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2025 Western States Race Preview & Fantasy Picks · Let's Talk Trail Running

• 0:01
  hello hello hello and welcome back to let's talk trail running
• 0:04
  this is your host
• 0:05
  rob crosser and we've got a very exciting episode it is the
• 0:09
  week that all trail
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  running fans especially u.s trail running fans look forward to
• 0:14
  in the calendar it
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  is the week of western states that last weekend in june uh in
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  auburn california
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  SPEAKER_01: starting in tahoe and ending in auburn
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  the endurance capital of the world is what they call it which
• 0:28
  is kind of funny but
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  um yeah western states week uh we just came off of a huge
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  another huge weekend also
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  at tahoe broken arrow hope everyone did good on their picks
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  there i think the first
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  two races i did pretty mediocre on the last one i did pretty
• 0:41
  well and despite all
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  that i still dropped out of the top 10 and 11th overall in the
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  fantasy free trial
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  SPEAKER_01: picks
• 0:46
  So as you guys know,
• 0:47
  this is the show where we talk about upcoming trail races.
• 0:50
  We also help you guys make your free trail picks where you can
• 0:53
  play fantasy free trail.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: And that's fantasyjotfreetrail.com.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks to the awesome guys at Free Trail.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 1:02
  you can basically become more invested in the sport and root
• 1:06
  for your favorite
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: people pick.
• 1:07
  and hopefully do really well and show off your trail knowledge
• 1:12
  that you know more
• 1:13
  than other trail fans about who's racing and who you think is
• 1:16
  going to win.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: So totally free to play, totally fun to play, and totally worth playing.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_01: You can also make fantasy leagues and things like that.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, we're coming off Broken Arrow weekend.
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  I think the 23K was pretty predictable and a lot of people had
• 1:29
  really high scores.
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  SPEAKER_01: I know I had five point getters in both the men's and women's side.
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  SPEAKER_01: I think the VK was a little bit tougher to predict.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: And then the 46K went about as planned in my mind.
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  SPEAKER_01: It seemed like they had to pull people off the course because of snow and
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_01: lightning,
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  SPEAKER_01: which is crazy.
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  SPEAKER_01: Hilarious considering it was like the summer solstice,
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  SPEAKER_01: but that is the case sometimes in mountain races.
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  SPEAKER_01: So hope everyone enjoyed the Broken Arrow weekend.
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  SPEAKER_01: And I am beyond excited to talk about Western States.
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  SPEAKER_01: This is probably one of my favorite races of the year.
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  SPEAKER_01: Always the most exciting to talk about.
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  SPEAKER_01: Super competitive, despite being kind of limited to 380 or so runners.
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  And we're really seeing lots of international and worldwide
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  talent coming to it
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  SPEAKER_01: thanks to the increased golden ticket series to international.
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  I know it's been kind of happening for the past 10 or 15 years
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  and I haven't been
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  SPEAKER_01: in those sports that long,
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  SPEAKER_01: but I feel like it's really especially happened in the past.
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  SPEAKER_01: Three to four years.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: And with that being said,
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  one of the things I want to point out and one of the things I
• 2:26
  kind of want to
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  emphasize and that I've noticed in my past couple of years of
• 2:29
  watching Western
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  SPEAKER_01: States,
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  SPEAKER_01: but also picking for it,
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  SPEAKER_01: it's just kind of the proliferation of Western athletes,
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: excuse me,
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  of international athletes in the Western field and how many
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  international athletes
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  SPEAKER_01: have been in the top 10.
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  SPEAKER_01: So I was kind of going through the numbers and I was looking at that.
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  SPEAKER_01: And in 2021, we had zero men from international men in the top 10.
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  but four females and then 2022 we had two men and six females
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  international uh in
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  the top 10 2023 five on the men's side four on the female side
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  and then last year
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  three men and six female um so i think we're kind of at a point
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  in competitive
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  competition wise that i think you'd be hard pressed to see
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  probably fewer than at
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  least three on each side but as many as five or six obviously
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  past uh results are
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  SPEAKER_01: no
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  I mean,
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  it can kind of help guide your predictions,
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  but it's no indication of future results.
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  Just because some team has never won a series after being down
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  this much doesn't
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  SPEAKER_01: mean it never happens.
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  SPEAKER_01: Although we can kind of look at it as guidance to help us make decisions.
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  SPEAKER_01: With that being said,
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  SPEAKER_01: some of the themes of this year's Western States,
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  SPEAKER_01: we had some really noticeable drops with some really big names,
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  SPEAKER_01: mostly on the men's side.
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  SPEAKER_01: And then we had some big drops on the women's,
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  SPEAKER_01: but mainly due to pregnancy deferrals and things like that.
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  So on the men's side,
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  we obviously were devastated to hear Jim's not going to be
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  racing.
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  SPEAKER_01: Also devastated to hear Hayden's not going to be racing.
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  SPEAKER_01: Who else am I missing on the drops?
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  SPEAKER_01: Jim and Hayden are the first two that come to mind.
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  SPEAKER_01: And then on the women's side,
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  we had Rachel Drake and Leah Yingling just both announcing that
• 4:00
  they're going to do
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  SPEAKER_01: a pregnancy deferral,
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  SPEAKER_01: which is awesome for them.
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  SPEAKER_01: Am I blanking on somebody?
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: Why am I blanking?
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Jim and Hayden are the first two that come to mind for dropping.
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  SPEAKER_01: And I know I'm missing somebody, or I think I'm missing somebody.
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  SPEAKER_01: But anyways, yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: And in my opinion, on the female side, there is no clear favorite.
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  And I think the female side is actually a little bit more
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  interesting to talk about.
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  Then the men's side,
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  but with the men's side,
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  we've got the GOAT here,
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  Kylian Jornet.
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  SPEAKER_01: I think there might be some question marks around him for some people.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe not question marks,
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  but they didn't see what they thought they were going to see at
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  the vertical ascent
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  and might have a little bit more doubt than they would have
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  otherwise if he had won
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  SPEAKER_01: or run to his potential there.
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  SPEAKER_01: So, um, other notes that I had on Western States 2025.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, so on the female side, I said, no clear favorites.
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  SPEAKER_01: Uh,
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  we got a lot of really strong runners and we got some females
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  that have some really
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  SPEAKER_01: fast times here,
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  SPEAKER_01: but there's no Katie or Courtney last two years.
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  SPEAKER_01: We've had Katie and Courtney,
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  and I would say that they were kind of the odds on favorite
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  Courtney two years ago,
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  SPEAKER_01: set our course record,
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  SPEAKER_01: blew the field away,
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  SPEAKER_01: finished sixth overall in the total field.
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  SPEAKER_01: And then last year,
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  SPEAKER_01: Katie ran out front from the gun,
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  but the men ran so much faster that she only got 12 despite
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  only being like
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  entered 15 minutes off courtney's uh all-time performance in
• 5:14
  2023 so without those
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: two in the field i think we are seeing lots of very interesting yeah very
• 5:21
  interesting racers to choose from and um that it could be a
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  pretty close race so um
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  let's see what else um race dynamic wise i think there's
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  probably a few ladies that
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  SPEAKER_01: will come out hard and we'll probably be in front of everyone
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  probably similar to Black Canyon in my opinion I think that
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  Riley and Tara Dowell
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  would be kind of gunning from the front along with potentially
• 5:41
  somebody like Len
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  Chen or maybe even Heather Jackson we haven't seen her do that
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  as much I also think
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  that Caitlin Fielder could be up there running pretty fast so
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  and then let's see
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think that's kind of the way it's going to roll.
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  SPEAKER_01: I think there'll be a couple of people pushing out front.
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  SPEAKER_01: And my guess would be Riley and Tara will be up there.
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  SPEAKER_01: Caitlin potentially as well.
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  SPEAKER_01: Lin Chen as well.
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  Maybe somebody like the Vietnamese runner,
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  Hoa Ha Thi,
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  or however you say her name.
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  SPEAKER_01: Let's see.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
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  SPEAKER_01: So looking at this woman's field, it's super duper deep.
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  I was counting and I counted 23 people that I think have the
• 6:21
  ability to be in the top 10.
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  SPEAKER_01: So we're going to talk about them.
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  I'm going to kind of go in order of who I think has the most
• 6:27
  potential,
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  kind of the favorites.
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  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to kind of go favorites up front,
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  both on the men's and women's side of people who I think have
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  the most likelihood
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  SPEAKER_01: of being in the top five.
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  SPEAKER_01: And then as it kind of goes on,
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  I'll talk about the manners of each individual runner and kind
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  of what looks
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  SPEAKER_00: impressive with regards to the racing.
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  SPEAKER_00: So.
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  SPEAKER_01: So with that being said, first on my list is Riley Brady.
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  And if I would say if you had to put your money on one favorite
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  and who it might
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  SPEAKER_01: be,
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  SPEAKER_01: I'd probably have to go with Riley.
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  Riley's coming off like really crusher performances with a
• 6:58
  smashing the course
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  SPEAKER_01: record at Black Canyon 100K.
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  SPEAKER_01: And then last year running a really,
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  really good race at Javelina where she won pretty decisively
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  and led the race the
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  SPEAKER_01: whole day.
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  SPEAKER_01: We have a lot of females who have done really great at Western States,
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  SPEAKER_01: but few who I feel like could really crush it.
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  SPEAKER_01: And Riley feels like one who could really crush it.
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  SPEAKER_01: And this is despite not having had success at Western in the past.
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  It seems like a lot of Riley's issues in the past were mainly
• 7:21
  due to nutrition
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  SPEAKER_01: issues,
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  SPEAKER_01: which it sounds like they've dialed in and figured out since then.
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  SPEAKER_01: And I imagine they're going to be doing tons of heat training.
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  SPEAKER_01: Riley also did a two-note race at
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  the quad rock 50 miler not too long ago and one along with
• 7:33
  their coach david broach
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  um but yeah i mean it feels like riley has kind of the fitness
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  the swagger the it
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  factor to hit a home run and what would be their second western
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  states finish um
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  because they also finished in 2023 i think it was um yeah and
• 7:47
  then last year
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  SPEAKER_01: Had a rocky year with back-to-back DNFs at CCC and Canyons,
• 8:00
  but it seems like since then they've just been on a roll and
• 8:02
  also signed to Nike
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  SPEAKER_01: recently.
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  So I think Riley is probably one of the favorites,
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  if not potentially the favorite of the race.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, there's a right up there.
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  SPEAKER_01: Next name on the list is Fuzhou Zhang,
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  SPEAKER_01: Chinese athlete for Hoka,
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  SPEAKER_01: who has been splendidly impressive these past couple of years.
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  She's riding a six race win streak in Asia,
• 8:21
  going all the way back to her DNF at UTMB last year.
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  SPEAKER_01: So she's kind of on the heater,
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  has been on a roll and has won a ton of stuff that she's raced
• 8:27
  since then.
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  SPEAKER_01: In some people's books,
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  she might be the favorite coming back because she has the
• 8:33
  fastest time out of any
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  SPEAKER_01: of these female starters on the race line this year.
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  SPEAKER_01: And she got a second place last year just behind Courtney in like 1620,
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  SPEAKER_01: which is the third fastest time ever,
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  SPEAKER_01: only behind Katie and Courtney.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_01: in the past two years when they won it.
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  So she also got fourth at UTMB in 2023 and will definitely be
• 8:51
  somebody who is exciting to watch.
• 8:53
  And I think she is a very,
• 8:54
  very strong pick for a top five and potentially even winning
• 8:57
  it.
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  The one question mark that I kind of have is I don't know if I
• 9:00
  see her front running it.
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  I mean,
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  she was kind of in no person's land,
• 9:03
  no woman's land last year because she was
• 9:06
  basically in the gap between katie and then her and then the
• 9:10
  rest of the field with
• 9:11
  like four through three through seven being super tight so um i
• 9:15
  don't know if she's
• 9:15
  going to come out and race super hard like i mean she ran a
• 9:18
  phenomenal race last
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  year but i don't know if she knew because it was a little bit
• 9:22
  easier knowing that
• 9:22
  somebody was kind of up in front and could potentially blow up
• 9:25
  or if it'd be more
• 9:26
  alluring more daunting if she's like kind of going out and just
• 9:29
  leading the whole
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  SPEAKER_01: way so
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see about that.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: Next one on the list is going to be Esther Chilag.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: She's a Hungarian mom who lives in Hong Kong,
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: runs for Hoka,
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: and has kind of quickly become a fan favorite.
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  SPEAKER_01: She's had two really good Western States races in two tries,
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  SPEAKER_01: and now she's bumped up to the Masters category,
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_01: so she could be also going after the Masters course record on the course.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: Currently, it's held by Eden Nielsen, who ran in like 16...
• 9:56
  uh 48 last year i want to say um and she ran into third place
• 9:59
  last year and that
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_01: was a really tight third through sixth uh so she ran
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: Third place two years in a row, actually.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_01: So in 2023,
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_01: she was behind only Courtney and Katie in 1709,
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: which turned a lot of heads and woke a lot of people up.
• 10:11
  And then she doubled down on that performance last year with
• 10:13
  another third place,
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: but this time in 1642.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_01: And that was at 39 years old.
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  SPEAKER_01: So she seems to have this race dialed.
• 10:19
  Her only race so far this year is a win at 100K in Australia at
• 10:23
  the end of March.
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  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, I think she's a super strong pick for top five.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_01: She doesn't really seem to miss this race.
• 10:29
  And even though she doesn't race a lot,
• 10:30
  when she shows up,
• 10:31
  she is on point.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: The only thing she's had trouble with in the past is UTMB,
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_01: but it seems like Western is kind of really her cup of tea.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_01: And she's just a really strong, resilient, fast runner.
• 10:42
  uh next female and somebody who i'm really excited to see race
• 10:44
  and i think as the
• 10:45
  potential to really kind of knock it out of the park on their
• 10:47
  first try and we're
• 10:48
  going to talk about that kind of as a theme uh in my opinion
• 10:52
  experience at western
• 10:52
  states is pretty important but i would say every year we see a
• 10:55
  couple of athletes
• 10:56
  that kind of race western for the first time and they're racing
• 10:58
  in the top 10 i
• 10:59
  think last year on the men's and women's side we had three
• 11:02
  athletes that were
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_01: racing western for the first top uh for the
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_01: or excuse me, for the first time finishing the top 10.
• 11:08
  I think on the women's side,
• 11:09
  we had Fu Zhao and I have this list somewhere.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think we had Fu Zhao.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: Let me find it.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: I'll just pull it up here.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: Last year, we had Fu Zhao for sure.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_01: All right, I'll find it anyways.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah,
• 11:34
  three on the men's and three on the women's got top 10 despite
• 11:38
  racing Western for
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_01: the first time last year.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_01: I have the list and I'll find it.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's on my men's preview, so I'll go over to there.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, I mean, Caitlin Fielder is a Kiwi crusher from New Zealand.
• 11:47
  She lived in Adora with her pro cyclist partner and she hand
• 11:52
  makes some of the
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_01: sickest cycling shoes out there.
• 11:55
  I saw that she was making some custom designs for like Tadej
• 11:57
  Pogacca and all these other people.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: And yeah, in my opinion, she out of
• 12:01
  probably both the men's and the women's side is probably the
• 12:05
  most likely first-time
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_01: runner to win it all in this year's field.
• 12:10
  um last person who i can think of who did that in a similar
• 12:13
  type of fashion was
• 12:14
  adam peterman when he made his debut in 2022 at the 100 mile
• 12:18
  distance for western
• 12:19
  and won it and he also did his first 100k at canyons and won it
• 12:24
  so i think that
• 12:25
  caitlin is that type of athlete she's super fast she's super
• 12:27
  dialed and she's just
• 12:28
  a super good competitor so i think that it's it's very likely
• 12:32
  that she could
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: I think she has the potential to win it,
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_01: and I think that she can be up there with the best of them.
• 12:38
  But it's always tough to know what kind of mentality somebody's
• 12:41
  going to have
• 12:42
  coming into a 100-miler and their first 100-miler on one of the
• 12:45
  most competitive
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: fields.
• 12:46
  I imagine a lot of people will kind of give themselves some
• 12:47
  slack and don't have a
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: ton of weight of expectation of winning it on the first try.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but I think Caitlin is that talented and could win it.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um, she's done really good in her, her upgrade to longer races so far.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um, she had raced a CCC in 2022, which took her 13 hours and 15 minutes.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_01: So that's less than Western's going to take.
• 13:06
  Um,
• 13:07
  but then recently,
• 13:08
  but then for a while,
• 13:08
  she was just doing golden trail and 50 K stuff.
• 13:10
  Now she's kind of stepped back up and she did Tom play last
• 13:13
  year where she wanted
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: under eight hours.
• 13:14
  And then she did tear wear a hundred K where she was second to
• 13:17
  only Ruth crossed,
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_01: in a very,
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_01: very fast time around eight and a half hours.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: yeah,
• 13:23
  I think she's used to racing super deep and super competitive
• 13:26
  fields at Golden
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_01: Trail Series.
• 13:27
  I don't think any part of racing Western States is going to
• 13:30
  intimidate her.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: And then she's also had multiple top fives at OCC,
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: the world's most competitive 50K mountain race.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm really excited to see Caitlin race.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_01: I think she'll do really well.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_01: And I am cheering for her.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: Next on the list is going to be, I think, a favorite.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: Corinne Malkin has given this person a lot of hype.
• 13:49
  A lot of people are giving this person a lot of hype,
• 13:50
  and I think it's a well-deserved hype.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_01: That's going to be Lin Chin, the Adidas Terrix athlete from China.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_01: She raced last year, I'm pretty sure, in the top three all day.
• 13:58
  I think she was up there at Fujiao until the river,
• 14:01
  and then her feet got wrecked.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_01: She raced back into a golden ticket at Black Canyon 100K this year.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: I think she got fourth, if I'm not mistaken.
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_01: And then she decided to run most of...
• 14:13
  the course just for funsies at the canyons 100 miler and win
• 14:16
  that so um she has had
• 14:18
  a lot of races this year but these chinese athletes do race a
• 14:20
  lot and still seem to
• 14:21
  do pretty well um she's definitely a favorite for top five in
• 14:24
  my mind definitely
• 14:25
  will be up front with the lead pack and i see her pushing the
• 14:27
  race out front um
• 14:28
  like i mentioned earlier so i think she's somebody who's going
• 14:30
  to kind of dictate
• 14:31
  the pace and dictate being up front a lot of these chinese
• 14:34
  athletes and i know it's
• 14:35
  kind of a stereotype but in my experience in the western races
• 14:37
  like a lot of
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: chinese athletes do race pretty aggressively and kind of come out front
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: And it makes for an exciting race.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_01: And I also think it's an exciting variable,
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: but not a lot of athletes in Western,
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_01: like they're kind of unknown athletes.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_01: So they know how a lot of these people in the US race,
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: but they had no idea how other people race.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_01: And so it'll be kind of exciting to see.
• 14:55
  She seems like she,
• 14:57
  people also forget that she got fourth at UTMB last year,
• 14:59
  which is amazing.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: And that she's routinely races stuff way longer than Western States.
• 15:04
  If you look at her UTMB races,
• 15:06
  I mean,
• 15:06
  she has tons of races that are like,
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: I think she had one race that was 30 hours.
• 15:10
  So,
• 15:10
  you know,
• 15:10
  twice as long as Western States,
• 15:11
  but a lot of races in the 20 hour zone.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: her being on her feet for a long time at Western and in the heat,
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: especially when you're racing in,
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: in Asian humid heat,
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: it's not going to be an issue in my mind.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that she is really well suited.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: And like I said,
• 15:24
  she's already got a course preview with a hundred miles on the
• 15:27
  Canyon's course,
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: which is like a lot of the Western States course.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_01: So Lynch and definitely a favorite,
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: definitely going to be heavy hitting,
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: definitely going to be front running in my mind.
• 15:35
  And if she can get the foot care figured out,
• 15:36
  then I think she'll do great.
• 15:38
  um next one on the list we're still kind of rolling through
• 15:40
  those favorites tara
• 15:41
  dower is going to be um up there blew everyone's mind last year
• 15:45
  uh when she took
• 15:46
  that overall fkt uh on the at and she's just been rolling since
• 15:50
  then she got a
• 15:51
  second and well under the course record at um black canyon 100k
• 15:56
  and then that's
• 15:56
  where she got her golden ticket and then she won lake sonoma 50
• 15:59
  miler pretty easily
• 16:01
  And both of those seem like great classic tune-ups for coming
• 16:03
  into a fast Western States.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm surprised, honestly, with her Black Canyon.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_01: I figured she could go top five, but I didn't see her being as dominant.
• 16:12
  I mean,
• 16:12
  she was still 10 or 15 minutes,
• 16:14
  I want to say,
• 16:15
  off of Riley Brady.
• 16:17
  But she was kind of in no one's land and just pushed the pace
• 16:19
  the whole time and
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: kind of just raged and raced really well.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_01: So both her races seem super smart coming in.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: The only thing I question about Tara Dower,
• 16:28
  and this could just be my naivete and I don't follow her as
• 16:30
  closely as other
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: people,
• 16:32
  I question how much she's been doing heat training because
• 16:34
  she's insanely talented.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: And I think she's going to push the pace up front.
• 16:38
  But I wonder if or how much heat training she's been doing in
• 16:42
  preparation.
• 16:43
  I know everyone does,
• 16:43
  but I feel like that's probably the most tedious part of this
• 16:45
  preparation.
• 16:46
  and i think everyone feels obligated to and is doing it but i
• 16:49
  just think it's not
• 16:50
  fun i mean i know it's not really fun i'm running in like 100
• 16:53
  degrees in the lunch
• 16:55
  uh on a couple days a week out here and it just sucks and it's
• 16:58
  not fun but i'm sure
• 16:59
  she is doing some kind of heat training but that's the only
• 17:01
  thing i question is
• 17:01
  like uh does she push too hard and then has she been doing good
• 17:05
  heat training which
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: i'm sure she probably has
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_01: Next one on the list,
• 17:08
  and this is going to be another favorite and somebody who we
• 17:11
  have yet to see win a
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: big one.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: she just did win a big one,
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_01: but this is the first time,
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_01: so it was a big step up and hopefully a big boost in confidence.
• 17:19
  It's going to be the perennial top tenner for Western States,
• 17:22
  Emily Hallgood.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: So she's going for her fifth top 10 in a row on the female side.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_01: So Emily Hallgood, Zimbabwean legend, living in Idaho.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_01: I think she ran at Idaho State.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_01: And then she's kind of bounced between Idaho and California,
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: living close to the Western States course as well.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_01: She's always in the mix.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_01: And she's looking to,
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_01: like I said,
• 17:43
  just take that momentum and kind of that change in mentality
• 17:46
  from being up there to
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: being a winner with her winning in Canyons,
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_01: 100K,
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: over Mary Hogan in a very good battle.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: So looking at her Western has been like, it's really impressive.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I was looking at her times and her places.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_01: So her initial one was a seventh place.
• 18:03
  Uh,
• 18:03
  then she got two fifth places in a row and then last year in a
• 18:05
  fourth place.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_01: But if we look at her times every year, she's done this race.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: She's come from 1913 to 1816 to 1726 to 1648.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_01: So she shaved two hours and 30 minutes off her race time, more or less.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: Uh,
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: talk about consistency,
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: talk about progression and just talk about,
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_01: really being up there and doing a great job.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: So Emily Hall gets somebody home really excited to see.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: I think this could be a really huge year for her.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: And I think she's a super strong loss for your top five.
• 18:35
  Going back to her opponent at Canyon's 100K up front battling
• 18:39
  and somebody who is
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_01: also just a really big gamer,
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: a really competitive racer,
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_01: that's going to be Marion Hogan,
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: the Canadian crusher who runs for Solomon,
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_01: has a very squeaky voice,
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: one of the squeakiest voices I've ever heard,
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_01: but is literally like one of the fiercest trail racers out there.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: She raced to second place at Canyon's 100K in a battle with Emily Hogg,
• 18:58
  despite maybe coming off not the best spring training block
• 19:00
  with a little bit of
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_01: injuries.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: She puts up huge volume between biking and running.
• 19:05
  She finished third in 2022 at Western behind Ruth Croft and
• 19:10
  then won and doubled
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_01: back for a second place at UTMB in that same year.
• 19:14
  She was third at UTMB last year despite being in second all day
• 19:18
  and then getting
• 19:18
  passed by Ruth at the end and then also breaking her finger in
• 19:21
  the back half of the
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_01: race.
• 19:22
  um she's definitely one to watch i don't think she's as fast as
• 19:25
  a lot of these
• 19:25
  other ladies but i think she's just like a grinder and a gamer
• 19:28
  and somebody who's
• 19:28
  going to compete big time so um yeah i definitely think
• 19:32
  marianne will be running
• 19:34
  and as long as she gets the start line healthy and hasn't had
• 19:36
  any niggles pop up i
• 19:37
  haven't looked at her training on trauma but as long as she has
• 19:40
  a good training
• 19:40
  block coming in and hasn't had any injuries um she's you know a
• 19:44
  lock for for being
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: competing and being up there
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh,
• 19:48
  next name on the list is somebody who I think could surprise a
• 19:50
  lot of people and
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_01: already probably did surprise a lot of people earlier this year.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_01: And that is,
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_01: and to be quite frank,
• 19:55
  I'm biased because she is a friend of mine and a neighbor of
• 19:58
  mine in Colorado
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_01: Springs with her dog Gunnar and her husband Gil.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_01: And that's going to be Hannah Allgood,
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: free trail coach,
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: Adidas Tarek's athlete and recently hyper light athlete as well.
• 20:10
  I think she's going to turn some heads and I think,
• 20:12
  I think she'll go top five at Western,
• 20:14
  um,
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_01: She has done all the little things so good at just being consistent.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_01: And then she's been doing all the little things for the past six months.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_01: And I think for a lot of people,
• 20:24
  it probably surprised them a little bit when she won the 50K
• 20:27
  and beat people who
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: are kind of considered to be faster than her in some ways,
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: like Heather Jackson and Tabor Hemming.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm not surprised at all.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_01: Hannah's really fast.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_01: She got second at Abilene last year.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_01: That's how she got her golden ticket.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_01: And she just has done every little tiny thing right in her build.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: So biggest variable is going to be,
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_01: like I said,
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_01: it's her first time racing Western,
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: but she has,
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_01: she crewed it last year.
• 20:50
  And then,
• 20:50
  I mean,
• 20:51
  she'll have the Didis Terks team and her husband out there.
• 20:53
  And yeah,
• 20:55
  I think,
• 20:56
  I think Hannah's poised for a really big day and I'm really
• 20:58
  excited for her.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: I'll be rooting for her.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_01: She's one of my favorite people.
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_01: Next one on the list is going to be Hao Ha Thi,
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: and I'm sure I'm saying that name wrong,
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_01: but the Vietnamese runner from Vietnam,
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_01: obviously,
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: who has,
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_01: she's tiny but mighty and she's trail running sensation from Vietnam.
• 21:17
  And she's really been really impressive these past couple of
• 21:19
  years of trail racing.
• 21:20
  And she's someone who I also really think can turn heads and
• 21:22
  surprise a lot of people.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: She runs for the Chinese company Calus.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_01: And then her bio on UTMB reads like this.
• 21:30
  She's a world-class runner born in Van Bon,
• 21:32
  based in Sapa,
• 21:34
  Vietnam,
• 21:34
  with an incredible story.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: She was born in the mountainous Van Son village in northern Vietnam.
• 21:38
  She began running when she was in high school,
• 21:39
  even though she was an excellent athlete.
• 21:41
  She was refused entrance into a university to study to become a
• 21:44
  PE teacher.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_01: This was not because of her grades or ability,
• 21:46
  but strictly due to the fact that she didn't meet a height
• 21:49
  requirement of 155
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: centimeters.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: She's only 153.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_01: After this, she moved to Sapa, Vietnam, and began to work
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: She began her work career.
• 21:57
  Ten years later,
• 21:57
  she found herself divorced,
• 21:58
  out of shape,
• 21:59
  overweight,
• 21:59
  and with a child.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: This was all that she needed to begin running again.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: After two months of training,
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_01: she entered her first trail running race,
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_01: the 21K Vietnam Mountain Marathon in Sapa.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_01: That first overall win was the gun start of a successful running career,
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_01: the limits of which still need to be discovered.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_01: So she's coming off a fourth at Hong Kong 100K this year.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_01: She won the Chiang Mai UTMB 50K last year.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: She was fourth at CCC in back-to-back years.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_01: And then she does really get a hot in human races in Asia.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: So seems like she's really well set up for this.
• 22:30
  I think she's friends with Fu Zhao Zhang and has been teaming
• 22:33
  up and running a lot
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_01: of the course.
• 22:36
  And so hopefully getting some really good insider tips from
• 22:38
  Fuzhou's rockstar race last year.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_01: So definitely somebody to watch.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_01: Definitely a big question mark.
• 22:43
  Definitely one of those international athletes that I think
• 22:45
  could go top 10th.
• 22:48
  Next on the list is the recent Nike trail signee and member of
• 22:52
  the trail team after
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_01: winning their U.S.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_01: qualifying race at Gorge Waterfalls 100K.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: And that is going to be Shea Aquilano.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_01: And she is looking super good this year.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: She actually did not have to win a golden ticket.
• 23:08
  She's known she's going to race because she got picked in off a
• 23:10
  lottery whenever
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_01: that was,
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_01: maybe December or January of last year.
• 23:13
  So that's really freed up a lot of mentality and kind of opened
• 23:15
  up her race
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_01: schedule,
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_01: which is nice because it led her with a U.S.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_01: long trail team,
• 23:20
  but then also know that she can still train for Western and
• 23:22
  that Gorge Waterfalls
• 23:24
  would be a good stimulus for Western without having to race
• 23:27
  100K to get a golden
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_01: ticket.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_01: So it'll be her first Western States.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_01: I'm really curious to see how she pulls it off.
• 23:34
  I could see her maybe as high as fifth,
• 23:35
  but I feel like higher than that would be a stretch.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_01: I do think she's a gamer and I do think she's a really good racer,
• 23:40
  but I just think that there's a lot of really good people
• 23:43
  who've run this race and
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_01: have run really good times at this race.
• 23:45
  So I can see her kind of mixing it up kind of like last year
• 23:48
  when there was a bunch
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: between like the three to seven place.
• 23:51
  But I don't know if I see her higher than like fifth or sixth
• 23:54
  in this race.
• 23:55
  Next name on the list is going to be Erin Clark,
• 23:57
  runner for Missoula,
• 23:58
  Montana.
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_01: She's a Nike trail runner,
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_01: Adam P.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_01: Newman's partner,
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: ran in college at CU Boulder,
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_01: and has had some good results in the past.
• 24:06
  She got her golden ticket at Canes 100K and has been golden
• 24:10
  ticket hunting for quite some time.
• 24:11
  And she's looking to come back for her first time racing at
• 24:14
  Western since DNF in 2021.
• 24:17
  So definitely looking for some redemption and probably has been
• 24:20
  envisioning this
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_01: for four years now.
• 24:23
  Next on the list is going to be veteran of the sport and just
• 24:27
  somebody who always
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_01: knows how to run hard,
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_01: and that's Keely Henninger.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_01: She's been around the block.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think she's working on her MD or PhD or MD-PhD.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_01: She's doing lots of schooling.
• 24:38
  And so she's kind of taking a step back from running,
• 24:40
  which limits her volume.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: But honestly, it might not be a bad take.
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_01: She might be coming into this race really fresh.
• 24:45
  She got her golden ticket with a very smart and impressive
• 24:49
  performance at Cannes
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_01: for third place overall.
• 24:51
  or third place in the women's field and then um yeah she's
• 24:54
  limited but like i said
• 24:55
  i mean i think with how many people are dropping like flies
• 24:58
  because they're getting
• 24:59
  niggles in their lead-ups and over training i think that she
• 25:02
  might be in the
• 25:02
  perfect place to come into this race a little bit undercooked
• 25:04
  and be able to race
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_01: hard at the end all right we got still got a couple more names um
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_01: on the list.
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_01: We've also got Priscilla Forgy.
• 25:14
  She's Canadian runner for Soar,
• 25:17
  I think,
• 25:18
  and maybe possibly for Norda in the past.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_01: She's got back-to-back dock pens.
• 25:24
  I haven't seen any results for her since a Kodiak 100K second
• 25:28
  place last year.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_01: And I wonder if she'll race CCC this year.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_01: Juz is a little bit of a wild card.
• 25:34
  Doesn't race a ton coming into Western,
• 25:35
  but two top 10 finishes in two very fast years.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_01: So always somebody to look out for in the back half of the top 10.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_01: Next name is somebody that most people probably aren't too familiar with.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_01: Martina Milernicic, the Polish runner for HOKA.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_01: Her breakout last year was at CCC,
• 25:54
  where she got second place behind Tony McCann and really
• 25:56
  surprised a lot of people.
• 25:58
  And I'm pretty sure that's where she got her golden ticket,
• 26:00
  from what I can tell.
• 26:01
  Before that,
• 26:01
  she mostly just did pill-less races,
• 26:03
  so definitely was a wild card.
• 26:05
  CCC was probably the least competitive out of the three UTMB
• 26:08
  races last year,
• 26:08
  but that doesn't really take away from the fact that she beat
• 26:10
  people like Heather
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: Jackson,
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_01: who's going to be in this race,
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_01: Rosanna Buchauer,
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_01: and the Vietnamese athlete as well.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_01: And so she also got second at UTMB 50K last year behind Hawke.
• 26:22
  the vietnamese runner and in front of sunmaya buddha and takako
• 26:26
  takamura so i think
• 26:28
  she's a real wild card and i'm hesitant to pick her on the
• 26:30
  first try but i i still
• 26:32
  think she could go top 10 um and it seems like she does well in
• 26:36
  hot races based off
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: those those asia races so
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_01: Some more names.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_01: Tara Fraga, North Face Athlete from Pacific Northwest.
• 26:44
  I'm thinking she must have got in off the lottery unless
• 26:46
  there's a referral from
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_01: somewhere I'm missing.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_01: She's raced a couple of regional 50Ks this year and won them.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yakima Skyline and Tillamook Burn.
• 26:53
  And then she got a second at Gorge 50K last year and ninth at
• 26:56
  CCCA in 2023.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_01: I don't have much other insight other than that.
• 27:00
  Next one is going to be somebody who has the blood of a Western
• 27:03
  States champion
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_01: inside their veins.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_01: And it's not because they've won.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: It's because their sister has won.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_01: And that's going to be Fiona Pascal.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_01: Her sister Beth won in 2021.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_01: She got her golden ticket at Chianti with a win.
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_01: And then she's been kind of getting better every year and chipping away.
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_01: She had a win at Wildstruble 110 kilometer race and Mozart 100 last year.
• 27:23
  I thought she was passing on Western to focus on UTMB per
• 27:28
  Instagram post she made,
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_01: but it seems like she changed her mind on that.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_01: All right, we've got a couple more females left, not too many.
• 27:36
  So next one's going to be kind of the female poster child for
• 27:40
  Dean of Fit,
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_01: and that's going to be the German athlete,
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_01: Rosanna Buchauer.
• 27:44
  She's somebody who's known to come out really slow and then
• 27:47
  just kind of work her way up.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_01: I think at the first climb at CCC,
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_01: she was like 30th female or something last year,
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_01: and she worked her way all the way up to third place.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_01: So I think she's going to kind of come out slow.
• 27:57
  I wouldn't expect to see her in the top 10 early in the race
• 27:59
  and just kind of try
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_01: to race from the back,
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_01: kind of like Leah Yingling style.
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: But maybe she'll take a different approach.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_01: Let's see.
• 28:07
  She got second at Keonti 73k this year,
• 28:09
  won Labarado 120k last year in Grossglocker 50.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: She got fifth at Worlds Long Trail in 2023 and 2021.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_01: One second.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_01: There's some jets taking off.
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, and I'm back.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_01: I always forget to caveat at the beginning,
• 28:52
  but I feel like most of the people that listen to this podcast
• 28:54
  by now know that I'm
• 28:56
  abroad doing military service and that I'm kind of on active
• 28:58
  base and the best
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_01: place to record is outside.
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_01: So every now and then,
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_01: There's some jets taking off and I just have to stop talking.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_01: So you can just skip ahead 30 seconds and I'll be right back.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_01: So once again, that's Rosanna Buchauer.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 29:09
  I expect to see her kind of race conservatively and smart and
• 29:12
  kind of try to pick
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: off people all day.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: I think we've been seeing that strategy work less and less in Western.
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe she switches it up and does something differently.
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't expect to see her coming out hard.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_01: I think she'll come out pretty conservatively.
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see if that pays off.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_01: Somebody who does tend to come out hard,
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_01: but maybe not so much at Western,
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_01: is going to be Heather Jackson,
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_01: who's next on our list.
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_01: So she's hookah athlete,
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_01: ex-super-duper good Ironman contestant with multiple top world finishes.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_01: And now she's a really good gravel bike racer.
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_01: She just won the Unbound...
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_01: which is like a 360-mile race, I want to say.
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_01: Superlong gravel race in Kansas not too long ago.
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_01: And last year, she raced the 200, and she got top five.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_01: That's the more competitive one.
• 29:53
  So she raced her way into a top 10 last year after DNF in her
• 29:55
  first attempt with
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: the snowy escarpment year.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_01: She kind of didn't handle the snow well.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_01: She doesn't have a ton of rental volume coming into this,
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_01: much more biking volume,
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_01: and she's just kind of switched to running since her win at Unbound.
• 30:07
  But it worked for her last year,
• 30:08
  and so we'll see if it works again this year.
• 30:10
  She got fourth at Canaan's 50K behind Hannah Allgood,
• 30:13
  Tabor Hemming,
• 30:14
  and Kimmy Schreiber.
• 30:15
  I'm hesitant to think she'll be as sharp in the race this year,
• 30:18
  but I could be totally wrong.
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_01: And she's also competing for that Masters course record.
• 30:23
  SPEAKER_01: Eden Nielsen has it right now.
• 30:24
  with a 16.56 in the race last year,
• 30:28
  but Heather was like below 17 hour range.
• 30:31
  And then also,
• 30:32
  like I mentioned earlier,
• 30:33
  Esther Chilag is now in that master's category.
• 30:35
  So they'll all be kind of gunning for the master's course
• 30:37
  record inside that as
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 30:39
  SPEAKER_01: along with the win.
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_01: And that kind of rolls perfectly into the next runner,
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_01: masters athlete,
• 30:45
  SPEAKER_01: Eden Nielsen,
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_01: craft athlete,
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_01: Swedish athletes,
• 30:49
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_01: ran steeplechase.
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_01: And I think she was national champion at Northern Arizona university.
• 30:54
  SPEAKER_01: She's been in the trail scene for a long time.
• 30:56
  Always does get at these type of races and has already done
• 30:59
  good at Western two years in a row.
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, she got, yeah, 1648 in a six place last year.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_01: Um, um,
• 31:07
  Sixth place,
• 31:08
  only eight minutes off of,
• 31:10
  and she was only eight minutes off of fourth place.
• 31:12
  And then she also ran Western in 2023 and got seventh and
• 31:15
  lowered her time by
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_01: almost an hour year to year.
• 31:18
  SPEAKER_01: This year so far, she's raised a 60K in Sweden that she won.
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_01: And then she ran the Trans-Grand Canaria 82K advanced to a win.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_01: But that's a little bit less competitive than the classic distance.
• 31:27
  um so it is always a strong pick um she's gonna race really
• 31:30
  hard she's known to be
• 31:31
  a competitor and i think she's looking in good shape coming
• 31:34
  into this one um she
• 31:36
  just doesn't really need to race that much i mean she's racing
• 31:37
  time in her career
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_01: um and i mean her racing does look good coming into this quite frankly so
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_01: Some other names, last three to round out the list.
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_01: Abby Hall is going to be the first one.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_01: She is Adidas Terex athlete.
• 31:49
  She got in after MK Sullivan deferred her ticket from Black
• 31:52
  Canyon because of a
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_01: pregnancy announcement.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_01: So congrats to MK.
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_01: And Abby was next on the Black Canyon list to drop down.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_01: So she's longtime Crusher Vultures,
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: coached by Jason Koop,
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_01: multiple top threes at CCC,
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_01: I believe.
• 32:06
  SPEAKER_01: And then she's coming back from breaking her leg the past two years.
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_01: So this year she got set at Black Canyon and fourth at Chianti,
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_01: just missing a golden ticket by one spot in each one.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_01: She's going to be very hungry to race Western.
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_01: She's going to have that Adidas Terex crew.
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_01: She's got tons of Western knowledge and has crewed her husband crew Jim,
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_01: I'm pretty sure,
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_01: the past couple of years as well.
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_01: So definitely somebody to look out for.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: Definitely a little bit of a wild card,
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_01: too,
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_01: without having raced as much and kind of getting back into it.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_01: But that leads to a lot of excitement.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, she's been wanting to get back racing for a while.
• 32:37
  Last two names on the list are going to be Johanna Antila,
• 32:40
  own ticket winner from Chianti.
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_01: She's Finnish, along with Fiona Pascal.
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_01: She got her ticket at Chianti.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_01: And so she mostly races longer, more mountainous and tougher stuff.
• 32:49
  I have my doubts that she'll be speedy enough to be up in the
• 32:53
  top 10,
• 32:54
  but we'll see about that.
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_01: And then last one is Nancy Jiang,
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_01: Kiwi runner for La Sportiva,
• 32:58
  and she was one of the few people who actually did show up in a
• 33:00
  race at Twisted
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_01: Fork last week and won.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_01: She got in with her race at Terrawera,
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_01: where she got fifth place,
• 33:05
  SPEAKER_01: and the ticket rolled down to her,
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_01: thanks to denials from Helen Mino Faulkner,
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_01: Ruth,
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_01: and then ineligibility from Beth.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_01: She raced Western in 2023 and finished just under 24 hours.
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_01: So I imagine she'll be looking for redemption.
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_01: And I think she could go a lot faster.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_01: She seems to be a very talented mountain athlete.
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 33:23
  SPEAKER_01: That's 23 freaking names, which is crazy for 10 spots.
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_01: So obviously that's not going to work out.
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_01: I will give a top 10 list as I have it right now,
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_01: five days and 10 hours out per free trails clock.
• 33:37
  But with the huge caveat that I'm going to change this like a
• 33:40
  bajillion times in
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_01: the next couple of days,
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_01: just like I always do.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_01: And just like whenever I give this, I'm always going to change it a ton.
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_01: But as of right now, I'll go 10 through one.
• 33:50
  without any explanation other than all the 30 minutes of
• 33:53
  talking I just did before this.
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_01: So 10 through one, I've got 10th place, Marion Hogan.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_01: 9th, Kaitlin Fielder.
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_01: 8th, Esther Chilog.
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_01: 7th, Hauhati.
• 34:06
  SPEAKER_01: 6th, Lin Shin.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_01: 5th, Hannah Allgood.
• 34:08
  SPEAKER_01: 4th, Himley.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_01: Hannah Allgood,
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_01: fourth Emily Hallgood,
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_01: third Tara Dower,
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_01: second Fu Zhao Zhang,
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_01: and first Riley Brady.
• 34:17
  And I'm very likely to change that list like a bajillion times
• 34:20
  for all the reasons
• 34:21
  I already mentioned and for all the people that I could also
• 34:24
  see in the top 10 that
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_01: I mentioned and for the reasons I mentioned.
• 34:26
  SPEAKER_01: So that list is probably going to change a ton.
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_01: I'll probably listen to some of these interviews that are going to drop.
• 34:31
  SPEAKER_01: There's going to be so much Western States content.
• 34:33
  Hopefully this is one more thing you can listen to on top of
• 34:35
  the 40 other podcast.
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_01: So this is my female preview with regards to Western this year.
• 34:46
  SPEAKER_01: That was a lot of talking, so just give me one second.
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_01: All right,
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_01: so on the men's side,
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_01: the men's actually counted,
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_01: in my opinion,
• 34:52
  SPEAKER_01: I only had 18 that I thought were strong picks for the top 10 plus,
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_01: and that doesn't include Harry Subartas and Jeff Browning,
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_01: which would make it 20%.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 35:02
  but I would say 18 guys we're going to talk about today who I
• 35:04
  think have the chance
• 35:05
  SPEAKER_01: to make top 10 and a likelihood of making the top 10.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_01: So a little bit less than our female side.
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_01: And then I'd also say in my mind,
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_01: there are some clear favorites,
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_01: in my opinion,
• 35:16
  SPEAKER_01: more so than on the females race.
• 35:19
  SPEAKER_01: So, uh,
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_01: once again,
• 35:22
  SPEAKER_01: when I talk about these males,
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not going to go in order of,
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_01: I think like most likely to be in the top 10.
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_01: And so kind of the favorites are more towards the top of this list.
• 35:28
  And then the ones who I am less confident on are going to be
• 35:32
  more towards the bottom.
• 35:33
  But in my mind,
• 35:33
  I think there's kind of three,
• 35:35
  three favorites in my mind.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_01: That's,
• 35:38
  in this race and i think two of them have won this race and
• 35:41
  then there's only one
• 35:41
  in my mind that has not won this race although you feel free to
• 35:45
  disagree with me i
• 35:45
  think i'm gonna mention some other people that i think could
• 35:47
  easily be people's
• 35:48
  favorites um that aren't in my list but i'm curious what you
• 35:51
  think if if you agree
• 35:52
  with me or disagree so my three favorites two former winners
• 35:55
  killian journey adam
• 35:57
  peterman in my mind and then the only non-winder who's a
• 35:59
  favorite in my mind
• 36:01
  SPEAKER_01: is Dan Jones.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_01: But I guess with that logic,
• 36:03
  SPEAKER_01: I should probably have Rod Farvard up there too,
• 36:05
  SPEAKER_01: but we'll talk about it more in a little bit,
• 36:07
  SPEAKER_01: get into distinctions.
• 36:08
  SPEAKER_01: But in my mind, KJ, Dan Jones, and Adam Peterman are the three favorites.
• 36:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so we'll kind of go into that.
• 36:14
  SPEAKER_01: And then, yeah, uh,
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_01: Themes for the men's side, big dogs dropping like flies.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_01: And then I said, is Killian still the clear favorite?
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_01: Slash, do we have reservations based off his Broken Arrow performance?
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_01: Can Killian eat American toxic food and still perform well?
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_01: That's a big question mark.
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: And then,
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_01: yeah,
• 36:32
  and then we got two athletes doubling back from Cocodona 250 to
• 36:36
  do the Coco Western
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_01: Slam,
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_01: I guess,
• 36:39
  SPEAKER_01: which would be Dan Green and Harry Subertas.
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_01: So first and foremost, the GOAT, the favorite of all favorites.
• 36:47
  My favorite,
• 36:48
  I don't know,
• 36:48
  an inspiration to so many people who get into trail running.
• 36:50
  If you've ever watched any of his videos or followed him on
• 36:52
  Instagram,
• 36:53
  he's just
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_01: We're obviously talking about Killian Jornet.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_01: I think some people are surprised by his VK race,
• 36:58
  but I also think it's damn near impossible to bet against him
• 37:01
  in any race he does.
• 37:02
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not too concerned about it, and I don't think you should be either.
• 37:05
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's the favorite regardless of what anyone says.
• 37:08
  Even if somebody like Roach or Rod Farvard or David Roach is
• 37:12
  able to hang with him
• 37:13
  SPEAKER_01: for a long time,
• 37:14
  SPEAKER_01: I still think he has oodles and oodles and oodles of racing experience.
• 37:19
  And I think it favors him for making a move late in the race
• 37:23
  and just dropping the
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_01: hammer at the perfect time.
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't see Rod or...
• 37:29
  or david no matter how fit they are kind of covering that move
• 37:32
  or just there's just
• 37:33
  something you can't there's like a race iq right and and
• 37:36
  killing his race so many
• 37:38
  hundreds if not thousands of times that if he's in the right
• 37:41
  place at the right
• 37:41
  time he's already run this course he's won this course he's
• 37:44
  also lost this course
• 37:45
  he knows kind of when to make a move um and i don't think
• 37:48
  there's any level of like
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_01: training that can overcome that race iq um
• 37:53
  SPEAKER_01: yeah, it's basically, I put, it's a God tier race IQ.
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_01: Like it's,
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_01: it's pretty unmatchable and it only comes from,
• 37:59
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 38:00
  SPEAKER_01: decades of competing at the highest level.
• 38:02
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah.
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_01: And then same thing with Rod.
• 38:05
  I said,
• 38:06
  no matter how fit he is,
• 38:07
  you know,
• 38:07
  he kind of missed Jim's move last year.
• 38:10
  SPEAKER_01: He was up there with him and he had the chance.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_01: And when Jim kind of made the move,
• 38:13
  SPEAKER_01: he either didn't recognize it or didn't have the guts to go with it.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_01: He has mentioned that.
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_01: I think he mentioned that on an interview with Francesco Pupi.
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_01: So the question is, you know, has he learned from that,
• 38:23
  SPEAKER_01: from that lesson,
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_01: and will he recognize the move this year,
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_01: if and when it's being made by David or Killian or whoever.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, we'll see if it's enough to pay off.
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_01: And so, yeah, I think Killian Jernay is still hands down the favorite.
• 38:37
  SPEAKER_01: He's wrecking the course right now and getting some runs on the course.
• 38:40
  SPEAKER_01: He's been doing his...
• 38:42
  insane three-hour Viking heat training and then if you just go
• 38:45
  look at his Strava
• 38:46
  graph it's beautiful and if you look at all of his weeks
• 38:48
  they're basically exactly
• 38:50
  Western States distance and bird if not a little bit more
• 38:52
  distance than bird and
• 38:53
  then they're all like 14 hours or under which indicates to me I
• 38:56
  mean that's like
• 38:57
  Western States in a week but in a lesser time obviously this
• 39:00
  isn't a perfect proxy
• 39:00
  but he's been doing lots of flat for him and fast running at
• 39:04
  like six minute gap
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_01: along with his bike heat training and all this other stuff.
• 39:09
  SPEAKER_01: So he looks primed.
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: next favorite on my list of three favorites is Adam Peterman,
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_01: AKA Adam Peter God,
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_01: runner for Hoka,
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_01: blue everyone's,
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe not blew everyone's mind,
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_01: but just had a stellar banner,
• 39:23
  SPEAKER_01: banger of a year,
• 39:24
  SPEAKER_01: trail runner of the year,
• 39:25
  SPEAKER_01: ultra runner of the year,
• 39:25
  SPEAKER_01: whatever.
• 39:26
  SPEAKER_01: 2022,
• 39:26
  SPEAKER_01: when he won Canyons,
• 39:29
  SPEAKER_01: first ever 100K,
• 39:30
  SPEAKER_01: and then doubled back eight weeks later for Western,
• 39:32
  SPEAKER_01: won Western,
• 39:33
  SPEAKER_01: his first ever 100 miler.
• 39:35
  SPEAKER_01: And just kind of he...
• 39:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 39:39
  SPEAKER_01: he's a next level trail talent,
• 39:40
  former runner at Colorado Boulder where he got injured a lot
• 39:43
  and just kind of
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_01: wasn't having fun under Wetmore.
• 39:45
  SPEAKER_01: And then he's all around certified, qualified, super nice guy.
• 39:49
  SPEAKER_01: He's just like one of the humblest, quietest, soft-spoken guys ever.
• 39:52
  He had an injury in 2023 and then last year was kind of his
• 39:55
  bounce back year.
• 39:56
  And through the lens of Adam Peter God,
• 39:59
  it didn't look like an amazing year.
• 40:01
  SPEAKER_01: But through the lens of anyone else, this would be an amazing year.
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_01: He had third at Broken Arrow, sixth at Spigo, third at CCC.
• 40:07
  And then this year,
• 40:08
  he's already got a win at Gorge 100K for the US long trail
• 40:10
  spot.
• 40:11
  SPEAKER_01: He ran super smart, super decisively.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking about race IQ with regards to Killian.
• 40:17
  SPEAKER_01: In my mind,
• 40:17
  SPEAKER_01: Adam Peterman is right up there with Killian when it comes to strategy,
• 40:21
  SPEAKER_01: when it comes to racing smart,
• 40:23
  SPEAKER_01: when it comes to not taking it out too hot.
• 40:25
  And when it comes to knowing when and exactly where moves are
• 40:28
  being made and
• 40:28
  SPEAKER_01: whether or not to go with them,
• 40:30
  SPEAKER_01: we've seen him be patient and win like time and time again.
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_01: That's basically what he did at Western.
• 40:34
  SPEAKER_01: I think he ran a lot of it with Hayden,
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_01: if I remember correctly,
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_01: and then just kind of made the move when he needed to.
• 40:38
  That's kind of what he did at Gorge and just kind of made the
• 40:41
  separation when he needed to.
• 40:43
  He's not,
• 40:44
  even though his time in winning Western isn't nearly as fast as
• 40:47
  people are going now.
• 40:48
  SPEAKER_01: he knows exactly how much he needs to do.
• 40:50
  SPEAKER_01: And he wasn't going to come out and just like go gym balls to the wall,
• 40:53
  go for the course record front run the whole time because it
• 40:56
  was his first hundred
• 40:56
  SPEAKER_01: miler.
• 40:57
  SPEAKER_01: And you only need to do what you need to do to win, right?
• 40:59
  SPEAKER_01: It's kind of like Killian when he got his golden ticket at Chianti,
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_01: he only needed a golden ticket.
• 41:02
  SPEAKER_01: He didn't need to win.
• 41:03
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that he has that race IQ that you can't really teach.
• 41:08
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that he's one of the smartest racers in the game.
• 41:10
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that when that move is being made,
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_01: he'll kind of know when to make,
• 41:14
  SPEAKER_01: when to bridge it and when to gap it and,
• 41:16
  SPEAKER_01: and when to go for it.
• 41:16
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah,
• 41:17
  i think peterman is a favorite i think um i don't think a lot
• 41:21
  of people are
• 41:21
  sleeping on but i think his name was kind of getting overlooked
• 41:23
  when hayden and jim
• 41:24
  were still in and now i think it's going to get given that
• 41:26
  appropriate um respect
• 41:28
  on his name um and that kind of brings us into our next person
• 41:31
  who i think a lot of
• 41:32
  people will say he is a favorite and he's also kind of slept on
• 41:35
  at the same time
• 41:36
  it's kind of weird how you can be both those that's going to be
• 41:38
  the kiwi sensation
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_01: dan jones runner for adidas terex um
• 41:43
  SPEAKER_01: he's the only one of these favorites in my mind of my three favorites,
• 41:46
  SPEAKER_01: who's not a previous winner,
• 41:47
  but he's been two for two in his Western States attempts coming
• 41:50
  into this year's
• 41:51
  race with a mean course record winning course record streak at
• 41:54
  Tara where a hundred
• 41:54
  SPEAKER_01: K and lakes and air Sonoma marathon.
• 41:57
  And then ultra trial Australia,
• 41:58
  which was the major for the oceanic division or whatever.
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_01: He won pretty decisively by like 10 minutes in a four hour race.
• 42:06
  And I don't know if that was a course record,
• 42:08
  but I assume it was cause he ran pretty damn fast.
• 42:11
  SPEAKER_01: So, um,
• 42:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he's on a heater.
• 42:13
  SPEAKER_01: He's on a tear.
• 42:14
  SPEAKER_01: He's really looked amazing.
• 42:16
  SPEAKER_01: He broke his own tear wear course record.
• 42:18
  So that makes me think that he's even fitter than he was in the
• 42:19
  past two years.
• 42:20
  SPEAKER_01: In his past two years, we saw awesome times.
• 42:23
  The only thing is,
• 42:24
  does the pressure get to him now that he's a little bit more of
• 42:25
  a favorite?
• 42:26
  Everyone's kind of thinking on him as being up there and one of
• 42:28
  the fastest guys,
• 42:29
  SPEAKER_01: one of the fastest returners,
• 42:31
  SPEAKER_01: the second most fast returner behind Rod.
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah,
• 42:36
  another thing is he's also got a Substack that's worth reading
• 42:39
  and has had some good
• 42:39
  SPEAKER_01: posts about Western and things like that.
• 42:42
  SPEAKER_01: Dan Jones, favorite in my mind.
• 42:43
  And then we kind of get into the next three names in my mind
• 42:47
  are kind of like,
• 42:48
  SPEAKER_01: for a lot of people,
• 42:48
  SPEAKER_01: they're favorites.
• 42:50
  SPEAKER_01: And then for me, they're kind of right on the edge.
• 42:51
  And I'll kind of talk about like the reason why they're not
• 42:55
  favorites in my mind
• 42:55
  are the biggest things that I'm concerned about with regards to
• 42:59
  them performing
• 43:00
  SPEAKER_01: well at Western States.
• 43:01
  SPEAKER_01: So the first one who comes to mind is going to be
• 43:03
  SPEAKER_01: Vincent Bouillard,
• 43:04
  SPEAKER_01: Vinny B,
• 43:06
  Hoka shoe designer turned Hoka athlete after shocking the world
• 43:09
  and winning UTMB
• 43:11
  SPEAKER_01: last year,
• 43:11
  SPEAKER_01: seemingly out of nowhere.
• 43:12
  SPEAKER_01: If you had seen his results,
• 43:14
  SPEAKER_01: you could see that he had good fitness and he was a good runner,
• 43:16
  SPEAKER_01: but he just hadn't run a race at UTMB's level yet.
• 43:19
  SPEAKER_01: So he backed it up last year,
• 43:21
  SPEAKER_01: or excuse me,
• 43:21
  SPEAKER_01: this year with a third at Golden Trail,
• 43:23
  SPEAKER_01: or excuse me,
• 43:24
  SPEAKER_01: a third and a golden ticket at Chianti this year,
• 43:26
  SPEAKER_01: just behind Killian and Jim.
• 43:28
  SPEAKER_01: It was only like 30 seconds off Killian,
• 43:30
  SPEAKER_01: and he was up there with Killian and Jim the whole race.
• 43:32
  SPEAKER_01: So he doesn't race a ton,
• 43:34
  SPEAKER_01: but he has raced a fast 100 miler at Kodiak on similar terrain,
• 43:37
  SPEAKER_01: but with more vert,
• 43:38
  SPEAKER_01: and he raced around 16 hours.
• 43:40
  SPEAKER_01: I think a lot of people might be viewing him as a favorite.
• 43:42
  But like I said,
• 43:43
  I'm not sure how I feel about him just because it's tough to
• 43:45
  gauge.
• 43:46
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 43:47
  SPEAKER_01: More knowledge isn't always better,
• 43:48
  SPEAKER_01: but it's tough to gauge,
• 43:49
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 43:50
  when he's kind of Strava dark and he's kind of also social
• 43:54
  media dark as well.
• 43:55
  SPEAKER_01: But I mean,
• 43:55
  his Chianti leads me to believe that he's in really good form
• 43:58
  and he'll be one of
• 43:58
  SPEAKER_01: the guys to keep an eye on.
• 44:00
  SPEAKER_01: And I imagine he's leaning heavily on advice and insight from Jim and
• 44:05
  by Jim this year uh which would be awesome I mean that's like
• 44:08
  you know having the
• 44:09
  master uh helping you out there so um I like I said I tend to
• 44:13
  favor experience over
• 44:14
  this race due to other uh compared to other factors but every
• 44:18
  year there's at least
• 44:19
  a few first-timers that crush it and here's that list I was
• 44:21
  talking about for the
• 44:22
  first uh last year first time western states runners who were
• 44:26
  top 10 last year we
• 44:27
  SPEAKER_01: had Caleb Olson John Alvin and Chris Myers um
• 44:30
  top 10 in their debut and then on the female side we had fujao
• 44:33
  ingville casperson
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_01: and rachel drake in the top 10.
• 44:36
  so that was less i was trying to think of earlier that i could
• 44:38
  not think of um
• 44:40
  vincent could very easily be one of those to be a first time
• 44:43
  top tenner um and i'm
• 44:45
  sure i'll oscillate kind of back and forth between having him
• 44:47
  in my top 10 and
• 44:47
  SPEAKER_01: moving him out but that's kind of like my main hesitation
• 44:51
  SPEAKER_01: Next two guys who I think are to be favorites on a lot of people's list,
• 44:53
  SPEAKER_01: and I'm going to talk about it more.
• 44:55
  SPEAKER_01: Next one's going to be David Roach,
• 44:57
  SPEAKER_01: founder of Swap Training,
• 44:59
  SPEAKER_01: along with his wife Megan,
• 45:00
  SPEAKER_01: Swap Podcast.
• 45:01
  SPEAKER_01: He's been doing tons of YouTube content.
• 45:04
  SPEAKER_01: He's been putting in some really amazing training,
• 45:05
  and it's cool how transparent he's been about all of his
• 45:08
  training and all the
• 45:08
  SPEAKER_01: things that he's doing going into this.
• 45:10
  SPEAKER_01: Some of them seem a little bit outlandish,
• 45:11
  SPEAKER_01: but I mean,
• 45:12
  if you want to be on the boundary of doing things that people
• 45:14
  have never done,
• 45:15
  SPEAKER_01: then you've got to be also pushing that boundary as well.
• 45:18
  so yeah he's been doing crazy heat training crazy workouts
• 45:21
  crazy this crazy that um
• 45:23
  he's probably one of the fastest guys to step on the line this
• 45:25
  year if not the
• 45:26
  fastest i think he's probably up there with dan jones and i
• 45:29
  think adam peterman is
• 45:30
  probably up there and pure speed wise um as well and um and his
• 45:35
  theory you know is
• 45:36
  that you got to be the fastest what miler 5k whatever he's
• 45:39
  saying in order to win
• 45:40
  it so we'll see i mean that's a theory it's just a hypothesis
• 45:43
  right now and we'll
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_01: see if that theory if it pays off and where it gets him um
• 45:47
  the biggest issue or the biggest like thing that I think going
• 45:50
  against David is
• 45:51
  SPEAKER_01: that the only is,
• 45:52
  is the pressure that he's putting himself or the other people
• 45:55
  are putting himself,
• 45:56
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 45:57
  for the race with regards to like his big YouTube buildup and
• 46:00
  all those things.
• 46:01
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I think he could very easily.
• 46:03
  SPEAKER_01: And then the other thing is the imposter syndrome too.
• 46:05
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 46:05
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 46:05
  he's talked multiple times about not feeling like he's one of
• 46:08
  the big dogs or
• 46:09
  SPEAKER_01: whatever,
• 46:09
  SPEAKER_01: and that,
• 46:10
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 46:10
  Jim and Eli and these other guys are kind of up there in a
• 46:12
  different level.
• 46:13
  And I definitely,
• 46:14
  I mean,
• 46:14
  dude,
• 46:14
  if I was in his situation,
• 46:15
  I'd totally feel the same way.
• 46:16
  SPEAKER_01: If you're racing against Killian Jornay,
• 46:17
  somebody who every trail and ultra runner has looked up to for
• 46:20
  the past 20 years,
• 46:21
  SPEAKER_01: like it's pretty scary when you're actually racing those people.
• 46:23
  So I think that if there's any issues,
• 46:25
  it's not going to be a fitness issue with David.
• 46:26
  SPEAKER_01: It's going to be some kind of mental hangup or mental issue.
• 46:29
  And we kind of saw that in Big Alta 50K when he kind of went
• 46:32
  with Eli's move,
• 46:33
  didn't cover it.
• 46:34
  SPEAKER_01: He also twisted the crap out of his ankle,
• 46:36
  but kind of folded when he realized that he wasn't quite Eli's
• 46:39
  level fitness.
• 46:39
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah.
• 46:42
  SPEAKER_01: I don't...
• 46:43
  SPEAKER_01: To be fair,
• 46:43
  SPEAKER_01: I don't see David winning it,
• 46:45
  SPEAKER_01: and I'm not hating or,
• 46:47
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 46:47
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 46:47
  SPEAKER_01: there's big David fans out there.
• 46:49
  SPEAKER_01: I like David.
• 46:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's really awesome what he does.
• 46:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's awesome how he gives you a sneak peek into it.
• 46:53
  SPEAKER_01: I don't see him winning it.
• 46:54
  I could see him in the top five,
• 46:55
  maybe even the top three,
• 46:56
  but I just don't think he's...
• 47:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think he's learned since his move at Big Alta.
• 47:05
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think he quite has that race IQ.
• 47:07
  SPEAKER_01: And I think we've kind of seen that.
• 47:08
  SPEAKER_01: He's done really good at races where he gets to front run and go out.
• 47:11
  SPEAKER_01: And I definitely think he'll front run and go out with the pack.
• 47:13
  SPEAKER_01: But I worry that when a big move gets made late in the race,
• 47:16
  he either won't make it because of the race IQ or he won't make
• 47:18
  it because of the
• 47:19
  SPEAKER_01: confidence.
• 47:20
  SPEAKER_01: So for what it's worth, that's kind of what I have, David.
• 47:22
  SPEAKER_01: And that's also why I don't have him in my top 10 as of right now.
• 47:26
  Cause I could just as easily see him going with a move and
• 47:27
  blowing up and then not
• 47:29
  SPEAKER_01: finishing the race as well.
• 47:30
  And so,
• 47:31
  and with fantasy for each other,
• 47:31
  you don't get any points if somebody doesn't finish.
• 47:33
  So you kind of want to hedge your bets if you think somebody
• 47:35
  might show up or blow
• 47:36
  SPEAKER_01: up type of deal.
• 47:37
  SPEAKER_01: So last one on this list of potential favorites,
• 47:40
  SPEAKER_01: but also with some question marks around them is going to be,
• 47:43
  SPEAKER_01: The one and only fan favorite and creator of the Boulder Boys,
• 47:48
  SPEAKER_01: North Face athlete Seth Ruling,
• 47:49
  SPEAKER_01: of course.
• 47:51
  SPEAKER_01: He's having a banner year for the Boulder Boys.
• 47:53
  In my mind,
• 47:53
  he's one of the biggest question marks and wild cards in this
• 47:55
  field,
• 47:55
  like I said.
• 47:56
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's talented enough to be up front with the big dogs.
• 48:00
  SPEAKER_01: But I have reservations about it being his debut 100 miler.
• 48:03
  and i don't quite put him up there with adam peterman in terms
• 48:06
  of being able to
• 48:06
  SPEAKER_01: race 100 milers so flawlessly on the first try i think even though it was
• 48:10
  surprising that it was adam's first 100 he he already kind of
• 48:13
  had that like race um
• 48:15
  maturity like adam just is a very mature racer and has always
• 48:18
  been a super mature
• 48:19
  racer in this trail game even though he was maybe 25 or 26 when
• 48:22
  he won western so
• 48:26
  SPEAKER_01: Seth is definitely,
• 48:27
  SPEAKER_01: no doubt in my mind,
• 48:28
  SPEAKER_01: talented enough to be up there up front with the big dogs.
• 48:30
  But I kind of question his mentality going into it based off
• 48:32
  his podcast and the Boulder Boys.
• 48:34
  I think it's good that he's not putting too much pressure on
• 48:36
  himself to go win it
• 48:38
  SPEAKER_01: first try and crush it on his first 100 miler.
• 48:40
  SPEAKER_01: But I also think if you say that enough to yourself,
• 48:42
  it can kind of give you some self-doubt when you're up there
• 48:44
  with some of the best
• 48:45
  SPEAKER_01: people in the world.
• 48:46
  at trail racing so I think it could be detrimental when the
• 48:49
  going gets tough to
• 48:50
  think that you don't belong up there with those guys I
• 48:54
  definitely want Seth to be
• 48:55
  up front and running to his potential and I think his potential
• 48:57
  is really really
• 48:58
  high for this race but I think there's a few things yeah just
• 49:02
  going against them
• 49:02
  make me a little hesitant in my mind Seth and David are kind of
• 49:05
  higher on the risk
• 49:06
  SPEAKER_01: and reward like if they finish they're going to finish top five
• 49:09
  um but if they don't finish there you're gonna dns or just kind
• 49:11
  of get blown out
• 49:12
  and kind of maybe have like a dakota jones type of day i could
• 49:14
  kind of put them out
• 49:15
  dakota jones category you know two years ago dakota jones went
• 49:18
  out with tom evans
• 49:18
  was with them first 100k and then blew up second half last year
• 49:21
  dakota was pretty
• 49:22
  high up there too in the top 10 and then blew up second half as
• 49:25
  well so um
• 49:27
  So yeah,
• 49:27
  my big question marks with David and Seth are,
• 49:29
  you know,
• 49:30
  will they finish?
• 49:30
  If they finish,
• 49:31
  I think for sure they'll be in the top 10,
• 49:32
  probably in the top five.
• 49:33
  SPEAKER_01: But the big question mark is, you know, will they finish?
• 49:36
  And that's important in fantasy free trail because you don't
• 49:38
  get points if they don't finish.
• 49:40
  SPEAKER_01: Next on the list is going to be the one and only,
• 49:42
  SPEAKER_01: the kid from Noonan,
• 49:44
  SPEAKER_01: Georgia,
• 49:45
  first on the scene last year with taking down a gym course
• 49:48
  record at Bandera,
• 49:49
  SPEAKER_01: what appeared to be a gym course record.
• 49:51
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's maybe a little bit different course.
• 49:53
  SPEAKER_01: We're, of course, talking about Hans Troyer, the ultra athlete.
• 49:55
  SPEAKER_01: I still need to watch his documentary.
• 49:57
  SPEAKER_01: I'm really excited about it, the kid that they put out.
• 50:00
  yeah and when he took down bandera the course record for jim i
• 50:03
  think he titled it
• 50:04
  like get wrecked jim or something like that which is funny um
• 50:07
  and then he bounced
• 50:08
  back like a couple weeks later and raced neck and neck with
• 50:10
  hayden hawks for the
• 50:11
  first 15 miles of black canyon before fading to 10th but then
• 50:15
  also getting rhabdo
• 50:16
  but bounced back from that as well um he ran a really smart
• 50:18
  race at canyons and
• 50:19
  SPEAKER_01: then despite people it kind of
• 50:22
  seemingly came out of nowhere because his tracker wasn't
• 50:24
  working just popped in and
• 50:25
  bam second place behind francesco poopy um to get that golden
• 50:29
  ticket and go go to
• 50:30
  western states so um he's coached by david roach that's gonna
• 50:33
  be interesting
• 50:33
  SPEAKER_01: dynamic who's gonna win the coach of the people and then
• 50:37
  SPEAKER_01: He's been doing the heat training,
• 50:38
  SPEAKER_01: and the only question is,
• 50:39
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 50:40
  SPEAKER_01: how's the altitude going to affect him?
• 50:41
  SPEAKER_01: He flew out to Western this week,
• 50:42
  SPEAKER_01: and he's kind of been getting used to it for a week,
• 50:44
  SPEAKER_01: so hopefully that helps because he lives at sea level in Georgia.
• 50:48
  SPEAKER_01: But other than that, I mean, I think he's a fan favorite.
• 50:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's definitely...
• 50:54
  SPEAKER_01: I think he has the possibility to be up there and will likely go top 10.
• 50:57
  And I definitely will be rooting for him because he's just a
• 51:00
  cool kid,
• 51:00
  quite frankly.
• 51:01
  SPEAKER_01: And it's weird, in my opinion, people calling people kids.
• 51:04
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think he's a kid.
• 51:04
  SPEAKER_01: He's just young compared to most ultra runners.
• 51:06
  SPEAKER_01: But I think it's kind of condescending when people call people a kid.
• 51:10
  SPEAKER_01: But I think he'll do awesome.
• 51:12
  SPEAKER_01: And he doesn't mind being called a kid.
• 51:13
  SPEAKER_01: And the documentary is called a kid.
• 51:14
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, I'm excited for Hans Troy.
• 51:18
  Next on my list,
• 51:19
  racing to the top 10 in the fastest 10th place time ever last
• 51:22
  year.
• 51:22
  SPEAKER_01: That's going to be Chris Myers with around 15, 18, I want to say.
• 51:26
  SPEAKER_01: Trail runner from Brooks, living in Boulder.
• 51:28
  He's kind of had a quiet but really good year leading up to
• 51:31
  Western in his racing schedule.
• 51:33
  SPEAKER_01: I really liked it.
• 51:34
  SPEAKER_01: He got a first place at Chuckanut in that super sloppy year.
• 51:36
  SPEAKER_01: Third place at Lake Sonoma, 50 miler.
• 51:38
  But he took some chances and he was up there in the lead the
• 51:40
  whole day and just kind of faded.
• 51:41
  SPEAKER_01: I think the top three guys were within like five minutes of each other.
• 51:45
  So,
• 51:45
  um,
• 51:46
  and then he also raced Black Indian third,
• 51:49
  uh,
• 51:49
  Black Indian 50K to a third place.
• 51:51
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, his race schedule looks really good.
• 51:53
  SPEAKER_01: He seems to be really fit.
• 51:54
  SPEAKER_01: He just ran Broken Arrow Ascent as well for funsies.
• 51:57
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 51:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's a strong pick for the back half of the top 10,
• 52:01
  SPEAKER_01: but I don't quite see him being in the top five.
• 52:05
  SPEAKER_01: And then on top of that too,
• 52:06
  SPEAKER_01: we've seen people debut and have a good year and then miss the next year.
• 52:11
  SPEAKER_01: Ryan Montgomery kind of comes to mind.
• 52:13
  He had a good 2023 being in the top 10 and then had a bad year
• 52:16
  last year coming into it.
• 52:18
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, it should be interesting to watch.
• 52:21
  Next male on the list is going to be the poster child for Dina
• 52:24
  Fitt on the men's
• 52:25
  SPEAKER_01: side,
• 52:25
  SPEAKER_01: and that is going to be the one and only German athlete,
• 52:27
  SPEAKER_01: Hannes Namburger.
• 52:29
  SPEAKER_01: He's a wizard with poles,
• 52:30
  SPEAKER_01: king of Lava Redo,
• 52:31
  SPEAKER_01: three-time winner and course record holder,
• 52:34
  SPEAKER_01: beat Tom Evans last year,
• 52:36
  SPEAKER_01: races the race like a wizard.
• 52:38
  I was really impressed with his race at Kenan's 100K coming in
• 52:40
  third to get his golden ticket.
• 52:42
  SPEAKER_01: He's really worked on his leg turnover, leg speed type of deal this year.
• 52:45
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like it's a new challenge for him.
• 52:47
  SPEAKER_01: He's used to doing really good at these mountain races.
• 52:49
  And he just kind of wanted to mix it up and get different
• 52:52
  stimulus and try something new.
• 52:54
  So I think he raced a half earlier this year and ran around
• 52:57
  like a 108,
• 52:57
  109.
• 52:57
  SPEAKER_01: So that's like, what, five minutes per mile pace, give or take.
• 53:00
  SPEAKER_01: And then...
• 53:04
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, just leaning into things that make them uncomfortable.
• 53:06
  SPEAKER_01: He's been posting a lot leading up to this race.
• 53:08
  He's been doing heat training on the bike and sweating his butt
• 53:12
  off on the bike.
• 53:13
  And then he also seems to be working with that core sensor
• 53:16
  company to kind of work
• 53:17
  SPEAKER_01: on his heat score or whatever.
• 53:19
  SPEAKER_01: Dave Roche has been posting a lot about that.
• 53:20
  SPEAKER_01: And so has Hannes Mernberger showing off their heat scores.
• 53:23
  And even guys like Tom Evans are doing it now,
• 53:25
  that core body temperature thing,
• 53:27
  whatever.
• 53:27
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see how that heat training is paying off.
• 53:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 53:31
  he is on the course right now and getting some recce runs in
• 53:34
  and he got to do some
• 53:34
  SPEAKER_01: recce in his,
• 53:36
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 53:36
  SPEAKER_01: race perk panions.
• 53:38
  SPEAKER_01: And then I think he'll do well.
• 53:39
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's a really dialed and calculated racer,
• 53:41
  SPEAKER_01: probably a guy with a lot of spreadsheets type of deal.
• 53:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think he'll probably go in the top 10.
• 53:46
  SPEAKER_01: I think top five is a stretch in my opinion.
• 53:47
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but I think he'll probably go in the top 10.
• 53:49
  I think he's a really calculated runner who really doesn't DNF
• 53:53
  or miss a lot.
• 53:53
  So,
• 53:54
  um,
• 53:54
  I think he'll be somewhere in the back half of that top 10 in
• 53:56
  my mind.
• 53:57
  SPEAKER_01: Next one on the list is going to be the one and only String Bean,
• 54:01
  SPEAKER_01: the collegiate miler turned through hiking legend,
• 54:04
  turned golden ticket winner after seven cracks at going for a
• 54:08
  golden ticket.
• 54:10
  SPEAKER_01: String Bean, super nice guy.
• 54:13
  SPEAKER_01: Seems awesome.
• 54:13
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome for the sport.
• 54:15
  SPEAKER_01: It's kind of funny.
• 54:16
  SPEAKER_01: I don't mean to be mean,
• 54:17
  SPEAKER_01: but,
• 54:18
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 54:18
  if Seth Rowling is like the poster child for the most beautiful
• 54:21
  stride up there
• 54:21
  SPEAKER_01: with Jim,
• 54:22
  SPEAKER_01: probably in my mind,
• 54:23
  SPEAKER_01: Shrink Bean's kind of like the opposite.
• 54:25
  SPEAKER_01: He never looks fast in photos or videos of him running.
• 54:27
  SPEAKER_01: He's kind of got T-Rex arms, he's pointed out on post himself.
• 54:31
  SPEAKER_01: But he absolutely is.
• 54:31
  I mean,
• 54:32
  he's run,
• 54:32
  you know,
• 54:32
  he's a super fast guy,
• 54:34
  ran like a low four-minute mile in college.
• 54:37
  And he's being paced by one of the toughest marathoners of all
• 54:39
  time,
• 54:40
  Des Linden.
• 54:40
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see.
• 54:41
  SPEAKER_01: I don't have my top 10 as of right now, just because it's his debut year.
• 54:45
  SPEAKER_01: And I think there's a lot of really good debutants in Western States,
• 54:48
  SPEAKER_01: but we'll talk about that more.
• 54:50
  SPEAKER_01: Next on the list is going to be Cocodono 250 winner.
• 54:52
  And I don't think he's super likely for the top 10,
• 54:54
  but I just want to talk about him anyways.
• 54:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's going to be Dan Green.
• 54:58
  I wonder how he'll do after this race,
• 55:00
  or I wonder how much he'll push in this race after...
• 55:04
  SPEAKER_01: doing so good at Cocodona.
• 55:06
  I'm curious if he's just going to kind of cruise or if he's
• 55:07
  going to really try to
• 55:08
  SPEAKER_01: be gunning for it.
• 55:09
  Either way,
• 55:10
  it seems like it's a low pressure situation because nobody
• 55:12
  expects much from him.
• 55:13
  SPEAKER_01: So hopefully he's not putting the pressure on himself.
• 55:15
  SPEAKER_01: He has been getting back to training pretty good.
• 55:17
  He had 300 mile weeks post Cocodona 250,
• 55:20
  not immediately after,
• 55:21
  but since then.
• 55:22
  SPEAKER_01: And then he's also been tapering down for the past two weeks.
• 55:25
  SPEAKER_01: So hopefully he's coming in fresh.
• 55:26
  SPEAKER_01: He's feeling good.
• 55:27
  SPEAKER_01: Sorry, there's a chair moving.
• 55:30
  And I hope he also shotguns another course at the finish
• 55:32
  because I think that's awesome.
• 55:34
  SPEAKER_01: So
• 55:35
  SPEAKER_01: um next on the list somebody who actually honestly considered
• 55:40
  SPEAKER_01: He should be high on this list.
• 55:40
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't mean to have him quite this low.
• 55:42
  SPEAKER_01: These next three guys actually should be high on this list.
• 55:44
  I didn't perfectly put it in order because it's still kind of
• 55:46
  an ultra sign-up
• 55:47
  SPEAKER_01: order,
• 55:47
  SPEAKER_01: so I didn't totally move it around.
• 55:49
  But the next three guys are definitely strong,
• 55:50
  heavy hitters,
• 55:51
  probably some favorites.
• 55:53
  First one's going to be Caleb Olsen,
• 55:54
  member of the SLC Daddy and Daddy Club.
• 55:57
  He's been crushing it this year with a winning course record at
• 55:59
  Trans Grand Canary,
• 56:00
  SPEAKER_01: being one of the best in our sport,
• 56:02
  SPEAKER_01: John Albin.
• 56:03
  SPEAKER_01: And then he was a resume selection for the U.S.
• 56:05
  SPEAKER_01: long trail team.
• 56:06
  SPEAKER_01: I was tempted to consider him a favorite,
• 56:08
  SPEAKER_01: like I said,
• 56:08
  and I decided it might be a little bit of a stretch given his
• 56:10
  fifth-place finish,
• 56:11
  SPEAKER_01: despite it being the fastest debut ever in Western last year in 14 hours,
• 56:14
  SPEAKER_01: 40 minutes.
• 56:16
  SPEAKER_01: I still think he's a strong pick for 3-7,
• 56:18
  but I feel like I have a hard time seeing him go 1-2 over some
• 56:21
  of the favorites in
• 56:21
  SPEAKER_01: this list.
• 56:23
  SPEAKER_01: I would love to be proven wrong.
• 56:24
  I mean,
• 56:24
  I think he's really leveled up this past year,
• 56:26
  and he's been really...
• 56:30
  doing an awesome job of kind of posting his mindset and racing
• 56:34
  mindset um through
• 56:35
  his Substack just kind of how he approaches races and he just
• 56:39
  posted something that
• 56:39
  that talks about all the factors it takes to win a race and you
• 56:43
  know the highlight
• 56:44
  of is basically it takes more than just fitness you know
• 56:46
  fitness is one variable
• 56:47
  there's also a ton of other variables and you want to try to
• 56:50
  maximize each but you
• 56:51
  know that every time you're focusing on one it's kind of
• 56:52
  lowering the other
• 56:53
  SPEAKER_01: So he was kind of like maybe not adding David Roach,
• 56:56
  SPEAKER_01: but basically just saying like,
• 56:57
  SPEAKER_01: hey,
• 56:57
  SPEAKER_01: it takes a lot more than just fitness.
• 56:58
  SPEAKER_01: He's not one of the fastest guys,
• 56:59
  but he beats guys that are routinely faster than him in a lot
• 57:02
  of distances.
• 57:03
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, I think he's a really strong pick.
• 57:06
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's pretty much a lot for top 10 in my opinion.
• 57:09
  um and i'm really excited to see i would love to be proven
• 57:11
  wrong and for him to win
• 57:12
  it all but i just don't know that i quite see him beating but i
• 57:16
  also don't know
• 57:17
  that i saw him beating john albin before this but i guess he's
• 57:20
  beat john alba two
• 57:20
  times in a row now because he beat him at western as well so
• 57:23
  we'll see um next one
• 57:24
  was that i think a lot of people will kind of be sleeping on
• 57:27
  and kind of um i don't
• 57:30
  SPEAKER_01: know i'm kind of i'm bullish on this guy um and that's going to be
• 57:33
  SPEAKER_01: Adrian McDonald, runner for ON, coming from Fort Collins.
• 57:37
  He's the two-time winner of the Leadville 100 in some of the
• 57:40
  fastest times ever
• 57:40
  SPEAKER_01: until David Roach broke the course record.
• 57:43
  SPEAKER_01: He was just 20 or 30 minutes behind David Roach.
• 57:46
  SPEAKER_01: He's really amazing on runnable stuff,
• 57:48
  SPEAKER_01: and he has had a really consistent build coming into Western States,
• 57:50
  SPEAKER_01: a bunch of her mile weeks.
• 57:51
  i think like i said i think he will be slept on but i think he
• 57:55
  has a really good
• 57:55
  chance of running well at this course and i think he's proven
• 57:57
  that he can win
• 57:59
  really fast and runnable 100 milers multiple times he got his
• 58:02
  golden ticket this
• 58:02
  year with the third place at terraware 100k but then he also
• 58:05
  won the terraware 100
• 58:06
  miler last year in a super fast time he's won the utmb koziosko
• 58:10
  in australia in
• 58:11
  SPEAKER_01: 1407 which is a runnable 100 miler um
• 58:14
  He's just done a lot of runnable 100 milers and has proven that
• 58:18
  he can do them
• 58:19
  SPEAKER_01: super well and super fast multiple times at this point.
• 58:22
  SPEAKER_01: So I think he's going to be well heat adapted.
• 58:24
  SPEAKER_01: He's also been putting out some YouTube stuff.
• 58:26
  I watched his first video on the YouTube series and I thought
• 58:29
  they did a really
• 58:29
  good job of kind of interviewing people around him because I
• 58:31
  think he's a pretty
• 58:31
  SPEAKER_01: quiet guy who's not
• 58:33
  SPEAKER_01: He's pretty soft-spoken,
• 58:35
  but they really kind of focus on the support system around him
• 58:37
  and how they view
• 58:38
  SPEAKER_01: him.
• 58:38
  SPEAKER_01: And so I thought it was pretty captivating stuff,
• 58:40
  SPEAKER_01: and I think it's worth the 20 minutes that they took to make it.
• 58:43
  And I think there's a second one and maybe a third one coming
• 58:45
  out here soon.
• 58:46
  SPEAKER_01: And then some next guys on this list,
• 58:48
  somebody who should definitely be higher on this list if we're
• 58:50
  weighing tops of
• 58:50
  favorites and could easily be the favorite is going to be the
• 58:53
  one and only the
• 58:54
  Rodfather fastest time of anyone in this entire field on
• 58:58
  Western States and second
• 59:00
  SPEAKER_01: fastest time only to people named Jim Walmsley.
• 59:03
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 59:04
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he pushed Jim to the limit last year.
• 59:07
  SPEAKER_01: Damn near won the thing.
• 59:08
  SPEAKER_01: Didn't quite make the move when he needed to.
• 59:10
  SPEAKER_01: He didn't look quite as good as Kane is 100K this year,
• 59:12
  but it seems like he had some asthma or breathing issues with
• 59:15
  the cold weather.
• 59:16
  He did take down a course record from Jim at 9-35 miler earlier
• 59:19
  in the year.
• 59:19
  SPEAKER_01: I think...
• 59:24
  SPEAKER_01: I still think I have him very high on my list.
• 59:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think he'll do very well.
• 59:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I think I should be putting more respect on his name.
• 59:29
  SPEAKER_01: And I think no matter how many times people are wrong,
• 59:31
  SPEAKER_01: people will probably keep slipping on him.
• 59:33
  But I think he should be up there and that he will be doing Rod
• 59:38
  Foller type things.
• 59:39
  SPEAKER_01: So I do have him high on the list as well.
• 59:41
  Next guy on the list who I think is going to be one of those
• 59:44
  debutants that does
• 59:45
  SPEAKER_01: really well is going to be Jeff Mogaviro,
• 59:50
  SPEAKER_01: athlete for ON out of Missoula,
• 59:52
  SPEAKER_01: Montana.
• 59:52
  SPEAKER_01: He's also a training partner and good friend with Adam Peterman.
• 59:55
  So he's been absorbing and steeping in the ways of the Western
• 59:58
  States' wisdom.
• 59:59
  He got his golden ticket last year with a very impressive
• 1:00:01
  second place at Javelina
• 1:00:02
  SPEAKER_01: just behind David Roach.
• 1:00:03
  SPEAKER_01: He's kind of in the category,
• 1:00:04
  SPEAKER_01: I know Corinne Malkin always talks about this,
• 1:00:06
  of the Hannah Allgood where people think of them as mountain
• 1:00:08
  athletes but forget
• 1:00:09
  SPEAKER_01: how fast they are.
• 1:00:10
  SPEAKER_01: And I definitely think he's in that category.
• 1:00:11
  He's sneaky fast because of tons of schema racing that he does
• 1:00:14
  in the winter.
• 1:00:15
  um and he's put in tons of huge training and he's actually the
• 1:00:18
  athlete if you guys
• 1:00:18
  have been listening to the boulder boys podcast they kind of
• 1:00:21
  added somebody or like
• 1:00:22
  said oh i'm not putting in 160 mile weeks well jeff milgaver is
• 1:00:26
  the guy who's
• 1:00:26
  putting in 160 mile weeks and it was only one that he did he
• 1:00:29
  peaked and he's kind
• 1:00:30
  SPEAKER_01: of been tapering down from that since um
• 1:00:33
  But he just recently made an Instagram post talking about it
• 1:00:36
  being the biggest
• 1:00:36
  SPEAKER_01: training block of his life coming into Western,
• 1:00:38
  where he's really pushed the envelope because he feels like he
• 1:00:40
  can't wait unless
• 1:00:41
  SPEAKER_01: you do.
• 1:00:41
  SPEAKER_01: So hopefully his taper is doing well.
• 1:00:45
  SPEAKER_01: Everything he does, he puts on Strava, so you can see his kind of graph.
• 1:00:49
  I think he could surprise a lot of people and I could easily
• 1:00:51
  see him in the top
• 1:00:52
  SPEAKER_01: five of his race.
• 1:00:52
  SPEAKER_01: He first turned heads when he got second at,
• 1:00:55
  turned my head at least when he got second at Broken Arrow last
• 1:00:57
  year and beat out
• 1:00:57
  SPEAKER_01: Adam Petergaard at the end of the race,
• 1:00:59
  SPEAKER_01: which almost nobody does.
• 1:01:02
  SPEAKER_01: So I was really impressed with that, both the race IQ and just like,
• 1:01:05
  durability wise um only race so far this year was his fourth
• 1:01:08
  base at canyons where
• 1:01:09
  he didn't need a gold ticket so to roll down i could
• 1:01:11
  legitimately see jeff mogavro
• 1:01:13
  it could be a far-fetched statement on my part but i could
• 1:01:15
  legitimately see him in
• 1:01:16
  the top three i think that he's fit enough fast enough and i
• 1:01:19
  think he's got advice
• 1:01:21
  SPEAKER_00: from adam pearson that he's going to do super well so um yes so that's
• 1:01:31
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, so that wraps up Jeff.
• 1:01:33
  SPEAKER_01: And then next one on the list,
• 1:01:33
  SPEAKER_01: we got an international athlete,
• 1:01:34
  SPEAKER_01: one of those kind of wild card type guys that's tough to tell.
• 1:01:37
  SPEAKER_01: Does super good at mountain races,
• 1:01:39
  SPEAKER_01: but we haven't seen him in a flatter,
• 1:01:41
  SPEAKER_01: faster,
• 1:01:41
  SPEAKER_01: more runnable race.
• 1:01:43
  SPEAKER_01: And that's going to be Peter Frano, Slovakian athlete for Scarpa.
• 1:01:46
  SPEAKER_01: Younger guy, I think he's 29.
• 1:01:47
  SPEAKER_01: He looks...
• 1:01:49
  even younger than that though um he's a great racer and he's
• 1:01:52
  really just kind of
• 1:01:53
  been doing better and better and better he's been in we don't
• 1:01:56
  like i said we don't
• 1:01:57
  often think of him as one of the speeder guys in the field but
• 1:01:58
  we just haven't seen
• 1:01:59
  him in faster races other than like he's done sky racing type
• 1:02:02
  stuff but nothing
• 1:02:03
  really kind of flatter and faster so i'm pretty interested to
• 1:02:06
  see how he does i
• 1:02:07
  follow him on strava and he's been in the u.s for a little bit
• 1:02:09
  over a month now and
• 1:02:10
  he started off with an altitude block in colorado at like nine
• 1:02:12
  or ten thousand feet
• 1:02:13
  He moved to California to get some course recce and scout out
• 1:02:16
  the course and run in
• 1:02:17
  SPEAKER_01: the hottest parts of the day.
• 1:02:18
  And then he also just recently rented the Grand Canyon and is
• 1:02:20
  doing some heat
• 1:02:21
  SPEAKER_01: stimulus out there.
• 1:02:21
  So he's been hitting a bunch of 100-mile weeks in the States,
• 1:02:24
  which is bigger volume for him.
• 1:02:25
  SPEAKER_01: I heard him interview with Francesco Pupi.
• 1:02:28
  SPEAKER_01: He doesn't usually do a huge running volume.
• 1:02:29
  SPEAKER_01: So this is kind of big for him.
• 1:02:31
  And he's already done Transvolkania in a terrible weather year
• 1:02:33
  this year and got
• 1:02:34
  SPEAKER_01: the win over guys like David Sinclair and Matt Daniels,
• 1:02:37
  SPEAKER_01: Andreas Reiterer,
• 1:02:38
  SPEAKER_01: and a historically fast time.
• 1:02:40
  SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, I think he might surprise some people.
• 1:02:42
  I could easily see him being one of those kind of sleeper picks
• 1:02:44
  for international
• 1:02:45
  SPEAKER_01: athletes in the top 10.
• 1:02:48
  SPEAKER_01: So that'll be exciting to see.
• 1:02:50
  And,
• 1:02:50
  yeah,
• 1:02:51
  I think he's probably going to be one of the international
• 1:02:52
  people.
• 1:02:53
  SPEAKER_01: Sorry, I was counting on my women's side.
• 1:02:57
  SPEAKER_01: I have one, two...
• 1:02:59
  three four five six seven internationals in the top ten men's
• 1:03:04
  side i've only got
• 1:03:05
  three i think so like i said i'm gonna change my list like a
• 1:03:07
  bajillion times so um
• 1:03:09
  two more athletes to go over and then i'm gonna talk about my
• 1:03:11
  picks so next one's
• 1:03:13
  gonna be ryan montgomery runner for janji race western states
• 1:03:15
  still top 10 in 2023
• 1:03:16
  the seventh place but had a disappointing year last year with a
• 1:03:19
  bad day out and
• 1:03:20
  he's been trying to get that golden ticket and get back in ever
• 1:03:22
  since he got six
• 1:03:23
  SPEAKER_01: that tara wearing just missed out on gold ticket
• 1:03:25
  SPEAKER_01: And then he got,
• 1:03:26
  and then he raced up fifth place at Canyons and had some luck
• 1:03:29
  where Francesco could
• 1:03:30
  SPEAKER_01: be passed on his ticket.
• 1:03:31
  SPEAKER_01: Jeff already had one, so it rolled down.
• 1:03:33
  He lacked some of the support that some of the other guys with
• 1:03:35
  shoe sponsorships
• 1:03:36
  SPEAKER_01: and stuff have,
• 1:03:37
  SPEAKER_01: but I'm sure he's going to be really focused coming into this race.
• 1:03:40
  SPEAKER_01: I don't see him higher than the back half of the top 10,
• 1:03:43
  SPEAKER_01: but I think he could be somewhere in the top 10.
• 1:03:45
  Last one I want to talk about is Hiroki Kai,
• 1:03:47
  Japanese runner,
• 1:03:48
  crazy Cairo YouTuber.
• 1:03:50
  He got his golden ticket with a second place at TerraWare just
• 1:03:53
  behind Dan Jones.
• 1:03:54
  SPEAKER_01: I say just behind.
• 1:03:55
  I mean,
• 1:03:55
  he was like 20 minutes behind,
• 1:03:56
  but he was second place with Dan Jones.
• 1:03:58
  SPEAKER_01: Races a lot and has mixed results.
• 1:04:00
  SPEAKER_01: He also raced like Sonoma 50 to a fourth place,
• 1:04:02
  50 miler to fourth place and ran cans 100k two weeks later and
• 1:04:05
  didn't do as well.
• 1:04:07
  SPEAKER_01: I don't see him as much in the top 10, but I just want to talk about him.
• 1:04:09
  SPEAKER_01: He did win a golden ticket and he could surprise some of us.
• 1:04:12
  SPEAKER_01: He seems to be pretty fast, so.
• 1:04:14
  SPEAKER_01: So that kind of wraps up.
• 1:04:14
  SPEAKER_01: That's 18 names we talked about on the men's side.
• 1:04:16
  SPEAKER_01: Like I said, we only got 10 places in the top for the top picks.
• 1:04:20
  SPEAKER_01: And once again,
• 1:04:21
  SPEAKER_01: with that being said,
• 1:04:21
  I am probably going to change this list like a bajillion times
• 1:04:26
  by the time it's all
• 1:04:26
  SPEAKER_01: said and done.
• 1:04:27
  SPEAKER_01: But right now I'll give you my 10 through 1 subject to change,
• 1:04:30
  SPEAKER_01: subject to all the other stuff I just talked about.
• 1:04:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think I went pretty in-depth.
• 1:04:33
  SPEAKER_01: So 10th place, I got Chris Myers, I guess going back to back 10th place.
• 1:04:37
  SPEAKER_01: 9th place, Hanes Namburger, German athlete for Dina Fit.
• 1:04:40
  SPEAKER_01: 8th place, Boulder Boy, Seth Ruling.
• 1:04:42
  SPEAKER_01: 7th place, Caleb Olsen.
• 1:04:44
  SPEAKER_01: 6th place, Adrian McDonald.
• 1:04:46
  SPEAKER_01: 5th, Jeff Mogaviro.
• 1:04:48
  SPEAKER_01: 4th, The Rodfather, Rod Farvard.
• 1:04:51
  And then the top three,
• 1:04:52
  I've got my three favorites that I mentioned from the get-go.
• 1:04:54
  SPEAKER_01: 3rd place, I got Adam Peterman.
• 1:04:56
  SPEAKER_01: 2nd place, Dan Jones.
• 1:04:57
  SPEAKER_01: And 1st place, the one and only, Julian Jornay.
• 1:05:00
  SPEAKER_01: So subject to change,
• 1:05:02
  SPEAKER_01: I'll probably shuffle,
• 1:05:03
  SPEAKER_01: move,
• 1:05:03
  SPEAKER_01: shuffle,
• 1:05:03
  SPEAKER_01: move,
• 1:05:04
  SPEAKER_01: especially based off all the Western States stuff that's coming out.
• 1:05:07
  But if you're anything like me,
• 1:05:09
  you can't get enough of the Western States stuff.
• 1:05:10
  SPEAKER_01: You're just going to keep listening.
• 1:05:11
  So hopefully this is just one of many things you can use to
• 1:05:14
  help make your picks.
• 1:05:15
  SPEAKER_01: And hopefully I can help you make better, more informed, or wiser picks.
• 1:05:19
  SPEAKER_01: But I think that kind of wraps up my Western States coverage.
• 1:05:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's my second longest episode ever, and my back hurts.
• 1:05:25
  SPEAKER_01: And it gets tiring talking for an hour and a half.
• 1:05:27
  SPEAKER_01: or an hour plus, I guess.
• 1:05:29
  SPEAKER_01: But I really appreciate you guys listening.
• 1:05:30
  SPEAKER_01: I always appreciate you guys supporting.
• 1:05:32
  SPEAKER_01: And thank you so much for listening.
• 1:05:34
  SPEAKER_01: And I can't wait to do the next one.
• 1:05:36
  SPEAKER_01: I think we'll probably do maybe a,
• 1:05:38
  I'm going to try to get Lavarado and Marathon of Mont Blanc
• 1:05:41
  slash 90K to Mont
• 1:05:42
  SPEAKER_01: Blanc.
• 1:05:43
  But we'll see Western was really the priority and hopefully you
• 1:05:45
  guys enjoyed this.