Latest / Crosstabs / Oregon House Preview: Not the Year to Be Purple

Transcript

Oregon House Preview: Not the Year to Be Purple · Crosstabs

• 0:05
  [music]
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats raise as much as they need.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans raise as much as they can.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the truth in Oregon.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, so true.
• 0:30
  [music]
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: So you don't really remember Bill O'Reilly, but you remember it being on?
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: Because when did he leave Fox?
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: It was on.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: We watched Bill.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: I think we watched Bill O'Reilly and Hannity.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it was Hannity.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: It might have been Hannity O'Reilly.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: And I remember...
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: Pre the Hannity only show.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: So Hannity and Combs was on and Combs was the liberal and Hannity was
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: the conservative on the same show on Fox.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: And then I think it was O'Reilly.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm sure I have some of that mixed up.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: But before they swept Combs off and gave Hannity his own own program,
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: they were both together on and they had a right and a left and Combs was the lefty.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: And then O'Reilly would be on, I think, after that.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: Because I think O'Reilly was the later show.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Didn't Combs die?
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe that's what it was.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: But he left the show before he died.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: He left the show before he died.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm just wondering if he's still alive.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: I used to like Kennedy and Combs.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_01: I thought that was a good combination.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_02: He did die.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: 2017.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: Wow, that was a long time ago.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_02: Jeez, that's almost 10 years ago, dude.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's the problem.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: I remember everything.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: I know.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: I don't remember when I was a kid as much.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_02: It's only 66.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_02: And listen, Reagan, the closer I get to 66, the farther it doesn't feel like it's that far away.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_02: It's kind of funny how there's a... And I'm trying to...
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_02: The Rubicon was really 50 for me.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_02: Like, because I'm only 52, but...
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_02: Turning 40 wasn't that big of a deal.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_02: Turning 40 was,
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: I was just embroiled in kids and stuff and it really didn't matter to me much.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: But turning 50 was like a little bit more eye-opening.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: You're like, wow, I'm 50.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: So it feels a little old.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: And then you hear people dying at like 66 and you're like, geez, you start doing the math.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: That's 14 years from now.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_02: Makes you wonder.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_02: But I think with with Fox and then Tucker came on the scene and that was
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_02: a pretty short lived effort with Tucker because he shot up the like number one.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_01: And it is kind of funny because Jesse Waters is like, I think, number one.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: So that time slot almost matters more than the person behind the the mic.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_02: But and then Tucker and I listen to Tucker's show.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know if you listen to his podcast.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_02: He can really go into some deep holes, man.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, he has since I thought it was really good.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_02: And then,
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_02: Trump has really disappointed him and he's really gone off into like deep never,
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_02: never land.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, now he's into,
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_02: this is October 7th,
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: which was,
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: it's a really rough day,
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_01: for the nation of Israel and Jews around the world,
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_01: you know, and we remember this from three years ago.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: And now Tucker's a
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_02: total anti-Israel guy.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_02: All the stuff that swarms around, Charlie Kirk was killed
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: by the Jews.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: There's just these weird conspiracy theories that it's almost like he put on
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_01: a tinfoil hat and he hasn't ever been able to take it off yet.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: The theories are pretty crazy to me.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: I enjoy them from...
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_02: The standpoint of I'm mowing my lawn and I kind of want to hear
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_02: about like some just some random off the wall stuff.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_02: But yeah, I don't know.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Have you you haven't listened to any of this stuff?
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: I see clips whenever he says something insane.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: But at the end of the day,
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: what he discovered and maybe he did know it or maybe he didn't,
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: is that the audience is controlled by Fox.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: And Bill O'Reilly has a podcast now and I'm sure it has a it has a following and and
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: And so to just lone wolf it, that's a different kind of an audience.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: And I think what...
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: What has happened to Tucker is he's just catering to the audience that's there.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: And that audience is not as mainstream.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: It's a little more extreme.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: And so he has to be a little bit more extreme.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: And he was already, I mean, on Fox, I think he pushed the envelope pretty good.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: But sometimes they like that because the controversy can be helpful for...
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: For viewership.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: So, but then at a certain point they were like, Nope, we're good.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: Goodbye.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: I watched Fox in the morning.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_01: I don't watch, I don't really watch much news at night.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: I try to turn that part of my brain off.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: Unplug.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, exactly.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: But I do watch it in the morning.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: I usually watch more Fox business now in the morning,
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: just cause you know, I got to make sure my portfolio is doing okay.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: And, My Nvidia stock and my SpaceX, you know, which is doing really well these days.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm glad I was able to get in on that IPO.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_01: So that was good.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: Would you, the Anthropic IPO, and I use, I do use Anthropics.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: I use Claude.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_01: Claude and X are the two that I use mostly for my AI or my SI stuff now.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: Do they still call it Grok or do they?
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they have like GrokBot, XAI, like it's kind of GrokBot.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: I haven't really used a bot yet though.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: I don't really know if I wanted to turn over my email and stuff to,
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_01: you know, super intelligence yet and have my own bot.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: Same like Facebook.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: There's some people using Muse, Facebook's new AI to like do calendaring and handling.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: And that's probably a good idea, honestly.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I want to look at the Muse stuff.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_01: I think that would be pretty good.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: I heard it's really good.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: And the calendaring, Reagan,
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: would be really good for you and I because we're about the worst when it comes to
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: that for our
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: bosses.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: There is no – and I'm going to save the taxpayers a lot of money
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: if our calendaring is just a bot instead of a full person.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: Although I kind of do need – I'm going to kind of need a person come session.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll have to get that sorted out, and I'm sure you do as well.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think I have somebody dialed in for session.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: Sweet.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: I just don't, I don't know if I really want to think about session yet.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_01: The senator was like, he was texting me and he was working on something with Rep Wynn.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: I won't really say what it is, just for the sake of it not being out there.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: And then...
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: And then Senator was like, hey, have you heard anything back?
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm like, no, but I bet they're embargoing everything until after the election.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: Like anything that has to really kind of do with big changes or big policy change stuff.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: They probably,
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think leadership's on the D side probably just saying nothing until
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: after November 3rd.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_01: Like, and then we'll talk about, or you can put out press releases or letters.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: I would, I bet Easily $100.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: I won't even bet $500 that there was kind of a little memo
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: or I'm sure they wouldn't put it in memo form because that always gets leaked
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: to Dirk or Nigel.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm sure they probably said, hey, guys,
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: let's just not put out letters and stuff until after the election,
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: which is probably a good thing to do if you're leadership.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, yes and no.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: If you are,
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: and this is kind of the interesting thing,
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: is if you're one of these folks that's running in a safe seat,
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: so your chances of losing are like .001, right?
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: You live in a 30-point.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: Stats are illegally delaying the report of universal health care
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: because it costs millions of dollars.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: And so even though statute says you got to deliver your report by September 15th,
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: they were like, nope, we're good.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: We're not going to do that.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: Don't you dare do that.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: If you do that, you will kill us.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: Unforeseen delays.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: Who could have imagined government?
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: And it's like, well, weird, all these agencies could deliver their reports on time.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's just this one that was delayed.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure it's totally not related to elections.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: But at the end of the day, you don't want your swing people have to answer this.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: You don't want leadership to have to answer this.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: You don't want your governor's candidates to have to answer about your bold new idea, right?
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: So your hands are tied,
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: but at the same time,
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: they're only tied unless you like controversy and you like being hated.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: So you can go ahead and announce whatever you want,
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: but you're going to you're going to pay a price for it
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: because all your people are going to go, what is this?
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: So and I think that's an interesting like sometimes you take a strategy
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: of let's just blow some stuff up and see what happens.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: And sometimes you take the strategy of,
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: let's be collaborative and have the discussions with everybody and vet this stuff
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: and all that.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: And usually the the slow process is the one that gives you progress.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: But you get more headlines with the other.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: So it's always a choice.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that makes sense.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_01: I think that the choice.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean,
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_01: there's urging,
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: but like today they put out that one about the stuff in Eugene
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_01: and it was like Democrat leadership.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_01: So it was like I think they're going to focus any
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: of their press releases they put out just in regards
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_01: to stuff that's either happening and it'll come from leadership.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_01: But, you know,
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_01: we'll we'll ask the The people in Portland,
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_01: basically,
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: because that's all your 30 point plus districts,
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_01: which are like 20 of them, if not more.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think I should look at that.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_01: And I had that with our house races preview.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_01: So because I was going through it and you're just like Portland,
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_01: Portland, Portland, Portland, Portland.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_01: I was like,
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't even realize like how many representatives actually represent
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_01: That Portland kind of metro area.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: It's pretty insane.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_00: No, absolutely.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: If they can make every Democrat, if they can make every district Portland, they would.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: They would include Portland in every district if they can do it, I think.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_01: It wasn't that some of those congressional maps.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_01: I think Horvick put one out that showed like how Cliff Bences could be competitive.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_01: And it's like this big weave out the Columbia Gorge in town.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's 100% doable.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's just whether or not you got the courage as the map drawer or the guy who's got
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: to pass the maps.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: So are these ones in white your Battlegrounds, Bryan?
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, yes.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_01: And then red and blue, of course, I consider them to be just done.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_01: So for the sake of fun, why don't I say the red names that we know are safe?
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_01: And then you can do the blue because you'll pronounce their names better.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_01: Court voice with a rematch of Brett Cecil in House District 1.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_01: I think they've ran against each other every time now.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a shoo-in for us.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: Virgil Osborne has no opponent.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: I think he got the Democrat right in it as well.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_01: So that one's over.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_01: And then Dwayne Juncker off
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: a primary victory is now facing Susan Fisher Maquis is what I'm going
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_01: to say just sounds cooler that way.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_01: Dwayne should win that one.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: If he doesn't, that would be bad.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: Scarlatos doesn't have an opponent, so he wins House District 4.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_02: House District 6, which is Kim Wallen versus John Holm.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_02: This one, I mean,
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_02: because it's Kim Wallen,
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_01: it's not even on the table for Democrats because she's pretty well liked down there
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: in Southern Oregon.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: She usually wins everybody pretty soundly.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_01: But...
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: If you had a bad Democrat or a bad Republican year like we may be having with
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: a really good D in an open seat, that could be an interesting scenario.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: But for this time, it's solid Kim Wallen and Medford.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_01: Claire Lynn coming off of her victory to replace Boomer Wright.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: She'll easily beat John Ezra Shearman on the...
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: The kind of mid-coast, Coos Bay up to Florence and then out to Eugene area.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: Not quite to Eugene,
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_01: but it's amazing because that seat used to be pretty solid D and
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: that one is really flipped red.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_01: Now it's solid red.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: Then you have Ken Jackala replacing Jamie Cate in House District
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_02: 11 in your neck of
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_02: the woods, Reagan, against Ivan Maluski?
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_02: Yes.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_01: Who did get the Independent and Working Families endorsement.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_01: So that's kind of interesting.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_01: But that should go, I mean, based on past ones.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Linn County is pretty Republican.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_01: I think we're safe to say.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think the margin is like 20 to 30 points usually.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: It's pretty much a bloodbath.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_02: House District 12,
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_02: Darren Harbick easily will beat Amber Smith,
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_02: but in a weird district,
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_02: which only has like a 1% voter registration advantage,
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_02: but votes like 20 points to the right.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_02: Very interesting.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: And there's a few of those, too.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, you've got District 15.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, isn't it?
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_02: And then 17, House District 17, which is Ed Deal's seat.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_02: Dan Farrington won the primary there.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_02: So Dan will be the new Republican beating David Nelson, what we're choosing.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_02: And then House District 18, which is Amanda Staley coming off of a primary victory.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_02: She should.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_02: There's two people.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_02: There's a libertarian, Patrick Marnell and Roy Kaufman.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_02: Amanda only got the Republican endorsement.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_02: The rest got it.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_02: But it's I mean, this is Silverton
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: to Malala country, right?
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's pretty solid Republican territory.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: So and Amanda, she's great.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: So she's going to win that hands down.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: And that'll be a 15 to 20 point win.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_02: And she's working hard, too.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_02: So she's not going to take and usually the first time candidates,
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_02: they're fun to watch in these like 20 point, 15,
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_02: 20 point seats where they're like working really hard,
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_02: because you're like you people probably you could probably do nothing
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_02: and you'd be fine.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_02: But I think it's good to see a first time candidate work hard
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_02: because I think that's how you maintain your position
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_01: and you
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: and you don't get primaried really.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: And people get to know you.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_02: Moving on,
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_02: Anna Scharf,
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_02: House District 23, which is like Newburgh all the way down to like Polk County.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_02: Anna Scharf will win easily against Chris Wright.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_02: Leader Elmer up in McMinnville is,
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_02: you know, another one of those that little interesting of a seat.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_02: McMinnville's blue, but the rest of the area is completely red.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_02: So, but they didn't draw no Democrat opponents.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that means a victory.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_02: Darcy Edwards moving all the way up the North Coast, Columbia County.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_02: She'll win against Tom Forrest pretty easily.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_02: And she's the other half of that House
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_01: Senate District 16 seat.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: So she's the other half of the Cyrus Javity one, which we'll circle back to.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_02: And then moving over to Canby, Matt Bunch will win against Darla Meade.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_02: And then we get over to the fun part of the state.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_02: Werner Rushke wins easily against Colby Simmons.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_02: Emily McIntyre's unopposed.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_02: Greg Smith is unopposed, really.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_02: There's a Pacific Green candidate,
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_02: but Greg Smith coming off a primary that he won, and then he'll win easily.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_02: Bobby Levy beats Brian Campbell.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_02: Vicki Brice Iverson,
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_02: she'll beat Lawrence Jones for the second time, and Mark Owens against Best Bell.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_02: So that, on my map, has us at a solid 20, Reagan.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: Sweet.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's a walkout majority.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_00: Pretty close to the majority.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: So those are the easy ones.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's generally right.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think you're absolutely right.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_00: And did you count?
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just double-checking because I'm looking at this.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: Did you count Shelly in that 20?
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_02: No, yeah.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_02: No, I didn't, didn't I?
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_02: Sorry, Shelly.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, I made you blue.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_02: That's funny.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_02: Let's turn Shelly back to red.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_02: So 21.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_02: 21, then.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_02: Shelly Bosar Davis, Albany, which she is also what we were talking about.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_02: If it's not Shelly, that one could be competitive, but...
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean,
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think Albany is weird because all of Albany is represented at the local level,
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: the city council specifically.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_00: It's all blue.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's all Democrats.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_00: And Albany is a little bit odd.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_00: And I think basically all your right wingers live just outside.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_00: And it makes them winnable for Republicans.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_00: That's the Raquel Moore Green pre-redistricting, right?
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_00: And so they took that out so they could win Salem.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: And so that means they won't compete in Albany.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_00: Now, what's weird about it is the Senate map, Corvallis.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: So, Republicans start with essentially 21 seats.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's Ashland, right?
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: This seat is Ashland.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: She's winning.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: And I got to say,
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: I know this is going to, a lot of the Republicans are going to be confused by this.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: You don't realize how good we have it with Pam Marsh in that seat.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to be perfectly honest.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, she's Democrat.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, she's progressive.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_00: She's so reasonable.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: You can talk to her about stuff.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_00: She's focused.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: I'm seeing more and more focus on fixing local issues from her.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_00: And that is, it's a lot better than being wrapped up in a lot of the national stuff.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: And not that she isn't participating in that, but she's put a lot of focus.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_02: Yep.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_02: No, she has.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_00: Honestly, at the legislative level.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: And so I'm glad she's coming back.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_00: And then Lisa Fragala, District 8.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't had as much chance to work with her,
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_00: but she's definitely going to win her seat against Bill Vivian.
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_00: Vivan.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: And then District 10, David Gomberg.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: He's the Republican.
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_00: He's the Democrat.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_00: He's the Independent.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_00: He's everything in that seat.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: And so Gomberg comes back in District 10, the Speaker protest.
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_00: If I'm not mistaken, is that right, Bryan?
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_00: Do you remember?
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_00: I should know that.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: You're in the Senate.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_00: But District 13, Nancy Nathanson against Jonathan T. Abrahamison.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_00: Nathanson going to win that.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_00: District 14, Speaker Fahey against Kevin Burton.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_00: She will win that race.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_00: Sarah Finger McDonald is the Democrat and the Republican in District 16.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: So she'll win.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_00: That's a Corvallis seat.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: Funny enough, I drove by a Tom Anderson sign today.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_00: And so it has him, has a little guy on the bike icon.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_00: And then I don't know if they're stickers or what, but it says elect Tom Anderson.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_00: And then it says again, exclamation point in a little circular sticker.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: And not that he's at any risk of losing the seat to Anna Munson,
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_00: but also I'm like,
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_00: do you really want to put again on there just in case you want
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_00: to make sure everybody knows that you're the guy?
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: All right, sure.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_00: Knock yourself out.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_00: A district that – We'll pause here.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: You just had Paul Evans on the podcast and he just had an incident that we do need
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: to talk about.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: So he was he was arrested and arraigned on a DUI.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_00: It sounds like he blew a .15 hit a stop sign.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: So that was noticed by local law enforcement.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_00: And it looks like he will be doing rehab as a diversion in Arizona is what I was reading.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: Is that right, Bryan?
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I don't know.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: I guess that's a good place to go this time of year.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know, man.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: I hope he gets some help.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_01: Whatever that may be.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: So I think we're still not going to win Andrew Fudge, but that's neither here nor there.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: I see, you know, Taylor Rickey, I think always gets about 4%.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, he's ran numerous times in that district.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_01: I think he used to be.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's the libertarian candidate.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_00: Vice chair
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_02: at 1.2, I think.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_00: I know that this guy's been a problem.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: Was he trying to play in that Senate district race in 2022?
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: Was he thinking about running for that?
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: Or what am I remembering about this guy?
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: I don't remember.
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_02: Is it the Senate seat?
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_02: No, it wasn't in the Raquel Moore green seat.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_02: He's just run.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_01: He's always kind of run.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_01: I think that I was looking for this email,
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_01: but a buddy of mine is a cop who said,
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_01: if you're blowing 0.15 and Paul, of course, says he only had two.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_01: He said literally everybody he pulls over that drinks that they get for drinking and driving.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_01: If they answer, yes, have you been drinking?
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: They always say two.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_01: I just had two.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_01: He goes, it's literally like 95% of the people will say they just had two.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_01: And he goes, the blow 0.15.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: The blow 0.15.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_01: And Paul's not a small guy.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_01: He says he assumes 15 drinks over the course of six hours.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_01: Whoa.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: So...
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, when you get in, because 0.15 is pretty high for a guy that big.
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_01: So, because you, I mean, that's, you got to have...
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_01: Three an hour,
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_01: and if he was at and because they read the article,
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_01: they were kind of talking about he was at the Elks Club,
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_01: which the Elks is definitely known for pouring him a little heavy.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe he had less drinks and more heavy ones.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe he had two maybe he had two really big glasses of alcohol,
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_01: you know, so I don't know the details of it.
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_01: I just all I can know is what people were talking about.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_01: But the chatter is pretty.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_01: I think pretty dramatic on it.
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_01: Paul's had some issues with it in the past.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: And I get the PTSD thing.
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's a little bit of a lame excuse.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_01: I think, you know, I mean, I don't know.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I've been I don't think he was actually in combat.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_01: I think he was just a supply sergeant or something, you know, and I don't know.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_01: So I was in the military and I don't have any PTSD.
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_01: But I think it's just I think you just take responsibility for it.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_01: And you just say, hey, I screwed up and I know I got a problem and I'm going to go to rehab.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_01: That's just as good instead of playing PTSD.
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_01: Because I do like him.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think Paul Evans is a good guy.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_01: He brings good things to the legislature.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that having somebody with that history is not afraid to kind of take
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_01: on his party a little bit and the party leadership a little bit is important for us
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_01: to have in the legislature.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_01: So I hope he...
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean, I hope we win Republicans.
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_01: Don't get me wrong.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_01: I want us to beat every Democrat that's there.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: But in a seat like this.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_00: But if you're going to pull a seat with a Democrat.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, exactly.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: So he'll he should still win.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: We don't have the money to compete there anyways, which we'll get into.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be interesting to see if it narrows the margin at all.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_00: To a closer,
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_00: his closest race ever,
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_00: or if it, if it ends up being the same, I sort of expect it'll, it'll be the same.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_00: And then, oh, sorry, I'm reading blue.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_00: I almost started reading red.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_00: So house 25, this is obviously a swing seat with majority leader Bowman.
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, no, sorry.
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_00: This is a safe democratic seat.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_00: House sister 25, majority leader Bowman for like the third time taking on Bob.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_00: He's just an interesting guy.
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_00: Bowman picks up the Working Families Party endorsement.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah, he'll win that one.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_00: District 27, Tammy Carpenter.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_00: I think Republican.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans would like this to be competitive because she's so heavy on socialism,
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_00: but the district just doesn't allow for it at the end of the day.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, if if if G. Mark Norman makes it close, I would be happy for him.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_00: I would like I would like Oregon to reject some of these DSA goofballs.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_00: But if they're going to end up in the legislature, maybe that works for our advantage as well.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_00: Daisy Graber will win House District 28 against Randall Fryer.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_00: We've got Susan McClain against a write-in, Brian Schimmel.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_00: And is he the independent nominee for a write-in?
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_00: So independent Brian Schimmel, again,
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_00: interesting,
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_00: but typically these independent guys get even less than the Republicans do at
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_00: the end of the day because a lot of Republican voters are just suspicious
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: of independent candidates.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's not like because they're not the Democrat, they automatically fill in the box.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_00: There's a good chunk of Republicans that won't vote for a non-Republican,
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_00: and so typically – Even though the idea is good.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's just run independence.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_00: You've got to have other execution to back that up,
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: to make sure that the Republicans are organized around that and they get
• 28:22
  SPEAKER_00: the strategy and they support the candidate.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: And just because there's a guy there doesn't mean they're going to perform better
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_00: than the average Republican would.
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_00: But it'll be interesting to see how Bryan does.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: And maybe he does better.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know what his positions on issues are, but...
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_00: District 30, we're in Hillsborough area now.
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_00: Nathan Sosa against Charles Ross.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_00: Sosa will win that.
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_00: Shannon Jones, Isidore is going to win out.
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_00: District 33 against, is it Sayada Thompson?
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_00: Sayada Thompson.
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry if I'm mispronouncing that.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_00: District 34 represent Watanabe against Shawnee Cousins, so Democrats will win that.
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats will win Farah Chaichi against Dan Martin.
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_00: They'll win District 36 High Fam against Michael Orth.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_00: Jules Walters would be expected to beat Chad Parker.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: And Jules Walters, also the Independent Working Families nominee, that's District 37.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_00: And then District 38, Daniel Wynn also wins the Republican write-in.
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_00: Wynn had sort of a Democrat primary opponent,
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_00: but dispatched them pretty significant margin, if I remember correctly.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_00: District 39, which this one, we've contested this before, not contested this time.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_00: Dobson wins the Republican as a write-in and the independent nomination.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, Democratic.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, and I just think There's probably cycles in which that's a competitive race,
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_00: but it's just not on the board this time.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's for Chavez Dreamer.
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_01: I was talking to McLean a little bit about that seed,
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_01: and he has
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_02: PTSD from 2018 when he was the House Republican leader during
• 30:13
  SPEAKER_02: the first Trump midterm.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_02: That Happy Valley seed always...
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_02: Pulls okay,
• 30:23
  SPEAKER_02: but it never,
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_02: since 2010 when Patrick Sheehan won in that one big
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_01: red wave we had,
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_01: it never performs for us.
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_01: But it always looks good on a pulling for some reason.
• 30:35
  SPEAKER_01: Like everybody thinks they can win it, but it just doesn't, right?
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_01: So we've poured millions into that house seat since Sheehan had the one victory.
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_00: And Bynum, I mean, Dreamer lost by two points in 2016.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_00: And so then she signed up for it again and then ends up losing by eight
• 30:54
  SPEAKER_00: the next time around to Janelle Bynum, who was then an incumbent.
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_00: And then lost to her in Congress.
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_00: And it's just, it's, it is weird.
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to be totally honest.
• 31:07
  SPEAKER_00: It is so weird that they met up in the house race and met up in the congressional race.
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's still, um, it's just weird.
• 31:14
  SPEAKER_00: But, uh, anyway,
• 31:14
  SPEAKER_00: district 41 out Milwaukee,
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: Mark Gamba is going to defeat Elvis, uh, who now we know lives in Milwaukee.
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_00: We did suspect Elvis was alive and it appears Milwaukee, Oregon is where he's decided to be.
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, no, just kidding.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_00: That's Elvis,
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_00: Elvis Clark, uh,
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_00: District 42,
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_00: Rob Nose, no opponent, but he also didn't go get the Republican nomination.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_00: It starts to get a little toxic the closer you get to Portland, I guess.
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_00: If you're not in Clackamas, you don't want that Republican nomination.
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_00: And that's another one of those seats where I would say I would not classify Nose as
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_00: a DSA candidate,
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_00: a socialist,
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_00: but that's a seat that if he leaves,
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_00: immediately flips probably to one of those candidates would be my guess.
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_00: Tana Sanchez, House District 43 against Tim Lemaster.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_00: I believe that is a rematch from two years ago, maybe four years ago.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_00: Travis Nelson against Margo Logan.
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_00: Margo's run several times, including against Kotech when this was Kotech.
• 32:16
  SPEAKER_00: So that's fun.
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_00: Nelson will win that.
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_00: Sanchez will win hers.
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_00: District 45, Tui Tran has the Working Family, an independent.
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_00: She's running against Jason Boyce.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: She'll win.
• 32:28
  SPEAKER_00: Willie Chozen, friend of the pod, at least been on the pod.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_00: Working Families Party will win against Leo Morley for Democrats.
• 32:37
  SPEAKER_00: And then uncontested, House Sister 47, Andrea Valderrama.
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_00: We'll win District 49, Zach Hudson against Ann Walker.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 32:49
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody's afraid of Andrew Valdron.
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_01: I guess.
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_01: I don't.
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_00: Zach Hudson, winning 49 against Ann Walker.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_00: He also has Working Families endorsement.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_00: Ricky Ruiz, this is like Gresham.
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_00: He's got the independent nomination.
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_00: Will is expected to win against Bryan Gray.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_00: And then a seat that's so funny and...
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_00: District 53,
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_00: you've got Michael Summers,
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_00: the former Senate candidate out there, Redmond School Board, former chair.
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_00: This should be a competitive race, but there's no sign that it is at this point.
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_00: Um...
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_00: From my understanding, Bryan, and it's a weird seed.
• 33:36
  SPEAKER_00: It also performed very blue two years ago.
• 33:40
  SPEAKER_00: So anyway, this one just ran away from us faster than expected.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_00: And here's the thing, too.
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_00: If Republicans either run a different candidate or you don't have the same problems
• 33:51
  SPEAKER_00: that we had in 2022 with the candidate whose name I'm forgetting out there,
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_00: that doesn't mean necessarily we hold it.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: But I mean, shoot, Emerson made it blue and made it fast.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_00: Michael Smith.
• 34:03
  SPEAKER_00: Or it got blue fast and she benefits from it either way.
• 34:06
  SPEAKER_00: Sipe, that's right.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_01: it's a I think what happened is it's redistricting.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they gerrymandered it just enough, right?
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_01: Like it's got enough of Bend in there that just makes it look like it's closer with
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_01: the voter registration numbers.
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_01: But all those non-affiliated that live in the West Hills of Bend, you know, they vote blue.
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_01: They just do.
• 34:34
  SPEAKER_01: And there's really, you can look at those precincts and it's just getting bluer and bluer.
• 34:40
  SPEAKER_01: And Ben, I mean,
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_01: Jason Krupp could, I mean,
• 34:42
  SPEAKER_01: he might challenge some of those North Portland districts for
• 34:45
  SPEAKER_01: the most Democrat votes.
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_01: So it's just wild.
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_00: No, 100%.
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_00: 100%.
• 34:52
  SPEAKER_00: And yes, Krupp is the last seat there.
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_01: I was talking to McLean about this too,
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_01: because didn't,
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think, I mean, Sherry Hilt lost the seed in 2020, Jason Krupp's seed.
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_01: So this tells you how fast.
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_01: Jack Zika had 53 as a Republican.
• 35:11
  SPEAKER_01: And then Sherry Helt won it in 2018.
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_01: A little bit of a snafu with the Democrats because they had probably
• 35:18
  SPEAKER_01: the worst candidate in the world.
• 35:19
  SPEAKER_01: But regardless, Sherry Helt wins.
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_01: And then, you know, she got the floor wiped with her in 2020 just because it really did move.
• 35:29
  SPEAKER_01: But it tells you it was a pretty solid.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_01: Newt Buehler had it in 2016.
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_01: It was a pretty solid, you know, seat.
• 35:35
  SPEAKER_01: You know, you had to be Somewhat moderate, right?
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, but it was a pretty decent battleground seed and now it's just
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_01: a 25 point blue winner at minimum.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's right.
• 35:50
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_01: Well, so that gives them.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 35:53
  SPEAKER_01: Did I math right?
• 35:54
  SPEAKER_01: That's 31.
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_01: 31.
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 35:58
  SPEAKER_01: So majority is over.
• 35:59
  SPEAKER_01: So I guess that's it.
• 36:00
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go home.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: Hold on.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: Our numbers are off here because eight battleground seats doesn't give us 60, does it?
• 36:08
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it does.
• 36:08
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, no, it does.
• 36:09
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_00: I can do math, Bryan.
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_00: I can't actually, but that's why I'm in politics.
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_00: You're a homeschooler.
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_00: I was always a little better in the English.
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, so then our competitive seats.
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_00: Springfield, District 7.
• 36:27
  SPEAKER_00: You got Corey Rodley versus Adam Wilson.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_00: Do we think that Republicans make up ground here?
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe not win, but is it closer?
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_00: No.
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_00: Next.
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 36:44
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just kidding.
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_00: Do you think that's a product of the national environment,
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_00: or do you think that would be a product of something else?
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_00: Is this seat ever going to get closer for Republicans?
• 36:57
  SPEAKER_00: No.
• 36:57
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's got to be a product of the national environment
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_01: because we were competitive in the seed in 22 against Lively,
• 37:06
  SPEAKER_01: who would be considered a kind of a moderate D.
• 37:10
  SPEAKER_01: And so we only lost it by, I think, 2%.
• 37:14
  SPEAKER_01: So I would think now I bet the polling on this one's probably plus 10 D, I bet.
• 37:22
  SPEAKER_01: And these sort of people in Springfield,
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think they're blue collar,
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_01: folks that used to work in the woods, that sort of stuff.
• 37:34
  SPEAKER_01: There's some neighborhoods now,
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_01: but regardless,
• 37:37
  SPEAKER_01: I would say slightly lower income,
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_01: blue collar,
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_01: I would think that they would be the Trump supporters,
• 37:45
  SPEAKER_01: but they're probably part of that coalition that's kind of fell apart
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_01: with $7 Diesel.
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_01: I just don't think it's competitive anymore.
• 37:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's a cheap seat for us to go after compared to some of these other ones
• 37:57
  SPEAKER_01: that we'll talk about.
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_01: So I would have tried to make it competitive and paint Corey into a corner.
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_01: But, you know, Adam Wilson's only raised 60 grand and he's only got 16K.
• 38:08
  SPEAKER_01: And I think the D's can put...
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_01: they put 200 into Corey Rodley,
• 38:14
  SPEAKER_01: but I bet they're not seeing much movement in their polling.
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_01: So they're probably fine with as long as the Republicans don't do anything.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_01: I don't see how it really changes.
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_01: But Adam Wilson is a good guy.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_01: I like him.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's a good candidate.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, he's fine.
• 38:33
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe he'll run again if the environment gets better next time.
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_01: You never know.
• 38:37
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 38:37
  SPEAKER_00: I think generally,
• 38:39
  SPEAKER_00: especially in some of these tougher seats,
• 38:40
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not opposed to these candidates running a couple of times to sort of give that
• 38:45
  SPEAKER_00: as a cheat to build up their name ID when you don't have money to do that.
• 38:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_00: I think that that can make some sense in a lot of ways.
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm going to put this one
• 38:55
  SPEAKER_01: as a lean blue.
• 38:57
  SPEAKER_01: How about that?
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_00: I would say lean.
• 39:00
  SPEAKER_00: If I was going to say I would go lean Democrat.
• 39:02
  SPEAKER_00: The only reason I have any hesitation and I wouldn't put it in the likely
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_00: or safe is just because it's an open seat now.
• 39:10
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_00: So there's that little bit of potential for, you know, voters to go.
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure.
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, fair.
• 39:19
  SPEAKER_01: And Corey was on city council,
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_01: but hopefully Adam spins it into something else because the Alan Stout
• 39:25
  SPEAKER_01: that ran there before, he's now on city council
• 39:30
  SPEAKER_02: in Springfield.
• 39:30
  SPEAKER_02: So I think we've got some good voices there.
• 39:33
  SPEAKER_02: And so if we can kind of,
• 39:35
  SPEAKER_02: like you said,
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_01: sometimes take these competitive races and you can springboard it
• 39:39
  SPEAKER_01: into some other stuff and stay active.
• 39:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 39:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 39:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, good for him.
• 39:45
  SPEAKER_00: Good for Alan.
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_00: District 21, Kevin Mannitz against Democrat Michael Welsh.
• 39:53
  SPEAKER_00: Funny enough, even in Albany, I'm getting some of Michael Welsh's digital ads against Mannix.
• 40:00
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know if they just pick up that I go into the Capitol sometimes
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_00: and that's why I get them or what.
• 40:07
  SPEAKER_00: So you've got – You know, Manix a little over 400 and Welsh a little over 200 raised.
• 40:16
  SPEAKER_00: Is that raised?
• 40:17
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, raised and then cash on hand.
• 40:19
  SPEAKER_01: So they're both broke.
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_02: I'd expect them.
• 40:25
  SPEAKER_01: This one I've heard is is I heard there was a bad poll for Manix.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um.
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_01: Probably in the environment kind of stuff.
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if Michael Welch is the best of candidates for them, for the D side of it.
• 40:41
  SPEAKER_01: I never count against Kevin Mannix.
• 40:43
  SPEAKER_01: I think Kevin has got
• 40:48
  SPEAKER_01: insanely keen sense of politics that a lot of people just don't have.
• 40:55
  SPEAKER_01: And Kevin is...
• 40:59
  SPEAKER_01: Always been great at walking like anybody who wants to be pro-life as a Republican,
• 41:04
  SPEAKER_01: but also finds a way to be considered moderate.
• 41:07
  SPEAKER_01: Kevin Mannix is your guy.
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_01: Like, you know,
• 41:10
  SPEAKER_01: that's I think he's always been able to walk that that line pretty well,
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_01: where he makes his conservative base really happy with him.
• 41:18
  SPEAKER_01: But at the same time, he can find common ground with with Democrats and independents.
• 41:24
  SPEAKER_01: And so.
• 41:26
  SPEAKER_01: I would say this still leans are.
• 41:28
  SPEAKER_01: I think Kevin's name ID is inherent.
• 41:30
  SPEAKER_01: Name ID is still pretty strong.
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_01: But if we see a ton of money dumped into this thing by Democrats at the end,
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_01: the only thing that could hurt him is if Senate D's pour a ton of money into
• 41:45
  SPEAKER_01: that Kramer race with Virginia Stapleton, I think Kevin might get
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_01: You know, caught up into the get out the vote effort, right?
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's where I see that that would be a flank that you can't really guard against.
• 42:03
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see.
• 42:04
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, same consultant for Mannix and Kramer.
• 42:07
  SPEAKER_01: So hopefully there's some coordination happening.
• 42:10
  SPEAKER_01: But how do you feel?
• 42:12
  SPEAKER_01: Lean red?
• 42:13
  SPEAKER_01: Do you feel?
• 42:14
  SPEAKER_01: Toss up?
• 42:15
  SPEAKER_01: True toss up at this point?
• 42:17
  SPEAKER_00: Where are you at?
• 42:19
  SPEAKER_00: I put it like tilt Republican.
• 42:23
  SPEAKER_00: So normally I would put Leonard's like pink, like very light pink.
• 42:28
  SPEAKER_00: Normally, yeah, that's like, like, like you said, you don't bet against Kevin Mannix in Salem.
• 42:36
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that, At the end of the day, he can definitely close it.
• 42:39
  SPEAKER_00: It might get more expensive than you want it to.
• 42:42
  SPEAKER_00: But again,
• 42:42
  SPEAKER_00: because of the Democratic leaning national environment we're expecting,
• 42:46
  SPEAKER_00: that's to be expected in this kind of seat.
• 42:50
  SPEAKER_00: And you really worry about the minute Mannix leaves the seat if you're the Republicans.
• 42:55
  SPEAKER_00: So that becomes a problem pretty fast.
• 42:58
  SPEAKER_00: Sure does.
• 42:59
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, hopefully Kevin is trying to bring some people up.
• 43:03
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Kaiser always tends to go a little bit right of center, so that part's helpful.
• 43:11
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, it's got some interesting things to it.
• 43:14
  SPEAKER_01: This one could get pretty spendy.
• 43:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, if other seats are solid in certain ways, then I think this one could get spendy.
• 43:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 43:27
  SPEAKER_00: District 22, Leslie Munoz versus Naomi Legispi.
• 43:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so you have Tracy Kramer's old seat, Munoz,
• 43:38
  SPEAKER_01: who won with ballot harvesting at the end last time,
• 43:41
  SPEAKER_01: whose sister took out Senate Democrat in a primary.
• 43:47
  SPEAKER_01: So this would be, I think would be the, because I know when Shelly and Her sister were running.
• 43:53
  SPEAKER_01: They were going to be the only, her sister was running in a race in 20.
• 43:59
  SPEAKER_01: And I remember her saying that they would be the first sisters to be in the legislature.
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_01: So the Munoz sisters would actually be the first if Leslie pulls off a victory again.
• 44:12
  SPEAKER_01: You know, man, I don't know about this one.
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_01: I think Noemi has had some challenges as a candidate from what I've heard.
• 44:22
  SPEAKER_01: I've met her.
• 44:23
  SPEAKER_01: I, you know, to be honest to the audience, I was not impressed.
• 44:29
  SPEAKER_01: Munoz is,
• 44:30
  SPEAKER_01: I think she knows how to lean on leadership and make sure
• 44:35
  SPEAKER_01: that they give her whatever she thinks she needs to win.
• 44:38
  SPEAKER_01: And I just think in this Trump environment,
• 44:41
  SPEAKER_01: the ICE stuff,
• 44:42
  SPEAKER_01: and you got really the district that has the most population,
• 44:47
  SPEAKER_01: but least percent of them registered the vote in the state by like a large margin.
• 44:53
  SPEAKER_01: So that means you have a very large Hispanic community,
• 44:56
  SPEAKER_01: even though both of these people are Hispanic.
• 44:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think Munoz,
• 45:01
  SPEAKER_01: I would imagine they're going to put a large ballot harvesting effort behind her
• 45:05
  SPEAKER_01: in this district.
• 45:07
  SPEAKER_01: And I give this one a lean blue.
• 45:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think it's it's just it's tough, I think.
• 45:16
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think if you had like,
• 45:17
  SPEAKER_00: for instance,
• 45:19
  SPEAKER_00: if you didn't have to run a brand new candidate as Republicans,
• 45:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think you'd like that better.
• 45:24
  SPEAKER_00: But Naomi has to build up for And then win swing voters.
• 45:29
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that just it just ends up being more work and ends up being more expensive.
• 45:33
  SPEAKER_00: You also don't currently have Munoz out raising Legespy,
• 45:38
  SPEAKER_00: which sort of tells me Democrats aren't afraid of.
• 45:41
  SPEAKER_00: At the current moment,
• 45:43
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think like you said,
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think that stops them from putting effort into the ballot harvesting.
• 45:48
  SPEAKER_00: But that ballot harvesting effort is going to be more aimed at trying to flip
• 45:52
  SPEAKER_00: the Senate than it is.
• 45:54
  SPEAKER_00: And it just sort of benefits Munoz on the back end.
• 45:57
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 45:59
  SPEAKER_00: And it'll be it'll be against Mannix and Kramer.
• 46:01
  SPEAKER_00: Not at I think not as much.
• 46:02
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, certainly if Democrats, you like the synergy of all of that.
• 46:07
  SPEAKER_00: And if Republicans can build up some of the same synergies,
• 46:09
  SPEAKER_00: then you do get some efficiency for your dollars there.
• 46:12
  SPEAKER_00: But have you seen anything from Bring Balance into this district?
• 46:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they've given some and they're in-kindings.
• 46:23
  SPEAKER_01: The Elon Musk paid doorknockers.
• 46:26
  SPEAKER_01: Whatever that means.
• 46:30
  SPEAKER_01: They're just a firm out of Colorado that they've hired.
• 46:33
  SPEAKER_00: Just to clarify...
• 46:36
  SPEAKER_00: I was going to say, just to clarify, same firm that Elon used.
• 46:39
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think Elon's paying for it.
• 46:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think maybe we'd be fine with Elon paying for it, but I don't think he's offering.
• 46:45
  SPEAKER_01: That'd be great if he wants to offer.
• 46:47
  SPEAKER_01: I think... Yeah.
• 46:49
  SPEAKER_00: If I had to guess, Link...
• 46:52
  SPEAKER_00: If I had to guess lean Democrat, I haven't seen any of the polling.
• 46:56
  SPEAKER_00: I do like that we have more money than Democrats in this race, but also that's pretty rare.
• 47:00
  SPEAKER_00: So I think for a challenger seat.
• 47:04
  SPEAKER_00: So that tells me either Democrats have already given up on this race or they're ahead.
• 47:09
  SPEAKER_00: There's no in between there.
• 47:11
  SPEAKER_00: And I would doubt they've given up on it.
• 47:13
  SPEAKER_00: They typically don't give up on seats.
• 47:16
  SPEAKER_01: Not for incumbents.
• 47:17
  SPEAKER_01: You know that.
• 47:17
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Leader Bowman is not going to let his incumbents lose.
• 47:22
  SPEAKER_01: That's usually the first charge for Democrats and Republican leaders is
• 47:27
  SPEAKER_01: to not let your incumbents lose.
• 47:30
  SPEAKER_01: So that's usually your hierarchy where you spend your money.
• 47:35
  SPEAKER_01: It's always with your incumbents.
• 47:36
  SPEAKER_01: So that's why I guess I even lean with Mannix because I think,
• 47:41
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 47:42
  SPEAKER_01: Leader Elmer is going to have to Pour more money into Mannix's race than Noemi,
• 47:50
  SPEAKER_01: given the two to choose from with whatever money she has to work with.
• 47:55
  SPEAKER_01: So you're just always going to do that, right?
• 47:58
  SPEAKER_01: So it's just the nature of it.
• 48:00
  SPEAKER_01: So I think the problem that I have here is I think Bring Balance is done spending money.
• 48:06
  SPEAKER_01: So and the Democrats have money and they can pour from
• 48:11
  SPEAKER_01: that carpenter's money like there was just another 250 allocated out
• 48:16
  SPEAKER_01: and they have they have given future PAC money.
• 48:18
  SPEAKER_01: They're still sitting on like nine and a half million in that PAC.
• 48:23
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it's like build a better Oregon or something like that.
• 48:26
  SPEAKER_01: So, uh, it was what they're using it as.
• 48:28
  SPEAKER_01: So people can go look it up, but they have $9 million sitting in there.
• 48:32
  SPEAKER_01: So I think the ability to spend money in this race is they can,
• 48:36
  SPEAKER_01: they have whatever they want, whatever they need.
• 48:38
  SPEAKER_01: I should say not want if wants are,
• 48:40
  SPEAKER_01: then every candidate would have like a million,
• 48:42
  SPEAKER_01: $2 million because they all want you spending more.
• 48:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 48:47
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 48:48
  SPEAKER_01: Moving on.
• 48:49
  SPEAKER_00: A good friend that we both know,
• 48:51
  SPEAKER_00: and I didn't check about giving him credit for this, so I won't use his name yet.
• 48:57
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats raise as much as they need.
• 48:59
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans raise as much as they can.
• 49:02
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the truth in Oregon.
• 49:05
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, so true.
• 49:07
  SPEAKER_01: I'll reuse that quote later.
• 49:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 49:09
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 49:10
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, it's a good one.
• 49:12
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 49:13
  SPEAKER_00: You have Sue Reike-Smith in House District 26 as a swing seat.
• 49:17
  SPEAKER_00: I don't agree with that at all, Bryan.
• 49:19
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 49:20
  SPEAKER_00: Is this close?
• 49:21
  SPEAKER_00: No.
• 49:22
  SPEAKER_01: Is there any?
• 49:22
  SPEAKER_01: I just wanted to talk about it.
• 49:24
  SPEAKER_01: I'll put it in
• 49:25
  SPEAKER_00: a solid.
• 49:25
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 49:28
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what I've heard.
• 49:29
  SPEAKER_00: I've heard Stephanie Karkin's a great candidate.
• 49:32
  SPEAKER_00: I see she's raising money.
• 49:33
  SPEAKER_00: She's raised $150,000.
• 49:34
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm guessing none of that is from massive donors in the sense that this is
• 49:39
  SPEAKER_00: a competitive seat.
• 49:40
  SPEAKER_00: Huge, huge.
• 49:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's awesome.
• 49:43
  SPEAKER_00: But basically everything I hear is,
• 49:44
  SPEAKER_00: man, if we actually had her in a swing seat, that would be amazing.
• 49:49
  SPEAKER_00: And she's still going to get beat here.
• 49:51
  SPEAKER_00: So that's the reason I say that.
• 49:53
  SPEAKER_00: I think what I hear is Stephanie's running.
• 49:56
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 49:56
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 49:56
  SPEAKER_01: I moved our number to 32 now for blue.
• 50:03
  SPEAKER_01: I'm with you.
• 50:05
  SPEAKER_01: I've been around her a decent number of times and you're right.
• 50:08
  SPEAKER_01: You couldn't ask for somebody better to run.
• 50:11
  SPEAKER_01: I think this is like I hate to say it to Carrie, but she's the Carrie Lopez of 2026.
• 50:19
  SPEAKER_01: Carrie ran great against Emerson in 24,
• 50:22
  SPEAKER_01: but raised a lot of money herself,
• 50:25
  SPEAKER_01: great candidate on paper, did all the work, but just can't get over that hump in 26.
• 50:32
  SPEAKER_01: Wilsonville is the home of the woke white women, and I just don't know If you can win there.
• 50:40
  SPEAKER_01: But there is a third-party candidate, which I thought was kind of interesting.
• 50:44
  SPEAKER_01: So Progressive, Pacific Green.
• 50:48
  SPEAKER_02: I do think that that was the only reason why I thought it was kind of interesting
• 50:53
  SPEAKER_02: because how far,
• 50:55
  SPEAKER_02: if that Steph Terrio person was really running DSA messaging
• 51:00
  SPEAKER_02: that really peeled maybe from a Susan Reiki-Smith, I mean,
• 51:05
  SPEAKER_02: I think there would be,
• 51:07
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 51:07
  SPEAKER_02: if you could peel five or six points out of the D,
• 51:11
  SPEAKER_02: then it becomes pretty interesting.
• 51:14
  SPEAKER_01: But it doesn't appear, again,
• 51:16
  SPEAKER_01: based on the funding that we're seeing,
• 51:19
  SPEAKER_01: that Democrats seem to have a problem, right?
• 51:22
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, going back to your same, only 180K raised by Susan Reiki-Smith.
• 51:27
  SPEAKER_01: Also, that's pretty low for an incumbent.
• 51:30
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I mean, that's new.
• 51:33
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you would think that the D lobby would be dumping a few more bucks into her camp, but...
• 51:40
  SPEAKER_00: I know that they really like her and even businesses is generally
• 51:43
  SPEAKER_00: the business lobby is generally a fan of her as well.
• 51:45
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why.
• 51:47
  SPEAKER_00: But again,
• 51:47
  SPEAKER_00: I think people are going to prioritize dollars and they don't see this
• 51:51
  SPEAKER_00: as competitive.
• 51:52
  SPEAKER_00: So that does work against her if it's not even close.
• 51:56
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 51:57
  SPEAKER_00: So that would be an indication the polling isn't close if she can't raise money
• 52:00
  SPEAKER_00: at least not not as much.
• 52:03
  SPEAKER_01: And we've seen how this thing's performed like it just doesn't.
• 52:07
  SPEAKER_01: It's a 8 to 12 point.
• 52:11
  SPEAKER_01: Loss for us.
• 52:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's not that it's not it's not that it's not doesn't look competitive,
• 52:18
  SPEAKER_00: but it's so it's such an inflexible margin.
• 52:21
  SPEAKER_00: It just seems that there aren't voters to move out here.
• 52:24
  SPEAKER_00: The people who live out there know what they think.
• 52:27
  SPEAKER_00: They know who they're voting for.
• 52:28
  SPEAKER_00: They don't change their minds.
• 52:29
  SPEAKER_00: They don't flip party.
• 52:31
  SPEAKER_00: They're right now with the current alignment of the Republican Party.
• 52:35
  SPEAKER_00: It's not a suburban party.
• 52:37
  SPEAKER_00: And this is a very suburban district.
• 52:39
  SPEAKER_00: And so it just it becomes extremely challenging to win.
• 52:42
  SPEAKER_01: I agree.
• 52:45
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 52:46
  SPEAKER_00: So I put that one solid blue.
• 52:49
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 52:49
  SPEAKER_00: So that gives Democrats 32 seats.
• 52:51
  SPEAKER_00: Cyrus Javity versus Max Sherman, the district.
• 52:55
  SPEAKER_00: People will be watching on election night.
• 52:59
  SPEAKER_00: Big questions to answer.
• 53:01
  SPEAKER_00: How good is the Max Sherman campaign?
• 53:04
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, They switched consultants partway through.
• 53:08
  SPEAKER_00: You don't necessarily love changing personnel up late,
• 53:12
  SPEAKER_00: even if the folks that were there weren't doing what leadership
• 53:15
  SPEAKER_00: or whoever wanted them to do.
• 53:17
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know the circumstances.
• 53:18
  SPEAKER_00: I just know what happened.
• 53:20
  SPEAKER_00: Do you have any big questions to answer?
• 53:23
  SPEAKER_00: Can you successfully flip parties and win?
• 53:27
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know the last time that was actually done successfully.
• 53:30
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe Ben Westland?
• 53:33
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, flip parties and hold your district.
• 53:37
  SPEAKER_00: So and an old one out of your head.
• 53:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I got to go back and look.
• 53:42
  SPEAKER_00: But I think Westland flipped and he represented some version of 53, 54 in Central Oregon.
• 53:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 53:50
  SPEAKER_00: But I can't remember if he flipped after he won and then ran statewide.
• 53:55
  SPEAKER_01: Did he flip or did he just go to independent?
• 53:57
  SPEAKER_01: I think he just went to independent.
• 53:59
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he eventually flipped a Democrat because he was treasurer.
• 54:01
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, that's right.
• 54:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's right.
• 54:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 54:03
  SPEAKER_00: At first he went to the Senate, though.
• 54:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's what I'm going to look right now.
• 54:07
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm pulling it up.
• 54:08
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah.
• 54:08
  SPEAKER_00: So and then before that, it was Bob Jensen when Republicans controlled the legislature.
• 54:12
  SPEAKER_00: But Bob Jensen was in Eastern Oregon.
• 54:14
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know that he had any business being elected as a Democrat out there.
• 54:18
  SPEAKER_00: And he switched.
• 54:19
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 54:20
  SPEAKER_00: And I would say Cyrus Javity,
• 54:22
  SPEAKER_01: not only did he just become a he didn't even become a moderate Democrat
• 54:26
  SPEAKER_01: that you would call like a Dobson or an Emerson Levy.
• 54:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like he went full on left wing.
• 54:33
  SPEAKER_01: So I.
• 54:34
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 54:34
  SPEAKER_01: That's.
• 54:35
  SPEAKER_02: That's very I and Cyrus is a very smart guy.
• 54:41
  SPEAKER_01: I wonder if he's on some weird level when he switched parties, he's like, you know what?
• 54:47
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just going to do like a science experiment and just see like if I just went from
• 54:53
  SPEAKER_01: a pro-life Republican to a pro-choice,
• 54:57
  SPEAKER_01: hard left on the border of DSA Democrat, I would say, could I still win?
• 55:05
  SPEAKER_01: He's got the right year to try it, right?
• 55:07
  SPEAKER_01: He got the right cycle to try it in a pro...
• 55:10
  SPEAKER_01: And a Trump second term pro-Democrat wave, or at least what people are talking about.
• 55:16
  SPEAKER_01: The question really here is going to be,
• 55:19
  SPEAKER_01: is Tillamook and Clatsop County,
• 55:21
  SPEAKER_01: the non-affiliateds,
• 55:23
  SPEAKER_01: are they really angry with Trump enough to stay home, to not vote?
• 55:29
  SPEAKER_01: Because Trump won this district.
• 55:33
  SPEAKER_01: It does lean a little blue.
• 55:36
  SPEAKER_01: I just wonder is, you know, I don't think it's Max Sherman.
• 55:40
  SPEAKER_01: I don't believe factors into this race, to be honest with you.
• 55:45
  SPEAKER_01: It's whether or not Cyrus Javity's negatives are so high
• 55:49
  SPEAKER_01: that he can't overcome those negatives and people just vote against Javity
• 55:55
  SPEAKER_01: or they vote for Javity.
• 55:56
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's literally what this race is about.
• 55:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 55:59
  SPEAKER_01: And I think if the Republicans spend money in this race like they spent
• 56:04
  SPEAKER_01: to get Suzanne elected in 2020 for the first time they flipped this district,
• 56:11
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think I think it's I think it's necessarily a waste of money.
• 56:15
  SPEAKER_01: I think this one's probably going to come down to turnout.
• 56:18
  SPEAKER_01: And and I would focus more on the turnout of the people who hate Javity than trying
• 56:23
  SPEAKER_01: to persuade people, because I think.
• 56:26
  SPEAKER_01: It's the only one where I think his name ID is probably pretty dang high.
• 56:33
  SPEAKER_01: It's probably up there with the governor candidates because he's kind of been
• 56:36
  SPEAKER_01: the face of the gas tax stuff, the switching parties.
• 56:40
  SPEAKER_01: You can't live in Tillamook and not know or have not heard of Cyrus Javid.
• 56:45
  SPEAKER_01: At this point.
• 56:46
  SPEAKER_01: Correct.
• 56:47
  SPEAKER_01: So I just this one is going to be like you said,
• 56:51
  SPEAKER_01: all eyes are going to be watching this one and one other race.
• 56:53
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 56:54
  SPEAKER_00: But so Ben Westland, here it is.
• 56:57
  SPEAKER_00: He is elected in 2004 as the state senator from District 27.
• 57:02
  SPEAKER_00: He doesn't even have a Democrat opponent.
• 57:05
  SPEAKER_00: He switches in February of 2006 to independent.
• 57:10
  SPEAKER_00: And I had forgotten about this, flirted with an independent campaign for governor.
• 57:16
  SPEAKER_00: So he was he was he was out there paving the way for Betsy Johnson and
• 57:21
  SPEAKER_00: then decides it at the end of the year to flip to Democrat, December 12th, 2006.
• 57:27
  SPEAKER_00: And that sets
• 57:30
  SPEAKER_00: He wins 51-45 against Allie.
• 57:32
  SPEAKER_00: And Allie had a Constitution candidate named Michael Marsh take 3% of the vote away from him.
• 57:35
  SPEAKER_00: Again, so many things that have gone wrong historically for Republicans.
• 57:37
  SPEAKER_00: Senate District 27 becomes Chris Telfer, and then your dad takes her out in 2012.
• 57:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's right.
• 57:59
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 58:01
  SPEAKER_00: So Bob Jensen was the last guy to switch parties and win.
• 58:04
  SPEAKER_00: So in 96, he runs as a Democrat.
• 58:07
  SPEAKER_00: He wins an open seat that was vacated by,
• 58:11
  SPEAKER_00: if you would believe it, a Republican named Chuck Norris.
• 58:14
  SPEAKER_00: Awesome.
• 58:18
  SPEAKER_00: So in 98,
• 58:19
  SPEAKER_00: he changes to independent because he left the Democratic Party
• 58:24
  SPEAKER_00: over extreme environmental positions.
• 58:25
  SPEAKER_00: He wins as an independent in 1998.
• 58:28
  SPEAKER_00: And then in 2000,
• 58:30
  SPEAKER_00: he switches,
• 58:31
  SPEAKER_00: either 99 or 2000, he switches Republican and runs and wins as a Republican.
• 58:36
  SPEAKER_00: And so that evolution is the one.
• 58:38
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Javity doesn't necessarily have to switch to independent.
• 58:41
  SPEAKER_00: But like you said, he went basically from being independent A Republican, a normal Republican.
• 58:49
  SPEAKER_00: There were ads that were run against him two years ago saying he was a right-wing nutjob.
• 58:54
  SPEAKER_00: Literally.
• 58:55
  SPEAKER_00: The Democrats have run ads saying he was a right-wing MAGA Republican.
• 59:01
  SPEAKER_00: And so he doesn't evolve into a moderate, really.
• 59:04
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, he sort of does in the session, but not in the electoral sense of running his ads.
• 59:09
  SPEAKER_00: He's not running Susan Collins-style moderate ads, right?
• 59:13
  SPEAKER_00: He flips to a hard left.
• 59:14
  SPEAKER_00: And the question is, can you survive the switch all the way around?
• 59:21
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know if he can.
• 59:23
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think he can.
• 59:24
  SPEAKER_00: But maybe he can.
• 59:26
  SPEAKER_00: I would set this race as a true toss-up, though.
• 59:29
  SPEAKER_01: Reagan, I'm literally just going to agree with you on that.
• 59:31
  SPEAKER_01: That's a true purple.
• 59:33
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, great.
• 59:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, true tossing.
• 59:36
  SPEAKER_01: And I've heard the polling on it's been really close.
• 59:39
  SPEAKER_01: And that's where I've heard his negatives are still pretty high, mostly with Republicans.
• 59:44
  SPEAKER_01: But the Democrats, I was looking at his undervote in the primary.
• 59:47
  SPEAKER_01: I thought maybe you see our Dems upset at him or do they not trust him?
• 59:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think they're in love with him.
• 59:53
  SPEAKER_01: They love people that get blue-pilled, right?
• 59:56
  SPEAKER_01: So they think it's great coming to the dark side.
• 1:00:00
  SPEAKER_01: And we tend to do that too, right?
• 1:00:01
  SPEAKER_01: I mean...
• 1:00:03
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's the guy in the Senate that beat Jamie Cade.
• 1:00:07
  SPEAKER_01: He was a Democrat and he said he got red-pilled.
• 1:00:11
  SPEAKER_01: And the Republicans love that enough to move him forward in a primary.
• 1:00:16
  SPEAKER_01: So there might be something to that that gets you to win.
• 1:00:20
  SPEAKER_01: And in a Trump second term, midterm, that makes it a really tough situation.
• 1:00:25
  SPEAKER_01: Battle for Max Sherman.
• 1:00:26
  SPEAKER_01: But I mean, that dude's been around there forever.
• 1:00:28
  SPEAKER_01: I was just at a fundraiser that Senator Anderson and I threw for him and tried
• 1:00:34
  SPEAKER_01: to raise some money for him and stuff.
• 1:00:35
  SPEAKER_01: So we're on the coast there because I really want to keep this seat.
• 1:00:39
  SPEAKER_01: Red, and it really doesn't have anything to do with Javity.
• 1:00:42
  SPEAKER_01: It just has to do with the fact that we finally turned this one red, the coast, in 2020.
• 1:00:51
  SPEAKER_01: We moved a lot of seats in 2020,
• 1:00:53
  SPEAKER_01: and this was one of them, and I hate to give it back to Democrats.
• 1:00:58
  SPEAKER_01: True toss-up, House District 40.
• 1:01:01
  SPEAKER_01: Adam Baker running.
• 1:01:03
  SPEAKER_01: House District 40.
• 1:01:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:01:06
  SPEAKER_00: Against Michael Sugar, this race just makes me hungry.
• 1:01:09
  SPEAKER_00: You've got Baker, you've got Sugar.
• 1:01:11
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to need a snack after this.
• 1:01:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, right.
• 1:01:17
  SPEAKER_01: I think Adam's a good friend.
• 1:01:20
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:01:21
  SPEAKER_01: Ran in 2022, lost by only 181 votes, which was a bummer for us to Anessa Hartman.
• 1:01:28
  SPEAKER_01: She governed as a fairly decent moderate.
• 1:01:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:01:32
  SPEAKER_01: But there's a third party candidate.
• 1:01:33
  SPEAKER_01: I'm, you know, I mean,
• 1:01:35
  SPEAKER_01: there are our polling and we all because I could talk about it because I'm working
• 1:01:40
  SPEAKER_01: with Adam on this race.
• 1:01:42
  SPEAKER_01: But it is it is does not look like it looked in twenty twenty two.
• 1:01:48
  SPEAKER_01: It does it look more like twenty twenty four, Bryan?
• 1:01:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's kind of looking like 2024,
• 1:01:56
  SPEAKER_01: which means given the numbers, like you're looking at a 54-46, 55-45.
• 1:02:03
  SPEAKER_01: Drazen looks good in this district, though.
• 1:02:05
  SPEAKER_02: She was up by a point or two, kind of what we're seeing with national stuff or statewide stuff.
• 1:02:12
  SPEAKER_01: So I think the ability for us to...
• 1:02:17
  SPEAKER_01: Win is only solely on the ability for people to peel off to
• 1:02:22
  SPEAKER_01: the independent candidate that are Democrats that can't vote for a Republican
• 1:02:26
  SPEAKER_01: and somehow add them to draft behind a Drazen victory.
• 1:02:33
  SPEAKER_01: But based on the spending, the Ds, they are sending mail.
• 1:02:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, most of that $193K is mail that I've seen go into the district.
• 1:02:42
  SPEAKER_01: So...
• 1:02:45
  SPEAKER_01: I know they're spending, but they're probably not super concerned about it.
• 1:02:48
  SPEAKER_01: And clearly the Republicans, they don't believe it's a victory that they can have.
• 1:02:54
  SPEAKER_01: And probably partly because of the 24 numbers, 2024.
• 1:03:00
  SPEAKER_01: If you're looking at those numbers, it's going to be a tough one for us.
• 1:03:07
  SPEAKER_01: I could probably even declare this one for the Republicans.
• 1:03:10
  SPEAKER_01: Not like we're not going to work hard at it and try to come to a victory,
• 1:03:13
  SPEAKER_01: but we got no cash and I don't see any new cash coming.
• 1:03:19
  SPEAKER_00: Are you saying lean Democrat, Bryan?
• 1:03:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I might even give it not quite a safe Democrat, but somewhere in there.
• 1:03:31
  SPEAKER_00: Bryan, you're just playing reverse psychology.
• 1:03:36
  SPEAKER_00: You're setting this up as a seed Democrats don't have to worry about
• 1:03:39
  SPEAKER_00: so you can dark horse it right at the end.
• 1:03:42
  SPEAKER_00: Brilliant, Bryan.
• 1:03:43
  SPEAKER_00: Frankly, just brilliant.
• 1:03:46
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks.
• 1:03:47
  SPEAKER_00: All right, moving on.
• 1:03:50
  SPEAKER_00: You're welcome.
• 1:03:50
  SPEAKER_00: So yes, Democrats, totally safe.
• 1:03:52
  SPEAKER_00: Don't spend any money there.
• 1:03:53
  SPEAKER_00: Don't worry about it.
• 1:03:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's all good.
• 1:03:55
  SPEAKER_00: Just move on.
• 1:03:56
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 1:03:57
  SPEAKER_00: Nothing to see here.
• 1:03:58
  SPEAKER_02: All's good.
• 1:03:58
  SPEAKER_02: Nothing to see here.
• 1:04:02
  SPEAKER_00: So House District 48 is one of those districts that's weird.
• 1:04:06
  SPEAKER_00: So this is obviously former Representative Hua Wen,
• 1:04:10
  SPEAKER_00: who died from cancer, replaced by appointed Democrat Lamar Wise.
• 1:04:17
  SPEAKER_00: Who finally, after doing a bit of district shopping, found a district that he could get.
• 1:04:24
  SPEAKER_00: So, and there's, you know, I don't, his residency was, is a little odd.
• 1:04:29
  SPEAKER_00: He's lived in a lot of places.
• 1:04:30
  SPEAKER_00: We'll just put it that way.
• 1:04:32
  SPEAKER_00: So anyway, he ends up here.
• 1:04:35
  SPEAKER_00: He used to be the political director for AFSCME, AFL-CIO.
• 1:04:40
  SPEAKER_00: I can't remember which one.
• 1:04:41
  SPEAKER_00: It's one of the green unions.
• 1:04:42
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was AFSCME.
• 1:04:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think AFSCME, yeah.
• 1:04:45
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was Ask Me.
• 1:04:46
  SPEAKER_00: And he's running against Andrew Morrison.
• 1:04:48
  SPEAKER_00: Now Morrison's weird because did Morrison run in the primary and lose it twice
• 1:04:53
  SPEAKER_00: or just the one time?
• 1:04:54
  SPEAKER_01: Just the one time.
• 1:04:56
  SPEAKER_00: The one time against Masterson.
• 1:04:58
  SPEAKER_00: So Masterson ran in 2022, was sort of like a dark horse candidate there.
• 1:05:03
  SPEAKER_00: He ran again in 2024.
• 1:05:05
  SPEAKER_00: It wasn't as close.
• 1:05:08
  SPEAKER_00: And Morrison ran against him in 2024, loses the primary.
• 1:05:11
  SPEAKER_00: He now goes on to win, I think it was an uncontested primary, if I remember correctly, in May.
• 1:05:19
  SPEAKER_00: And so he's there, he's got some money, hasn't spent a lot of it though.
• 1:05:24
  SPEAKER_00: And I think what leads me to believe it's not close is he's sitting on cash.
• 1:05:31
  SPEAKER_00: If it's close, you want to be spending so that you can intake more money, right?
• 1:05:35
  SPEAKER_00: And both him and Lamar Wise have like 60 grand cash on hand at this point.
• 1:05:41
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know, Brian, is my read on this wrong?
• 1:05:44
  SPEAKER_01: No, I think you're right.
• 1:05:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think that Lamar,
• 1:05:49
  SPEAKER_01: seeing that he's already had spent $418 makes me wonder like this started out.
• 1:05:54
  SPEAKER_01: The polling started out a little rougher for Lamar.
• 1:05:58
  SPEAKER_01: And so they probably did some more spending early, I would say.
• 1:06:02
  SPEAKER_01: And then, and Andrew was raising money.
• 1:06:05
  SPEAKER_01: So I think they, you know, Ben probably had to put some dollars into this seat early on.
• 1:06:10
  SPEAKER_01: To try to shore it up and stuff, I think.
• 1:06:13
  SPEAKER_01: And you're looking at the area from, you know, it's a weird district, too.
• 1:06:18
  SPEAKER_01: Because in 22, I really tried to get us to spend money.
• 1:06:23
  SPEAKER_01: I was sold on Masterman.
• 1:06:25
  SPEAKER_01: He only lost by 500 votes, Masterman did, in 22.
• 1:06:28
  SPEAKER_01: I couldn't get...
• 1:06:30
  SPEAKER_01: Walden and even my wife to agree to spend money in that race.
• 1:06:35
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we spent a little bit.
• 1:06:36
  SPEAKER_01: I spent like eight grand of my own money in that race in 22.
• 1:06:40
  SPEAKER_01: I donated and Masterman dispatched a Morrison pretty quickly in 24 in a primary,
• 1:06:48
  SPEAKER_01: like beat him pretty soundly.
• 1:06:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think that then they had that article that came out on Morrison now
• 1:06:54
  SPEAKER_01: with like he's he's taken in like I nearly like half his money's come from
• 1:06:59
  SPEAKER_01: the Leathers family, which is the Leathers Fuel.
• 1:07:02
  SPEAKER_01: The Leathers Fuel.
• 1:07:03
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, yes.
• 1:07:04
  SPEAKER_01: OK. and then and then I guess it was the lady gave money.
• 1:07:09
  SPEAKER_01: There's a story on I think Capital Chronicle or something, but yeah.
• 1:07:13
  SPEAKER_01: Where apparently the guy that was in charge of Leathers that owned it was convicted
• 1:07:17
  SPEAKER_01: of like sexual assault or some shit or rape.
• 1:07:20
  SPEAKER_01: Like it's pretty like it's pretty horrible.
• 1:07:23
  SPEAKER_01: And they called Morrison for a quote and he goes, oh, geez, I got to look into that.
• 1:07:29
  SPEAKER_01: I thought, yeah, that was the
• 1:07:31
  SPEAKER_02: Capitol Chronicle.
• 1:07:33
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, no.
• 1:07:35
  SPEAKER_01: And here's the biggest thing I have with this one,
• 1:07:37
  SPEAKER_01: and I'll be honest, I don't like Andrew Morrison.
• 1:07:40
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's not a likable candidate.
• 1:07:43
  SPEAKER_01: And I think Lamar Wise runs away with this one.
• 1:07:48
  SPEAKER_01: And he doesn't like me, so I think we're good.
• 1:07:52
  SPEAKER_00: Contribution of the week, 62 grand.
• 1:07:54
  SPEAKER_00: And then, yeah, I just scrolled down.
• 1:07:56
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, did you?
• 1:07:57
  SPEAKER_00: Goodness, Morrison said, I'll definitely need to get back to you.
• 1:08:02
  SPEAKER_00: As a first time, however, Morrison had not called Willamette Week back.
• 1:08:06
  SPEAKER_00: See, I guarantee you.
• 1:08:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's a lot of money, dude.
• 1:08:10
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't have the phone number.
• 1:08:12
  SPEAKER_00: He just picks up.
• 1:08:12
  SPEAKER_00: He brings up his phone and answers,
• 1:08:14
  SPEAKER_00: and they ask him the question,
• 1:08:16
  SPEAKER_00: and he goes,
• 1:08:16
  SPEAKER_00: goodness,
• 1:08:17
  SPEAKER_00: I'll definitely need to get back to you,
• 1:08:19
  SPEAKER_00: and then hangs up, which is why you never answer the unknown numbers, Bryan.
• 1:08:24
  SPEAKER_00: No.
• 1:08:24
  SPEAKER_00: You let them leave a message.
• 1:08:26
  SPEAKER_00: You send staff to follow up first, and then you talk to them.
• 1:08:29
  SPEAKER_00: So anyway.
• 1:08:31
  SPEAKER_02: Or you say, oh, crap, I'm in a meeting, or you just say, I'm in a meeting right now.
• 1:08:35
  SPEAKER_02: Let me get back to you.
• 1:08:36
  SPEAKER_02: And then if you do say anything, you have to get back to them.
• 1:08:40
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 1:08:41
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, if they know they got a hold of you,
• 1:08:42
  SPEAKER_02: you have to get back because you want if you want,
• 1:08:45
  SPEAKER_02: you either have to come up with a statement or like you said, you don't answer.
• 1:08:48
  SPEAKER_02: And then the only right.
• 1:08:51
  SPEAKER_02: He didn't respond.
• 1:08:51
  SPEAKER_01: He didn't return phone calls.
• 1:08:54
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 1:08:54
  SPEAKER_01: So you want that better than.
• 1:08:56
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, geez.
• 1:08:59
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 1:08:59
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, yeah, I don't like I don't think he's to blame.
• 1:09:04
  SPEAKER_00: No, I don't think he's to blame for the contribution or any of the things like that.
• 1:09:09
  SPEAKER_00: If you're getting – he's likely getting checks from Leathers Fuel or some LLC, right?
• 1:09:13
  SPEAKER_00: He's not going to know necessarily that one of them has been to prison
• 1:09:19
  SPEAKER_00: for it looks like rape of a 13-year-old girl, which is horrible.
• 1:09:23
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:09:24
  SPEAKER_00: It's really horrible.
• 1:09:24
  SPEAKER_00: So A, you understand why Willamette Week's reporting on it.
• 1:09:27
  SPEAKER_00: B, you understand why he didn't know.
• 1:09:30
  SPEAKER_00: But C, you are also going to have to go and decide, well, am I going to return all my money?
• 1:09:35
  SPEAKER_00: If you're not going to do that, then you really don't have any good options here.
• 1:09:40
  SPEAKER_00: You just declined to...
• 1:09:44
  SPEAKER_01: And I go back to the primary in 24.
• 1:09:46
  SPEAKER_01: There was a bunch of stuff about his claims that he was on Damascus City Council,
• 1:09:51
  SPEAKER_01: but then he really wasn't.
• 1:09:53
  SPEAKER_01: And then he was appointed, but never actually really got elected.
• 1:09:56
  SPEAKER_01: And then there was just a I just feel like there's a lot of things.
• 1:09:59
  SPEAKER_01: And both of these two candidates and Lamar Wise is the reality that he tried getting
• 1:10:05
  SPEAKER_01: the appointment from Salman.
• 1:10:07
  SPEAKER_01: Back in Hillsborough.
• 1:10:09
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Hillsborough.
• 1:10:10
  SPEAKER_01: And move to this district when Wah Nguyen was sick is also very suspect as an individual, right?
• 1:10:19
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 1:10:19
  SPEAKER_01: I just find that both of
• 1:10:22
  SPEAKER_01: these two are running for state House of Representatives
• 1:10:26
  SPEAKER_01: for the wrong reasons.
• 1:10:28
  SPEAKER_01: And I think you need to...
• 1:10:30
  SPEAKER_01: I want my representatives to be there for the right reasons.
• 1:10:34
  SPEAKER_01: And I just don't think...
• 1:10:36
  SPEAKER_01: I don't blame them for it.
• 1:10:37
  SPEAKER_01: I don't blame Morrison for the money.
• 1:10:39
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you can't go look into every single person that gives you a check,
• 1:10:43
  SPEAKER_01: their background and who they're related to and all that sort of stuff, right?
• 1:10:47
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's not fair.
• 1:10:48
  SPEAKER_01: But I just think this district...
• 1:10:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think this whole district sucks.
• 1:10:54
  SPEAKER_01: I think they should redistribute.
• 1:10:55
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's a horrible district.
• 1:10:57
  SPEAKER_01: It has no it does not have one city or area.
• 1:11:02
  SPEAKER_01: It's this blob that goes down, you know, from southeast Portland out to Damascus.
• 1:11:08
  SPEAKER_01: And it's just this blob of neighborhoods.
• 1:11:10
  SPEAKER_01: There's like no real commercial center at all.
• 1:11:12
  SPEAKER_01: And it's just it was horribly redistributed.
• 1:11:16
  SPEAKER_01: So it needs to change.
• 1:11:17
  SPEAKER_01: And hopefully they do.
• 1:11:18
  SPEAKER_01: We can leave it at that.
• 1:11:19
  SPEAKER_00: I'm already going to get in trouble for talking about him.
• 1:11:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:11:25
  SPEAKER_00: At the end of the day, I think I agree with you.
• 1:11:28
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats need a better candidate.
• 1:11:30
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know, Morrison.
• 1:11:33
  SPEAKER_00: He's just in his social media, I think.
• 1:11:38
  SPEAKER_00: He's pretty excited about himself.
• 1:11:40
  SPEAKER_00: And that's not necessarily unique to politics.
• 1:11:43
  SPEAKER_00: But I think if it comes through, That that heavy voters may not be as enthused about it.
• 1:11:51
  SPEAKER_00: They may think it's less about them and you can't really have that when you're running.
• 1:11:56
  SPEAKER_00: It really does have to be about the voters.
• 1:11:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's got to be where the focus is.
• 1:11:59
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's part of the reason.
• 1:12:00
  SPEAKER_00: Trump's negatives are so high is everyone is just basically like gas prices are killing us.
• 1:12:04
  SPEAKER_00: And he's like, I have made incredible decisions the entire time and this will work out.
• 1:12:09
  SPEAKER_00: And even if he's right,
• 1:12:10
  SPEAKER_00: everybody's filling up with the pump every couple of weeks going,
• 1:12:13
  SPEAKER_00: oh, gosh, it hurts in the meantime.
• 1:12:16
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 1:12:16
  SPEAKER_00: So it's just you can't it's not a way that's it's not going to make you popular.
• 1:12:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Trump doesn't have to run again.
• 1:12:21
  SPEAKER_00: Morrison's got to face the voters.
• 1:12:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's sort of the difference here in a lot of ways.
• 1:12:25
  SPEAKER_00: Also, Trump, he violates all kinds of norms that only he can seem to get away with that.
• 1:12:29
  SPEAKER_00: Most candidates, when they try to imitate, they get they get they get hung out to dry.
• 1:12:35
  SPEAKER_01: So there is only one of a kind of Donald Trump that is not correct.
• 1:12:40
  SPEAKER_01: That is not something you can emulate or copy.
• 1:12:42
  SPEAKER_01: There's could not agree more.
• 1:12:45
  SPEAKER_01: Lean Democrat.
• 1:12:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's where I put it.
• 1:12:49
  SPEAKER_01: So
• 1:12:52
  SPEAKER_01: last seat, the other one that everybody's looking at, the
• 1:12:55
  SPEAKER_02: battle of the data
• 1:12:57
  SPEAKER_01: centers.
• 1:12:58
  SPEAKER_01: Who's right?
• 1:12:59
  SPEAKER_01: Hypocrite Hank or data center Scott?
• 1:13:04
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like they have a whole website.
• 1:13:06
  SPEAKER_01: Hypocrite Hank.
• 1:13:07
  SPEAKER_01: They have a whole website dedicated to hypocrite Hank,
• 1:13:10
  SPEAKER_01: like he used to be in data centers and stuff.
• 1:13:13
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, kind of a funny one.
• 1:13:16
  SPEAKER_01: But this is, you know, Wasco down to Gresham, basically.
• 1:13:23
  SPEAKER_01: And kind of just that that gorge.
• 1:13:25
  SPEAKER_01: See, Jeff Helfrich's seat.
• 1:13:27
  SPEAKER_01: Jeff won it back in 52 or in 2022.
• 1:13:29
  SPEAKER_01: He lost it in 18.
• 1:13:34
  SPEAKER_01: If you remember, Helfrich did.
• 1:13:36
  SPEAKER_01: And then didn't run in 20.
• 1:13:38
  SPEAKER_01: So he didn't run again.
• 1:13:39
  SPEAKER_01: And then he got back in 22 because... What's her face?
• 1:13:44
  SPEAKER_01: Anna... What was her name?
• 1:13:46
  SPEAKER_01: Anna?
• 1:13:47
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, gosh.
• 1:13:49
  SPEAKER_01: She was part of that group of legislators that quit
• 1:13:51
  SPEAKER_01: because they can't make enough money to pay their bills.
• 1:13:55
  SPEAKER_01: So she quit.
• 1:13:57
  SPEAKER_01: And then Jeff got back in there.
• 1:13:58
  SPEAKER_01: Won the last two times.
• 1:14:00
  SPEAKER_01: And then now is running for the Senate seat.
• 1:14:02
  SPEAKER_01: Daniel Bonham's Senate seat.
• 1:14:03
  SPEAKER_01: So...
• 1:14:05
  SPEAKER_01: And then I think Jeff helped recruit Scott Hagee, who's county commissioner in Waspel County.
• 1:14:12
  SPEAKER_01: Been there a long time, you know, really well-known county commissioner.
• 1:14:16
  SPEAKER_01: Anna Williams, goodness.
• 1:14:18
  SPEAKER_00: Anna Williams.
• 1:14:21
  SPEAKER_01: Scott's a great I think he's a good guy.
• 1:14:23
  SPEAKER_01: I met him.
• 1:14:24
  SPEAKER_01: I met him for the first time at the golf tournament that we had.
• 1:14:28
  SPEAKER_01: The Republican fundraiser listens to the show.
• 1:14:32
  SPEAKER_01: So hi, Scott.
• 1:14:33
  SPEAKER_01: Probably going to listen to this with bated breath.
• 1:14:35
  SPEAKER_01: I keep asking him to come on.
• 1:14:36
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's a little afraid to come on as we talk about the data center stuff.
• 1:14:42
  SPEAKER_01: But I mean, it's it's a fair debate to have this one.
• 1:14:44
  SPEAKER_01: It has a true data center.
• 1:14:48
  SPEAKER_01: It's really the only race that has the data center stuff wedged into it besides
• 1:14:53
  SPEAKER_01: the governor's race because of the Google presence inside that district.
• 1:15:01
  SPEAKER_01: And I think if you ask anybody in the DAOs, well, not anybody.
• 1:15:07
  SPEAKER_01: If you ask normal people in the DAOs,
• 1:15:09
  SPEAKER_01: I think they would tell you that Google has been a good partner.
• 1:15:12
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't know what happens here.
• 1:15:15
  SPEAKER_01: I heard the polling is really, really tight.
• 1:15:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think Hank Sanders, who's a, you know, he's a fellow nepo.
• 1:15:22
  SPEAKER_01: So we do be in the daughter or the, sorry, the daughter, the son of Senator Reynolds.
• 1:15:30
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that, and a staffer.
• 1:15:32
  SPEAKER_01: So he is a fellow staffer, Reagan,
• 1:15:33
  SPEAKER_01: but you know,
• 1:15:36
  SPEAKER_01: we probably want him to win just because he's got the nepotism that we always,
• 1:15:40
  SPEAKER_01: that people always complain about us with.
• 1:15:41
  SPEAKER_01: So, That's my only reason.
• 1:15:44
  SPEAKER_00: False, first of all.
• 1:15:47
  SPEAKER_00: Not for you anymore, right?
• 1:15:48
  SPEAKER_00: You're on your own.
• 1:15:51
  SPEAKER_00: No, first of all, I just want to be clear.
• 1:15:53
  SPEAKER_00: Always oppose nepotism.
• 1:15:54
  SPEAKER_00: No, I'm just kidding.
• 1:15:55
  SPEAKER_00: Listen.
• 1:15:59
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 1:15:59
  SPEAKER_00: and I was impressed,
• 1:16:00
  SPEAKER_00: I watched some of the Willamette Week interview,
• 1:16:02
  SPEAKER_00: I was incredibly impressed with Hagee.
• 1:16:05
  SPEAKER_00: And I think he gave really good answers on why he did, because he's a Wasco commissioner, right?
• 1:16:12
  SPEAKER_00: And he gave his answers.
• 1:16:15
  SPEAKER_00: He gave his answers on why he did it.
• 1:16:17
  SPEAKER_00: And it absolutely made sense for the county.
• 1:16:19
  SPEAKER_00: It made sense for their finances, made sense for their economy.
• 1:16:21
  SPEAKER_00: It made sense for X, Y, Z.
• 1:16:24
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think this is, I'm glad that this is a close race.
• 1:16:28
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Hagee's having to spend quite a bit more to make it close,
• 1:16:30
  SPEAKER_00: but that's been typical for Republicans.
• 1:16:33
  SPEAKER_00: Hagee's like three quarters of a million in, Sanders about 200 million.
• 1:16:38
  SPEAKER_00: At the end of the day, I think one of the biggest challenges – and I've just seen this.
• 1:16:42
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats don't seem to care about young candidates.
• 1:16:46
  SPEAKER_00: Swing voters and Republicans do seem to care about how old you are, how much experience.
• 1:16:50
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's a proxy for experience, both life, business, elected experience.
• 1:16:56
  SPEAKER_00: And I think if Hank Sanders is like 20 years older – This is
• 1:17:01
  SPEAKER_00: a different race potentially,
• 1:17:03
  SPEAKER_00: but the fact that he's young gives a little bit of that,
• 1:17:08
  SPEAKER_00: you know, people want to vote for people with experience.
• 1:17:10
  SPEAKER_00: They don't necessarily want people doing on-the-job training in a lot
• 1:17:13
  SPEAKER_00: of these situations, and not that he doesn't know how I agree.
• 1:17:37
  SPEAKER_01: I think you're right.
• 1:17:38
  SPEAKER_01: Well, one, Scott, his reasons for what they did with Google were spot on, and I think he is...
• 1:17:48
  SPEAKER_01: And nobody would have known then what you know now in regards to AI and all that.
• 1:17:52
  SPEAKER_01: This didn't even exist back when, because Google's been in the Dallas for like 20 years.
• 1:17:57
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not like it's some brand new, you know, hyperscaler that he just brought in.
• 1:18:02
  SPEAKER_01: So I think the criticism against them is silly.
• 1:18:05
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the Dallas was drying up and people were moving and they needed,
• 1:18:10
  SPEAKER_01: they were using it,
• 1:18:11
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:18:12
  SPEAKER_00: For Gmail and Google Calendar and Docs and Google Photos.
• 1:18:16
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's not, they could be using it for AI now.
• 1:18:18
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying they aren't.
• 1:18:19
  SPEAKER_00: We have no way of knowing now what they're using it for.
• 1:18:22
  SPEAKER_00: But back then it was like, everybody's using Gmail.
• 1:18:24
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody's using Google.
• 1:18:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's not weird.
• 1:18:27
  SPEAKER_01: It was like partly a call center too.
• 1:18:29
  SPEAKER_01: They were helping people out with their Gmail and stuff.
• 1:18:31
  SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, it really is.
• 1:18:33
  SPEAKER_01: So it's transformed more,
• 1:18:34
  SPEAKER_01: but it's also been,
• 1:18:36
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:18:36
  SPEAKER_01: his job as a county commissioner is to,
• 1:18:38
  SPEAKER_01: you know, what's in the best interest of the county.
• 1:18:41
  SPEAKER_01: And I think with that in mind, I mean, he made the right decision.
• 1:18:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think that I agree with you.
• 1:18:46
  SPEAKER_01: I think that people, for the most part, will agree with his decision making.
• 1:18:51
  SPEAKER_01: And and they'll think that Hank is just a little too young.
• 1:18:55
  SPEAKER_01: I think he probably hears a lot of, oh, wow, he's going to be a good, good candidate one day.
• 1:19:00
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, I look forward to him maybe.
• 1:19:02
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah.
• 1:19:03
  SPEAKER_01: You know, what were you saying?
• 1:19:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:19:07
  SPEAKER_00: No, I agree with you on that.
• 1:19:08
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that that's true.
• 1:19:10
  SPEAKER_00: And I wouldn't be surprised.
• 1:19:12
  SPEAKER_00: This is the other race.
• 1:19:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think these are the top two.
• 1:19:14
  SPEAKER_00: And I put this, I throw this in true toss-up as well.
• 1:19:19
  SPEAKER_00: And I think...
• 1:19:21
  SPEAKER_00: Am I right that Hagee represented Wasco at the same time Walden represented in Congress?
• 1:19:26
  SPEAKER_00: And so I wouldn't be surprised if they know each other.
• 1:19:30
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Bring Balance is funding this race.
• 1:19:32
  SPEAKER_00: So you also got that component for sure.
• 1:19:36
  SPEAKER_00: I'm glad it's a fight,
• 1:19:37
  SPEAKER_00: and I'm glad to see – The debate about data centers take place in a swing district.
• 1:19:42
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's great.
• 1:19:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's good for the state.
• 1:19:44
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's good to see what the arguments are.
• 1:19:46
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's good for them to be tested in real time to see how they perform with voters.
• 1:19:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think the sea has been blue-ish.
• 1:19:53
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's a point for Hank.
• 1:19:57
  SPEAKER_00: But I do think – and I don't necessarily think it's always right
• 1:20:01
  SPEAKER_00: that younger candidates are – but I think writ large voters,
• 1:20:05
  SPEAKER_00: they just – You ran when you were young, Bryan.
• 1:20:08
  SPEAKER_00: Did you experience any of that?
• 1:20:11
  SPEAKER_01: No, they just told me never run again.
• 1:20:13
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's what your dad told me.
• 1:20:15
  SPEAKER_01: You make a horrible candidate.
• 1:20:19
  SPEAKER_01: He goes, have you tried consulting?
• 1:20:24
  SPEAKER_00: You have a face for consulting, Bryan.
• 1:20:26
  SPEAKER_00: We know that about you.
• 1:20:27
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, thanks, Bryan.
• 1:20:28
  SPEAKER_00: You're welcome.
• 1:20:29
  SPEAKER_01: I think, yes,
• 1:20:32
  SPEAKER_01: and I love the fact that Scott is the one talking about the data centers
• 1:20:36
  SPEAKER_01: because I think he can do it.
• 1:20:37
  SPEAKER_01: He can articulate the community decision making better than probably most people can.
• 1:20:45
  SPEAKER_01: And not a left or right reasoning, like he articulates it really well.
• 1:20:49
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's important.
• 1:20:51
  SPEAKER_01: And I hope he's in the legislature so he can help articulate some of that
• 1:20:55
  SPEAKER_01: when we get some of these,
• 1:20:57
  SPEAKER_01: you know, far,
• 1:20:59
  SPEAKER_01: far left worrying and maybe Maybe even some right-wingers that want
• 1:21:02
  SPEAKER_01: to do moratoriums on data centers because that's not the way to go.
• 1:21:07
  SPEAKER_01: And the data center community knows that they're fixing it.
• 1:21:11
  SPEAKER_01: Things are fixing faster than the legislature is going to be able to pass a bill to fix.
• 1:21:16
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that Scott would be an awesome addition to the caucus.
• 1:21:21
  SPEAKER_01: And I think he would come with it with a good set of knowledge.
• 1:21:28
  SPEAKER_01: Resume is really good.
• 1:21:29
  SPEAKER_01: And I think he would also just fit well with your caucus over there, Reagan, and in the House.
• 1:21:34
  SPEAKER_01: I just think he would meld well with those folks over there.
• 1:21:38
  SPEAKER_01: I just see him as being somebody that kind of fits.
• 1:21:40
  SPEAKER_01: Common sense.
• 1:21:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:21:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:21:43
  SPEAKER_01: I hope he wins.
• 1:21:44
  SPEAKER_01: And I hope, you know, that one I'm rooting for, for sure.
• 1:21:48
  SPEAKER_01: So, and come on the pods, God, don't worry.
• 1:21:51
  SPEAKER_01: I think Democrats...
• 1:21:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 1:21:54
  SPEAKER_00: Please come on the pod, Scott.
• 1:21:55
  SPEAKER_00: I also think for Sanders,
• 1:21:58
  SPEAKER_00: in the event that he wins, I also think that Democrats could do a lot worse.
• 1:22:03
  SPEAKER_00: They had more obnoxious, boring options in their primary, and they went with Hank.
• 1:22:08
  SPEAKER_00: There's a reason for that.
• 1:22:08
  SPEAKER_00: I think he is a compelling person in a person-to-person setting,
• 1:22:16
  SPEAKER_00: in an interview setting, probably in a forum setting, I'm guessing.
• 1:22:20
  SPEAKER_00: He's a very compelling speaker, and I think he is energetic.
• 1:22:24
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's what draws people to him on the Democratic side of the ledger.
• 1:22:27
  SPEAKER_00: He crushed in that primary, and he was not expected to crush.
• 1:22:31
  SPEAKER_00: He's still outperforming what a lot of people might have expected from him.
• 1:22:38
  SPEAKER_00: As well.
• 1:22:39
  SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, the inverse, I think it'll be very interesting.
• 1:22:42
  SPEAKER_01: The inverse happens in the primaries, Reagan,
• 1:22:44
  SPEAKER_01: where like sometimes people vote for the younger person
• 1:22:47
  SPEAKER_01: because they think it's we've seen that in Democrat primaries.
• 1:22:52
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, across the spectrum, but normally in these purple seats, you're right.
• 1:22:56
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the person that kind of just seems to be a better candidate at
• 1:23:01
  SPEAKER_01: that moment just usually has a slight advantage unless there's something that.
• 1:23:07
  SPEAKER_01: That they can't get away from.
• 1:23:09
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think data centers is...
• 1:23:11
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I hope it's not a big enough issue.
• 1:23:13
  SPEAKER_01: Hopefully they've deflected enough off to where he's not painted into Mr. Data Center guy.
• 1:23:23
  SPEAKER_01: Because there is some negatives on data centers, that's for sure.
• 1:23:26
  SPEAKER_01: But I think that'll change.
• 1:23:28
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't know.
• 1:23:30
  SPEAKER_01: We'll have to find out, man.
• 1:23:32
  SPEAKER_01: That one's going to be a fun one to watch, too, on election night.
• 1:23:35
  SPEAKER_01: And I wish the best for him.
• 1:23:37
  SPEAKER_01: So there we have it.
• 1:23:38
  SPEAKER_01: So my final tally.
• 1:23:40
  SPEAKER_01: If we add the liens, red Republicans 22, blue 36, and we battle for two seats.
• 1:23:48
  SPEAKER_00: I don't love it, Bryan.
• 1:23:51
  SPEAKER_00: I don't love it.
• 1:23:52
  SPEAKER_01: No, it's not good for us.
• 1:23:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's not a good.
• 1:23:56
  SPEAKER_01: But here's the problem.
• 1:23:59
  SPEAKER_00: All the polling at the federal level, almost all of it, has all been bad for ours.
• 1:24:04
  SPEAKER_00: And the stories are right now that Republicans are triaging seats.
• 1:24:07
  SPEAKER_00: They're badly behind in swing seats and moving the money into lean Republican seats.
• 1:24:13
  SPEAKER_00: And that is that's a sign that Republicans internal polling is also bad.
• 1:24:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now, doesn't mean the polling is right.
• 1:24:20
  SPEAKER_00: Polling could be off and it's going to be off across the board.
• 1:24:22
  SPEAKER_00: If that's if that's true, then they may do better than they're expecting to do.
• 1:24:25
  SPEAKER_00: But right now,
• 1:24:26
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans are not expecting to win much at the federal level,
• 1:24:29
  SPEAKER_00: not expected to hold the House.
• 1:24:31
  SPEAKER_00: If they hold the Senate, it'll be by the skin of their teeth.
• 1:24:35
  SPEAKER_00: It might be a John Fetterman flip situation to hold control.
• 1:24:40
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, like literally that might be what they're counting on.
• 1:24:42
  SPEAKER_00: Mm hmm.
• 1:24:43
  SPEAKER_00: Or end up benefiting from if it happens.
• 1:24:46
  SPEAKER_00: And then downstate is not looking amazing in most states either.
• 1:24:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think most states are in the same situation, whether they're Republican majority.
• 1:24:55
  SPEAKER_00: If they have Republican supermajorities, they're looking at losing their supermajorities.
• 1:24:58
  SPEAKER_00: If they have big Republican majorities, they're looking at small Republican majorities.
• 1:25:04
  SPEAKER_00: There's some states where they're at risk of being kicked in the minority.
• 1:25:07
  SPEAKER_00: This is not the year you want to be Republicans.
• 1:25:10
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:25:12
  SPEAKER_00: At the end of the day, at least not from not from all the signs we're seeing.
• 1:25:15
  SPEAKER_00: Again, some of that stuff can be wrong.
• 1:25:17
  SPEAKER_00: There are some indications.
• 1:25:18
  SPEAKER_00: Some people have theories that rural Republicans are not really answering polls right now.
• 1:25:23
  SPEAKER_00: So they're being undercounted.
• 1:25:26
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe now you still wait.
• 1:25:29
  SPEAKER_00: You still wait.
• 1:25:30
  SPEAKER_00: The answers you do get to try to bring it up.
• 1:25:32
  SPEAKER_00: But there could be a there could be a phenomenon there.
• 1:25:35
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see.
• 1:25:37
  SPEAKER_00: There's you know, we got about 30 days, right?
• 1:25:40
  SPEAKER_00: Well, A little less than 30 now.
• 1:25:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's October 7th.
• 1:25:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:25:45
  SPEAKER_01: It's pretty... Ballots are out in two weeks, right?
• 1:25:49
  SPEAKER_01: No, next week.
• 1:25:51
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, geez.
• 1:25:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the good news is in Oregon,
• 1:25:54
  SPEAKER_01: like the biggest bright spot we have,
• 1:25:56
  SPEAKER_01: right, is you have a Drazen governor's race that is, you know, beating Tina Kotech.
• 1:26:05
  SPEAKER_01: Now, and like we've talked about, that...
• 1:26:09
  SPEAKER_01: Negativity towards Kotech is really driving that race to be close.
• 1:26:13
  SPEAKER_01: And a good campaign run by Drazen.
• 1:26:16
  SPEAKER_01: But I think it's not transferring down ballot.
• 1:26:19
  SPEAKER_01: And that's been a big problem for the legislature is the Trump.
• 1:26:25
  SPEAKER_01: But the Trump stuff seems to be transferring down ballot.
• 1:26:29
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a big problem for us.
• 1:26:31
  SPEAKER_01: And if you don't have that in these legislative races,
• 1:26:34
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's really just going to come down.
• 1:26:35
  SPEAKER_01: The people haven't changed in these districts.
• 1:26:38
  SPEAKER_01: They're the same people.
• 1:26:41
  SPEAKER_02: That voted for Republicans in 52 and they voted for Javity.
• 1:26:45
  SPEAKER_02: These are the same people that voted for Republicans.
• 1:26:48
  SPEAKER_01: So you just got to get on their door.
• 1:26:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think it just always comes down to the get out the vote effort and making sure
• 1:26:57
  SPEAKER_01: that people actually vote.
• 1:26:58
  SPEAKER_01: If we don't get our Republicans to turn out,
• 1:27:00
  SPEAKER_01: if they feel like I just don't want to vote this time, I'm kind of pissed at Trump.
• 1:27:05
  SPEAKER_01: I voted for him, but I just kind of I stay on the fence.
• 1:27:07
  SPEAKER_01: And That's going to make it very difficult for us.
• 1:27:10
  SPEAKER_01: And I think at the end of the day,
• 1:27:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think the Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans are right now.
• 1:27:18
  SPEAKER_01: And that just needs to change.
• 1:27:21
  SPEAKER_01: And hopefully that does.
• 1:27:22
  SPEAKER_01: And they got some time to do it.
• 1:27:24
  SPEAKER_01: But with ballots out in a week, man, your options start narrowing really quick.
• 1:27:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 1:27:31
  SPEAKER_01: So...
• 1:27:32
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, well, I mean, it is what it is.
• 1:27:35
  SPEAKER_01: Like you said, not the year to be running in a purple district if you're a Republican,
• 1:27:40
  SPEAKER_01: regardless of what position.
• 1:27:43
  SPEAKER_01: And this is,
• 1:27:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think the first year I was reading this morning,
• 1:27:46
  SPEAKER_01: this is the first year where Democrats could win the majority of governorships
• 1:27:50
  SPEAKER_01: across the country, which would suck too.
• 1:27:53
  SPEAKER_01: Wow.
• 1:27:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:27:55
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 1:27:55
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I think we did it.
• 1:27:56
  SPEAKER_01: That was a long episode.
• 1:27:57
  SPEAKER_01: Hopefully people chewed through it.
• 1:28:00
  SPEAKER_01: We'll let you go and get back to your lives.
• 1:28:03
  SPEAKER_01: We'll talk to you next week.
• 1:28:05
  SPEAKER_00: Let us know if our predictions are wrong.
• 1:28:07
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely tell us that we're wrong.
• 1:28:11
  SPEAKER_00: We're pretty used to it by now.
• 1:28:13
  SPEAKER_01: And we usually are wrong.
• 1:28:14
  SPEAKER_01: I'm hoping we're wrong.
• 1:28:16
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I would love to be wrong.
• 1:28:19
  SPEAKER_00: Text us all your secret internal polls.
• 1:28:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:28:24
  SPEAKER_01: There was some troll on X or something that he's like,
• 1:28:29
  SPEAKER_01: your predictions are always wrong and this is the time I hope he's right.
• 1:28:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:28:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:28:35
  SPEAKER_00: All righty.
• 1:28:36
  SPEAKER_00: See you, Reagan.
• 1:28:38
  SPEAKER_00: Talk to you later, Bryan.
• 1:28:41
  [music]