Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM with Jed Sidwell 9/24/2026 | October Cattle Basis and Corn Yield

Transcript

AG Squawk AM with Jed Sidwell 9/24/2026 | October Cattle Basis and Corn Yield · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, live from Gild, Colorado.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Today we're going to be talking about October live cattle basis.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: What's going on with corn yield and the treasury yield as well?
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that and more here in a bit.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle closed at$333.33, up$5.30.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs were up in the front months, but they were red in the back.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: In the front month, they were up 60 cents at 79.88.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: As I quote the grain markets here, live like to pop on our sponsor sponsor plus 500.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: We use plus 500 T4 trading software to quote the markets every single day.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: And as I look here live, November soybeans are up overnight.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: They're at 1323 and a quarter.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Corn and wheat are both down, though.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: The December corn contract is at 527.5.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: Dece wheat, that would be Chicago, is at 704 and a half as well.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: On to the weather discussion.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: The hard red wheat belts moisture story has gone from the del from delayed to fixed.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: The seven-day totals now run two to four inches across most of the belt as the rain axis shifts back east into Oklahoma, Texas panhandles, and western Kansas, then eastern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma by midweek.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: On the grain market discussion, yesterday we talked about crop progress a little bit.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: I thought I'd pocket pop up the yield to talk about today.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously on this chart, darker is better.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: You can just see that by seeing that the corn belt is darker than most of the states.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: But what caught my eye was Washington up there.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: Man, they're doing great this year.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: Something that wasn't maybe on my radar and something I'll have to research maybe for future episodes.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: That one really stuck out to me.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: As well as kind of into the mid-south, you know, that they maybe didn't see the most favorable weather conditions this summer, but still their yields are holding in there fairly nicely.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: My home state, Colorado, obviously a culprit there on the yield.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: This is a slide from yesterday, my discussion with Mike Sands on our Fat Tuesday show.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: We talked about October live cattle basis for quite a while, mostly because there's kind of a gap right now.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: And at some point, futures and cash are going to have to meet.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: And it almost seems like the futures are almost kind of at a discount right now.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: What'll happen here in the next coming month will be interesting to watch, but it's always great to track the cash market and what it's doing in comparison to futures.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: That's where we're sitting at right now.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: Uh there are the two circles there on your screen.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Outside markets, this was the big headline this morning.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: The 30-year treasury yield hits the highest level since 2004.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: The treasury yields were trading at multi-decade highs early this morning as investors bets on another rate hike from the Federal Reserve mounted.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: The benchmark 10-year treasury yield, which is mostly for mortgages, surged to 5.139%, the highest level since since early July 2007.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: The yield on the two-year note climbed to 4.897% for its highest since 2023, while the 30-year treasure yield, the one that's the headline, was up more than three basis points to reach a post-2004 peak of 5.438%.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot going on right now uh in the general outside markets, but luckily we have a guy that's really good at tracking those and making knowledge of how they interact and affect the agricultural exp space.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: That's the guy that leads us, Tommy Grassofi.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: He does text updates through our premium service.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: And if you're like, Jed, I really wish I could have seen the talk that you had yesterday with Mike Sands, or I could get text updates or a morning newsletter or all of the things.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: They are all on the premium side at agbull.com$25 a month or$2.50 annually.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, if you buy the whole year, Tommy has a bunch of portable Ag Bull speakers that he ordered and he'll ship one of those to you.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: We'd love to have you on board.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: On the economic calendar for today, export sales come out at 7 30 a.m.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: and jobless claims came up came out come out at the same time.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's here just a few minutes.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: New home sales come out at nine, natural gas storage changes at 9.30.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: And the big one on the ag side, the hogs and pigs report, comes out at 2.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: I'll have a slide for you guys tomorrow about that.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: Those are all central time.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching and thank you for listening today.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and tune in.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think Tommy's actually hosting Ag Squawk in the afternoon because I think Davis is out.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: So make sure and catch that.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: I always enjoy talking to you guys every single morning.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and catch that Fat Tuesday show yesterday if you're a subscriber.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: And make sure to watch wherever it's convenient for you.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: We're on all of them.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: We also live stream these shows every single day on X.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.