Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 290: Why This “March Madness” Weather Could Be Setting Us Up for a Tough Summer

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290: Why This “March Madness” Weather Could Be Setting Us Up for a Tough Summer · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  Gary Lezak is joining us once again to talk about the weather
• 0:04
  and what we are seeing across the Midwest right now.
• 0:07
  Gary breaks down a lot of the March Madness of the weather
• 0:11
  that we are seeing right now, what is happening across the
• 0:14
  plains, in the mountains, in the West, in the east, all of these
• 0:17
  different nuances that we're seeing this month.
• 0:20
  But then Gary also touches on drought conditions and he
• 0:24
  actually shows us some of his weather dashboard and some
• 0:28
  predictions that he has for Nebraska and Kansas as we go
• 0:31
  into the next few months on what we can expect on rainfall.
• 0:36
  And is this drought going to be expanding or is it going to be
• 0:39
  shrinking? And where do we need to start
• 0:41
  buttoning up the hatches as producers to prepare for what
• 0:45
  summer has to offer for us? Before we hop into today's
• 0:48
  episode with Gary, if you're watching on YouTube, make sure
• 0:51
  you take a second to hit that subscribe button.
• 0:52
  And like this episode, if you're on any of our other podcast
• 0:55
  platforms, make sure you're following the show.
• 0:57
  Go right and review it if you've got a second and share, share it
• 1:00
  with a friend as well. Without further ado, let's go
• 1:03
  ahead and hear from Gary Lezak. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
• 1:10
  podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
• 1:14
  industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
• 1:17
  today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
• 1:19
  passionate advocate for agriculture, here to keep you
• 1:22
  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
• 1:25
  episode. Gary, welcome back to the
• 1:33
  podcast. Good morning.
• 1:34
  How are you doing this lovely day?
• 1:37
  Doing fantastic. March weather madness has been
• 1:43
  in full force. I mean, after we add in the heat
• 1:47
  that's building right now, combined with the large
• 1:51
  damaging, devastating hail, some tornadoes across the United
• 1:55
  States, snow storms in New York, and they're going to warm up as
• 1:59
  well. So it has truly been When I say
• 2:02
  March Weather Madness, I mean it. 100% Gary.
• 2:07
  It was what? What was the feel the earlier
• 2:10
  this week in Kansas City? On Sunday it was frigid.
• 2:13
  It was so cold. And then it's going to be 97 on
• 2:16
  Saturday. Yeah.
• 2:17
  Well, the madness. The feel like temperature.
• 2:20
  Yes, yes. I'm not a bit, I'm not a big
• 2:23
  feels like temperature. And so it's OK, it's fine, you
• 2:26
  know, because it's going to. Be it's going to be really hot,
• 2:28
  All right, It's going to be, it was really cold and now it's
• 2:30
  going to be really hot. 97° feels like, What does that mean?
• 2:34
  If you're on the pavement, it might be.
• 2:36
  It might feel like 120, all right.
• 2:38
  And if you're in the shade, under a tree, in the park, it
• 2:41
  might feel like 88. Yeah, we always have to do these
• 2:45
  extremes, and that's fine. We're having much weather
• 2:48
  extremes, but let's tell the truth of what really is going on
• 2:53
  here. Let me explain to you.
• 2:54
  I'm sorry, I'm putting you in your place, aren't I?
• 2:58
  You are. But it's OK, I will take it.
• 3:00
  You're smiling. I will take it with joy.
• 3:03
  So here's what's going on. There's this what we call during
• 3:07
  the summer, if you know, I've talked about it all summer,
• 3:10
  well, last year. These what are called
• 3:12
  anticyclones. A cyclone is a storm system.
• 3:16
  A hurricane can be called a cyclone and a big low pressure
• 3:19
  area can be called a cyclone. A little dust towel can be
• 3:22
  called a little cyclone. A cyclone is basically a
• 3:24
  cyclonic circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that is a
• 3:27
  counterclockwise circulation around a low pressure area.
• 3:30
  The anticyclone is the opposite of a cyclone.
• 3:35
  And so what's happening right now, a big anticyclone is
• 3:39
  forming over Arizona. And as we're recording this, it
• 3:43
  is a strong upper level high or anticyclone.
• 3:48
  During the summer. We call them heat wave creating
• 3:50
  machines, but this is summer grade.
• 3:53
  This is the strength of a summer anticyclone.
• 3:58
  If it were during the summer, I'd say it's pretty strong.
• 4:01
  So what is going on? But what happens when you have
• 4:04
  these anticyclones and it's center over Arizona is forcing
• 4:07
  the jet stream to be way up to the north and it's creating the
• 4:11
  conditions for this tremendous heat by fire danger, some wind
• 4:15
  and eventually the wind will calm down and then it'll end up
• 4:19
  being just hot and dry. Very bad news for the snow in
• 4:23
  the Colorado Rockies and in the West because this is going to
• 4:27
  cause early snowmelt and there is not a snowpack.
• 4:31
  So that's a big factor for those for that industry and for the
• 4:35
  Plains. It's like, Oh my gosh, is this
• 4:38
  the beginning of summer? It's March weather madness.
• 4:45
  All right. Oh no.
• 4:48
  In fact, one of the concerns and a few of you do have our weather
• 4:52
  tool. Again, it's very valuable to for
• 4:55
  you tool for you to have. It's called our Weather Vision
• 4:58
  dashboard from Weather 2020, and it shows frost and freezes
• 5:04
  possible in April, right? So the pattern is going to cycle
• 5:09
  and the colder part of the pattern is going to cycle back
• 5:11
  through. Maybe it'll stop at 38° and not
• 5:14
  be a freeze or frost, or maybe it'll just be a light frost and
• 5:18
  not a damaging hard freeze. Let's hope that's the case, but
• 5:23
  just know the Weather 2020 model that you can have in your
• 5:28
  arsenal and your weather tool chest is showing that and has
• 5:34
  been showing that and it has been talked about by some of our
• 5:37
  customers. Is that still showing up?
• 5:39
  The beauty of the LRC? Of course it's still showing up
• 5:43
  because the pattern is that consistent.
• 5:47
  This heat, we'll call it a March heat wave.
• 5:49
  I usually wouldn't, but when it's 107 in Phoenix, 90 Saturday
• 5:55
  in Denver and 88 in Kansas City, 91 in Manhattan, KS on Saturday
• 6:04
  and it feels like 97, it'll give me a hard time.
• 6:11
  That's a heat wave. So especially over the last
• 6:13
  three days and it's sort of lasting 3-4 days, it'll
• 6:16
  breakdown. There will be more chances of
• 6:18
  rain and thunderstorms. The concern for drought is
• 6:21
  strongest over Nebraska. We can talk about that next, but
• 6:25
  just know a possible frost or freeze is coming.
• 6:28
  I just had a very tragedy in our family, a death in the family.
• 6:33
  And so I had to go to Kansas City the last few days.
• 6:36
  But I got to drive across Kansas as a result twice.
• 6:40
  And seeing the wheat growing, the wheat is very, very low.
• 6:44
  I'm sure that the frost, the hard freeze, we just had to not
• 6:48
  damage it too much because it was like just sprouting.
• 6:51
  But there's some wheat fields that look healthy and coming in.
• 6:54
  We don't need any more hard freezes.
• 6:56
  And you know, weed is a weed and just needs a little bit of rain.
• 7:00
  There you go. That's my opening statement.
• 7:02
  I love it. I love it.
• 7:04
  It's definitely been March Madness for the weather.
• 7:07
  I think we can all agree on that.
• 7:08
  No matter where you are in the United States, like you could be
• 7:12
  here in the Midwest or you could be in the West, you could be in
• 7:15
  the South, you could be in New York.
• 7:16
  Like, it has been just crazy weather over the past few weeks.
• 7:21
  And you we've talked about it last year too.
• 7:25
  I'm pretty sure it was March Madness weather then too.
• 7:28
  And it's just kind of comes with the season.
• 7:30
  But boy, oh boy, I'm sitting back getting whiplash over here.
• 7:34
  But I'm going to try and go soak up some rain and soak up some
• 7:39
  warmth in Brazil over the next couple weeks.
• 7:42
  And I'll bring back some of that moisture to the Midwest because
• 7:44
  I know we all desperately need it here.
• 7:47
  That is amazing. I'll have to look up after we're
• 7:50
  done here. I'll go look up Brazils forecast
• 7:52
  for you. You need to get access to this
• 7:54
  weather tool because you can call up Brazil and get the day
• 7:58
  by day forecast down there too. So that's fantastic.
• 8:02
  Yeah, this March Weather Madness is more extreme than most
• 8:06
  marches. But yes, you are correct.
• 8:09
  Last year was also March Weather Madness, and I'll say it next
• 8:13
  year. But this one's going to be more
• 8:15
  memorable in certain parts of the country because it is like
• 8:19
  when it goes from 90 when when it is 90 in Kansas City, it
• 8:24
  might be 90s. I'm forecasting 88 right now,
• 8:27
  but if it's 90 it'll have gone from 8 to 90 in the same week.
• 8:33
  It was 8° the other morning I was there.
• 8:37
  I had to take the dogs out for a walk and it was very very cold
• 8:42
  with a wind chill of 20 below. So it could go from 20 below to
• 8:46
  90. It'll be 110°.
• 8:48
  Or if you want to add the feels like temperature on the pavement
• 8:52
  120 be 150°. Contrast if you had the pavement
• 8:56
  temperature. Craziness.
• 8:58
  I tell you what, I want to talk about drought a little bit,
• 9:01
  especially some drought concerns in Nebraska.
• 9:04
  Nebraska in the Sandhills region, we saw over, oh gosh,
• 9:09
  what is it now? 700,000 acres burn in the
• 9:12
  Sandhills last week. And so there's a lot of concern
• 9:16
  across the plains for drought over the past year.
• 9:19
  We saw fires in southern Kansas and the Panhandle of Oklahoma
• 9:24
  last month and now we're seeing this again.
• 9:26
  Everyone's got that question on their minds of when are we going
• 9:29
  to get some moisture? When are we going to start being
• 9:31
  able to battle this drought so that it's not once one really
• 9:34
  well timed spark in a gust of wind and our operations are
• 9:38
  devastated. So what are kind of your
• 9:39
  thoughts on our drought concern as we continue to go forward and
• 9:44
  I'm just any other thoughts do you have on that as we?
• 9:46
  Move into a great question and what I would like to do here.
• 9:51
  Hold on just a second. I want to just share my screen
• 9:53
  so you can see it and the viewers can see if they're
• 9:56
  watching this. But share screen real quick.
• 9:59
  I want to show you this as it is very important here.
• 10:02
  We are in an echo chamber, but look at this.
• 10:05
  Can you see that this is Nebraska and Kansas?
• 10:11
  What we're looking at here is the forecast from now to May.
• 10:16
  And when you hover over the counties, this is on our Weather
• 10:19
  2020 Vision dashboard, we can see that it is .5 and what is
• 10:24
  brown area, .6 in this lighter shade brown area and then .7 and
• 10:32
  .9 in southeast Nebraska. What is .5 to .9 mean?
• 10:37
  That means 50 to 90% of average rainfall. 50% is a huge problem
• 10:43
  that is not going to help. And any drug conditions models
• 10:47
  predicting significant dryness to continue over western
• 10:51
  Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and really most of Nebraska, SE 1/3
• 10:57
  of Nebraska, it's 80 to 90% of average.
• 10:59
  So if you can get near average precipitation, it may be OK.
• 11:03
  So as you get towards the Corn Belt away from the winter wheat
• 11:07
  regions, then it may just be OK. We can look at bio as well.
• 11:12
  But in Kansas, it does have northwest Kansas at 60% of
• 11:16
  average rainfall and then a large chunk of Kansas near or
• 11:20
  above average precipitation from near Kansas City, which is A1,
• 11:24
  which is 100% of average rain. So Kansas looks better than
• 11:28
  Nebraska. It's been consistent.
• 11:30
  If there's any hope, what we'll look for is in April, will this
• 11:34
  wet weather over eastern Kansas expand north and West towards
• 11:38
  Nebraska or will the Nebraska dryness shift farther South and
• 11:43
  east? So that is the question that
• 11:45
  we're going to be monitoring closely.
• 11:47
  But as you can see here, that is what it is showing there.
• 11:52
  And, and so the, I'm concerned about drought over Nebraska,
• 11:58
  especially into Colorado. But when you get into the corn,
• 12:02
  get into Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, there may be a few
• 12:05
  spots that are are struggling, but right now it looks like it
• 12:10
  may be OK. I'm not saying is great and
• 12:13
  ideal. Sometimes just OK actually is
• 12:16
  ideal for corn. So we'll have to just time that
• 12:19
  rain out. So that's something to think
• 12:21
  about for learning about corn yield or your trading in
• 12:25
  commodities or whatever. Just know that that's what looks
• 12:29
  like the brass is a big struggle.
• 12:31
  What does that mean? You know, in the winter week you
• 12:33
  don't need much precipitation. So a little bit of drought is
• 12:36
  OK, but you don't want extreme drought.
• 12:38
  Yeah, for sure. I mean, we've talked about it
• 12:40
  before. Droughts are either expanding or
• 12:42
  shrinking. That is another thing I have
• 12:44
  learned from you, Mr. Gary, is droughts are either expanding or
• 12:47
  shrinking. And so I think it's just a big
• 12:49
  concern as we look across the plains, look across a lot of our
• 12:53
  western regions, as you've talked about before, we had a
• 12:57
  really dry winter and a lot of people are concerned about a dry
• 13:01
  spring as we go into some pretty critical months for growing our
• 13:06
  summer grasses and different things like that across cattle
• 13:09
  countries, very definitely something we want to keep an eye
• 13:12
  on. When you get back from Brazil in
• 13:15
  three weeks, we will talk about that and by then we will know
• 13:19
  the trend, OK, it might become obvious for where you're living,
• 13:23
  but maybe not. So we will go really over the
• 13:25
  details of where is expanding because if it is expanding is in
• 13:29
  three weeks, it's going to continue, 90% chance that would
• 13:33
  continue. So we don't want to see that.
• 13:35
  We want to see it shrinking and how is it going to be shrinking
• 13:37
  Storm systems will start producing widespread rain, I
• 13:40
  don't see that. So I think it's going to be an
• 13:42
  expanding drought, big concern for Nebraska, and then we have
• 13:46
  to watch the edges of it over eastern Nebraska and Iowa and
• 13:49
  Kansas City area into Missouri. Awesome, Amazing.
• 13:52
  I'm excited to be able to kind of dive a little bit deeper into
• 13:56
  that in a few weeks and really get that confirmation.
• 13:59
  Because right now we're we're able to sit here and we're like,
• 14:01
  we really think it's leaning this way or we really think it's
• 14:04
  leaning this way. But just give it some time.
• 14:06
  We'll be able to get some of that more confirmation for
• 14:08
  people so that they can continue to plan and forecast as they go
• 14:12
  into those summer months as they prepare for those heat waves
• 14:14
  that we're going to be seen as they prepare for severe weather
• 14:17
  outbreaks, all of those things. And on those notes, get any
• 14:21
  other kind of findings or any other thoughts on severe weather
• 14:24
  or our summer heat waves that we're going to be seeing coming
• 14:27
  soon? Yes, you know, the heat stress
• 14:29
  for the cattle out there. We know it's going to happen.
• 14:33
  The cattle ranchers out there, the dairy farms, you know how to
• 14:37
  deal with it and how to prepare for it.
• 14:40
  But just know that the major heat wave is likely in August.
• 14:44
  Before that, we'll look for some heat like we're having now in
• 14:47
  May and then, and then it'll expand in in July and August.
• 14:51
  But we'll just try to time that out for you.
• 14:53
  When I was driving across Kansas, I saw one cow or bull, I
• 14:58
  don't know, I don't know, Sometimes they look the same to
• 15:00
  me, but I might sound naive there, I probably am, But I saw
• 15:05
  one just sitting there. Maybe it was napping, but I was
• 15:08
  like, is it? It was all by itself.
• 15:10
  So I was all sad because there's this one cow sitting there.
• 15:14
  Well, it's calving season. Maybe it was a cow off having
• 15:17
  her calf because when when cows go and have calves, they like to
• 15:20
  go isolate themselves. So so.
• 15:22
  That's what I think. I think that's what was
• 15:24
  happening. It was calving, so let's hope
• 15:27
  so. I was just scared.
• 15:28
  I was like, no, poor babe. So I love it.
• 15:33
  I love it. Well, as far as severe weather
• 15:35
  outbreaks go. Any thoughts on that?
• 15:37
  So far we're 2 for two and our predictions this season on our
• 15:40
  severe weather yield, we're 90% accurate on those.
• 15:43
  We're expecting a small one sometime between now and April
• 15:47
  2nd. So there's going to be a severe
• 15:49
  weather potential parts of the Kansas, Missouri and down
• 15:54
  farther South and then there's going to be a few big setups
• 15:58
  especially in May. So I'll time those out for you
• 16:02
  as we get closer. Wonderful.
• 16:04
  Well, any other thoughts, comments, concerns, anything
• 16:07
  else that we didn't touch on that we need to make sure that
• 16:09
  we had on today, Gary. No, I just need to get my
• 16:12
  workouts in. I'm in pretty good shape and I I
• 16:15
  slacked slightly, only I'm eating.
• 16:18
  When I was in New York, I had so many desserts and I just think
• 16:24
  that's I went from 174 lbs, which is really a skinny weight
• 16:28
  for me, to 183, but I'm stronger.
• 16:31
  I'm lifting heavier, but I think I need to be about 178.
• 16:35
  I am not bad obviously, I just need I'd be a little extra
• 16:38
  critical, but I did go up 9 lbs in about a month.
• 16:42
  One month period. Yes, the desserts will do that
• 16:45
  to you, especially when you're traveling.
• 16:47
  I I get that it's a nice day and I need to get off of this and I
• 16:51
  need to go on one of my runs. I am training for 1/2 marathon
• 16:55
  still, so I need to go on a go on a run and get my booty out
• 16:59
  there and go enjoy some of this nice weather that we are getting
• 17:02
  blessed with, right? Now, so let me show you my
• 17:04
  little baby here. This thing right here.
• 17:08
  This is sunny. Hi, Sunny.
• 17:09
  And Sunny is going to be 11 years old next week.
• 17:13
  So sunny girl. Wow.
• 17:16
  Crazy. So she'll be alone and I'll be
• 17:19
  celebrating on social media, you know, So I'll be good.
• 17:22
  As you should as. You should.
• 17:25
  Where's Lauren? Hi, Sunny, I love it.
• 17:28
  Well, we will be celebrating Sunny, that is for sure over the
• 17:31
  next few weeks. And Gary, I cannot wait to get
• 17:34
  back from Brazil and be able to touch base again on everything
• 17:37
  that is happening in. Yes, I know I cannot wait to
• 17:41
  share some more as we go through it.
• 17:44
  We're doing AG tours all across the country of Brazil for two
• 17:47
  weeks. So we do three domestic flights
• 17:50
  while we're there too. So we're bebopping all around
• 17:52
  the country quite a bit and so going to be able to see a lot of
• 17:55
  things and get ticks, experience a different side of agriculture.
• 17:59
  Very excited to go see a feed lot and also a family farm
• 18:03
  operation is. Awesome.
• 18:04
  We have a couple customers down in Argentina and Brazil.
• 18:07
  So say if you bump into any of them, tell them hi.
• 18:10
  Absolutely, I definitely will. Well, Gary, as always, thank you
• 18:13
  for your time. And to all of you listeners out
• 18:14
  there, make sure you check out the show notes down below to see
• 18:18
  any of Gary's links. Get that Weather 2020 Vision
• 18:20
  dashboard. You can see all of what he
• 18:23
  talked about today or what he shared.
• 18:24
  If you saw that dashboard today and you're like, oh wow, that's
• 18:27
  actually really interesting. Make sure you check out those
• 18:29
  show notes down below and you can get more information on that
• 18:32
  and use our exclusive Cable USA partnership link as well.
• 18:36
  Thank you for listening to another episode and we will.
• 18:38
  We'll see you all next time. Good one y'all.