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The Favorites - AFC + NFC South Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: The Favorite podcast is presented by FanDuel sports Book. Football
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Speaker 1: Anna one eight seven seven Hope and Why or text
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Speaker 1: Hope and Why four seven three six nine in New York, Tennessee.
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Speaker 1: Redline is one eight eight nine one eight hundred five
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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
1:26
Speaker 1: to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:30
Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
1:35
Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode, my partner,
1:40
Speaker 1: my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional
1:45
Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter Simon. We got a lot of stuff
1:50
Speaker 1: to get to, uh, including a very special segment from
1:56
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. But before we do that, I do I
2:00
Speaker 1: want to talk to you because we forgot to talk
2:03
Speaker 1: about this on Tuesday. Uh, you had a bunch of
2:07
Speaker 1: wise guys that you were hanging out with this past
2:09
Speaker 1: weekend at the sports books for the beginning of preseason essentially,
2:14
Speaker 1: and give me some of the insights some of what
2:17
Speaker 1: you guys were talking about. What were you guys seeing
2:19
Speaker 1: that made everyone excited? Well, it was a fun weekend.
2:22
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie. We had um I want to say,
2:25
Speaker 1: like eleven two, I don't know twelve of my own
2:29
Speaker 1: clients came up to oceans. It's a casino down Atlantic City.
2:32
Speaker 1: That's pretty posh and a bunch of pros. I know.
2:36
Speaker 1: You know, a couple of guys came down from Canada,
2:38
Speaker 1: a couple of guys came from Maryland. We had two
2:40
Speaker 1: guys up from Florida. You know, just came up for
2:42
Speaker 1: the first opening week of football. Um, it's just it's
2:47
Speaker 1: kind of a little bit of like a ritual where
2:49
Speaker 1: you just get together the guys, you get the juices flowing,
2:51
Speaker 1: and we always joke we try to get the scumbag
2:53
Speaker 1: bet out of the way, so you know, we're in
2:56
Speaker 1: a business of losing morals. My scumbag better the year
2:59
Speaker 1: was I took Browns first half the Shawn Watson's first start. Uh,
3:03
Speaker 1: I believe they were down thirteen nothing. DeShawn Watson was
3:05
Speaker 1: one of seven for six yards passing. They yanke him
3:08
Speaker 1: out of the game. There's four minutes ago, they drive
3:10
Speaker 1: down the field, score touchdown. Jaguars turned around, throw a
3:13
Speaker 1: pick six. They cover the first half spread fourteen thirteen.
3:16
Speaker 1: So I won my first scumbag better of the summer
3:19
Speaker 1: of DeShawn Watson. So it's just fun. It's literally it
3:23
Speaker 1: feels like not that you're in a comb. I don't
3:26
Speaker 1: wanna put that depressing, but like again, I want a
3:28
Speaker 1: bunch of money. The NBA Finals wasn't that much fun.
3:31
Speaker 1: I want a couple of schleck like a couple of
3:33
Speaker 1: bucks here on the Ravens whenever. That was Thursday night.
3:36
Speaker 1: I was going crazy. Just felt so good to be
3:37
Speaker 1: back into our favorite game of football. Uh. Two things one,
3:43
Speaker 1: Uh not only did you back door cover that Browns,
3:46
Speaker 1: but it was like with thirty seconds left and the
3:49
Speaker 1: ball was in the Jaguars receivers hands and he had
3:54
Speaker 1: it ripped away by the Browns defensive back number one.
3:57
Speaker 1: Number two. I believe the word you're looking for is
4:01
Speaker 1: you want a couple of shekels. I don't even know
4:06
Speaker 1: the saying is. It's a Jewish saying, isn't. I was Yiddish.
4:09
Speaker 1: It's the Yiddish phrase for money. Um as your as
4:14
Speaker 1: yours a d as your entry into Jewish culture. I'm
4:20
Speaker 1: always here for you, buddy, You're the man. You're the
4:23
Speaker 1: man we were supposed to have. Um My nemesis Matthew Freedman,
4:31
Speaker 1: former Action Network analysts now at Fantasy Pros, on the
4:36
Speaker 1: podcast as a guest. He's a great guest We love
4:39
Speaker 1: having him come on, even though he uh left us
4:43
Speaker 1: in despair about a year and a half ago. Matt Mitchell,
4:49
Speaker 1: can you tell us what happened? I can. We invited
4:53
Speaker 1: him to come on the show to be one of
4:55
Speaker 1: our hallowed guests here in the Chambers of the Favorites,
4:59
Speaker 1: and he had to decline, sending me this note which
5:03
Speaker 1: I will read now. Hey, guys, I need to pass
5:12
Speaker 1: on the Monday show. My wife and I have gotten
5:15
Speaker 1: hooked up with the soup nazy of dog rumors, and
5:19
Speaker 1: our dog has an appointment on Tuesday afternoon. If you're
5:23
Speaker 1: not available to pick up your dog within fifteen minutes
5:26
Speaker 1: of getting the message that your dog is ready, apparently
5:30
Speaker 1: the groomer gets pissed and will remove the dog from
5:34
Speaker 1: the client roster. And if that happens, my wife will
5:37
Speaker 1: be intensely annoyed with me. The real issue is that
5:41
Speaker 1: the groomer gets annoyed if you even ask her when
5:44
Speaker 1: she might be done with the dog. So I need
5:46
Speaker 1: to remain ready to leave the house at a moment's
5:49
Speaker 1: notice for the entirety of a three hour window. So
5:53
Speaker 1: that's my long winded way of saying no, But thank
5:56
Speaker 1: you for the invitation. Honestly wish I could do it
6:00
Speaker 1: instead of having my life controlled by a power hungry
6:03
Speaker 1: dog um in Dubuque, Iowa and quote, I don't even
6:10
Speaker 1: know what to say to that. That is the most
6:14
Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman reason for not coming on a podcast I
6:19
Speaker 1: could possibly imagine. It is precious, It is inappropriate. It
6:25
Speaker 1: is Debuque, Iowa, Debuque, Iowa. The worst part is that
6:32
Speaker 1: I'm certain it's true, and he should have He should
6:35
Speaker 1: have just said I'm at the doctor, I can't do it.
6:39
Speaker 1: He instead really put these cards on the table and
6:43
Speaker 1: let me see him. Is a is a real look
6:45
Speaker 1: into his life. I think he did it for our benefit.
6:47
Speaker 1: Don't forget this is a guy who has on Twitter
6:51
Speaker 1: in the past described the step by step process in
6:56
Speaker 1: the middle of being going through food poisoning and try
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Speaker 1: to do in Twitter a m a at the same time.
7:01
Speaker 1: So he clearly is shameless and has no boundaries. He's
7:06
Speaker 1: nothing if not precious used the exact right word. So
7:09
Speaker 1: we wish you all the best with with your dog, Matthew.
7:12
Speaker 1: Sorry you couldn't join us. I hope his dog looks
7:14
Speaker 1: really good and he better send us a picture maybe
7:17
Speaker 1: we'll have him on again sometimes. And then we got
7:20
Speaker 1: two divisions to cover today. I think they happen to
7:26
Speaker 1: be the least interesting divisions in the NFL. One of
7:29
Speaker 1: them is a division that I don't even think merits
7:34
Speaker 1: attention from anybody outside of the region in which they play.
7:38
Speaker 1: We have talked about this. It is the region with
7:41
Speaker 1: the most nondescript helmets, with fans that don't travel, with
7:46
Speaker 1: a fan base that doesn't extend usually beyond the city limits.
7:50
Speaker 1: We are talking about the a f C South. We
7:53
Speaker 1: are talking about the Colts and the Titans, and the
7:56
Speaker 1: Jags and the Texans, and then we're also talking about
8:00
Speaker 1: the NFC South, the Bucks and the Saints and the
8:03
Speaker 1: Panthers and the Falcons. No one ever gives a funk
8:05
Speaker 1: about these teams. Yeah again, I know child likes picking
8:09
Speaker 1: on these teams. I care. I like these teams. They're
8:12
Speaker 1: fun to me that I like their color combos. I
8:14
Speaker 1: love all their old nicknames, the Aints, the Buccaneers, cream
8:18
Speaker 1: cream orange skulls, Jerseys creamy, whimsical is not a Yiddish word.
8:23
Speaker 1: That's just an old time American dessert. The fairness. To me,
8:28
Speaker 1: I've been up since three am chat. So give me
8:30
Speaker 1: a break here. The Falcons, Like, the Falcons have been
8:33
Speaker 1: in the league for what sixty years, and it feels
8:37
Speaker 1: like there's no history there. Yeah, the their history is
8:40
Speaker 1: trading breath for up to Green Bay. Yeah, it just
8:43
Speaker 1: feels their history is the running shoot and Gerald Riggs.
8:50
Speaker 1: That's I guess we got to talk about them though.
8:53
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers are minus to seventy to win the division.
8:57
Speaker 1: Their win total is eleven and a half plus money
9:01
Speaker 1: on the over look, Like, you don't bet this team
9:06
Speaker 1: to win the division. If I were doing something with
9:09
Speaker 1: the Bucks, here's what I would do. Simon, tell me
9:12
Speaker 1: if you agree with this, it's a wise guy move.
9:15
Speaker 1: I would probably the Bucks and the Packers and try
9:17
Speaker 1: to drive my price down. That's the move you throw
9:20
Speaker 1: with the Packers, done with the Bills. Teams you think
9:23
Speaker 1: are locked in their division. I'll be doing it even
9:26
Speaker 1: though we're about to talk about it. The Bucks are
9:28
Speaker 1: a boring team, like you know what they are there, Brady,
9:32
Speaker 1: with a bunch of really good offensive weapons around them.
9:34
Speaker 1: You've gotten hit by the injury bug, right, We're a
9:36
Speaker 1: little worried about what's happened to them. So far, they've
9:39
Speaker 1: had a couple of injuries on their offensive line, but
9:42
Speaker 1: I mean, look at this division again, we're about to
9:44
Speaker 1: go through it. It's it's hard not to think of
9:46
Speaker 1: them getting to eleven a half wins. Like in Brady's career, mathematically,
9:51
Speaker 1: you always take this over a bet, like there's all
9:53
Speaker 1: there's just people out there that just kept been betting
9:54
Speaker 1: his under betting him getting hurt, and here we are.
9:57
Speaker 1: What is he now? I mean, it's really is crazy,
10:00
Speaker 1: Like I don't even know what to say or talk
10:02
Speaker 1: about because it's like I got nothing to base it
10:05
Speaker 1: off of. I just never seen it before. My computer
10:07
Speaker 1: can't comprehend it, like that year Brady won the Super
10:09
Speaker 1: Bowl with the Tampa Bay It's just it's like it
10:12
Speaker 1: sounds fictional. You're gonna tell your kids about it, it's
10:14
Speaker 1: not gonna sound real. Um. My favorite stat I saw
10:18
Speaker 1: is if you just take how many playoff wins these
10:20
Speaker 1: hats since he's thirty seven and beyond, he has the
10:22
Speaker 1: most playoff wins in NFL history after age thirty seven
10:26
Speaker 1: and beyond. So it's just all the numbers don't make
10:29
Speaker 1: sense with Brady. So I don't know. I wouldn't touch
10:31
Speaker 1: it because again we're gonna talk all these teams coming up.
10:34
Speaker 1: If you want to bet something with this team, Chad
10:36
Speaker 1: talked about maybe make a parlay with them with other
10:38
Speaker 1: divisional winners take their over. But this is this is
10:42
Speaker 1: not a fun bet. So to me, I won't invest
10:44
Speaker 1: and hold my money up on this team all season.
10:46
Speaker 1: There's just too many variables. It is truly amazing that
10:49
Speaker 1: the guys years old and playing at near peak. You
10:56
Speaker 1: could argue at peak in the nfl L When I
11:00
Speaker 1: turned forty, I had to stop playing basketball because I
11:05
Speaker 1: tore my labor and I broke my ribs in two
11:08
Speaker 1: separate incidents. When I turned fifty, I broke my pinky
11:12
Speaker 1: and I broke my thumb, just like playing catch with
11:15
Speaker 1: the football, Like you're brittle as you get older. I
11:20
Speaker 1: cannot believe he's able to do this. No, it doesn't
11:24
Speaker 1: doesn't make sense. Again, we laugh about it all the time,
11:28
Speaker 1: but it's just, you know, we all want to hate
11:30
Speaker 1: on Brady because it's like the man lives the most
11:32
Speaker 1: perfect life and he lives the dream. But it's like this,
11:35
Speaker 1: this guy is the greatest athlete where PA ever gonna
11:38
Speaker 1: see there's just nothing compared to the man is has
11:41
Speaker 1: potential to win another Super Bowl ring and Peyton Manning
11:43
Speaker 1: is about in the Hall of Fame. It's just you
11:46
Speaker 1: can't really wrap your head around it. It's just crazy
11:48
Speaker 1: what he's done and how long his careers lasted. Peyton
11:51
Speaker 1: Manning has already been in the Hall of Fame for
11:52
Speaker 1: like a year. It's interesting you mentioned It's interesting you
11:56
Speaker 1: mentioned him as a great ask because people wouldn't necessarily
12:00
Speaker 1: think of him as a great athlete, right you think
12:03
Speaker 1: you think of like Jordan's or Lebron or Serena or
12:07
Speaker 1: Bo Jackson or Dion right, Bruce Janner, right, Jim Thorpe.
12:14
Speaker 1: But I actually agree with you. I think the whole fallacy,
12:18
Speaker 1: the whole myth around Brady, that he's a guy who
12:22
Speaker 1: didn't have any of the physical advantages and is an
12:24
Speaker 1: underdog story is a fallacy. The guy is six four.
12:30
Speaker 1: He was a good enough baseball player in high school
12:32
Speaker 1: to get drafted. He was a good enough football player
12:35
Speaker 1: in high school to be recruited by USC and Michigan.
12:39
Speaker 1: It's not like these are these are backwater schools. These
12:42
Speaker 1: are schools that recruit the best quarterbacks in the country,
12:47
Speaker 1: and he just happens to be an incredible athlete. We've
12:50
Speaker 1: seen him play golf like who also happens to have
12:55
Speaker 1: more will and competitive spirit than anybody maybe since or
13:00
Speaker 1: other than Michael Jordan's. It's it's a lethal combination. Yeah, no,
13:04
Speaker 1: we'll we'll never see it ever again. I can like again,
13:07
Speaker 1: I'll never I hope you're like, you'll never say never,
13:09
Speaker 1: We'll never see it again. It's just to have the
13:12
Speaker 1: matchup of him with Belichick in such a bad week
13:15
Speaker 1: division that he just dominated for twenty years. It just
13:18
Speaker 1: we won't see it again. So yeah, I'm just when
13:20
Speaker 1: I think of Tampa Bay, I'm just gonna appreciate them
13:22
Speaker 1: this year, right, just appreciate Brading his greatness. But nobody
13:25
Speaker 1: can never say he's not a great athlete, because he's
13:28
Speaker 1: he's like one of the best athletes ever ever. No
13:32
Speaker 1: one else has a new coach. We don't believe in
13:34
Speaker 1: their quarterback. New Orleans is plus three ten to win
13:39
Speaker 1: the division. Their win total was eight and a half.
13:41
Speaker 1: We don't know what we're getting in a new coach.
13:43
Speaker 1: We don't know what their receiver group is going to
13:44
Speaker 1: look like. The eight and a half is reflective of
13:48
Speaker 1: how little bookmakers think of this division. Don't let anybody
13:52
Speaker 1: come in because they really don't think anyone can beat
13:54
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Yeah, talk to a lot of pros and
13:57
Speaker 1: they like the Saints team, and I just think they're
14:00
Speaker 1: just betting off emotion and what they think will be
14:02
Speaker 1: fun and a team that right. They They've had the
14:05
Speaker 1: Buccaneers number these last couple of years. They've just always
14:08
Speaker 1: beat them. Sean Payton's gone, that's a big deal to me,
14:11
Speaker 1: Like losing that head coach, that's gotta be that's gotta
14:14
Speaker 1: matter for this team. So I don't know what to
14:17
Speaker 1: do with them. Like I'm waiting on the Kamara news.
14:19
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas has actually looked really well, like you know,
14:22
Speaker 1: in practice for them coming back off that ankle injury.
14:25
Speaker 1: I don't know. There's other team's division i'd rather bet
14:27
Speaker 1: to win this division, and there's other totals i'd rather
14:29
Speaker 1: bet where I just don't have any answer for this now.
14:32
Speaker 1: Lan's team, I don't know what they're gonna be. I
14:34
Speaker 1: have no idea what their coaches like. But to me,
14:36
Speaker 1: it's not positive. You're losing a Hall of Fame coach
14:38
Speaker 1: in Sean Payton you're going to Jamis Winston, who we
14:41
Speaker 1: know what Jamis is, right, Like, he can have the moments,
14:44
Speaker 1: he can have those games where he goes five touchdowns
14:46
Speaker 1: known receptions, he's incredible, and then all three straight weeks
14:49
Speaker 1: of one touchdown, four picks. It's just the guy has
14:52
Speaker 1: never been consistent. He doesn't really put the work in.
14:55
Speaker 1: And I get what the fun is in the hype
14:58
Speaker 1: is around this New Orleans Staatets team, but you have
15:00
Speaker 1: to take a step back and really think about is
15:02
Speaker 1: this team really worth investing your money in for the
15:04
Speaker 1: next nine months. I just don't see it, So I
15:07
Speaker 1: wouldn't do it New Orleans. I would, Uh, there's other
15:09
Speaker 1: teams we're about to talk about this division I put
15:11
Speaker 1: my money on rather than New Orleans. What do you
15:13
Speaker 1: think the emotion is? What do you think wise guys
15:15
Speaker 1: are seeing in this team that makes them want to
15:17
Speaker 1: play them. They do have a strong core of the team, right,
15:21
Speaker 1: I mean, I know they lost their offensive lineman. I
15:22
Speaker 1: think the one guy head down to Miami. I'd have
15:25
Speaker 1: to look on who who moved, but I'm pretty sure
15:27
Speaker 1: they lost their all pro left tackle. So when they're
15:30
Speaker 1: looking at New Orleans, they're looking at a team that
15:32
Speaker 1: they're not that much worse than Tampa Bay right on paper,
15:36
Speaker 1: like a Tampa Bay as whole as that we really
15:38
Speaker 1: talk about pamp Tampa Bay is some major major holes
15:41
Speaker 1: of the offensive line in their secondary. But New Orleans
15:44
Speaker 1: to me is it's like light years away right at
15:47
Speaker 1: the quarterback position. Like I just I just don't see
15:50
Speaker 1: the advantager. That's why I like this. This division is
15:52
Speaker 1: gonna be so tricky where I get why people like
15:55
Speaker 1: the Ones and they're excited about Jamis Winston because he's
15:57
Speaker 1: such a fun quarterback, But eight and a half wins
15:59
Speaker 1: is a lot of for this team like them, then
16:01
Speaker 1: being eight and nine sounds right. I got them at
16:03
Speaker 1: seven Ones, I got them at seven and ten, So
16:06
Speaker 1: to me, they're getting a lot of respect from bookmakers,
16:08
Speaker 1: but being put an eight and a half where I
16:10
Speaker 1: just don't see it. So again, I would take their under,
16:13
Speaker 1: but I'm not putting a lot on it. They're just
16:15
Speaker 1: it's a team I have no fuel for because I
16:16
Speaker 1: don't know what I'm gonna get from this new head coach.
16:19
Speaker 1: You're right, I think there are more interesting teams in
16:22
Speaker 1: this division. Obviously we're talking about Carolina and Atlanta. Last year,
16:27
Speaker 1: we were a committed Atlanta Falcons podcast. This year, maybe
16:32
Speaker 1: we'll we will be We'll get to them. You and
16:35
Speaker 1: I I think are on opposite sides of Carolina there
16:40
Speaker 1: tend to want to win the division plus one thousand
16:44
Speaker 1: win total of six and a half. I love Carolina
16:51
Speaker 1: over six and a half, Carolina plus one oh five
16:57
Speaker 1: over six and a half. And you actually have a
17:00
Speaker 1: couple of pros joining you, a couple of couple of
17:02
Speaker 1: guys with this weekend they hit. They had a couple
17:05
Speaker 1: of different books and they bet the over six and
17:07
Speaker 1: a half. This was before they watched Baker play. Um.
17:11
Speaker 1: I think after seeing Baker in that preseason game, they
17:13
Speaker 1: probably regretted a little bit. But Caroline is an exciting team, right,
17:17
Speaker 1: They got a good defensive cores on offense. We know
17:21
Speaker 1: what they have, right. They have really really, really really
17:24
Speaker 1: really put a lot of money and time into this
17:28
Speaker 1: quarterback position. Every year it's a new QB. They went
17:31
Speaker 1: from Teddy to Sam Donald, now they're at Baker may
17:35
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield. I mean, it's just been to me, it's
17:39
Speaker 1: been too much that That's why I'm so down on them.
17:40
Speaker 1: Where It's like it's no stability. And I've seen with
17:44
Speaker 1: Baker that Stefanski Rand's one of the best offensive schemes
17:47
Speaker 1: in all football for the Browns, right, he runs a
17:50
Speaker 1: run first scheme, and that's what you're expecting to see
17:53
Speaker 1: here with Carolina. So I think when the pros they're
17:55
Speaker 1: backing what you're saying Chad is because they're saying, Okay,
17:59
Speaker 1: this kid has orgably the best running back in football.
18:02
Speaker 1: He's got good weapons on the outside. Can't Baker just
18:05
Speaker 1: game managed this team to the playoffs like he did
18:07
Speaker 1: with the Browns, which is like, how am I gonna
18:09
Speaker 1: argue against that? Like we've seen Baker do it, right,
18:11
Speaker 1: we saw him play an AFC Championship game against the Chiefs.
18:15
Speaker 1: He can manage a team to that position. I I
18:18
Speaker 1: just can't do it. Like I think it's it's too
18:21
Speaker 1: much for him to overcome Baker where he's an undersized
18:24
Speaker 1: quarterback that gets hurt and when he's not hurt, he
18:26
Speaker 1: makes dumb decisions like he's just he just doesn't have
18:30
Speaker 1: the men. It is not the mental makeup for me
18:32
Speaker 1: to really back with my money. And that's why again
18:35
Speaker 1: I love where Chad's head I like what these pros
18:38
Speaker 1: are saying. With Baker in this system could be huge.
18:40
Speaker 1: I think if Bicker did all right this year and
18:42
Speaker 1: they hit this over right, they go seven and nine.
18:44
Speaker 1: If they go eight and nine, yeah, give Baker another year.
18:48
Speaker 1: And that's when I maybe back them next year if
18:50
Speaker 1: he had another year in this offense. But his first year,
18:53
Speaker 1: I just can't see Baker making a huge leap to
18:55
Speaker 1: be in the playoffs and getting seven wins. It's just
18:58
Speaker 1: it feels like it's too much for him in this
19:00
Speaker 1: this new offensive scheme. I disagree. I think Baker's at
19:05
Speaker 1: his best when he's playing with a team for the
19:09
Speaker 1: first time and they can thrive off his personality and
19:13
Speaker 1: they can see how athletic he can be and be
19:18
Speaker 1: sort of you know, we had Ross Tucker on right
19:21
Speaker 1: and he talked about knowing, thinking, hoping with quarterbacks and
19:25
Speaker 1: the players in front of him, and that's their sort
19:27
Speaker 1: of mindset with certain players. I think Baker in his
19:31
Speaker 1: first year with the team, because of who he is,
19:34
Speaker 1: can get a team from hoping to know, even if
19:39
Speaker 1: it's not really the case. And I think with the
19:42
Speaker 1: running game that he can get and the fact that
19:44
Speaker 1: the Panthers will be better just by a virtue of
19:46
Speaker 1: not being on the field defensively as much as they
19:49
Speaker 1: were last year. Sick and a half. Six and a
19:51
Speaker 1: half feels like a pretty low bar to me. And
19:55
Speaker 1: then next year, when he's done well this year, they'll
19:58
Speaker 1: sign him to a big deal. That's when suck. That's
20:00
Speaker 1: when he'll get hurt. That's when he'll start to believe
20:02
Speaker 1: the hype. That's when he'll start to try to do
20:04
Speaker 1: too much, you know. But I think the pattern for
20:08
Speaker 1: Baker and he is at Oklahoma too, like first year
20:12
Speaker 1: in fucking racket ship. I love the theory. I just
20:17
Speaker 1: I couldn't. I can't back it, can't do it all right, Well,
20:20
Speaker 1: what do you want to say about your your favorite team?
20:22
Speaker 1: In the Falcons one to win the division? Four and
20:27
Speaker 1: a half? Is it a win total? And the only
20:30
Speaker 1: reason we like them is because they're the one that
20:32
Speaker 1: won the division way too big. Atlanta is just left
20:35
Speaker 1: for debt like they are dead. Marcus Mariotta is their quarterback.
20:39
Speaker 1: Don't know who Marcus Mariotte is. Some guy played at
20:42
Speaker 1: Oregon back in the day with Chip Kelly almost want
20:44
Speaker 1: to Heisman. He did win the Heisman. He was incredible,
20:48
Speaker 1: and then he's just been left for debt, right, like
20:50
Speaker 1: no one's really thought about him. He was about to
20:53
Speaker 1: back up for Las Vegas for two years. He's just
20:56
Speaker 1: he just isn't sexy, like kind of Chad just talking
20:59
Speaker 1: about people get sucked into the Baker stuff because Baker,
21:01
Speaker 1: he's a name, he's funny, he's exciting. There's no hype
21:04
Speaker 1: around its Atlanta team. There's just nothing. It's just gross.
21:08
Speaker 1: That's where I coming, Like, there's no chance this BET's
21:10
Speaker 1: gonna hit. There's no way this is gonna win. But
21:13
Speaker 1: it's too big, Like Atlanta should not be twenty to
21:16
Speaker 1: one to win this division. They should be fourteen to one.
21:19
Speaker 1: Fifteen to one, that's a more normal number for this
21:21
Speaker 1: team that does have pieces on this offense, like Mariotta
21:27
Speaker 1: as much, I loved the shot on the guy I
21:28
Speaker 1: saw in the preseason. He's got the legs like he's
21:31
Speaker 1: got the he can throw off balance, he has all
21:33
Speaker 1: the skill sets. It's as if can he stay healthy
21:36
Speaker 1: and one at that kind of long shot odds, I'm
21:40
Speaker 1: fine with putting a hundred bucks to bucks on this
21:42
Speaker 1: kind of bet, just just on the off chance that
21:44
Speaker 1: you know, come December there are one or two games
21:47
Speaker 1: back at Tampa, I can head you out of it.
21:49
Speaker 1: So to me, if you're just looking at pure value based,
21:51
Speaker 1: that's what I like with this division. I like this
21:54
Speaker 1: crazy long shot at lanted team that I trust their
21:57
Speaker 1: head coach, I trust the offense that they have there,
22:00
Speaker 1: and I do think their defense has been much improved
22:02
Speaker 1: of last year. So to me, I get it. Atlanta.
22:05
Speaker 1: Everyone's all about them tanking for the season, which does
22:07
Speaker 1: make sense. It's a great QB class coming up. I
22:10
Speaker 1: just don't think they're that as bad as everyone's left
22:12
Speaker 1: them to be, like they're just not one to win
22:15
Speaker 1: this division bad like they're they're just that's just too
22:18
Speaker 1: too extreme for this for me. So yeah, Atlanta again
22:23
Speaker 1: not telling people to put their house on. And this
22:24
Speaker 1: is one of my bigger bets for this division. I
22:26
Speaker 1: think that's the best value right now. By the way,
22:30
Speaker 1: one I'm looking in the Action Network app right now,
22:33
Speaker 1: that is by far the longest odds to win the
22:37
Speaker 1: division in the NFL. That is a long, long long shot.
22:42
Speaker 1: I love this. Like, so we know about scumbag bets,
22:45
Speaker 1: which sort of you bet on something that is totally
22:50
Speaker 1: mean spirited, like on the on Watson in the first
22:53
Speaker 1: half in the first preseason game that you did. What
22:57
Speaker 1: This is just a pure garbage bet. This is a
23:00
Speaker 1: just gross, disgusting beat. Yeah, and this is one of
23:04
Speaker 1: these you talk all the times if it's twenty one,
23:06
Speaker 1: I'll need to hit it once every twenty eight years.
23:08
Speaker 1: And that's the way I look at these kind of bets.
23:10
Speaker 1: It's like, I'm not gonna hit this already know it's
23:13
Speaker 1: a loser. It's the same thing. Like I joke all
23:14
Speaker 1: the time, I really did bet a lot of money
23:17
Speaker 1: on the Jack Choirs and Detroit Lions when a Super
23:19
Speaker 1: Bowl this year, there's zero chance that's gonna hit. I
23:22
Speaker 1: am well aware I let money on fire. People. It's
23:25
Speaker 1: all about positioning. It's all about hedging. Like that's literally
23:27
Speaker 1: my job has put myself in position to hedge out
23:30
Speaker 1: on our profits. So same thinking here Atlanta. I literally
23:33
Speaker 1: just let that money on fire. That money does not
23:35
Speaker 1: exist anymore because there's no way Atlanta wins this division.
23:38
Speaker 1: But on the off chance at a forty five year
23:40
Speaker 1: old quarterback gets hurt and the Saints are terrible and
23:43
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield's terrible. I love the odds. I just think
23:46
Speaker 1: it's way too much when there's just so much in
23:48
Speaker 1: the up in the air in this division. The NFL
23:52
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25:32
Speaker 1: in West Virginia. All right, we talked about Matt Ryan's
25:37
Speaker 1: old team in the Atlanta Falcons, Let's transition to his
25:40
Speaker 1: new team, and the a f C South The Indianapolis
25:43
Speaker 1: Colts minus on to win the division. Their season win
25:49
Speaker 1: total is nine and a half. I feel like bookmakers
25:53
Speaker 1: are setting a trap with the Colts because everyone always
25:56
Speaker 1: wants to love them. Everyone believes in Frank Reich, everyone
25:59
Speaker 1: believes Eaves in the roster they're building and Darius Leonard
26:03
Speaker 1: in that defense and Jonathan Stewart is going to be
26:05
Speaker 1: the number one fantasy guy. Are we being lured into
26:08
Speaker 1: a trap here? Simon? Yeah? And the way they're sucking
26:12
Speaker 1: us in is what Chad just talked about. Like, I'm
26:14
Speaker 1: I'm right there with them. I I every year I
26:16
Speaker 1: look at this cold team. I think they're the best
26:17
Speaker 1: team this division. And I think they're on a three
26:20
Speaker 1: year wind streak Tennessee, Like they just keep one of
26:22
Speaker 1: this division in the year. And before that, I think
26:24
Speaker 1: it was a Jaguars win in this division with Blake
26:26
Speaker 1: Bortles was a quarterback, and then before that Andrew Luck
26:29
Speaker 1: won the division. So it's been a long time for
26:31
Speaker 1: this cold team since they've really been on top of
26:34
Speaker 1: this division. And I think you're gonna good number, right
26:37
Speaker 1: if you want to bet the Colts and minus one,
26:40
Speaker 1: that is a great number. Like, I can't knock you
26:42
Speaker 1: for doing it. To me. I look at this team
26:45
Speaker 1: and I just have red flag and questions. Like I
26:48
Speaker 1: I look at their offensive line, they have some major
26:51
Speaker 1: question marks on that left side of the line. Right,
26:53
Speaker 1: they lost their left hackle, they lost their left guard.
26:56
Speaker 1: That's a big deal. Yeah, I guy's coming back from injuries.
27:00
Speaker 1: Who who's he throwing to? Right? We we know that
27:02
Speaker 1: the cold slash year that was Corson Wentz is a
27:04
Speaker 1: big ripe with him and he didn't have weapons on
27:05
Speaker 1: the outside. They really haven't improved that either. Obviously, we
27:09
Speaker 1: all know about Jonathan Taylor, the best running back in football,
27:11
Speaker 1: and that's the key to this team. Like, that's what's
27:13
Speaker 1: really gonna get them going. It's how he performs this
27:16
Speaker 1: year with Matt Ryan, he's just gonna be a game manager.
27:18
Speaker 1: The guy. Again, I don't want to shoot on that Ryan.
27:20
Speaker 1: I like Matt Ryan. He's a Penn Charter alum. He's
27:23
Speaker 1: a legend in my local area. But man, has he
27:26
Speaker 1: not really done anything since Kyle Shanahan left them, Like
27:29
Speaker 1: that was a long time ago. Him and Shane word together,
27:32
Speaker 1: and his career has kind of just been what Matt
27:35
Speaker 1: Ryan is. Right, Matt Ryan's above average quarterback and that's
27:37
Speaker 1: kind of what his career has been. So, you know,
27:39
Speaker 1: maybe a new change of scenery lights something up in him.
27:41
Speaker 1: But I just don't see it with him. I can't
27:44
Speaker 1: see it with this offense either, So to me, I'll
27:47
Speaker 1: be on there under again. I hate being that guy,
27:50
Speaker 1: but I have him in nine wins. I had him
27:51
Speaker 1: at nine point two. So though nine point five wins,
27:55
Speaker 1: it's a it's a slim margin. If I liked Matt Ryan,
27:57
Speaker 1: if I like what I'm seen from them and this
28:00
Speaker 1: preseason and reading stuff for these beat writers, maybe I'll
28:03
Speaker 1: bump it up and I'll take that over. Because I
28:05
Speaker 1: haven't bet it yet, but right now as I sit,
28:07
Speaker 1: I got him great out as an under So to me,
28:09
Speaker 1: I wouldn't touch him in divisionally, I wouldn't touch there
28:11
Speaker 1: over yet. Does Matt Ryan get into the Hall of Fame? God,
28:16
Speaker 1: I hope not. Like he's It's like the same thing
28:19
Speaker 1: about Philip Rivers, Like everyone's like Philip Rivers is the
28:21
Speaker 1: lock to get into the Hall of Fame, and it's
28:23
Speaker 1: just I don't know, it's I know it's easier getting
28:26
Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame, and it's all about you know,
28:27
Speaker 1: these guys padding the stats and everything like that, But
28:30
Speaker 1: there's gotta be some type of limit, Like can we
28:33
Speaker 1: really just shove these guys in Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers.
28:35
Speaker 1: I don't know. I just I just can't see that
28:38
Speaker 1: me voting them in. But I know beat writers it's
28:41
Speaker 1: a different story. But me personally, like a guy like
28:44
Speaker 1: Eli Manny who didn't have the stats but has the
28:46
Speaker 1: two Super Bowl rings, I'd put him over just because
28:48
Speaker 1: he did it in the most important time the playoffs.
28:51
Speaker 1: I agree. I totally agree. The other team in that division,
28:54
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. You know they were the number one seed
28:56
Speaker 1: in the a f C last year. Mike Rabo was
29:00
Speaker 1: one of those I feel like he's a little bit
29:02
Speaker 1: more of a sophisticated Dan Campbell, Like super smart, yes,
29:06
Speaker 1: super aggro, can get his guys motivated, um knows the
29:10
Speaker 1: rules so well, can outplay out, scheme outcoach just about
29:15
Speaker 1: anybody can get his team in the right position to
29:17
Speaker 1: win at the end of the year. Like, why aren't
29:20
Speaker 1: I bet in this team plus one seventy to win
29:22
Speaker 1: the division given what we just said about Indianapolis. It's funny,
29:26
Speaker 1: Like I went through my notebook from last year and
29:28
Speaker 1: on the show if you're near the show, me and
29:30
Speaker 1: Chad to make five picks every week for a contest
29:32
Speaker 1: were in and Tennessee was our most profitable teams last year.
29:35
Speaker 1: We want actually really big on them. I believe we
29:37
Speaker 1: want big on them against the Bills. We won big
29:39
Speaker 1: on them against the Chiefs, and there's just different games
29:41
Speaker 1: where he kept getting rebel as a dog. Even at home.
29:44
Speaker 1: He was a home dog, and a bunch of those
29:46
Speaker 1: games getting over three and a half, four and a
29:47
Speaker 1: half against these teams. We joked about it's just like
29:50
Speaker 1: we don't get it. We don't get how their defense
29:52
Speaker 1: was so good. But they just kept stepping up and
29:54
Speaker 1: they kept producing. They kept beating in these close, ugly,
29:56
Speaker 1: battled games, and that's where we see regression in this
29:59
Speaker 1: upcoming season. They had so much good fortune last year.
30:02
Speaker 1: They literally had the one seed, like that's even crazy
30:05
Speaker 1: to think about, and that loaded a f C. Tannehill
30:08
Speaker 1: somehow had the one seed last year. So you know,
30:11
Speaker 1: I would love to say they improved this awesome, but
30:13
Speaker 1: they didn't. Right, They lost a J. Brown, they lost
30:16
Speaker 1: a couple of stars on the defensive side. They are
30:18
Speaker 1: again Derrick Henry Beck, which we can all agree is
30:20
Speaker 1: a big upgrade from what they had last year. But
30:22
Speaker 1: it feels like it's a lot for this Tennessee team
30:24
Speaker 1: to overcome I'm gonna keep grading out as I go here.
30:27
Speaker 1: I got them eight point seven wins. The book's come
30:29
Speaker 1: at nine and a half. They're nine win team. To me, like,
30:32
Speaker 1: that's again in this division we're gonna talk about all years.
30:34
Speaker 1: It's it's gonna be a very competitive division where it
30:36
Speaker 1: hasn't really been in the past. So I love Tennessee.
30:38
Speaker 1: I loved Rabel I'll forever be thankful for all the
30:40
Speaker 1: money they want us last year. But it's a new
30:43
Speaker 1: year and they're just They're one of those teams that
30:45
Speaker 1: scream regression on the defensive side and offensive side. So
30:49
Speaker 1: I like taking that under. If you still can get
30:51
Speaker 1: the nine and a half at a plus number, I
30:53
Speaker 1: would take that number. Well, look, you you have it
30:55
Speaker 1: graded at nine. Nine feels like the right number. And
30:58
Speaker 1: if that's the case, take the under nine and a half.
31:01
Speaker 1: The other team that we want to talk about here Houston.
31:05
Speaker 1: One win in the division. Four and a half is
31:07
Speaker 1: the win total. Davis Mills, we're both big fans. We'll
31:10
Speaker 1: get to it in a second, but we're not going
31:11
Speaker 1: to spend as much time on Houston as we are
31:13
Speaker 1: on Jacksonville. I'm coming around to your way of thinking
31:17
Speaker 1: on this plus seven fifty to win the division win
31:22
Speaker 1: total six and a half. Simon Hunter, professional analyzer of football.
31:29
Speaker 1: We have been talking about the Jacksonville Jaguars. I know
31:32
Speaker 1: you've got a strong opinion. Light it up. This is
31:35
Speaker 1: why you have on the show, brother, this is how
31:38
Speaker 1: I make my living picking these ugly, ugly divisional winners
31:42
Speaker 1: in the middle of July that no one wants to
31:43
Speaker 1: talk about. Like, literally, no one else is talking about
31:46
Speaker 1: the Jaguars in July, just me and Chad because we're
31:48
Speaker 1: just stick in the head that way. Yeah, I love
31:51
Speaker 1: this team for everything that we talked about earlier in
31:54
Speaker 1: the summer. We're always looking for the ugliest girl in
31:58
Speaker 1: the bar. It's like running joke. That's like a pro
32:00
Speaker 1: jokeerre looking for the uthers from the bar that when
32:04
Speaker 1: they turn the lights on, she's actually when of the
32:06
Speaker 1: best looking girls in the bar. You just didn't know
32:08
Speaker 1: it because she didn't look right in the lights. That's
32:10
Speaker 1: why I feel like the Jaguars are right we're looking
32:11
Speaker 1: at them. They look gross. They had this weird drafts
32:14
Speaker 1: these last couple of years. They haven't had a good
32:16
Speaker 1: coach in last I don't know five years man. When
32:20
Speaker 1: you strip it all away, you just look on paper.
32:22
Speaker 1: This team has a ton of talent and it's all
32:25
Speaker 1: about Trevor Lawrence. And that's what I'm banking on right now.
32:27
Speaker 1: I'm looking at Doug Peterson. He found something that Carson
32:31
Speaker 1: Wentz and no one else has since his middle find right.
32:33
Speaker 1: He took Carson Wentz in a second year. That's what
32:35
Speaker 1: I'm open with. Trevor Lawrence a guy that the minute
32:38
Speaker 1: he stepped on the field when heever whatever was eighth grade,
32:41
Speaker 1: he never had lost. He didn't lose all went to
32:43
Speaker 1: college and maybe lost a handful of games in college.
32:45
Speaker 1: He's just a proven winner. And he got humbled. That's
32:48
Speaker 1: one of my favorite thing about Trevor Lawrence experiences. He
32:51
Speaker 1: got humbled last year like they were bad. He was bad,
32:54
Speaker 1: That whole team was bad. And we now we've just
32:57
Speaker 1: seen multiple guys talk about now they have a professional
32:59
Speaker 1: in the building an Doug Peterson. I love. I love
33:02
Speaker 1: this team so much in the sense that no one
33:05
Speaker 1: was talking about that months ago. So we were able
33:06
Speaker 1: to get them at plus nine hundred ten to one
33:09
Speaker 1: to win this division at one point. Now Fandel has
33:11
Speaker 1: them down to seven to one eighth to one, shop
33:14
Speaker 1: around for that number. Um. I love the Jags, love
33:18
Speaker 1: their over having an eight wins for the season. Again,
33:22
Speaker 1: when I talk about taking them for the division, being
33:24
Speaker 1: chatter talking about's all about putting yourself a position to hedge. So,
33:27
Speaker 1: do I really think they're gonna the division? No, Like
33:29
Speaker 1: I don't. I do think they're a step behind Tennessee
33:31
Speaker 1: in the Colts. Do I think these odds are way
33:34
Speaker 1: too extreme because they were so bad last year? Yes?
33:36
Speaker 1: So if you if you're like me and you just
33:39
Speaker 1: believe in the talents there on the Jaguars, which we
33:42
Speaker 1: all know it is. They've had these high draft picks
33:44
Speaker 1: and now the new coaching regime can come in and
33:46
Speaker 1: shake it up, it's kind of a no brainer bet
33:48
Speaker 1: so to me, you're getting a good plus number of
33:51
Speaker 1: the over six and a half and for them divisionally,
33:53
Speaker 1: how can you not bet this team? To me, Simon,
33:56
Speaker 1: the Jags have a little bit of a Bengals vibe.
33:59
Speaker 1: You know, there's a comp between Joe Burrow and his development,
34:03
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence and his development. Doug Peterson, as you've mentioned
34:07
Speaker 1: with Carson Wentz, we think he's a better coach for
34:09
Speaker 1: quarterbacks than Zach Taylor is. There's a lot of intriguing
34:14
Speaker 1: opportunities with this Jack's team. You don't have to take
34:18
Speaker 1: a full unit at plus seven fifty, take like a
34:22
Speaker 1: little taste. It's like, it's just worth it to have
34:24
Speaker 1: skin in the game on this one. Yeah, I love that.
34:28
Speaker 1: Should we talk about the Houston Texas one with Davis
34:31
Speaker 1: Mills and four and a half and Lovey Smith as
34:34
Speaker 1: the new coach, A team that is in disarray and shambles. Yeah,
34:40
Speaker 1: it'll be quick, don't. I wouldn't do anything for them
34:42
Speaker 1: this year, but I am excited about their future. Just
34:45
Speaker 1: a team that means shattered me betting all season, So
34:47
Speaker 1: it's like, don't don't even have to tie on your
34:49
Speaker 1: money up in them. They're always gonna be underdogs. And
34:52
Speaker 1: I just love this team. I love their defense, love
34:54
Speaker 1: their offense, love Davis Mills. Just it's gonna be a
34:57
Speaker 1: very fun team for me this season. Ben Houston, But
34:59
Speaker 1: all our local listeners, don't tire your money up from
35:01
Speaker 1: this team. Like I bet they're over, but I wouldn't
35:04
Speaker 1: recommend it any of you. It's just not gonna be fun.
35:06
Speaker 1: It's just gonna be one of those we're gonna be
35:07
Speaker 1: sweating into the final week of the season, so I
35:09
Speaker 1: wouldn't tell anyone to bet it. Just just enjoy Benn
35:12
Speaker 1: Houston at big plus numbers this season. Look, I can
35:15
Speaker 1: already tell you right now. We're gonna love the Texans
35:17
Speaker 1: at plus seven and a half at home against the
35:20
Speaker 1: Colts in Week one. Easy bet easy, just like we
35:25
Speaker 1: love Detroit plus four and a half at home against
35:28
Speaker 1: the Eagles in Week one. It's like, come on, man,
35:32
Speaker 1: these are no brainers. It doesn't matter if you have
35:35
Speaker 1: one cheek and three toes. I will be your ressa
35:39
Speaker 1: I don't like in week one at home Chicago Bears
35:42
Speaker 1: plus six and a half steps before. But listen, we'll
35:45
Speaker 1: get into that. We'll get into that the weakest September six,
35:48
Speaker 1: We're gonna cover it all well, Simon. We cover the
35:51
Speaker 1: a f C South, we cover the NFC South. We
35:53
Speaker 1: covered all the teams with nondescript telments that nobody cares
35:56
Speaker 1: about unless you live in the city limits of those teams.
36:00
Speaker 1: For Simon Hunter, I am Chad Millman. For Matt Mitchell,
36:03
Speaker 1: producer extraordinaire. This has been the Favorites podcast from the
36:07
Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. Download us from Apple, podcasts from Spotify,
36:11
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, Rate review, subscribe, leave us
36:14
Speaker 1: five stars, Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
36:18
Speaker 1: Until next time, I love you