Latest / Simply Bitcoin / NEW DATA: Have Bitcoin Whales Lost Control of The Price?! | EP 1325

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NEW DATA: Have Bitcoin Whales Lost Control of The Price?! | EP 1325 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Today we're going to be showing you guys some new data that
• 0:03
  might suggest the Bitcoin price suppression gains are over.
• 0:08
  Now I know how crazy that sounds because right now Bitcoin is at
• 0:12
  $109,000 per coin, which is the exact same price it was nine
• 0:19
  months ago. But we've got some really
• 0:21
  interesting things that Opti and I want to cover today.
• 0:24
  Firstly, we just saw a new record past literally hours ago
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  because the corporations with Bitcoin on the balance sheet now
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  hold over 1,000,000 Bitcoin. They are definitively draining
• 0:41
  the exchanges and everybody's watching this price and, you
• 0:46
  know, suppression and everybody's looking at the
• 0:48
  Bitcoin being bought by their corporations and they're
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  wondering what is going on. Optics got a really interesting
• 0:55
  new theory for you guys today. So Opti, where do you want to
• 0:59
  start today's show? Well, I'll start with the, the
• 1:03
  chart of the corporations scooping up so much coin.
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  I mean, as we've been seeing the, the corporate Bitcoin
• 1:10
  treasuries have been all the rage.
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  And I think at this point you, you can admit like it's, it's a
• 1:17
  hype for a reason. They are scooping up a lot of
• 1:19
  Bitcoin. And as I've been saying for a
• 1:21
  while, I hate saying it this way, but there is a new investor
• 1:26
  quote, UN quote in the space. And I know we're all wondering
• 1:30
  like, what's going on with the price?
• 1:31
  We've we've been hitting on this for a while.
• 1:33
  And it seems like every time we talk about what is going on with
• 1:36
  the price, everyone loves it. And so you, I think this is like
• 1:39
  a zeitgeist of the psychology going on.
• 1:41
  You know, someone in the chat said I'm tired, boss.
• 1:43
  And I, I've been joking with Luke and Nico for a while saying
• 1:46
  the same thing like I'm tired, boss.
• 1:48
  Can we just start pumping already?
• 1:50
  But we are seeing a crazy amount of accumulation coming out of
• 1:53
  the corporate treasuries like a million Bitcoin and what like I
• 1:57
  know sailors most of this 600,000 plus coins, but still
• 2:02
  the the amount that a Bitcoin that we've seen scooped up from
• 2:05
  other companies is is like no small fee.
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  And this is really only happened in let's say like the last year.
• 2:13
  And that's not even counting the ETFs that also have a million
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  bitcoins. So that's 2 million gone so
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  seemingly forever because they are talking about Bitcoin in
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  this long term horizon view. They're not so much talking
• 2:27
  about it as like a short term kind of trade.
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  So like this number in itself is crazy.
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  Now go to that other other chart that you were showing.
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  Oh, no, not this one yet. Don't go to this one yet.
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  The the hotter wave 1, the hotter wave one, which will lead
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  into that that chart you just showed.
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  So I again, guys, I'm super color blind.
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  So it's hard for me to see the the like, you know what these
• 2:53
  times are. But as you can see from this
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  tweet it it's we're seeing this transition moment right now.
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  And and this does lead me into what my theory is.
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  But Luke, let's like we're seeing the data showing us there
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  is a transit like a transitory moment that we are living
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  through. And I've been calling it this
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  2025 year. Like it is going to be one of
• 3:16
  those defining years where we can time stamp it and be like,
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  yeah, this is the year that things fundamentally change for
• 3:22
  Bitcoin. Obviously we're only going to
• 3:23
  know this in hindsight, but this is the gut feeling that I have
• 3:27
  right now is like 2025 is going to be that year where we could
• 3:30
  look back and B, yeah, things change.
• 3:33
  You know, we have 2020, which is the the, the crash in March that
• 3:38
  everyone was freaking out about. We have the 2017 highs.
• 3:41
  We have the 2021 kind of a China mining ban or what?
• 3:46
  However you want to frame that, we have the 2024 is the time of
• 3:51
  the ETFs coming in and 2025, which is kind of a continuation
• 3:56
  of that same kind of momentum. Is this transition from from
• 4:01
  long term holders into new entrance into the space?
• 4:05
  So Luke, let's go to that. This the whale chart that we
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  have here, cuz that's really going to kind of lead me into
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  where where my conspiracy theories hats comes on.
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  But really it, it's the data to back up a theory that I've been
• 4:21
  working on. I'm not alone in this theory,
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  but I've I've been harping on this theory as well.
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  So Luke explain this chart for people and then all kind of
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  I'll, I'll give it my take on this.
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  And I think this chart does confirm what I what I've been
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  saying on the show for a while. Yes.
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  So this chart in the pink is looking at the number of Bitcoin
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  held by whales. So it's looking at whales who
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  hold between 100 and I believe it's 10,000 Bitcoin.
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  And you can see we're down about 25% from the peak that we saw in
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  mid 2021 since the top of that bull run.
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  And a lot of people are looking at this data thinking, hang on a
• 5:00
  minute, whales are selling. Whales typically sell the tops.
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  The again, a lot of people are looking at this chart and
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  they're saying, uh oh, we might have topped.
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  This is why all of your on chain Bros are starting to hedge and
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  wedge themselves. They're starting to say, oh, I
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  don't know if this is the top, but there's some data suggesting
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  that maybe it is. I personally don't think that's
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  the case. But Opdia, I'd love to hear your
• 5:23
  thoughts on what you think this rotation from the big whales
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  means for Bitcoin and why one of the biggest holders selling.
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  Yeah, well, first of all, I will double down on that with you.
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  I don't think this is the top. It just makes no sense to me.
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  But OK, go to that other chart, the one with the pink on it.
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  I I thought it was a red chart, but you know, it is what it is.
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  OK, now expanded so people could look at it a little clearer.
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  Hit the hit the the the top the top arrows.
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  Yeah. Let's try to get it as big as
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  possible. There we go and maybe zoom in a
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  little bit. So when I was looking at this,
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  obviously the news in itself is interesting.
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  The supply held by Wales with I believe the number was what 100
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  coin to 10,000 coin addresses is at A7 year low.
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  So that number in itself is interesting that that whole idea
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  is very interesting just in and of itself.
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  Just that data point by by itself.
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  And a lot of people have been talking about on Twitter of this
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  idea and and some of it comes from shit coiners as well or
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  people that are probably short Bitcoin and long everything
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  else. And there's this kind of idea
• 6:36
  right now that long term holders of Bitcoin, maybe more
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  libertarian freedom minded individuals are losing open
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  Bitcoin because of the new corporate treasury push or
• 6:47
  nation states getting into Bitcoin.
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  And maybe there's, maybe there's some credence to this idea.
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  I, I obviously I don't have whale friends here.
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  I don't have friends that hold 10,000 coins plus.
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  But from what we're hearing, people are saying they, they are
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  losing, maybe they're losing their, their confidence in what
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  Bitcoin is going to do in the future.
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  And we've been talking about that on the show here as well.
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  This idea of like, are we being psyopped or, or is this what
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  winning fields like we've been underdogs for so long that now
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  when we're being embraced, it does make us feel a little iffy.
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  So that that could be just, you know, one of the ideas here of,
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  hey, people are kind of losing faith in the freedom aspects of
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  Bitcoin. And there's a lot, a lot of
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  debates going on. One the Bitcoin core knots
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  debate going on is Bitcoin being silop.
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  This is an old debate we've seen since 2017.
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  Maybe people are seeing the new push from corporations and
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  institutions of the Larry Finks of the world, the Jamie Diamonds
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  of the world come into Bitcoin and they think this is not what
• 7:53
  I got into. Yeah, there we go.
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  Peter Thiel. Yeah.
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  Well, I'm not going to put my thoughts out here on Peter Thiel
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  per SE, but or the ETFs coming in.
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  Did the ETFs neuter Bitcoin that that could be one of the framing
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  here. The other framing is is is sort
• 8:12
  of what we'll get into later. I don't know if you have that
• 8:14
  Max Kaiser tweet, but like 100K was the ogs, the early
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  bitcoiners moon shot number. If we ever get to 100K, that's
• 8:23
  their number where they're I'm going to take some profits yes,
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  we all know big Fiat money is trash.
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  Why would you take profits into Fiat Bitcoin is the profits
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  etcetera, etcetera. I see all that I, I, I, I live
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  all the those memes, I believe all of that.
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  But what I think is kind of happening here or, or the other
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  one, a lot of these wells maybe are funneling their their
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  holdings into these Bitcoin treasury companies.
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  And This is why we're seeing a lot of selling on the exchanges
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  in like 20 K plus tranches. I, I don't know, these are all
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  up for debate right now, but go back to this, the pink chart,
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  because it does, I think explain a theory that I've been saying
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  on the show for a little bit, pull, pull it back up so people
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  can can see it. I've been kind of saying, and I
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  and I kind of mentioned it in the beginning, it does feel that
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  ever since the ETFs launch, ever since we've got Trump embracing,
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  embracing Bitcoin, Larry Fink embracing Bitcoin, there is a
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  new investor, quote UN quote investor, there is a new market
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  participant in Bitcoin. And when I saw this chart, I
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  wasn't so much angled in this idea of like, oh, whales are
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  selling out. What I kind of noticed here is
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  all right, so zooming in here, you don't have to zoom in.
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  But if you look at this this chart, we have the pink, which
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  is the whale addresses their their supply per whale holding.
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  You can see it's it's, you know, went up until 2021.
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  I think this starts at 2020 and now we're at A7 year low.
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  We haven't been here in a long time and so.
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  But what I noticed here is yeah, less centralization is
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  definitely good. What I've noticed here and, and
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  again, this is my theory, I could be completely wrong here,
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  but this does confirm what I've been saying on the show.
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  What my buddy Mitchell Hoddle has been saying is that the
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  having cycles are different now ever since the ETF has been
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  launched, the game has fundamentally shifted.
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  So when I look at this chart, what I see is you see the think
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  you know start to get accumulated by whales and the
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  price kind of follows exactly that movement as the price
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  starts running up yes or in the beginning it's kind of flat and
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  then it dumps and then the whales start accumulating again
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  and then the Bitcoin price continues to go up until 2021.
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  And then as the whales start selling Bitcoin, of course the
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  price starts dumping. But what is interesting here is
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  if you look at this date here where the price and the supply
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  per whale starts to divert here is around that January 2024 time
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  frame, which is literally when the ETFs launch.
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  And so if this first half of the chart was kind of following the
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  historical kind of make up here, you would think that as the
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  price go or rather as the whale starts selling Bitcoin that the
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  price would go down. But you're seeing that there's a
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  divergent here in the chart, which make leads me to believe
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  that yes, in fact the data is showing us that since the ETF
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  have come into or rather been launched and everyone is is
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  piling into these ETF. Since the Bitcoin corporate
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  treasury companies are are acquiring as much Bitcoin as
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  they have million plus and we're seeing nation states secretly
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  buying Bitcoin. At least that's the rumors in
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  the speculation. You'd expect that the Bitcoin
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  price would go down if the whales were selling as much coin
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  as they are though. We've been holding above 100K
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  for over 100 days here. So there is a divergent going on
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  here now. A lot of us bitcoins I've been
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  talking about, is the halving cycle still intact?
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  That's the big question here. That's the what?
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  What's the market cap $2.21 trillion question right now.
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  Is the halving cycle still intact?
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  But I've been seeing, and I've been kind of covering this on
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  the show. We're, we're seeing a lot of
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  conversations right now that since sovereign wealth funds,
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  since the nation states, since corporate treasury, since ETFs
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  have all been launched or rather have this appetite for Bitcoin,
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  we have this like infinite bid on the Bitcoin bottom.
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  We have an infinite bid on the Bitcoin price.
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  And this is changing the dynamics here.
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  And so I said the last couple of weeks, it does feel like this is
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  the last, I don't know, dying grasp of whales really
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  controlling the price. And now since institutions are
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  here, for better or worse, it does seem like they are the ones
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  in control of the price. Now, what is this going to mean
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  long term? Who knows?
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  Are they going to panic if we see a, you know, 5060% drawdown?
• 13:06
  Probably. But you're looking at this
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  chart, or rather when I look at this chart, I'm seeing that
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  since the ET FS launch, we are seeing a completely different
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  market dynamic because we all know the whales for historically
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  the lifetime of Bitcoin have been the ones in control.
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  And now there's literally no retail in the market.
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  The volume is dead from retail. The Google trends are dead from
• 13:28
  retail. And you could say maybe it's
• 13:30
  because they're searching about ChatGPT, you know how to get
• 13:32
  Bitcoin. But you're seeing that if the
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  whales were dumping this much coin as they are, I think in the
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  last week or two, what's it, Luke?
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  Last month they've jumped like 150,000 coins.
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  Someone is buying this with every seller, there's a buyer
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  and and you would expect if they're dumping this much coin
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  that the price would also drops. And now we're seeing this isn't
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  a double top. This is literally a transition
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  from the old guard to the new guard.
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  This is a transition from the OG whales that hit their number
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  100K. It's getting distributed into
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  the network. And as of now, the institutions
• 14:09
  are eating all over our lunch because they basically have free
• 14:11
  money here. They're taking out sailor loans.
• 14:14
  They're able to buy Bitcoin with like literally 0% loans, which
• 14:18
  is unheard of. Well, I think sailors like .2%
• 14:21
  loans or something, just like something none of us have any
• 14:24
  capacity of getting. So anyways, I saw that chart
• 14:27
  and, and it, it really confirmed my bias that we, I think we are
• 14:31
  seeing a fundamental shift in the market structure ever since
• 14:36
  the ETFs have launched, ever since we saw this corporate
• 14:38
  Bitcoin FOMO nation state FOMO, things are changing and it is
• 14:42
  going to be very interesting to see what happens Q4 especially,
• 14:46
  you know, interest rates are right around the corner.
• 14:48
  Supposedly it looks like we're going to be in a bullish Q4.
• 14:54
  So I, I mean, I'm still on the idea that we're going to pump,
• 14:58
  but you're starting to see that there is a, the huddle
• 15:02
  transition going on from OG Wales that probably still have
• 15:06
  huge stacks. I doubt they're selling all of
• 15:08
  their Bitcoin and going into these corporate plays, whether
• 15:12
  it's ETFs, whether it's the corporate Bitcoin treasury
• 15:16
  plays, or whether it's the just straight up acquiring a Bitcoin
• 15:21
  from these institutions and big players in the space.
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  Things are changing and now, and now it's like confirming what
• 15:27
  I've been saying, 'cause I have a data point, whether I'm wrong
• 15:30
  or not, I think the data, I have data to back up my theory now
• 15:34
  it's no longer just a gut vibe. So that's kind of my, I don't
• 15:38
  know, tinfoil hat take on this. I think the data is, is
• 15:42
  confirming what we're what we're seeing that the having, I don't
• 15:45
  know if the having cycle is dead, but the new entrance, new
• 15:49
  entrance in Bitcoin are fundamentally shifting the
• 15:51
  market price structure and it's going to be very interesting to
• 15:55
  see how this plays out. I agree, I've got a lot of
• 15:58
  responses and questions for you Opti, but I think the first one,
• 16:01
  does that mean you don't believe in the power law?
• 16:04
  I mean, I I've never really been the biggest fan of power law.
• 16:08
  I I believe in power laws. I know they're a part of nature,
• 16:14
  but I just, I don't know about power law on price.
• 16:20
  It it's hard to predict. Like I think the power law will
• 16:23
  break to the upside because it, when I look at the power law and
• 16:27
  then you guys again, can correct me if I'm wrong here.
• 16:30
  What the power law to me seems to suggest is that we will see a
• 16:35
  kind of continued slow trickle of adoption.
• 16:38
  And I'd I think a Black Swan scenario could fundamentally
• 16:42
  shift the power law in, in a more bullish scenario, like if
• 16:45
  people really quickly lose trust in these institutions.
• 16:48
  And I think the power law will break to the upside.
• 16:50
  So I, I, I, it's hard for me to believe that humans are that
• 16:57
  easily mathematically, algorithmically, kind of tracked
• 17:01
  and bagged. But what, what do I know?
• 17:03
  You know, I, I have a 42 IQ. Math's not my strong suit.
• 17:07
  All right, I'll put, I'll wait until a little bit later on in
• 17:10
  the show until I put you in the spot again.
• 17:12
  What I want to look at here is I want to take a look at something
• 17:16
  you said. ETF flows right now are
• 17:19
  outnumbering the new amount of Bitcoin that's coming onto the
• 17:23
  network. We can see in 2025.
• 17:25
  This is a little bit of an older chart, but I like it because
• 17:28
  visually it's showing you that ETFs alone are buying three
• 17:32
  times the new supply of Bitcoin again each year.
• 17:36
  There's about 160,000 Bitcoin mined and Opti and I, we were
• 17:41
  showing you the charts looking at the fact that right now
• 17:46
  public companies with Bitcoin on the treasury, they have bought a
• 17:51
  million coins collectively, but look what they've done in the
• 17:54
  past year alone. So we're in Q32025.
• 17:58
  If you look at Q32024, we're at 360,000 Bitcoin.
• 18:03
  So in a year just the corporations like Strategy,
• 18:09
  Metaplanet 21 and all of the 120 odd new public companies with
• 18:14
  Bitcoin on the balance sheet they have bought around what's
• 18:18
  that 640,000 Bitcoin in a year again 160,000 Bitcoin is mined a
• 18:25
  year. So just the public companies
• 18:28
  with Bitcoin in the balance sheet have forex, the amount of
• 18:31
  Bitcoin that's mined every year and it's coming onto the
• 18:34
  network. And This is why I think we
• 18:36
  continue to see charts like this.
• 18:38
  Bitcoin is leaving the exchanges.
• 18:40
  I think if this trend continues, eventually we're going to get
• 18:43
  into a world where there's zero Bitcoin on the exchanges.
• 18:46
  It's going to happen. Yes, there's always going to be
• 18:48
  a seller of Bitcoin, but I think the buyer on the other side of
• 18:51
  that transaction is going to dwarf the seller.
• 18:54
  And I just think that this will, to your point ofti to the gotcha
• 18:59
  question I posed to you, I think this is also going to break the
• 19:03
  power law to the upside because I think all of these old
• 19:07
  metrics, they're based on old data, they're imagining and
• 19:12
  they're assuming that the Bitcoin supply and demand
• 19:15
  dynamic is the same today in 2025 as it was before 2020.
• 19:22
  That's just not true. Like pre 2020 for 12 years, we
• 19:25
  only saw the number of Bitcoin on exchanges rise.
• 19:29
  It was 0 in the early days and it rose to like 3.2 million in
• 19:33
  2020. Since then we've seen a complete
• 19:36
  trend change. For five years we've seen
• 19:38
  Bitcoin leave the exchanges, we've seen 35% leave the spot
• 19:42
  exchanges and about 80% leave the OTC desks.
• 19:46
  And what what was the demand side of the equation looking
• 19:49
  like pre 2020? No institutions, no public
• 19:53
  companies buying Bitcoin, no nation states, no pension funds,
• 19:56
  no Harvard universities like we saw last week, Opti and now
• 20:00
  they're all buying Bitcoin and FOMO in into buying Bitcoin and
• 20:03
  they're not just trading it for a Lambo like the dominant market
• 20:07
  participant was doing in 2017. Again, who was buying Bitcoin in
• 20:12
  2017 and what was the narrative? It was retail smash buying
• 20:16
  Bitcoin, but they were just buying Bitcoin for six month
• 20:18
  trade and then they were going to sell it at the top for a
• 20:20
  Lambo. Now it's completely different.
• 20:23
  No longer the dominant market participants smash buying
• 20:27
  Bitcoin. We have the big boys
• 20:29
  methodically dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin on every
• 20:32
  dip. But these guys are also holding
• 20:34
  for the long term. Sure, there might be a couple of
• 20:37
  public companies who fumble the ball and they sell Bitcoin
• 20:40
  early, like Tesla for example. But I think the majority of
• 20:44
  them, like we continue to show you on this chart, Bitcoin
• 20:47
  treasuries.net, the majority of these guys, more than 90% of the
• 20:52
  public companies putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
• 20:55
  They're buying and they're holding and they're not selling.
• 20:57
  And a lot of these guys are following in the footsteps of
• 21:01
  micro strategy and they're pledging and promising to hold
• 21:05
  on to Bitcoin for decades. So again, I, I think to your
• 21:09
  point Optia, I think we're in a sea change.
• 21:11
  I love, I actually didn't even notice the chart that's has the
• 21:16
  pink slash red little graphic on it that diverged to your point
• 21:22
  in the beginning of 2024. That's a really keen
• 21:26
  observation. And I typically agree.
• 21:28
  I think the big boys right now are dominating the market and we
• 21:32
  are living through this transition.
• 21:36
  Yeah, 100%. Like I think and you, you guys
• 21:40
  know how I usually do this. I, I have a gut feeling.
• 21:43
  I'm very, very honest about confirming my biases here.
• 21:47
  You know, I only trust the experts if their science
• 21:50
  confirms my bias, just like everyone else.
• 21:55
  So I, I've, I've, we've all been on the show.
• 21:59
  It's been nine months. You know what?
• 22:00
  Go back, go back to the initial Bitcoin chart.
• 22:03
  It's been what, since December 2024, September 4th here.
• 22:08
  So it's been 10 months, almost 10 months, 9 and ish months and
• 22:12
  we haven't done anything. And we've been coming on the
• 22:15
  show and everyone's wondering, you know, everyone's doing the
• 22:18
  YouTube searches like what's going on with the price?
• 22:20
  Like what's going on with the price?
• 22:21
  Aren't we supposed to be ripping right now?
• 22:23
  Didn't didn't we get promised 150K like yesterday?
• 22:26
  What is going on? And it's like this idea where
• 22:30
  we're all are. If you've been in the cycles in
• 22:33
  Bitcoin for a long time, you, you kind of understand how this
• 22:37
  stuff works. And the psychology going on
• 22:40
  right now is everyone's kind of wondering what is going on.
• 22:43
  And I think This is why we're seeing Bitcoiners fight
• 22:45
  themselves, you know, eat each other up on Twitter over what,
• 22:49
  you know, whatever is the new flavor of the month, Because
• 22:51
  that's usually what happens when when we get bored of price
• 22:54
  action, you start attacking each other.
• 22:57
  That's that's just what happens historically.
• 23:00
  And the more people attack each other, the more we're all
• 23:02
  wondering what is going on? Are we double topping?
• 23:05
  Are the having cycles over? It just makes me think like,
• 23:09
  things are changing. And until we get the data to
• 23:12
  really confirm what is going on in the market, you, you're kind
• 23:17
  of just sitting here wondering like, OK, things have changed.
• 23:21
  Things are changing as we speak. There are new entrance in
• 23:26
  Bitcoin. They're coming from a space that
• 23:28
  we used to say was coming. Now they're here.
• 23:31
  I don't think that Domino's fully fallen.
• 23:33
  I think the, the data is showing us that about like 1% of asset
• 23:40
  managers are global asset managers have allocated to
• 23:43
  Bitcoin and I think their allocation percentage is like
• 23:47
  3%. So essentially like 99% of the
• 23:50
  capital hasn't even hit Bitcoin yet.
• 23:53
  And we're already seeing a change in the market structure,
• 23:56
  which kind of goes back to what I was saying.
• 23:58
  I think the power law is going to break to the upside.
• 24:00
  Like I again, what's it, what's it mean?
• 24:02
  All your models are broken and all your models are broken to
• 24:05
  the upside. I, I think we are very, very
• 24:09
  under bullish here in regards to what is happening.
• 24:14
  And I'm sure Luke and I will get super.
• 24:15
  We'll we'll be overly bullish by the end of the show.
• 24:18
  But yeah, things are changing and we're trying to quantify
• 24:21
  what is that change, where is it coming from, what is going on in
• 24:25
  the market so that we can have better information because of
• 24:28
  course, obviously we don't trade Bitcoin, but you like to know
• 24:32
  what is going on in the markets. You like to know what's going
• 24:34
  on, what the price. You really want to know, do I
• 24:36
  have to brace myself for another two year bear market?
• 24:38
  Or is this the, the whales trying to shake us out?
• 24:42
  Whether that's institutional, whether that's Wall Street
• 24:45
  trying to shake us out of our position or whether that's the
• 24:48
  the OG whales trying to shake us out of our position.
• 24:51
  You, you really want to have the data to understand what, what is
• 24:55
  the signal here? Where is this going?
• 24:57
  You know, how much money should I be putting into this?
• 25:00
  How much money do I need for a rent and to survive so I can
• 25:03
  withstand another another bear market like these are the
• 25:07
  conversations and and thoughts that we are probably all
• 25:10
  happening right now. But the more people search for
• 25:12
  this idea of price suppression. Is there price suppression?
• 25:15
  Is there paper Bitcoin summer ever going to end?
• 25:19
  It starts to make you wonder if things are changing because
• 25:21
  people are asking these questions.
• 25:23
  And I and I think that chart is proving the, this theory that
• 25:28
  if, if since 2024, the ETF launch, things have changed.
• 25:36
  Now, is that going to be for the better or for the worse?
• 25:38
  We really won't know. Only hindsight will tell us if,
• 25:40
  if this is a bad thing, if they can actually control the Bitcoin
• 25:43
  price. Are we still small enough that
• 25:46
  they do have overt influence over the price?
• 25:49
  And then at what price point do they lose control?
• 25:52
  So we saw now, hey, the silver lining here is 100K.
• 25:57
  If this continues as we're seeing and Wales keep dumping
• 26:00
  Bitcoin, but the price keeps going up, we we have a data
• 26:03
  point 100K was that was that price point that the OG whales
• 26:07
  no longer control the price. Now what's going to be the price
• 26:11
  point that Wall Street and institutions can't really
• 26:13
  manipulate the price? I'd say maybe a 10X from here,
• 26:17
  maybe a million per coin is when they, they basically won't be
• 26:22
  able to move the market. And then we'll see a influx of
• 26:25
  new capital coming in. So could be a long time from
• 26:28
  now. But hey, we have, we have some
• 26:31
  in some data points here showing 100K.
• 26:33
  Was that that kind of mega price point?
• 26:36
  That was the OG moon. And now new entrants are coming
• 26:41
  in, they're scooping up that Bitcoin and I'm guessing
• 26:44
  1,000,000 is going to be the new moon for most people here.
• 26:46
  So it's interesting data. And again, I could be totally
• 26:50
  wrong, but that's what I saw and that's what I was thinking when
• 26:52
  I was looking that chart. It's like we are seeing a
• 26:55
  divergent here. And I, I think that's a bullish
• 26:57
  indicator. I think it's super interesting.
• 27:00
  And I think again, I think when we zoom out, there probably will
• 27:04
  be a point on the Bitcoin price chart where maybe the sellers,
• 27:10
  let's say, let's not say disappear because again, there
• 27:12
  will always be a seller of Bitcoin.
• 27:14
  I'm never denying that. But I think there will be a
• 27:17
  period here where the buyers are going to be absolutely dwarfing
• 27:23
  the sellers on the other side of the transaction.
• 27:25
  I think that's when we start to go exponential.
• 27:28
  This is my favorite model. Again, I think all models are
• 27:30
  wrong, All models are broken. But I think the stock to FOMO is
• 27:34
  probably the most, let's call it directionally correct model for
• 27:38
  Bitcoin. I, I think it kind of accurately
• 27:40
  models what happens when a new money is adopted by the world.
• 27:46
  And that's what I think we're living through right now.
• 27:49
  Many bitcoiners have said it. Everybody's wondering when is
• 27:53
  hyper bitcoinization now is hyper bitcoinization.
• 27:57
  We're living through hyper bitcoinization.
• 27:59
  We're just early on that adoption curve and I think you
• 28:03
  know what you were you were telling me this morning of you
• 28:06
  one of your favorite tweets, the next 16 years of Bitcoin will be
• 28:10
  more bullish than the previous 16 years of Bitcoin.
• 28:13
  I 100% I cosigned that message. Yeah, and hey, it wasn't one of
• 28:18
  my favorite tweets. It it was the people's favorite
• 28:21
  tweets, 'cause I was like, I was, I was trolling.
• 28:23
  I'm like, look, when I actually try to think boy and provide
• 28:26
  value on Twitter, my my tweets don't do numbers, but when I
• 28:30
  just shit, they do some numbers. And that was that was a ship
• 28:33
  host. But I actually believe it.
• 28:35
  I think the next 16 years in Bitcoin are going to be even
• 28:38
  more bullish in the last 16 years.
• 28:39
  And it's literally because of this chart.
• 28:41
  I'm saying I believe in the S curve adoption of Bitcoin in the
• 28:45
  sense that it is technology and it is money and you know, money
• 28:49
  wants to be the number one apex predator out there.
• 28:52
  And so I think we are highly underestimating how quickly
• 28:56
  people will drop Fiat at some point.
• 28:59
  I don't know what that point is, but they would there will be a
• 29:02
  point where they're just trusted institutions happened overnight
• 29:05
  essentially. Whether that's a Weimar Republic
• 29:08
  hyperinflationary scenario is a totally different conversation.
• 29:11
  Maybe it's just people had enough of the lies.
• 29:13
  I don't know what that last straw will be, but I do think
• 29:17
  the next 16 years are going to be even more bullish, you know,
• 29:20
  and I mean that by price returns.
• 29:22
  I mean that by games here, not this diminishing returns meme.
• 29:27
  I think the next 16 years, I don't, I don't know.
• 29:29
  I don't know if we can do another what, 1.5 million
• 29:33
  percent return or whatever Bitcoin had from literally
• 29:35
  nothing to 100K. But I do think the next 16 years
• 29:39
  is going to be even more bullish.
• 29:42
  Me too. I I think we're gonna be talking
• 29:44
  about numbers probably bigger than $1 million later on in the
• 29:47
  show, but I wanna rein myself in here 'cause we do have a little
• 29:51
  bit more to talk about. Yeah, yeah.
• 29:54
  Wait in this segment or keep it moving.
• 29:56
  Keep it moving and then we'll get bullish, OK?
• 29:57
  We'll get bullish in a moment. OK, All right, Yeah, we're
• 29:59
  gonna. OK, On that note, guys, I do
• 30:02
  want to remind you guys to, of course, smash the like button
• 30:08
  comment on the show. What do you think about the
• 30:09
  show? And of course, hit the sub, hit,
• 30:12
  hit the sub subscriber button, 'cause we're dropping the best
• 30:16
  content here, period. We're dropping the most and the
• 30:18
  best, maybe besides Luke's channel, Luke's, Luke's been
• 30:22
  killing it over there. But anyways, also, if you want
• 30:27
  to buy Bitcoin, you want to make sure you're buying Bitcoin
• 30:30
  correctly. And hey, I'm not here to put
• 30:32
  cash judgement on it, but we think Bitcoin well, does it the
• 30:36
  best. You literally need a Bitcoin
• 30:38
  wallet to buy Bitcoin. Once your Fiat goes through, it
• 30:41
  goes directly to your cold storage.
• 30:43
  They have never lost Bitcoin and they will never lose your
• 30:45
  Bitcoin. And there's no possibility of
• 30:47
  ever losing that Bitcoin because they never hold that Bitcoin.
• 30:51
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• 30:52
  So go to bitcoinwell.com/simply BTC or or scan, scan the QR code
• 30:58
  here. And if you scan the QR code, you
• 31:00
  are going to get three chances to win a million sets.
• 31:03
  And I will do the Bitcoin well wishing well at the end of the
• 31:07
  show. So I will be giving out free
• 31:10
  Bitcoin at the end of the show. But if you are on the sidelines
• 31:14
  and you're like, you know, this kid with a funny haircut and a
• 31:18
  funny accent and this other guy that has his own funny accent,
• 31:22
  they're making a lot of sense here.
• 31:24
  I need to get my Fiat out of the traditional financial system as
• 31:28
  quickly as possible. I need to smash by $50,000 a
• 31:31
  Bitcoin right now. Get in touch with the Bitcoin
• 31:34
  Infinite Wealth team and they will give you white glove
• 31:36
  service. Make sure that if this is the
• 31:38
  first time you're buying into Bitcoin that you store this
• 31:42
  Bitcoin for the long term. This is generational wealth
• 31:45
  after all. You need, we need to take this
• 31:47
  Bitcoin custody thing seriously because we are here for the long
• 31:51
  run and you do not want to wreck yourself.
• 31:53
  All right, guys, I got a good show.
• 31:54
  So Doctor Jeff Ross came back and he's kind of saying what
• 31:58
  Luke and I are saying that, hey, there is a lot of economic
• 32:02
  turmoil right now, economic uncertainty.
• 32:04
  But once we get through that little, I don't know, Dark
• 32:07
  Knight, it's going to RIP. And I couldn't agree more.
• 32:10
  And then I'm glad you brought up the S curve adoption chart here,
• 32:14
  Luke, because BTC Archive dropped an interesting chart
• 32:19
  here about the adoption of Bitcoin and where it where it is
• 32:24
  historically against other adoptions of technology.
• 32:27
  And it's getting bullish here. And I think Luke and I are going
• 32:30
  to do some FUD stuff. We'll get bullish and and some
• 32:32
  FUD Buster episodes at the end of the show.
• 32:35
  So on that note, let's get into the rest of it.
• 32:44
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Stamp seed.
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• 33:57
  Yeah chat y'all killing me right now chat you know it wouldn't be
• 34:01
  the same without you guys love you guys anyways let's look at
• 34:05
  cock movies dashboard I I nuked all the other stuff here so I'm
• 34:09
  just giving you the meat and potatoes here is the current
• 34:12
  Bitcoin price is $109,780. I think I want to do a little
• 34:19
  where, where is my fail? Do I have it right here?
• 34:22
  No, I don't have it. Anyways.
• 34:23
  Anyways, $109,780 per Bitcoin guys, it's over.
• 34:28
  We had a good run. We are currently at a block
• 34:31
  height of 913,185 and the current market cap is barely
• 34:35
  hanging on to two trillion 2.19 trillion, a decline from all
• 34:39
  time high of -11.8%. It's not even -12% and everyone
• 34:46
  thinks it's over. I, I absolutely love it.
• 34:48
  I love when we see blood on the streets.
• 34:51
  Luke makes me feel alive again. Hey, we're not going to get
• 34:54
  Bitcoin pumps. At least we can still still rest
• 34:58
  our hat on the fact we're going to get Bitcoin dumps.
• 35:01
  So got to feel alive somehow. Anyways, I saw this clip, Doctor
• 35:06
  Jeff Ross. I haven't really been hearing
• 35:07
  much from Doctor Jeff Ross recently, but again, I'm
• 35:11
  confirming my bias here. But he says it's exactly what
• 35:16
  I've been thinking, exactly what I've been saying.
• 35:18
  So I like when you know, people that have a doctor prefix in
• 35:21
  front of their name say what I say.
• 35:23
  It makes me, it makes me feel better about myself and that I'm
• 35:26
  actually smarter than 42 IQ. So let's hear what Doctor Jeff
• 35:30
  Ross has to say. Let's get an update from Doctor
• 35:32
  Jeff Ross. 40,000 U.S. dollars right now, it should be well
• 35:36
  above that based on the liquidity metrics I follow.
• 35:39
  Very surprised that it's not there, but I think again, it's
• 35:42
  being held on by the economy. I think once the most market
• 35:46
  participants believe that the US economy is finally starting to
• 35:50
  surge, I think the price of Bitcoin will skyrocket at that
• 35:53
  point. So that's just my personal take
• 35:54
  is it's gonna make up for last time.
• 35:56
  It leaves me very bullish with where we are.
• 35:59
  Like I said earlier, for the next 6 months or so, I'm
• 36:02
  actually very bullish. If you would have asked me two
• 36:05
  or three years ago, I would have said we'd almost be at the peak
• 36:07
  of this business cycle. But we haven't even started yet.
• 36:10
  And so there's a chance we either have this massive surge
• 36:14
  higher in a short amount of time in the in Q4 and we still
• 36:17
  maintain these four year cycles. Or more likely what it's looking
• 36:20
  like to me is the cycle extends into the first half of 2026
• 36:24
  somewhere, which to me would mean the Bitcoin peak would
• 36:27
  probably extend and happen somewhere in the first half of
• 36:30
  2026. One other thing I want to bring
• 36:32
  up is because everybody knows that global M2 and liquidity
• 36:36
  lead the price of Bitcoin. Something that I've noticed
• 36:39
  however, is that at cycle peaks of Bitcoin price, the price of
• 36:46
  Bitcoin actually leads those other factors.
• 36:49
  So I would caution people to be very careful.
• 36:51
  What I've noticed from past cycles is that even though
• 36:55
  global M2 is still rising and kind of looking toppy, like the
• 36:58
  rate of change is starting to slow down a little bit.
• 37:01
  Even though the economy is revved up and PM is are sitting
• 37:03
  around 60 or so and everybody is super bullish, that's usually
• 37:07
  about the time Bitcoin peaks. Sheesh.
• 37:11
  So, hey, a lot of things to unpack there.
• 37:14
  One is I, you know, I love, I just love some opium, you know,
• 37:20
  on a Thursday morning, six more months of pumping.
• 37:23
  I am I'm so with this, this sounds great.
• 37:25
  What do you what do you got here?
• 37:26
  What? What's that chart?
• 37:28
  Just just hiding a couple of things from you.
• 37:30
  Optic OK, six more months of pumping, you know, please me
• 37:35
  familia, can we get some pumping back into this into the market?
• 37:40
  But I also was thinking and and I didn't have this thought when
• 37:45
  I watched this this morning, but I was having a conversation with
• 37:50
  a friend. Actually, it was with the oceans
• 37:52
  and and you guys know oceans beyond Bitcoin.
• 37:55
  He's one of our content creators and I was kind of explaining to
• 37:57
  him that every one of our content creators kind of has
• 38:01
  their own interest in in their messaging of what they like, you
• 38:05
  know, like Nico, for better or worse, he loves politics.
• 38:08
  Rustin is just our in house lunatic, stupidly bullish
• 38:13
  lunatic freedom. Maxi love him.
• 38:16
  You know, Dante loves sports, but he's also really into kind
• 38:19
  of finances and institutions. That's kind of his foray.
• 38:23
  Sophie's still kind of learning, but she's a mother, so she's
• 38:26
  coming from that motherly kind of view.
• 38:29
  My view is just like I'm just the court jester, stupidly
• 38:32
  bullish the whole time. But recently, as you guys have
• 38:34
  noticed, I have been getting more into kind of macro and Geo
• 38:39
  geopolitics because I think we are in an economic war.
• 38:42
  And so that's what's interesting me the most.
• 38:45
  And what Doctor Jeff Ross just kind of said in the beginning is
• 38:48
  one of the things that I've also latched on to in the last couple
• 38:50
  of weeks is like there is a lot of economic uncertainty right
• 38:54
  now. There is a lot going on,
• 38:56
  especially from the Trump administration that does have
• 39:00
  downstream effects to every other nation.
• 39:02
  And so what's happening right now in the US, they are making
• 39:06
  plays. They are trying to kind of rein
• 39:09
  in inflation where we don't know whether they're going to cut
• 39:12
  interest rates or not. What's this going to do for
• 39:15
  global asset or rather M2 liquidity globally, but not just
• 39:19
  globally in the US as well. So there's a lot of things going
• 39:22
  on right now and as we're seeing gold's pumping, which basically
• 39:26
  means, hey, people are not really feeling safe in
• 39:29
  treasuries and they're going to the safe haven asset, which is
• 39:33
  gold historically. So like there is economic
• 39:35
  uncertainty and one of the things about money is you hoard
• 39:38
  money, you know, whether you're a cash maxi, whether you're a
• 39:41
  Bitcoin maxi, whether you're a gold maxi, you hold money or
• 39:45
  hoard money when there is times of uncertainty.
• 39:49
  And what we're seeing is that hoarding is increasing right
• 39:53
  now. So people are trying to protect
• 39:55
  themselves and then once they figure out what's going on, once
• 39:58
  the dust settle is when they start to deploy their their
• 40:01
  assets, their capital. And this is what we're seeing
• 40:04
  right now. So until we kind of get some
• 40:06
  more information of what's going on.
• 40:09
  A lot of people are just going to kind of be sitting on their
• 40:11
  hands because they don't know exactly what to do with their
• 40:13
  money yet. They, they still kind of afraid
• 40:16
  of what's going to happen in the markets.
• 40:18
  But I think in what about 11 days, once we figure out what
• 40:22
  the Fed does, if they cut rates, I think we're going to see
• 40:25
  capital being deployed like never before.
• 40:28
  And I think a lot of that capital will find its way into
• 40:30
  Bitcoin. So I'm also in this idea of the
• 40:32
  next six months. I've, I told one of my friends
• 40:34
  the other day, I think Q4 is going to be super bullish and
• 40:39
  I'm thinking it's probably going to go into at the very least Q1
• 40:44
  of 2026. And then, hey, if Jerome Powell
• 40:47
  leaves you what, Q2 of 2026, you know, the money printer is going
• 40:53
  to go insane. So I, I, I tend to agree with
• 40:57
  this idea that the, the Bitcoin cycles are elongated now
• 41:02
  they're, they're longer than ever before.
• 41:03
  We have data to show that this is the longest bear market on on
• 41:08
  metric here. We haven't had a blow off top or
• 41:10
  rather the longest point from a decline to a blow off top that
• 41:14
  we've seen historically. So the the cycles are or rather
• 41:18
  maybe the price structure is elongating here.
• 41:22
  So I don't know man, I'm starting to feel that 2026 might
• 41:25
  not be a devastating bear market.
• 41:27
  That's what I'm hoping guys. The the last bear market was
• 41:30
  brutal going all in on Bitcoin and Bitcoin content as my job.
• 41:34
  It was a brutal bear market for me personally.
• 41:36
  But hey, we survived. We're gonna survive the next
• 41:38
  one. Stay, stay humble stack SAT stay
• 41:41
  solvent. This is the way.
• 41:43
  So what is wait? Opti is your macro advisor?
• 41:46
  LOL, no guys, do not do look, hold on, let me full screen
• 41:50
  myself here. Do not not allocate life
• 41:55
  changing money based on my signals here.
• 41:57
  This is what I'm doing, OK? I am not a financial advisor,
• 42:01
  I'm not ACPA. This is entertainment.
• 42:04
  Okay, this is nothing more, nothing more, nothing less.
• 42:09
  But if we want to get a little bit more entertainment into the
• 42:13
  show of the I, this is what I was hiding from you a minute
• 42:17
  ago, because this is kind of what Jeff Ross was talking about
• 42:21
  in that little clip we just played for you guys, Bitcoin and
• 42:24
  global liquidity. Now, I also agree that these
• 42:27
  kind of four year cycles of liquidity look as if they're
• 42:31
  expanding a little bit. You can see in the blue, I'm
• 42:34
  going to take the pink line off this chart.
• 42:36
  So we've just got the Bitcoin price in white.
• 42:39
  And then in the blue, you can see that when we see these big
• 42:42
  massive expansions in the global liquidity that correlates really
• 42:47
  nicely with Bitcoin peaks. Now again, I, I think we're just
• 42:51
  kind of warming up here. You can see there's no real peak
• 42:55
  in this global liquidity cycle. So I think yes, we're trending
• 42:59
  up. But if you just look at the
• 43:00
  past, this is 10, this is 11 years worth of data here.
• 43:04
  So this this isn't any cherry pick chart.
• 43:06
  You can kind of see before you see these big massive peaks and
• 43:10
  expansions in global liquidity that look to last somewhere
• 43:14
  around six months, you kind of see it warming up and that's
• 43:17
  kind of what the chart looks like to me.
• 43:19
  We're kind of warming up. We've got rumours and talk of
• 43:24
  Jerome Powell lowering interest rates soon.
• 43:28
  If Trump fires power in the next 6 months when he's turns up,
• 43:33
  imagine what global liquidity is going to do if interest rates
• 43:36
  are jacked down from like 4 to 5% to 1%.
• 43:40
  I think liquidity is going to RIP and that all kind of that
• 43:44
  six to nine month timeline that we might see global liquidity
• 43:49
  increase if history repeats. That kind of suggests Bitcoin
• 43:55
  has a good what 6789 months left in it.
• 43:59
  So I, I, I wouldn't be expecting a peek until what Q 22026 if
• 44:06
  cycles hold true and if history repeats itself again, my kind of
• 44:10
  base case is we break the cycles this bull run and we're even
• 44:14
  more, I think we see less large 2 year bear markets where the
• 44:19
  price goes down like 85%. But even if you think that is
• 44:23
  true and even if I am wrong, which is a good possibility, I
• 44:27
  still think we've got another six to nine months left in US.
• 44:29
  What do you think of the this chart here?
• 44:34
  Yeah, I mean, dude, again, 42 IQ take from this guys.
• 44:38
  The more liquidity that they have in the system or AKA the
• 44:42
  more money they have to print, the more money they create out
• 44:45
  of thin air, the more it needs to find hard assets.
• 44:49
  Like the more money sloshing around in the system, the more
• 44:53
  eventually that hikes up assets. Bitcoin, in my opinion, is a
• 44:58
  hard asset, one of the best assets, but of course that will
• 45:01
  also increase, you know, housing, gold, art,
• 45:04
  collectibles, all the good things in life are going to get
• 45:07
  more expensive because they are debasing your currency.
• 45:11
  And again, you got to remember the kind of unspoken monetary
• 45:16
  policy that's being played out right now is they, it's the,
• 45:20
  it's the elephant in the room. Like they have to inflate their
• 45:23
  way out of this. Not just the US, all basically
• 45:26
  Western countries have enormous debts.
• 45:29
  Their interest rates on that debt is getting crazy.
• 45:32
  The only way they can get out of this is basically print their
• 45:35
  way out of this, debase their, their payments.
• 45:38
  So like, hey, you know, really simple, if you owe a dollar and,
• 45:45
  or let's, let's do like the math.
• 45:47
  If you owe $100 and today that $100 can buy you whatever, you
• 45:53
  know, a watch or something, I don't know what you whatever
• 45:55
  $100.00 of purchasing power. And then they debase that
• 45:58
  currency by 50%. Well, now you can basically pay
• 46:03
  off $150.00 of debt like because it just got destroyed.
• 46:09
  So your new debt would essentially be it's cheaper.
• 46:12
  I think. I actually I think I messed up
• 46:14
  that for example, but you're. You're it'll be cheaper.
• 46:16
  Yeah, you got it right. Your debt, if you just start to
• 46:20
  debase your currency, your debt obligations become cheaper on
• 46:24
  like on paper, that just means there's more money to be like
• 46:28
  there's more money going around. But hey, Luke, will you go back
• 46:30
  to that chart? I do wonder, could you do wait,
• 46:34
  not this, Yeah, one of these. Do they have USM 2 versus
• 46:40
  Bitcoin? Because I I saw some metrics and
• 46:43
  actually you can see it if you go back to that other one, that
• 46:47
  one is a little cleaner. This one is super.
• 46:50
  Clean. Yeah, this one you can see like
• 46:52
  the correlation is what it's very, very similar as you know
• 46:57
  the the global liquidity M2 supply goes up, the Bitcoin
• 47:01
  price goes up as it goes down, we have bear markets as it goes
• 47:04
  up in bull markets, etcetera. And it's kind of falling along
• 47:07
  perfect. But here you can see at the very
• 47:09
  end it is kind of breaking. And that's kind of what Doctor
• 47:13
  Jeff Ross was saying is that once you do get to a toppy, you
• 47:17
  know, position in the market, Bitcoin will lead that for a
• 47:21
  little bit. So, hey, we'll see what happens.
• 47:24
  But I was seeing a couple of memes, sorry, not memes threads
• 47:27
  on Twitter. And it was saying, I know we all
• 47:30
  talk about the M2 global money supply as the leading indicator
• 47:34
  of what is going on. You know, more liquidity in the
• 47:37
  system usually correlates to a higher Bitcoin price.
• 47:42
  Someone was saying that they think it's more closely related
• 47:46
  to just simply the USM 2 growth. And they had a chart there.
• 47:51
  So I was wondering if you can if there was a better correlation.
• 47:54
  But this one looks really clean. This one's like damn near
• 47:58
  identical. And then typically all of the
• 48:01
  charts that I found typically like the global monetary supply
• 48:05
  will expand before Bitcoin. Now, again, I'm not someone who
• 48:09
  believes that there's this like 1 to 1 lockstep correlation.
• 48:13
  Like there's a lot of charts you see flying around on Twitter
• 48:18
  saying, oh, the global money supply is like 14 days ahead of
• 48:22
  Bitcoin. I don't think the correlation's
• 48:24
  that close. But I think on like a four year
• 48:26
  time horizon, I think there's a, there's a, there's a pretty good
• 48:30
  correlation there between Bitcoin following global
• 48:34
  monetary expansion and also Bitcoin following what gold is
• 48:39
  doing. Because I think we covered for
• 48:41
  you guys earlier in the week, gold is breaking out to record
• 48:43
  highs. And again, we got a ton of data
• 48:46
  showing that when gold rallies Bitcoin.
• 48:48
  Follows. Yeah, let's go.
• 48:51
  Hey, gold bugs, thanks for leaving the hard money game.
• 48:56
  But we will take it from here. Gold's going crazy right now,
• 49:00
  guys. Like I think it's almost out.
• 49:03
  I think it broke what, 3500 yesterday?
• 49:05
  It's almost going to break like 3600.
• 49:07
  Analysts are saying it's going to go to like 4K.
• 49:10
  That is not a good sign of what's happening in the system.
• 49:13
  If that many people are are piling into gold, what is it?
• 49:17
  This is. Yeah, it's at like 35.
• 49:19
  It's almost at $3600. That's literally the highest
• 49:23
  price for gold ever. It's not a that's not that.
• 49:27
  This, this does not make you feel good.
• 49:29
  If you understand the correlation of gold with
• 49:32
  traditional financial system, The fact we're seeing gold
• 49:35
  ripped this high, it's telling you something.
• 49:37
  There's something happening. Now what what that is is we
• 49:42
  probably won't know, but we'll know pretty soon.
• 49:45
  We we will know very soon what is going on because when gold
• 49:49
  rips like this, it is telling you something about what is
• 49:52
  happening in the system. And look at that.
• 49:54
  Is this, is this what I'm seeing?
• 49:56
  2008, it's been ripping since 2000.
• 49:58
  Was 2008 the peak right there? I can't line it up.
• 50:01
  This is the last you got 2012? Yeah, that, but gold had like a
• 50:05
  12 year correction, so to say. Yeah, but two, it it started
• 50:08
  peaking in 2008 right there, right is this.
• 50:10
  What this line is saying? No, no, the one right before the
• 50:13
  peak. Right like before?
• 50:15
  Yep. No, the other way left.
• 50:17
  Yeah, that one. That's 2008, yeah.
• 50:20
  OK, interesting. So yeah, we're seeing another
• 50:24
  spike here, guys. I don't know, I don't know.
• 50:28
  I'm happy I'm in Bitcoin and that's that's all I'm going to
• 50:31
  say here. So I'm.
• 50:33
  Wiki. Bitcoins going to catch up to
• 50:36
  the shiny rock soon anyways, we are going to kind of continue
• 50:41
  the conversation about S curve adoption.
• 50:43
  I saw another interesting chart that's starting to make me feel
• 50:47
  bullish. I'm I'm starting and it has
• 50:48
  nothing to do with price with no more chart blowing.
• 50:50
  This is adoption levels of Bitcoin.
• 50:53
  That is very interesting. So let's get into that.
• 50:57
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  15% off anything on the store. All right, sorry, guys, I'm in
• 52:51
  the chat. I'm in the chat.
• 52:53
  I'm in the chat, boys. Yeah, you guys are cracking me
• 52:56
  up, man. I love the chat.
• 52:57
  You guys are funny. OK, here we go.
• 53:00
  So as I was saying, I'm secretly A char boy.
• 53:06
  Everyone is. Hey, look, Moon boy is not a
• 53:08
  derogatory statement, OK? It's a way of life, all right?
• 53:14
  All right, So check out this chart guys.
• 53:17
  I don't know if these numbers are correct.
• 53:18
  It is coming from crypto.com and World Bank and global macro
• 53:22
  investor. Yeah, but not the best source
• 53:25
  here to to say the least. But it is an interesting thought
• 53:29
  experiment. So the tweet is Bitcoin adoption
• 53:31
  is growing faster than the Internet did and we've been
• 53:33
  talking about this for a long time.
• 53:36
  You know S curve adoptions of technology and how they play
• 53:40
  out. But I do think this is a a very
• 53:44
  interesting kind of perspective. Now, when I was looking at this
• 53:49
  I I don't know I I personally, I don't know where they're getting
• 53:53
  these numbers from, but it says where we are now 2025 one
• 53:57
  billion quote UN quote crypto users.
• 54:00
  So I'm guessing that is shit coiners and bitcoiners combine,
• 54:05
  which would be my guess. But if this is directionally
• 54:09
  correct, it shows that there is more people adopting Bitcoin or
• 54:15
  or rather Bitcoin and crypto is being adopted faster than the
• 54:18
  Internet. And we saw the paradigm shift of
• 54:20
  what the Internet has done for the world.
• 54:22
  Like I fully believe we're never going back to a world without
• 54:25
  the Internet. If if whatever a sun flare
• 54:29
  explodes everything and we're all wrecked, we will figure out
• 54:33
  how to get the Internet back up guys like the we're we're going
• 54:36
  to get the Internet, we're going to have the Internet with us
• 54:38
  forever. So here we are.
• 54:40
  And looking a little further, you know, first billion users,
• 54:44
  apparently I, I think this is inflated personally, but if this
• 54:48
  is directionally correct, then the global Internet users is at
• 54:53
  a 1992 to like what 2006 level? So here it would be.
• 55:01
  I don't know where, like early 2000s.
• 55:04
  When was AIMA thing? I'm going to Chad Shuchi.
• 55:07
  Do you guys remember AIM? That's where we are yet right
• 55:11
  now. Let me see.
• 55:12
  Instant AOL. Wow, I don't even remember what
• 55:15
  it is. Instant messenger.
• 55:17
  You guys remember this? Am I just a boomer here?
• 55:19
  I'm such a boomer now. Let's see when I'm a boomer
• 55:23
  dude, OK? AOL launched AIM, do you guys
• 55:28
  don't do you young kids, You youngins out here?
• 55:30
  I'm I'm freaking unk over here now.
• 55:32
  This is crazy. You youngins don't remember the
• 55:37
  Klout and the vibe shift that happened on AIM and this was
• 55:41
  launched in 1997, so early 2000s, especially among teens
• 55:47
  and college students, reaching more than 61 million users at
• 55:50
  its peak. Man, AOL, dude, that was such a
• 55:52
  vibe. That was such such a time in my
• 55:55
  life, man throwback I I, I don't want to divert this, but early
• 55:59
  2000s level adoption of Bitcoin. If you compare that to the
• 56:06
  Internet, I think that directionally is correct.
• 56:10
  So I don't know about these numbers here.
• 56:12
  Oh, here, actually, you can see it yeah, 2001.
• 56:14
  Look at that all right, so the top chart here is the timeline
• 56:18
  of the Internet adoption from 92 to 2006.
• 56:21
  The bottom line is crypto, you know the gross word of crypto
• 56:25
  adoption here. So they're saying that the
• 56:30
  levels we are right now, Bitcoin adoption is at a 2001 level and
• 56:35
  it's higher than it was for the Internet.
• 56:36
  How much has our lives changed? Well, some of you guys, you
• 56:39
  know, we're, we're barely born then, I'm guessing.
• 56:43
  But in the last 24 years, the Internet has fundamentally
• 56:47
  shifted everything of our lives. And so I think the next 24
• 56:51
  years, that's why I keep saying the next 16 years are going to
• 56:54
  be crazy in Bitcoin because it's going to fundamentally transform
• 56:56
  everything about our lives. And you can see here 2034
• 56:59
  billion crypto users, So a 4X in adoption here in five years.
• 57:05
  I don't know, that sounds that sounds kind of bullish to me.
• 57:08
  Now I do want to kind of add a little bit here 'cause I did see
• 57:10
  some great charge rivers killing it, guys, low key rivers
• 57:13
  absolutely killing it here. What I've been saying to my
• 57:18
  friends and and personal, you know, my family and people that
• 57:22
  asked me in in person, and I say it on the show, like, I think
• 57:25
  this is the safest time to be buying Bitcoin.
• 57:27
  It it's like with it's very clearly the safest time to be
• 57:30
  buying. I would say you're still early.
• 57:32
  Hey, you're not like, you know, super early in the adoption of
• 57:37
  the Internet level, but you're still early in the adoption of
• 57:40
  Bitcoin in the grand scheme of things.
• 57:42
  Like if you guys are old like me and you were on AIM, that's
• 57:47
  where you are. Like we didn't have AIM on our
• 57:50
  iPhones, you know, now we just instant message everyone around
• 57:53
  the world. Now we're interconnected
• 57:55
  completely when it comes to the Internet.
• 57:57
  But let's break this down. 20 months of business Bitcoin
• 58:00
  adoption really showing that we we are in this safest time to be
• 58:05
  buying Bitcoin. Anyone out there that's saying,
• 58:07
  oh you know, it's still risky it's too volatile you really
• 58:12
  don't know what you're talking about.
• 58:13
  This is the safest time to be buying Bitcoin.
• 58:14
  So this comparison from January 2024 to August of 2025, the
• 58:20
  market cap of Bitcoin went from $815 billion to 2.24 trillion
• 58:25
  insane the number of known business Bitcoin holdings.
• 58:29
  The number of Bitcoin held by businesses was 510,000 Bitcoin
• 58:33
  to 1.23 million Bitcoin. There was regulatory uncertainty
• 58:38
  where 22% of businesses had concerns over Bitcoin holdings.
• 58:42
  Now it's broad based bipartisan support for Bitcoin at the
• 58:45
  federal and the state level in basically every jurisdiction,
• 58:49
  accounting and tax clarity. 78% of businesses had concerns over
• 58:53
  holding Bitcoin for tax purposes.
• 58:55
  Now we are starting to see the SEC literally today drop some
• 59:00
  new, I don't know, press release about they're going to push
• 59:04
  through these new accounting rules.
• 59:07
  We're seeing that we're seeing bipartisan, a push for the
• 59:11
  Clarity Act to, to get dropped in 2025.
• 59:15
  Institutional acceptance to this is like the biggest thing going
• 59:17
  on right now. The ETFs, the corporate
• 59:19
  treasuries, the even Jamie Dimon has to kind of eat, eat crow
• 59:24
  here and, and embrace Bitcoin. Some of the biggest companies in
• 59:27
  the world are embracing Bitcoin. We have countries around the
• 59:30
  world embracing Bitcoin and it it's absolutely insane.
• 59:33
  So companies with Bitcoin holdings in January of 2024,
• 59:37
  global public companies 39 S&P 500 companies 1 Fortune 500
• 59:41
  companies 2. As of last month, we have 158
• 59:47
  public companies, four companies in the S&P 503, Fortune 500
• 59:52
  companies. When you're going through it,
• 59:55
  it, it, it feels like things are happening very slowly.
• 59:58
  And now you're you're in hindsight, you can see these
• 1:00:02
  things are happening extremely fast.
• 1:00:05
  And I do want to end it. You guys yell at me about memes
• 1:00:07
  here. So here you guys could read the
• 1:00:10
  meme, you guys could pause it, read the meme.
• 1:00:12
  But we have, you know, pomp tweeting this.
• 1:00:15
  Eventually everyone understands Bitcoin.
• 1:00:17
  You are still early. The world is waking up to this
• 1:00:20
  Bitcoin thing and it's doing a public perception of Bitcoin
• 1:00:23
  before 2024 and after 2024, which is very interesting.
• 1:00:26
  When you connect these two kind of charts here, what you're
• 1:00:30
  seeing is like people, people just love winners and bitcoins
• 1:00:34
  winning. And you know, you have everyone
• 1:00:37
  switching up from Jay Powell, Donald Trump, Larry Fink, Jamie
• 1:00:40
  Dimon, Mark Cuban, even Saylor himself.
• 1:00:42
  They are now all pro Bitcoin in some way, in in some semblance
• 1:00:47
  of a way are adopting Bitcoin or rather embracing Bitcoin.
• 1:00:51
  So it's to save the time to be adopting Bitcoin.
• 1:00:54
  I do like the idea of Bitcoin being at a 2001 level of the
• 1:00:57
  Internet adoption. We'll see what's happening, but
• 1:01:00
  it still feels early. This feels directionally right.
• 1:01:03
  Luke, what would you say about this?
• 1:01:05
  Well, first of all, you think there's a billion quote, UN
• 1:01:07
  quote crypto users of of wait, crypto users of crypto, I guess.
• 1:01:14
  So I was trying to earn my keep in the background Opti, I've
• 1:01:17
  done some back checking. I think it actually is
• 1:01:19
  directionally correct that we're at least close to a billion
• 1:01:23
  users of quote UN quote crypto. Again, we know that there's
• 1:01:27
  somewhere around 50 to 100 million people who actually hold
• 1:01:32
  Bitcoin on chain in their own wallet.
• 1:01:35
  So I know that that data's pretty accurate.
• 1:01:37
  It's not bad. Again, nobody has the real data
• 1:01:40
  because Bitcoin's pseudominous. I don't think I said that word
• 1:01:43
  right. But if you've got about 50 to
• 1:01:45
  100 million people holding Bitcoin on chain, maybe we've
• 1:01:48
  got about two to 300 million people holding Bitcoin through
• 1:01:51
  an exchange. And I've been looking at this
• 1:01:53
  data for a little while now. You can see as of June 2023,
• 1:01:58
  there's about 500 million quote UN quote crypto owners.
• 1:02:03
  And I kind of cross reference this with a few different
• 1:02:07
  sources and it looks as if maybe a billion is directionally
• 1:02:11
  correct to where we are right now.
• 1:02:12
  So I think if you run the math softy, if you've got a billion
• 1:02:17
  users, there's about 8 billion people on the planet, it means
• 1:02:20
  we're somewhere around, you know, that 10 to 15% of the
• 1:02:24
  range. What's that?
• 1:02:26
  You said 8 billion, Did I hear that correctly 8?
• 1:02:29
  Billion people in the planet. If we've got nearly a billion
• 1:02:31
  users of crypto, we're at about. Oh, OK, yeah, I was like, wait,
• 1:02:35
  dude, you're tripping, all right?
• 1:02:37
  I heard that wrong. Not yet.
• 1:02:39
  It's not 2039 yet, but I think you extrapolate out these trends
• 1:02:44
  and if you consider that Bitcoin is, you know, it's a technology
• 1:02:49
  and I think like the original chart that you started with Opti
• 1:02:52
  from BTC Archive, if you just extrapolate that Fords,
• 1:02:56
  Bitcoin's probably going to hit penetration in the mid twenty
• 1:02:59
  30s, maybe late twenty 30s. And I think this is where a lot
• 1:03:03
  of these models start to get broken.
• 1:03:05
  Your power laws get broken, your diminishing returns get broken.
• 1:03:09
  That's because bitcoins, it's an exponential asset and it's going
• 1:03:12
  to get adopted in an exponential curve.
• 1:03:14
  I think it's as simple as that. Yeah, 100%.
• 1:03:17
  I mean, we've seen this play out before, right?
• 1:03:20
  And here we are if and this one, it's actually interesting Look
• 1:03:24
  at this. If Bitcoin is being adopted
• 1:03:27
  faster than the Internet, that's that's literally like a straight
• 1:03:33
  line upwards. I don't know, sounds bullish.
• 1:03:37
  Sounds bullish to me. Sounds bullish to me also.
• 1:03:39
  Before we move on though, and Luke and I kind of just shoot
• 1:03:43
  the shit over what's going on in the price.
• 1:03:45
  Shouts out to everyone in the chat.
• 1:03:47
  I didn't realize everyone was also on AIM and it's called AIM.
• 1:03:51
  It's not called aim, bro. Like you must have been you must
• 1:03:54
  you must have been a Gen. Xer.
• 1:03:55
  It was AIM to us kids. I was like what what 2001,
• 1:03:59
  11/10/13, something like that when I was on it, maybe a little
• 1:04:05
  older, but it was AIM. Apparently everyone has memories
• 1:04:10
  of being on AIM as well. Man, we're all we're dude, we're
• 1:04:13
  all unk status, man. I know Luke's never been on AIM.
• 1:04:16
  He's, he's a young and he's a, he's a zillennial over here.
• 1:04:20
  He's still a baby, but man, what a what a throwback.
• 1:04:23
  Everyone in the chat. We, we all live the AIM era.
• 1:04:26
  ANYWAYS, that's totally different topic.
• 1:04:28
  Let's get into the culture and we we will chat about I I've
• 1:04:32
  it's been a minute since I had Luke on here and I did do I'm
• 1:04:37
  not, I'm not going to name him directly, but you guys know who
• 1:04:41
  I'm talking about. I did an interview with another
• 1:04:43
  Australian and you guys are diametrically opposed here and
• 1:04:47
  we called it a FUD Buster episode.
• 1:04:49
  So we're just going to we're just going to chat about
• 1:04:51
  Bitcoin. We're we're going to get a pulse
• 1:04:53
  on how bullish Luke is here. So you already know he's going
• 1:04:56
  to say an even more bullish prediction then What was your
• 1:04:59
  last one, $7 billion per big one?
• 1:05:02
  Just the math, baby. It's just the math.
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  All right, so it looks like there there's some Zoomers in
• 1:07:14
  the chat that don't know what AIM is.
• 1:07:16
  That's that's crazy. But everyone else, we're
• 1:07:18
  seemingly all grew up at the same era.
• 1:07:21
  Dude, hold on. Sorry Luke, you don't know what
• 1:07:24
  this is, but Skype? Have you ever heard of Skype?
• 1:07:29
  I know that one. OK, all right, so we're not that
• 1:07:31
  old here. We're not that old here.
• 1:07:34
  OK? Anyways, anyways, man, wow, I'm
• 1:07:38
  having, I'm having an unk flashback here of AIM days.
• 1:07:42
  Man, that that's crazy. All right, Luke, where should we
• 1:07:47
  take this? Where should we start from?
• 1:07:50
  Bust the FUD, Busters. Yeah, I know.
• 1:07:53
  I'm just which one do I want to start with?
• 1:07:55
  Let's start with paper. Bitcoin summer there's been the
• 1:08:01
  narrative right now of, hey, you know, there's been a lot of
• 1:08:04
  trolling on this idea of like it wasn't paper Bitcoin summer, it
• 1:08:07
  was actually whale selling, which I think we have data for.
• 1:08:11
  This was paper Bitcoin summer a bad meme?
• 1:08:17
  Is it happening? What's your thoughts on this?
• 1:08:20
  So I think it's both. I think there's obviously people
• 1:08:24
  selling a lot of Bitcoin. I cover it on my channel nearly
• 1:08:26
  every day as well, and we cover it on simply nearly every day.
• 1:08:29
  It is true that long term holders have sold 1,000,000
• 1:08:33
  coins over the past 18 months, but I just think there's more
• 1:08:37
  than that. I just think what happened in
• 1:08:39
  2022 is most likely to be happening again like in 2021 and
• 1:08:43
  2022. What was the narrative?
• 1:08:46
  They said OK, block fi and FTX. It is impossible that they would
• 1:08:52
  be re hypothecating Bitcoin. Come on, trust Sam Bankman
• 1:08:56
  Freed. He's donating millions of
• 1:08:58
  dollars to the government. We see him photographed with the
• 1:09:01
  government all around the world. Did he even did Sam Bankman
• 1:09:04
  Freed have a meeting with Jerome Powell?
• 1:09:05
  I think he might have back in the day again, I'm not sure, but
• 1:09:08
  I'm pretty sure that's true. Everybody was like, there is no
• 1:09:11
  way but the new whiz kids Sam Bankman free would be doing
• 1:09:15
  anything sketchy at FTX. They're the largest exchange in
• 1:09:18
  the world. They've got a market cap of 10s
• 1:09:20
  of billions of dollars. Guess what happened?
• 1:09:24
  Well, when the tide went out, we found out that he was not only
• 1:09:27
  swimming naked, but he had paper sold 80,000 Bitcoin.
• 1:09:31
  And I, I think what I'm seeing is that the, the people who are
• 1:09:35
  the biggest paper Bitcoin deniers, the people who are
• 1:09:40
  trusting individuals, I think that's a good way to frame it.
• 1:09:43
  They're just very trusting. They trust a lot of the official
• 1:09:46
  narratives and a lot of the previous narratives that they
• 1:09:48
  were wrong about that just conveniently swept that under
• 1:09:52
  the rug. So again, I like to, I don't,
• 1:09:55
  I'm not afraid of being called an idiot and looking like a
• 1:09:58
  conspiracy theorist for multiple years and being quote UN quote
• 1:10:02
  wrong in the public for multiple years and have that unpopular
• 1:10:06
  opinion, but I will voice it if I think it's true.
• 1:10:09
  And in 2021 and 2020, I was called a nut case for saying
• 1:10:13
  that, you know, if, if you don't know where the yield is coming
• 1:10:15
  from, you are the yield. Don't trust Celsius block fi Sam
• 1:10:19
  Bankman fridge. Again, I was called a nut case
• 1:10:22
  for years. People were saying, look at my
• 1:10:23
  FTX gains, bro, I I'm up by so much.
• 1:10:25
  Look at my lunar gains. Oh, my lunar gains are
• 1:10:28
  incredible. You're missing out.
• 1:10:29
  You Bitcoin Maximus, you're essentially a what did they call
• 1:10:33
  me a Neanderthal? You're a Neanderthal.
• 1:10:35
  You're scared of technology. You don't evolve.
• 1:10:38
  And again, I just think there are warning signs there.
• 1:10:40
  I think back in the day I was screaming about the fact that
• 1:10:44
  Sam Bankman Freed was trashing proof of work.
• 1:10:48
  He was saying Bitcoins, old tech, proof of stakes, the
• 1:10:50
  future. And I just think the same red
• 1:10:53
  flags are evident today. I just don't trust Brian
• 1:10:56
  Armstrong or Larry Fink. Larry Fink has infamously said
• 1:11:01
  that markets don't like free markets.
• 1:11:04
  They trust totalitarianism more than free markets.
• 1:11:08
  Larry Fink has said Bitcoin's nothing but an index of money
• 1:11:11
  laundering. I just don't think I, I, I just
• 1:11:13
  don't fully trust Larry Fink's Come to Jesus 180 pivot over the
• 1:11:19
  past 18 months. I think he's still certainly
• 1:11:22
  capable of pulling the rug or let's just say not being an
• 1:11:28
  individual who you should be trusting your Bitcoin with.
• 1:11:31
  And I've said this from day one, I just don't think we should be
• 1:11:34
  trusting Brian Armstrong, Larry Fink, BlackRock.
• 1:11:38
  I think there's enough. What do they say?
• 1:11:41
  Where there's smoke, there's fire.
• 1:11:43
  I think considering the facts BlackRock has in their original
• 1:11:48
  ETF filing with Bitcoin that says, oh, if there's
• 1:11:52
  hypothetically a hard fork, there's no obligation that we
• 1:11:55
  choose the most economic chain of Bitcoin.
• 1:11:58
  Red flag. Even in 2024, late 2024,
• 1:12:02
  BlackRock published this 3 minutes.
• 1:12:04
  It was supposed to be this bullish advertisement of
• 1:12:07
  Bitcoin. And then in the very fine print
• 1:12:09
  of the video, BlackRock said it was a caveat and it said,
• 1:12:13
  disclaimer, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin's 21
• 1:12:16
  million hard cap will stay that way forever.
• 1:12:19
  Again, red flag. Again, what else happened?
• 1:12:22
  Coinbase was the sole custodian for Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF.
• 1:12:27
  All of the experts in the gurus, Eric Balkunis included, came out
• 1:12:31
  and said do not trust the conspiracy theorists.
• 1:12:34
  BlackRock would never engage into anything shady.
• 1:12:38
  If there was ever a paper Bitcoin concern between Coinbase
• 1:12:42
  and BlackRock, there would be very clear signs of BlackRock
• 1:12:46
  moving away from Coinbase. What happened months later?
• 1:12:49
  Yeah, BlackRock said. You know what?
• 1:12:51
  We're actually going to divert some of our holdings away from
• 1:12:54
  Coinbase to a firm that is 15 times smaller than Coinbase.
• 1:12:59
  So again, I'm just seeing red flag, red flag, red flag here.
• 1:13:04
  And this is just, this is just waiting evidence.
• 1:13:07
  And I just feel like, again, I feel like the 2021 Bitcoin
• 1:13:12
  maximalist Neanderthal like I was four years ago.
• 1:13:16
  And I just, all I'm saying is just do not trust Coinbase or
• 1:13:19
  BlackRock. The same narratives are around
• 1:13:22
  Blackrock's the largest asset manager in the world.
• 1:13:23
  Coinbase is a multi what $100 billion market cap company if
• 1:13:29
  not 10s of billions. Trust them, they're regulated.
• 1:13:32
  Well guys I don't know. I think I've seen this game
• 1:13:34
  before. They said the same thing about
• 1:13:36
  Blockfy and FTX so I think. Well, well, also Enron.
• 1:13:42
  Yeah, Enron. Yeah.
• 1:13:44
  Just because something is big and regulated doesn't mean you
• 1:13:47
  should trust them. This is the history of money,
• 1:13:49
  guys. So again, I think there is truth
• 1:13:53
  to both sides. Yes, long term holders have sold
• 1:13:56
  1,000,000 coins, but that doesn't mean that there is not
• 1:13:59
  paper Bitcoin games going on right now.
• 1:14:01
  I don't. It's very difficult to have
• 1:14:03
  proof of it is happening before it actually happens.
• 1:14:06
  But there is a lot of red flags here.
• 1:14:09
  So that's all I'm going to say. I'm going to stick to my
• 1:14:11
  unpopular opinions and I'm going to continue to voice them
• 1:14:14
  because I think it's just dangerous to have Bitcoin on an
• 1:14:16
  exchange. Well, 100% I, I, I, I'd agree
• 1:14:20
  with this 100% at least that last point.
• 1:14:22
  And, and hey, like, I am as skeptical as anyone else is.
• 1:14:28
  I just think it's a little early to be playing these dumb games.
• 1:14:31
  But it I don't think it's a, it's a, it's above their
• 1:14:35
  morality to do that, just to put it lightly.
• 1:14:38
  OK, next one, Luke, you and I have gone back and forth on the
• 1:14:43
  idea of Bitcoin on exchanges. I know you've been getting
• 1:14:47
  trolled on it on Twitter because as we've seen, there's been
• 1:14:51
  hundreds of thousands of coins that have waken up that were
• 1:14:55
  dormant that are now hitting the exchanges.
• 1:14:57
  And so the main contention is you're like the, the Bitcoin on
• 1:15:02
  exchanges are going down. It's it's been at 2.3 million.
• 1:15:05
  It's lost. I don't, I forget what the
• 1:15:06
  number is, but like 600,000 plus coins.
• 1:15:10
  And then the other side is like, it's been at 2.3 million for as
• 1:15:14
  long as I've been in Bitcoin. The, the exchanges are never
• 1:15:17
  going to run out of Bitcoin. I know you've been in going back
• 1:15:20
  and forth Twitter threads on this.
• 1:15:22
  So who's right on this? What, what is the, what's the
• 1:15:26
  take here? I mean, I come from, I think at
• 1:15:28
  any price, we'll see Bitcoin wake up and we'll hit the
• 1:15:31
  exchanges, though I do also see that exchanges are kind of
• 1:15:35
  getting, you know, withdrawn of Bitcoin.
• 1:15:39
  But I I just don't believe that the exchanges will ever quote UN
• 1:15:44
  quote run out of Bitcoin. I think there will always be a
• 1:15:46
  seller at whatever price. Yes, some prices will have less
• 1:15:49
  sellers, But what what's your take on this?
• 1:15:52
  Is there new data for you? Are you just digging your heels
• 1:15:55
  and like the exchanges are going to have 500 bitcoins soon?
• 1:15:58
  Yep, they're going to have 500 bitcoins soon.
• 1:16:01
  I I think the date is pretty clear on this.
• 1:16:03
  Like I think if you by any chart you look at the number of
• 1:16:07
  Bitcoin on spot exchanges or OTC exchanges is being drained.
• 1:16:11
  This is a nine year chart of Bitcoin on OTC desks.
• 1:16:15
  It is down 70% since its 2021 peak.
• 1:16:19
  Where we saw around 500,000 Bitcoin on OTC disks, there's
• 1:16:24
  150,000 today. Let's move on to the OTC spot
• 1:16:28
  exchanges. This is down 35% since 2022.
• 1:16:32
  Again, that was only a three-year chart.
• 1:16:34
  So let's zoom out Bitcoin exchange balance.
• 1:16:37
  That's not my favorite chart. There's actually better charts
• 1:16:40
  that show like a 15 year history of Bitcoin on exchanges.
• 1:16:45
  But it's really straightforward. I, I mean, it's, it's I, it is,
• 1:16:50
  it baffles me that people say there is no supply suffocation.
• 1:16:54
  And the only people saying that right now, again, they're
• 1:16:57
  BlackRock and Coinbase trusters. They're people saying that.
• 1:17:01
  BlackRock and Coinbase respecters, Yeah.
• 1:17:06
  Literally they these the, and again, I've gone back and forth
• 1:17:10
  on this topic with lots of people and their logic is there
• 1:17:15
  is no supply suffocation because the coin base on coin base
• 1:17:19
  custody is technically still with coin base.
• 1:17:22
  So even though Coin Base is holding hundreds of thousands of
• 1:17:27
  coins for large public corporations and ETFs and a lot
• 1:17:32
  of entities who say they're not going to sell for 100 years and
• 1:17:36
  entities who have proof of not selling for five years, the
• 1:17:41
  supply shock deniers will say you have to Add all of the
• 1:17:46
  Bitcoin in Coinbase custody to the total Bitcoin on exchanges.
• 1:17:50
  And when you do that, there is still a clear trend of Bitcoin
• 1:17:54
  leaving exchanges for five years.
• 1:17:56
  It's not as dramatic and pronounced as the one that I
• 1:18:00
  showed, but there is still a clear downtrend over five years.
• 1:18:03
  And I just don't, I think that the Bitcoin held in, for
• 1:18:07
  example, Michael Saylor's treasury is just as liquid as
• 1:18:11
  the Bitcoin on a spot exchange of degen swapping it for crypto
• 1:18:15
  NFTS and stuff. So the only people saying that
• 1:18:19
  there is no supply shock. Firstly, they're wrong because
• 1:18:22
  their own charts show that there is a gradual and admittedly more
• 1:18:27
  steady decrease in coins on exchanges over the past three
• 1:18:30
  years. But their assumptions I'm wildly
• 1:18:33
  wrong in my opinion. I just don't think Coinbase
• 1:18:36
  custody Bitcoin is just as tradable as a a Bitcoin on a
• 1:18:40
  spot exchange. Yeah, that last point, I I
• 1:18:43
  totally agree. And and we know first from
• 1:18:45
  sailors perspective that that is the case.
• 1:18:48
  If you know, we know his coins are being held at Coinbase, but
• 1:18:52
  he's very public about the fact that he's never going to sell
• 1:18:57
  those coins. And so I would argue that you
• 1:18:59
  can't really keep that data as the, you know, the total coins
• 1:19:04
  on Coinbase, even if it is there.
• 1:19:06
  I I get where they're coming from, but I do agree with you on
• 1:19:08
  that point. Also, I've never seen I've seen
• 1:19:12
  the the exchange chart like the blue one.
• 1:19:15
  I've seen that chart all the time.
• 1:19:17
  But when you look at the other the like the zoomed out version,
• 1:19:21
  that one is a lot more convincing of your narrative of
• 1:19:25
  just how much coin has left the exchange.
• 1:19:27
  It's literally like barding that the exchange, the Bitcoin on
• 1:19:30
  exchanges is barding on that chart and from let's see which
• 1:19:34
  one is this. This is the most zoomed out data
• 1:19:38
  we're going to get. This is like literally 16 years
• 1:19:41
  of Bitcoin history of Bitcoin on exchanges.
• 1:19:45
  And if you draw a big fat red line here at 2020, I mean, I
• 1:19:50
  mean to, to claim that there is no supply suffocation, come on.
• 1:19:54
  I, I mean, it's down by 1,000,000 coins. 30% of the
• 1:19:57
  Bitcoin has left exchanges over the past five years.
• 1:20:00
  This is as clear as day. I think the one number that
• 1:20:04
  people get stuck on, because I have heard that narrative as
• 1:20:07
  well, Opti, that, oh, there's been 2.3 million Bitcoin on
• 1:20:10
  exchanges for years now. That's because there are
• 1:20:12
  multiple different estimates of how much Bitcoin there is on
• 1:20:16
  exchanges. This chart says it's 2.3, but
• 1:20:19
  there are other charts and data providers that say it's like
• 1:20:22
  1.92 million two .1. But I think if you just look at
• 1:20:28
  the aggregate of all of those data providers the the trend
• 1:20:31
  over the past five years, it's obvious.
• 1:20:34
  I mean, that smacks you in the face if you draw a line right
• 1:20:37
  here at 2020. Yeah, that's, I think that data
• 1:20:43
  right there is proving what you just said about Sailors coin
• 1:20:50
  because right Sailor got in Bitcoin like 2020 in force and
• 1:20:55
  he's basically bought a million coins himself.
• 1:20:59
  And so you can't actually say that.
• 1:21:01
  Yeah, it's on Coinbase Prime custody, therefore it's on
• 1:21:04
  Coinbase Exchange. He's like, he's literally, he
• 1:21:09
  ate all of that himself. That that's basically just
• 1:21:11
  Sailor and taking it from the exchange portion or OTC portion
• 1:21:16
  and putting it in his own cold storage.
• 1:21:18
  So that is pretty interesting there.
• 1:21:21
  I think that chart does disprove that theory, like very clearly.
• 1:21:25
  And all, all I'm going to say is like a lot of the people who
• 1:21:29
  I've interacted with, who again, I've got respect for who, who
• 1:21:32
  say that there is no supply shock, you know, trust Coinbase,
• 1:21:35
  trust BlackRock, there is no paper Bitcoin.
• 1:21:38
  All I'm going to say is they're very trusting of our other
• 1:21:41
  narratives in, you know, in the world that are very clearly
• 1:21:45
  incorrect. So I, I think if you just think
• 1:21:47
  from first principles, I wouldn't be trusting, Let's just
• 1:21:52
  say I, I'm just not, I'm just not trusting of narratives that
• 1:21:55
  have been proven to be wrong. Like again, I wouldn't be living
• 1:21:58
  in the UK and Australia right now and saying I trust my
• 1:22:01
  government to reverse course and make my country safe and, you
• 1:22:04
  know, prosperous. I, I will just say that the
• 1:22:08
  supply shock deniers people happily reside in, in the UK or
• 1:22:14
  Australia saying I believe in democracy, my vote matters, I
• 1:22:18
  trust my government. So just some more anecdotal data
• 1:22:21
  there. Yo, chill, Yo chill.
• 1:22:27
  OK, All right, last one. And this one's a little more
• 1:22:30
  personal. I think you and I have chatted
• 1:22:34
  about this offline I I I think of the last time we chatted
• 1:22:38
  about this, the price did kind of dump, but is the bull run
• 1:22:44
  over have we double topped? What is your take on this and
• 1:22:48
  the show with some bullish stuff here the people want to know how
• 1:22:51
  we get to 7 Billy per coin it's. A snap, baby, it's a snap.
• 1:22:57
  So I has Bitcoin topped already. I think there's a less than 5%
• 1:23:02
  chance that bitcoins topped. But again, I don't have the the
• 1:23:05
  hubris to say that I, I know exactly where the price of
• 1:23:08
  Bitcoin is going. Like some of the analysts who
• 1:23:11
  who will try to deny that there's a paper Bitcoin attack.
• 1:23:14
  They will say, oh, I you can't be trusted to read the data.
• 1:23:20
  I am the expert only I have a monopoly on the truth.
• 1:23:23
  Again, I get really worried when I see that rhetoric around any
• 1:23:28
  data. So again, has Bitcoin top.
• 1:23:30
  I don't think so. My base case probably hasn't
• 1:23:33
  changed in probably at least 12 to 18 months.
• 1:23:36
  I think there's my base case is I believe that we're probably
• 1:23:40
  going to break diminishing returns this cycle.
• 1:23:42
  So I think there's a 50% chance we go above 250 in the next kind
• 1:23:45
  of nine months. Who knows when that top's going
• 1:23:48
  to be? Is it going to be November?
• 1:23:49
  Is it going to be April 2026? I think there's there's data for
• 1:23:55
  both of those to be true. So I don't know where the top's
• 1:23:58
  going to be, but I think there's a good 50% chance that we we are
• 1:24:01
  above 250. And I actually think right now
• 1:24:03
  it's more likely that Bitcoin tops above 500,000 than it has
• 1:24:09
  already topped. So that's kind of how I feel.
• 1:24:11
  I haven't really changed my opinions on Friday.
• 1:24:13
  Yeah, let it go. Just to repeat guys, Luke just
• 1:24:20
  said he thinks it's more likely we go above 500K per coin then
• 1:24:25
  we have double top. I don't know how much more
• 1:24:27
  bullish we can get than that. That's that's that's some bull
• 1:24:32
  sauce here. I like that.
• 1:24:35
  I had another question while you were talking and I.
• 1:24:37
  How about while you think of that question, Opti?
• 1:24:39
  How about you? How do you feel about the next
• 1:24:41
  six months? Have we talked?
• 1:24:43
  No, Hell no. Not at all.
• 1:24:45
  Like this doesn't make sense to me.
• 1:24:47
  I don't think we topped at all. Yes, it's been a slow beginning
• 1:24:51
  of 2025, but I, I don't think we've topped there.
• 1:24:55
  There are moments and times when we do kind of drop, you know,
• 1:24:59
  this morning, to be honest, like this drop back down from 1:12 to
• 1:25:03
  1:10 and I didn't flinch at all. But when what was it last week
• 1:25:08
  or was it Monday? I think it was Monday when we
• 1:25:10
  dropped to one O 8 there. I'm not I am not gonna lie.
• 1:25:13
  There's a part of me was like, man, dude, did we just get back
• 1:25:16
  into bear market territory? Like sheesh.
• 1:25:22
  But no, I I don't think it's over.
• 1:25:23
  I think it's just beginning. I think the real fun's gonna
• 1:25:25
  happen end of year again. Historically, Bitcoin makes all
• 1:25:28
  of its moves in like what, 21 days or something like that.
• 1:25:32
  I forget what the number is, like 20-7 days.
• 1:25:34
  It's like 3-4 weeks. I don't know, actually, I think
• 1:25:36
  it's like 12 days, right? Or something.
• 1:25:38
  I forget what it is. I, I, I, I haven't looked at
• 1:25:41
  those numbers. But yeah, I think Bitcoin,
• 1:25:44
  Bitcoin's going to make all the moves it needs to in 3-4 weeks.
• 1:25:49
  But I do think it's going to probably continue into 2026.
• 1:25:53
  I'm trying to think of what question I had.
• 1:25:55
  It was a good question. I think 200K by end of year is
• 1:25:59
  kind of pretty standard. I mean what is it?
• 1:26:01
  October average returns 20%, November average returns 40% and
• 1:26:06
  December's on average like a 5% return.
• 1:26:10
  If you actually look at the bull market numbers, it's even more
• 1:26:12
  crazier than that. So just see if history repeats
• 1:26:15
  are at 200 by end of year. Let's go.
• 1:26:18
  Well, we'll wrap up this. We'll wrap up there.
• 1:26:21
  I think that was bullish enough. If I remember my question, I'll
• 1:26:24
  ask you some other time. Anyways, Luke, it's always a
• 1:26:28
  pleasure having you on. You know, they're really Nico's
• 1:26:32
  really, you know, playing with fire when he puts 2 super bull
• 1:26:36
  tarded people on the show. We need someone to kind of reel
• 1:26:40
  us in here and there because as everyone's saying, I'm I'm their
• 1:26:44
  financial macro advisor now. So guys, do not, we're not
• 1:26:48
  financial advisors here. This is just entertainment.
• 1:26:51
  This is this is what we think. But yeah, don't, don't put,
• 1:26:56
  don't, don't gamble with your savings just cause Luke and I
• 1:26:59
  are stupidly bullish. But anyways, Luke, thanks for
• 1:27:02
  coming on, man. It's always a pleasure.
• 1:27:04
  Thanks for having me. Oh, wait, oh, wait, oh, wait.
• 1:27:07
  Almost forgot. OK, all right, got oh, I almost
• 1:27:09
  forgot. OK, the last thing we're going
• 1:27:12
  to do last thing we're going to do is we got to give you some
• 1:27:14
  sets. So when you go into when you
• 1:27:18
  sign up for Bitcoin, well, you go into the rewards here hit the
• 1:27:23
  well points. You got a chance to win a
• 1:27:26
  million sets. So pull out your lightning
• 1:27:28
  wallet. We are giving away free Bitcoin.
• 1:27:31
  I almost forgot today. Today's winner drum roll,
• 1:27:35
  please, is 601 sets. There you go.
• 1:27:39
  I'll leave this up on the screen for a little bit guys.
• 1:27:42
  We love you guys. I will be back tomorrow.
• 1:27:45
  Nico is literally in transit right now.
• 1:27:48
  He's going to be gone tomorrow and actually you're going to be
• 1:27:52
  stuck with me for like the next week.
• 1:27:54
  Niko's Niko's going to be Mia. So it's going to be me.
• 1:27:57
  I'll I'll be holding it down. So you already know we're going
• 1:27:59
  to get extremely bull tarted. We're going to have a good time.
• 1:28:02
  Hopefully the price is pumping. It's going to be fun, man.
• 1:28:05
  Anyways, on that note, peace out guys.
• 1:28:08
  Have a good rest of your day. We will see you tomorrow.
• 1:28:11
  Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
• 1:28:15
  Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
• 1:28:18
  independence.