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NFL Week 14 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: The favorite podcast is presented by fan Duel sports Book.
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  Speaker 1: eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to
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  Speaker 1: the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I'm Chad Moleman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It's Thursday, folks, It's time to narrow down the slate
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: to find our favorite five four Sunday by Hours. I'm
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: me and my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: my dinner dates from Philadelphia on Tuesday nights. Professional better
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, my brother that was a good time buddy.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Who was the name, the guy the b Shout out
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: right and tell the whole story right now. I was
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: in Philly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday night, had dinner
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: in Written House Squared, a place called Dandelion with my
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: good friend Simon Hunter. Fantastic walk into the restaurant. I'm
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: seeing Simon. We're gonna, you know, have a celebration of
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: the end of a great year of our friendship, a
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: great year for the podcast. We toast Matt Mitchell, We
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: toast our listeners. I walk on and Simon's already there.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: I didn't know this yet. I walk in, I give
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: my name for the reservation. The woman who is going
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: to seat me, she doesn't know who I am, so
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: she doesn't know she she actually like this sounds a
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: little weird. She goes. One of your listeners wanted to
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: buy you and your friend around the drinks, which was lovely,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: totally lovely, right, I'd tell us to Simon, we're laughing
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: about it. We're sitting, we're chatting, we're talking, and then
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: about five, six, seven, ten minutes later whatever, the waiter
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  Speaker 1: comes by asks us for our drinks. At this point,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: I've forgotten that somebody was buying us the drinks, right.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I ordered a lag of ulan, which is a whiskey
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: that is on the price of your side. I realized afterwards, like,
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I'm such an asshole. Why would I order that when
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: someone was buying it for us? So I personally feel
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: like I owe Norbert Lewandowski, the listener who brought us
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: the drinks, an apology because it was a totally classy move.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: And uh, Simon and I uh texted Norbert a photo
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: of us outside the pub after the evening. We owe
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: him a huge thank you. Norbert, You're going to text
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: me your size and we're gonna send you some action
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: swag for a deal. And I bought a pony Boy,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: which is some type of beer and it was delicious,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: So we do appreciate it. We do. It was really
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: really sweet. And then he sent me a great text.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: I have texted him and I didn't even know, Like
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I said, I don't know if this is your sell
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: or not. I don't even know, like it might be
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  Speaker 1: totally random. But here's a picture of me and Simon. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: And he said that he actually had bet one of
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  Speaker 1: our money line parlays and did really well. I think
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  Speaker 1: that Simon Simon, we got a lot to discuss. We
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  Speaker 1: gotta get to our money line parlay. We gotta get
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  Speaker 1: to the survivors. We gotta narrow it down. We felt
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: like we were struggling a little bit on Tuesday after
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  Speaker 1: the show on Tuesday night together, you could sense it.
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  Speaker 1: On Tuesday to there there there was just a lot
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  Speaker 1: of unsure injury news for us. So that's why I
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  Speaker 1: just didn't feel as confident betting early in the week. Well,
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  Speaker 1: now we know some stuff, so we should dig into it.
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  Speaker 1: We do have to get the sharp calls. Hello, who's there.
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  Speaker 1: I'm talking right. This is the segment where between Tuesday
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  Speaker 1: and Thursday you start getting calls from the wise guys
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  Speaker 1: saying what they liked and didn't like about what we
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: said on Tuesday. Let's do some sharp calls. Definitely got
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: a decent amount this week. Actually, it was pretty quiet
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: early in the week, and then after our show posted,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: I knew dudes were gonna reach out, just because at
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: my confident level wasn't that high. And man, apparently we
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: had a big miss on the Browns Ravens. I like
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: the Ravens. I thought you were getting good value on
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: the points of all the professionals I've talked to this
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: week are are big on the Browns and the other
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: side we'renning the big on the Ravens. Are just like, yeah,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: I like the Ravens, but I'm not really betting it.
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  Speaker 1: The other guys I've talked to these other professionals, they
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  Speaker 1: love the Browns, and I think they're looking at from
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  Speaker 1: the standpoint the Browns had played against them, had to
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  Speaker 1: buy a week, and they're playing against them again the
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  Speaker 1: following week, so they've actually, you know, their mindsets still
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  Speaker 1: in that same game where the Ravens have gone and
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: played a tough game against Pittsburgh, the same reason we're
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: fading Pittsburgh tonight against his Vikings team. That's just a
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: really hard, faught, grueling NFC North kind of a f
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  Speaker 1: C North kind of game. Now you're looking at the
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Browns team that the word is Baker's look better this week.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: He came in. Suppose he's looking better. His legs have
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: looked better, he's moving well in practice. The offensive line again,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: that's what we were really waiting on to see what
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  Speaker 1: Brown's Apparently they're gonna be back and healthy. So if
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  Speaker 1: that's true, comes Sunday and we're getting, you know, to
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  Speaker 1: minus just two and a half still with the Browns,
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  Speaker 1: that could be one of the picks because I looked
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  Speaker 1: at it as if you're gonna good balue on this
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  Speaker 1: Ravens team. But man, the amount of professional is really
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: really talking tout how much they like this Brown's team.
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  Speaker 1: We have to take it. If they feel this strongly
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  Speaker 1: about it. And then the line movement's going up to
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  Speaker 1: minus three, and that's a big indicator when the money's
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  Speaker 1: pouring in, the tickets are pointing on the Ravens and
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  Speaker 1: it's moving the other way. That's us. You know, these
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  Speaker 1: pros aren't just talking about their betting it like they've
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: been betting this Brown's team. So that that was definitely
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: only the more interesting calls we had. The next one
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: was about the Bengals. I get with the pros are betting.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: They're they're they're betting the four nineers. They've bet him
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: at they've bet him at plus three, they've bet him
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  Speaker 1: all the way down to certain books now have them
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  Speaker 1: at minus one, and it keeps flip flopping back and forth.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: They think Joe bro broke two fingers on his throne hand.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: They think he broke his pinky. They he broke his index.
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  Speaker 1: So I don't know what to do here. I just
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: don't have a strong enough opinion on it, Like I
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: want to take the Bengals team, But when I hear
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  Speaker 1: the pros telling me this stuff, they have better sources
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: than I do. On these teams. They talk to guys
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  Speaker 1: on medical staffs. They were talking to the the scouts on
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: the teams, which that's one of the biggest leakers of
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: all NFL teams are scouts because scouts like the trade information,
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: so they're always trying to get information on other teams.
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  Speaker 1: They have more than happy giveaway information on their team
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  Speaker 1: that doesn't affect their job. Their job is to scout.
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  Speaker 1: So it's been interesting hearing all coming out of since
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  Speaker 1: you that you know, you haven't seen anything like Chefter's
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  Speaker 1: not tweeting about It's been interesting, media not talking about it.
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  Speaker 1: Where behind the doors guys are really talking about this,
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  Speaker 1: this injury to Joe Burrow, And you've seen the line
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  Speaker 1: moving that way like it's that's what they make sense
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  Speaker 1: to me with the fact the line movement was moving
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  Speaker 1: down like it was because to me, the forty owners
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  Speaker 1: of the bang up team apparently it's it's they're they're
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: spot on. They have a good read on this. So
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: maybe I won't bet the forts is one of our
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: best five, but I'll just walk away from it. But
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  Speaker 1: you never know it comes Sunday if we do here.
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  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow has two broken fingers. He's not playing er.
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  Speaker 1: He's wearing some special glove on his hand. That can't
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: make you feel great about a team that needs their
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: quarterback to make big plays on third down. I mean,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: they're not a run first kind of team. I know
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: last week they're running all over the Chargers. We're talking
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  Speaker 1: about completely different defenses here. The four nine. They're bad
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: against the past, they're not bad against the run. So
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: uh that that was a more interesting call. They're back.
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  Speaker 1: They're on our backs with the Washington football team. They
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  Speaker 1: love that pick by us, they love our pick of
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: the Giants both. I think both of them are looking
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  Speaker 1: at that. Those are two dogs are just undervalued right now.
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  Speaker 1: And you know, I would say that the biggest stay
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  Speaker 1: away they kept talking to me about was this line's team.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: And then sure enough it came out a much of
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  Speaker 1: those guys in the lines have the flow. So Jared
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Goff has been out of practice, they just have that.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: They had a couple offensive linemen out. Maybe we just
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: stay away from Detroit this week because I I was
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: really liking Detroit. I was liking the momentum. I was
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: gonna be all over their money line. We'll wait and
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: see if these guys come back and practice today and tomorrow,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: because if they don't, you have to stay away from Detroit.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're already a bad team. I don't know
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: if their backups are going to be, you know, just
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: a complete fall apart kind of offense. If they come
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: in so that's when I was I'm walcome away from
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the Detroit line. For what it's worth, that's great information
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: about the Bengals, great great feedback on the Browns. I
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: listened as I always do to the Action Network podcast
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: this morning hosted by Chris Raybonn and Stucky. Uh. Stucky
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: loves the Browns for everything that you just said, especially
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: the fact that the Browns basically have had three weeks
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: preparing for this Ravens team because they went into play
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: them had to buy getting healthier. Ravens coming off an
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: incredibly physical game, and they have more team, more players
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: on the I are than any other team in the
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: NFL this year. Uh, It's it's crazy. And like now
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: they're down three of their top four defensive back so um,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: really interesting game. Uh bang. Also, that was another one
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: where you could see in the line move like since
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: we spoke on Tuesday to now all the money is
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: coming on the Niners. It's moved from Niners plus two
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: to Niners minus one. Um. Yeah, it's probably that's probably
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: the biggest professional better the week. It feels the amount
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: of money that's really coming on that four and Niners
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: and they've moved it. You know four and a half
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: points now, all right, Well, if if the Browns are
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: getting that much professional love, then it's one that we
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: have to consider for our top five. We've clearly just
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: talked about it, so I don't think there's anything more
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: that we have to say about it. Yeah, we'll just
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: put it icing on it where if you can get
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: the minus two and a half, just take it. Now.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: The pros are gonna bet that up the three most likely,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: even though again the money and the tickets are all
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: coming on the raid Ands. I just see this moving
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: in reverse line movement, just because that that that many
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: smart professional talked of coming on the Browns. What about
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: all right? The other game I want to talk about,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: but I love this was my scoot Roulette pick Um.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: You had the Giants, I had the Raiders plus nine
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: and a half, now plus ten. It's a Pros Joe's
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: game and not in my direction, meaning the bets are
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Raiders, but the money coming in
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: on the Chiefs. Especially interesting the fact that this Raider's
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: team always historically played the Chiefs toff, even when the
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Chiefs were by far the best teams in the world,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: and it was usually in this kind of match up
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: where everyone's kind of giving up on the Raiders team.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: That's really interesting. You said, though, the public is still
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: going against the Chiefs and it's professional money coming in
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: on the Chiefs. So I'm still with you on the Raiders.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: I still think we're getting too many points. But like
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: we we got burned by last week. Taking a public dog.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: It's always a little nerve racking, especially now the books.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: You're saying here, you like nine and a half years ten,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: that's that's even better. So they are by the way
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: that number is moved. It's moved. Yeah, that's that's a
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: little scary. And again that's a key number for a
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: lot of different reasons. The biggest one is seven point teasers.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: People have taken nine and a half. We'll tease it
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: down to two and a half. So that's big. They
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: moved up to that number because now it's just land
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: on three, which most books, you land on three that
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna pay out for a push, So it's
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: it's never good and we're on the other side of
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: reverse line movement. Um, But everything I said is still true.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Last week, you take away that picks six, that offense
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: only gets fifteen points in a full game against Again,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Denver's defense is good. The Raiders can do the same
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: exact thing. They can rush for We know what they
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: can do with Max Crosby, and they're gonna drop people
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: back into coverage and say, you know, Mahomes, beat us,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: drive down the field and beat us. They've had terrible
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: turnover luck this Chiefs team, and we keep talking every
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: week that it's gonna eventually turn Maybe that's just who
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: they are this year. Maybe they're just that team where
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: every little bounce is kind of kind of not go
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: their way, like my Homes is just putting too much
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: power and certain things like again I want to blame
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: his receivers. There's certain times here where he's throwing bullets
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: at guys five ft away from like they can't react
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: quick enough to catch these balls. That's why it's bouncing
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: off their chest up in the air. So I'm still
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: with you, chat, I just don't know. Sunday morn and
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Bill talk us into taking this one because it is
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: it is scary, the movement of it. Well, look, everything
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: we said about the Chiefs last week is true this week.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: And despite the fact we lost that game and the
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Bengal and the the Broncos didn't cover. I'm looking at
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: the box score from that game right now in the
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Action Network app. It was super easy to call it
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: up Free Award winning app Denver four and four totally
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: yards Kansas City to sixty seven total plays, Denverse seventy two,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Kansas City fifty four yards per play Denver five six,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Kansas City four nine. First down passing yards to rushing
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: yards one eighty nine. The Broncos dominated that game. Dominated
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: that game. No, we talked about and that's that's the
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: hardest part about gam with It's like you can do
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: all the work, you can be smart on the right side,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: but the loose little bounces don't go your way. You're
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: never gonna win bets. And that's just how it goes,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: all right. So we're struggling already because like the Browns
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: are professional play, but we didn't necessarily believe in it.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: The Raiders are a public dog, which scares the freak
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: out of us. One game. I know we can count
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: on one game. It's very interesting. Washington football team was
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: it four now at four and a half. We love that.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: People be like, well, why isn't this scaring you? Where
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: the raiders are There's not tons of pro money coming
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: in on this this Dallas team. It's been honestly, the
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: public's driving this number up. The bookmakers probably looked at
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: this and said, you know what, let's just keep pushing
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: up and hope you we'll get more professional money. Most
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: pros are like me, They're just gonna keep waiting. Like I.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I look at this number and I thought, you know what,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: I might as well just wait and see which number
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: it goes to, because if it went down to four
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: to three and a half, I would take it there.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: That's what I would be waiting for. Now that it's
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: a four and a half, I'll bet a little bit
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: on it, but I'm just keep waiting for a bigger bet,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: maybe on Saturday, just hoping it gets the plus five
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: five and a half, because we've just seen it on
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Saturday and Sunday. The line usually moves towards these public favorites,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: and you already knew coming in this is gonna be
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: a big public favorite. Washington is an ugly team. They
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: have the only undrafted quarterback in the NFL plane and
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: again he's played well. We saw last week get a
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: couple of bumps in that game really stupid turnovers. Was
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: able to drive the field the end of the game
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: and get that game, win the field well, which again,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: that was huge for that Washing team and their momentum.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: That's why we want to back this team. This team
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: is riding such high momentums and we're not even talking
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: about coaching matchup. I think Rivera is a much better
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: coach than McCarthy. So there there's a bunch of things
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: that point towards taking this Washington team. The fact that
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: it's outdoor as well is another reason I love it.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: The public is coming in heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy on
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys this Sunday. So if you didn't get that
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: number at four, just keep waiting. You'll be able to
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: get four and a half for five. I believe I
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: kick off. I do worry and I said this the
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: other day that we're not being consistent in our respect
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: for regression, and that a lot of the things that
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: we say about other teams as as it relates to
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: they're on a streak, they're playing well, we're not acknowledging
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: about the Washington football team. What kind of regression you're
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: looking for? That they're barely beating these teams, They just win, baby.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: So if we're getting points in a team that plays
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: teams close, it's it's not that much of a fear.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: It's not like we're taking them minus three. That's all right.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: So that's an important distinction, right when we're talking about regression,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: it's potentially the Packers. It's twelve and a half point
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: favorites against the Bears, which we may get a better example, right, Like,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: but for people to understand that the Washington football team
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: has been winning and Taylor Heineke has been playing better,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: but you're getting a team that is streaking that still
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: isn't getting respect in the market. They're still not and
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: they're also I feel like they're getting proper respect from
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: the bookmakers. Where they wanted to open this game at
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: three three and a half. They said, fine, we'll let
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: the public bet it up, and which is what they did.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: So they're doing exactly what they should do, which is
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: a job, which is you're trying to get public money on,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: you know, a national team, which the Cowboys are. There
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: are top three team in this league. The public is
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: always gonna try bet on them, especially when they're coming
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: off a win. Extended rest. I'm with you on the
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: fact that regression has come from this Washington team. I'm
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: just waiting for it when the line catches up to it.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Like again, if this was minus three, probably on the Cowboys.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: But the fact that we're getting a better number on
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: a close matchup, that's what makes us lean towards this
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Washington team so hard. That's a good explanation. That's the
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: kind of explanation I'm looking for alright. This other one,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: it's so ugly. We talked about it on Tuesday. We
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: still owe are listening audience. A big balls better the
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Week are the Jets, which has come down was plus
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: six now plus five and a half, huge pros Joe's game,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: the bets on the Saints, seventy two of the money
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: on the Jets. Honestly, when I'm thinking big balls, I
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: feel like that Brown's game is the big biggest balls
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: better the week. The fact that it's gonna be up
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: to minus three, A lot of people have to bet
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: that number against a Ravens team that's gonna take big balls.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: That's I'm just thinking about it right now. It's scaring me,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Like I'm so much happy to get, honest two and
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: a half of this Browns team, So that that, to
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: me is our biggest ball is better the week? Is
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: that Brown's big ball better the week this Jets matchup?
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: So would you just say the money is the money's
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Jets. Money's coming big on the Jets.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: I don't fucking like it. Man. Like when I first
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: saw this number, I was probably with them on the Jets.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Kamar is supposed to be back, and they're supposed to
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: get back with their tackles. If this Saints team gets
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: back that front line against the Jets team that they
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: just got dominated dominated up front by that Eagles team.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: And that's what the Saints want to do. They want
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: to run the ball. They got a running quarterback. Even
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: as Surevor Simeon he's been all right for them again
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: he beat the Buccaneers. Like this guy, when you need drives,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: he can't put together some drives. I I get what
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: they're doing. They're taking the points in a batchup of
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: two really bad teams. For me, I'm either taking the
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Saint from staying away. It's a rare time. I'm gonna
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: take road talk and take the favorite. But just just
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: feels like the pros are step into a trap here
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: taking this Jets team, it's it's a little bit like there.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: They saw Zach Whistle play a great half against that
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: Eagles team. They're like, you know what, maybe this kid
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: isn't as bad as he looked with that really lies
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: in that second half once the team's a jet Ustin
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: schemed against him, he could not do a single thing.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: So the Saints, to me, that's that's the one of
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: the better coaching staffs and football they've been reeling. They
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: haven't one in weeks. This feels like a Seaanpagne special
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: where he just dominates. It's a bad team that is
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the all opposite of what we've talked about on Tuesday. Yeah, yeah, definitely,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: definitely one of those where I was waiting on the
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: injury news and I felt like, I like the Jets
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: coming into it, but if they're getting Comar back, they're
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: getting their own lineback. To me, this is a no
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: brainer bet taking that tralk with the favorite here in
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: the Saints. Even if five and a half do you wait,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: like no to me because the six is such a
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: key number. Now I take I took the five and
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: a half. The the odds of it going up is
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: to me not It's I think it's gonna keep right
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: in between that line. Like the bookmakers don't want to
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: put it up to that six six and a half
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: because they know the professional are gonna coming heavy. They're
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: already getting professional money on the Jets team. There's there's
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: no reason for the move it up with that six.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: I was so ready to bet the Jets. I was
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: ready to I love that. I love them coming in.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: Trevor Simeon, Zach Wilson. Why are we even talking about
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: this game? Why are we talking about this game when
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: we could be talking about the Texans and Davis Mills
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: And when we talked about this another one on Tuesday,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: we didn't know Davis Mills was going to be the starter.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: He is now maybe starting for the rest of the year.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: This changes it pretty dramatically for me. He's terrible, I know,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: damn it. I wanted to take this so bad. I
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: loved that we're getting points against the Seahawks team that
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: just isn't good again, they always beat the fourty nine ers.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: Russell always donates fo nance historically. When is the seventeen
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: of five? Straight up? Some crazy statistic? I saw our
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: action never tweeted out man, I wanted to fade them
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: so bad, but I'm not gonna do it to the fans.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it to you, Chad. This this
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: won't be one of our five, but I personally will
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: be ben in Houston. I'll take that trend that team
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: is just lose the finally week after playing the forty nine,
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: and I'll bet their moneyline. But logically it's I can't
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: tell people in good faith to put their money on
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: its Davis Mills kid. I made this line eight and
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: a half well until I got the news that he's out,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: So technically right now I'm slaging it towards the Seahawks.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: I think that's where the value is, but I'm just
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: not doing it. Not betting on the Seahawks team after
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: this is as inflated as you're gonna get with them
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: this season, like they're what they're four and eight for
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: four and nine maybe on the season, bad team and
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: all these points. I will take Houston, but there's just
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: isn't any logic back in Davis Mills. We don't know
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: we're gonna get this kid. He can have a great
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: one drive and then do nothing the rest of the game.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: So that's the fear with betting the side. It's too
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: many unknowns. Really put a lot of money on this
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: Houston team. For the record, you and I are in
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: a contest. We choose our five best every week we
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: are required to take a bye. This may end up
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: being the bye week. I mean it might. Again, it's
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: hard to say because I I have like three or
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: four games I really like this week now that we've
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: made it this far end of the week. So it
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: is gonna be interesting with what we do on Sunday,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: um because usually at this point in the week I
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: have seven I like. So you're definitely right that it's
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: less than we usually have. But we don't have a choice.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: We have to use some certain week. We're gonna have
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: to use a bio week. So if it is this week,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: so be it. But as you say, Dore, on Thursday,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: there are a these amount of games I do like
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: enough to put in. Well, I don't know what games
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: they are, because we've talked. We liked the Browns. I
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: guess if we can get him at two and a half.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: If the Browns, what the fuck Washington football team? Washington
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: football team, maybe the Raiders probably not alright, So of
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: the games we pinpointed on Tuesday, we're running out of
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: games that we love compared to games that we discussed,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: and like, you're gonna try to tell me right now.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Like the Texans we liked when we thought it was
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: Tyrod Taylor, not anymore. The Giants we loved the ten
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: and a half it was Mike Lennon. Now he's in
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: COVID protocols. It might be Jake from You're getting me.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: I don't care. Still, you don't care why because it's irrelevant. No,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: I've never made a bet on the Giant's team the
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: last four years because of who their quarterback was. They
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: haven't had a good quarterback in there since what Eli,
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're going on ten years here. If it's
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: being irrelevant, we've been on the Giants plug who the
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: quarterback is. So I don't care. This is just a
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: pro number. You bet this number. You have a great
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: run blocking scheme team and the Giants going against one
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: of the worst blocking schemes defenses, and the Chargers ten
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: ten a half points. The fact that you just said
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: that quarterback might be out and I'm seeing books now
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: at ten nine and a half on this Shints team
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: makes me feeling better me, Like the other pros are
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: right there with me. No money is coming in on
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: the Giants, No tickets are coming on the Giants. We
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: have a reverse line of movement. Just a pro number.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: You bet this game, win or lose. You don't really care,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: Like it's as a profession you have to bet this
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: kind of number, especially when you look on paper and
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: you see that this line is inflated by three points,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: just because again the public think Daniel Jones matters, Like
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: what is that had ever done? It's your career to
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: make you think he matters. So no, I'm not worried
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: at all. Who the quarterback is gonna be in this
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: this game. Mhm. When you say it like that, I
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: feel like an idiot for thinking that Jake From would
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: would pull it off the board for me. I get
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: it though, Like who the hell knows anything about Jake
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: From He wasn't even that good in college. Um, but
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: you know, we saw Mike glennon last week against that
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins team. You can put a trash game back there.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: I think you would have had the same report the
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: same result of what happened last week when they put
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: nine points up against Miami. So he he does nothing
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: to move, then you need needle from me. Um, obviously
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: I deal. That'd rather Daniel Jones, he is their starting quarterback.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: But I don't adjust to three points off him being out.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: I may be adjusted it by eight point. So that's
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: that's just my view on that team in their quarterback position.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: I just don't really give it any value. Jake from
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: To beat out Justin Fields to be the quarterback of Georgia,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's true. That's just claim the fame and
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: he was that good. All right, Well it's not our
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: big balls. Better the week though. Honestly, I'd rather I
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: feel more comfortable people betting the Browns than I would
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: the Giants. Like the Giants. To me, it's just a
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: pro number. If you want to bet like a pro,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: that's a that's a bet you have to make because
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: that's that's the kind of games we win. Like you know,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: gross I felt walking into a sports book was that
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Tuesday night we got dinner. After we got dinner, bet
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: again on the Giants, but on their money line, and
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: it was just like the grossers feeling never like it
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: whenever you make a bet, and the book, like the
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: teller says, are you sure. That's always a fun feeling. So, um,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: it's rare they care about you. But when you're betting
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: on a team that ugly that they usually are like
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: are you sure you want to do this? And it's like, yeah,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: I know. It's always sweet women like it's always he's like,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: you know, like fifty two seven year old women. You
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: were just working a late night shifts and they're always
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: just so nice. They're like, oh my god, a thousand
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: dollars on the Giants money line? Are you sure? And
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: it's like yeah, it's it's okay, but yeah, exactly, exactly.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: All right. We talked a lot about the four to
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: niners and the Bengals. Do you have anything more you
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: want to say about the Bills now that there are
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: three and a half? Yeah? I was, I was honestly
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: interested here what you said. We told people to take
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: that three and I saw this late late in this week.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Now that might be the most square bet of the week. Right.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: It feels like all the money, all the tickets for
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: coming in. I was gonna say, like, chats we go
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: on the other side, now, are we are we being
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: too square taking this number? Um? The Bills are great
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: against zone defenses, and that's what the four The Buccaneers
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: are gonna run their secondary, They're gonna run his ZWN.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: I saw someone tweet out which I'm probably end up
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: stealing for our Sunday show, Cold Beasley overprop of receptions.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: He is incredible against his zone blocking defense that this
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Buccaneers team runs. So if if you could get that
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: prop now again, usually don't put them up till late
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: in the week. I love Cold Beasley. They're projecting to
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: be their three and a half four receptions. I loved
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: that up to six, so that that's one of the
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: seeker plays this week against his Buccaneers defense. I like it.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: I like previewing convinced me to live in a m
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: at actually network hq UM. So I think if you
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: can get the hook on the bills at three and
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: a half, which a lot of books are starting to show,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: that's the number you want to take. I'm fair with
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: people waiting though, just because like again I'm looking at
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: it on the Action app right now. All this money,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: all the tickets are coming in heavy on the Buccaneers,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: and that to me, that's early in this week. Most
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: public doesn't start betting until the weekend. So yeah, because
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: I honestly could see it get bumped up when people
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: are gonna start throwing this in their teasers. People don't
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: care about teasing through zero. If they can get the
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: Buccaneers to plus three plus three and a half and
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: tease it the other way, they're gonna do that. So
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: to me, there's gonna be so much liability on this
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: number that the books are really gonna need this Bills team.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: And I would love it more at four just in
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: the sense that we've had some bad luck with these
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: kickers man, and four is a more it lands more
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: often now than three does, just because again, it's either
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: landing on two two and a half like we've seen
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: it where two and a half's come such a big
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: number because these teams either go for two, they're missing
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: the extra points just wait on it. I honestly believe
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: will be able to get the four, and worst case scenario,
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: you just have to tease the Bills up like that's
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: what probably end up doing anyway. Um, But I just
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: definitely want to ask you about it because I I
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: felt squares taking this number when I took the Buccaneers
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: minus three. Yea, My whole viewpoint was I don't like
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: fading Brady at home. I just don't. This season, we
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: have not gone against him at home and it's been
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: good to us. So it is interesting seeing that the
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: book tried to stay there at three, being like, you know,
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: we're gonna take a stand here, and they moved off
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: of it professionals game and they bet the Buccaneers. That's
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: why the books that moved up three and a half
• 28:26
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  Speaker 1: back to the show. All of a sudden, we've got
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: about twenty five games that we love for Sunday. No,
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  Speaker 1: it's not that crazy, but again, any given week, I
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  Speaker 1: feel like if you love or love five games, that's
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  Speaker 1: a really good week. Most weeks, professionals might be only
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: bet one to two sides or totals. So any week
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: I come in like this and I really don't love
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: the board, And now we're sitting or Thursday, and I've
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: talked to enough professionals and they've given me more confidence
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: to my bets. It does kind of up it a
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: little bit where it's like, you know what I see
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: what they're seeing. I've looked at what they're looking at
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: on paper across the board. Yeah, we did that show
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: what ten am Tuesday morning. It's where you wake up
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: that early Tuesday, you're not still feeling gross after losing
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: that Bills that being like, oh, I'm ready to go. Yeah,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: let's put ten betson. So it's definitely nice at the
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: end of the week reviewing all these games. All right, well,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: let's review. We have two more games on the board.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: The Bears game we didn't talk much about the other day,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: but now we know Justin Field is starting. We know
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: that the Packers are favored by twelve and a half.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: We know that when these two teams played earlier in
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: the year, Aaron Rodgers said, I still own you. They
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: won by ten on a couple of fluky plays. Look
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: bear down, cuit, Matt Mitchell. It's hard for me not
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: to want to get the Bears in this game, I know,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: but it's I just don't know how they're going to score.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: We needed an out of those world performance from Justin
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: Field to keep that game close. Last time we still
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: you still couldn't get the back door, and I luckily
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: talked to you off that one. We both were looking at.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: We liked it early in the week, and then came Sunday.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: So there's some fishy about that Bears line. And what
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: was the Bears were up ten nothing. Maybe I don't
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: know if they scored a single point the rest of
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: the game. It was like one of those big flukey
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: things where Rogers just turned it on and then like
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: you just said it, you ran that ball into the
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: end zone. He said, I'm I still own you. God.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: I want to take the Bears so bad, Like all week,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be talking about that. They're gonna be piste off.
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: They're they're really gonna be gunning for him. Prime time
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: game teams usually show up in primetime games. Naggi's record
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: as a big dog is terrible. He's horrible against the
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: spread as a coach as a big underdog, like record
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: is everything is terrible? Now with Mitch Drobisky. How about
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: that Jesus crab, how about that it is true Rosky
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: Hall of Famer with an entirely different coach, Like we'll
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: see if you if you're really passionate about today morning,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: I could maybe be talking to it. But just sitting
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: here right now, I know this won't be one of
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: my biggest five bets. It's I just don't fell good
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: a going against the Screen Bay team. They've made me
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: so much money this season and even when pros are
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: fading them, I keep backing them. It keeps working out
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: for me like that. That one that really sticks out
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: was at Rams Green Bay matchup where the pros are
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: coming in so heavy on that Rams team on the road. Now,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: I just did not get it, and they moved the
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: line all the way down, so it's sending here. It's
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: I'd feel better if we were getting thirteen and a half.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: I know the bookmakers won't do that. They they'll get
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: destroyed by the professionals, so they might just let it
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: sit here at twelve all week. But if it gets
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: the thirteen and we can get then our contest, I
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: could probably be talking and taking this Bears team. Here's
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: a tweet from Bill Zimmerman, who is a producer for
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Mad Dog Radio, also covers the Bears uh and has
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: a Bears podcast. Matt Niggs passing offense is averaging hundred
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: and seventy three point eight years per game. It's good
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: for last in the NFL by comparison. Sid Luckman, Hello, Sid, Hello,
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Sid babohad that holding up right now? If you can't
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: see that. From ninety three to ninety seven, average hundred
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: eighty nine point five passing yards per game, said Luckman.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Still the greatest quarterback Chicago Bears history. Now, these are
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: these are dark days for the Bears fans, especially, like
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: you said, the fact you guys will have your first
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: round draft pick. It's I can't even talk about it.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: It's stuff. It's so terrible. Every single time I remember
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: that we're losing, that there might be something good from it.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: I forget that we've given away. We didn't give it away.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: We got justin fields. But and believe me, worth it.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: It's worth it. It's gonna be worth it all right. Then,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: the last game to talk about Rams three point dogs
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: to the Arizona Cardinals, pro Joe's pro Joe's Alert, pro
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Joe's pros Joe's Cards, getting of the bets, Rams getting
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: fifty of the money. We talked about like that's why
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: it was my Simon says bet Um. I thought this
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: line was going to move down again. I said, wait,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: wait to see if you can get the plus three.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: It's now down to plus two. A lot of books
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: down to plus one, and the half had a lot
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: of books with this Rams team. Um, just a pro game.
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: You take this number. The Cardinals are incredibly overinflated, their
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: values incredibly over inflated. We we believe in the Cardinals team.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: I do think they're good. I don't think they're the
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: best team in I still have the Packers above them.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: I still have Tampa Bay above them, especially when it
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: comes to playoff time. None of that's gonna change. I
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: do think that this Cardinals team is really good, but
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: they just feel like a year or two away, and
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: with Murray's health, I'm still unsure about him. Again, if
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: you look at that what they did on paper against
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: that Bears team, all their drives were started within the
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: thirty yard line of that there, so it was really
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: hard to take away anything from it. The pushback I've
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: heard from other professionals is stafford record against teams about
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: five hundred. He's horrible. Um historically just does not be team,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: especially teams multiple games above five. It's again, I have
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: to look the step again. I don't want to just
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: say the wrong staff but apparently teams are four games
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: about five hundred. Stafford's like won one game, isn't our
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: ten year career. That's terrifying because we're literally been against
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: the team that's the best team right now in the NFC.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: So I'm still on the Rams and still my Simon says,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: bet um, but I I doubt you're gonna let me
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: make it one of our five. We we just we
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: haven't really believed in Stafford this season. We haven't really
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: been on that Rams train. So as much love as
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: I have where I just I just can't see it's
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: making us more of our five at this point because
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: we're not getting that plus three. That's that's what I wanted.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: I wanted that good number. The fact that's down. It
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: doesn't feel like we're getting good value. Right But on
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: Sunday divisional matchup home team less than a field goal,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: maybe it was the Rams at plus three and a
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: half and plus three. At some point you gotta think
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: about betting and Cardinals. I know, I just I feel like,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: again you talked about this regression. If you look on paper,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: it's like this Cardinals team has a historically one of
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: the best defenses ever this year. On offense, James Conner
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: has turned in from the guy that kind of fell
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: out with that Pittsburgh team to being what the number two,
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: number three running back and all football this season with
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: like his total points like per touch No. One gets
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: the end zone more often than he does this season,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: He's been absolutely incredible for that team. So I told
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: you last last year. I'm I'm definitely undervaluing this Cardinal
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: team and the Patriots team. That's that's kind of been.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: That's me in the butt a couple of times this season,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: like I try to zig on that team when I
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: should be just riding with him. You're right, I'm I
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: probably should take a step back and take this Cardinal
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: team now that especially there at one and a half,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: that's that's a really good value on the home team.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: But I just can't do it. Feels like this is
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: a scheduled loss for this Cardinals team. Honestly, I like
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: when I can come close to convincing you of something
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: you almost slipped me, honestly, because it's true, Like your
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: logic there is sound, all right. So as we head
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: into the weekend um to recap, we want to wait
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: on the bills. We hope we can get him at
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: plus four as the game gets closer to kick off.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: We're really liking Washington football team. We like the Giants.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: It's a pro's number. You just bet it. Despite what uh,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: some of the older generation ticket takers might say, or
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: what their concerns might be when we make that bet. Um,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: we're leading to the Browns pretty heavily of minus two
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: and a half. You like the Rams as a Signmon says,
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: but as the number moves, I'm less and less convinced.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: It's kind of it right now. Yeah, it's a little bear.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: It's a little bear, not a lot. I love the
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: Raiders still, but it's a public dog. I remain committed. Sorry,
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: you wanna get the money line? Round robin, my friend?
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: Why don't we do the money line? Round robin? Dog?
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: Your dog? Your dog blocks dog? Washington football team Chad
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: does me so last week going four and five. I
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: don't want to hear any ship this week. All right,
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: we're gonna give you some ugly dogs, just bad. Don't
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: be d m and be like, are you sure about
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: taking the Charger's money line? Are you sure about taking
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's money line? Just fucking do it? All right, We're
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: giving you dogs, your short dogs, one ugly big dog.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: So let's start off with it's it's it is gross
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: this week at l Atlanta Falcons. That nine's moved down
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: from plus three. You're not getting any of great value
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: anymore in the number. It's a public dog. We don't care.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: We're throwing their money line in last week after a
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: bad loss. Then Washington. I won't make people put Detroit
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: in because we don't know what's going on the flu.
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing that line all with the plus ten. Now, uh,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: with Detroit, that's god. I want to take that money
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: line so bad. But if we don't know who they're
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: gonna have any starters, if we don't know if their
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: offense lines and be healthy, I can't make you bettered
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: on Thursday. But Sunday that might be one of those
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: I throw in with Detroit if they're healthy. Yeah, we
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: have a lander right now. We have Washington football team.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: We're gonna throw the Giants in there. Wait and see
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: if the Bengals become a big plus number, we're gonna
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: put that in there as well. Like we'll we'll get
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Bangals as a home dog. I know the Joe Burrow thing,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: but at that point you're getting good value there. I
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: don't know what when I would take Jimmy g as
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: a big road favorite so you can get plus one ten.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: I really like that with this Bangals team. Let's throw
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: the bills in there. We just talked about the public
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: sides this week. You want to go against the public.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: We talked about all the time when there's a team that,
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: especially someone that we talk all the time, the public
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: does stupid ship. The dumbest thing they do is they
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: pick one team and they'll make them in all their parlays,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: all of their teasers. That's what the Bucks feel like
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: this week. It feels like everyone's gonna throw them in
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: all their bets. So that that's another one. I like.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: So that's the fourth one, our final one. Chad just
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: talked about it. He doesn't love it. It's the Rams.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: You're giving me a plus number of divisional matchup. This
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: game is gonna be a coin flip. It'll be fun
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: to end the week with our money line parlay on Monday,
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: So that's will be the first time we're doing. I
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: like throwing that the end of the week RAMS team
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: in there. You can head you out if you want,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: because you're gonna have a really good plus out, especially
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: if this giant spect comes through are this money line
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: parley is gonna be a winner no matter what. Uh,
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: let's talk about Survivor. Last week we were telling people
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: take the Bucks. I think that was a good one.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: That was a real good one too. Yeah, it feels
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: like an easy week, like these certain teams are gonna
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: have left. Hopefully haven't used them yet. Tennessee Titans coming
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: off of bye week at home against the Jaguars. Sure,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: I might take the Jaguars number and think they'll cover.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: I can't see this team winning, especially against a variable
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: team that just bullies these teams. So matchup wise, this
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: is a good, good matchup for the Tennessee team. Uh,
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: if you haven't used them yet, this feels like this
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: is it, like you kind of have to use them.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: I want to give people the Chargers, but I just
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: have this weird feeling about that game, and it just
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: seems like such a Chargers game. They lose um after
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: such a big win. They've been so inconsistent this year.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: So if you're stuck and this is the best option
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: you have, I get it with the Chargers. I just
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: personally I would not do it. And the final ones
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: green Bay. You're getting green Bay at home in Lambeau.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: If you still for some reason having to use them,
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: this is this is probably as good as it gets.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: To me. Again, maybe you could save it for a
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Detroit matchup. But to me this is this is a
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: no brainer. Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game at home. Yeah,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: maybe they don't cover that number, but there's a reason
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: we didn't put the money line round, Robin. These are
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: just aren't the game. Darren loses, he'll lose the one
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: o'clock at home random game. He won't lose the prime
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: time game in front of those fans. It's it's too
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: many variants to really go again. So to me, the
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: easiest ones this week Tennessee, Green Bay and the Chargers.
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: I agree with you on the Packers. Maybe if said
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Luckman were playing quarterback it would be a different story. Yeah,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: Or if you had Walter Payton as a running back.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: I mean those things would help sid Luckman, Walter Payton,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: If Roland Herper was lining up at fullback, if I
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: guess that linebacker, if Bucks was playing linebacker, if Richard
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: Dent was on the end, if Gary Fencik and Doug
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Plank were the safeties, Oh my goodness, those funny visuals.
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Two of those old linebackers. Like he was just huge,
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: especially because his pads are so big. But I think
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: about what if he was playing nowadays, he had to
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: tackle you know, Tyreek Hill coming across the middle like
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: rescupes Tyree Hill. That's why they change all those rules.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: I mean literally that tyre Khill would be dead if
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: a guy like Dick Buckets hid. Yes, if Doug, if
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: Dick Buckets hit Tyreek Hill once, you might decapitate him.
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: Seriously though, I always think about those kind of players. Alright, Simon,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: we've said let's let's get the hell out of here
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: because I'm sweating. I'm about to fall apart. This has
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: been the favorites from the Volume and Podcast Network. Hey
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: is Simon Hunter. I am Shadow Millman. Plus we've got
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: a special bonus mini episode featuring Jay Boy Stucky Simon.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: We're talking about college football playoff. We're giving a little
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: taste of Army Navy Service Academy rivalry for or producer
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: Extraordinaire Matt Mitchell, who's doing in a professional job because
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: he has nothing else to focus on since the bill
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: is lost so terribly the other night. It's not fair.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: It's not fair. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: you get your podcast. We will be back on Tuesday.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: Until then, I love you,