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Indycar Indy500 2026 | Push to Cash Betting Preview · Apex Insiders Podcast

• @f1capper: All right, we're back. Apex insiders. got the push to cash betting preview. We got Mike, we got Nate, F1 capper here and we are ready to dive in. It's finally here. Indy 500. The weekend is upon us. Actually, it's a big racing weekend. You have finally F1's back and then Coke 600 and of course, the biggest race of the calendar with the exception of Le Mans. But. We are here guys. ⁓ I do want to kind of come back to qualifying. Nate, we didn't really get the opportunity to talk to you pre-qual, so ⁓ it ⁓ was an interesting one. We were kind of wondering, what are we expecting after all the rain, the washout, how are these cars gonna perform and everything like that? And of course, the GOAT just sticks it in. He sticks it in at... at pole. So, ⁓ shocker? Maybe, but to some, maybe not. So, let's get some thoughts on qualifying. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I mean, as far as Palo, I just think it was impressive because he was like 11th or 12th going into that top 12 session and then for him to jump into the Fast 6 and then jump even more into the pole when he, you know, there was a few people that just looked stronger all day. So that was pretty impressive by him. I mean. Tipped my cap to him. Pretty cool for him to do it. I thought it was kind of like a unique day as far as everyone just had one shot. So the pressure was on them and that was kind of cool. But then also everyone also knew they were in the show because there was no bumping. And so I think there was a little nervousness on the side of getting it right on your one shot. But there was also this comfort some people had of like, you know, I... we don't really need to like wreck our cars so i think some people went like almost a little safer and just kind of got the show so it's it like presented a new dynamic but also i don't think everyone went to their fullest extent to to see where they could push their speed @f1capper: Yeah, it was interesting to see that. I don't I think he got the what 232 was was the top speed, which I think the day before they were getting like 233 is like more people were basically averaging closer to Palo's average. And then the next day it kind of was like it felt like it was a drop off at some point. And that could easily be track conditions, right? It was was a lot warmer. ⁓ and then you could see as it was going through the session, it was like, people were kind of capped. think what I was trying to look at on the data. So take it with a grain of salt. Most of the individuals that were running, they basically got their top time, like on their first lap. And then after that, it was like a massive drop off. ⁓ we even saw some big drop offs. Like we saw some guys run up. think it was VK. We were like, Holy cow. Like he got a. you know, 232 and then all of a sudden it was like 229, right? Like there was some massive, massive drop off. So some interesting things to kind of uncover there. But again, don't don't know exactly what I'm going to chalk that up to track. Track conditions were totally different than what they were that were the day before. So, yeah, truly, I think at session over session, it was hard to dig. @iN8Rodgers: and all week really they didn't see that @f1capper: gauge what the track conditions were gonna be like. Then when it rains, it washes off. Then we got rubber in again. Like it was cooler, it was warmer. was very dynamic for sure. yeah. Mike, what did you think? Indy_Bet: was fine man, mean I'm glad we had to deal with the confusing like 10 to 15 whatever like ⁓ but ⁓ yeah look from a betting standpoint like I made I did really well on grid rival I wish I would have gotten this out there to the crew quicker ⁓ but I jumped on Hauger and Stingray paired up together unders @f1capper: Yeah. That was a good one. Indy_Bet: And that was like the easiest money I've ever made. And then, you know, ⁓ there was, I watched the Andretti cars, I had a bunch of, and prize picks, I did a bunch of Fade and Andretti. Prize picks will let you do just one team. So I had ⁓ all three Andrettis under, that was an easy cash. I didn't cash out a grid rival, because grid rival will make you throw another team in there. And I believe I went with Malukis under, and that just missed. So. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. Indy_Bet: Yeah, I it was cool. I saw people make a lot of money on any books that offered, I think it was Bet 365 Offshore that offered top six to make the top six. I mean, we knew pretty much like Rosenquist. We pretty much knew Palo. We knew Maluch. Like that was easy. That was, and they were plus odds. So I saw some people do really well on that. So yeah, if we see those, that's something for next year. And yeah, I'm with Nate. I don't think they were pushing. They all knew they were in the field. It was a little less focused. So yeah, on to the Super Bowl. @f1capper: Yeah, I think it's funny. I don't think we'll see that again. Or if we do see those those odds again, they will be slightly adjusted, not slightly, probably massively adjusted. And yeah, grid rival. Man, I wish I could say it was a little bit better on price picks. ⁓ I did get kind of screwed, though, on the ⁓ Colette under twenty and a half. I they ended up grading it a win. And then literally two minutes later, the news dropped. I was like, ⁓ man, they're gonna adjust this, aren't they? They adjusted it to a loss, but then later they voided it for me. And I was like, I'll take it, right? Like at least I didn't lose the money. So it went through three rounds from a win to a loss to a void. But yeah, that was one of the biggest, biggest plays I had was the patto, was it over four and a half and then VK over eight and a half, which I was kind of sweating the VK one for a little bit, but then Indy_Bet: Yeah. @f1capper: You saw that big drop off towards his stint and I was like, oh yeah, this is going to be good. It was disappointing to see Scott. had, I was hesitant about that one where his number was at five and a half on price picks. And I was like, you know, he has, he has a fast car. I it's just, here we go again, right? Like you're backing McLaughlin when the hype is up and then it kind of fades. So that was kind of unfortunate because that was the same thing I had. Like I was on the Andretti, everything was telling, it was showing me Andretti fayed them for qualifying. ⁓ I had that with paired with Kirkwood and Power. I should have done a little bit more. And actually I didn't realize with prize picks, they allowed three cards where they, can pick the same teammates. Never done that before with prize pick. So ⁓ now I know. Yeah, now I know. Indy_Bet: Yeah, I cashed it. I think I posted, cashed it. That was a nice one. I think I threw it up. And look, it just goes to show, if we pay attention, if you listen, you get into Apex Insiders, you follow us on Twitter, if you're listening, you can make money. We can make money in these things, especially for these one-off little events like this. So yeah, man. And hopefully, we can do the same for the 500. @f1capper: For sure. On to the Super Bowl. I love that. That's ⁓ a great statement. don't need to go through the preview. I think everyone is just frothing for what's going to happen next. I do believe there might be some rain on Friday, Nate. I'm not sure. they expecting rain on Friday? @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, we actually have rain forecasted for like over the next week. ⁓ the race is even kind of not really in jeopardy, but just the kind of how that's going to get in. And so, yeah, I think we'll, we'll touch on if they're even able to get that Friday practice in, which will be, ⁓ pretty bad for someone like paddle and Rossi and then bad for, you know, everyone that doesn't feel fully confident in their race cars yet. you know, if practice doesn't end up happening on Friday, in my opinion, that's where you really go heavy. on those like people that you've trusted you know most years and then people that you can trust like you know just that have been strong to begin with like Palo and the Penske cars and people like that because ⁓ you know without this extra practice and when getting and practice getting cancelled on Monday ⁓ you know that's really going to hurt some people that were looking to tune it in a little more. @f1capper: Yeah, no, that's a good point, especially for Rossi and Pato, which I was already leaning on, how, what's my angle to fade them and I'm definitely going to be paying attention to see like if they can't get their runs. I am more inclined, definitely for Rossi. ⁓ Pato, know he can, he's got, he's got the skill that he can jump in, but still it's just, I don't, I don't fully trust it. We'll see how I fade them. Most likely on like grid rival or prize picks. We'll, probably do that, which I'm going to definitely, I wanted to. save my energy for price picks and grid rival because I actually only have like two plays for race and this was like before prequel so I'm excited to kind of chat it out with you guys later in this segment though. Yeah, no, so let's go ahead and talk about our new bets that we've made. So we, know there's a lot of action that's been happening. So let's just, let's do a quick round table and talk about some of the new plays that you have, whether it's today or anytime after qualifying. Indy_Bet: Go Nate. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I mean if I if I try to give you all my plays, you know, we'd be here to be a five hour episode or a whole season or something but I've been I've been throwing stuff in since November. Yeah, but ⁓ so I feel like I'm pretty good shape from all my prequel stuff and so now I'm just building on that and I think one of my favorite bets that I came across today was a Dixon top 10. I think I got a minus 112 Hard Rock has it like minus 110. I think Bovada and Canby I think are the other two places where @f1capper: everywhere. @iN8Rodgers: You can possibly see that pretty similar and I mean I just think Dixon at a near ⁓ You know near even odds of someone who's so steady He's starting in the top 10. I believe maybe he's starting 10th or 11th And that, you know, even if he has a pit issue or penalty in the first half of the race, the top 10 still gives you that flexibility for someone as talented with the good as cars Dixon will have to make that back up and finish seventh or eighth. You know, we're not a top 10. It's just a nice cushion that we don't normally get to try to bet on most of the year. And so I really enjoy taking some of those. And that's where I've just really been. I like Dixon overall to win a little bit, you podium and matchups I'm targeting, but a top 10 is a really nice place to start with them, I think. @f1capper: Yeah, no, there's some men. Yeah, and it's going to suck for Mike and I because we have the under one and a half. But maybe this will be his only win potentially. I have been definitely eyeing that like I do have that group bet option. I still haven't pulled the trigger. I hate group bets, but everything, even the latest model that I posted is screaming for a top five at least. He's supposed to be in the top five. So now I'm really gonna be probably pushing some chips in on Dixon. And I think on the top 10, and we talked briefly about this. ⁓ So there's one angle you can take if you're listening to this. One, yes, if you have the option on a sports book at Even Money. Is that what you said it was at? It was around Even Money or? Sure, it's a favorable option for you. But yes, if you can get Even Money, that's great. Go to Cal-She. @iN8Rodgers: just below, minus 110, minus 112. @f1capper: and start putting in your bid, you never know. Someone's gonna nibble on it. I did that with Maluchus before I was mentioning that to you guys. I put in a bid for Maluchus and it's starting to fill. And that's what I'm gonna plan to do right now actually is try to see if I can get it at, I might not get too greedy, but like maybe like minus 105 and see if I can get some dicks in top 10 because that is screaming. Like you've gotta take that. You've got to take it. think that the minus, even at the minus 120, that's super value. I think that should be like a minus 165 minimum bet ⁓ overall. And then I'm almost, I think I'm almost there with your, your group bet that you took, which is, let me pull it up really quickly. Just so I remember, I think it's Kirkwood and let's see Kirkwood Simpson and VK like Come on, this is a- @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I think your main concern would be Kirkwood, but he's starting pretty far back. Rossi mentioned on his podcast today that he thought Kirkwood still looks a little worse off than he started. Something weird happened with Andretti once they added that boost on. ⁓ yeah, I feel pretty comfortable just rolling with Dixon in that group. @f1capper: So yeah, my model has him at P11, which that still feels favorable. But I guess when you got like half the field is kind of full of donkeys too. That's definitely achievable for him. yeah, I think the data's screened, Andretti's just not there this weekend. ⁓ So Kirkwood is going to win is what my model is telling me. So. ⁓ I might do it, man. I might actually just dive in. Why not? Let's go. Let's go within the sticks in it. I'm gonna, I'm actually gonna consider some top three too. We'll see. I wanna see some of my local books and what they're posting and then any head to head options. I know DK has a nice head to head option, but before we get to that, Mike, what do you like? What is your favorite now? Indy_Bet: Yeah, well I got a couple of favorites or a couple of things I'll drop here as we go. let me, I guess let me start with like the Indy 500 for me, I take a different approach than the rest of the IndyCar betting season. You know, I focus most of my units on top threes. A lot of that's due to Palo and his dominance and where the tracks we've been at. But I'm gonna, but for the 500 I will focus more, I'll have a probably at least a quarter more of my units if not more on outrights, right? So I'm gonna be betting outrights. I'm gonna be looking for the winner. I don't know if we all can agree on this, but I will be I fade Palo and ovals. I will not be betting. I don't think if Palo wins this thing, ⁓ I'm not I'll probably lose money or just hope to break even with the props and I will play some of these top tens, which I'll get to in a second. So I'll let you know who those outrights are. I've already placed and where I think my head is going to be at. I'm still trying to figure out Pato. He's probably now he would have been on the card. He's probably off now with the new car. ⁓ But I'll start with my favorite long shot and I'll also say I'm gonna bet him top 10 ⁓ And he's 25 to 1 and he's probably the longest I will go on the board and that is mr. Takuma Sato So I like Sato top 10 Probably more than I like the outright the outright obviously 25 to 1 that's not gonna need any You you can make a lot of money with a little money with that. I think he's been fast all month I think he's had people have mentioned his car are being able to work well in traffic. He's had been at the top of the chart in no tow speeds and in tow speeds. I think he just had a little slip up in qualifying, but he's still close enough towards the front of the field. I feel good about that. So, so give me Sato 25 to one and his top 10 is I see plus 120. I think Caesar's might be a little lower than that. All these numbers like goes without saying by PSA shop around. seeing vastly different numbers. ⁓ I just bet a top 10 on New Garden ⁓ at minus 180 that I just paired with the Thunder Wind tonight and got me up to plus 180. Sorry, actually got me up to two to one over two to one. ⁓ I'm going to mess around with those kinds of things throughout the week with some hockey and NBA. But still the minus 180 is half of what Caesars is offering. So that's a big, that's a really big deal. So shop around, but also at Sato. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, no, that's ⁓ what did you say? What was his top 10? Indy_Bet: minus 180 for both Maluchus and Joseph in Hard Rock which ⁓ Sato is ⁓ Sato's plus 120 on Hard Rock and minus 120 on Caesar's I'm still fine with the minus 120 on Caesar's @f1capper: No, but as for Sato, Indy_Bet: shop around if you've got the availability for books. always click on Indiana and Caesars just because I figure that's where most a lot of betting is happening for this podcast. So I'd be okay with the minus 120 for Takuma or if you want to pair that with one of the money lines on the hockey or NBA you might like go for it. It'll get you up to two to one. @f1capper: Yeah, well, ⁓ I'm the one guy that's actually got a bet on Palo Top 3 now. I did places ⁓ outright, but that was just because my local... So I like to scan my local book around this time for IndyCar because they actually post a lot of stuff. And as soon as they dropped, I was like, what? They put it at plus 450? Like I had to take that. Like I just... That was just... You have to. Indy_Bet: Yeah, look, I mean, if you see four to one, I'm cool with that. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, that's that's what I took that and then checked my other local book and they posted some top threes and I was like, ⁓ man, like I don't have access to top threes ⁓ at this price for my books. So I said, you know what, I'm going to take it. Although you can get it better. I got it at minus 110, but you can get it better at I believe it was Hard Rock and a Bet Rivers at plus 105. I believe so. Save yourself some big there. Definitely. I. I endorse it and everything that I've seen so far is that the man is is I Mean he he seems like he's on a mission with that car and in in being in the top three for sure He's gonna It would it's gonna take some some chaos for him to not be in the top five. Let me put it that way I think he's he's primed to at least be in the stick it in that top three will he win? Who knows like, you know how that goes it can always come down to like literally the last corner and anyone that's just on a flyer can overtake from that point. yeah, guess I called out one of my plays, the newest plays that I played, and let me make sure. Did I place anything else? No, those were basically, I did do a couple of the matchups, which I'd like to dig into. And I think. DK was the only one that has matchups, or maybe about 365 too. I don't know who else has matchups, but... @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, you got I mean bovada has all of them now pretty much and then like bet rivers can be has them the score and ESPN has them and Bet 365 yeah, there's but I think bovada almost took all of the ones that a couple sides have posted and same thing with the group so ⁓ Bo vada is a good place to start when you feel like if you're matchups in groups, I think @f1capper: I need you. Okay. ⁓ sweet. Okay, so we get a lot. Yeah. wish I had access still, but I don't. So I swallowed it. I just did not see anything from Ray Hall. I hate this play, but I was like, man, this is just more of the biggest fate on Ray Hall. ⁓ Ryan Hunter Ray over over Ray Hall. I felt like it was priced right. Maybe even like favorable to ⁓ Ryan Hunter Ray. So that was one of my ⁓ match up plays to go with. Rasmussen over Helio. ⁓ I'm just asking for it with Rasmussen, like you know how he goes, but it is Helio. think that, you I just don't see it. I don't see that Ed Carpenter car looks pretty damn fast too. ⁓ those were the two that I have that I placed afterwards that I, I'm really confident. Well, I shouldn't say really confident, that I'm confident in. So. ⁓ @iN8Rodgers: Yes, sir. @f1capper: And I think you had those too, @iN8Rodgers: ⁓ among the harry one it's kind of same thing i expect a little more from him but rain also just not shown a whole lot and then I took Armstrong over Carpenter, so I'm just always high on what I'm trying to I know the ECR cars are pretty strong, but I just feel like Ed's aging out from really doing much in the race. One thing with ECR is they are prone to not afraid to go off strategy, and that could either help or hurt you, depending on how it goes for them. Last year, think all three of them led the race because they all three went off strategy, and it nearly worked for Rossi until he caught on fire but ⁓ yeah I actually took the top 10 on New Garden and Maluchis as well with Mike so backing those with you guys ⁓ today I added a top five on New Garden and Maluchis ⁓ at both at plus 150 ⁓ and I think those the stats would show that actually like only 4 % of drivers have have finished top five from where New Garden starting but I think you could argue that not of cars have the strength that New Garden has or the kind of skill at that track that they'd be starting that far back. You can get better numbers for a top three but I just kind of think I like that little extra cushion ⁓ and especially for New Garden when you think he's gonna set his car up probably to make it through traffic and fight through those battles and then once he gets close to the lead I think it's gonna be tough for him because it's hard to have both a car you can lead and a car that you can playing traffic so that's why I kind of like a top five in case he gets stuck a little bit after making his way through top five is exactly where he made it last year before his car kind of pooped out on him starting from the back and ⁓ and then as far as Maluchas he's already starting up there I've been extremely impressed with him I wouldn't be surprised to see him winning but if he just kind of has a nice day running up there then top fives in the cards @f1capper: Yeah, mean, think it's pretty... ⁓ Maluchas is, yeah, definitely no brainer over there. I mean, he's looked really strong. And New Garden, yeah, that's one thing that I've captured is like through all the practice data is, yes, he's far back there. It shouldn't take him that long to move up the field anyways to begin with. And also at the beginning of the race, like he can take his time, right? Like there's gonna be time for him that he can just... He doesn't have to push super hard in the beginning and then plus he might have a caution, right? That will help him, that could favor, also could hurt him, but he should get up there really, really quick. I think where I, ⁓ go ahead. @iN8Rodgers: I mean, think just that he moved, think, over 25 spots in 100 laps last year. So I mean, it's it's it's far he's far back there. But I mean, he's closer this year. And ⁓ kind like I said, if it rains on Friday and people don't get a chance to tune their cars up, he's the person that will take advantage. @f1capper: Yeah, it's no brainer. Well, everything is screaming that you gotta take him because right now model has him around P5. So probably could even do better. Indy_Bet: Well, we don't have to talk much more. We're all either gonna go down in flames together, because the next two bets that I was gonna discuss was nine to one, both Joseph and Maloukis to win the race. Also, I'm fine laddering up, laddering down, the top 10, the top five, the top three, the win. You can spread your bed across all of them if you'd like. think that's a cool, like it's always fun to ladder stuff in football. ⁓ You know, and what that means is like. ⁓ If you want about a hundred bucks on Maluchis to win You can kind of spread it out, know 20 to win 20 to top 3 20 to you know Top 5 and top 10 whatever's left. Whatever the math works out there. Whatever money you got But yeah, those are two that I'm behind like I already said in the show with Tony. I've got a ticket on McLaughlin I might add a little bit to that because the numbers gone from 10 to 12. I've seen in some places I even saw 14 on Scott McLaughlin. I Hate that I'm gonna have all these penske cars and have all my eggs in a Hensky basket but I mean I know Roger wants to win at the place you know he bought and he owns this is what he cares about so they put the most attention ⁓ into their program for this track and it also translates as we know to the short ovals and the other ovals so man ⁓ yeah those are the guys I'm gonna be rolling with and then I'll probably scatter around some top fives and top tens for you know the dailies and the saddos I mentioned saddos already I like ⁓ I gotta figure out how to maybe hedge on Palo somehow. Maybe that top three is a good way to do that or or if I can find the four to one. But yeah, there you go. Let's just all crash and burn together. @f1capper: I mean, yeah, I mean, I think when we look at this, it's gonna, in my mind, it feels like it's gonna play out like how qualifying played out. Like we knew the cream was gonna rise to the top, right? The Ganassis, the, I mean, for the most part, the Penskys. And everything is screaming right now, this is going to be a Ganassi versus Pensky type of race. I don't see McLaren entering the mix. especially with Pato and his recent ⁓ car issues. And maybe he does. We can't rule him out, of course, but very, very unlikely that he can stick it together. then, I mean, yeah, you have the Ed Carpenter car and then what else? Andretti's not gonna, I don't see them challenging. And then you have some of the outliers like the A.J. Foyt with Ferrucci. Like, does he have a chance? You probably could, but when you got the field of McLaughlin and New Garden, Palo, Dixon, that's gonna be too much for you to try to take on. Those are seasoned, seasoned guys that are gonna be driving here. we, yeah, sorry, are in the basket. I think that it would be a shock for most of us to see someone come out and just get the outright that isn't one of those two cars. and isn't even like one of the top three teams. That's my opinion, I think. ⁓ yeah, let's talk about some of the props because the props have come back. I know we've done a lot of props across the board. So first question would be, has your mind changed on any of the props that you had since now that like things are kind of getting closer to the race weekend? Indy_Bet: Well, I'm pissed because they took away my grid position prop, which used to be an over under number on the grid position, like six and a half, seven and a half over under. And I would always want to bet the under just from history and the number was never right. Now they've got, I just tweeted it out, grid position race runner, and they go one to three plus 165, 13 plus two to one, four to six, three to one, or seven to 12 plus 260. So that sucks. I haven't run the numbers to see if that's good value or not. I feel like you might just want to bet the guys in those spots versus actually betting those. I mean, if I had to pick one, not doing that math really quick, I kind of like seven to 12, because that gives me ⁓ six drivers. gives me daily McLaughlin, Dixon, Sato, VK, and then maybe pair that with the one to three. So just. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. Indy_Bet: just basically cross off Felix Santino and Pato and you could just bet one to three at plus money and bet seven to 12 at plus money. ⁓ And see what happens. I don't know. It's that's a tough one. So I'm pissed about that I don't know you got any props Nate that you like @iN8Rodgers: Well, I was just going to add that because I know they used to give us like the first three rows like an under nine and a half on that and that was always a great one to take but on KMB they do have split between over under 4.5, 7.5 and 10.5 but by the time you get to 10.5 it's minus 250 so it's very juiced. Under 7.5 is minus 124 and then under 4.5 is plus Indy_Bet: Favorite vet. @iN8Rodgers: 155 so ⁓ I was kind of glad to see the prop but I don't really love any of those numbers and I haven't played it ⁓ I guess the one prop I have been on which I still feel pretty good about is the fastest lap under 226.5 I took on bet us. I'm not sure if it's come back. I know Caesar's has it too. I think they've adjusted to that Which Caesar's initially listed like minus 450 for the under like pre qualifying And I got it at minus 130. I want to say it's hit like just four times in last 30 years. @f1capper: Yeah, I'm trying to find it on Caesar's. You said it's back up on Caesar's? @iN8Rodgers: and I know they did have it, they just moved their stuff so much that... @f1capper: I think they removed it. Yeah, I think they removed it, but it is back up on bet us. I want to say it moved. I'm looking, I'm pulling it up now because I'm on that same one with you. @iN8Rodgers: but it's hit a nine out the last 10. and 24 out the last 30 races. They're not necessarily going any faster this year. I believe the last three years they have been in the 226s for the fastest lap. this isn't as much of a lock as I felt about like the under fastest lap that we took in like St. Pete in Long Beach, I think it was. But ⁓ I mean, I still think you can feel pretty good about it. It's hard for people to get a big toe in the race running where you have all the cars in the track and just, I mean, the stats show that even when they go faster they have lighter faster cars it's they still don't hit this prop often. @f1capper: Yeah, and I think that kind of still correlates to the under 170. Like all of it, I feel like correlates with the cautions, because the more cautions you have, the under is gonna hit basically. And right now, it hasn't moved much. It's under minus 140 for that. then the other one, I don't know if you did that one too with me, but the 171.8. 3-2 average speed which has been kind of around like the 169 ⁓ That slightly bumped up, but not by much. I still like it, but I'm kind of with you I'm kind of nervous about this. I don't know, but I think if you like those those bets I'm still I'm still gonna attack the unders because I feel like it's still favorable so @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, it's either like take the under or leave it on as far as all those just the history of kind of where that where they fall in a lot of them are like 60 to like 80 plus percent hit rate on the under over the last like You know five ten twenty plus years, so it's either under or leave it @f1capper: One thing I'm gonna watch for though is if there is any potential for rain creeping towards the end of the race, I think the cautions might be something that you wanna pay attention to because they will throw caution if there's any rain, any sprinkles. So if there's any rain at all, just gonna be considered whether it's just little drops or no rain unless it's till the end. might have to start thinking about doing over six and a half cautions. I don't know, but it's something to just pay attention to because of course, that's just a free caution for you that will be thrown out. And that's not factored into these models when it comes to these books. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I remember two years ago, I think Mike was pushing the over on the cautions for that exact reason as for the rain and then the egg actually just got postponed completely until there was no rain and then it still went way over because the race was just such such a such madness. So like it was such a good read. No, I mean, it was a great read, but like, yeah. Yeah. @f1capper: Hey, yeah. Indy_Bet: Yeah, I got a little lucky there. @f1capper: Yeah, but I mean, that's the way you gotta play it, right? Like these models are not factoring for like that at all. And those are just free cautions. Like that's immediately, you should just be taking the over. Even if there weren't many cautions that happened and you lose the bet and the caution still comes out and there's like five, but you still gotta take that, especially with that type of variable that's being thrown out to you. Let me ask you guys this. This one I didn't see last time and I think this is kind of fun. I wanna do the under on this. The total race time, under two hours and 55 minutes. Indy_Bet: Yeah. @f1capper: Over under, but I'm leaning under on that for some reason. Indy_Bet: That's a direct play on the weather, man. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah. @f1capper: Yeah, and that's why I won't touch it yet until I get a little bit clearer on the weather. Yep. Indy_Bet: Follow IndyCarWeatherMan on Twitter. The dude is like spot on with gaps and no like, it all depends on whether we get a break, right? Or they have to run around when they drive the track or something. @iN8Rodgers: I think you like I would lean the over because of the weather but then also when you think about how IndyCar does not want to end this race under yellow and so if there's a you know a wreck in the last 10 laps they would rather they'll throw a red and that will just you know the clock will really tick up on that yeah. @f1capper: Yeah. Indy_Bet: Right? @f1capper: throw everything. Yep. Yep. Yeah. And that was another question I had about that was how are they actually going to calculate that in a situation like that? Where are they pausing the quote unquote race? I don't think that is the case with these books. They're just going to say from beginning to end. So that's what definitely one is something I want to pay attention to. But if I do see that it is actually going to be clear the rain impacts or any rain impact won't happen until like an hour or even couple hours after the race. I might even dabble at that under for the two hours and 55 minutes. ⁓ Again, all of it's gonna kinda correlate because it's gonna correlate with the cautions as well too. So I might just be pushing some chips in on everything to be under just expecting that we see less cautions, we see those, know, abbiate that we don't have any rain. Mm-hmm. Indy_Bet: One one last one here that I think it's fun especially if you know you're a casual better or you just want something to cheer for over under winning car number Caesars has a winning car number under ten and a half at even money So you get pillow you have to dodge Malukis, but you're getting pillow Pato McLaughlin Joseph ⁓ Dixon You know from guys in the front that's pretty much @iN8Rodgers: And don't forget Kiffin Simpson. Indy_Bet: Oh yeah. It's Eagle. You know, so if you, you know, if you're already been in the Lucas 901, you want to under 10. I think those are like, those are fun, just fun little bets. It's also a way to get a piece of pillow in the action. So you're not totally funny. @f1capper: Yeah, the goat, the ganassi goat. @iN8Rodgers: Exactly. @f1capper: Well, you don't have to be casual for that. I did it at the 11 and a half before qualifying. I did that last year. I do it every year basically. ⁓ And then, yeah, my mind didn't realize that, okay, so 10 and a half, like, wow, I maybe got value. No, it doesn't matter because it's just Catherine Legg. That is the number 11 car. So it's like, doesn't matter. 10 and a half, you're gonna see, yeah, exactly. And I was like, ⁓ God, I'm done. But anyways, it doesn't matter like I just do that bet every year. It doesn't matter I just that's the bit because of that angle that you just called out. So but yeah, it's better I mean, would you say minus 105 10 and a half? It's just it's that's ⁓ it's even money even better Yeah, you can get it even my yeah Indy_Bet: Even money. @iN8Rodgers: And I actually gave that play out on our like season preview in February and I got a minus 120 so now I'm kind of you know like I was yeah @f1capper: And that's what it's at. That's what it's at right now still is at minus 120. So I mean, take the take the free free big there. You you get the 10 and a half and it doesn't matter. Like the 11 car is not going to win unless you really think that better take that whatever 80 to one hundred to one says she's at if you think that's going to happen. So I @iN8Rodgers: Right, exactly, ⁓ @f1capper: But yeah, no, I like the play. think it's, mean, every year I do that. Yeah, and then Chevy winning manufacturer. You still have an opportunity, by the way. You can get it at minus 140 on BetUS. So it did creep up from the last podcast that we did. And I think that is a little bit higher on Caesar. I think it's around minus 165. So you still have an opportunity, but yeah. Well, the cool, let's quickly, actually, first off, grid rival, price picks, call out the plays that you have, and then I'm here to quickly do a live card with you guys. I wanted to save it for the recording before I placed anything. @iN8Rodgers: Okay, yeah, I mean I will probably just pull up prize picks every like two hours and throw another one in but I just have two for right now. ⁓ This first one I said I was playing by Mechs rules where... ⁓ @f1capper: Yeah @iN8Rodgers: It's actually Grosjean too. So it's like you already want to fade Grosjean and then he's the one driver that chose skim milk And so I took the worse on Grosjean. He's the one skill milk skim milk driver this year I took a better at Jack Harvey at 19.5. So they're both kind of in that 20 range a little correlation there and the double fade on Grosjean ⁓ on mechs rules and ⁓ The second card was a I'm taking the worse on Lundgaard. I just still have not been impressed with him on oval @f1capper: Ugh. @iN8Rodgers: even I think McLaren's hasn't showed up as much as you would think they would this year at the 500 and then this was my another chance for me to jump on Armstrong like I do every single race all year at better than 14.5 so another kind of correlating of numbers but those are the only two I have so far those are both on prize picks @f1capper: Okay, nice. like it. Yeah, PricePix is giving favorable numbers. And if you're listening to this and you're new to pick-ups or you got to download GridRival, you got to use it, by the way. It's there. They're going to be the most sharp when it comes to the placements. And that's how you can compare between PricePix and the odds, because they mean there's some favorable stuff you can find. And on the opposite end, too, you might be able to find something favorable on GridRival when they adjust. ⁓ Mike, what do you have? Indy_Bet: I'm gonna live in Loserville. I like both Stingray under on grid rival. He's at 26 and a half right now. Give me worse than that. Howger worse than 23 and a half. I'll take that and even a little less conviction but Katherine worse than 27 and a half. So Let's just say they're going to go around all three very slowly and not crash. I got to avoid three or four cars crashing. That's 29. So that's 29 or 30, 31, 32, 33rd place. I still have a little bit of room for them to come in as the bottom three cars. I think those are the three worst and slowest drivers out there. So I'm going to go worse on all those. I agree with the Lungard, Fade. I also have a Rossi worse than seven and a half that I'd be interested in ⁓ Given the fact that he's busted up and his car is busted up. So yeah, so I'm gonna live on the bottom of the field on grid rival again @f1capper: No, that's the way to play, man. It is play now. Catherine has definitely, she's moved to 28 and a half. I won't touch it there because I think that's where, that's the spot where she might land, ⁓ especially with some DNFs. You never know. ⁓ But Stingray, you said you got it at what, 24 and a half, right? Indy_Bet: I'm still looking at Catherine on grid rival. You looking at price picks? She's 27 and a half still on grid rival. Halgert 23 and a half, Stingray 26 and a half. So basically. @f1capper: ⁓ I'm looking at price picks, yeah. Okay. Yeah, yeah, I was looking at because I wanted to do the stingray one. I love the stingray one on price picks at 24 and a half. I definitely want to go more on that. And then I'm thinking I'll look to see who I want to pair it with. But definitely at 27 and a half, I'm to take the Catherine horse for sure. And breaking news, we got some matchups. So I am definitely going to dabble with some matchups immediately. That's something that jumped out to me. I think I like taking the plus numbers when it comes to matchups. I do. Just it's something I like to do also with F1. It's favorable to you. ⁓ Hunter Ray to Helio sounds interesting at plus two and a half. I just don't know what I'm gonna get out of those two to be honest with you. That kind of struck out on me. ⁓ Hell, you talked about Sato. He's plus three and a half to Daley. If you think he's gonna be strong, that might not be a bad play to do. ⁓ Yeah, I know. That's why I won't touch that one. Indy_Bet: Yeah, I like Daily too though, so that's tough. @f1capper: The others are very, I think these are very tricky. These are very, very tricky. Like when you look at Joseph Newgarden to Kirkwood, like my mind says take Joseph Newgarden for sure. So I'm considering it. ⁓ I don't like to do the negative side of the numbers, but I'm gonna look to play it. I do, I don't know, man. ⁓ I think I might just do the Lungard on price pick and pair that with Rob. Stingray and then I Think I like the I was actually looking at Rossi fading Rossi at six and a half on price picks He said he was seven and a half on grid rival. So I think I want to take that now on on price picks and yep, and then Daily seems a little favorable at seven and a half. I don't know if I if I agree with seven and a half What does he add on grid rival right now? Indy_Bet: Thanks. @f1capper: Yeah, he's seven and half there too. So probably we'll stay away from that. And Rasmussen is 11 and a half. I don't know if I want his stomach anymore of him, but I'm thinking of taking worse on also Kirkwood at 10 and a half. I think he lands right at like 11, 12. That's kind of where my lean is on that. Any thoughts? ⁓ and then Ray Hall is 17 and a half. I don't know if I want, I might have to throw that in the mix. Uh, let's see, what is he? Yeah, I think the three that I will probably do is Ray Hall Moore, Rob Moore. and we'll do Ross Rossi or Lungard @iN8Rodgers: I'd go Lungard. Rossi said on his podcast that they're using, it's a Speedway car that they used last year when he was, he was decent. ⁓ But he said the Friday practice will be important for them to get in, obviously to shake that car down. But he said he doesn't expect much drop off, but you know, he's, he's got to put some confidence in his team there. So you never know. Indy_Bet: Yeah, low guard, agreed. @f1capper: All right, well, it's in. Okay, well I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna do this three card and then I'm gonna keep playing around with some other cards and I'll definitely have some grid rival picks. Also if you're listening to this, we got the Oscar Weenie 500 ⁓ that we put together. Pretty simple, just get in, I think it's on our Apex Insiders Twitter account. There's a Google form. Just put in your Twitter name or if you're in the Discord, put that. Winners, the... Winning pick will be in the drawing to have two free months of our premium service. So it's nothing to you. You just gotta just put your name in there and sign up and just no emails, no nothing. You're not gonna get any promotions or anything. This is just for fun. So get in there, vote for the corn dog, the fan vote. any last shout outs or anything like that? @iN8Rodgers: Was I was just gonna say I like that we had good synergy on our picks today here so we you know, we could feel Better about riding or die with those on Sunday. Obviously. I'm just really excited for the race and Super pumped for Maxwell. He said he's gonna be there for his first time at the 500. So I'm really excited for him to To be there in person Yeah. ⁓ yeah, I'll be there. I riding early for 7 a.m. Pulling up so @f1capper: That's true, yeah. Indy_Bet: You'll be there, right? Nate, you're gonna be there? @iN8Rodgers: I'm pumped. Indy_Bet: Nate's gonna be hammered in on the prize picks and the grid rivals from the stands like like 10 a.m. @f1capper: Yeah. and @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, no, it's Christmas here. mean, it's like you said, you know, I waited all year for this day, so I threw the moon for it. @f1capper: Awesome. Well, I'm excited. I'm excited for Maxwell too. So, well, I appreciate you guys definitely going to ride or die. We'll have some more picks, I'm sure. So get into the Discord. Like Mike said, everything is live chat. We have always updating where odds are. So just, yeah, get in and we'll get. Indy_Bet: Yeah, keep an eye on Twitter. I'll post everything I bet on Twitter. I always do free. You can decide what you want to do with it. But yeah, good luck. Enjoy. It's the Super Bowl. Bet more than you used to. Have some fun. Get some pools going. Get your family going. Enjoy the race, and hopefully we win some money too. @f1capper: good. Alright guys, we'll see you.