Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Best Bets Divisional Round

Transcript

NFL Best Bets Divisional Round · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are a part of the Volume
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I'm Chadmulman of the Action Network. I'm live
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: from my Tommy John Holmes Studio and them I'm joined
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Mike Campadre my BFF Professional Better, Simon Hunter l.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: O Simon Chad.
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: How are we doing?
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Optimistic? Confidence, clear eyed? My heart is full. We cannot
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: lose my brother. We can't not lose.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: That's how I feel. How do you feel?
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: It's my favorite time of year. It's like you got
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: one foot into you know, the best football of the year,
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: and the other foot is off season mode already, all
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: the drama, all the conversation, and I just love this
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: time of here where it's like even if you're a
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: team's a loser and you're out, there's still drama, still
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: something to care about with your team because there's all
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: the coaching change everything like that. And on the flip side,
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: we talked about this is the best weekend of football,
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: right this is our last weekend of at least four
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: games on Saturday. We got two on Saturday, two Sunday,
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: and I try to enjoy it because I know, and
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: you know, it's almost over. Baby, This is done. What's
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: the end? So try to enjoy it.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: It's my last weekend of telling my wife I have
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: to work on Saturday night, so I know I cannot
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: go out to dinner with XYZ couple because I have
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: to work on Saturday night. Today is our NFL Divisional
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Best Bets episode, as we did last week, will not
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: only be we will not only be reviewing the sides
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: for this weekend's games. We are adding any other bets
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: we like as well that will hopefully give folks more
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: to look for root forward think about this weekend.
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: We will also be including those bets.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: As options for our Foxhole, our Tommy John Big.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: Balls Bet of the Week.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: We will of course discuss Simon's Biggest Bets, play Scoot Roulette,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: all that Jazz Sunday night. We normally do our shows
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night around seven thirty. Because the Bills Ravens
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: game starts at six point thirty, we are gonna go
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: live after that game.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be a late night for me.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna need to have a an afternoon espresso to
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: be able to do that show. We're gonna go after
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: the Ravens and the Bills game finishes, and that should
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: be great because we're gonna have a lot of stuff
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: tied to that game, as you're about to find out. Plus,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: you know, Matt Mitchell lives and dies with the Buffalo Bills,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: so it could be super exciting to have to make
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: him record a podcast one way or the other.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: This sucks and it's horseshit, but I'm too polite to
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: say anything because I'm a class act.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Bets are rolling in, lines are moving, decisions need to
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: be made. As a volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhard like
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: to say, there's a sea of money out there.
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm going to
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: be generationally wealthy.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: three six five and now new Bet three sixty five.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Futures, and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: At bet three sixty five must be twenty one or
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: In Iowa terms.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Conditions restrictions apply all right, as always on Thursdays during
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: the season, we like to hear how the wise guys
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: are responding to our Tuesday conversation. We are very influential.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Lines move based in our conversation. Feel compelled to check
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: in and tell us what they're thinking.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: Simon, let's do. Chuck calls.
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain range telephone range, somebody
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: saying maybe.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: What you do?
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: Man? Yeah? Pretty interesting week, obvious because it's only four games,
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: so there's gonna be a lot of you know, back
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: and forth on guys where they're on different sides, and
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: obviously the most contagious, you know, argumentative back and forth game.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: Ravens bills, So there's no doubt. Got a ton of
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: pushback on that one.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: You know, you push back on you liking the bills.
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, guys are just like us where they dive in
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: the numbers and they see that basically when you boil
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: it down to it, every trend, just about every number
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: on the field is going to back this Ravens team
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: for a good reason. Like we already talked about, We're
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: gonna talk about some more. You know, that was definitely
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: in the main call I got about you think they
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: think I'm doing too much emotion here, not going with
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: the numbers, not trust the numbers, And yeah, that's something
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: again we'll talk about. I don't want to give too
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: much away, but yeah, I just thought that was interesting
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: that I thought that was gonna be a more public side.
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: They're Ravens, but there are some really smart professional money
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: on that side. But you saw there's just as much
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: smart money on the bills side keeping this number where
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: it's at right, Like a couple offshore books touched two,
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: immediately took heavy money, went right back down to one
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: and a half. And we've seen here, I don't know
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: if you've seen in Connecticut, in New Jersey. No book
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: has touched two on the bills. Every book has been
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: one and a.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Half in fact, and let's let's let's save that because
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: it's that is the end of the show.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: It's the marquee game.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: It's at one at most books, so it's come down
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: from the one and a half, like the money is
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: coming back on the bills.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: So that is outstanding.
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: Well, I just thought it was interesting conversation with guys,
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: just because I did think it would be a pros
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: versus jows type of game. And it's like, no, this
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: Ravens team, and you do dive into the numbers, you
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: do look at the matchup. There are guys who are
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: just like, no, I'm trusting the trends here, trusting Lamar
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: in this night game. But yeah, I can't wait to
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: break that one down even more a game. And you
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: love we already knew the professionals on either side of it.
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: This Detroit.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: Oh.
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know if Chad loves it, but I love
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: Commanders Detroit Lions. This is another professional side. A lot
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: of the pros love the Lions, but there's a decent
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: amount of us that are crazy, crazy crazy about this
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: Washington team and throwing money on the Washington money line.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: I think they're gonna pull off the upset. I just
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: I can't get over how they match up with this
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: team and the fact that, yes, the Lions are gonna
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: be able to maybe make them one sided take away
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: the run option. That's what I honestly want. I want
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: Jennie Daniels to have the ball in his hands at
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: all times. I just think this is the type of
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: game that we could finally see him break off fifty
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: to sixty runs in this game where it's gonna be
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: him picking up a ton of yards with his own legs.
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: So that was another game that was really interesting to
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: me that, you know, I couldn't believe there's pros out
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: there still taking the nine and a half on this
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: Lions team. And it is just they love this team,
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: They respect this offense, and they think which most people,
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: I think professionally think that the injuries to this defense
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: has been overrated a little bit. I just think they've
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: been lucky with their competition. Now they're about to face
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: a legit offense, and we've seen when they played legit
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: offenses they move the ball against them and then defense,
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: So that's another one obviously that's split. I don't know
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: where you're at with your Eagles love. I'm holding Sean
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: with it. I mean, I might have talked to a
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: handful of pros that are like, well, I like the Rams,
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: but I like them at six and a half and
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: now I'm not going to bet it. So this to
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: me seems like the very public professional side with the
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: pros and the public are lining up on this Eagles team.
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: And the more if we get on the weather, the
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: more it makes sense to me that it's becoming a
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: really pro public side with this Eagles team. Because everyone
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: knows that the LA is a Dome team. Now they're
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: coming out coming out East on a short week, So
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: that was definitely a game I thought we would get
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: pushed back on. Basically none chet We're basically aligned with
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: a lot of professionals on this Eagle side, and yeah
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: for a game that not that it's left for dead,
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: but it just seems like no one really cares about it.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: It's it feels like, you know, pros are betting Houston
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: Texans here, and it's really just about what we always
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: talk about. The models are gonna favor Houston here because
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: it's such a big number and it's my homes as
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: a big favorite, which historically does not cover. But it's
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: not like guys banging the table for this Houston team.
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: I think everyone's just scared, you know, going against the
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: Chiefs in the playoffs. So like we said, I think
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: most guys agree with if this is regular season, of
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: course you would bet Houston here. This is a great number.
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: This is a nice spot, especially with the way their
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: defense matches up. They're great to stop in the run.
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: That's we know the chief the Chiefs, that's what they
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: want to do here. But yeah, no one, no one
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: planting their flag on this Houston team. So that that
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: might be the one blind spot for me this week
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: is I am really not really giving any respect the
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: Houston at all. I think this is such a Chief
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: spot and the fact that no professions really digging their
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: feet in on this Houston side makes me even more
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: confident where it's like, no, this does feel like the
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: game where we see timetime again, right the one seed
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: tends to roll the four seed or where the five
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: seed whoever gets into the come play this matchup. I
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: don't really feel that way with Detroit with the Chiefs here,
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: like we talked about now the Chiefs are fully healthy,
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: well arrested, this does feel like a spot the Chiefs
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: are going to roll. So yeah, pretty interesting. The only
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: pushback we had we're all sides. We talked totals, heard
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: nothing about our love for the totals. That basically everyone
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: I talked to who loves the unders as well. This week,
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: obviously we're on the highest over. I don't know if
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: you've come around on that one as well, Chad, But
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: no guys were calling up saying you're a psycho for
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: betting this over of the fifty five. None of that.
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: Becuys were like, no, I see it, like this could
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: easily be a shootout. And Evan had an amazing trend
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: and basic getting his article about these high totals outdoors,
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: we pick the under indoors that's when they do go over.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it's nice to see the trends back up
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: my love for this over, because I I do think
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: you're getting still a point and a half of value
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: here on this total for this line's Commanders game.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get into it. That first one up
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Texans. That line is settled in
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: at eight and a half since we last both. Yeah,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: we are in the foxhol on the Chiefs. I like,
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: I haven't bet the side on this game yet. I
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: definitely lean Chiefs. I did bet the teaser. I did
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: bet the Chiefs. I moved it down to two and
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: a half and I moved the Bills up to seven
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: and a half so you can see it in the app.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: I've got a teaser on the Bills at minus two
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: and a half, Bills plus seven and a half, Chiefs
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half, And like, I still want
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: to bet the Chiefs here. I'm not buying the Texans.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I'm not buying that they're all of a sudden fixed.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I know their defense is good. What's kept me from
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: going all in has been a couple of trend ends
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: of favorites with Mahomes as more than seven. Right, Obviously,
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: we've talked about this forever. In his career, forty one
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread as a favorite of more than seven,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: five and one this season as a spread of more
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: than seven. Since twenty twenty, thirty six percent as a
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: seven plus point favorite, worst mark of any QB in
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: the NFL.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: However, it's going.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: To be cold twenty degrees Dome teams playing outside fair poorly.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: And then this this is where like I want your
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: take on this, because the trends get really interesting.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: So mahomes overall as a seven point favorite, as I said,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: twenty two to thirty two and three is a seven
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: point favorite when the weather is under forty degrees ten
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: six and one. So what that says to me is
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: just shy. A fifty percent of his covers as a
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: seven point favorite come when the weather is below forty degrees. Obviously,
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: we've been tracking these things for four or five days now.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I've been trying to find like the numbers that back
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: up my suspicion. And when we get this deluge of
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: data which we get, this, to me feels like either
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for confirmation bias or it's confirming my bias
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: in the way that I want it to.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: Does that make sense?
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Like it that's the number I was looking for to
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: make me feel better about betting the Chiefs. It feels
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: like it threads the needle sort of.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: The then diagram of these things.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know a little bit about what you
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: just talked about that we were trying to, like you
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: just said, we're trying to find reasons to back the Chiefs,
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: not reasons to fade them here. So that's definitely an
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: issue going into this one. I agree with you on
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: that where it's like I'm trying to be open minded here,
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: but I know that in my gut, in my heart,
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: I want to be on this Chiefs team. And I
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: think it's what you just talked about there. It's like
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: we've already been here before. We know this exact scenario.
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: And like we said, regular season, we rode that streak,
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: We faded Mahomes every time. He was a big favorite
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: basically this year, and I didn't realize he was oh
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: five to one. That's pretty shocking, Evan. So yeah, that's
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: pretty telling that, you know. It's just it's different, right,
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: the public overreacts over rates Mahomes during the regular season.
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: That was without all of his weapons, too, right, that
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: was without all the guys we've talked about coming back
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: to this point, and yeah, to me, we do respect
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: how great this Huston's defense is and what they've done
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: this season, but this is the type of scenario where
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: it's like you have to factor in who they have played, right,
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: who is in their division, how some of their games
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: have gone when you go back and look at certain
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: games they have, Like you know, I think back to
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: that Green Bay game they played right when that was outdoors,
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: not even that cold, right, but their defense couldn't stop
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: the Green Bay offense. Like there's a couple of things
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: like that where yes, in the right setting, the right environment,
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: their defense is really dominant, but in a setting like this,
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: I just can't see it. And I know that. You know,
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: the strength of Houston right now is the run defense,
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: Like that is their absolute strength. It's gonna be a
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: strength on strength because that's what the Chiefs do. Like
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: second half, they just lean into that run game. And yeah,
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: this Houston team, I think they're just gonna wilt against
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: that type of front. And even if they do try
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: to stack the box and take away the run, Mahome
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: is gonna kill you. The guy has seen it all.
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: This is the exact moment he lives for. This is
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: Andy Reid scheming up those perfect play calls in this
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: exact scenario. So yeah, my confidence, just like you, has
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: not waivered, just a great spot. Like you said, if
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: you're scared off by this big number, it's the perfect
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: number to tease, like they're giving you the teas here
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: like taking it down to two and a half. If
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: you don't like the Bills, throw the Eagles in there.
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: You're taking the Eagles basically down just to win outright,
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: That's going to be a nice spot to be in.
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: So I'm right right there with you. I'm not scared
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: off by this number. You know, the total obviously, we
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: talked about it. That's the only fear for me is
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: we might have missed the key number in the value.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: I think it's too I think it's too low now.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't play the total at the number it's at now.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: It was higher a few days ago. I think you
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: missed it. It's under forty two now, just like.
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: I would still play because I do think it's going
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: to keep coming downchat because we just talked about the weather,
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: like if this is going to be freezing cold and
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: even a little bit of chance of snow, I could
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: see the public finally joining us on the under because
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: right now, the public right now is still in the
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: over because they're viewing it the same way. It's like
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: this the lowest total that you can get with mahomes
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: and you know CJ has big plays. That's what CJ does.
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: He makes big plays that could ruin totals like this
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: for going over. So I get why the early money
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: right now from the public is on the over. But
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: I think it's be a closer and it's gonna be
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: all weather talk, but we're about to get into it.
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: It's this is going to be a week dictated by
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: the weather in many ways, and this feels a good
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: type of game the exact same way where it's like,
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: you know, when people do wake up Saturday morning, they
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: see that it's going to be say ten degrees or
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: fifteen degrees that kickoff, or the chance of snow in
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: this matchup. I just think it's going to become pouring
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: in on the under. So I still don't hate it.
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: If you want to take it under forty one and
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: a half, I just I put it out there, like
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: I have this at forty one. There's only half point
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: of value here. It's not crazy amount of value that
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: I'm making you guys run to the window to bet
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: this right now. But to me, there's still is value
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: on it. But I get where Chat's coming from. It's like,
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: if you feel like you missed it, you could roll
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: the dice and hope for an opening drive touchdown and
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: then you take it live, take the underlive. So that's
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: always the way you can play these type of games.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: I love doing that, and we've talked about that a
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: lot this season. You know, the other day, I forget
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: which game it were, I think it was the Broncos Bills.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: After that first touchdown, the total up to fifty three,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: and it was originally it closed it like I think
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: a half eight, and so you were all of a
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: sudden getting five more points. And we see this all
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: the time, especially with these island games for lack of
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: a better term, where there's nobody else where. Everyone's watching
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: these one game, this one game primetime games Thursday night,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Monday night, Sunday night.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: When there is a touchdown on the.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: First drive or early on in the game, the total spikes,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: and every single time you see like these teams settle
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: in even if there's a touchdown or score right after.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: We saw with Buffalo and Denver this past weekend, like
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: it immediately you can get a really.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: High number live. So I think that's a good idea.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: I just think there's so many options on this game,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: why do you want to waste it on a number
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: that you don't feel that confident about.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: I do want to pull in.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: When I was listening to the Action Network pod, I
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: listen to Stucky in Raybam Ray went all in or
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: like Dalton Schultz over three and a half receptions a lot.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: If you're afraid to play the Chiefs because you don't
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: like the number, that's a good way to play the
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Chiefs without having to play the number. Because the one
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: thing the Chiefs aren't great at is defending the middle
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: of the field. They focus so much on the outside
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: receivers and tight ends historically have a lot of success
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: against the Chiefs.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: And if you expect the Chiefs to.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Be winning, the Texans are going to have to be
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: throwing the ball and Dalton shoots. Dalton Schultz will likely
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: have a lot of opportunities to make some receptions. I
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: don't know if you have a strong feeling on that.
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: I love it. I mean, there's tons of angles you
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: can play in this game. Again, we focus mainly here
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: on just totals and sides, but you know, second half
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: unders under any Reid and Mahomes, it's a cash cow.
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: Like I love betting the second half unders, and we
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: talk about all the time. It's because they basically just
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: ball control, maybe give the other team two to three
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: possessions total in the second half because they just hold
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: onto it, run it down the throat, and just basically
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: take the wind out other sales. And we've seen it
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: time and time again air ahead unders like that's another
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: reason I love this under. It's just a great, great,
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: great spot to play because public use perceives as Chiefs
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: the highest current offense, where that's just not who they've
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: been these last couple of years. So that's another sneaky play.
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: If it's you know, say it is a fluky first half,
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: right it's twenty one fourteen Chiefs or twenty fourteen Chiefs,
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: you have to play that second half under. It's a
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: guarantee it's going to come through if it's that high
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: score or a first half. So that's my another play
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: of this where it's like, if you don't want to
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: bet anything here, definitely lean to that second half under.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: With this Chiefs team, they're just time and time again
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: it's been cashing because it's just who they are. They're
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: just a team that leans into the run the second half.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Washington plus nine and a half at Detroit total fifty
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: five and a half. This was Simon says, you like
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the over a lot. I offer this from Evan, and
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: I say this with love because I am with you
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: on the over. I haven't bet it yet because I
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: think it's I think the total is going to come
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: down a little bit. I keep seeing juice it's directionally
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: towards fifty five. In playoff games between number one and
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: number six seeds, the under is eighty percent twenty four
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: games sample size over the past twenty years.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: I still like the over.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: I think there's one of those games where they might
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: start slow and there might be fifty points.
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: Scored in the fourth quarter.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: I think when these defense are a little bit gassed,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: when the offenses have figured out how to scheme against
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: these defenses that are not very good and don't have
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: great personnel. With the offenses that they have and the
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: weapons they have on offense, the second half of this
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: game is going to be just pinball.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: It's going to be amazing. That's my take on it.
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's an over. I'm betting knowing that it's
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: gonna come down to a handful of fourth down plays
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: Like these two coaches don't shy away from who they are,
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: and we've seen a time in to them. Again, like
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: the Lions games that do go under, it's when they
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: do struggle and fourth down a golf turns a bowl
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: over a lot. And you know, as much as you
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: like to bash their defense and those games were golf struggles.
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: This season, their defense has stepped up. So I do
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: get where your hesitation comes from this over. I mean
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: it's an insanely high total. It's fifty five and a half,
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: So I totally get you're coming from on that one.
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: But yeah, when I when I go through the matchups,
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: I still think, you know, as good as Washington's defense
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: did make stops against the Bucks, you said it right,
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: there was there was a plenty of opportunity there for
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: the Bucks. Just the role this Washington team, especially offensively
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: and on the flip side, as well as Jane Daniels
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: played right the zero pun zero turnovers, I don't think
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: that was that great by him. Like there were a
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: couple of throws he did miss, a couple of guys
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: he did have open and it's like, I just think
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: he needed to get that first playoff game under his belt.
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: Like I do think he'll be more confident, relaxed than
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: this and just knowing that this speed is different, like
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: people say it all the time, playoff speed is different.
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: You have to play it to really get it. And
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: I think he did. You know, even talking after the game,
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: Jeniel Dan has talked about that where it's like he
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: gets it. Where people say it's different than the playoffs.
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: It is like every guy plays if it's their last snap.
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: They are just so desperate to get to where they
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: they're going, and that's the super Bowl, and it's like
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: everyone knows, right, you put in a year of work
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: for this exact one game opportunity. Everyone's gonna be going
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: super hard. No plays off And like you just said,
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: I think this once again favors a high scoring game
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: the second half, where even if it's low scoring in
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: the first half, it could end up being a tract
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: me just because these offenses both are so explosive. They
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: both have weapons that can at any point take the
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: ball all the way downfield and score. And yeah, this
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: this game, I like we talked on sharp clause, I
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: was just shocked to know that there were so many
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: professionals was coming in on this line side. I just
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: we've seen historically it's just rare that both favorites, big
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: favorites like them and the Chiefs cover in the same week.
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: You know, let alone have big win blowouts, and you know,
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: this Commander's team in a normal year, they're probably you know,
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: winning their division with the amount of wins they had
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: this season. Like this isn't just a normal six seed.
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: So I do understand that trend from Evan. That does
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: make sense, but it's also thinking about, well, the sixth
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: seed used to be the last seed. So that was
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: when the sixth seed was coming in and playing the
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: one seed after pulling off an upset and kind of
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: being this, you know, lucky to be in there type
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: of team that gets in there, where nowadays it's like
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: this is like a twelve thirteen win team, Like it's
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: just totally different now sixteen.
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: That is a great point.
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it's just I'm trying.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: To looking for a different because so and your stupid
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: well I.
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: Told you had that amazing stat just to basically about
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: these high totals. The difference between outdoors and indoors, and
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: that to me is once again the difference here, like
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: we're not playing in twenty degrees Philly here We're playing
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: in an air controlled Ford Stadium where it's like perfect,
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: It's perfect for this type of matchup for these both
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: these teams are based on the track and they're just
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: gonna be running the ball up and down the field.
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I still love Washington here. I love the matchup,
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: and obviously for them to win this, I know what
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: I'm doing here. I need a ton of luck, Like
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: there's a reason you're getting plus four hundred right now
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: in Washington. But this just feels like the upset. Like
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: you know, last year, people forget the Chiefs they made
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: that run as the four seed wherever. It was like,
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: we've had a run here of you know, these crazy
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: later seeds making runs. I mean, what was it two
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: three years ago? The Rams Bengals they are both four
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: and three seeds. So I know people are used to
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: just the one seeds dominating. I know historically it is
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: the best spot to be in, but every now and
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: then we do get a crazy upset and that's what
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: I'm banking on here. It's like of all the games
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: like we've gone through here. I mean, you could say
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: the Bills are an upset, but that's not an upset.
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: They're one and a half point dog, one point dog.
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: That's not I real upset this, This would legit be shocking.
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: I mean even talking to book makers, it's basically ninety
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: percent of the bets, ninety percent of the money, all
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: of it is on Detroit's money line, in their parlays,
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: all their teasers. So this to me, in our normal year,
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: I'd feel way more confident about this bet chat. But
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: it has been the year of chalk, So I'm betting it.
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: But it's like with a little bit of a little
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: bit of confidence just because the public has just been
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: winning on these type of bets.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Well, look, I agree with you, of the two games
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: that we're looking at that are bigger favorites, I feel
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: much more comfortable betting on the Chiefs than I do
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: on the Lions. However, we've talked about this all year.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: The Lions under Dan Campbell and under Jared Goff are
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: just dominant against the spread and against the spread at
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: home and against the spread with extra rest thirteen and four.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: Against the spread as a duo with extra rests eleven
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: and two is Phase Golf indoors thirty four to thirteen
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread eighteen to two.
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: And one against the spread.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Against teams averaging more than twenty four points per game,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: the Commanders average twenty eight. The Lions are the best
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl era over the past three years
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: and four years against the spread. And then I want
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: to remind everybody that the Commanders have won their last
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: five games on the final play of the game. That's
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: not even a joke. Five straight games winning the game
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: on the final play of the game. So to me,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: that would make me think, Okay, the Commanders know how
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: to stay in the game. They're going to keep it close.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: There's an opportunity for a backdoor cover. There's reasons to
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: be on the Commanders here. But I will say that
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: that includes beating New Orleans, not a very good team
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: they needed help, beating Philly after Jalen Hurts was injured,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: beating Atlanta because Raheem Morris is still learning how to
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: use timeouts, beating Dallas in a game that didn't matter,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: and then last week because of Baker mayfields fumbled, they
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: stayed in the game, and then they got the Zane
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Gonzalez field goal off the upright. So either they are
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: truly magical and they will find a way to backdoors,
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: huge underdogs or they are due to just get blown
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: out by a better team.
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we need a lot of luck. And it just
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: reminds me too of earlier in the year and we bet.
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: I think they got up to seven and a half
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: in our contest, or maybe it was six and a half.
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: Either way, they were playing the Ravens and it was
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: basically a game where they got dominated the entire game. Yeah,
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: and they came back exactly a way to come back
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: back door and it's like he.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Got up to seven and a half. This is when
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: the Ravens couldn't cover anyone in the secondary. Jaden Daniels
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: had a miraculous throw down the sideline, they scored. They
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: ended up covering the seven by half a point. It
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: was one of the few times where we played the
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: number and it actually worked out for us this year.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: I will never forget it. It was brilliant and it
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: made us love Jayden Daniels.
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: And that's what we need though, like we know we need,
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: We're gonna need a lot of luck here because what
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: you just broke down, like Detroit is the better team.
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: They're more the established team, They're the veteran team. This
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: is their year, Like we talked about, this is lined
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: up perfectly. They have all their coaches still on the team,
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: Their offense basically Montgomery's back, They're ready to go. Their
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: offense is basically as good as it's gonna get for
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: the rest of the season, right Like, there's there's nothing
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: else they can add other than you know, Montgomery like that,
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: that to me is the biggest game changer of their
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: offense having him back with Gibbs, yeah, you know, we
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: talked about that. That's that's a big deal. So we
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: know it's an uphill battle here, and that's why we're
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: we're playing the number, you know, throwing a little on
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: the money line, but it's really all about us getting
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: this back door. That's that's what me and chat are
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: hoping here, is that we can get a miracle hell
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: marry of our own and get this back door cover
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: or crazy upset win and on a two minute drive
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: by Jane daneos So. To me, it's just a fun
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: bet and a great value bet.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: But do you see it? You know what?
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Actually I want to wait. I want to wait until
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: we get to your biggest bets because I'm curious think
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: about this. Is this a you know one of my
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: four biggest bets of the year bets or is this
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: I feel like I'm finding the edge bet and if
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: I've got to choose this side, I'm choosing Washington.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: Don't answer it yet. Let's talk about it with your
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: biggest bets.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: The La Rams at Philadelphia Eagles are minus six. The
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: total is forty four. It's gone up a little bit.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: This was my exec decision, and not surprisingly, I'm not
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: surprised by the feed back that we got on sharp calls.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: To me, it's the only side where there is a
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: clear discrepancy between what the number is and what it
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: should probably be. You said you would bet this up
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: to seven. It has moved up to six and a
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: half at a couple of books. I'm still at six
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: at bet three six five.
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: Nothing has.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: None of my analysis over the past forty eight hours
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: has made me walk away from being super confident about
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: the Eagles.
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Still interesting THO. When you look in the action app,
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: it's the most of the bets and the money right
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: now are still in the rams. So it shows that
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: you know, what I thought would happened this week is
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: kind of happening, which is, you know, the daytime talk shows.
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: They're going to be shitting on Jalen Hurts. They're gonna
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: be asking questions, is is he the worst quarterback left
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: out of all the quarterbacks in the playoffs? Is can
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: you trust him? Can you trust this Egos team? Why
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: wouldn't you trust Stafford, a guy who's been there before? Right,
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: And you know the fact that they're overlooking many little
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: things that we aren't overlooking, which is Egles match up
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: really well against this Rams team. And now you have
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: you factor in the fact that this is Stafford outdoors
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: in the rain, in the snow, and it's gonna be
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: maybe three degrees maybe twenty five degrees that kickoff here
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: in Philly on Sunday like it's it. It does feel
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: very easy. And I do wonder why there was professional
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: money on the Rams early, but now that I know
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: that most that was just you know, taking the value
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: what they saw before they ran the numbers. And the
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: fact that basically any guy I have talked to who's
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: coming on the other side at this point, they've come
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: in on this Egles team and yeah, this is gonna like,
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: to me, this is gonna hit a point of Okay,
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: if it got up to seven I would totally understand
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: guys coming back to their side taking the Rams once
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: I got up to a touchdown, but still at six,
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: I think there's still a lot of value around this
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: Eagle side, and this might not be one of my
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: biggest bets of the weekend just because of that, where
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: it's like, I just don't see scenario how the Rams
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: pull this one off. Like, I don't see how they
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: can get stops defensively and then offensively. How inconsistent Stafford's
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: been now factor in the elements. It just feels like
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: a really bad matchup for him, and I know that.
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: You know, the Eagles lost to Kobe Dean, who's their
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: green dot, he's their play caller defensively. You know, Fangio
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: joked about it. It's like there's only three calls per game.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: He's like, I don't run that unique of a defense.
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: He's like, it's not gonna be that tough. It's it's
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: the tough spart is losing a leader obviously in your defense.
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: But we talk coming into the playoffs, Eagles were the
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: only team with all twenty two of their starters from
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: Week one at this point of the season. Now, obviously
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: they can't say anymore. Right, they lost one of their
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: starters on defense, but other than that, they're pretty healthy.
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: Now on the flip side, this is the healthiest Rams
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: have been all year. Like this is their offensive line
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: is totally healthy. They have all their receivers. I mean,
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: we and chat talked about a little bit on Tuesday,
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: like losing Higbee. I haven't got an update on it,
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: but that's a huge deal for that offense obviously, Like
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: that's a really big safety valve for the Rams. And
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: obviously now losing to Kobe Dean, who's you know, argue
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: with their best cover linebacker, that's even more of a
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: reason to use your tight end and attack that. So
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: that could be an angle if you're trying to play
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: it with the Rams. But I just the more I
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: look into it, it just feels like the Rams that was
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: their big moment. They're win for the city last week
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: in that game against the Vikings, and the way they're
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: gonna scheme it up this Eagles team, especially with the
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: weather what it's going to be, which was you know,
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: either cold, snowy, or wet, It's gonna be a saque
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: type of game. And when I go back and I
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: watch that film on that Rams game. It really did
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: look like men playing against college kids. How big the
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: Eagles offensive line is compared to this d line of
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: the Rams. So you know the Rams new coming in
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: this year, right, They're gonna be really experience inexperienced rebuild year.
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: Losing Aaron Donald. The guys have been playing above board,
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: like they have really stepped up. But this is a total,
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: totally different animal than what they face against the Likes.
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: Even if you go back and watch the Vikings game,
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: there was actually pretty big holes in that game for
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: them running They just got behind and they had to
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: pass the ball, and once they had to pass the ball,
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: you saw it just fell apart with Sam Donald, like
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: there were multiple times there we held on the ball
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: for too long. You can't say the same about Hurts.
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: Like Hurts the type of guy that if the first
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: read's not gonna be there, he's gonna either pull it
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: down and try to run it, or he'll try to
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: make some type of play happen with his feet, which
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: you know, Sam Darnald obviously is not the same type
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: of athlete as Jalen Hurts here. So yeah, the more
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: I dive into it, Chad, the more I love it.
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: I'm with you. I was shocked to see this total
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: win back up. So obviously some smart money is coming
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: on the over great give me better value on a
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: game that's gonna be sloppy in the weather elements with
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: this outdoor team in LA coming outdoors, Like I just
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: feel like this does feel like the classic Philly game
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: we talked on Tuesday, a little bit like thirty one
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: to ten, thirty one to fourteen thirty one, Like just
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: a very low scoring game where you know, one side
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: puts a bunch of points with other side doesen't. So
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: you know that's that's what I'm bank on you is
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: that the Eagles obviously roll, but I still think the
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: Rams could keep up with them offensively. And Yeah, the
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: more more I look at this Rams team and how
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: special of a season they had, right, I think, you
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: know they're they're rare spot. They were one to four
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: start the year and they made a crazy run in
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: the season. I believe it was nine to two to
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: take this division. Incredible hats off to this team what
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: they've done this season, But this just feels like they're
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: finally running into an absolute juggernut. This Eagles team and
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: you know they had it last week with John Hurts.
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: There's no excuse this week that yes, he was rusty,
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: he looked rusty. No excuse this week, full game plan,
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: everything on board. Eagles should absolutely roll this Rams team.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the number just hasn't made sense all week. Hasn't
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: made sense to me that it's not at seven. To
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: be honest, I talked about this.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: The other day.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: This line was three when they play each other earlier
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: in the season, not that long ago, and it was
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: in La. The fact that it's only six now and
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: the Eagles to me, have gotten significantly better. And I
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: think there's too much value being placed on what the
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Rams did in prime time against the Vikings.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: A team that you and I were on. The Rams.
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: A lot of professional betters thought they were on a
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: downward trend and we're getting off the Sam Donald bandwagon
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: after what everyone saw against Detroit.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: So yeah, bet bet bet bet away.
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: By a way I said, though, there's some amazing trends here.
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: If you are scared off by the number, this ego
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: spot is a great user spot. Basically, when they are
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: a big favorite like this at home in the playoffs,
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: they almost always went out right, especially under Sirianni. It's
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: been a really great spot. Sirianni struggles with his team
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: have really come on the road in the playoffs, not
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: so much at home. So it's another just a great
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: spot to back this team at home before Obviously they're
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: most likely going on the road next week to Detroit.
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: Simon, it is time for hour Big Ball is Better
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: the Week.
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: John has the support. Great games start with great underwear,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: and Tommy John makes the greatest We're heading into the
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens.
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: At the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: One point favorites now at bet three sixty five. Still
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: a couple of one and a half's out there, but
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: money has been coming back in on the Bills. As
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: we discussed during sharp calls, the total is fifty one
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: and a half. We're throwing people a little bit of
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: a curveball. I'll get to that in a second. Just
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: some updates. Za Flowers did not practice on Wednesday. John
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Harbaugh said that doesn't necessarily mean he won't play on Sunday,
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: but he did not practice. This is a luck rankings
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: under We discussed liking the under in this game.
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: It is our big ball bet, our first big.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: Balls under, presented by Tommy John fifty one and a
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: half Bills Ravens.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: We were never going to.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: Get there as a big balls with the Bills. I
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: can't get there with the Bills. The wise guys can't
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: get there with the Bills. You might be on an
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: island in some respect with the Bills despite the money moving.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: But betting the under here feels like ballzy because all
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: anyone wants to do is talk about the quarterbacks in
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: this game, and that is making the number higher than
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: you would expect because of the explosive nature of how
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: these two guys can score points. But in seven playoff games,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: Lamar has never gone over. Even when these two teams
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: played last time and Derek Henry scored on i think
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: the first play of the game, it still went under
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: from the original total.
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: And like these are run oriented teams.
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: Baltimore's key right there, that's the key right there, what
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: you just said.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's time of possession fifth in the league past three games.
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: It's first Buffalo is fifth.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: Both are top four in rushing play percentage and top
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: seven in rushing attempts per game. People are just thinking
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: about the quarterbacks and the MVP candidates. They're not thinking
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: about the holistic nature of this game.
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's tends what the public does, right. They
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: just look at the base six of it and they're silly. Yeah,
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: and that's why the early money here has come in.
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: I'm hoping people listening to this this is the rare spiral.
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: I'm like, pull your car over, bet this under and now,
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: because to me, all the money is going to come
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: in professionally on the under, and I think the public
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: will join them once they see that this is another
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: weather game. Shat, this is a game, are right. They're
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: saying might be eighteen degrees ten degrees, It feels like
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: ten degrees or negative three degrees whatever they're gonna project
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: with that lake effect wins because they're saying it might
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: be fifteen to twenty per hour wins during this game
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: as well. Some lake effects snow as well. So this
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: just everything about this says ugly low scoring game where
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: two teams are both run heavy, and you know, you
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: just touch on like this Bill's identity. Especially the second
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: half of the season, it feels like every time I'm
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: watching them, they're bringing in the extra alignment, right, They're
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: always just gonna say that, Yeah, it's the truth. Though,
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: It's like that's totally what they've become because they know
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: they have the ultimate weapon in the backfield. I mean,
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: obviously Littmore's ultimate weapon, but Josh Allen's right there with
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: him where it's like you can do the read option
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: with him and Cook and you bring in that extra linement.
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: You let Josh Allen dictate the play if they don't
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: step up to stop their run, if they're going to
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: keep the safeties back to stop the passing down the field,
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: the Bills are more than happy to run the ball
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: all day. And that's what they've been doing. Like defenses
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: having respect Josh Allen's big arm and the fact that
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: he is not turning the ball over. It's really changed
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: everything with this Bills team. They can be boring, long
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: drive conservative and just run the ball. I mean, Cook,
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: you know, we don't talk about him enough because of
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: the Josh Allen factor, but it's like this guy is
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: a top five, top six running back right now football.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: Like he is that rare breed that when you get
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: down towards the red zone, he can find a way
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: every time they get in there like he's he's got
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: that type of talent where he can find those holes
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: and squeak in to get those touchdowns. And you know,
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: they've really relied on him the season. We're giving him
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: more touches the season going along end. You know, the
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: fact that this is fifty one and a half, I
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: think Chad just talked about it. It really feels like
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: an inflated line because of public reception. It's the two
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: MVPs playing against each other like this is going to
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: be a type of shootout, and the books are being
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: rewarded right now. The money, the bets all of there
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: right now are still on the over. So I want
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: people to get ahead of it. This easily could shift
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: two points by kickoff just because of the weather. And
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: I think that once more news out, let's start talking
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: about once more you know sports shows started talking about,
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: That's when more people are gonna start coming on this total. Now,
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: do you want to get to the sides?
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Chad, Well, listen, I love the sides of Thanksgiving. I'm
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: a huge sweet potato guy.
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: Are you dugging though? That's what the people want to know,
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: is Chad dug in on the Ravens. Are you Are
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: you betting the Ravens.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: I might just go all in on the under you
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: you pick a side.
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: Because people are giving me shit. They're like, they're like,
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: this is the classic spot where Chad and Simon we're
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: gonna count this as a win no matter what side
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: they go on. No, I'm gonna make Chad pick a side.
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: I will pick a side, and one of us will
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: dance another side's grave.
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: All well, this is gonna have to be a Scoo
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: treu let game. I have not made a decision.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Mare party of me is just sort of hoping the
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: money keeps coming in on the bills and I can get.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: It back to pick.
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: That's true. That's true.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: So like I don't I don't feel rushed to choose
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: a side in this game at all, but I will
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: say as a favorite of three points or less or underdog.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: Lamar is twenty six and nine against the spread in
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: the playoffs and the regular seasons, the only six times
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: in his career he is open as an underdog and
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: ended up closing as a favorite. He's six and oh
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: against the spread and six and oh straight up, Like,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: it's very hard not to want to back Lamar, who
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: also I think is leading a more well rounded team. However,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen versus teams that allow less than twenty one
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: points per game sixty nine percent against the spread. That
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: is comparable to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees.
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: So there's there's ways to love both sides.
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: He I totally overall, though, like you just said, the
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: numbers do favorite the Ravens, like when you really died into.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: The trend percent if you look at if you look
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: at the overall matchup, the Ravens are the better team,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: right and that's look it's reflected in the line. They
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: are very short favorites on the road against the number
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: two seed. The market, the bookmakers are telling you that
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: the Ravens are the better team in this matchup. If
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: you don't play this game on the field. Obviously, I
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: want to get the best number I can. I don't
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: feel rushed to bet the Ravens, yet I'm still frustrated
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: that I didn't bet them at plus two. I'm definitely
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: leaning to the Ravens. We talked about the first half
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: the other day. Betting the Ravens at minus a half
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: point Stucky on the Action Network pod talked about the
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: Ravens first half on the money line. I feel like
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: every time at minus one ten, I feel like every
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: time Stucky talks about betting the Ravens in the first half,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: they cover.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: It's it's it's weird, but.
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: That's pretty good. I feel like the best first half
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: team other than ever.
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: And by the way, the Bills are the second are
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: the best second half team ever.
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: And I told you that. That's what Like. There's a
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: bunch of trends I love with the Bills, but that
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: was the biggest one that jumped out to me that yes,
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: the Ravens win the first half thirteen to ten. Yeah,
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: you cover your first half bet, but that is like,
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: you're dead. To me, You're dead. If you're a Ravens backer,
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: you need at least a ten point lead head into
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: the second half. Because Josh Allen all season has flipped
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: a switch and we saw it. Let me start a
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: week one, I mean, me and Chad, We're on Arizona
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: Week one against this Bills team. Feeling great. I think
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: we had six and a half or seven maybe, and
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: Arizona dominates the first half. Josh Allen came out the
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: second half just absolutely dominated, blew them out, and it
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: basically set the tone for the whole season where it
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: doesn't matter where he's at, what his team is struggles
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: are in the second half, it's just Josh Allen. He
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: makes like there are no adjustments how the team can
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: make to slow him down. And we've seen late here though,
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: I think the Bills defense second half has really caught
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: up to it. They've been great at making these second
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: half adjustments and really helping obviously this Bills team stay
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: in these type of games. So yeah, I've I'm I'm
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: with Chad that like, I feel way more confidence and
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: betting the under here, but I have to pick a side.
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: I am betting a side. I am betting the Bills,
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: But I mean, I'm not banging the table like fuck man,
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: I'm talking some pros here, like you idiot, this is
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: the easiest money in life. You gotta take the Ravens here,
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: And it's just like, what the fuck do you know, dude,
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: Like you're feeling that confident about betting this number. I
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: feel more confident or other bets on the sides than
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: they do in this one where it's like I'm I'm
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: betting here, on my model obviously, but it's also just
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: a playoff feeling of this. This does feel like the
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: type of spot to back. Not that he's doubted here,
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen, but it feels like it right when you're
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: going through the playoff numbers. He doesn't have a great
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: record either in the playoffs, right, and that we talked
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: about that's never I never put that on him. I've
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: always put that on the defense that they've kind of
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: let him down these exact spots we're having Stefan Diggs
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: drop a ball right between his hands, like, yeah, I
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: know the Bills have been a curse franchise and they've
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: had bad luck in these exact spots. Were on the
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: flip side. I mean, fuck, dude, the Ravens became a
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: franchise on what ch had nineteen ninety eight and they
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: have two Super Bowls like they don't. This is not
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: some long suffering fan base. This is a fan base
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: has been spoiled beyond belief. And yeah, Evan has an
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: amazing stat Josh Allen, oh and three as a dog
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: in his career. But I think he little thing that
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: you know, saying to us in the playoffs only three
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: is a dog in the playoffs and straight up that's
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: all against Mahomes though, like when I'm oh, Houston, oh
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: right right, we did bet that one. I do remember
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: that game, Houston two and a half. Yeah, that is
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: weird thinking back to that. Holy shit, Watson man, damn,
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: that's crazy. Yeah. So I don't know, it's it feels
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: like Alan I've just viewed as Krypto as the Chiefs.
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: I just think this is, you know, this not this
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: his career defining, but this is definitely off season defining,
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: Like the amount of shit that's gonna come on the
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: other side whoever loses this game, especially if Josh Allen
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: doesn't live up to the moment or Lamar doesn't live
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: up to the moment. I mean, it's all there. This
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: is what you know, TV lives for talking about this
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: in the offseason. So yeah, this, this obviously is the
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: biggest game of the weekend, no doubt.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: This is the you talk about sides.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: This is the main course, brother, This is like the
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: game the ratings that we should we should set a
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: line for what the ratings will be like. If ratings
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: have generally been twenty five twenty six million viewers for
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, I think this goes to twenty eight twenty
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: eight million viewers for this Let's let's keep an eye
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: on that so we can talk about our next week.
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: Matt Mitchell.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: Make a note if Matt Mitchell survives the weekend, because
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: we know the Bills are long suffering fans, because Matt
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: Mitchell talks about it non fucking stop. It is he's
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: making zero long term plans right now because we don't
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: know if we don't even know if he'll be here
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: to record the podcast on Sunday night because of his
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: love for the Bills. Yeah, I feel like my biggest
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: bets this weekend are going to be the under in
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: the Eagles, and if I bet on the Ravens, it's
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: going to be like a tiny little.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: Taste or maybe the first half. I have no courage
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: on this game.
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: I can't follow you. I told you there's there's smart,
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: professional money on that Raven side.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: And I'm a professional simon.
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: Okay, I definitely say it's it's more. It's it's more
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: of the professional side as we sit here on Thursday.
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: But like Chad just talked a little bit about, there
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: is some respecting money coming at this point on the
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: Bill side, and there has been some buyback and we
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: have seen this number move down to one, so it
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: is a really torn game between professionals this one.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: Simon, we have some big road underdogs here in the
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: divisional round, and one of the biggest thrills a gambler
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: can experience is watching the quarterback of a big underdog,
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: with the game just out of reach, masterfully march his
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: team down the field to score a feudal last second
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: touchdown to cover the spread. That's what we call a
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: back door cover. But after the thrill wears off, it's
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: only natural to think what is covering my back door?
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: And that's where the unrivaled breathable comfort of Tommy John
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• 50:30
  Speaker 2: Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty five?
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: Because comfort is king.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: Right now, you can shop Tommy john dot com slash
• 50:38
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• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Save twenty five percent at Tommy john dot com slash Favorites.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites. I'm laughing a
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: little bit because, as is tradition, I'm a train monkey.
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: I just I read whatever is in front of me.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: I have no idea what the ad read is going
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: to be. And a lot of times Matt Mitchell, all
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: credit to him, will create entirely new reads that I
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: am reading in real time for the first time. And
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: so when I saw the line that's what we got,
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: that's what we call a backdoor cover, I was like,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: oh God, where is he going to take this pun?
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: I have no idea how is he going to work
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: this into an acceptable ad for our sponsor, Tommy John
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: And he did it and it makes me giggle every
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: single time. He's a genius. I hope the Bills win
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: because we'd truly be at a loss. Simon, I have
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: said my biggest bets are going to be the under
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: and the Eagles. Tell me what your biggest bets are
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: going to be.
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm heavy on the Eagles side right now. Definitely
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: heavy on this under. Like you just talked about. In
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: this game, Sam goes for teasers like if you want
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: to join me right now, have a ton of teasers
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: with the Chiefs Eagles, tons of teasers with the Commanders
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: with the Bills. Obviously love the Commanders, and you know,
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: like I said, I I've taken the plus nine and
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: a half and I've thrown a little bet, just a
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: little bet on the money line here. It's just something
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: I have to do where I you know, this is
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: the only real dog in this matchup I actually believe
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: in that can pull off the upset. So I have
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: to do it. Like there's got to be one shocker,
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: right This can't be the Year of Chalk, the year
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: of boring Chad. Can we get an upset here in
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: this divisional round? So yeah, for my biggest bets, not
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: a shocker. Love Eagles, especially even at minus six, and
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: love that under in that Bill's raven game. Just that
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: feels like I have it at forty eight and a
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: half even if it came down by two points. I
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: think you're still getting good value of forty nine and
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: a half. So, like we talk all the time key
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: numbers people, fifty one and a half is a key number,
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: Like if you go mathematically how often that lanes on
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: fifty one? You are still getting great value right now
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: taking this under a fifty one and a half when
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: all hope is lost. All this left is relief. Let's
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: play scoot Roulette.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: Scoot Roulette. You'll be on the Bill, I'll be on
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: the Ravens, and we'll just fucking do it. I never win.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: I've just cursed the Ravens. You're welcome, Matt Mitchell.
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: I'm doing it for you, just so you'll be around
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: and your whole neighborhood gets ice cream and you get
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: to eat your fucking wings with your gloves on.
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: But that's what it's going to be. Scoot Roulette, Bills
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: and Ravens.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Let's go all right, before we get out of here,
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: let's bring in Director of Research, Evan Abrams for the
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: final word.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: Evan, this ought would be good. The last word with
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: This is going to be a mess. To answer one
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: of Simon's questions from earlier. So you talked about Hurts
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: and a teaser, Well, how about this favorite of seven
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: or less at home or an underdog? Hurts is seventeen
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: and five against the spread in his career, twenty and
• 53:46
  Speaker 4: two in a six point teaser in that spot, so
• 53:50
  Speaker 4: basically asking him to win the game, but not too
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: bad there.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: So to your point, though, like putting the Eagles in
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: a six point teaser right now and getting them at
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: pit with either the Chiefs at two and a half
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: or the Bills at seven and a half is as
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: good a play as what I did, which is Chiefs
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half Bills plus seven and a half.
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: Feels like a decent leg obviously, if you like the
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: Eagles hits the money line. Let's talk about the cold
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: game you started with, which is Houston and Kansas City.
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: So Houston will attempt to do what hasn't been done
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: in almost thirty years. So road playoff teams since two
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: thousand and three, nine and thirteen straight up in eight
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: plus mile an hour wins twenty five degrees or less.
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: Now they are zero to four when they are Dome
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: teams losing by sixteen point eight points per game. The
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: last Dome team I found to win in those temperatures
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: on the road in twenty five degrees or less than
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: the playoffs ninety five ninety six Colts in Kansas City, Jim.
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: Harbaugh at quarterback. There so been a minute.
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: Let's see if Houston can pull the all time shockers.
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: So I kind of wanted to talk Washington and Detroit
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: here for a second, and there's been a little bit
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: of waffling. So a lot of people like Detroit, a
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: lot of people like Washington. I'll just toss out two
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: different angles here. So it's not often we see a
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: super dominant team like Detroit. So seventy five percent plus
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: ats win percentage entering the playoffs plus being a favorite
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: of nine or more, it's only happened three times last
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: twenty years. Aaron Rodgers two thousand and eight, one by
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: twenty two, Drew Brees twenty twelve, one by seventeen, Tom
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: Brady twenty seventeen.
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: One by eighteen.
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: So if you like Detroit and you think they are
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: the juggernaut they are walking in sounds decent to me.
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: Now the one angle I looked at because listen, Washington
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: scoring twenty eight points per game, obviously Jaden putting up
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: a ton of points on the ground through the air.
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: I thought this was interesting.
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: So playoff underdogs is seven and a half or more,
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: just simply off the bat, thirty two and twenty nine
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: against the spread last twenty years. But what happens if
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: the underdog scores, say seventeen points, those dogs are twenty
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: six and thirteen against the spread sixty seven percent. If
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: they score twenty one plus eighteen and eight sixty nine percent.
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: So to me, it's more of a question of Washington's
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: team total than it is the actual spread, But just
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: two different ways to look at it.
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: And then I found this interesting.
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: So basically, this Josh Allen Lamar Jackson game is pretty
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: much one two in MVP. Now, obviously Saquon could sneak
• 56:23
  Speaker 4: in there or whatever. We haven't seen the votes yet,
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: but if you look at top two players to meet
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: in the playoffs in MVP voting, it'll be the fourteenth
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: time according to FTN who did this research. But I
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: went a little deeper because I wanted to see when
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: was the last time one of those two quarterbacks or
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: players were home underdogs in the game. Last happened nineteen
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: seventy six. So the fact that Josh Allen is going
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: to close as a home underdog in this game between
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: two people two quarterbacks in MVP voting felt, you know,
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: like the line maybe didn't make sense, but obviously it's
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: how you put it there. The last time it happened
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: nineteen seventy six Steelers at Baltimore Colts, it was Burt
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: Jones versus Jack Lambert. So that is the last time
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: it actually happened fourteen matchups between.
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: Why this line makes sense now?
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: Why it makes sense because Lamar Jackson should win the MVP,
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: He should be the odds on favorite to win the MVP.
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: I agree, I completely agree, and I've been saying two.
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: Years at the end, Simon, You're a hater. V Simon's
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: a hater. He doesn't agree, but Evan agrees. All right,
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: we are applying logic and reason to this. We're not
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: getting emotional about the narrative.
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: Correct, we are, and that's why the line, honestly in
• 57:39
  Speaker 4: this game is probably one of the more interesting we've seen, right.
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think anyone really.
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: Can choose between these two teams, but I think the
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: public has because it likes Baltimore in this spot line
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: down to one right now too, So I really truly
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: believe no one has any idea. I'll leave you with
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: just a spot play. So for Washington and the Rams,
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: both one last week is underdogs, both now on short
• 58:01
  Speaker 4: rest on the road. Those teams are thirty six and
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: seventy six thirty two percent straight up, including three and
• 58:08
  Speaker 4: eleven straight up in the playoffs since two thousand and three,
• 58:10
  Speaker 4: so an upset there by either Washington or the Rams
• 58:13
  Speaker 4: would truly be odds defying.
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: An interesting parlay could be Washington team total over and
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Washington to cover, because if the odds are so great
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: and the trend is so great that teams who score
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: over that number of seventeen or twenty one, which the
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: Commanders can acceptably do, and those teams tend to cover,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: that's a fun little parlay.
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Also, if you're betting the over, like I've talked
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: about same game parlay, like if you want to throw
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: in David Montgomery, Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown, like, go go
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: crazy if you're trying to do something crazy like that,
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: cause obviously, if we're getting to fifty five points, we're
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: gonna need a lot of touchdowns. Chat. So I know
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: we will talk a lot about same game parlays. But
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: this is Zack scenari where you see those dumb tickets
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: of guy bets ten dollars to win twenty thousand because
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: he's same game parlayed all these different touchdown scores. That's
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: basically what we need here if we want to hit
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: this over so yeah, that's another angle to play in
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: that game.
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: I like having so few games, we can get so
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: much deeper. As a reminders that f.
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: I'll say, I gotta find Tim Patrick on that ticket
• 59:27
  Speaker 4: as well. That's gonna be a good one this way.
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: That's a good idea. I like it.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: I'm writing that down. I got a whole page of
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: other turn of bets here, all right, Raybond Special, Yeah,
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: that is that as I'm sure we'll get some of that.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: I'm convinced me as a reminder. The Favorites podcast is
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• 1:00:27
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• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: night after the Ravens Bills game. To recap all the
• 1:00:35
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