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Best Bets NFL Week 14 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Today is our week fourteenth, Thursday NFL episode. If I
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: look like I'm in a different place, If I sound
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit funny, I apologize. I am in a
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: hotel in Las Vegas doing the podcast early in the
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: morning to get everything you need to get ready for
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: the weekend. In this episode, we will get feedback from
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: the wise guys who listen to the show. We will
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: make our survivor pick and build our money line Underdog
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Round Robin. We're going to give out our Foxhole. We're
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: going to give out our big Balls bet of the week.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: We will narrow down our picks for the free to
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Them contest. As our old pal Colin Cowhard likes to say,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: there's a ce of money out.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: There, because there's a sea of money out there.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: you can check them out on the contest website. Favorites
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: at actionetwork dot com, whit and we lock them in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: before kickoff on Sunday, and if you prefer using the
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: award winning Action app, you can also track all the
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: bets Simon and I lock in by following two accounts
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: to Phase five and the Favorites podcast. Now, let's bring
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: in my co host, my companion, MI compadre, my BFF,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, swim in. I'm a little
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: subdued because I'm in a hotel. I'm recording next to
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: the wall of the room next to me because that's
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: where the best light is facing the window, so I
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: can't be as yelly as I would normally be.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: It's Vegas, baby, you can yell all you want.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I guess that's true. Right. The walls are thick as steel,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: and nobody's awaken eight eight, nobody's sleeping at eight am. No,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: good to see you, buddy.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: To be here, Chad. If people can't tell Chad knows this,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: I am dead. People.
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: I've been traveling, shaking hands with people, and they got me.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: It finally caught up to me.
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: If at any point I just disappear, no, it's for
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: good reason.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: I am probably sick.
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm gonna give my best effort.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: Luckily, this week. Not that every week is easy.
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: Mean, Chad hates when I say that, but this week, Honestly,
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: we talked on Tuesday. A lot of the guys who
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: I talked to, I thought they're gonna be on certain sides.
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: They're on those sides, and not much has changed. So
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: I'm looking forward today because there's been a lot of
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: line movement, Chad, so I got a lot of hate
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: on Tuesday show, and a lot of those lines moved
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: in the directions I thought they were gonna move.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Luckily, Simon, I am in a city built on the
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: backs of people who like to say, oh it's easy.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I am in in Las Vegas. I am in Las Vegas.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: As you know. I saw you too last night at
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: the Sphere, which was just insane. Like everything that everybody
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: has said, it is the visuals, the sound, the show
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: just outrageously awesome. But during the day I had lunch
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: with your predecessor, Bob Scucci aka Scooch. I showed him
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: pictures from the live show, which he was overjoyed. He
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: told me stories about people still coming by to sign
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: books to have him sign books, stories about his wife
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: being on conference calls and someone recognizing her last name
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: and asking if she was related to him. So, for
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: all the old heads who have been listening to the
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: show since the ESPN days, he is thrilled to be remembered.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: We're going to get him on during the season. He
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: looks amazing, still has the best laugh in the business.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the favorite podcast is presented by BED
• 3:59
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• 4:34
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off
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  Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply all right. Week fourteen
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: is approaching opportunities all over the board. Lines have been
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: moving like crazy. Simon, it's time four sharp calls.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain rain telephone rate. Somebody said,
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: want to do.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and clearly the boys like the Jets. The Jets
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: number since our show has moved three points. Chad So,
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: I get it, people, I understood where you're coming from,
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: but that sucks. Like you could have got six and
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: a half. It's down to three and a half. There
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: was just so much moving on that number. Is Zach
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: Wilson really worth three points?
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: What is happening? What is this world we're living in
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: right now? Chad?
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: So?
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: But look, Sonny, that actually raises a question. Should we
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: be thinking about the Texans now?
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: Fuck?
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: No, no, no, no, no, no no, no, no no no.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: That might have made you sick right there when I
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: said that.
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I don't have the energy to go crazy
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: about it. But no, don't stay away from the Texans.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: I don't get it. It looks they're literally the books.
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: You're telling you they're going to lose this game out right.
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: The fact that it's moved this much, and that's all
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: professional money.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm in our app right now, it's still
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: well O.
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: We're sending percent of the bets and the money is
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: on the Houston Texans, and this number has moved three points.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: So stay away.
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: A game I got wrong, took a lot of shit
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: for it, but I'm gonna stand my ground. The pros
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: love the Bills. They love the Bills in the spot chat.
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: I talked to them multiple guys who really liked the
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: Bills playing here. But I don't know about you, but
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: nothing's changed for me. I still like the Chiefs in
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: this spot. I like that Evans trends back it up
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: back in them here because I already just liked it anyway.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: Matchup wise, where you know.
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: Too many pros I talked to there is like, well,
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: the Bills are going to be so desperate.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: This is their season. They know they need to win
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: this to make the playoffs.
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: It's like having the Bills known that for like two
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: months that every game they needed to win to make
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: the playoffs. So I'm not really buying it, and I'm not.
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: I can't get there. On the matchup where the numbers
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: move so much. I just if we have Mahomes and
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: here's the ball. Last chat, I feel like we're gonna win.
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: And I know it didn't work out last week with
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: Green Bay, but it's back to back times where either
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: the receiver failed mahomes.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: Or the referees kind of filled them right.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: That pass interference probably should have got called the previous week.
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: But at this point, I was just shocked to talk
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: to so many guys who liked the bills, and I
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: think the number was minus three two and a half.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: We did the show Tuesday, and now it's down to
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: one and a half. So if you're cautious about it,
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: I totally get it. But I'm gonna keep taking the value,
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: and I think there's value on the Chiefs. I make
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: the number minus three, So that's the game. Obviously, me
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: and you were going to talk about, you know, a
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: game your buddy Simon try to save you from Atlanta.
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: You wanted to take Atlanta. I wouldn't let you do it.
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: I was like, something's fishy about this line. What's that
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: number now, Chad?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: So about one and a half.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: I think it's down to one.
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: It's down to one, brother, So the gut feeling was right,
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: you're supposed to take the bucks in the spot.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: What the fuck are we gonna do here? Chat. Are
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: we really about to take the Bucks in this game?
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: I hate it, and it's moved so much where it's like,
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: this is where I think maybe the value shifted to
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: Atlanta a little, but it's scary. I've talked to multiple
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: guys who love the Bucks. They love the Bucks outright
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: this week, So I don't know what to do with
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: that one. Like the numbers move so much, we're at
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: two and a half. I would have felled comfortbable taken
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: the Bucks. Now it's like, I kind of want to
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: take Atlanta, but I don't like the spot because I
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: know so many pros are on the other side. That's
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: not the best spot to be in.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna need it. I think we
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: got five games as we like, we'll get there, but
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: keep going.
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: Obviously, love your Bears pick and we talked all week
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: about that. It's the classic. Every pro is gonna be
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: on it, and we're all either win together, we're all
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: gonna lose together. It's just that that's what that would
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: be the Bears. The pros will be on the Bears,
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: the public will be on the lines. I told you
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: I was hoping this was gonna go to three and
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: stay at three because that would make me feel better
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: about taking the Bears. But you can still get three
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: and a half, Like there's still a bunch of three
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: and a half's out there, So a little worried about
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: the Bears' coming the dog of the week.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: It did get to three, and they are becoming the
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: public dog right the tickets right now.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: I think we talked about that.
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: I put that on what Evan told us about the weather,
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: where it's like, if it's gonna be windy and wet,
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: we want the RPO team. We don't want to take
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: Detroit that needs to have everything to be perfect for
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: their offense to really click. So yeah, it was just
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: interesting talking to the pros. I love it so much.
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: Just really quick, I'll run through the next two where
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: it's split. The guys are split really on this Rams
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: Ravens game. I think we're getting good value on the Rams.
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: Fuck to plenty of pros who like the Ravens in
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: this spot. They just don't think the Rams are that
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: good of a team and the Ravens. They put him
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: as a top three team AFC in the NFC. If
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: the NFC is any kind of type of decent, the
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: Rams would probably be right there at seven to eight
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: looking in right, But I still think people just don't
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: respect Stafford. It's just out Evan just putting the trat
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: Rain win in Baltimore too. Okay, that's making a little
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: bit more sense. Yeah, I could see why you want
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: to take the Ravens in that spot, but still seven
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: and a half, there's still one out there. I still
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: think you should grab it on the Rams or just
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: there's such a good offense. They can run the ball,
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: and Williams is back fully healthy. We've seen that the
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: last couple of weeks here. Yeah, their offense really runs
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: through him. As great as Stafford is and everything he
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: does when the run game's working, that offense is incredible.
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: And the last one, which I don't know if we'll
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: get there, but the Cleveland Browns up to the minus
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: three and a half now at Jacksonville, and I think
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: all the pros I talked to love the same thing.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: Where you're getting this Cleveland defense at home where they've
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: been so dominant against a backup quarterback. It's a nice
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: spot to take them, especially if the weather's going to
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: be They really like them in that spot. But I'm
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: with you chat where it's like two and a half.
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: I could get there in Cleveland three and a half.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm as confident in that number,
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: even though kicking is probably gonna be relevant in this game,
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: if the winds are really that strong and we have
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: the Lake effect kind of rain and everything. So definitely
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: a week of weather. Everyone's talking weather. Everyone I talk to,
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: all they're really talking about is weather. So that to me,
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: is gonna be the big deciding factor on Sunday. If
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: you haven't made any bets, you've already missed a lot
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: of these numbers. I would wait to get more info
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: about the weather because it is going to be such
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: a huge factor.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: Here comes Sunday.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of The
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. Producer Tito would like me to
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: tell you, for those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: YouTube page. All right, time to narrow down these games.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Got to get to our foxhol got to get to
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: our survivor, got to get to our big balls bet
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: of the week? Boy, oh biggest, what's the matter? What's
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: the matter? Not feeling great?
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: I just I couldn't believe how exhausts so that it
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: was after talking just for for whatever that was five minutes.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Oh God. In the gambling world, the biggest storyline of
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: the week has been these low totals, right thanks to
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: the weather. You mentioned backup quarterbacks that we talked about
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Cleveland could be the first duo
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: of NFL games to close to thirty one or less
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: in the same week in eighteen years. If you include
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Houston and the Jets total of thirty three. Week could
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: see the first week since December of nineteen ninety three
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: to have three games closed with a total below thirty
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: three going back to nineteen eighty. It's all from Evan Abrams.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: No NFL total has ever closed before thirty going back
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: forty three years. That same weekend in ninety three that
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: I just mentioned late December three dipped below thirty, but
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: all closed at thirty or higher. Here's a great stat Stuck.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: You mentioned this on the Action Network podcast that he
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: did with Raybaum that they talked about their Sunday six pack.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Mentioned it specifically in reference to Cleveland trying to figure
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: out how to play that game. The last three seasons,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: games with ten plus mile per hour wins at kickoff
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: one hundred and ten fifty five and one to the under,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: and they're going under the total by about five and
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: a half points per game. That's against the closing number, right,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: So even if you're losing the value over the course
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: of the week, you could still bet the under and
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: it's closing and the games are finishing five and a
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: half points below the closing number in these ten plus
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: mile per hour wind kickoffs. Like, I wish we could
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: just play totals this week in the contest.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: You know, no, bag, it's the stat of keeping your
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: mind for the rest of your life.
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: Where it's like, like Jad just said, don't let the
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: line movement scarry off of it. It's a long term winner.
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: Even when the line moves, it doesn't move enough apparently.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: So yeah, pretty impressive stat.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Biggest wins this week Jets, Baltimore, Jets, Houston, Baltimore, Rams,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Jags and Cleveland. All right, Tampa Bay Atlanta. You
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: said you were looking for a reason to like the Bucks,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: and you found one. The wise guys all came in
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: on the Bucks and now that number is not something
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: that we'd want to play. To me, this becomes a pass.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to need the game. I
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: feel like we're going to find consensus on five games
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: pretty easily. Not easy to win. I just want to
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: be clear, just easy consensus for us, because this line
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: has moved significantly since you said you liked it, and
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: that's with majority of the tickets. By the way, on Atlanta.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: I'll say one thing, because Evan did pull an interesting stat.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Teams with a negative straight up point differential who are
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: over five hundred against the spread later in the season,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: they cover at a pretty high rate since twenty fifteen,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: and they're ten and fives this season this week New
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: England and Atlanta.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: Interesting. Yeah, like you said, I kind of wanted I
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: wanted to be.
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: On the books. I got where you're coming from with Atlanta.
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: I just I thought the line was fishy and I
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: don't know, like especially I want to say the value
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: is gone. It just seems like this is the pros
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: verse Joe's I mean, you.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: Just said it.
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: It's like eighty percent of the handle and a lot
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: of books right now is on Atlanta and it's down
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: to basically a pick minus one. So this is the
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: games where the books and the professionals kind of take
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: a stand on and this is how they, like you
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: just said, how Vegas is built.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: This is how Vegas has built these kind.
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: Of games where it's like it's really heavy, one sided,
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: and a lot of their verse line movement comes all
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: the way down.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: So I could see this.
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: You know, Evan will give us the play on Sunday,
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: but it feels like this will be one of the
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: bigger public sides of the week Atlanta here.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know what, it's funny as you were saying,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: and I started to think, wait a second, should we
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: be on the bucks? Is this the spot?
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: Because dog as long as they don't move to a favorite,
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: I don't mind it.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: I don't mind it either. And like dogs in the
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: division the past ten years fifty seven percent against spread,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent against the spread. I mean so you
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: know five years, yeah, five years road dogs in the
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: division fifty seven percent against spread. All right, Detroit at
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: I mean at Chicago, we talked about this game. The
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: wise guys are on it. You know, it's becoming a
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: public dog. I will say this, and again kudos to
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: to stuck you in Raybund from their podcast, because uh uh,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: this was a game that they talked about as well.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: The Bears are a better team than the Lion since
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Week seven. And I know I've been saying this on
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: the podcast. I know I've been saying this run defense
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: is Why.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: Don't you give kudos to yourself? You literally said Sunday night. Brother,
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: that's true, as they're ass You're all.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: That's right, Flowers. You know what, here's the thing, Simon,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I'm a leader, Okay, I'm an executive, and I want
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: to give the credit to my colleagues, the folks who
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: do so much work on our team. I don't I
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: don't need the credit. I got plenty of credit. We
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: got we got our faces on T shirts.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: And this is our baby.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: You were definitely the first person I heard mentioned this game.
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: Was definitely your Sunday Night.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: So here's the thing that's I do want to give
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Stuck your credit for Ali McNeil, the defensive tackle for
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: the Lions is going to be out and he's been
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: the key for that defense. If you watch every Lions game,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: he's the guy who makes so many plays in the
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: backfield and the.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: Key for the defense. Their defense is horrible, right.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: But when they were good earlier in the year they
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: were playing well.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's just it's just say he's the key.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Well, someone's got to be good, right, And so now
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: we're talking about a Bears run game with an RPO
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: in a bad weather situ. And so to me, we
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: still love the Bears, I guess say.
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: Just preferring to the three and a half half obviously
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: grab that over the three. Yeah.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Also, golf on the road, it's just a bad spot
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: outdoors thirty four to thirty four and two against the spread,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: fourteen nine to fourteen and one against spread in December
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: and January, averaging less than fourteen points per game when
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: it's below fifty degrees. But this is a good spot
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: for the Bears.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: Here, here's a great staff from Evan. The lines defense
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: twenty seventh in EPA D since week.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: Ten, just terrible and the Bears might meanwhile, gotten better
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: every week every every week. I think there's six or seventh,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: So kudos kudos to me. Simon. There you go, La
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: Rams at Baltimore. I still like it, like the thing
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: that gets.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: To do you like it at six and a half
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: because that's what it might be.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: In contest, no, I don't like it at six and
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: a half. I like it at seven and a half.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how I feel.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: That's tough, where it's like it might not make our
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: contest even though we both like it and bet it
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: since Sunday. But the only thing I'd scare me up
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: a little bit is what I haven't posted about the
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: weather because obviously, with Gus Edwards and you know Lamar,
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: that's like one of the best one to two combinations
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: at all football running the ball, so not ideal.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: But I feel like I need to stand my ground
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: this Rams team.
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: They're being priced as if Stafford's still banged up and
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: they're just not that good of a team. Where I
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: think this is as healthy as they've been all season offensively,
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: I mean, Cooper Cup's in there, Puka's in there, Williams
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: is in there.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: Their offensive line.
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure he's still fully healthy from the start
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: of the season. So we talked preseason. I think if
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: they win this game, I hit my Overchad, which is a.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: Pretty good feeling.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: I had an upset amount of money invested in them
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: with six and a half wins, and when Cooper Cup
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: went out, I was just dead inside for about a week.
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: I was like, well, that's a dead bet and a
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: little bit. I know a man named Puka would be
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: my hero and save my ass on that bet.
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: So yeah, just I need one more from the Rams here.
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: If this would be with this one, it'd be amazing
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: because we're definitely throwing this in the round robin. I mean,
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: this is the biggest, biggest dog that I like this week.
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: So yeah, nothing's changed for me, even though the weather
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: does scare me a little bit. I love this Rams team,
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: but me and Chat are hoping these pros come back
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: in on the raven so we get that seven and
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: a half in contest.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we need a little bit of a hook here.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: I agree with you on the Rams. I'm just a
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Stafford guy. Like when he has the ball late in
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: the game, I know, look, I know he can wing it,
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: and I know he might throw an interception that ends
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: the game. But I'm still comfortable having them in the hook,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: like I did bet them seven and a half earlier
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: in the week racing. You know, this is how the
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: world is changed, Simon. I'm in New York Monday Tuesday,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: fly to Vegas early Wednesday, and I'm on the tarmac
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: at Newark Airport, racing to get my bets in that
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: I'd forgotten to make before I get to Vegas because
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: it's impossible to make him in Vegas on mobile because
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: you've got to go everywhere and deposit at the retail outlets.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: I'm like, I don't want to run around town depositing
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: bets somewhere. I just want to make it on my
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: phone and it's easier, so I'm not even bothering while
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: I'm in Vegas. How pathetic is that now? How much
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: has that changed?
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: They're still in the stone age in Vegas.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: It's unbelievable. Yeah, they got to fix that. It's say
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: you can't stop progress Carolina at New Orleans. I'm liking
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: this game more and more. Yeah, even at four honestly, Simon,
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: even at four and a half, I would like it.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: And it's moved a lot against us since Sunday. But look,
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: and it really to me comes down to a there's
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: a couple of things. One, Panthers have JC hornback. He's
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: a difference maker I think in the backfield for them
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: to their defense have been playing better. This is about
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Dennis Allen, Jameis Winston and just how bad this New
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: Orleans team is, Like they shouldn't be favored by four
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: and a half over anybody at this point. They're not
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: that good of a.
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: Team, are But I don't think me you would be
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: surprised if we lost this game by twenty. I mean,
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: the Panthers are just very bad and they had their
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: what do you call their dead cat bounced last week
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: having the new coach in there, so it's like, you know,
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: we're just playing the numbers here. People, Please don't get
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: mad at about this one. But I already had a
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: couple of messages about it where it's like I thought
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: we weren't betting the Panthers anymore, and it's like you
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: kind of take these kind of spots, like jad I
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: just said it. That number is way too big for
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: a Derek Carr offense that just struggles in the red
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: zone like they do.
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: And Dennis Allen.
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: You know, I really wish I had listened to Chris
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: and Evan here early in the season where if we
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: just faded them, I think they're two and nine ats.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: Is that wrong, Evan? Is that right?
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, They're like they're horrible this season. Saints covering the spread,
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: so the issue is usually at this time of the year,
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: I usually want to buy those teams, like you already
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: just talked about the Patriots. They're a team that, like
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: you're supposed to bet this week. Like historically, teams as
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: bad as they've been ATS wise, you know, they usually
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: bounce back.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: But I just I can't get there. I can't believe
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: I'm saying the spot.
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: I am on Pitchburg for the Thursday night game and
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: Sam goes here where I get why people want us
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: to take the Saints and what they're looking at with
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: the Saints team. But I think Chad nailed. It's just
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: we're just really fading. Derek Carr and the head coach
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: and this Panthers team. I don't want to say they
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: found something last week, but it did look like brace
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: Shung looked a lot more comfortable in the offense. I mean,
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: is great. They put up eighteen points. I know it's
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: nothing crazy, but for them, that's pretty good. So yeah,
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: divisional game, Like Chad said, I wouldn't hate taking the
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: four and a half, but I would hope you.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: Could still get the five.
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: It is out there, just because this game could come
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: this cover could come down to a two point conversion.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, how many times we've seen that, So I'm
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: with you, it's like a dog. I do love this week,
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: but I do prefer Carolina outdoors. I think that is
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: a beneficial to their defense, just because indoors, it's just
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: so much teams are so much faster right on that turf,
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: and that's that's really what has helped the Saints the season.
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: I know they haven't been covering, but they have semi
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: been winning games. Were they five and seven? So yeah,
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: two terrible teams. ME and Chat usually like to take
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: the points. When's two terrible teams playing.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Simon, we got a we still got to do a Foxhol.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: We still got to do a big balls. This could
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: be on the table.
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: For one of those.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: There's a couple of the games that I want to
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: talk about that might take bigger balls, but I do
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: want to put this on the table as a potential
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: big balls better the week. I think Foxhol might come
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: down to something else. This next game to me, Seattle
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: at San Francisco. This game like two weeks ago in Seattle,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: this game closed Niners minus seven. It opened this week.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: I think San Francisco minus twelve and a half thirteen
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: immediately got bet down. We noticed it on Sunday night.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: The Niners destroyed Seattle, kind of exposed them, made everyone
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: reconsider what the Seahawks were. And then of course the
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: Seahawks go on the road. The Seahawks play the Cowboys,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: they play them well in prime time. They've got now
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: a little bit extra rest. Since then, the Niners have
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: gone off and destroyed the Eagles. They are the talk
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: of the NFL. The trend is to play Seattle. They
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: are the big road division dog. The trend is too
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: bet against the Niners. The height of the market, You're
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: not going to get any bigger. I feel like we
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: have to bet Seattle here, and I think that takes
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of balls.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: That'd be you that I'm on it. I'm on forty
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: nine ers. I know, I hate it, really yeah.
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: And I talked to the group that did come in
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: heavy on them, and I get where they're coming from,
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: the Seattle love, but I'm just not seeing it, Like,
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: I don't know, it's just tough for me where they're like,
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: would you see what they did against Dallas defense? And
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man, I don't like, I don't put
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: Dallas in the top regard as other people do. Like
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: people hype that defense up so much, and I just
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: think there are defense that beat up on bad teams
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: and they struggle against good offenses, and like nothing's changed
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: my opinion this season, Like I've seen that this season
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: from them. So I can't get there, brother, I just
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: think the forty nine ers have the Seahawks number, especially
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: this team. And you're back in Gino Smith off his
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: probably best game of the season, which is gonna be
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: a little scary chat because just before that we were
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: talking about how the league has kind of figured out, Gino.
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: So I know where you're coming from, like usually double
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: digit dogs, divisional dogs. I'm gonna want to back that
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: team and anyone out there they wants to take the
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: ten and a half with chat, I totally get it.
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: But I can't let you make this big balls and
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: I can't let you put this in contest. I just
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: I just can't get there. On the Seahawks.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Well, then I feel like we're narrowing down our options
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: and big balls might have to be Carolina.
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: I don't hate that.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers big ball better the wei Carolina is our
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: big balls the week. Listen one of the guys we
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: talked about the other day Minnesota, at Las Vegas. All
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: this money coming in on the Raiders. I was surprised
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: this didn't come up in sharp calls. Why is the
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: money not moving in their direction? Because and you thought
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: something was funky with this? Yeah, what have we learned?
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: That all of this money is coming in the Raiders
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: and the money is not and the line is not
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: moving in their direction.
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I just I'm staying away from it. It feels
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: there's guys on both sides of it.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: That's wow.
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: I felt about it where it's like I wanted to
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: be on the Raiders, but I saw why guys were
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: backing the Vikings in the spot.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: And I have no opinion like this game.
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: You know, I probably have two thousand dollars on total
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: and I bet the Raiders up plus three, but like
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: not putting any real money on this one. I just
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: I just don't really know what to deal with it.
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: So I'm I was hoping earlier the week I kind
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: of did love. I think Sunday night we talked about
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: it. I was like, Wow, that's that's a good number for
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: the Raiders, and now's the week's going along I'm just
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: not as excited about it. Like there's other games I'd
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: rather take than this one. So you have no real
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: opinion on it.
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: Good.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: I'm glad because I didn't want to take the Raiders
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: and date no comment either. This is the game that
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: I think. It's probably our Foxhill Kansas City.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: No. Simon says, oh yeah, oh.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: That's right, all right, that's right, all right. I apologize.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah we can.
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, we can break it down more. But I
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: think it's just where are you at? People meant there
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: are you are?
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: You?
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: Are you really giving up on Mahomes?
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: Like if you give up on Mahomes in this offense,
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: I totally get while you're backing the Bills, but I
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: just I just think the Chiefs offense is a consistent
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: but you kind of had to ride the wave this season.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: What are they eight and for at this point now?
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: And for Mahomes, you know, playing a full season healthy
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: that would be considered disappointment. It's like, whoa, that guy's
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: only eight and four and he's been healthy all season.
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: But we've just seen it. Little things haven't gone their way.
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: They usually do, right, They usually get those calls from
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: the referees. Usually his wide receivers make those catches over
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: past seasons. This year they're just not so totally get
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: why the Pros like a couple I talked to like
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: the Bills here. I mean offensively, Yes, the Bills are
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: great and much higher this Chiefs offense. I mean they
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: still got Stefan Diggs, Gabe Davis. My big issue with
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: the Bills is just gonna be that defense, Like Rastell
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: Douggs is coming and done well, they still can't get
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: stops overall, and now a lot of blame shifted to
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: McDermott and his stupid ass prevent defense that he likes
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: to run. I see no difference here, Like if Mahomes
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: has the ball in the game, Chat, we're getting one
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: and a half. I feel like you're like me, you're
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: feeling pretty good here. It feels like Ma's going to
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: get across that finish line. So I won't let the
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: line movement scare me off, Chad, like one and a half,
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: we'll bite the ball. We'll ride the trends with Evan
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: what was that having seven and oh after a loss Mahomes,
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: So we'll keep riding that trend. We'll back Mahomes here well, Look.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: We talked about this the other day. We were sick
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: to our stomach and knowing we had the Packers plus
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: six and plus five and a half in the contest, yeah,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: and needed it to get to two and three, and
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes had the ball and it scared at all costs.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: You want to avoid that feeling, right, So if you
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: can get Patrick Mahomes as a two point conversion favorite
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: in this game, yeah you take it. I already better
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: at two and a half.
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: It's a long term winner, right Like you bet this
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: spot long term on my homes.
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: You're going to be a winner, Simon.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: As soon as I get on a plane and get
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: back to a state where online betting is available, I bet.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: I'm betting this number and I hope it lasts. I
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: don't think our next game is our foxhol Philadelphia Dallas
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: Dallas minus three and a half. I'm feeling pretty good
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: about Dallas.
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: You you had a power raided at four.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: Let's make it a Foxhil. This was what I was
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: make Foxhall.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: What about giants though, no.
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: See the giants would be big balls. That's not a Foxhol,
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: like this is a foxvill because this is between the pros.
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: This is split right down in the middle.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: I know some pros.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Then okay, all right, then let's make this foxhol. I
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: might want to change big Balls to Giants.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: You're in on the Giants. Now you've come full circle.
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Maybe I love it. Maybe yeah, I just let's talk
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: about Dallas.
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: I thought this was foxible just because it's very split,
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: a lot of back and forth, a lot of arguments,
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: a lot of guys saying they got the inside info
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: that Hurts is not hurt, that whatever happened last week
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: was purely to the head, nothing about his lower body
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: was any type of injured. From the other side, from
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: people on Dallas, it's like, no, I'm hearing other news
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: that hurts his hurt lower body and that's going to
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: hamper him offensively.
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: I would say my favorite thing I saw, if you're
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: an Egos backer, is there was a bunch of crazy
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: Eagles fans that went to the Eagles stadium with signs,
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: huge signs that run the damn ball. And that's the truth, Like,
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: that's what's really been missing with this Eagles team. They
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: just have not been running the ball like they were
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: earlier in the season, right, and Dallas that's their Achilles heel. Like,
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: if you can run the ball on this team, it
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: really can't set up everything else. And I totally get it,
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: like where everyone's coming from. But I look from the
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: viewpoint of the Eagles. We knew they were going to
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: go through a Gauntlin and they're lucky they're not sitting
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: here right NOWT zero and three. Right They could have
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: easily lost that Bills game, could have easily lost that
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: Chiefs game, and they did get blown out to that
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: fourty nine Ers team.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: And in past years.
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: This would be like an auto play for me on
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: Dallas because the Eagles in Dallas just always split. That
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: really is how it works in their conference. But yeah,
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: it's just it's shocking that this is so split. Like
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: I'm looking right now in our app it's basically fifty
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: to fifty. So yeah, if you're an Eagles backer, you
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: gotta be feeling pretty good getting the plus three and
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: a half. But Chad knows I make this minus four
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: in the Cowboys, So I'm not scared at all taking
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: the minus three and a half. You're on the Cowboys,
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: it just feels like they're the right side. This is
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: what we always call a scheduled loss for the Eagles.
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: It does feel that way where it's just not an
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: ideal spot for them. And you mix in Cowboys extended
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: rest December at home, that's a big deal playing against
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: this Eagles team. So yeah, I just couldn't avoid it.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: It pains me to say, but I am on Dallas
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: this week.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Well, look schematically, two things. One, Lane Johnson is still
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: banged up like sat out a couple weeks ago, was
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: not great last week. The Cowboys that it makes it
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: harder to run the ball when one of your best
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: offensive linemen is not fully healthy. Number one, Number two,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: as we saw the Niners do. There is a huge
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: hole in the middle of the field defensively for the
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Eagles in coverage, and that is something the Cowboys can
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: systematically take advantage of. What have we heard about all
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: season long? The Cowboys are now running a version of
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: a West Coast offense. What does a West Coast offense do?
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Quick throws, slants across the middle where guys are getting leverage.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: That is the opportunity that the Cowboys have with really
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: good receivers right now in a middle of the defense
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: that might not be able to cover against that. So schematically,
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: you forget about the spot there are opportunities, then I
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: guess we are are in the fox Hult.
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: Foxhole guy.
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: I'm a Foxhole guy.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: New York Giants plus six and a half. The only
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: reason I would make it the Big Balls is because
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: the Packers are so high right now and everyone is
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: in love with them. We're getting we're getting noticed. For
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, he does not want us to switch Big
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: Balls after the announcement, so we are sticking with we are.
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: Producer Mad doesn't like the changing of the bigger producer men.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, dancers. It's actually my bad. I forgot, like I
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: forgot the Giants. We're playing Monday night, and I would
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: have gone to them for Big Balls. But I got
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: so excited about the Panthers because that was an opportunity,
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: and I was thinking Chiefs for Foxhole and I just
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: lost track, and so I apologize. How are you feeling
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: about the Giants at six and a half.
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing's changed, but I'm with you where it's scary
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: as hell, just because Green Bay is playing their best
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: football of the year and the book.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: They can't catch up to it, so eventually they will
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: catch up to Right.
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: It's the same thing with the Lions, matter how hot
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: the Lions were and now it's really flipped these last
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: couple of weeks.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exact with Green Bay.
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: I mean that's just how football is, where it's like
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: you'll be hot for a while. I mean, everything will
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: be clicking and then some team defensive will scheme it right,
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: and every team will copy that team's scheme and that's
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: what adventures gonna have the Green Bay. And this is
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: like kind of one of those games where I wouldn't
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: be shocked if somehow the Giants defense did win this
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: game because it won't be their offense.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: It's like, if the Giants do win or cover this game,
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: it's either Jordan Love finally has a bad game and
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: someone schemes it against him, or you know, it's just
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: a total meltdown by the Green Bay offense. Like I
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: don't think me and you either are making this bet
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: thinking yeah, we're gonna win this because Tommy DeVito is
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: gonna get us there. It's like, no, we just we
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: need the Giants defense to step up here. Just because
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: I mean Green Bay's offense, not that I want to
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: call them a jugger not, but like they put up
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: twenty seven against a really good Chiefs defense last week.
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: Like this is a team that's really clicking offensively right now.
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: So you know, I had my questions. I thought it
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: was a little fluky what they did a couple of games,
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: and I was like, yeah, everyone can put points up
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: against the Lions. But if you go back and watch
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: that tape against the Chiefs, like it's all clicking there,
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: Like Lafool and Love are just very in tune right now.
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: So this I don't hate it. Chad, this might be
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: one of my Survivor picks, unfortunately. I mean it's that
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: time of year where it's like there's only so many
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: teams left. My basically my two choices right now are
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: Green Bay or Pittsburgh, and I'm kind of leaning towards
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: green Bay. But everything Chad says, right, like, I like
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: the Giants, we play this number, it's just.
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: You want to make it one of our five? Are
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: you that confident in it? It's tough.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: I actually feel I feel pretty good about it, Like
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: if and we'll talk about sort.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: Of there the boys on it or something.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: No, I just feel like this is life. I like
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: this game.
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: I like I like.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: I like a home team in prime time as a
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: relatively big dog against a team that has been escalating, escalating, escalating.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: The number has moved, the rating has moved up on
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: the Packers the past few weeks. Like this is just
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: the classic spot where you want to fade a really
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: hot team.
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: And again that's what sucks though, is like Chad saying,
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: is even if we don't catch it this week, I
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: basically have to keep feeding Green Bay for the next
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: like three weeks, which.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: Is it sounds awful.
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: That's kind of how it is, where it's like eventually
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: they're going to fall off a cliff just because no
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: team stays this hot. And yeah, I'm with you, I
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: just I don't. I don't have nearly as much confidence
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: in this bed as you do. Obviously, Well, we'll talk.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: About the five that we think we might land on. Right.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: A reminder about our contest picks. By now, you know,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: we track our official contest picks in the Action Network
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: app under the Fhaves five account. But again, if you
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: want to see the unofficial picks, we enter on Thursday,
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: just go to the contest website favorites dot actionnetwork dot
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: com and search for the faves five. That's us. Before
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: we get to our money line Underdog round Robin. Reminder
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: that the Week thirteen contest tiebreaker is totally rushing yards
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: on Monday Night Football, our predictive analyst Billy Ward writes
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: a weekly article about typebreaker strategy, and a link to
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: that article can be found in the episode's description. If
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: you want to leg up in the contest, good luck, Okay, wait, money?
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: What's the matter? Dude?
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: Didn't even talk about a game. I thought you were
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: going to bring up your your love for Denver? What's
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: going on there?
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: I just felt like the line had moved too much.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to get the number I
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: wanted in the contest.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: What number do you want? Well?
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: I wanted to get three and a half because I
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: wanted to see where it was going to land. And
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: I think that the number has moved too much for
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: in Denver's direction right now? Did you feel differently?
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I told you, I know the hell to do
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: with it.
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: I kind of wanted to take the chargers because I
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: didn't understand the number. I didn't get why this game
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: wasn't a pick. But yeah, as long as you don't
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: have opinion, I'm good on this one.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: Because I don't know.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: I sort of looked at the board and scratched it
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: off because I felt like I missed the best of it.
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's fair, all right.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: The money Line Underdog Round Robin, here's some suggestions. Panthers.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: All right, I'll party Rams who Rams, Rams Bears.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: Carolina Chicago Rams Bocks.
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: It's too short, it's only one and a half year.
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: It's minus one oh two that passed. What about the
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: Jets plus one seventy?
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: All right, Jets can't go wrong putting them in every
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: week eventually.
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: Oh, I mean, I mean pains me to say because
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: I'm taking a survivor, but we just talked about the
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: Giants or plus two forty.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to say it, but I didn't
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: want to jinx to your survivor opportunity.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: It's been a great run.
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: So if it ends on, if it ends with Tommy DeVito,
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: that's how it's meant to be.
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: All right, Moneyline Underdog Round Robin. We're going with Carolina Chicago, Rams,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: Jets and Giants. Oh, Simon, I got a lot of
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: compliments at the live event about this specific moment. Are
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: you ready to make Little Caesars, which is the official
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: pizza sponsor of the NFL, part of your game day? Simon,
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: the holiday season has finally arrived. Do you think Santa
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: will be putting slices of Little Caesars pizza into you
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: were stocking this Christmas?
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: I hope.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: So order online during our pizza Pizza pre game one
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: hour before NFL games and get ready for some football
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: and fun. Choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza or pick
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: the toppings you crave. Simon, what do you think about
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: this new holiday motto I invented. If the evening snow
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: shines like magic dust, it's a signed to order crazy crust.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: However you order your pizza, you win. And speaking of winning,
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: everyone scores with convenient delivery or our in store pizza
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: portal pickup. So grab some friends and enjoy a few
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: slices during the game.
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: The Survivor pool pick of the week.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: All right, Survivor, we talked about Steelers and Packers. Where
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: do you think you'll.
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: Land on Thursday Nights short week? I guess Steelers, even
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: though everything in my body's telling me to take the
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: Patriots after a loss. It's hard from me, not the
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: back Tomlin at home in this spot, Brian with Evans
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: stat though, just take the fucking under So don't pick
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: a side here, but I'm taking Green Bay and my
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: survivor pool.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: What are your biggest bets right now?
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: Oh god, I mean people are gonna hate them regardless.
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: Jets actually know what. I actually have some easy ones.
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: I got the Chiefs in there, like I've just been
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: hitting that number since it's moved. But yeah, Jets, Bears, Bucks, Cowboys,
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: and the Chiefs. Those are ones that I really like.
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: Bet a lot on and Panthers. I was hoping I
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: was gonna get back to six, but that's just gone down.
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: I think in most books is four and a half.
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: There's a couple five and a half's out there, so I
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: haven't bet too much of that Panthers yet. I was
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: really hoping it would go up, but it hasn't. And
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: like Evan put our chat, a couple of books went
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: to seven and a half again on the Rams, I'll
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: probably put a little more on that RAMS number.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: bet three six five Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.
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  Speaker 1: called one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets
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  Speaker 1: off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. All right. Before
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: we get out of here, we're joined by Action Network
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Director and research Evan Abrams. We talk about them all
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: the time. People put his stats on their Dak Prescott
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: jerseys and permanent ink. Evan, you're getting the last word.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: The last word with Evan Abrams.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: We're finished talking.
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I was gonna Saydak's playing the NFC East this week,
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: so we could just run that one back, but let's
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: go a little bit sideway, so Trevor Lawrence banged up CJ.
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: Bethrick's supposed to get the start. Worth noting Jaguars, they've
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: won ten straight games against the spread road neutral. That
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: is the longest winning streak over the last twenty years,
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: so right now, obviously all Lawrence the past, but really
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: running hot away from home. And it's also worth noting
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: look this up during the show. Flaco hasn't been a
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: favorite since twenty nineteen, hasn't laid three or more since
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: Week one of twenty nineteen, so that has been a
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: minute uh story.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: Of the weekend.
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: Backup quarterbacks as of now, I think we're bracing for
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: about eight or nine backups, depending on what happens with
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: Derek Carr. So if Derek Carr doesn't go and Jamis starts,
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: nine backup quarterbacks this week would be the most in
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: a non week seventeen Week eighteen since Week fourteen of
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: twenty thirteen, so it has been exactly ten years without
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: Derek Carr this week, if he doesn't go, we've seen
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: this many backups and since it started last season, backup
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: quarterbacks sixty three and ninety one straight up. Yikes, but
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: eighty three, sixty seven and four against the spread, so
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: usually covering those numbers. And then finally I will say this, guys,
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: I'm on the Giants. I agree with you, Chad. I
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: like the number, but this is just insane and I
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: gotta say it. This will be a thirty fifth night
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: game for the Jet and Giants. Since twenty eighteen, they
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: are four and thirty straight up, including three and thirty
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: in the last thirty three. Since twenty eighteen, they are
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: one in fifteen straight up at home in night games.
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: Only win. Yeah.
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: Week one this year when the Jets beat the Bills,
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: so tough sled. But I like the six and a half,
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: so let's roll.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: None of that stat worries me. That just is fluky
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: nature of bad football in New York. Playing the number
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: in front of us. I like it for all of us.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: To recap our Foxholt was Dallas minus three and a half,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: Simon says, Kansas City minus two and a half. Executive decision,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: Chicago plus three, big balls. I didn't change it. Carolina
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: plus five. Our round robin is Carolina, Chicago Rams, Jets
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: and Giants everything against Evan against everything. Evan just said Simon.
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: If we had a lock in five picks right.
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: Now, the faves five for now.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking Carolina, hoping we can get four and a half,
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: hoping we can get three and a half, Rams hoping
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: we can get seven and a half, Kansas City. I'll
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: take whatever under three we can get and New York
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Football Giants plus six and a half.
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna try to force the Cowboys. And I
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: just like that number a lot. It's just a nice
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: spot to take the Cowboys.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Who do you want to take out? Carolina Bears?
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: Rams? Would? I would take them over that Giants for sure.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: Okay, I don't mind it. Look if it's gonna be
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: one of your biggest bets of the week, which I think.
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I'm getting there on the Dallas thing. That's
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: why it's like it feels like I have to get
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: it in there. I'm getting pretty heavily invested.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: All right, Giants are out, Cowboys are in.
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: Perfect There we go.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods.
• 45:41
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• 45:44
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• 45:48
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• 45:56
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