Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 121 - 9/17/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 121 - 9/17/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:17
Hello, and welcome to episode 121 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:23
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:26
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
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guys, and boy are you still sweating that last night's game
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from Monday Night Football, because I know I am.
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What a sweat, guys. The Falcons getting it done,
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covering the number and winning outright as a dog that only
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receives 16% of spread bets. The ultimate contrarian play.
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When you walk into the Contrarian Hall of Fame, boom,
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you're going to see a big fat photo of Kirk Cousins leading a
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come from behind victory. And boy, what a sweat it was
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because that looked like a loss First off, it looked like a win
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all game. They're covering the number of
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winning all game, then they look like they're about to lose the
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game and fail to cover the number because the Eagles took
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it down all the way across the field and could have got a first
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down and ended it. Or really what I was worried
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about is kicking a field goal and making it a six point game.
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And I'm I was staring right into the abyss of boom.
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I got a + 5 1/2. Maybe you got a six and chopped
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and found a six, but really the number one number they're most
1:33
widely available is 5 1/2. And I could just see it.
1:35
Here I am, another broken heart plus 5 1/2 and they lose by 6.
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But don't you know it, Saquon Barkley misses a little dump
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off, pass to the right, Falcons take over, Falcons go right down
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the field and score and win the game.
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So I think a big important factor to remember from last
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night, win, lose, draw, going contrarian and heavily back
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games when everybody and their mother is on Team A, you want to
1:59
be on team B. And again, it makes total sense.
2:02
You look at the Eagles, good team, Falcons didn't look good
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to start. But what do we see with that buy
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back? Again, you had at one point the
2:08
Eagles going from -4 up to -6 1/2.
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But then we started to see that line get back down to 5 1/2.
2:14
So the fact that that line really came back toward Atlanta
2:17
at the same time that nobody wanted to play them.
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Guys, when you walk into a bar and all the drunk people at the
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bar, all the drunk dudes at the bar, they're they're holding an
2:27
Eagles ticket. Yeah, because the Eagles are
2:29
great. They'll, they'll roll
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automatically. We want to be on the other side.
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So, Hall of Fame contrarian hit with the Falcons last night.
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What a sweat. Now, overall, two and two for
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the plays we talked about. Minus 0.2 units.
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Falcons were a great hit. Dodgers were a great hit.
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Disappointing ones, though, was Bijan Robinson over 30 1/2
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receiving yards. Felt pretty good about that
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early. He was close to 20 yards.
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I think it was midway through third quarter ended up landing
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on 25. So it's kind of tough when you
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fall 6 yards short and then the D backs losing three to two on a
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walk off air at Colorado. That was disappointing.
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I'll be the way guys. My night was made by that
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Falcons and I tell you what, betting on sports.
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Maybe you listen to this pod for the analytics for the
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data-driven approach. We talked a lot about numbers.
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It's easy to, I don't know, maybe get too little, little too
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nerdy, little too wonky. But the number one reason I love
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betting on sports again, you're going to have your heart broken.
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That's just part of the game. But when you are covering and
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then you you look at a loss and then it turns back into a win
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and you're going down the field. And when when Kirk Cousins found
3:35
Drake London in the back right corner, my heart was racing that
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entire drive it. That's why I love sports betting
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guys taking a position, obviously cashing a bet, but
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really not knowing what's going to happen.
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An unknown outcome. Your, your, your bet is hanging
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in the balance and you come through and you cash a ticket.
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Again, that's when I feel most alive.
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That final drive, not knowing whether you're going to win or
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lose, but obviously cashing a ticket in the end.
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That's why I love sports betting.
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So again, we talked a lot of numbers.
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It can feel very, I don't know, data-driven, but data obviously
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is what we lean on because you want to belt with your head and
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not your heart. But the emotional aspect, the,
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the, the sweat was just unreal last night.
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So that was an incredible hit with all of us 16 percenters on
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the Atlanta Falcons getting it done.
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Now, turning the page toward today, guys, obviously we got a
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Tuesday here. I have a four pack of sweats for
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you. We're going to get back to Major
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League Baseball. I have three Major League
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Baseball bats for you, all of which are pretty short favorites
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here. So let's say we can go 2 and 1,
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eek out a profit. And then I don't want to quit
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WNBA because there are, I think four or five games here tonight.
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And there's one in particular with a pretty good system match
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in a good rhythm edge where rhythm is predicting a specific
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number for the total in the betting market is, I would argue
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maybe under selling this total. So I do have a play for you in
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the WNBA. And then I want to talk some
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early college football sharp report week four in NFL sharp
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report week 3, cuz there's some early numbers that are catching
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my eye, including a couple that believe it or not, I think maybe
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you should bet right now. So we'll hit on some early
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college football NFL thoughts, see where the market is, where
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the numbers are moving, and we'll talk baseball as well as
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some WNBA. So in terms of MLB, let's go to
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Major League Baseball here to start our day.
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First game on the board for me. Let's look at a couple early
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matchups. These are all early games.
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So the first one that I jumped out to me is 6:40 PM Eastern
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Time matchup here between the Atlanta Braves and the
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Cincinnati Reds. Now going into this one, we have
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the Atlanta Braves fighting for their playoff lives as we speak.
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The Atlanta Braves come into this one with a record of 81 and
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69. And I think the motivation of
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being one game back of the final wild card spot is part of my
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reasoning for taking the Braves here tonight.
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Meanwhile, the Reds 73 and 78. Reds just took two or three at
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Minnesota. Again, the Braves split A4 game
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series at home against the Dodgers.
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So pitch a match report tonight. We have Grant Holmes, a righty
6:03
going for Atlanta. Looks like he's going to be the
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opener. He is 2 and one with a 3.79 ERA
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versus Brandon Williamson. Felt a lefty here.
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He's O&O with a 2 point O 8 ERA. What have we seen across the
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market? Well, a lot of steam hitting the
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Braves. This is the first game I noticed
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on the board just in terms of a huge discrepancy or a huge move
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from the opener to the current. This game opened Atlanta Braves,
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a very short -110 -, 115 road favorite.
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Now the Braves are all the way up to -135 even -140 so a huge,
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you know, 20 cent steam move, $0.25, even 30 cent steam move
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in favor of Atlanta tells me a lot of smart money came in on
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the Braves here for tonight. Now the Braves are getting
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around 70% of bets but nearly 80% of money.
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So a low bets, higher dollars bet split and a lot of system
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matches on the Braves. One would be Rd. favorites with
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steam versus A-Team who missed the playoffs the year before.
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This has been a great system this season. 64 and 2969% 14%
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ROI. If you just look at Rd.
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favorites getting steamed $0.10 or more, 79 and 4365 percent, 8%
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ROI and a road favorite off a loss.
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You're on the road, you're favored and you're coming off a
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loss in a bounce back spot. Those teams are 209 and one
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5557% this season with a 2% ROI. Also you look at a classic non
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division favorite. So obviously the Braves National
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League East, Cincy in the central, you have a non division
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favorite, lack of familiarity, hopefully benefiting quote UN
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quote the better team. We've also seen this line move
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toward Atlanta, the favorite and the total drop.
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Lot of these nines are now falling down to 8 1/2.
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So kind of good correlative betting wouldn't be technically
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a favorite. Low total, low total.
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You have to be 8 or less, but the total is dropping and the
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lines moving toward the favorite.
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So is this a, you know, five to two Braves game, something like
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that. I'm going to bank on Atlanta's
7:53
bats hopefully showing up. You know, I was happy last night
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because the the Dodgers blanked the Braves and got us a win.
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But overall, Atlanta's been the better hitting team as compared
8:03
to Cincinnati. Atlanta's hitting 240 on the
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year. They've slugged 188 home runs.
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The Reds are hitting 233. They've only hit 168 home runs.
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Braves do have a better home Rd. record here on the road.
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They're 39 and 36. Cincinnati is just 36 and 39 at
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home. Last 10 Braves are hitting 2/29,
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doesn't sound great, but since he is only hitting 2:16 and then
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of course, I mentioned this prior, but you know, we're at
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the tail end of the MLB season, guys.
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There's only I think 12 games left for most teams.
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Atlanta Braves are one game back in that final wild card spot.
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I believe the Mets are holding that final spot.
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So with the clock ticking here, a good team like Atlanta, you
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know, these games are very meaningful.
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Cincinnati, you know, they're five games below 500 with 12 to
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play. They're really not going to make
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the post season. So it's a big spot for Atlanta
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and it looks like the Sharps like them today with that big
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steam in their favor. So I'm going to go Braves, shop
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around. I got Atlanta at -135 another
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early game for you. 6:40 PM Eastern Time, the Twinkies
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visiting the Cleveland Guardians.
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Now going into this one. This is the fourth and final
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game of a four-game set. And we have seen actually, no,
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this is the second game here. You have the Guardians win last
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night, four to three. Guardians come in 87 and 64.
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Minnesota comes in 79 and 71. So pitching match up here for
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tonight. We have Zebby Williams going
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for, sorry, Zebby Matthews, the righty going for the Minnesota
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Twins. He's one and three with a 7.11
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ERA. He'll be opposed by Gavin
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Williams, the righty for Cleveland.
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He's 3:00 and 9:00 with a 5.23 ERA.
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So what have you seen across the market here?
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Well, just mentioned big steam on Atlanta here you got some
9:44
steam on the Cleveland guardians.
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I'm going guardians guys. This game open with Cleveland
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listed as low as a -, 120 home favorite and now Cleveland's up
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to -135 S about a 15 cent steam move in favor of the guardians.
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They're getting around 80% of bets in dollars.
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So both public and sharp support.
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There's a few things I'm going to bank on here in particular
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when it comes to Cleveland. First one is the fact that they
10:08
have owned Minnesota this season.
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They're eight and two head to head against Minnesota.
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You'd also match as a favorite low total.
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So we've seen this line move toward Cleveland as well as the
10:17
total dropping. A lot of these books open 8 1/2
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and now you're down to 8. So again, for your mono expected
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run scored more likely to come from quote UN quote that better
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team. Also, if you look at Cleveland
10:28
in particular as a favorite, when they're a chalk favorite,
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they're the best in baseball. When they're favored, they've
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gone 62 and 29. 68 percent, 19% ROI again #1 Chalk team in MLB
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home Rd. splits favorite Cleveland.
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They're 46 and 27 at home. Maybe the best or one of the
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best at least home teams in baseball.
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Minnesota just 37 and 38 on the road, Also last 10.
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Cleveland six and four. They're hitting 233 with a 2.45
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ERA. Minnesota kind of falling off at
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the at the wrong time. Right now they're holding on to
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the last wild card spot. They're just three and seven.
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Their last 10, they're only hitting 219.
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They have an ERA of 4.92. Also look at Zebby Matthews, he
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has an 8.41 ERA at night versus 1.8 O in the day.
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So he has really gotten lit up here at night and now he's
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facing a divisional opponent. I'm going to take Cleveland here
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guys. Again, good sharp steam in their
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favor. Kind of a low price here
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matching quite a few betting systems.
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They really own the head to head to head match up against
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Minnesota. Seems like a decent spot here to
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back Cleveland at home. So I'm going to go Cleveland.
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Guys, let's lay it with the Guardians, not the Tribe, the
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Guardians. I got Cleveland at -135 last bet
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in Major League Baseball again. I mentioned we have 3 short
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favorites, the final one, the Boston Red Sox.
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Now I can tell you as a Red Sox fan, wash, rinse, repeat.
11:51
You know, Red Sox, they do nothing in the offseason.
11:54
They don't spend any money anymore.
11:56
They kind of surprise you a little bit throughout the year,
11:58
then they tail off at the end of the season that they've done
12:00
that. I would say I don't know, five
12:02
of the last six years anyway, I like them tonight.
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With all that being said, Red Sox are on the road at Tampa
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Bay. Red Sox currently are, I believe
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four games back of the wild card spot with 12 left to play.
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They come in 75 and 75 minute. The Tampa Bay Rays, meanwhile,
12:19
are 73 and 77, one of their worst years in quite a while.
12:23
Feels like kind of they kind of caught up to Tampa Bay.
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They've been having winning seasons, you know, for a long
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time here with, you know, bubble gum and shoestring and feels
12:31
like they finally fell off this season.
12:32
But anyway, pitching match up for tonight, we have Nick
12:35
Pavetta going for the Red Sox. He is 5 and 10 with a 4.24 ERA.
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He'll be opposed by Shane Baz, fellow righty who's two and
12:44
three with a 3.28 ERA. But just like Atlanta and just
12:47
like Cleveland, big steam on the Red Sox.
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Red Sox open this game as low as a -, 110 Rd. favorite.
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Now they're up to -120 -, 125 some books here, even maybe
13:00
creeping up closer to -130 So one way steam movement, all in
13:03
favor of Boston. Now the Red Sox are getting
13:06
around 60% of bets, nearly 70% of dollars.
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So decent low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
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I'm going to bank on the Red Sox offense.
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Big advantage here that I noticed is Red Sox on the year
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hitting 255. They've hit 186 homers, 710 runs
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scored. You look at the Tampa Bay Rays
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only hitting two 3000 and 36 homers, 570 runs scored.
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Boston's been pretty good on the road, 40 and 35.
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Tampa Bay is a game below 500 at home, 37 and 38.
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And if you look at Nick Pavetta, he's been really good as two
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starts in September. He has a 1.5 O ERA in September.
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And if you look at Shane Baz on the road, he's been pretty good.
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2.84 ERA at home, 4 point O3. Red Sox also have a favorite low
13:50
total advantage again, now around a -, 125 road favorite
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total in this one is 7 1/2 and actually opened juiced up to the
13:57
over. And now it's kind of trending a
13:59
little bit more toward even money.
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So few amount of expected run scored.
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Again, more likely to come from quote UN quote that better team
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who was favored, which is Boston.
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And talk about the bats. The Red Sox are hitting 249
14:11
their last 10 games. The Tampa Bay Rays are hitting
14:13
226 their last 10 games. So again, two teams in the AL
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East who are probably going to both miss the playoffs.
14:19
But it looks like tonight a lot of steam likes Boston.
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And I should mention a few systems on the Red Sox.
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Short Rd. favorites -130 or less our sweet spot system. 55% this
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year. Rd. fave with steam, 65% if you
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look at Rd. faves off a loss, 57% ROI here.
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All between like 2 and 8%. So you got it all up.
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To me, this is a good spot here to back Boston at a pretty short
14:43
number. See if the Red Sox can get back
14:45
on track and get a win tonight for us.
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I'm on Boston at -125 so Boston, Cleveland, and Atlanta can we
14:52
get 2 out of 3 and eke out a winning night?
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That is the goal. Now over to the WNBA.
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Haven't bet a WNBA game in quite a while so I got 1 here for a
15:01
tonight that caught my eye and hopefully our friends at Rhythm
15:04
can help us catch this bet. So with five games on the board,
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let's go to the late night sweat 10:30 PM Eastern Time matchup
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between the Phoenix Mercury in the LA Sparks.
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Now if you want to sweat this one, if you're like me and you
15:16
still pay for cable, this one is on CBS Sports Network.
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So sure you should be able to watch it.
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Anyway, coming into this one, two teams with below 500
15:25
records. Phoenix is 18 and 20.
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They're 8:00 and 11:00 on the road.
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LA is 7 and 31 five and 14 at home.
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So obviously we have these Sparks as one of the worst teams
15:34
in the WNBA. Now one thing you notice is the
15:37
line is going toward the sparks. This game opened with Phoenix
15:40
around a four point Rd. favorite.
15:42
It's down to three, but what I'm going to do is focus on the
15:45
total here and I'm going to go over.
15:47
Let's get some points tonight, guys.
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Mercury sparks over 163. Hopefully you can find the 163,
15:53
if not, a lot of shops are at 163 1/2.
15:56
But a couple things jumped out to me #1 the fact that this
15:59
total rose. So the total open around 162 and
16:02
a half, 163. Now it's up to one 63163 1/2.
16:07
Again, not a huge 2345 point jump, but this has ticked up
16:12
from the opener. Really good bet split to the to
16:15
the over the over is only getting 63% of bets, but 89% of
16:20
money. So a great low bets, higher
16:22
dollars bet split. Now I mentioned that the line is
16:24
dropping toward the sparks. Well, important thing here is
16:27
that this is a very short spread.
16:29
So sparks are just a three-point dog at home.
16:31
And why is that important? Because if I'm on an over an
16:34
OVA, I want a short spread because theoretically it's going
16:37
to be competitive game back and forth.
16:39
Maybe you get overtime, you know, if the Mercury are favored
16:42
by 15, I'd be less inclined to take the over because, you know,
16:46
chances are they get up big, take their foot off the gas and
16:48
just end the clock. So a short home dog historically
16:51
has been good for an over because they tend to fight to
16:54
the bitter end. And again, competitive game with
16:56
maybe some overtime. Now, the other angle here is the
17:00
fact that these are two of the worst defenses in all the WNBA.
17:04
We have the Mercury in the Sparks allowing around 85 or 86
17:09
points per game this season. Cut it in half, 85 1/2 points
17:13
per game. Now that ranks 3rd and 4th worst
17:15
in the WNBA. Basically they're giving up
17:18
their bottom 4IN in defense, or you know, top four and more.
17:21
Most points allowed however way you want to look at it.
17:23
But they give up a lot defensively.
17:26
And look at the last 10 games. Sparks are scoring 81 points,
17:29
giving up 89. Last 10 games, Mercury are
17:32
scoring 75, giving up 84. So again, two teams that
17:37
definitely are not playing much defense, which is again a good
17:40
best friend of an over here. And then little cherry on top is
17:43
I opened up my Rhythm app and I went to WNBA and I went to this
17:47
game and I clicked on the total and what did I find?
17:49
I found that I have a Josh Rhythm AI model which is
17:53
predicting a final total of 168.3.
17:57
So again, if we're going over one 63163 1/2 and Rhythm is
18:01
predicting with their AI model closer to a 168 boom, that's a
18:06
little bit of an actionable edge.
18:08
You're looking at what nearly A5 point discrepancy from the
18:11
betting market to Rhythm. And then also the Rhythm
18:14
community model feature, which is a premium feature, which is
18:18
really interesting to me because you've heard me say it before,
18:21
but it really pulls all the people who have a Rhythm account
18:25
who have created their own model.
18:26
And then it looks at, OK, you know, where all these models
18:29
leaning? Are they leaning dog or favorite
18:32
or over under? Well, 76% of rhythm models that
18:36
are on the total are going over tonight.
18:39
So we've seen the total go up. We got a great bet, split 6963%
18:43
bets, 89% money on the over. We got a short home dog.
18:47
We got two of the worst defenses and we have rhythm edge again,
18:50
expecting a game closer to 168. So add it all up.
18:53
I was able to find an over 163. So shop around, try to try to
18:57
get that number if you can. If not, you're looking at over
18:59
163 1/2. But let's get some points late
19:03
night in LA now to finish up the pod.
19:06
Let's set our sights on the upcoming week of NFL and college
19:10
football. Let's start with the NFL cuz
19:11
there are a couple games that are catching my eye.
19:14
I will have my sharp report for visen.com coming out tomorrow.
19:18
I just released the sharp report for college football for today.
19:21
So let's start with NFL. Then I'll hit on some college
19:24
for you cuz there are some games I'm looking at right now at
19:26
playing. But here are a few that caught
19:28
my eye. So first one I'm looking at, we
19:32
mentioned this yesterday, but Minnesota, Minnesota at home
19:36
against Houston, we've seen this line move in favor of Minnesota.
19:41
They went from getting 3 1/2 to now getting 2 1/2.
19:43
You know, do you want to tease them up?
19:45
They're only getting 40% bets, 50% money.
19:47
Rhythm expects them or basically has a play of or a prediction of
19:52
Minnesota plus 1 1/2. You know, I'll either take the
19:55
points of Minnesota. I think there's a great teaser
19:57
opportunity. Minnesota 2 1/2 up to 8 1/2.
20:00
Looking for a dance partner. I'm going to give you some more
20:01
options here in a second, but still having my eye on
20:04
Minnesota. Now the other one that is a new
20:08
play to me is the Miami Dolphins.
20:11
Now this one looks gross. I know it's Skylar Thompson Tua,
20:14
who knows if we'll ever even see him again, But Miami's at
20:18
Seattle and it feels like this is an easy win for Seattle.
20:21
They open as a 6 1/2 point favorite at home.
20:24
Just beat the Patriots. Now they got Miami without Tua.
20:26
Seems like an easy win in cover, but the line has come back down
20:29
to Miami. Guys, Seattle open this game -6
20:33
1/2. Now the sign is down to four and
20:35
a half. And Miami's only getting around
20:37
40% bet, 60% money. So keep an eye on that one.
20:41
Miami, maybe it tease them up 4 1/2 to 10 1/2.
20:43
They can keep that thing close. But had to admit, I didn't
20:46
expect to see that line move toward Miami.
20:48
And the line is going toward Miami now.
20:50
Here's again, we talked about yesterday and I'm going to play
20:52
it right now. I actually put it in right
20:55
before the pod with the Arizona Cardinals.
20:57
Cardinals are at home against Detroit.
21:00
Detroit open as high as a four and a half point Rd. favorite.
21:03
The line is down to three. What I like about Arizona is the
21:06
lines moving in their favor. It's a 5050 line move.
21:09
But really, we talked yesterday about kind of thinking through
21:13
when to place a bet. You want to bet it early, you
21:16
know, because you think you're getting a good number.
21:17
Do you want to wait it out? You know, get some injury
21:19
reports, get some more information, let the bets build
21:21
up. I only bet games really early in
21:24
the week if I feel like this is the best number we're going to
21:27
get. And it looks to me like the
21:29
three on Arizona is the best number you're going to get.
21:31
So I officially just put in Arizona +3.
21:34
Now, why am I saying it'll probably be your best number?
21:37
I could be wrong. Maybe it goes back up to 3 1/2.
21:39
But as of right now, all these shops across the board, painted
21:43
across the board are juicing up Arizona +3.
21:45
So if you look at all the Arizona plus threes, they're +3
21:49
at like -115 -, 120. And I even see one book that's
21:52
down to 2 1/2. So we all know how important key
21:55
numbers are. You know, if Arizona ends up
21:57
losing by three, I got to push that instead of lose by getting
22:01
a three right now, looks like you will be able to, you know,
22:03
push instead of lose a three-point loss because it does
22:07
look like it's getting down to 2 1/2.
22:09
So based on that juice price, if you like Arizona, you probably
22:12
don't want to wait much longer. And remember Kyler Murray as a
22:14
dog, 26 and 14 against the spread, 65% in his career.
22:19
So I officially put in Arizona +3 today.
22:22
Another game that I am looking at putting in very quickly very
22:27
soon here because I'm getting some Deja vu.
22:30
Kansas City and Atlanta, this is a Sunday Night Football game.
22:34
We all know how great the Chiefs are.
22:36
Atlanta again had a great cover for us last night, but Oh my
22:40
God, Atlanta once again is extremely unpopular.
22:44
The Kansas City Chiefs as of right now for the Sunday night
22:46
game are getting 83% of spread bets.
22:50
Remember last night you had, what was it, 84% of spread bets
22:54
on Philly? So everyone and their mother is
22:56
on Kansas City. But guys, this line is coming
22:59
back toward Atlanta. Atlanta Open getting plus 4 1/2.
23:02
The line is down to 3 1/2 now. The reason why?
23:05
So I definitely be an Atlanta play for me.
23:07
You give me a contrarian team getting less than 20% in a
23:10
primetime game. That's an auto bet.
23:13
I did notice, though, that the juice is pretty much even -110
23:16
both sides. So I'm going to wait this thing
23:19
out. I'm definitely going to be on
23:20
Atlanta, but doesn't get back up to four.
23:22
Whole point being is, unlike Arizona, who's really juiced up
23:26
looking like the three is going to go to 2 1/2, we're even -110
23:30
on the 3 1/2 with Atlanta. So that tells me that maybe you
23:32
don't have to bet it right now. You could wait it out a little
23:35
bit. If you want to play the 3 1/2,
23:37
I'm not going to argue with you there.
23:38
There's a good rhythm edge rhythm is only predicting
23:40
Atlanta plus 0.7, but I'll be a primetime dog.
23:44
Extremely contrarian, top contrarian play of the week.
23:46
I'm definitely going to be on Atlanta.
23:49
The question is, do you want to take the 3 1/2 now?
23:51
Or maybe you get the four again? I'm not going to argue with you.
23:54
I'll I'll give it another day. I'd hate to wake up tomorrow and
23:58
see it down to three more. I think about it.
24:00
Maybe I should grab Atlanta right now.
24:01
Either way, I'll be on Atlanta. Whether it's now or later,
24:05
that's a choice you can decide for yourself, but I will be on
24:09
the the Atlanta Falcons again, only 17% bets, but the lines
24:13
already moved in their favor. Now over to college because I
24:18
again, I just wrote the sharp report for visen.com.
24:20
Here are a couple college games that caught my eye.
24:23
First one being USC at Michigan. I'm looking at Michigan and the
24:28
points here, guys, Michigan is at home against USCUSC comes in
24:32
two and O they're ranked 11th. Michigan's two and one, they're
24:35
ranked 18th and everybody's betting USC in this one.
24:38
USC is getting 83% of spread bets.
24:41
But USC actually open as a 6 1/2 point favorite and the lines
24:44
down to 5 1/2. So Michigan to me, good
24:48
opportunity here to go contrarian.
24:50
They're only getting 17% of bets in one of the most heavily
24:52
backed games of the day. They would also be a dog in a
24:55
low total game. But the angle here is some of
24:59
these books are juiced up toward USC like it may go back to six.
25:02
So I'm going to wait it out and see if I can get Michigan +6.
25:06
But again, it's an obvious play where everyone's taking USC
25:09
lines falling toward Michigan. Michigan looks pretty sharp for
25:11
me. Arizona State at Texas Tech
25:15
Arizona State comes in three and O don't remind me.
25:18
I had Texas State last week in Arizona.
25:20
RIP my heart out and dance to the beat.
25:22
But they're now playing Texas Tech who's two and one and
25:25
everyone is backing Texas Tech here.
25:27
Texas Tech is getting 67% of spread bets, but they open -3
25:31
1/2 and the lines down to three even though they're getting 2
25:34
out of 3 bets. So I'm liking the Sun Devils in
25:37
this spot now. You got to hold out for the
25:39
hook. 3 1/2 is critical here. I'm going to wait this thing out
25:43
because they are juiced up toward Texas Tech.
25:45
You may be able to wait and get that hook again, but I am
25:47
holding out for a Arizona State Plus 3 1/2 short Rd. dogs
25:51
getting 4 or less. Pretty good grinder system.
25:54
It's 54% against the spread since 2012.
25:56
There's a rest. First tired advantage.
25:58
Arizona State played on Thursday, Texas Tech played
26:01
Saturday, and Arizona State has the much better defense.
26:03
They've only given up 58 points this year.
26:06
Texas, Texas giving up 109. So I am looking at a Arizona
26:09
State play, but again, I'm holding out for Sun Devils in
26:12
the hook. Next one for you.
26:15
This is a game that if you can get a hook, I'm going to play it
26:19
right now, Kansas State and BYU. So Kansas State comes in this
26:24
one, three and O ranked 13th. BYU is also three and O, but
26:28
they're unranked. But this one opened Kansas State
26:30
-7 1/2. And now most shops are down to
26:34
seven, even though you're getting 73% of bets on Kansas
26:38
State. So everyone's playing K State,
26:40
but this line's coming back to our BYU.
26:43
Now BYU is only getting 27% of bets but more than 50% of
26:46
dollars. And the important thing here to
26:49
know is it's a prime time game or a late night sweat.
26:52
It's 10:30 PM Eastern Time. It's on ESPN, so it's going to
26:55
be one of your most heavily bet games of the night.
26:57
This is your chase game. Everyone's hammered at the bar
27:00
and hopefully the public's had a bad day and they chase it and
27:03
say, oh, let me get it all back with K State.
27:05
However, this line is going toward BYU, so I like the spot
27:09
toward BYU. Unranked, first ranked,
27:11
contrarian, low bets, higher dollars, heavily bet late game
27:14
and the lines going in their favor.
27:16
If you can find a hook right now, I'm playing BYU right now.
27:20
I was able to find BYU at +7 and 1/2 at -120 again key #7 you
27:26
lose by 7. You want to cover with the seven
27:28
and a half, but it's going to be rocking at BYU Late night sweat
27:32
here. And this is again, right up my
27:34
alley in terms of a unpopular dog with a line move on ranked
27:37
first rank. So if you can find a hook, I'm
27:40
playing BYU 7 1/2 right now. You can wait it out.
27:44
Maybe if you want to even buy it up.
27:45
I'm not going to argue with you too much because you are at a
27:48
lot of books like -7 -, 115 or some shops at least are -7 -,
27:54
115 toward K State. So you could take BYU +7 at -1 O
27:59
5 up to plus 7 1/2 at around -120.
28:02
But either way, BYU on the hook. That's what that 1 is really
28:05
catching my eye. Next one that caught my eye,
28:07
Arkansas and Auburn, 3:30 PM Eastern Time game.
28:11
Arkansas comes in two and one. Auburn's also two and one.
28:15
We saw this game open Auburn around a four point home
28:18
favorite. Now it's down to 3 1/2.
28:20
Even some shops going to three. So I'm like in Arkansas here,
28:23
lines moving in their favor. Now they are getting 58% of
28:26
bets, which is slightly public, but they're getting 74% of
28:30
dollars. So maybe slight public line
28:32
move, our slight public support, but heavy respected money, low
28:36
bets, higher dollars bet split short Rd. dog four or less 54%
28:40
against the spread or last decade conference dog, both from
28:44
the SEC. So that kind of built in
28:46
familiarity rivalry aspect. Maybe this is a very tight game
28:49
where again, if you're playing Arkansas, you got to get the
28:51
hook, you got to get 3 1/2. Razorbacks are a dog who can
28:54
score system match. They've scored so far this year,
28:57
138 points. That's the fifth most in the
28:59
SEC. So the fact that we have
29:02
slightly 5050, slightly a little bit more toward Arkansas, but
29:06
big money in a line move. I'm like in Arkansas, guys.
29:09
So we can still find the hook, 3 1/2.
29:11
I'm taking Arkansas at 3 1/2. So just to wet your whistle
29:15
because I know after last night and what an incredible sweat
29:18
that was with the Falcons, we're we're waiting for more football.
29:22
You don't have to wait too long. Obviously, we have the Patriots
29:25
and The Jets coming up on Thursday and we do have another
29:29
college game on Thursday as well.
29:31
But just to get you excited for some early sharp line moves and
29:35
maybe some games you might want to put in sooner rather than
29:37
later. But anyway, guys, that about
29:39
does it for episode 121 of the All Systems Go sports Betting
29:42
podcast powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
29:45
where we wrap things up. And I start by asking a favor of
29:48
you. Could you please do me a big
29:50
favor and give this podcast a five star review?
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If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, just click five
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stars. If you want to leave a nice
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If you want to click the follow button, that'll be fantastic.
30:01
That way you'll be alerted as soon as it drops each day.
30:04
But a five star review would go a long way to helping us
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continue to grow and continue to rise up the charts.
30:10
And I appreciate you guys taking the time out of your day to
30:12
sweat these games and listen to these breakdowns with me because
30:16
I always feel like it's just me and some friends at the bar
30:18
talking sharp line moves. So thank you all for for
30:21
listening each day. Secondly, if you enjoy the style
30:25
of betting, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, looking at
30:29
what the market is doing, what is it telling us?
30:31
What kind of clues is it providing?
30:34
How did the line where did it open?
30:35
How did it move? Where are the bet splits bets in
30:37
dollars? Where's the public?
30:38
Where are the sharps? Where are the system matches?
30:41
Again, if this style of betting appeals to you, maybe you never
30:45
in your wildest dreams would have taken Falcons in the points
30:47
yesterday and now you go you've gone contrarian and you've been
30:49
opened up to a whole new world of betting against the public.
30:52
If any of this betting speaks to you or you enjoy this pod, you
30:56
want to let me know you appreciate the hard work that I
30:58
put in hosting each day. Then guess what?
31:01
Go learn more about data-driven betting and make my day make me
31:03
happy by buying my book. That's right, I'm an author.
31:07
I wrote a book. It's called the everything guide
31:09
to sports betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
31:12
the Everything Guide to Sports Betting, pick up a copy for you
31:15
or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
31:17
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
31:19
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
31:22
action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet in person or
31:24
online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
31:27
management plan. It's all included and the
31:29
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
31:31
So pick up a copy for you or a buddy or a friend and guess
31:34
what? Bring it to the book, I'll sign
31:36
it for you and I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale next.
31:40
Have you done your homework? Have you signed up for a 7 day
31:44
free trial of rhythm or juice Riddle?
31:46
Well, if you haven't done it yet, I want you to guys.
31:48
I want you guys to go do that today.
31:50
You can do it by clicking the bio, the custom links that are
31:53
located in the description of this podcast.
31:56
You'll Scroll down, you'll see the description of today's pod.
31:59
It'll say something like an episode 121 Josh dishes out, you
32:04
know, a four pack of sweats, 3 MLB, one WNBA.
32:06
OK, go below that, Scroll down. You're going to get a link to
32:09
Rhythm and a link to Juice Reel. You got to use those links so
32:12
that the teams at Rhythm and Juice Reel know that I refer to
32:15
you, which is important. But if you haven't known yet,
32:18
Rhythm is great for their data-driven models and
32:21
predictions. We can compare their predictions
32:24
based on, again, data, the head and not the heart to what the
32:27
betting market is doing. We can act like wise guys
32:29
playing discrepancy plays. We can sweat player props and
32:33
then also when it comes to Juice Reel, we can either follow the
32:36
Robo Jackson best bet picks each day Robo is 2 and O as he
32:40
overlapped with us on the Dodgers and the Falcons, or you
32:44
can take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
32:47
Sharp mush plays. You can sync up your sports
32:49
books get a running report card of your action.
32:51
It's all included with both rhythm and Juice Reel 2 apps
32:54
that I love that help me win. I know they can help you win as
32:57
well. Anyway, that about does it.
32:59
Another pot here in the books. Episode 121, whether I see you
33:04
at the Encore in Boston Play Ridge Park Casino MGM in
33:07
Springfield, where they see at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
33:10
Twin River and around the brook in New Hampshire.
33:12
Out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
33:14
Where Billy Walter sends his number runners.
33:16
Where the lowest use possible is found at the South Point.
33:19
Sweat and sharp contrarian plays.
33:20
Jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
33:21
When you catch a big ticket, you're going to walk up to me.
33:24
You can show me a nice Dodgers ticket from last night.
33:26
But oh man, oh man, what a sweat.
33:29
That's why you love sports betting.
33:31
Again. I've had my heart broken with
33:32
bad losses, but that feeling of the Falcons coming down the
33:37
field to score and win the game and cover unparalleled on the
33:41
16% side. So all you 16 percenters out
33:44
there, show me the Falcons ticket.
33:46
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
33:48
you. We'll post about the book.
33:49
Sweat some sharp contrarian plays all night long.
33:52
So wish you the best luck. Everyone have a great Tuesday.
33:55
Got a four pack tonight. Can we find a way to get three
33:57
out of four? And he got a winning night.
33:59
That is the goal, but as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
34:02
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
34:04
house, always be with the smart money, never against it.
34:07
Will smart money when every time?
34:08
Of course not. No such thing as a locker
34:10
guarantee anything can happen in a one off.
34:12
But here's the thing, if we can consistently stay true to the
34:15
model that with our head and not our heart, against the public,
34:18
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get
34:22
some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
34:24
to be good long term. So enjoy the sweats tonight,
34:27
guys. Again, how about those Falcons?
34:30
Unbelievable. Have a great night, everybody.
34:32
I'll see you tomorrow for episode 122 of the All Systems
34:36
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
34:39
Good luck.