Latest / SILVER / GOLD / $UFD Meme Coin Investing & Global Economics / SILVER STACKERS 🚨 ALERT! 🚨 -- TRUTH about SILVER PRICE ... (Gold Price too) - Silver Elephant Mining
Transcript
- 0:00$44.00 silver by Christmas. That'll be my first question for
- 0:05our guest today, John Lee. He's a respected voice in the
- 0:09precious metals community and he's the CEO of a silver mining
- 0:14company, Silver Elephant Mining. John, welcome to Ron's Basement.
- 0:20Hi, great to be back in your show.
- 0:21Ron, I think this is our third acquaintance.
- 0:24Yes, well, it's, it's great to have you.
- 0:26I watch all the videos that that that you put out.
- 0:29You have great insights into the silver price.
- 0:32So if I ask you that question, John, I'm, I'm predicting we
- 0:36could get to 44 dollar silver by Christmas.
- 0:38Am I crazy or is it possible? Well, I think that's a bit of a
- 0:43belated forecast. I believe last time we talked or
- 0:46not not so long ago, three months ago when silver was $32,
- 0:51the gold was barely 23 fifty 2400 and then in the blink of an
- 0:55eye gold right now we're printing almost 2700.
- 0:58Yes, silver stroke still struggling to break out of that
- 1:01323250 handle spin. A couple of reasons we talked
- 1:06about the last, the last our last broadcast is China is going
- 1:12through in the last 18 months what the what's similar to what
- 1:17US has come through in the financial crisis in 2010.
- 1:20There's a complete collapse of the real estate market.
- 1:23And I was actually just in China for business related to Soviet
- 1:27elephant and the slowdown is very evident.
- 1:30And I was in Beijing and others second tier cities are still,
- 1:35you know, boasting population of close to 10 million people.
- 1:38And the, it's a very somber tune that I am singing.
- 1:44And, and, and also a very clear separation of the east versus
- 1:50the West. Like, for example, Google is, is
- 1:54complete cease to function. The Google Maps, the Google
- 1:57reviews, just the Google for everything.
- 1:59It stopped working there. And it's, it's almost like
- 2:03everything stood in time. Friday was right before COVID
- 2:06of, of the places I visited. And, and, and you know, there's
- 2:10no reviews since 2020. And it just seemed like
- 2:13everything stood still. Friday was five years ago and
- 2:17All in all and, and China is one of the biggest silver consumer
- 2:21in terms of industrial applications and also one of the
- 2:24largest silver producer because a, a, a number of major silver
- 2:29smelters are based in in China. So I think a lot of that laggard
- 2:33on in silver has to do with the slow down in the Chinese economy
- 2:39and, and so the moving forward and the, the, the, the, the fate
- 2:44of the silver again would then rest on quite a bit on what's
- 2:48going to happen with the decision made by the, by the
- 2:52Chinese echelons above, whether they choose to reflate economy
- 2:57by printing more or are they more continue to to continue
- 3:02their path of the deep reform, right.
- 3:04I, I, I, it's the, the judges still out there.
- 3:07I mean, they could do something that the United States can never
- 3:09do because the elections comes every two years on the, on the
- 3:12Congress in four years on the, on the, on the presidential.
- 3:15So I don't think it's out of the question.
- 3:18In fact, Ron, I will go a step further and say that if silver
- 3:23were to make a run past $32 and if silver were to go past $32
- 3:28for say more than two, ten trading days for two weeks in a
- 3:31row, then the silver mark is clear to challenge 50.
- 3:34I don't think there's much resistance between 32 and 50.
- 3:37And and I'll go further to say that if silver to make a run, it
- 3:41will likely run between now and and November.
- 3:46And the reason is I think gold is really already reached my
- 3:50target of 2800 from the top and bottom handle, the bottom being
- 3:54the neckline being 2000, the bottom being 2015 low of 1200.
- 3:58So if you do extrapolate down to the other side, then that the
- 4:02target is 2800. That was my target at the start
- 4:04of the year. So the run for gold if it is any
- 4:08any sort of a, a conventional run up, you know not then then
- 4:14gold is this gold bull market is what he loaned in the tooth.
- 4:18And then and then if you look at the oil price and copper price
- 4:22and the silver price are stupid if a laggard.
- 4:24So either gold stays where it is and then silver play catch up or
- 4:29you might see a correction in gold back to the around the 2200
- 4:34moving average of about $2300, in which case silver is going to
- 4:37continue to consolidate at that 28 to $32 level.
- 4:41Couple of caveats. So I do want to mention because
- 4:44it's the question is the markets are never black and white is
- 4:48that the dollar had a major correction in the last 16 past
- 4:5212 months coinciding with the bull marketing goal.
- 4:55So I've been saying I believe in the last show that one of the
- 4:58indicators to looking at whether we're approaching sort of a
- 5:01intermediary top for the metals market is looking at where the
- 5:05dollar is. And the dollar right now has
- 5:08gone down around 8% from 1:10 to about 1100.
- 5:12And 100 is a very, very strong support is a 10 year support
- 5:16level. So for the dollar to go down
- 5:19further below 100, that's going to really take some something
- 5:23quite extraordinary. And I cannot think of anything
- 5:26if if anything, the interest rate is actually what I call it
- 5:32sell rumor. So buy on sell on rumor and buy
- 5:37on news for the dollar. So what I mean by that
- 5:38everyone's been selling the dollar anticipating the interest
- 5:41rate cost and now the interest rate cut has happened.
- 5:45So people are being selling on the rumor.
- 5:48And I think that they're going to, you know, in terms of
- 5:51contrarian point of view, they're going to be buying the
- 5:54dollar on the news that the the cut has already happened.
- 5:58And I think the room for further costs is quite limited.
- 6:01And then the last caveat is then you throw in this election cycle
- 6:05that's coming in and if history is any guide, there was a very
- 6:09extraordinary managing of gold and silver prices in 2010
- 6:14leading up to the election. So, so you know, there was a
- 6:18major lid on the metal prices. There's there's only one in sort
- 6:22of the breakout and have people start questioning of what's
- 6:24going on in the financial, financial market.
- 6:27So All in all, my feeling is the window for silver is narrowing
- 6:33and closing is closing is closing down.
- 6:36If if it needs to make a run up, it needs to do so very, very
- 6:39quickly and it needs to and it needs to do so in defiant of a
- 6:44rising dollar. It's not like it's impossible.
- 6:46I think today's a good example. Silver is up, 1% of the dollar
- 6:50is up. So it's not impossible.
- 6:52But then you know, in the end, if, if, if you want to, if you
- 6:56want to do a forecast based on fundamental technical analysis
- 6:59and then you got to stick to your guns, right?
- 7:01You cannot, you cannot just say this is the one off and and this
- 7:04time is different. Well, if, if, if, if this time
- 7:08is different, it's all the reason you can give it.
- 7:10Then what's the point of doing all these analysis?
- 7:12So I am not as so my point is silver should have been at 50
- 7:17already. I'm I'm a little bit let down on
- 7:19it's not and you see the reason on the oil and base metal prices
- 7:23and slow down in Asia. And then gold is leading the
- 7:26pack and is is running a bit about the steam.
- 7:28It's a little bit lethargic and so that if it's going to make a
- 7:31run at 44, might as well be 50. It needs to do so sooner than
- 7:36later. But you got this election cycle
- 7:38that's exerting real pressure. So I wouldn't bet the farm right
- 7:42now. I I myself am not, but then, but
- 7:46then I'm not out all out of my position.
- 7:47I still have a big position. It's so relevant.
- 7:50So you know, it's never kind of dry and and the glass is so
- 7:54half, half, half full and half empty.
- 7:55That's my SO, that's my prognosis at this time.
- 7:58Yeah, yeah. So it sounds like the the window
- 8:00of opportunity for a run is shrinking.
- 8:02But what about if you think two or five years out in the future,
- 8:07do you give that any thought when you look at silver?
- 8:09What are you, what are your feelings for the silver prices?
- 8:12Maybe we go out into that time frame.
- 8:14Right. Everybody has a different risk
- 8:17tolerance and time horizon. That's something sort of a
- 8:20cookie cutter template as a chartered financial analyst will
- 8:23give you this, this a dodge applies especially towards the
- 8:30gold and silver market. So if you look at a, if you look
- 8:33at a AA40 year chart from 1980 to say today in a given 10 year
- 8:40and I think it it given a 10 year window a given decade, gold
- 8:44and silver will probably stay at about about two years going up
- 8:49more even less than that. I mean every average bull market
- 8:52for silver is about 12 months. So it was, it was an average
- 8:56about 12 months going up or two years going up to several
- 8:59occasions that say and then three years going down and then
- 9:02and then and then five years of doing nothing.
- 9:05So given that again, if you look at that cup and handle
- 9:09formation, it's a major breakout.
- 9:11It's it's over a a decade long cup and handle formation for
- 9:15gold and also for silver. And it's not broken out of that
- 9:19neckline of 2000. And so we're still covering a
- 9:22$30 level, which is the neckline and it's broken out of 2800.
- 9:29Usually these metals run, I can give a different, a lot of
- 9:31different reason for that. Usually they run and they will
- 9:34run non-stop until the buy and exhaust.
- 9:36And in fact the cartel will fuel the fire and to to exhaust the
- 9:42buying and cartel. The reason to do that is, you
- 9:45know as the price go up, your buying power for the number of
- 9:47gold monument gold and silver you buy is reduced.
- 9:50So they will try to create that top from there they will stop
- 9:54picking on it and picking on it, picking on some more.
- 9:57So I would say you don't want to be, you don't want to be, you
- 10:00don't want to be riding all the way down.
- 10:03Even if your time horizon is is five to 10 years.
- 10:06I would say we are we're within months of of establishing a top
- 10:10for gold. And if that's the case, then
- 10:14then I don't really have a short term forecast for, for gold and
- 10:18silver. I would just say this, this,
- 10:20this gold run already reached to my expectation.
- 10:24But there's other factors. You know, there may be a
- 10:28paradise shifting in, in the dollar resource standards and
- 10:32the advent of digital currency and, and the ways to circumvent
- 10:35that. And, and there may be other
- 10:37factors out there, but I am not in the camp of, of the dollar's
- 10:41divide demise. It is still the king of fiats.
- 10:44And so I, I don't see the, I don't, I just put it this way.
- 10:47I, I don't think the gold is going to grow the move because
- 10:50the dollar is, is, is going on to the toilet.
- 10:52I don't, I don't see that the case.
- 10:54So, and, and if the, if, if, if my thesis is true that gold is
- 10:59making a top, whether it's 2800 or it could blow off to 35 or
- 11:02even 4000, this is going to be the top that's going to be there
- 11:05for a while because I just don't know.
- 11:07I don't see any other particular crazy scenarios that's going to
- 11:11be additional catalyst to where gold already is.
- 11:14Right, right. As as the CEO of a silver mining
- 11:17company, if we shift over to the, the, the general silver
- 11:21mining sector, do you think $30 silver if we maintain that level
- 11:26and you know, build a floor there and maybe you know, move
- 11:28up from there, from there, is that a good environment for the
- 11:31silver mining sector? No, no.
- 11:35If you're looking to buy gold, silver or platinum, do yourself
- 11:38a favor and check out Pymbecks, the online precious metals
- 11:42bullion dealer and sponsor of Rons Basement.
- 11:46I was a happy customer before they offered to support the
- 11:49channel. You'll find they have the best
- 11:52prices, quality and service. I think Pembex is best and you
- 11:57will too. And be sure to tell him that
- 11:59you're from Ron's basement. I would say, I would say, I mean
- 12:03gold, gold and gold mining company, probably some better
- 12:06gold mining company, some better than silver mining company is
- 12:08certainly for copper, copper miners.
- 12:11But whereas silver is really hasn't caught up with inflation.
- 12:13And if you look at the gold to silver ratio right now, it's
- 12:16around 8385. That is that is on the high side
- 12:19that his stock average that his stock average is around 70.
- 12:23So I, I to say a 2020 $600.00 gold and a 70 gold to silver
- 12:27ratio. A gold should be closer to $40
- 12:29and it's $30.00. And, and, and if you look at
- 12:33the, if you look at the quarterly financial statements
- 12:36of the major silver producers, they are losing money at a $30
- 12:41silver and, and coincided with the lack of additional
- 12:45investments exploration because silver prices in the builder in
- 12:48the last 10 years, a lot of the, a lot of the reserves, silver
- 12:52mining miners reserves has been depleted.
- 12:54And you see the first Majestic has made a major acquisition and
- 12:57made a very, very heavy dilution to acquire Gadol at a, at A at a
- 13:01fairly big large premium. So I think a combination of just
- 13:05the lack of, you know, catch up on the in that exploration
- 13:09investment to add additional resources and also that the
- 13:12current silver prices has to really cut up inflation so that
- 13:16the miners are not delivering cash flow and dividends.
- 13:20Show that that the prices got to be a lot quite a bit higher in
- 13:23the 40 to $50 range to justify silver mining companies as a
- 13:29mainstream capital investment. When I say mainstream, meaning
- 13:32people buying companies for cash flowing for, for dividends, and,
- 13:36but clearly, of course, investing in mining companies,
- 13:39this is better art than science, meaning that you're, you're
- 13:41buying majority people are buying silver mining companies
- 13:45not for the cash flow, but but rather for the optionality for
- 13:49the, the answers in the ground and for a forecast of higher
- 13:52silver prices. And and while sacrificing a a
- 13:56bit of dilution in in in depleting reserves and, and and
- 14:01in some cases money losing endeavors.
- 14:05So, so I guess I have a A2 part question for you then.
- 14:09If the big mining companies are not making money, I would think
- 14:13that there is then limited investment being made into
- 14:17exploration, the future pipeline for silver coming onto the
- 14:22market. And you and I could talk I think
- 14:24for hours about the supply demand fundamentals, you know,
- 14:27the skyrocketing demand for silver from the solar panel
- 14:32industry, from electronics, everything else.
- 14:35But if the big mining companies don't have the money to invest
- 14:40into their future pipeline of silver ounces in the ground at
- 14:45some point does does does that supply demand dynamic impact the
- 14:50silver price directly? And then I guess second part of
- 14:53my question is flow through to the development stage,
- 14:57exploration stage, silver companies like Silver Elephant
- 15:01and that those big companies are going to need to just acquire
- 15:04companies to, to, to to plug that hole in their pipeline.
- 15:09Yeah, I, I think of the second part of the first part, I saw a
- 15:14bit of doom and gloom and, and, and that's been reflected
- 15:18somewhat or if not fully reflected in the current junior
- 15:20prices. Even though, even though that's
- 15:23just say the likes of Silver Elephant has already doubled
- 15:25this year from the bot from from the 25727 cent of your entry
- 15:30point when we talked, you know, in the spring or in early
- 15:32summer. But it's still around 6070% from
- 15:36what it was three years ago in 2021.
- 15:39And, and we have Silver Alpha actually being one of the better
- 15:41performers in, in the silver junior marketing 20 in, in 2024.
- 15:46And some our peers are still way at the bottom, like historical
- 15:49bottom even we have a rebound in the silver prices.
- 15:53So what we discussed a lot of that has been factored in that
- 15:56there's been a bit of nonchalant response from the major
- 15:59companies. There's not an awful lot of
- 16:01acquisitions of junior company by producers because they are
- 16:04also trading at a very low level.
- 16:06And that also there is just to be being a very apathy of lack
- 16:10of interest in, in the, in the junior mining sector and and
- 16:14even in the silver mining producers.
- 16:15And we also talked about management of the silver market,
- 16:20not only in the silver metals market, but also in the mining
- 16:25shares market in, in a typical debt, I believe some of the
- 16:29householding like First Majestic, probably 6080% of the
- 16:32shares are outgo driven. Even the case of silver
- 16:34elephant, I know that I server my shareholders, I know who my
- 16:37shareholders are. Nobody's trading and yet you
- 16:40have all the people that are selling the market, which is
- 16:43which is unexplainable. And so, so you got all this
- 16:47negative factor working against it.
- 16:48Yeah, I mean the stock is climbing that wall of worry.
- 16:52And so I believe that any, any bit of a sort of a revise of the
- 16:57outlook to the upside will have will have a material impact on,
- 17:02on the metal price on, on the, on the mining share of prices.
- 17:05Now go back to the supply demand.
- 17:07I hold a little different view. I think we, I'm also talked to
- 17:11you before, my view maybe slightly different from your
- 17:13other other guests is that is that the metal prices and
- 17:18commodity prices or any market for that matter in the last
- 17:2220-30 years are almost entirely driven by speculative interest.
- 17:28And, and I think there's not, not a better example than than
- 17:32than looking at oil price back in during COVID.
- 17:35I mean, just because there's COVID doesn't mean that you're
- 17:38not using oil anymore, albeit you drive less, but you need oil
- 17:43to cook, you need oil to generate electricity.
- 17:45You need oil for everything that you do for the military, for
- 17:48everything. And yeah, you see oil went to
- 17:50negative. So, so you can see what oil can
- 17:53do on the negative side pressure by the speculators, they could
- 17:57do equally as much of A damage, but but equally as a bit of a
- 18:01numbers on the upside as as well.
- 18:03So I, I really don't read the industrial demand that much.
- 18:08I mean, if, if that is the best indicator for forecasting silver
- 18:12prices, then then, then, then silver Institute and, and you
- 18:16can pick up any research paper would have predicted silver
- 18:18prices better or better than anybody else.
- 18:21But yet, you know, they're always a bit of a, I mean silver
- 18:25price trading is always a bit of a dart, right dart on the board
- 18:29and you just never know which one you go because because you
- 18:32got all the few different Geo, you got geopolitical factors of
- 18:36China and Asia, a lot of swinging investment demand.
- 18:39Then you got the sorry on the industrial demand and you get
- 18:42the investment demand of which you really don't know when those
- 18:46gold box is going to rotate their gains into silver.
- 18:49And, and so you got all different different, all these
- 18:52different factors. So I, I don't, I, I don't read.
- 18:55And then also on industrial demand, you talk about solar and
- 18:58all the different applications. If silver price were to double,
- 19:05then then in the short term this industrial demand will fuel the
- 19:09fire because silver is a strategic critical mineral
- 19:13that's required for electronics and that and you can't just
- 19:16switch the you cannot just switch off and off with initial
- 19:19order. So they actually will fuel the
- 19:21fire to secure their supply in the next 6 to 9 months will
- 19:24actually buy, you know up in the process.
- 19:27But if silver prices were to be sustainably high, kind of like
- 19:32Palladium, then platinum's going to come into play.
- 19:34In case of silver, there's a lot of different other metals that
- 19:38and also technology could reduce the silver consumption.
- 19:42In the case of solar panel per unit, silver go to solar panels
- 19:45countdown more than 50%. So there's a lot of different,
- 19:47and I'm hearing there's a lot of buzz about floor spar and, and,
- 19:52and, and a lot of different elements that could substitute
- 19:56conductors applications. So I never see silver industrial
- 20:00demand as being the major driving factor in the short and
- 20:03medium term for the silver prices.
- 20:04So rather I, I, I'm more curious as to whether investment demand
- 20:08and silver is going to catch up to where gold is right now
- 20:10because certainly hasn't, right. And then hopefully the A, a, a,
- 20:14a Chinese economy was stabilized to a point where industrial
- 20:20demand is not going to exert a negative to the silver market.
- 20:23Yeah, Yeah. I I want to shift gears and and
- 20:27talk specifically about your company because I am a
- 20:29shareholder. This is a sponsored video, but
- 20:33I'm very excited about what's going on with Silver Elephant.
- 20:36But I have one more question for you regarding just kind of the
- 20:39general silver market. And also this relates to the the
- 20:44junior about the whole silver mining sector as well.
- 20:47How big of a factor do you think it is or small of a factor that
- 20:52those that both I read the other day that the entire silver
- 20:56mining sector combined has a market cap of about $20 billion.
- 21:01And then Iowa. And I also just think about if
- 21:03there's a billion ounces of silver produced every year,
- 21:07that's 30 billion worth of silver.
- 21:09And if you compare that to, you know, the market cap of Apple
- 21:12Computer, it's like, you know, half a percent or 1%.
- 21:15That the fact that the that the that both the physical metal and
- 21:20the mining sector as a whole are so small that if there is any
- 21:25tiny shift of sentiment and money flowing into it, that a
- 21:29tiny amount relative money could be a major impact in those
- 21:33sectors. Right, the size of the
- 21:39supermarket and super mining sector and mining sector in
- 21:42general is a blessing and and it's a blessing.
- 21:46The curse and the reason I say that is as, as I mean, the, the
- 21:50wealth gap is polarized, as you know, so either people have a
- 21:54lot of money or they have no money.
- 21:56And because of the small size of the silver market, it's just not
- 22:00big enough. And that's why I see this
- 22:02diversion of gold and silver. That's why gold when gold to
- 22:05silver ratio went over 100. It's only happened a couple of
- 22:07times in, in, in, in history and, and, and usually when they
- 22:13have that happens when, when there's a major war going or a
- 22:17major and you know, there's a big depression going and just
- 22:21but right now you're looking at equity market at all time high.
- 22:23There's not any, there's any, not any sort of not any
- 22:28extraneous circumstances or war. I mean, there's not any, any,
- 22:32there's not any fear in the market yet.
- 22:34Silver should have been outperforming gold by a long
- 22:36stretch already. Mike was in 2011 post post post
- 22:40financial crisis, right, But it hasn't happened.
- 22:43And and part of my reason I believe I'm searching my head.
- 22:47Why is this happening? You know, typically silver has a
- 22:50correlation to the equity market because it's a speculating it is
- 22:54a greed gain. It's not about this is not about
- 22:57run for the hill. If it's run for the hill, people
- 22:59will not be buying silver. So there's very little
- 23:01speculative interest. That was just on the call David
- 23:04Morgan. He said the the number of
- 23:06subscribers for his newsletter is is is Tabith demand.
- 23:10And so in short, is the market is too small for Elon Musk's,
- 23:15for Jeff Bezos, for the Koch's brothers, for the LBMH, for
- 23:20Zeras, for for the Dubai's, for the Middle East, just too small
- 23:24for the XI Jinping's. I mean, these guys wealth are in
- 23:27the 10s of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars range.
- 23:31There's no, there's not a market for silver for them to get in.
- 23:35So as, as much as much as they're eager to do that,
- 23:37there's not a way for them that the market's not able to absorb
- 23:41the demand, the liquidity. So, so that is the that is the
- 23:46that is the curse, right? But the blessing, the blessing
- 23:50is this and part of the reason I said investment, you might drive
- 23:53the silver prices just like all commodities then industrial
- 23:56demand is higher prices encourages more investment
- 23:59demand, whereas high prices to start industrial demand.
- 24:02So Elon Musk would rather invest silver at 50 then there's a 30
- 24:05because it's bigger bucket and that the fundamentals hasn't
- 24:09changed for silver at 50 versus A20 or the 100 just like
- 24:14bitcoins. It did that the fundamental
- 24:16Bitcoin is, is not different at 60,000 versus 6000.
- 24:20So you can easily make a case for a, a, a, a $5000 gold or
- 24:2510,000 gold just as easily as as as 3000 gold.
- 24:29And you can easily make a case for $200 silver just as well as
- 24:33you could for $50 silver. So I think what we need to wait
- 24:37and see is that is that it's almost like a restaurant you got
- 24:41to you got to reach that critical mass for to get more to
- 24:44get. More, yeah.
- 24:47We're not there. We had a one O 3 O four false
- 24:50starts already on 32, but 30 has got has to be overcome.
- 24:55You have to reach that critical mass and once you reach that
- 24:58critical mass, then you're going to do the run up and it's just a
- 25:01history. Is any guide.
- 25:02The run UPS going to be fast and furious and and the judge is
- 25:05still out of win and see whether this run is going to happen in
- 25:08the next three to six months. Yeah, yeah.
- 25:11Thank you, John.