Latest / The SPY Trader / The Market’s HighStakes Week: NVIDIA, the Fed, and Defensive Shifts

Transcript

The Market’s HighStakes Week: NVIDIA, the Fed, and Defensive Shifts · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning and welcome to the Spy Trader podcast !
• 0:03
  I am your host , Sunny Sideup , and it is officially 6 am on Sunday , August 23rd , 2026 , here in the Pacific time zone .
• 0:14
  I hope you have your favorite morning beverage ready because we have a lot to cover .
• 0:19
  We are heading into what many are calling the most important week of the year for the stock market .
• 0:25
  We are facing a doublewhammy of potential volatility with the NVIDIA earnings report and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium both happening just as treasury yields hit 20year highs .
• 0:36
  The big question on everyone's mind is whether this bull market can keep its footing .
• 0:41
  Let's start with a summary of the heavy hitters on the calendar .
• 0:44
  This past week was a bit rough , with the S&P 500 , tracked by the SPY ETF , seeing its worst weekly loss in three weeks .
• 0:54
  We are seeing a shift in the mood because of a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve and some rising tensions in the Middle East .
• 1:02
  This week , all eyes are on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh , who is set to speak at Jackson Hole starting Thursday .
• 1:09
  After those July meeting minutes showed some officials are ready to hike rates even more if inflation stays sticky , the market is definitely on edge .
• 1:18
  We also have the Core PCE Price Index coming out on Wednesday .
• 1:23
  If that inflation number comes in higher than the expected 0.2 percent monthly increase , we could see the 30year Treasury yield climb even higher than its current 5.34 percent .
• 1:35
  Now , let's dive into some analysis .
• 1:37
  The biggest story is the NVIDIA referendum .
• 1:40
  On Wednesday , NVIDIA , ticker NVDA , reports its earnings .
• 1:46
  Analysts are looking for revenue near 93 billion dollars , which is almost double from last year .
• 1:53
  Even if they beat those numbers , there is a risk of a sell the news reaction that could drag down the Invesco QQQ Trust .
• 2:00
  We are also seeing a bit of AI spending fatigue .
• 2:03
  While Microsoft , or MSFT , showed strong growth in Azure recently , people are starting to wonder when all this hardware spending will turn into bottomline profits .
• 2:13
  Interestingly , Apple , ticker AAPL , has been praised for a more measured approach to AI , which might make it a more resilient pick right now .
• 2:23
  We are also seeing a major rotation into different sectors .
• 2:27
  As tech feels the pressure , money is moving into defensive areas like Healthcare .
• 2:32
  The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLV , actually hit new highs this month .
• 2:38
  People are looking for safety , and companies like Eli Lilly , ticker LLY , and UnitedHealth , ticker UNH , provide essential services that aren't tied to the AI hype or global conflicts .
• 2:50
  On the other side , Energy has become a top performer .
• 2:54
  The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLE , is acting as a great hedge against the rising oil prices we are seeing due to the escalations between the U.S.
• 3:04
  and Iran .
• 3:05
  So , what should you actually do with your money this week ?
• 3:09
  For those of you looking for growth but wanting to be careful , I recommend a qualityfirst approach .
• 3:15
  Instead of just buying the whole QQQ , look at Microsoft or Alphabet , ticker GOOGL .
• 3:22
  Microsoft , for instance , has a massive commercial backlog and is currently trading about 16 percent below its internal valuation , which gives you a bit more of a safety net than some of the pureplay chip stocks .
• 3:36
  If you are feeling more defensive , the XLV Healthcare ETF is a fantastic stability play .
• 3:43
  It has shown it can handle these high interest rates much better than other sectors .
• 3:48
  And if you are worried about the Middle East or inflation , consider some gold through the SPDR Gold Shares , ticker GLD , or energy through the Vanguard Energy ETF , ticker VDE .
• 4:02
  Gold is testing record highs right now as a fear trade , and energy stocks provide a natural hedge for a diversified portfolio like the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , ticker VTI .
• 4:15
  To wrap things up for the week of August 24th , watch Tuesday for Consumer Confidence data , Wednesday for NVIDIA and inflation numbers , and Thursday for Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole .
• 4:28
  My final suggestion is to keep your core holdings in something like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , ticker VOO , for longterm exposure , but maybe shift 5 to 10 percent of your tactical capital into the XLV Healthcare ETF and GLD Gold ETF to help protect you from any postNVIDIA or postFed volatility .
• 4:51
  Stay smart out there , stay safe , and I will see you back here in a few hours for our next update .
• 4:58
  This is Sunny Sideup , signing off for Spy Trader !