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BC Election!! | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

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  Speaker 1: visit helijet.com. It's Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026, and this is
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  Speaker 1: Political Capital Daily.
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  Speaker 2: Well, good morning. Welcome to election day. Not official.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not the LG. I don't have one of those
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  Speaker 1: funny hats. Nobody gave me a sword, but all signs
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  Speaker 1: point to what we expect to be the premier visiting
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  Speaker 1: government house today to drop the writ and start the
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  Speaker 1: 44th general election in British Columbia. That's what we think.
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  Speaker 2: That's what everyone's planning for.
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  Speaker 1: Aileen Mitchell, former new deputy chief of staff to premier
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  Speaker 1: David Eby is here. Good morning to you on this
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  Speaker 1: What could be a momentous day, although it's.
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  Speaker 2: Very early in the morning.
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  Speaker 3: Good morning.
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  Speaker 2: We're all braced for this.
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  Speaker 1: If it happens today, and we think it will, we
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  Speaker 1: would be into a period of sort of simultaneous campaigns.
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  Speaker 1: There'd be a municipal campaign that continues here for a
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  Speaker 1: vote on October 17th, which is one Saturday, a provincial
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  Speaker 1: campaign that would happen at the same time and then
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  Speaker 1: continue another week for October 24th, which is the second Saturday.
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  Speaker 1: And we would be into this kind of double election period,
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  Speaker 1: which means for the viewer, listener out there, you're going
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  Speaker 1: to see a lot of signs on the side of
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  Speaker 1: the highway. School board, council, regional district, your local MLA.
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  Speaker 1: This is the like two Super Bowls at the same
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  Speaker 1: time for politics nerds playing out at like two stadiums
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  Speaker 1: side by side and they bring the walls down and
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  Speaker 1: we've got two big games going on at the same time.
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  Speaker 1: It's going to be I've never seen it happen before,
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  Speaker 1: but it's going to be quite an event here if
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  Speaker 1: it does occur today.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, and I think because your audience is made up
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  Speaker 3: of a lot of political nerds, hopefully they will get a.
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  Speaker 1: Lot out of it.
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  Speaker 2: We call them cool people here.
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  Speaker 1: They're cool people on this podcast, but yes, they're nerdy
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  Speaker 1: as well.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, and I think we live in a democracy, and
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  Speaker 3: the people get to decide on the next government, and
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  Speaker 3: that's the beauty of it. And so there'll be lots
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  Speaker 3: to talk about. If indeed this does happen today, we
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  Speaker 3: won't know for sure until later.
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  Speaker 1: There's some big themes going into what could be this
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  Speaker 1: election here. We have the New Democrats who are riding
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  Speaker 1: high in the polls, according to the most recent round.
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  Speaker 2: They've got U.S.
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  Speaker 1: President Donald Trump threatening Canada, which has provoked a kind
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  Speaker 1: of big bump in the polls and the kind of
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  Speaker 1: nationalistic sort of pride that are helping some incumbent governments
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  Speaker 1: across the country. And then you have the sort of
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  Speaker 1: collapsing BC Conservative Party with Carolyn Finlay, the leader, quitting
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  Speaker 1: on Sunday and a movement within the centre BC, BC
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  Speaker 1: Conservative Parties to kind of mush together or find some
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  Speaker 1: way to work together in the last minute to try
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  Speaker 1: and present something for the electorate in the election campaign.
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  Speaker 1: And it kind of leads to this sort of, there's
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  Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty as we head into this election
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  Speaker 1: about the risk level that the New Democrats are taking
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  Speaker 1: going early, two years into a four-year mandate, and the
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  Speaker 1: risk level the opponents are taking, being unable to seemingly
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  Speaker 1: cooperate and put together a platform. And everyone's kind of
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  Speaker 1: rolling the dice a little bit in this election on
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  Speaker 1: their fortunes, which could be over the next 28 days.
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  Speaker 3: And that is the beauty of a democratic election, is
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  Speaker 3: that it's up to the people. No one has a
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  Speaker 3: crystal ball or knows what the outcome will be. Each
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  Speaker 3: party gets to present their vision. for how they would
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  Speaker 3: lead BC in the years ahead on the various challenges
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  Speaker 3: that people care about. And then the voters get to
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  Speaker 3: decide in the end on who's best to lead the
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  Speaker 3: province through those great challenges and to lead on the
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  Speaker 3: issues that people care about. I think there is risk
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  Speaker 3: on both sides. As you mentioned, the BC NDP right
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  Speaker 3: now has government. I think they also are looking at
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  Speaker 3: the risk that exists right now, right? The risk that
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  Speaker 3: is presented by Trump, the risk that is presented by
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  Speaker 3: what has seemed to be a fairly unstable legislative situation
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  Speaker 3: over the last couple of years. I know just from
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  Speaker 3: my time working in government that the House Leader's Office
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  Speaker 3: had a lot of delicate maneuvering they were having to
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  Speaker 3: do every single day trying to get bills through the House.
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  Speaker 3: And it did mean that fewer bills could be moved
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  Speaker 3: forward in sessions. So I think that's something that they
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  Speaker 3: really are hoping to address. They are hoping that this
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  Speaker 3: would lead to a more stable majority government that can
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  Speaker 3: really effectively move forward on an ambitious agenda to deal
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  Speaker 3: with the Trump trade war. And then I think on
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  Speaker 3: the right, that has been a challenge for them. The
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  Speaker 3: unity issues are something that has sort of plagued the
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  Speaker 3: party's various parties over the years on the right, including
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  Speaker 3: dating back to when I was in Premier Horgan's office,
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  Speaker 3: when Kevin Falcon was the leader, BC Liberal, and then
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  Speaker 3: BC United. And we started to see the splintering off
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  Speaker 3: of MLAs, starting with Rustad and then Bandman, and then
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  Speaker 3: the others that followed. I think that the groups that
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  Speaker 3: are sort of represented by the various right-wing parties right
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  Speaker 3: now They do have some values differences, which makes it
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  Speaker 3: hard for them to coalesce under one tent, whether they
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  Speaker 3: are sort of the old BC Liberal Board of Trade
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  Speaker 3: types or the sort of culture war pushers, which we
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  Speaker 3: saw come out in more full force in the last
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  Speaker 3: election under John Rustad's leadership.
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  Speaker 2: We're going to get after the break into.
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  Speaker 1: some of the pros and cons and risks and rewards
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  Speaker 1: that the center-right might have. We'll just close off the
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  Speaker 1: sort of NDP part of it here before the break. Aileen,
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  Speaker 1: how do you think the premier is going to deal
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  Speaker 1: with what I'm sure will be some sort of backlash
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  Speaker 1: and criticism for going early? And we saw UBCM bring
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  Speaker 1: it up on Friday saying, don't do this. And he
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  Speaker 1: said he'd take it into account. Some people are going
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  Speaker 1: to look at it and say, this is cynical. Some
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  Speaker 1: people will get over that. We saw in the 2020
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  Speaker 1: snap election during COVID that people just moved on during
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  Speaker 1: the campaign. Some people won't. Some local politicians will oppose this.
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  Speaker 1: If you're the premier, you're going in here, you've got
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  Speaker 1: something you want to say.
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  Speaker 2: How do you get.
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  Speaker 1: Over if there are people ticked off by him doing this?
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  Speaker 2: And can he get over it? And how do you
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  Speaker 2: think it's going to play out?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think municipal elections are important. Provincial elections are important.
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  Speaker 3: My hope, and again, maybe this is the political nerd
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  Speaker 3: in me, my hope is that it actually drives more
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  Speaker 3: attention to both. I do think that it's important for
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  Speaker 3: voters to get to have a say and to weigh
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  Speaker 3: in on the shape of our communities and the shape
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  Speaker 3: of our province moving forward. I think when it comes
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  Speaker 3: to the why, for why an election could be called today,
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  Speaker 3: and it is important to ask why. I think it
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  Speaker 3: is important to ask why. You know, Premier Horgan, he
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  Speaker 3: sought that new mandate to deal with the pandemic in 2020.
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  Speaker 3: That was a huge health crisis, you know, basically the
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  Speaker 3: biggest one in a century. And then he was given
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  Speaker 3: that mandate from the people to deal with it. And
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  Speaker 3: then now we have this new, huge, immense threat with
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  Speaker 3: the trade war with Trump. And so I think it's
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  Speaker 3: not unreasonable for EB to seek a mandate to deal
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  Speaker 3: with it because British Columbians never... voted on the issue
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  Speaker 3: because it sort of happened right after the 2024 election,
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  Speaker 3: which was focused on different issues. And then, of course,
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  Speaker 3: Trump came in and we have witnessed all of the
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  Speaker 3: things that have transpired since then, you know, unsettling, serious.
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  Speaker 3: And I think, you know, sometimes with these huge issues
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  Speaker 3: over time, you can see people get desensitized to them.
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  Speaker 3: They become less salient, but they don't go away and
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  Speaker 3: they continue to hurt people. And so I think it
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  Speaker 3: is important to deal with it now when it is
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  Speaker 3: front of mind for people, also because if we fail
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  Speaker 3: to deal with it now and really build this plan
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  Speaker 3: of action to protect BC jobs, then it's going to
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  Speaker 3: prevent us from being stronger into the years ahead. And
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  Speaker 3: I think, you know, back in 2020, there were also
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  Speaker 3: people at the time who were saying, you know, it
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  Speaker 3: looks cynical and and there certainly are people on the
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  Speaker 3: right right now saying that, but after a few days
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  Speaker 3: of those sorts of stories and that conversation, the focus
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  Speaker 3: typically moves to the big issues that people are facing.
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  Speaker 3: You know, they want to know what the plan is
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  Speaker 3: going to be for health care, for housing. They want
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  Speaker 3: to know what the plan is to protect jobs in
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  Speaker 3: the trade war. And so those will become the dominant
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  Speaker 3: questions the further we get into an election, if there
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  Speaker 3: is one called today.
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  Speaker 1: I'll be watching to see if the Premier, to your
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  Speaker 1: point about you know, responding to Trump, does he have
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  Speaker 1: a plan that he's pitching to.
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  Speaker 2: Voters that is very specific? Is it a program? Is
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  Speaker 2: it an aid package? Is it legislation?
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  Speaker 1: Or is it more of a character question? Is it a,
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  Speaker 1: you know, who do you want to figure that out
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  Speaker 1: in the future? And who do you want with their
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  Speaker 1: hands on the wheel kind of thing? Because I'm not
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  Speaker 1: entirely sure if there is a provincial plan and how
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  Speaker 1: much the federal government leads that.
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  Speaker 2: And I'm not sure. So that'll be one thing we'll
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  Speaker 2: be watching for in the campaign.
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  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, so obviously I have a lot of thoughts
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  Speaker 3: on this because I've done a lot of commentary around
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  Speaker 3: Trump over the last several months. I think when it
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  Speaker 3: comes to responding to Trump, the provinces have actually played
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  Speaker 3: a huge role. Some of the biggest pieces of leverage
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  Speaker 3: that Prime Minister Carney was able to bring to the
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  Speaker 3: table actually came from provinces, right? Like the removal of
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  Speaker 3: American liquor from store shelves. that was such a thorn
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  Speaker 3: in the side for the Trump administration, continues to be.
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  Speaker 3: And it was such an effective measure that it caused
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  Speaker 3: Trump and his ambassador to call Canadians mean and nasty
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  Speaker 3: and sort of push back. And so I think there
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  Speaker 3: is a pretty significant role for provinces in the trade war,
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  Speaker 3: not just on those sort of politically popular measures like
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  Speaker 3: removing American liquor, but also on trying to move forward
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  Speaker 3: major projects and expand industries because those are going to
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  Speaker 3: be critical parts of responding to the trade war. And
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  Speaker 3: I think there is both of those questions that will
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  Speaker 3: be important for voters, like what is in the various
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  Speaker 3: party platforms to respond to the Trump trade war, but
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  Speaker 3: then also that sort of value statement and looking at
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  Speaker 3: who has stood up for BC and stood up to
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  Speaker 3: Trump over the last couple of years. versus, you know,
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  Speaker 3: which politicians were the ones that were sort of accommodating
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  Speaker 3: Trump's demands or even refusing to denounce him in the House.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. OK, let's take a break.
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  Speaker 1: We'll talk about some of the sort of other parties
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  Speaker 1: and how they're positioning themselves just right after this. Political
• 12:37
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  Speaker 1: Thanks to Airbnb for its support. Back to the show. Okay,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about the center-right kind of re-coalescing here,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: but actually I want to just, this is going to
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: be our last point, but I want to elevate it
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: up here because I actually was thinking about this. We
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: haven't talked about the BC Greens in a long time,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: and they tend to get lost a little bit in
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: the shuffle here. They have two seats going into this election.
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  Speaker 1: If we have one today, Saanich North and the Islands,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Rob Botterill, West Vancouver Sea to Sky, Jeremy Valeriot. We
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: have watched the Greens shrink in the popular vote the
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: last few elections from a high way up to 17%
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: in 2017 with the coalition government time, down to 8%
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  Speaker 1: in the last election.
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  Speaker 2: A lot of pressure.
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  Speaker 1: Emily Lohan, the new leader, where's she going to run?
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Are those two MLAs running again? Elaine, does a party
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: like the Greens find themselves in an even more difficult
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: spot in an election where it's sort of heightened by
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  Speaker 1: some of the issues and the rhetoric that I think
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  Speaker 1: we're going to see here, some of the stuff about
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  Speaker 1: Trump and Where do you see the Greens at as
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  Speaker 1: we head in here?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, first off, I really like Emily. I've been
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  Speaker 3: able to meet her a couple of times. I do
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  Speaker 3: think that she is impressive. I think that for the Greens,
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: they do run into some challenges, particularly in elections where
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  Speaker 3: there is sort of like this dominant threat issue, which
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: tends to sort of.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: Make the vote sort of clumped together towards one of
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  Speaker 3: the major parties. And so, you know, for example, we
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: saw that in the 2020 election when the NDP picked
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: up a lot more votes, just because more people sort
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: of wanted to back the government, the governing party during
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: that crisis. And so I think there is the risk
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: that the Greens may experience some of that again this time.
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  Speaker 3: I think, you know, Premier Eby has focused a lot
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  Speaker 3: on the economy, for example, over the last few years.
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  Speaker 3: And that is an issue that is of huge importance
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  Speaker 3: right now for British Columbians when they're looking at the
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  Speaker 3: trade war and the threat that it presents and thinking
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: about their livelihoods and their jobs and their businesses. And
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  Speaker 3: so I think that that will be one of the
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: challenges that the Greens face in these ridings.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Going back to the other parties at play here, there's
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: two sort of scenarios that appear to be happening and
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: may play out over the next 24 hours.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: This morning, perhaps, later in the morning, this gets decided.
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  Speaker 1: In one scenario, we may have the BC Conservatives unite
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: with Centre BC, present just one party, the Conservatives, everyone
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: jumps back in, you've got one BC Conservative party, or
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: we might have the Centre BC and the BC Conservatives
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: and maybe even one BC, three different spots in the
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: ballot for voters to In each of those scenarios, Aileen,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: how does it change the dynamic here? A unified party
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: or three parties? And what does it do to what
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: this campaign might look like?
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: It's an interesting question because I'm not sure I've ever
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: seen it work when you have three parties sort of
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: agreeing that they have some shared values and so they're
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: not going to run against each other. I haven't really
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: seen it be that effective, or at least effective enough
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: that they could pick up enough seats and then eventually
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: form a coalition, at least not here in BC. But
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: I do think that, you know, the same sort of
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: fundamental challenge that they face with either of these strategies,
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: whether it's, you know, merging all together in one party,
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: or whether it's about, you know, some sort of arrangement
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: to not run in each other's ridings, is that while
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: they are all on the right, They do also have
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: some fundamental differences in their values. I, you know, I
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: talked on the show yesterday about, you know, sort of
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: one section of the B.C. conservatives, some of whom are
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: now center B.C. or I'm not sure where the rest
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: of them are. But they're sort of, you know, the
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: old B.C. liberal board of trade types. And then there
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: are quite a few on the right. Some sitting as
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: independents or, you know, like Dallas Brody won BC, but
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: also some folks that are still in the BC conservative
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: caucus who are the more culture war pusher types. And
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: so I do think that that is one of the
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  Speaker 3: friction points that they have continually dealt with over the
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: last couple of years. And there's lots of historical examples
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: that I could point to, but I don't think we'll
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: have time for that. Um, that's the big question, right?
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  Speaker 3: And that's, uh, been the chaos on the right, um,
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: that I think the premier has pointed to quite a
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: few times, um, because, uh, you know, they would have, uh,
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  Speaker 3: someone cross the floor, um, or there'd be some sort
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: of thing that happened behind the scenes of their caucus. Um,
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  Speaker 3: and it would create, uh, some turbulence and instability in
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: that party.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: We are expecting a press conference from Lauren Dirksen, who
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: is the new interim leader of the BC Conservatives around
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: 1 o'clock today. I'm not sure if that's going to
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  Speaker 1: hold depending on when and if the writ is dropped
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: by the Premier, but there is some type of desire
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  Speaker 1: by the Conservatives to speak about whether they have got
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: a deal with Centre BC. Five MLAs of the 14
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  Speaker 1: who have left since Carrie Lynn Finlay became the leader
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  Speaker 1: did return to the Conservatives yesterday. John Rustad, Trevor Halford,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: Claire Ratte, Linda Heppner, and Scott McInnes. There's still eight
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Centre BC MLAs and one former conservative Brennan day, who
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: has remained an independent, whether they all come on board
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: or not is a question, but they're, you know, in elections,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: we often end up looking at battleground writings because it's
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: an easier way for people to understand, you know, how
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: some writings tend to go for one party or another.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: And we focus on the swing writings and in swing writings,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: it feels like the risk of multiple parties here is
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: that a really tight race between the NDP and whatever
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: the other party is becomes, um, a split vote, which
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: then leads to an easier victory for the NDP, which
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: under our first past the post system creates a super
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: majority situation. And I think that's part of the electoral
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: math that is worrying some of the center right folks
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: right now as they try to smash these two parties
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: together at the last minute to respond to the, to
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: the election.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: So can they do it? I don't know.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: And I think, you know, in the 2024 election, That
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: was the first election where the B.C. Conservative Party was
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: even really a thing. Right. And there was, you know,
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: a belief among some that the name like the B.C.
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: Conservative name was quite popular at the time because the
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: federal liberals under Pierre Polyev had a very strong brand
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: as well. Federal Conservatives, yeah. Yeah, the Federal Conservatives, rather.
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: And so I'm interested to see sort of how that
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: plays out at this time. I think the Federal Conservative
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: brand is weaker right now. And we did see, you know,
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: in the federal election, there was a very effective campaign
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: by the federal Liberals to point out the similarities between
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: Trump-style politics and the kind of politics that Pierre Polyev
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: was using. And so I am interested to see how
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: that plays out here in BC.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: It's so, I mean, it's so, the advantage of the
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: conservatives has been that people recognize the name conservative. And
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: you've known, you know, I'm sure that you have been
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: with the premier, this premier, the last premier before out
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: in public where people don't even know who the premier is.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: And just imagine how hard it would be to get
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: people to understand what center BC is. Like, it's almost
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: impossible to imagine a scenario where center BC punches through
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: the fog in an election and becomes this, you know,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: thing that everyone suddenly rallies behind when folks are so
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: disengaged with so many levels of politics that a lot
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: of times they don't even, they couldn't name who the
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: premier is, let alone who the prime minister is, let
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: alone what election they're going to be voting in. let
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: alone a brand new Centre BC party popping up and
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: being on the ballot.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: So that's going to be super tough for them.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: I think that is a challenge. And I think, you know,
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: when I was out with the Premier, just, you know,
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: he's really tall.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: And so a lot of people actually did recognize him.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: Either that or he's a basketball player.
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: He kind of stands out. But yes, I think that
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: that is a potential challenge with the Centre BC name
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: and maybe the lack of party infrastructure there. But also,
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: you know, we talked on previous episodes about how a
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: lot of people see themselves as sort of middle of
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: the road. And so I think that's the, you know,
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: the image that Centre BC has been going for.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: Well, it's so many different dynamics at play here. It
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: will be a 28-day campaign. If the rates drop today,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: that's day zero.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: It doesn't count.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: I expect a lot of campaigning in the lower mainland,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: but also across the provinces. The NDP looks to pick
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: up some seats today. elsewhere at the expense of the Conservatives. So, man,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: what an election this could be, Aileen. Thank you so
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: much for being here. We're going to be in election
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: overload the next little while. So we'll be back tomorrow.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Political Capital Daily with all the latest on this, our
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: 44th general election.
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: Take care.