Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 299 - 6/16/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 299 - 6/16/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:17
Hello, and welcome to episode 299 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:23
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:26
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Monday, a new week begins. Hope everyone had a fantastic
0:39
weekend. Hope everyone had a great
0:41
Father's Day. I had a great weekend, guys,
0:44
because as I mentioned to you guys before, I went down to
0:47
Jersey and New York City to visit my sister and her family
0:51
and had a great time. And the highlight of the trip,
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as you guys know, was having dinner at Holston's, which of
0:58
course, if you don't know, that's where the final scene of
1:01
The Sopranos was filmed. Was Tony shot?
1:03
Did did Tony live? Well guess what, we had dinner
1:07
together. I must say, getting burgers,
1:09
diner food, it was cheap. It was not an expense, a very
1:12
expensive dinner, but I felt the vibes of Tony, his presence had
1:17
a great root beer float, which I haven't had and I don't even
1:19
know 2 decades. It was a great time, kind of a
1:22
hole in the wall in Bloomfield, NJ.
1:25
But I finally got to do a bucket list thing for me, which was
1:27
again, going to the scene of the crime or maybe where Tony lived
1:32
forever. But it was a great time.
1:34
And again, they had all the different Sopranos photos on the
1:36
wall, all the servers, you know who take your order, they're
1:39
wearing shirts and Holstens is kind of it's a logo based on The
1:43
Sopranos logo with like the gun as the H and Holstens.
1:46
So it was really just an incredible time.
1:48
I had a blast. Also went into New York City, we
1:51
had a great time meeting up with some friends and bopping around
1:54
and going to Central Park. They also called a show which
1:57
was great and then came back yesterday picked up the pup who
2:01
shout out to my mother-in-law who took care of the dog all
2:03
weekend. But it was really just a a great
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weekend overall guys, hope everyone had a great Father's
2:08
Day. The only negative I would say as
2:10
a Red Sox fan is that as I'm driving back from New York City
2:15
back to Massachusetts, which by the way, luckily every state I
2:18
was in drove through Connecticut, stayed in Jersey,
2:21
went to New York City, picked up the dog in New Hampshire.
2:24
Every state was a legal sports betting state.
2:26
So I got to had to place my bets through the you know, the
2:28
specific app for that state, which is a little bit annoying,
2:31
but just goes to show every state should be legal in my
2:34
opinion. We're 39 States and counting
2:36
here. But as I'm driving back, we pick
2:39
up my my pop finally going back to our house and then on the
2:43
radio I hear breaking news. The Red Sox have traded Rafael
2:48
Devers unbelievable guys. The return to me didn't seem
2:52
great. Couple pictures with scrub he
2:54
high ER as the first round pick but the Giants took the whole
2:58
contract and I can just say as a Red Sox fan, I'm surprised they
3:01
traded him. But again, there were some tea
3:03
leaves along the way. Devers refused to play first
3:05
base. Devers called out the GM.
3:08
It's been an issue in the clubhouse and I think it's just
3:11
a salary dump. They wanted to get out from
3:12
underneath the 250 million plus owed to Devers.
3:15
So as a Red Sox fan and over 85 1/2 win total better.
3:19
I don't like the deal but I guess I understand why it
3:22
happened. But again, if he just played
3:24
first, none of this would have taken place.
3:26
Anyway. Guys, I do want to mention as
3:28
well, shout out to those of you who do sign up and get the all
3:32
systems go Best bet picks on the Juice Reel app or read the sharp
3:35
reports that are right for visa.com because it was a nice
3:38
weekend. 5 and 1 + 2.5 units sweep on Saturday with the
3:43
Mariners, the D backs and the Phillies coming through.
3:46
D backs were actually down five runs or four runs in the ninth
3:48
and came back and won, and then a two in one yesterday with the
3:52
Brewers and the Houston Astros coming through.
3:54
So as always, if you'd like to support the pod, get the plays
3:57
on the weekend. When we don't have podcast, you
3:59
can always get the best bets officially and exclusively on
4:02
the Juice Reel app for $4.99 a week.
4:06
Again, basically a dollar a pod or less than a dollar a day.
4:09
I don't really think of it as selling picks because that's got
4:12
a bad connotation. I look at it as you're
4:14
supporting the pod, if you enjoy the insights again, you can pass
4:19
the hat with a tip jar and throw a $5.00 bill in there.
4:22
Anyway, guys, with all that being said, a little bit of a
4:25
preamble there as we get back into the the swing of things.
4:28
I do a three pack of Major League Baseball plays for you.
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I know there's an NBA Finals game.
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There's actually a big WNBA day tomorrow and there's actually
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one game I'm thinking might be my first place.
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We'll stay tuned with that. And obviously we do have Stanley
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Cup Finals. Do the Florida Panthers close it
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out tomorrow? And they have had some line
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movement for tomorrow. I think they're like -140 up to
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-150 But as always guys, even though it's a smaller than usual
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slate, only seven games overall today I got 3 plays.
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Let's try to eke out a winning day and go 2:00 and 1:00.
4:57
So that being said, let's waste no time and get rid into our
5:00
plays here for tonight. Now I mentioned Devers getting
5:03
traded. Well guess what?
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Just so happens Red Sox play without Devers tonight in
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Seattle and I got to play on this game.
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So this is a 9:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
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We have the Red Sox. And again, the timing of the
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Devers trade. Let me just say I'm, I'm a Red
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Sox fan, you know I am, or if you don't, born and raised in
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Massachusetts, you know, again, broke the curse of my dad as a
5:22
17 year old in college. So in our 17 year old in high
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school. But the timing of the Devers
5:28
deal was weird too, because the Sox who have been up and down
5:30
and struggled all year, they've won 8 of 10.
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They sweep the Yankees, then you trade him that day.
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So anyway, Devers is gone. Nothing we can do about he's now
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a San Francisco Giant. But setting the stage, the Red
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Sox 37 and 36. Finally a game above 500 just
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swept the Yankees, won that series finale yesterday, 2 to
5:47
nothing as a juicy plus 155 home dog.
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Meanwhile, the Mariners, 36 and 34, also a little bit hot here,
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just swept the Guardians at home.
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They won 6 to nothing yesterday as a -, 120 home favorite.
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So pitching match up here for tonight.
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The Red Sox are going to go with the ready Lucas G Alito.
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He's two in one with a 5.45 ERA. You know, all the Mariners are
6:08
going to go with the ready Logan Gilbert.
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He's one and one with a 2.37 ERA coming off the injured list.
6:14
So what have you seen across the market here?
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Well, nothing but movement against Boston and in favor of
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Seattle. I'm a Sox fan.
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I'm annoyed by the Devers trade, even though I did kind of think
6:25
he was being a jerk and being selfish, not being a team
6:27
player. But anyway, I'm betting against
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the Sox tonight. And the whole X Factor of, you
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know, is this drama, is this, you know, kind of a situation to
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bet against Boston. It looks like the sharps are
6:37
agreeing that it is because the Seattle Mariners open this game
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around a -, 160 -, 165 home favorite.
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And we've now seen the Mariners get steamed up to -175 across
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the market. And actually if you've been
6:49
tracking this line, which I know you do using your Odds logic
6:53
live odds page, remember Odds logic.com/josh 123 for a 7 day
6:58
free trial and 50% off your first month.
7:00
But this line actually got up as high as to -190 earlier today in
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favor of Seattle, at which point you did see a little buyback
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dropping the sign back to around -175 at this point, but open to
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current. All movement has been in favor
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of Seattle. Now, if you look at the bet
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splits here look pretty good on the Mariners at DraftKings.
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They're only getting a little more than half the tickets, but
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nearly three out of $4.00. So good low bets, higher dollars
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split in favor of the Mariners. Also, some system matches on the
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Mariners Monday, home favorites with a line move in their
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direction. They're 30 and 16 this year,
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65%, four percent ROI. If you are a big favorite at
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home -170 or more in the opening game of a new series, those
7:41
teams are 60 and 1976% with an 11% ROI.
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When both teams are coming off a win, which is the case here.
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Red Sox beat the Yankees, Seattle beat the Guardians
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yesterday, and that situation take the home favorite.
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That system is 35 and 1669% with a 12% ROI and then also non
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division home favorites off a win getting steam $0.05 or more
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in their favor. They're one O 5 and 5466% with a
8:08
4% ROI. And a lot of these matches here
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also are just non division matches.
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Lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
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Seattle has some correlative betting as well, because we have
8:19
a kind of a bigger favorite here with Seattle and a very low
8:22
total game. The total was 7 1/2 down to
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seven. So the fair amount of expected
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run scored more likely to come from quote UN quote that better
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team. The Mariners are 19 and 17 at
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home. Red Sox only 15 and 19 on the
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road. It's a little bit of home Rd.
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splits there. And again, no Devers guy was
8:39
hitting 272 as much as he was a jerk, hitting 27215 homers, 58
8:44
RBI is having a career year. And now you take that big bat
8:47
out of the lineup. So you had it all up here, guys.
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Again, maybe this is a bet against the Red Sox because of
8:53
the the the pressure, the saga, the drama of the Devers trade.
8:57
Or maybe it's just hey, wise guys like this spot with this
9:00
line move in favor of Seattle. Lastly, I will mention 25% or
9:05
sorry, 14 percent. 25% is for the next play.
9:08
I'm going to talk about 14% sharp mush edge in favor of
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Seattle on the Juice Reel app tells me the bigger, sharper
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betters on Juice Reel are with us here in favor of Seattle.
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So give me the Mariners guys. You might be able to shop around
9:21
and find a -, 170. I got Seattle here at -175 next
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step for you, 10 O 5:00 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
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Let's look at the Houston Astros visiting the Athletics, not the
9:34
Oakland A's. I guess they're technically the
9:36
Sacramento A's before they become the Vegas A's.
9:39
But anyway, let's set the stage for this one.
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We have the Astros coming in 41 and 30 on the year.
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Just swept the Twins. They won that series finale
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yesterday, 2 to one as a -, 120 home favorite.
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Similarly, we got the A's 29 and 44.
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They just swept the Royals in KC Got a tip the hat there.
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That was surprising. 1/3 to 2 yesterday as a + 125 Rd. dog.
10:01
So in tonight's series opener of the Astros going with the ready
10:04
Lance Mccullers, he's one and two 4.91 ERA.
10:07
The A's, meanwhile, are going to go with the ready Mitch Spence.
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He's two and one with a 3.67 team ERA.
10:14
And what have we seen across the market here?
10:16
Well, this game opened with the Houston Astros listed around a
10:20
-, 150 -, 155 Rd. favorite. The A's around A + 130 home dog.
10:26
And this line move has kind of been all over the place.
10:28
So earlier in the day, we saw this line really shoot up toward
10:31
Houston. There's actually a bit of a
10:33
delay because we didn't really know who's going to pitch for
10:35
the A's at one point. Looks like it might have been JP
10:37
Sears. But we saw that early line move
10:40
go toward Astros. Astros got steamed up as high as
10:43
-160 Now I am starting to see a little bit of buyback here.
10:46
I'm seeing some shops now get down to around Houston like -145
10:50
but I'm going to dance with the one who brung me.
10:52
I'm going to stick with Houston in this box.
10:54
I do have a couple other great kind of advantages, hopefully in
10:57
favor of the Astros. So again, shot up to the A's or
11:01
shot up to the Astros, come back down a little bit.
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Again, you can shop around and now find Houston if you want to
11:05
play them around -145 -, 150. But in terms of the bet splits,
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if you look at DraftKings, about 2/3 of bets in dollars are on
11:13
Houston. So it's kind of pro and Joe on
11:15
the Astros at Circa, over 90% of money line bets in dollars are
11:19
on the Astros. So pretty good pro and Joe split
11:23
there as well out in Vegas. If both teams are coming off a
11:26
win, take the favorite who's -150 or more.
11:29
I know that's maybe technically not matching because some books
11:31
are a little less than -150 Now that system this year is 20 and
11:36
871 percent, 7% ROI. If you look at Mccullers, he has
11:41
a 3.27 ERA in two June starts. He struggled quite a bit and
11:45
actually got death threats from idiot gamblers.
11:48
Don't do this. If you lose, don't find the guy
11:50
and tweet him and make you know dangerous comments to him.
11:54
Don't be an idiot, don't be a loser, but there's a big
11:56
kerfuffle about that earlier this year.
11:58
It looks like you settled down a bit again cuz ERA is 3.27 and
12:02
two June starts. He's only giving up four runs in
12:05
11 innings pitch he's actual pitch actually pitched pretty
12:07
well on the road 1 and O ERA of 0 Spence Meanwhile, 1 in one ERA
12:12
of over six at home this season. So I kind of want to back
12:15
Mccullers throwing the ball well and fade Spence who's really
12:18
struggled at home. Also, you look at the bullpen
12:22
here, this becomes a bullpen game and we got to sweat this
12:24
one. You know, late innings, close
12:26
game one, one run, one run game. Hopefully the Houston Astros pen
12:30
can lock it down because they have a team area of 3.19.
12:33
That's the fifth best in baseball.
12:35
Athletics. Meanwhile, 5.98 team area,
12:38
nearly six, that's dead last. Astros are two and O against the
12:42
A's this year, and kind of a weird one, but I look at day and
12:46
night games just to see if there's a discrepancy.
12:48
Well, Houston's been pretty good at night.
12:50
At night, 25 and 21. The A's only 17 and 28 at home.
12:56
So add it all up here, guys. Again, I know it's starting to
12:58
come back down a little bit toward the A's.
13:00
I'm going to dance with who brung me and stick with the
13:02
Astros here. So maybe I got kind of a bad
13:04
-150 again because some shops are closer to -140 But one
13:08
little consolation prize. I kind of hinted at it earlier,
13:11
but there is a 25% sharp mush edge on the Astros.
13:15
So a little bit more of the sharper winning players are
13:17
going Stroh's as opposed to the losing or profit deficient
13:21
betters, as we should say, leaning more toward the A's.
13:24
So I don't know up here, guys, I'm going to Houston.
13:26
Let's see if we can escape with a win here around -150 Last bit
13:30
of the night, Shohei Otani's return to the Mount, 10:10 PM.
13:35
Eastern Time, first pitch the San Diego Padres visiting the
13:38
aforementioned LA Dodgers. Now Padres come into this 139
13:43
and 31 on the year. Just dropped two or three
13:45
against the D Backs did avoid the sweep, though.
13:48
They won 8 to 2 yesterday as a + 110 Rd. dog.
13:51
On the other hand, the Dodgers, 43 and 29, just took two or
13:54
three against the Giants. They won five to four yesterday
13:58
as a -, 195 home favorite. So pitch a match up for this
14:02
one. Dylan Cease, the righty, is
14:04
going to go for the pods. He's two and five with a 4.28
14:07
ERA. Dodgers meanwhile, are going to
14:09
start Otani, who's making his debut and he last pitched in the
14:13
year 2023 with the Angels. He went ten and five with a 3.14
14:18
ERA. So have you seen across the
14:20
market for this one? Well, I'm not betting Otani and
14:23
the Dodgers just because they're Otani and the Dodgers.
14:25
I'm betting them because they look a little bit sharp to me
14:28
tonight. I got the Dodgers in this one
14:29
guys. They open this game around a -.
14:32
145 home favorite and the San Diego Padres are on a + 125 Rd.
14:37
dog. We've now seen the Dodgers get
14:40
steamed up to -150 or even -155 across the market, so I jumped
14:45
on dodgers -150 at Bet MGM. I like the splits at DraftKings.
14:50
77% bets, 84% dollars. So good.
14:53
Low bets, higher dollars. Sharp Pro and Joe split in favor
14:56
of the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. And then I have a lot of system
15:00
matches. I actually have 7 systems lit up
15:02
on the Dodgers, so here's just a few of them.
15:05
If you'll get home favorites off a win with a winning record and
15:08
a line move in their direction. They're 111 and 5866%, four
15:12
percent ROI this year. Home favorites of the line move
15:15
in their favor who made the playoffs the previous year.
15:18
They're 150 and 7367 percent, 7% ROI.
15:23
Home favorites made the playoffs the previous year.
15:26
Playing opponent who also made the playoffs the previous year.
15:29
69 and 3765 percent, 10% ROI. Both teams coming off a win, the
15:35
home favorite is 35 and 1669% with a 12% ROI.
15:40
And Monday, home favorites of the line move in their
15:42
direction, 30 and 1665% with a 4% ROI.
15:46
So a lot of good system matches lighting up here on the Dodgers.
15:51
Now Dodgers bats can hope they come to life tonight and get to
15:54
Cease. Dodgers are hitting 264 on the
15:56
year, 112 homers, 399 runs scored.
16:01
Padres are hitting 249 with only 60 homers and 295 runs scored.
16:06
LA, by the way, is also hitting 278 at home this year.
16:09
That's the best batting average of any home team.
16:12
Cease, by the way. O and 3 ERA of 5.65 on the road.
16:16
So on the road tonight against Lai, want to fade him?
16:19
And also just classic home Rd. splits.
16:22
Padres are only 18 and 19 on the road, Dodgers 25 and 12 at home.
16:26
One of the better home records in baseball.
16:29
So you had it all up here, guys. Ohtani probably only going to go
16:31
about an inning or maybe 2. But we got a good line move, a
16:35
ton of system matches. I'm going to lay it with the
16:37
Dodgers hopefully, maybe getting some juice with Ohtani coming
16:40
back as well. And again, hopefully he stays in
16:43
the whole game and hits as well, even if he comes out after an
16:46
inning of pitching. But I got the Dodgers in this 1
16:48
-, 150 at Bet MGM. So Mariners, Astros, Dodgers,
16:54
can we find a way to get two out of three of those?
16:56
Go 2:00 and 1:00. You got a winning day.
16:58
That of course is always the goal.
17:00
So that about does it for episode 299 of the All Systems
17:04
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
17:07
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
17:09
And as always, I start first by saying thank you.
17:12
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
17:15
busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
17:18
sharp data-driven breakdowns with me.
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If you do enjoy the pod and you want to help me grow this
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podcast, could you do me a solid by giving it a five star review
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on Spotify or iTunes? Go a long way to again, helping
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If you want to click the follow button that way you get alerted
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review section or recommend the pod to a friend, I would also
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very much appreciate that as well.
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Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
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sharp contrarian betting. People are always like, hey, who
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do you like to? I say I like whoever's sharp.
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I like whoever's matching my systems.
18:02
Well, if you've now learned to bet not based on bias and gut
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instinct, but based on what the market is telling you, following
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sharp action, taking a contrarian approach, being
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disciplined with your bankroll management, leaning on betting
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systems. If this style has appealed to
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you and you want to learn more about data-driven betting or you
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know someone who could use a few data-driven tips or you just
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That's my next book. It comes out August 12th.
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Cannot wait for you guys to check it out.
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We're now less than two months away, which is crazy.
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I'll sign them for you and I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
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We'll sweat some baseball games together next.
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Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
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20:42
hopefully making sharp data-driven plays.
20:45
Lastly, do you have a live odds page?
20:47
Well, I mentioned it before, but you got to give odds logic a
20:50
shot. I partner with odds logic.
20:52
I'm a big believer in odds logic and hope you guys know I would
20:56
never recommend something that I myself don't use and see value
20:59
in. And I really see a lot of value
21:01
in odds logic cuz it's a clean, crisp interface.
21:03
It's got all the different sports books you need,
21:05
especially the market setting ones.
21:07
You can track the first, you know, kind of steam to hit the
21:09
market at a book like pinnacle or Chris or circa or bet online.
21:14
And then also you can again see which direction the line is
21:16
moved, identify steam. The whole board lights up in red
21:19
as soon as any odds change and you can of course get the best
21:22
price. Pull up the line history and
21:25
you'll be off and running again tracking the market.
21:27
So give odds logic a shot. I've been looking for a time to
21:30
do it. Now is a great time with
21:32
baseball. A lot of games every day and you
21:34
can use it for the postseason as well.
21:36
For NBA and NHL and WNBA they have that as well on the
21:40
basketball tab. But give it a shot. 7 day free
21:43
trial and then 50% off your first month.
21:44
Just go to oddslogic.com/josh 123 so that about dozen guys
21:51
another pot in the books. As always, I'll leave you with a
21:53
couple things. One, whether I see you at the
21:55
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
21:57
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
22:00
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
22:03
Casino or MGM Springfield and the Nash Nashville, New
22:06
Hampshire in my neck of the woods and the outskirts of
22:08
Boston. Or of course, out in the desert
22:10
where the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
22:13
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
22:16
Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
22:18
stadium swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
22:21
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
22:23
You're going to show me some nice MLB tickets from this
22:26
weekend from Saturday Mariners, D backs, Phillies from Sunday,
22:30
Brewers, Astros. Guess what guys?
22:32
First one's on me, next one's on you.
22:34
We'll I'll post about the book. So that's some sharp games here
22:37
together. So that about does it everybody.
22:39
As always, I'll leave you with the final thought.
22:42
Whether we're five and one on the weekend or Owen or, you
22:45
know, O and six, one and five, you know, 2 and 3, three and
22:49
two, four and one, whatever, I'm getting my combination mixed up
22:52
there. But you get the point.
22:54
Good week, bad week, good day, bad day, hot, cold, somewhere in
22:57
the middle. This is the part of the industry
23:00
that we got to deal with the volatility.
23:02
We all want to just win every day and just, you know, make a
23:04
ton of money. But the reality is it's a very
23:06
challenging business that we're in.
23:08
And I think that also is what makes it rewarding when you can
23:11
grind out a profit. So as always, guys, hot, cold,
23:14
somewhere in the middle. We keep grinding, keep sticking
23:16
to the model in the blueprint and you guys know it by now.
23:19
That model and blueprint is maybe complex, but we can
23:21
simplify it by by calling it this.
23:24
Look for that sweet spot against the public with the house, with
23:27
the pros flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing line
23:30
value. If we can do that, guess what
23:32
we're going to be successful sports betters long term.
23:35
So have a great Monday, everybody.
23:37
Great to be back and guess what we will hopefully grind out
23:41
couple winners here on the MLB diamond 3 plays.
23:43
Let's try to get two of two of them and regardless, win, lose
23:47
or draw, we'll be right back at it tomorrow, getting right back
23:50
in the arena. That'll be a big Tuesday edition
23:53
of the all systems go sports betting podcast episode 300 for
23:56
tomorrow. Big, big round 300 and I'll see
24:00
you guys there. So good luck, have a great
24:01
night, and let's get some winners on the diamond.