Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Waffles, Beers & NFL Win Totals: AFC Edition

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Waffles, Beers & NFL Win Totals: AFC Edition · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The Crown
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: your host, back at it with the first lady of
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: the pod, Miss Kendri Middleton, the Prime Minister of DJEN
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Nation Stuckey, who on video right now for the first
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: time is straight on. You look like a panelist on
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: CNN or Fox News right now. We also have Evan Abrams,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the Prime Minister of Primers, is here with us as
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: well afc Win Totals today, which means we get to
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: talk about all of our favorite teams, the Jags, the Finns,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: and the Ravens.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: I always forget, Evan. Are you a Jet sky or
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: a Giants guy.
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: I'm a Giants guy. I have had to be picked.
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: But I will say this, and this is going to
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: be a one we'll talk about in a second. I
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: kind of love the Jets schedule video. Maybe I'm alone.
• 0:57
  Speaker 4: Oh you watched them all?
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: I did. I got.
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: That's the thing, Evan.
• 1:01
  Speaker 5: You like understand art and like the avant garde, the casual,
• 1:04
  Speaker 5: And that was my whole point about it, was that
• 1:06
  Speaker 5: the casual football fan won't appreciate it because they're not
• 1:09
  Speaker 5: on that side of the internet.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: That was the I was thinking of the bear pain.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: It was the one where they made the primary colors.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Gotcha, Yeah, and then they had follow up videos. It's
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: it's a good gig, Evin.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Don't you think you're a little bit behind on that?
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Like being up to date on the release videos seems
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: it seems like we're we're a little.
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: I want to say, I'm right on time for like
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: my schedule, like this is when I watched the video,
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: so I'm I'm right in line.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: That was so.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: That was so last week Kendro by the way, last
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: episode for her before she gets to jet away to Africa.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Kendro, it's been great knowing you.
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: Oh my god. Wait, okay, you guys are gonna find
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: this so funny.
• 1:51
  Speaker 5: One for people who weren't on our pre show, which
• 1:53
  Speaker 5: is all of you listening. You can't see it, But
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: I have all the things that I voted out of
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: my suitcase on my couch right now. But too, I
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: was doing some research about the crime rate in the
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: capital city that we're flying into, and they come here,
• 2:08
  Speaker 5: wind Duck.
• 2:09
  Speaker 6: Are you gonna ok.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Yes, Okay, stuff is definitely the only person either on
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: this podcast or listening to or watching this podcast that.
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: Knows what that that's where that is, Yes, and they
• 2:23
  Speaker 5: can compare the crime rate to Memphis. So I'm basically
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: going on vacation to African Jacksonville, So I'm gonna feel
• 2:30
  Speaker 5: right at home.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: Wear a lot of Leopard.
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: I am not allowed to.
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: I literally can only wear a khaki and alive for
• 2:41
  Speaker 5: the majority of our trip, like when we're like driving
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: through like sand dunes and buggies and like going on
• 2:47
  Speaker 5: our hot air balloon ride at sunrise with me and
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: my girlfriend that do accidentally all of the most romantic
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: shit of our lives together because we travel together, I
• 2:56
  Speaker 5: can wear what I want, but like I can't wear black,
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: I can't wear navy blue, I can't wear prints. I'm
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: wearing camo on our Germany leg because I just think
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: that that'll be an easy neutral to have when I
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: can wear things that I want. Other than that it
• 3:09
  Speaker 5: is green and khaki, and some days it's going to
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: be in the thirties and some days it's gonna be
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: eighty five.
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: So pray for your girl. If you don't hear from me,
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: I love you.
• 3:17
  Speaker 6: Guys, which shots did you have to get? Did you get?
• 3:19
  Speaker 6: Did you have to do like yellow fever or typhoid or.
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: Pet or oh my god, you weren't here when I
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: was micro dosing typhoid on this show.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Holy crap.
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: I did the pills and not the shot for typhoid.
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: But the only way that I would have had to
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: do yellow fever was flying in like if you connected
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: through a country that has yellow fever.
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: So he didn't have to do that, but I had
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: to do like polio.
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: I had to get all the HEP shots again from
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: when I was a kid.
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: I had to do typhoid. I had to do a
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: like an m R or something. I don't know, measles
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: all this cool?
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: I had two different rounds of vaccines.
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: And for those of you out there, if you are
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: planning to go to Africa or planning to go on
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: a so far, one is a full time job planning it.
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: And two, your vaccines will be more expensive than your
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: flights because insurance will not touch them because they're elective.
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: So make sure you know that going into it.
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: I will say this, We're going the winter and you
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: don't have to worry a lot about that stuff.
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm doing malaria pills.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: So.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: Unbelievable. Stucky hit us with a question. Hey, this is
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: a dumb question.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: Let me ask you a personal question.
• 4:35
  Speaker 6: Kind of question?
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Is that is question?
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 4:38
  Speaker 6: Well, I am I always whenever I watch back our shows,
• 4:41
  Speaker 6: I'm always like because I wear my cameras and set up.
• 4:43
  Speaker 6: I'm always like in and out of the box so like.
• 4:47
  Speaker 6: But now my internet's out. I'm on five gen I.
• 4:50
  Speaker 6: For some reason, my iMac doesn't let me hook up
• 4:53
  Speaker 6: to my hotspot. So I just got my uh my
• 4:56
  Speaker 6: laptop and and my mac book. This is great. I
• 5:02
  Speaker 6: mean should I maybe I should just do this from
• 5:05
  Speaker 6: now on.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: I vote this. I like this straight off.
• 5:10
  Speaker 6: Video producers because I do like to have but usually
• 5:14
  Speaker 6: when I'm doing the show, I have my because my
• 5:17
  Speaker 6: camera's further away, so it's the moves are more exaggerate.
• 5:21
  Speaker 6: I don't have this kind of focused me in but
• 5:22
  Speaker 6: I don't have my laptop to like look at things.
• 5:24
  Speaker 6: But anyway, conversation for another day. My question for today,
• 5:30
  Speaker 6: it's an easy one. We were talking about this or
• 5:32
  Speaker 6: before the show. For me, it's really easy, but I
• 5:35
  Speaker 6: haven't kind of disagreed, so I made it the show
• 5:37
  Speaker 6: Fantasy Football, a lot of people are either discussing their
• 5:40
  Speaker 6: leagues or putting them together, and one of the big
• 5:44
  Speaker 6: things about them are punishments. One of the most famous
• 5:47
  Speaker 6: punishments is the waffle house one where you have to
• 5:49
  Speaker 6: go twenty four hours and you shave an hour off
• 5:53
  Speaker 6: for every waffle that you eat. If you had the choice,
• 5:58
  Speaker 6: do you can take You can do waffles or beers.
• 6:04
  Speaker 6: One which are you choosing?
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: And two?
• 6:06
  Speaker 6: What do you think is easiest? I think this is
• 6:09
  Speaker 6: a no brainer. But Brandon, we already gave our thoughts
• 6:13
  Speaker 6: before you you hopped on what do you what are
• 6:16
  Speaker 6: you doing?
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, I do like to partake in the occasional
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: night tonight brew, but in moderation. There's no moderation in
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: twenty four of them. I drank two and fell asleep
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: during the NFL draft, So we're talking about easy.
• 6:33
  Speaker 6: You're you're not gonna have twenty four so like you'd
• 6:36
  Speaker 6: be there for like four to five hours and you drink,
• 6:40
  Speaker 6: you know, nineteen twenty beers.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: That's a lot, even if you're drinking light, it's still
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: a lot.
• 6:49
  Speaker 6: Waffles on the like, I think this is such an
• 6:52
  Speaker 6: easy decision to go beer I'd bring a beer bong
• 6:55
  Speaker 6: and I do. I try to do eighteen to twenty
• 6:58
  Speaker 6: and just get out of there in four to six hours.
• 7:00
  Speaker 6: To put some math behind it, because Evan was kind
• 7:02
  Speaker 6: of leaning your side, Kenjer is leaning beers. A beer
• 7:06
  Speaker 6: is what average calories? One hundred and fifty to two hundred.
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: Even if you do like a cores light, it's like
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: ninety Yeah, then that.
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: Beers probably less calories.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: This is a way less.
• 7:17
  Speaker 6: One is like five hundred calories.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so are we talking about talking caies?
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: Well, I wasn't thinking of it from a calorie standpoint,
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: so like just think.
• 7:28
  Speaker 6: About how much fuller you'd be trying to do the
• 7:31
  Speaker 6: So it's four to ten according to Google for a
• 7:34
  Speaker 6: waffle and a beer. We'll call it one fifty. So
• 7:38
  Speaker 6: we're talking triple calories.
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: At least beers are way easier.
• 7:45
  Speaker 6: Yeah, beers beers all day.
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: I'd get out of there in six hours, no.
• 7:50
  Speaker 6: Lights, ninety six calories, so like, yeah, not even question.
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: I would do cores lights and I would be out
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: of there in six hours.
• 7:58
  Speaker 6: If we were talking about like the little six extra
• 8:01
  Speaker 6: for fun, the.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Little Pole apart ones, like the Little Pole Apart ones
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: that my kid eats with the little cinemas.
• 8:11
  Speaker 6: Hicks that like fill you up.
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: Kravitz is always trying to find an angle to weasel
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: out of something.
• 8:19
  Speaker 6: And I'm not sitting there for eighteen hours in a
• 8:21
  Speaker 6: waffle house like I would.
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: I would do it for free.
• 8:24
  Speaker 6: So I'm trying to get out of the as early
• 8:25
  Speaker 6: as possible beers beer.
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: Can I drink my twenty four beers and just sit
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: in the waffle house for as long as I.
• 8:32
  Speaker 6: Want drink twenty first hour and then stay there.
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: That's yeah to me, blacked out in the booth.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Twenty four hours in a waffle house. Is that's a
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville baptism, I think true.
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's my favorite restaurant. It's my death rowmeal.
• 8:47
  Speaker 6: That's crazy. But that's a conversation the other day. All right, AFC,
• 8:51
  Speaker 6: let's get to the ic.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: I don't do enough of the fantasy football punishment and stuff.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: I need to get more into.
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: That before we move on.
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: Hold on, I think our fantasy football punish meant this year.
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: Feel free to steal it is the loser of our
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: league is gonna have to put on a hobby horsing
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: show in the park for at least thirty minutes.
• 9:11
  Speaker 6: That does sound awful homework. And when Kender's back one
• 9:17
  Speaker 6: of the episodes, I'll give you, guys, like a day
• 9:19
  Speaker 6: or two heads up, come with your best unique. I mean,
• 9:25
  Speaker 6: you just gave one Kendrick, but your unique fantasy football
• 9:27
  Speaker 6: punishment for all those out there that are thinks incredible.
• 9:30
  Speaker 6: We'll have one in a couple weeks.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: I have one that I just thought of skipping two
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: episodes of the Favorites to go to Africa.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: About the.
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: Micro dosing typhoid on the show for two weeks.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have to We're gonna have to come up
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: with something worse than what Kendrick does on her free time.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Tuesday's episode was all about the NFC. Go and check
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: out the wind Totals episode to see.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: Who we are high on and who we are low on.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: Over there. Our attention today is stuck.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: You mentioned shifts to the AFC, a conference that was
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: beyond drunk last year. The Ravens missed the playoffs, the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Chiefs missed the playoffs, the Bills fell short again in
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. Burrow and the Bengals finished with six wins.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: The conference was dominated by Drake may Bo Nicks, and
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence. Even Daniel Jones looked like Joe Montana for
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: about eight weeks. So it feels safe to say that
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: this conference is wide open going into twenty twenty six.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Before we get into the win totals, Kendra, how much
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: does last year's unpredictability in this conference layer into your
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: analysis going into the season?
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: First of all, no, Trevor Lawrence, love there is insane
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: by the way, You're a fraud.
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: You're a fake.
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: Second, kind of a lot because I think that.
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: It's hard to listen last year. I think when we
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: were previewing.
• 10:53
  Speaker 5: The season, I was like Josh Allen, I never wish
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: injury on anybody, but he's been predominantly healthy throughout his career,
• 11:00
  Speaker 5: stays healthy through the season.
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: For the most part. I know he was dealing with that.
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: I think it was an ankle at the end of
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: the year or whatever.
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: But you kind of have to guess at some point
• 11:07
  Speaker 5: that something is going to come for everyone. That's kind
• 11:11
  Speaker 5: of the conversation throughout the league is nobody stays healthy
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: at the entirety of their career if they're playing pro football,
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: So you kind of have to think about it in
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: my opinion, and like, Okay, well, there's absolutely no way
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: that something like that happens again. But you also, I think,
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: at least when I'm doing a fantasy football research, at least,
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: I'm like, Okay, well, who are the backup quarterbacks in
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: the league? If this crap really gets insane or somebody
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: gets hurt, whose win totals can I even kind of
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: handicap off of if for some reason they have a backup.
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: So that's definitely something that I look at, at least from
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: the quarterback perspective, which we saw just run ramp at
• 11:43
  Speaker 5: last year. But there's no way that something like that
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: happens again. I don't think the NFL can afford for
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: something like that to happen again. Like the Philip Rivers
• 11:51
  Speaker 5: saga was fun for entertainment and something to talk about
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: for a while, but we can.
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: As a society go through that again.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're always gonna find something that intrigues. Since the NFL,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: it's just the it's the hamster wheel that never stops stucky.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Are you leaning more into let's let's let's double down
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: on the chaos from last year, or are you looking
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: at some of those established teams to reassert their dominance
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: like Baltimore, LA, Kansas City.
• 12:19
  Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a fascinating the conference. I can't wait to
• 12:22
  Speaker 6: talk about this conference all summer. We're talking about Action
• 12:26
  Speaker 6: Nework podcast here writing about it. I'm just super super
• 12:31
  Speaker 6: pumped to just get a feel and make some predictions.
• 12:35
  Speaker 6: And because basically where we stay with the AFC is
• 12:39
  Speaker 6: the I think the overatching question that you're getting at
• 12:43
  Speaker 6: is did those teams that you just mentioned, great, this
• 12:46
  Speaker 6: was a quarterback dominated league and the AFC was at
• 12:50
  Speaker 6: the forefront of that for you know, seven eight years,
• 12:54
  Speaker 6: starting with Mahomes into Lamar Burrow Allen. You know, but
• 13:00
  Speaker 6: did which of those teams windows have closed? Have the
• 13:05
  Speaker 6: as the Chiefs, you know, is their dominant dynasty run over?
• 13:09
  Speaker 6: And because they have a lot of roster questions, right,
• 13:10
  Speaker 6: and this is what happens when you have to pay
• 13:12
  Speaker 6: a quarterback gets tougher to maintain. But look, they have
• 13:15
  Speaker 6: a lot of questions on defense, There's still questions the
• 13:18
  Speaker 6: offensive line, wide receiver, Mahomes' injury, the Ravens like and
• 13:23
  Speaker 6: they and but the Chiefs are kind of running it
• 13:24
  Speaker 6: back in a way. They're trying to go younger on defense.
• 13:26
  Speaker 6: But the Ravens, they said, we need to make a
• 13:29
  Speaker 6: coaching change. You know, you have mentor come in. What
• 13:32
  Speaker 6: does that do schematical on their defense because their defense
• 13:34
  Speaker 6: has questions linebacker mate Bouquet status, the secondary still have
• 13:39
  Speaker 6: some question marks, and then the at center and then
• 13:43
  Speaker 6: the Bengals. They're hoping that a revamp defense that showed
• 13:46
  Speaker 6: signs of life at the end of last year now
• 13:49
  Speaker 6: adds Dexter Lawrence. That's a couple other pieces. Is that
• 13:52
  Speaker 6: will that help Burrow and company get over the hump
• 13:55
  Speaker 6: and get back to the super Bowl? And then the Bills.
• 13:58
  Speaker 6: I think what the Bills are doing is they've been
• 14:00
  Speaker 6: investing in defense for years, young pieces, building depth on
• 14:05
  Speaker 6: the defensive line. There's still questions at linebacker and at
• 14:07
  Speaker 6: safety and corner. But they're hoping a coaching change along
• 14:12
  Speaker 6: with a more aggressive defense, which is what has burnt them.
• 14:15
  Speaker 6: I mean the Bills. If you go back in their
• 14:16
  Speaker 6: playoff losses, it's actually stunning. Their playoff losses fifty two
• 14:21
  Speaker 6: nine kneel down drives. They've even up twenty five touchdowns
• 14:23
  Speaker 6: and only forced twelve punts, given up almost four points
• 14:27
  Speaker 6: per drive. Insane so they said, well, let's get rid
• 14:30
  Speaker 6: of the defensive coach, but bringing Jim Leonard, it's going
• 14:32
  Speaker 6: to be a complete change, a complete one to eighty.
• 14:35
  Speaker 6: From a schematic philosophical perspective, it's instead of being reactive,
• 14:40
  Speaker 6: Ben but don't break, they're going to be aggressive. How
• 14:42
  Speaker 6: does that translate, especially in the postseason for the Bills
• 14:45
  Speaker 6: because if they stay healthy, you know the offense is
• 14:47
  Speaker 6: going to be good. So there's all these questions. We
• 14:50
  Speaker 6: have to determine which of these windows are actually closed,
• 14:53
  Speaker 6: which remain open and why? And then you have all
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: those teams that are like the next tier that took
• 14:57
  Speaker 6: a step up. And what my last thought on this
• 15:00
  Speaker 6: before I keep rambling is a lot of those teams
• 15:03
  Speaker 6: have to be kicking themselves because with these windows and
• 15:07
  Speaker 6: we're wondering are they closed or they open? Where do
• 15:08
  Speaker 6: they stand? Last year was the year to take advantage
• 15:12
  Speaker 6: in the AFC, and the Bills did what the Bills do.
• 15:15
  Speaker 6: They can't get a stop on third down. But the
• 15:18
  Speaker 6: Ravens missed the at the Ravens, the Chiefs, the Bengals,
• 15:23
  Speaker 6: they all weren't there. And it was the Patriots who
• 15:24
  Speaker 6: ended up taking advantage of the injuries and the soft
• 15:27
  Speaker 6: schedule and all those teams missing. So one of those teams,
• 15:30
  Speaker 6: you know, you would have thought would have broken through
• 15:32
  Speaker 6: last year, but they didn't. So and look, the AFC
• 15:35
  Speaker 6: still has the Chargers, your tackles healthy, they have and
• 15:38
  Speaker 6: we'll talk about them. The Texans in their defense. So
• 15:42
  Speaker 6: there's the you know, the Patriots again, what are they
• 15:45
  Speaker 6: going to do to follow up the Jags? Like the AFC,
• 15:47
  Speaker 6: as you said, is wide open and it's fascinating top
• 15:51
  Speaker 6: to bottom.
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: I think it has to be the Bills though for me,
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: because yeah, their defense is they've gotten better on defense,
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: but Josh Allen does not have a receiver, let alone
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: a number one receiver, and it doesn't seem like they're
• 16:04
  Speaker 5: willing to bend on that at all. So that concerns me.
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: And the other thing is new coach. Maybe the new
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: stadium will help. But this is all about going through
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: their schedule and their schedule. While their division is easy,
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: their schedule is tough. And who is Josh Allen throwing to,
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: like we know in the last we are you.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Are you completely selling all belief in Dj Moore? I
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: mean that was a pretty big acquisition that they they
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: they at least attempted to rectify the Keon Coleman draft
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: pick and give Alan somebody to toss.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: The rock to.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, Chicago clearly felt like they had seen enough,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: but that was an investment that they made.
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: I'm out on DJ Moore.
• 16:45
  Speaker 5: Khalil Shakir had a moment to step up last year
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: and just couldn't. I don't know if you couldn't handle
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: the pressure or it just wasn't the workload was just
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: too much.
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: And I know that in the modern NFL, the Dalkin Kid,
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: Dawson Knox tight ends as receivers. Things help you, But
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: Dalton's going to be getting doubled at this point. So
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: I just I don't think that they did. Is DJ
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: a number one for you guys?
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: No?
• 17:12
  Speaker 6: But my point is like the Bills offense has never
• 17:14
  Speaker 6: been the problem ever in any of their playoff losses.
• 17:18
  Speaker 6: It's just Josh Allen and now adding DJ Moore doesn't help.
• 17:21
  Speaker 6: I mean, it doesn't hurt. It's only going to help
• 17:23
  Speaker 6: that room. I mean last year. Look, go look at
• 17:25
  Speaker 6: all their playoff losses over the years. They're always scoring thirty.
• 17:28
  Speaker 6: It's that they can't get a stop Late last year
• 17:31
  Speaker 6: they scored twenty seven and thirty points, and that wasn't
• 17:35
  Speaker 6: good enough. Thirty points wasn't good enough against Bo Nicks
• 17:38
  Speaker 6: and the Broncos. Like, that's not on Josh Allen on
• 17:41
  Speaker 6: the offense, it's the defense. How much can this philosophical
• 17:44
  Speaker 6: change in Jim Leonard and then some of these young
• 17:45
  Speaker 6: pieces stepping up. That's where I think is going to
• 17:49
  Speaker 6: make or break the Bills in the playoffs. Like when
• 17:52
  Speaker 6: they face these top tier offenses, even though with McDermott
• 17:55
  Speaker 6: and his defensive pedigree, they haven't been able to get stops,
• 17:58
  Speaker 6: especially when late when they need them. Can they can
• 18:01
  Speaker 6: this change actually get them there? That's what I think
• 18:04
  Speaker 6: is going to make or break the Bills.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: Well, before we get to ahead of ourselves, I want
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: to remind everybody that we're talking win totals though, so
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: what they do in the playoffs, there's time to have
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: that discussion. There are numbers at ten and a half
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Juice to the over.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: They open up a new stadium at that'll debut Week
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: two against the Lions. I'm already penciling that in as
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: a bet on Buffalo. They have a first time head
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: coach and Joe Brady. That is an interesting factor to consider.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: We mentioned adding Dj Moore to the offense, Bradley Chubb
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: on defense, CJ. Gardner Johnson, They've been drafting defense for years.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: They're just as consistent as it gets. They've gone over
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: their win total in six straight seasons. Their strength of
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: schedule sits right in the middle of the pack. Evan,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Before we get into which side of this we would
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: be on, I'm curious about the first year head coach
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: and the Ravens, who are a similar type of team.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Do you expect them to assert their dominance again in
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: the AFC? Also breaking in a first year head coach
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: and Jesse Minter, do we have anything on first year
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: head coaches taking over for good teams?
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I mean it's a small sample size, but
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: if you look seventeen games schedule we've seen, I believe
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: it's six new hires off of a team who won
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: eight plus games. So basically you're looking at like a
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: bit of expectations, bring in a new regime, hope for
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: better results. The win total, I mean six is basically nothing,
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: so it's hard to take anything away. Two three to
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: one win totals but I think the thing that's more
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: interesting is of those six they went forty and fifty
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: nine against the spread in those years. So I think
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: that could be intriguing in terms of expectations in terms
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: of the win total. Like I think Stucky said it right,
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: like brand new regime, bring in new wide receivers, like
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: you're just gonna see a lot of different things from
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: So I think analyzing them through the off season will
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: be the interesting part. But I think overall, if you
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: look at their schedule, this is what I look at,
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: at least the early schedule in the first nine weeks
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: is actually pretty terrible and pretty brutal.
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: I think we're.
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: Pretty losing teams on this schedule, and two of them
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: are in their division. That's it, three teams who I
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: think will have a losing record schedule.
• 20:25
  Speaker 6: Their schedule is definitely difficult early on, and then with
• 20:28
  Speaker 6: a new defense, how long is that going to take?
• 20:31
  Speaker 6: You know, is there going to be growing pains early?
• 20:32
  Speaker 6: And like if you just look at some of the
• 20:33
  Speaker 6: nuances of the schedule, like they for example, you get
• 20:39
  Speaker 6: Detroit at home early in the season, like you would
• 20:42
  Speaker 6: want to get golf out in the out out, you know, outside.
• 20:47
  Speaker 6: If you know, we're talking years past late in the year.
• 20:50
  Speaker 6: They get the Chiefs later in the year, right, Mahomes
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: injury status, you know, you got him early on in
• 20:58
  Speaker 6: the season might be a little bit better. You know,
• 21:00
  Speaker 6: they go to the Rams and then to Vegas like
• 21:04
  Speaker 6: a west coast trip, or before their bye week. They
• 21:09
  Speaker 6: get the Chargers at home early on in the season.
• 21:13
  Speaker 6: So the Texans like they could if there's some growing
• 21:17
  Speaker 6: pains here with some of these changes, they out of
• 21:19
  Speaker 6: the gates. You know, they could start two and three,
• 21:23
  Speaker 6: two and four, and then you're gonna be struggling to
• 21:26
  Speaker 6: go over that winter. I project them at like ten
• 21:28
  Speaker 6: point three right now, but there's a lot of work
• 21:30
  Speaker 6: to do in this offseason. I'm curious to see how
• 21:32
  Speaker 6: the defensive depth chart shakes out. The offense will be fine.
• 21:36
  Speaker 6: I think the offense will be fine as long as
• 21:38
  Speaker 6: they stay healthy. I mean, the offensive line should be fine.
• 21:40
  Speaker 6: Can Kin kid stay healthy? More is only going to help.
• 21:42
  Speaker 6: It's Josh Allen, everybody eats. I'm more interested in this
• 21:46
  Speaker 6: defense and can it raise their ceiling even higher than
• 21:49
  Speaker 6: the red season? More importantly, is that going to be
• 21:51
  Speaker 6: the difference if presumably they get to the postseason, which
• 21:54
  Speaker 6: I expect them to do.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: I would tilt towards the over, but that's just based
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: on what they've been able to produce historically. Historically the
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: Chiefs have been an over team as well, and then
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: that hit the skids last year. The first thing we
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: have to discuss with them they're over under is a
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: ten and a half. Juice to the under is the
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: timeline of Patrick Mahomes. He tore his ACL in Week
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: fourteen last year. There's no guarantee he's going to be
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: ready for the start of the season or that'll be
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent. And Kendrick mentioned, let's pay attention to
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: the backup quarterbacks. They've Justin Fields ready to get snaps
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: if Mahomes can't go. I trust Andy Reid to at
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: least lift the floor of Justin Fields, but he's not Mahomes.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: They added Kenneth Walker this offseason. They have not had
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: a thousand yard rusher since Kareem Hunt in twenty seventeen,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: so they desperately need that. They get tonga from the
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: defensive line of New England. They lost Trent McDuffie. Who
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: knows what in the world is going on with Rashi Rice.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know how in the world you could confidently
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: bet a Chiefs over. I wanted desperately at the end
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: of last season to be on the Chiefs going into
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: this year, and everything I look at tells me to
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Red Siren, stay away, Kendra, where are you at?
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: I don't hate them this year, I gotta be honest.
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: I want to hate them so bad.
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: We need to talk about the aj Brown rumors at
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: some point that have surfaced in the last like sixteen hours.
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: But this is one of the teams that might be
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: in conversation for him allegedly or for Stefan Diggs, which
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: I think Stefan would be a better fit for them,
• 23:30
  Speaker 5: especially because they don't care what he has going on
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: in his personal life clearly. But this schedule shakes out
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: kind of perfectly for them, with a timetable for Mahomes
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: to return right like you shirt, you open against the
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: Broncos division situation at home, It's gonna be justin fields.
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: That's fine. I don't have a whole lot of faith
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: in the Colts.
• 23:50
  Speaker 5: Then you get the Dolphins and the Raiders if you
• 23:52
  Speaker 5: need to, probably I would assume that that's the window
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: that they might be looking at. For Mahomes, it's probably
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: for him to kind of dip his toes back in
• 23:59
  Speaker 5: the water during one of those two easier games, and
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: then you kind of you kind of get into three
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: weeks of like a little bit of back to back trouble.
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: But then after that there's smooth sailing for a little while.
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: Like it kind of there they go through pockets almost
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: perfectly on their schedule of all right, we're gonna get
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: our ass kicked for a couple of weeks, and then
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: we're gonna have a break, and then we're gonna have
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: three weeks where we're gonna get our ass kick and
• 24:22
  Speaker 5: then we're gonna have a.
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: Little bit of a break.
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: It's almost kind of a perfectly balanced schedule in favor
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: for them, and I think that with those like week three,
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: Week three or four slots, you could easily get Mahomes
• 24:35
  Speaker 5: to dip his toes back in the water of the season.
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: There, it all.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Comes down to how you feel about the Chiefs, because
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: if they are back to normal, then they're better than
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: everybody they play on the schedule. But if they're not,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: and we're looking at last year's decrepit Chiefs team that
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: could somehow be worse. If Mahomes is a one hundred
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: percent this just is not a team that you can
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: back stuck. You what kind of work If you put
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: in on Kansas City, they seem like a confusing one
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: to for cast.
• 25:01
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean you if Mahomes is health, I mean
• 25:04
  Speaker 6: that they're the road games after that first month, after
• 25:09
  Speaker 6: the bye week. It's when you want a healthy Mames.
• 25:11
  Speaker 6: But we're not gonna be easy regardless. That's Seattle at Denver,
• 25:14
  Speaker 6: at Atlanta, at Buffalo, at the Rams, at the Bengals,
• 25:18
  Speaker 6: at the Chargers. It's pretty tough. But and then you
• 25:22
  Speaker 6: have these this gimme runway. But if you if Mahomes
• 25:25
  Speaker 6: isn't healthy and you're starting Justin Fields like easily could
• 25:27
  Speaker 6: drop some of these games that you would just say like,
• 25:29
  Speaker 6: oh they're gonna win and they're win. Probability is gonna
• 25:34
  Speaker 6: drop drestfully if you end up starting Fields for a
• 25:37
  Speaker 6: month instead of I mean, he is a.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: Game against the Raiders, a gimme if Justin Fields is
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: the quarterback.
• 25:44
  Speaker 6: Neither is Miami.
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: Oh my god, you guys September.
• 25:49
  Speaker 6: So I'm I don't By the way, did you heard
• 25:53
  Speaker 6: my if Bills. Fenser, listen if you heard my hesitation
• 25:54
  Speaker 6: was saying like, oh outdoors, I haven't done my full
• 25:57
  Speaker 6: work on the stadium. I know they scienced it out
• 25:59
  Speaker 6: like a apparently there's not going to be wind impact, Evan,
• 26:03
  Speaker 6: I don't know if you've looked.
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: At it, it's a little less.
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: It's what they've been talking about, but it's still freaking Buffalo.
• 26:11
  Speaker 6: Past because that hurts.
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: That hurts, like their ability because they play there all
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: the time to be able to kick people's ass in
• 26:18
  Speaker 5: the weather.
• 26:19
  Speaker 6: But Buffalo is like if you look at what the
• 26:21
  Speaker 6: Bills have done, like Josh Allen and indoor games, like
• 26:23
  Speaker 6: on the road, their offense is like super nova. So
• 26:27
  Speaker 6: you could go vote one of you know, you could
• 26:29
  Speaker 6: argue both ways. But to the back to the Chiefs,
• 26:32
  Speaker 6: I'm not so like I'm kind of close to the number,
• 26:36
  Speaker 6: but I'm not even I'm not. I haven't gotten into pricing,
• 26:39
  Speaker 6: like how much Mahomes could miss. There's also Rashue Rice,
• 26:43
  Speaker 6: so like there's there's a lot more downside risk here
• 26:47
  Speaker 6: with the Chiefs than I think. And like it's you
• 26:50
  Speaker 6: look at this roster. I don't think Kenneth Walker moves
• 26:54
  Speaker 6: the Needle, he's a running back who's inconsistent. Yeah, he'll
• 26:57
  Speaker 6: adds a little bit more explosiveness to their run game,
• 26:59
  Speaker 6: which they've needed, but the offensive line still has questions.
• 27:01
  Speaker 6: Travis Kelce a year older, I mean, and then their defense,
• 27:06
  Speaker 6: Like on the back end, they're gonna need Delayne to
• 27:09
  Speaker 6: come in and start at corner as a rookie and
• 27:11
  Speaker 6: make an impact because this secondary it's not what it
• 27:14
  Speaker 6: was a couple of years ago. And there's only so
• 27:16
  Speaker 6: many rabbits that Steve Spegle can pull out of his hat.
• 27:20
  Speaker 6: So like, I'm worried about the defense as well. Chris
• 27:24
  Speaker 6: Jones thirty one, but thirty one thirty two now, So
• 27:26
  Speaker 6: there's some questions on this roster. And then with the
• 27:28
  Speaker 6: Mahomes injury situation, like it's under and nothing for me
• 27:32
  Speaker 6: with the Chiefs. I know that they lost like every
• 27:33
  Speaker 6: close game last year. It's Mahomes, it's Red, but it's
• 27:38
  Speaker 6: under nothing with the Chiefs for me.
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna push back on you about the Kenneth Walker
• 27:41
  Speaker 5: thing because I think the addition of him specifically helps
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: them while one Mahomes is out and injured in those
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: games like against the Raiders or the Dolphins, and Chier
• 27:51
  Speaker 5: takes some pressure off of him coming back because they
• 27:54
  Speaker 5: can just have him carry a majority of the snaps.
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: But the thing, Evan, I need you to play plug into.
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: Your AI reminder model to smash the Bengals if everyone
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: is healthy at home against the Chiefs on December thirteenth,
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: because Joe Burrow has his number, and it's at home
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: for the Bengals, that is, and it's in the middle
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: of that sandwich of like their insane schedule of like
• 28:17
  Speaker 5: the Bills and the Rams and then.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: Third straight Chiefs Los Angeles.
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: Smash circle, smash the Bengals.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: I think that that's one that I would come across
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: week of anyway, just looking at the breakdown of the
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: chief schedule. But that's definitely one if we're putting the
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: AI document together, that's definitely one that we should.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: Have on there.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: Let's go, Let's go to the Ravens. They are the
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: highest win total in the conference. It's them and the Rams.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Is the only two eleven and a half's in the NFL.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Juice to the under of course, because it's eleven and
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: a half the Ravens.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: They tried to add Mexic that didn't work out.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: They settled for Trey Hendrickson, but the defense last year
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: twentieth and EPA per play should be much improved. The
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: schedules manageable. They have the Cult, Saints, Cowboys, Titans, Falcons,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: and Browns in their first six, so they should be
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: off to a pretty good start. Fifth best strength of
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: schedule entering into the season if you were judging the
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: wind totals of their opposition should be mentioned.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: Again. They have a new head coach, no longer.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Is a John Harball, so how much of that is
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: a factor is a question? Mark Stuckey, this is your squad.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: Are you buying or selling the Ravens.
• 29:36
  Speaker 6: At eleven and a half? I think you have to sell,
• 29:38
  Speaker 6: Like I mean, generally speaking, we've talked about this in
• 29:41
  Speaker 6: last episode. It's tough to go over these higher numbers.
• 29:44
  Speaker 6: More times than not you're not going to clear them.
• 29:45
  Speaker 6: There's a lot of things that can go wrong, right, injuries,
• 29:48
  Speaker 6: just bad luck. But there's questions on this roster. I mean,
• 29:52
  Speaker 6: last year a lot went wrong and they were they
• 29:54
  Speaker 6: weren't healthy. Lamar wasn't healthy, but obviously he needs to
• 29:57
  Speaker 6: stay healthy. But Derrick Henry's not getting any younger. And
• 30:02
  Speaker 6: the offensive line is still a major question mark. You
• 30:08
  Speaker 6: bring in John Simpson, I mean, yeah, it'll be better
• 30:10
  Speaker 6: than what they're the worst guards in the NFL. Last
• 30:12
  Speaker 6: year they were horrendous. You bringing John Simpson at best,
• 30:15
  Speaker 6: you're gonna get like average player, probably better than last year.
• 30:17
  Speaker 6: But that's not gonna solve everything, especially if you had
• 30:21
  Speaker 6: Simpson and then had a center that you know, like
• 30:24
  Speaker 6: Linderbaum or someone else. If you then you can kind
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: of hide Simpson and you will be good in the
• 30:28
  Speaker 6: run game. But they don't have a right now there's
• 30:30
  Speaker 6: like a four way competition for center. Center kind of
• 30:32
  Speaker 6: important the offensive line. Offensive line are only as good
• 30:35
  Speaker 6: as your week link, Like it's gonna be Pinter who win.
• 30:39
  Speaker 6: These are all backups, Like they need someone to emerge
• 30:41
  Speaker 6: at center, because you're also gonna have probably a rookie
• 30:44
  Speaker 6: left guard and both by the way, Simpson and this
• 30:47
  Speaker 6: and yu Wanta are both left guard, so this interior
• 30:51
  Speaker 6: and then if your tackles need to stay out because
• 30:53
  Speaker 6: they don't have any depth to tackle. So offensive line
• 30:55
  Speaker 6: again major question mark. Defense is fascinating because well, what's
• 31:01
  Speaker 6: matabuque status defense night and day with him or without him?
• 31:04
  Speaker 6: Out is he going to be healthy because there's still
• 31:07
  Speaker 6: questions on the back end, right, like Marlon Humphreys, he's
• 31:10
  Speaker 6: passed his prime, gonna be thirty that that's pretty clear.
• 31:13
  Speaker 6: A Woozi a same age like past an injury prone.
• 31:18
  Speaker 6: Like linebacker Rokwon Smith, he's out of his prime age.
• 31:21
  Speaker 6: They don't really have a reliable second linebacker. So there's
• 31:24
  Speaker 6: there's questions on this defense. The fascinating question that you
• 31:28
  Speaker 6: brought up will be how much of a positive impact
• 31:33
  Speaker 6: does Minter have? Number one, just on, hey, we needed
• 31:35
  Speaker 6: a new voice. I think it like for Harball and
• 31:38
  Speaker 6: the Ravens, and think it made sense that they'd moved on.
• 31:40
  Speaker 6: But how much of an impact does he have on
• 31:42
  Speaker 6: the defense schematically? And on the other side of that,
• 31:48
  Speaker 6: how much does the does the Chargers defense suffer without Mint?
• 31:53
  Speaker 6: Because if you look at the Chargers and I won't
• 31:56
  Speaker 6: transition there yet, but if you look at the Chargers'
• 31:57
  Speaker 6: defense personnel wise, it wasn't like I would blow you off.
• 32:01
  Speaker 6: It wouldn't blow you off the you know, blow you
• 32:04
  Speaker 6: off the page of like talent, like, oh my gosh,
• 32:06
  Speaker 6: look at this depth chart. A lot of that was
• 32:08
  Speaker 6: scheme and what Minter did how much would drop off?
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: Is there?
• 32:11
  Speaker 6: So there's some connections with the Charters and Ravens there,
• 32:16
  Speaker 6: But at eleven and a half, with all the questions
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: that the Ravens have, it's under or nothing.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: And the quarterback once again missing some off season workouts.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson missus OTAs for the Ravens.
• 32:32
  Speaker 6: Who knows eleven and a half that you can? We
• 32:35
  Speaker 6: can just repeat it for those who missed the show.
• 32:36
  Speaker 6: Like the historical stats of going under on wind totals
• 32:41
  Speaker 6: at above eleven.
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I could look it up right now. I mean,
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: the only thing I was even considering. When it comes
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: to the Ravens, it looks like their first nine weeks
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: versus second nine weeks pretty drastic. They have a minus
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: thirteen rest differential first nine plus ten in the second nine,
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: which is that as a twenty three difference is like,
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: pretty ridiculous when it comes to schedules, which could impact
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: just a few things going forward. When you look at
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: the eleven win totals and obviously the highest of the highest,
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: I mean those tend to actually do a little bit better.
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: But I'm let me let me just try to find them.
• 33:17
  Speaker 6: Yeah, while you're finding that to mention this schedule, like
• 33:19
  Speaker 6: you said, there's all I'm not sure if I go
• 33:22
  Speaker 6: under eleven and a half. I still have a lot
• 33:25
  Speaker 6: of work to do with with the Ravens, and I
• 33:27
  Speaker 6: want to see how this offensive line chacks out. I
• 33:28
  Speaker 6: project them at eleven right on the dot right now.
• 33:32
  Speaker 6: But like they could easily start six and h as
• 33:35
  Speaker 6: you mentioned their schedule. But you get the Colts week one.
• 33:37
  Speaker 6: Who's the quarterback for the Colts?
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: You know?
• 33:40
  Speaker 6: Then you have the Saints, the Cowboys, the Titans, the Falcons.
• 33:45
  Speaker 6: What's their quarterback situation look like? The Browns? What's their
• 33:48
  Speaker 6: quarterback situation look like?
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: Like?
• 33:50
  Speaker 6: That is a very very easy first six where you
• 33:55
  Speaker 6: could jump out to a six and a start before
• 33:57
  Speaker 6: you're hosting Sincy and going to Buffalo. So starting out
• 34:02
  Speaker 6: six and oh might get a little dicey for an
• 34:05
  Speaker 6: under eleven and a half, and it's like a nice
• 34:06
  Speaker 6: runway for mintor you know, to implement some new things
• 34:10
  Speaker 6: with his defense, especially with the quarterback situations you're facing,
• 34:13
  Speaker 6: and also for this offensive line to come together. So
• 34:16
  Speaker 6: that schedule might end up that early schedule might end
• 34:19
  Speaker 6: up being the difference of them going under or over
• 34:22
  Speaker 6: but I still as a right now lean under eleven
• 34:24
  Speaker 6: and a half.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: I don't think any of that.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think any of that deterred Kendra from wanting
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: to take the Bengals to win the AFC North plus
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: two ten right now on draft Kings, I don't mind now.
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: I am all over the Bengals this year. You know
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: this to be true. Although I don't hate the Raven schedule.
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: I'm looking at it and there's like a four week
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: stretch of oh crap, that sucks, But that's kind.
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: Of it for them.
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: Like I don't know why people I think that they
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: have one of the easier schedules for a good team.
• 34:53
  Speaker 5: And shout out my boy tes Walker being moved up
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: on the depth chart projected to be a starter.
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: WHI watch out for tes Walker.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: The fifth easiest schedule in the NFL. Evan, did you
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: find anything on the eleven and a half's?
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's drastic so recently in history, if you go
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: back to nineteen ninety, basically there's been a better value
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: on eleven or higher. But if you look recently, it's crazy.
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: Since twenty twenty you have eighteen teams, we've had a
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: win toll eleven or more, they're five and thirteen to
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: the over. So thirteen and five to the under. The
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: only five teams to go over Chiefs in twenty four,
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: Niners in twenty three, Bills in twenty two, Bucks in
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: twenty one, Chiefs in twenty eighteen teams. So obviously it's
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: come back around a little bit, and that bleeds a
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: little bit into the sixteen game schedule, but that since.
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: COVID that Bucks team you said twenty twenty.
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: Twenty one thirteen games.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: So essentially if you have Mahomes, Allen or Brady, then
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: you're liable to still hit the over.
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: That's okay, Now, that's Rams and Ravens right now.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and they have they've got some pretty good quarterbacks
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: too with Lamar Jackson.
• 36:08
  Speaker 6: That you know, my question was going to be, by
• 36:10
  Speaker 6: the way, which is which might transition as to a team?
• 36:13
  Speaker 6: I want to bring up My question for the day
• 36:16
  Speaker 6: was going to be NFL related, and I want just
• 36:19
  Speaker 6: your gut reaction if you removed all the quarterbacks and
• 36:24
  Speaker 6: put them into a bucket, and that you were you
• 36:28
  Speaker 6: were running a team and you were just going to
• 36:30
  Speaker 6: get assigned a random quarterback. So but you could choose
• 36:34
  Speaker 6: any roster you wanted. Who do you think? So we're
• 36:37
  Speaker 6: removing the quarterbacks from the discussion. Who's roster do you
• 36:42
  Speaker 6: want going into next year? Not not about like the
• 36:47
  Speaker 6: next five years, three years, just for next year. Your
• 36:50
  Speaker 6: goal is to win a super Bowl, but you're gonna
• 36:51
  Speaker 6: get assigned a random quarterback. So we're removing the quarterbacks.
• 36:54
  Speaker 6: Who's roster do you think? Who would you take?
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: And this.
• 36:59
  Speaker 6: Is this is the the entire NFL tire NFL.
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: Honestly, probably Baltimore. The Lions were my number two, but
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: probably probably the Ravens.
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: I would consider the Chargers.
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: I would I would consider the Eagles, the Lions, and
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: the Ravens.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: The Eagles are the are the team that I keep
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: gravitating towards.
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: But they're not going to have a J and without AJ.
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: That's what moves that needle for me, because I do
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: feel like HERT holds them back at points.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: Was on the Philadelphia Eagles. Nobody but that.
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: No one has said the Rams or Seahawks.
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: The Rams are just old Sea hund I.
• 37:36
  Speaker 6: Mean I could see, but I could see the Rams
• 37:37
  Speaker 6: now they've upgraded their secondary. The Rams are definitely in discussion.
• 37:41
  Speaker 6: Underrated answer I don't think anyone would would throw this out,
• 37:44
  Speaker 6: but I'm going to throw it out as possibility. Where
• 37:48
  Speaker 6: where do the Texans fall in this?
• 37:50
  Speaker 5: Do you know their defense BECAUSEJ Stroud blows their offensive
• 37:54
  Speaker 5: line I think should be improved.
• 37:57
  Speaker 6: You assume they're going to be healthier and they built
• 37:59
  Speaker 6: depth that they're pass catching, they have a better running dog.
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: You would also get the head coach, right, so like
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: you'd be handed to Miko.
• 38:06
  Speaker 6: Yeah that's true, but you know that you're gonna get
• 38:09
  Speaker 6: the defense with Demiko.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: But I mean, the.
• 38:11
  Speaker 5: Texans have the best defense in the league in my opinion,
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: but CJ.
• 38:16
  Speaker 6: Their offensehould be improved, like their offensive line won't will
• 38:19
  Speaker 6: be better than last year. I Rutledge can play center.
• 38:23
  Speaker 6: That will be pretty big with their offensive line is
• 38:26
  Speaker 6: definitely improved, and then their pass catchers have been so
• 38:29
  Speaker 6: banged up, like if they can just stay healthy, but
• 38:30
  Speaker 6: they they built some down.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: I don't like.
• 38:33
  Speaker 6: Yeah, he's apparently working out. I just don't know if
• 38:37
  Speaker 6: he like. I'm root for him. It's one of my
• 38:39
  Speaker 6: favorite players in college, one of my fair players in NFL.
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: But he like Tour.
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: I just don't.
• 38:43
  Speaker 6: I don't. I'm not a doctor. I don't he like
• 38:45
  Speaker 6: tour every single possible ligament and shredded as nakly, I don't.
• 38:49
  Speaker 6: I don't know what you can expect from him, but uh,
• 38:51
  Speaker 6: they definitely miss it, like he had great chemistry with Stroud.
• 38:56
  Speaker 6: So but you there's a some upside there with Dell.
• 39:00
  Speaker 6: Who knows what you're gonna get. But yeah, the Texans
• 39:04
  Speaker 6: I think are closer than that conversation. I think many
• 39:07
  Speaker 6: people might think.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: You mentioned the Chargers a couple of times. Let's talk
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: about them.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: They were in totals at nine and a half, A
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: couple of teams in the AFC West at nine and
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: a half. The Denver Broncos as well, who are a
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: team that, despite making it to the AFC Title Game
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: and may have gone to the Super Bowl if their
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: quarterback was healthy, seem to be a team that not
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of folks are focused on. What is it
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: stucky that you like about the LA Chargers going into
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: this year? It feels like they're a team every year
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: that's the Darling pick for US analysts, and they often
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: leave us wanting more.
• 39:40
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, you got to you got to start.
• 39:42
  Speaker 6: I mean I hate doing this with quarterbacks. Of small
• 39:44
  Speaker 6: sample size, but you have to ask questions about Herbert
• 39:46
  Speaker 6: and like these big games naturally have to do that.
• 39:48
  Speaker 6: But as far as going into this year, the biggest
• 39:52
  Speaker 6: I've said all last year, like it's all about next
• 39:54
  Speaker 6: year with the Chargers, like Harball's continuing to build his
• 39:57
  Speaker 6: team and then you're gonna get your all pro ca
• 40:00
  Speaker 6: tackles back, and their offensive line just fell apart without them.
• 40:03
  Speaker 6: Now there's still questions in the interior, right like Cole
• 40:07
  Speaker 6: Strange Beaddish slaughter, like is that going to be your
• 40:11
  Speaker 6: starting three or maybe Pennings in there? It's not great,
• 40:14
  Speaker 6: but there their interior was a disaster last year. People
• 40:17
  Speaker 6: like like their interier offensive line was really bad and
• 40:19
  Speaker 6: their tackle situation was dire because of the injuries, you
• 40:22
  Speaker 6: get the two mainstays back of tackle, their interier is
• 40:25
  Speaker 6: not gonna be any worse, then this offense should start
• 40:29
  Speaker 6: to look a lot more functional on a down to
• 40:31
  Speaker 6: down basis. My biggest question with the Chargers is their defense,
• 40:36
  Speaker 6: and I mentioned it with Minter. I'm going to spend
• 40:39
  Speaker 6: a lot of time on figuring out like the what
• 40:42
  Speaker 6: is the potential drop off? Cause I mentioned like you
• 40:43
  Speaker 6: look at their personnel, you're not like in the Derwin
• 40:47
  Speaker 6: James is a stud, but like look at you're not like,
• 40:50
  Speaker 6: oh my god, look at all this town in all
• 40:51
  Speaker 6: these different positions. Schematically, they were dialed in. Now they
• 40:55
  Speaker 6: made a fascinating hire to run their defense in Chris O'Leary,
• 40:59
  Speaker 6: who ran he turned Western Michigan's defense around last year.
• 41:02
  Speaker 6: Now it's in the MAC but he also was their
• 41:05
  Speaker 6: safeties coach two years ago. With the Chargers under Mintor,
• 41:10
  Speaker 6: so like, is there not going to be how much
• 41:11
  Speaker 6: of that drop off without Mintors they're going to be?
• 41:14
  Speaker 6: I don't know, but that's fascinating because I think a
• 41:17
  Speaker 6: lot of what the Chargers their success on defense was
• 41:21
  Speaker 6: you have to credit to Minter. So there's like an
• 41:24
  Speaker 6: indirect mentor higher now there what happens to their defense,
• 41:28
  Speaker 6: because I do think their offense should be much better
• 41:29
  Speaker 6: because they're going to have a competent offensive line, which
• 41:32
  Speaker 6: they just didn't have, Like they just didn't have a
• 41:33
  Speaker 6: functioning offensive line in most weeks, Like it was just
• 41:37
  Speaker 6: a complete the snap the balls, like one of those
• 41:40
  Speaker 6: means and then everyone just tackles Herbert. So they're gonna
• 41:43
  Speaker 6: get a big bump from having those tackles back, But
• 41:46
  Speaker 6: how much does the defense suffer without mintor.
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: My thing with them is what you said when you
• 41:53
  Speaker 5: said when people will say watch out for the Chargers
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: next year, That's what I kind of. I feel like
• 41:59
  Speaker 5: that's the same thing every year, and I think we're
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: gonna be saying it again this year. It's like, oh,
• 42:02
  Speaker 5: we'll watch out for the Chargers next year, and we're
• 42:04
  Speaker 5: gonna make excuses for them, but they have a cupcake
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: schedule this year. My concern would be Lad McConkie because
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: he really went all.
• 42:14
  Speaker 6: Kendrick bringing up Ladd McConkie in no seriously though touchdown
• 42:20
  Speaker 6: Week one.
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: I'm so still bitter about it. But Okay, my question
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: was gonna be we we have to talk about the
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: Jags at some point. Bigger fall off at the for
• 42:30
  Speaker 5: all of last season BTJ or Lad McConkie. I know
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: BTJ had offensive Rookie of the Year stuff, but BTJ
• 42:37
  Speaker 5: at least packed it back on towards the end of
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: the season.
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: Last year, McConkie fell off for the entirety of it.
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: He just looked like he lost his step almost.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was.
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: It was crazy. I don't know I've like what a
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: fall from Grace.
• 42:52
  Speaker 6: I think their offense couldn't function, like their offensive line
• 42:57
  Speaker 6: was in shambles. So we'll see what what that whole
• 43:01
  Speaker 6: operation looks like with them with healthy, had more catches,
• 43:05
  Speaker 6: more continuity. Like, yeah, I'm more focused on the defense.
• 43:09
  Speaker 6: I think the offense will be fine. But like the
• 43:11
  Speaker 6: questions is if the Chargers do get to the postseason.
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: No shot, negative clutch team, never happening.
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: Let's go to the postseason first.
• 43:20
  Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, tricky. I mean, Bernie, you mentioned the win totals,
• 43:24
  Speaker 6: and like, I do think the Raiders should be The
• 43:28
  Speaker 6: Raiders are gonna be great this year. We don't know
• 43:30
  Speaker 6: what we're gonna get with Windows or when he's gonna start,
• 43:32
  Speaker 6: but the Raiders should be more competent than they were
• 43:35
  Speaker 6: last year. Like, just get a healthy offensive line together, right,
• 43:38
  Speaker 6: you got you upgrade at center, healthy Colton Miller. Like
• 43:42
  Speaker 6: talk about a dysfunctional offensive line like the the Broncos
• 43:46
  Speaker 6: their defense. By the way, I got to face these
• 43:48
  Speaker 6: offensive lines that were just in complete shambles. Uh four times,
• 43:52
  Speaker 6: and the Chiefs offensive line wasn't like they were in
• 43:54
  Speaker 6: great shape. But their offensive line should be better.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: The Raiders.
• 43:58
  Speaker 6: Their quarterback situation should be better, can be worse than Gino,
• 44:00
  Speaker 6: and I like some of the things they did in
• 44:01
  Speaker 6: the offseason, but so they should be a little bit
• 44:05
  Speaker 6: more feisty so that the division all their win totals
• 44:08
  Speaker 6: are not far away, and it's the margins aren't are
• 44:11
  Speaker 6: very thin, and who's going to separate themselves between the Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos.
• 44:15
  Speaker 6: Probably come down to injuries, close game luck and things.
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: Like that takes the Chargers. Oh sorry, Brennan, no go
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: ahead of it. No. I just think there's another angle
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: in the Chargers as well, which is like their schedule
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: in terms of rest is one of the more brutal
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: things we've ever seen ever.
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: Ever.
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: They're minus twenty four in net rest. They face four
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: teams off of a bye. They've got four three plus
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: time zone trips like out East. They go to Buffalo,
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: to Baltimore, to Tampa Bay and to Miami, which for
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: a Charger team is like a bit of a brutal
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: thing going on. You look back since two thousand and two,
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: only one team at a worse net rest at minus
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: twenty five, Like minus twenty four is astounding to have
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: to go through for the Chargers. When you look at
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: first nine weeks, they face an average team of about
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: sixty to one, second nine weeks eighty six to one.
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: So getting through that early schedule and again you open
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: up at home those first two games. But Buffalo, Seattle, Denver,
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: Kansas City Rams, Texans Ravens is pretty brutal.
• 45:17
  Speaker 6: Yeah, how about how about this, Evan, I'll argue you
• 45:20
  Speaker 6: open up against Arizona and Vegas at home, should start
• 45:23
  Speaker 6: too and out. Yeah, you could argue you then are
• 45:28
  Speaker 6: playing five straight road games. Well I should say, yeah,
• 45:35
  Speaker 6: five at Buffalo, at Seattle home against Denver. I mean,
• 45:41
  Speaker 6: is that more of a Denver home game? At Kansas
• 45:42
  Speaker 6: City at the Rams? And oh, by the way, that's
• 45:45
  Speaker 6: before Houston and Baltimore. Then you get a bit of
• 45:48
  Speaker 6: a reprieve. But crazy, that's a brutal stretch there after
• 45:52
  Speaker 6: what they should start too. And now though.
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: Hopefully man the LA Chargers to miss the playoffs, that
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: sounds like an interesting bet.
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: Gave it out last week. I literally gave it out
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: last week. Don't even start with me. I gave it
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: out twice.
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: It's a show bet, I guess, yes exactly.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: I'm all. I'm saying is I'm with you Middleton, I'm
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: with you.
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: You forgot you don't even listen to Gifford? Can we
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: get that on the app? Please?
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: I need to start.
• 46:21
  Speaker 6: The thing is that they have they will be. They're
• 46:25
  Speaker 6: directly impacted by how healthy Nicks and the homes are
• 46:29
  Speaker 6: fair as a high correlation with the division.
• 46:34
  Speaker 5: So justin Herbert's too busy in music videos, I don't
• 46:37
  Speaker 5: care about those two.
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: You also should wait right like I mean at two
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: and zero the odds and then to miss the playoffs,
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: will be pretty sure.
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: That was Kendro.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: This is why we have the master key sheet from
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams because this is this is part of it.
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: You don't bet it now, it's a great bet after week.
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: Can we get can we get clawed?
• 46:56
  Speaker 5: Or whatever?
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: We're just going to start every show do in the
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: air with notifications like that's our Tuesday episode.
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: Like whatever, ratio and there these are Kender's previous bets.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: Please remember them for future. This is why I have
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: a notepad.
• 47:09
  Speaker 5: By the way, we need literally because we need to
• 47:11
  Speaker 5: be reminded what was our aj Brownson that we were
• 47:14
  Speaker 5: going to do. There was something that we needed to
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: be reminded about when.
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: He got created.
• 47:19
  Speaker 5: Oh, the Seattle game, the Seattle game, because it's going
• 47:21
  Speaker 5: to go from three and a half to two and
• 47:22
  Speaker 5: a half, we need the AI model exactly.
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: More of the favorites coming up.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: We're going to be planting our flag in a moment,
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: bets that will be most assuredly placed on the best
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: sports book in the land.
• 47:33
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  Speaker 7: yours all right.
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: Time to plant the flag.
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: AFC win totals will go around the horn our odds
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: as always presented by DraftKings.
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: The Crown is yours.
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: Mind the flag and it set up.
• 48:39
  Speaker 6: I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: Okay, you're really.
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: Planning your flag in that thick dendra. I'm gonna write
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: this one down.
• 48:46
  Speaker 5: Go ahead, it's already and they're both in the action app.
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: You're good to go. They're already logged. They're already there.
• 48:52
  Speaker 5: Bangles over nine and a half or Brown's over six
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: and a half if we're doing a parlay here, but
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: those are both already logged for.
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: Me, love them both.
• 49:01
  Speaker 5: I think the Bengals have a very favorable schedule, rather
• 49:03
  Speaker 5: favorable division, and they just cannot keep getting unlucky year
• 49:08
  Speaker 5: after year after year. I mean, I guess they could.
• 49:10
  Speaker 5: They've been unlucky since like the dawn of time. However,
• 49:14
  Speaker 5: faith in them and then the Browns. Easy schedule. I'm
• 49:19
  Speaker 5: gonna go Browns. I'm gonna go Browns. Over six and
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: a half.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: We are getting in they you are to pick one
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: of your favorites.
• 49:28
  Speaker 5: Okay, well you had two, so I added to I
• 49:31
  Speaker 5: didn't know if we were making this like a Parley
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: vote while we do.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: During the two I put two in there just so
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: that you know, if somebody else took one, I would
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: just kindly pivot as the host.
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: I was just a sheep with my blindfold on.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: Okay, which one do you want? Bengals are Browns?
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: Browns?
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: Brownies for two anyway, very close color, same division. Just
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: take them both.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: Over six and a half wins for the Browns.
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: Evan woul you Okay. So five of the seven win
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: totals below seven all live in the afcity Tennessee, Cleveland, Jets, Raiders, Dolphins.
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: The interesting fact among those five teams is that all
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: five are actually seventeenth or easier in opponent Super Bowl
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: futures for the first nine weeks, which is actually nice, right,
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: low win total, easier starts, and then it gets a
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: little bit harder for all of them. What I like
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: about Tennessee, which is my pick is harder later, easier earlier,
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: which I think is some of their advantage. First nine
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: weeks eighty six to one on average face second nine
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: weeks fifty one to one. But the thing on those
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: second nine weeks, they have a plus five rest differential.
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: So I like that about Tennessee brand new regime. You've
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: made an offensive addition in the draft. They also plus
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: six in net rest throughout the season, which I like.
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: The other four teams on that list with low win
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: totals are zero or worse in net rest, so Titans
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: also have that advantage. So I'm gonna go with Tennessee over.
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: I think it's about six and a half. You can
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: find some really heavy five and a half's as well, But.
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: Are you a cam Ward Truther.
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: I just think he's showed some signs last year. I
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: like the defense better. I think the two New York
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: guys working together as one brain, since I think both
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: of them might have about like half a brain to
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: three quarters of a brain, is something worth noting in
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: this one. Oh that that as well, I just see
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: some I see some elevation there, and Tennessee's just been
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: a team that we've always like. We'll bet against them,
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: they never cover. I just think there's some motivation and
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: some movement there that I.
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: Feel like that's a tide that's gonna change. Here, go ahead, Kendra,
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: Can I.
• 51:36
  Speaker 5: Just mention that it is still and always will be
• 51:38
  Speaker 5: insane to me that cam Ward went to the NFL
• 51:42
  Speaker 5: before Carson Beck, and Carson Beck is like nine thousand
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: years old and they went from the same school.
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: That's that just really every time I think about Carson
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: Beck's old ass, I'm like, how did cam Ward? I
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: don't understand.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Hey, growth is not linear. It took me eight years
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: to get a bachelor's degree. Okay, so I think it
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: easy on the guy. Stuck Yota about you.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: Bold? So things are going great at at forty Uh,
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: Stuckyota about you?
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 52:06
  Speaker 6: To Evan's point, By the way, the Titans, I'd like
• 52:08
  Speaker 6: a little bit more as long as I'm gett assurance
• 52:10
  Speaker 6: that Gus Bradley's not going to make any decisions. I
• 52:12
  Speaker 6: know that he's not the play, but uh, I'll play
• 52:16
  Speaker 6: my flag on Chiefs under I just think that there's
• 52:20
  Speaker 6: some downside with the Mahomes injury, and they might lose
• 52:22
  Speaker 6: some what you would think are winnable games. Early if
• 52:24
  Speaker 6: he's not fully healthy. And there's lots of questions on
• 52:27
  Speaker 6: this roster from receiver to aging positions, that of guys
• 52:33
  Speaker 6: that they've relied on in the past, and then the
• 52:34
  Speaker 6: secondary questions all over offensive line still some question mark,
• 52:38
  Speaker 6: So tough division. I think Raiders will be feist here
• 52:42
  Speaker 6: and uh yeah, let's go Chiefs under and Brandon. I
• 52:47
  Speaker 6: will say a lot of work there because this is
• 52:49
  Speaker 6: the hardest This is the hardest team for me to
• 52:52
  Speaker 6: rate right now. It's the Dolphins. My biggest numbers edge
• 52:56
  Speaker 6: is on the Dolphins. Over on that edge, I will
• 53:03
  Speaker 6: not play my flag on that.
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: You too, We're in lockstep, man, this is great.
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: You want to change your mind if the Chiefs do
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: wind up getting digs?
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: No, okay, the Dolphins can.
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: I just remind the people out there, this might be
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: the worst wide receiving room in the history of the
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: NFL for the Miami Dolphins. Jalen Tolbert to to at Well,
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: Malik Washington. That's their starting three.
• 53:34
  Speaker 6: It's not great, but I mean, what is their win
• 53:36
  Speaker 6: total to get the four and a half?
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying that they I could very well see
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: them think about it like this, Okay, let me just
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: let me just soft sell you on how we get
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: to an over.
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: They play the Raiders in Week one. That's a coin toss,
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: so they could very well.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: Win that game. The Raiders aren't going to be good either.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: They will likely get a win against the Jets. Now
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: we're at two.
• 54:00
  Speaker 6: In field week three with the Chiefs, Hey, that could
• 54:02
  Speaker 6: be there.
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: You go, all right, let's add that one. We got three.
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: I think they'll get a surprise win against either the
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: Patriots or the Bills. They're not gonna get swept by both.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: That's the NFL. It's in division. The ship happens.
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: I'll be honest, it's like, go down that list. That's
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: there's nothing really easy.
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: It was easy. I just said they could that's all.
• 54:25
  Speaker 5: Yeah, their pants around their ankles, those other things that
• 54:29
  Speaker 5: could happen, like the Bills or Patriots could be clinched
• 54:31
  Speaker 5: right like in their last games.
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: And then there's another factor here. Malik Willis could be decent.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: You know, let's not forget.
• 54:39
  Speaker 6: Yeah, but I mean, like I mentioned, is he throwing
• 54:42
  Speaker 6: on Miami.
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: Is gonna win that game in Green Bay? Right? That
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: has to happen.
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's made.
• 54:51
  Speaker 6: It'll be a typical pack as well.
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: Sh teams win all the time in the NFL.
• 54:56
  Speaker 6: That's what I'm saying, Like I generally lean overs on
• 54:58
  Speaker 6: these very very I do wish they had more home
• 55:01
  Speaker 6: games early right with that humidity. Uh, they are on
• 55:05
  Speaker 6: the road three of their first four.
• 55:06
  Speaker 4: The Patriots win in Miami.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: See there you go already chalked up another dub for
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins. Good Jeff Benja. I think I have one
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: to plant my flag on that no one is going
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: to give me grief about, which is a surprise. I'm
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: gonna go with the Steelers under eight and a half wins. Hey, Tomlin,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: do do just.
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: Rocked me so hard? Right there?
• 55:29
  Speaker 5: He had the Steelers and the Jags in his notes
• 55:32
  Speaker 5: and he drops the Nobody's gonna be mad and then
• 55:35
  Speaker 5: drops the Steelers on a Jags podcast or even joking.
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: What is the fuckery?
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: I will say there are only two win total bets
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: that I have that I have placed, and they are
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: on the Jags over nine and a half wins at
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: plus one ten and the Steelers under eight and a
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: half at minus one forty five. The one if you said,
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: gun to your head, you can only hold one of
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: these bets through this season. For me, it's the Steelers
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: no more Mike Tomlin. I think Mike McCarthy is a
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: major downgrade. You give Mike McCarthy an average roster, he's
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: gonna do average things with it.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: Five years cookie up in here.
• 56:15
  Speaker 6: Steelers, Yeah, I mean, like I don't hate it, but
• 56:19
  Speaker 6: it's gonna come down to their offensive Like, you know,
• 56:23
  Speaker 6: we know who Rogers is at this point, and he's
• 56:25
  Speaker 6: now another year older. He can't two years old. He
• 56:29
  Speaker 6: was a game under pressure. So this offensive line, which
• 56:32
  Speaker 6: they've invested in, but is now gonna be revamped. Like
• 56:35
  Speaker 6: you just look at what they're because you look what
• 56:36
  Speaker 6: they're doing in the OTAs they had, they've moved the
• 56:39
  Speaker 6: whole right side to the left side. Uh, is mad
• 56:42
  Speaker 6: Max gonna be ready because if there's a if there's pressure,
• 56:44
  Speaker 6: Rogers's toast, I mean, and he just wants to get
• 56:47
  Speaker 6: the ball ot so quick. But they've upgraded a receiver.
• 56:49
  Speaker 6: I do like the moves on, like their defense as talent.
• 56:51
  Speaker 6: I'm a big Patrick Graham guy. I think their defense
• 56:53
  Speaker 6: could be sneaky. Their special team should be good, which
• 56:55
  Speaker 6: worries me a bit. Uh And my last two notes
• 56:59
  Speaker 6: or the most obvious aggression candidates for unders and they're
• 57:02
  Speaker 6: obviously everyone knows they are the Patriots, right, they got
• 57:05
  Speaker 6: every break last year, well, the Broncos, let's say three
• 57:08
  Speaker 6: Broncos one possession game luck, the Patriots, I mean every luck,
• 57:12
  Speaker 6: fourth downs, fumbles, you name it, everyone getting hurt, their schedule.
• 57:17
  Speaker 6: And then the Jags can their defense that's not gonna
• 57:20
  Speaker 6: have Lloyd now can they rely on. It's so much
• 57:24
  Speaker 6: takeaway luck last year and if their defense doesn't get that,
• 57:30
  Speaker 6: it could look ugly and you might struggle to get
• 57:32
  Speaker 6: the ten wins. But those are my last thoughts in SC.
• 57:34
  Speaker 6: We'll have many. I could ramble for hours.
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: I'll stop. I think the Patriots are the biggest candidate
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: to probably talk about on a later podcast, just because
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: of like the differences between how Ezia was last year
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: and it's not necessarily really hard this year. It's just
• 57:49
  Speaker 3: like more about average and the increases year over year,
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: like are the largest in the NFL when you talk
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: about like win percentage when total, all these different things
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: are gonna have to go through, which they didn't last year.
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: Many many more thoughts.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: Good thing we have about four months until the season starts.
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: Those are our plant the flag bets on the AFC.
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: A quick recap for you. Kendra is on the Browns
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: over six and a half wins, Evan is on the
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: Titans over six and a half wins, I'm on the
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: Steelers under eight and a half wins, and Stucky is
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: on the under for the Kansas City Chiefs.
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: At ten and a half.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: producers David Payne and Gifford gold stat Town Evan Abrams.
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: Make sure you go and check out that ten and
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: a half win total primer that's at actionnetwork dot com
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: right now. The favorites, some of the favorites We'll be
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: back next week here on the Action Network YouTube page
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: and wherever you download them. Kendra, we bid you a
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: fond farewell. We will be thinking of you, best of luck,
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: save ye well, We'll see you next time. Presented by
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: Drift Crowd as yours don't that Kendra.
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 59:15
  Speaker 6: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 59:19
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• 59:21
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