Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto All-Time Highs Coming🚀Matthew Sigel | VanEck

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Crypto All-Time Highs Coming🚀Matthew Sigel | VanEck · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: My name is Paul Barren. Welcome back in the tech path.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Thanks so much for jumping in today. Before we get started,
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip that will give
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: us a little bit of an insert on what is
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: going on around not only the election results and the
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: impact that's having on crypto. Take a look.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: It's been a good thing so far this week. So
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: you had the crypto industry spend more than two hundred
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: and forty five million dollars, more than two hundred and
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: eighty lawmakers elected to House and Senate seats with a
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: pro crypto stance, but also, as you mentioned, a pro
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: crypto president here who has promised to oust Chair Gensler
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: at the head of the SEC. Separately, you've got Robin
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Hood up twenty four percent. They received a wells notice
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: related to their crypto business that may not materialize in
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: a lawsuit if you have different leadership over at the SEC.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: That is a product of the.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Fact that Donald Trump has made many promises to this industry,
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: one that he will spend money on building out a
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: robust energy production and transmission infrastructure in the US to
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: make it more competitive in AI, and on bitcoin rollback
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: a lot of regulations that are standing in the way
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: of these actors.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: I was just looking at coinbase, so it shares up?
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: Was that right?
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Thirty nine percent just this week?
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: Forty one percent the last five days?
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: Wow?
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, I want to bring on Matthew Siegel coming
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: in from Vanak to kind of break this down and
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: take a look. Hey, I've been watching you out there
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: doing the media tours. Excellent workout there, for sure. I
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: want to get into a little bit about your opinion
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: when you look at not only what happens obviously with
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred, the crypto stocks, you
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: look at micro strategies, Coinbase, many others that have some
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: relevance around bitcoin mining, and then you look at the
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: markets where they are right now, bitcoin reaching an all
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: time high. Do you feel that the crypto market has
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: finally got in a position where they are looking extremely
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: positive for more activity here in the United States?
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: Absolutely, Our conviction in bitcoin and digitalife that has never
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: been higher, especially now that the US has leadership that
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: understands the link between bitcoin, AI and energy and that
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: if we can get back to building energy infrastructure in
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: this country, that the US could swiftly lead in all
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: those sectors. So I think really like the number one
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: positive thing is just the impact on economic growth and
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: dynamism when you stop suing people for breaking rules that
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: have never been written down. And we're already starting to
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: see the positive impact of that. Salona founder Anatotally announced
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: that he'll do their flagship Breakpoint conference in the USA
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: in twenty twenty five, So it's great for US jobs
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: and GDP, and then obviously we think bitcoin is going
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: to be a major beneficiary. We can get into that.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the key here with a lot of
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: the projects that I've been talking to that have had
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: a CLI situation where they don't necessarily understand where the
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: US is going. Yes, there has been some regulation alignment
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: that seems to be in place. Now we might well
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: most likely we'll have a White House administration that's going
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: to be somewhat pro crypto. Before we go further into this,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I want to kind of talk to you a little
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: bit about the strategy that a Trump white House may have, because,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: as we know, Trump has been very vocal around bitcoin. Granted,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: he's launched a handful of NFT projects, so he probably
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: has a little bit of a understanding around digital assets,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: but the number of people that are encircling President Trump
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: right now. They may be all bitcoin. What do you
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: think that digital assets as a whole will get their
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: stake at the table as well with this new administration.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Absolutely. Trump has a DeFi project that he has built
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: on ethereum. He has a very successful NFT project that's
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: gone through several seasons also on ethereum and a layer two.
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: So yeah, he understands that this industry just needs a
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: little space to grow and figure out what are the
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: apps that are going to resonate with users. So we
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: do think bitcoin dominance has probably peaked here. You know,
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: we've seen some of the l ones like eth and
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: Solana perform better. You mentioned the bitcoin minors. Some of
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: that I think is just kind of the speculative forces
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: that are unleashed in anticipation of better policies, and to
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: your point, the devil will be in the details. So far,
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: the early look at personnel I think looks quite positive.
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: So yeah, we'll see.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: I want to get into a tweet that you put out.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: You know, lot of tail winds you're kind of looking
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: at here. China unveils about a one point for trillion debt.
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: Swap Yeah, the point of that tweet was highlighting some
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: money that's going on around the world, most notably in
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: China right now. And when you look at bitcoin and
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: digital assets over the long term, the strongest correlations are
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: a positive correlation with money supply growth, global money supply growth,
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: and a negative relation with the US dollar, the correlation
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: with the NASDAC kind of ebbs and flows depending on
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: the market structure. So, given the fiscal situation in most
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: of the world right now completely unsustainable, the ratings agencies
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: are telegraphing they want a downgrade. Sovereign debt where the
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: government tax revenue is a certain percentage of expenditures, and
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: in the US we've already passed those levels. So our
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: interest costs are more than twenty percent of government tax
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: revenues and that is the limit that S and P
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: at least is signaling that they're going to downgrade. So
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: the Global index had its worst month in October in
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: more than two years. And frankly, we're fielding calls from
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: allocators who are looking to increase their bitcoin exposure. I
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: think they're worried about the fiscal sustainability, They're worried about
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: long term interest rates and the multi decade bull market
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: that seems to have come to an end, and they're
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: observing that many of our former trading partners, now that
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: we've you know, US sanctions are up six hundred percent
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: in the last ten years, those trading partners are starting
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: to look for ways to disintermediate the dollar. I know
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: the mass media hates this story, but foreign exchange reserves
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: US dollar percentage of Ford exchange reserves are at multi
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: decade lows. Bricks countries are talking about building bitcoin mining infrastructure,
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: settling a portion of their global trade in bitcoin. So
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: it is important to you know, embrace this, get ahead
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: of it. We don't want all of our future trading
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: partners trading in a currency that we don't have a
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: significant position in black rock.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Of course, now the ETF is officially bigger than it's
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: go So from the bitcoin side of things, the real
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: question is is what does twenty twenty five look like.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Do you think this just outpaces gold at a clip
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: that is unbelievable. Do you think gold can keep up
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: on this?
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: I don't think gold can keep up in a bitcoin
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: bull market. Volatility profiles are just very different. They're at
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: very different stages of adoption. Gold is very well held
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: by central banks who own roughly eighteen percent weight. Bitcoin
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: is at zero weight, so it's really still a lot
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: of zero to one moments ahead of US for bitcoin
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: in terms of adoption. I'm going to El Salvador next
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: week to have a number of conversations there around how
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: their adoption of legal tender is going. You know, Senator
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: Loomis here in the US has the bill to establish
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: the Bitcoin reserve. You're going to see, I think a
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: close relationship between Trump and President Boukele in El Salvador,
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: and I think you're going to see the US just
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: being more opportunistic about engaging with countries where they are.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Matthew, I want you to take a look at a
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: clip here. This is Tom Lee and he's talking about
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: bitcoin as a reserve asset. Listen to what he has
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: to say.
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: It's going to be very difficult to fix the deficit
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: with just changes in taxes and spending. But it's probably
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: why bitcoin is kind of interesting here because it's potentially
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: a treasury reserve asset, and you know, as if bitcoin
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: rises in price, it actually helps offset the liabilities, which
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: is the deficit.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: So you were at one fifty I think on bitcoin
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: were you but yeah, not necessarily by the end of
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: this year, or I think six.
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: Figures is still possible for it before the end of
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: the year.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: You go, wow, six figures, So one hundred thousand dollars
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: bitcoin Bitcoin, of course trading in the high seventies right now,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: breaking all time highs. What are your thoughts on that?
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Do you feel like we have that kind of bull
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: run that is taking place? First of all, on that
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: question and then your opinion on a reserve asset for
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: the United States.
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think the market top is going to
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: depend on the reality what happens into Q one and
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: Q two, if we see that there is movement at SEC, Treasury,
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: occ all of these agencies. But my mental model for
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: kind of where bitcoin can go over this cycle, if
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: we look back at previous cycles, the smallest ever bitcoin
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: cycle was two thousand percent from the trough to the
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: cycle peak. If we did one thousand percent this time,
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: that would be one hundred eighty K, and I would
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: think that, depending on fundamentals, that could be an end
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: of twenty twenty five type of story. Our medium term
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: target of four hundred K would mean that bitcoin is
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: half the market cap of gold, so that would require
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: a bit more adoption as a reserve asset. That's a
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: medium term target, probably after or the next having but
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: I think to reach that, but you know, there will
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: be some central banks who dip in. We're already seeing
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: a number of nations that are mining bitcoin using the
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: government's own resources. Ethiopia and Kenya are two new countries
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: this year. Argentina is another one. All of them have
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: programs with the IMF, so you can see how bitcoin
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: becomes this negotiating tool when you have kind of an
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: unaccountable global institution that comes in and tells you to
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: raise taxes or they're not going to lend you money.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: Bitcoin is an interesting kind of negotiating tool against that
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: type of external pressure. And then our long term target
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: three million dollars per coin by twenty fifty, very long term.
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: That is equivalent to US sixteen to one six percent
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: compound annual growth rate, and that assumes that bitcoin is
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: widely adopted by central banks, held at about a two
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: percent weight, and that there's a significant amount of global
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: trade that uses bitcoin as the settlement currency.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of market caap dominance now hits a
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: new Altar. I'm high Solana training around two hundred bucks
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: right now, which is a significant up if you look
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: at it, but dominance at point three point eight one percent.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: You look at Solana right now and you consider where
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: it could go and what it looks like by year end,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: but more importantly, I think over the next maybe twenty
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: four months. What is your opinion on Solana and its
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: potential in the future.
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: Yep, So, I mean we've been consistent, Salona Buls. I've
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: been on your show a few times over the last
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: three years talking about it as being, you know, potentially
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: the best and fastest of these open source app stores,
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: the one that could really attract some financial activity that's
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: equivalent to what happens on Nasdaq, just because of the
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: speed of the blockchain. You know, the reality of whether
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: that happens is going to depend somewhat on the details
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: in January. So you know, my guess is that again
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: or will be demoted on day one, There'll be an
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: interim chair of the SEC, maybe it's j Clayton, while
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: Senate you know, works through the confirmation process for whoever
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: the formal pick is, you know, ideally SAB one twenty one,
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: which is the law that kept banks from holding crypto
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: on their balance sheets or customer crypto on their balance sheets.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: I would hope that that's going to be repeeled within
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: one quarter, and I would expect that additional ETFs could
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: be approved perhaps within two quarters of the new administration
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: taking power, and I think that would really cement Solana's
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: status as a commodity. But alongside that, you know, I
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: think we'll also get staking for ethereum ETFs. I think
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: we'll get in kind creation and redemption for both BTC
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: and e ETFs, which will really make these ETFs much
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: more tax efficient, enhance the liquidity. And then we're kind
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: of waiting on what happens to Fit twenty one, which
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: is the Comprehensive Market Structure Bill, which I think may
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: be dead for now given the red wave. I think
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: the Republicans see an opportunity to get this rewritten. Even
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: the second draft by Senator Haggerty was still quite harsh
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: against DeFi in my opinion, So in order to kind
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: of get to that one hundred and eighty K target
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: and to be in the world where you know, alts
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: are outperforming for the next year and Solana is doing
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: very well, we need that fundamental follow through. I think
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: from the from the regulation will be helpful and that
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: can you know, we've got a Hope trade. Until then
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: there's that Hope's trades can be very good.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Kind of curious with Solana their market cap now
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: one third of Ethereum, do you feel that Solana could
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: be on track to maybe catch Ethereum as a market
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: cap total.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: I think it's definitely possible. You know, the trillion dollar
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: question here is is there going to be one l
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: one that has eighty percent market share? Or are there
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: going to be And that's like in specifically Google search
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: would be one example of an eighty percent eighty percent
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: plus winner, but or are there going to be two
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: or three that share that eighty percent? And if you
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: look at the online advertising market, it's you know a
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: little bit broader there. You've got Facebook and Google that
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: are kind of sharing eighty percent. I'm not sure. I
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: think investors need to own both. And it's definitely possible
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: that that Soul could catch Eth at some point.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Eth has now more than one hundred million an inflow
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: in the ETF. This is an upward of twelve percent
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: on the current move.
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: We've got a lot of views here at VANAC, but
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: my personal view is that ETHBTC has bottomed, that speculation
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: is going to return to this market for the next quarter,
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: and it's not going to ignore ETH given the accessibility
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: that the ETF provides. And the other thing is on
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: the fundamentals. If you just look at which chains are
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: generating fees. ETH had some major market share losses after
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: the Dang Kuhn hard fork that really slashed fees for
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: the L two's and there just wasn't enough activity to
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: make up for those fee cuts. But that dynamic kind
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: of bottomed in early September along with the ETH price,
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: and we've noticed ETH market share pickup quite a bit
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: over the last six weeks.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Gensler is most likely going to be exiting. I mean,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: I would say one hundred percent positive. The real question
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: I have is, and we've been laying this out a
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: couple of times, you've got a few people mark you
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Ada obviously a sitting commissioner now, but you also have
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: guys like Dan Gallagher and others that could be a
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: good position. Even Giancarlo has been thrown in there, the
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: former CFTC guy. What do you guys think, who do
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: you think is going to be potentially the new chair
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: over the SEC.
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: I don't actually think it matters too much. I think
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: there is an overwhelming consensus on the Republican side to
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: reverse all of Gary Ginsli's policies. Wait, it was out
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: this morning talking about that, So I don't think it matters.
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: I think Treasury secretary is a much bigger deal. So
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: there you have Scott Besson, who, according to polymarket, his
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: odds are now above fifty percent. He would be the
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: first ever pro crypto US Treasury secretary. And you cannot
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: underestimate I think what a big deal that is. The
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: guy who's kind of second in those betting odds, John Paulson,
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: kind of well known gold bull, does not like bitcoin.
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: So I'm pleasantly surprised to see besson odds rising even
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: after he gave those pro crypto comments to the FT.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: You look at the current timing seems to be perfect
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: for this market. A little over two trillion right now,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: the likelihood of that going to ten, twenty or even
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: fifty trillion over the next decade. What is van x
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: you know, course, right now in terms of digital assets,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: as all you know from the entire market, the asset class.
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: Sure. Yeah, so we we have about one hundred and
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: ten billion dollars in assets across all asset classes right
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: by now. You know, around two and a half three
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: billion of that is in digital assets. So we're still
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: talking you know, one and less than two percent of
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: our of our assets. Yon van x CEO here thinks
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: that can reach fifteen to twenty percent over a reasonable period.
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: So you can do the math on that and look
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: at our price targets for some of these coins.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the key here right now is how
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: quickly we start to see adoption not only from the
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: US population, but so I think that is going to
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: be a huge opportunity for a lot of investors, and
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: I think for also for a lot of young people
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: that we're really swaying this election to finally get in
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: a position where they can outpace inflation. So that's a
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: big deal going forward for sure. Matthew Siegel from van
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: K thanks again for coming in today. We really appreciate
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: your time. We'll definitely have you back as bitcoin cracks
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: the one hundred k mark. We're looking forward to that one. Thanks, Pam,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for stopping in. Appreciate it all right,
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: so you guys, I will be back in studio today.
• 18:20
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