Latest / AG Bull / FREE EPISODE: Fat Tuesday with Mike Sands | Historic Low Cattle Placements

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FREE EPISODE: Fat Tuesday with Mike Sands | Historic Low Cattle Placements · AG Bull

• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back to Ag Bull Media.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: We have your Fat Tuesday show.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: We're a day late on Wednesday.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: We had a lot of things in the air, still trying to tabulate from this catalog feed report that we had on Friday.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: And so it gives us just a little bit more time to digest everything.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'm glad because we have a lot of good things to talk about and maybe some slight changes in trends that we've been seeing.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: And we have the guy to talk about it today.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Mike, we had this catalog feed report, and it's the first time since what'd you say April that we've seen a decrease?
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: That's exactly right.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_01: We've kind of been anticipating since overall feedlot placements for the most part have been smaller, not every month this year, but pretty close to it.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: And typically those smaller placements translate into fewer cattle on feed.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: However, when you slow down marketing rates as much as we've as we've done over the course of the last year by uh adding days on feed and extending those feeding regimes, we've been able to maintain through the spring and very early summer months kind of year-over-year increases in cattle on feed numbers.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it looks like that string has now come to an end.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: Our October one on feed numbers were down not a lot compared with a year ago, but by the same token, it's the first decline that we've seen on a year-over-year basis that we've seen since April.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: But it sure looks to me, Jed, like there's going to be more of those kinds of relationships show up in the months ahead.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: And we knew this was, you know, maybe an unsustainable trend to have for so long because, you know, we can only stretch out so far how long that we can keep cattle on feed.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: And we, you know, we're still pushing to higher weights, but I think time on feed has, you know, maybe we started to reach some upper bounds there, and it's shown up in our overall numbers.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: Because, yeah, we put less on feed consistently, doesn't mean that just because there's more cattle in the feed yard, that overall supplies are more.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we've just been holding them for an exceptionally long time.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Other things, market makers is what we call them, pieces of housekeeping to get to before we tear into our slides.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen a higher cash price here recently of something to talk about.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, a pleasant change in that regard.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, numbers did, or at least in terms of overall price levels, bottomed out back around the first of September.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: And since then, we've added pretty close to$8 on Southern Plains cash trade from around$222 to last week's$228 cash.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sorry,$230 cash trade, which is up about$2 compared with the previous week.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_01: And from an overall standpoint, the cash market has kind of been the leader.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: Now, looking back at late last week, we've got a friendly Catalon feed report.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: And in addition to that, a higher cash trade.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_01: In some respects, that higher cash trade, of course, was pretty well anticipated.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_01: The board was carrying a premium to cash, suggesting uh a pretty strong inclination of an expectation of a higher cash trade.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: But nonetheless, the follow-through in terms of futures prices early this week has been maybe a little bit disappointing given uh the friendly, uh market-friendly information that we got at the end of last week.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, as we're we've had two down days in fat cattle, feeder cattle close a day higher yesterday, but they're about down today.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, as we're going live here at 11.54 a.m.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Central, December fat cattle are down about two and a quarter, two seventy-five at 228.10.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: Feeders are down, they've bounced just a little bit here, but still down two bucks at 348 even in the front month.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, this is, you know, you know, there's not a lot of correlation going on right now in our basis because, yeah, we keep on getting some pretty positive cash numbers out there, and the futures, especially the past couple days, just haven't been responding in turn.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we've seen a pretty good run in both fed cattle and feeder cattle futures over the course of the basically the last two months.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: I think as far as futures are concerned, we're up almost$20.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: The board went from a big discount to cash to at times a strong premium or at least par with cash.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: So it's been a pretty strong run as far as futures price changes are concerned.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: And in feeder cattle, it's been even more dramatic.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: That we saw that feeder index now climbing up into that$350 and better area on a on a futures market basis.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: I think overall feeder futures are up pretty close to$30.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe some of that is just a bit of a pause here in what might otherwise continue to be some strengthening in cash prices.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we also have the underlying side of all these markets that provide us our liquidity, and those would be the funds and the managed money.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: And the we have a speculative net long right now.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: We saw that decline for a while, but right now we are net long.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, at least as far as the Fed cattle side is concerned, and feeders too, for that matter, through the course of the summer months, starting back in late July when the announcement about the border reopening was first made.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: Then we got into the middle part of August, and some plant closures were announced.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: And in addition to that, some changes with regard to overall beef imports.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: The combination of those factors in late July and August just sent the speculative community for the most part to the sidelines.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: So there was a massive long liquidation uh from that early summer time frame going into mid to late fall here.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and now over the course of the last couple of weeks, partly due to the leadership from the cash market, we're starting to see maybe a little bit of re-engagement from the speculative community.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: We saw a small increase in the net long in Fed cattle, uh, and the short that was apparent in feeder cattle was covered, and maybe a little bit of an increase in a net long position there as well.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: So it remains to be seen just how aggressive the speculative community will be in coming back to these markets.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it looks fairly promising, you know, like we talked about, we've seen a$20 jump.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: I got posed the question the other day well, how has the beef market been negatively impacted since Trump released those uh true social posts about beef imports?
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: Like, well, actually, you know, it hasn't been overly negative.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: Um, it's been a positive kind of bounce towards the upside here.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: And I think, you know, it's maybe starting to catch the tur attention of some speculative money.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: But I guess we'll see there.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: Also, on the other side of this, beef prices, beef demand is holding fairly strong.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: I wouldn't disagree with that.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: I think for the most part, when you look at just the cutout values, they've kind of overperformed what people's expectations were here in October.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and for the most part, I think that's been a positive development.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: You raised the import question, and everybody remembers the announcement back in August about 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free beef from potentially from Brazil and Paraguay.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_01: We know based on the data at this point, that out of that allowed 100,000 tons in September, only about 40,000 tons made it here to the U.S.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: And it sure looks like October is probably not going to be far different than that.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_01: So the bottom line is that those tariff-free imports, while import numbers are up, we haven't necessarily been absolutely covered up.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: And it sure looks to me like uh this was a pretty sizable net wealth transfer to the Brazilian beef industry and JBS and Marfreg in particular, they probably would have brought the same amount of beef here in total anyway.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and the announcement just led to some pretty significantly bearish expectations that ultimately have proven to be much too bearish.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: And I mean, yeah, it has played out in the futures market just that way.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: We've gotten through our pieces of housekeeping here, Mike.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: Our market makers on top there.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: Here's our what we have for the meat of the show today.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: September placements are record small, expecting further declines.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: This past Cattle on feed report was a quarterly one, so we saw fewer heifers on feed, but just barely limited retention rates there.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: Feedlot inventories dipped below a year earlier, front loaded with heavy weights.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: Expect record small July, December placements and limited Jan to June Fed supply.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: And then the Mexican feeder imports are ticking away.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: This is our very first one here, Mike.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: September feedlot placements are historically small.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, this is just looking at overall year-to-year changes by month through the last several months, and the red spikes that you see there are forecasts for the next several months.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_01: Couple of things really stick out.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_01: First of all, the placements in the last several months have been well below year-ago levels.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_01: And just looking at July, August, September, those three large down spikes have averaged fairly close to 11% below last year.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_01: That's a decline of almost 600,000 compared with the same time last year.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_01: Now it does look to me like overall feedlot placements, if we go out over the next several months, will continue to run below year-ago levels.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_01: I think for the most part, just looking back at the Catalon feed report, if there was a surprise, and I believe that there was, it's that overall feedlot placements were smaller than the trade had anticipated.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_01: I think the average guess ahead of the report was for an 8% drop in placements.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_01: Turns out that it was down pretty close to 12%.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: And that just added to that July, August SEP decline in overall feedlot placements.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_01: Ultimately, we know that we've got a relatively large front-end supply that we're still dealing with, but ultimately those smaller feedlot placements are going to come to the forefront.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_01: We'll talk a little bit more about that in a minute, but smaller placements ultimately translate into fewer fed cattle.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe we just had a slight piece of optimism for slight retention rate indicator from this report.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: It almost looks like that just didn't play out, Mike.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's exactly right.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: We we look at these quarterly reports and try and get some notion of heifer retention based on the number of heifers on feed.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: And as of October 1, the number of heifers reported on feed were down about 1% from last year.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: That's a pretty modest decline.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_01: In addition to that, the number of heifers on feed accounted for almost 38% of the inventory.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_01: Now that's a little bit below last year, but it's still not a big enough decline to really suggest that there's been any aggressive heifer retention or herd building.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: At best, it looks to me like the cow herd the beef cow herd has stabilized.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: I fully expect come January 1, and we'll be talking more about this in the weeks ahead, that the overall beef cow herd may be slightly bigger than a year ago, but that's a function of some pretty limited heifer retention, along with very sharp decline in the culling rate.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, we talked about off-camera a little bit.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: You look at that map that you send out in our livestock group chat, the cattle areas in drought.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: Man, we're down to 47%, I think was the last one, but still that's not great, especially when we were at 60, 60 or higher for quite some time.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we can build back all we want, but we have to be able to feed them something, Mike.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: That's exactly right.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_01: If you look back at that percentage of the inventory located in moderate to more severe drought, starting from when the grazing season basically began back around the first of May and ended in early October, I think the percentage averaged across that entire time frame was around 55 or 58 percent of the inventory through that entire time frame was located in moderate to severe drought.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: That's not the kind of an environment that you would anticipate any herd growth occurring.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, you're absolutely right there.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_00: This slide here, the recent increases in feedlot inventories give way to declines.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, as we alluded to uh in early in our discussion, Jed, this October one on feed number dipped below a year ago, first time since back in April.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_01: But this is not the end of the monthly declines in feedlot inventories.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_01: If in fact my expectations are correct with regard to smaller placements, and we know that July-August set placements were in fact record small, it sure looks to me like on-feed inventories are going to continue to shrink on a year-over-year basis.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_01: Now, seasonally on December 1 or January 1, we typically peak out in terms of overall feedlot inventories, but on a year-over-year basis, it sure looks to me like these on-feed inventories just continue to shrink into the early part of next year.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, kind of the same story from the very first slide, you know, we just have to have the cattle for it, and it doesn't make sense right now with the sheer number of cattle we have on feed.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: But I mean, right now your opportunity cost when you sell one to try and put one back in the yard is not only is just the flat rate to buy a feeder calf expensive right now, but interest rates, Mike, uh, to finance those cattle to put them on feed aren't supportive of that either.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: No, the ownership cost, certainly from an interest rate standpoint, is is gotten maybe even more expensive, certainly higher than it was a year ago at this time.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and the Fed meeting is is today.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: I think the overall expectation is, at least here in the short run, that they probably won't change rates this month.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_01: But I think the general expectation is that we've probably got further rate increases ahead of us.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that affects the cattle industry, given that it is a capital-intensive industry.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_01: Like many others, it does affect overall costs.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_01: Now we have had a little bit of help from lower corn prices.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_01: Folks in the grain business aren't going to appreciate that, but a pretty sharp drop here in corn futures and maybe some weaker basis levels as well.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_01: That's been a little bit helpful as uh as well as changes in in overall feed costs going forward.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: That's helped support the feeder market.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the other part of that, of course, when when feed costs come down, we often think that we tend to feed cattle a little bit longer when feed isn't, and I'm not gonna argue that it's cheap, but it is cheaper than it was back in May and June.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_01: But the bottom line is uh we've continued to see some increases in carcass weights.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_01: Now, this chart is from the comprehensive report that was released this week.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: And the thing that caught my eye is over the last couple of weeks, those carcass weights have increased really sharply.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_01: We got up to around 965 pounds on an average carcass weight last week.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: That's record high for this time period of the year, and it almost matches the all-time record high at 966 pounds last March.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: So there's not much doubt that we are going to set new record highs in terms of carcass weights this fall.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_01: And I think it at this point, maybe those heavy weights might in fact limit some of the leverage that the cattle feeder has enjoyed through the summer months, in the sense that at these types of weights, maybe we don't have the option necessarily to feed cattle another two weeks or four weeks or longer.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and we we we've said that on previous Fat Tuesday shows, Mike.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: You know, at some point our feet are gonna get pushed to the fire and we're just gonna have to send them to town.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, we just keep on pressing that upper limit.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: I do think maybe some of the slight incre or maybe I shouldn't say slight, but increase in overall carcass weights we can attribute to just the seasonal time of year, like we have year over year.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_00: But still, if you look comparatively, it's at a much higher rate.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: Probably just hard to say that was the change in barometer helping the cattle gain just a little bit.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_00: But at the same time, it's interesting to see what trends this will set in cattle feeding as a whole.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_00: I wonder if we almost get more continental influenced cattle back on feed.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_00: You know, we pushed away from the Charlet-influenced, the limousine influenced cattle that came over in the 80s and 90s because they just weren't efficient enough.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_00: They didn't grade well enough.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_00: And man, it's looking like right now, turnover rate isn't just your friend right now if you're a cattle feeder, but sheer late maturity growth, uh frame size and carcass weights, those are, I mean, more prevalent than ever.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be interesting to see if we kind of just change the type of cattle we have on feed.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that's that's still a work in progress, no question about that.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_01: And from a location standpoint, it looks to me like the bulk of those heavier weight or heaviest weight cattle are probably located in the same areas where the numbers are the largest, and that's in the north.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_01: In addition to that, of course, we know we've lost some slaughter capacity in the north.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_01: So uh that that may add up to at some point maybe a little bit of pressure to to get some cattle moved.
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well, this last chart before we get to the whole Mexico fiasco, this chart here kind of portrays or paints the picture of everything that kind of got summed up in this cattle on feed report.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, this is kind of the culmination of what we've been looking for for for some time now.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: The blue spikes that you see here are overall feedlot placements from July through December.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: And the red spikes are marketings during the following six months, that is January through June of the following year.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: And you can see that there's a pretty good relationship between overall feedlot placements during the summer and fall period, and its relationship to overall marketings during the first half of the following year.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: The point is that overall feedlot placements during July through December have been moving progressively lower in recent years, and this year it looks like they're going to be record low.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_01: At least at this point, that raises the prospect that Fed cattle supplies, aside from the carryover cattle, but place to against or Fed cattle supplies January through June of next year have the potential to be record small as well.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_00: I mean it all points in the same direction, Mike.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: It logically points towards that conclusion.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_00: Now there's always a disclaimer we should just play the risk the the futures trading risk disclaimer that sometimes numbers change and the USDA likes to throw curveballs and things that we're not always right.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_00: But that's kind of seems where we're headed at right now.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_01: Well that's uh to me Jed the uh looking at the data that's certainly what the recent placement and marketing information would suggest.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: Now we know we've got a big front end supply carcass weights are heavy we've got to accommodate that front end but the point is behind those front end cattle it just doesn't look like supplies are very large.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah and at least at this point you raised our last chart here and that's Mexican feeder cattle.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: That's not going to change that tight US feeder cattle supply situation for the most part the most recent data we have would suggest that imports from Mexico were up around 10,000 head another port reopened this week that is the Columbus New Mexico port.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_01: So now we've got three ports Douglas Arizona Santa Teresa New Mexico and Columbus New Mexico and at least at this juncture uh Nogales Arizona is scheduled to reopen at the end of November if everything goes according to plan.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_01: The point is that we are slowly seeing some larger imports from Mexico.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_01: This week's data probably going to be somewhere in the area of 10 to maybe as many as 1500 come across from Mexico.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_01: But if you look back at the pre new world screw worm phenomena we'd be looking at something on the order of 25 or 3000 a week.
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_01: So obviously we are far below that with little prospect in my opinion that those numbers are going to escalate that much that quickly in that short a period of time yeah I mean it's a helpful boost in our supply no doubt but at the same time man it's not uh near enough to keep up with this you know just decrease in overall U.S.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_01: supplies that we have what's our situation with Canada and imports and exports sitting like right right now Mike well there's two things that are really keeping a lid on overall feeder cattle supplies number one USDA indicated that this year's calf crop on their mid-year estimate was almost 5000 heads smaller than a year ago now that calf crop estimate looked low relative to the size of the cow herd so I'd be inclined to fade that a little bit but by the same token it sure looks like it was smaller than a year ago.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_01: In addition to that over the last year for example we exported almost a half a million head of feeder cattle from the U.S into Canada and up through August and early September it looked like we were on about the same track.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_01: So when you combine a smaller calf crop plus exports to Canada these Mexican numbers are not going to fill that void and the bottom line is that overall feeder cattle supplies in the US will continue to be pretty constrained in the months ahead.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yep couldn't couldn't have said it better myself I know that for a fact Mike and that that that painted the picture pretty dang well.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_00: Well I think that's about all the major content that we have for today uh I talked to you last week that I have a really easy time getting these shows started but getting them stopped after you get the ball rolling down the hill it's a lot harder to stop that ball.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna try and work towards the close here what things are on your radar as we work towards our show next week and things to look ahead for well at least at this point a couple of concerns that we have to have number one it's not at all unusual to see a little bit of pressure on the beef market as we go deeper into the fall.
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_01: So there is some concern that as beef prices back off and at least moderately compared with recent numbers that it will tighten up packer operating margins and maybe result in some pairing back in terms of overall slaughter volumes.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a potential risk and in addition to that of course with some weakness in futures here in the very short run obviously started out weaker today that that's not necessarily going to be conducive to further strength at least right now as in the cash market.
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_01: So my best guess at this point would be a steady cash this week and the market futures included is going to be led by changes in the cash market.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_01: That's been true since the early part of September and I fully expect in the weeks ahead it's going to remain true.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah I mean cash is king basis doesn't matter what market you're talking about paying attention to what's actually happening in the real world is always beneficial if especially if you're a commodity broker that sits at a desk all day like myself I'm remembering that yeah it all goes back to the production system at the end of the day.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_00: Well Mike thank you as always I think this may be one of our best shows yet we'll see what Tommy thinks we might push this one to the public and let the let let the people learn a little bit but yeah once again thank you it's always a pleasure talking to you every week.
• 28:22
  SPEAKER_01: Chad it's been great to visit with you today.
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_01: Look forward to getting together again next week it's always something to talk about.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_01: Oh man there always is I'll talk to you then alright have a great week you too