Transcript

3.9.26 · Washington Post

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Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the reading of the
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Washington Post for this Monday, March ninth. As a reminder,
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Radio I is a reading service intended for people who
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are blind or have other disabilities that make it difficult
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to read printed material. Your reader for today's Rod Brotherton
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and usually we start with Paul Prather's weekly column from
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the Lexington Hair Leader, but Paul took the week off,
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so let's jump right into the news and the lead
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story in the Washington Post this morning is Kameni's son
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chosen as iran Supreme leader, extending hard line rule. Iran's
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selection Muchtaba Kamini, a powerful regime insider deeply intertwined with
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the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to succeed his father as
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supreme leader, cements hardline theocratic rule in a country and
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sends a strong mess of defiance against President Trump. Is
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Iran remains locked in a conflict with the United States
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and Israel. An Assembly of Iran's top Shei clerics chose
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the fifty six year old son of Ayatola Ali Kamini,
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who dominated the country for more than three decades before
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he was killed in Tehran. As the US and Israeli
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forces attacked Iran on February twenty eight. With deep ties
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to the country's security establishment, much Taba Kamini has long
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been a key power broker in the regime, despite never
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holding a former role or becoming a senior cleric. His selection,
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in an announcement carried by state media Sunday, comes during
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a war in which President Trump has suggested he aims
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to topple the Iranian regime. Over a week of punishing
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US and Israeli strikes on Iran have devastated the country's
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military infrastructure and senior leadership ranks, but are not yet
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showing signs of weakening the regime's grip on power. Trump
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said he believes he should have a role in choosing
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iran supreme leader and that the choice of Mujtaba Kamini
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would be unacceptable. Trump told ABC News earlier Sunday that
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if Iran's next supreme leader doesn't get approval from US,
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he's not gonna last. He said there are numerous people
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that could qualify for the role. Iran's Assembly of experts
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was said to have arrived at the decision of tapping
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Mujtaba Commune days ago. But was divided over whether to
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make the announcement during wartime. According to an individual close
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to Iran's clerical establishment, speaking under the condition of anonymity
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to describe sensitive, closed door deliberations, many Assembly members believe
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that such an announcement was too dangerous, with threats from
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Israel that it would target the next Supreme leader, the
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individual said. Israel Defense Forces warned Sunday before the announcement
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that Israel will continue to folly follow any successor in
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anyone who seeks to appoint a successor, saying it would
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not hesitate to target any of the dozens of members
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participating in the meeting. Iran not having a leader, IDF
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spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said is something that makes it harder
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for them to operate the war machine against us. The
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Assembly of Experts has already began targeting twice by Israeli
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airstrikes since the strikes began, when attack targeted the group
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headquarters in Tehran and another hit the group's main building
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in kumb In response, the powerful religious body decided to
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hold deliberations and votes on the next Supreme leader virtually.
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Mudj Taba Kmeneh was long considered to be the top
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contender for the position, body was initially discounted because of
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concerns at passing the position to a descendant of Ayatola
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Kmine could be controversial. The Islamic Revolution in Iran was
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waged in part against hereditary rule of shaz Iran, and
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hereditary succession is generally frowned upon by the Shiate Muslim
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clerical establishment. As head of the Supreme Leader's Office, mudje
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Tabak Kemene acted as a kind of informal chief of
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staff for his father, using the position to build influence,
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especially within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The US imposed
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sanctions on Mujtaba Kamene in twenty nineteen, saying that his
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father delegated a part of his leadership responsibilities to him.
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The designation also said Mujtaba worked closely with the IRGC's
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Kudz Force and the Basij, the military forces paramilitary forces
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responsible for internal security under the IRGC, to advance his
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father's destabilising regional ambitions and oppressive domestic objectives. This was
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the second succession process for Supreme Leader in Iran's history.
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The selection of Mujtaba Khamenei demonstrates the enormous influence the
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IRGC has within Iran's religious and political estabfulishments, said Alan Eyer,
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a senior State Department official on Iran during the Obama administration.
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It's going to take a while for him to exercise
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real power and have his own power base, ayers said.
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Still Eyre said, regardless of who was chosen, Iran's next
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Supreme Leader was always poised to begin as a hand
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puppet to a large extent of the IRGC. He said,
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the appointment shows the Iranian regime is hardening and doubling down,
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according to binhem Bin Telebeu, the director of the Iran
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program at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies, but Teleblue said
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there are also signs that the regime is under immense pressure.
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Mudjtaba hasn't been seen in public since the start of
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the war and the country has yet to hold the
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public funeral for his father. The regime is still fighting,
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Tallyblue sled, but it is also afraid. The next story,
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Trump pursues Iranian decapitation without a plan for what comes next.
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It took only hours into military strikes on Iran for
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the United States to find itself in a familiar but
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unsettling position, the swift removal of a global foe, only
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to confront an aftermath that history suggests will prove difficult
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to navigate. The killing of Ayatola Ali Khamenei marked the
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latest decapitation or defeat of a bitter US adversary overseas,
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following the oulster of the Taliban in twenty oh one,
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the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq two years later,
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the breaking of Momar Gaddafi's grip on power in Libya
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in twenty eleven, and the capture of Venezuelan leader in
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Nicholas mu Duro just two months ago. The United States
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has often followed such triumphant moments with attempts to fill
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the void, deploying thousands of troops, spending billions of dollars
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seeking to nurture fledgling democracies, or, in the case of Venezuela,
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leaving the decapitated government and power. But those efforts historically
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have largely brought disappointment, yielding states that remain riven by
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conflict have revolted against the US role are hardly rank
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as robust US allies. President Trump appears to be pursuing
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a starkly different approach with Iran, signaling that he has
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no intention to use American troops to steer the path
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of a country whose fate has been buffeted by US
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power since Iran's last democratically elected government was ousted in
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a nineteen teen fifty three CIA backed coup. Instead, TREMP
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has sought to put the ONUS on Iran's besieged and
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divided population, saying in a video address early Saturday, when
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we are finished take over your government, it will be yours.
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This will be probably your only chance for generations. Trump's
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inclination to bomb first and then wash his hands of
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whatever comes next in Iran has alarmed US allies. Security
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officials in the Middle East and in Europe, ever, raised
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concerns that the US is unleashing forces that could spill
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across borders, disrupt global trade, and lead to asymmetric terrorist
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attack reprisals, all with no certainty that the remaining Islamic
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hardliners won't ultimately retain their hold on power. Some lawmakers,
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particularly Democrats, have expressed similar concerns. It's like We're going
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to break all the China, and you guys decide how
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to put it back together. That seems to be the strategy,
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said Senator Tim Kaine, Democratic Virginia. On Sunday. Senator Lindsey Graham,
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the Republican of South Carolina, a long time Trump supporter,
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professed that no US plan was needed. It's not my job,
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it's not the president's job to select or even support
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a new government in Iran, Graham said on NBC's Meet
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the Press. In the new Iran, whether it's a cleric
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or a representative democracy, our goal is to make sure
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that it does not become the largest state sponsor of terrorism.
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That is a win for US. Before the Iran stride began,
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CIA examined multiple scenarios for a post Kamine government to
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people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition
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of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence assessments. Agency analysts concluded
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that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the elite armed force
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that answered directly to the Iyatola, would be best positioned
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to take power, but they stopped short of predicting that outcome.
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The Iranian opposition, which has no clear leader, was seen
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as less likely to assume control of the government, which
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has been ruled since nineteen seventy nine by theocrats overseeing
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a nominal democracy. Western security officials cited similar projections and
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interviews Sunday and warned their Iran, a nation the size
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of France, Germany, and Italy and Britain combined, could face
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years of infighting among Sheeite Muslims, who represent the majority
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of its ninety million people, as well as Kurdish and
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Baluchi factions. On Sunday, in phone calls with journalists at
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several news outlets, Trump seemed to revel in the incapacitation
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of Iranian regime and saying that the strikes had wiped
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out potential successors to the supreme leader. After assessing Trump's
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comments and the impact of US Israeli attacks, a German
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security official said, the worry in Berlin and other European
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capitals is that the plan is to have no plan.
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Detailed examination of contingencies obviously have not played out in
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the American mind, the official said, leaving unclear what will
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happen when the bombing ends and the people really go
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to the streets as Trump has urged them to do.
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Trump has expressed willingness to deal with an interim ruling
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council announced in Tehran after Kaminay's death, as long as
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that it has no intention reconstituting the nuclear or ballisticness programs,
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the US says it's eliminating. They want to talk, and
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I've agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them,
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He told The Atlantic magazine Sunday. As whether the US
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would support Iranians if they took to the streets to
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demand a completely new government, Trump said he would have
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to look at the situation at the time it happens.
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A senior White House official, speaking on the condition of
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anonymity about the ongoing effort, noted that the President did
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not commit to immediate talks with the newly announced ruling Council,
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and said only that eventually he will talk. For now,
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Operation Epic Fury continues unabated, the official said, the Defense
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Department's name for the military action direct in and out.
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US military interventions have had some success in quickly leading
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to a lasting democratic rule, including in Granada in nineteen
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eighty three and Panama in nineteen eighty nine, but these
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efforts and more recent wars of regime change, including troops
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on the ground, something that Trump White House has pledged
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not will happen. Trump's perceived lack of post conflict planning
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stands in contrast to major US military missions in recent
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decades that were often accompanied by detailed, if ultimately feudal,
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blueprints for bringing democracy the states ruled by autocrats. The
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most extreme example is a Rock, where George W. Bush
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administration's aspirations of erecting an American friendly ally in the
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Middle East involved planning as extensive as for the invasion itself.
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Even before thousands of US troops massed around Iraq's borders,
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the entire suite of Pentagon offices was dedicated to organizing
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a new Iraqi government, with every expectation it would be
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warmly welcomed by the liberated population. The Saints government in
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Baghdad was quickly toppled, and within months the dictator was
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captured and executed. In May of twenty three, Bush delivered
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a triumphant speech aboard a US aircraft carry or in
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front of a mission accomplished banner. By then, insurgent groups
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had already begun mounting, but the attacks on US and
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Allied forces and an offshoot of the al Qaeda terror network,
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which would eventually become an Islamic state was gaining a
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dangerous foothold. That country soon plunged into a civil war
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that the United States often seemed powerless to quell during
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a near decade long occupation. Trump, then a New York businessman,
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initially supported the Iraqi invasion, but quickly turned against him.
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The massive US investment of resources and attention in Iraq
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was also a factor in the failures to secure a
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democratic Afghanistan. After the rapid ouster of the Taliban government,
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which had sheltered September eleventh, mastermind Osama bin Laden after
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an overwhelming display of US and proxy forces prompted Taliban
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leavers to flee. The United States spent the next two
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decades struggling to pacify the country. Eventually, US troops withdrew
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amid a chaotic collapse in twenty twenty one, as the
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Taliban swept back into power. President Obama, seeking to avoid
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the perceived mistakes of his predecessors, approved a limited Allied
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air campaign with no ground forces in Libya in twenty
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eleven that toppled the regime of Gaddafi, who fled his
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compound and was captured and killed by a Libyan mob
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and being dragged from a culvert. Fifteen years later, that
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country remained split in two pieces control by rival factions,
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though bloodshed has diminished since a twenty twenty ceasefire. After
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campaigning as an opponent of costly US wars overseas, Trump
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has now presided over two military campaigns aimed at regime
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change and as many months, the overnight capture of Maduro
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in early January and the death of Kamene and other
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Iranian leadership figures on Saturday, in a campaign he says
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now will probably be finished within the month. Trump's efforts
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to avert any ongoing US press presence in either country,
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let alone bear responsibility for rebuilding, appears to reflect the
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determination to avoid the enormous costs and earlier conflicts inflicted
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on the US and the tarnished political legacies of his
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predecessors and next. Trump's attack on Iran risks alienating war
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weary supporters, supposedly from Palm Beach. President Trump's major attack
18:33
on Iran has rattle parts of the coalition that twice
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delivered him in the White House, a fracture that potentially
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could spell trouble for a divided GOP as the midterm
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elections approach. Strikes which killed Iran Supreme leader followed a
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visible build up of US forces in the Middle East,
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but Trump's decision to carry them out nonetheless surprise many
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of his supporters, but expected these self described anti intervention
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as president stop short of a direct attack. Nineteen year
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old Cooper Jackson said his phone lit up Saturday with
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messages from his fellow Republicans in disbelief at the US
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attack on Iran. The reaction that reflected not just surprised
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at Trump's decision, but anxiety about what new conflict could
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demand of younger Americans. We often have politicians that are
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way past the age to be able to fight these wars,
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being all ready to say yeah, yeah, go fight it,
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and then that burden falls on my generation, said Jacks,
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an officer with the Walker County Republican Party in Georgia.
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For some voters, Trump's decision marked a clear break from
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the isolationist posture that once defined his political appeal. While
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the more hawkish wing heralded the opening salvo, others in
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the party accused Trump from betraying the populist ideology that
19:57
propelled him to power. Interviews and on social media, supposedly
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Many Trump supporters, both prominent conservatives and rank and file voters,
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were careful to withhold final judgment until seeing whether the
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president could swiftly end the conflict he started, while others
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reaffirm their support for Trump. Ultimately, the Iran operation poses
20:21
a test of how much war Trump's coalition will tolerate
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from a president who promised to end it, particularly a
20:29
prolonged fight brings economic pain to everyday Americans. The base
20:34
is solid with President Trump, and they want him to succeed,
20:39
said John McLaughlin, a long time propholster. It's about national
20:44
security and stopping or on a terrorist state from getting
20:48
nuclear weapons and killing any more Americans. The political stakes
20:53
of the military action are heightened by the approaching midterm elections,
20:58
when the party of a setting presidident often faces stiff headwinds.
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Polls show Trump's approval ratings are at thirty nine percent,
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the lowest since January sixth, twenty twenty one attack on
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the US Capitol. Republicans are worried they could lose control
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of Congress. Beyond the immediate electoral math, the Iran strike
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has also sharpened a longer running debate inside the party
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over what a post Trump identity might look like, and
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which faction of a divided GOP will ultimately dominate. Lake Leff,
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the producer of the Charlie Kirk Show, wrote on x
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that right leaning friends were messaging him in dismay about
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the Iran strikes. This is extremely depressing. Never voting in
21:46
a national election again. If then warned, if this war
21:51
is a swift, easy, decisive victory, most of them will
21:54
get over it. But if wars anything else, there will
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be a lot of anger. Trump told Axios on Saturday
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that he had several off ramps to the conflict, but
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in a truth Social post later that afternoon, he said
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the bombing will continue uninterrupted throughout the week, or as
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long as necessary to achieve our objective of peace throughout
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the Middle East and indeed the world. Hours later, he
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warned a future escalation and I just started. They're going
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to hit very hard today, harder than they ever have
22:35
hit before, he wrote, untruth Social. They better not do that, however,
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because if they do, we will hit them with a
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force that has never been seen before. Three US service
22:51
members were killed in action and five were seriously wounded,
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officials said Saturday morning, a Washington Post ABC News IPSOS
23:01
poll said last month that they found forty six percent
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of Trump voters supporting Trump's US military to force changes
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in other countries, while twenty two percent opposed this and
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thirty percent had no opinion. Trump won his first term
23:19
by attacking the foreign policy of former President George W.
23:22
Bush and calling the US war in Iraq a big,
23:25
fat mistake. He clinched a second term, promising to expel
23:30
the warmongers from the Department and the government, and warned
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that his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, would get
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the US entangled in another costly conflict abroad. He told
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supporters he could end the war in Ukraine in twenty
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four hours. I will stop the chaos in the Middle East,
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Trump told the crowd at his final rally before the
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twenty twenty four election in Grand Rapids, Michigan, I will
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prevent World War three. On the campaign trail, he also
24:04
stressed that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon. Trump
24:07
has repeatedly cast himself in his second term as peacemaker
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of the world and what it needs, claiming credit for
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ending or averting conflicts brought in, arguing that his leadership
24:19
will accomplish what traditional international institutions such as the United
24:25
Nations have not. He swept into office under the banner
24:29
of America First isolationism, but has adopted a muscular foreign
24:34
policy approach, peace through strength. He bombed nuclear sites in
24:39
Iran in the summer, toppled Venezuelan President nicoelas Maduro in January,
24:46
and now was unleashed a barrage in the Middle East
24:48
that he said is aimed at regime change MAGA. Allies,
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long skeptical of foreign intervention, have so far largely stuck
24:58
by the president, even as many questioned its evolution. Drop
25:03
officials cast strikes on Iran last summer as a limited
25:06
intervention than to take out a nuclear threat and pushback
25:11
within his coalition faded as the conflict ended without morphing
25:15
into a broader war. But each conflict is threatened more
25:20
entanglement abroad than the last, testing the movement's tolerance. Trump,
25:25
who is very news cycle savvy, is addicted to the
25:29
glamour and the attention that foreign interventions in gender him
25:33
and his administration, even though they're not making him more popular.
25:37
Kurt Mills, executive director of the American Conservative a right
25:43
wing magazine, it is skeptical of neo conservative foreign policy,
25:47
and said in an interviews Saturday with The Washington Post,
25:51
Natalie Winners, a co host for Stephen W. K. Bannon's
25:55
post podcast War Room, criticized the Trump administration for failing
26:02
to adequately justify the strikes. The message, much like the
26:07
Epstein files, is all over the place. I would think
26:10
they would know their base better, she told the Post.
26:14
Some of his donors are probably happy, so congratulations to them. Meanwhile,
26:20
many of Trump's most loyal supporters have echoed his piece
26:24
through strength arguments. Nearly six in ten Trump voters who
26:28
identified with the MAGA movement supported US using the US
26:32
military to force changes in other countries, compared with fewer
26:36
than three in ten who didn't support MAGA. The Post
26:41
ABC Ipsis poll found I changed my view on MEGA
26:46
a little bit. In order for us to be who
26:49
we are once, we're going to get to support the
26:51
rest of the world, said Robert Pratt, who's seventy and
26:55
a veteran who self describes as part of the MAGA movement.
26:58
We've got to protect our allay, and I think MAGA
27:01
is now part of that. It's not just about US.
27:05
Prince Hid his feelings could change if the conflict in
27:07
Iran lasts for too long, and he doesn't want to
27:10
repeat of the war in Iraq. My concept of wars
27:14
a lot like Trump's. If you're going to do it,
27:18
do it and get it over with, he said, I
27:21
don't want stuff where we get mixed up in some
27:24
conflict that goes on for years and years. On Saturday,
27:29
as Trump continued to direct tax in Iran, Jack saw
27:33
on social media an old tweet from now Vice President
27:36
Jadie Vance urging the US to learn from the failures
27:40
of its war in Iraq. His former congressional representative, Marjorie
27:44
Taylor Green, a Trump ally turned critic, accused the President
27:48
of abandoning in his America First movement and campaign promises
27:52
to stay out of far flung conflicts. Now America is
27:58
going to be a force fed and gas lighted all
28:02
the noble reasons the American Peace President and pro peace
28:08
administration had to go to war once again this year
28:13
after being in power for only a year. Green wrote
28:17
in a blistering post on X head spinning but Maga.
28:24
Then Jacks read in the News that Iran Supreme Leader
28:28
Ayatola Ali Kamane was dead, a major blow against an
28:33
oppressive regime. He thought the US strike could be a
28:38
big success. He said. If we're not entering a long
28:43
term military conflict, it's going to result in the deaths
28:48
of Americans that don't really want to fight it. And now,
28:54
the news that Russia is providing Iran with targeting information
28:59
to tack American forces in the Middle East the first
29:02
indication that another major US adversary is participating, even indirectly,
29:08
in the war. According to three officials familiar with the intelligence,
29:12
the assistance, which has been not previously reported, signals that
29:16
the rapidly expanding conflict now features one of America's chief
29:20
nuclear armed competitors with exquisite intelligent capabilities. Since the war
29:28
began Saturday, Russia has passed Iran the locations of US
29:31
military assets, including warships and aircraft, said the three officials,
29:36
who obviously spoke on the condition of anonymity because of
29:41
the matter's sensitivity. Our next story. Gas prices are climbing
29:47
fast as the Iran conflict continues. Motorists and airline passengers
29:54
across the United States and around the world are feeling
29:58
the aftershocks of the military intervention in Iran, as fuel
30:03
prices surge and market analysts warned they are poised to
30:07
soar further. The average cost of a gallon of regular
30:11
gas in the United States increased by thirty four cents
30:14
in the last week to three dollars and thirty two
30:17
cents on Friday. According to Triple A, cost of diesel
30:23
has grown even more significantly. An analyst expect the price
30:26
of both fuels to keep climbing for now. When oil
30:30
prices first jumped after the launch of military strikes against
30:35
Iran last week, energy analysts expected them to soon stabilize,
30:40
reasoning that political and economic pressures would soon quickly force
30:44
a diplomatic endo the conflict. But the US and Israel
30:49
continue to strike targets in Iran, and the Iranian military
30:53
has launched droans at energy infrastructure in nearby countries, including
30:58
Saudi Arabia and Cutter. On Friday, Cutter's energy minister Sighed
31:05
Sharda al Kavi sent oil prices spiraling further upward when
31:10
he warned in an interview with The Financial Times that
31:13
the continuing hostilities will trigger a halt and oil production
31:18
throughout the Persian Gulf states within days and bring down
31:22
the economies of the world. He said that oil soon
31:25
could reach one hundred and fifty dollars a barrow, or
31:28
then double the price before we launched strikes on Iran
31:33
last week. That would mean US gas prices shooting up
31:38
to their peaks following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in twenty
31:41
twenty two, when they had five dollars a gallon on average.
31:46
If the administration does not do something to restore confidence
31:50
and ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, these prices
31:54
are going to keep heading up, said Patrick Dhan, head
31:58
of the petroleum analyt for the Pricing Gap app Gas Buddy,
32:03
referring to the shipping choke point along Ron's south coast
32:07
where hundreds of tankers are sitting on it. I don't
32:11
wake up too many mornings and get the chills when
32:14
I look at the morning oil price numbers. To Hans said,
32:18
it's starting to feel like twenty twenty two. Alec Jaquez,
32:22
policy chief of the Economic Think Tech Groundwork Collaborative, said
32:27
Trump's apparent determination to continue the conflict has forced energy
32:32
market watchers to take a more pessimistic view of its
32:35
likely duration and impact. The markets are starting to realize
32:40
there may be no quick off ramp here, said Jacaz,
32:44
who advised the Biden White House on energy issues. There
32:49
was this thinking that if oil prices start to soar,
32:52
that the administration would back down on Iran, but that
32:56
is not the way things are aligning. The President has
32:59
shown appetite for changing course. On Friday, the President wrote
33:05
on social media that there will be no deal with
33:07
Iron except unconditional surrender. The pain from spiking oil prices
33:14
is set to extend far beyond gas fuel puffs not
33:18
an airline CEO Scott Kirby set in a conference Friday
33:22
that airfare prices could quickly gain altitude as his company
33:27
confronts runaway jet fuel costs. Shipping prices are also likely
33:32
to go up considerably, forcing businesses of all kinds to
33:37
increase prices. Transportation is a big part of our business,
33:41
said Travis Madeira, co founder of the New York based
33:45
Lobster Boys, which ships live lobsters around the world, and
33:50
when airline prices go up, the cost of sending lobsters
33:53
overseas can be dramatically impacted. Oil and its derivatives are
33:59
also a crucial ingredient for other industries, including plastics, semiconductor chips,
34:05
and gases used in manufacturing. All could become costlier to
34:10
produce as iron conflict continues, ultimately raising prices for other
34:16
businesses and consumers. Iran's ability to launch relatively low cost
34:21
drones at nearby energy infrastructure has made oil and gas
34:26
production more vulnerable than in previous conflicts. In the least,
34:30
said David Doherty, head of the natural resources research at
34:34
market research firm Bloomberg. In ef depending and defending the
34:41
same breadth of space has become much more difficult than
34:43
it was in the past. It's harder to protect oil infrastructure,
34:49
he said. Trump administration's moves to calm energy markets have
34:54
so far had little apparent success. Treasury Secretary Scott Descent
34:59
set on on a post on x Thursday that India
35:03
was given a thirty day waiver on a previous agreement
35:07
that it would not purchased oil from Russia. He said
35:10
on Fox News on Friday that the US may unsanction
35:14
more Russian oil. Earlier this week, Trump said in a
35:19
post on truth Social that the US government will offer
35:22
to sell shipping companies political risk insurance tended to give
35:27
them confidence to send tankers through the Street of Hormones again,
35:31
or even provide military escorts for vessels passing through the
35:35
choke point. Market research firm McQuire set in a note
35:41
to clients Friday that it was unclear how reliable that
35:45
offer was. Escort vessels are often unavailable due to other
35:50
military priorities, such as missile intercepts or striking Iran. It's it,
35:56
The firm warned in the same note that the world
36:00
might soon endure a massive energy price shock. The timeline
36:05
for an extremely large oil price move is very short,
36:08
the firm road a few weeks. Horn Mooves closure will
36:13
create a domino effect of the events that could push
36:16
crude to one hundred and fifty dollars or higher. The
36:21
longer oil and gas remain stranded near the Strait of
36:24
Horn Moves, the more difficult that we become to return
36:28
oil production in the region to levels before the war.
36:33
Gulf states are expected to be forced to pause production
36:36
soon because there is nowhere to send the oil. Fossil
36:42
fuel facilities can take weeks or longer to restart again.
36:47
It's not as simple as flipping a switchback on, said
36:51
vi Amani, a visiting supply chain scholar at Cornell University's S. C.
36:57
Johnson College of Business. You have to get drilling operations
37:01
going again. You'd have to get workers back in. When
37:05
there's a conflict like this, workers leave, and the number
37:09
that come back in may not be as many as
37:12
you need. My knee is among those who now envision
37:17
oil prices may shoot up to one hundred and fifty dollars,
37:21
similar prices last seen in July of twenty eight. But
37:26
she added that the economic pain from such high prices
37:30
could change the course of the conflict very quickly by
37:34
creating immense pressure on the US at Israel to wind
37:38
down their attacks. Extended energy crisis could put President Trump
37:44
under pressure of both allies around the world and domestically.
37:49
Most Americans felt healthcare, new cars, and new homes were
37:54
unaffordable in a Washington Post ABC News HIPSOS poll last month.
38:01
Republicans have tried to make lowering the cost of living
38:04
a central plank of their platform for this year's midterms.
38:08
For now, Trump and his administration have shown no sign
38:12
of changing course. Jackz of Groundworked Collaborative IT said a painful,
38:18
sustained increase in energy costs like that triggered by Russia's
38:23
full scale invasion of Ukraine now appear increasingly likely. It
38:29
almost feels the same, said Jikaz, who advised the Biden
38:33
White House on the energy and natural resources supply chain
38:37
disruptions from Russia's invasions, except in twenty twenty two, we
38:43
didn't choose to do this ourselves. The next story. Trump
38:50
is betting that bigger income tax refunds will boost the
38:54
GOP over the next few months. As millions of Americans
39:00
see politically larger income tax refunds potentially hit their mailbox
39:06
or bank accounts, President Trump wants filers to think of
39:10
who made them possible. The GOP. The administration and its
39:16
allies are trying to gain political capital and midterm election
39:20
year from larger tax refunds they say result from Trump's policies,
39:25
and particular is one big beautiful bill. JP lawmakers structured
39:31
key revisions of the twenty twenty five tax law so
39:34
that several of its most popular benefits apply retroactively to
39:39
the start of the year, boosting refunds this filing season.
39:44
Unlike tax cuts that appear gradually in paychecks, refunds arrival
39:50
at once one of the few moments when tax policy
39:54
becomes visible to millions of Americans. Tax refunds this year
40:00
because of the Great, Big, Beautiful Bill, are substantially greater
40:05
than ever before, he said in a truth post on
40:10
February twentieth that highlighted new tax saving presidential policies, including
40:16
no taxes on tips or overtime interest, deductions on car loans,
40:22
and reduced taxes on Social Security. In some cases, estimates
40:27
that are over twenty percent will be returned to the taxpayer.
40:32
So when you get your tax refirmed, think about what
40:35
a wonderful president you have. Data so far suggests refunds
40:41
are larger, though not as not by as much as
40:45
the administration is claimed. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt
40:50
has said people can expect an extra one thousand dollars
40:53
on average. Treasury Secretary Scott Descent, who is the acting
40:59
IRS Commissioner, has said early returns average north of twenty percent.
41:06
According to early IRS figures, the average refund this filing
41:10
season is up about eleven percent, roughly three hundred and
41:13
sixty dollars, compared with the same point last year. The
41:19
push comes at a moment when many Americans remained pessimistic
41:23
about the economy. Tromp has positioned himself as the antidote
41:28
to economic ailments that dog Joe Biden's tenure, Promising to
41:33
end inflation on his first day in office. He asset
41:36
his signature policies opposing wide ranging tariffs, slashing regulations, and
41:43
tramming of the fat from the federal government would produce
41:46
not just economic benefits, but ussher and an American golden age.
41:53
That sweeping progress has so far not materialized, but some
41:57
sixty percent of Americans disapprove of the job he's doing.
42:00
According to a recent Washington Post Hypsos poll, only thirty
42:05
two percent of Americans approve of how he has dealt
42:08
with inflation and forty one percent of his handling of
42:11
the economy. Trump's tariff policies has sent the stock market
42:16
into paroxysms and were ultimately labeled unlawful by the Supreme Court.
42:21
There's been no Doge dividend, while the country has not
42:26
slid into a recession and has seen even some economic
42:29
bright spots. The President's bullish message countervails the experiences of
42:35
a large swath of struggling Americans who elected him hopes
42:40
of gaining a better economic footing. The challenge has always
42:44
been how do you make it tangible? How do you
42:47
connect the policy changes for people who are not following
42:51
the day to day workings in Washington to their bottom line,
42:54
to their pocketbooks, and to their job security, said Garrett Watson,
42:59
director of political analysts at the Tax Foundation of Policy nonprofit.
43:05
The reason why you're seeing the refund thing becomes so
43:09
salient in the political conversation right now once ended, is
43:13
because it is a bottom line number that they can
43:18
latch onto and materially connect the dots between policy changes
43:23
and their financial situation. The strategy has also highlighted it
43:29
from inter tension inside the Republican Party. Fiscal conservatives long
43:36
argued that tax cuts should be paired with dreathicit reduction
43:41
rather than structure to produce visible payouts to voters. Trump
43:46
himself has repeatedly vowed to shrink the national debt. Trump
43:51
rolled out the no Tax on Tips pledge during a
43:54
campaign rally in Nevada after campaign officials encouraged him to
44:00
into more populous messages. The pledge was especially resident in Nevata,
44:06
a battleground state that is home to Las Vegas and
44:09
nearly half a million tipped workers. Republicans seized on the impulse,
44:15
sending a no Tax on Tips bill through the Senate,
44:19
though the measure wasn't enacted until Trump signed a tax
44:22
and spending measure in twenty twenty five. Congressional Republicans structured
44:27
the populist elements of that bill to be retroactive to
44:31
twenty twenty five, increasing refunds and making a yearly tax
44:37
refund feel more like a government rebate payment. That's a
44:41
direct lesson from twenty seventeen, said Andrew Lotts, director of
44:46
tax policy at the Bipartisan Tax Center. Then Republicans meted
44:51
out the tax cuts and voters didn't perceive the money
44:55
as a windfall all at once. There was a concerted
45:00
interest from Republican lawmakers, the Trump administration Republican Congress this
45:06
time around to backdate some of the benefits. Lott said.
45:11
A lot of the biggest benefits, the tips deduction, the
45:14
overtime deduction, the larger child tax credit, are bat dated
45:20
the January first, twenty twenty five, specifically so that people
45:25
can experience them this filing season. A tax refund, of course,
45:32
is not a rebate from the government and is actually
45:35
the result of an overpayment, essentially a no interest loan
45:40
taxpayers make to the Treasury each year. Still, the administration's
45:45
rhetoric sought to turn something as hohum is doing your
45:49
taxes into a gift from the president. Thanks to President
45:52
Trump signing the largest middle class tax cut in history,
45:58
this is shaping up to be the biggest tax refund
46:01
season ever. We're in it now, Levitt said in the
46:05
February tenth press briefing. From no tax on tips, over time,
46:11
or social Security to the auto loan interest deduction on
46:15
new American made vehicles, plus increases to the standard deduction
46:20
and child tax credit, more money is flowing back into
46:25
the pockets of hard working Americans. Efforts to derive political
46:30
benefits or to stay of off political consequences of economic
46:34
policies by putting cash directly into American pockets is, of course,
46:40
not an invention of the Trump administration. As President Gerald
46:45
Ford sent one time rebate payments of up to two
46:49
hundred dollars to Americans in nineteen seventy five, George W.
46:53
Bush twice offered stimulus checks. One was built as a
46:58
tax rebate, and another was billed as recession relief in
47:04
the COVID era marked the most direct payments to Americans
47:07
in US history. Trump offered twelve hundred dollars per adult
47:11
in the spring of twenty twenty and an additional six
47:15
hundred dollars in late twenty twenty, and Joe Biden's American
47:19
Rescue Plan included fourteen hundred dollars in direct payments and
47:24
also monthly payments to families from the expanded child tax credit.
47:30
Republican strategist Alex Knnant said there is a reason politicians
47:35
on both sides of the isle heap offering rebates to
47:39
Americans their effective economic policy, but restructuring tax filing season
47:46
as a de facto government rebate is a novel idea,
47:50
he said. It remains to be seen whether it will
47:54
be effective for Republicans, especially at a time when so
47:58
many other issues are competing for America's attention. I think
48:03
to the extent that people are getting bigger rebates than
48:06
they expected, that they will be welcome news to taxpayers
48:11
and hopefully make them feel better about their economic situation.
48:15
Konat said the challenge for Republicans is that these rebates
48:21
are coming now and the election is not till this fall,
48:26
and of course people have short memories and next Leiden,
48:32
Iranian ships depart Chinese port tied to key military chemicals.
48:40
Two ships owned by an Iranian company that the United
48:44
States is accused of supplying materials to Tehran's ballistic missile program,
48:50
departed a Chinese chemical storage port this week, laden with
48:54
cargo and headed for Iran. According to a Washington Post
48:59
analysis of ship tracking data, satellite imagery, and Treasury Department records,
49:07
the vessels are part of the Islamic Republic of Iran's
49:10
Shipping Lines, state owned company under US, British and European
49:16
Union sanctions, that have been described by the U s
49:19
State Department as the preferred shipping line for Iranian proliferators
49:24
and procurement agents. The Shadas and Barzin, which can carry
49:30
up to sixty five hundred and fourteen thousand, five hundred
49:35
twenty foot long containers, respectively, had docked at the Gaolan
49:40
Port in Zuzai, a city on China's southeastern coast. Experts
49:46
told the Post that the Gaolan is a loading port
49:50
for chemicals, including sodium pechlorate, a key precursor for solid
49:57
rocket fuel that Iran desperately needs towards missile program. A
50:02
dozen other RSL ships have visited the port since the
50:07
start of the year, but experts said it would be
50:11
notable for Beijing to allow any vessels to depart in
50:16
this moment bound for Iran with weapons related material, as
50:21
they expected China, America's chief and most powerful strategic rival,
50:26
to be wary such an action. While the United States
50:29
and Iran are indirect combat. China could have held these
50:34
vessels in port imposed and administrative delay, invented a customs hold,
50:40
or any number of bureaucratic tools, but didn't, said Isaac Cardon,
50:46
a senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
50:50
to the Post. That's a deliberate policy choice made during
50:56
an active war in which Beijing public calls for restraint.
51:02
Although IRISL operates as a large commercial carrier, Cardon said,
51:08
the circumstances of these shipments strongly suggest that the cargo
51:14
is sodium perchlorate. Given the track record, most parsiminous explanation
51:20
is that they're loading the same commodity they've been shuttling
51:24
for the past year plus, he said. Chinese Embassy in
51:29
Washington did not respond to messages he can comment. The Pentagon,
51:35
the White House, and the US Treasury Department also did
51:39
not respond to requests for comment. The Barzen arrived Saturday
51:46
at the Gaolan Port. Based on how deep the ship
51:50
was sitting in the water when it departed Monday, it
51:52
appeared to have taken on cargo. That data point, which
51:57
is contained in ship tracking data, is known as the
52:00
draft of the ship, also suggests the Shabdis took on
52:05
cargo between the time it arrived Wednesday and when it
52:08
departed Thursday. The maritime intelligence firm poll Star Defense independently
52:14
verified the post's draft analysis. The Gaolan Port hosts some
52:20
of the largest liquid chemical storage terminals in South China,
52:24
said Miad Maleki, a former US Treasury official who worked
52:29
on Iran sanctions efforts, is now a senior advisor at
52:32
the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Malecki said that based
52:37
on the history of transfers of chemicals from the Gaolan
52:41
Port to Iran, the involvement of Irisl, and the movements
52:46
of the bar Zan and Shabdis, his assessment is that
52:50
the two vessels now in transit are carrying sodium percolate
52:56
As of Saturday, the ships were in the South China Sea,
53:00
according to AIS data, which provides real time information about
53:05
vessel position, draft, speed, course and destination, among other details.
53:13
The data was provided by the global intelligence company Capelar.
53:19
The Barzen has dropped anchor off the coast of Malaysia.
53:23
Its destination remains the port of Bandar Abbas, some four
53:27
thousand miles away, where it is expected to arrive next Saturday.
53:31
The Shabdis is currently sailing with about forty five hundred
53:35
miles to go and is expected to arrive at a
53:38
runs Chabadad Park port on March sixteenth. Both parts are
53:44
in the Strait of hor Moves and host major Iranian
53:48
naval bases. Satellite energy from Monday shows black smoke spewing
53:55
from multiple sites. Thatter babangar Rabas was struck in the
53:59
US and Israeli barrages that began last weekend. Treasury Offices
54:05
of Foreign Assets Control announced sanctions last year aimed in
54:11
part in interrupting Ron's ballistic missile production, focus on stopping
54:16
the flow of sodium percle rate and dialtyal se debate
54:22
from China to Iran. Sodium percle rate is used to
54:27
produce ammonium percolated ammonium percle rate, and doctal sebentate can
54:33
be used in the solid propellants that power ballistic missiles.
54:38
In the United States has four years accused China of
54:42
providing its ally Iran with missile related technology and materials.
54:48
Beijing is often denied direct that assistance, and said the
54:52
US accusations overstate commercial or dual use trade. Sodium perklarate
55:00
has a narrow range of civilian uses beyond rocket propellants
55:05
and fireworks. If the ships that departed Gaolan Port this
55:10
week are carrying sodium perchlorate, that would be a departure
55:16
from China's previously approached to balancing its interests in the region,
55:21
said Grant Roomy, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for
55:25
Near East Policy. With missiles and drones raining down on
55:31
Gulf States, any show of support like this toward Iran
55:36
risks souring China's relations with a number of golf countries.
55:40
He continued, It's an uncharacteristically bold strategy. The other twelve
55:47
irisl ownerships that have visited Gaolan Port since the start
55:52
of the year all docked at the same terminal as
55:55
the Barzen and the Shabdas. Draft changes suggest all but
56:00
one picked up cargo. Several, like the Barzen, are known
56:05
sodium perchlorate haulers. According to experts and media reports citing
56:11
intelligence agency assessments and satellite imagery reviews, some of the
56:17
ships cycled through Gauland on a nearly daily cadence during
56:21
the one week period in mid February, as US forces
56:25
amassed near Iran and a second round of nuclear talks
56:29
ended without a breakthrough. Graft analysis indicates that many of
56:34
the vessels unloaded their cargo at Iran's Shahid Raji Port,
56:39
which handles the great majority of the country's container trade.
56:43
Last year, after an explosion at the port killed at
56:46
least seventeen people. A post examination of visuals showed the
56:51
blast was caused by a chemical fire that began in
56:54
a shipping container. Experts said the color of the smoke
56:58
indicated that rates were present. AIS data suggests that some
57:04
of the ships lately have been forced to shift their
57:06
planned routes due to the US Israeli strikes. Three that
57:11
were en route to Badas Abbas, the Hamuni, Abyan, and Arzin,
57:17
changed their AIS destination due to high seas after the
57:22
strikes began, and on Saturday were near Iranian waters. Another
57:27
the BASH stopped transmitting AIS on Thursday, around thirteen miles
57:31
from Bandarabas. Meanwhile, at least two Iri sl owned ships
57:38
on their way to the Gaoland Port. The US and
57:42
Israel strikes have hammered rands, mitchel storage bunkers, and underground depots.
57:48
Tehran's need for propellant precursors just went from urgent to existential,
57:55
Cardon told the Post. And this concludes the reading of
57:59
the Washington Post for today, Monday, March ninth. Your reader
58:04
has been Rod Brotherton. If you have any questions, comments,
58:09
or suggestions concerning the program, please feel free to call
58:12
us at A five nine four two two sixty three nine.
58:16
Thank you for listening, and now please stay tuned for
58:21
continued programming right here on Radio I