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Opening Statement: Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Game-Deciding Matchups | DC · Disguised Coverage

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And thirty eight. All Bills can win it here, Wake puts it down.
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The kick is on the way out and he's got on the bill.
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Good one, hell good one. He one. They won a party one
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up thirty eight Incredible. What a combat by my Bill Jackson Bills perfect record
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on the line right here, keep it looks side touchdown Kyle Williams touchdown.
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Amazing, I'm believable. They put in william who's hats the full back and
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he scores a touchdown. It's wealthier to face tackle. What's good folks,
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Family, Friends, loved ones, Enemies, Friendemies, Wizards, which is
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Muggles Mudblood's People of Middle Earth to the first episode pertaining to the twenty twenty
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three regular season of Disguise Coverage, the only podcast in existence. It gives
1:32
you an equal amount of blueberries in each muffin and presented by the best Pizza
1:36
in Buffalo, New York, that is One Pipe Pizza. You can find
1:38
the online menu in the episode show notes whether they're here on YouTube or whichever
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podcasting app and or platform you are listening to this show on. In this
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episode of Disguise Coverage, Like I mentioned, this is kind of the first
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real kickoff episode for the twenty twenty three season. The Bills open up in
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New York on Monday Night Football Wall technically New Jersey against the Jets Primetime.
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Allen Rogers, Robert Sala, Sean McDermott, new additions to the Jets squad,
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new addition to the Bills squad. And this is a game that it's
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getting a lot of hype nationally and then obviously locally between the two fan bases,
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everybody's kind of stoking those flames and fan in the flames for the fires
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a little bit. And with that being said, the theme for tonight's episode
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is we normally do in the regular season episodes here on Disguise Coverage, We're
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going to dive into the matchups that will decide this game between the Bills and
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the Jets, but from not just a high level overview standpoint, from a
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schematic standpoint, true actual analysis that goes into these pieces. It could be
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schematic, it could be player based, it could be position group based,
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anything and everything whatever myself and or my guests believe will decide the matchup between
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the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets. And with that being said,
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i'd like to bring my guest onto the show at this time. Mister Domc,
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host of the Project Prospect podcast and NFL draft analysts for Greenbeam Jets fan
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dot com. Thank you for being here, Thank you for joining me.
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Like I told you offline, I was expected to have you on because you
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actually know ball. You know the scheme pieces, you know the structural pieces.
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You're in the scouting academy, so you know how to put things together
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and break it down. So I'm excited to add your expertise on the show
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from the Jet side of things and really be able to dive into the schematics
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of a game that it's only week one but could potentially meet a lot for
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both of these teams. Boom and Yes, And first off, thank you
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for having me. You know I have had you as a guest on my
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podcast and as I told everyone, man, one of my favorite episodes that
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I've ever done. Kudos. I don't know how I can, you know,
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live up to that intro that you gave me there. That was top
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notch. Dude. I appreciate it, but yeah, you deserve it.
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Well. I'm glad to be here. I'm grateful that football's back, and
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I'm looking forward to I'm looking forward to the season. I'm looking forward to
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this game. I'm looking forward to everything about it. Man, Before we
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dive into the crux of the episode and the meat of it from your perspective,
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again, I kind of mentioned it a little in the intro. Aaron
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Rodgers comes to town. You've got year two of Garrett Wilson. You've got
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year two of Breesaw. Even though I got banged up in year one,
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but looked like, I don't want to say probably, but very easily could
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have been the offensive Rookie of the Year last year, and then ironically he
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goes down and Garrett Wilson wins it instead. Mackay Beckton is returning. You've
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got the juice on the defense, one of, if not arguably the best
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defense in the NFL. You're on hard knocks this year, all these things
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surrounding the New York Jets. What does it feel like going into this season?
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You and I were talking a little bit offline how cruel the media has
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been over the past years and years, but it's kind of somewhat has been
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justified given the lackluster team that the Jets have put out regularly. But this
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year feels a lot different. What what do you got from the Jet side
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of things head into this season? Well, I think you hit that now
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on the head. Let's let's you know, full transparency and let's call us
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spade a spade. You know, it's been a pretty rough go over the
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past few years. I mean, it's listen, you're born, you're you're
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you're a fan of whatever the team you're a fan of, you know what
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I mean. And I just happened to be born into a Jets family and
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that's just that's just what it is, you know what I mean. So
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it's been good, it's been good, and it's been bad. But I
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can honestly say that this team, this this feeling and and I'm gonna I'm
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gonna temper temper what I'm gonna say, But this feels different. Maybe it's
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because it's been so bad for so long that I actually feel like going into
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the season, like one to fifty three, this is probably the best team
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that we've had on paper, probably since twenty and twelve, you know what
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I mean, twenty thirteen. Maybe you know all the hooplah around, you
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know, the media and and and Aaron Rodgers and all that stuff. Yeah,
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I can do without some of that stuff. But as a team that's
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constituted being built, in my opinion, exactly how I've always wanted to see
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built, good organically grown talent in in you know, there in the young
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kids and the rookies. Now listen, you know, Aaron Rodgers brings you
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know, something that we've lacked for the past quite a few years, and
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that's and that's respectability and someone who can really move the needle on the offensive
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side at the quarterback position. It's it's just hard to win in this league
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without a quarterback, right And unfortunately, this wasn't truly the you know the
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plan, you know the plan. It didn't strike out on the number two
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overall pick. But but it happens, and you pivot and and I think
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that at least as it's portrayed to us, everything seems to be going just
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swimmingly. You know, there's there's a hype around the team here in Jersey.
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You know, I'm I'm I'm kind of tuned in. I'm always you
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know, I've been I went to a lot of practices. I'm tuned in
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very much. And it's not just the hype of what you see on hard
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knocks and all that stuff. Like there's a vibe and there's a buzz that's
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going around the Jets now. You know, again, I try to keep
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it tempered because I'm not willing to you know, I'm not willing to risk
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anything in the sense of football is a long season and you know, there's
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a lot that goes into it, and I'm not ready to crown myself the
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top of anything right now. But I have as good of a feeling going
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into this season as I've had a long long time. So if anything,
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for all your Buffalo fans, you know, feel good for US Jets for
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one. Feel good for US Jets fans for one. Yet, you know,
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I don't know how much sympathy you're going to get from Bill's fans.
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Respect you're throwing it out there. You know. It's funny too. If
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you had said, like a couple of years ago, like that the quarterback
7:39
play would be a storyline heading into the twenty twenty three season from a possible
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perspective, you would have been like, oh, that means like Zach Wilson
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hit awesome, like going into like year three, and it's so funny to
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see the resources invested into him or resource and just how it didn't pan out.
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But you're sometimes and I don't want to say like luck into it,
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but sometimes things the line and it's like, oh, well, there's you
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know, a proven veteran who's available, Like let's go out and do that
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and kind of course correct for what happened. So it's funny how things yeah
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aligne and kind of connect now you guys, I mean maybe the situation is
8:13
different. Forgive me because I don't remember exactly year. I mean, I
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know when you guys use the fifteenth overall pick on EJ Manuel and that one
8:20
didn't work out, But I don't know how long of you know, how
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long of a transition it was to get from the EJ from the manual days
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out and to your point, like you know, that quick pivot or transition
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to someone who's can can lead and run this team as Aaron Rodgers is even
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the thirty eight thirty nine year old Aaron Rodgers what he is, I mean,
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it's remarkably better than anything that we've seen over the past five six years.
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Oh my god. Yeah, I would have killed for like if a
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Rodgers was available or even like at that point too, especially during the drought,
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like if a Derek Carr got was available on the market, like,
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oh my God, like give me that, especially with the inept that the
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Bills had just drafting a quarterback and all the from lost men to Trent Edwards
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to EJ. Manuel to all these guys who were like, oh this could
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be a person and just never never worked, never worked, never worked,
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and oh this is funny from Mark saying, you know, laugh out loud,
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I have an EJ. Jersey I could. I'm a Miami Hurricanes guy.
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From a college standpoint, I didn't like EJ at Florida State and I
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didn't like him as a prospect, and then when the Bills drafted him,
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I was just like, oh, this is even worse, and I would
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have preferred Gino. But then Gino even like I'm so happy for Gino Smith,
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like the career Sujegrey that he had just like not working out and then
9:33
just having a hell of a year last year. Now what he's kind of
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turned in two for the Seahawks. It's funny, man. Sometimes it just
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takes the right situation or the right surrounding circumstances and prospect I mean, you
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know, it's a guy who evaluates like the college game, Like, there's
9:46
such a fine line in prospect evaluation. It's not an exact science. It's
9:50
a rap shooting a lot of ways, and sometimes dudes hit, sometimes they
9:54
don't. Sometimes they look mediocre for years and then all of a sudden turning
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around because of a new environment or a new culture. There's someone or something
10:01
that just gets that light ball to turn on a little bitter, just gets
10:05
that something to click. So yeah, it's very interesting piece. I wanted
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to also pull up this comment. You're getting some respect for the Wesley Walker
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jersey on the wall behind you. Yeah, respect to a legally blind speed
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burner receiver for the Jets back in the day. I like that shout out.
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Yeah he was. I was a young guy when when Wesley was you
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know, kind of running around the streets of New York or New Jersey,
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as your fans would say, because it's the truth now, but yeah,
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it's hard not to respect some of the you know, the grizzled vets that
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that kind of carved the path. And Wessell Walker was he was this one
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sentimental to me because he was he was like my dad's favorite player, and
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uh yeah, so that's why I got the I got the signature. I
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gave it to him and he didn't want to he gave it back to me.
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So that's how the Wesley Walker jersey ended up on the back. That's
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a good shout out. I was like when people like in the chat recognize
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like some piece of something that's in someone's background and appreciate it. So that
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was awesome, man, shout out out. All right, Dom can do
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it? Change the banner. So again, for those who don't know,
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Dom and I are diving into the matchups that will decide Bills versus Jets in
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week one. Now, it could be as wide scale or as small scaling
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granular as either of us want. It could be one player versus another.
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It could be one player by itself. It could be an entire side of
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the ball. It could be a position, group of schematic piece. Anything
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and everything is available and on the table. Whatever we think are each of
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us. We're going to give our top three, whatever we think are the
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top three matchups that will decide this game. I don't know Dom's Dom doesn't
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know mind. We might have the exact same list, completely different, we
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have the opposite, right, Yeah, it could be we have no idea.
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For those of you playing at home and joining us here in the live
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chat as we go through, feel free, as we always do here on
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the show. Love the engagement piece, what do you think of our matchups?
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What are your thoughts on it? And then for those again playing at
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home and in the live chat, throw up your answers into the chat.
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I'll mark as many of them as I can, and then when Dom graciously
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exits later, will do a lot of questions and pieces from the live chat,
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as we do here on a show before we get into it. For
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those of you riding with this live here or if you're watching post live and
12:03
you're at this point of the episode, please please, please and thank you
12:05
drop a like on this video. Likes are the lifeblood these live streams.
12:11
They sincerely or not sincerely, they legitimately affect the algorithm then put us,
12:16
you know, more forward into more eyes and ears on the front pages.
12:18
So we sincerely appreciate any and every ounce of support. Likes go a long
12:22
way. So if you are enjoying this episode and enjoying this content, please
12:24
and thank you drop a like on this video. Dumb, you are the
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guests the floor is yours. We're gonna go from I don't know if you
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have them ranked, like which one is the most important, second most important,
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third, But if you do have that, we'll start with your third
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most important. But if they're all equal, feel free mine what's kind of
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like equal, because I'm horrible at ranking things and trying to decide. I
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listen, I'll start with what I think is the number three. Okay,
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and this is an actual player. So I have two scheme or situational things,
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and then one player who I think is really could be a difference piece
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for this year and this matchup in particular. And guy that's flying under the
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radar that maybe a lot of guys outside of New Jersey aren't familiar with,
13:13
And that's our new starting free safety, Tony Adams. Oh, okay,
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Tony Adams. Not again, not a lot of people know who he is.
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He was an undrafted free agent last year. He was a guy who's
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actually you know, arguably took the spot of Jason Pinnock, who was a
13:28
fan favorite for the Jets. Six round draft pick. Pinnock, with the
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six round draft pick out of Pittsburgh, came in its cornerback transition to his
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safety now got the starting safety job as the Giants, Tony Adams took his
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spot. Tony Adams again comes from what would I like to refer as DBU.
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He's an Illinois University of Illinois alumni. They just put out, you
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know, real high level NFL prospects year after year and and Tony Adams has
13:54
kind of worked his way up. I think arguably he's significantly it's the most
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significant change in this defense. Now. Again, I am a big fan
14:07
of our defense. Uh, you know that they're they're good. They're a
14:09
good unit. I think replacing the thirty first rank starter in the NFL last
14:18
year, or LaMarcus Joyner, who was definitely the lynchpin to some of the
14:22
problems that we had. The safety room had a lot of questions. The
14:26
safety room has a lot of questions. It was played really bad last year.
14:30
You know, you had, excuse me, you had Jordan Whitehead who
14:33
would battle an ankle injury and kind of was a little bit of a shell
14:37
of himself from you know, from from his best days back in Tampa Bay.
14:41
He struggled. We're hoping for a back bounce back from him. Obviously,
14:45
the you know we signed or traded for Chuck Clark this year. He
14:48
was going to come in and play a significant part, probably that third safety,
14:52
big nickel, kind of hybrid role, short tackler. Lost him to
14:56
an ACL in the offseason. You know, we we we've resigned. We've
15:00
signed, as kind of a counter move to that, we signed Adrian Amos,
15:03
who probably will play that along the same lines. But of what Chuck
15:07
Clark was going to do. But Chuck Clark, I mean Adrian Amos and
15:11
Jordan wedde Head both are historically better upfront box safeties. What Tony Adams is
15:16
going to allow the Jets to do this year is he's got that. You
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know, he's got that speed, he's he's got the smarts, he's got
15:22
the range of of a true free safety. They played a lot, they
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played a lot of two deep shells last year because they just didn't have anybody
15:31
to kind of with the range or with the with the know how to kind
15:37
of handle the one deep the center field spot. We got beat left and
15:43
right by those flood concepts, those sales concepts anything, those those true cover
15:48
two beaters. Now, I think with the range e Adams there, who's
15:54
who's a shore tackler, shover chacklers Chuck Clark was going to be for this
15:58
year, plus you know, ball skills and and like I said again,
16:03
hate to use to keep using the same word range. I think you're gonna
16:06
I think you're gonna see a lot more single high looks, which is going
16:08
to allow us to fortify the box a little bit more, play, a
16:11
little bit more big nickel, you know, bring guys out and and kind
16:15
of help against the run without sacrificing you know what we do, listen to
16:21
the outside corners or or they do what they do. You know, I
16:25
don't think you know, we don't have to talk a lot about Sauce and
16:27
DJ Reid there you know, arguably top five within the league. You know,
16:33
pair of cornerbacks. Absolutely with pair of cornerbacks in the league. I
16:37
think we're gonna see we're gonna get into a lot more cover three this year,
16:44
a lot more cover three. That would be a big, like departure
16:47
like the Jets led the league in quarters slash cover four. I know,
16:49
yeah, absolutely too high based, No, absolutely, And and it just
16:55
like I said that defense because he had to because he didn't have La Marcus
16:59
Joinner that could play that could play the deeper soon on and so forth.
17:02
So I think you're gonna see a lot more Cover three. I think you're
17:03
gonna even see a lot more situations well, you know, and I was
17:07
surprised when I looked at the numbers. They ran a lot more man in
17:11
later downs in the in the second and third downs than than I expected.
17:15
But I think you're gonna even see a lot more of that. We're also
17:18
blitz the least amount out of any team in the NFL team percent blitz rate
17:22
last year. If we get home before we don't really need it, but
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it gives you that option, right, And that's going to lead into my
17:30
next one when we talk about it, is we'll get to that. I
17:33
think Cony Adams is a guy that really really kind of seals what we want
17:40
on this defense. You know, listen, it's not it's not perfect.
17:42
It's a work in progress. The defensive line is gonna get at you one
17:48
way or another. First, you know, first line, second line,
17:49
they're they're gonna get at you. The outside cornerbacks are gonna do what they're
17:52
gonna do. And and CJ. Middle at CJ. Mosley in the middle
17:56
is still CJ. Mosley, and he's going to produce. You know,
18:02
if you can pick up and pick up the pieces and raise the floor of
18:06
the of the of the defense that was so off last year. And that's
18:10
really that really came in the safety play and some of your off ball line
18:14
back and I think I think the defense can take that next step to borderline,
18:19
you know, one of the one of the best defenses in the league.
18:22
That's such an interesting like thought of like this defense raising its game and
18:27
taking it to another level. Concerned they were legitimately one of the best defense
18:30
in the NFL across any and every metric pretty much that you look at,
18:33
and then when you look at the tape, and then also even considering too
18:36
how much the offense really held the defense and the team overall back with just
18:41
the quarterbacks inconsistency you got at the quarterback position. And so thinking like that
18:45
the defense could potentially be more versatile or better is a scary thought. And
18:49
I really love that piece from you. And I have a bunch of the
18:52
Jets coverage metrics from last year, and yeah, they were twenty eighth in
18:56
single high you know, middle of the field closed, they were twenty eighth
19:00
in those looks last year, but they were six in those middle of the
19:03
field open two high safety looks last year, and they were so good with
19:07
quarters and then I mean which also helps too, Like when you have the
19:08
ability to match with the corners that they have on the outside, you can
19:12
play those quarters looks. And I started making notes as you were speaking about
19:17
Tony Adams, and like as I was writing questions down, you consinue you
19:21
continue to answer them as you kept going, So I don't have any like
19:23
like feedback. I just think that like my follow up thought with it is,
19:27
Yeah, like I wonder how much more coverage diverse this team can get
19:33
and if they can get that because you have a free safety or any kind
19:37
of safety that allows you to play in that post. I mean, it's
19:41
one of the reasons the Bills can be so coverage, first of all,
19:42
because you can hide has more range than employer, but they're both strong in
19:48
that perspective, so you can run your cover ones or your cover threes and
19:51
know that when you have that post safety, they can get there. And
19:55
if you can't you're so limited, or if you only have one safety that
19:57
can do it, then you can kind get a little more predictable because offenses
20:02
know, like, well, that guy doesn't have the juice, so they're
20:03
not going to drop him into the middle, and if they do, we
20:06
can attack it because he doesn't have the range. So knowing that the Jets
20:08
have a guy back there is very interesting. And I also love that point
20:12
too, because no one like, who's going to come in and think that?
20:15
Knowing that this defense, it's like, oh, no, is it?
20:18
Is it? What does year two Jermaine Johnson look like? Or what
20:22
does rookie Will McDonald look like? Does Mosley stay on top? What does
20:25
Sauce look like? The corner tandem? Like, I think that's a really
20:27
interesting piece because a true safety with true range from the post opens up so
20:34
much for you. And if you're opening that up on top of already,
20:37
like they played a lot of those two high looks, but they were very
20:41
good at them, so it's like, even if they wanted to run that
20:42
back, I'd be like, Okay, that's still a problem. But if
20:45
they become more coverage diverse, man, that's a really potentially scary thing.
20:49
Yeah, And and and to boot to your point about the abysmal quarterback play
20:55
that last year. I think, you know, having it again transition a
21:00
little bit, but having the quarterback that where you're gonna give this defense a
21:03
chance to play with lead and really let the defensive line do what they do.
21:08
It's going to give you the opportunities to be more diverse on the back
21:12
ends with coverage so on and so forth, because if you keep getting home
21:15
with four and listen, it's the NFL, and and you know, things
21:18
change, you know, with the flip of a coin on on a day.
21:22
So I'm not gonna sit here and say we're gonna get home for with
21:26
for every single time. That's not the case. But you know, I
21:30
like our chances, you know, like like they they just you know,
21:33
this is exactly what Robert Sala defense needs to do, right He wants he
21:38
wants you to cause havoc up front with those four and just let him pick
21:42
and choose and and you know, and be scheme specific and switch up the
21:48
switch up the sides, and switch up the coverages and and get the quarterbacks
21:52
confusing all off. So you know, I'm looking forward to it. Tony
21:56
Adams again, just a player, just one guy on a team on the
22:00
defensive eleven. He's probably just he's just I wanted to make sure I talked
22:04
about him because a the Jets think extremely highly of him, you know,
22:10
you know a lot of and I'm sure the Bills do it too. Most
22:12
you know a lot of guys get the veteran treatment and you know they don't
22:15
have to do you know, they go through practice and go through camp.
22:18
But you know, the first two games and all the veterans are sitting down.
22:21
Tony Adams got that. You know, Tony Adams came in and he
22:23
didn't start until the Seattle game. So it was that week fourteen last year.
22:27
You know, he came in and started to play and right from the
22:30
get go, I mean he got that. You know, he got that
22:33
start of treatment. So the Jets stake. The Jets think very highly of
22:37
him. And he's a phenomenal athlete. You know, slot corner from from
22:41
Illinois that has just transitioned and and really really good shore shore secure tackler,
22:48
great angles, you know, so he affects the run game again, I
22:53
can play that center field, play the post with no problems. You know,
22:57
ball, you know, attacks the ball just a kid. I'm really
23:02
really flying under the radar on this defense. He doesn't have the name of
23:04
Jermaine Johnson, doesn't have the name Quinnell Williams or Carl Lawson. But he's
23:08
a he's a He's going to be a big, significant kind of change to
23:15
this defense though, absolutely, And that's that's a really good point that you
23:18
put out with like the preseason piece, like you can no disrespect to the
23:22
guys who play, but you know who this like the coach is truly value
23:26
by based on the guys that they don't want to even put out their risk
23:30
in any way, shape or form. So he's getting that starter treatment here
23:33
where he's just sitting on the sidelines in his jersey come preseason time. You
23:37
know, that's a guy that the coaches are like, no, we know
23:38
what we got, Let's keep him on the shelf. We don't need that
23:41
piece. Absolutely, Like I'm torn with again, I'm gonna I'm giving all
23:48
of my matchup pieces equally because I don't know which is the most important,
23:51
and I flip flop all the time as I rank stuff as I go through.
23:53
But I'm gonna start just because we ended your analysis talking about some of
23:57
that front four piece, I'm gonna start with that front four Pets and the
24:02
Jets. The Jets defensive line. I've seen a lot of comments, especially
24:04
from like the Bills fan base in the off season about how like the Jets
24:07
defensive line from an individual standpoint, like doesn't have stars aside from Quinn and
24:12
Williams, and it's maybe not necessarily as good as it gets hyped up to
24:15
be, and so on and so forth. What I like about the Jets
24:18
defensive line is well, one you have it's anchored by Quinn Williams, who
24:22
is an All Pro caliber caliber player. But then everybody else, however you
24:26
want to rank them, everybody else is like you have an entire defensive line
24:30
that's like the worst player is like slightly above average, but you have an
24:34
entire group that is all like B to A plus type of guys, because
24:40
I think Quinn Williams is an A plus And when you can just rotate those
24:42
guys and have those guys be fresh, it's such a problem and it caused
24:48
problems for the Bills last year in both of their meetings and just taking a
24:52
look at some pieces. So the Jets had three pass rushers inside the top
24:55
thirty for pass rush productivity last year, A formula that combines sacks, hit,
25:00
and hurry's relative to how many times they rushed the passer. Josh Uch
25:03
for the Patriots was first in that metric. Bryce Huff was second in the
25:08
entire league last year for edge play and interior defensive line play, quinnin Williams
25:14
was tied for twenty fifth. John Franklmeiers were thirty. If those are the
25:17
three inside there, and that's not even mentioning Carl Lawson looking good coming back
25:21
from that injury, he should in theory be even better and more explosive this
25:23
year. Another year removed. Jets were seventh in total team sacks in twenty
25:27
twenty two. And you mentioned that front four piece. They're not a blitz
25:33
team. Last year eighty four percent four man rush rate, that was first
25:37
in the entire NFL. They're not rushing three. They're barely blitzing. They
25:41
are a four man rush team, which is part of what helps them succeed
25:45
in coverage because they usually have numbers in coverage. If you're rushing four,
25:48
that means you're dropping seven and at most, if an offense goes full spread,
25:52
you got five offensive linemen and the quarterback, that's six eleven minus six
25:57
is five. That means the most you can send out into the route distribution
26:00
for an offense is five. Seven beats five majority of the time. But
26:03
then if your front four is humming like the Jets front four does, do
26:07
you have to leave in or running back to block. You have to have
26:11
a tight end chip and then he's really not doing anything but getting into the
26:14
flat. Then it becomes like a seven versus four, maybe even a seven
26:18
verses last like seven versus three type of piece. The numbers getting even more
26:21
significant. So again that four man rush piece really huge for them. And
26:26
looking at the Bills, the Bills invested in their offensive line this offseason.
26:30
They brought in Connor McGovern, who I really liked. I thought he would
26:33
stabilize the depth of the pocket with his anchor ability. Really good athlete.
26:37
He's banged up, don't know if he's going to play. They also brought
26:40
in David Edwards. David Edwards, former starter for the Rams, who was
26:42
a really quality backup. Honestly could start for a bunch of teams in the
26:47
league. I love that depth he provides. If he starts at left guard,
26:51
it's still no disrespect and upgrade versus Roger Saffold last year for what he
26:55
was for the Bills. But you're either going to have McGovern or Edwards at
26:59
left guard, so you got a new starter there, and then at right
27:00
guard looks like you're going to have a new starter in rookie o Cyrus Torrance.
27:06
So that's the second round pick there. You've got two free agent additions
27:08
at the guard spot there. From a high level play that reinforced offensive line,
27:12
how does it handle? I'm still I still have that image. Granted
27:15
it was a backup in David Questenberry, but I still have that image of
27:18
Bryce hot burning around the arc and catch an Allan on the elbow. That
27:22
leads to that UCL tear causing problems a little bit as the season went on,
27:26
and when you've got guys again, you've got Huff and you've got lost
27:30
In, You've got Williams, and you've got JFM and then yeah, like
27:34
what do you get from Jermaine Johnson in year two? Like will McDonald has
27:38
a lot of athleticism in length and some fun moves that he's been busting out
27:41
in the preseason, Like you really can just let him be a rusher and
27:45
pass rush downs and not have to worry about if his size is going to
27:48
be a vulnerability versus the run, because with the rest of the rotation you
27:52
can just send him out and head hunt on passing downs. How does that
27:56
solid Jets defensive line rotation work out against reinforced and addressed Bill's offensive line,
28:02
because last year it had a significant impact on Josh Allen. So Josh Allen
28:08
last year, in the first matchup against the Jets, he was pressured thirteen
28:11
times and sacked five times. That's a pressure to sack ratio or percentage of
28:17
thirty eight point five percent. In the second matchup against the Jets, Allen
28:22
was pressured ten times. He was sacked three times, for a pressure to
28:25
sack percentage of thirty So the first game pressure to sack percentage thirty eight point
28:29
five the second thirty percent. Allen's pressure to sack ratio or percentage on the
28:34
year, including those games. Holistically, he had the ninth lowest out of
28:38
forty qualifying quarterbacks at fourteen point seven percent, so his yearly ratio was fourteen
28:44
point seven percent more than doubled significantly. Both games against the Jets. Not
28:49
only did they generate pressure, they got home on Josh Allen. I think
28:53
part of it two is they're able to generate pressure up they got with Quinn
28:56
and Williams. But then they have athletes off the edge, like the guys
28:59
who are getting in. They're not stiff and they're not, you know,
29:02
clunky. If Hoff gets in, he's an athlete, he's fluid, He's
29:04
got some Then same thing with Carl Lawson. Jermin Johnson has length and he's
29:07
got that explosive ability like JFM had that length. Like when they get through,
29:11
they have the ability to get home. So from a pass rush standpoint,
29:17
I'm very interested to see how the front's goal against each other. But
29:19
then also from a run standpoint, I think the Bills. The Bills were
29:22
a very good run team down the stretch. Last year was one of my
29:25
biggest complaints that they didn't run more, especially with the Alan elbow injury and
29:29
especially with the weather against Cincinnati in the divisional round. But this Bill's run
29:33
game, especially with James Cook, started to really click at the end of
29:36
the year in twenty twenty two, and especially against light boxes and Week nine
29:41
last year. So the Jets played the Bills in Week nine in Week fourteen.
29:42
Week nine, the Jets played the Bills with a light box fifty nine
29:45
percent of the time and then Week fourteen sixty five percent of the time.
29:51
I want to see how that Bill's offensive line does from a run game standpoint,
29:53
if the Jets want to come out with those light boxes or maybe not,
29:57
if they're playing more single high looks and then walk and a safety down
30:00
because they're confident with what Tony Adams can do. What does that chess match
30:03
look like? Because my big thing this year has been teams are gonna want
30:07
to play the Bills with two high shells and probably two high coverages. But
30:11
the Bills can run them out of those looks with their downhill run game that
30:14
they now have with Osyrus Torrents and Cook and what they can do. But
30:17
maybe the Jets don't want to live in that world anymore. And so how
30:19
does that chess match balance out from a run perspective is what's also in my
30:22
head. So the big picture matchup piece for me is the Jets d line
30:26
against the Bills offensive line and then all those tangents that that really, you
30:32
know, kind of generate from there. Because I think if we're looking at
30:34
the tape last year and the metrics it was advantage Jets defensive line against the
30:38
Bills offensive line. Yeah, no, I agree just about everything that you
30:45
said, just about everything that you said, And I'm gonna say this,
30:51
I think that the Bill's offensive line has gotten remarkably better. Yes, you
30:56
know, I agree Connor. You know Connor Mitch, you know the solid
31:02
Connor left guard. I didn't know he was hurt. You know, I
31:04
didn't know that it was a possibility to just miss the game. Osius Torrence,
31:08
I mean, it's that guy is just a mallard. Now, I
31:11
will say this about Osiris torts and that's going to tie into kind of my
31:15
next point where I was gonna jump into, but where I also have the
31:22
Jets pass rush against the right side of the Buffalo. So that's Spencer Brown
31:29
and Osiris Torrens, so tying into that, like because now my biggest question
31:32
for Osiris Torrance is what does he look like against true NFL speed rushers or
31:37
going to try and beat him on his right shoulder? And when you can
31:38
take what the Jets rotation has, they can kick anybody inside and really threaten
31:44
him with that speed. I stayed away from Spencer I've just beaten the Spencer
31:48
Brown horse a million times one, like just horrible metrics last year from a
31:53
pressure standpoint, from whether it's efficiency wise or total volume. And then his
31:59
mercurial roller coaster play. So yeah, you are absolutely spot on kitchen well,
32:04
and it's funny you tied into that and Spencer Brown before you get into
32:07
that, and and and listen, I'm gonna say this to you and to
32:09
all your who are watching this and whatnot, Like I'm at I'm not that
32:15
Jets fan who's who's saying f the you know, the builds I got.
32:17
I got nothing but respect. You guys are you know if we want to
32:22
we you guys are still the ones that we have to beat to get into,
32:24
you know, to get that title. You know you you're we're chasing
32:28
you guys. So I got nothing, So weird to hear like, I'm
32:30
just so the drought is so ingrained to me, And to hear someone be
32:34
like, yeah, the Bills are the team to beat, I'm just like
32:36
where am I Like? It still just hits me weird. So and and
32:39
I got nothing but like, I got nothing for props for the you know,
32:44
for what McDermott and and the whole front office has done in the team.
32:47
Now, I thought it was interesting Spencer Brown's going into what year four
32:52
three? Okay, Spencer, you know, Spencer Brown is what he is,
32:58
you know, and and you're not gonna have all rose at every at
33:00
all twenty two starting roles. I get that. But for me, it
33:04
seems like I'm gonna compare Spencer Brown to Boogie Basham. Oh god, I
33:08
hate I So just like Boogie Basham as a prospect, that's well, you
33:14
know, like they came in right around the same time. Maybe Boogie was
33:15
a year earlier, if from unmistaken or if not the same year, but
33:20
it seems that they were very quick to cut bait with Boogie. Right,
33:24
Oh yeah, I think they were the same year. Sorry, continue,
33:27
Yeah, they're the same year. But you know, they cut bait with
33:29
Boogie, and you know, like the game is option, the game is
33:31
opportunity, game is opportunity, game is opportunity. And then they finally said,
33:35
okay, you know what, we're gonna move on. We're deep at
33:37
the defensive line that you know, we're gonna trade them over to the Giants
33:38
and so forth. Now, is that the same pattern that you as a
33:45
fan, as an as an in depth fan, I think that's gonna happen
33:47
with Spencer Brown now that they signed oh my god, what's his face?
33:51
From Cincinnati? They got the tackle that they've just brought in. Yeah,
33:55
Now do you think that Spencer that jermainea Fetti coming in has Spencer Brown on
34:00
a little bit of short leash or you think he's going to be I would
34:05
like him to be on a short leash. They so they brought in Brandon
34:07
Shell from Miami last year, who was not good in past protection either.
34:12
His metrics felt roughly the same as Brown. His tape isn't great. He's
34:15
good against the run, though. I think they genuinely like Spencer Brown and
34:19
also too And I've given this caveat every single time, right, like the
34:22
whole Spencer Brown story. Played eight man football in high school, played at
34:28
university in Northern Iowa. Opted we didn't play during the COVID year, like
34:31
he was really learning how to play tackle in the NFL with every single rep.
34:36
Then he gets banged up last year in the offseason, didn't have a
34:38
ton of time on task at hers development, so on and so forth.
34:42
I think that ceiling is still somewhat attainable for him, and I think there's
34:45
the difference between him and Basham. I think Basham was supposed to be a
34:47
high floor, low ceiling kind of guy. Spencer Brown was the low floor,
34:52
high ceiling guy because of his athleticism and all the traits. And I
34:54
think that's part of the reason, in addition to not having the depth that
34:59
tackled that they do it at edge that they're still holding onto Brown. I
35:00
think you can potentially still kind of scratch that surface. But I think Brandon
35:05
Shell was going to be somewhat of the safety net. He retired out of
35:09
nowhere. They had to bring someone in. I like the idea of Affetti
35:14
being there. If Spencer Brown continues to be that roller coaster for me,
35:19
I I would have no problem if a Fetti came out and started like Week
35:22
one. I'm just I want to get off the Spencer Brown roller coaster.
35:27
I still think the ceiling can be there, but it's just far. When
35:30
he loses, he loses bad. You and I oh you and I talked
35:34
to when when I was on your show. We were talking prospects, and
35:36
I remember mentioning how much I like Darnel right. I want to builds.
35:38
Get Darnell right all right tackle and Darnell Wright has such a beautiful snatch trap.
35:43
Right. When you see a snatch trap, it's done by an offensive
35:45
lineman to a defensive lineman. I've seen Spencer Brown gets snatched trap by defensive
35:52
lineman and you don't see that like he Sometimes he'll just be so off balanced
35:55
and an edge will chop his wrists and he just flops and falseword when he
36:00
gets beat. He gets beat in like a quarter of a second to a
36:01
half a second, and it's bad. And so I think his upside is
36:05
far more significant and far higher than JERMAINEA. Fetti's is, especially given their
36:08
ages and where they are in their careers. But if Fettie just represents a
36:13
steadier floor, yeah, yeah, I think he should. I think he
36:15
should be on a short leash because of how mercurial his play has been.
36:20
But because the Bills didn't really address that position, and we talked about it,
36:23
right McGovern edwards Torrents. Look at all the reinforcement on the interior offensive
36:28
line at tackle. They ran the same group back, except they also brought
36:31
in Brandon Shell. They really didn't do anything, which to me signals that
36:35
they're comfortable and confident in Dawkins and Brown. So I would like him to
36:39
have a short leash. I don't necessarily think he does, though. I
36:42
think the coaching staff believes in him and it's going to give them. I
36:45
don't want to say his many opportunities, but a significant amount of reps to
36:49
finally prove whether or not he can actually do it. Yeah, And that
36:53
ties into my second point here. Second point is the Jets pass for US
36:59
first Spencer Brown and oh Sirens Torrents directly that the right side of your line
37:04
versus the left side of our line. So I wrote down some stats here.
37:07
Twenty twenty two, Brown allowed twenty nine hurries and forty two pressures.
37:13
It's great so far. In twenty twenty three preseason, Brown had thirty three
37:19
true pass sets, one hurry three pressures. Okay, yeah, Osius Torrents
37:24
in forty five true pass sets, three hurry three pressures. Okay. I
37:30
think that. And again from the from an outsider looking in and really just
37:35
analyzing the Buffalo Bills players to the level that I do not nearly as in
37:39
depth as you want, But I would say that Spencer Brown is much more
37:45
of a sure run blocker right now than he is he's a He's actually a
37:51
plus run blocker. Yeah, that's you really see the physicality in the athleticism
37:54
and him and Torrents together as run blockers. It's so pretty dangerous, dangerous
38:00
pass rush perspective, like you said, yeah, very much a question the
38:05
speed. The speed hurts both of those guys. And I think you you
38:09
hit it on the head with Torrents, like I said, a phenomenal,
38:13
phenomenal prospect. I think he's gonna play a long time in the league.
38:15
You know, there's a couple of things that when I was scouting him that
38:19
you know, I had questions. Now, he wasn't my favorite offensive lineman.
38:22
And again that's a disrespect him, no knock on him. I think
38:25
I had him like five or six along my interior line, which included which
38:29
included the centers, you know, so he was up there. But I
38:32
questioned how his lateral mobility was and and also he had he had this tendency
38:39
Florida fan. You're you're a Miami fan, I'm a Florida fan. I
38:43
watched I watched a lot of his college games and then really really dove into
38:45
his tape. He has this he kind of overly mechanical and kind of oversets
38:52
a little bit. You know again, you know in the past gives up
38:55
a lot against the inside. I'm just think a favorable matchup is the speed
39:02
and you know, the games that we can play upfront on that left side,
39:06
you're talking Quinn and Williams quit, Quinn and Jefferson who just who just
39:09
came in. Who's a you know, he's he's a true pass rush interior
39:15
guy. You have JFM, you have Jermaine Johnson, JFM can bump inside.
39:21
You have Jamine Johnson, you have Bryce huff coming who you know who
39:24
Who's get off is world class. At this point, you can put a
39:28
real good NASCAR package together and have speed at all four down linements. Yeah,
39:31
but for and and even with that, like exactly with with the get
39:35
off between him and McDonald on both sides, if you ever see it,
39:37
you know McDonald front line up from that wide nine. It's it's a scary
39:42
proposition. But I think if I'm going, if I'm looking at the Buffalo
39:45
offensive line with with with an honest you know, with an honest glare.
39:49
I think speed against that right side is where it can be advantageous to the
39:53
Jets. I expect to see a lot of overloads. I expect to see
39:57
a lot, a lot of game playing up there, some testament every as
40:00
much as you can. Yeah, yeah, I think that that's one spot
40:04
where I think, you know, if there's any thing that I would check
40:09
off as an advantage, it's it's that it's the pass rush on that side
40:14
of the that side of the line. Now again, you know last year,
40:19
you know, you talked about some of the struggles, you know,
40:22
if there was any struggles, you talked about some of the struggles that the
40:23
Bills had on the middle of their line. I think they fortified that a
40:27
lot, you know what I mean. I think at in the guards and
40:29
so on and so forth. Like Minnesota game Minnesota Buffalo last year was a
40:32
was a stupid good exam Yeah, a real good game, a real good
40:38
example of you know, that showed me right, you know, they said,
40:42
right then and there are we gotta fix the middle of this line,
40:44
right, we gotta we gotta fix the middle of this line. And they
40:47
did that. I'm curious to see how Osiris Torrence Who's who's as big of
40:52
a brute as you're gonna find in this in any of these rookies. I'm
40:57
curious to see how he's going to adjust to real high end pass Russian and
41:02
listen. And it's not just the Jets the end of all the AFC East
41:07
they face, they face a bunch of dogs this year. Yeah, you're
41:08
gonna get Michael Parsons and you're gonna you know, you're gonna get a z
41:12
Soldolari and Cavon Thibodeau at the Giants, and you know as well as you
41:15
know the dog fighting that we do within the division, the Jets rush and
41:20
the Bills rush, and the Paths and the Dolphins. Yeah, Miami bringing
41:22
Jalen Phillips and the Dolphins and so and so forth. So they're gonna get
41:25
tested. And all the offensive lines in the AFC East, Bills and Jets
41:30
included, are gonna get tested, and they're gonna get tested off them.
41:34
You know. I like that point a lot. And so you know what's
41:36
funny too, Like my I remember when I saw Torrents at the Senior Bowl
41:39
and just an absolute mountain of a man, and I'm standing behind him,
41:43
an individual and just I love I love watching trench work, like at the
41:47
Senior Bowl and like they're doing one on ones and pass Russians beautiful. And
41:51
I'm standing behind Torrents and Eric is next to me, and remember elbow and
41:54
Eric, because Torrence is like right in front of me, but his his
41:59
hands are down and I can see the inside of his glove and it says
42:00
four x out because his gloves. His hands are just massive and they're just
42:05
giant vice gript pause. And the one thing I will say, because my
42:07
biggest question for him coming in, I was like, Okay, he's big.
42:10
He's a bruiser, he's a mauler, like he said, he's a
42:14
people mover, this downhill presence, but he is big. He's not the
42:16
most laterally agile that he's not the guy you want in space. Even him
42:22
climbing to the second level, I found him a bit clunky at times.
42:24
The first day I saw him at training camp, he slimmed down significantly.
42:29
I would love to know what his weight is right now. And him slimming
42:32
down made me think whether he or probably the team. First thing was like,
42:37
hey, we love your play style. You got to be able to
42:39
move quicker at this level because your speed, you're going to get tested by
42:44
speed left and right from the past fresh perspective, and I think he was
42:46
brought in to your point, Torrence McGovern, David Edwards, guys who have
42:54
good anchors aside from ossireus Torrence's rep against Jalen Carter when he got dog walking
42:58
into the backfield. So forget about that a handcar rep because everybody gets dog
43:00
walked by Carter. But they made a significant effort in fortifying the depth of
43:06
the pocket because that's where Alan when he sees that pressure, and it doesn't
43:09
with any quarterback. You get that pressure from the interior, you're immediately trying
43:13
to bail. It affects your vision, it affects your confidence, and when
43:15
it happens consistently, it changes how you are back there. And Alan gets
43:19
a little skittish, not from a fear perspective, but from a screw this,
43:22
I'm going to try and make the play on my own and he's bailing
43:25
out of the pocket before he needs to and all that stuff. So Torrens
43:30
I think was a move in that direction, but there was that speed question.
43:31
So I'm very interested to see how much him like he looked. He
43:36
looked trim. He was still big, but he had slimmed down significantly.
43:38
So I'm interested to see, yeah, how he plays against just guys with
43:44
that speed, like because he looked good against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is more guys
43:47
who match with what he does, Guys who are just power and try to
43:51
go through you. You're not going through o Cyrus Torrens. Or you can
43:53
potentially get around him, or you can set him up to get around him
43:57
and like you said, cut back inside and take that inside shoulder. I'm
44:00
interested to see yet how that quickness that he may have now because he shed
44:05
some weight, how that holds up, and then yet testing him and Spencer
44:07
Brown in the preseason have been very good with their communication. Brown has been
44:12
calling out slot blitzes and calling out you know, overloads and you take this
44:16
guy. They've been passing off well when it comes to games. But it's
44:20
very different when you get a game in the preseason versus a two man game
44:23
in the regular season. It's that Jets front and you're their pinpoint attacking you
44:29
based on game plan. So I think that's very well said, and it
44:31
ties in a bit not to continue to beat that horse. But some more
44:37
Spencer Brown stats. There were eighty eight tackles that had at least twenty percent
44:42
of pass protection reps in twenty twenty two. Spencer Brown was tied for sixty
44:45
ninth out of those eighty eight tackles in pass block efficiency and in true pass
44:52
sets. There were two hundred and six total offensive linemen that had at least
44:55
twenty percent of past protection reps. Brown was one hundred and eighty in pass
45:00
block efficiency and true pass sets, and then seventieth amongst those eighty eight tackles
45:05
in true pass sets, and then amongst all offensive linemen tied for the eighth
45:08
most pressures allowed amongst all offensive lineman type for fifth amongst all tackles. So
45:15
yeah, not great no matter how you slice it. And for a defensive
45:17
line that may smell blood, it scares me a little bit. Yeah.
45:20
Well, and in fairness to to you and and your you know, your
45:25
listeners and your and whoever's watching this stream, the Jets have. You know,
45:31
it's funny the Jets and the Bills in this situation we're talking about,
45:36
you know, the Jets defensive line versus the Jets have just as many questions
45:38
as the offensive line all right, in the sense that in the sense that
45:44
you know, we haven't been healthy all preseason. There wasn't one preseason game
45:49
snap where all five of our starters played together. Now, the good thing
45:52
is they're getting healthy at the right time, right the way Brown came off
45:55
the pup and McKay Beckton has has transitioned so far in the preseason, uh,
46:02
swimmingly to the right side, and you know, the middle of the
46:07
line has stayed healthy. Again, I'm I'm a huge fan of Elijah very
46:13
Tuck or a right guard him. I think, I think he's so good.
46:16
The reality is is that two years and aroways in his third year and
46:20
he hasn't stayed healthy. You know, last year Tours tricep Uh the year
46:23
before, he missed four or five games with an ankle. So I'd like
46:27
to see him really live up to his potential and and and and take that
46:34
next level. You know, if all things come together, the Jets line
46:37
can be adequate. But the chances of that happening is, you know,
46:42
so something on I wish that our first game with all five offensive line playing
46:47
wasn't against the Bills. That's that's the that's the honest, you know,
46:52
honest to god truth. I mean, I mean, I know, not
46:53
having von Miller is definitely a plus, but that doesn't negate the fact that
46:59
there's still guys coming at you and Leonard Floyd and Greg Greg Rousseau with that
47:02
power, you know, and how we transfer out you know, how he
47:06
just gets at it and the guys in the middle and so and so forth.
47:08
Like there's there's still you know, the formidable task right then. And
47:14
there the Bills defense again. You know, we beat we beat the Bills
47:19
once last year, and I think you're missing both safeties. I don't think
47:23
Milano played the game game one, Yeah he didn't. Yeah it was Bernard
47:27
and Edmonds. Yeah, Milanna didn't play a game once. So you know,
47:30
I'm not you know, I know a lot of the you know,
47:34
a lot of the Jets fans will say, oh, yeah, you know,
47:36
Buffalo, they're washing and so forth. Well we faced him when you
47:38
didn't have two of the best starting, two of the best safeties in the
47:40
league. You didn't have Milano, and I don't know who else was missing,
47:44
if there was anybody else, but that defense is now whole, right
47:47
and we have an offensive line that still has not played one snap yet together
47:53
in a game this season. So I wish this game was Week seven as
47:59
supposed to Week one. I think would I think everything would kind of work
48:01
itself, work itself out. If there's going to be a kinks, that's
48:05
a that's that's the reality though, you know what I mean, it's ready
48:07
questions as you as you talked about with Spencer Brown, like the Jets have
48:12
that that that many questions and whatnot, Like Kai hasn't played football in two
48:15
years. Yeah, that's a huge play football in two years, you know.
48:20
So that so outside the end into I was debating which my points I'm
48:22
gonna I was gonna do next album. I'm gonna go right into that point
48:27
because it ties into it's super broad, this next piece. So it's a
48:30
broad matchup piece, but there's so many little ones put into it, just
48:36
from an unknown standpoint, the Bill's defense versus the Jets offense. We'll start
48:40
with the offensive line piece. Yeah, so McKay Beckton, you finally get
48:44
Mackay Beckton back, who in the past two seasons he's played a total of
48:47
forty eight snaps. All of those came in twenty twenty one. He hasn't
48:52
played since Week one of twenty twenty one. And your point, now he's
48:55
moved to right tackle. He's never seen a real, live bullet snap in
48:59
a regular season game at right tack on the NFL. But you finally get
49:01
him back after really not having him for two years, you get Elijah Vera
49:06
Tucker back, all things considered, if everyone is healthy on that line,
49:09
I like you said adequate. I would even say maybe a little above adequate.
49:13
I think Dwayne Brown, Laken Tomlinson a VT back then even I really
49:17
like Joe Titman is, but he's not gonna start correct. McGovern's gonna st
49:22
McGovern's gonna start. And I'm gonna say this, I think Joe Titman.
49:25
Listen, I love Joe Titman. I think the h the potential is there.
49:34
You know he's He's moves in space so well, ye especially for his
49:38
size so much to their size. There's two things about Titman that I watched
49:43
that I saw and you know you saw a little bit of a tape in
49:45
college, but more so as I watched in the preseason at camp a lot
49:50
A. This might sound minis school, but it's a big deal. He
49:54
has a big, big problem snapping the ball. Shotgun. In Wisconsin,
50:00
he had he had a quarterback under his, you know, under under him,
50:05
the majority of the traditional traditional ultchal offense exactly. So he struggled with
50:10
that. This awso interesting. Yeah, And on top of that, you
50:14
know, he's a big boy at six six, You know that it's you
50:16
know, unheard of for a center, and you know, I always assumed
50:22
that he was going to struggle against guys, you know, with the with
50:27
the leverage piece, and I think he's done a pretty good job. But
50:30
the one thing that I've seen kind of repetitious in camp this year, that
50:34
I saw in his college shape is that for a big guy, balance is
50:39
not always uh the greatest thing. Now, I don't know if it And
50:43
again this is just me thinking, I don't know if it's he's still getting
50:46
used to having to snap the ball and come out and you know, like
50:52
he's so worried about the snap that he's a step later or something like that.
50:55
But he's been on his he's off of his feet too much. He's
51:00
he's not maintaining the blocks and I'm talking the stuff that's you know in the
51:02
phone booth, kind of the drive block and stuff where I thought that he
51:07
would kind of come in and set the tone that way. He's been a
51:10
little bit off. On top of that. Comer Commercovern, who we brought
51:15
back, who was told when he was brought back, listen, we're gonna
51:17
draft the guy. You're gonna give you competition, and he's he's played great
51:22
now. Connor McGovern, you know, is the bane of some Jets fans
51:24
existence and I don't understand why he's kind of the ban of I just hate
51:29
that there's two Connor governments in the NFL, Like it's the stupidest thing,
51:31
Like what are the odds? And they both play in the AFCAS and they're
51:34
both on the offensive line. Yeah, so Connor McGovern is, he's a
51:38
prototype. He just knows he's a good zone block in center. You know,
51:43
he's gonna be middle of the road the whole time. You know,
51:45
the goal. The reality is is that you know, they're probably going with
51:49
the veteran right now to start, until Tittman can work out some of the
51:52
Kings City has. I'd say probably by mid season, late season. I
51:54
wouldn't be surprised if Tittman's you know in and you know takes takes the pivot
51:59
for the next ten years. But I digress. No, that's very fair,
52:01
and but they think that adds to the So my thought was able to
52:05
be mcgoverned. I love the insight on Tipman because I haven't. He was
52:07
dude who I like. I liked him, and I mean, I don't
52:09
think I'm unique to this. I liked him and John Michael Schmit's a lot.
52:14
Yeah. I also liked Luke Whippler, the center from Ohio status I
52:16
had I had. I had Whippler as my second rated center. I was
52:20
a JMS guy. Yeah, I like Whipper. I saw Schmid's at Senior
52:24
Bowl and was just enamored with him. He had a great week. But
52:28
yeah, so I love the insight on Tipman, and yeah, it ties
52:30
into that online piece like if healthy, I think the Jets line is adequate
52:36
to s maybe even slightly above, which again, if you've got a quarterback
52:39
who knows what he's doing, like Aaron Rodgers, that's fine, like I
52:43
think, and then if you have a running back who's an athlete, a
52:45
plus an athlete like Reesaw, we'll see what he looks like, I think
52:47
that works for them. But yeah, that old line against a Bill's defensive
52:52
line, which again seems we have this conversation year after year that kind of
52:55
got reinforced again. Leonard Floyd comes in a Japanessa took a bit jump last
53:00
year. They bring in Poona Ford. Tim Settle is healthy and looks good.
53:04
Him and Ford are both going to be behind Oliver and Dai Kuan Jones.
53:07
De Kuan Jones was a monster on the interior last year. His absence
53:10
really showed with that loss to Cincinnati. But you've got like a equality defensive
53:16
line rotation now for the Bills in a similar fashion to what the Jets have
53:21
upfront, where you don't really have necessary well, when von is healthy,
53:24
you have that premier star on the front, the way the Jets have with
53:28
Quinnan Williams. But I think the Bills at this point just have a really
53:31
good stable of a got bunch of guys who were bs and b pluses,
53:36
and it's like, cool, We're just going to rotate him in based on
53:37
the front and how fresh they are, and so I'm interesting to see,
53:40
yeah, how they attack that Jets offensive line. So that's one question piece
53:45
What does Breeze Hall look like in his return? He was such a to
53:50
see how much of a dual threat he was last year considering Garrett Wilson wasn't
53:55
truly Garrett Wilson early in the year because the quarterback play was kind of mad,
53:59
although he looked sick with Joe Flacca against the Browns. But Bruce Hall
54:02
was like the offense early on and teams just could not stop Bruese Hall.
54:07
What does he look like coming back a year removed from tearing that ACL again?
54:09
He toward in week seven? Usually you're not the same until the year
54:14
after your first year back, so which usually the year two. How healthy
54:17
is he? How explosive? How close can he get to that pre ACL
54:21
tear form? How much does Dalvin Cook get incorporated? That's a pretty sweet
54:24
back up, like a nice one two combo to ease you're returning, you
54:29
know, Stud running back from injury. If your number two is Dalvin Cook,
54:32
that's a nice piece you got. Garrett Wilson Offensive Rookie of the Year
54:37
last year. Stud he was my wide receiver one. The sharpness, the
54:40
suddenness, the decisiveness in his routes. I like it in a vacuum for
54:45
himself, but I think it pairs really well with Aaron Rodgers in his style.
54:49
And even though it was just you know, one game, that preseason
54:52
game against the Giants and the finale, Rogers sees the box count he checks
54:58
to Wilson on little fade, throws it right over the shoulder of the corner.
55:01
How many times have we seen that in Green Bay between him and Davante
55:05
ad where there's a run play call, then he just looks at Davante and
55:07
it's like one on one, there's like nine dudes in the box. I'm
55:09
going to you, boom, what does their kind of relationship at chemistry look
55:14
like? And that ties into the bigger piece of what does Aaron Rodgers look
55:17
like in New York? And I know he had a down year last year,
55:21
but in going to some of the metrics, so there were forty seven
55:23
qbs last year who had at least one hundred attempts, Rodgers was forty first
55:28
in total EPA, so forty first out of forty seven, which is obviously
55:31
awful, But he was nineteenth in positive play percentage from a passing perspective,
55:37
so the percentage of passes throne that results in positive EPA and he was tied
55:40
for seventeenth in ratings, so he was more middle of the pack than I
55:45
think he gets credit for. Now. Yes, that's a down year for
55:47
Aaron Rodgers being middle of the pack. It's a horrible year for Aaron Rodgers,
55:52
but one not maybe as bad as it seemed. Two. We talked
55:55
about this a little bit earlier. If you got MVP Aaron Rodgers, that
56:00
would obviously be amazing, But do you really need MVP Aaron Rodgers? Like
56:06
halfway decent Aaron Rodgers paired with the supporting cast and the defense, This team
56:13
last year almost made the playoffs with having arguably, from a statistical standpoint,
56:16
the worst quarterback situation in the entire NFL between Flatbow, Zach Wilson Mike White
56:22
flashed a little bit and he gets hurt. He had no consistency. There
56:25
no real sustainable effect in this. And because of how good that defense was
56:30
and how good Breece Hall was early on in all these pieces, you still
56:32
and then Garrett Wilson's evolution, you still almost made the playoffs. Now you've
56:37
upgraded and added weapons. The offensive line is healthy. I want to put
56:40
it in quote because I don't want to jink anyone. You've brought in Aaron
56:44
Rodgers, he doesn't. I don't think he like I keep hearing the knock
56:47
of like he's washed and he's not the MVP form who cares. If he's
56:51
like the thirteenth best quarterback, that's a huge, significant upgrade upgrade. It's
56:55
similar to I don't want to make it because it's not Apple with apples,
56:59
but the Bills bringing in Connor mcgovernor for Roger Saffel. Did that set the
57:02
world on fire? Did they all of a sudden bring in some all pro
57:06
left guard. No, but when you're going from a D to a B
57:08
minus or a B, that's a huge upgrade. And I think, and
57:14
I think that's what the Jets could have with Aaron Rodgers. So no,
57:15
I don't think he's going to be the Aaron Rodgers of old. But even
57:19
if he's just the fifteenth to twelve best quarterback in the league, that is
57:22
a huge significant upgrade for the Jets. And then you add in the supporting
57:27
cast on offense and the defense, it's a scarier type of team. And
57:31
in the other little variable of I know everybody thinks Nate Hackett is a joke.
57:35
But the last two times Rodgers worked with Hackett, Rodgers won the MVP
57:38
both times. And you know Hackett wants to make a statement because he's a
57:42
punchline for everybody. Rodgers is somewhat motivated. We think, like you mentioned
57:45
earlier in the episode, that all relationships seem good and Rodgers is happy.
57:50
Like. So there's that piece tied into this Jets offense, Bill's defense,
57:54
and then the last piece of it all the Bills defense. Sean McDermott hasn't
57:59
been at defensive coordinator in years since he left Carolina to come to Buffalo,
58:02
and now he's fully taken over this defense. How do they look schematically?
58:07
A Sean McDermott defense is different than Leslie Frasier defense. I know McDermott's fingerprints
58:10
have been on things with Frasier under him these last several years, but you
58:15
gotta imagine it's going to be much more aggressive than Leslie Fraser than his More
58:20
simulated pressure is more mug gaps, more man coverage, more disguised fronts,
58:24
more different fronts used, not just the same static four three overfront four three
58:30
overfront. I think that's part of what the attractiveness was for Poona Ford coming
58:34
in because he can align up multiple spots on your line. You can kick
58:37
Greg Russo in and do different things. So maybe a different philosophical or identity
58:42
tweak or shift under Sean McDermott. What does that look like in real game
58:45
action. We started to see semblances of it in training camp in preseason,
58:49
but now that the bullets are live, what does that look like? How
58:52
much do they have to correct for Tremaine Edmonds's absence. That's a huge piece.
58:55
They bring in Christian Kurtsey. I don't think he's going to start Week
58:59
one. O. Tyroll Dodson doesn't start Week one because he's a vulnerability and
59:02
liability and coverage. I would like it to be Terrell Bernard, but he's
59:05
been hurt all preseason, hasn't played one down of preseason football, and you
59:10
know, tying into your Tony Adams point earlier. The Bills love to rotate
59:15
in and out of every coverage. They'll show two high pre snap and spin
59:17
a safety down. They'll show single high and drop a safety back. They
59:21
can run anything and everything under the book, although they do love quarters,
59:23
cover two and Cover three, but If Tremaine Edmonds isn't there, you lose
59:28
a significant piece that the guy that was that vertical middle third, that dropper
59:31
in Tampa two, or even somebody in quarters who could wall off or carry
59:36
the two or three. The Bills do not have that on the roster.
59:38
Kurtsey can mitigate it a little. Maybe even Bernard Dodson comes nowhere close.
59:44
So how much more single high coverages do we see for this Bill's defense this
59:47
year trying to correct for the loss of Tremaine Edmonds. There's so many questions
59:52
from like a high arching overall just Bill's defense, Jets offense, but then
59:55
all these little layers. There's so many like mini battles that I'm really excited
1:00:00
to see at all up to like the big picture. There's so many.
1:00:04
Yeah, and it's a similar to what you were saying, Like the third
1:00:09
point that I was gonna make, I'm just gonna talk about a little bit
1:00:13
real quick because it ties into what you said. What you talked about,
1:00:16
I said, the winner, not the winner of this game, but I
1:00:20
think a big factor in this game is who wins the middle of the middle
1:00:23
of the field. Here. You know, you talk you talked about Bernard
1:00:25
and Dotson and you know the Jets, you know, with with Corey Davis's
1:00:31
sudden retirement. Yeah, with sudden Yeah, So the rumor has it,
1:00:37
and again I don't know, there's nothing that's come out formal, so I
1:00:39
don't want to speculate, but the insiders have said that. I don't know
1:00:45
if it's one of his kids or somebody close to him is dealing with something.
1:00:49
So I think he just yeah, I think he just said I was
1:00:51
fearful of that, and now I was, because when it comes out of
1:00:52
nowhere like that, it's usually on that sucks. Yeah, So we wish
1:00:57
him the best. But you know, listen, we went into this in
1:01:00
reality is that he was going to be our number two wide receiver. You
1:01:04
know, well, you scratch him off the list. There's no true number
1:01:08
two wide receiver, you know, and and I'd say that there's you know,
1:01:12
you might say that that's a bad thing, but historically, you know,
1:01:17
listen, if you have and I agree wholehearted with what you said about
1:01:22
Breeze, Hall, I don't think you're gonna see Breeze for more than ten
1:01:23
or twelve snaps, you know, ten or twelve touches I should say I
1:01:28
think they'll have him on how bad? I think, Yeah, it just
1:01:30
doesn't make sense to give him even though he's been cleared. I think it's
1:01:35
kind of it's going to be kind of a slow ramp up. So that
1:01:37
especially if you if you think similar to kind of von Miller, like if
1:01:40
you think you're gonna make noise in December, you want a healthy, good
1:01:44
go breeze all come November and December. You don't care if he's ready to
1:01:46
go one hundred miles an hour week one. Yeah. Now, I also
1:01:50
think that, you know, if if they were confident that Breeze was they
1:01:54
were ready to take the training wheels off week one, they wouldn't have spent
1:01:57
eight million dollars or seven point eight million dollars on Dalvin Cook, you know.
1:02:00
But you know so, so you have a you have two very very
1:02:06
good, versatile, dual purpose weapons. You know how much Aaron Rodgers loves
1:02:10
to throw to the to the running backs. So a lot of targets are
1:02:14
gonna go there, a lot of I think that Tyler Conklin's and a piece
1:02:19
of the offense that a lot of people are sleeping on, he's going to
1:02:22
get a lot of the targets and then the rest of them are going to
1:02:23
be dispersed. I think, you know you're gonna see, you know,
1:02:27
Garrett Wilson take the alpha number of targets on that offense in the air,
1:02:30
and then everything else is gonna be dispersed, just as you know as a
1:02:36
normal Aaron Rodgers led Nathaniel Hackett offense always does. That's it. You know,
1:02:43
they listen, They're gonna find the Cobb. Listen for for what he
1:02:45
is. You know, wide receiver five come into this old man. The
1:02:50
guy can still find the soft spot in his zone when when it counts on
1:02:52
third down. So that's all you're asking. But he's a guy there,
1:02:54
Rodgers trust, which goes a long way. Yeah. So, so I
1:02:58
think that middle of the defense is going to be an area that's attacked,
1:03:04
whether you know, whether it's the stick routes or the mesh concepts that kind
1:03:07
of force the Bill's middle linebackers to move or make decisions so and so forth.
1:03:14
Because if there's any weak point of that defense, I probably say the
1:03:19
unsettled middle linebacker is probably who you're gonna want to who you're going to want
1:03:23
attack, you know, and and counterpoint on the flip side. Our linebackers,
1:03:28
you know, even though we've only you know, listen, just like
1:03:30
most teams this year, we don't run a lot of three linebacker sets.
1:03:35
Our bases is a you know, is a you know, four to five,
1:03:38
but you know, call it what you will buffalo. Now Withal kincaide,
1:03:45
you can see a lot more twelve personnel, right, So what are
1:03:49
you gonna do? How are you gonna how are you gonna how are you
1:03:51
going to adjust to that? Do you bring on an extra linebacker which I'm
1:03:53
confident in our third linebacker and Jamie and Sherwood young kid, you know,
1:03:58
a big hitter, but the one if you can, if I can say
1:04:00
anything, you know that that kind of concerns me about our linebacking corps is
1:04:04
that they're just not there in coverage. Now, I'm not gonna ask I'm
1:04:10
not gonna ask him in sure what I'm not gonna ask C J. Mosley
1:04:12
to stick Dalton Kincaid man the man. You know, it's just not going
1:04:15
to be fair. So I'd like to see, like I think that battle
1:04:20
is going to go a lot. I'm assuming you guys are gonna run a
1:04:23
lot more twelve personnel, or at least that's that's what you know. Who
1:04:26
knows what happens come game day, But that's the case, you're gonna have
1:04:30
knocks and you're gonna have who who's a weapon in itself. You know,
1:04:32
maybe he's not your go to, but you know he can you know,
1:04:34
he can still do enough to effectuate the game. Kincaid is just like another
1:04:41
you know, another big wide receiver. And see now I'm interested to see,
1:04:45
like isn't just from the Jets, but it'll obviously be just for a
1:04:47
week one. Like, I'm very interested to see how defenses choose to defend
1:04:51
yeah, Bill's personnel package. Like do they just see Kincaid as a big
1:04:56
wide receiver and they're like cool or just staying nickel? Or is he functioning
1:05:00
as a blocker? And the run game is working to the point where defenses
1:05:02
have to say, we have to treat it like an actual twelve and we
1:05:06
have to bring in a third linebacker or a third safety to try and bridge
1:05:10
the athleticism, big hybrid gap type of thing. I'm very interested to see
1:05:14
how defenses choose to defend their twelve person Now, if I if I was
1:05:17
to guess. If I was to guess, I think that's how the Jets
1:05:21
would probably attack that They're going to probably have a third safety on board unless
1:05:27
it. Yeah, I mean, listen, you could bring in a Jamie
1:05:30
Sherwood or an extra linebacker, but I think the deficiencies of having both Jamie
1:05:38
Sherwood and Quincy Williams, who are really below standard as coverage linebackers, on
1:05:45
the field at the same time as probably does more harmon good. That's why
1:05:47
the loss of Chuck Clark means so much, because he was kind of coming
1:05:50
in to be that hybrid, you know, third line and essence third linebacker.
1:05:56
Yeah, I mean absolutely to be able to compare to come back those
1:05:58
twelve personnel packages and that, and that's I think if you can get the
1:06:01
Jets into that look, I think that's a win because I would much rather
1:06:05
have that coverage combination of Sherwood and Quincy Williams is so fun coming forward against
1:06:12
the run as like a heat seeking missiles and run fits. I mean,
1:06:15
he's as good as they get, yea. Yeah, and listen, he
1:06:17
misses a little too many tackles through for my life. Well, yeah,
1:06:19
because he plays like a heat seeking missile. He plays everything's down everything's downhill,
1:06:25
But absolutely a lot to be said about him pass coverage. Jamie Sherwood's
1:06:29
the same thing, except a much more shut tackler. But I'd take either
1:06:32
of them in coverage or both together. And especially if you're taking Michael Carter
1:06:36
off the field, like that's a nice little win. And if you can
1:06:39
force the Jets into that, look, I'm there, Like that's where that's
1:06:43
where this the whole schematic piece of the twelve personnel and like all like the
1:06:45
fully advantageous opportunities you have for it, that's really where it comes in.
1:06:49
Like this game is a and I've been talking about all offseason on this show,
1:06:54
this is like a per This game could be a perfect microcosm of what
1:06:57
that is. Like I think Michael Carter is a good slot corner. You
1:07:00
want him on the field if you're the Jets. You don't want sure Wood
1:07:02
on there in that capacity, like if you have to defend the pass and
1:07:06
the run. And this is like the this is the dilemma that twelve personel
1:07:10
package or the Bills can put teams into. Because now if you're the Jets
1:07:14
and if you're getting run on you have you can't just stay in that four
1:07:16
two five nickel. You have to address it. But then now all of
1:07:20
a sudden you're vulnerable to the past, especially maybe even more so for the
1:07:23
Jets because like we said, you got Quincy and sure what both of which
1:07:27
are not plus coverage guys. Yeah, yeah, and listen and the way
1:07:30
the Jets defense works. You know, the statistics are what they are,
1:07:36
but they're the middle of their the middle of the field. Those you know
1:07:41
that that hook route area in the middle of the field between the tackle box
1:07:45
is getting the most action because not a lot of people are testing just there.
1:07:47
They're not gonna test on the outside a lot of the times, you
1:07:50
know, so they're they're seeing it, and they're seeing it, and you
1:07:56
know, you'd like to see them step up in the game. But I
1:08:00
hear you loud and clear, like that's definitely a concern of mine. You
1:08:02
know, if they come in and you know they have to they adjust and
1:08:08
they bring a third linebacker on it, is it? How does that help
1:08:13
Josh Allen, you know, kind of be even better than he already is.
1:08:18
I mean, you you put a mismatch like like Quincy Williams on Dalton
1:08:23
Kincaid or ask him to do it too much. I mean it's game over.
1:08:26
Yeah, absolutely, And then I'm even thinking too, like with how
1:08:29
successful Alan and the Bills have been against single high coverages, Like if the
1:08:32
Jets do want to play more of that because they have Tony Adams there,
1:08:35
like, does that maybe potentially work against them because of how successful Josh has
1:08:40
been, especially if you're pairing that with a run game that's worked, and
1:08:44
now you're bringing into play action and you've got Kincaid and knocks that can threaten
1:08:47
the seams, or you're running these deep overs and just attack and cover three
1:08:50
or even cover one if they're in it, because you've got Sauce in DJ
1:08:54
on the outside and you feel comfortable running cover one. Like there's so many
1:08:58
schematic pieces in this game I think are are very exciting. And then that
1:09:01
ties into my last point really just overarching Josh Allen versus the Jets defense.
1:09:08
And some of this is tied to the front, but the Jets had a
1:09:11
really good game plan from a coverage standpoint. Both games last year caused Josh
1:09:15
to be in efficient. He had some poor decision making. Granted, the
1:09:19
numbers could be effected a little different, but from advanced metric standpoint, Josh's
1:09:24
numbers just were, especially in that first game, significantly different. So Josh
1:09:29
Allen twenty twenty two, his quarterback rating was ninety six point six, which
1:09:33
was ninth in the entire league out of forty seven qualifying quarterbacks. His rating
1:09:39
Week nine against the Jets forty six point eight, which was twenty fifth out
1:09:43
of twenty seven. He had a fifty two point nine completion percentage in Week
1:09:46
nine versus his average of sixty three point three on the year. He was
1:09:50
fourth in total passing EPA last year in twenty twenty two out of those twenty
1:09:56
seven quarterbacks. In Week nine he was twenty six into EPA, and then
1:10:00
he was third in positive passing play percentage on the year, nineteenth out of
1:10:05
those twenty seven qualifying quarterbacks in Week nine, and then similar numbers overall to
1:10:11
a degree in that Week fourteen game even with the win. So the Bills
1:10:14
win that game, Alan Drading went up big time. He went up to
1:10:16
an eighty six point five, So it went from a forty six point eight
1:10:19
in Week nine to an eighty six point five in Week fourteen, which is
1:10:23
similar or closer to his ninety six point six on the year, but he
1:10:26
was still twentieth out of twenty seven qualified in QBS and passing EPA. He
1:10:30
was twenty third in positive passing play percentage again out of those twenty seven qualifying
1:10:34
qbs. The Jets, whether it's their personnel or the schematic pieces, they
1:10:40
really just had a good answer for the Bills game plan. I think also
1:10:43
some of it. By week nine we started to see some redundancies in the
1:10:47
Ken Dorsey offense and some aspects that I think teams were realizing, some tendency
1:10:54
pieces that were coming out, Okay, this look means this play and if
1:10:58
I can figure that out watching the tape the Jets, any NFL scouting department
1:11:01
or analytics group or film watcher is going to figure that out. And the
1:11:05
Bills were using certain looks in week nine and week fourteen that they had been
1:11:11
using strictly out of the running certain plays, out of certain alignments and formations
1:11:15
and certain down and distances and situations that were predictable by the time they got
1:11:19
to week nine, even more so when they got to week fourteen. So
1:11:23
then seeing how the Jets just kind of knew what was coming, paired with
1:11:29
the technique that they have on that side of the ball, from their players,
1:11:31
from the athletic the athletes that they have on that side of the ball,
1:11:34
compared with the front, Like, I don't combined with the front,
1:11:38
I don't love. I don't love the matchup of the Jets defensive versus the
1:11:42
Bills offense. I think the Bills offensive line is better suited to go against
1:11:46
the Jets defensive front this year. And I know there's questions at linebacker,
1:11:49
but yeah, man, like that the coverage games that they had, and
1:11:53
just how they were able to match up with the Bills both games last year,
1:11:56
even going back to the year before when I know the Jets were awful.
1:12:00
The Jets gave the Bills some problems at the end of the twenty twenty
1:12:02
one season in Buffalo towards the end of that year, and I'm very interested
1:12:08
to see what Allen looks like because his numbers from an advanced metric standpoint are
1:12:12
significantly different. And then when you watch the tape, you see the double
1:12:15
clutching, you see some of the indecisiveness, you see some of that skittish
1:12:18
play, You see him. Because what you want to do with Josh Allen,
1:12:23
and this is my analysis, you want to frustrate him to the point
1:12:26
where he says, you know what, screw it, I'm gonna take care
1:12:30
of it. I'm gonna do it. And you want him to start chucking
1:12:31
the ball downfield. You want him to start bailing out of the pocket early.
1:12:35
You want him to start consistently trying to truck linebackers and jump over linebackers
1:12:40
because it's awesome and it generates highlights, but it's not sustainable and it's usually
1:12:44
not efficient. You want to get him into that world. And the Jets
1:12:46
did a good job last year of making him inefficient and putting him into a
1:12:51
box where he felt like he had to take things onto his shoulders and he
1:12:56
had to start to make a play. And I think the Bills can avoid
1:13:00
getting into that by having a better offensive line this year, having a better
1:13:02
run game, and attacking that Jets front. But yeah, the Jets defense
1:13:05
significantly affected Josh Allen in both games last year, and I'm very interested to
1:13:10
see how he plays differently, and kind of hanging this in a bit too,
1:13:15
how Ken Dorsey has adjusted versus last year grand We're not gonna be able
1:13:18
to tell because it's week one and the book isn't out on you yet,
1:13:20
but how he's adjusted because I think by middle of the year, that week
1:13:24
eight nine ish area that range is where some of that predictability and tendency consistency
1:13:29
started to develop. A team started to hone in on it. Yeah,
1:13:32
yeah, listen, Josh Allen is I mean, I hate to say he's
1:13:35
an X factor. I mean for as good as the Jets. You know,
1:13:41
And I'll say this and I'm not saying this is a homer like you
1:13:43
know, you know, I think you would attest. I mean, you
1:13:45
just read it off. The Jets played Josh Allen better than any other team.
1:13:49
You know that they consistently does. Now you know Josh Allen also,
1:13:56
you know he to me, he personifies like a big time quarterback, like
1:14:01
you know that there's gonna be no bright lights or big city that's too big
1:14:04
for him. I think this game Monday Night Football. You know Aaron Rodgers,
1:14:10
who, Yeah, Aaron Rodgers who who They happen to be very you
1:14:13
know, they happen to be very good friends. Aaron Rodgers talks very very
1:14:15
highly of of Josh as the player and the person so on and so forth.
1:14:18
So but you know, you know, he doesn't want you know,
1:14:21
you know, he wants to show his best. I mean, yeah,
1:14:26
listen, I don't want to as a Jets fan, I don't want to
1:14:29
see Aaron I don't want to see Josh Allen at that much more motivate or
1:14:32
really playing, you know, with all cylinders going forward, because you know,
1:14:38
that's a dangerous sight. He's just he's that good. You know,
1:14:41
we have to do what we can to contain him. And I think,
1:14:45
uh, like I said, I think control in the middle of the field
1:14:47
is really our best bet if we can, you know, if we can
1:14:50
run the ball, you know, if we can you and our and the
1:14:55
Jets offensive line, for all their you know, unsurety and cohesion that they've
1:15:02
lacked to build this off season, there are a set of five really really
1:15:08
good run blockers. So if we can effectuate the run, you know,
1:15:14
which is you know, obviously, you know, outside zones a staple in
1:15:17
the family Hackett's offense. We've been run a lot more inside zone this year
1:15:21
in the in the you know, in the in camp and in preseason.
1:15:25
Yeah, and I think you know, if you do that, if you
1:15:29
can establish the run, you keep Josh Allen off the field, and you
1:15:32
have and the Jets are going to have that much more of a chance.
1:15:35
And that's a point too, righte Like the Bills. The Bills like like
1:15:39
box, like like to play like box. They like nickel personnel and they
1:15:42
like two high shells and all that. Can you force the Bills defense to
1:15:45
a point where they have to spin a safety down consistently because you're effectively running
1:15:49
the ball on them, Like who controls that piece? Like That's something that
1:15:53
I think is a is a big piece as well. Well. Taylor,
1:15:55
the Taylor rappetition I think is going a little bit under the radar as well.
1:15:59
I mean, you know, you gotta imagine, I got to imagine
1:16:01
there's gonna be plenty of times where you see all three safeties on the field
1:16:04
and in that big nickel. Yeah, And I'm wondering we've been talking a
1:16:08
lot about does it is it a big nickel where he's replacing Taryn Johnson or
1:16:13
is he stepping in for whoever the linebacker is and he's the dime line Because
1:16:17
that's what he did towards his the back end of that Super Bowl run,
1:16:21
Nick Scott and Eric Weddle. I still can't believe Eric Well Weddill started on
1:16:25
that team and want a ring came right off the street. But Weddle and
1:16:28
Scott were the starting safeties in the Super Bowl. Rap was coming in as
1:16:30
the dime linebacker and going up against you know, Jamar chasing the slot and
1:16:35
Tyler Boyd and sometimes being in you know, that apex defender role, but
1:16:40
a lot of times in a true like off ball in the box stack linebacker
1:16:44
type of role. The problem is if you're doing that too much, then
1:16:46
you kind of get predictable. You need to you know, can someone use
1:16:49
that tendency against you. But that's been a huge piece, Like I don't
1:16:55
know if it's a long term play or it's something more for this year.
1:16:58
The money that he took, I just felt like Taylor Rap could have gotten
1:17:00
more to go somewhere else and coming in here he something made him say yep,
1:17:04
and I just feel like they have something for him. Yeah, yeah,
1:17:08
no, I agree wholeheartedly and a lot of that. And you know,
1:17:12
it's funny you say that too, because as I talked about the Jets
1:17:15
linebackers and you know, uh, their you know, their their pluses and
1:17:19
their minuses. You know, everyone was a Kwan Alexander Fannon and what he
1:17:24
brought in Kwan Alexander electric and he was your your quote on you know,
1:17:28
quote unquote typical coverage linebacker. And everyone said, wow, Jets could have
1:17:32
brought him back. You know, he's signed with Pittsburgh for a million and
1:17:35
a half. The Jets offered him contract. I just think that Pittsburgh offered
1:17:40
him a better opportunity to see the field. The Jets probably said, hey,
1:17:43
listen, we'll give the X amount of money, but you're only going
1:17:45
to be on the field. You know, your best option is twenty percent
1:17:47
of the fifteen twenty percent of snaps. You only played thirty last year.
1:17:50
So if that's going to go down, he needs to get paid. He's
1:17:54
probably looking at one more, one more contract, so he goes somewhere else.
1:17:57
Maybe Taylor Raps saying the same thing is that his role here, although
1:18:00
the money might not be great this year, his role here is going to
1:18:03
be something that can you know, uh be beneficial down the road, you
1:18:09
know, and maybe maybe he's a believer in what they're what they're bringing you
1:18:12
should be. I mean, three three consecutive AFC championships on that on that
1:18:16
defense with Sean McDermott running the show. Really now, yeah, I'm interested
1:18:20
to see he's He's been a real I liked him in the preseason just his
1:18:24
ability to come from depth and make plays. He's the best tackler on this
1:18:27
bill's defense, like and he fits into that hybrid versatile, speed, aggressive
1:18:31
type mold role that Sean McDermott likes or has deployed in his previous stops as
1:18:38
defensive coordinator. So yeah, I'm interested to see that piece. Dam I
1:18:42
kept it longer than I said I would, which I feel good. I
1:18:44
didn't even know. I just looked down at my at my clock and I
1:18:46
was like, oh wow, we've been talking for you know, for fair
1:18:49
share. If it goes fast man, Absolutely it does for everybody here watching
1:18:54
live and what I've been marking questions from you folks as we've gone through.
1:18:57
So we're going to dive into the questions from the live chat as we wrap
1:19:00
up this episode here. But dom you, I'm gonna drop the banner there
1:19:04
everybody can see your name, just to be sure you came as advertising.
1:19:09
Well, I should have known, like you, and I like you mentioned,
1:19:11
like I've been on your show earlier this obviously and we're talking about prospects
1:19:14
and tying it into some bills and jets piece, but really just diving into
1:19:16
a lot of prospect evaluation heading into the draft. And I was really excited
1:19:21
to get you on the show because, like I told you offline, like
1:19:24
it's it's tough finding other other people in this niche who cover teams but have
1:19:31
that access and nose and that schematic perspective a lot of times, like I
1:19:34
get the beat reporter guys who who are nice, like they offer a different
1:19:38
kind of perspective. But I was excited to have you on the show with
1:19:41
again you go into the scouting academy and knowing everything that you know from a
1:19:44
schematic and scheme standpoint and structure standpoint. You got a lot of positive comments
1:19:48
throughout the entire episode from a bunch of my regulars here and then it knew
1:19:51
people coming in. Yeah, you absolutely crushed it. I loved your insight
1:19:55
and I just enjoyed chopping it up and talking ball for you know, this
1:19:59
hour and twenty minutes from Fleean Just in case people don't know who you are
1:20:01
or where they can find you. The floor is yours plug. Anything and
1:20:04
everything you got, you crushed it. I appreciate it, and listen,
1:20:08
it was an honor and a pleasure. And I mean that wholeheartedly. Like
1:20:11
I said, you know, we've talked and we've chatted plenty of times off
1:20:15
air and in DMS, and you know, I got nothing but respect for
1:20:18
you and the entire cover, the entire cover one plan. I'm a subscriber,
1:20:23
I'm a follower. I listen, I watch, so you know,
1:20:27
the Bills fans have a good thing here with you guys. So thank you
1:20:30
to that myself. You guys can catch me on Twitter. I'm pretty active
1:20:34
on Twitter all the time. It's at DC Underscore Ny Jets. I'm also
1:20:41
I co host a show, a panel, a Jets talk show on Monday
1:20:45
nights at seven pm with on a Buffalo Jets fan. Actually he's a guy
1:20:50
in Buffalo who's a Jets fan, and the Buffalo Jets Fan is a great,
1:20:54
great show he's got. You know, he's got a big channel about
1:20:56
twelve thousand subscribers. We do it, we chop up a show there.
1:21:00
I also have the prospect a Project Prospect podcast, which will be coming on
1:21:05
soon. Now, it's just not the time for me to kind of dive
1:21:10
into that or get people, you know, and now is not the time
1:21:13
as the season starts over. But trust me, I'm already knee deep in
1:21:17
you know, Prospect valves for the for the twenty twenty four class. Like
1:21:21
Anthony said, I'm kind of involved in the Scout Academy, gonna, you
1:21:26
know, kind of takeing my knowledge of that stuff to a whole nother level,
1:21:29
hopefully to prevent present good content, just like and the guys that cover
1:21:32
one dude. So yeah, man, you are awesome. I wish it
1:21:35
the best. I mean, we we chat pretty regularly in DMS and on
1:21:39
Twitter and stuff. But like, like I always say to everybody anytime I
1:21:42
have a guest on, I think even if you're just a Bills fan and
1:21:45
you don't care about the bigger football perspective or picture, you always want to
1:21:47
stay up on every other team that's in the league because all of those teams
1:21:51
are your enemies. Give down a follow. He's a good one. I
1:21:55
got. I'll put his Twitter handle in the episode show on us. But
1:21:58
again it's at DC unders or and why Jets. Yeah, Dom, you
1:22:02
were tremendous. I appreciate you taking the time and joining me and uh yeah,
1:22:06
have a have a good one. I'll see you around Twitter, and
1:22:09
thank you again. You were phenomenal. Listen, we'll talk soon. Good
1:22:13
luck on good luck on Monday Chat. Thank you, and good luck to
1:22:15
all you guys. I swear I'm not one of those typical Jets fans.
1:22:19
I'm not one of those loud mouths or something like that. I respect all
1:22:24
you guys except the Patriots. Screw the screw them. But I'm kidding.
1:22:27
I'll say that. Yeah, a lot of love here too. I'm kidding.
1:22:30
That was a joke. But I appreciate the time, man, and
1:22:32
we'll catch up soon. Hell yeah, take it easy, Dom, I
1:22:34
appreciate you. Have a good one. Bye, the tremendous guest. Yeah,
1:22:40
I was pumped. Like like I said, I wasn't just blown smoke
1:22:43
while he was there. I enjoyed Dom. We chat on Twitter. We
1:22:46
I met him more during the off season, and yeah, he had me
1:22:49
on his show just breaking down prospects, not even really bills or Jets related.
1:22:54
We were just talking college prospects. Still into a lot of the linebacker
1:22:57
stuff and edge playing defensive line. I think this is just like it'll Oh
1:23:00
no, it was little after the comments, so yeah, like middle March
1:23:02
or beginning March. But he also covers the Jets and does that other piece.
1:23:06
So I thought it was awesome to bring in a dude who knows ball
1:23:09
and talk about the schematic pieces for this game. We are going to continue
1:23:13
to trudge on for a little bit more here in this episode. So,
1:23:15
like I mentioned earlier, your matchups, questions, thoughts, comments, concerns,
1:23:19
what you think will decide this game positively, negatively, Bills related,
1:23:25
Jets related, any other side of the ball, whatever have you throw it
1:23:28
up into the chat. I will start to bring up anything and everything as
1:23:30
much as I physically can while you folks are doing that. And also I
1:23:33
appreciate all the kind words for John that was coming through in the chat.
1:23:38
That's really awesome to see. I love to see how gracious you folks are
1:23:40
and how hospitable you are to the outside guests. So that was tremendous and
1:23:45
yet dom was awesome. So as you folks are gathering your questions, thoughts,
1:23:47
comments, concerns, and anything to put into the chat, I want
1:23:51
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you are listening to this show on. Let us go to some comments here.
1:25:01
Carl says, will John Butler do any play calling or will Sean be
1:25:05
able to handle all? This is a really interesting one, right. Sean
1:25:09
mentioned that piece towards the end of the preseason game in terms of like play
1:25:14
calling duties and what it looked like in the preseason and what it may look
1:25:17
like going forward. That kind of came as a shock a little bit,
1:25:20
because for all intents and purposes, it was like, Sean mcdermot's gonna call
1:25:24
this defense and run this defense. I think Sean sort of answered this specific
1:25:29
question. I think Sean McDermott can handle it all. I think the question
1:25:32
is just will he, like, does he have confidence in Butler or anyone
1:25:35
else who may potentially step up at some point, or is he going to
1:25:39
look to just ride with that and keep that responsibility on his shoulders. That
1:25:43
is a sneaky one, right, because we've talked this all offseason about how
1:25:45
important the schematic pieces, maybe because of Sean McDermott really holistically taking over this
1:25:54
defense and the tweaks and philosophy and play style we may see. So how
1:25:58
much of that remains if John Butler is calling the place or if someone else's
1:26:01
calling the place. I think that's a very good question. I think it's
1:26:04
going to be Sean McDermott for the Jets game, and I think he can
1:26:08
handle it all. But it may be, you know, kind of like
1:26:11
a bigger question of if he wants to continue doing that going forward. That's
1:26:14
a good question. Sarah says, do you think mcdee is secretly planning on
1:26:18
playing a lot of dime with Milano and Rap? I do think we're going
1:26:20
to see that Raptor package. Shout out to Chris Keaptnin from Cover one for
1:26:25
Coin in that phrase. I do think we're going to see some Taylor rap
1:26:27
in this game. I don't know how much, you know, it might
1:26:29
only be. I think a lot of it's going to be determined by down
1:26:31
in distance. So maybe depending on game script, Like maybe he's only seen
1:26:35
ten snaps, the next week, he might see twenty or twenty five.
1:26:40
It's gonna be tough to predict, but I do think we're going to see
1:26:42
some dime with Taylor Rap. I do think. I do think he'll see
1:26:45
the field for a handful of plays. I do think it'll come into dime
1:26:47
perspective. It's really going to tie into what happens at linebacker. Like if
1:26:53
Bernard is your starting linebacker with Milano, there's less of a necessity to pull
1:26:58
him for Rap. I would still like to do that, but it's much
1:27:00
less necessity and just more preference. If Dodson is the starting linebacker, it's
1:27:05
preference, but it's also heavy necessity because Dodson just can't function in those coverage
1:27:12
structures that you need him to, like you or like you would like to
1:27:15
give in the type of coverage versatility you'd like to have if you're the Bills,
1:27:18
and you kind of need to have in today's NFL. So it depends
1:27:23
there on how you're defining a lot. But I do think Rap is going
1:27:26
to see a handful of plays in this game, and I do expect them
1:27:29
to be in that dime linebacker scenario. Another question for Carl from Carl,
1:27:32
which teams linebackers will play better in this game. Will Terrell Bernard be the
1:27:36
starter? Will it be Dodson. I think the Bills linebackers will play better,
1:27:41
mainly because I think Milano is the best linebacker out of all of them.
1:27:44
Mosley is very good too, But I think with like we touched on
1:27:47
it briefly with Dom, I think the Bills twelve personnel package has the opportunity
1:27:53
to give the Jets problems. And if that forces the Jets to either walk
1:27:58
a safety down, I think the Bills can eat on those single high looks
1:28:01
they want to do that, or they're going to run it down the Jets
1:28:04
throw, And if the Jets try to match it with base personnel or a
1:28:08
bigger body safety because of the run aspect of this team, with Knox and
1:28:12
Kinkaid out there like that's fine, then they're going to be vulnerable in the
1:28:15
past to Knox and especially Kinkaid. So I think when we're looking at the
1:28:18
overall performance and effectiveness, I do think it'll be the Bills linebackers, mainly
1:28:24
because I just think Milano is overarching above everyone. But as a group,
1:28:28
I'm more confident in the Jets linebackers just because it represents more of a known
1:28:31
quantity, right, Milano and Dodson, even though I think Milano is the
1:28:35
best linebacker out of everybody in this game. I like Mosley and Williams more
1:28:40
than I do Milano and Dodson, just because Dodson ranks so so low for
1:28:45
me. But then if Bernard is in there, I feel better about the
1:28:46
Bills linebacker group. Are j saying, yeah, John Butler did a great
1:28:51
job in the preseason. It's so tough too, though, because preseason preseason
1:28:56
game plans don't really exist. You're not scheming for any one. You're not
1:29:00
putting together really like a tendency package or situational work. You're not trying to
1:29:04
specifically pinpoint an attack anyone in the preseason. So because of that, the
1:29:09
play calling is different. Not to mention, you want to give kind of
1:29:11
a vanilla perspective and play calling game in the preseason because you don't want to
1:29:15
really put anything on tape. So Butler did do good, but it's it's
1:29:17
just a vastly different piece. But that's fair. Yeah, and Spin says
1:29:23
here, I think coaches around the league are letting coaches that are not the
1:29:25
DC or OC call plays for experience. Yeah, Mike Rabel has been doing
1:29:29
that. You're seeing that more from I think Sean McVay did it as while
1:29:32
you're seeing that more from coaches. But I think it's sweet. It's kind
1:29:34
of like time on task and prepping guys for the next step in their careers.
1:29:39
So I think that's pretty cool. Sarah says, maybe we can elevate
1:29:42
Kirksey from the practice squad. I really do think the long term plays Christian
1:29:45
Kirksey starting at linebacker. I talked about it with Eric last week in the
1:29:49
Cover one film room. I'm okay with it being Bernard or Kirksey. I'm
1:29:56
not okay with it being Dotson. But I do think Kirksey, with his
1:30:00
experience, especially last year coming from that Lovey Smith Houston Texas defense, he
1:30:04
had a lot of those responsibilities. Is that middle third Tampa two lineback or
1:30:09
even some quarters coverages where he has to wall off guys and match and you
1:30:13
know, read or read the two or three or carry them. I just
1:30:15
don't know if he's going to be ready enough to speed for week one.
1:30:18
I think by week two, three, four, I think that's a legitimate
1:30:20
sweet spot where you may see Christian Kirksey be the starter a lot of it
1:30:25
though, the biggest, the biggest wild card of it all is Terroel Bernard.
1:30:30
Right, it was Bernard and Dodson kind of neck and neck when Bernard,
1:30:33
when Bernard was healthy, Bernardo got hurt, didn't play at all in
1:30:36
the preseason, Dodson did, didn't play great. Did Dodson's play kind of
1:30:42
put him below Bernard on the depth chart? Like what do they think of
1:30:45
Bernard? Now? What do they think of Dodson? How healthy is Bernard?
1:30:48
There's so many wild cards at this linebacker spot. I'm stressed about it.
1:30:51
But there's a chance that Kirksy could get elevated for a Week one.
1:30:55
I do think more Week two, three, four is more realistic, and
1:30:59
I think he could be the starter in in those games as well. What
1:31:03
Hans Steve said, if we come out in twelve personnel at the Jets do
1:31:09
go light or go light? Do you think the Bills will actually run down
1:31:12
their throat? That worries me that they will not take what's given. I
1:31:14
do think they'll run the ball more. I think if the Bills come out
1:31:16
in twelve and the Jets go light, I think you will see more of
1:31:20
a run presence, and I think you'll see more of a play action under
1:31:24
center, like intermediate chunk play type of offense. I do think the Bills
1:31:27
want to attack in that way. Adding O Cyrus Torrents from a pass protection
1:31:30
perspective, like I talked with Dom Like, there's legitimate pass pro upside right
1:31:35
like his ability to anchor at his ability to maintain the depth of the pocket
1:31:41
because of his strength and because of his size, and because of his overall
1:31:44
force in the interior of the offensive line, right Like, there is an
1:31:46
upside for him as a pass protector, although there are still our questions about
1:31:49
how he handles the speed rush and regular starters at the NFL NFL level.
1:31:54
But his pro and plus aspect is really his run blocking in that downhill piece.
1:31:59
Like, I don't think they bring in o Cyrus Torrance if they're not
1:32:02
going to have more of a run game presence and more of a downhill run
1:32:05
game presence with him this year, Like it would just be negligent to not
1:32:09
really use his skill set to create that vertical displacement, create problems for linebackers
1:32:15
trying to fit gaps, and you can really just cause problems again, like
1:32:19
whether you're you're using zone or whether using gap scheme runs like you can really
1:32:24
cause problems for defenses trying to figure out how to fit the run because of
1:32:27
the displacement he can create. So I do think the Bills will run the
1:32:30
ball more. I think they'll have more of a commitment to it, especially
1:32:33
in the red zone. I think we'll see more of the Tavous Murray more
1:32:36
Damien Harris. I think you'll see more run game and more play action.
1:32:41
So again, maybe you're not taking what is given from a run perspective,
1:32:44
but I think they'll They'll create the threat of it and then tie it in
1:32:47
with play action and some shots. I think you will see that. Zach
1:32:54
says. I think the Bills need a quick passing game versus a tough defense
1:32:57
at all three levels and a dan line that gave us fits last year.
1:33:00
Very fair get Cook or Hardy out in space, and easy looks for Kincaid.
1:33:03
What do you think? I think that's a good plane. I I'm
1:33:08
much more confident in the Bill's offensive line than I was last year, but
1:33:11
that Jets D line is still good. That's Jets defense overall is still real
1:33:15
good. I do think you have to attack them at all three levels.
1:33:16
I want to see them run the ball and establish that early on, and
1:33:20
I think to Dom's point when he was on early, I think that interior
1:33:24
is where you want to attack. You want Quincy Williams, and even though
1:33:28
I like C. J. Mosley, you want Williams and Mosley working against
1:33:31
Kincaid, especially if you're the Bills, or even Knocks, or again if
1:33:34
you can get one of them out onto Hardy, if you man, there's
1:33:40
a lot of alignment and personnel advantages that the Bills can have with that twelve
1:33:45
personnel piece, especially if the Jets want to run a new man coverage,
1:33:48
like they changed up a little bit who they were last year in that second
1:33:54
game, use way more light boxes or not way more light boxes, but
1:33:58
more light boxes in the second game than they did the first game. I'm
1:34:00
just gonna say Week nine in Week fourteen. So the first Bill's Jets game
1:34:03
was Week nine last year, the second was Week fourteen. More lightboxes in
1:34:08
Week fourteen, more more man coverage in Week nine than Week fourteen. So
1:34:15
thirty eight percent man coverage in week nine, twenty seven percent in Week fourteen.
1:34:21
Zone coverage, big change fifty two percent in week nine, sixty four
1:34:26
in week fourteen, and then changes in two high versus single high coverages post
1:34:31
snap two high coverages in week nine forty percent in week fourteen fifty two percent,
1:34:38
so a twelve percentage point increase. That's a big change there. I
1:34:41
think you have the opportunity to run the Jets out of those two high looks
1:34:45
and make them feel like they have to live in a single high world.
1:34:47
And then when that happens, you start to create those advantageous looks in the
1:34:49
seams and on the crossers, and then if you go spread out of that,
1:34:53
you have the opportunity to I d their coverage by by either exploding or
1:35:00
you know, changing your alignment at the snap and checking anything in particular,
1:35:04
or just having it built in having in some pre snap motion as well.
1:35:08
I think they Buil's offense could create a lot of problems and cause some fits
1:35:11
for the Jets defense with their twelve personnel packets, and then tying it into
1:35:14
your point with those jaded bugs like James Cook and Deontay Hardy, I think
1:35:16
that piece could work well as a game plan. Carl says, who will
1:35:24
be the most prolific pass catcher in this game. Will it be Kincaid over
1:35:28
the middle? I think it'll be Digs. I think Kincaid could be number
1:35:33
two legitimately because of the mismatched potential against the safeties in the middle of the
1:35:39
field. Like I think you could see Kincaid with either the second or third
1:35:43
most receptions, or maybe even the second or third most targets overall, or
1:35:45
potentially like some really big third down conversions or a couple of touchdown targets or
1:35:51
red zone targets I should say, maybe even a touchdown. I think it'll
1:35:55
be Kincaid or Gabe Davis, but based on the matchup, I could see
1:35:58
it being Concaid. Cass says as a whole, I think our offense has
1:36:04
more weapons than the Jets, and our d's are on par with each other.
1:36:08
I do think. I do think their defense is relatively close. I
1:36:14
do think the Bill's offense has more weapons. I think that's a fair point.
1:36:18
What else a crosso with the old line hell hold against a really good
1:36:23
Jets pass rush and while Josh trusted and step up in the pocket, or
1:36:25
will he be jumping and have the first instinct to break out of the pocket
1:36:28
and scramble. That's the question. I hope they hold up against a really
1:36:32
good pass rust. I'm just not holistically confident right now in Spencer Brown.
1:36:35
I think that right side could be a vulnerability, and then you have to
1:36:40
keep a running back into protect or you have to have a tight end,
1:36:43
you know, hipped off of Spencer Brown to kind of create that chip help
1:36:46
and cause problems for the edges. I'm worried about the right side of the
1:36:49
offensive line, mainly from a Spencer Brown perspective, and just because if Torren
1:36:54
starts, we have no sample size of what he looks like in the regular
1:36:57
season, so I think it's fair to have those questions. And you know,
1:37:00
I do worry about that a little bit. By a little bit,
1:37:06
I mean a lot of bit. I'm very concerned about Spencer Brown and how
1:37:10
he holds up, and then what Torres looks like in his first game.
1:37:15
Oh r J says, do you think they treat Kinkaid's wide receiver too and
1:37:17
put sauce on him and then double Diggs? That would be interesting if they
1:37:20
did the whole one double piece based on who they were last year, where
1:37:27
are we they had a man coverage rate last year of twenty four percent,
1:37:31
which was twenty second in the NFL. I guess you could see a specific
1:37:35
game plan piece of that where you're running that one double. I don't necessarily
1:37:40
see it happening. I think they are going to line up in their coverages
1:37:44
as they do traditionally. I don't even think they necessarily put Sauce on Diggs,
1:37:46
like it'll just align that way. I think they're going to stick to
1:37:50
their quarters looks and those two high coverages. Maybe they'll work in more single
1:37:54
high I like Dom's piece of Tony Adams being more of a center field post
1:37:58
safety player, which gives them the opportunity need to run more single high coverages.
1:38:02
But I don't think they'll necessarily treat King Kaid is the wide receiver.
1:38:05
Two Plus, if Kincaid's in the slot, it causes a lot of problems
1:38:09
when you start to run that one double from the slot, and then if
1:38:12
the Bills can id that it start to use motion and different pieces. You
1:38:15
can kind of cause some chaos and havoc with that. Because also two,
1:38:18
if they put Sauce on Kincaid, Sauce is probably gonna have to kick into
1:38:23
the slot or again, if Kincaid is attached to the formation, it just
1:38:26
creates a lot of problems schematically for the defense. But I think that's a
1:38:28
fair question. What else, what else? What else? What else?
1:38:36
I think we're starting to wind down here. Any other questions, thoughts,
1:38:40
comments, concerns, feel free to start to throw them up into the chat
1:38:44
again as we start to wind down here. I think we might just start
1:38:46
to wind down as a whole as we go through here. Carlos is if
1:38:51
they treat King Kaid is wide receiver two and put Sauce on them, then
1:38:54
double digs. Wouldn't that open up dab Davis for a big game? It
1:38:57
could Dave's gonna have to still contend with DJ unless DJ Reid is the one
1:39:02
on digs. But just in this scenario, I don't think. I don't
1:39:06
think Sauce goes on Kincaid because Sauce is gonna have to come in and play
1:39:10
the slot and or play close to the box. If Kinkaid is attached to
1:39:13
the formation and all these pieces. So I don't know, schematically, I
1:39:18
think that's too chaotic, like even for me, I'm already thinking about it
1:39:20
like it causes me stress thinking about it, like which would be good for
1:39:24
the Bills, But I think it's too much of a headache and too many
1:39:27
moving parts to then put Sauce on Kincaid. Also too many assumptions, like
1:39:30
I think I think Kinkaid will do well this year. It's a big expectation
1:39:34
to assume that he's going to do that well, that they're going to treat
1:39:36
him as wide receiver two coming out of the gate in this game and put
1:39:40
Sauce Gardner on him. But that's a fair point. Sarah says, Aunt,
1:39:45
what order would you put the division in? Oh, this is tough.
1:39:49
I think the Bills are one, I think the Jets are two.
1:39:55
I think Miami is three, and I think the Paths are four. Yeah,
1:40:00
so I feel good about it. If Jalen Ramsey was healthy, I
1:40:02
might reconsider two and three. But I'm gonna say Bills, Jets, Dolphins,
1:40:08
Pats Air Alan says, Aunt, who wins in the score? I
1:40:13
am very superstitious. I'm not a little stitious. I am super superstitious.
1:40:16
Where is Michael Scott would say, I'm not superstitious, but I am a
1:40:18
little stitious. I never predict who will win and the score just because of
1:40:23
the superstition within me. So I respect your question. Unfortunately I cannot answer
1:40:27
it because of my superstitions. So I apologize, but I cannot answer that
1:40:30
question. But I appreciate you. As we start to wind down here,
1:40:33
I'm seeing more people are starting to trickle in. If you have not already,
1:40:38
please please please and make you drop a like on this video. We've
1:40:40
had a ton of live engagement and back and forth with you folks, between
1:40:44
each other, with myself, with Dom. If you have not already,
1:40:45
please please, please and thank you drop a li on this video. Whether
1:40:47
you're watching live now or watching post live later, Please and thank you.
1:40:51
Sarah says, do you have concerns about the Miami QB situation a little?
1:40:57
You know, seeing what happened to two last year. I think the injury
1:41:00
concerns are real. I think it's cool that you know he's done the whole
1:41:02
jiu jitsu thing this offseason, has learned how to fall and roll and kind
1:41:05
of use more of his momentum, so he's not opening himself up to potential
1:41:10
damage on his head or knack or whiplash stuff when he falls down from his
1:41:15
overall game. I do think there is some legitimacy to the idea of like
1:41:18
getting him off his first read and making him less robotic and less mechanical and
1:41:24
making him have to read things out. The reason I don't have too many
1:41:28
concerns is I think Mike McDaniel is a good play designer and a good play
1:41:31
caller, and having tire Kill and Jaylen Waddle is just such a plus.
1:41:35
And I also think they're gonna be able to run the ball a little bit
1:41:39
this year. Their offensive line is a concern, which I think is a
1:41:42
concern for two by extension. But I like McDaniel before he went to Miami,
1:41:47
like as a play caller and designer. I think last year was just
1:41:50
more fuel for that fire. You hear, you know, players talk about
1:41:55
him his previous stops in Washington in San Francisco, Like he's just really well
1:42:00
respected for how well he schematically designs his offense and then calls game plans,
1:42:08
what do attack, who to attack, what to pinpoint all that stuff.
1:42:12
So I have faith in McDaniels a play caller and play designer, And then
1:42:15
you probably have the best wide receiver combination in the league with Tyreek Hill,
1:42:17
and Jalen Waddle, and they're so dangerous. I think it just it just
1:42:20
makes two his life a lot easier. But that's I think that's a large
1:42:26
part of it. So yeah, it does concern me a bit, but
1:42:28
I think there's enough surrounding circumstances that it's not too bad. Aaron Allen says,
1:42:32
And from now on we need picks and scores in the playoffs so we
1:42:35
can win a super Bowl. Change it up in our and it might change
1:42:38
our luck. I have legitimately thought of this. I think about it all
1:42:42
the time because I'm so superstitious, and I'm like, oh, maybe I've
1:42:45
been superstitious in these ways. And the Bills haven't won a Super Bowl.
1:42:48
That have I changed some things? They will win the super Bowl. I
1:42:50
have legitimately thought of it. So that's fair. That's fair. That's a
1:42:55
fair point there. I'm gonna throw up the banner here that says tootal folks,
1:43:00
because we were going to start to wind down on this episode. I
1:43:02
appreciate you folks tuning in again. The regular season is here. I've been
1:43:06
saying it on this show on the film room, I feel like every week,
1:43:11
but we've gotten closer to the regular season, it felt like the Bills
1:43:13
were just losing to Cincinnati. I felt like I was just in Mobile,
1:43:15
Alabama for the Senior Bowl and covering college prospects and all these pieces, and
1:43:19
then it was the draft and now here we are, and man, I
1:43:24
just I don't know where the entire off season went, but here we are
1:43:27
and we have regular season football. So I hope you folks enjoyed this episode
1:43:30
breaking down the matchups that will decide Bills versus Jets. If you haven't already,
1:43:34
like I said, please please, please, and thank you drop Alke
1:43:36
on this video. It goes a long way. Sincerely, sincerely, I
1:43:40
did it again. It significantly affects the algorithm and pushes the channel and the
1:43:45
show to the forefront of YouTube. So if you enjoyed this episode and this
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content, please and thank you drop Alke on this video. Myself and the
1:43:51
entire team sincerely appreciate it. Thank you to everybody who rode with me live
1:43:56
on this episode of Disguised Coverage. I appreciate all the back and forth with
1:44:00
each other in the chat, the questions for myself, the kind words for
1:44:03
myself, the kind words for the show, and the kind words for Dom
1:44:06
and the engagement with Dom, So major thank you to Dom as well,
1:44:10
mister dom See for joining me here on this episode. It was cool to
1:44:15
see, you know, he covers the Jets, but just really objective,
1:44:17
knows his stuff. I love that he's in the scouting Academy. He knows
1:44:20
the bones and the structure of football and how it's played, so it was
1:44:24
awesome to see him, you know, do his thing on this episode.
1:44:28
He's a guy who I enjoy chatting up on Twitter, so it was awesome
1:44:30
to get him on and watch him do his thing. And it was really
1:44:32
cool to see how kind you folks were to him as well, So major
1:44:35
thank you to Dom for joining me on this episode. If you are not
1:44:40
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on YouTube and the cover one channel as a whole help you folks enjoyed this
1:45:21
episode. I do have some other pieces that I'm going to be diving into
1:45:26
on the Twitter side of things, from some advanced metrics stuff and some film
1:45:30
stuff. So if you don't already and you have Twitter, find me on
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Twitter at Pro Underscore Underscore and I'll drop the banners so you can see that
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I'll be putting out some more advanced metrics pieces and some things that we didn't
1:45:45
get to in the conversation tonight. If I didn't get to one of your
1:45:47
questions or comments or thoughts in this episode, I apologize. Shoot me a
1:45:53
DM or at me on Twitter and I'll answer your question there. I'm very
1:45:56
active on Twitter and I like to try and get to anything and everything at
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someone go my way. So with that being said, who regular football,
1:46:03
regular football, regular season football is here. I am falling apart as this
1:46:08
episode goes close to the eleven o'clock hour. I appreciate you folks so much.
1:46:12
I hope you and your family and friends and loved ones are all doing
1:46:14
well and staying safe. Be kind to one another, take care of one
1:46:17
another. I hope everybody enjoys opening week in the NFL Lion's Chiefs, a
1:46:23
couple of nights from now and then football Sunday, and then all of it
1:46:27
culminating with Bill's Jets Monday night primetime in New Jersey. Hope you folks,
1:46:32
yeah, enjoy the rest of your week, enjoy your weekend. Any questions,
1:46:35
thoughts, comments concerns from me, get at me on Twitter at pro
1:46:39
Underscore, Underscore, and again, be kind to one another, stay safe,
1:46:43
and I will see you next Tuesday for another episode of Disguise. Coverage
1:46:46
live next Tuesday, nine pm Eastern. As we are fully into regular season
1:46:51
mode here on the show, and here on this channel and on this brand,
1:46:56
God's speed and as always go Bills