Latest / SILVER / GOLD / $UFD: Surviving Global Economic Shifts | RONS BASEMENT / **SILVER and Gold Stackers!** 🦍 THIS Says WE Are EARLY 🌞 - Don't FEAR

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**SILVER and Gold Stackers!** 🦍 THIS Says WE Are EARLY 🌞 - Don't FEAR · SILVER / GOLD / $UFD: Surviving Global Economic Shifts | RONS BASEMENT

• 0:01
  $90.00 silver right now, but are we just getting started?
• 0:06
  We're going to talk about all the reasons why that could
• 0:09
  likely be the case. We've got a ton of information
• 0:12
  to look at charts, articles, everything pointing to the fact
• 0:16
  that we're in some pretty good shape when it comes to investing
• 0:19
  in silver and gold for that matter.
• 0:22
  I want to say thank you for joining me down here in the
• 0:24
  basement. You guys are awesome.
• 0:26
  We really appreciate the the support, but let's get started
• 0:29
  by checking on the silver price today.
• 0:32
  We'll go on a journey out to the futures market, our good friends
• 0:35
  at the COMEX and see how they're doing.
• 0:38
  Oh, they're not too happy. Wow, guys, as you can see right
• 0:42
  now, we have a silver price at the COMEX of $90.00 per oz.
• 0:49
  Wow. And now we're hearing more and
• 0:52
  more calls that the price could go even higher.
• 0:55
  But let's talk about why we're early in this process.
• 0:58
  There's big reasons why we're early and some fascinating chart
• 1:02
  data that we're going to look at right now.
• 1:04
  Let's go out to Kitco and look at this incredible chart.
• 1:08
  This is, I think, some of the best news, probably some of the
• 1:11
  best silver and gold news that I've heard all week.
• 1:14
  Well, at least in the last seven days, Kitco says.
• 1:17
  Why the real move in gold is still ahead.
• 1:21
  You might think you're late to the party, right?
• 1:24
  Gold and silver have gone up. They're not.
• 1:26
  No, you're not. Because gold is trading about
• 1:29
  5000 and silver is holding your 80.
• 1:33
  That's near 90 now, at least for now.
• 1:37
  Miners and juniors were ripping until last week, yet this bull
• 1:41
  market is still in its early innings.
• 1:44
  The following chart lays out the evidence.
• 1:48
  There was some commentary by Jordan Roy Byrne, he's from the
• 1:51
  Daily Gold. He's awesome.
• 1:53
  And this chart, guys, hold on, take your blood pressure
• 1:57
  medicine because we've got some good news here.
• 2:01
  What this chart shows us is gold market cap as a percentage of
• 2:06
  global stock markets. And there's something very
• 2:09
  interesting that we can see here.
• 2:12
  And that is right now we're way down here.
• 2:15
  It may be 20%. The gold market only makes up
• 2:19
  20% of the of compared to the the world global stock market.
• 2:24
  Easy for me to say, at the end of World War One, right?
• 2:27
  We were approaching 90%, end of World War 2 approaching 90%, end
• 2:33
  of the inflationary decade approaching 90%, which would be
• 2:38
  4 1/2 times higher than where we are right now.
• 2:41
  Now what's interesting about this, what's incredibly
• 2:45
  interesting that dawned on me when I looked at this chart is I
• 2:48
  know a lot of us will think, Oh yeah, but things are different
• 2:51
  now. Things are you know, where
• 2:54
  things are aren't the same as they were back then or were.
• 2:58
  But think about this. All right, I want to show you
• 3:00
  the chart again, something very, very important.
• 3:02
  When we look at this chart, OK, this period right here is well
• 3:08
  here, All right, from World War One to World War 2, about 20
• 3:11
  years from the end of World War 2, we'll say 1940 just to be the
• 3:17
  round off to 1980. This period was 40 years.
• 3:22
  So look, it went all the way down to where we are, even lower
• 3:27
  than where we are are right now and then shot back up.
• 3:31
  But the key thing here is that this was a 40 year period.
• 3:36
  Well, guess what? When you look at where we are
• 3:39
  now, me erase all of that for you, where we look, when you
• 3:43
  look at where we are now compared to the last time we
• 3:46
  peaked right 1980, if my math is correct, that's a 45 year
• 3:52
  period. So this can happen again.
• 3:55
  That's the big take away. We can see this line.
• 3:59
  Let me get let me make it see if I can make it.
• 4:03
  I'll make it when I can't do white, we'll do it green, right?
• 4:06
  Anyway, you get the point. This line can go all the way
• 4:10
  back up to 90%. And this this chart comes from
• 4:14
  Missouri Capital. They point out a couple key
• 4:16
  things. Reasons why global debt is now
• 4:19
  at record highs. Inflation as the path of least
• 4:23
  resistance. Gold still less than 30% of
• 4:27
  central bank assets rising Deglobalization favors neutral
• 4:31
  assets A world of uncertainty 6040 portfolios are now say
• 4:36
  seeking safe alternatives. Think about what we've heard
• 4:39
  from who was that Morgan Stanley it's the end of the 6040
• 4:44
  portfolio 60% what was that stocks 40% bonds or vice versa.
• 4:49
  You get the point. Structurally unsustainable
• 4:52
  fiscal deficits, yes, the United States runs in almost $2
• 4:56
  trillion deficit every year. Global gold production is flat,
• 5:01
  right? And there's no new gold being
• 5:03
  and being found or silver for that matter, in lack of new gold
• 5:08
  discoveries. All right, they aren't finding
• 5:11
  any new gold and they aren't producing any more gold.
• 5:14
  And guess what? The same thing is true for
• 5:17
  silver as well. So look, to say that we're early
• 5:21
  isn't is very accurate. And like we saw, right, these,
• 5:25
  these ratios run in cycles in 45 years is maybe it's overdue,
• 5:33
  maybe it should have happened five years ago.
• 5:35
  So we are early. All right, let's talk about man,
• 5:37
  we got a lot to look at today, guys.
• 5:39
  We're going to go and look at the Shanghai, a new way to look
• 5:42
  at the Shanghai silver premium silver in China cost a lot more
• 5:47
  than the United States. And when you look at it
• 5:49
  visually, it really is stunning silver, if you're in the United
• 5:53
  States, right, real silver, you can get it from our channel
• 5:57
  sponsor First Mint, right? We can still get silver here in
• 6:01
  the United States and 1st Mint is a premium retail experience.
• 6:05
  They're a silver mint specialist.
• 6:07
  They're owned by First Majestic, who mines the silver, sends it
• 6:11
  to 1st Mint, and then they send it directly to you.
• 6:15
  It's world class silver bullion products.
• 6:18
  Here's their new Year of the Horse coin.
• 6:21
  I want to show you that I was. It caught my eye right before I
• 6:25
  went live. Look at that thing.
• 6:26
  It is absolutely beautiful and it has the Chinese calendar on
• 6:31
  the back. You can learn more about them at
• 6:34
  first mint.com. Let me show you their web page
• 6:37
  here real quickly. And there's the year of the
• 6:40
  horse right there. There's the coin.
• 6:42
  They got a lot of other products you can check out as well.
• 6:46
  And on top of that, there is a discount code VIPRB.
• 6:51
  Now let's make believe that we live in China and see how much
• 6:56
  of A premium the Chinese are paying right now for silver and
• 7:02
  for silver in particular. Sorry on this is a new website.
• 7:05
  Sorry guys, there's so much going on.
• 7:07
  Incredible. This is cool gold Silver dot AI
• 7:12
  was sent by one of our fellow basement dwellers.
• 7:14
  This shows the Shanghai silver price in dollars versus the
• 7:19
  western price. So as you can see up.
• 7:21
  Shoot, hold on upstairs. Susie's not here.
• 7:24
  I apologize. Now you're saying it, as you can
• 7:28
  see, and I know you guys are complained about my I'm a one
• 7:31
  man band and it's very challenging to run a live stream
• 7:36
  and share things. Mistakes will happen, but please
• 7:38
  bear with me. This shows the Shanghai Silver
• 7:42
  price, the red line on this chart versus the Western price.
• 7:46
  I mean, look at this, OK, Even just going back to November, it
• 7:49
  was pretty similar. But as you can see as we get out
• 7:53
  into the present day, the red price, the Shanghai price,
• 7:56
  $101.00, almost $102.00. The Western price, as we know
• 8:01
  right now hovering right around $90.00.
• 8:04
  But it's even more interesting when we go down here where they
• 8:08
  have a chart of the premium in red.
• 8:11
  That's the red line over here on the left.
• 8:13
  So right now there's a $12.00 premium.
• 8:15
  And as you see, right, that continues to go up and up and
• 8:20
  up. Hit almost, I'm sorry.
• 8:22
  Yeah, $25.00 right here. At this point, the blue line is
• 8:26
  the premium as a percentage, which you can see there is now
• 8:30
  running healthy at 14%. The big take away here is, OK,
• 8:36
  think, think about this. I think this is critical.
• 8:38
  The reason why we want to look at this premium in Shanghai.
• 8:41
  Yeah, we know because they're the new price setter for silver
• 8:45
  in the world there. It's a physical market.
• 8:47
  But think about this, the world is getting smaller and smaller
• 8:51
  with technology. I mean, it's kind of like, you
• 8:54
  know, the the real price of silver is what it's going for in
• 8:58
  China. The physical price on the
• 9:00
  Shanghai Gold Exchange is the world gets smaller and smaller.
• 9:05
  Those prices, that difference is going to go away.
• 9:09
  OK. It's inevitable.
• 9:11
  It's free market forces. That's the way it'll work.
• 9:14
  It's almost like I was trying to think of a good analogy for you
• 9:17
  to compare this to. But it's almost like if you have
• 9:20
  a car and you want to get rid of it and you go to your local car
• 9:23
  dealership and the local car dealership says, yeah, I'll give
• 9:26
  you $5000 for that car. And then you call one of those
• 9:30
  big online car dealers like CarMax, and CarMax says, oh, OK,
• 9:35
  based on what you told us, we'll give you $6000 for that car.
• 9:39
  I mean, who you going to sell it to?
• 9:41
  You're going to sell it to CarMax, right?
• 9:43
  Because that's the real value of the car.
• 9:45
  So I would argue that the real value of silver right now on
• 9:50
  planet Earth is what they're selling it for in China.
• 9:55
  We got more to look at, more charts, a lot more stuff to look
• 9:58
  at. We are early, I believe, in this
• 10:01
  rally for silver. Here's a great one.
• 10:05
  It shows this is the level of of physical silver in the Shanghai.
• 10:11
  It's not just the COMEX. And we're going to look at data
• 10:13
  on the COMEX here in a second. The COMEX inventory levels are
• 10:16
  getting precariously low, but this is a chart.
• 10:20
  The red line shows the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
• 10:22
  That's their physical silver market.
• 10:25
  In the blue line, Turquoise line shows the Shanghai Futures
• 10:29
  Exchange. This chart goes back to try to
• 10:32
  get the whole thing on the screen to you all the way back
• 10:35
  to two 2023. And as you can see, both the
• 10:39
  Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai futures Exchange are at
• 10:43
  precariously low levels of inventory.
• 10:47
  Let's go to this next screen and we can do the calculations.
• 10:51
  This is an update from the Oriental Ghost.
• 10:53
  We love him every single day, right?
• 10:55
  The price of silver first, we'll, we'll, we'll talk about
• 10:59
  that on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai
• 11:01
  Futures Exchange. On the SGE, the Shanghai Gold
• 11:06
  Exchange, we broke 100 baby, OK, on the Shanghai futures
• 11:11
  Exchange, we're well above 100 at one O 2.
• 11:14
  But we're what we're really here to look at is the silver backing
• 11:18
  up the Shanghai futures Exchange.
• 11:21
  This is getting really crazy. This is the Shanghai Futures
• 11:26
  Exchange, 259,000 kilograms of silver.
• 11:32
  That means OK, based upon our calculations, based on our
• 11:37
  calculations, that is about 8.3 million ounces of silver backing
• 11:44
  up the entire Shanghai Futures Exchange.
• 11:48
  And we saw right how that level has dropped precariously since
• 11:52
  2000. This is happening all over the
• 11:56
  world. It's not just the COMEX, it's
• 11:57
  not just the the LBMA. But Speaking of the COMEX, we're
• 12:01
  going to go there because we got a big update on the paper
• 12:05
  market, the COMEX here in the United States.
• 12:07
  We're going to get to that next. I do want to say thank you to
• 12:10
  channel sponsor First Mining Gold, their development stage
• 12:14
  gold company. You guys requested that I have
• 12:16
  the CEO Dan Wilton on again for an interview for an update.
• 12:20
  I'll be doing that later this week.
• 12:22
  They have two huge multi million ounce development stage gold
• 12:25
  projects in Canada, Spring Pole in Ontario and Duparque located
• 12:31
  in Quebec. I actually, we visited the
• 12:32
  Duparque project. It's incredible what this
• 12:36
  company has in Canada. Again, they're in the
• 12:38
  development phase, they're working through permitting, all
• 12:41
  that stuff, but there aren't many big multi million ounce
• 12:45
  projects in good jurisdictions like Canada.
• 12:48
  Learn more about them at first Mine eagle.com.
• 12:52
  Let's go to the COMEX. Those poor people at the COMEX,
• 12:55
  the the paper exchange here in the United States, we feel bad
• 12:59
  for them because they're under a little bit of stress and metal
• 13:02
  charts sums it up. There's a lot of good reasons
• 13:05
  why the COMEX is in trouble, and here's an inventory update.
• 13:10
  Right now there's a total of 346,000,000 oz at the COMEX.
• 13:16
  The registered amount is under 80 million right now, guys.
• 13:21
  That's the important number. That's the actual silver that's
• 13:25
  available to back up the contracts, the paper contracts,
• 13:29
  the electronic contracts on the COMEX.
• 13:31
  The eligible is silver that's already claimed owned by like
• 13:35
  ETF's, wealthy people, all that great stuff.
• 13:39
  OK. The leverage ratio in total is
• 13:42
  1.6. The registered OK and this is
• 13:45
  what really matters is now at 7.1 X OK and the open interest
• 13:51
  sits at 113,000 contracts, although that's been dropping to
• 13:57
  very low levels as well. 30 day change down 44 million oz, one
• 14:04
  year low of 346,000 oz. OK, a registered just broke
• 14:11
  below 80 million oz for the first time.
• 14:14
  Leverage now above 7X, meaning every registered oz is backing
• 14:19
  over 7 oz and paper claims. Total inventory down 44,000,000
• 14:25
  ounces in 30 days in hitting fresh daily lows.
• 14:29
  The Comex shelves are getting bare.
• 14:33
  Now let's look at some more charts.
• 14:36
  Let's talk about the silver price.
• 14:37
  Suddenly everybody's telling us that is is talking about 100 one
• 14:42
  120 even potential for new all time highs in the silver price.
• 14:46
  Look, I don't have a crystal ball.
• 14:48
  I believe we're just getting started.
• 14:50
  I believe that chart we looked at at the beginning showing gold
• 14:54
  all right, as a percentage of the total world stock market
• 14:57
  pertains great things to come for gold, but also silver as
• 15:03
  well. Silver will be a slingshot.
• 15:06
  If you, I hope you understand what that means, right?
• 15:09
  Silver's due for a slingshot move, meaning as gold moves, it
• 15:13
  brings silver with it. But silver could have like an
• 15:16
  elastic band effect where it way overshoots.
• 15:20
  I'm not saying that the price of silver will go higher than gold,
• 15:24
  although I've heard some people say that could happen.
• 15:26
  But what I'm saying is if gold goes up 2030%, we could see
• 15:32
  massive, massive moves in the silver price.
• 15:35
  Don't forget that happened during the 1970s, right?
• 15:38
  That chart we looked at earlier, right?
• 15:40
  The 40 year cycle, 45 year cycle where gold did very well, but
• 15:46
  silver did even even better. Let's go out to Oren.
• 15:50
  Oren Eblas, a great analyst in the silver sector.
• 15:54
  He put up a chart that I think really sums it up.
• 15:58
  He says right now silver, here's Oren here, Oren Elbaz the the
• 16:04
  Silver hermit. OK, right now silver is close to
• 16:08
  breaking out of this Pennant formation.
• 16:11
  This is not the only technical hurdle preventing it from
• 16:14
  advancing higher. It would also need to overcome
• 16:17
  horizontal resistance around $96.00 an ounce and later at its
• 16:22
  all time high around 100 and 21120 per oz.
• 16:27
  But given its overall strength in 2025, this could happen
• 16:32
  rather quickly. And I thought we've looked at
• 16:34
  this chart several times, but guys, I I think this one really
• 16:38
  sums it up. Here's the high at $120.00 right
• 16:42
  forming the top of a he calls Pennant.
• 16:46
  I hear other people say triangle or wedge.
• 16:49
  The point is that it's time goes by this price, right?
• 16:53
  It's going to have to break out of this zone as it gets in here
• 16:57
  and it could very easily. It just feels like that's the
• 17:01
  way that it's going to go. I mean, think about all the
• 17:04
  craziness going on in the world right now.
• 17:07
  I just had a guy at my house doing some work on my roof,
• 17:10
  Great guy, super smart guy, and he was like, I can't believe all
• 17:13
  the insanity going on in the world right now.
• 17:16
  If you just look at that and look at the safe haven appeal of
• 17:20
  precious metals that provides, it's a huge tailwind for the
• 17:24
  precious metals. But then you couple on top of
• 17:26
  that, that whole list we went through earlier, right, Fiat
• 17:29
  currencies are in not very good shape right now.
• 17:32
  I don't know. It just feels like to me, I
• 17:35
  don't know how you feel about this, but man, it feels like the
• 17:38
  silver price has a long, long way to run and remember last
• 17:43
  year right now, where is he? See him right there, that's
• 17:46
  Smitty the Silver bear. See, his little little bandana
• 17:50
  or whatever you call it, it says 85 dollars.
• 17:54
  We had a blindfolded bear back there with $85 on his blindfold
• 17:58
  that we said we would take off when silver hit $85 an ounce.
• 18:02
  That's why it's off right now. But a year ago, right now,
• 18:06
  people said we were crazy to talk about $85 silver.
• 18:11
  Like, what are you thinking, right?
• 18:13
  You're a silver pumper. You're delusional, right?
• 18:17
  And doesn't it feel very much right now like we are at minimum
• 18:21
  building a base in the silver price in the, I don't know, 78
• 18:27
  to $88.00 range, Maybe it just goes right now that would be
• 18:31
  great, whatever, I'm not going to complain.
• 18:33
  But at minimum, we were developing some confidence in
• 18:37
  this range and it can it can provide a real platform for
• 18:42
  moves as we go out into the future.
• 18:45
  OK, let's talk about the oil price.
• 18:48
  Everybody's asking about it. It's front page news.
• 18:51
  Unbelievable volatility in the oil price right now.
• 18:55
  What does that mean for the precious metals?
• 18:57
  It means everything for the precious metals.
• 19:00
  Over the long term basis, inflation is going to be a
• 19:05
  driving factor for the price of silver and gold.
• 19:09
  There's going to be a lot of noise in between on daily basis.
• 19:13
  We could have days where oil goes up and precious metals go
• 19:16
  down. Noise over a long period of
• 19:19
  time. OK, oil is the driver of the
• 19:23
  world economy, the lifeblood of the world economy.
• 19:26
  And the fact that there's such massive insane moves going on in
• 19:30
  the oil market right now and that oil will likely continue
• 19:35
  higher and stay higher, that will create inflation even where
• 19:39
  we are today. But do you realize how crazy
• 19:41
  things got with oil over the weekend?
• 19:44
  Let's dig into oil a little bit and and talk further about what
• 19:47
  that means for the precious metals.
• 19:50
  And oh shoot, I forgot to share the right screen last time.
• 19:57
  I apologize, guys. There's the there's the Pennant
• 20:01
  that we had from Oren and here we go.
• 20:04
  Here's what's going on in oil breaking oil prices collapse
• 20:07
  below $84 a barrel. This is after they were over
• 20:12
  $120.00 a barrel. But what I really want to show
• 20:16
  you is. This next one, there's the
• 20:19
  breaking oil prices collapse to 84 from 1:20.
• 20:24
  And I'm sorry, upstairs, Susie is out running errands, so she's
• 20:27
  not here to yell at me. Boy, when she watches this one,
• 20:29
  I'll be in big trouble. But here we go.
• 20:32
  This is the Brent crude chart. OK, guys, look, when we look at
• 20:38
  this chart, you have to realize it went all the way up to $120
• 20:43
  on Sunday night. But what's really important to
• 20:46
  see is this, OK, if we draw a line right here at $69 per
• 20:53
  barrel in oil, as you can see over the last one year, we were
• 20:58
  pretty much in the 60 or 60 right there, 60 to $70 range.
• 21:04
  This move up here to even where we are right now today down
• 21:09
  $12.00 a barrel, but at $86 is highly, highly inflationary.
• 21:15
  That's why. And you see it immediately at
• 21:18
  the gas station, the price of gas shoots up.
• 21:21
  But oil is in everything, plastics, everything around you.
• 21:26
  The guy that was just at my house working on my roof, he's
• 21:28
  like, yeah, oils. That's what house shingles, roof
• 21:31
  shingles are made out of. Oil will create higher oil
• 21:35
  prices, will create inflation. Inflation is the same thing as
• 21:40
  loss in value in the US dollar and is the US dollar loses
• 21:45
  value, the price of the precious metals will continue.
• 21:48
  Can you much much higher. Let's talk about something funny
• 21:51
  about all this as well. Vince Lancey put out a tweet.
• 21:55
  This one is is going to be good for a laugh.
• 21:57
  Vince said this, here's the here's that oil chart that shows
• 22:03
  the oil price going all the way up.
• 22:06
  As you can see over here into that, there's 124.
• 22:09
  That's Sunday night. But what he said was this, which
• 22:13
  is truly hilarious. He said oil is the new silver,
• 22:17
  meaning the crazy volatile, volatile moves in oil are
• 22:22
  similar to what we are seeing, what we have seen in silver.
• 22:26
  So all right, guys, thanks for being down here in the basement.
• 22:28
  Sorry for the technical issues, I do my best.
• 22:31
  I know you guys are very understanding.
• 22:34
  It's a I'm the one man band down here trying to to deliver to you
• 22:38
  as much value, fun, camaraderie, entertainment, all about the
• 22:42
  precious metals community. I really appreciate you coming
• 22:45
  down here into the basement with me.
• 22:47
  If you've enjoyed your time here, please subscribe to the
• 22:50
  channel. Just press the subscribe button.
• 22:54
  I want you to come back to the basement.
• 22:56
  Have a great day. OK.
• 22:57
  And I will see you. Yeah, I see you.
• 23:00
  I'll see you next time. Bye.
• 23:02
  Bye.