Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NBA Finals Betting Update
Transcript
- 0:08Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
- 0:12Speaker 1: podcast Network. I'm Chad Normand of the Action Network. Today
- 0:15Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
- 0:17Speaker 1: Michael Padre might be a f professional better Signmon Hunter.
- 0:21Speaker 2: Hello, Simon, Chad, how are we doing? Dude?
- 0:25Speaker 1: You know I'm working on this book. And so I
- 0:29Speaker 1: was in Costa Rica last week. Spent forty hours in
- 0:34Speaker 1: Costa Rica. I was hanging out with a very high
- 0:39Speaker 1: stakes professional better much like yourself.
- 0:44Speaker 2: I couldnot get the game.
- 0:48Speaker 1: One of the NBA Finals, and like I could see
- 0:52Speaker 1: in the app, like it was.
- 0:54Speaker 2: A blowout, blowout, blowout.
- 0:56Speaker 1: So I just like went to bed and then all
- 0:58Speaker 1: of a sudden, literally I turned off the lights because
- 1:00Speaker 1: it's two hours earlier in Costa Rica, turn off the lights.
- 1:03Speaker 1: So it was nine o'clock and my phone started blowing
- 1:06Speaker 1: up about Game one and what Halliburton did in the
- 1:12Speaker 1: game against the Thunder. We're going to talk to Matt Moore,
- 1:16Speaker 1: who came out with us before the finals. Obviously the
- 1:20Speaker 1: host of Buckets did a great job breaking it down.
- 1:24Speaker 1: We're now going to preview game three. That first game
- 1:27Speaker 1: was everything I wanted it to be and I got
- 1:29Speaker 1: a lot of thoughts on how it's going to play
- 1:31Speaker 1: out the rest of the way.
- 1:33Speaker 3: Well, it does pay to watch those games live and
- 1:35Speaker 3: bet live. I literally did exactly what we're talking on
- 1:37Speaker 3: the show. I bet the number on OKC. I think
- 1:40Speaker 3: they were up seventeen or sixteen to one point through
- 1:43Speaker 3: a very small hedge on the money line.
- 1:47Speaker 4: And I did the same thing as you.
- 1:49Speaker 3: I thought it was dead because I think they were
- 1:50Speaker 3: still down by more than ten head into the fourth,
- 1:53Speaker 3: and or maybe it was even.
- 1:54Speaker 4: It might have been like five minutes left in the fourth.
- 1:56Speaker 2: I think it was fifteen, Like three minutes left, they
- 1:58Speaker 2: were down fifteen.
- 1:59Speaker 4: Whatever it was. I had the same thing as you.
- 2:00Speaker 3: I literally turn it off and that to the classic
- 2:03Speaker 3: You're not asleep, you're in bed and you're checking on
- 2:05Speaker 3: your phone because you literally you just want to make
- 2:06Speaker 3: see the money hit, and all of a sudden they
- 2:09Speaker 3: start coming back and it.
- 2:10Speaker 4: Was like just three after three.
- 2:12Speaker 3: It is why I love the NBA right now, where
- 2:14Speaker 3: it's like these these teams, if they get hot, hit
- 2:17Speaker 3: these threes, they're all such good shooters, everyone on the team,
- 2:20Speaker 3: you can't really give up on it, right, so immediately
- 2:23Speaker 3: pop back up caught that final mint of the game,
- 2:25Speaker 3: and yeah, I feel like what we talked about exactly
- 2:28Speaker 3: what Matt happened, which was, you know, they needed to
- 2:31Speaker 3: get very lucky, had the game be kind of tightened
- 2:34Speaker 3: the fourth and make big shots. And now we're once
- 2:37Speaker 3: again seeing history. We're like this, this team that no
- 2:39Speaker 3: one believed in won that Game one with a ton
- 2:43Speaker 3: of luck and a ton of skill. But it was
- 2:45Speaker 3: the exact way they needed to, right. They were just
- 2:47Speaker 3: outgunned in that game. So it was really fun. And
- 2:50Speaker 3: then I think you and I both saw Game two
- 2:52Speaker 3: and it was back to I think what everyone expected, right, Okay,
- 2:55Speaker 3: season much better team.
- 2:56Speaker 4: So it's it's a fun series going into it. I
- 2:59Speaker 4: really I had no real hope.
- 3:02Speaker 3: For you know, what the Pacers could do, but that
- 3:05Speaker 3: Game one gave me a little bit of hope. And
- 3:06Speaker 3: now it's like, all right, we have to watch game
- 3:08Speaker 3: three and four now because two two, that's a real
- 3:11Speaker 3: series if they can steal one of these games here.
- 3:13Speaker 3: So I'm really loving what Dan Bay is doing with
- 3:16Speaker 3: these small market teams.
- 3:18Speaker 1: Chad Well, I disagree. I think there's no hope. I
- 3:22Speaker 1: was explaining Matt Moore, welcome back. In, give us your game,
- 3:28Speaker 1: one game to take before we get into where we
- 3:31Speaker 1: think it's going.
- 3:32Speaker 5: Yeah, incredible job by the Pacers to hang in there,
- 3:35Speaker 5: and you could kind of sense it. I love it
- 3:38Speaker 5: when you can sense it in the building even through
- 3:40Speaker 5: the television that you're like that. You can tell the
- 3:42Speaker 5: thunder fans were like, why aren't we up? More like eh,
- 3:45Speaker 5: and they scored it's eleven. Why aren't they up by twenty?
- 3:49Speaker 5: The Pacers we had a really good discussion about this.
- 3:51Speaker 5: He actually on buckets. If you create turnovers but you
- 3:55Speaker 5: don't score on them, that mitigates a lot of the
- 3:58Speaker 5: advantage that Okay to create because their half court offense
- 4:01Speaker 5: is not stellar. It's good, it's just not like elite level,
- 4:05Speaker 5: and so they need these points off of turnovers. And
- 4:07Speaker 5: what the Pacers have done the first two games is
- 4:09Speaker 5: they've been like, no, we're gonna turn the ball over,
- 4:11Speaker 5: but you're not scoring on them. So we turn the
- 4:13Speaker 5: ball over and don't score, you don't score on the
- 4:16Speaker 5: on the subsequent possession, and it's just zero zero, little reset. Now,
- 4:21Speaker 5: over the course of a series, it's probably not gonna
- 4:23Speaker 5: go well. And that's something that Indie's gotta get better
- 4:24Speaker 5: at Halburdon. I described you on the show as like
- 4:27Speaker 5: the man carries his equipment in a wheelbarrow, just like
- 4:31Speaker 5: has to carry that in an industrial grade not one
- 4:33Speaker 5: of the ones that you get it like at not
- 4:36Speaker 5: like a lerinkiek one you pick up at Walmart. You
- 4:37Speaker 5: get industrial grade to carry around that man's equipment because
- 4:40Speaker 5: it's insane what he's able to do in these clutch
- 4:43Speaker 5: time situations. This is literally the best clutch run we've
- 4:45Speaker 5: ever seen.
- 4:46Speaker 4: Ever.
- 4:46Speaker 5: Nobody's ever hit more clutch shots.
- 4:49Speaker 4: Right.
- 4:49Speaker 1: Uh? Can we just say, did you say sub sweet subsequent?
- 4:58Speaker 5: Sub did it again? I did it again? Brandon Anderson
- 5:02Speaker 5: called me out on this. He was like, that's how
- 5:04Speaker 5: you say subsequent and I was like, oh, I said, quint,
- 5:07Speaker 5: I always thought that it was. I'd always thought that
- 5:09Speaker 5: was one of those words that you can pronounce either way.
- 5:11Speaker 5: And then I was like, no, I'll look it up, Brandon.
- 5:13Speaker 1: And it's not tomato tomorrow, potato subsequent, it's subsequent.
- 5:21Speaker 4: All right.
- 5:22Speaker 1: So my take on all this Game one to Game
- 5:25Speaker 1: two is that we saw.
- 5:30Speaker 2: The real.
- 5:33Speaker 1: Future when Oklahoma City demolished the Pacers in Game two
- 5:40Speaker 1: and they didn't let them come back, Like I tried
- 5:44Speaker 1: to stay up.
- 5:45Speaker 2: I wanted to be there for the end.
- 5:47Speaker 1: I looked at and thought, this is what it looks
- 5:51Speaker 1: like without the miracle, and I think we got a miracle.
- 5:55Speaker 2: Thunder and five.
- 5:57Speaker 4: I hear you.
- 5:58Speaker 5: This is the problem, Okase, he's zero to seven on
- 6:01Speaker 5: the road ats in these playoffs, like they are not
- 6:05Speaker 5: great on the road against the spread. Now, they could
- 6:08Speaker 5: still win this game, right, so they can still get
- 6:09Speaker 5: to the thunder and five. I'm hoping that you're right,
- 6:11Speaker 5: because that's what I bet and originally was thunder mines
- 6:14Speaker 5: two and a half. And we're down to just thunder
- 6:16Speaker 5: and five to win that bet. The issue is that
- 6:18Speaker 5: I find a lot of the things from game two
- 6:20Speaker 5: second half, so like here's one they outscored him in
- 6:23Speaker 5: the second half of that game. Oh but there's garbage
- 6:25Speaker 5: time take out the last two minutes and it was
- 6:27Speaker 5: fifty nine to fifty nine the second half of that game.
- 6:30Speaker 5: Pacers had a one to thirty five offensive rating. That's
- 6:33Speaker 5: not thunder formula. Here Thunder shooters lou Dort shooting nineteen
- 6:38Speaker 5: percent on the road in the playoffs, Like this Thunder
- 6:41Speaker 5: team is a true deform role players shoot better at home,
- 6:45Speaker 5: shoot worse on the road. Squad, That building for Game
- 6:48Speaker 5: three is gonna be ballistic. First Finals game in twenty
- 6:51Speaker 5: five years basketball crazy state, even though they've had one
- 6:55Speaker 5: of the worst attendance rates in the NBA over the
- 6:57Speaker 5: last decade. That's gonna be absolutely a crazy environment. And
- 7:01Speaker 5: it's a really big situation. I think it's probably close,
- 7:05Speaker 5: But I do think that the Pacers are in a
- 7:06Speaker 5: really good spot here, and especially with this being Thunder
- 7:08Speaker 5: minus five and a half market, like, I have a
- 7:11Speaker 5: hard time getting to a spot where I want to
- 7:13Speaker 5: bet Okac even to cover less than two possessions, given
- 7:16Speaker 5: their history of how they've been on the road, why
- 7:19Speaker 5: they haven't been as good on the road ats, and
- 7:22Speaker 5: how indieman. The spot for Indie here I think is
- 7:24Speaker 5: really good.
- 7:26Speaker 2: Well, right now, you mentioned the series prices. The prices are.
- 7:30Speaker 1: The Thunder plus two ninety to win the series four
- 7:35Speaker 1: to two, plus two ninety to win the series four
- 7:38Speaker 1: to three. The Pacers numbers are obviously higher, We're talking
- 7:42Speaker 1: much bigger numbers, but plus sixteen hundred to win the
- 7:47Speaker 1: series four to one. It's interesting to me you talk
- 7:54Speaker 1: about the Pacers as a home team in a basketball
- 8:00Speaker 1: mad state.
- 8:02Speaker 2: The Pacers have never mattered in Indiana.
- 8:06Speaker 1: You know, they had Reggie Miller, kind of interesting when
- 8:09Speaker 1: they were playing the Knicks. They made that finals, but
- 8:13Speaker 1: they've never been a team anyone in Indiana talks about.
- 8:16Speaker 1: And they've always had a magnificent stadium. That Fieldhouse is
- 8:21Speaker 1: a great place to watch a game. This team feels
- 8:25Speaker 1: like it has something a little bit different that is sustainable,
- 8:28Speaker 1: that has energy, that it has a personality, that has
- 8:31Speaker 1: a style of play that people can latch onto. It's
- 8:35Speaker 1: not just a sort of, for lack of a better term,
- 8:40Speaker 1: NFC South or AFC South team, Matt Moore, do you
- 8:44Speaker 1: sense that amongst the NBA denizens right now?
- 8:48Speaker 5: I was just about to say this is an AFC
- 8:50Speaker 5: South ass take from you, Chad, the perennial South hater
- 8:54Speaker 5: of professional sports. You know, I think I think those
- 8:58Speaker 5: crowds in the in the mid nineties at the Attendants data,
- 9:00Speaker 5: but I think they were really great. I think they
- 9:01Speaker 5: believed him in the mid two thousands with the our
- 9:04Speaker 5: test team with Ermaine O'Neil before the brawl right of
- 9:07Speaker 5: the Malice. I think that Indiana, because they've got it
- 9:10Speaker 5: one of the problems is when you've got a history
- 9:12Speaker 5: of winning in a certain sport, like Indiana's basketball program has,
- 9:16Speaker 5: then you've got a different standard for success. And Denver's
- 9:20Speaker 5: like this, I think with football, where because the college
- 9:23Speaker 5: sports have never really been relevant on any sort of
- 9:25Speaker 5: significant scale because they haven't won at a significant level.
- 9:29Speaker 5: It's it really is compared to the Broncos. Like Broncos
- 9:32Speaker 5: have all these championships, and you win, and will pay
- 9:35Speaker 5: attention to you. That's how you know Pro basketball was too.
- 9:38Speaker 5: It was We're not gonna pay attention to the Nuggets
- 9:39Speaker 5: until they win. Then they won, and now the crowds
- 9:42Speaker 5: are really good. And that's true for most places, but
- 9:44Speaker 5: these true small markets. I think you're right that there's
- 9:46Speaker 5: a difference between like Okac Okac, when they have bad teams,
- 9:49Speaker 5: their crowds still gonna be great. Portland, when they have
- 9:51Speaker 5: bad teams, crowds still great. Indiana, though, I think does
- 9:54Speaker 5: sense that there's something different about this team. This is
- 9:56Speaker 5: maybe the most fun run that we've seen an NBA
- 9:59Speaker 5: playoff hit. I have a hard time thinking back to
- 10:02Speaker 5: a team that was more fun than this one when
- 10:05Speaker 5: you count the way that they play, the comebacks, and
- 10:08Speaker 5: all the ways that they've been able to do this,
- 10:10Speaker 5: I think it does add up to something where and
- 10:12Speaker 5: it doesn't seem like the windows closing. It's not a
- 10:14Speaker 5: one year deal, because you would have thought that last
- 10:16Speaker 5: year they made the conference finals, Okay, they'll come back
- 10:18Speaker 5: to earth a little bit, and instead they got better
- 10:21Speaker 5: and made the finals this year. And even if it
- 10:23Speaker 5: did take a certain series of events, it still shows
- 10:27Speaker 5: that they're good enough to deliver when these games get tight,
- 10:30Speaker 5: and that they're made for this, and I think that's
- 10:31Speaker 5: really important in the enthusiasm I think that is building
- 10:36Speaker 5: around this Pacer squad.
- 10:39Speaker 2: So what are we doing now? Are we for one?
- 10:42Speaker 2: Are we four to two? What is your take on
- 10:45Speaker 2: how this plays out?
- 10:47Speaker 4: Yeah?
- 10:47Speaker 5: I bet Pacers or I bet Thunder four to two
- 10:49Speaker 5: yesterday plus two ninety I still make the Thunder likely
- 10:52Speaker 5: to win this series. Game series script to me feels okay,
- 10:55Speaker 5: they stole the one that instantly takes the ability for
- 10:59Speaker 5: the four to one. It's gonna be really difficult. I
- 11:02Speaker 5: just do not have a lot of faith in Okase,
- 11:04Speaker 5: given how I've seen them up close and personal on
- 11:06Speaker 5: the road in these playoffs, to take both of them
- 11:09Speaker 5: one of them will be close enough to where it's
- 11:10Speaker 5: at least a coin flip. I do not think that
- 11:12Speaker 5: Indies getting both at home. I do not think the
- 11:14Speaker 5: Thunder are getting both at home. I'm gonna play Pacers
- 11:18Speaker 5: money line game one. If it loses, I'll be back
- 11:20Speaker 5: on him in game two. I think whoever loses Game
- 11:22Speaker 5: two is gonna be a great spot to play, or
- 11:24Speaker 5: whoever loses Game three is a great spot to play
- 11:26Speaker 5: in game four. Thunder are gonna win Game five by
- 11:29Speaker 5: by margin. I'll be on alts all over the place
- 11:32Speaker 5: for Thunder Game five, regardless of series script, unless there's
- 11:35Speaker 5: an injury or a black Swan event. If Thunder win
- 11:38Speaker 5: Game three, I'm still on thundering Game five by probably
- 11:41Speaker 5: twenty or more. If they win game four, I'm on
- 11:43Speaker 5: them in Thunder Game five and by twenty or more.
- 11:46Speaker 5: PACER's Game six is gonna be a tough one. This
- 11:48Speaker 5: isnt the same as I think the Denver spot. I
- 11:50Speaker 5: think that the OKC might be in a better position
- 11:52Speaker 5: to finish it on the road in game six, and
- 11:54Speaker 5: they wear versus Denver in that series, you're gonna see.
- 11:58Speaker 5: I think a lot of adjustments. One of things I'm
- 12:00Speaker 5: really curious about is how my many adjustments does Carlisle
- 12:03Speaker 5: throw at them in this game? In game three, because
- 12:06Speaker 5: he's kept the zone very close to the vest, they
- 12:09Speaker 5: made some offensive adjustments, but they haven't done a lot
- 12:11Speaker 5: they Carlisle's script in game two was, Hey, let's try
- 12:15Speaker 5: and win, but we're not gonna show them the cards here.
- 12:19Speaker 5: I'm not playing him until I have to. We got
- 12:21Speaker 5: the one I needed to be able to stretch this out.
- 12:23Speaker 5: So the question is, like, do you rely on momentum,
- 12:27Speaker 5: home crowd better shooting in game three or do you
- 12:29Speaker 5: feel like you need to pull out the tricks, the
- 12:31Speaker 5: bells and whistles to get game three because you use
- 12:32Speaker 5: them in game three. Now they're on the table for
- 12:34Speaker 5: OKC to adjust to in game four. Your ideal would
- 12:37Speaker 5: be use momentum, energy, effort, home crowd shooting, get game three,
- 12:42Speaker 5: then throw the kitchen sink at him in game four.
- 12:44Speaker 5: That's like the script for Indie. But I still don't
- 12:46Speaker 5: think that's gonna be good enough for them to get both.
- 12:48Speaker 5: I still think the thunder and six is our most
- 12:50Speaker 5: likely outcome here after they stole game one.
- 12:53Speaker 3: Oh, we miss an opportunity here, like this is what
- 12:56Speaker 3: we live for. This team we just talked about, they've
- 12:58Speaker 3: done something in this pace of team that's never been
- 13:00Speaker 3: done before. Like they are incredibly clutch. I feel like
- 13:04Speaker 3: if this was another sport, mean you would have a
- 13:05Speaker 3: better view on it. With basketball, we're just so used
- 13:08Speaker 3: to the favorites always coming through, right, the better teams
- 13:11Speaker 3: with the better player usually win.
- 13:14Speaker 4: But this is the rare opportunity.
- 13:16Speaker 3: She feels like, Chad, this isn't Golden State or those
- 13:18Speaker 3: lebron teams. This is a very young team, first time
- 13:23Speaker 3: doing it. You know, they don't have a joker on
- 13:25Speaker 3: this team.
- 13:25Speaker 4: I know.
- 13:26Speaker 3: You know we can say they have the MVP of
- 13:28Speaker 3: the league. Yes we know that, but it's it just
- 13:31Speaker 3: feels different. Where like the Pacers, I was looking for
- 13:33Speaker 3: a reason I take them, and that game one was
- 13:35Speaker 3: so exactly what I was looking forward. It's like they
- 13:38Speaker 3: know they're not better, they know they don't have the
- 13:41Speaker 3: guys that this OKAC team does, but they have this
- 13:45Speaker 3: unique ability to believe that.
- 13:47Speaker 4: The j R.
- 13:47Speaker 3: Smith they think they're all the best shooters in the world,
- 13:50Speaker 3: and they really believe it whether they are they aren't,
- 13:52Speaker 3: And I love it. We like that confidence in that
- 13:54Speaker 3: final two to three minutes, like like Matt said, you
- 13:57Speaker 3: could feel through the TV right the thunder got so
- 14:00Speaker 3: tight and they didn't have a Kobe, a Steph Curry
- 14:03Speaker 3: someone to bail them out take a shot to get
- 14:06Speaker 3: two points. And that's what like we're talking here, is
- 14:09Speaker 3: that if they steal another one here, if they do
- 14:11Speaker 3: steal game three, that pressure on okay See in game four,
- 14:17Speaker 3: I mean, I.
- 14:17Speaker 4: Can't even imagine it.
- 14:18Speaker 3: I can't imagine them sitting there with that type of
- 14:21Speaker 3: pressure where you know they're down now two to one
- 14:24Speaker 3: on the road in an environment that Matt just.
- 14:26Speaker 4: Told us they've struggled on the road, Chad. So, I
- 14:29Speaker 4: don't know.
- 14:29Speaker 3: I feels like we're overlooking it. Are we just are
- 14:31Speaker 3: we missing it here? Should we be taking the Pacers?
- 14:34Speaker 3: Is this are we overlooking? Or is what we just
- 14:36Speaker 3: talked about like game two? Is that what this series
- 14:39Speaker 3: is like? Is okay See really that much better? Pacers
- 14:42Speaker 3: simply got lucky in game one.
- 14:43Speaker 4: It was a bit of a fluke.
- 14:45Speaker 3: So I'm I don't know what they do in this
- 14:47Speaker 3: game one a Game three here, I'm tempted to just
- 14:50Speaker 3: bet Pacers money line. It feels like a nice spot
- 14:52Speaker 3: for them to bounce back. And I feel like another
- 14:55Speaker 3: thing Matt talked about that second half in that Game two,
- 14:59Speaker 3: that's the Pacer team I expect to see, which is
- 15:01Speaker 3: a very, very smart with the ball, high flying offense
- 15:05Speaker 3: that scores buckets.
- 15:06Speaker 4: So I don't know, it feels interesting. We're already leaving
- 15:08Speaker 4: them for dead here where It's like, I don't know,
- 15:11Speaker 4: this feels like a seven to sixth type of series.
- 15:13Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take that four to two bet with okay,
- 15:15Speaker 3: see with you, Matt, But I'm also gonna throw a
- 15:17Speaker 3: four to three bet on the Pacers at you know,
- 15:20Speaker 3: last time I checked it was crazy, guys. It might
- 15:22Speaker 3: have been ten to one, so it might have come down,
- 15:24Speaker 3: but still, I mean, we're talking ten to one here
- 15:27Speaker 3: on Pacers.
- 15:27Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm with you, guys.
- 15:29Speaker 3: I'm trying to play the series price and it does
- 15:32Speaker 3: feel like a four to two okay, see, but I
- 15:34Speaker 3: see there's a window.
- 15:35Speaker 4: I think Matt Moore sees what I'm seeing here.
- 15:37Speaker 3: There's a window for a four to three Pacers Game
- 15:40Speaker 3: seven win. It just we're so due. When's the last
- 15:44Speaker 3: when's the last one we had? Matt Moore was it
- 15:45Speaker 3: Mavericks over the heat.
- 15:47Speaker 4: Was that the last big upset we had.
- 15:49Speaker 5: Cavs twenty sixteen had to be was the was the
- 15:52Speaker 5: big one Warriors was technically one in twenty twenty two.
- 15:55Speaker 5: You guys were dead on in that series. I came
- 15:58Speaker 5: on after talking to Brandon Anderson was like, it's Celtics,
- 16:00Speaker 5: They're way better, They're gonna win this series. And you
- 16:02Speaker 5: both were like, it's Steph Curry and the Warriors, Man,
- 16:06Speaker 5: what are you doing? And you were absolutely right on
- 16:08Speaker 5: that one.
- 16:08Speaker 4: But that was the same thing.
- 16:09Speaker 3: The first time Celtics have really gotten there and the
- 16:13Speaker 3: lights were very bright. That's just my biggest pause, Like
- 16:16Speaker 3: there's just something about the Pacers team. They seem like,
- 16:17Speaker 3: even though they're not that much more of a veteran team,
- 16:20Speaker 3: they just feel like they have a different type of
- 16:22Speaker 3: confidence when it's tight at the end of these games
- 16:24Speaker 3: than this Thunder team does. So I'm just I'm trying
- 16:27Speaker 3: to find some a little opening chat. This is what
- 16:29Speaker 3: professional betters do. We see cracks, We feel like history
- 16:32Speaker 3: repeats itself, and I don't know the way this series
- 16:35Speaker 3: has already gone started. It's like, okay, see has opened
- 16:39Speaker 3: the door for the Spacer's team. If it was two oh,
- 16:41Speaker 3: I'd have a totally different tuneyear. They would have a
- 16:43Speaker 3: ton of confidence heading into this game against the Spacers team.
- 16:46Speaker 3: But the fact that it's one to one, I don't know,
- 16:49Speaker 3: it feels like we're overlooking the Spacers team, where it's
- 16:51Speaker 3: like these are the exact type of dogs we love
- 16:53Speaker 3: to bet chat. So I'm just it's interesting to see
- 16:56Speaker 3: how much you're just fuck these guys. Okay, seem on
- 17:00Speaker 3: it that's the team I want to back. So I'm
- 17:02Speaker 3: just I'm shocked by your position.
- 17:04Speaker 5: I guess.
- 17:05Speaker 1: I'm just I'm a little bit swayed by looking at
- 17:09Speaker 1: this as and look, I was looking at this the
- 17:12Speaker 1: same way when the Celtics played the next and I
- 17:14Speaker 1: was dead wrong, which was if not for the Celtics
- 17:18Speaker 1: missing two or three three pointers in games won in
- 17:22Speaker 1: games in Game one, in Game two, then they're up
- 17:25Speaker 1: three to zero in that series, and we're not talking
- 17:29Speaker 1: about the Knicks as cardiac kids and finding ways to
- 17:32Speaker 1: come back from twenty points down in multiple games, because
- 17:37Speaker 1: the Celtics were clearly the better team. So the Thunder
- 17:41Speaker 1: are clearly the better team. They've got more talent, they've
- 17:46Speaker 1: got more aggressive, longer players on defense.
- 17:50Speaker 2: I love the Pacers.
- 17:51Speaker 1: We've been saying all postseason the Pacers floor is so
- 17:56Speaker 1: high because the basketball IQ for that team is so
- 18:00Speaker 1: so high. Nemhardnee Smith. Even Obi Topping when he comes in,
- 18:06Speaker 1: like is playing above and beyond. I think what anyone
- 18:08Speaker 1: thought he'd be playing at McConnell. You know, obviously Halliburton,
- 18:13Speaker 1: like they're all great, but okay, see has players that
- 18:18Speaker 1: are equally great and IQ perspective, and then better from
- 18:23Speaker 1: a talent perspective, everyone they're bringing off the bench is
- 18:27Speaker 1: better than who the Pacers are bringing off the bench.
- 18:31Speaker 1: And so I'm just thinking, Okay, the Thunder had one
- 18:33Speaker 1: collapse in a game in which they're not used to
- 18:38Speaker 1: playing in a high pressure situation like that in Game
- 18:40Speaker 1: one of the Finals, and that's all the Pacers do,
- 18:42Speaker 1: so it played to their strength.
- 18:44Speaker 3: Memoir, would you call that a collapse or they did?
- 18:46Speaker 3: They simply get outplayed by the Pacers end of that game.
- 18:50Speaker 4: Because they had shots. It didn't feel like a collapse
- 18:52Speaker 4: where it's like, yeah, you know, they just hit shots
- 18:55Speaker 4: and then they got they just got tight, like okay,
- 18:56Speaker 4: so you just could not hit a shot even their
- 18:58Speaker 4: free throws.
- 19:00Speaker 5: This guy wasn't that like the knixt Game one was
- 19:02Speaker 5: a collapse, right, Yes, this felt more like the Pacers
- 19:05Speaker 5: kept it just within range and then they did absolutely
- 19:08Speaker 5: tighten up like Jalen Williams wide open three pointer off
- 19:11Speaker 5: of Shay's split in the double miss. Shae's got that
- 19:14Speaker 5: pull up now, Shaye, I think just missed a shot.
- 19:15Speaker 5: Like I think Shake and Shade probably hit that shot,
- 19:18Speaker 5: you know, eight out of ten times on that mid
- 19:19Speaker 5: range pull pull up like his he that that pull
- 19:21Speaker 5: up from him is money. But I do think that
- 19:25Speaker 5: this is one of the things I talked about. This
- 19:27Speaker 5: is the okay See advantage in this series. Is White
- 19:30Speaker 5: chat talked about they're better, but they're better because they're
- 19:33Speaker 5: so dominant in the margins and what Indy's done in
- 19:37Speaker 5: this series, and it actually the same thing is true
- 19:39Speaker 5: for Game one. In Game two, okay S's not killing
- 19:42Speaker 5: him in the margins. Okay S killed him in Game two.
- 19:44Speaker 5: In shot variants, Pacers shot fourteen to forty from three.
- 19:48Speaker 5: They're still getting up forty three pointers against Oka See.
- 19:51Speaker 5: And in Game two with the with the whole season
- 19:55Speaker 5: on the line for oka See, Indiana missed miss shots,
- 20:00Speaker 5: good contests, good defense, but missed a ton of threes,
- 20:04Speaker 5: miss good opportunities. And okay see, on the other hand,
- 20:07Speaker 5: got twenty points from Alex Caruso, Like that's a very
- 20:10Speaker 5: tough thing for them to do, especially on the road.
- 20:13Speaker 5: This is where it gets interesting because I agree with Chad,
- 20:16Speaker 5: like they are better and it's about the margin and
- 20:19Speaker 5: whether Indy can shrink that margin from the power rating
- 20:22Speaker 5: standpoint to where it's within range. Because once it gets
- 20:25Speaker 5: within range, now this is about can you make shots?
- 20:29Speaker 5: And that's Indy. Like, Indy's the better shooting team. They've
- 20:32Speaker 5: been the better shooting team in the regular season, in
- 20:34Speaker 5: the playoffs, in half court and in the series. Like,
- 20:37Speaker 5: they are a better shooting team, but they're gotta get
- 20:39Speaker 5: it within range for them to be able to do that.
- 20:41Speaker 5: And the question is gonna be can Carlisle and the
- 20:44Speaker 5: Holmes environment open it up, because I will say it's
- 20:47Speaker 5: it's hard to blow out Okay see, if you win,
- 20:50Speaker 5: you win close. But OKAC has not been able to
- 20:53Speaker 5: blow teams out on the road, which is where they're comfortable.
- 20:56Speaker 5: That's where they're comfortable they can win these close games.
- 20:58Speaker 5: They won Game four in ever close environment really proves
- 21:02Speaker 5: something they have learned from this. This isn't like a
- 21:04Speaker 5: team where it's like, yeah, I don't know, man, if
- 21:06Speaker 5: it gets tight, I think they're gonna Like the Celtics,
- 21:08Speaker 5: I think were much more like that the last couple
- 21:10Speaker 5: of years. They won the title last year because nobody
- 21:12Speaker 5: could threaten them. Okay, see, it's like they got a chance.
- 21:15Speaker 5: But once it gets in the variance mode because of
- 21:17Speaker 5: the number, there's a lot of value on Indiana, it's
- 21:19Speaker 5: just like, can they hang on to be in that
- 21:21Speaker 5: position for the shop variants to come through for them?
- 21:26Speaker 1: You mentioned uh Carlisle earlier in the show. He's like, Yeah,
- 21:31Speaker 1: we knew we weren't going to win that game, And
- 21:33Speaker 1: I feel like that happens more often in the NBA
- 21:35Speaker 1: than any other sport. Yep, they know going in like
- 21:39Speaker 1: they're gonna compete, But do you think there is actually
- 21:42Speaker 1: something the players pull back, the coaches change strategy, Like
- 21:48Speaker 1: what does that mean they know they're not going to
- 21:50Speaker 1: win the game, and why wouldn't they try to win
- 21:52Speaker 1: the game.
- 21:52Speaker 5: So every series, he's got a rhythm and flow to it. Rix'
- 21:55Speaker 5: been in so many of these to understand it and
- 21:57Speaker 5: Now what's been amazing is a lot of the ways
- 21:59Speaker 5: to kind of see how much are they adjusting? And
- 22:01Speaker 5: what you do is you look at things like have
- 22:03Speaker 5: they changed their matchups, have they changed their rotation? Did
- 22:05Speaker 5: they tighten the rotation? Is one guy completely out? Do
- 22:08Speaker 5: they shift this around? How much have they shifted their
- 22:11Speaker 5: game plan going in from the previous game into this one.
- 22:14Speaker 5: And what's been fascinating is, like Zachlo said this on
- 22:17Speaker 5: Simmons podcast, and I completely agree with it. Like if
- 22:19Speaker 5: you talk to Indy folks, it's the same thing. They
- 22:22Speaker 5: like they game plan for the series to go long,
- 22:24Speaker 5: to have that kind of rhythm and flow, and great
- 22:27Speaker 5: coaches know you never want to be the first one
- 22:30Speaker 5: to adjust, and you want to hang onto those adjustments
- 22:32Speaker 5: as long as possible, because once you play that card,
- 22:35Speaker 5: that's it. You can't replay it because now they've seen it,
- 22:38Speaker 5: they've scripted it, they've got the counters built in for it.
- 22:41Speaker 5: You have to save them. And so I think the
- 22:43Speaker 5: thing in game two is they've stolen a lot of these.
- 22:46Speaker 5: They stole Game two versus the Nixon Cleveland without making
- 22:50Speaker 5: major adjustments, and that got them to be able to
- 22:53Speaker 5: win those series short versus having to go seven, even
- 22:56Speaker 5: when they have home court advantage, Like that's the real
- 22:59Speaker 5: difference here, Like even when they went six versus the Knicks,
- 23:02Speaker 5: it's mostly it's because Nick's had that Game five at home.
- 23:05Speaker 5: So with Carlisle, I think you go in and you say, look,
- 23:09Speaker 5: we're gonna compete. We're gonna like, these are the things
- 23:10Speaker 5: we want to clean up, but we're not gonna make
- 23:13Speaker 5: these changes that are gonna inherently screw with them because
- 23:16Speaker 5: you need the possessions where they're trying to figure them
- 23:19Speaker 5: out and adjust for it to be late enough in
- 23:22Speaker 5: the game or in the series for it to matter
- 23:25Speaker 5: in turning that result your way, because once you play it,
- 23:28Speaker 5: that's it. Most adjustments are gone by six and seven,
- 23:31Speaker 5: Like you're out of adjustments. It's just who makes shots.
- 23:34Speaker 5: And so with Carlisle, he's gonna hold back on some
- 23:38Speaker 5: of that to be able to make sure he plays
- 23:39Speaker 5: at the right time. I don't know if that comes
- 23:41Speaker 5: in game three or game four, you can look at
- 23:44Speaker 5: it and say, hey, we can't lose Game three. Then
- 23:46Speaker 5: they've retaken home court. They're gonna you know, and we're
- 23:50Speaker 5: now forced into having to win multiple games on the
- 23:53Speaker 5: road instead, do you save it for game three or
- 23:57Speaker 5: Game four? That to me is a question.
- 23:59Speaker 1: See that, that's Simon why I'm hesitant to go all
- 24:03Speaker 1: in on. Okay, See, as good as their coach is,
- 24:07Speaker 1: Mark Degnel is a really good coach.
- 24:09Speaker 2: Carlisle. I mean, he's such a wily veteran.
- 24:14Speaker 1: He's obviously won a title, He's now taken another team
- 24:18Speaker 1: to the finals. He's a brilliant not just basketball coach,
- 24:22Speaker 1: he's a brilliant NBA tactician. And so if Carlisle sees
- 24:27Speaker 1: something that makes him think, all right, this is going
- 24:29Speaker 1: to be a long series, and I'm willing to sacrifice
- 24:33Speaker 1: tactical decisions in game two because I'm going to need
- 24:36Speaker 1: them in say, game four, game five, that makes me
- 24:40Speaker 1: a little bit more inclined to at least think about
- 24:45Speaker 1: a serious price that is six or seven games.
- 24:48Speaker 3: I'm telling these little things you love about the Pacers,
- 24:51Speaker 3: And that's why I was shocking you king On here.
- 24:52Speaker 3: I was like, this feels like the exact type of
- 24:54Speaker 3: team that Chad would be suckered into betting, the type
- 24:56Speaker 3: of dog where.
- 24:57Speaker 2: It's like I don't want to be a sucker.
- 24:59Speaker 3: Well, I am I'm I'm gonna be one of those
- 25:01Speaker 3: people I bet them four to three. It's like it
- 25:03Speaker 3: would be hilarious if the Pacers do win four to
- 25:05Speaker 3: two now and I lose both bets. But everything about it,
- 25:09Speaker 3: I just was just like, oh my god. The Patriots team,
- 25:11Speaker 3: even in that blow loss. That's what gave me confidence
- 25:13Speaker 3: that game too. It's just like, there's no quit in
- 25:16Speaker 3: that team. There was no woe was me. It was
- 25:19Speaker 3: a still belief of we can get back from this game.
- 25:22Speaker 3: And I'm like, okay, okay's gonna fiel that up their
- 25:24Speaker 3: ass the entire series where even when anytime they have
- 25:27Speaker 3: any type of lead, they're gonna know there's no quit
- 25:31Speaker 3: in that other team. And you know, even like look
- 25:33Speaker 3: at our notes right here, the fact that the sports
- 25:35Speaker 3: books already have SGA and minus five to fifty for
- 25:39Speaker 3: finals MVP man More, is that not the most disrespectful
- 25:42Speaker 3: thing you've ever seen? If I was a Pacers that
- 25:44Speaker 3: would be on my bulletin board. It's one to one.
- 25:47Speaker 3: What are those odds by the sportsbooks right now? Has
- 25:49Speaker 3: he really been that dominant in this series? And that
- 25:52Speaker 3: do that much respect from the books minus five fifty
- 25:55Speaker 3: Finals MVP.
- 25:56Speaker 4: That's crazy.
- 25:57Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's also reflective of like there's a
- 25:59Speaker 5: minus five hundre it as well in the market, just
- 26:01Speaker 5: reflective of basically it's the series price because nobody else
- 26:04Speaker 5: is gonna be able to catch him. I've very I
- 26:07Speaker 5: always want to bet Jalen Williams in these spots because
- 26:09Speaker 5: of a skill set, but Shay's been able to to
- 26:11Speaker 5: kind of get there and he's gonna win if they
- 26:13Speaker 5: win the series. Shay's gonna win it because nobody else
- 26:16Speaker 5: is really going to have a case for it. If
- 26:18Speaker 5: Shae doesn't play well, they're not going to win. Like
- 26:21Speaker 5: there's just not They will not have enough offense if
- 26:23Speaker 5: Shaye Gillish Alexander does not play well, even if they
- 26:26Speaker 5: win a bunch of defensive or they're in a bunch
- 26:27Speaker 5: of defensive games. Yea, yeah, you know, Caruso is like
- 26:32Speaker 5: an interesting one after having playing game too, right, Like
- 26:34Speaker 5: that's a very good Like that's a fun long shot,
- 26:37Speaker 5: But you have to think about, like what are the
- 26:38Speaker 5: chances of them being able to win that many games
- 26:41Speaker 5: against this Pacers offense? Because the idea is like, well,
- 26:44Speaker 5: okayse he's better suited for a defensive slug fest because
- 26:47Speaker 5: they're the better defensive team. If it's a defensive slug
- 26:50Speaker 5: fest again, you're into one or two shots can win
- 26:52Speaker 5: you the game. Do you want Okac shooters or do
- 26:55Speaker 5: you want Indiana's Because I want Indiana's. And that's where
- 26:58Speaker 5: I think it gets interesting. I think Pascal Siakama is
- 27:00Speaker 5: the one that's actually like the really badly priced in
- 27:02Speaker 5: the market because when Siakam has twenty or more points,
- 27:06Speaker 5: the Pacers are seven and one straight up in ats
- 27:08Speaker 5: in the playoffs when he has when he has good games,
- 27:11Speaker 5: they win. So like, I'm a spoiler gonna be on
- 27:14Speaker 5: Siakam props for buckets in Game three, which I'm doing
- 27:16Speaker 5: after the show. So that's a look there.
- 27:19Speaker 1: Well, look, when he has twenty or more points, it
- 27:22Speaker 1: also means Halliburton is getting the ball out of his
- 27:25Speaker 1: hands quickly and getting them into their offense quickly and
- 27:28Speaker 1: finding the mismatch so Hallimburton can post, so Siakam can
- 27:32Speaker 1: post someone up and hit that mid range jumper that
- 27:35Speaker 1: he's so good at hitting. One of my favorite things
- 27:40Speaker 1: in NBA Finals every year is when a guy starts
- 27:44Speaker 1: to shine and gets his flowers a little bit and
- 27:48Speaker 1: for me that that player has been Aaron NEI Smith,
- 27:52Speaker 1: Like his defense against Brunson, the way he is so
- 27:57Speaker 1: thoughtful in moving his body and getting into position, and
- 28:00Speaker 1: his ability to shoot the ball, Like he has become
- 28:04Speaker 1: a brilliant player. Like being in New England, remembering the
- 28:07Speaker 1: Celtics drafting him and him riding the pine uh and
- 28:11Speaker 1: then he disappeared to Indian. I'm like, oh, that's such
- 28:13Speaker 1: a bummer. Like I liked his story and I was
- 28:16Speaker 1: rooting for the kid. He's turned into a straight man
- 28:21Speaker 1: playing for the Pacers. I love this guy, love him,
- 28:24Speaker 1: talk about his development.
- 28:25Speaker 5: He's phenomenal. I talked to him at Summer League after
- 28:28Speaker 5: his rookie season, and you can just tell like he
- 28:30Speaker 5: had the right mindset of what it was he was
- 28:32Speaker 5: going to work on and how much he was going
- 28:33Speaker 5: to focus. And he's had He had like two great
- 28:35Speaker 5: runs at Summer League to the point where I was like,
- 28:37Speaker 5: do you guys realize, like how good Aaron the Smith
- 28:39Speaker 5: is going to be? And then like the Celtics just
- 28:41Speaker 5: didn't play him for a team that played a lot
- 28:43Speaker 5: of guys. And he gets this opportunity in Indiana and
- 28:45Speaker 5: he is the prototypical wing that you want. You want
- 28:48Speaker 5: guys with size, physicality, length to be able to contest,
- 28:51Speaker 5: who can get over screens and can knock down the three.
- 28:54Speaker 5: And he's's been phenomenal for them, Like he's been a
- 28:56Speaker 5: great rebounder for them, he's been great steals. He's their
- 28:59Speaker 5: best on ball defender coming over those screens. He's the
- 29:02Speaker 5: reason why they were able to beat the next he
- 29:05Speaker 5: is the reason that they beat the New York Next.
- 29:07Speaker 5: He's number one A on my list for why they
- 29:09Speaker 5: got past them. His playing that series was absolutely tremendous,
- 29:13Speaker 5: and it's like a good reminder of some guys don't
- 29:16Speaker 5: pop immediately. Some guys don't walk into training camp and
- 29:19Speaker 5: you're like, Oh, that guy's gonna be awesome every single game,
- 29:21Speaker 5: even if he's not a superstar, Like, that guy's gonna
- 29:23Speaker 5: be great. Some guys that takes some time. But if
- 29:26Speaker 5: you're if you have the skill set and you can
- 29:28Speaker 5: build on it and you're patient, And this Pacers team
- 29:31Speaker 5: is such a great example of see a vision with guys,
- 29:34Speaker 5: of seeing what they could be rather than what they
- 29:38Speaker 5: can't be, And that to me has been like the
- 29:40Speaker 5: lesson of their team build and getting to the finals.
- 29:43Speaker 1: All right, then I'm starting to feel more comfortable about
- 29:45Speaker 1: at least betting OKC and six or the Pacers in seven.
- 29:50Speaker 2: Like the way you've described.
- 29:53Speaker 1: The Pacers and their intangibles, how could I not want
- 29:58Speaker 1: to root for this team, And.
- 30:00Speaker 5: Like, look, I'll tell you I feel better about OKAC
- 30:03Speaker 5: and six than seven. If this gets to seven, that
- 30:08Speaker 5: is they're gonna They've kept saying like, well we've been
- 30:10Speaker 5: at we faced adversity. We were down two one on
- 30:13Speaker 5: the road versus Denver, and I'm like, yeah, well Denver
- 30:15Speaker 5: wasn't good. Like I've covered that team, they were not good.
- 30:18Speaker 5: And to Simon's point, if this gets to seven, I
- 30:21Speaker 5: am terrified for OKAC because like house money through the
- 30:26Speaker 5: roof for the Indiana Pacers, you made Game seven versus
- 30:29Speaker 5: the sixty eight win Thunder. They went on the road
- 30:32Speaker 5: last year and won a Game seven in Madison Square Garden.
- 30:35Speaker 5: Nobody thought they could win.
- 30:36Speaker 4: This team is like the.
- 30:37Speaker 5: Perfect squad to steal a Game seven on the road.
- 30:40Speaker 5: So I feel way better about OKAC and six than
- 30:43Speaker 5: I do about OKAC and seven. If it gets to
- 30:45Speaker 5: that point.
- 30:46Speaker 2: Then that's what we're doing, Simon.
- 30:49Speaker 4: We're going to six and the seven.
- 30:50Speaker 1: We're doing six and seven. I like Pacers and seven,
- 30:54Speaker 1: I like thunder and six. I love it all right,
- 30:57Speaker 1: Matt Moore, host of Buckets, thanks for coming on the show.
- 31:01Speaker 1: Game three is at eight thirty Eastern Wednesday in Indianapolis.
- 31:05Speaker 1: The current line Indie plus five and a half total
- 31:08Speaker 1: two twenty eight and a half. Simon and I will
- 31:11Speaker 1: return with our next episode, Favorites Thursday on the Action
- 31:14Speaker 1: Number of YouTube page. Download us to Spotify, Apple Pods,
- 31:16Speaker 1: wherever you get your podse rate review, subscribe with with Spotstars,
- 31:18Speaker 1: say whatever you want.
- 31:20Speaker 2: Feedback is again until next time, Love you.
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