker 2: he can stop Santana's evil ways. Charlie Morton against Cleveland
- 17:36Speaker 2: has held him to a two forty one batting average,
- 17:38Speaker 2: but a somewhat high seven ninety eight ops because Cleveland
- 17:42Speaker 2: does have those power numbers against him, so his numbers
- 17:45Speaker 2: are okay. He's going up against Logan Allen. Okay against Cleveland,
- 17:48Speaker 2: I should say Logan Allen. I mean, he's not a
- 17:51Speaker 2: pitcher that I trust either. Four point sixty RA one
- 17:54Speaker 2: point three to eight whip. He's been exactly the same
- 17:57Speaker 2: era wise home in a way, which a rarity there.
- 18:01Speaker 2: He's been pitching okay as far as his era, I mean,
- 18:04Speaker 2: this month he is a three point one two ERA,
- 18:06Speaker 2: which is good. Fourteen to five strike out walk ratio mediocre.
- 18:11Speaker 2: I mean, he's a mediocre pitcher man. I mean, his
- 18:12Speaker 2: whip is certainly a lot higher than I would like
- 18:15Speaker 2: to see, indicating that his VRA should probably be worse.
- 18:18Speaker 2: But he's a guy that kind of gets you, you know,
- 18:20Speaker 2: around a little bit over five innings every start. He'll
- 18:23Speaker 2: allow you know, three runs basically pretty much every time
- 18:26Speaker 2: he's out there. So at least he is consistent. You
- 18:29Speaker 2: kind of know what you're gonna get out of him.
- 18:30Speaker 2: He's not gonna be great, he's not gonna be completely awful.
- 18:34Speaker 2: Pretty much consistency, at least out of Allen. His numbers
- 18:38Speaker 2: against Baltimore are not good, though in twenty one at
- 18:40Speaker 2: bats it is a small sample size, but six to
- 18:43Speaker 2: five strike out walk ratio not Goodkowser and Henderson each
- 18:47Speaker 2: have a home run off him. He's allowed a three
- 18:49Speaker 2: thirty three average in one thousand and one seventy six
- 18:51Speaker 2: ops to them. So all that being said, I actually
- 18:54Speaker 2: kind of lean to Baltimore in this game, man, because
- 18:57Speaker 2: I think it's a look ahead spot for Cleveland. I
- 19:00Speaker 2: don't exactly trust Baltimore's bultpend though, so I could see
- 19:02Speaker 2: an argument for Baltimore in the first five innings as well.
- 19:06Speaker 2: I just don't know if you can really put your
- 19:07Speaker 2: faith in Charlie Morton right now either, though.
- 19:09Speaker 1: Man.
- 19:10Speaker 2: Cleveland's sitting at a slight home favorite, down for minus
- 19:13Speaker 2: one twenty two to minus one twenty one, fifty nine
- 19:16Speaker 2: percent of tickets, with sixty four percent of the cash
- 19:18Speaker 2: on Cleveland. Again, I don't really agree if that's where
- 19:23Speaker 2: the cash is lining up on Cleveland right now.
- 19:25Speaker 1: I don't really agree with that.
- 19:26Speaker 2: And I think Cleveland might be attracting public action in
- 19:29Speaker 2: this game because they are the team with the better record,
- 19:31Speaker 2: and I think Cleveland is a lot worse than the
- 19:33Speaker 2: record actually would indicate that they are. So that's another
- 19:35Speaker 2: reason to kind of lean towards towards Baltimore in that game.
- 19:41Speaker 1: Mersh and Royce, Oh, steel Toe is all right?
- 19:43Speaker 2: Yeah, Mersh and Royce, Man, I mean I don't know,
- 19:46Speaker 2: like Mersh, I think he's got to get his act together. Man,
- 19:49Speaker 2: he just has these weird like Schitzo episodes, because I
- 19:52Speaker 2: mean I do kind of like those guys. I really
- 19:54Speaker 2: like Royce. Royce is awesome, Mersh. You know, I think
- 19:58Speaker 2: needs to again. I think he needs to get his
- 20:00Speaker 2: shit together, man, he might need some help. Would you
- 20:05Speaker 2: rather look dead fat five hundred pounds or dead gay
- 20:09Speaker 2: like like a twink?
- 20:10Speaker 1: Basically fat?
- 20:14Speaker 2: Because you can fix that, right, if you're fat, at
- 20:17Speaker 2: least you can do something about that and lose the fat.
- 20:19Speaker 1: So I think I would go with fat, and at least.
- 20:22Speaker 2: You can still be manly that way, although you're probably
- 20:25Speaker 2: more likely to die if you look like that. Scott,
- 20:27Speaker 2: what's up man? That is correct? He fell for a
- 20:32Speaker 2: copy pasta. Yeah, he gets pretty. I think he has
- 20:36Speaker 2: kind of a loose Twitter trigger finger. I guess Toronto
- 20:40Speaker 2: at Detroit this game. I mean, looking at this game,
- 20:44Speaker 2: I would want to fade both teams in this game, man, Like,
- 20:46Speaker 2: I don't think either team is in a good spot
- 20:48Speaker 2: here now. Detroit is returning on from a road trip.
- 20:51Speaker 2: And you know, as I said at the top of
- 20:53Speaker 2: the show, when you have a team returning on from
- 20:56Speaker 2: a road trip, I look to fade that team, because
- 20:59Speaker 2: when they're returning over from the road trip, I think
- 21:01Speaker 2: they can kind of get a little bit distracted because
- 21:03Speaker 2: they've been away away from home.
- 21:05Speaker 1: They got to get back to family life. Now.
- 21:07Speaker 2: I know they weren't away for that long though, they're
- 21:09Speaker 2: not traveling that far, so they're just going from Pittsburgh
- 21:12Speaker 2: back to Detroit.
- 21:13Speaker 1: But even so, it is still a return.
- 21:14Speaker 2: Home spot, and I think the public's tendency here is
- 21:17Speaker 2: gonna say, well, Detroit's back in home. They are definitely
- 21:19Speaker 2: really good at home. They have one of the best
- 21:21Speaker 2: records in baseball still, so we have to go Detroit
- 21:24Speaker 2: right like, now that they're back at home, they're gonna
- 21:26Speaker 2: bounce back. I think that's gonna be the public sentiment.
- 21:29Speaker 2: But I'm not so sure about that, man. Detroit has
- 21:31Speaker 2: been playing really bad baseball for a while, even back
- 21:34Speaker 2: when they were at home. Although maybe when they return
- 21:36Speaker 2: home they might remember that and be a little bit
- 21:39Speaker 2: angry and want to kind of redeem themselves for that.
- 21:41Speaker 2: But they've lost what is that nine of their last
- 21:44Speaker 2: ten games now, including getting swept by Pittsburgh on that
- 21:48Speaker 2: recent road trip. Yeah, so in a way, yes, they're
- 21:51Speaker 2: gonna be angry. And want to bounce back. But in
- 21:52Speaker 2: a return home spot like this, I don't really want
- 21:55Speaker 2: to deal with them, and I don't really want Toronto either,
- 21:58Speaker 2: because Toronto's coming off beating the Yankees again in another series.
- 22:01Speaker 2: They just took two out of three from the Yankees
- 22:03Speaker 2: and they're now six for seven against the Yankees. Now
- 22:07Speaker 2: they're starting a road trip with momentum. So in a way,
- 22:10Speaker 2: it is a little bit of a better spot for Toronto.
- 22:12Speaker 2: When you start a road trip, I usually you are focused.
- 22:16Speaker 2: And yes, they should still be focused because I mean
- 22:18Speaker 2: they're playing one of the other teams with along with
- 22:21Speaker 2: them that has a really good record. So I don't
- 22:23Speaker 2: think Toronto's gonna overlook Detroit. But even so, that Yankee
- 22:26Speaker 2: series is a huge series for Toronto. Man, so I
- 22:28Speaker 2: think it's a bad spot for both teams. I don't
- 22:32Speaker 2: think either team really used a lot of their bullpen yesterday. Toronto,
- 22:35Speaker 2: I would give the edge a little bit on the
- 22:37Speaker 2: bullpen side. Toronto has the somewhat better bullpen. Detroit, though
- 22:42Speaker 2: very good at home. If we look at their records here,
- 22:45Speaker 2: the Jays are actually really bad on the road. They're
- 22:47Speaker 2: below five hundred on the road and Detroit still quite
- 22:50Speaker 2: good at home despite their recent struggles thirty two and
- 22:53Speaker 2: eighteen at home, and I kind of like the starting
- 22:56Speaker 2: pitching matchup better for Detroit as well. Eric Lauer is
- 22:59Speaker 2: pitching for Toron. I like to starting pitching match a
- 23:01Speaker 2: better for Detroit. I don't know if I just misspoke
- 23:03Speaker 2: or not. Eric Lauer for Toronto. He's been good this
- 23:07Speaker 2: season Man two point EIGHTYRA point nine to seven whip
- 23:11Speaker 2: better than what you would think he would be because
- 23:13Speaker 2: he hasn't been this good really throughout his career. He's
- 23:15Speaker 2: been a little bit worse on the road with a
- 23:17Speaker 2: three ERA, although still quite good. And he's been in
- 23:20Speaker 2: really good for him recently. Man this month twenty to
- 23:24Speaker 2: two strikeout Walker Race year this month three point three
- 23:27Speaker 2: eighty RA. He did have one start where he kind
- 23:30Speaker 2: of inexplicably only went four innings against the White Sox,
- 23:33Speaker 2: and I believe that was a game I give out
- 23:35Speaker 2: the under on the show and it did hit. But
- 23:38Speaker 2: I don't know if that game had a rain delay.
- 23:39Speaker 1: In it or what that was.
- 23:40Speaker 2: Because LOWERD was pitching fine, they wouldn't have taken him
- 23:43Speaker 2: out that early in that game. I wouldn't think so.
- 23:45Speaker 2: I don't know what the deal was with that, but
- 23:47Speaker 2: he's been good this month. He's allowed exactly two runs
- 23:49Speaker 2: in each start, has had great command this month, There's
- 23:52Speaker 2: only allowed nine hits to sixteen innings. Maybe take it
- 23:55Speaker 2: with a little bit of grain of salt because it
- 23:57Speaker 2: was against San Francisco, the White Sox and Anaheim and
- 23:59Speaker 2: those are not terrific offenses. But Toronto's also been winning
- 24:03Speaker 2: behind him. They've won seven of his last eight starts,
- 24:06Speaker 2: so definitely they have been winning behind him. And actually
- 24:09Speaker 2: they've won ten of his last twelve, yeah, twelve starts,
- 24:12Speaker 2: I believe. So he is pitching well, but up against
- 24:15Speaker 2: Detroit he's actually struggled. In thirty four at bats, he
- 24:19Speaker 2: has a good twelve to two strike out walk ratio,
- 24:21Speaker 2: but he's allowed a lot of hits to Detroit three
- 24:24Speaker 2: eighty two batting average one thy sixty four oh ps.
- 24:27Speaker 2: That's not good by as and torcals in each f
- 24:30Speaker 2: home runs. So again, if you want to look for
- 24:32Speaker 2: player prop potential, go with hits plus runs plas RBIs.
- 24:35Speaker 2: Maybe those two guys are worth a look. So Lower
- 24:38Speaker 2: has had his struggles against Detroit. Detroit has Reese Olsen pitching.
- 24:42Speaker 2: He's been good this year as well. Two point seven
- 24:44Speaker 2: to one ERA, one point one to nine WHIP. He's
- 24:47Speaker 2: better at home this year two point three ERA. We
- 24:50Speaker 2: don't have a huge stample size for him yet because
- 24:52Speaker 2: he's been injured. So he did come back from injury
- 24:55Speaker 2: after he missed about a month and a half. He's
- 24:59Speaker 2: back and he's actual been pretty good since he's come back.
- 25:01Speaker 2: One point eight eighty R in three starts, ten to four,
- 25:05Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio a little bit questionable, just not
- 25:07Speaker 2: really a high strikeout rate. But Olsen is a pretty
- 25:11Speaker 2: a successful pitcher overall man. He's been successful in past
- 25:14Speaker 2: seasons as well. He's not quite going deep into these
- 25:17Speaker 2: games yet, they'll only going five innings each of the
- 25:19Speaker 2: last two outings, but he's only allowed He's allowed two
- 25:22Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs in his last four outings, so
- 25:25Speaker 2: that's a good sign. And then includes one against Toronto
- 25:27Speaker 2: where he shut them out for six innings and only
- 25:29Speaker 2: allowed one hit, six strikeouts in one walk, and that
- 25:32Speaker 2: was before he got injured. Uh so he did pitch
- 25:35Speaker 2: well against Toronto, and I believe he does have a
- 25:38Speaker 2: good history against Toronto including that start.
- 25:41Speaker 1: Yeah, he's dominated Toronto.
- 25:43Speaker 2: In thirty six at bats, they only have three hits
- 25:45Speaker 2: off him, no extra base hits, eight strikeouts, three walks.
- 25:48Speaker 2: That's an eighty three batting average and two thirty seven
- 25:52Speaker 2: ops against Olsen. So Olsen has absolutely dominated. Let me
- 25:57Speaker 2: just look to see if pitched against Detroit.
- 26:01Speaker 1: He did back on May seventeenth.
- 26:02Speaker 2: He only went three innings in that game, so I
- 26:05Speaker 2: don't know what the deal was with that, either if
- 26:06Speaker 2: he came out of the bullpen or just did like
- 26:08Speaker 2: an opener type of thing. A Lower wasn't really getting
- 26:11Speaker 2: like a full starter's workload until they ramped him up
- 26:15Speaker 2: more recently.
- 26:15Speaker 1: So Lower.
- 26:16Speaker 2: Overall, the matchup numbers point towards Reese Olsen having a
- 26:20Speaker 2: pretty significant starting pitching edge man just based on how
- 26:22Speaker 2: they match up against.
- 26:24Speaker 1: The hitters Ree Olsen.
- 26:25Speaker 2: His numbers are so dominant against Toronto that I think
- 26:29Speaker 2: you might want to look somehow to play against Toronto.
- 26:33Speaker 1: But I mean Detroit. The money's coming in against Detroit.
- 26:37Speaker 2: They're down for minus one thirty two to minus one
- 26:39Speaker 2: twenty two fifty tickets eighty seven percent of the cash
- 26:42Speaker 2: on Toronto. So the money is indicating on Toronto in
- 26:45Speaker 2: this game. And I could see the reasoning behind that. Again,
- 26:47Speaker 2: Detroit is returning on from a road trip, baseball is streaky,
- 26:51Speaker 2: and Detroit has been really, really bad recently, So I
- 26:54Speaker 2: could see those that reasoning behind, and Toronto is certainly hot.
- 26:57Speaker 2: But does that mean that Toronto at some point Toronto's
- 27:01Speaker 2: gonna be overvalued in the market. But maybe maybe they're
- 27:04Speaker 2: not overvalued here. I mean they are an underdog up
- 27:07Speaker 2: against Detroit hero though I still think Detroit is better
- 27:10Speaker 2: than Toronto is. I think Toronto's record might be a
- 27:13Speaker 2: little bit more misleading than Detroit's is. Detroit probably is
- 27:17Speaker 2: around as good as they look at this point, but
- 27:19Speaker 2: Toronto probably other record makes them look a little bit
- 27:23Speaker 2: better than they actually are. So I would land to
- 27:26Speaker 2: Detroit in this game, at least in the first five
- 27:29Speaker 2: innings with the starting pitching matchup. But maybe the best
- 27:31Speaker 2: way to go about this is to go with Toronto
- 27:34Speaker 2: to go under their team total, because I think maybe
- 27:37Speaker 2: their bats might be a little bit unfocused after the
- 27:40Speaker 2: big series against the Yankees and Reese Olsen just dominates
- 27:43Speaker 2: them hard, which that sounds very sounds sexual. Yeah, it
- 27:49Speaker 2: sounds very homeo. But yeah, I would probably do something
- 27:54Speaker 2: like that in that game if I was gonna play
- 27:55Speaker 2: this game. Yeah, I don't know what the deal is
- 27:59Speaker 2: man and Royce. I mean their show is good. I
- 28:02Speaker 2: mean they were funny at Pro Grove to their show.
- 28:05Speaker 2: I liked their show at Pro Grove when they were
- 28:07Speaker 2: there two bro Groves ago. It's a hard statement to say.
- 28:12Speaker 2: By the way, it's a tongue twister. Mersh pointed a
- 28:15Speaker 2: gun at you. I would not take that risk, man,
- 28:18Speaker 2: that's crazy.
- 28:19Speaker 1: Ah oh? Or do you mean metaphorically on Twitter? I
- 28:23Speaker 1: don't know.
- 28:23Speaker 2: San Diego at Saint Louis, San Diego is what are
- 28:28Speaker 2: they continuing a road trip?
- 28:30Speaker 1: Yees?
- 28:30Speaker 2: So they're actually having to go from Miami to Saint Louis,
- 28:33Speaker 2: so not exactly a great travel spot for San Diego.
- 28:36Speaker 2: San Diego did kind of save some of their bullpen
- 28:39Speaker 2: yesterday though, so they didn't use their better relievers. So
- 28:42Speaker 2: San Diego does have the better bullpen in this matchup.
- 28:45Speaker 2: Saint Louis is returning over from a road trip. As
- 28:47Speaker 2: I said, we have a lot of teams returning off
- 28:49Speaker 2: from road trips. I actually think all four of these
- 28:51Speaker 2: teams Detroit, Saint Louis, Houston, la Anaheim, I mean are
- 28:54Speaker 2: all returning home from road trips. Saint Louis is returning
- 28:58Speaker 2: from going to Arizona and cal Rod, so they're actually
- 29:00Speaker 2: coming in out of elevation as well. And hey, I
- 29:02Speaker 2: actually got Colorado right yesterday. I mentioned that as a
- 29:05Speaker 2: lean on the show yesterday and didn't give it out
- 29:07Speaker 2: as a play. So isn't that nice? I told you
- 29:09Speaker 2: that I actually didn't mind Tanner Gordon. I didn't like Polante.
- 29:14Speaker 2: Now Saint Louis did not use that much of their
- 29:16Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday. Yes, they should be embarrassed by the way
- 29:19Speaker 2: that they played against Colorado. But I just think Saint
- 29:22Speaker 2: Louis is not as good as their record be indicated
- 29:25Speaker 2: at this point. Man, I think Saint Louis they're starting
- 29:28Speaker 2: to decline, and I think it's been a predictable decline
- 29:30Speaker 2: for them. And did a return home spot like this again,
- 29:33Speaker 2: the distractions that come in with returning back to family life.
- 29:36Speaker 2: I don't really want anything to do with them. I
- 29:38Speaker 2: don't know they don't want anything to do with San
- 29:40Speaker 2: Diego either though. And you darvisius picture for San Diego here,
- 29:43Speaker 2: He's gonna be very hard to predict right now, man,
- 29:46Speaker 2: I mean he's an older pitcher now, he's just coming
- 29:49Speaker 2: back from injuries. Only made two starts so far this
- 29:51Speaker 2: season or three, maybe maybe it's been three now, but
- 29:54Speaker 2: he hasn't been good.
- 29:55Speaker 1: He has a six.
- 29:56Speaker 2: Point eightyr and one point five whip over those three starts.
- 29:59Speaker 1: That's not good. A little bit better.
- 30:01Speaker 2: On the road five point fourty Ram, I mean, yes,
- 30:04Speaker 2: I expect him to kind of return to form and
- 30:06Speaker 2: do better than this. I mean he was better than
- 30:08Speaker 2: this of course last year and throughout his career, but
- 30:11Speaker 2: he has not found himself yet. Man. He's only gone
- 30:14Speaker 2: at most five innings in any of his starts. Eight
- 30:17Speaker 2: to seven strike up walk ratio. I'm not good either.
- 30:21Speaker 2: I mean he's been wild, he's walked too many guys.
- 30:23Speaker 2: He's allowed a lot of runs so far. He hasn't
- 30:26Speaker 2: even allowed any home runs yet, So he's not really
- 30:29Speaker 2: in good form right now, man, So I would not
- 30:31Speaker 2: really be ready to trust you, Darvis.
- 30:33Speaker 1: Yet. He hasn't been good against Saint Louis either.
- 30:36Speaker 2: In sixty six career at bats, fifteen to three strike
- 30:39Speaker 2: a walk ratio is good, but he's allowed four homers
- 30:41Speaker 2: to them, although three of them are Arnatto. So if
- 30:44Speaker 2: he can pitch around him. That might help him out
- 30:46Speaker 2: a little bit. But Arnauto's nine for twenty three with
- 30:48Speaker 2: three homers off him. Darvish has allowed a three zero
- 30:52Speaker 2: three average and eight sixty four ohps.
- 30:54Speaker 1: Two Saint Louis, so not very good numbers.
- 30:57Speaker 2: And he's gonna be up against Sunny Gray, who as
- 31:00Speaker 2: far as right now, you've got to favorite Sonny Gray
- 31:03Speaker 2: in the starting pitching matchup, even though his ERA is
- 31:05Speaker 2: now up to four point oh four, but he is
- 31:07Speaker 2: still a good pitcher man. He's got a one point
- 31:09Speaker 2: one to five whip, which is pretty solid. He's been
- 31:12Speaker 2: really good at home, far better at home. His home
- 31:15Speaker 2: ERA is three runs better than it is on the
- 31:17Speaker 2: road two point eight to four home Ray, he's coming
- 31:20Speaker 2: off a terrible start, but of course it was on
- 31:22Speaker 2: the road because he is really bad on the road
- 31:25Speaker 2: for the most part. He got blasted by Arizona in
- 31:28Speaker 2: that game on the road, so his current form doesn't
- 31:31Speaker 2: look like it's good. But I would push back on that,
- 31:33Speaker 2: and I would be more willing to say that was
- 31:35Speaker 2: a bit of an outlier, because that's a difficult offensive face.
- 31:39Speaker 2: It's a difficult stadium to pitch him with Arizona. He
- 31:42Speaker 2: got lit up in the game, but he still did
- 31:44Speaker 2: have control with five strikeouts no walks. His control has
- 31:47Speaker 2: been really good this month twenty two to two strikeout
- 31:49Speaker 2: walk ratio twenty five to three last month, So he
- 31:53Speaker 2: his control has been there this entire time. Man, I
- 31:55Speaker 2: mean that's across that entire span. That's a forty seven
- 31:59Speaker 2: to five I strike at walk ratio. That's an elite
- 32:02Speaker 2: strike at walk ratio. So he is still pitching well overall.
- 32:06Speaker 1: Man.
- 32:07Speaker 2: Up against who do we have here, San Diego, I
- 32:09Speaker 2: think his numbers are actually not good against San Diego.
- 32:13Speaker 2: In ninety eight to bats, he's been mediocre against them,
- 32:15Speaker 2: twenty six to four strike a walk ratio is good.
- 32:18Speaker 2: Machado specifically does a lot of damage to them eleven
- 32:21Speaker 2: for thirty two with two on them runs and a
- 32:23Speaker 2: couple of doubles, a couple of walks. So again some
- 32:26Speaker 2: player prop potential there, but overall he's held San Diego
- 32:28Speaker 2: to a two seventy six average seven to sixty three ohps.
- 32:33Speaker 2: So I would lean towards Sonny Gray and the starting
- 32:36Speaker 2: pitching matchup, and the money is actually coming in that way.
- 32:39Speaker 2: Despite Saint Louis or turning on from a road trip.
- 32:41Speaker 2: I think that would probably be the way to lean here.
- 32:43Speaker 2: The rough for minus one thirty, minus one forty three,
- 32:46Speaker 2: sixty three percent of ticket, seventy nine percent of the cash,
- 32:49Speaker 2: so the money is actually coming in of Saint Louis.
- 32:51Speaker 2: If I was gonna do that, I would probably limit
- 32:53Speaker 2: it to first five innings, although you might have to
- 32:54Speaker 2: pay more for that, because I think Saint Louis their
- 32:57Speaker 2: edge is with the starting pitching matchup, and once it
- 32:59Speaker 2: gets to the bullpens, I don't see as much of
- 33:02Speaker 2: an edge there because San Diego does have the better bullpen.
- 33:05Speaker 2: So that's the way I look at that game. A's
- 33:08Speaker 2: are at Houston. Houston's returning home from a road trip,
- 33:11Speaker 2: and they had a pretty good road trip, even though
- 33:12Speaker 2: they lost the first two games in Seattle. They then
- 33:15Speaker 2: proceeded to win the remaining four games of the road trip,
- 33:18Speaker 2: sweeping Arizona, which is not easy to do. And I
- 33:21Speaker 2: mentioned the last two of those games. Man, I actually
- 33:24Speaker 2: liked Houston in those last two games, and the market
- 33:27Speaker 2: was completely opposing me, like the professionals did not agree
- 33:31Speaker 2: with Houston in either of those games. And I told
- 33:32Speaker 2: you I actually leaned to Houston. Didn't give it out
- 33:35Speaker 2: as a play though, because I don't like fading strong
- 33:37Speaker 2: like market reads like that. But Houston got it done
- 33:40Speaker 2: both times, man. So now Houston is returning over from
- 33:42Speaker 2: a road trip, they're facing a pretty bad A's team.
- 33:46Speaker 2: Houston has some significant padding in their division right now,
- 33:49Speaker 2: though they're fighting with you know, Toronto and Detroit for
- 33:52Speaker 2: having the top record in the AL and also fighting
- 33:56Speaker 2: for the best record in baseball. But still, I mean,
- 33:59Speaker 2: you can't be focused every single game, man, and maybe
- 34:02Speaker 2: Houston this could be an unfocused spot again.
- 34:04Speaker 1: They're returning over from a road trip.
- 34:05Speaker 2: They might be feeling pretty high on themselves after sweeping Arizona.
- 34:09Speaker 2: They get this bad A's team that's the last place
- 34:11Speaker 2: team in their division coming in might take the A's
- 34:14Speaker 2: a little bit lightly, So I don't love the spot
- 34:16Speaker 2: for Houston here. Houston does have the significantly better bullpen, though,
- 34:20Speaker 2: so that's one advantage Houston has. The A's bullpen is
- 34:24Speaker 2: just terrific. Even if Houston used a little bit more
- 34:26Speaker 2: of their bullpen yesterday, which I actually I don't even
- 34:29Speaker 2: think they used a ton of their bullpen yesterday, although
- 34:31Speaker 2: they kind of had to use a little bit of
- 34:32Speaker 2: it to win those kind of close games against Arizona.
- 34:37Speaker 1: I still don't trust the A's bullpen. The A's have.
- 34:40Speaker 2: Luis Severino pitching. His numbers overall are pretty bad five
- 34:44Speaker 2: point one ERA, one point three to nine WHIP, but
- 34:48Speaker 2: he's been way better on the road. He's been terrible
- 34:51Speaker 2: at that A's Triple A stadium that they're playing him.
- 34:55Speaker 2: He's been way better on the road with a three
- 34:57Speaker 2: point one roady IRA, so he's actually been pretty respectable
- 35:00Speaker 2: on the road this month.
- 35:02Speaker 1: It's been kind of a mixed bag.
- 35:04Speaker 2: I mean, he's only gone five or fewer innings in
- 35:06Speaker 2: his last six starts at this point, which is not
- 35:10Speaker 2: really that good of a sign.
- 35:11Speaker 1: He's allowed five or more in runs and three.
- 35:15Speaker 2: Of those starts, although two of those starts are on
- 35:17Speaker 2: the road. This month, he did have a He had
- 35:20Speaker 2: a couple of decent starts his last couple of times
- 35:22Speaker 2: out with an eleven to four strike out walk ratio,
- 35:24Speaker 2: which is not too bad, and allowed two and one
- 35:27Speaker 2: earned run in those two starts, with one of them
- 35:29Speaker 2: being on the road, one of them being at home.
- 35:31Speaker 2: I mean, excuse me. Against Toronto though, that still wasn't
- 35:33Speaker 2: the greatest start for him. Several Reno up against Houston, though,
- 35:38Speaker 2: I believe he does not do well against Houston. Ninety
- 35:41Speaker 2: five career bats, eighteen to five strike a walk ratio
- 35:43Speaker 2: is good, but Houston's hit him for power. They have
- 35:45Speaker 2: five home runs off him. Yianer Diez is four for
- 35:49Speaker 2: ten with two home runs off him. Al two thirteen
- 35:53Speaker 2: for forty three with a home run. So he struggled
- 35:55Speaker 2: against some of these good Houston bats. Two ninety five
- 35:58Speaker 2: batting average overall for Houston off him in eight oh
- 36:01Speaker 2: four oh ps. So even though Houston's in a bad spot,
- 36:04Speaker 2: seven Reno is definitely a lot better on the road.
- 36:07Speaker 2: I don't know if we can back him in this
- 36:08Speaker 2: spot against this offense, but I still think you got
- 36:11Speaker 2: to give him an edge over George Costanza.
- 36:14Speaker 1: Here. Jason Alexander, his pitcher for Houston. I don't even
- 36:19Speaker 1: know what is gonna happen with Alexander.
- 36:21Speaker 2: I mean, you're probably gonna get Houston's bullpen getting involved
- 36:23Speaker 2: in this game early. I mean, Alexander is not really
- 36:26Speaker 2: a starter eight point four ERA this year, one point
- 36:29Speaker 2: eight whip, I mean that's bad stuff. He's actually facing
- 36:32Speaker 2: his former team, though, as you can see here, the
- 36:34Speaker 2: A's actually traded him, like I don't even know, like
- 36:38Speaker 2: about a month ago, maybe less. So he still has
- 36:40Speaker 2: the A's hat on in his mug shot here. But
- 36:45Speaker 2: the problem with that is because normally I would say, oh, well,
- 36:47Speaker 2: when a pitcher gets traded, if they're immediately facing the
- 36:50Speaker 2: team that got rid of them, a lot of times
- 36:52Speaker 2: they'll get pumped up for playing that team. Well, guess
- 36:54Speaker 2: what his first game after the A's traded and was
- 36:57Speaker 2: to play against the A's And he actually pitched pretty
- 37:00Speaker 2: well in that game and Houston won. Houston has actually
- 37:04Speaker 2: won both of Alexander's games in total blowouts. He actually
- 37:07Speaker 2: pitched in the eighteen to one win against the Dodgers.
- 37:10Speaker 2: But I'm not gonna trust Alexander here, man. I mean,
- 37:13Speaker 2: his strikeout walk numbers are really really bad. Across those
- 37:17Speaker 2: two starts. He's only gone nine innings. And yes, I know,
- 37:19Speaker 2: he's only allowed two runs with Houston so far and
- 37:22Speaker 2: only five hits, so those numbers aren't bad. But six
- 37:25Speaker 2: strikeouts compared to five walks that's not gonna get the
- 37:28Speaker 2: job done. Man, So I don't I'm not ready to
- 37:31Speaker 2: trust Alexander here, although I believe he actually does have
- 37:34Speaker 2: good numbers against the A's. Let me see, in limited
- 37:37Speaker 2: playing time nineteen at bats, they only have three hits
- 37:41Speaker 2: off him.
- 37:42Speaker 1: But again, his strikeout walk ratio isn't good.
- 37:44Speaker 2: Two strikeouts, three walks, one fifty eight average allowed four
- 37:47Speaker 2: to eighty three ops allowed. So Alexander does actually have
- 37:50Speaker 2: good matchup numbers, But I don't know if you can.
- 37:53Speaker 2: I don't know if you could trust the Astros at
- 37:57Speaker 2: all here. Man, the money is fading the ass and
- 38:00Speaker 2: I do agree with that. I think out of all
- 38:02Speaker 2: these games, maybe the strongest lean is towards the A's here.
- 38:06Speaker 2: But the A's have let me down repeatedly Man twice
- 38:09Speaker 2: in the last series.
- 38:10Speaker 1: I don't know. But at least with the A's.
- 38:12Speaker 2: I mean, yes, they're in the middle of a road trip,
- 38:14Speaker 2: but their travel is actually less than Houston because the
- 38:17Speaker 2: A's are already in Texas. They were just in Arlington, Texas,
- 38:21Speaker 2: so they're only traveling down from Arlington to Houston. Uh.
- 38:24Speaker 2: Sixty nine percent of tickets are on Houston. Obviously, Houston's
- 38:26Speaker 2: gonna be the public team here, especially with people looking
- 38:30Speaker 2: and seeing several Reinos numbers are not good, only fifty
- 38:33Speaker 2: five percent of the cash on Houston, though Houston's down
- 38:35Speaker 2: for minus one twenty five to minus one twenty two.
- 38:37Speaker 2: So I would maybe take a shot with the A's
- 38:41Speaker 2: in the first five innings. It is probably the way
- 38:44Speaker 2: that I would lean in this game, uh, fading the
- 38:46Speaker 2: spot for Houston, avoid the A's bullpen because their bullpen's bad.
- 38:50Speaker 2: But if Houston's bullpen is going to be in there
- 38:53Speaker 2: by like the third, fourth or you know, fourth inning,
- 38:55Speaker 2: maybe in this game, which I don't know if that's
- 38:56Speaker 2: gonna be the case, because Alexander did inexplicably pitch six
- 39:00Speaker 2: innings the last time out against the A's, so maybe
- 39:02Speaker 2: they'll extend him and let him go. I have no idea,
- 39:05Speaker 2: But once it gets to the bullpens, you probably can't
- 39:07Speaker 2: trust the A's anymore. So first five inning A's might
- 39:11Speaker 2: be the way to look there. But I don't even
- 39:13Speaker 2: think I could trust seven reinos, so that'll be a pass.
- 39:16Speaker 2: And then Seattle and Anaheim is the last game up.
- 39:19Speaker 2: Anaheim is returning home from a road trip as well,
- 39:22Speaker 2: and they're returning on from the East Coast, so they
- 39:24Speaker 2: actually probably have the worst return home spot out of
- 39:27Speaker 2: any of these teams, there's no team returning home from
- 39:31Speaker 2: a really long road trip because again, the All Star
- 39:34Speaker 2: Break was before this, so the Angels were only returning
- 39:38Speaker 2: home from a two game a two series road trip.
- 39:41Speaker 2: All the teams returning home are returning home from two
- 39:42Speaker 2: series road trips, so we have no three series road
- 39:45Speaker 2: trips again because of the All Star break. Anaheim was
- 39:48Speaker 2: just on the East coast, though they were in Philadelphia
- 39:51Speaker 2: and then the Mets, and those are two big series too,
- 39:53Speaker 2: even though they're both interleague series. The fact that now
- 39:56Speaker 2: Anaheim has to return cross country with no time off,
- 40:00Speaker 2: it's like a pretty bad spot to me. Man and
- 40:02Speaker 2: Anaheim went with a bullpen game yesterday, but they actually
- 40:05Speaker 2: used some long relief man for about six of those innings,
- 40:08Speaker 2: so Anaheim actually kind of saved their bullpen yesterday. But
- 40:11Speaker 2: Anaheim's bullpen is terrible anyway, So there are a lot
- 40:14Speaker 2: of reasons to still kind of fade Anaheim here. It's
- 40:17Speaker 2: a really bad spot for Anaheim. Seattle. They're traveling in
- 40:21Speaker 2: their starting road trip and they just got blasted by Milwaukee.
- 40:24Speaker 2: As I mentioned, some of that was fielding mistakes by
- 40:27Speaker 2: Seattle are one fielding mistake.
- 40:29Speaker 1: Really, so that game.
- 40:31Speaker 2: Yesterday was not really exactly what the final scorer made
- 40:34Speaker 2: it look because three underned runs were scored by Milwaukee.
- 40:37Speaker 2: Milwaukee's been a hot team and Seattle lost that series
- 40:39Speaker 2: to Milwaukee. But I think it might serve Seattle well
- 40:43Speaker 2: to just get out of there, man. I mean, Seattle
- 40:45Speaker 2: really really had a bad series. I mean they only
- 40:47Speaker 2: scored three runs in the entire series. Dude, Seattle did
- 40:51Speaker 2: so I think maybe one of the best things for
- 40:53Speaker 2: them is just get the hell out of there and
- 40:54Speaker 2: not listen to what the local media is saying whatever,
- 40:58Speaker 2: just go out on the roads on baseball. So I
- 41:01Speaker 2: think this is actually a focused spot for Seattle. So
- 41:03Speaker 2: I actually like Seattle. Seattle's bullpen is obviously the better one.
- 41:06Speaker 2: They didn't use that much of their bullpen. It's almost
- 41:10Speaker 2: like I'm talking myself into a play on Seattle here.
- 41:12Speaker 2: But can we trust Logan Evans? I don't really know, man,
- 41:15Speaker 2: he's gonna be pitching for Seattle. He's a young guy
- 41:18Speaker 2: with a decent amount of upside. Three point eight one
- 41:21Speaker 2: ERA this year is not that bad. One point four
- 41:24Speaker 2: two whip is not a good whip though, hard r
- 41:28Speaker 2: r What is this tower gang?
- 41:29Speaker 1: Now? Is this the mail bag comed on or in?
- 41:35Speaker 1: Obviously on? Right? I mean, it's easier to get rid
- 41:38Speaker 1: of it.
- 41:39Speaker 2: And if you can pick the spot, you know, oh,
- 41:41Speaker 2: just do it on my you know, well, what would
- 41:44Speaker 2: be the best spot, like the least disgusting spot to
- 41:48Speaker 2: have that happen. I don't know, like your foot or something,
- 41:51Speaker 2: because your feet are always constantly stepping on gross things anyway, right,
- 41:55Speaker 2: So yeah, just do it on the soul, on my foot, man,
- 41:58Speaker 2: and then I come on my soul and then then
- 42:02Speaker 2: I could just you know, clean it off pretty easily.
- 42:05Speaker 2: That might be the best answer to that. I don't know,
- 42:08Speaker 2: I might have might need we need tower game back
- 42:11Speaker 2: to weigh in on this. But Logan Evans, Yeah, his
- 42:13Speaker 2: whip scares me, man, but again, he's a young, pretty
- 42:17Speaker 2: talented pitcher with some upside here. The other thing that
- 42:19Speaker 2: scares me is he's been way better at home in
- 42:23Speaker 2: the friendly confines of Seattle, pretty much all of Seattle's
- 42:26Speaker 2: pitchers are. He's been significantly worse on the road, with
- 42:29Speaker 2: a five point zero six roadyra this month. His numbers
- 42:32Speaker 2: are a little bit if he tend to six strike
- 42:34Speaker 2: at walk ratio. So he actually went down to the
- 42:36Speaker 2: miners and came back up. I don't I don't mean
- 42:40Speaker 2: he went to Little Saint James. When he went down
- 42:42Speaker 2: to the miners, I mean he was in the minor leagues.
- 42:45Speaker 2: He came back and he really hit one bad start though,
- 42:48Speaker 2: since he's come back against the Yankees, which again pitching
- 42:52Speaker 2: in the Bronx, that's a difficult thing to do. But
- 42:54Speaker 2: over three starts here, he's gone fewer than five innings
- 42:58Speaker 2: in the last two of them, had five walks compared
- 43:01Speaker 2: to seven strikeouts in the last two. So that does
- 43:03Speaker 2: worry me that he is walking too many guys. But
- 43:06Speaker 2: it was against the Yankees in Houston. I mean, Houston
- 43:08Speaker 2: is a pretty good team as well. So what do
- 43:10Speaker 2: we want to do here man? Logan Evans, I mean overall,
- 43:12Speaker 2: I think he is a decent pitcher though, and Anaheim
- 43:16Speaker 2: has never seen him before, so Anaheim, I mean, they're
- 43:19Speaker 2: a mediocre offense, so maybe Evans might have a little
- 43:23Speaker 2: bit of an extra edge here, man because Anaheim has
- 43:25Speaker 2: never seen him before. So when that's the case, a
- 43:28Speaker 2: lot of times these young pitchers that do have talent,
- 43:30Speaker 2: can you know, can pitch okay against those offenses that
- 43:35Speaker 2: I haven't seen him befo because the hitters have to
- 43:37Speaker 2: kind of adapt and figure out what the pitcher is
- 43:38Speaker 2: gonna throw at them.
- 43:40Speaker 1: You say.
- 43:41Speaker 2: Kikuchi is pitching for Anaheim here, and he's got a
- 43:43Speaker 2: pretty good ERA three point one to three, although his
- 43:46Speaker 2: whip is pretty bad as well, one point three to eight.
- 43:49Speaker 2: So both starting pitchers have bad whips. Kikuchi, though, has
- 43:52Speaker 2: the advantage of the splits here. He's been a lot
- 43:54Speaker 2: better at home one point nine to eighty RA at home,
- 43:58Speaker 2: and he's pitching pretty well this month with the twenty
- 44:00Speaker 2: four to eight strike a walk ratio, so he's been
- 44:03Speaker 2: better recently than Logan Evans has been, so at least
- 44:07Speaker 2: he does have that going for him. Up against Seattle.
- 44:11Speaker 2: Kakuchi has also done well. In ninety three at bats.
- 44:14Speaker 2: He has a twenty eight to six strike at walk
- 44:16Speaker 2: ratio against him out of the three home runs he's allowed,
- 44:19Speaker 2: two of them or Arosa Raina, who only has five
- 44:21Speaker 2: hits and twenty two at bats against him, so he
- 44:23Speaker 2: can probably pitch around Arosa Rena as well, and overall
- 44:27Speaker 2: he's allowed only a two point fifteen average of five
- 44:29Speaker 2: to eighty five ops two Seattle, So I don't know
- 44:33Speaker 2: that I'm ready to fade Kokuchi.
- 44:35Speaker 1: Here either man.
- 44:35Speaker 2: And the money is coming in strongly on Anaheim. So
- 44:39Speaker 2: there's I can't play Seattle in this game either man.
- 44:41Speaker 2: The professional money looks like it's very strong strongly indicating
- 44:45Speaker 2: on Anaheim, up for minus one twenty to minus one
- 44:48Speaker 2: forty fifty percent of the tickets around Seattle. So Seattle,
- 44:51Speaker 2: with the better record, is the public team. Even though
- 44:53Speaker 2: I keep saying, man that Anaheim again, I still think
- 44:56Speaker 2: that they're a lot worse than their record indicates. They
- 44:59Speaker 2: have a really bad undifferential. They have a lot more
- 45:02Speaker 2: runs allowed than runs scored, So at some point I
- 45:05Speaker 2: think the wheels are gonna fall off, but maybe it
- 45:07Speaker 2: won't be here, and I think it's a really bad
- 45:09Speaker 2: spot for Anaheim. And if this game is close getting
- 45:11Speaker 2: into the bullpens, I think the advantage definitely shifts to Seattle.
- 45:15Speaker 2: But with fifty per tickets on Seattle, eighty two percent
- 45:18Speaker 2: of the cash is actually on Anaheim. So the money
- 45:20Speaker 2: is strongly indicating on Anaheim. So even though I would
- 45:24Speaker 2: lean slightly to Seattle full game in that one, I
- 45:28Speaker 2: just can't do it, man, based on everything I just
- 45:31Speaker 2: went through. So that's that's gonna be it for the
- 45:33Speaker 2: breakdown today or the rundown. Actually, I forgot to bring
- 45:37Speaker 2: up the rundown. This has been the rundown everybody, and
- 45:40Speaker 2: I don't have any best bets today, So there you go.
- 45:43Speaker 2: This is turning into a crazy like if people tune
- 45:46Speaker 2: in for sports, like, what is this? It's sports with
- 45:49Speaker 2: tower gang questions. Now, if your dad comes too quick,
- 45:52Speaker 2: is it because you got a really what's a bell end?
- 45:55Speaker 2: Like a sensitive tip? I don't know, Wait, why is
- 46:01Speaker 2: my why? Why would my mom be dead in this scenario?
- 46:05Speaker 2: I don't really understand the question. Or I mean, your
- 46:07Speaker 2: mom is a dead juicy pussy. I don't really understand that, man.
- 46:11Speaker 2: I think it could just mean that your dad is uh,
- 46:15Speaker 2: I don't know. Maybe he's just really inexperienced man, or
- 46:19Speaker 2: maybe he needs to like he needs to jerk off
- 46:23Speaker 2: more basically right, because that prevents you from like coming
- 46:27Speaker 2: too soon.
- 46:28Speaker 1: You know what I mean?
- 46:28Speaker 2: You need to be ready at all times. Oh really
- 46:33Speaker 2: nice pussly all right, I think it's neither. Like I said,
- 46:38Speaker 2: I think it's I think it's because your father is
- 46:41Speaker 2: just not prepared. That's that's what I would say. That
- 46:44Speaker 2: would be my answer, that that's gonna do it for me. Man,
- 46:46Speaker 2: Thanks guys for hanging out. Shorter episode because it is Thursday.
- 46:49Speaker 2: It went longer than I actually wanted to, but I
- 46:51Speaker 2: appreciate it. Man, Thanks for hanging out. No official plays
- 46:54Speaker 2: for me today, but hopefully the analysis might be helpful
- 46:58Speaker 2: to give you some in oh if you are betting
- 47:00Speaker 2: on any of these games, learn to toad on Twitter
- 47:03Speaker 2: is where I'm at. I'm also learned to toad on Instagram,
- 47:06Speaker 2: where I post just short videos of my actual plays.
- 47:10Speaker 2: You can find better off Dead on YouTube, which most
- 47:12Speaker 2: of you guys are commenting on YouTube here, so thanks
- 47:15Speaker 2: please continue to do that. Watch comment, you know, reply
- 47:19Speaker 2: like subscribe, and I am on the audio platforms which
- 47:22Speaker 2: are monetized, and hopefully this channel will become monetized eventually
- 47:26Speaker 2: on YouTube. But the audio stuff is monetized, and I
- 47:30Speaker 2: hope I get more traction on there too. It's on
- 47:32Speaker 2: all the audio platforms, but not getting a lot of
- 47:34Speaker 2: hits on the audio. And then we got covered in
- 47:39Speaker 2: Yuke is my Yuke project that's on YouTube at covered
- 47:43Speaker 2: in Yuke, So I do my Yuke covers there. I'm
- 47:46Speaker 2: starting to ramp that page up in every you cover
- 47:49Speaker 2: that I post on Twitter, I'm also posting there, and
- 47:51Speaker 2: I have a Patreon on Patreon dot com slash learn
- 47:54Speaker 2: to toad and you can help me out there. I
- 47:56Speaker 2: have multiple different levels, and at the higher levels you
- 47:59Speaker 2: get a Spotify Yuke feed now and you also will
- 48:04Speaker 2: have the ability to request songs from me. At the
- 48:07Speaker 2: highest level, I might do more Yuke Patreon content. I
- 48:09Speaker 2: don't know about betting Patreon content. Maybe I'll do some
- 48:13Speaker 2: extra betting streams too, but yeah, I'll probably do some
- 48:17Speaker 2: maybe Patreon like Yuke streams or something. I gotta figure
- 48:21Speaker 2: it out, and maybe have a toad Telegram, a toad
- 48:24Speaker 2: togram that people can join as well. So I gotta
- 48:26Speaker 2: get all that figured out. But check it all out.
- 48:29Speaker 2: Thanks everybody for hanging out and have a good Thursday.
- 48:31Speaker 2: Everybody in peace.