Latest / The Curve / Investing in a Trump Era: What’s Coming Next?

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Investing in a Trump Era: What’s Coming Next? · The Curve

• 0:00
  Before we get into this episode, I just wanted to say, for anyone who is thinking, oh my
• 0:09
  good God, what is happening in the markets right now, how do I invest in a way that's
• 0:14
  not, you know, scary if we're being totally honest, everything happening in America right
• 0:19
  now is reasonably terrifying and what we're seeing in the markets is that they are having
• 0:25
  a really rough time so we're hosting a free workshop on Tuesday, this coming Tuesday for anyone
• 0:31
  that would like to come and just feel a little bit more confident and it comes to why and how
• 0:36
  you can invest in the current environment and in this particular conversation that we have
• 0:41
  with Zoe Wallace, who is an investing expert from Tempo, which is a guided investing app,
• 0:46
  she speaks so much about how we can invest in a really diversified, clever way given what's
• 0:56
  happening in America right now and there's some really great takeaways from her about the things
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  that we can be doing to kind of mitigate risk and invest in a way that's actually going to
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  hopefully grow our portfolios, our portfolios as well. So we hope that you enjoy it, there's going
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  to be three of these episodes, so one this week and then one next week and week after and each
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  conversation with Zoe is going to be focusing on a key thing like something that's happening in
• 1:23
  the market that is interesting and worth looking at and so this week we are looking at Trump
• 1:31
  and what's happening in America which you might be sick of hearing about but if you're investing or
• 1:36
  you want to grow your money through investing it's a really important conversation to be on top of
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  so we hope you enjoy and here is the episode. Okay, but you're being outsmarted today, we have
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  got another investing expert on the podcast. Zoe, welcome. Thank you, exciting to be here.
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  We are doing an amazing partnership at the moment with Tempo, which is guided investing. So
• 2:02
  when you join Tempo you answer a whole lot of questions about like who you are and what your goals
• 2:08
  and then they're able to recommend particular funds that will suit what you're trying to achieve
• 2:14
  behind the amazing front end that you see is investing experts like Zoe who are helping make these
• 2:22
  investment decisions and recommendations and so we thought it would be cool to get the brains on
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  the podcast, not the only brains we must say there is a whole team of experts but to be able to
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  pull someone out and just feel like can we just chat to you and ask a few questions this very
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  exciting. So thank you so much for joining us on the podcast. You're very welcome. I feel like
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  that's quite a lot of pressure after I try. I just think when it comes to investing products
• 2:51
  or services or the financial space there isn't a huge amount of understanding from the everyday
• 2:56
  person of what those things mean and I think when someone here has guided a bestsegg they're like
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  amazing because it means I'm not having to make all the decisions myself dream but you also have
• 3:08
  visibility on what you're doing. I think that that makes sense that then the question of well who
• 3:13
  is who's the face behind this or or who is the expert like it's nice to put a face to an end so I
• 3:20
  think that to be able to kind of hear your expert and your insights on investing will make people
• 3:25
  probably feel a lot more comfortable and excited about the idea of trying Tempo so I think as someone
• 3:31
  was your average punter let's just say average punter your average punter that sounds like I'm
• 3:37
  going skiing. It sounds like you're gambling. Yeah. Oh my god. Every punter is like you're punting
• 3:42
  the math. No you're punting punting on a horse. No punting. No you're all just thinking money
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  punting in the everyday person that's not the bestseggier. Yeah yeah like you're a punter like I'm
• 3:52
  a punter I've like pizza all the way down the hill. It's not your punter means you're a beginner.
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  No. Does it not? Right. We will go punting about. A person who places a bet. Right. Well that's
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  not that's not what we're not encouraging them at all. So you've worked in investing for a long time.
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  Can you just give us a really quick overview of your career? What you studied the sorts of jobs
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  that you've had and how you've landed as you know me describing this in a missing expert like how
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  did you get there? Sure. So I studied economics and finance a very boring standard grade for the
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  industry I would say. Probably. Yeah. Yeah. There we go. But I did actually start doing a bit of
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  side on psychology and maybe we can come back to that because it's actually quite interesting. I
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  think there is a huge amount of psychology when it comes to investor. I wish I'd done so. Yeah. I
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  kind of wish I could say it actually but not necessarily for money just because I think it's so
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  interesting. Yeah yeah. And then I started my career at the Reserve Bank so very standard economics
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  path but more in the financial market space. So I actually never looked in the economics team but
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  very much financial markets focus. So okay what's going on with the currency? What was going on with
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  global equity markets and how that might impact New Zealand? I then went over to London for a
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  couple of years to DOE thing. Decided to come back for a little bit and then ended up staying back
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  but did I sense that you met someone you fell along this day? I felt like you really skimmed
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  over that I'm assuming that's what that meant. Well yeah I came back for a year because I got a
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  great job offer to come back to the Reserve Bank and be a portfolio manager and so came back to do
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  that for a bit and see how that went and then I met my husband and the rest is Australia. Yeah
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  so a lot of your job tell me if this is wrong but this is my interpretation is you are very aware
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  of what's happening around the world you do a lot of research that inform investing decisions
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  so you look at trends you look at what economies are doing you look at stock markets it's you really
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  have like quite a full picture of what's happening when it comes to money business the world
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  that that's the sort of information or lens that you make investing decisions and and recommend
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  others to make particular investing decisions based on what you think from that research is that
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  like the most simplified way of saying yeah I think like my my sort of particular way I come at it
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  is it's from a very much top-down point of view so you think about big picture what's going on
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  the global economy what's going on with Trump what's happening with New Zealand and you know
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  interest rate cuts go to start helping people in the everyday lives and help you know reduce living
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  costs or help people make their mortgage payments better um all of those sort of pieces and how
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  that impacts what happens with investments obviously so what happens with fixed income investments
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  and bonds or what happens with global equity markets I'm just going to pull out from this and say
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  does that then mean let's just say interest rates are skyrocketing that then means some
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  investments do well and some don't so you're you're aware so that means that you could help people
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  balance their portfolios and where they put money based on where they're going to get better returns
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  yeah exactly so for example take that sort of interest rate example you know when interest rates skyrocketed
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  in following covert for example the New Zealand local equity market in aggregate tends to be quite
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  interest rates sensitive and so when interest rate value it's you're so smart you know when you're
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  like you really have to say I'm not I mean this which we're sorry no no she just means that
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  the New Zealand stock market tends to do worse when interest rates are rising so the decision
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  would be like let's not invest money in New Zealand let's invest money elsewhere into countries or
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  sectors where that do well when interest rates are rising like banks for example do do well and
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  tend to do well depending on what's driving the interest rate rise but tend to do well in a rising
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  interesting environment so that's what you mean by top down yeah and then you look at the banks
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  and you get okay which which one of the banks you know you're you're filtering it down going okay
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  interest rates are increasing yeah so it's doing that top down approach that you were talking about
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  in terms of okay which country will do well if this happens in the world okay which sectors
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  within that country okay which companies in that sector so you're like filtering down and creating
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  a portfolio that's going to do well from a top down you or creating fun that's going to do well yeah
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  and so out of that it's probably not you know oh interest rates are going up in New Zealand we're
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  going to pull all our money out in New Zealand and we're going to put in Australian banks and it's more
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  just at the moment we think there's a relatively advantageous macro environment like top down
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  big picture economy environment in Australia versus New Zealand for example or
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  see most versus New Zealand and therefore we tilt a little bit more money that way
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  so it'd be like okay cool we've got 50% in Australia right now 50% in New Zealand but we can see
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  everyone's there's like a mess exit us to from New Zealand to Australia at the moment
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  particularly young people in terms of immigration so I thought oh actually the Australian economy is
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  doing better let's put 70% of the money into Australia and only 30% in New Zealand until that
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  that comes back into favour essentially and then you might switch that back to more 50-50 so it's
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  kind of it's not these big swings that you see it up like oh Australia is doing well let's
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  pull all our money out of New Zealand put in Australia it's like let's just increase the
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  percentage allocation a little bit so that we can get a bit of return because Australia is
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  going to do well that's what we think yeah okay so okay so let's just say watermelons are not
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  in season if someone's continuing to try and buy watermelons and they're really expensive and
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  they're not in season it probably makes sense if they bought different types of fruit for that period
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  of time yeah yep you know it's that you say the idea that it might not make sense to have your
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  money spending money on this right now because it's more expensive or it's not yeah it's more um
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  if you saw a whole lot of people not buying a certain product you wouldn't keep
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  investing in that products I feel like actually this computer so it looks like it's actually
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  doing better it might do better for another couple of years let's put more money in
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  best in that company that seems to be doing better and then when the other one sorts itself out
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  and maybe starts getting a bit more competitive again we'll put money back into that company
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  because that's going to do better so you're trying to you're not timing the market but you're
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  trying to make the most of these fine conditions or like if you were a watermelon farmer yeah
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  you want to plant your seeds where you think the weather conditions are the best where the climate
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  is going to be favorable where you're going to have an easy customer base all of the things that
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  you know kind of would help your business yeah so you want your climate to be favorable
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  to start and then you've got to get your fundamentals right as a watermelon farmer
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  I'm just thinking if I ejected myself from this conversation you too it would be on fire you know
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  like if there wasn't someone they'd like hold on excuse me wait just by then Ian
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  tempo is a brand new investing app available in New Zealand and we're so excited to be
• 10:57
  telling you about how it works and how you can use it so in 2023 tempo conducted a survey with
• 11:04
  a thousand Kiwis and they found that 27% didn't know where to start when it comes to investing
• 11:10
  and that's a lot of people so the great thing about tempo is that their goal is to take the
• 11:15
  guesswork out of investing so when you sign up they ask questions like how do you feel about
• 11:21
  the idea of your investments going up and down because some do more than others you tell them how
• 11:25
  much you want to save and they recommend a mix of their funds for you it's guided investing so
• 11:30
  you're getting investment advice from the experts which is very very cool and because they track
• 11:35
  your goal progress so they can see actually how you're going they can also recommend that you change
• 11:40
  your investments and the mix of how you invest it over time which is really great so if you would
• 11:45
  like to try tempo you can get a $10 kickstart into your account and if you would like to learn more
• 11:50
  about tempo you can head to the link in the podcast show notes okay could we maybe use an example
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  for people who are listening and thinking okay I kind of get it but like how do tempo or how
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  does Zoe make a recommendation about investments based on what's happening in the world so let's
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  look at what has happened in America because Trump and like we've spoken about it a lot just about
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  the way in which what we're seeing and like totally just predicting and chatting between the two of us
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  as to like what we think is going to happen so could we use that as an example as a trend or
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  something that's happening and then how you might advise or give direction for people when it comes
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  to where their money is going based on what we're seeing I think this is a really good one because
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  it's like very high level when I look at everything that's going on with Trump and America if I was
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  looking at a way to invest and what's going on at the very high level but like do I think over the
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  next four years where he's in power that America is going to do better or worse that would kind of
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  be my standard thinking if I was and then it's like if it's going to be better than I want to invest
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  in America if it's going to be worse then I'll be investing elsewhere that's quite interesting
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  that's like as simple as you think and then there's all these other things in within that of like
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  different sectors different companies like obviously the tariffs and inflation everything's going
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  to be impacting you know there's going to be nuances beneath that but like that's kind of my
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  high level thinking and there will be reverberations around the world because a lot of US companies
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  are global that but to try and come back to how we're explaining before of like a top down it's
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  like do you think something's going to be better or worse therefore you're in best more or less the
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  other element I'd add is that you know we we went and looked back through political cycles and
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  you know doesn't matter if it's a Republican or a Democrat actually the answer over history is not
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  really so right-leaning policies left-leaning policies actually what problem is a bigger
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  driver of what happens with financial markets with equities with stock prices is where you're at
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  in your economic cycle and by that I mean you know actually the US economy is really solid at the
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  moment they've got an unemployment rate of 4% that's really low consumers are still looking really
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  healthy and spending lots of money all of those things are a big tailwind and so that macro economic
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  environments helpful so that gives you a good starting point but then you've got Trump probably
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  adding quite a bit of volatility based on what we've seen in terms of market reactions movement
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  up and down yeah exactly so just sort of you know people trading on headlines and sort of shock
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  and or announcements on X that have come out and we saw that yeah not that longer and he was like
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  we're going to put on tariffs yeah oh no we're not oh yes we are it's like oh my goodness it's you
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  know that he does he's he's not you to put on politician headlines he's shoot from the hip see how
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  this reacts oh this wasn't what I expected okay all reversed that whereas he's probably
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  being fun doing all right he's probably looking at the markets they can suckers they pulled their money
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  out thinking that was going to happen and then it goes off and they're like I knew I could like
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  he would betray the Shibuya one day he's probably trading on true yeah he's probably like no surely
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  that's about Trump coin yeah yeah yeah hot Trump coin he's got his own he's got some cryptocurrency
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  cryptocurrency so he started his own crypto and then was like U.S. is going to be the crypto capital
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  the world and then it just took off and they bought 60 yeah there's some I mean he's money clever
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  yeah gotta give him credit for that but there's yeah like and he's got one eye coin as well there's
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  what Melania Melania this is Melania coin yeah I feel like we're living in like the Sims game or
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  like it feels too ridiculous to be really money out of money yeah so then let's just
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  zoom out for his exo let's say so this is all happening you've got the on one side the idea that
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  whoever's empowered doesn't actually impact the in isolation the stock market but then you layer
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  on Trump and his like all over the show decision making what is your view on what's happening or
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  what's going to happen across the next four years yeah so look if you take a step back as an investor
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  hopefully if you're investing in shares for example then your time price and as a minimum of
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  five to seven years right so theoretically you also want to be looking through a lot of this noise
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  so you know if you invested in your portfolio today and there was some U.S. you had a nice
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  diversified portfolio you could almost or you should almost close that down and not look it up for you
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  gone holiday go to the desert island yeah and a lot of that volatility those ups and downs will
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  kind of work themselves out over time when you think about that long term investing horizon that's
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  really what you want to focus on so coming back to so your fundamentals of making sure you've got
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  you're not just you know all in U.S. stocks for example you should have some other international
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  shares and some new them and shares and Australian shares and your portfolio so also just
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  depending on how much risky you want to take so how prepared you are to sort of experience some of
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  those ups and downs might mean that you're not invested just in stocks is that you might look at
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  some other assets as well it's like what you said before about america being a really strong
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  position with unemployment being really low and all of that it's like yes but you still
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  want to be diversified because there's always things that we can't see around the corner so
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  you don't want to put a hundred percent of your portfolio into america for the next five seven
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  years it's like you need to pull your money out and is that what you mean or are you just
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  I just mean in general you just diversifying in general because it's like you never know what's
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  going to happen but I think diversify in long term and taking that long term five year plus horizon
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  is to the key things that you can do when we're in a volatile environment which we're going to
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  have for the next four years but I I guess my question is like I'm not planning on
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  not investing for the long term like I'm still going to continue to invest in the stock market
• 17:51
  in the US I'm going to invest in other places I think there's a really important point but like
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  for people that are just curious to see like what's going to happen in the next four years
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  like I just want to know what your thoughts are because you've done a lot of research it's
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  I'm not going to be making investment decisions to try and like make a quick win in six months time
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  but like I just would love to know what you think about what we're going to say because you're
• 18:13
  you're in investment knowledge and your research is is so like focused on these types of things
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  I'm just keen to hear what you think yeah for sure so when Trump came in and there was sort of
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  four key things he he basically campaigned on so one was tariffs other was immigration he's been
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  really quick out of the sort of blocks on implementing those so you know he's very quickly come down
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  on border control you know so what you've seen in the US over the last couple years is a huge inflow
• 18:41
  and migrants crossing the border into the US and to be honest that's been actually quite helpful
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  for the US economy because some of those what happened to us post-COVID we had a real shortage
• 18:50
  of workers so to the US and those immigrants helped meet some of that demand and alleviate some of
• 18:56
  those shortages of people to fill jobs and there was really strong demand for those people
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  so he's cracked down on that he's cracked down on Ontario so kind of coming quite quickly now
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  but the other two key pieces he campaigned on so one was deregulation so just less red tape
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  that's something we've been talking about in New Zealand as well so just fraying up companies to
• 19:16
  have a bit more autonomy less hoops to jump through perhaps from a legal perspective
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  tends to make business go faster and more efficiently which I find quite counterintuitive
• 19:25
  considering his implementing tariffs you know let the whole deregulation is just like let's just
• 19:30
  let things flow and let them market free market yeah let's make things work and just like yeah no
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  red tape no hoops to jump through yet he's now slapping on tariffs to be like we want everything
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  that it can be to be produced in America yeah it's like but what if there's a country
• 19:49
  whether they can do it better and quicker and get the whole point of freedom and then what was
• 19:53
  the fourth one the fourth one is taxes so he's promised to extend personal tax cuts that are
• 19:59
  in place at the moment which would you to roll off he's also promised to cut the corporate tax
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  in 2021 seemed to fifth day which is quite a quite a low corporate tax right that's almost as
• 20:08
  low as you can go basically and so what do you think all of those things how do you think they will
• 20:12
  impact what we'll see in the stock market and business success and hard to say an aggregate depends
• 20:18
  on the company is probably the cheat's answer but look I think you've seen two of them which are
• 20:23
  quite punitive so the two things he's done tend to be punitive sorry um pretty harsh in terms of
• 20:30
  the implication yes yep so the tariffs are likely to be inflationary so what it means is that
• 20:36
  when a foreign company sends it good to the US because US wants it the company who's imported that
• 20:44
  has to pay a premium when it lands in the port in the US has to pay their tariff
• 20:48
  they're 10% or 25% whatever Trump ends up deciding that cost at that point the business has a
• 20:55
  choice right do I wear that cost myself and just take it out of my profits or do I pass it onto
• 21:00
  the end consumer and if you're running a business and you've suddenly seen your cost of them
• 21:05
  like your cost of goods that you're going to sell go up 25% what you're probably going to do if you
• 21:10
  can possibly get away with it as I pass it on to the end consumer so for the average America and
• 21:16
  what it'll mean is that the cost of imports goes up and there's lots of things that the US imports
• 21:21
  so cars has been a key one in the spotlight things that come from Mexico examples avocado,
• 21:26
  tequila, beer you know all the fun stuff yeah it will stir it from Canada yeah and so the cost
• 21:35
  of those for the US consumer goes up which isn't great when that's you know you and me if we're
• 21:40
  sitting in the America sorry then the cost of average shop would probably start going up or
• 21:46
  feel a bit best well off that's not a great feeling so it pushes up what we call inflation
• 21:51
  but it also means that you're going to have probably a little bit less disposable income you might
• 21:55
  not be feeling quite so positive about how things are going in the economy and it tends to damp
• 22:00
  and economic growth and how much activity there is so this was what we spoke about in the care of
• 22:05
  weekly about impacting corporate profits so overall it's estimated about two to three percent
• 22:12
  overall impacts and again it's so sick to specific in companies this specific but I can never say
• 22:18
  that word I don't know if it's so funny because as soon as you say that word it's like it's just
• 22:23
  I like can't cause a share what to say sorry it does depend on which company in which sector
• 22:29
  but overall yeah about two to three percent of an impact on corporate profits so but so then what
• 22:37
  do we say so happen you know like because that's I understand that from a consumer standpoint that
• 22:42
  makes total sense but how does that then in turn come back to what we see from business success
• 22:47
  well so I guess the other question as we know or not Trump does manage to get his tax custard
• 22:52
  because if Trump can deliver those corporate tax cuts that takes their effective tax rate from
• 22:56
  21 to 15 and that's a big boost because that's more money that those businesses get to keep
• 23:00
  on their bottom line so they might have to charge more to customers a really cost has gone up
• 23:06
  so they kind of net net that's but because their corporate taxes it means they're
• 23:10
  actually because their corporate taxes are down they probably net net will have a
• 23:16
  increase in profit I mean it's it's not up late yeah depending on where they yeah where they
• 23:21
  learn so what I'm hearing here what depends it depends yeah no no what I'm hearing fine
• 23:27
  doesn't see yeah life will be more expensive for the average American probably pretty route like
• 23:33
  that's quite likely secondly there is a chance actually that businesses in the US particularly
• 23:40
  maybe aren't worse off and also third part that is if really who's in power doesn't have an
• 23:47
  enormous impact on the stock market long term these are chance that the stock market's not going
• 23:52
  to take a giant nose dive like a lot of people are probably thinking or feeling or worrying about
• 23:57
  is that kind of like a fair enough summary yeah and if you hold the S&P 500 ETF or a diversified
• 24:05
  fund or portfolio there's going to be some that do well out of this there's going to be some that
• 24:09
  aren't but that's almost your best bet rather than trying to pick the ones that do and wait
• 24:13
  the ones that don't because we know that Trump's just so shoots from the hip so you might be like
• 24:19
  yes I fix the ones that are going to do well in this environment and then tomorrow you wake up
• 24:22
  and he's announced that I don't know I can come into America ever again you've already seen that as
• 24:27
  well yeah some of the kind of favorable Trump trades that were in fashion you know even as recently
• 24:32
  as November yeah aren't the ones that necessarily are doing as well and similar to what we saw
• 24:38
  during his first presidency was some you know the initial kind of opportunities around winners didn't
• 24:44
  end up necessarily being the ones that actually did that well for broader economic reasons or
• 24:49
  more than cyclical reasons so then taking from that then from an investment standpoint if his
• 24:54
  people are listening trying to figure out where they want to put their money the best and safest
• 24:59
  option really is to be like as diversified as possible and to not be thinking about those quick
• 25:04
  ones like oh I think because Tesla and Elon Musk and Trump are in bed together and they're blah blah
• 25:10
  it's like yeah you don't necessarily know what's going to happen you're much better to be going broad
• 25:16
  is that kind of the overarching take where yeah trading on fiscal policy and I'm saying trading
• 25:20
  not investing here you know short term it can be really dangerous right and particularly with
• 25:25
  someone as volatile as Trump because you might back or you know back your winners that look like winners
• 25:30
  week one don't look like winners week four okay I feel like that's a really insightful good tag in
• 25:39
  the next check-in that we do the next week can we focus on another trend I'd love to go
• 25:45
  in debt for the trend but then also answer some questions so if you're listening to this and you're
• 25:49
  thinking perfect I don't want to actually ask Victoria my question I want to ask Zoe then
• 25:57
  send us a message either comment on this podcast with anything that you want her to answer send us
• 26:02
  a DM whatever works for you if you're in the in the investing club you can comment in there
• 26:07
  and we will collate those and come back and we'll do another I think a themed conversation is
• 26:12
  quite cool and then we can take some listener questions sounds correct I'm like watch out for it
• 26:22
  thank you so much for joining us Zoe thank you thank you so much for joining us for our
• 26:28
  tempo temperature checks really need to brainstorm creatively and not choose names for segments
• 26:34
  that are very difficult to pronounce but these are essentially conversations to help you understand
• 26:39
  what's going on in the market and really hone in on a specific topic so we hope that you've enjoyed it
• 26:44
  next week we're coming back with another one and until then if you've got any questions or comments
• 26:48
  please do write them below on this podcast episode wherever you're listening to your podcasts