Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA Round 4 Showdown - Masters | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process | 04/12/26
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Fall systems go clear, we live. We are alive a
- 0:35Speaker 1: little earlier than usual, about four pm Eastern time. The
- 0:40Speaker 1: guys still have what the leaders have ten holes left.
- 0:43Speaker 1: I wanted to get on here talk about, I mean,
- 0:45Speaker 1: how this third round is starting and kind of touch
- 0:49Speaker 1: on how I think it's gonna pan out, and then
- 0:51Speaker 1: obviously get into the rounds four stuff as well. So
- 0:54Speaker 1: Rory definitely looks a little shaky out the gates, Like,
- 0:57Speaker 1: leave a comment, what do you think Rory's gonna end
- 0:59Speaker 1: up doing today? Like, what do you think the lead
- 1:00Speaker 1: will be? My guess is going to be three shots.
- 1:04Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say who's in second. I think it's
- 1:07Speaker 1: gonna be three shot lead. Like even the shots that
- 1:09Speaker 1: he's getting out of jail with they don't He's getting lucky.
- 1:13Speaker 1: He's getting lucky. It's very similar to like his win
- 1:17Speaker 1: at Sawgrass is what is what it feels like? To me?
- 1:22Speaker 1: Like last year at the Masters, he was striping it
- 1:24Speaker 1: all day. This time around, it just like doesn't nearly
- 1:28Speaker 1: look like rounds one and two. I know it's it's
- 1:31Speaker 1: hard for any golfer to sustain it for all four rounds,
- 1:34Speaker 1: but little nerve racking He's been in the mix since
- 1:37Speaker 1: day one at Augusta this week, and we know Rory's
- 1:41Speaker 1: great frontrunner, but does he hang on? I'm going to
- 1:45Speaker 1: say that Rory McRoy does hang on, but I'm also
- 1:49Speaker 1: going to say that this lead shrinks and we get
- 1:51Speaker 1: some real drama tomorrow. Scottie scheffer obviously doing a ton
- 1:54Speaker 1: of great things, had him as our one golfer we
- 1:57Speaker 1: were on after round one, and we went to someone
- 1:59Speaker 1: else after round two, meaning four, Round two and three.
- 2:03Speaker 1: Wish we were nailing Scottie Scheffler today because he definitely
- 2:06Speaker 1: would have paired up with some other nice showdown targets.
- 2:09Speaker 1: Shout out Patrick Cantley. We're on yesterday and not today,
- 2:12Speaker 1: so we were just a day off on those two guys.
- 2:14Speaker 1: But this has been a really fun start two round
- 2:18Speaker 1: three and starting to talk about stats, what that we're
- 2:21Speaker 1: looking for for round four, I'm not gonna pull it
- 2:24Speaker 1: up one because only a few guys are done. But secondly,
- 2:28Speaker 1: it's the exact same thing as round one and two.
- 2:31Speaker 1: The guys who are scoring in an individual round by
- 2:35Speaker 1: round basis are all the golfers who are nuking off
- 2:38Speaker 1: the tee and pairing it with approach play if you
- 2:41Speaker 1: miss the the kind of tidbits I was touching on
- 2:44Speaker 1: from the past shows. It's the combination of being long
- 2:48Speaker 1: enough to have the ability to gain off the tee
- 2:52Speaker 1: I mean, sorry to gain on approach. If you are
- 2:55Speaker 1: well back, you simply just can't gain on approach at
- 2:59Speaker 1: a high rate. Guy can do it for a single
- 3:00Speaker 1: round basis. Guys can do it here and there for
- 3:02Speaker 1: whole by hele basis, Like look at Russell Henley today.
- 3:05Speaker 1: Russell Henley's a perfect candidate of that. But really doing
- 3:08Speaker 1: it sustainably is very, very tough around a golf course
- 3:12Speaker 1: like this, And it's been eighty percent of the scores,
- 3:16Speaker 1: eighty percent of the good scores and a round by
- 3:18Speaker 1: round basis have been nuking off the tee and finding
- 3:22Speaker 1: the proach play from big distance off of the tee.
- 3:26Speaker 1: So let's look at let's bring screen up, look at
- 3:29Speaker 1: some wave split action for round three so far. Obviously
- 3:33Speaker 1: there's still a ton of golf three played, but it's
- 3:35Speaker 1: very interesting. I said that there's gonna be no difference
- 3:39Speaker 1: really in weather. Obviously this is gonna change. It's minus
- 3:42Speaker 1: three and minus point five in the morning. The morning
- 3:44Speaker 1: is whatever is whatever, probably just about done. But early
- 3:48Speaker 1: out the guys in the PM are scoring. And what
- 3:51Speaker 1: I said yesterday was there's no real difference in weather
- 3:55Speaker 1: from the morning to the afternoon in today's round, but
- 4:00Speaker 1: the player's skill gap is quite different. So therefore I
- 4:04Speaker 1: thought there would be a PM advantage because the players
- 4:06Speaker 1: are simply just better in the PM and there's no
- 4:08Speaker 1: real difference in scoring in difference in weather. So we
- 4:13Speaker 1: see Sam Burns and Ry Mack Whoriy kind of trembling
- 4:16Speaker 1: a little bit. Rory just in the bunker on number seven.
- 4:19Speaker 1: Sam Burns just avoids the bunker on number seven, but
- 4:22Speaker 1: these two are truly dueling it and both showing some punches.
- 4:27Speaker 1: Sam Burns chip on number three and his parse after
- 4:29Speaker 1: that was quite incredible, So shout out Shane. Shane was
- 4:32Speaker 1: one of our core plays in the DFS week long stuff.
- 4:34Speaker 1: So we got some sweats before I get into any
- 4:37Speaker 1: of the rest of the show. The biggest sweat that
- 4:38Speaker 1: I think we got going is Rory Scotty dual forecast
- 4:43Speaker 1: at fifty to one. I gave it out in the
- 4:45Speaker 1: on the play plan, I gave it on a few
- 4:47Speaker 1: other shows, and I just thought the number was far
- 4:49Speaker 1: too long. Rory Scotty dual for how Tonly is absolutely
- 4:53Speaker 1: minting flags. Scotty Rory dual forecast was fifty to one.
- 4:57Speaker 1: I felt that number was far too off what it
- 4:59Speaker 1: should be been at the market. And they're both coming
- 5:01Speaker 1: in in some questionable form. It made too much sense
- 5:04Speaker 1: for them to both not be coming in the best
- 5:06Speaker 1: form to finally duel it out on Sunday. And we
- 5:09Speaker 1: have a real world for that to happen tomorrow. So
- 5:14Speaker 1: is that Scotty, Oh, he's gonna have some trouble on eighteen.
- 5:18Speaker 1: Let's talk some weather for round four because there's some
- 5:22Speaker 1: there's some stuff to talk about here. So here is
- 5:24Speaker 1: the weather forecast for round four. Peep it for Sunday.
- 5:28Speaker 1: It looks fairly benign. In the morning, it's gonna be
- 5:31Speaker 1: gusting a little bit, and then once the leaders te
- 5:34Speaker 1: off around this two o'clock mark, look at this. Look
- 5:37Speaker 1: at these gusts. Everything from eight million hour steady wins
- 5:41Speaker 1: to twenty million hour gus. Not that it's a different direction,
- 5:44Speaker 1: not that it's unsustainable, It is simply just different and
- 5:48Speaker 1: more than we have seen in rounds one, two, and three.
- 5:52Speaker 1: It's been so benign so far to start this golf tournament. Now,
- 5:57Speaker 1: throwing in weather is throwing in wind is changes a
- 6:01Speaker 1: golf course completely. It's not going to necessarily change the
- 6:04Speaker 1: ethos of Augusta National. What we've seen so far the
- 6:06Speaker 1: first three day is but different guys are gonna have
- 6:09Speaker 1: different rounds. With that being said, I'm still looking at
- 6:12Speaker 1: the target of distance and approach, but we can get
- 6:15Speaker 1: a little cheeky with it. We can go with some
- 6:17Speaker 1: guys that are lower own. We can go with some
- 6:18Speaker 1: guys who might not be the highest in terms of
- 6:20Speaker 1: those things because the weather is going to be different. Also,
- 6:23Speaker 1: with that being said, I think this is a real
- 6:25Speaker 1: week for chasers, for playing chasers outside of the top twenty,
- 6:29Speaker 1: outside of the top twenty five to post that back
- 6:32Speaker 1: door top ten and give you those round four showdown
- 6:36Speaker 1: scoring points because we know in showdown round four is
- 6:38Speaker 1: a little different. We have the final round placement points
- 6:41Speaker 1: and some weeks I'm like, I think the top ten
- 6:43Speaker 1: is going to stay pretty similar because of the weather,
- 6:46Speaker 1: the way the course playing. But tomorrow, with that weather forecast,
- 6:50Speaker 1: with the final round pressure, how often do we see
- 6:53Speaker 1: guys around Augusta National eject in the final few groups.
- 6:56Speaker 1: It happens year after year, So I think saying you're
- 7:00Speaker 1: gonna need a few guys from the top of leader
- 7:01Speaker 1: board that are gonna be mainstays and stable and potential chalk.
- 7:04Speaker 1: But I think going with three guys outside of the top
- 7:06Speaker 1: twenty can get you really unique, really different, and they
- 7:09Speaker 1: could easily backdoor a top ten tomorrow, and That's what
- 7:13Speaker 1: I'm going to be looking for for that. So next
- 7:17Speaker 1: thing we want to down touch on is contest selection.
- 7:20Speaker 1: There's a few contests that I think are really interesting.
- 7:22Speaker 1: The five hundred k is awesome. It's just like a
- 7:26Speaker 1: super cool torment that we don't usually see. Six hundred
- 7:29Speaker 1: dollars twenty eight Max. It's a big contest, but the
- 7:32Speaker 1: payout is fall, which I'll bring up. I really really
- 7:35Speaker 1: love the two hundred fifty dollars for Max. It lets
- 7:37Speaker 1: you build a nice little player pool with only what
- 7:40Speaker 1: fifty something guys making this miscut, making this cut. You
- 7:44Speaker 1: can only build so many lineups, you only like so
- 7:47Speaker 1: many guys, So I think a four Max is perfect
- 7:49Speaker 1: for Max entering a little contest. But the contest of
- 7:53Speaker 1: the day is the twenty K Long Drive. It is
- 7:56Speaker 1: the one hundred dollars single entry, which I will pull
- 7:59Speaker 1: up on the screen right now. So this one hundred
- 8:02Speaker 1: dollars single entry, the twenty K long drive. I love
- 8:05Speaker 1: this payout. It is three k up top and that's
- 8:08Speaker 1: three hundred dollars more to ten percent comes in at
- 8:11Speaker 1: eighteenth place. So I really do like this payout structure.
- 8:16Speaker 1: I think it's the best way to spend eight spend
- 8:18Speaker 1: one hundred dollars, gonna fill up on the quicker side,
- 8:21Speaker 1: So definitely get over there and get to this lineup,
- 8:24Speaker 1: get to this contest. I think it's the best contest
- 8:27Speaker 1: for round four. Before we get into some players, before
- 8:30Speaker 1: we get into some stats, I want to touch on
- 8:33Speaker 1: some of the information at chip A nation, which I
- 8:37Speaker 1: will bring up the banner right now. Oh it's already yup.
- 8:41Speaker 1: Use that code, Boots. You could see Scotty Scheffler was
- 8:44Speaker 1: a high leverage pivot at only seventeen percent. All you
- 8:48Speaker 1: have to do was go in the stone, see who
- 8:50Speaker 1: was highlighted, and bang you could have started your lineup
- 8:52Speaker 1: with Scotty and hopefully got on a few guys down below.
- 8:56Speaker 1: The sleigh plan from yesterday was not our best work, obviously,
- 9:00Speaker 1: we're going to talk about it when it's bad. We're
- 9:01Speaker 1: going to talk about when it's good. But sometimes the
- 9:03Speaker 1: slap plan is great. So use the slate plan, use
- 9:06Speaker 1: the Stone, and use the PGA Showdown projections, which will
- 9:10Speaker 1: be updated following this round. Code Boots gets you ten
- 9:14Speaker 1: percent off if you can build a player pool of
- 9:17Speaker 1: twelve guys, use three players from the Stone, use three
- 9:20Speaker 1: players from the slate Plan, use three players from the projections,
- 9:23Speaker 1: put them all into your sabersim and bang. You are
- 9:26Speaker 1: in for a nice little You could be in for
- 9:30Speaker 1: a nice little, nice little day, because not one of
- 9:32Speaker 1: these will ever be all correct. Get your data from
- 9:34Speaker 1: a little a few different things and ship a nation
- 9:37Speaker 1: allows you to have so many different avenues of success.
- 9:40Speaker 1: And there's even more than just this, even guys I
- 9:43Speaker 1: talk about on the show, guys that you see from
- 9:45Speaker 1: Tambo and Alix on Twitter. It is just there's so
- 9:48Speaker 1: many different avenues for success around super Nation, and we
- 9:50Speaker 1: see people, you guys listening to the show, do such
- 9:53Speaker 1: a great job dissecting information and putting it into your line,
- 9:57Speaker 1: way better than I could ever do. I'm just here, honestly,
- 10:01Speaker 1: so you guys just do such a good job at that.
- 10:04Speaker 1: So that wraps that up. The next thing I want
- 10:06Speaker 1: to do is touch on some player stats, see who
- 10:08Speaker 1: fits the bill of what we are looking for in
- 10:11Speaker 1: terms of round three. So I want to touch on
- 10:14Speaker 1: maybe three guys up top and maybe three guys down below,
- 10:18Speaker 1: and then see how these guys can potentially go to
- 10:21Speaker 1: a lineup. So I don't mind starting with Rory mclroy.
- 10:25Speaker 1: I do worry a little bit about like this, this
- 10:28Speaker 1: heavily weighted short game, heavily weighted putting. I just do
- 10:32Speaker 1: simply to trend back in the wrong direction. But Shane Lowry,
- 10:37Speaker 1: although he's not long, he is doing a lot of
- 10:40Speaker 1: things well in terms of approach, which is a massive mass.
- 10:44Speaker 1: Is Scotty going to hold this? Is Scotty gonna hold this?
- 10:47Speaker 1: Scotty Schreffler saves par On hold eighteen to get in
- 10:50Speaker 1: the house at seven under. But Shane Lowry, although he's
- 10:52Speaker 1: not long and we're looking for long, he's minting the
- 10:55Speaker 1: irons and we're seeing guys mint the irons, and the
- 10:57Speaker 1: short game is there, and he also has plenty of
- 10:59Speaker 1: room to chip in, Like we know how songs he
- 11:01Speaker 1: can get Shane can get with the iron. So I
- 11:03Speaker 1: do like Shane in that regard. A long hitter that
- 11:07Speaker 1: kind of fits the bill of what we're looking for
- 11:09Speaker 1: is not necessarily Jake Napp, I don't want to see
- 11:12Speaker 1: this approach play is not doing enough. He's had three
- 11:14Speaker 1: rounds to gain anything and he hasn't get anything. Michael Brennan.
- 11:17Speaker 1: I've been on Michael Brennan all week. He was in
- 11:20Speaker 1: the week Long Plays, and there's no reason not to
- 11:22Speaker 1: go back to Michael Brennan. He's very long. Look what
- 11:24Speaker 1: he's doing on approach and the short game is fine.
- 11:27Speaker 1: The putter is not all the way there. If Michael
- 11:29Speaker 1: Brennan has one plus one and a half cutting round
- 11:31Speaker 1: with this stat line, who knows what he could bring
- 11:34Speaker 1: to the table. So I definitely like Michael Brennan. We
- 11:38Speaker 1: played Ludvig today as our one golfer we were on,
- 11:41Speaker 1: but he just he shot three under. Not the end
- 11:43Speaker 1: of the world, but the short game is just not
- 11:46Speaker 1: coming to earth. But he's minting the irons and he's
- 11:48Speaker 1: very long as well. I love Xanders Schrothley for tomorrow.
- 11:52Speaker 1: He's sitting at T twenty right now and maybe he
- 11:54Speaker 1: finishes around T fifteen. T twelve. He can back toward
- 11:57Speaker 1: that top four like no other. And this is perfect
- 12:00Speaker 1: stat line. Great driving, he's long, great approach. Short game
- 12:04Speaker 1: is a little bit weak, putter is about average. He
- 12:06Speaker 1: is so much room to gain in those areas, and
- 12:08Speaker 1: we know he can gain in those areas, like it,
- 12:10Speaker 1: like it's his job, which it is his job. One
- 12:13Speaker 1: nice short game round from Xander and he could shoot
- 12:15Speaker 1: that sixty sixty five sixty six tomorrow. So I absolutely
- 12:18Speaker 1: love Xander Shroffley. He will be in the lineup for sure.
- 12:21Speaker 1: Who else down here is potentially doing what we want?
- 12:24Speaker 1: I don't mind Marco Penge. I could see it happening
- 12:27Speaker 1: for one rounds because once you get down down towards
- 12:30Speaker 1: the bottom, there's gonna be no stats are gonna be great.
- 12:33Speaker 1: Not everything is gonna be gonna be solid. But Marco
- 12:35Speaker 1: Penje can like he's long enough. Can he just have
- 12:37Speaker 1: an anomaly short game day? It happens every day with someone.
- 12:41Speaker 1: Could Marco Pence be that guy? Quite possibly? Quite quite possibly.
- 12:45Speaker 1: I did want to give a nod to Dustin Johnson
- 12:47Speaker 1: as like the one live guy I talk about all week,
- 12:49Speaker 1: But I cannot back the stat line at all. I
- 12:52Speaker 1: think John Ram is a better candidate if you want
- 12:54Speaker 1: to live guy. But I will not be playing any
- 12:56Speaker 1: of these live guys. One more guy down here that
- 12:59Speaker 1: we could potential go with is kurk Kadiama. He is
- 13:02Speaker 1: losing a baffling nine strokes nine strokes around the green.
- 13:09Speaker 1: That's not great. That is not great, but in the
- 13:11Speaker 1: six k range we need something to work on, and
- 13:13Speaker 1: he has the ball striking ceiling to potentially do something.
- 13:16Speaker 1: We saw what he did in round one. He started,
- 13:18Speaker 1: got off to a great start, So I don't mind
- 13:20Speaker 1: going to Kurt Kadiyama at the bottom at all. So
- 13:24Speaker 1: there's gonna be no one player that I'm on that's
- 13:27Speaker 1: not gonna happen today. I'm going to go through the
- 13:30Speaker 1: DFS lineup and I'm gonna build a lineup from scratch,
- 13:32Speaker 1: hand hand, hand selected and see what we could do.
- 13:36Speaker 1: So this is potentially six players that I am on.
- 13:39Speaker 1: Bear with me as I load up the DFS pool,
- 13:42Speaker 1: share my screen again, and let's build the Let's build
- 13:44Speaker 1: a lineup because it is Master's week. I already said
- 13:48Speaker 1: it how much I love him. I'm starting with Xander
- 13:50Speaker 1: Shrofley at ten to three. He's currently in twentieth. But
- 13:54Speaker 1: like I said, Xander Sharpley knows how to backdoor a
- 13:57Speaker 1: top five like the best players in the world, like
- 14:00Speaker 1: him and Pat, So I am starting with Xander Sharfleet.
- 14:03Speaker 1: That leaves us leaves us seven to nine. Next thing
- 14:06Speaker 1: I like to do is go towards the bottom, get
- 14:08Speaker 1: a six K guy if we need him, and let's
- 14:10Speaker 1: do Marco Pinch Marco Pencher sixty five. Could Marco Pench
- 14:13Speaker 1: have the anomaly short game day. I think it's possible.
- 14:16Speaker 1: He has the lanth off, the tee and everything else
- 14:19Speaker 1: could fall into place. I don't expect him to gain
- 14:21Speaker 1: jokes and approach. We need him to have an anomaly
- 14:24Speaker 1: short game day, which could happen. No one else is
- 14:27Speaker 1: gonna be perfect. I also want to go back to
- 14:28Speaker 1: Michael Brennan. He's been our guy all week long. Why
- 14:32Speaker 1: would we stop? And he has the profile that we're
- 14:34Speaker 1: looking for. So Xander Sharfleet Marco pren Pinge leaves us
- 14:38Speaker 1: eighty eight hundred left to build with. We can go
- 14:40Speaker 1: all the way up top and see what we want
- 14:42Speaker 1: to do now. Cameron Young currently in a tie for second.
- 14:46Speaker 1: We know he's gonna get some nice placement points. Do
- 14:48Speaker 1: I think he's gonna eject? No, he has found his
- 14:51Speaker 1: game in these last X amount of months and he's
- 14:53Speaker 1: just so confident. Cameron Young is going to fire out
- 14:56Speaker 1: flags and when he is going, we know what he
- 14:58Speaker 1: can do in the final round. We know we can
- 14:59Speaker 1: do in a single round. So Cameron Young at ninety
- 15:02Speaker 1: seven is gonna be the fourth player in the lineup.
- 15:04Speaker 1: That leaves us with eighty four left to build. We
- 15:08Speaker 1: have so much we have so much room. We could
- 15:09Speaker 1: basically do anything we want with two players in the
- 15:11Speaker 1: sixth K range. I'm gonna go with Jordan'speth. Jordan's beed
- 15:14Speaker 1: at T thirty two. If he shoots a sixty seven
- 15:17Speaker 1: sixty six not out of the question, that could be
- 15:21Speaker 1: enough for a top ten. That leaves us eighty three
- 15:23Speaker 1: hundred dollars. I think we need to go towards the
- 15:26Speaker 1: top as much as possible, and I'm gonna go with
- 15:29Speaker 1: Sam Burns. Sam Burns seventy eight hundred dollars. He's a
- 15:32Speaker 1: golfer who answers the questions very long off the tee,
- 15:36Speaker 1: has the spike approach. When it's going it's obviously going away.
- 15:39Speaker 1: This week and a great short game. He's currently in fifth.
- 15:42Speaker 1: He's gonna be in one of the final groups tomorrow
- 15:44Speaker 1: as long as today goes well. But even if he
- 15:46Speaker 1: shoots seventy four, he's gonna be he won't be too
- 15:48Speaker 1: far from the top ten and could easily have another
- 15:50Speaker 1: round tomorrow to get that sixth place finish. So I
- 15:53Speaker 1: love this way to build a Round four Showdown lineup
- 15:58Speaker 1: because you're you're kind of fading away from the top ten,
- 16:02Speaker 1: but you're built. You're positioning yourself to have guys finish
- 16:06Speaker 1: inside the top ten, which is all that matters. And
- 16:08Speaker 1: I think the way the weather sets up for tomorrow,
- 16:11Speaker 1: guys starting outside the top fifteen top twenty is going
- 16:14Speaker 1: to go a long way with the weather get rid
- 16:17Speaker 1: of that top ten pressure from some of the guys
- 16:18Speaker 1: who might not might not be the ones you want
- 16:21Speaker 1: with that pressure. So that is the lineup. Those are
- 16:24Speaker 1: potentially six golfers on them on Tune in to the
- 16:28Speaker 1: site in the next few hours where the slate plan
- 16:30Speaker 1: will be up when you can get the official plays.
- 16:32Speaker 1: As always, song of the Day for Round four Showdown
- 16:36Speaker 1: go check out the playlist. Drag the Lake by Amity
- 16:39Speaker 1: Affliction and all all out bound, so check that out.
- 16:43Speaker 1: Any questions you do, know where to find me, and
- 16:46Speaker 1: as always, let's hip it. Kitch you guys soon peace out.
- 17:02Speaker 1: The most hands, hands, disused hands still rend him