Latest / The Morning Edition / Israel votes: Is Netanyahu's leadership over?

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Israel votes: Is Netanyahu's leadership over? · The Morning Edition

0:02
S1: After the October 7th attacks, Benjamin Netanyahu s prime ministership
0:06
S1: seemed in ruins. His government repeatedly looked on the verge
0:10
S1: of collapse. Today, Israelis head to the polls for Israel's
0:14
S1: first national election since that harrowing day three years ago.
0:19
S1: So how are they viewing the prime Minister now? I'm
0:23
S1: Samantha Salinger Morris, and you're listening to The Morning Edition
0:26
S1: from the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. Today, Foreign
0:30
S1: affairs and national security correspondent Matthew not reporting from Israel
0:35
S1: on the key issues tearing Israelis apart and the surprising
0:40
S1: bloc of voters who may be the kingmakers in this election. Welcome, Matt,
0:49
S1: back to the podcast.
0:51
S2: Thank you very much.
0:52
S1: Okay. This is monumental. You are recording from Tel Aviv
0:56
S1: right now. And, and many analysts are calling this the
0:59
S1: most consequential election in Israel for decades. So is that fair?
1:04
S1: Is it a stretch? And if it is fair, why?
1:06
S1: So like what's at stake here?
1:08
S2: Yes, it's interesting in one way, I would say yes.
1:12
S2: They certainly are amongst the most important elections in Israel's history.
1:16
S2: In another way, perhaps not, and we can get into that.
1:20
S2: But there is a strong feeling here on the ground
1:24
S2: in Israel that these elections are absolutely crucial, that this
1:29
S2: is not just another regular election. Proof of that, actually,
1:35
S2: is the fact that Israelis who live overseas are flying
1:39
S2: back to vote in huge numbers, much more than in
1:43
S2: the past. In Israel, you have to be here in
1:46
S2: person on Election Day and cast a paper ballot. And
1:51
S2: I think that fact that so many people are flying
1:54
S2: in gets at the Enthusiasm that people have for voting.
1:59
S2: It's voluntary voting, but turnout. Everyone expects it to be
2:04
S2: incredibly high. These are the first elections since the October
2:12
S2: 7th attacks of 2023, and I think everyone is familiar
2:16
S2: with everything that has followed, uh, since then. Uh, the
2:20
S2: war in Gaza was in Lebanon. The war with Iran. Uh,
2:25
S2: Benjamin Netanyahu is facing charges. I mean, the International Criminal Court,
2:31
S2: Israel has been charged with genocide at the International Court
2:35
S2: of Justice. This has been an issue that's inflamed passions
2:40
S2: around the world. But Israelis haven't voted since 2022. Benjamin
2:47
S2: Netanyahu has been in power for most of the past
2:50
S2: 20 years. Um, it's pretty amazing to think he was
2:53
S2: first elected in 1996. That's when John Howard was first elected. And,
2:59
S2: you know, now Benjamin Netanyahu is still going and still
3:03
S2: wants to be in power. So that's the reason why
3:06
S2: people think these elections are so important. He's governed over
3:10
S2: the past four years with the most right wing government
3:13
S2: in Israel's history because of some of the far right,
3:17
S2: ultra nationalist ministers that he's had to bring in to
3:21
S2: his government. So that's why people here say it's so
3:25
S2: important that they want to take the country in a
3:28
S2: different direction. Uh, why some people might say they are
3:32
S2: not so important is because there's actually a lot of
3:36
S2: consensus on some of the big issues that used to
3:39
S2: really divide Israel in the past. In the 90s, say
3:44
S2: you saw elections where, uh, relations with the Palestinians was
3:48
S2: a huge issue. And, and there was a peace process
3:51
S2: going on. And that was a very lively debate right
3:54
S2: now following the October 7th attacks, there's there's actually a
3:58
S2: lot of unanimity about what should be done on some
4:01
S2: of these big issues.
4:03
S1: That's fascinating. So we're going to get into some of
4:04
S1: those very soon. But first off, I just wanted to
4:07
S1: ask you about the two main contenders for Prime Minister. Really.
4:11
S1: So really the main contest, as I understand it, is
4:13
S1: between the existing Prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot.
4:18
S1: He's a centrist and a former military chief. So if
4:20
S1: you had to break down what their respective platforms are,
4:23
S1: you know what they're fighting for with regards to how
4:25
S1: they see the future of Israel, how different are they?
4:29
S2: Well, Netanyahu is really campaigning on his experience, that longevity
4:34
S2: I was just talking about. He's known in many parts
4:37
S2: of Israel as Mr. Security. He presents himself as the
4:41
S2: man who can keep Israelis safe. Now, that reputation obviously
4:45
S2: took a huge battering on October 7th, which was the
4:49
S2: deadliest day in Israel's history, but he's tried to build
4:53
S2: back that reputation with the wars that have followed. Think
4:58
S2: of things like the pager and walkie talkie attacks against
5:02
S2: Hezbollah in Lebanon. The fact that he convinced Donald Trump
5:07
S2: to attack Iran not just once, but twice, something that past, uh,
5:14
S2: past Israeli leaders had failed to do with different US presidents. Uh,
5:19
S2: he's saying that Iran still presents as a catastrophic threat
5:24
S2: to Israel, and he's the man who can handle it.
5:27
S2: Donald Trump endorsed him, uh, last week, which is pretty unusual.
5:32
S2: That's never happened before in Israel. And relations with the
5:36
S2: United States are absolutely crucial here. So that he's campaigning, uh,
5:43
S2: with a lot of, uh, fear, I would say about
5:45
S2: what his opponents would do. He's using the slogan vote,
5:49
S2: right or Palestine. He's basically saying that any government except
5:53
S2: his will create a Palestinian state and allow terrorism to flourish.
6:00
S2: And now Gadi Eisenkot, who, as you say, is the
6:03
S2: leading opposition figure running against him, he was formerly the
6:08
S2: head of the Israeli military before entering politics pretty recently.
6:14
S2: And he's had a really recent huge surge in the polls.
6:19
S2: It wasn't obvious, say, a year ago, that he was
6:22
S2: going to be the leading contender. And now Gadi Eisenkot
6:28
S2: son was serving in the military and died in the
6:31
S2: war in Gaza. So that shows Israelis that he has
6:35
S2: a personal stake in this issue. Um, you know, as
6:39
S2: a as a bereaved father, um, we describe him as
6:42
S2: a centrist compared to Netanyahu and his, uh, government. In
6:48
S2: some ways he's quite hawkish on security very much. He's said,
6:54
S2: for example, uh, that, uh, Israel needs to take Hamas
6:58
S2: out of power in Gaza within 18 months and he'll
7:01
S2: basically do whatever it takes, including if that requires going
7:05
S2: back to war. Um, so he's no kind of lefty
7:09
S2: or peace lover at all, but what he's campaigning on, uh,
7:14
S2: is restoring integrity, uh, to, to the Israeli system, uh, fairness, uh,
7:21
S2: he's campaigning a lot on this issue, uh, of recruiting, uh, everyone, including, uh,
7:27
S2: ultra-Orthodox Jews, into the military. Um, he's campaigning for accountability
7:33
S2: for October 7th. Um, think about the situation in Australia
7:37
S2: after the Bondi attacks and all the calls for a
7:40
S2: royal commission to find out why 15 people were killed
7:44
S2: that day in Israel. 1200 people were killed on October 7th,
7:50
S2: and there's been no substantial inquiry into how this happened.
7:55
S2: What led up to it? How to prevent it from
7:57
S2: happening again, because Netanyahu has blocked that. So Eisenkot and
8:01
S2: the other opposition figures are saying that basically the first
8:06
S2: thing they would do if they win is to create
8:08
S2: what's called a state commission of inquiry into the October
8:11
S2: 7th attacks.
8:14
S1: Okay. Well, let's talk about, I guess, another issue which
8:16
S1: has become, I think, pretty big and even bigger, I'd say,
8:20
S1: in the last couple of weeks. And this is the
8:22
S1: issue of Iran and how it might possibly sway this
8:24
S1: election or impact it, because, as you've just written, Benjamin
8:28
S1: Netanyahu shocked many Israelis and as you pointed out, not
8:31
S1: easy to do. Israelis are not easily shocked. But the
8:34
S1: other day, many of them were when the prime minister
8:37
S1: posted an apocalyptic AI generated image of a nuclear bomb
8:41
S1: being dropped in the middle of Tel Aviv on social
8:43
S1: media and the message you wrote was clear, you know,
8:46
S1: vote for me or Armageddon will follow. So walk us
8:49
S1: through the growing threat. In the last couple of weeks
8:51
S1: alone of resumed strikes between the US, Israel and Iran,
8:56
S1: and how Netanyahu is sort of playing off this threat.
8:59
S2: Yes, this really is gathering steam here in Israel, and
9:05
S2: there's a lot of anxiety about what's going to happen.
9:09
S2: It was interesting last week, not long after I arrived here,
9:12
S2: I interviewed former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and he's
9:18
S2: a big critic of Netanyahu. And one of his big
9:20
S2: points in the interview was essentially that Netanyahu will do
9:24
S2: whatever it takes to remain in power. If necessary. He
9:28
S2: will start a war to try and delay the elections
9:31
S2: if necessary. Um, he could use other tactics as well.
9:35
S2: And I said to him, you know, many people might
9:37
S2: think this sounds a bit paranoid, you don't like him.
9:40
S2: And he said, essentially, no, I know this man. I
9:42
S2: worked with him for a long time, and he's desperate
9:45
S2: to stay in power, in part because he's facing criminal charges.
9:50
S2: And if he's not, and if Netanyahu is not prime minister,
9:53
S2: he'll be much more liable to potentially go to jail.
9:55
S2: So he's got a personal, big personal stake in being reelected.
10:00
S2: This is not just like a normal election in Australia
10:02
S2: where you win or you lose. The way Netanyahu is
10:04
S2: thinking about it is if I lose, I might well
10:07
S2: go to prison. So he's got a big motivation to
10:11
S2: stay in power. And yes, we've seen reports that Netanyahu
10:16
S2: tried to convince Donald Trump to restart military strikes on
10:20
S2: Iran in the lead up to the elections, that Trump
10:24
S2: pushed back on that, but was more open to it
10:27
S2: after the midterms, which are happening the following week in
10:30
S2: the US. And he may not want to be in
10:33
S2: a war with Iran that's very unpopular there. Uh, ahead
10:37
S2: of polling day. But after there seems to be more
10:40
S2: willingness to to strike Iran. We're seeing reports that Netanyahu
10:46
S2: has had a big clash in recent days with the
10:49
S2: head of the Israeli military. Essentially, what these reports are
10:52
S2: suggesting is that Netanyahu was trying to create some kind of, uh,
10:57
S2: some kind of military interaction with Iran for what the
11:02
S2: head of the army thinks was for political reasons and
11:06
S2: under law, he's not allowed to authorize anything. And he's
11:09
S2: pushed back. And he said there's no, uh, particular strategic
11:12
S2: reason to strike Iran before the elections. Uh, the military
11:17
S2: and Israel is a huge institution in society, and they
11:21
S2: don't want to be seen as being part of one
11:24
S2: side of politics or another at election time. Uh, and
11:29
S2: a key thing to know as well is that this
11:32
S2: could still play out after the election. It might be
11:35
S2: tempting to think, oh, well, Israelis are voting on Tuesday,
11:37
S2: October 7th. And then it's all done. Uh, there's been
11:41
S2: no war. The results will be the results. In one sense,
11:44
S2: that's true. The results will be there. But we're expecting
11:47
S2: a lot of haggling over who can form a government.
11:50
S2: This can take weeks and months. In Israel, throughout that
11:53
S2: whole time, Netanyahu will remain as prime minister so he
11:58
S2: can launch wars. He runs Israel's foreign policy. He's got
12:03
S2: as much power as ever. And there's a lot of
12:07
S2: thought of, well, could he make the argument? Look, yes,
12:09
S2: we just had an election, but we're now in a
12:11
S2: war again with our fiercest, fiercest adversary. Missiles might be
12:17
S2: coming down on Tel Aviv. He might say, I absolutely
12:21
S2: need to remain as prime minister. Perhaps. Can we have
12:24
S2: some kind of unity government? I'll let you take power
12:28
S2: later on. And these are all hypotheticals, but this is
12:31
S2: very much active in in Israeli's minds now there's absolute
12:37
S2: hatred of Iran here that transcends all divides. It's seen
12:41
S2: as Israel's big enemy, not just in itself, but the
12:44
S2: way it funds terror groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. So
12:49
S2: Netanyahu thinks he's on to a winner. But there's a
12:52
S2: lot of cynicism about his motives and what he's potentially
12:57
S2: trying to do here.
12:59
S1: That's interesting. And I wanted to ask you a question
13:00
S1: about what the temperature is like. You know, how voters
13:03
S1: are on the on the ground are actually responding to
13:05
S1: this in real time. Because the amazing thing about you
13:08
S1: being there in Israel right now is you are speaking
13:10
S1: to people in, in various sectors of the community. Right.
13:14
S1: You have visited an ultra right community of settlers essentially
13:18
S1: near the border of Gaza in the south of Israel.
13:21
S1: You've also spoken to Israelis on one of the kibbutzim
13:24
S1: that was struck on October 7th. You are currently in
13:27
S1: Tel Aviv. So what are people feeling in terms of
13:30
S1: who will protect them? You know, are they sort of,
13:33
S1: you know, vying for one liter rather than the other
13:35
S1: because it's interesting. Netanyahu has long portrayed himself as Mr. Security.
13:40
S1: And then you've got Gadi Eisenkot, who, of course, was
13:42
S1: the head of the military and has has that foundation
13:46
S1: in his own right.
13:47
S2: Mhm. Yeah. People feel that there's so much at stake
13:51
S2: on both sides. So those are settlers, far right settler
13:56
S2: activists I was talking to near the Gaza border. They've
13:59
S2: set up a camp there and they're essentially saying, look,
14:02
S2: the day after the election, if there's any kind of
14:05
S2: government we can work with, we're going to campaign to
14:07
S2: go in and establish settlements in Gaza. Again, this is
14:11
S2: the time to do it. That will keep Israelis more safe.
14:15
S2: It'll show that October 7th can never happen again. There
14:19
S2: were hundreds of them camping there. Then on the other side,
14:23
S2: you'll have a more left wing Israelis who are absolutely
14:27
S2: desperate to get Netanyahu out. There have been big protests
14:31
S2: here in Tel Aviv, which is a very secular, uh,
14:36
S2: very secular city. They really see it as as existential
14:39
S2: for the democratic nature of Israel, not just as a
14:43
S2: predominantly Jewish state, but also as a democratic state. Um, yeah, very,
14:48
S2: very polarized. Um, different from Australia in terms of many
14:52
S2: different parties, um, on the extremes and catering to different groups. Um,
14:58
S2: people here are very politically engaged, very active, just talking
15:02
S2: to ordinary people, um, at the supermarket, at cafes, they're
15:07
S2: very well versed in all the nuances and intricacies of
15:11
S2: the way the Israeli system works. They're very strategic also
15:16
S2: about their vote. Voter turnout is going to be very
15:19
S2: high even though it's, uh, voluntary. Um, and you sense
15:24
S2: a lot of, uh, anger between different groups were speaking
15:27
S2: before about secular ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis, Arab Israelis, the left,
15:33
S2: the right, um, the way people talk. There's a lot
15:37
S2: of us and them between the different factions of Israeli society.
15:42
S2: And we're going to see that on voting day.
15:44
S1: We'll be right back. So is it fair to say
15:48
S1: then that, you know, this election, it will absolutely not
15:51
S1: be won or lost on the issue of what's happening
15:53
S1: in Gaza and the road ahead, and whether Israelis support
15:56
S1: or do not support a two state solution.
15:59
S2: I know in the past, say in the 90s, this
16:02
S2: was the big divide in Israel and the big discussion
16:06
S2: about how to resolve this issue with the Palestinians. Um,
16:10
S2: right now, it's not this nation is still, as many
16:14
S2: people say, it's still traumatized by October 7th. Uh, there's
16:18
S2: no appetite right now for the creation of a Palestinian state.
16:23
S2: Even people like Ehud Barak who say they support it
16:26
S2: and it's still the right idea. They say it's not
16:28
S2: a time for any politician really who wants to win,
16:32
S2: to be proposing this right now that the public is
16:34
S2: not interested. The most realistic thing to expect is basically
16:38
S2: for things not to go backwards. Um, yeah, it's interesting
16:42
S2: for me speaking to Israelis here, uh, I was speaking
16:46
S2: to a cafe owner the other day who said he
16:49
S2: really wanted to send a message to people in places
16:52
S2: like Australia and around the world that we don't all
16:55
S2: like this government. You know, this government doesn't represent us
16:59
S2: here in places like Tel Aviv. And I asked why?
17:02
S2: Why in particular? And then he was talking about essentially
17:06
S2: Netanyahu being corrupt, that he'll do whatever it takes to
17:10
S2: remain in power. It's more about domestic issues. Um, it's
17:14
S2: not particularly anger about what happened in Gaza and the
17:18
S2: amount of Palestinians there, uh, Palestinians there who were killed. Um,
17:22
S2: you know, you do find people here who say that, uh,
17:25
S2: the war went on too long and was far too brutal.
17:29
S2: But it is not an animating issue at all in
17:33
S2: this election, and despite the opposition trying to avoid this,
17:36
S2: Netanyahu is still trying to beat them over the head
17:39
S2: with it and say that the opposition wants to create
17:42
S2: a Palestinian state and only he can prevent it. Uh,
17:46
S2: so so yeah, that's where that issue is at here.
17:49
S1: Interesting. Even though I know that Gadi Eisenkot has has
17:53
S1: said that he has ruled out supporting a Palestinian state,
17:56
S1: I guess connected perhaps in a way to this is
17:59
S1: you've just written that Arab Israelis could be the kingmakers
18:02
S1: in this election. So how so?
18:05
S2: Yeah, I think this is something I must say. I
18:07
S2: don't think many Australians would know as much about. I've
18:10
S2: been learning a lot about it here. Uh, but Arab
18:13
S2: Israelis are also, many of whom call themselves, uh, Palestinian
18:17
S2: citizens of Israel make up 20% of the population here
18:22
S2: in Israel. So they should be a big and powerful, uh,
18:27
S2: voting block. But traditionally have had a much lower turnout
18:31
S2: rates than, say, Jewish Israelis. Um, that's because of a
18:36
S2: variety of different factors ranging from apathy to a kind
18:39
S2: of opposition to participating in the Israeli system. Uh, but
18:46
S2: I've been speaking to, um, Arab Israeli voters here, and
18:49
S2: they say that crime has absolutely gone through the roof
18:52
S2: in their communities. The murder rate is exceptionally high. Very
18:57
S2: few of them are ever solved. Um, Itamar Ben-Gvir, who
19:01
S2: is one of Netanyahu's far right ministers, is in charge
19:04
S2: of the police. Um, he himself was convicted as a
19:08
S2: younger man of inciting hatred against Arab citizens of Israel.
19:13
S2: And now he's the man who is entrusted with solving
19:16
S2: these murders. So everywhere I've gone, speaking to Arab Israeli voters,
19:21
S2: they say that everything's gotten worse under Ben Gvir, that
19:25
S2: they feel absolutely neglected, that the authorities don't care about
19:29
S2: them at all. And so participation in the election is
19:33
S2: expected to go up significantly, and that's going to have
19:37
S2: a big impact on the election. The quirk or the
19:41
S2: question here, though, or the catch, is several of the
19:45
S2: main opposition parties have said that they will not serve
19:49
S2: in a government with Arab parties. Essentially, it's just become
19:53
S2: a taboo after October 7th, uh, to serve with, uh,
19:58
S2: majority Arab parties. They say they want to have a,
20:01
S2: a Zionist, uh, Jewish majority. But the polls right now
20:05
S2: suggest that neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition's bloc have
20:09
S2: a majority in their own right. And if the opposition
20:13
S2: was to team up with the Arab parties, they would
20:17
S2: have a majority. So this is a big issue that
20:20
S2: I think is really going to play out after Election Day.
20:24
S2: Eisenkot has made a pretty clear, uh, pretty clear statements
20:28
S2: about conditions he has to have from any parties about
20:32
S2: joining that that kind of seem like he's ruling out
20:36
S2: serving with them, but that could all be thrown overboard
20:39
S2: after the election if you want to, uh, if you
20:42
S2: want to form a government. Uh, yeah, I've spoken to, um,
20:46
S2: Arab-israelis here, um, a family whose son was killed just
20:50
S2: last month, and there's no sign of it being solved.
20:54
S2: And the very activated by the election, they actually think
20:57
S2: things could improve for them and their other children if
21:01
S2: there is a change of government. So it's very real
21:06
S2: for them. The stakes of this election too.
21:09
S1: Wow. And Matt, just to wrap up then, I mean,
21:11
S1: how soon will we know the results of this election
21:14
S1: and know who will be able to form government?
21:16
S2: I think it's going to be a bit different to
21:18
S2: in Australia, where we're used to. Antony Green calling it
21:21
S2: pretty early in the night, relatively early on the night. Uh,
21:25
S2: Israeli exit polls tend to give a pretty accurate summary
21:29
S2: of the results. So I think we will have a
21:32
S2: pretty good idea of how Israelis voted and whether the
21:36
S2: polls have been right. The issue then is forming a government, uh, negotiations, haggling.
21:43
S2: The president of Israel after the election goes to all
21:47
S2: the parties, ask them who they think should be the
21:50
S2: prime minister of Israel, and he will appoint someone to
21:54
S2: try and form a government. So that process, it can
21:58
S2: be quick, but if it's a bit of a deadlock,
22:01
S2: it can take a long time. As as we said before,
22:04
S2: weeks or months. Uh, we could be in a war
22:07
S2: with Iran. Anything could be happening. So some people here
22:12
S2: actually say that, you know, election Day is not the end.
22:14
S2: It's really just, uh, the beginning of the end because
22:19
S2: so much politics play out after Election Day here.
22:24
S1: Well, Matt, we are so lucky to have you there
22:25
S1: on the ground in Israel reporting on this for us.
22:28
S1: So thank you so much for your time.
22:29
S2: No worries at all.
22:36
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S1: against plastic packaging. And as polling day nears for the
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S1: looser and more racist, according to North America correspondent Michael Koziol,
23:07
S1: who is following Trump across the country as the president
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S1: desperately drums up support for an election that will determine
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S1: which party controls US Congress and shape Trump's final two
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S1: years in office. You can read more at the age.com.au
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S1: or smh.com.au. Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced
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S1: by myself and Julia Carcasole. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills.
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S1: Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to
23:39
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23:42
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23:47
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23:57
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S1: of the day's most important news in your inbox every morning.
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S1: Links are in the show notes. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris.
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S1: Thanks for listening.